00:06:50.900But I'm in there with Marist and the others.
00:06:53.560So I do expect the error to be a little bit less this time.
00:06:55.860I think people got to understand this.
00:06:56.980Talk to me about historically, one of the reasons they were so off and that the the networks and others said, hey, we're embarrassing ourselves.
00:07:04.920They start to add people who knew how to pull MAGA better.
00:07:08.740That would be Trafalgar, yourself, the people's pundit.
00:07:11.480Who else did they put into the averages?
00:07:13.960I mean, you got people like Qantas and Mark Mitchell.
00:07:20.640It's actually our first year in real clear politics.
00:07:23.260And that's why you've seen others like D.D.H.Q.
00:07:26.480We've been in there for a long time, but it was always it was it looked better for Trump in 24, Steve, in DDHQ than everywhere else.
00:07:34.580And that's because they had MAGA pollsters in there, people who understood how to reach these people and how to how to properly represent them.
00:07:42.380So these races will be very, very close.
00:07:45.100The one thing that does concern me, and that's why, you know, it's always it's irresistible to look at early vote.
00:07:50.240It really is. Every year I warn people and so do others.
00:07:53.160don't over interpret it but we have good states where there are baselines that's the biggest
00:07:58.420problem with early vote it'll tell us whether or not pollsters are likely you know they're likely
00:08:02.440voter models are off um there's a couple of good states like nevada and arizona which is why i
00:08:07.860wanted to get into them and andrew did a great job with arizona but there's a reason but hey
00:08:12.860i want you to go to i want you to go to arizona i want to go over arizona again and i want to go
00:08:19.260of Nevada, because this is very important for also the motivation of people to say, hey, look,
00:08:25.380this may not be crazy talk. This is not pie in the sky. I'm not being promoted. It really may be
00:08:29.780worth my effort, not just to go out there, but to put the list together, 10 people, or maybe even
00:08:34.640sign up and go knock on a few doors is what we need right now. So Richard Barris, talk to us
00:08:39.060about when you're seeing the math out of Arizona and Nevada, what's it telling you? Yeah, let me
00:08:43.660start with Nevada. And let me just say, this is why, you know, you need both. And we're just
00:08:48.700saying this and that's true you need ads on the airways covering you you know it's like uh it's
00:08:53.160like almost like war steve i hate to use that analogy and the left will go nuts and clip me
00:08:56.440and put me on media for it but you need air support for sure but you also need signal on
00:09:02.000the ground you need signal and infrastructure on the ground and nevada and arizona both are
00:09:08.200standing out because they did this there was meaningful permit there was a meaningful effort
00:09:13.960to install a permanent get out the vote and we can just see it making a huge difference in nevada
00:09:19.460we got about a little over 8 000 new ballots updated last night which puts us statewide at
00:09:24.360about 44 000 okay uh that's maybe like three and a half percent of what we expect totally early
00:09:29.800republicans overall are almost just under 34 of all of that all right and stick with me because
00:09:36.400i'm going to tell you where it's coming from which is which is really that's the story republic
00:09:40.180Democrats are only 37, a little over 37.
00:10:01.260Overall, if you look back to where they were as far in Clark County, how much of a share of the overall early vote they were, Republicans alone, their peak in 2024 was 27.2%.
00:10:15.760The peak is now, because they keep beating it every day, it's 31.2%.
00:10:21.000So the GOP is running significantly ahead overall as a share of the electorate.
00:10:27.000And again, that's not just the private groups, groups like Andrews and others.
00:10:52.860I'm trying to tell people this pays off.
00:10:55.100It's also why Arizona, going back to Andrew State, primary voting was not good for Republican, and primary voting is predictive, except in Arizona, and Texas wasn't terrible, and that's why I'm looking forward to getting Texas, because if Texas looks more like Arizona and Nevada, then Paxton will be all right.
00:11:14.460It'll still be close and go and vote, but he'll be all right, because it'll tell us that what Harry was just talking about is going to happen.
00:11:23.540hang on two point i want to i want to go i want to go back because michigan is breaking the
00:11:29.260narrative uh because all these radicals i think are scaring people off or at least some people
00:11:34.340but also go back to clark county hit rewind a second you're saying it's incredible majority
00:11:40.660non-white districts are actually showing that breaks the entire narrative of what we're being
00:11:46.780sold by the legacy media right now walk me through that again and what you're seeing out of clark
00:11:50.720county so if you look at clark county and you look at the neighborhoods for instance that have
00:11:54.940highest latino shares right and looking at like just under 200 precincts in the county
00:11:59.780the republicans are actually returning ballots at a rate of like 27 percent higher compared to the
00:12:06.500rest um blacks as well black neighborhoods the same thing actually that's higher than hispanics
00:12:11.300is about 32 percent more than democrats uh so what does that mean it means they're running the
00:12:16.500strongest in the neighborhoods that most pollsters and i'm telling you they're not gonna they're not
00:12:21.980gonna think this is real uh it is real i mean we have numbers actual real numbers now so what i'm
00:12:28.220look what does it tell me and as somebody who obviously leans to the right i'm hoping this
00:12:33.220happens monday in texas and we're gonna find out but there are a couple of test cases you look at
00:12:38.740like new jersey virginia where republicans did not do well with hispanics and the narrative that
00:12:44.220media narrative you're talking about is that Republicans slid badly nationally with Hispanics.
00:12:49.600Well, that may not be the case in some of these states where Republicans have early vote
00:12:54.420infrastructure, which is huge. And Republicans will vote in person early. Democrats are embracing
00:12:59.960that this year. Every year, early vote gets a little bit different, which is why I always tell
00:13:03.900people to be careful about over-interpreting it. Early voting method is learned behavior. Parties
00:13:09.920teach their voters how they want them to vote and each year it changes so democrats were all in on
00:13:17.380mail-in balloting during the era of covid they have pivoted now to in person so texas is going
00:13:23.100to give us a really good idea like pound for pound what's going on um it's a look why it's
00:13:29.140gives this is good and gives republicans bright spots around the map to look and say hey wait a
00:13:35.420minute maybe it is going to be there will be polling misses at least in some parts of the
00:13:39.820country and that's that's all they need steve that's all they need that's what a senate is it's
00:13:44.420not a national election this is like uh you know the presidential cycle where you're dealing with
00:13:48.820an electoral college math how do i get to 270 with the senate it's cyclical and republicans have a
00:13:55.020good the fundamentals in a lot of these states work in their favor so andrew what did he say
00:14:00.040three to five points that's true if you if you say they're good for three you beat the average
00:16:48.420Barris, I just want to make sure, once again, you, Mark Mitchell, Trafalgar, all the MAGA kind of people who know how to poll MAGA are now included in these averages, real clear politics.
00:17:45.540I mean, I've been doing this dance with them for over a decade now.
00:17:48.720In 2018, in 2022, these guys all overestimated the Democratic margin.
00:17:54.480And here's the key, because I got Democratic polls to their friends.
00:17:58.080They have PTSD over this, because what has happened with these misses is that they're not missing the Democrat vote share.
00:18:05.040They got it within a point or two all the time during these misses.
00:18:08.600What they miss is the Republican vote share. They're undercounting Republicans.
00:18:13.440So all these Democratic pollsters are sitting there biting their nails still because they know that most of these candidates are not at 50.
00:18:20.660Tallarico is nowhere near 50. And I had a Democratic pollster friend try to lay his case about how Tallarico was going to do this out to me.
00:18:28.140And that includes the libertarian taking from Paxton.
00:18:31.180So this is why it's all about turnout, because Paxton just simply needs those Republicans to turn out.
00:18:38.600Real quick, about looking at turnout, at one time you were pretty negative, given the war, the Israeli situation, the economy, young men.
00:18:45.980You were fairly negative on things, and particularly like even over Labor Day weekend, you could see potentially mathematically a tsunami or a wave unless people woke up.
00:18:57.940Where does Richard Barris, the people's opponent, on this midterm, what are you feeling right now?
00:19:02.840Yeah, it's still a massive hill to climb, so I don't want to give people the wrong impression.
00:19:06.380but there is a path to hold the Senate if you have to vote at a rate that overtakes the defections
00:19:13.440because there are defections in these states, right? That's just true. One of them who doesn't
00:19:17.880have it, by the way, is Mike Rogers in Michigan. And what do I mean by defections? People who
00:19:21.880voted for Trump in 24 who were going to either defect and vote for Libertarians because they're
00:19:26.740mad. But these, I mean, people who will come out, they'll either do that or some of them will even
00:19:32.340vote democratic we see all over moreno had defections in 24 when he was on the ballot with
00:19:37.840trump how did he win he he didn't win by 13 and a half like trump did he won by three and a half
00:19:43.060he did because turnout was so high that it didn't matter you overcame those defections by
00:19:48.580just keep continuing to add to the total amount of vote if you have a lower margin you continue
00:19:53.740to add with higher turnout you'll overtake it um so republicans need to do that to overtake the
00:19:59.060affections. And they have to also deal with, you know, again, there are third party candidates on
00:20:04.520a lot of these in a lot of these states, Steve. So again, though, Iowa, Ohio, when you look at
00:20:09.600these, I'm more bullish on it. There is a path. It's a narrow one, but it can be done. And narrow
00:20:14.960rocky path. Yeah, I should put them stuff and you have your show every day. People need to tune into
00:20:21.280it. Where do they go for all your content in the run up to this midterm, sir? We're everywhere on
00:20:26.320and on gram at peoples underscore pundit at peoples pundit on truth and getter of course
00:20:31.760the best place to interact is on locals peoples pundit.locals.com and go buy burn it down go get
00:20:38.320the book most important where people get the book burn it all down where do people get the book
00:20:42.320amazon simon and schuster yeah everywhere books are sold folks uh amazon barnes and nobles books
00:20:48.020a million you go get it from your favorite book look this is an the debate as soon as this election
00:20:53.120is over everyone's going to start talking about okay we're going into 28 what's the path to the
00:20:57.460biggest coalition there's only two paths we're going down steve maga or mom donnie that's it
00:21:02.340so we yes this has to be but that's why we're that's where in texas talking to the texas young
00:21:07.400republicans the young republicans of texas sir thank you so much appreciate all the best
00:21:11.360all the best brother there's a disturbing uh actual revelation in this uh texas railroad
00:21:18.540commission which i happen to think is the most important race in the nation with both french
00:21:22.560Carlos Teresos joins us now, an investigative reporter for the Dallas Express.
00:21:27.820Carlos, if we can get the story up, this story is pretty shocking about the Democrat.
00:21:32.620We talk about these radical Democrats you've seen in Michigan, other places,
00:21:36.080the people finally focusing on what in the hell is going on.
00:21:38.480Talk to me about Texas and the Texas Railroad Commission, the Democratic candidate, sir.
00:21:44.880Yes, well, I appreciate you inviting me to your show, Steve.
00:21:47.980So what's happening with the Railroad Commissioner's race is that, you know, John Rosenthal, who's running against Beau French, he actually was following some accounts in Blue Sky.
00:21:59.500And the two accounts that he's following are accounts that are promoting transgender materials, one of which actually has a OnlyFans and a Fansly account.
00:22:08.900So when we actually investigated that account, you could actually see basically, you know, sexual materials being posted on that Blue Sky account.0.63
00:22:20.000And what's even more concerning and I would say just bizarre is that, you know, John, after we did the publication and we did the article and Beau French blasted him, he unfollowed the pornographic account that he was following on X, which was straight pornography.0.87
00:22:38.080but he did not unfollow the transgender accounts in Blue Sky.
00:22:43.320John Rosenthal is someone that has had controversy for many years.
00:22:47.860I will say that back in 2023, he voted against House Bill 900,
00:23:21.460And frankly, all of these statewide candidates
00:23:24.080from the Democrat camp, they're not moderates whatsoever,
00:23:27.360even though they're trying to pretend to be moderate,
00:23:29.400such as Gina Hedahosa and James Tallarico.
00:23:32.020If you go back to 2025 and 2023 and even before that and look at their voting records, you'll actually see a pattern that is the fact that they have always voted to protect, you know, transgender ideology in schools, to protect transgenderism, to support abortion on demand.
00:23:50.580They've always been in support of open borders, even though right now they're a little bit distant from that.
00:23:55.980So, unfortunately, you know, even though they have a very horrendous progressive record, the turnout, I will say, will be key in the state of Texas when it comes to this November election.
00:24:09.480People like to say that Texas is going to be turning blue.
00:24:12.440I think the only way the state is going to be in trouble is if Republicans don't turn out.
00:24:17.340And one thing that I will be paying close attention to is the moderate side of the Republican Party.
00:24:23.540You have people like John Cornyn, Karl Rove, people that are part of that moderate camp that are going online and going to the media and saying that they're not going to vote for Beau French.
00:24:34.640They're not going to be voting for Ken Paxton, saying that they're too radical.
00:24:39.380And I will be paying close attention to that camp because even though they are in the minority in the GOP, the question is how much damage will that ultimately create for the November election?
00:24:52.240uh real quickly tell me about that dallas express i want people to go to the dallas express you guys
00:24:58.300put up great stories all day long investigative reports you're a new voice that the the media
00:25:03.380down in texas have been horrible to the left where do people go get the dallas express and
00:25:07.820where they follow you on twitter because you're putting up fairly provocative things every day
00:25:12.160and i want people to follow it sir yeah so people can follow me on twitter if they type in you know
00:25:51.020We provide an alternative platform for many Texans and also just people across the country to actually see what's going on, to see what's going on with our schools, to see what's going on with our local government officials.
00:26:04.960We even broke that story about the Muslim principal that was ultimately reassigned.
00:26:10.200She lost that position back in May because she was posting Sharia law, BLM content on her Facebook.0.93
00:26:15.240So we do that. And of course, investigative journalism is the key to holding accountable our elected officials and especially the left.0.56
00:26:24.560We're going to be a force multiplier today on that story on, quite frankly, a freak running for the head of the Railroad Commission.
00:26:30.980It's shocking Democrats would put a guy like up with it. And he's arrogant. He doesn't even take all the stuff down.0.98
00:26:35.380Carlos, keep hitting it, man. Your content is amazing. We're going to continue to push it out. So thank you, sir. Appreciate you.
00:30:14.900Okay, the Medicare sign-up period is started October 15th to December 7th.
00:30:22.820845-WAR-ROOM is your hotline to chapter.
00:30:26.820They have saved people already over a million dollars in cash, but most importantly, they've gotten them into the optimum plan. Medicare is now more complicated than ever. Number one, I think it's four million people that don't realize they've been kicked off their plan.
00:30:39.960It's been notified in the mail, kind of in junk mail.
00:30:42.140But if you call Chapter right now, they'll walk you through everything.
00:30:45.300It takes about 20 minutes for the initial call,
00:30:46.920and then as long as you need later on to make sure you get an optimum plan.
00:30:51.780It's about an optimum plan in Medicare.
00:31:47.080Right at Amazon, War Room, you've got a great chance to help me put Fauci in prison.
00:31:55.800The strategy here is over the next couple of days, we've got to drive more sales.
00:32:01.460There's no better place to sell a book than The War Room because you people are both thoughtful and action-oriented.
00:32:11.100If we can get Why Fauci Must Rot in Prison on the New York Times bestseller list, we'll make this thing go viral.0.99
00:32:19.620The more books we sell, the more we're going to get attorneys general in states like Florida and Kansas and Louisiana to go after this son of a bitch.0.99
00:32:29.940And we can do it together. Why Fauci must rot in prison.1.00
00:32:35.040So go to Amazon right now. Let's get it done.0.97
00:32:38.680Tuesday, mark your calendar. We're going to do what we did this week.
00:32:43.020It was so much fun on Steve's show, 10 to 12 Eastern time.
00:32:49.360We're going to go and have some great guests and talk about how Fauci screwed us.
00:32:54.920So the lockdowns, the masks, the vaccines, and then 12 to 2 on RAV, I'm going to have another marathon call-in session.
00:33:02.880We had over 50 phone calls that came in with folks who talked about personally how Fauci had harmed them and their family and all of that.
00:33:19.800Folks, you're going to get to see in the New York Times that phrase, why Fauci must rot in prison, on their sacred New York Times bestseller book list.
00:33:30.620It will break the cultural side, the high priest of culture at the New York Times.
00:33:36.020Peter, one more time, where do people go?
00:35:10.980Good stuff. You want to see him dance? Yes. Make fun of the Democrats? Yes. Do you, do you have any Democrats in your family? What you praying for him? If you do, you don't know. Okay. What is it cool to be a Trump supporter at age nine or 10? Yes. Yes. And then what would your message be to all the voters? I know you can't vote because you're not a Democrat, but to all the voters out there, what would you tell them?
00:37:17.520The other party's proven that democracy is a tight-fitting jacket that they cannot wear.
00:37:22.700They accept the unacceptable, support the unsupportable, tolerate the intolerable.
00:37:28.400To go on, we'd have to get the coffee and a dry erase board because we're going to be here a while.
00:37:32.120But I want to thank y'all for your support, because seriously, this is one of the most dangerous times in the history of our nation since pre-World War II.
00:37:40.920It's a time to get the vote out and hold the line for the future of our generations.
00:37:47.240Our history will punish us if we fail what I call this no-fail mission.