00:01:23.880Look at this, though. In 2018, they were at just 202, and of course they had a net gain of 40 seats that year on their way to a very, very comfortable majority.
00:01:33.760This is the outlier here. This is the outlier.
00:01:36.220When I say these race raiders tend to be relatively conservative, they tend to keep a lot of seats in the toss-up category, and then many of those toss-up seats will go one way or the other.0.95
00:01:44.920This is the rare outlier in which Democrats are very much in the catbird seat, very much on their way to a majority, if this number holds with historical precedent.0.91
00:01:53.520Well, what about, what does history say about how they ended, how they ended performing?
00:03:15.120And CNN's Matt Egan is standing by for the decision there.
00:03:18.820Matt, what are the expectations today?
00:03:21.800Well, John, inflation continues to heat up, but the Federal Reserve is not expected to step in today to try to cool it off with another interest rate hike.
00:03:30.820There's really wide consensus across Wall Street that the Fed is going to pause today.
00:03:35.060Just a 9% chance of an interest rate hike, 91% chance of a hold.
00:03:39.460those odds are noteworthy because that means that an interest rate hike today would really be a
00:03:46.500surprise. And we know Fed officials, they do not like to shock investors because they can really
00:03:51.300rock the boat on Wall Street and cause unnecessary market turbulence that can be felt on Main Street.
00:03:58.860Now, this is despite the fact that, of course, inflation does remain high. And a number of Fed
00:04:05.200watchers. They tell me they believe there is a strong case for an interest rate hike today
00:04:11.000because of how stubborn inflation has been, right? There were those hotter than expected
00:04:16.960consumer and wholesale inflation reports for September. The Fed's preferred inflation metric,
00:04:22.820PCE, it has been stuck above the Fed's 2% goal for five and a half years. Think about that.
00:04:28.960That's half a decade of inflation chipping away at incomes.
00:04:33.220And the August PCE reading was 3.4 percent, well above the target.
00:04:37.580We don't have September yet, but we will tomorrow.
00:04:39.640And the forecast is for a step in the wrong direction to 3.6 percent and then another step in the wrong direction in October.
00:04:47.100Now, I did talk to some Fed watchers who have speculated that perhaps the political calendar has played a role here in keeping the Fed to hold.
00:05:02.440he told me that if he were still at the Fed, he would be voting for an interest rate hike today.
00:05:07.540However, he said that he thinks that the Fed is not going to do that,
00:05:11.280not because they necessarily want to help one party or another,
00:05:13.760but because they don't want to invite political criticism from President Trump.
00:05:17.600Kocho-Lakota told me that failing to move at this meeting is a sign
00:05:20.700they are being influenced by the political environment, and that is not a good thing.
00:05:25.380Now, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, he has pledged to maintain Fed independence to make decisions based on what's best for the economy, not to help one party or another.
00:05:34.480Bottom line here, John, no hike expected today.
00:05:37.820But Walsh will face tough questions from reporters at 2.30 Eastern about why they're deciding not to hike.
00:05:44.720Proof of Flavio, Bolsonaro, coming to the United States.
00:06:45.000And I thought the end result, you know, it's fine, the end result.
00:06:49.260But the way they got to the end result was terrible.
00:06:51.960I heard he was in Argentina. I don't know where he is. I mean, I heard he was in Argentina, but I don't know. I heard he was in Argentina. But yeah, I would have certainly approved of him being here.
00:07:08.320Too many good people, Nicole, too many really good people, they want to say that where we are is on the verge of something, that we are, that something bad may happen.
00:07:20.620Like, like right now, the Department of Justice has taken the position that they get to control who gets to vote in the state of California.
00:07:26.040They have asserted control over whether a Democrat can even win a Senate race in Alaska.
00:07:32.660They are they are threatening election officials with criminal investigations.
00:07:38.380They are, you know, saying that they are going to hunt down.
00:07:41.940You know, I think the U.S. attorney in Texas used that phrase.
00:07:45.520And so we are in the middle of a constitutional crisis.
00:07:48.500Now, it may be that we are able to survive it, right?
00:14:44.940President Trump took credit again today on True Social that he saved Netanyahu.
00:14:50.600I'll show you the True Social when we get back.
00:14:53.280Eric Bolling, McCabe at the White House, back today.
00:14:59.060One of my favorite days of the year, Veterans Day, is coming up,
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00:16:17.640Here's your host, Stephen K. Mann.1.00
00:16:20.880Hey, McCabe's the white hazard. I'll get to him in a moment.0.99
00:16:24.560I've got bowling on. So bowling, the capital markets in Brazil, they're throwing up all over the global capital markets throwing up all over Lula.
00:16:34.520Right. Because after the first round, they didn't expect this.
00:16:37.060They thought, hey, Bolsonaro win by X amount. Right.
00:16:39.720They didn't realize it's going to be stolen in your face.
00:19:54.740Especially the part about every pension fund and retired 401k account has, because these
00:20:00.480managers have built into their structures, state pension funds as well, the requirement
00:20:06.380to own stocks when they, equities, when they hit a certain valuation.
00:20:09.740So you have a, we're going to be exposed to X amount of debt, big debt, big tech being, you know, 200 billion.
00:20:16.180But that's supposed to be a, that's supposed to be a safety concern.
00:20:19.520They have requirements and now they're in indexes, you know, Elon and the guys made sure SpaceX, because it's supposed to be two years, let the thing season.
00:20:29.080Let's see a couple of earnings reports.
00:20:30.820Let's see what's actually happening, how the company operates.
00:20:33.300they do it out that they do it from the jump and it's the old theory was oh but safety if this is
00:20:39.240that big by the way i look back with the when i started wall street in 1984 out of harvard
00:20:46.080the market cap of the biggest company i think was ibm i looked it up last night it was 30 billion
00:20:51.940dollars 30 billion dollars is like a sideshow you know a little secondary offering that it was
00:20:57.440the market cap of the largest company on the new york stock exchange i think in 1984 was
00:31:34.280Flavio, because they tried to take his passport and basically essentially lock him up on phony charges, money laundering, all this other stuff they're making up.
00:31:44.760because they've got Jair Bolsonaro in a death sentence in a in a basically a military hospital.
00:31:52.420They've got Eduardo, who they indicted in absentia right after they lost the first round.
00:31:59.020This demon, the head of the Supreme Court, out of control, try to do the same thing for Flavio.
00:32:04.820Thank God Secretary Rubio and others got involved here and give us an update because I understand there's a press conference.
00:32:13.440I call this the beginning of a government in exile.
00:33:10.020It sounds like they know what is next after this administration.
00:33:17.140It sounds like to me that the Communist Party of China that controls Brazil through Lula da Silva already know they need to go after Flavio.
00:33:28.620They need to go after Rubio because after Trump, we're going to have J.D. Vance and Rubio in the United States.
00:33:34.640And as a Brazilian, knowing the communists, as I know, this is what I can tell you about the Supreme Court in Brazil, about Flavio. Flavio should really start a government in exile, announcing that Lula is not a legit president.
00:33:57.240there is no election brazil we need to remember we can't call that election that was fraud that
00:34:04.280was rigged uh they already know that trump administration and rubio uh kind of a helped
00:34:11.040flavio and also javier mille and his administration and lula right now it's not saying a word
00:34:18.900Do you remember when Lula was trashing Javier Millet, when he was trashing Rubio, and when he was trashing Trump?
00:34:32.100Since yesterday night, when Trump said, I know Flavio a bit, I know people are doing bad things against his father.
00:34:41.200since that the lula administration right now is in completely silence because they are afraid
00:34:49.900the shoot of america has have arrived in in south america and lula is the only one uh criminal that
00:34:58.940wasn't arrested yet this is what we need to get done lula need to be arrested right away and he
00:35:07.320is the head of the drug cartel in south america flavio here is going to expose all of it i hope
00:35:14.500so and the world is gonna see who is lula entirely and naked so thank you again for having me as soon0.88
00:35:23.140as as soon as they stole the election they immediately went to so that uh flavio wouldn't0.54
00:35:28.900come forward with all the evidence and actually challenge it because they charged their father
00:35:33.240father with the last stolen election they charged him with a coup d'etat that's why he got 27 years
00:35:38.840that's why he got the death sentence um they went to him right away let me take your passport your
00:35:44.020family's passports everything's going to be okay but we are investigating these money laundering
00:35:48.500charges which are totally phony the same things they went after eduardo about it's a total joke
00:35:53.420it's about a failed bank down there uh that uh it happened on lula's watch right and they had their
00:35:58.920hands in it and now they're trying to blame everybody what what when you talk about sanctions
00:36:03.300talk about arrest and talk about the the because the model they're using in brazil is exactly what
00:36:09.560they're going to do here in the united states uh if they take over the house in and by next week
00:36:14.900right if we're starting in january and if they win in 2028 uh as i said at the inaugural event
00:36:22.940of cpi i gave a speech and i said hey look i don't care you know we're riding high right now
00:36:30.240but if we don't keep the momentum going and we don't build on this movement if we lose they're
00:36:36.080coming back harder because they learned all the lessons from last time and they're taking guidance
00:36:40.000from what's happening with these marxists uh down in brazil with the supreme court with lawfare0.81
00:36:45.620people are going to go to prison lula wants yair bolsonaro to die on the world stage in prison he0.64
00:36:52.320wanted to put Flavio this was a guy that won the first round demonstrably the first round it's
00:36:58.580never happened in Brazil's history it's ever been reversed they were going to put him in prison
00:37:02.240right away they were going to lock him up and say hey we're going to investigate this thing we're
00:37:05.560going to have charge then they have all kind of charges if you say a peep about the stone election
00:37:09.680you're going to be charged with a coup d'etat and going that's all happening this is why we had
00:37:14.660Mark Elias on on the cold open this is all happening Mark Elias calls it a constitutional
00:37:20.000crisis here in the United States. Their constitutional crisis is that you, this
00:37:24.940audience, are walking around as free men and free women, or quasi-free men and free women.
00:37:29.440And if you're a Trump supporter, are you back MAGA or America First? They want to put you in prison.
00:37:35.760Alan, what do we need to do to actually hammer? I'd love the fact that the press conference to
00:37:39.820expose why, and this is why all the people I know in Latin America, they're on the Spanish-speaking
00:37:45.220side saying brazil's gone you know don't spend any time on brazil because lula is in with the0.94
00:37:51.360ccp and he's in with the drug cartels he's essentially bulletproof but brazil's going to0.97
00:37:56.760collapse under his gangster regime what what is what is flavio going to expose hopefully on
00:38:04.160thursday both of the government in exile and lula as the head of the drug cartels
00:38:09.300So, basically, Flavio needs to set up his family here in Miami.
00:38:16.400He needs time to see how it's going to be,
00:38:20.880because some politicians that we thought that we could count on in Brazil,
00:38:26.860they are already turning sides and turning against Flavio,
00:38:31.880and we need to expose them, and I'm going to do that a lot.
00:38:35.320Flavio probably is going to expose how Lula da Silva did not win the election and how the two biggest cartels in Brazil are connected with the Workers' Party and Lula da Silva.
00:38:51.200And he's probably also exposed how Lula da Silva was ahead of the São Paulo's Forum in South America.
00:38:58.560He needs to do that, and I hope he is going to do that precisely because we have a document, we have proofs.
00:39:06.500Even CNN in Brazil is saying that Trump has a dossier about Lula da Silva election, the Brazilian election, and also Demorize.
00:39:17.740So even the CNN in Brazil are saying this.
00:39:20.100So we hope that Brazil is going to be exposed and Lula da Silva is going to be known as the head of the São Paulo's Forum and the criminals in South America.
00:39:33.160alan where do people get uh we're going to stand by for all this we'll cover the press
00:39:39.000conference live tomorrow where uh and i'm so glad uh that it is going to be centered in miami
00:39:44.340miami's got the ecosystem the infrastructure uh to support this and to make sure this has a big
00:39:50.180impact uh where do people go to get your content and particularly your podcast that comes up every
00:39:56.620day in a few minutes at 11 o'clock Eastern Daylight Time, sir.
00:40:00.800AlanLosentos.com and also on Axe, Alan L.D. Santos.
00:40:07.500And I thank you so much, Steve, for having me here.
00:40:10.480It's pretty important for people to know that what is what's going on in Brazil right now
00:40:16.760is precisely what the Democrats wants to do with you, American citizen here in the United
00:40:24.820Now, I want to give a hat tip to you and Paolo and all the expatriates, Eduardo.0.76
00:40:30.360You were chased out of your homeland by communists, OK, that wanted to put everybody in prison and shut it all down there, as they've done in China, as they've done in other nations throughout the world, as the Bolsheviks did when the Bolsheviks took over the Soviet Union, as they did after World War II when they took over Eastern Europe.0.71
00:40:50.720The game plan's always the same, and you see it here in the United States right now.0.78
00:40:55.960You're seeing it here live and in person.
00:40:57.920And that's why I think to highlight the fact that it's taken brave men and women who were driven out of their country to stand and say, we're not going to tolerate this.
00:41:08.120We're going to fight back, and eventually we're going to take down this regime, and we're going to restore freedom to the people of Brazil is, I think, awe-inspiring and very inspirational,
00:41:17.640particularly as we are going through some pretty dark times here, folks, in the United States.
00:41:23.020And let me give you a newsflash. It's going to get a lot darker. OK, it's going to get a lot
00:41:27.460darker. Even if we hold the House by one seat on Tuesday and hold the Senate 50 50, it's going to
00:41:34.760get a lot darker. You haven't seen anything yet. When Mark Elias talks about a constitutional
00:41:39.040crisis, they've ripped up the Constitution. They're coming for you. OK, and they're proud
00:41:44.080of it. And they looked at guys like Damaris in that demon that runs the Supreme Court and Lula
00:41:51.120in Brazil and they see a role model. So Alan, thank you so much and thank you for your heroism.
00:41:57.500Courage is the most important of all the virtues because it is upon courage that all the other
00:42:04.860virtues rest. And this is what's so important about what's happening there. It's about agency,
00:42:09.720about your agency our fate is not written okay it's not locked in stone right now we can see
00:42:16.980in texas and other places where there is a shift people are fighting back in arizona andrew colvette
00:42:21.460is going to walk us through it today before the end of the show about your agency and it ain't
00:42:26.720easy particularly with these headwinds particularly people uh incredibly disappointed about our
00:42:31.620engagement in this middle east war and it looks like maybe even further engagement so it ain't
00:42:36.080easy. You can see this in Ohio today. I've talked to some guys, some men there that are very dialed
00:42:41.620in with the MAGA movement in Ohio, and they're saying, hey, this is an uphill climb. It's just
00:42:46.460an uphill climb. That is, in Ohio, one of the railheads of the MAGA movement. Why is it?
00:42:53.600Because back to the railhead of this, we had the economy starting to turn around, and we got
00:42:57.660engaged in this war after President Trump did the 12-day war, which essentially took out
00:43:03.080any nuclear problem that was there my belief and what president trump told us but we're going to
00:43:09.240go back to the white house in a second as soon as we uh as soon as we come back um and uh and
00:43:14.980get from neil mccabe everybody okay make sure i want everybody to get on this uh gold offer if
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