Bannon's War Room - WarRoom Battleground 290： Pregame For The Trump Townhall

00:00:00.000 this is what you're fighting for i mean every day you're out there what they're doing is blowing

00:00:18.260 people off if you continue to look the other way and shut up then the oppressors the authoritarians

00:00:26.020 get total control and total power because this is just like in arizona this is just like in georgia

00:00:31.800 it's another element that backs them into a quarter and shows their lies and misrepresentations

00:00:36.880 is why this audience is going to have to get engaged as we've told you this is the fight

00:00:40.640 all this nonsense all this spin they can't handle the truth war room battleground here's your host

00:00:47.760 stephen k bannon okay welcome uh it is uh wednesday 10 may in the year of our lord 2023 uh thank you

00:00:56.200 for rolling over from the previous hour uh so we got a lot to get to we're gonna we're gonna pregame

00:01:01.640 the uh town hall um tonight on on cnn and we're gonna actually stream that on getter

00:01:09.780 i want ever if you want to join the community get on getter and we're gonna live stream this

00:01:14.400 night it's totally free it's easy to do if you have any questions just you know go get to mo or

00:01:20.480 get to grace chung right now make sure you do we're gonna have a live chat going in the entire time we 1.00

00:01:24.880 want you part of the community uh this is a big deal the re-platform as i said and i called this

00:01:30.360 caitlin collins has just been announced a leak over at cnn she's been given i think a huge contract 1.00

00:01:37.680 and she's going to host the 9 p.m she's going to get the 9 p.m slot you could see that one coming a 1.00

00:01:43.300 mile away and for all those that knew caitlin uh early in her career over at tucker carlson's um

00:01:49.740 daily caller i know that uh everybody uh congratulates her uh so we're gonna get to

00:01:55.200 all that i've got to go to the border i've got barris has got a new set of numbers on florida but

00:01:59.780 he's going to go back to his national polling i've got one of the leaders the uh public intellectuals

00:02:05.040 and thought leaders of the conservative movement and dare say i the mega movement daniel mccarthy

00:02:10.000 for modern age uh he's got an amazing piece up in american mind uh that i've had up on my getter

00:02:16.240 account since early this morning when i saw it we got a lot to get to crom i want to finish with you

00:02:21.020 crom how do people uh and here's the thing you know to man the ramparts of the warm every day

00:02:27.180 it gets the tensions a little there because we got the you know the the war and posses the head of the

00:02:32.340 creditors committee we got them jammed in the corner they're hating on the war room posse because what

00:02:37.920 we're doing on the creditors committee uh in this debt ceiling fight uh we're the biggest advocates

00:02:43.240 of closing the border all of it uh and we know it's stressful to people so if you're going to be

00:02:48.540 lion-hearted you need uh you need salty for your heart how do people actually order it walk through

00:02:56.120 the process of how they actually get it steve the the simple way to get uh salty is to go to

00:03:03.400 warroomhealth.com that's warroomhealth.com and that'll take you through war room health to salty

00:03:10.540 and then when you order the subscription which is by far the best way to do it because our product

00:03:16.500 works over time it's all natural it helps to uh helps to stop stop the creation of cholesterol in

00:03:23.860 one part of the liver and it also seeps out into your bloodstream and helps your cardiovascular

00:03:28.900 cardiovascular system but then when you get to salty and you buy the subscription if you'll use

00:03:35.260 the code war room at checkout that's war room at checkout you'll save 29.95 off your very first

00:03:43.200 shipment which is a 50 discount and then after that on the subscription we ship you 90 day supply

00:03:50.100 every 90 days and you get three bottles for the price of two on an ongoing basis and we always pay

00:03:57.020 the freight so there are no surprises and it is a it's a great product and uh and i thank you so

00:04:03.640 much steve for letting me tell the posse about salty now this concentrate of green tea is just

00:04:10.920 incredible and uh you've done such a great job in developing this product uh crom uh good to have

00:04:16.280 you back thanks for being on today thank you thank you crom carm michael kind of bifurcated that right

00:04:23.960 first part in the first half of the show and the second part in the in the second hour i've got a

00:04:29.620 lot of stuff on the border but i'm not going to just hold it i think we're going to we're going to

00:04:32.560 change things up here i want to hold that there's some very dramatic footage as you know today we had

00:04:37.500 todd bensman down uh and todd bensman was i think in in reno so he's right down there uh oh no he

00:04:44.040 might have been a little farther south might have been across from from brownsville uh very dramatic

00:04:47.740 footage from todd today very dangerous down there we had uh congressman wesley hunt on the last hour

00:04:54.560 and and he's talking about tomorrow we're going to vote on this border security bill

00:04:57.720 uh i know for a lot of folks in this audience is not as hardcore as we want but it's what they can

00:05:03.620 get past right now and it's pretty pretty impressive um not that that's going to that's not a that's not

00:05:09.540 going to solve the crisis we have right now the crisis we have right now the state of texas has got

00:05:13.860 to step up abbott's got to stop the happy talk although we are seeing some footage from authorities

00:05:20.220 in texas kind of repelling saying hey you can't come in so we're going to get to all that a little

00:05:24.440 bit later i want to get a barrison here been doing he's been in the field and he's out and richard

00:05:29.580 particularly for tonight because uh this is a very important inflection point there's a lot of numbers

00:05:35.980 coming out that shows that uh trump has a uh not an insignificant lead over uh over biden and many

00:05:43.780 of the polls uh that he is uh spreading the feeling dominating on the primary and i keep advocating

00:05:49.720 we don't need a primary this is just a distraction for the for the moneyed interest to try to take

00:05:55.200 shots at at trump through all the instruments they're going to use uh but you've got new

00:05:59.700 polling coming out of florida i want to i just want to hit the reset button and remember a couple

00:06:03.840 hours away from the from the town hall there's a big the re-platforming a president trump tonight

00:06:08.640 i don't believe the entire first term he was ever on cnn i think we they we had these huge fights

00:06:14.560 in the campaign with zucker and these guys who are just terrible people and they essentially banned

00:06:19.380 a sitting president from actually being on cnn i think the entire time so tonight's a very big deal

00:06:23.780 uh and i'm quoted there's a bloomberg story up now on the terminal for all you traitors lead story in

00:06:30.720 bloomberg and i talk about this is a very important moment for president trump but it's also this fight

00:06:34.760 between murdoch and malone and about what they're trying to turn cnn to what fox is doing and fox is

00:06:40.020 it's coming hard after uh after tucker as you can see this this is very very complicated uh but we're

00:06:47.200 gonna get to more of that richard first off hit the rewind button talk about your national polling

00:06:51.680 particularly as we're getting into this town hall tonight where does this whole race where does trump

00:06:56.440 stand nationally before we drill down on your your new poll which you're just coming out on florida

00:07:00.900 yeah steve we're doing national polling and thanks for having me on as always we're you know

00:07:06.580 we're doing national polling almost uh every day now uh so the idea is whether or not trump

00:07:13.000 holds and maintains this 60 percent and whether or not the santus goes back near 20 or he falls so

00:07:19.740 that's why we continue to keep going with this national polling and then we looked at florida because

00:07:24.960 we wanted to know you know we're we're all looking at a lot of these earlier states and people will

00:07:29.720 start to see the results of them soon but this is such a blowout nationally that to me the number

00:07:37.040 one question was is this even close in florida anymore this is the governor's obviously his his

00:07:43.580 state uh we have seen governors lose their own home states before to eventual nominees it happened by the

00:07:50.060 way jeb bush was out before they even got to florida so i want to you know preface that you know preface

00:07:55.880 these numbers with that that florida will react you know to the national numbers and it will react to

00:08:01.380 primary victories and caucus victories that come before it so can we throw up the first slide which

00:08:06.780 just shows the uh republican presidential nomination polls so since i've been on monday you know i mean

00:08:12.840 the numbers haven't really changed that much trump is at 60 um desantis ticked down almost another full

00:08:18.980 point but 16.16 let's be fair round up to 17 uh this is a stable margin for trump that is a blowout

00:08:28.720 nationally and if you look at florida right below it that's the first one is with all of the candidates

00:08:34.200 that we poll nationally also in the race trump is below 50 in florida which is the one of the only

00:08:40.020 states that he is okay ho ho ho ho slow down slow down slow down slow down yeah particularly for our

00:08:46.300 podcast and vast radio audience that can't see that can't see the uh the d i want to go back

00:08:53.720 because you're not saying it tongue-in-cheek rounding up the spread between trump and uh and

00:09:00.060 desantis desantis is at 70 you're the first guy and i give you full credit because i said eventually

00:09:06.180 you're going to see desantis in the 20s and you corrected me he said no steve i think the way i'm

00:09:12.100 seeing trending you're going to see desantis in the teens and i never thought you'd see desantis

00:09:16.980 in the teens i thought he'd get to the low 20s but now you're talking mid-teens and you're saying oh

00:09:22.060 let's round up he's the trump versus desantis when you look at it from a national perspective and i

00:09:27.220 understand and the desantis camp is selling hard that hey you can't look at nationals you got to look

00:09:32.640 you know state by state although you just made the brilliant point all of the states are informed by

00:09:38.200 how things are going to roll nationally no no no state is an island unto itself and people that

00:09:42.800 think that don't understand the way that the information society works so go back we say

00:09:48.320 rounding up to 17 percent is talk to me about desantis in this primary from a national perspective sir

00:09:56.800 if you're down steve 43 points to 45 points on any given day uh nationally the the competitive

00:10:06.140 states especially the early primary even your own home state uh you're not going to be competitive in

00:10:12.580 them that translates to other states national polls lead states and as we start to see voting uh trump

00:10:20.660 holds these leads beats him in iowa they pivot they go to new hampshire this is going to get uglier

00:10:25.840 for desantis not better it will get uglier ask rudy giuliani he planted his whole strategy on florida in

00:10:32.780 2008 and it didn't work why because the fundraising they start to get weak at the knees i can't give

00:10:38.580 to you if you can't carry delegates um by the time we get to florida even though florida's earlier than

00:10:44.220 it was back you know back then by the time we get to florida voters there's no nice way to put it other

00:10:49.680 than this steve voters don't want to vote for a loser all right i'm not talking about hardcore mad

00:10:54.500 but there's something deeper here too your it was announced today right they had it on the hill and

00:11:05.120 i think they had it in the journal i think the journal journal excuse me bloomberg broke it bloomberg

00:11:10.340 broke it steve schwartzman and schwartzman and ken griffin been two of the big driving forces and

00:11:16.340 back i mean these guys they can write a hundred million dollar check and it does not impact at all

00:11:22.600 their personal lifestyle i want you to think about they could write a hundred million dollar check

00:11:25.820 and it'd be like you they know these guys can write a hundred million dollars cash money and it has

00:11:32.160 no impact on how they live their lifestyle that's the type of stroke these guys have schwartzman

00:11:37.600 told bloomberg today and they had it up on the terminal before the opening of trading today

00:11:42.160 he's out as far as desantis goes a big part of that is your your polling and others are coming

00:11:50.220 in they're showing desantis in a kind of a free fall or bottoming bottoming out bottoming out

00:11:56.980 in the mid to high teens and he's a you know these guys these hedge fund guys are mathematically

00:12:02.800 inclined they sit there and go hang on for a second he's 43 to 45 points behind before this thing starts

00:12:09.640 against a a beast like trump that's the counter puncher of all counter punchers and these ads that

00:12:16.060 trump's been running on social security particularly have had some impact this is why schwartzman and

00:12:21.160 i'm telling you desantis's entire logic of his campaign is built around wall street money to

00:12:27.280 stop the populism ken griffin's very blunt about this it's to stop populism the murdochs are very 1.00

00:12:33.100 blunt about this this is why tucker's off the eight o'clock slot your numbers are showing it how

00:12:38.780 uh how bad can it get any worse for desantis on a national level when you're in the high teens right

00:12:46.260 now i yeah i i think i think so i hate you know i i i'm i'm going out on a limb here but i say that 0.69

00:12:55.580 because when he was at 31 in our poll i didn't expect until later and we spoke i didn't expect that

00:13:03.740 he would fall to 20 that quickly uh that's why i i said he's going to go below 20 because it was

00:13:08.760 just so rapid so now i thought over the weekend 17 18 you know that's it he's not going to dip

00:13:16.300 into 16s and last night he was in 16 i mean that's why he's down now more because last night he was

00:13:23.580 below his average of 17 uh point something usually now at this point in the game so it's pulling him

00:13:30.780 down even further and the more days we accrue if this continues the more he'll fall so it it is

00:13:36.120 possible steve in florida specifically two things made a really big deal one trump's recovery with

00:13:42.600 seniors that were giving desantis a look and that has been going on for a month but two we heard an

00:13:48.920 awful lot about this overseas trip uh you know florida voters god florida voters what are you doing

00:13:55.080 in japan what are you doing in great britain like nobody believed that he was out there trying to

00:14:01.600 gather jobs steve for florida they know he's trying to run for president so they're looking at especially

00:14:07.980 older voters these older republican voters do their due diligence they really look the what came out of

00:14:14.280 it i love him as governor he's not ready for prime time and when we push them in this two-way race

00:14:20.620 so trump is just under 50 in the in the full field in florida and desantis is at 36 and i can give some

00:14:27.620 specific demographics before we move into the two-way push which is basically if you only had

00:14:33.060 trump and desantis to pick and you had to make a decision you know you try to nudge them to do it

00:14:38.360 um that's you know just a head-to-head but even before we do that steve trump is only ahead with

00:14:44.360 whites 49 36 he's ahead with hispanics in florida 56 to 33 so in this whole big you know to do from 0.54

00:14:55.360 team desantis about how well he did in south florida which i have argued was happening no matter what

00:15:00.760 mickey mouse would have carried miami dade steve you and i have been talking about this for years i've

00:15:05.560 been trying to tell people this was going to happen in miami dade in miami dade hispanics are backing 0.94

00:15:11.920 trump so that should tell you everything you need to know monroe would be closer pinellas would be

00:15:18.000 closer uh but generally uh out where you know it's gates territory in the panhandle that's

00:15:23.540 trump dominant north central florida trump dominant southeastern florida trump dominant goal and the

00:15:30.180 space coast trump dominant so desantis does best with some older more traditionist voters but he doesn't

00:15:36.260 have to lead with them anymore so when we push and we say okay it's just trump and desantis

00:15:40.660 level best what's it going to be then that's where you can see if you put that up again you'll see

00:15:46.200 trump increases from the full to the two-way he increases almost 10 full points desantis does go

00:15:54.040 up he goes from 36 to 41 trump more it basically doubles what desantis uh gets in a two-way so how

00:16:01.800 much so this concept the desantis campaign has been pushing all these donors the donors aren't buying

00:16:06.680 anymore and it's probably smart that they're not the idea that you can get them in a two-way race

00:16:11.520 and beat them as long as you get them head to head is not true anymore it's not even true in the sunshine

00:16:19.060 state let alone some of these other states new hampshire we're looking at like two to one leads

00:16:24.660 uh in a two-way race right now so uh this you said before that his entire campaign is based off of some

00:16:32.240 flawed uh some you know flawed money people they made some flawed assumptions that's really what

00:16:39.000 this comes down to you know the indictments are going to hurt him if i get him head to head i can

00:16:43.560 beat him right now that is not at all true not even in your own home state this is very problematic

00:16:51.360 i want a couple things i want to do hispanics once again the hispanic vote this is florida

00:16:57.880 56 33 correct 50 let me just look 55.6 to 33.3 so right there i mean my god steve that's 23 points

00:17:10.220 i mean 24 if you round i mean this is not close in in in a two-way of just trump desantis in in uh in

00:17:19.740 florida give me that number again in the two-way with trump and this trump goes from 47.8 to 57.6

00:17:27.600 desantis does increase from 35.8 but he only increases to 40.7 um and and and again the undecided

00:17:35.300 oh i almost forgot this this is very important the undecided in the full race is four and a half

00:17:41.260 percent when you match them head to head it falls to 1.7 so again you have to change minds at this point

00:17:49.300 it's not simply enough that you're going to consolidate the so-called anti-trump field

00:17:54.760 and get them all behind one candidate and then you'll be able to beat them that is not true

00:18:00.080 anymore not only can you you don't have enough votes you have to change minds right good luck

00:18:05.300 57 40 wow that that is a blackbuster number uh in in in that's what he based his presence it

00:18:13.840 braces run on was all these other the kibler l's falling out he gets trump and a mano a mano

00:18:20.300 he can beam it just can't happen but it's not the buried lead in all this and and i want you to repeat

00:18:26.260 this as you talk to seniors we like him as governor we don't think he's ready for the big state wanting

00:18:32.880 to stay mature do a great job here in his second term and then the world's his oyster essentially that

00:18:39.820 that we like him as governor but we're not buying that he's flying around to japan japan excuse me

00:18:46.620 korea japan israel and in the city of london in five days on a trade mission for the state of florida

00:18:53.640 am i correct in that assumption 100 and there's still they like i said they love him they do they

00:19:00.960 just don't love him as president and they even were thinking you know of giving him a a look they

00:19:06.500 were giving him a look you know polling florida two months ago de santis would have been ahead

00:19:10.480 probably uh there was a time when he was ahead uh so this is a matter of people looking steve that's

00:19:17.480 another problem with this idea that he's going to get a bounce after he gets vetted it's in the new

00:19:21.980 york times just today he already got his bounce and he's been vetted he was already halfway vetted

00:19:28.560 his own state the older the older voters from you know above 45 uh really 50 and above but let's just

00:19:36.700 say above 45 that was the chance he had they're very diligent voters they're looking at all of this

00:19:42.700 the trip overseas uh you don't you you can't insult people's intelligence too a little part of this comes

00:19:50.180 down to that and they still like him but you know don't make it about a trade mission we know what

00:19:55.560 you're doing right uh we know you want to run for president and and that's that's fine there is some

00:20:01.420 as well uh there there was some voters who did bring up that it really wasn't his time and you

00:20:08.140 know trump helped him uh he shouldn't be doing this so there is a danger for de santis of burning

00:20:13.560 himself with some of these voters i you know and florida's a little bit different of a case but

00:20:17.700 nationally those other voters we were looking at in the trump or bust steve these voters don't forgive

00:20:22.900 they don't forgive i'm talking about on a national scale they will not forgive him

00:20:28.420 last thing about let's let's let's talk about new hampshire just where we go what is your data

00:20:33.360 at a new hampshire uh show tonight is especially registered republicans or people the independents

00:20:39.600 are leaning republican these are potential republican voters give us your give us your snapshot and

00:20:44.860 thoughts on new hampshire new hampshire when you have the full field looks very close to

00:20:50.580 the nation overall um when you pit them head to head it's looking like you know again when it's

00:20:58.500 done don't hold me to this but right now it's about 65 35 it bobbles between 65 35 66 33 the

00:21:06.480 undecided is getting very small it's very early to see one two percent undecided like we're seeing

00:21:12.600 here even nationally the undecided has fallen to five percent that this is very early for this

00:21:18.740 you know a couple of months ago our undecided was 10 15 or 18 percent so people are deciding here

00:21:26.460 things have happened that made people come to an a decision and to again this is about now if you want

00:21:34.040 to be trump you have to change their mind that is much much more difficult than simply persuading

00:21:39.600 someone who is on the fence and doesn't know where they're going to go changing their mind requires

00:21:44.960 a lot more and i i know that i know what their idea is their ideas is another indictment will come

00:21:51.220 and these voters will be spooked by that i don't know steve i i just don't see it i don't see it

00:21:56.920 i don't see it they're digging their heels in steve the inflection point was east palestine when he

00:22:03.940 went to east palestine as we say went east palestine only trump can do that only trump can do that and i

00:22:09.280 think it reawaken people to 16 and what what this man stands for what this movement stands for richard

00:22:14.980 how do people get to you locals is the best way we're going to look at this trump or bus vote a

00:22:20.560 lot more people's pundit.locals.com if i can steve because we didn't have a chance there's a lot of

00:22:26.220 talk about that suburban voter won't vote for uh you know who who may vote for desantis but would vote

00:22:32.060 for biden against trump we actually and we're going to talk about this a lot more we put these numbers

00:22:37.080 together the trump or bus vote is more than three times the size of that vote and i would love to

00:22:43.700 come back and talk about that in more detail because everyone focuses on this tiny little

00:22:48.520 share steve and they're missing the 13 and a half million people who would never vote for anybody else

00:22:53.860 but trump it's ridiculous this is what i keep you you've just nailed it i said the 74 million votes

00:22:59.460 i said all the keebler l's combined plus throwing a couple are i'm not going to get to 74 million votes 0.72

00:23:05.460 no way you got you got it you've you have a you have a phenomenon that just does not happen

00:23:10.220 it's i will get you back i'll talk to you after the show and we'll hopefully get you back on tomorrow

00:23:15.100 richard you're doing amazing work thanks brother sounds good sounds good talk to you soon

00:23:19.360 um i want to bring in daniel mccarthy we got a couple of minutes here uh before we go to break

00:23:26.320 and then i'll bring daniel back after the break uh daniel uh you're at the modern age uh i think you

00:23:32.740 founded the modern age and and you're the editor over there but you're one of the most um brilliant

00:23:40.800 on a consistent basis writers and thinkers out there in the conservative movement and i would

00:23:45.560 say in the maga movement you wrote this incredible piece for american mind that trump can win uh and it

00:23:51.040 really talked about getting back to 16 and running outside walk us through and take your time give us

00:23:55.980 the snapshot first we got a couple minutes here and we'll get into the details on the other side of the

00:23:59.860 break give it give us give us daniel mccarthy's theory of the case yeah so i'm in the washington dc

00:24:06.720 area and i interact with a lot of the conservative movements leaders um a lot of folks who've really

00:24:12.000 done their uh service in various uh you know not just republican administrations but in the

00:24:17.060 conservative movement in the trenches but they're based here in washington dc and so they wind up being

00:24:22.560 influenced by the kind of mentality that the swamp creatures have and it's a defeatist mentality it's a

00:24:27.880 mentality which says that um the only way that the right can possibly win in elections is to take

00:24:33.780 no risks and of course that's actually proved to be the opposite of the truth that when the right

00:24:37.980 takes risks as it did with donald trump in 2016 it can actually wind up being very successful

00:24:42.620 whereas every time the right tries to play it safe and tries to pick a uh you know a somewhat center

00:24:48.240 right or centrist republican as its nominee uh you find out you get a disaster either you lose the

00:24:53.840 election or you know if you get a george w bush who wins the election he winds up you know governing as

00:24:59.180 uh you know someone who's very little different from a clinton or from an obama it's an utter disgrace 0.93

00:25:03.660 so the first thing i've tried to show is that the consensus here in washington which says that trump

00:25:09.400 simply cannot win up against biden that uh you know the um the polls you know supposedly are meant to

00:25:15.920 be so negative on trump that uh republicans should just not even consider him they should just you know

00:25:20.540 automatically look for someone else like desantis uh that's actually not true first of all it's

00:25:24.880 certainly not true today where the the polls actually show uh you know national polling

00:25:29.300 aggregates that you find on real clear politics and elsewhere have donald trump up by about a point

00:25:33.860 right now but even if trump were trailing in those aggregates by you know two points or three points

00:25:38.900 that would still be a sign that he would probably win an election in 2024 uh the reason for that being

00:25:43.940 that if we look back at 2020 and we look at 2016 both of those times trump outperformed on election

00:25:50.240 day what the polling aggregates on election day said he would get and trump always did at least

00:25:54.900 about three points better than what the polling aggregates on election day said he was going to do

00:25:59.240 now if that carries through to 2024 what that will mean is that the 2024 polls they may have you know

00:26:04.980 biden up by two points but that would actually probably be a win on election day for donald trump

00:26:09.940 because of the way the polls are simply very bad at finding trump voters at correctly estimating

00:26:15.820 their turnout and figuring out what we're going to see so that's the the sort of the top line

00:26:20.980 daniel daniel hang on one second we're going to take a short break i want to get into the you just

00:26:25.880 gave us the great summary uh particularly about the washington consensus and i have so many of

00:26:31.200 friends that are also in the conservative great people but you're right it's kind of this they've

00:26:35.360 been so beaten down they're so beaten down they said you got everything's gonna be risk mitigated

00:26:39.600 your point is fortune favors the bold better to be bold here that's the way you win that's the way

00:26:45.220 we won at 16 daniel mccarthy from the modern age his piece is up on american mind we've got it up on

00:26:50.920 the site we're pushing it out everywhere trump can win in 2024 he's gonna walk you through the

00:26:56.900 details we return it's the pregame for the town hall tonight on cnn we're gonna be live on getter

00:27:03.000 doing commentary all night back in a moment

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00:32:50.740 war room battleground with stephen k bannon

00:33:03.500 uh welcome back um our guest is a daniel mccarthy from the modern age and like i said daniel is one of

00:33:13.100 the leading public intellectuals in the conservative movement quite frankly globally in the uh in this

00:33:19.940 movement uh daniel i i don't want to say it's because of your your piece that's so uh well thought

00:33:25.580 through and backed up with with data and backed up with some serious thinking in in uh the american

00:33:31.060 mind but the hill newspaper did lead this morning with the democrats have a sinking feeling that trump

00:33:37.800 is going to win again and then good old rich lowry our buddy over national review has got a piece up

00:33:43.840 in politico this afternoon that that trump can't lose i know it hurt i know it hurt rich to have that

00:33:49.400 headline but go through you you've given us the overall theory of the case take your time and walk

00:33:54.140 through i've carved out some time here because this piece is so important for our audience to understand

00:33:58.980 the intellectual kind of infrastructure that you've got that supports your theory sir

00:34:03.700 yeah one of the important points i try to make in the piece is the idea that there is some alternative

00:34:10.180 republican brand that is more popular than donald trump is completely false and a lot of folks in

00:34:16.200 washington dc they like to imagine that for example george w bush winning re-election in 2004

00:34:22.280 indicates that okay there is some sort of center-right bush style or maybe you know maybe you can take the

00:34:29.880 bush thing and make it slightly more conservative but still try to be compassionate and you can try

00:34:34.360 to win uh with the kind of coalition that george george w bush had in 2004 that you could replay that

00:34:40.680 election and that is a winning electoral map for the republican party and a map back to power for

00:34:45.440 conservatives and i i disassemble that idea i basically dispel that myth um in 2004 george w bush had

00:34:52.540 every possible advantage he was an incumbent the iraq war was still popular uh gay marriage was still 0.84

00:34:59.240 a battle that was being fought state by state there were a lot of ballots on state initiatives uh state

00:35:05.200 initiatives on ballots across the country in 2004 that brought out social conservatives the values

00:35:09.740 voters who dragged george w bush across the line in 2004 all of these things were advantageous for george

00:35:16.220 w bush in 2004 and yet even with all of this you know going uh you know on his uh side of the ledger

00:35:22.800 he still couldn't break 300 electoral votes he came within about two states of losing the 2004 election

00:35:28.760 and uh one of the states that he had in his coalition in 2004 was the state of virginia where

00:35:33.520 i live virginia has since become a purple and now basically a blue state in many respects

00:35:38.660 and that electoral map the 2004 map that got george w bush re-elected if you replayed it today it would

00:35:45.020 lose for anyone it would lose for george w bush even with all the advantages he had back then and

00:35:49.700 today of course those establishment republicans or those center-right republicans like bush they don't

00:35:54.560 have those advantages uh you know the the fact that you know you no longer have people going to

00:35:59.740 the ballot boxes in order to vote on gay marriage referenda that's gonna you know mean that you don't

00:36:04.640 have quite as many social conservatives who are going to engage on that issue the fact that uh you

00:36:09.500 know the foreign policy of the bush administration and the republican establishment as a whole has been

00:36:14.040 such an unmitigated disaster that gets you into endless wars that only conclude with national

00:36:18.880 humiliation like we got in afghanistan all of that means that you simply cannot resurrect this uh 0.99

00:36:25.180 republican uh you know ghoul this this 2004 republican coalition it's a corpse it can't be you know

00:36:31.680 brought back to life no matter how much electricity you try to pump into it instead what the republicans

00:36:36.800 have hold hold hold daniel daniel daniel hang on one second i just want um and and to carl rove i'm

00:36:45.360 no fan of carl rove he's less of a fan of mine but his credit he made sure those ballot initiatives

00:36:50.720 were on i mean this is one of his great things that he worked on however is this why fox continues to

00:36:57.140 have carl rove on all the time with with his thinking and his strategy is that they believe that

00:37:03.620 that brand can be uh resuscitated i think that's right carl rove has this mystique because people

00:37:10.940 think that he won elections that otherwise wouldn't have been successful whereas in fact you know an

00:37:14.980 incumbent like george w bush with the advantages that he had in 04 was probably going to win

00:37:19.440 re-election and in fact it's kind of a shocking failure that george w bush in 2004 couldn't break 300

00:37:25.040 electoral votes i think the last time you had an election where the incumbent uh didn't break um you

00:37:30.460 know 300 electoral votes and one re-election successfully you have to go back you know before

00:37:35.180 1920 to find examples of that so normally either an incumbent loses re-election you know like jimmy

00:37:40.920 carter or an incumbent wins re-election with you know 300 plus electoral votes george w bush was the

00:37:46.100 only one who broke that pattern one re-election but did it by a very very narrow margin and again

00:37:51.060 that's a sign that uh you know someone like carl rove is not quite the uh mastermind and genius that

00:37:55.320 people think he was by contrast donald trump in 2016 wins more than 300 electoral votes donald trump

00:38:01.680 actually does what people like carl rove thought was impossible and donald trump was able to bring

00:38:06.380 new people into the republican coalition he was able to win states that the republican establishment

00:38:10.780 have been trying to win for about 20 years and constantly failed ever since the 1990 uh you know

00:38:16.320 1992 election states like pennsylvania states like michigan trump was able to win these states because he

00:38:22.220 was talking about a lot of bread and butter issues that ordinary americans responded to he was talking

00:38:26.720 about jobs immigration uh you know he's talking about trade he was talking about foreign policy

00:38:31.640 the idea that we should stay out of these endless wars these you know sort of ideological wars all

00:38:36.580 across the planet to promote democratic revolutions everywhere you know it's not that voters are you know

00:38:41.480 extremely sophisticated about foreign policy and want to you know think about all the different

00:38:45.580 geostrategic moves being made by the different players they just know that when you have a war that goes on

00:38:50.360 in afghanistan for 20 years when americans are coming back missing limbs or they're coming back

00:38:55.500 in body bags when we're pouring trillions of dollars into a complete failed state like afghanistan or iraq

00:39:01.580 that this is a disgrace and it's something that we cannot continue to do indefinitely and of course

00:39:06.200 now the same people who led us into these you know open-ended conflicts in afghanistan and elsewhere

00:39:11.000 they're doing the same thing in ukraine and ukraine may be fighting a defensive war and you know ukraine

00:39:16.200 i think will survive against putin's attack but the idea that you know giving uh you know ukraine a blank

00:39:21.660 check giving unlimited arms and unlimited money is going to deliver results that are going to be

00:39:26.100 dramatically different from what we saw in afghanistan i think that's mistaken i think that you know if

00:39:30.860 we don't have a plan to create a secure peace which is going to require creative diplomacy of the type

00:39:36.340 that trump brought to his administration in 20 uh you know between 2017 and 2021 you don't have that kind of

00:39:42.260 initiative that trump had instead you're going to get a situation of just ongoing chaos instability you

00:39:47.800 know both in ukraine and in russia that's going to be extremely dangerous for america and i think

00:39:51.860 the american people increasingly are aware of this certainly republican voters in the primaries seem to

00:39:56.180 be very much aware of it he gave us four years of peace and prosperity after that historic come from

00:40:02.340 behind win in 2016 uh daniel while i've got you about about the peace and about trump can win in 2024

00:40:09.180 we know this and i know this from the hedge fund guys that that are some of the people that are

00:40:14.100 sponsors of desantis in the room the presentation when desantis is there with the big money

00:40:18.960 is that trump can't win i'm the only one that can that can pull the republican party together

00:40:26.240 all the other people else will fall by the wayside i can beat trump uh in a primary in my messages i'm the

00:40:32.760 only one that can beat a general your your theory of the case and and and the evidence you put in this

00:40:38.300 article goes against that why tell us about it well think about this what is desantis's brand it seems

00:40:45.220 to me that there are two possibilities there one is that desantis is a younger and perhaps less

00:40:51.020 encumbered by legal difficulties version of trump but that's not going to work in a republican primary

00:40:56.300 because of course he's running against the actual donald trump and the actual donald trump already has

00:41:01.040 the affections of millions upon millions of voters they're not going to abandon him they're not going

00:41:05.020 to betray him for the sake of a younger model so if desantis wants to run as the heir to the populist 0.87

00:41:10.540 movement that trump uh built up he should be doing that in 2028 rather than trying to do it against

00:41:15.440 trump in 2024 but it just doesn't make any sense the other approach that someone like desantis might take

00:41:20.980 is to say well this entire populist uh project has failed and so you need to have a republican who is

00:41:26.900 just a republican and not a populist republican not a trump republican and you need to have just some

00:41:31.940 alternative some ordinary vanilla republican conservative as you know the uh the uh the

00:41:38.460 the banner carrier the spear carrier of this movement but that doesn't make any sense either

00:41:42.820 because uh the republican brand is if anything much more toxic than the trump brand not necessarily

00:41:48.000 because liberals are more you know sort of outraged by ordinary republicans than they are by donald trump

00:41:52.860 but because a lot of conservative voters a lot of heartland voters a lot of middle americans

00:41:57.700 they look at the republican brand and they say wait a minute this is a brand that's about rich guys

00:42:02.000 this is a brand that's about abandoning uh palestine and abandoning uh you know uh you know small town

00:42:07.660 america abandoning our factories so that that brand that republican brand that is a non-trump brand

00:42:12.820 is not popular at all even with the core uh republic uh republican voting base what the republican voting

00:42:18.980 base wants is to see the party actually be loyal to its interests and its concerns which are about jobs

00:42:24.680 they're about national you know citizenship and identity and they're about uh you know peace and

00:42:29.140 prosperity as opposed to this project of trying to uh bring uh you know the many of the worst features

00:42:35.360 of american progressivism to the entire planet uh through the barrel of a gun

00:42:38.860 daniel let me ask uh because you know this i'm gonna break it down triage it um you have the

00:42:46.760 conservative intellectuals what would you know as well as anybody you have the money the big donors and

00:42:53.160 particularly the big cores of republican money on wall street in an industry and in real estate

00:42:59.380 and then you have uh what is the party the the political operatives and the party that that

00:43:05.500 is here both in dc but then throughout the country why is it when it's so obvious

00:43:11.040 that a populist nationalist movement can bring more people and can have energy why does it seem like

00:43:17.560 all three elements of that of the official traditional republican party spend more time

00:43:23.280 fighting this than they actually do fighting progressive democrats sir yeah i think it's two

00:43:30.120 reasons one is that a lot of them live in virtual reality uh if they live in washington dc or a few other

00:43:35.940 enclaves where they may be the only conservatives in what's otherwise a very blue zone uh they are um

00:43:42.760 susceptible to the assumptions that everyone around them is making and they're susceptible to

00:43:48.040 uh there's almost a domino effect where cowardice becomes contagious and people who lose their nerve

00:43:53.180 and say hey you know we can't win by being on the right we can't win by being populist or nationalist

00:43:57.840 uh when they when they switch and they decide to embrace uh you know the uh more uh globalist agenda

00:44:05.360 the uh sort of neocon agenda when they decide that they when they do this just out of sheer cowardice

00:44:10.840 uh it becomes infectious and a lot of others uh you know people around them start to say

00:44:15.140 you know what uh you know if this guy's lost heart maybe i am uh someone who shouldn't be so bold

00:44:20.360 either maybe i should also uh you know do the prudent thing and the safe thing and uh just go along with

00:44:25.820 the flow of globalism and the republican establishment and so forth so cowardice and uh you know this is

00:44:31.380 living in a bubble living in virtual reality that's one explanation the other explanation

00:44:35.540 unfortunately is that there are an awful lot of people who are engaged with the republican party

00:44:40.520 and even engaged with the conservative movement who are actually on the other side and they actually

00:44:44.780 they really are people who have uh you know the same philosophical outlook as most progressives

00:44:50.900 but they just want to do it a little more sanely than the progressives want to do it right

00:44:54.200 so uh yes to globalization yes to you know open borders but they want to do it a little more slowly

00:45:00.500 they want you know street crime to be a little lower and so basically um there was an old joke about uh

00:45:05.380 you know uh certain kinds of republicans being just the tax collectors for the welfare state

00:45:10.080 that was something that used to be said about bob dole and the bushes and whatnot well there's a sense

00:45:14.740 in which the same thing is true culturally where an awful lot of republicans and even a lot of

00:45:18.980 conservatives they're really just uh you know kind of slow motion uh left-wing radicals they're not

00:45:24.780 people who are actually trying to reverse course and go in a different direction they're not trying

00:45:29.080 to save you know the uh traditional america instead they want to march into the same kind of

00:45:34.380 progressive limitless you know uh trans everything future trans globalist transnational transgender

00:45:41.360 the whole thing but they just want to do it more slowly and prudently and uh you know kind of not

00:45:46.440 upset their immediate circumstances they're perfectly you know fine with living a little more

00:45:50.580 conservatively themselves but they really expect their grandchildren to be you know much farther to

00:45:54.620 the left and they're okay with that they're happy with that

00:45:56.820 in 16 we ran a uh anti-globalist uh you know nationalist uh populist uh campaign against what

00:46:06.280 the clinton apparatus was if you had a chance to sit down with uh president trump and said hey look

00:46:11.200 i'll give you some free advice of of how i think you ought to position this in 2024 what would you tell

00:46:15.720 him well first of all he needs to do uh what you were able to help him do in 2016 which is to

00:46:21.560 concretize things so it's one thing to talk about citizenship and the border and the and uh

00:46:26.800 immigration but you need something as concrete as the wall as an idea that's actually going to

00:46:31.780 galvanize voters and get them to say wait a minute this is a clear difference that you're going to get

00:46:36.140 if you vote for this guy and you're not going to have it if you don't vote for him so clear imagery

00:46:40.220 is one thing as far as the issues go the core uh issues that elected donald trump in 2016 are still

00:46:47.120 if anything more important now than they were even then so on immigration for example there are a lot

00:46:52.160 of squishes out there there are squishes who thought well you know all the all the left all the

00:46:56.380 media is saying that donald trump was this ogre on immigration and yes we think there should be a

00:47:01.140 little bit more immigration uh restriction but you know we want to see it done a little more softly and

00:47:05.640 a little more gently but it turns out that when you get someone like joe biden in office and joe biden

00:47:10.760 is of course a left-wing progressive but he's under political pressure to try to do something about

00:47:14.960 the border but it turns out that even the mildest things that someone like joe biden who's really a you

00:47:19.720 know a mass immigration supporter even the mild things that he does get uh joe biden denounced by his

00:47:25.540 own side by democrats and by progressives on twitter and elsewhere they say oh this guy's as

00:47:30.520 bad or maybe even worse than trump you've got kids in cages again you have everything happening once

00:47:35.140 more so i think a lot of voters who you know wanted to see the trump agenda to some extent but were

00:47:41.040 afraid of taking it all the way they're now looking at the fact that you know even the slightest things

00:47:45.860 that joe biden does are considered are denounced you know as just as extreme and just as you know

00:47:50.700 hostile to immigrants as anything that trump was doing and they're going to say well you know what i guess

00:47:55.240 you have to make a firm choice you have to either choose uh you know something that's trending in the

00:47:59.040 direction of open borders and you know huge mass immigration or you really have to take a trump

00:48:03.560 approach that's a hardline approach and try to you know uh really reduce certainly illegal immigration

00:48:08.680 but also uh you know turn down the faucet on legal immigration as well so i think that's a winning

00:48:13.300 issue for donald trump also foreign policy is if anything going to be even a stronger issue

00:48:17.980 for donald trump in 2024 than it was in 2016 or in 2020 in 2024 we see that the same formula that failed

00:48:25.900 us in afghanistan that basically prolonged a war for 20 years and then ended in national humiliation

00:48:31.900 for us this is the strategy that joe biden is deploying in ukraine we don't have an end game in ukraine

00:48:37.620 joe biden doesn't have any idea of what realistically can come about to restore peace in ukraine

00:48:42.380 i mean if you ask these people you know are you thinking that ukraine is going to retake crimea how

00:48:47.540 can you possibly believe that when you think ukraine is not even going to get very much

00:48:50.400 you know of the territory that they lost in the past year they're not going to get much of that back

00:48:54.540 from this counter-offensive they're going to launch supposedly in the next month or two here

00:48:58.260 well you just get a divide by zero answer when you ask you know the foreign policy establishment

00:49:03.100 that question they will not give you a straight answer about praying about crimea and crimea

00:49:07.860 obviously is central to this whole problem russia will never ever let crimea completely go out of

00:49:13.400 their hands because they need crimea for black sea access they need that for their fleet and this has

00:49:18.520 been a russian objective in foreign policy for centuries this is not about putin this is not about

00:49:23.480 putin's revanchism that may or may not be a real thing but certainly the russian interest in crimea

00:49:28.660 and in the black sea that is a permanent geo geo strategic and geographic interest of russia's that you

00:49:35.120 know you can't just get rid of that at the negotiating table so i think donald trump is in

00:49:39.120 a very strong position to point to the failures the uh you know sort of open-ended uh conflict that

00:49:44.460 he's got us into in ukraine the uh you know blank check that he's giving zelinski who's a very corrupt 0.58

00:49:49.320 guy and who knows where that money's going we saw with afghanistan we gave them you know and we gave

00:49:54.640 them trillions of dollars and we gave them endless amounts of american weapons what happened at the end of

00:49:59.400 the afghanistan war after 20 years those weapons wound up in the hands of the taliban i mean it's insane 0.93

00:50:04.480 and yet here we are repeating this i think if donald trump hammers that message home he's going

00:50:08.440 to do very well give us uh we got about two minutes if you can give if we're talking to trump tonight

00:50:15.060 this is the first time he's been it means shocking seeing he has not been on cnn during his entire

00:50:19.240 first term he's on tonight to reintroduce himself to a cnn audience what would you tell president trump

00:50:26.000 he should focus on tonight in this replatforming of him on cnn he should focus on those central themes of

00:50:33.580 his that defined him in 2016 and what he should not focus on are his immediate legal problems and of

00:50:38.440 course you know cnn and other elements of the media that's exactly what they want to talk about

00:50:42.580 and trump quite naturally wants to defend himself he wants to defend his honor he is quite right when

00:50:47.560 he says that you know oftentimes these attacks on trump are really a way of going after trump's

00:50:52.280 voters you know they're really going through him in order to get uh you know the voters behind him

00:50:56.360 be that as it may i think talking about and getting into the weeds of all these legal

00:51:00.400 difficulties uh that's something that will turn off a lot of republicans who just aren't you know

00:51:05.120 they don't want to make that the central issue of the 2024 campaign and there are you know some degree

00:51:10.220 of uh voters who are not yet aligned either way and really are kind of open as they look at the 2024

00:51:15.500 choice and uh you don't want it to be you know to force them to have to be voting on legal problems as

00:51:21.520 opposed to voting on what their own interests and their own neighborhoods are most concerned about

00:51:25.860 daniel uh it's very rare to meet someone with uh with uh wisdom and also the applied understanding

00:51:34.940 of applied politics um how do people get to you what's your social media how do they get to your

00:51:39.520 website how do they find out more about the modern age yeah they can find out more about modern age at

00:51:44.220 our website which is www.modernagejournal.com it's a quite a mouthful but modernagejournal.com

00:51:51.240 uh they can also uh follow the organization where i'm a vice president for some of our student

00:51:56.560 journalism activities and that is the intercollegiate studies institute or isi.org again that's isi.org

00:52:02.580 and next week we actually have a very important event coming up in washington dc with senator jd

00:52:07.940 vance and with the post-liberal political philosopher uh patrick denean and that's going to be on

00:52:13.200 wednesday may 17th at catholic university of america here in washington dc again if they go to isi.org

00:52:19.180 they can learn more about that event and hopefully we'll see uh many of the listeners uh you know

00:52:23.380 be able to attend they can also find me on twitter at torianarchist which is a curious label but it's

00:52:28.600 a fun one we're going to make sure everybody gets there by the way we'll we'll have you back on or

00:52:34.500 want to talk about that jd senator vance kicked off the show tonight at five o'clock uh and he is a huge

00:52:40.700 favorite of this audience and and daniel uh really uh honored to have you come on and share uh this

00:52:46.860 analysis a very important piece on american mind we'll make sure everybody gets to it so thank

00:52:51.240 you for taking the time tonight so i appreciate it thanks steve

00:52:54.240 okay i want to get we're going to make a big deal this thing at catholic university next week i want

00:53:01.260 everybody out there to see jd and daniel mccarthy uh very important okay stick around get up on twitter

00:53:07.780 get up on getter and see us we're going to have a live chat going tonight at eight o'clock i think it

00:53:13.320 will last an hour and a half now the town hall is going to last 90 minutes maybe a little uh wrap

00:53:17.940 up after that but we'll want everybody up there and we'll be back live here tomorrow 10 a.m uh the

00:53:24.320 shows today were quite intense i will commit to you that tomorrow shows will be just as intense there's

00:53:29.900 so much going i've never seen a news cycle like this eight o'clock tonight on getter if you're not

00:53:34.180 earning on getter reach out to mo or grace they'll tell you how it's so simple to get on you just got

00:53:39.720 download an app totally free make sure you're on there tonight we'll see you back on getter at

00:53:44.340 eight o'clock uh for the town hall up in new hampshire uh and we'll also see you back there

00:53:49.140 live tomorrow morning when you will be in the war room make sure you lace them up tight tomorrow see

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Bannon's War Room - May 10, 2023

WarRoom Battleground 290： Pregame For The Trump Townhall

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