00:01:23.360That's what we've done this evening in the first half of the show.
00:01:26.160Second half of the show, stay tuned for this,
00:01:28.120is Ryan Bridge, co-founder of Raise the Colours,
00:01:32.180a great beloved figure in the English patriot movement
00:01:37.700who's going to be telling, coming on, giving the latest
00:01:40.580about what he's going to be doing this weekend.
00:01:42.500First, however, we have tapped for you this evening Gideon Rose, who is an associate senior fellow at, hold your breath folks, clutch your pearls here, at the Council on Foreign Relations, who's writing in Foreign Affairs, which is, as Steve Bannon often says on The Morning Show, it is the world's most prestigious and informed magazine, quarterly magazine, on foreign events.
00:02:12.500So Gideon, thanks for coming on the show. You've put out an absolutely corker of an article, which I have read and underlined in many places. Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea. And you sort of point some of the similarities in a very strategic and structural way.
00:02:32.900and your analysis on this the reason why you've done this is because you have written a book and
00:02:38.060i'll give the link to that at the end of the show how wars end and it's essentially your thesis that
00:02:44.080if you understand what the structures are of these similarities if policy makers understand that then
00:02:50.280you have a better insight as to how these uh things might conclude and that's why i think
00:02:56.160you've written the book that's why you've written this article um why don't you just start off
00:03:00.720perhaps uh and go through because we've got 20 or so minutes to do this go through perhaps um let's
00:03:07.700start with um your thesis that iran is vietnam uh and ukraine as as korea we'll do that
00:03:16.840afterwards just go through if you wouldn't mind this is what your article does so well the
00:03:23.040narrative here of exactly how the united states found itself in vietnam um and wasn't really able
00:03:30.460And you sort of mentioned the five steps here, entry, escalation, frustrated stalemate, negotiations, and then finally extrication.
00:03:41.000And I know you're going to paint this picture with a light brush.
00:03:45.660You're not going to be too heavy on saying, OK, so this maps totally to the present day.
00:03:51.700But I think the thesis is interesting.
00:03:53.320Steve often mentioned this, has done from the beginning on February the 28th, the parallels.
00:03:58.620I'd like to hear your perspective here. Perhaps start off with exactly, as I was saying, how America found itself in Vietnam and how it wasn't able to extricate itself, even though it tried to de-escalate strategy. Gideon, the microphone is yours.
00:04:15.940Great. Thanks for being here. The basic point that I try to make is that there's a structure to reality that's independent of us. And if you're a policymaker, you are trying to change the world from where it is, but you have to deal with where it is in order to change it accurately.
00:04:36.080Because if you try to bump up against a structure that can't be changed, you're not going to be successful.
00:04:43.580And what happened in Vietnam was that the local government we were supporting, the non-communist government in the south of Vietnam, was not particularly effective, was not particularly beloved, was not particularly strong.
00:05:01.000And there was a communist movement and a local insurgent sort of handmaiden of that in the north and in the rural areas of the south that was more motivated, probably better led than our South Korean allies, sorry, South Vietnamese allies, and was gaining ground.
00:05:23.280And so when Lyndon Johnson came into power after the assassination of both President Kennedy and the assassination of President Diem in Vietnam, the question was, what should the United States do?
00:05:41.160Because if you did nothing, it looked like the South Vietnamese would ultimately lose their local civil war, that the North Vietnamese and their guerrilla allies in the South would ultimately beat the non-communist South Vietnamese regime.
00:06:04.820And so the Johnson administration decided to keep American policy the same, which was make sure that South Vietnam didn't fall to the communists, but they didn't really have a good answer for how to do that in the long run.
00:06:24.440So what they adopted was a policy of give help to South Vietnam, help them fend off the attacks from the North, and hope that in the long run, that would be enough to get the North to cease and desist.
00:06:41.900So at the very start, we sent advisors and aid. And that went okay, but it didn't really
00:06:51.780help the South win. And the North just kept coming. And so we ended up bombing. And we
00:07:00.860ended up sending U.S. troops in first to protect the airfields from which we were bombing,
00:07:05.660and then to engage in fighting itself.
00:07:09.800And again, the hope was we would use our power0.72
00:07:14.240to frustrate the North and the communists0.53
00:07:29.040and we kept matching and upping our involvement.
00:07:35.660And after several years, we had half a million troops.0.71
00:07:41.460We were bombing the hell out of the North.
00:07:45.620And yet, it still wasn't enough to get the North to stop.
00:07:50.880And at this point, we didn't really know what to do.
00:07:55.200And so the Johnson administration basically finally said,
00:08:00.440our strategy isn't working, but we don't know what's going to work and we're not going to
00:08:06.660lose or we're willing to walk away. So I'm just going to cap it where it is. Johnson in 68
00:08:12.500essentially says, we're going to unilaterally pause our bombing. We're going to keep fighting.
00:08:18.880We're not going to give in, but we're going to also start some negotiations. I'm going to withdraw
00:08:24.220off from politics, not run for another term, and kick the can to my successor. That turns out to
00:08:30.460be Richard Nixon, who along with Henry Kissinger inherits war leadership in early 1969, and
00:08:39.400basically tries to do the same thing, but it doesn't work. And so he's faced with a problem
00:08:47.100very similar to what we have sort of now a little bit, which is we have a strategy that's not really
00:08:53.880seeming to work but we don't really know what to do differently so to use your schema the mapping
00:09:00.640would be what you've just described through then is the entry part we're not necessarily really at
00:09:06.400the escalation uh full-on at the moment but when the entry a little bit of escalation um in order
00:09:14.240to know because you have a reputation to to defend obviously and into the sort of uh the frustrated
00:09:20.300stalemate part right and then of course with kissinger there's the idea okay what we've got
00:09:25.300to do is basically bomb the hell out of them and amp up the escalatory aspects now before we go
00:09:32.040on to that would you just give me sort of just two minutes as i say paint with a light brush on this
00:09:37.080one but give me just just map the the the concept the concepts here if you wouldn't mind to the
00:09:43.480present Iran situation, up to the present point transpired? After last year's attacks by the
00:09:50.900United States and Israel on the Iranian nuclear program, there was a lot of damage done. But the
00:09:57.160Iranians were rebuilding their conventional military defenses and their missile programs.
00:10:05.740And the United States and Israel worried in early 2026 that if we didn't do anything, the Iranians would get to the point where they could ultimately have a shield around their nuclear program that would enable them to restart their nuclear program that would ultimately enable them to be a major power in the region, threaten Israel, threaten us, do other things, etc.
00:10:33.280And so in that sense, there was a similarity in the sense that the trends were against us.0.71
00:10:39.740And in order to halt those trends, the United States and Israel attacked in February.
00:10:47.100And the idea, there were multiple potential goals.
00:10:50.580We still don't know the whole story.0.79
00:10:52.400But at the minimum, the idea was knock them back militarily, what the Israelis call mowing0.82
00:10:58.780And at a maximum, it was hoped that your decapitation strike would collapse the regime and end the problem.
00:11:07.020And so let me just stop you here, because I just the first observation is that both of the primary causes for U.S. involvement here, they're not without merit.
00:11:18.860But in either case, not with Vietnam, not with the Israeli-American initiation here in Iran.
00:11:28.060You can make an argument to say both of these things.0.69
00:11:58.860A lot of the, you know, quite a few commentators were against the February 28th bombing of Tehran, wiping out the Itala and what have you.1.00
00:12:11.560But be that as it may, one can recognize the legitimate arguments at that time.0.62
00:12:17.880So here you've mapped out the entry, the small scale escalation so far, rather than escalation as a desperate strategy.
00:12:29.140You've mentioned what you call here the terms frustrated stalemate now.
00:12:33.640And I would segue from frustrated stalemate into frustrated negotiations to a certain extent.
00:12:40.680so it's a pick up again on the um i tell you what let me give a quick shout out to our sponsor
00:12:44.760then we'll pick up again uh where we left off in um in vietnam um so quick shout out to birch gold
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00:14:26.420july the 10th again text bannon b-a-double-n-o-n-2-9-8-9-8-9-8 back now to gideon rose
00:14:34.980associate senior fellow at the council on foreign relations the enemy as we often like to
00:14:42.420throw pot shots richard has whenever we see him on the television um writing getting you you just
00:14:50.020for folks who are joining us now you've written this incredible article in um the uh foreign
00:14:55.460Affairs, entitled Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea. So pick up then where you were saying
00:15:03.720where we are in the stages now in the Iranian narrative. So when I teach foreign policy to my
00:15:10.480students, I start with what I call Rose's first law of foreign policy. And Rose's first law of
00:15:16.940foreign policy is that all policies suck, but some suck more than others. And the job of the0.97
00:15:23.160policymaker is basically trying to find the least sucky solution to a problem, given your interests,
00:15:31.080your capabilities, your objectives, etc. Both Vietnam and Iran posed great problems.0.83
00:15:42.520But unfortunately, the world doesn't always have great solutions to the problems it throws at you.
00:15:48.820And so in both Vietnam and Iran, the trends were going against us, and the question was, do you accept those trends and the losses that would come with it and the further problems that would flow, or do you try to intervene in some way to solve the problem or just to make it a little better?
00:16:09.920And so what happened in Iran was that we went in trying to either solve the problem at its root by getting rid of the regime, or at least deal a setback to it by knocking back their military and knocking back their ability to strike other people in the region.
00:16:30.080The administration hoped that the Iranian regime would fall.0.65
00:16:38.000And not only that, but it was able to strike back at its regional neighbors, the energy infrastructure of the Gulf, the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
00:16:48.820And so after about a month into the war, the administration, the Trump administration, found itself in a pickle because it had hurt the Iranians.0.56
00:17:00.700It had dealt a real blow to their capabilities, but it hadn't knocked the regime out.
00:17:07.060and the regime had punches that it could still throw. And so each side, we could blow
00:17:14.280off the face of the earth, but they could also destroy the GCC and the oil in the region,0.74
00:17:22.220which we didn't want to have happen. And so both sides realized this isn't particularly going
00:17:27.820anywhere good for either of us. We don't like what's happening, but we really don't like what
00:17:32.360might be coming if it escalates further. So let's go into negotiations and see if we can agree to
00:17:38.780some kind of standoff compromise deal that essentially cuts things back to where they were
00:17:46.900sort of before. Neither side wanted a compromise. Neither side wanted to give up hopes of victory,
00:17:53.160but also neither side wanted to suffer the costs of a really major escalation or ongoing war.
00:18:00.800And so ever since then, you've been having these negotiations under a sort of ceasefire that's basically held in which you're trying to get each side to come to grips with the unfortunate, unpleasant compromises that will probably have to be made in order for this phase of the conflict between the United States and Iran to end and go on to some more normal situation.
00:20:24.280When Nixon came into power, he first thought, I'm going to achieve the goals that Johnson wanted, full victory, the North backing off, South Vietnam protected, because I've got more balls and I am more threatening and I'm willing to be much tougher than Johnson.
00:20:43.540And so he threatened, he did the madman theory, he increased bombing and said he's going to increase it more.
00:20:49.180But ultimately, the North Vietnamese called his bluff. And so Nixon and Kissinger were forced to basically recognize that the ultimate goals they wanted weren't really going to be achievable without a huge investment and escalation that there was no domestic support for.
00:21:07.560And so they shifted to trying to get out of the war. And so essentially what they crafted
00:21:14.700was a deal in 1973 in which the United States could walk away, in which we could get our
00:21:21.700prisoners back, in which the U.S. involvement could basically end, but that the underlying
00:21:29.220conflict between North and South Vietnam would ultimately keep going. And in fact, ultimately,
00:21:34.840the North won a couple of years later. Unfortunately, that's probably what we're
00:21:39.520going to see now, which is the ultimate fate of the Iranian regime is not going to be decided
00:21:46.020in the next month or so. The ultimate fate of the Iranian nuclear program is almost certainly
00:21:51.820not going to be decided in the next month or so. But it is possible that we may well get an
00:21:57.500agreement that allows the opening of the Strait of Pormuz, some kind of controls on the nuclear
00:22:05.400program, and some kind of end to the immediate round of fighting. And then you end up, in effect,
00:22:13.700agreeing to continue conflict, low-level conflict, special operations, negotiations, other stuff
00:22:21.000on these other questions, even as this particular war ends for right now.
00:22:27.500um one of the things here that you report and i think henry kissinger was both um um national um
00:22:36.540national security advisor and secretary of state at the same time and seeming yeah that's right
00:22:45.160that's right that's right um um seemingly then with all that information and all the experts
00:22:53.560double-hatting as he was at his disposal, he was genuinely amazed. He says, I can't believe
00:23:00.040that a fourth-rate power like North Vietnam doesn't have a breaking point. And of everything0.99
00:23:06.020that you wrote here in this article, you can almost sort of perceive the same incomprehension,
00:23:12.260if you will, coming out of the administration at the moment. Of course, that was the sparking
00:23:17.320point, if I've understood the historical points correctly, that was the leap point to then have
00:23:25.180a serious escalation, which needed to work itself through the system, which we haven't really had
00:23:31.260in the present iteration of the Middle East conflict right now.
00:23:37.760Yeah, because it's very, very costly. Look, everybody, not everybody, but many people start
00:23:44.280wars, thinking it would be relatively easy to use force to achieve political ends.
00:23:52.600It turns out to be relatively easy to use force, but a lot harder to connect that to
00:23:58.440the achievement of political ends.0.64
00:24:01.000And so you often, you're seeing this in Ukraine, you see it in, again, the North Koreans saw
00:24:09.560the Israelis found it. Hamas found it on October 7th. The Israelis found it when they went back
00:24:16.700into Gaza. It's often very hard, even if you have a lot of power, to turn that power into a stable,
00:24:24.660durable political settlement. And ironically, this is one of the things I think that
00:24:30.120the MAGA movement got sort of correct about Afghanistan and Iraq, which was we had gone
00:24:38.660into those conflicts, naively thinking that we could achieve results fairly easily and then got
00:24:45.600stuck. And so thinking carefully about when to engage is often, you know, something that should
00:24:53.780be done, but rarely is. I quite agree with you again, with that, with your, with your, with your,
00:25:01.340that's really the America first faction within MAGA, which I think that's spot on.
00:25:08.260I just want to close here in the final 60 seconds of the show, you close the article here, which I was referring to by suggesting that even if there's some kind of negotiation, which isn't ideal from the US perspective, that doesn't mean the end of American power.
00:25:24.080And you're saying here, you close by saying there are no guarantees of another of another such geopolitical revival, because you say that after Vietnam, America just grew from strength to strength.
00:25:34.980But the creative dynamism of American capitalism and the regenerative capacities of American democracy have pulled rabbits out of hats for centuries and are unlikely to stop doing so now.
00:25:48.680Which I think is a beautiful point to end on.
00:25:51.080Gideon Rose, very grateful for you to, like Daniel, step into the lion's den, come on to the war room, talk through your thesis with us today.
00:25:58.580very quickly on social media where do people go to to keep up with your analysis or perhaps to
00:26:04.200look more uh into the book that you wrote how wars end i post my stuff on linkedin um social media
00:26:11.640you can just find me on the council's website um look i've got i've got i've got the um the the x
00:26:18.940uh code is cfr.org stroke expert stroke gideon rose and you're on linkedin as well gideon was
00:26:25.720very grateful perhaps i might invite you now come back on at a future point we'll reach out
00:26:30.020talk about the um the korea um the korean analysis the parallels along with ukraine which we also
00:26:38.060need to dig into getting rose very very grateful for you to come on the show catch up again with
00:26:43.240you soon folks don't go away we'll be back in two short minutes after this commercial break
00:26:50.040We've got Ryan Bridge from Raise the Colors.
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00:28:05.020about $1,200. Today, it's around $4,500. Where will it be in 10 years from now? Text, ban, and
00:41:32.200as opposed, I mean this is a World Cup
00:41:34.420this is, you know, it's the home of football, our country
00:41:37.200we invented the game um we've only ever hosted it once in 66 the year that we won the thing
00:41:43.920um you know mexico's had it in their country three times now and and i just think that we
00:41:50.040are getting that far distance away from our identity of of great britain of england that
00:41:57.960it's it's just getting out of control we're getting numb to so many things on the way home
00:42:03.180tonight the motorways um which we've got here three lane motorways there was some guys on there
00:42:09.280they look like they're from south sudanera treya and they're literally riding down there on push
00:42:14.040bikes um on line bikes that you know when you put the you put the things in on the line bikes
00:42:19.840they're riding down the middle of the highway on them it's just like crazy these people are from a0.98
00:42:24.360third world and they're bringing their traits into our country and our government are pondering to0.99
00:42:28.940this hence the detention centers can't wear a badge of their own country to let these people0.95
00:42:35.600know that you're in this country now it's just crazy import the third world become the third
00:42:41.740world so i'll tell you i'll just list out some of these these um councils that have um prohibited
00:42:49.760the flying of english flags the flag of saint george as you point out local authorities such
00:42:55.240as Bristol, Wiltshire, South Gloucestershire have all issued notices on the grounds of,
00:43:07.720and I quote, these aren't scare quotes, these are actual quotes, community cohesion and health and safety,
00:43:15.960which just goes to indicate the Alice in Wonderland absolute insanity in the UK right now.
00:43:22.820Ryan Bridge, stay with us for a moment or two as I give a shout out to the sponsor of the second half of this show and then tell us what you're going to be doing this weekend because it's absolutely fascinating.
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00:44:49.520Okay, back now to Ryan Bridge. You are involved, sir, in the great coordination of popular anger uprising, and you're going to the heart of the beast in Brighton down on the south coast, a place in the UK where you haven't yet been banned from entering.
00:45:06.560um and there was like um and there was 20 local organizations or being i say local being shipped
00:45:14.860in of so-called anti-fascists who are agitating to come in exactly the same place to protest
00:45:21.040it would seem to me if the local authorities allow this to take place they are deliberately
00:45:25.400provoking um i think they're deliberately allowing for the incitement of violence there
00:45:30.840that they can say look look at these guys we need to suppress them tell me what's going on this
00:45:34.960weekend at brighton folks listening in the uk how do they come down and show up and give you support
00:45:41.140what's going on please i mean this is the fun part now because we are really looking forward
00:45:46.880to a carnival peaceful atmosphere nobody from the from the right side of of this country has ever
00:45:53.000gone through brighton they call it lefty central they call it uh the home of antifa antifa headquarters
00:46:00.000and all the rest of those names but we're not interested in those types of people we're
00:46:04.060interested in in our flag our country our togetherness and we want to show the people
00:46:10.020of brighton that that do that do live under the rules of of you know our country and our flag that
00:46:16.360we are there for them and that we believe in borders and we don't believe that there should1.00
00:46:20.980be open borders and people from the third world walking around our country so we are going to go1.00
00:46:25.520there bright and we're going to meet at 12 o'clock at the station um my very good friends there liam0.99
00:46:30.240and shana they have put this on there from the southeast patriots and they've invited us from
00:46:35.180raise the colors down there there's some great speakers going to be down there um we're gonna
00:46:40.000have siobhan white there who is um the mother of of um rest in peace riannon white who died to the
00:46:47.940hands of a of a sudanese migrant when he bludgeoned her 23 times with a screwdriver and she's going
00:46:53.260to be talking about her her journey with her daughter and the campaign to keep her daughter's
00:46:59.100memory alive due to starmer and our government will not speak to her at all um so we're going
00:47:05.020to be going down there we're going to be sort of supporting her and the people of brighton and
00:47:07.840we're going to be we're going to be marching through brighton we're going to be waving our
00:47:10.760flags we're having a great day and a great time i welcome everybody to come in the uk um and i
00:47:16.600just think we're going to have a a real good thing but the problem we've got is now these left are
00:47:21.900counter protesting against what we're doing and this isn't race religion color creed it doesn't
00:47:27.580matter this is about people that should be in our country and shouldn't be in our country and you
00:47:32.720can see that brighton hove news are trying to bring people from all fractions of the left wing
00:47:39.480to come down and go to counter protest against us and we've been reading the comments um you know
00:47:44.900they want to fill water balloons with urine and paint and throw them at us and this that and the
00:47:49.560other we're not going to be getting involved in any of that we're just going to be walking through
00:47:52.800loud and proud uh raising the colors and we're gonna have a great time tomorrow and i'm really
00:47:58.480looking forward to it hopefully i won't get arrested hopefully i will be able to see this
00:48:03.040one hey um you know because they seem to just take me off the streets before i do anything
00:48:07.780ryan i have to say if you do get arrested make sure you've got one of your colleagues
00:48:13.980videoing it with their phone you worry we're all set up you'll be getting exclusive footage
00:48:17.960yeah give me some material for next friday um the more the more out right um great actually i hope
00:48:26.720you don't take don't take this the wrong way i actually hope you get arrested um that's just
00:48:30.600well i'm sure we can i'm sure somebody will so if they do that we'll buy me and behind me we'll get
00:48:36.940that sorted but um i just want to see what these loony left lefties are going to be doing to us
00:48:41.720because for them to come out like this i mean this is the height of summer here in in the uk it's
00:48:46.220lovely and tomorrow everybody's really looking forward to this one so we're going to go out there0.87
00:48:51.700for the people of brighton and jokes aside there's there's a 30 year old vulnerable woman that was
00:48:57.020led down to the beach by three men that came over unvetted on a small boat dinghy and and they've
00:49:04.180raped and done done what they had to do with this woman and we're going to go down there to support1.00
00:49:08.400people like that to say that these people from the third world shouldn't be in there and you1.00
00:49:12.080shouldn't be scared to go on the beach at brighton um and that's what we're doing so we're going to1.00
00:49:16.960go down there tomorrow we're gonna have a great time and um we'll see what it brings and hopefully
00:49:22.320i'm sure we'll get some footage for next friday there make sure you do make sure you do um there's
00:49:29.780you mentioned the comments in these articles and i wanted to um to come back to having read
00:49:35.760the articles and the comments myself uh earlier on this afternoon i tell you what ryan what
00:49:41.540surprised me is the degree there were some left-wing agitators there for sure doing the
00:49:50.120trolling but there were a lot of people coming out defending you and the principles of your um
00:49:56.180of your presence in brighton saying that you should absolutely be free to come and protest
00:50:01.520because a lot of people are upset ordinary we know this is paid we know these people are
00:50:07.080busking and shifting by the left we know how it goes all across europe and the us and we know that
00:50:12.840we know that these these people um you know congress together and we'll go to different
00:50:19.440parts of the uk where we just want to show a bit of unity and love and show that we're all together
00:50:25.020under the banner of our country um you know and starmer's made the division with uk and the us
00:50:31.400which is strongly against what anybody from the right side of these countries about and we we
00:50:37.980just we just want to have a great day but these people will come tomorrow they will antagonize
00:50:42.520they will have their masks on they will have their their covers um and they will be you know
00:50:48.920shouting and screaming and bawling and doing what they do and hopefully they don't attack us like
00:50:52.920they do but we've got to remember that i think that these are the 10 of the uk um it just seems
00:50:59.420they look a lot bigger yeah and as i was saying the comments are showing uh an unprecedented
00:51:07.840level of popular support for what you're doing um in mainstream press that shows how engaged
00:51:14.180people are so once again very quickly we've got 60 seconds where do people go um on social media
00:51:20.440to find out about your presence in brighton tomorrow what time is it what time do they
00:52:34.460Everyone's focused on how the conflict in the Middle East is raising oil prices,
00:52:38.260but there's another grim reality to this contention.
00:52:42.740Oil isn't the only resource being constrained.
00:52:45.140About one-third of global fertilizer trade happens through this region.
00:52:49.420And with spring planting season on top of us, American farmers are sounding the alarm with some saying they can't afford to plant their fields.
00:52:57.580When one piece of the supply chain gets hit this hard, you know what comes next.
00:53:02.520Higher food prices, reduced availability, maybe even panic buying.
00:53:07.320That's why having an emergency food supply at home makes so much sense.
00:53:11.760And that's where our friends at MyPatriotSupply come in right now at preparewithbannon.com.