00:01:40.500And I'm going to, first of all, discuss that and then move on to the wider deterioration in France.
00:01:46.760I've got Charles Cornish Dale with us.
00:01:48.980Dr. Cornish Dale, doctor of philosophy, better known to the Twittersphere as raw egg nationalist.
00:02:00.700Dr. Cornish Dale, very welcome on to the war room.
00:02:05.700Um, firstly, now I have some takes myself about the Makerfield by election, but I want to hear
00:02:14.140firstly what your assessment is. Some people are suggesting this is a huge disappointment
00:02:21.460for Nigel Farage. Um, obviously he didn't win. There was some momentum after the local government
00:02:29.740elections recently, um, and some anticipation that he was going to win. I never really thought
00:02:35.640he was actually going to win this one, and I'll tell you why. First of all, you're there in the
00:02:40.500UK. What's your assessment of this and what it means for the momentum behind reform right now?
00:02:48.160And then we'll talk about the actual statistics and the breakdown of the results itself.
00:02:53.160It's great to be back on the war room. Yeah, no, crucial by-election last night in Makerfield,
00:02:58.940uh manchester area of the uk the north um it's a labor heartland i mean that's that's i think the
00:03:06.420first thing to remember this is a labor heartland and the uh the seat i think has been in labor
00:03:12.200hands for the best part of 100 years i mean this really is this really is a safe seat for labor
00:03:18.060it's a seat where they can rely on generational uh loyalty to the party and i think that's what
00:03:25.580they got with Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham got, I think, 50% of the vote. Reform got 35%.
00:03:33.720The insurgent party, Restore, led by Rupert Lowe, who was kicked out of Reform last year
00:03:39.640by Nigel Farage, got, I think, 7.8%. So, I mean, it was a very, very clear win for Andy Burnham,
00:03:48.680who is currently mayor of Manchester. And the thing about, you know, the thing I think you have
00:03:54.580to remember about mayors like the mayor of manchester is it's not particularly a difficult
00:04:00.080job it's a job that it's it's easy to be popular when you are the mayor of a city like manchester
00:04:05.660you know you put in some extra bus lanes you do some vanity infrastructure projects
00:04:10.580um uh it's kind of softball politics really and so he's popular in the local area he's well known
00:04:17.640he's referred to as andy he's referred to by his first name you know people see him as a member of
00:04:22.980the community it was always going to be Labour's seat to lose so yes I mean I agree with your
00:04:30.080assessment that actually it was unlikely that Nigel Farage's reform party with their candidate
00:04:36.100Rob Kenyon were going to do all that well and I mean I don't think Rob Kenyon was a great
00:04:42.180choice he's a local he's a plumber I mean he was a local local from the area but I don't think he
00:04:49.900was a great candidate um uh there were some controversies about facebook posts that were
00:04:56.320dug up where he said sort of derogatory things about a television presenter so they had some
00:05:02.260problems and but nevertheless i think i think what happened is exactly what we should have
00:05:07.060expected to happen yeah um firstly let's just go back a little bit because this needs to be dealt
00:05:16.320with in the analysis the overall analysis of what this means for british politics
00:05:21.760you mentioned that makerfield is a labour heartland and yet i think some people were
00:05:28.940looking at the statistics and the results from the local government elections when reform did
00:05:33.020very well and misinterpreted the the broader dynamics that allowed reform to do so well
00:05:40.880in that context in in those local government elections tell me how in just the the span of
00:05:47.820a couple of months that you can get that inversion uh and what the conclusion is that you draw from
00:05:53.900that well i mean i think it's important not to confuse local elections which are often
00:06:01.560they're often treated as a kind of protest vote you often get very different results in local
00:06:07.200elections from national elections people will often go out and vote in local elections who
00:06:12.340don't then go out and vote in parliamentary elections there's a there's an interesting
00:06:16.540dynamic uh and so it's a it's a very very uh mistaken attitude to think that oh yes well
00:06:24.240reform did amazingly well in the local elections which they really did i mean they swept the board
00:06:28.420uh but it's a mistake to think okay well that's going to translate then to a clean sweep in a
00:06:34.300general election or even a significant victory in a by-election so um yeah i mean it was it was easy
00:06:42.220i think with all the enthusiasm behind reform as a result of the uh local council elections to think
00:06:49.200oh this is going to be a queen a clean sweep too and it wasn't okay so let's um i want to run my
00:06:57.100thesis behind you now this is my take question i'd like to know what what you think to my analysis
00:07:03.280So there are a couple of takeaways here. First of all, it would appear from this election, the by-election, the special election to Parliament yesterday.
00:07:17.060I just add for our largely American audience that in the UK, by tradition, elections, by-elections, general elections, they take place on Thursdays in the UK.
00:07:27.340Firstly, the Tory party, the Conservative party,
00:07:34.200Her Majesty's opposition in Parliament here in this election
00:07:38.280was just basically slightly above a few points above statistical zero, right?
00:07:47.260And Rupert Lowe's restore got, I think, three times,
00:07:50.720just over three times what the Conservatives got.
00:07:54.220As you point out, Nigel Farage's reform came in second, clear, clear, decisive second at around 35%.
00:08:03.540So here's my takeaway. It would appear that on the basis of this, and people do vote differently in by-elections from the way they vote in general elections, but it would appear from this result, reform is now firmly positioned itself as the official opposition.
00:08:22.820That would be the first thing I would say.
00:08:25.280And it has supplanted, at least in the north of England,
00:08:29.460and it absolutely supplanted the Tory party.
00:08:32.540That said, there were two other by-elections that took place yesterday.
00:08:36.340They weren't nearly as, I think it was Aberdeen, right?
00:12:16.680That's going to develop in the British press 100% moving forward.
00:12:21.940And I add for our American audience, you mentioned that he was the Andy Burnham.
00:12:27.000Just finishing then, I guess he's going to close it.
00:12:29.140He'll resign, I guess, as mayor of Manchester, which is one of the key cities in the north of England.
00:12:34.800His popular nickname in the British press was King of the North.
00:12:41.440And to some extent, that narrative is now going to be solidified.
00:12:45.700So you have all these things coming together.
00:12:47.700It was not the best result for reform, but is by no means the worst result.
00:12:53.520I still think there's a lot of momentum in the UK.
00:12:56.700A lot of love and support for Nigel Farage and for his movement probably wasn't the best instance to try and demonstrate that.
00:13:06.340Because to come back to your beginning point, Charles, Makerfield is the most traditional Labour heartland imaginable.
00:13:14.580Their voting for Nigel Farage in the local government elections in May wasn't so much a rejection of the Labour Party.
00:13:24.460It was a rejection of Keir Starmer that was betraying a lot of what the old red Labour, the working class vote hoped for to see in the Labour Party and which to them Andy Burnham represented, which is why I was never particularly enthusiastic about Nigel Farage sort of going so big on this particular by-election.
00:13:50.320It seemed pretty clear to me that that that that constituents at least was going to revert to type if they had a candidate that they could line up behind.
00:14:00.880That was my takeaway. Before I go to a quick ad break, I'll just get your assessment on those various points, if I may.
00:14:08.660Yeah, no, I think I think that's a that's a good series of points.
00:14:12.080I think you are right about reform being the de facto number two de facto opposition.
00:14:17.820now i don't think we can be in any doubt about that despite the quite surprising uh result in
00:14:25.200the aberdeen by-election where the conservatives picked up this their first gain in scotland for
00:14:30.100i think it was actually 60 years and what's more in a in a constituency that actually the
00:14:35.580conservatives really shafted really you know uh helped to destroy by um destroying the north
00:14:42.800the oil and gas industry. So that's interesting. But no, de facto number two, de facto opposition.
00:14:49.200I think you're right, too, about the failure of social media and also the backing of Elon Musk
00:14:57.700to project Restore into contention. I mean, my view about Restore has always been that they
00:15:04.580should operate as a pressure group, that they could work on reform to ensure that Nigel Farage
00:15:12.020doesn't deviate too far from the right, that he doesn't become too much of a centrist,
00:15:17.580that he doesn't compromise too much, especially on matters like immigration.
00:15:22.860And I think hopefully that's what Restore will go back to being and that they will do that
00:15:27.780effectively. And I think also actually your point about fielding a candidate, about whether or not
00:15:35.000Nigel Farage actually should have done that, is a point that a lot of people will miss. Farage
00:15:40.160didn't have to field a candidate here and as you say it has actually made Andy Burnham look like
00:15:47.100he might be the Nigel Farage slayer which Kemi Badenoch isn't and which Keir Starmer isn't and
00:15:53.400that may very well propel him through a leadership contest we know he wants a leadership contest
00:15:59.240the MP in Makerfield stood aside specifically so Andy Burnham could could become an MP and take a
00:16:06.540leadership contest it may but that may very well propel him now to the uh office of prime minister
00:16:13.480and then you know we could have a snap election called uh prime ministers or new prime ministers
00:16:19.840always get a popularity bounce that's a guaranteed so this could very well be this could very well
00:16:27.880lead actually to a new prime minister andy burnham and a renewed five years of labor
00:16:33.240government. I hope not, but that could happen. Charles Cornish, you just say there something
00:16:39.700which I didn't mention at the beginning, and I should have said that for a largely American
00:16:44.060audience in terms of context. The reason why this by-election, and you just said it,
00:16:48.040the reason why this by-election was so important for British politics is because Andy Burnham left
00:16:54.100a key position in British politics, not in Parliament, but winning one of the UK's
00:17:00.640great cities. He hasn't been in Parliament for nine years. The reason why the incumbent stood
00:17:07.020down to let Andy Burnham stand in that seat was so that he could then launch a leadership
00:17:13.900challenge to Keir Starmer. By all accounts, he has the 83, 81 signatures from the Parliamentary
00:17:21.460Labour Party in order to formally challenge Keir Starmer. This is why this by-election is so
00:17:26.740important. Under the Labour Party rules, you have to be in Parliament to challenge for the leadership
00:17:33.180and therefore, seeing as they have the majority, to effectively become Prime Minister as well.
00:17:37.720I think that those series of events are almost 100% certain to take place this year. I think
00:17:44.900it'll be very quick, I think, very surgical, very clinical. I'd say within a few months,
00:17:52.320Andy Burnham will be Prime Minister of the UK. That would be my expectation. And I'm glad that
00:17:57.820you mentioned that that was the whole point, why it was so key that he was standing for election
00:18:04.100in Makerfield. Look, we're going to come and discuss your article now in The Spectator. First
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00:25:36.980uh i mean uh it's it's really kind of it's destroyed the country i mean it really has
00:25:42.900this sort of sense that there is there is no alternative than the conservative party you
00:25:47.380know if you're right wing well obviously you can't vote for labor so who are you going to
00:25:50.760vote for you're going to vote for the conservatives even though the conservatives have increased
00:25:54.920levels of legal mass immigration to you know past the one million people a year mark right
00:25:59.940or you've just still got to vote for the conservatives well no let's have some choice
00:26:03.980and let's have some some real strategy if you can respond to this in 30 seconds
00:26:10.340from what you're saying are you a proponent of proportional representation or do you prefer the
00:26:16.460first past the post system i think proportional representation leads to coalitions too often
00:26:23.140uh first past the post generally leads to stronger government than if you get a good strong
00:26:28.860government that's much better but of course it does keep it does keep sort of pressure movements
00:26:34.960as it were locked out of the political system uh back with dr charles cornish dale in two minutes
00:26:42.140after this short break to discuss his absolutely superb article in the spectator about french
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00:31:44.640be part of the movement welcome back folks for those who've just joined us here today with dr
00:31:50.860Charles Cornish Dale, key analyst on British politics and politics generally, known more widely in social media as raw egg nationalist, Dr. Cornish Dale.
00:32:08.560So you have written this article in The Spectator.
00:32:12.940It's funny how it's a sign of the times, because 10 years ago, this would have been sort of really edgy themes that you were touching here.
00:32:23.160And today is an indication of how how the political discourse is moving, how the Overton window itself is moving.
00:32:31.600It's it's yeah, that's all right. I can agree with that.
00:32:35.240And you're basically talking about France and the demographic changes that it's been witnessing really from North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa over recent decades.
00:32:49.640And you're citing Renaud Camus, the great French public intellectual behind the great replacement theory here.
00:32:59.980One of the things that you said in your article, which I thought was particularly spot on, certainly for France, and might sort of, also for the UK, but in a different way for the UK, is that you say that France hasn't been able to truly grapple the significance of the great replacement.
00:33:24.920because, and I quote, you're saying your attribution to French law and custom
00:33:30.900preventing the full understanding of these changes.
00:33:36.320I think it's more probably of the law prohibition,
00:33:40.100and I'm going to ask you to say a bit more about that in terms of the French constitution.
00:33:45.900On our side, I think it's probably more custom that prevents serious analysis of these points.
00:33:54.340But when you write that, because I think it is spot on, could you just talk through with the Warren Posse exactly what you mean by that?
00:34:01.860Why do you say French law and custom prevents a full understanding of the demographic changes over there under the side of the English Channel?
00:34:12.760Yeah, so this is an interesting thing about the French system.
00:34:16.140So, I mean, a lot of governments across the Western world and certainly in Europe do their very best to hide immigration statistics.
00:34:24.520You know, they they they stop recording the ethnicity of crime perpetrators, for example,
00:34:31.440so that, you know, people can't point out that there's a vast disparity in terms of violent crime.
00:34:36.820You know, that immigrants, for example, you know, commit rape or murder, violent theft, etc., at a vastly disproportional rate.
00:34:46.140In France, it's always been the case that the government hasn't been allowed to take census statistics on the basis of race and ethnicity.
00:34:57.200So it's built into the French constitution.
00:35:00.720It's seen as being a threat to the notion that France is a republic that is indivisible and the people are indivisible.
00:35:09.680You are all citizens equally. And if the government were to start sort of treating you differently on the basis of ethnicity or race, even simply by, you know, collecting racial or ethnic statistics, that will be a threat to the integrity of the republic.
00:35:26.580And that was, you know, that's rooted also, I think, in the French experience of World War Two, the fate of France's Jews during World War Two.
00:35:38.160There's a sense, you know, that we don't want to go back to a state where actually the government could actively persecute minorities.
00:35:46.220And there are data protection laws in France as well that bolster these legal positions.
00:35:54.100You know, it just is. It's just illegal to take ethnic and racial statistics.
00:36:00.160And so it's very difficult. Everybody knows that demographic change is happening.
00:36:05.100You know, I mean, one of the great French authors, Michel Welbeck, you know, has written extensively about in his novels about demographic change submission, in particular 2015.
00:36:17.360you know, this novel about an Islamized France. No Frenchman can deny that the demographics of
00:36:23.800France are changing like the demographics of other countries in Europe, and that they're
00:36:27.680changing significantly. But what's been difficult has been actually, you know, giving a precise
00:36:34.920understanding of the change, you know, what what percentage of the French population
00:36:40.260are immigrants or descendants of recent immigrants? Well, the piece that I wrote for
00:36:46.900the spectator in particular focuses on a new study that was carried out by france's premier
00:36:52.680demographic institute where they did thousands and thousands of interviews over a period of sort
00:36:57.980of four or five years and were able to quantify for the first time really the exact proportion of
00:37:04.180uh the population that is immigrants or the recent descendants of immigrants on that point
00:37:10.780because this is the National Institute of Demographic Studies, the IEDD,
00:37:16.560and they did an interview over many years, I think,
00:37:21.260over the last six, seven years, talking to 30,000 people individually.
00:37:26.700How were they able to do that with the constitutional prohibition
00:37:30.840on data collection by ethnic categories?
00:37:34.920Does that constitutional prohibition apply only to the, I guess,
00:37:39.700the french equivalent of the federal government but other organizations are allowed to do that
00:37:44.680is that is that the case there yes basically so this is a this is a non-governmental think tank
00:37:51.420as far as i'm aware and so yeah the the constitutional prohibitions uh don't extend
00:37:58.060beyond the government so yeah so they they've been able to do this they've been able to carry
00:38:03.040out this extensive uh series of interviews and surveys 30 000 people over a period of
00:38:09.440at least you know half a decade specifically about ethnicity uh and race and and dissent but
00:38:16.580the french government wouldn't be able to do that but because this isn't a government body then they
00:38:21.420have been able to do it all right so on the basis of this report by the ined it says and it's pretty
00:38:30.740comprehensive it's a pool of as i was saying 30 000 different people they say 34 this is the
00:38:38.560headline figure right the headline takeaway of this report 34 percent of France's population
00:38:43.780just over one-third are either immigrants or the children or grandchildren of immigrants now at
00:38:51.000this point you might remember that a similar debate was taking place a couple of years ago
00:38:56.280on Twitter that I noticed um about the UK context and some statistic was cited with regards to the
00:39:04.920uk and if i'm not mistaken it was saeed kamal now lord kamal former member of the european
00:39:11.460parliament for london basically responded so what um and i think it was i think it was
00:39:19.040saeed kamal and i don't think from my memory of the the twitter exchange that anyone was
00:39:27.520really able to respond to him in a way that i thought um was was uh was sufficient so i'd like
00:39:38.340to give you i'd like to come i'd like to pose to you the lord kamal response there and and ask you
00:39:45.940to to suggest why that is important so here we go 34 of france's population is either immigrants
00:39:55.280or children or grandchildren of immigrants and the saeed kamar response is so what could you break
00:40:02.560that down for me because most people i have struggled to be able to to respond to that and
00:40:08.180in their struggle to be able to respond to that they have the doubt that will perhaps or perhaps
00:40:12.440you know it's just it's just a racist reflex but of course well i'm not a racist so um i'll
00:40:18.300shy away from trying to respond to it um and i don't think the objection i really don't think
00:40:26.060the reject the objection to this needs to be along racist lines i'm going to say i oppose the
00:40:31.780lord kamal so what to you and and see uh why you tell me that this is actually important
00:40:37.960well one thing i would say first of all is nobody's ever been asked
00:40:43.340These, you know, the decision to fundamentally alter the demographics of Western nations was not a consensual one.
00:40:53.600The people of France weren't ever asked, well, you know, would you like to change the demographics of France this fundamentally?
00:41:04.220The people of Britain weren't asked either. When Tony Blair in 1997, the new Labour government decided that mass immigration was going to be the policy and famously that it was going to be done to rub the right's nose in diversity.
00:41:20.260That was a that was a revelation that came out. Andrew Nether, former government advisor, advisor to Peter Mandelson, I believe, said that's why mass immigration was done.0.55
00:41:31.100It was done for political social reasons to change the country irretrievably.
00:41:36.440But the fundamental point, I think, really is just that, look, a country, a country changes when you change the people.0.89
00:41:43.940OK, I mean, this bizarre notion that you can just take someone from the other side of the world and plonk them in Europe, and so long as they adhere to certain values, so long as they have a piece of paper that says they are French or British or Danish or Norwegian or Spanish, then they are of that nationality is a nonsense, is a nonsense.0.94
00:42:09.180And I mean, I think one of the failures of the right actually has been across Europe has actually been in making the case that actually all of the negative changes that we've seen across Europe, the declining living standards, growing taxes, increasing crime, the changing culture, all of this is tied to mass immigration.0.97
00:42:32.240Because when you change the people of a nation, you change the nation fundamentally.0.56
00:42:39.320So, I mean, that's why it matters, because, you know, if the people of France, the actual French people want France to remain France, then they need to take they need to pay attention to demographics.
00:42:54.080And the same is true for England and for Germany and for every other nation across Europe.
00:42:59.200you know if you don't want your nations to change fundamentally then you have to be interested in
00:43:04.860demographics do you think that um that france has reached the point of no return
00:43:14.620i mean i i'm not a demographer so i can't tell you what things are going to look like in a
00:43:21.960generation or five years or ten years but i mean i certainly know that in a country like the uk
00:43:27.760then the birth rate situation is pretty dire and we have already or we are coming up on the point
00:43:34.380where actually uh less than fewer than 50 percent of all births are going to be white british
00:43:41.580children uh and that obviously must be some kind of uh demographic tipping point uh i mean
00:43:50.100you know you see on twitter a lot of posts about you know you'll see these videos they're kind of
00:43:55.220rage bait videos of Paris, and there are migrants everywhere. And there are sort of tents and
00:44:00.240cardboard boxes and rubbish. And people say, oh, Paris has fallen, France has fallen. I mean,
00:44:06.340I've been to Paris a few times recently. It's a lovely city. And actually, the demographic change
00:44:11.920isn't quite as visible as it's often made out to be. But nevertheless, two thirds of the population
00:44:20.060now are not of an immigrant background and i mean those changes i think are going to accelerate
00:44:27.320they are going to get worse unless you have a change in policy unless the government stops
00:44:33.100importing hundreds of thousands of uh immigrants a year you know france the french government has
00:44:39.000a mass immigration policy likely english government does as well do you believe the statistics that
00:44:46.560are coming out from the Office of National Statistics, the ONS, in the UK, when it's
00:44:51.200talking about ethnic minority composition of the UK being, what, about 10%?1.00
00:44:59.560Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's a good question. I mean, I'm not particularly inclined to trust1.00
00:45:06.900the government about statistics, no. And I mean, I certainly, I get the impression,
00:45:14.280And I actually get the impression with the UK that the government doesn't even know how many people are in the UK.
00:45:20.080This has been this has been speculated for a long time, actually, that the population of the UK could be as much as 10 million higher than is officially recorded in the census.
00:45:32.080Supermarket data famously seem to indicate, you know, so consumption patterns within supermarkets, which actually appear to be a better indicator of how many people are in the country.
00:45:44.280have suggested, I think, for the better part of 15, maybe even 20 years,
00:45:48.120that there are millions and millions more people in the country than the government acknowledges.
00:45:53.440So no, I don't have a great deal of faith in the figures.
00:46:00.340I don't know where in the UK, if you go on any bus and look out the window around any city centre,1.00
00:46:05.860I have no idea in the UK where the ethnic minority composition is 10%.
00:46:10.080I doubt it's even 10% on the Isle of Man.
00:46:12.220I think it's an in your face, straight up lie. And if people knew exactly what the situation was, I don't think even the police would be able to control the situation, not even the suppression and imprisoning people for that for their racy and spicy tweets would be able to control the situation.
00:46:48.460So probably if you have a couple of dollars tucked away
00:46:51.640and you want to spend it appropriately,
00:46:53.740put a few things out in the pantry, in the larder, in the basement.
00:46:57.760You never know when you might have need of them.
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00:49:23.300finishing off now the last two minutes of the show with Dr. Charles Cornish Dale
00:49:29.160raw egg nationalist listen I never got to ask you why do you call yourself raw egg nationalist
00:49:34.720yeah it's it's a it's a long story so there was a i mean i started out as an anonymous twitter
00:49:41.840poster and there was a hashtag going around hashtag raw egg nationalism that was about
00:49:48.560drinking raw eggs slonking is the technical term like a sort of 1950s 1960s bodybuilder
00:49:55.220and being a nationalist it was about the relationship between health and politics
00:50:01.420And that really, you know, has been one of the touchstones, actually, of my work over the last six years has been the way in which or the ways in which politics and health and fitness are implicated.
00:50:14.120And we've seen that come to the fore with the Make America Healthy Again movement under RFK Jr.
00:50:20.920Well, on that point, it's the first opportunity to talk about your book, The Last Men, Liberalism and the Death of Masculinity.