Bannon's War Room - June 25, 2026


WarRoom Battleground EP 1038： WSJ Reports That 60% Of Polymarket Disputes Resolved By UMA Wallets Linked To…Polymarket Accounts!


Episode Stats


Length

54 minutes

Words per minute

147.51

Word count

8,033

Sentence count

284

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

3

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 This is the primal scream of a dying regime.
00:00:07.640 Pray for our enemies, because we're going medieval on these people.
00:00:12.880 I got a free shot at all these networks lying about the people.
00:00:17.140 The people have had a belly full of it.
00:00:19.080 I know you don't like hearing that.
00:00:20.500 I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that,
00:00:22.240 but you're not going to stop it.
00:00:23.180 It's going to happen.
00:00:24.440 And where do people like that go to share the big lie?
00:00:27.840 Mega Media.
00:00:28.740 I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience.
00:00:34.620 Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose?
00:00:38.380 If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved.
00:00:44.680 War Room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Band.
00:00:47.980 Thursday, 25th of June, Anno Domini, 2026.
00:00:59.440 Harnwell here at the helm on Steve Bannon's War Room.
00:01:02.740 Well, folks, you might remember last Thursday I mentioned this story about Polymarket
00:01:08.580 that had got a lot of people on social media angry about.
00:01:12.460 And you won't believe the reaction that I have had following this short piece
00:01:17.300 that we've done probably one of the biggest things i've ever hit uh certainly uh outside of straight
00:01:24.140 up politics um i did invite folks to get in touch with me i'll give out that address again now i will
00:01:30.700 also give out my email address at the end of the show um it's ben at harnwell.it it for italy
00:01:39.320 Ben at Harnwell dot it. I'd ask you folks just to reach out to me only on this polymarket story that we're talking about on this instance, because I really just can't respond to everyone who writes in.
00:01:55.380 Though I do obviously read everything that comes in. OK, so what is this story then?
00:02:00.000 And just to give a recap, as I did last Thursday, one of the largest geopolitical trade markets event contract that was ever hosted by the Polymarket website, just a little bit under half a billion dollars in terms of total volume, ended very controversially on the 15th of June.
00:02:27.720 And in loose terms, Denver, if you wouldn't mind just putting that screen up and thanks very much,
00:02:33.680 then people can see exactly what we're talking about here.
00:02:36.560 That figure, by the way, is an old figure.
00:02:39.220 The most up-to-date figure I've got is here, according to the Polymarket website itself,
00:02:44.120 is basically $479 million, just a shade under half a billion dollars.
00:02:52.540 And this is basically that this market was about whether there would be a permanent ceasefire between Iran and America signed before.
00:03:05.200 And they had a whole series of dates because this thing was being rolled over basically from the end of February onwards.
00:03:11.520 But the date in question was the 15th of June.
00:03:15.660 And quite scandalously, this market was decided before the text of the MOU, the Memorandum of Understanding, had even been released.
00:03:33.120 98.9, I think, percent of the votes on the adjudicating body, before the text had even been released, saying it was a permanent ceasefire.
00:03:45.000 That goes massively against, by the way, what the White House is very clear about and President Trump.
00:03:49.800 They said very clearly this is a temporary ceasefire of 60 days to which Iran will be held to achieving certain targets.
00:04:02.680 Even though, just to give the other side's position here, Iran's negotiating position was explicitly it was interested in a permanent ceasefire.
00:04:11.880 So that's what it said. Now, after we did this show last week, I asked for people to get in touch with me if they were if perhaps if they had lost lost an investment on this.
00:04:24.680 and as i say a lot of people came in one of the people who reached out to me is going to join me
00:04:29.720 now and we're going to respect his request for anonymous anonymity so we'll just give his name
00:04:35.800 as jump j-u-m-p um in order to protect his right to privacy and his ability to discuss these things
00:04:45.720 freely um and one of the reasons for that no doubt is traders are still very much even though
00:04:51.560 they've lost a lot on this they are very much active on polymarket and obviously people won't
00:04:56.780 want to uh won't want to risk risk um adverse reactions on behalf of uh of a platform in this
00:05:05.420 way by speaking at two publicly so jump um very welcome here on to steve bannon's war i'm grateful
00:05:12.000 for you coming on uh now i thought what we would do to start off with because a lot of people will
00:05:17.560 have heard of polymarket being a predictions market they're cited all the time in the news
00:05:23.940 financial news political news increasingly as an interesting source an authoritative source to go to
00:05:31.000 when it comes on political events like who's going to win the midterms what have you all sorts of
00:05:36.560 things um but there are a lot of people as well that even though they've heard of polymarket they've
00:05:42.420 heard of calcium they've heard of the concept of predictions markets they won't necessarily know
00:05:47.720 exactly what they are how they work how they get involved in them whether they're legal to get
00:05:54.100 involved with they're not access isn't allowed in all countries so i thought before we talk about
00:06:00.360 this specific issue that the iran trade um uh we just you and i would just talk about what poly
00:06:09.740 market is or how it works. A lot of folks will know, but I think a lot of folks equally well
00:06:15.120 known will have some confusion. So why don't we start with this? What is a predictions market
00:06:20.720 and how does it work? Do you want me to jump in? Is my audio good here? Yeah, you're live now.
00:06:28.500 Okay, sounds good. It's a prediction market. It's actually surprisingly similar to a stock market,
00:06:35.340 a lot of the ways in how it works the only difference really is that the event contracts
00:06:41.300 they either go all the way up to one or to zero so that's basically a hundred percent or zero
00:06:46.780 so just like a stock market these have order books that you can place limit orders market orders
00:06:53.600 there's a spread between the bid and ask so they have all these different things you can
00:07:00.120 uh you can place these orders on they can be political markets uh are you you have something
00:07:06.280 to yeah no no no sorry um i didn't want to stop your flow but i did want to ask a question here
00:07:13.380 um when you say that a um it's uh the price goes between not zero and one dollar basically
00:07:24.600 that's a difference from from the standard stock market that can go yeah yeah yeah yeah how does
00:07:32.560 that work can you break that down and explain exactly why it works that way so it's basically
00:07:38.540 it's a binary contract in the the sense that it will have one of two resolutions basically either
00:07:45.920 the contract is successful or it fails at the end but while that's occurring uh before that
00:07:53.700 final resolution is reached that's when you'll have this what is basically a stock market it's
00:08:00.280 basically the same idea where you'll have a price at any particular time and the price basically
00:08:06.820 represents the percentage chance that the market believes the event will happen so for example
00:08:13.040 you might have a price at 37 cents or so that would that would be a 37 implied probability
00:08:20.640 that it will happen or that it will not happen it depends yeah so 37 percent if it if it has a 37
00:08:29.020 chance to happen you have the other side uh 63 chance that it won't happen so you can choose
00:08:35.960 you can you can either take the side that it will happen or it will won't happen and obviously those
00:08:41.500 are just you know one minus the other one they're the opposing and you can take either of those
00:08:46.440 options so when you say these are binary positions that's like something will happen america will win
00:08:53.840 the the world cup or it won't yeah so it's binary this will either happen or it won't and people
00:09:01.340 will come in and um and they'll think you know they'll think i think america's gonna win um
00:09:07.360 they'll see that perhaps the price is trading at i don't know 15 20 percent or basically cents to
00:09:14.720 be precise and they might say to themselves i think you know i don't need i don't even know
00:09:18.200 if they'll win or not but i think their market is undervaluing it so i will buy
00:09:22.180 in the expectation that the price will rise to say 45 and then i'll sell so you just yes that's
00:09:28.480 another possibility absolutely yep so you can you can buy and sell at any time so that's one
00:09:34.100 difference from say some people compare it to like a sports book you obviously you can't do that
00:09:38.480 um so you can buy and sell your position at any time you think it's underpriced you can buy it
00:09:44.200 you think it's overpriced, you can sell it.
00:09:46.080 You can just, even if you don't think it's overpriced,
00:09:48.260 maybe you want to just take profit, whatever,
00:09:50.720 just like the stock market, you can buy or sell at any time
00:09:53.760 until it resolves to zero or one.
00:09:57.480 So you can exit your position at any time?
00:10:01.340 Yes.
00:10:02.540 You don't have to wait until the resolution date?
00:10:05.660 You can literally any time,
00:10:07.560 unless Polymarket has a downtime of a few minutes or something,
00:10:12.780 because they do have some bugs.
00:10:14.200 But aside from that, literally any time of day, buy or sell your position.
00:10:21.640 And in the case in question, right, the trade in question, the market in question, the Iran permanent peace deal question before 15th of June, people could buy or sell according to whether they thought there was going to be a permanent ceasefire.
00:10:42.440 ceasefire a permanent agreement between iran and america they could and 15th and one thing
00:10:49.500 obviously this will we'll get into it later but also one factor that you do potentially need to
00:10:55.640 consider on these markets is it's you know you have will this happen won't this happen but you
00:11:01.420 also do have to bear in mind sometimes you know who is resolving this market and you know should
00:11:07.680 that influence your decision to trade it or not which most markets hopefully it's not complicated
00:11:12.900 but uh it is something it and it actually in some cases it does affect the market price of the
00:11:20.760 ongoing market uh people's uh prediction not only of the market but of who and how the market will
00:11:28.520 be resolved okay so it's as much as will this will happen will this happen this event um in
00:11:35.780 question happen or not but the question you're saying goes beyond that to yeah we'll resolve it
00:11:41.920 which okay which is unfortunate but it is it is a consideration yes um well you know what hold on
00:11:49.680 to that jump we're going to come just a quick shout out to our show sponsors now and we'll pick
00:11:55.020 up after that on exactly this issue on resolving it and we'll talk about what resolution is and
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00:15:27.840 So we were discussing resolution and you said just before the break jump
00:15:33.380 that it's not always the determining factor here of whether you think a specific market is going
00:15:43.620 to resolve in yes or no it's the question that people are trying to second guess how is this
00:15:51.220 issue going to be resolved what do we even mean here when we're talking about resolution and
00:15:56.780 being resolved what does that mean in the context of a poly markets so so resolution is basically
00:16:02.980 you know the finalization of a market you know is this a zero you know is it a loss is it a win
00:16:10.000 or does it simply stay open um so polymarket basically has two different ways that they
00:16:17.840 resolve markets um the first is basically or well i should say these this is mainly in terms of
00:16:24.120 disputed markets because undisputed markets are just resolved through this uh their cryptocurrency
00:16:29.560 token UMA. Somebody proposes a resolution, nobody disputes it, it resolves, people get
00:16:37.540 paid.
00:16:39.960 Okay, so hang on, let's just hold that. As far as Polymarket, I've seen as I've been
00:16:45.940 doing the research for this show, Polymarket says that like 98% of its positions resolve
00:16:57.760 without dispute right so we're talking with a very small minority here that goes yes but those
00:17:05.400 are obviously those are obviously the ones the most controversial of course but yes so um and
00:17:11.620 there are also markets that resolve without a dispute but that's a few of them just resolve
00:17:20.260 because nobody wants to put up the money to dispute them but most markets even even with
00:17:25.980 oh sorry what'd you say what what does that mean what does it mean um why do people need to put up
00:17:31.740 money to dispute something so so in order to propose in order to propose a resolution on
00:17:38.160 poly market uh somebody puts up a 750 bond to basically say yes i think this is the resolution
00:17:46.380 this market should be resolved um and if nobody disputes that they get that 750 back plus you
00:17:54.640 know just a couple of dollars for their effort in disputing the market so that's what it means
00:17:59.580 there's a time window isn't there for um yeah two hours yeah it might be four hours on some but it's
00:18:07.200 it's usually two hours which is very short um it's for something relatively on uncontroversial like
00:18:14.200 a sports game uh two hours is probably fine but for a complex geopolitical market where the
00:18:22.300 information is uncertain two hours is extremely limiting john let me ask you this on the precise
00:18:29.040 issue that which as i say has blown up and in in the mainstream media but also especially
00:18:36.420 uh in places like discord and and social media chats and what have you am i right in thinking
00:18:42.880 that the proposal for resolution of this specific market was submitted before the expiry of the
00:18:51.740 deadline. Yes, it's correct. That it is allowed if a market legitimately resolves before the
00:19:01.180 conclusion time, somebody is allowed to propose that it's been resolved. But something to be
00:19:09.920 aware of in these controversial markets is that a proposal can be made to put pressure on the
00:19:16.960 market. If somebody is willing to put up that $750 and wants to do it as quickly as some kind
00:19:25.120 of complicated information is released, that is an option that is available to people to kind of
00:19:30.800 force the hand of the market to either to resolve or to force somebody to pay to dispute it.
00:19:38.640 Bearing in mind that we're dealing with like many, many billions of dollars passing through
00:19:43.860 these prediction markets like Polymarket and Calci every month now.
00:19:49.900 The figure is accelerating astronomically, exponentially.
00:19:54.920 If somebody submits the $600 deposit to force a resolution before the deadline,
00:20:07.660 you say that there's like two hours.
00:20:09.120 How do people even know that that's taking place in order to dispute that action?
00:20:18.660 Theoretically, you could probably do it through the cryptocurrency itself.
00:20:22.860 But realistically, for most people, you basically just have to have the web page open and see that it's been proposed.
00:20:32.000 The other way you could see is if you notice a quick change to the value of your positions, you could kind of be like, wait, what's what's going on here? And just kind of look at it. But they're they're really you just kind of have to be there looking at it to be aware that a market has been proposed.
00:20:52.220 Because in the case of the position that we're talking about, this half a billion dollar geopolitical market, before the 15th of June deadline, midnight, if I'm not mistaken, on the 15th of June had even passed, the submission had been made to resolute in the favour of yes, right?
00:21:14.580 as i say before the text had even been released um that brings us onto the question as to why
00:21:22.360 would somebody do that before we do that i am right in thinking that you yourself had put down
00:21:27.800 your own money to try and um contest these um forced resolutions that you you put okay i might
00:21:35.860 So but, yeah, another thing is so theoretically, you know, anybody could dispute these.
00:21:46.980 So what you have is, of course, there are markets that are pretty unambiguous and are legitimately somebody proposes them.
00:21:55.120 They are finished. It's very simple. But you do also have these markets where these proposals are often made very quickly relative to information coming out.
00:22:06.720 And in some cases, again, they might be correct, but you have these very complicated markets, often with information coming out of places like Iran, where, you know, it's obviously difficult to get good information on what is even happening.
00:22:22.260 You only have two hours. And so, as we said, it costs $750 to propose a market. It also costs $750 to dispute a market. But you have to do that. It's kind of odd. You have to do that twice.
00:22:40.940 So it's effectively $1,500 to dispute a market. But because of how this UMA protocol of how the people who run that view the situation, you often will have to dispute something like six different markets.
00:22:57.520 so it could be up to nine thousand dollars or so to dispute a market and you have to make that
00:23:03.160 decision within a two-hour window so personally i think there are some issues there with that
00:23:10.380 system of forcing people in a two-hour window to make this complicated decision and if you don't
00:23:18.160 pay this nine thousand dollar dispute fee and nobody else does you simply just lose
00:23:23.780 you forfeit you forfeit yeah you it's gone so i was following this market yeah yeah so i'm just
00:23:31.340 saying you might think there are sometimes you like maybe you even do think you're on the
00:23:35.820 unfavorable side maybe you think you're on the favorable but even if you do think you're on the
00:23:40.500 unfavorable side you might end up in a situation where you think you legitimately have like a 20
00:23:45.820 25 chance still of how the rules might be interpreted but you have to pay nine thousand
00:23:51.740 dollars to see what happens and it just it just might not be worth it you might just have to give
00:23:58.040 up because your position is not worth that much money and um so i didn't really say it but so the
00:24:04.400 so if you win the disputes you get 750 plus 250 so basically 500 disappears to uma so basically
00:24:14.940 the gist of it is you need a 75 chance to win the dispute or you're losing money
00:24:20.380 so yeah there's some complications but no no um i was following this market in real time
00:24:29.600 uh i just want to say that i saw people invested on the no side they lost millions of dollars
00:24:37.580 over this um you it's all publicly traceable so you can go onto the website yourself yes
00:24:42.840 and see that there are people there who literally lost from one day to the next
00:24:48.340 millions of dollars yeah yeah there's something important for people to know so polymarkets
00:24:53.240 uh even though it's it's pseudo anonymous it's cryptocurrency um so everything you do is
00:24:59.460 trackable but it's not necessarily connected to your name so all of this information is in a way
00:25:05.480 public you know the wins and losses of different accounts um on individual markets overall so yes
00:25:12.500 Everything you do there is, even though it's not connected to your name, everything you do on this cryptocurrency address is it's in it's in the ledger permanently and can be seen.
00:25:24.980 So it is something people should know.
00:25:27.780 Jump, I'm going to ask you a question now.
00:25:29.820 And we've got about like a minute before we go to the commercial break.
00:25:33.460 Just give me a yes or no answer.
00:25:36.340 And then we'll expand on it some more afterwards.
00:25:39.320 is it your thesis and the people that you're the investors that you're in contact with on groups
00:25:49.600 like discord and what have you is it your thesis that and you mentioned that the uma the the oracle
00:25:58.020 that is delegated by the polymarket platform into officially
00:26:03.500 resolving these markets uh and or the disputes i should say is it your thesis that the people
00:26:12.600 who were involved in voting on this market were also position holders for the yes side
00:26:21.880 it's i would say it's overwhelmingly probable that some people were i mean it's difficult to
00:26:30.700 prove you'd uh i mean if people use the same cryptocurrency address you could potentially
00:26:37.500 track that they did it through on-chain uh transactions that's not exactly my my specialty
00:26:43.740 but that can be done however on that point on that point i actually have i actually have some 0.91
00:26:49.740 research i'm going to share it with you uh on on that point idiot because the answer to that 0.93
00:26:54.460 question is very revealing for exactly what's going wrong with polymarket folks don't go away 0.94
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00:32:51.880 Welcome back, folks.
00:32:53.020 Well, if you've just joined us for the first time,
00:32:54.820 I'm discussing Polymarket.
00:32:57.700 We're with a guest who's asked to remain anonymous,
00:33:01.500 a request that we will obviously willingly accommodate for this show,
00:33:09.460 who's giving us a lot of experience on how Polymarket,
00:33:15.140 the one of the world's leading prediction markets functions or doesn't function just before the
00:33:21.980 break i asked our guest who's asked to be used the to use the name the alias jump for the purposes
00:33:28.680 of this interview whether he believed this uma the resolution body the oracle which and i said it
00:33:35.920 resolved two percent of the contracts it's actually 0.2 percent tiny tiny fraction ever go into
00:33:43.920 dispute um but whether it's the the uma votes and we'll talk about how the how just now we'll
00:33:54.700 break this down about how it is these anonymous crypto wallets vote how they're weighted using
00:34:01.360 these tokens we'll avoid the technical specifics but it is interesting and essential to understand
00:34:06.960 the functioning of this website i asked our guest whether he believed that this vote the
00:34:13.860 largest geopolitical vote position on polymarket it was really their marquee market they were
00:34:20.540 pushing this very very hard on the iran usa permanent permanent permanent peace deal before
00:34:31.960 15th of june whether that vote was decided in favor of yes by the oracle the umar oracle
00:34:41.240 on the basis that those wallets that voted for yes
00:34:47.080 were in fact position holders for the yes vote.
00:34:51.560 And I want to come back to him and ask him to continue the point he was making on that
00:34:55.280 because I think everything now that we're going to be discussing
00:34:57.760 and taking this forward on Polymarket
00:35:00.460 will resolve around the integrity of these resolutions,
00:35:04.760 whether they are resolved in good faith or not.
00:35:07.940 Before I hand the microphone back to it, I will just quote this research from the Wall Street Journal, which is picked up in the news site Yellow.
00:35:18.360 And the journal's analysis of blockchain data found that at least 60% of ACTA UMA voters could be linked to polymarket accounts.
00:35:36.220 Right. That's something that Polymarket doesn't want you to know, that the organization that has effectively the unappealable voting authority to resolve all disputes on Polymarket, 60 percent of active UMA voters, their wallets could be linked to accounts on Polymarket.
00:36:03.200 And in more than 300 disputes, this is still picking up the Wall Street Journal's research, in more than 300 disputes, or nearly one in five, at least one voter held a financial stake in the outcome being decided.
00:36:23.980 Finally, the research indicates in most disputes, the 10 largest wallets controlled more than half the votes.
00:36:32.220 These are horrifying statistics for anyone who was investing in a no vote, believing they were participating in a prediction market, because it seems to me that the people who lost money on Polymarket's largest geopolitical bet, the people who lost money thought that they were betting on an outcome.
00:36:58.480 The people who won the money were people who were invested,
00:37:07.740 were voters who invested in that,
00:37:09.580 or people who were assuming that those large voters would swing the vote in the day.
00:37:16.440 Give me your thoughts and assessment, if you wouldn't mind, on that thesis.
00:37:20.520 um yeah so one thing to uh consider is so this um a token it's basically only actually cared about
00:37:31.520 by people participating in polymarket it's basically a dead cryptocurrency except for
00:37:38.140 its use here so it was at one point up to a peak of a two billion dollar market cap i'd have to
00:37:43.520 double check and now is around 40 million i believe so basically the only people who actually
00:37:50.600 care about this token are people on polymarket and for obvious reasons you can kind of make the jump
00:37:57.360 that again it's not you can't necessarily prove this easily but most of the early investors in
00:38:05.360 uma are probably people who uh had specifically wanted the token in order to vote like there
00:38:14.480 isn't much other reason to purchase this token unless you are interested in polymarket um so
00:38:21.640 again i mean we're kind of what is it sorry jump i i've i've got to jump in here um because the the
00:38:30.940 The thesis behind this, the whole architecture behind this was that what would keep the UMA votes honest true or honest was the idea that if the UMA wallet holders misused their position and resolved falsely the events contracts,
00:38:59.620 the token the the the crypto that they held
00:39:03.060 would depreciate in value because because the the point about uma was that it was supposed to be
00:39:09.680 that the token was supposed to have the value uh as a neutral independent arbiter right uh and if
00:39:17.980 people voted absolutely corruptly that that value would fall would fall but what you've just said
00:39:23.340 here um was that originally that might have actually worked if the if the token it's an
00:39:28.880 interesting idea it absolutely is but it's kind of in my opinion horrible and execution at this
00:39:35.500 point because you have this token that's worth you know maybe 40 million dollars resolving markets
00:39:41.800 that are maybe worth 40 million dollars so and if you already have this mark this this market
00:39:49.320 i mean for 40 million in terms of active uh positions but yes there's more the volume the
00:39:57.240 volume of this market the iran market where people lost millions the total volume of that
00:40:04.120 i was obviously going to be split between yes and no right but the the total volume of that was
00:40:08.640 480 million dollars so you're saying that technically for for these markets that are
00:40:15.280 that large um position holders could could technically buy the whole all the humor um
00:40:21.940 that are available, the tokens, all the tokens,
00:40:28.580 the voting tokens that exist could be bought
00:40:30.900 and they would amount to a tenth of the total position.
00:40:36.740 Polymarket has an unviable business proposition on this basis.
00:40:40.520 In some ways it's better than that and in some ways it's worse
00:40:44.380 because not all of these tokens are available on the market.
00:40:48.360 I believe there are still a couple of Risk Labs holders which created UMA, which might be large holders.
00:40:55.800 So you can't buy the tokens unless people sell them.
00:41:00.600 So on one hand, if you try to buy these tokens, you might drive the price up.
00:41:05.360 But on the other hand, you simply cannot buy all these tokens because, you know, a few of them are just going to be off the market.
00:41:12.800 So you have these people are basically locked in to this position.
00:41:17.480 I mean, certainly you could buy more tokens, but it's mostly just kind of these, you know, these age old holders and early investors or people who got into Polymarket early.
00:41:29.980 Those are going to be some of your biggest UMA holders.
00:41:34.400 Are you suggesting that a lot of these token holders are going to be old school ideologues who bought the token because they like the sort of libertarian concept behind it?
00:41:46.560 um but a lot well i mean um i mean so risk labs created uh um a so i i'm not a hundred percent
00:41:56.740 sure i'm just going from what i've heard from others but there are still a couple of old holders
00:42:01.320 from risk labs who do hold a very substantial amount of tokens and then you have a couple of
00:42:08.260 people you know some polymarket whales who were there in the early days of polymarkets when this
00:42:14.580 token was fairly cheap to pick up there was a lot of liquidity so as i said the market cap is only
00:42:20.580 40 million dollars or so i'd have to double check but it's in that range but if you because of the
00:42:26.840 lack of liquidity it would actually be difficult to pick up a substantial stake so it's just kind
00:42:34.500 of people are pretty entrenched into this coin but but we don't know because crypto wallet holders
00:42:41.780 are all anonymous so we actually have no idea so it's pseudonymous yes it's it's it's trackable
00:42:47.440 but anonymous so um it's basically if people want to be careful they can be careful and basically
00:42:54.840 hide you know who they are how many tokens they hold uh whether or not they're uh betting on
00:43:01.240 polymarket with the same wallet but some people either just be lazy or they i mean they don't
00:43:07.260 want to have to like try to launder money around so in some cases it is possible to track these
00:43:13.980 coins back to their origin you know who holds what who's betting where but it requires you know
00:43:20.140 analysis of the these uh blockchains which some people you know have uh uh programs that they
00:43:27.520 used to do but that's not something that's an expert in but that's what the wall street journal
00:43:34.100 has done when it comes out yes yes so they have people who know certainly more about that than i
00:43:39.240 do so but yes all right jump stay with me just gonna give out the quick we're at the halfway
00:43:44.640 point already of the the the second half of the show um i'll just give a quick shout out once
00:43:50.000 again to our show sponsors and then come back to you for your closing words now on basically what
00:43:56.220 you guys are doing now uh because there's talk of class action lawsuits and all sorts of things
00:44:01.760 to hold Polymarket to account on this.
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00:45:32.320 Okay, jump. We've got about six minutes left now. And I'm going to ask you to come back on the show
00:45:39.640 to keep us updated on what's going on. This isn't a story. This took place, as I say,
00:45:48.120 on the 15th of June. That's 10 days ago. This story isn't going away. In fact,
00:45:53.120 I think there's a certain degree of momentum there.
00:45:55.400 I was checking out the Polymarket website just before coming on air tonight,
00:46:00.320 and people are still, for a market that was closed 10 days ago,
00:46:05.380 people are still basically every few minutes going on there
00:46:09.700 and putting out very angry comments to do with Polymarket anger
00:46:16.420 at the way this was allowed to go.
00:46:18.980 because, as I say, Polymarket was aware there was an issue before resolution
00:46:23.880 and they stood by and did nothing.
00:46:25.760 Many users expected them to freeze, at least freeze, the accounts in real time
00:46:32.740 pending an evaluation.
00:46:36.340 Tell me, Jump, what's going on on Discord?
00:46:40.140 I hear a lot of talk about class action lawfare.
00:46:44.320 What are you – what's going on in terms of strategy-wise with the users who feel quite considerably angry having lost many, many hundreds of millions over this incident?
00:46:57.200 I guess in terms I would say personally for myself, I think the main strategy – maybe it's just pessimism.
00:47:05.100 But the main strategy for me is just to kind of make sure people understand how these markets work and just kind of put pressure on that way.
00:47:13.420 I haven't really looked into the class action. I'm kind of if I certainly will keep an eye out on things, but I'm actually not 100 percent sure, you know, the relative success rate of that.
00:47:25.440 Um, but just a couple, a couple more things to emphasize here, just going back to what
00:47:30.660 we said, um, these, uh, these UMA holders participating on the market, it's kind of
00:47:37.260 like, you know, we don't know for sure if they are, but it's kind of like giving a
00:47:41.280 hundred people the keys to your house and just kind of hoping nobody comes in and takes
00:47:45.960 your stuff.
00:47:46.640 Like it's almost guaranteed that they're participating.
00:47:50.400 It's why they, many of them bought the coin to begin with.
00:47:53.440 Like, it's effectively absolutely certain that some of the people, you know, batting on these markets are also the people that are voting to resolve them.
00:48:05.540 And just another thing to note, I mean, Polymarket themselves, from my own observation, I don't think they really trust UMA themselves even, because most of the time, as I said earlier, we don't have too much time, but there are two resolution methods on Polymarket.
00:48:23.300 One is that Polymarket resolves it themselves through a clarification.
00:48:29.120 So they say technically we're not resolving it, but they are.
00:48:32.540 They're telling the UMA how to vote.
00:48:34.460 They resolve it themselves.
00:48:35.820 They say this is what's going to happen on this market.
00:48:37.960 And the other is through UMA.
00:48:39.940 So I would say 80% to 90% of disputes, Polymarket resolves themselves.
00:48:45.240 But for whatever reason, this particular market, I mean, I believe they just probably wanted an accountability shield.
00:48:53.980 So they just decided to leave it to UMA for this market.
00:48:57.880 Why? You know, it's anybody's guess why they decided they didn't want to take the heats for this particular market.
00:49:04.940 But I think I think this market was too large and too well known.
00:49:08.940 There were previous markets that have been resolved to do with, for example, we'll cover these in future shows, the mineral steel between the US and Ukraine.
00:49:19.220 That was a big similarly resolved on the basis of a mineral steel had been signed and it hadn't been signed.
00:49:30.080 There was a Bitcoin issue, I think, to do with the price of Bitcoin a couple of months ago.
00:49:35.640 So these things do – they are present in the background.
00:49:40.500 Yeah, we don't have time to discuss it, but the minerals one was a very kind of crazy UMA abuse, effectively, of the system.
00:49:48.400 But we don't – it was intentionally done when Polymarket wasn't even there.
00:49:52.740 But yeah, it was –
00:49:54.640 Let me take the final 90 seconds and say this right.
00:49:59.400 As far as I'm aware, looking at the anger in the comments on Polymarket, which is where I go to rather than Discord, because I don't know how to use Discord.
00:50:09.660 It seems to me that what people are angry about is not only about the injustice, but because they feel betrayed by Polymarket.
00:50:17.720 They had a huge amount of goodwill towards Polymarket as a predictions market platform.
00:50:25.640 they wanted it to work and also they correctly anticipated a future event and they feel not
00:50:32.940 only have they been cheated out of that but polymarket has done nothing to protect their
00:50:38.620 interest and because this is their largest geopolitical uh market there are some sports
00:50:44.560 markets that have had more than half a billion dollars and but because this was their their
00:50:48.960 marquee geopolitical market they certainly knew what was happening here they could see it they
00:50:54.940 were watching it on their own screens and they did nothing to step in to protect the interests
00:51:00.140 of their users. Please go ahead. If Polymarket had themselves taken responsibility and resolved
00:51:06.880 this, even if they resolved it against me, I would have been unhappy, but I wouldn't be here
00:51:11.720 talking to you right now. It's because they left it to this highly biased cryptocurrency coin
00:51:19.800 that I personally don't trust. I don't think Polymarket trusts. I don't think many people
00:51:24.340 trusted because they left it to these uh token holders cryptocurrency tokens pseudo anonymous
00:51:30.860 cryptocurrency token holders who could be participating in this market in itself and
00:51:35.540 almost assuredly are you know because that's how they chose to do this to not take responsibility
00:51:41.540 themselves that's why i'm here all right um jump i am very grateful for you look um there is a site
00:51:49.720 i know it's not your site but i will mention it now for people to check out this was also sent to
00:51:54.200 me following uh the the public service announcement i gave last week you can go to polymarketscam.com
00:52:01.080 i mean it tells you where it's coming from on there there's no polymarketscam.com that has a
00:52:05.920 lot of information for people to check out jump you tell me where do people where can people go
00:52:11.120 in the meantime we'll continue to follow this uh because a lot of our viewers have been affected
00:52:16.900 by this just where do people go from your part i know you're involved in discord uh and and
00:52:23.860 getting sort of channeling the anger there well where would you direct people to go uh to get
00:52:29.060 more information on this one that's actually it's unfortunately a very difficult question i mean
00:52:35.180 that's basically why i'm here you know try to get information out you know try to get people to
00:52:39.980 understand the options are pretty difficult you could go to discord the polymarket discord but i
00:52:46.200 mean that's the equivalent sometimes it's like a twitter stream where it's just kind of a cacophony
00:52:51.200 of you know people talking so it's actually very difficult i wish i had a better answer for you
00:52:56.600 i'll see i continue to kind of look if there's any news myself but just getting word out now is
00:53:02.320 kind of the that's what we'll do you as i gave the address out before ben at hornwell.it ben
00:53:09.820 at hornwell.it for italy write to me there in the meantime and then share your experiences with me
00:53:15.960 that's all we've got time for thanks to jump and thanks to will a real america's a voice in denver
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