Bannon's War Room - WarRoom Battleground EP 1043： Within One Month Of WarRoom Covering Polymarket Scam, Polymarket Is Now Under federal Investigation

00:00:00.000 UMA is an infrastructure for DeFi protocols to build off of.

00:00:04.000 Our core innovation is this optimistic Oracle

00:00:07.000 that we believe can power a DeFi protocol to know any bit of data it needs.

00:00:13.000 An optimistic Oracle is a type of Oracle where anyone can request a piece of data

00:00:19.000 and it will be taken as true if it's not disputed.

00:00:22.000 That means not just like price data, not like the price of Ethereum or the price of Bitcoin,

00:00:27.000 but also facts like how big your community is,

00:00:30.420 whether certain metrics have been hit,

00:00:32.880 whether a contract was fulfilled.

00:00:35.320 And our Oracle design is very broad and open-ended

00:00:38.080 in terms of the types of questions or data you can ask.

00:00:40.480 Now, the important part of this whole system

00:00:42.840 is that all of the different actors,

00:00:44.900 they have economic incentives to do the right thing.

00:00:48.460 And what's really cool is we've tested this Oracle

00:00:50.820 over the last year, and it works.

00:00:53.700 Basically, people are proposing the right things,

00:00:56.120 and on the occasion that the wrong thing is proposed,

00:00:58.320 it's disputed.

00:00:59.460 But it's actually very, very rare that there's a dispute

00:01:01.760 because the financial incentives are lined up

00:01:03.960 so that people want to give the right answer.

00:01:08.860 This is the primal scream of a dying regime.

00:01:13.780 Pray for our enemies,

00:01:15.840 because we're going to medieval on these people.

00:01:18.880 Here's what I got a free shot

00:01:20.120 at all these networks lying about the people.

00:01:23.120 The people have had a belly full of it.

00:01:25.120 I know you don't like hearing that.

00:01:26.520 I know you've tried to do everything in the world to stop that,

00:01:28.220 but you're not going to stop it.

00:01:29.160 It's going to happen.

00:01:30.420 And where do people like that go to share the big line?

00:01:33.820 Mega Media.

00:01:34.740 I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience.

00:01:40.620 Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose?

00:01:44.380 If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved.

00:01:50.660 War Room.

00:01:51.600 Here's your host, Stephen K. Band.

00:01:55.120 Thursday, 2nd of July, Anno Domini, 2026.

00:02:05.080 Harnell here at the helm on Steve Bannon's War Room.

00:02:09.040 First of all, I want to thank you guys

00:02:11.860 for this series of shows we've done

00:02:14.880 digging down on Polymarket.

00:02:17.800 I know a lot of folks out there use Polymarket.

00:02:22.680 And we've had a lot of feedback.

00:02:24.260 do keep it coming my uh the address that i have set up especially for this is ben at harnwell.it

00:02:32.980 for italy ben at harnwell.it do um continue to send in especially if you've had

00:02:41.280 an experience on trading on polymarket like um uh like what we're discussing here on the show i do

00:02:51.020 want to hear from you uh also if you had a good experience let us know um but everything that you

00:02:58.600 heard there in the cold open just before the show credits is happy talk

00:03:06.200 i would probably suggest anecdotally that 95 96 97 98 of what takes place on

00:03:17.920 a prediction market

00:03:20.220 platform, especially

00:03:21.980 we're talking really about Polymarket

00:03:23.780 rather than Calci over these

00:03:26.220 shows

00:03:27.060 is

00:03:29.580 your conventional run-of-the-mill

00:03:32.460 trade on

00:03:34.480 on events

00:03:36.560 events prediction

00:03:37.900 it is what it says on

00:03:39.560 the tin

00:03:41.260 those are the

00:03:44.420 smaller trades, the smaller positions

00:03:46.380 The larger ones excite the manipulatory potential of precisely that UMA optimistic oracle that decides on the outcome of these positions.

00:04:02.720 And the reason why we're putting these shows together is because Polymarket's marquee geopolitical market on the Iran-U.S. permanent ceasefire agreement, which had about half a billion dollars, a little less than half a billion dollars worth of trade.

00:04:30.180 Many people on this show had a little position on that.

00:04:35.460 That was large enough to attract the anonymous wallets that decide the outcomes of these positions on this UMA optimistic.

00:04:53.680 Oracle, as it's called.

00:04:55.460 And the suspicion is, and this is what we're digging down into, that the very anonymous crypto wallets that are entrusted in deciding all of the contested events contracts are themselves large.

00:05:25.460 position holders on those very positions i'm trying not to use the word bet because i don't

00:05:32.340 want to get into the argument as to whether predictions markets are betting websites i

00:05:39.140 personally don't think they are um but that's the least i think of the problems that these guys need

00:05:46.020 to worry about that the issue is fundamentally that a lot of innocent people are participating

00:05:52.420 on these websites specifically as we're digging into polymarket right now they are putting a lot

00:05:59.700 of money down on polymarket thinking that it is a predictions market on the outcome of an event

00:06:06.820 and as i say for the smaller bits that's probably true for the larger ones

00:06:14.500 not necessarily true not necessarily true and some people and i've done the research on this i i've

00:06:19.940 Because it's all the thing about blockchain and crypto, it's all traceable, it's all transparent.

00:06:27.780 And having followed this and done my research on this, there were people who lost millions of dollars on that.

00:06:34.460 Okay, so a guy, an investor on Polymarket who has asked us to respect his desire for anonymity,

00:06:46.540 and we'll call him Jump, that is his name for the purposes of this.

00:06:52.100 He joined us last Thursday, he's back here joining us today.

00:06:56.000 Jump, many thanks indeed for coming back on the show

00:06:59.880 as we dive into this now.

00:07:03.400 So just to recap, thanks Jump.

00:07:06.140 So just to recap, this issue here,

00:07:08.480 and that figure is larger than that was a figure some time ago.

00:07:13.000 The figure is substantially more than 345 million.

00:07:16.540 It was up to, I think, something like $480 million by the time the market closed.

00:07:25.260 That issue was fundamentally, that was a market that was to do with people either believing or not believing that by a certain date, there was going to be a permanent ceasefire.

00:07:42.400 permanent ceasefire explicitly it's in the terms of resolution explicitly not a temporary

00:07:50.440 provisional ceasefire yeah and for those who for those who aren't familiar with polymarket there

00:07:56.920 were maybe probably eight to ten or so of these markets ceasefire markets agreement markets and

00:08:02.640 what made this one special is it was very much supposed to be out about the permanency of this

00:08:09.260 resolution so that's very fundamental to uh what this was about and was supposed to be you know a

00:08:15.820 requirement in order to resolve this is yes that it would be an absolutely permanent agreement here

00:08:22.280 because i mean a lot of people and you can read the comments at the bottom of of this page a lot

00:08:31.220 of people believed that there would be a provisional ceasefire before the deadline they

00:08:38.180 just said it's not going to be a permanent ceasefire. It's because they were paying attention

00:08:41.760 to the sounds coming out of the White House, that President Trump wasn't prepared to sign

00:08:49.380 everything away on a permanent deal. He wanted a provisional, temporary deal, and he wanted

00:08:54.300 to hold the Iranians to that. That was very much, his thinking is quite clear on that. 0.99

00:08:58.860 In fact, just for the avoidance of doubt, we have two very short video clips to play

00:09:05.320 You know, Denver, if you would be so kind as to play both the president and Marco Rubio,

00:09:12.940 and we can hear them say what they were doing in their own words.

00:09:18.140 The facts to the agreement are now final, or are you still...

00:09:21.060 No, it's not final. It's a memorandum of understanding.

00:09:23.680 And if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head. 1.00

00:09:29.780 What do you expect? If I don't like it, if they don't behave, 1.00

00:09:33.440 will go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head. 0.85

00:09:38.580 Mr. Secretary, the MOU did not include a specific number of years

00:09:43.020 during which Iran could not develop nuclear weapons.

00:09:46.220 Should a final agreement have a specific number, and is the U.S. pushing for that?

00:09:49.720 No, that's why an MOU would not have that, because the MOU is not a final agreement.

00:09:53.260 An MOU just creates the construct and the outlines for a negotiation.

00:09:56.880 And there's no doubt that as part of that negotiation,

00:09:59.300 very specific terms like years and limits will be discussed,

00:10:02.540 And that includes the mechanisms by which it's verified and enforced.

00:10:07.640 So that's pretty clear then.

00:10:12.420 The U.S. administration there confirming what it had done.

00:10:18.420 It was a temporary provisional deal.

00:10:23.260 Now, the reason I think...

00:10:25.440 If I could jump in.

00:10:26.280 I think jump...

00:10:27.580 Yeah, please, please do.

00:10:28.980 Yeah, so just kind of reiterating.

00:10:31.100 So it was pretty quick. But that Marco Rubio statement, you know, I'll just repeat it.

00:10:35.880 An MOU is not a final agreement. An MOU just creates the construct and the outlines for a negotiation.

00:10:43.000 So he's really explicitly saying here, you know, what did the MOU did?

00:10:47.000 It only created this framework. It only created the set of conditions to allow this continued negotiation.

00:10:53.880 So he absolutely couldn't be more more clear for that.

00:10:58.080 And just as a thought experiment, imagine if this really was a permanent peace deal. Imagine how inaccurate that statement would be, how big of an omission. He's being asked about this, and he's describing what the MOU does, and he says, look, this is all it does.

00:11:17.140 You know, it created these temporary conditions to allow us to continue negotiation, but that's all.

00:11:24.520 Imagine how much of an oversight it would be if, you know, this was a permanent peace between Iran and the United States.

00:11:31.700 And, you know, he just absolutely forgot to mention it.

00:11:35.280 So it's very clear that this is, as he said, you know, a temporary agreement to facilitate further negotiation.

00:11:43.380 And again, you can see Trump, you know, same thing.

00:11:46.140 He's asked about it. You know, he says, oh, no, it's only a memorandum of understanding, you know, as if it's very obvious.

00:11:53.660 Of course, of course, it's not a final deal. It's a memorandum of understanding.

00:11:58.900 And, you know, so he treats Trump treats this as an ongoing negotiation process and says, you know, if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at him.

00:12:06.980 It's in this case, of course, referring to the ongoing negotiation process because he's specifically asked by the reporter twice.

00:12:14.480 you know is this a final deal is this text final is this finally he's like no it's a memorandum

00:12:20.140 of understanding it's ongoing negotiation if i don't like it well you will drop bombs on their

00:12:25.700 head so it's you you cannot be much more clear than that you can't be much clear than that and

00:12:32.200 whilst there have been look we're gonna just i'm gonna do a shout out to to our show sponsor in a

00:12:38.240 moment and we're going to come back and discuss another one of these issues controversies whilst

00:12:46.820 digging in and doing my research on this there have been quite a number of contentiously

00:12:52.800 controversially decided controversially resolved markets and even though it's clear i think the

00:13:03.760 market had one interpretation of the words and the uma oracle squeezed in another interpretation

00:13:11.560 of the words that i think is the danger latent in the game this market however and the one we're

00:13:18.960 going to discuss afterwards that is pretty that there's no wiggle room for good faith

00:13:23.840 interpretation on that it's pretty clear and i say on this one as i said this was polymarket

00:13:30.140 This wasn't a small incidental market that no one was paying attention to.

00:13:34.740 This was their marquee geopolitical trade.

00:13:38.960 This is the one they were pushing for two months.

00:13:41.880 It was the one they were pushing out by emails.

00:13:43.680 It's the one that they were putting their publicity on.

00:13:46.520 They wanted people involved in this.

00:13:50.140 And I say, why do I say that there's no wiggle room for good faith interpretation here?

00:13:55.880 because the deadline and it was a movable feast it was renewable i think you said jump that they

00:14:04.100 had about 10 different iterations of this they just kept rolling a bunch of different dates

00:14:08.040 the date the one the one that it was you know i can tell you exactly what they were right

00:14:12.940 we started off on uh june june 15th during the 15th what was what was the key one uh that that

00:14:22.320 that was forced to resolution, that motion to resolve that market to yes

00:14:31.020 was moved before the deadline was even up.

00:14:36.820 And after a three-day, very contentious period when the UMA wallets were voting,

00:14:46.320 after the three-day deadline, they deposited their sentence effectively

00:14:55.540 before the text of the resolution had even been released.

00:15:06.360 If you remember back during the 15th period, no one quite knew both sides were saying

00:15:13.600 we'd signed it we're going to release the text i think it was friday they said uh in um in in

00:15:19.460 switzerland and then they released it i i think on thursday or something like that but for the

00:15:24.680 whole of the voting period right that text had not been released and yet the the uma oracle was

00:15:32.080 voting on fulfillment without knowing what the terms were so there's no good faith interpretation

00:15:38.300 to to clarify one thing hold on hold on hold on if you wouldn't mind uh let me do the quick shout

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00:18:06.580 what your options are all right okay jump um word to you you want to clarify something

00:18:12.260 So the market does, the rules on this particular market, they give two pretty explicit ways that the yes resolution can be met on the market.

00:18:28.240 One is what you said, you know, an actual signed formal agreement between the two parties.

00:18:33.700 And there is this second condition that could be used to resolve it.

00:18:37.400 And that's if both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established.

00:18:48.640 Negotiations, progress, you know, all those other short-term things that are not a definitive agreement do not count.

00:18:55.840 So those are the two possible criteria to resolve the market.

00:19:00.360 You know, one, you know, with absolute certainty, obviously, no signed agreement.

00:19:04.740 so the only way it could resolve yes is this second one and as you see people on the discord

00:19:11.660 i mean which is unfortunately where effectively these these arguments happen you know these

00:19:17.760 you know tens of millions hundreds could can you just say a quick word what discord is

00:19:24.640 yeah yeah so discord it's basically like an online chat room where you know um most most discords

00:19:33.320 are open to the public though a few might be private uh you just click a link uh you join

00:19:39.900 the discord you make an account and then you can talk to people in these it's it's effectively uh

00:19:45.420 kind of a continuous online chat room uh they'll have different channels and sub channels sometimes

00:19:52.080 some discords might have a main channel um but so what i was talking about this specific discord

00:19:58.280 is for UMA, or Yuma. I always tend to call it UMA in my head. But yeah, this Yuma Discord,

00:20:07.180 it's where the argumentation happens for these disputed markets. It's kind of this semi-official

00:20:15.280 Yuma Discord. So it's where all of these disputes happen. People can register for the Discord.

00:20:21.500 They can kind of make their statements about the disputes. And I do want to say,

00:20:26.760 So these statements are not the votes. The vote goes on the blockchain. That's separate. But this is where you can make your case, you know, what this dispute should be.

00:20:35.960 And so, again, this these, you know, tens and hundred million dollar markets are just being decided by what are effectively just a bunch of random people on Discord.

00:20:47.700 And you'll look for this particular market. And for most markets, obviously, these are just random people. The quality of their argument is varied. And what we saw in this particular market is most people actually ignored these conditions or treated it very loosely.

00:21:08.160 So again, the requirements for a yes resolution is that both the government of the United States and Iran needed to provide clear public confirmation.

00:21:19.220 And what we saw in most of the arguments, people only mentioned a statement of Iran where they used the word permanent peace, even though that statement was conditional on ongoing negotiations.

00:21:31.700 But they did use the word permanent peace in a statement released by the Iranian Security Council.

00:21:37.320 And so that was kind of what most of these yes holders used to get their – to argue for their points.

00:21:45.820 And then they kind of combined this.

00:21:48.860 Unless I'm mistaken, even so, that text was released by the Iranians after the deadline of the 15th of June, right?

00:21:57.260 So the actual text of the resolution was after the deadline, but the statements by the Iranian Security Council was before the deadline.

00:22:12.600 So you had this ambiguous statement that we can kind of sit here and try to play lawyer on it and say, what's the correct interpretation is a statement of permanent peace, but it's conditional on future negotiations.

00:22:26.440 Does that count or not? But we what we do not have, we did not have a similar statement from the Trump side.

00:22:34.320 We had he did make a post on his truth social about, you know, I could look up the text, but it's essentially, you know, all the people before me have not reached a peace deal.

00:22:47.640 I've created a wonderful deal that in the future will create or that it said that will lead to a peaceful resolution in this, you know, this ongoing conflict was essentially what he said.

00:23:00.200 So you had this kind of, so that's essentially what you had in favor of the yes side. You had these kind of ambiguous statements and basically very little from the Trump side. You had, you did have that statement that there will be peace, which is obviously a future looking statement, not there is peace, there will be peace.

00:23:22.740 These are pretexts. These are justifications for a decision that clearly I would suggest had already been made.

00:23:30.940 The issue here is that the UMA vote holders are anonymous.

00:23:39.840 And as you pointed out on this show last week, the total UMA tokens, which is the material by which they get to vote, are worth around 40 million in total.

00:23:51.320 And many of these are already wrapped up, have been wrapped up in institutions.

00:23:56.260 So the whole currency is worth 40 million.

00:23:59.900 And even if one, because it's anonymous, you don't actually know who it is crypto in wallets.

00:24:05.520 You don't know who the owners are.

00:24:07.120 Let's just hypothesize that the whole 40 million total were owned by one person over a number of different wallets.

00:24:16.060 That one person is voting on the destiny of a market whose total volume is just a little bit under half a billion dollars, right?

00:24:29.460 So assume that split down 50-50 between yes and no, if you could somehow purchase all of those $40 million tokens to give you effectively the total voting right on resolving all of Polymarket's contested positions,

00:24:50.860 um you would with with those means you could you could hoover up a 250 million dollar um win right

00:25:00.220 technically as i say it's all anonymous so there is absolutely no way look it could even be that

00:25:06.860 it's the people who own polymarket who have hoovered up the um the the uma tokens and

00:25:13.940 they're the ones voting which is why they're not interested in resolving it we don't know

00:25:17.700 nobody knows because it's all anonymous isn't that correct yeah the the point you're getting

00:25:23.640 at is correct i mean it's obviously markets are complicated um in terms of you know who is willing

00:25:29.140 to give up their coins who isn't i mean it's absolutely true the the market cap is whatever

00:25:33.700 32 35 million it's resolving these 100 million dollar markets so yes you're absolutely correct

00:25:41.180 the the economic incentives that if the the video you played at the very beginning said hey this

00:25:46.500 relies on economic incentives to ensure honesty and integrity well the economic incentive isn't

00:25:52.360 there it's 35 million dollars whatever to resolve these markets and obviously you know a lot of

00:25:58.680 people already don't exactly have a high opinion of uh yuma to begin with so you know what is there

00:26:06.280 exactly for them to lose here that's yeah that's that's a great point that the very

00:26:11.040 arguments they were using to suggest there was an economic incentive to vote truthfully

00:26:20.820 given the reality of the depreciation in the UMA tokens creates an economic incentive to

00:26:31.560 manipulate the polymarket system right once those values those tokens fall into the floor

00:26:39.740 which is effectively where they are now.

00:26:41.980 The very argument that was supposed to justify its integrity

00:26:44.820 could now, using the same argument,

00:26:47.920 be used to justify the total corruptibility of the process.

00:26:53.900 And this is important because there are people

00:26:56.080 who watch this program who stand to lose.

00:26:58.800 Folks, back in two minutes.

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00:30:37.220 welcome back um as i was just saying before the commercial break the reason we're pushing on this

00:30:43.900 is that there are people who watch the war and people who tune in every day to real America's

00:30:49.220 voice who are interested in polymarket because it's in all the news and all the social media

00:30:55.160 and they think oh you know I watch the news I know a little bit perhaps I'm slightly better

00:31:01.120 informed than the average person I make my own participation here I have a position

00:31:07.800 on a prediction market and that's what they think they're doing they think they're engaged

00:31:13.100 in a predictions market and that's how you lose money on polymarket if you're listening to what

00:31:18.420 jump is saying here that's how you lose money how you how you win the big money is by buying the

00:31:26.040 right to vote on polymarket to determine the resolution via these uma tokens and then when

00:31:34.700 the market is big enough to make it worthwhile you go in for the kill and you just artificially

00:31:41.440 determine it and there's no appeal process from that and people are getting shafted.

00:31:54.280 So I did want to talk to Jump, I think we'll do this next week, about some of the manipulations

00:32:02.460 that have been pretty egregious, specifically one to do with the, that we did mention last

00:32:08.740 Thursday to do with the minerals deal that never actually took place between Ukraine and the United

00:32:18.200 States. And that appears to have followed exactly the same process. Interestingly, this was I think

00:32:23.440 spring of last year, 2025. Interestingly, that was only over a $7 million market. And I repeat,

00:32:32.320 This one on the Iran was, the permanent ceasefire in Iran was a half a billion dollar market.

00:32:42.800 All right, so we'll do that next week.

00:32:45.160 Let's go straight ahead because there have been two developments in the press,

00:32:50.580 which I want to quickly draw the Wallroom posse's attention to.

00:32:58.020 Let's go to the Wall Street Journal that did an unbelievable exercise in old school gumshoe journalist research here.

00:33:10.480 And they dug into Polymarket.

00:33:14.360 And I mentioned before that it's everywhere on social media.

00:33:19.340 That's part of their strategy right now.

00:33:23.440 They want to be everywhere on social media.

00:33:25.700 And what they were caught doing, and this is important from the integrity perspective, if you believe that you're depositing your money in an honest website.

00:33:40.840 But what they were caught doing is paying influencers to produce material, suggesting that they had made winning bets on Polymarket.

00:33:57.480 And they were pushing out the line repeatedly, this is just free money.

00:34:02.480 This is a way to make free money, to get your hands on free money.

00:34:05.740 That was the word they used, free money.

00:34:07.600 And what, thanks to the Wall Street Journal's research, what it transpires is that Polymarket were creating dummy websites identical to Polymarket through which these totally fake and non-existent bets were being placed in order to create the content for social medias to push up.

00:34:33.960 those social media influencers were being paid

00:34:38.280 and not declaring that they were being paid.

00:34:42.120 And this is the article here.

00:34:44.520 I can do no better than recommend people to track down that article.

00:34:50.960 You see it there on the screen.

00:34:52.220 Google it.

00:34:53.080 Check it out.

00:34:53.640 Read it for yourselves.

00:34:55.720 Jump, it was a horrifying article.

00:34:57.480 You've read it yourself, right?

00:35:01.240 Sorry, I was out of it for a second.

00:35:03.960 oh yeah yeah okay i got the yes that's that's uh the poi market i think is what it is that's right 0.78

00:35:12.460 so that's right yeah yeah they it's holly market actually created a phishing site of themselves

00:35:19.020 you know phishing uh is usually you know a term for a scam or somebody creates some kind of a

00:35:25.560 fake website into leading people to think it's the real website in order to you know in some way

00:35:31.540 are other scam people or steal this money. But Polymarket actually did this to themselves by

00:35:37.620 replacing the letter L in their website with the letter I. So then they used this fake website to

00:35:45.380 have people make fake bets on it to make it look like they were winning money, which wasn't real,

00:35:50.800 and then have those pay to advertise that, pay those people to post that on social media.

00:35:56.760 So they basically created their own scam. And why they did this, I guess they thought that it would be a legal shield, that they weren't using their own website. But at the end of the day, they created fake bets, advertised them as if they were real bets on an entirely fake. Like I said, it's a phishing website. It's what people do to scam others. And Polymarket did it themselves. So it's quite a ridiculous story.

00:36:26.760 um it is absolutely ridiculous and it if polymarket were fully registered in the uk i 0.86

00:36:36.500 think it's registered in panama if they were fully registered in did i say the uk in in the u.s

00:36:44.000 um these are fraudulent activities i i could easily see a situation where people would be

00:36:51.140 going to prison over this there are a few questions jump that i just want to

00:36:55.540 mention in light of this article firstly the worth drawing attention to the fact that the

00:37:04.740 wall street journal did an analysis of over a thousand videos that social media influencers

00:37:13.180 had been pushing out so it wasn't just like just one or two this was widespread and structural

00:37:20.240 as part of Polymarket's strategy to get.

00:37:26.180 I think the journal even suggests that these influencers

00:37:36.140 needed to have 60% of their social media followers in the United States.

00:37:43.500 They were targeting Americans here.

00:37:45.980 um so i think further research needs to be done on because polymarket as far as i can tell jump

00:37:55.260 is two it is n it is either one entity practicing i don't quite understand what their legal

00:38:03.580 commercial structure is at the moment they're based in panama they're they have a very sort of

00:38:11.720 limited presence legal presence in the united states on a on a pared down limited website

00:38:19.360 um and i think you need to get in via an app in order to trade on it the bulk however of their

00:38:26.800 volume is made uh on their international website and americans would need to use a vpn

00:38:33.260 to get involved in that um now it's quite well known that's part of polymarket's strategy

00:38:39.800 they want to be they want to be active in the united states because that's where the money is

00:38:45.800 but they want to be as lightly regulated as possible to to get there um that that's the

00:38:52.160 situation at the moment they would not be able to get away legally they they'd be shut down

00:38:58.160 within 30 seconds if they did these practices um as a legal regulated company in the united states

00:39:06.020 if they were doing this, they would be closed down for fraud.

00:39:09.420 So at the moment, whilst they want to be regulated

00:39:12.120 and active in the United States,

00:39:14.520 they're also exploiting, cynically exploiting,

00:39:18.100 the fact that they're sort of untouchable

00:39:22.780 whilst that regime lasts.

00:39:27.160 There are a couple of things as well,

00:39:29.920 and I'll go on to them some more in just a moment.

00:39:36.020 But it would appear from this article that when they approached the Commodities Futures Trading Commission or the Federal Trade Commission,

00:39:50.620 I forget which one of them it is, for a response because they were contacting them both for an answer to something.

00:39:58.240 They said, oh, well, we can't comment at the moment.

00:40:00.480 I think it was the CFTC, they said we can't comment at the moment

00:40:07.540 because of a potential investigation or something like that.

00:40:16.260 And that is interesting because it would seem to confirm

00:40:21.400 that there is a federal investigation of Polymarket taking place right now.

00:40:25.580 that has massive implications i think for all of the the people who have lost colossal amounts of

00:40:33.420 money on polymarket and i will break that down in just a couple of moments finally midpoint in the

00:40:41.000 second half of the show so i'll give a quick shout out once again to birch gold um as i say there's

00:40:46.560 just a little over a week left if you want to take advantage of their special offer

00:40:50.700 the limited edition one ounce silver coin

00:40:53.920 text Bannon B-A-N-N-O-N to 989898

00:40:59.480 speak to Philip Patrick and his team

00:41:01.420 get as much information

00:41:03.020 pump them for the free information

00:41:05.600 get all the information you want from them

00:41:07.440 and then make a decision as to

00:41:09.480 what you want to do

00:41:11.580 where you want to invest your

00:41:13.720 resources remembering of course

00:41:16.420 that the yellow metal is for 5,000 years

00:41:19.200 a hedge against times of turbulence once again ticks ban and b-a-double-n-o-n-to-9-8-9-8-9-8

00:41:27.000 okay jump as we finish now the um go towards the end of this show it would seem to me that everyone

00:41:36.860 who has been stiffed by polymarket on not just the iran trade but all trades has an opportunity

00:41:46.460 now to exercise some leverage and i think it should be making mass mass representations

00:41:57.640 to the federal trade commission the ftc the commodities

00:42:03.020 futures trade commission as well which is the entity at the moment that has the legal right

00:42:12.080 to regulate what presence Polymarket and Cowsheet have in the United States

00:42:18.420 as prediction markets rather than betting sites,

00:42:22.460 to lobby these websites and say the point is not that they're predictions markets.

00:42:26.860 They are not what they are claiming to be.

00:42:29.540 That's the point.

00:42:30.520 As we saw in the cold open of the video,

00:42:33.000 the claim is that these things are being impartially decided

00:42:38.000 by impartial, disinterested

00:42:41.740 juries of UMA token vote holders.

00:42:46.700 This is not the case.

00:42:47.920 Coming back to the Wall Street Journal

00:42:49.680 in a different article,

00:42:51.960 different research that they had mapped up.

00:42:55.180 This is what we quoted last week.

00:42:57.380 Some 60%, apparently those UMA voting wallets

00:43:01.560 are tied, 60% of those wallets

00:43:03.580 are tied to active positions on Polymarket.

00:43:07.020 And there is no way on earth that if the full facts of this situation are known, companies such as, entities such as Polymarket would be able to legally trade in the United States.

00:43:25.720 They need to resolve this, and at the moment they're there to show no real interest or seriousness in resolving it, and people have lost a lot of money.

00:43:34.520 Yes, of course.

00:43:35.480 Yeah. So just kind of to expand on what you said. So there is this Yuma system and it's it's ultimately a bunch of people on Discord and a bunch of cryptocurrency token holders.

00:43:45.260 You know, imagine for a minute, you know, Polymarket is looking to expand its operations to become significantly larger, which ultimately will bring in, you know, institutional players, even just the medium-sized ones.

00:43:56.840 And, you know, imagine these institutional players, you know, leaving their financial futures up to just a bunch of random dudes on Discord, you know.

00:44:06.060 And I was trying to avoid this just as a meta comment from earlier, you know, I was trying to kind of explain this market, explain the rules.

00:44:14.360 ultimately kind of comes down to again a bunch of people on discord playing this rules lawyer role

00:44:20.760 you know trying to kind of get through the the details the the nitty-gritty all these you know

00:44:26.800 small details so it's it's a bunch of people just doing this on a public discord and it's a mess

00:44:34.440 that's the that's the point i'm making it's a complete mess some people are financially

00:44:39.040 interested you know it's like it as i said you kind of could see it a little earlier as i was

00:44:46.300 kind of going point to point to point you know can you really rely on a bunch of people to

00:44:51.400 lawyer these markets and try to get out all these fine details probably not going to be a good result

00:44:57.680 realistically and you're going to get varying quality so again you can't really imagine uh

00:45:03.200 large institutional players jumping into this market with this UMA system where you have these

00:45:09.600 basically influential UMA individuals who have a disproportionate, not just votes, but also a say

00:45:19.200 in the process. Like there's no way any serious institutional investor would want to mess with

00:45:25.780 these people determining their financial future. It's just completely, I don't think it's something

00:45:31.300 that's going to last into the future we have something in the uk called the trades descriptions

00:45:36.820 act i think america has something um similar there's no way legally that these companies can

00:45:43.340 trade um portraying themselves as one thing when the reality is is another um so i would suggest

00:45:54.280 at this stage there needs to be some degree of organization between the traders who have lost

00:46:02.200 huge amounts of money on this um and that and those rep you know you need to i would suggest

00:46:08.620 organize right jump you and the other traders that are active on um on discord communicating you need

00:46:16.460 to organize thanks for putting that that that article up now because that's where this is going

00:46:24.580 there is um last week i think senator john curtis the republican from um from utah and others have

00:46:33.960 sent a letter um to the commodity futures trading commission based on the um

00:46:42.840 the news that emerged out of the Wall Street Journal's article

00:46:49.740 that there is an ongoing investigation.

00:46:55.580 And they wanted the vast chairman, the CFTC chairman, Michael Selig,

00:47:02.280 to respond to this because obviously Congress is increasingly active now

00:47:12.280 about wanting to tighten this up.

00:47:14.160 I think they're missing the point.

00:47:16.400 I think if it's a predictions market that is legitimate,

00:47:19.540 I think there's a space for that in public life.

00:47:22.800 I think it has a role to play, an important role to play.

00:47:26.080 The thing is, it's not what it claims to be.

00:47:28.200 I saw Reuters a few days ago carried an article

00:47:32.400 suggesting that the annualized revenue at the moment

00:47:35.900 just being calculated for Polymarket is a billion dollars.

00:47:42.280 Some people, therefore, are making a lot of money as the situation is at the moment.

00:47:47.920 They're not going to care if a couple of innocent users got shafted for a million dollars.

00:47:54.180 Why would they care if they're making a billion dollars out of this? 0.99

00:47:58.560 I tell you where you want to exercise your leverage is that Polly Market is absolutely desperate to have full legal access to the U.S. market. 1.00

00:48:10.440 It wants rich Americans' money, and it's desperate. 0.96

00:48:15.900 You know, they want to drop the VPN.

00:48:18.160 They want to hoover up as much as your money as possible,

00:48:22.080 and that $1 billion annualized revenue,

00:48:25.080 that will be 100-fold quite easily.

00:48:29.200 So people who have been shafted,

00:48:31.760 and Polymarket stood by and did nothing.

00:48:35.420 A lot of people lost a lot of money in broad daylight in real time,

00:48:39.440 like watching a train crash in slow motion polymarket literally stood by and and did nothing

00:48:45.480 on their marquee geopolitical market um now is your time right to exercise people who have been

00:48:54.540 shafted by a corrupt system to exercise your leverage knowing that polymarket is desperate

00:49:01.580 to enter the US fully and make strong representations,

00:49:07.140 both to the Senate and to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,

00:49:12.960 massive representations, because that is your leverage.

00:49:17.580 And I'm sure you will, if you get your strategy right on this,

00:49:23.540 you will be reimbursed of the money that was stolen from you.

00:49:28.280 As I say, the system that this market has at the moment allows for the resolution of bits to be decided by a third-party organization called UMA.

00:49:42.600 It's all anonymous, so whether it's a third party or whether it's all the same people, nobody has any idea because we're dealing with crypto wallets here.

00:49:50.340 But we'll assume that on paper, the decisions are handed out to a third-party organization.

00:49:58.280 And as the Wall Street Journal itself indicates, these wallets are linked to active positions on Polymarket itself.

00:50:05.220 It's not an open, honest predictions market system.

00:50:11.660 That's the issue, right?

00:50:12.500 And people have thought that it was and have lost a lot of money.

00:50:16.800 As I say, people who watch this show, people who tune into Real America's Voice, people have lost a lot of money.

00:50:23.180 And that's why we're putting this service together so that people can be better informed.

00:50:26.700 jump where do people go i know you're um not you're you're you're preferring your anonymity

00:50:31.880 but uh where can people reach out to you if they want to share uh by email if they want to share

00:50:37.780 their news with you um they can uh they can send me this uh to my email at uh 7jump at proton.me

00:50:48.800 um at the moment aside from that in terms of the the overall organization it is a bit limited

00:50:56.500 as we uh you mentioned previously uh we we've got it we've got it we've got it we've got to go we've

00:51:02.840 got a heart out um join us next thursday we'll continue the conversation

Bannon's War Room - July 02, 2026

WarRoom Battleground EP 1043： Within One Month Of WarRoom Covering Polymarket Scam, Polymarket Is Now Under federal Investigation

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