00:03:46.380The larger ones excite the manipulatory potential of precisely that UMA optimistic oracle that decides on the outcome of these positions.
00:04:02.720And the reason why we're putting these shows together is because Polymarket's marquee geopolitical market on the Iran-U.S. permanent ceasefire agreement, which had about half a billion dollars, a little less than half a billion dollars worth of trade.
00:04:30.180Many people on this show had a little position on that.
00:04:35.460That was large enough to attract the anonymous wallets that decide the outcomes of these positions on this UMA optimistic.
00:04:55.460And the suspicion is, and this is what we're digging down into, that the very anonymous crypto wallets that are entrusted in deciding all of the contested events contracts are themselves large.
00:05:25.460position holders on those very positions i'm trying not to use the word bet because i don't
00:05:32.340want to get into the argument as to whether predictions markets are betting websites i
00:05:39.140personally don't think they are um but that's the least i think of the problems that these guys need
00:05:46.020to worry about that the issue is fundamentally that a lot of innocent people are participating
00:05:52.420on these websites specifically as we're digging into polymarket right now they are putting a lot
00:05:59.700of money down on polymarket thinking that it is a predictions market on the outcome of an event
00:06:06.820and as i say for the smaller bits that's probably true for the larger ones
00:06:14.500not necessarily true not necessarily true and some people and i've done the research on this i i've
00:06:19.940Because it's all the thing about blockchain and crypto, it's all traceable, it's all transparent.
00:06:27.780And having followed this and done my research on this, there were people who lost millions of dollars on that.
00:06:34.460Okay, so a guy, an investor on Polymarket who has asked us to respect his desire for anonymity,
00:06:46.540and we'll call him Jump, that is his name for the purposes of this.
00:06:52.100He joined us last Thursday, he's back here joining us today.
00:06:56.000Jump, many thanks indeed for coming back on the show
00:07:08.480and that figure is larger than that was a figure some time ago.
00:07:13.000The figure is substantially more than 345 million.
00:07:16.540It was up to, I think, something like $480 million by the time the market closed.
00:07:25.260That issue was fundamentally, that was a market that was to do with people either believing or not believing that by a certain date, there was going to be a permanent ceasefire.
00:07:42.400permanent ceasefire explicitly it's in the terms of resolution explicitly not a temporary
00:07:50.440provisional ceasefire yeah and for those who for those who aren't familiar with polymarket there
00:07:56.920were maybe probably eight to ten or so of these markets ceasefire markets agreement markets and
00:08:02.640what made this one special is it was very much supposed to be out about the permanency of this
00:08:09.260resolution so that's very fundamental to uh what this was about and was supposed to be you know a
00:08:15.820requirement in order to resolve this is yes that it would be an absolutely permanent agreement here
00:08:22.280because i mean a lot of people and you can read the comments at the bottom of of this page a lot
00:08:31.220of people believed that there would be a provisional ceasefire before the deadline they
00:08:38.180just said it's not going to be a permanent ceasefire. It's because they were paying attention
00:08:41.760to the sounds coming out of the White House, that President Trump wasn't prepared to sign
00:08:49.380everything away on a permanent deal. He wanted a provisional, temporary deal, and he wanted
00:08:54.300to hold the Iranians to that. That was very much, his thinking is quite clear on that.0.99
00:08:58.860In fact, just for the avoidance of doubt, we have two very short video clips to play
00:09:05.320You know, Denver, if you would be so kind as to play both the president and Marco Rubio,
00:09:12.940and we can hear them say what they were doing in their own words.
00:09:18.140The facts to the agreement are now final, or are you still...
00:09:21.060No, it's not final. It's a memorandum of understanding.
00:09:23.680And if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.1.00
00:09:29.780What do you expect? If I don't like it, if they don't behave,1.00
00:09:33.440will go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.0.85
00:09:38.580Mr. Secretary, the MOU did not include a specific number of years
00:09:43.020during which Iran could not develop nuclear weapons.
00:09:46.220Should a final agreement have a specific number, and is the U.S. pushing for that?
00:09:49.720No, that's why an MOU would not have that, because the MOU is not a final agreement.
00:09:53.260An MOU just creates the construct and the outlines for a negotiation.
00:09:56.880And there's no doubt that as part of that negotiation,
00:09:59.300very specific terms like years and limits will be discussed,
00:10:02.540And that includes the mechanisms by which it's verified and enforced.
00:10:31.100So it was pretty quick. But that Marco Rubio statement, you know, I'll just repeat it.
00:10:35.880An MOU is not a final agreement. An MOU just creates the construct and the outlines for a negotiation.
00:10:43.000So he's really explicitly saying here, you know, what did the MOU did?
00:10:47.000It only created this framework. It only created the set of conditions to allow this continued negotiation.
00:10:53.880So he absolutely couldn't be more more clear for that.
00:10:58.080And just as a thought experiment, imagine if this really was a permanent peace deal. Imagine how inaccurate that statement would be, how big of an omission. He's being asked about this, and he's describing what the MOU does, and he says, look, this is all it does.
00:11:17.140You know, it created these temporary conditions to allow us to continue negotiation, but that's all.
00:11:24.520Imagine how much of an oversight it would be if, you know, this was a permanent peace between Iran and the United States.
00:11:31.700And, you know, he just absolutely forgot to mention it.
00:11:35.280So it's very clear that this is, as he said, you know, a temporary agreement to facilitate further negotiation.
00:11:43.380And again, you can see Trump, you know, same thing.
00:11:46.140He's asked about it. You know, he says, oh, no, it's only a memorandum of understanding, you know, as if it's very obvious.
00:11:53.660Of course, of course, it's not a final deal. It's a memorandum of understanding.
00:11:58.900And, you know, so he treats Trump treats this as an ongoing negotiation process and says, you know, if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at him.
00:12:06.980It's in this case, of course, referring to the ongoing negotiation process because he's specifically asked by the reporter twice.
00:12:14.480you know is this a final deal is this text final is this finally he's like no it's a memorandum
00:12:20.140of understanding it's ongoing negotiation if i don't like it well you will drop bombs on their
00:12:25.700head so it's you you cannot be much more clear than that you can't be much clear than that and
00:12:32.200whilst there have been look we're gonna just i'm gonna do a shout out to to our show sponsor in a
00:12:38.240moment and we're going to come back and discuss another one of these issues controversies whilst
00:12:46.820digging in and doing my research on this there have been quite a number of contentiously
00:12:52.800controversially decided controversially resolved markets and even though it's clear i think the
00:13:03.760market had one interpretation of the words and the uma oracle squeezed in another interpretation
00:13:11.560of the words that i think is the danger latent in the game this market however and the one we're
00:13:18.960going to discuss afterwards that is pretty that there's no wiggle room for good faith
00:13:23.840interpretation on that it's pretty clear and i say on this one as i said this was polymarket
00:13:30.140This wasn't a small incidental market that no one was paying attention to.
00:13:34.740This was their marquee geopolitical trade.
00:13:38.960This is the one they were pushing for two months.
00:13:41.880It was the one they were pushing out by emails.
00:13:43.680It's the one that they were putting their publicity on.
00:13:50.140And I say, why do I say that there's no wiggle room for good faith interpretation here?
00:13:55.880because the deadline and it was a movable feast it was renewable i think you said jump that they
00:14:04.100had about 10 different iterations of this they just kept rolling a bunch of different dates
00:14:08.040the date the one the one that it was you know i can tell you exactly what they were right
00:14:12.940we started off on uh june june 15th during the 15th what was what was the key one uh that that
00:14:22.320that was forced to resolution, that motion to resolve that market to yes
00:14:31.020was moved before the deadline was even up.
00:14:36.820And after a three-day, very contentious period when the UMA wallets were voting,
00:14:46.320after the three-day deadline, they deposited their sentence effectively
00:14:55.540before the text of the resolution had even been released.
00:15:06.360If you remember back during the 15th period, no one quite knew both sides were saying
00:15:13.600we'd signed it we're going to release the text i think it was friday they said uh in um in in
00:15:19.460switzerland and then they released it i i think on thursday or something like that but for the
00:15:24.680whole of the voting period right that text had not been released and yet the the uma oracle was
00:15:32.080voting on fulfillment without knowing what the terms were so there's no good faith interpretation
00:15:38.300to to clarify one thing hold on hold on hold on if you wouldn't mind uh let me do the quick shout
00:15:46.900out um to our sponsor then you can have the word uh straight away when we come back folks uh eight
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00:17:22.200Well, 10 years ago, spot price was $1,200, and today it's $4,500.
00:17:30.300And if you are looking at those tables and charts and speculating that gold might have a similar rally over the next 10 years and you want in,
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00:17:56.960text bannon b-a-n-n-o-n to 989-898 and speak to philip patrick telling your situation asking
00:18:06.580what your options are all right okay jump um word to you you want to clarify something
00:18:12.260So the market does, the rules on this particular market, they give two pretty explicit ways that the yes resolution can be met on the market.
00:18:28.240One is what you said, you know, an actual signed formal agreement between the two parties.
00:18:33.700And there is this second condition that could be used to resolve it.
00:18:37.400And that's if both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established.
00:18:48.640Negotiations, progress, you know, all those other short-term things that are not a definitive agreement do not count.
00:18:55.840So those are the two possible criteria to resolve the market.
00:19:00.360You know, one, you know, with absolute certainty, obviously, no signed agreement.
00:19:04.740so the only way it could resolve yes is this second one and as you see people on the discord
00:19:11.660i mean which is unfortunately where effectively these these arguments happen you know these
00:19:17.760you know tens of millions hundreds could can you just say a quick word what discord is
00:19:24.640yeah yeah so discord it's basically like an online chat room where you know um most most discords
00:19:33.320are open to the public though a few might be private uh you just click a link uh you join
00:19:39.900the discord you make an account and then you can talk to people in these it's it's effectively uh
00:19:45.420kind of a continuous online chat room uh they'll have different channels and sub channels sometimes
00:19:52.080some discords might have a main channel um but so what i was talking about this specific discord
00:19:58.280is for UMA, or Yuma. I always tend to call it UMA in my head. But yeah, this Yuma Discord,
00:20:07.180it's where the argumentation happens for these disputed markets. It's kind of this semi-official
00:20:15.280Yuma Discord. So it's where all of these disputes happen. People can register for the Discord.
00:20:21.500They can kind of make their statements about the disputes. And I do want to say,
00:20:26.760So these statements are not the votes. The vote goes on the blockchain. That's separate. But this is where you can make your case, you know, what this dispute should be.
00:20:35.960And so, again, this these, you know, tens and hundred million dollar markets are just being decided by what are effectively just a bunch of random people on Discord.
00:20:47.700And you'll look for this particular market. And for most markets, obviously, these are just random people. The quality of their argument is varied. And what we saw in this particular market is most people actually ignored these conditions or treated it very loosely.
00:21:08.160So again, the requirements for a yes resolution is that both the government of the United States and Iran needed to provide clear public confirmation.
00:21:19.220And what we saw in most of the arguments, people only mentioned a statement of Iran where they used the word permanent peace, even though that statement was conditional on ongoing negotiations.
00:21:31.700But they did use the word permanent peace in a statement released by the Iranian Security Council.
00:21:37.320And so that was kind of what most of these yes holders used to get their – to argue for their points.
00:21:48.860Unless I'm mistaken, even so, that text was released by the Iranians after the deadline of the 15th of June, right?
00:21:57.260So the actual text of the resolution was after the deadline, but the statements by the Iranian Security Council was before the deadline.
00:22:12.600So you had this ambiguous statement that we can kind of sit here and try to play lawyer on it and say, what's the correct interpretation is a statement of permanent peace, but it's conditional on future negotiations.
00:22:26.440Does that count or not? But we what we do not have, we did not have a similar statement from the Trump side.
00:22:34.320We had he did make a post on his truth social about, you know, I could look up the text, but it's essentially, you know, all the people before me have not reached a peace deal.
00:22:47.640I've created a wonderful deal that in the future will create or that it said that will lead to a peaceful resolution in this, you know, this ongoing conflict was essentially what he said.
00:23:00.200So you had this kind of, so that's essentially what you had in favor of the yes side. You had these kind of ambiguous statements and basically very little from the Trump side. You had, you did have that statement that there will be peace, which is obviously a future looking statement, not there is peace, there will be peace.
00:23:22.740These are pretexts. These are justifications for a decision that clearly I would suggest had already been made.
00:23:30.940The issue here is that the UMA vote holders are anonymous.
00:23:39.840And as you pointed out on this show last week, the total UMA tokens, which is the material by which they get to vote, are worth around 40 million in total.
00:23:51.320And many of these are already wrapped up, have been wrapped up in institutions.
00:23:56.260So the whole currency is worth 40 million.
00:23:59.900And even if one, because it's anonymous, you don't actually know who it is crypto in wallets.
00:24:07.120Let's just hypothesize that the whole 40 million total were owned by one person over a number of different wallets.
00:24:16.060That one person is voting on the destiny of a market whose total volume is just a little bit under half a billion dollars, right?
00:24:29.460So assume that split down 50-50 between yes and no, if you could somehow purchase all of those $40 million tokens to give you effectively the total voting right on resolving all of Polymarket's contested positions,
00:24:50.860um you would with with those means you could you could hoover up a 250 million dollar um win right
00:25:00.220technically as i say it's all anonymous so there is absolutely no way look it could even be that
00:25:06.860it's the people who own polymarket who have hoovered up the um the the uma tokens and
00:25:13.940they're the ones voting which is why they're not interested in resolving it we don't know
00:25:17.700nobody knows because it's all anonymous isn't that correct yeah the the point you're getting
00:25:23.640at is correct i mean it's obviously markets are complicated um in terms of you know who is willing
00:25:29.140to give up their coins who isn't i mean it's absolutely true the the market cap is whatever
00:25:33.70032 35 million it's resolving these 100 million dollar markets so yes you're absolutely correct
00:25:41.180the the economic incentives that if the the video you played at the very beginning said hey this
00:25:46.500relies on economic incentives to ensure honesty and integrity well the economic incentive isn't
00:25:52.360there it's 35 million dollars whatever to resolve these markets and obviously you know a lot of
00:25:58.680people already don't exactly have a high opinion of uh yuma to begin with so you know what is there
00:26:06.280exactly for them to lose here that's yeah that's that's a great point that the very
00:26:11.040arguments they were using to suggest there was an economic incentive to vote truthfully
00:26:20.820given the reality of the depreciation in the UMA tokens creates an economic incentive to
00:26:31.560manipulate the polymarket system right once those values those tokens fall into the floor
00:26:39.740which is effectively where they are now.
00:26:41.980The very argument that was supposed to justify its integrity
00:27:01.620President Trump is dropping a $100 trillion bomb on the globalists.
00:27:06.220Jerome Powell's term has come to a close, and he's installing a real America first Fed chair who will, according to Jim Rickards, slash rates and supercharge our reindustrialization.
00:27:20.480This is what one man is calling Trump's gift on America's 250th anniversary, unleashing a historic super cycle in American mining, rare earths, uranium and gold.
00:27:31.940The same forces that turned $5,000 into over a million in less than five years during China's booms are hitting here now.
00:27:40.380Jim Rickards, the former CIA, Pentagon, and White House advisor, has the battle plan.
00:27:46.240The gold royalty stock that could skyrocket in the next few years and the uranium power for AI.
00:33:14.360And I mentioned before that it's everywhere on social media.
00:33:19.340That's part of their strategy right now.
00:33:23.440They want to be everywhere on social media.
00:33:25.700And what they were caught doing, and this is important from the integrity perspective, if you believe that you're depositing your money in an honest website.
00:33:40.840But what they were caught doing is paying influencers to produce material, suggesting that they had made winning bets on Polymarket.
00:33:57.480And they were pushing out the line repeatedly, this is just free money.
00:34:02.480This is a way to make free money, to get your hands on free money.
00:34:05.740That was the word they used, free money.
00:34:07.600And what, thanks to the Wall Street Journal's research, what it transpires is that Polymarket were creating dummy websites identical to Polymarket through which these totally fake and non-existent bets were being placed in order to create the content for social medias to push up.
00:34:33.960those social media influencers were being paid
00:34:38.280and not declaring that they were being paid.
00:35:03.960oh yeah yeah okay i got the yes that's that's uh the poi market i think is what it is that's right0.78
00:35:12.460so that's right yeah yeah they it's holly market actually created a phishing site of themselves
00:35:19.020you know phishing uh is usually you know a term for a scam or somebody creates some kind of a
00:35:25.560fake website into leading people to think it's the real website in order to you know in some way
00:35:31.540are other scam people or steal this money. But Polymarket actually did this to themselves by
00:35:37.620replacing the letter L in their website with the letter I. So then they used this fake website to
00:35:45.380have people make fake bets on it to make it look like they were winning money, which wasn't real,
00:35:50.800and then have those pay to advertise that, pay those people to post that on social media.
00:35:56.760So they basically created their own scam. And why they did this, I guess they thought that it would be a legal shield, that they weren't using their own website. But at the end of the day, they created fake bets, advertised them as if they were real bets on an entirely fake. Like I said, it's a phishing website. It's what people do to scam others. And Polymarket did it themselves. So it's quite a ridiculous story.
00:36:26.760um it is absolutely ridiculous and it if polymarket were fully registered in the uk i0.86
00:36:36.500think it's registered in panama if they were fully registered in did i say the uk in in the u.s
00:36:44.000um these are fraudulent activities i i could easily see a situation where people would be
00:36:51.140going to prison over this there are a few questions jump that i just want to
00:36:55.540mention in light of this article firstly the worth drawing attention to the fact that the
00:37:04.740wall street journal did an analysis of over a thousand videos that social media influencers
00:37:13.180had been pushing out so it wasn't just like just one or two this was widespread and structural
00:37:20.240as part of Polymarket's strategy to get.
00:37:26.180I think the journal even suggests that these influencers
00:37:36.140needed to have 60% of their social media followers in the United States.
00:39:29.920and I'll go on to them some more in just a moment.
00:39:36.020But it would appear from this article that when they approached the Commodities Futures Trading Commission or the Federal Trade Commission,
00:39:50.620I forget which one of them it is, for a response because they were contacting them both for an answer to something.
00:39:58.240They said, oh, well, we can't comment at the moment.
00:40:00.480I think it was the CFTC, they said we can't comment at the moment
00:40:07.540because of a potential investigation or something like that.
00:40:16.260And that is interesting because it would seem to confirm
00:40:21.400that there is a federal investigation of Polymarket taking place right now.
00:40:25.580that has massive implications i think for all of the the people who have lost colossal amounts of
00:40:33.420money on polymarket and i will break that down in just a couple of moments finally midpoint in the
00:40:41.000second half of the show so i'll give a quick shout out once again to birch gold um as i say there's
00:40:46.560just a little over a week left if you want to take advantage of their special offer
00:40:50.700the limited edition one ounce silver coin
00:43:03.580are tied to active positions on Polymarket.
00:43:07.020And there is no way on earth that if the full facts of this situation are known, companies such as, entities such as Polymarket would be able to legally trade in the United States.
00:43:25.720They need to resolve this, and at the moment they're there to show no real interest or seriousness in resolving it, and people have lost a lot of money.
00:43:35.480Yeah. So just kind of to expand on what you said. So there is this Yuma system and it's it's ultimately a bunch of people on Discord and a bunch of cryptocurrency token holders.
00:43:45.260You know, imagine for a minute, you know, Polymarket is looking to expand its operations to become significantly larger, which ultimately will bring in, you know, institutional players, even just the medium-sized ones.
00:43:56.840And, you know, imagine these institutional players, you know, leaving their financial futures up to just a bunch of random dudes on Discord, you know.
00:44:06.060And I was trying to avoid this just as a meta comment from earlier, you know, I was trying to kind of explain this market, explain the rules.
00:44:14.360ultimately kind of comes down to again a bunch of people on discord playing this rules lawyer role
00:44:20.760you know trying to kind of get through the the details the the nitty-gritty all these you know
00:44:26.800small details so it's it's a bunch of people just doing this on a public discord and it's a mess
00:44:34.440that's the that's the point i'm making it's a complete mess some people are financially
00:44:39.040interested you know it's like it as i said you kind of could see it a little earlier as i was
00:44:46.300kind of going point to point to point you know can you really rely on a bunch of people to
00:44:51.400lawyer these markets and try to get out all these fine details probably not going to be a good result
00:44:57.680realistically and you're going to get varying quality so again you can't really imagine uh
00:45:03.200large institutional players jumping into this market with this UMA system where you have these
00:45:09.600basically influential UMA individuals who have a disproportionate, not just votes, but also a say
00:45:19.200in the process. Like there's no way any serious institutional investor would want to mess with
00:45:25.780these people determining their financial future. It's just completely, I don't think it's something
00:45:31.300that's going to last into the future we have something in the uk called the trades descriptions
00:45:36.820act i think america has something um similar there's no way legally that these companies can
00:45:43.340trade um portraying themselves as one thing when the reality is is another um so i would suggest
00:45:54.280at this stage there needs to be some degree of organization between the traders who have lost
00:46:02.200huge amounts of money on this um and that and those rep you know you need to i would suggest
00:46:08.620organize right jump you and the other traders that are active on um on discord communicating you need
00:46:16.460to organize thanks for putting that that that article up now because that's where this is going
00:46:24.580there is um last week i think senator john curtis the republican from um from utah and others have
00:46:33.960sent a letter um to the commodity futures trading commission based on the um
00:46:42.840the news that emerged out of the Wall Street Journal's article
00:46:49.740that there is an ongoing investigation.
00:46:55.580And they wanted the vast chairman, the CFTC chairman, Michael Selig,
00:47:02.280to respond to this because obviously Congress is increasingly active now
00:47:16.400I think if it's a predictions market that is legitimate,
00:47:19.540I think there's a space for that in public life.
00:47:22.800I think it has a role to play, an important role to play.
00:47:26.080The thing is, it's not what it claims to be.
00:47:28.200I saw Reuters a few days ago carried an article
00:47:32.400suggesting that the annualized revenue at the moment
00:47:35.900just being calculated for Polymarket is a billion dollars.
00:47:42.280Some people, therefore, are making a lot of money as the situation is at the moment.
00:47:47.920They're not going to care if a couple of innocent users got shafted for a million dollars.
00:47:54.180Why would they care if they're making a billion dollars out of this?0.99
00:47:58.560I tell you where you want to exercise your leverage is that Polly Market is absolutely desperate to have full legal access to the U.S. market.1.00
00:48:10.440It wants rich Americans' money, and it's desperate.0.96
00:48:31.760and Polymarket stood by and did nothing.
00:48:35.420A lot of people lost a lot of money in broad daylight in real time,
00:48:39.440like watching a train crash in slow motion polymarket literally stood by and and did nothing
00:48:45.480on their marquee geopolitical market um now is your time right to exercise people who have been
00:48:54.540shafted by a corrupt system to exercise your leverage knowing that polymarket is desperate
00:49:01.580to enter the US fully and make strong representations,
00:49:07.140both to the Senate and to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,
00:49:12.960massive representations, because that is your leverage.
00:49:17.580And I'm sure you will, if you get your strategy right on this,
00:49:23.540you will be reimbursed of the money that was stolen from you.
00:49:28.280As I say, the system that this market has at the moment allows for the resolution of bits to be decided by a third-party organization called UMA.
00:49:42.600It's all anonymous, so whether it's a third party or whether it's all the same people, nobody has any idea because we're dealing with crypto wallets here.
00:49:50.340But we'll assume that on paper, the decisions are handed out to a third-party organization.
00:49:58.280And as the Wall Street Journal itself indicates, these wallets are linked to active positions on Polymarket itself.
00:50:05.220It's not an open, honest predictions market system.