Bannon's War Room - WarRoom Battleground EP 143： Breaking Down The Data That The Establishment Fears

00:00:00.000 this is what you're fighting for i mean every day you're out there what they're doing is blowing

00:00:15.220 people off if you continue to look the other way and shut up then the oppressors the

00:00:22.220 authoritarians get total control and total power because this is just like in arizona this is just

00:00:28.140 like in georgia it's another element that backs them into a quarter and shows their lies and

00:00:32.880 misrepresentations is why this audience is going to have to get engaged as we've told you this is

00:00:37.160 the fight all this nonsense all this spin they can't handle the truth war room battleground

00:00:43.460 here's your host stephen k bannon okay with 47 days ago uh you're in the war room battleground

00:00:52.060 it's thursday 22 september in the year of our lord 2022 a very special hour only two guests

00:00:59.320 two of the smartest uh guys i know in this business one is alex degrassi he is the executive director

00:01:05.780 of team elise that is a basically elise stefanik's uh political operation uh also he works very closely

00:01:12.800 obviously the republican conference nrcc all of that one of the smartest analytical guys i know and

00:01:18.300 a young strategist that really gets and of course richard barris the people's pundit uh does a lot

00:01:25.100 of work now for cd media also big data his his polling operation remember richard was with us on

00:01:31.120 election night of 3 november in the year of our 2022 and basically called exactly what was going to

00:01:36.100 happen so we got the great richard barris i want to turn it over to alex this is really alex's first

00:01:40.720 time in the war room alex i'm gonna turn it over to you you've done a lot of analytical work

00:01:44.740 here and and and i want you to go through the analytics but also the strategy of what happened

00:01:50.300 because we can feel a tectonic plate shift happening but this just didn't happen this was

00:01:55.140 a lot of smart people uh really focusing on what was important for citizens of the united states and

00:02:01.020 really uh messaging to voters so alex why don't you take it i know you got a number of charts and

00:02:05.540 analysis uh so just uh go with it sir thank you steve it's such an honor to be here as a member of the

00:02:11.260 posse obviously in the trenches here in republican leadership i think what we have begun the great

00:02:17.080 counter-offensive of our time politically we started on labor day people are kind of looking

00:02:21.820 at what's happening um democrats spent july and august spending a lot of money on tv attacking our

00:02:29.420 candidates they really haven't had any hits stick we've actually kept a lot of our fire to labor day

00:02:35.040 and as you've seen on your tvs hopefully if you're in one of the 74 targeted battleground seats that

00:02:40.160 we're hitting very hard we are now outspending democrats and hammering them on the issues that

00:02:45.420 are most important to the voters inflation security crime the border economics in general actually also

00:02:52.740 unity and protecting your rights and we're seeing the numbers move very quickly i can exclusively say

00:02:59.680 we've seen in our numbers across the board that we've shifted democrats uh unfavorables up over 12

00:03:05.760 in two weeks that's a average across all targeted democrat candidates but our candidates are holding

00:03:11.960 their ground this is just the beginning especially as votes begin to get cast in the next couple weeks

00:03:17.080 military ballots go out in about a couple days uh for certain areas and um it's really going to heat

00:03:23.120 up here across the board we have to stay focused the signal not the noise as everyone knows people

00:03:28.100 need to dig deep now we have the opportunity to have the biggest blowout certainly in my lifetime and

00:03:34.860 possibly yours as well steve and we feel great about it we are very confident that we have the

00:03:40.020 candidates for funding and the message hang on i mean i i i want to just go back for a second and

00:03:46.820 make sure that the audience understands nomenclature and critical path and process here it's so important

00:03:51.280 uh elections are always about issue sets and about uh candidates and uh in in in campaigns

00:03:59.380 uh in messaging around that um you i want to go back to july and august and i want to be very specific

00:04:06.240 because there's polling coming out of vegas today about you know the the democrats made a bet on

00:04:10.980 uh i think white uh college educated women whereas the republicans have made a bet on working class 1.00

00:04:17.680 hispanics i want to go back to july and august particularly the democrats came in hard probably

00:04:23.360 figuring they had to but their issue set was very different did walk us through that and you're saying

00:04:28.240 they put tons of money in but really didn't drive it just a glancing blow they didn't they didn't have

00:04:33.540 a knockout punch was it because of the issue set or because of where they spent the money the districts

00:04:39.420 they spent etc walk us through that for a second before we talk about the great counterpunch that

00:04:43.660 we're seeing here post labor day yes and certainly they focused obviously on january 6th abortion as

00:04:50.340 that's come into play we're just not seeing that as a massive driver i send a graphic over to you guys

00:04:56.920 if you look at nbc poll this lead was totally buried they didn't even talk about it in the media

00:05:01.920 they asked candidates you know who are you looking for the candidate who are you looking to support the

00:05:07.320 candidate that's going to take on the cost of living we jumped to the second one um so i apologize

00:05:12.980 but that when we jumped yep we jumped on the cost of living are you looking to support the cost of

00:05:17.340 living candidate are you looking to support the abortion candidate when you really look into the

00:05:20.840 numbers the abortion candidate is democrat based it's faith and we have um not only hispanic voters

00:05:27.880 but we feel actually very good about um you know white working class college educated as well

00:05:32.560 they're feeling the punch this economic crisis across the country they're not getting through

00:05:38.580 they're not getting through the voters people are not worried about january 6th they're not worried

00:05:43.140 about these baseless smears on president trump the illegitimate witch hunt it's just not going to work

00:05:48.540 and we have the issue set because most importantly on midterm steve as you mentioned you know

00:05:54.300 presidentials you know the presidential candidates are driving our voters you've got higher turnout but

00:05:59.400 in the midterm it's really about issues that in 2018 the issues were health care they were not

00:06:04.700 great issues for us and that's really what really kind of did us in that cycle this time we have never

00:06:10.900 seen in our lifetime the issue set more in our favor and that's why you're seeing ad after ad

00:06:17.080 prosecuting biden's crisis the inflation crisis the crime crisis the border security crisis and

00:06:22.840 we're blowing them out by 20 points on those across the board what what i like about the ads is that

00:06:28.900 these are all created crises these are things that just didn't i mean america wasn't like that before

00:06:33.560 these guys took over and controlled both houses let me just go back for one second midterms are always

00:06:38.300 here this concert this conversation between a referendum and a choice in the and you've heard heard it

00:06:44.760 non-stop about the roe v wade decision and and signing up new women just from what you saw in

00:06:50.940 july and august and where we stand today did abortion play up more than just their base voters

00:06:55.960 and have they registered all these new voters and particularly young voters does any any any indice

00:07:02.560 or any data at all shows you that the young because they've made some very specific bets on the 90 days

00:07:07.980 leading up to labor day have you seen any uh any positive response from their perspective from that

00:07:15.200 or did it just not play out now certainly they've seen a small coalescing of their own base i think if

00:07:21.880 you look back four months ago biden was cratering even among hard democrats you see a very tight um

00:07:28.820 coalescing out but in terms of the voter that's least likely to go vote steve it's a young voter it's

00:07:35.240 their voters they are attempting to prime that pump they have not been able to move those numbers over

00:07:40.420 the last two months we look at over two three hundred polls at in republican leadership we can

00:07:46.380 run the numbers in a macro sense they're not moving the numbers it's incumbent apart are in the posse to

00:07:52.240 dig deep get 10 people out organize and get out because we will have the momentum to win this they

00:07:58.200 are not moving the numbers among young people they're just not the data does not say that the media is

00:08:03.500 attempting to say that but we have no proof that there's this jump in energy among young voters

00:08:08.580 that they're going to need to see essentially presidential level type of energy that's just not

00:08:13.660 going to happen i just want to make sure one more time this whole because the media has been

00:08:19.520 inundated every day msnbc cnn new york times about this surge of women voters you're saying hey 0.90

00:08:26.720 the guy was in free fall that did coalesce some of his some of his core voters people that

00:08:31.840 for that topic is important to them but you're not seeing any expansion into the suburbs or

00:08:37.020 exurbs or anything that they had hoped for to really drive this to offset the debacle they've

00:08:42.280 had on on issues like inflation like the economy so you're you're you're not seeing that we're not

00:08:47.920 seeing that at all in fact they're essentially like spending this money they're kind of wasting it you

00:08:53.580 get so many shots right steve and you've got you know how the dollars are spent people have to be

00:08:58.220 very strategic um they it's a total scam essentially if you look at the point you know

00:09:04.040 the what they've used is the um new york 19 special election um they misinformation you know they give

00:09:11.820 misinformation off about it there was actually essentially six democrat candidates running on

00:09:16.100 the primary um turning out their own voters on the same day we had no republican primaries they

00:09:21.800 were able to juice their turnout situation people say that was a flip it was not a flip that's a

00:09:27.060 see biden one we will win it in november um we're not worried it's all noise in an attempt to suppress

00:09:34.000 our voters suppress swing voters from casting that ballot the data is clear voters are looking for a

00:09:39.820 candidate that's going to put a check and stop joe biden whether that's swing voters hispanics i mean

00:09:45.680 steve i can say today that our own republican polling has us winning hispanic voters across the country

00:09:51.640 by significant margins um and when you look at the polling for the folks watching you see these national

00:09:57.060 polling averages you have to kind of tune that out you got to look at the individual battleground

00:10:01.860 polls when we poll we're looking at the 74 seats we're playing in it's a sort of an average of biden plus

00:10:07.680 six um we're playing into their territory and we are seeing very tight races in areas that biden won

00:10:13.940 by 15 17 points where we are within the margins and closing fast and we do have the opportunity

00:10:19.860 if we continue to get the funding from generous folks that we will be able to play in the most

00:10:25.240 seats that we've ever played in before we're already doing that actually but we will be able to go

00:10:29.060 much deeper as things come online late and that's why we've held our fire i just want yeah the great

00:10:35.140 offense okay i just want to make sure the audience here i'm going to put this in historical

00:10:40.320 perspective when we had the newt gingrich revolution in 94 and you had the tea party revolt in 2010

00:10:47.480 correct me if i'm wrong Alex i think you were we were dealing off bases of 174 175 seats those are

00:10:53.740 historic wins and the tea party was 63 but you're 174 we're at two i think 13 or 211 right depending

00:10:59.840 what these special elections have gone when you're talking 74 seats you're talking unbelievable numbers i

00:11:06.660 think the most the gop conferences ever had i am my math maybe i think it's 252 seats in history so

00:11:12.900 you're talking about a historic win i also want to not bury the lead here and i'm gonna bring

00:11:17.220 embarrassed in a second uh i don't want to bury the lead you're saying right now on the data that you

00:11:24.080 guys are looking at and you're talking about two or three hundred polls in these ballots and you're

00:11:27.480 specifically focused on battleground states and battleground districts uh in 74 and play that we're

00:11:33.900 going to win according to your analysis we're going to win the majority of the hispanic vote

00:11:38.300 as it looks right now in those key districts absolutely we are winning their number one issue

00:11:43.740 is inflation and crime the problem is the democrat issues that not just the democrat party but democrat

00:11:49.480 voters for the most part are dissociated from the rest of the voters so democrat voters their top

00:11:56.060 issue is also inflation but then you go into climate change environment you know this january 6th

00:12:01.040 we're not seeing that with independents we're not seeing that with republican swing voters so you

00:12:05.280 have a situation where the hard left is sort of dissociating speaking to themselves independents

00:12:10.920 hispanics swing voters are falling into our issues that inflation crime border security protecting

00:12:18.080 rights second amendment things like that that really is what could spell a total disaster for the

00:12:24.100 democrats because they're not i i want to go back to the the concept of this issue set is what

00:12:29.580 trump in 16 was all about i just want to go to the issue set again by nbc news border security gop plus

00:12:36.720 36 crime plus 23 immigration plus 19 economy plus 19 cost of living inflation plus 14 unity bringing the

00:12:44.880 country together plus six when you look at theirs you know abortion plus 22 but the other issues are not

00:12:50.860 don't feel like front burner issues like protecting democracy and there's not a huge it's like plus six

00:12:56.240 they're just not of this moment of where people are and where people think the country is particularly

00:13:01.360 the working class is that generally the thinking of nrcc and in in the conference is that this issue

00:13:07.940 set is what's foremost in front of the american people that's exactly right and if you look at the ads

00:13:13.700 inflation it's cost of living it's biden's crisis but most importantly it's about the democrat

00:13:19.200 incumbents that have voted with joe biden 100 i'll send you this ad to watch it's great we'll

00:13:25.020 you put it up at some point alissa slocken um he's on a zoom call and she's like in her own words boy

00:13:31.580 we're getting used to just spending trillions and trillions of dollars that's right they are we pay

00:13:37.580 they're spending we pay it's their own words and the democrats in congress have gone along with joe

00:13:44.400 biden's agenda 100 you have people that claim to be moderate 100 with joe biden 100 with nancy

00:13:50.860 blosey it's frankly real malpractice it's something that we sort of sat there thinking wow i mean they're 1.00

00:13:56.580 it's crazy you would think maybe that they would try to throw these guys a bone give them some type

00:14:01.880 of independence but because we did so well in 2020 on the ballot with president trump and we're able to

00:14:07.280 get those numbers so close they've been forced to walk the plank whether it be tax acts on the

00:14:12.580 middle class with this inflation bill and um i sent over one of the slides it would be the last

00:14:17.520 one but only 37 percent and then you know in your kind of polling has voters supporting this inflation

00:14:23.960 act those numbers are only going to go down as we open fire we understand 32 only 32 percent

00:14:29.820 opposed but most people slow down i want to i want to i want to make sure we explain that this is very

00:14:34.580 important because this was i said that what happened is that the senators realized the game was up

00:14:39.560 they're going to lose the senate this was a payoff for their donors i mean this thing's a grab bag of

00:14:44.860 just bizarre spending right and but they renamed it the orwellian right the inflation control act

00:14:51.520 i want you to go what you guys focus on immediately nobody but the hardest core of the democratic base

00:14:56.360 who really doesn't understand it supports that correct that's what your analysis showed that hey

00:15:00.020 this is not a win for them we can actually turn this to a loser because it's driving inflation was that

00:15:05.820 the theory of the case for you guys that's exactly right and so usually when you get these big spending

00:15:10.380 bills or the money's being passed around usually you'll get your highest peak of support right after

00:15:14.980 it's passed right when people get the funding and then from there it's all downhill because people

00:15:19.260 you know the so you have the same numbers with the infrastructure act with their earlier bills on

00:15:24.040 build back better people aren't seeing his economic the economic agenda of joe biden helped them

00:15:29.580 they're saying that in the poll that was another slide i sent over voters are not equating

00:15:34.360 go biden and this is nbc again a buried lead they are not seeing the positive impact on

00:15:40.780 go biden's agenda and you know once we start opening fire and educating voters on what's in these bills

00:15:47.780 massive bailouts for luxury resorts different things like that golf courses you know that's in our ads

00:15:54.780 so if you look at the ads we're saying look she's spending all the money elissa slokin and he's giving 1.00

00:16:00.460 massive handouts of some of these big corporations and you're paying the price

00:16:04.360 i want to go back to something before i go to barris real quickly you said which is another

00:16:10.340 massive buried lead you're right now seeing biden plus six districts and you think you could get up

00:16:17.640 to with the with the money being smartly spent and focus on driving up their negatives because you're

00:16:23.160 educating independent and maybe even some moderate democrat voters potentially swing voters to this

00:16:29.520 orgy of spending in in in the crime wave you actually said you go to 15 and 17 you believe

00:16:35.080 right now that that republicans going after democratic incumbents in biden plus six districts

00:16:40.560 is achievable oh absolutely see what what i was saying was we're looking at the 74 seats and the median

00:16:47.500 margin of those seats is biden plus six and you know one end you've got a few seats about 11 that

00:16:53.180 president trump won a lot of those we've got locked up and you're gonna start seeing the money

00:16:57.180 move from making sure they win and start going lower on the chain as we cross our offensive deeper

00:17:02.840 in the democrat territory what i'm saying is we're looking at areas exactly right where yeah

00:17:07.560 biden won by 15 16 17 even where you know we looked at there might be opportunities as we get

00:17:14.720 closer and we're going to begin to start spending absolutely if you are a democrat i know the dnc is

00:17:18.780 going to be watching this and you're in an area that you um only won by 15 points you're definitely

00:17:23.540 an endangered vulnerable democrat no doubt about it one thing before i go to barris one more i just

00:17:30.480 gotta bring up people uh the the team over there does not get a big enough shout out for what you

00:17:36.860 did in 2020 i think it's historic you were net 14 or net 12 uh congressional seats and in the eve of

00:17:44.980 the election remember they were predicting pelosi is going to pick up anywhere i think from four to six

00:17:49.760 seats so i think it was the net 12 or the net 14 which is kind of historic in a look we're obviously

00:17:56.600 our theory of the case it was stolen it was net 15 seats 11 of them were republican women you know my 0.89

00:18:03.440 boss uh congressman stefanik supported actually i will never forget it i was sitting on the election

00:18:08.260 night room with elise stefanik and fox news said um i mean 9 p.m election night that nancy pelosi is 0.98

00:18:15.920 going to hold out 15 seats or whatever expand and so they were off by 30 which is significant

00:18:22.400 but real quick one of the most important things our people are so energized and you know the the most

00:18:29.120 energized voter and morning consult did an article on this months back but it still holds true today

00:18:34.320 the most energized voter the most energized subset of voter is the voter that believes the election was

00:18:41.340 stolen in 2020 our people are energized if he's going to be get five friends get 10 friends

00:18:46.620 get deep and get them to the polls in person of course

00:18:49.020 that's the purpose of today's show and the kickoff to this with you on here is to make sure that

00:18:55.120 everybody's a force multiplier let me go to richard barris quickly because remember two things to do

00:18:58.900 here is kind of the nomenclature make sure you understand how this polling fits in the status and

00:19:03.780 the enamorance but really critical path richard i just want to go to the pre-labor day period because i

00:19:09.180 think your polling showed the same thing the democrats took their shot they knew they had to

00:19:13.780 move early they took their shot but do you agree with alex it didn't it they didn't they didn't have

00:19:19.320 forget a knockout punch they didn't really even land a good punch it was a glancing blow richard

00:19:24.840 barris the glancing blow is is a better way to characterize it it's the summertime people are going

00:19:30.760 on vacations they're not really locking their views in i'll tell you when a lot of those views do lock

00:19:36.080 in steve before the summer that's the truth of it that's why uh george w bush you know four was so

00:19:41.900 smart to define carrie as a northeastern liberal going into april and you know may uh of that year 1.00

00:19:48.520 because people tune out and republicans stop picking up the phone and democrats are just high

00:19:54.620 interest all through that time period they have a lot of money they outspent republicans through the

00:19:58.860 summer and now we're into labor day again i i'm i'm stunned by the number of registered voter polls

00:20:04.920 that we're still seeing uh which is intentional and i think you know your your prior guest i i really

00:20:11.520 he's going over all of this polling data but uh the issues do make up the election elections are

00:20:17.440 decided by fundamentals they're not decided by news cycles and basically uh you know going into the

00:20:23.660 summer republicans had all of these top you know let's call it four out of five top issues they had

00:20:30.180 them riding in their favor the entire year then we go into the summer and we had you know distortion

00:20:35.600 what i would really call distortion and now we're post labor day people are starting to pay attention

00:20:40.760 again and they're saying to themselves what has been this thorn in my side all year oh that's right

00:20:45.680 it was inflation or maybe certain subset of metro voters i don't like the crime right that i'm seeing

00:20:52.080 that you know this has all been on their side this whole time and they're just going to be reminded

00:20:56.420 by it as well you know as long as republicans campaign on them um they're going to be reminded

00:21:01.660 on and again it's a first term incumbent midterm i'm stunned by all these forecasters and supposed

00:21:08.760 analysts pretending as if george w bush isn't the one and only modern example of a first term incumbent

00:21:15.560 not getting shellacked uh going into this um this first one so you know even a george uh even excuse

00:21:22.760 me even a joe biden's approval ticked up in some of these districts and states where there are

00:21:27.020 battleground senate races he ticked up from abysmal to just shy of abysmal uh and and he got some voters

00:21:34.740 that i think that the prior guest was right we saw that a crack in his foundation his base uh before

00:21:40.640 the summer and they came back to him a little bit but that that did not get him uh you know back on in

00:21:47.020 good standing with independence it did not get the independence on their side and when we get into

00:21:52.320 this a little bit more we just pulled nevada in the silver state look at i don't want to go out of

00:21:57.340 order here but i did this on purpose look at the issues by party what do these people care about

00:22:03.080 abortion the rise of abortion is being driven whether it's national polling we're doing or state

00:22:08.580 level polling it's being driven by their own voter the independents they don't care yeah they just

00:22:15.480 don't i mean that's what you know to try to sum it up steve hang on a second i want to get back

00:22:21.660 to you on nevada for a second we'll go back alex to richard point the the suppression polls because

00:22:26.700 i know and it took by the way it takes a lot of courage to sit there and go we're going to hold

00:22:30.260 our fire we're going to hold our fire we're going to hold our fire to after labor day right particularly

00:22:34.560 we see all the news stories in the news cycle and they're saying hey biden's getting more popular

00:22:38.340 he's had so many successes but talk about that these national polls and these kind of suppression polls

00:22:45.060 versus you guys are really looking at the battlegrounds themselves and at the district

00:22:49.780 yourselves and how the needle's being moved in there alex degrassi oh that's exactly right

00:22:55.000 steve so when you look at the national um polling right they're taking a lot of these big cities

00:23:00.140 that's not necessarily where we're competing some of that gets factored in at some of the senate races

00:23:04.400 where you've got you know walk megas different things but you know we're looking at individual

00:23:09.520 battleground by battleground we're looking at these target seats it's 74 seats it goes very deep

00:23:15.520 um and you know again these registered polls like you said um totally a scam and you need to look at

00:23:23.180 who's likely to vote of course and we have a significant enthusiasm gap and so when we looked

00:23:28.860 at 350 polls that we did uh in our battleground seats for the last four months we maintain a double

00:23:36.420 digit advantage on voters that say they are a 10 out of 10 enthusiastic to go vote and so that really

00:23:43.520 means that we've got the ability to really blow it out of course for the viewers that aren't in the

00:23:48.340 weeds out of how it's done when you pull you have to predict the um electorate right so maybe you look

00:23:54.520 at 35 republicans you know 30 independents you know whatever democrats right equal 100 it's all

00:24:01.840 different everywhere depending on the registration but if we're able to juice our numbers like president

00:24:06.660 and trump did in 2016 then we'll get real real deep even deeper than we're talking about here

00:24:12.400 on this call and that really is what the democrats are worried about that's why they're trying to suppress

00:24:18.300 prick divide and confuse people by thinking that there's some type of red mirage it's a total scam

00:24:24.480 they are in panic mode in free fall we've got 40 million more dollars between our republican

00:24:31.360 leadership democrat leadership and the nrcc and the triple state and all of that is laying down now

00:24:37.320 and it's unlike anything people have seen before in politics honestly i want to i want to go to

00:24:43.800 something before break you got about two minutes so we may not finish we'll take it over but is this

00:24:47.660 also show with the redistricting strategy because one of the theories the redistricting strategy hey

00:24:51.920 what we try to try to do here is maybe get some seats that are safer with that we're not going to put

00:24:56.840 money in at the last second and then we'll have powder dry and be able to use it on that is that

00:25:02.760 where you're seeing some of the redistricting strategy that came in early on and let's get

00:25:06.960 some safe seats or let's get some let's get some seats we don't have to put you know so much money

00:25:11.840 into and that leaves you with the ability to actually put lead on the target when it comes down to the

00:25:16.740 home stretch yeah absolutely so when you look at texas steve i believe we spent about 20 million

00:25:21.800 dollars defending heats in texas last cycle this cycle we're spending zero dollars and we're

00:25:28.440 actually digging deep on some of those biden kicks when you look at my report you see where we have

00:25:33.640 her in a incredibly strong position to be re-elected and you see that biden won very overwhelmingly in

00:25:39.400 that new drawn map and we're on offense in texas so we're able to move some of our money like you said

00:25:45.740 and go deep and so that didn't really get talked to the media a lot the media talked about

00:25:49.800 you know you know different issues where we had maps overturned by activist democrat judges but

00:25:55.680 the reality is redistricting went great for us because we are in a position to dig really deep

00:26:00.340 we're playing a lot less defense real quick 80 of the money that the republican party is spending is

00:26:05.920 on offense 80 of the democrat money is on defense and that alone tells you everything you need to

00:26:12.080 know about this cycle essentially the media won't talk about that okay we're gonna take a short

00:26:17.540 commercial break here on war room battleground we're gonna return with uh alex degrassi he is

00:26:22.880 the executive director of team alice that's the phonics political team who works obviously very

00:26:27.120 close with the nrcc uh walking us through these incredible climactic battle for the house of

00:26:33.760 representatives and we said the house is everything here also uh of course richard

00:26:38.540 bearish the people's pundit we're gonna return in just a moment here in war room battleground

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00:29:32.340 warroom battleground with stephen k bannon

00:29:40.040 okay welcome back look i want to make sure the audience understands something i say this about 16

00:29:46.460 that the first guy i reached out to was rey suprius you know you got to win in a coalition

00:29:50.000 right but victory there is no substitute for victory uh this what we're trying to in this

00:29:56.400 introductory kind of kickoff is to say this is a convergence of a lot of things this is this is a

00:30:01.340 redistricting strategy right that we were very you know involved in and getting people fired up there

00:30:07.180 was a redistricting in part one of the things people thought through said hey maybe we get more

00:30:12.280 safer seats and then leave these these seats at the end of the day when you're having the run-up

00:30:17.220 you can really put resources and back up right and put them on defense the other is an issue set and

00:30:22.380 i think at least stefanik's done a tremendous job the messaging from the republican conference have put

00:30:26.700 these things through and now you're seeing as we're coming down on border security and immigration

00:30:30.440 and inflation in the economy these are the top of people's minds well remember when you start

00:30:35.160 thinking about that that is six months to a year ago that's also converging that takes the thought of

00:30:40.260 hey where is this going to go how this is going to play it the other is obviously in the primaries

00:30:44.720 and the candidate selection these tough primaries has put it all in back here after you finish

00:30:48.240 everybody unite what alex just said the most fired up people voters have been mocked and ridiculed are

00:30:54.300 the people that said this said the war room passes say this thing was stolen in 2020 we're going to get

00:30:59.120 this back in 2022 and we're gonna start making some changes okay that also plays into it also the

00:31:05.680 confidence that you're on the right track when they're putting up ads all july and august and you hear

00:31:11.820 the donors and people are getting nervous and they're seeing the new york times saying it's

00:31:14.780 closing they're going to lose it it was a red tsunami now it's a red puddle politico's got it

00:31:18.960 every day the courage of your convictions to say we got the right issue set they're going to take their

00:31:24.600 best shot but they're not going to put us away and then we're going to hit them with everything we

00:31:28.860 got you know guns unsheathed uh starting after labor day that's kind of the convergence you're seeing

00:31:34.140 now and that's what people are talking about hey there may be more seats in play than people

00:31:39.000 previously imagine off of a higher base remember you just we just did net 15 in 2020 off a much

00:31:46.360 higher base one thing before i go to barris who's done some polling in wisconsin nevada i want to just

00:31:50.580 go through that i think reinforces this is alex this is key and i think this makes donors particularly

00:31:57.060 small donors know that hey if i'm gonna hit you with the 50 bill it's going on offense right now you're

00:32:02.840 saying 80 of the resources for democrats are in defense and 80 of the resources going to republican

00:32:09.900 candidates are on offense can you explain take a minute and explain that absolutely steve so if you

00:32:15.800 look at where the ads are up between the two main republican spending groups on the house side the

00:32:20.840 nrcc and congressional leadership fund with house republican leadership we are spending massively on

00:32:28.740 offense like i said 80 we are digging really really deep we can get to some of those seats but

00:32:34.620 it's so important for people to think about donating because here's some real weed stuff we were talking

00:32:39.640 to steve that we all love the weeds here when you give that money directly to candidates which is the

00:32:43.960 best way to do it candidates that you support candidates that are in these target seats they can

00:32:48.580 run hybrid ads with the nrcc they can run coordinated ads that money is needed for us to match that and we

00:32:54.840 could buy at a candidate rate much cheaper we have figured out at the republican party how to do that

00:33:00.220 it's so important that if you're able to give to our targeted republican seats because we are able to

00:33:06.460 match them and buy the td commercials at a candidate rate and we are now opening up on that front it's

00:33:12.160 essentially like a third front and it's really doing a number on these democrats not only are we hammering

00:33:18.280 them into the ground but we are getting our message out about what we're going to do and educating

00:33:23.040 who our candidates are at a record pace

00:33:26.020 wow hang on for one second i want to go to richard walk us to take a couple minutes walk us through

00:33:32.820 your polling just came out this week on wisconsin and then let's start with nevada i think it's the

00:33:36.980 recent then talk about wisconsin yeah let's uh let's do nevada if nevada if we have the uh the graphic

00:33:43.180 for the senate this poll uh ruffled a few feathers uh but the truth is you said something in the beginning

00:33:49.000 of this uh entire segment and you said that uh you know democrats were banking on the educated woman 1.00

00:33:55.040 and republicans were banking on the working class hispanic nevada right now is reminding me and you'll

00:34:01.640 remember this it's reminding me of a little bit of the conversations we had before 2020 steve where i

00:34:07.000 told you places like duval uh typically republican were getting a little bit more democratic but that

00:34:12.640 was all right because trump was going to make it up in places like miami-dade where this working

00:34:16.720 class hispanic coalition was shifting away from democrats then everybody thought i was crazy you

00:34:22.500 remember and then of course he won 46 percent of the vote in miami-dade on election night and walked

00:34:26.740 away with 200 000 extra votes that is what adam laxalt looks like he's doing in clark county nevada

00:34:31.980 he's made it a tremendous effort to reach out and he's got every leg of the republican coalition

00:34:37.840 trump's base loves laxalt he's also got the more uh you know moderate voter who was a little bit you

00:34:44.300 know uh iffy on trump and he's got the very typical uh traditional establishment voter he's got all

00:34:50.660 three legs of the republican party and it's working for him we have him up by about two points but a lot

00:34:56.260 less undecided uh than we saw in the governor's race but you could see it there it's a very working

00:35:02.000 class state democrats do well with working class voters in this state uh you know people always say

00:35:08.260 that republicans are overrepresented in the polling in nevada it's one of the only states that's the case

00:35:12.620 not with us it's not we had hillary leading in that state three and a half points and we actually

00:35:17.180 uh overestimated her a little bit in 2020 i didn't even want to pull it because i was suspicious

00:35:21.760 that it was really going to be competitive and it ended up much closer than anybody thought it was

00:35:26.800 going to be laxalt has he was smart he recognized this trend when we broke it down by union he was

00:35:34.120 actually winning the private sector union vote he was losing the public sector union vote which overall

00:35:40.280 was a little bit better and so do uh do flex all right now slight favorites like this which would

00:35:47.120 be a pickup for republicans of course um now i the governor and you have the governor's uh map up or

00:35:53.420 graph up too we can go over real quick lombardo has a similar two-point lead but it is lower this is a

00:35:59.800 little bit different well lombardo is is uh doing a little bit better in washoe county not doing as well

00:36:05.560 in clark county so there's a bit of a trade-off he reminds me a little bit more of more traditional

00:36:10.340 whereas laxalt gets a lot more of that trump coalition uh but again with all of you know the

00:36:16.260 large lion share of the undecided vote disapproving of the job joe biden's doing it's going to be tough

00:36:23.780 for sisolak and other democratic governors to convince these people i'm at 42 43 vote for me

00:36:30.620 anyway give me another term it's going to be tough steve historically very very difficult we can move

00:36:36.060 on to wisconsin but again people were you know 20 point lead for adam laxalt among independents is

00:36:42.360 exactly what republicans need to do and it used to be the equation used to be either tie in washoe county

00:36:49.140 or win it back or tighten the margin in clark i think with the shift in hispanic vote laxalt's you

00:36:55.800 know one of the candidates leading the way doing this the equation has changed you can lose washoe

00:37:01.220 if those educated voters go against you because clark is 70 of the vote so if you outperform in

00:37:07.100 clark county and you run up those rural margins douglas elk right all those uh you're you're gonna

00:37:13.520 you're gonna win it you're gonna win it the equation changes the math totally when you bring these

00:37:18.480 cost of living you know uh voters in the in the mix uh you bring these economy and jobs voters in

00:37:24.360 they're hispanic yeah hang up before before you go to west before you go to wisconsin i want to go

00:37:29.340 back to the house side for a second to to alex yeah when you see a guy like uh adam laxalt alex

00:37:35.180 degrassi up by 20 on independents is that because the issue set is that is that the derivation of the

00:37:41.360 the you know border security 36 crime 23 you got such big spreads because you've messaged rights you

00:37:47.960 picked the right issues in the in the in the electorate and now you're seeing and this is is this

00:37:53.140 where you're seeing hispanics and independents start to come to the republican side is that is

00:37:59.060 that how you is that how adam laxalt's up 20 points by an independence that's exactly right and when you

00:38:04.960 look at our battlegrounds we essentially have those same numbers up by about 19 20 percent in a lot of

00:38:10.480 areas with independence and it's because the independent voters issue set matches what our

00:38:15.960 republican candidates are fighting for it matches you know our issue set and when you have a situation

00:38:21.140 where the independents are aligned with republicans in terms of what they care about that's when and

00:38:27.620 the democrats aren't talking to them they're essentially ceding that territory to us it's

00:38:32.220 really malpractice like no one's really seen before honestly i don't actually understand what

00:38:36.480 they're doing to be honest and the reason is independents are not partisan they're not particularly

00:38:41.280 ideological they may even be closer to some of the lower information voters they're just living their

00:38:46.040 lives they're not really that engaged with it so when you have the issue set that we have crime

00:38:51.620 immigration economy inflation that is people's daily lives it's not these things even some of the

00:38:58.240 cultural issues like abortion or whatever is that what you're seeing is that reinforce this kind of

00:39:03.920 quite frankly shocking spread you're seeing both in the house and embarrass the senate of independents

00:39:09.760 uh looking like they're going to not just vote but turn out and vote for republican candidates

00:39:14.500 yeah that's exactly right and then when you really look at the independents one of the most important

00:39:18.880 demographics is you know this pro-choice voter but they care more about the economy they care more about

00:39:25.040 crime they might be pro-choice in belief but they're not opposed to republicans and so the democrats are

00:39:30.580 throwing all this egg all their eggs into this you know abortion crisis situation but there's a lot of voters

00:39:36.680 out there when you look at these polls that political and mbc are putting up and they say

00:39:40.740 the country's you know 55 pro-vortion this or that it's all misinformation when you look at it voters

00:39:46.900 might be pro-choice but they care a lot more about their grocery bills crime skyrocketing and different

00:39:52.000 things like that we are honing in on that subset educating voters and we are doing very well with

00:39:57.660 that group and it's part of the reason why it lacks all others are in such strong positions as we head into

00:40:02.820 october when you talk about intensity of voters and that's in midterms obviously we're not guys

00:40:09.080 not at the top of the ticket but the intensity of voters particularly people that are still

00:40:12.320 burning with passion on what happened in 3 november of 2020 and you're saying that's one of the big

00:40:16.980 drivers the democrats went overboard with this anti-democracy the j6 are you seeing in the in the

00:40:24.760 congressional side i'll go to richard in a second any traction of that that that's moving voters to

00:40:29.780 to turn out or voters to vote on that topic sir no certainly the only people talking about that

00:40:36.680 are the hyper pensive the msnbc cnn watching democrats that are sitting there and sort of

00:40:42.000 consuming that all day long when you get out into the field and i spend a lot of time out there with

00:40:46.260 the voters that's really it's a non-issue and they have totally blow you know they totally blew it in

00:40:53.620 fact they're actually really helping our people dig deep and work extra hard as volunteers local committee

00:40:59.220 members because this guy got on tv and called everyone semi-fascist people haven't i mean it's

00:41:05.140 getting crazy out there as you know see and everyone watching and our folks are digging in real deep like

00:41:11.380 we've never seen before i mean i think about just at least the phonic district we have like over 10 000

00:41:16.400 people reaching out to us that are begging for lawn signs i mean it's just like crazy energy on the

00:41:23.440 ground among our people we can't even keep up with the amount of signs that people want to put out on

00:41:28.440 the lawn to show support for at least and the republicans in general i mean that's happening

00:41:32.840 everywhere when you say malpractice are you saying that the morning mika's and the joanne reeds and

00:41:40.160 the rachel maddows and that washington you know the washington new york boston acela corridor elites

00:41:46.340 their issue set was theirs in that bubble didn't play in the country they didn't do the work to do it and

00:41:53.080 now they're jammed up at the last second is that when you say that there's this uh you call it

00:41:57.780 malpractice i that's exactly right they have dissociated from essentially the rest of the

00:42:03.940 country they're off sort of talking i guess la la land and you know independent voters republican voters

00:42:10.640 and a significant amount of democrat voters are looking for solutions on the crisis space in the

00:42:16.340 country not this whole you know abortion crisis and things like that like we showed the slide earlier

00:42:22.980 36 percent of voters are looking for you know an abortion candidate and that's mostly the democrat 0.94

00:42:29.860 base when you look a lot of these seats and so a vast majority of voters are looking for a candidate

00:42:35.100 that's going to challenge the cost of living and again that was taken by mbc a lot more democrats in

00:42:40.980 poll our numbers are even stronger than what mbc has so we feel good about it because they because

00:42:46.900 because mbc waited to democrats let me go back to richard barris richard i just came out with wisconsin i think

00:42:52.420 early in the week walk us through wisconsin yeah if we have that one we could throw that up i think 0.66

00:42:57.800 this goes to to being able to return fire ron johnson took a beating um ridiculous um but you know that's

00:43:06.540 something we have to deal with and now that he's had a chance to return fire you know i this reminds me

00:43:12.020 a little bit about like what we saw in 2016 steve only uh we only had ron johnson ahead by about two

00:43:18.360 points in 2016 we have him up by about three now again going to these issues the only issue that mandela

00:43:25.520 barnes leads on it are is the abortion issue uh of the other top four most important issues which by

00:43:31.860 the way were um were cost of living inflation the economy and jobs and then um immigration we had crime 0.73

00:43:38.580 right after that and on that as well ron johnson leads so if you pick those as your most important issue

00:43:44.420 you're voting for ron johnson in wow uh he's doing fantastic but the difference this time i think

00:43:50.440 between what we saw in 16 is that he's also doing very well in the northwestern part of the state

00:43:55.900 right south of ashland and bayfield i go to this all the time with people in wisconsin because this

00:44:01.340 is how pollsters miss wisconsin that obama walker trump voter just south of the birth of the progressive

00:44:09.000 movement which now loves trump and you have all those working class counties over there and they're

00:44:14.440 considered the northwest but they're not heavily populated and they're difficult to poll and people

00:44:20.000 miss them all the time ron johnson is getting that on top of what other republican candidates who have

00:44:25.560 been able to piece together a coalition get so it reminds me a little bit more of maybe let's say

00:44:31.100 walker's re-election coalition when he was re-elected during the recall uh ballpark in that area and even

00:44:38.100 though there's still four and a half uh percent that are undecided look at how many of those voters

00:44:43.160 again not just disapprove but more than 50 of the four and a half who remain undecided for senate

00:44:50.820 more than 50 strongly disapprove you think they're going to vote for mandela barnes wow that's not going

00:44:57.120 to happen so ron johnson is in a is in a uh we see him a strong position steve strong position

00:45:03.460 uh richard hangar for one second i um i want to go back to alex for a second you guys are 100

00:45:10.680 obviously focused on these house races is there because the issue set and what you're seeing of

00:45:17.160 how the democrats took their shot and didn't have any knockout punches and i understand you got

00:45:22.860 candidates of whether for governor or senator or maybe even house that you know may not be clicking

00:45:27.920 their campaigns not be working but overall is this drive in the house can this also with some

00:45:34.000 of these governors and senators it all pulls together and people just voting straight down the ticket

00:45:38.340 and you end up you know one hand washes the other a strong governor helps a house race uh a guy in the

00:45:44.380 senate but you see these these house races where it's all come together and you're putting money on

00:45:49.980 driving their negatives up which is really exposing them to actually what they've been doing which is

00:45:55.280 voting for biden is is that one of the things that you guys are are seeing or is that you believe

00:45:59.900 could happen but absolutely and i'll use oregon as an example we've got a situation in oregon where

00:46:05.880 the republican governors are pouring in you've got two democrats running one as an independent

00:46:11.120 who can split the vote we're neck and neck okay and republicans are very excited again that's a blue

00:46:16.880 state very tough to win so typically you know what's the point of my vote we're never going to win

00:46:21.720 no no this time it's all on the line in oregon a republican governor portland heads are going to

00:46:27.480 explode we have multiple top target seats and i want to use one example oregon five lori chavez 1.00

00:46:33.640 de rima she's a latino woman she was supported by elise gary early on through epac she now is surging

00:46:40.180 the democrats have pulled out pete schrider was a democrat um liberal incumbent and lost the primary to

00:46:47.460 um a far left about socialist defund the police radical who wears it on her sleeve

00:46:52.980 and we're polarizing her we're up by 10 we're up by you know we are winning in a landslide right

00:46:58.680 outside portland and so heads are exploding everywhere we've got multiple target seats in

00:47:04.400 oregon and there's areas where we're running real deep and people are having a meltdown about it and

00:47:09.960 when you talk about the 80 20 where we're spending when we start digging deep the dems are going to turn

00:47:15.500 on each other and go ballistic because they're going to start cutting these guys out cutting them

00:47:20.040 loop and it's going to get crazy on their side when they are faced to make tough decisions about who's

00:47:25.960 safe and who to let um go down on the battlefield alex uh we've got so much more to go through we're

00:47:35.200 going to figure out how to do it this has been a great introductory first off how do people get to

00:47:38.940 elise her campaign uh you know a team elise and also how do they get to her social media and then

00:47:45.080 yours also so if you go to elise for congress.com uh her her page you know elise stefanik truth getter

00:47:52.580 facebook uh twitter all that myself the grass 81 on twitter truth getter all that we need the money

00:48:02.280 with the money that gets sent to elise's campaign account you can check the fbc we shovel that right

00:48:07.840 out the door directly to candidates that matter directly to the party and target areas and that

00:48:12.940 money goes into the general fund and we're able to buy that candidate rate which is critical as

00:48:17.640 opposed to the super pack that have to spend at a much higher rate per tv at so we've got the real

00:48:22.900 smart tactics we appreciate everyone's what an honor to be on and i appreciate it no no so once again

00:48:29.740 where do people go if people want to find out more about this and potentially donate and to get more

00:48:33.540 information where do they go you can go to nrcc.org would be another one that's got the map

00:48:38.200 they've got what seats we're targeting um you can make donations directly to our targeted candidates

00:48:43.300 that got you can kind of click uh you know where you want to go we've got 74 targeted seats and just

00:48:49.180 real quickly you know three of them are in areas that trump won by 10 we only apply if there's a chart

00:48:54.260 if you can get that bigger possible but you know six of them are areas that trump won between five to

00:49:00.040 10 seven of them between zero to five we feel great about all those and it goes real deep down

00:49:05.840 to biden plus over 10 percent and a lot of those are open seats in that biden plus 10 because the

00:49:11.860 democrats have abandoned their district because they know they're going down

00:49:15.200 alex degrassi thank you very much honored to have you on here fantastic presentation

00:49:21.780 uh first of many i'm sure uh richard you've been uh you've been out you've got other polling that's

00:49:28.160 going to come out how do people get to the people's pundit how do they get to your locals

00:49:31.620 best place to follow me is on locals it's people's pundit dot locals dot com and i mean basically you

00:49:38.880 can find everything there uh the nevada poll that was done through the public polling project but

00:49:43.360 that's all we shared on locals as well then i'm on truth and getter at people's pundit and on

00:49:48.480 twitter at people's underscore pundit but locals really is uh the collective of it all steve

00:49:54.120 people's pundit dot locals dot com with doing cd media and big data people just want to know

00:50:00.520 you're going to be dropping other states as we go on i know you've done three two before the labor

00:50:05.060 day a couple three after labor day two people expect more of these battleground states to come

00:50:09.140 out richard burris yes they can for both cd media and uh and for locals we're going to do arizona we're

00:50:16.880 going to do georgia again it's keep stay tuned richard burris you're fantastic the people's pundit

00:50:24.140 okay uh we're going to be back tomorrow morning at 10 o'clock i hope this got you jacked up because

00:50:29.600 it's all coming together but it all depends on you this is all about you with the strategy all of it

00:50:34.880 it's you you you see you tomorrow morning town

00:50:36.560 you

00:50:37.560 you

00:50:39.560 you

00:50:41.560 you

Bannon's War Room - September 22, 2022

WarRoom Battleground EP 143： Breaking Down The Data That The Establishment Fears

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