WarRoom Battleground EP 244： What To Expect In The Primaries
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Summary
Tanya Tay Posobiec joins us to talk all things Republican primary politics, including the latest in the latest CNN/ORC primary poll, and why she thinks it's time to get engaged in the 2020 Republican primary field.
Transcript
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I mean, every day you're out there, what they're doing is blowing people off.
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If you continue to look the other way and shut up, then the oppressors, the authoritarians
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It's another element that backs them into a quarter and shows their lies and misrepresentations.
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This is why this audience is going to have to get engaged.
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All this nonsense, all this spin, they can't handle the truth.
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Well, as you can see, Jack Posobiec here sitting in for Stephen K. Bannon.
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While Steve is off fighting the regime once more.
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But fortunately for all of us here in the audience that I've got sitting next to me,
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riding shotgun as well, the beautiful and lovely Tanya Tay Posobiec.
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Sweetheart, thank you so much for joining us today.
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So when you woke up this morning, you didn't even know that you were going to be hosting,
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Well, what I've realized in our marriage is every time I wake up is a new day full of
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I did promise that it would never be boring, that it would never once be boring.
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When, you know, when we're not having people show up outside of our house screaming.
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But because we have here, Richard Barris, the people's pundit.
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Now, Richard and I haven't spoken in a little while, but we're getting closer to the primary
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We've got a couple of candidates that have kicked off.
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And I wanted to bring Richard on to kind of explain to us what he's looking at and what
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the what the big data poll is looking at in terms of the electorate right now.
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So, Richard, I wanted to get into this because we've seen a lot of these polls out there lately.
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Pretty much all of them at this point are including DeSantis, even though he has not
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I think there's kind of a will he, won't he sort of situation going on right there.
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The Washington Post just had a huge story yesterday saying that if you look at the numbers for
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where Trump and DeSantis are, they're both in that line of where you've seen a lot of
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people go on to eventually win the nomination, you've also seen other candidates out there
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Another name who will be speaking later this week at CPAC is Mike Pompeo.
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There's even kind of a sort of buzz around the neocon warmonger John Bolton as well.
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So I wanted to get your take on what you're seeing with the Republican primary electorate
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Or do you think, like the Washington Post is saying, that Republican primary voters are
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Yeah, so we are including Mike Pompeo in our polling.
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We're including, you know, we're not going crazy like some of these other polls where
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If there's real talk, Jack, and you know and I know we speak to people, whether something
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is serious or not, Nikki Haley is in there, Mike Pence is in there, Donald Trump's in there,
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And look, it's early, but to say that they're ready to move on from Trump is ridiculous.
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The fact is, we did see him tick down after the midterms, but then he popped right back
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up, Jack, and he's looking like he's stronger than in any time before.
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So we're gauging, you know, how many people are just not for Trump.
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But the fact is, he's been in the majority numbers now.
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And a Republican primary, and I just want to say this, they're college educated voters.
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All right, there's a big difference in my mind.
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And this, and a Republican primary is not dominated by these voters.
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So, you know, if, uh, if it's working class and Trump is still thumping everybody by 32,
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Somebody has to pick away the working coalition from Trump.
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So when you, when you're looking at this in terms of it, are you doing national electorate
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Are you doing any early States looking at anything like that?
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We'll do early States fairly soon, but right now we're just looking at the national trend
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because we want, you know, a couple of months ago, I wanted to get a baseline and we'll have
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Uh, these early States tend to move with those national numbers.
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If people remember, uh, Ted Cruz was the state favorite, except for the Seltzer poll.
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He was the state favorite going into the Iowa caucus, but those national numbers were moving
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And he would have beat him if it wasn't for the dirty Carson dropped out trick, which I
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don't know if everybody remembers, but I can actually, you know, make a strong mathematical
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argument that Cruz would not have won the Iowa caucus if he didn't pull that dirty trick.
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And, uh, then obviously by the time we got to New Hampshire, uh, that was Trump's first,
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He took every County in South Carolina, swept those 50 delegates.
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So we're looking at the national this early because it really is a good indicator.
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The States will lag behind, but they will follow the national numbers.
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The momentum will for the most part, for the most part.
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Well, and people, by the way, people forget that trick all the way back in an early 2016.
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But there was this, was it, was it a call or was it an email?
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I remember that went out and then it went out to press and it started getting reported
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everywhere that Carson had dropped out and that was urging people to vote for Cruz.
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For people who don't understand the Iowa caucus, uh, you know, Trump had no precinct captains.
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He just had these like, uh, base, uh, grassroots people unaffiliated with the campaign, making
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Whereas Cruz had precinct captains, captains, and he had infrastructure and he had people
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who were associated and knew the Carson people.
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And his team went out and basically at last, last minute said, Carson dropped out.
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And of course, Karl Rove was anti-Trump, but even Karl Rove said, look, the math is right.
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Uh, those who were saying this, uh, are making a legitimate point and it's not, and we're talking
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If you just convinced four per site, Jack, uh, it would have been over.
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So, um, and that was without Trump having any organization.
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And I was in the first primary contest, you know, he wasn't the favorite last time because
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he wasn't the traditional conservative, but what issue has dominated the Iowa caucuses
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since like the eighties, Jack abortion, Roe v. Wade can social conservative values.
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Trump is the only one who's going to be able to tell the caucus goers in Iowa, they're
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And I think a lot of people have to remember too, that in 2016, the fact that Trump didn't
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win that first out of the gate caucus, it was used then to create this narrative that
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he's never going to reach the threshold for delegates.
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He's never going to reach the threshold delegate.
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And that was, which then, by the way, after he did get there and get there in spades, that
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was then used to say, well, he'll never make it to 270.
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But that was used to create this idea of a horse race and to say that Trump doesn't
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He just doesn't have it down because they game the system of the Iowa caucus.
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Now, what I'm going to say, though, is, is do you see that same type of media narrative
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And it's not, by the way, just on the side of the left, because you also have people like
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And we saw this last week or just a couple of days ago, I posted it on Twitter and it
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went all super viral, where he said that he's not even going to go to the RNC, which is being
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held in Milwaukee, which is his home state, the state that he represented in Wisconsin
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He said that he will boycott the Republican National Convention if Donald J.
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So you're seeing the same type of the media and the establishment lining up against Trump
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If you remember, Mitt Romney laid it out at that, I believe it was the University of
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Utah, you know, vote for the strongest candidate in every state.
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And look, you know, this is not to create a fracture between DeSantis's people and Trump's
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But the fact is, DeSantis is being used to be the stronger candidate in Florida.
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So if you're in South Carolina, Nikki Haley's running.
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They just cobbled together the strategy way too late, Jack.
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They have they have had some time and they're going to try to be a little bit more sophisticated
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But I will tell you this, this idea, you know, I was talking to other pollsters today, earlier
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And the reason why is because this other pollster and I'd say same same dynamic, which is that
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But also, if you look back right now, if depending on the poll you're looking at, whether it's
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any of them in the console poll, Politico's poll, Trump is performing.
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Again, once again, in a crowded field like it was in 2016.
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He's at a level that he didn't even achieve in 16.
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He basically won that primary at 40 to 45 percent of the vote in the polls in the national
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And that that's true even as late as Wisconsin and Indy where they mounted the fight with
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Ted Cruz and then Indiana, which ultimately when Ted Cruz lost, that was it.
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But I mean, The Washington Post is leaving a big part out.
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He's performing stronger than he ever did in 16.
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There is an element, though, that wants him to just they tell us that Trump is their number
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one choice, but they do want Trump to focus on his record.
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And, you know, we're looking and trying to measure that right now and see where, you know,
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But they want him to basically just Grover Cleveland, this puppy, Jack, you know, you
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The country fell apart exactly how I told you it was going to fall apart.
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Just like Grover Cleveland did, you know, which would be he would if he wins, he would
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be the second president behind Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms like this.
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I again, I just don't know how much that now part of the electorate is yet steadily, you
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And that would because those people would be persuadable.
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I think at this point, Trump's ceiling is pretty high.
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I mean, his floor is pretty high and something else would have to happen, unlike last time
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where, you know, he he's got a vulnerability, but it's early.
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You can't drag on beyond, you know, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
00:13:04.720
Well, and one of the most interesting pieces that I saw in the Washington Post analysis,
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and it was sort of an analysis of a of the poll of polls.
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And I think you're also seeing this bear out in the Emerson poll today that came out was
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that when they asked, they went to the Trump voters and their Trump supporters, and they
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also went to the DeSantis supporters and they said, who's your second choice?
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So for Trump supporters, pretty much their top second choice was Ron DeSantis.
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But for all the DeSantis voters or pretty much every single supporter, it was all Donald
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And there was actually that clip that was going around on Fox News this morning that
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basically said that she had the shirt on and she said either or.
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So with that type of dynamic, does it make sense then?
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Does Trump want it to be one on one or does he actually perform better?
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Because then he has the option of being able to go after more of those voters who are looking
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at him potentially as a second choice or to your point could be persuaded.
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Yeah, I think it would be and I'm glad you brought that up, that part of the poll up.
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When they're looking at this poll of polls, I would argue that a lot of those polls are
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That's why you're seeing really two universes right now.
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You have us, Harris, Emerson, and then you have some of these other ones that are kind
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out in left field, even though Fox is too educated, yet Trump still did so well in that
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If you're anti-Trump, you'd want it to consolidate quickly.
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If you're Trump, you'd rather it be fractured for a while.
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But here's here's the real hidden gem that nobody wants to say and you will not hear about
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If your guy does not win, will you vote at all in the fall?
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Because there's this massive chunk of Trump voters who just aren't going to vote Republican.
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Let me just leave everybody with this, you know, a little food for thought, something to
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This Obama coalition, Bernie coalition even come out and vote for a Republican candidate.
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In 2020, we saw again, not only them, but more come into the electorate.
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So one of my main questions right now is if Trump was not to get the nomination, how many
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I mean, I think anyone who's being honest has to admit that there is a vote block that
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will come out for Trump that will not come out for a Republican.
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The counter argument to that is, well, he brings out Democrats, too.
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Ladies and gentlemen, no matter whom, who is the nominee on the Republican side, Democrats
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are going to mail their ballots in, you know, like wink, wink, mail their ballots in.
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So you better make sure you get as many voters to the polls to counter them as possible.
00:16:00.680
And I'm going to have a good idea by, you know, you know, not even by the end of this
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I mean, the point is to try to gauge this early because I'm thinking it's it's 20, 30 percent.
00:16:11.940
There are just a ton of Trump voters who say it's Trump.
00:16:15.760
And Richard, you know, and sweetheart, you can mention this as well, because, look, we've
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been up to we were in central Pennsylvania recently and we were in western Pennsylvania.
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We went up to do a little skiing on the weekend.
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I've got a I've got a skier here, someone who is very interested, loves it, actually fell
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in love with it, fell in love with it a couple of years ago.
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We were in western PA and then we were up in Harrisburg recently.
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But tell us, what were the signs that we saw on every single house when we were driving
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around up in Pennsylvania those last two weekends?
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So the area of Pennsylvania where we were at, there's not much of a highway to say.
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And some of the little towns that we were passing by, they had huge, just those giant Trump
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And if I had to take a pick, I would say that majority of this little town will be voting
00:17:12.660
We're what, 18 months, 20 months away from the election.
00:17:21.040
And have you seen anything like this in American politics?
00:17:23.980
This idea that in these key parts of the Rust Belt that and it's the same story in West
00:17:31.820
It's the same story, of course, we just saw East Palestine, that they even out of office,
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I don't think there's anything been like this since the start of American, at least modern
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Like if there's another example, we were not alive for this.
00:17:59.680
There's certain parts of even other battleground states like Florida, North Carolina, where,
00:18:04.680
you know, I think a Republican candidate is going to do well in Florida.
00:18:07.200
It's not going to be Republican plus 20, folks.
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In a presidential cycle, Florida will narrow again.
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Although I think Florida is Republican at this point.
00:18:16.540
But, you know, you look at some of these other states that are getting really close, Jack,
00:18:20.400
and, you know, by us, for instance, there are these working class Hispanics.
00:18:24.540
They haven't, you know, there are dumpsters all over the place because they're putting
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up houses and they haven't stopped spray painting the dumpsters Trump, you know.
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The other side is like, now we're getting close.
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And these are like Guatemalans and Mexicans, you know, like these are working class Hispanics.
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If you go up to them and you ask them whether they'll vote for anybody else, there is no
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And I'll let you in on a little thing we're going to be talking more about.
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In the polling that we did in 2022, looking back at Laxol, we had Lombardo winning by about
00:19:04.940
We did not have Lombardo up by five like some other people.
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But we did think Laxol was going to inch it out.
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Looking back at why Laxol and Lombardo had close races versus and it's not just Nevada,
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Why Trump was pulling so far ahead of these other candidates, it's urban and and then the
00:19:30.640
But these non-white working class urban voters.
00:19:34.460
So in Clark County, we had Lombardo down by about five.
00:19:39.140
But Trump was up by three in Clark County in our polling.
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In Washoe, it was about even Lombardo just eked it out.
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And I shared the polling with you in Pennsylvania.
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Even when we thought Oz could eke it out a little bit, he was nowhere near Trump who was
00:20:00.680
Because of non-white and other white voters in Allegheny, where Oz did bad.
00:20:08.300
So, you know, these voters, you know, it's just a big question in my mind.
00:20:12.900
I think it's one of the most important questions this cycle, which is if Trump doesn't get the
00:20:19.760
But if he doesn't get it, how bad would this hurt the inevitable candidate?
00:20:27.400
And, you know, coming out of 2020, you know, just hearing from these people and polling
00:20:32.460
them, you know, well in what, two years, I don't know what somebody who's not a Trump
00:20:40.360
These are people who are either new to the process and are inspired by him, or they're
00:20:45.220
really old to the process and quit a long time ago because they felt like their vote
00:20:50.860
I think Harrisburg, Juniata County, areas like that in Pennsylvania, those are like
00:20:55.540
perfect examples of those voters who just maybe after Bush v.
00:21:07.520
And then you have a lot of these newly naturalized, especially Hispanic men who would vote for
00:21:15.040
Obviously, even though they told us if they were going to vote, they probably would have voted
00:21:22.100
If it was a presidential cycle, they would have voted.
00:21:24.840
And we saw this, by the way, even in the Central Valley in California.
00:21:35.920
And it's something where I, and I've said this and President Trump has retweeted or
00:21:40.760
retruthed, whatever you want to say, my proposal for this, to say that you need to have, if you're
00:21:46.020
in a state that allows ballot harvesting, allows the drop boxes, you got to get in the
00:21:50.260
You have to put these in the back of every church.
00:21:52.560
You got to have them on every Sunday that's there.
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If there's a, you know, if there's a gun show, shooting range at the racetrack, you know,
00:22:02.700
all of these things, you've got to be able to find the voters where they are.
00:22:06.420
Because, by the way, and I say this as a son of Pennsylvania, that in the state of Pennsylvania,
00:22:12.460
because, and I'm just going to put it out there, and as political prognosticators, we
00:22:17.000
have to talk about this, that there is a very good chance that Fetterman's seat could come
00:22:26.900
There is a good chance just because, look, the medical issues are what they are.
00:22:30.900
And my, you know, my heart goes out to him and the family.
00:22:33.080
But it is what it is, and under Pennsylvania law, that the current governor, Josh Shapiro,
00:22:38.660
would only have the ability to appoint someone until the next general election.
00:22:46.280
There's also Casey's seat, which is coming up, and there's some rumblings out there,
00:22:49.640
by the way, that I don't know if everybody knows this, but there's some rumblings that
00:22:56.280
So that Casey name that basically gave him immortality and vulnerability in Pennsylvania, now you have
00:23:02.960
two potentially open seats, or, you know, if Shapiro appoints like a Conor Lamb, he'd be running for a
00:23:09.320
full term in his own right, or excuse me, he'd be running for the final two years and then have to run
00:23:15.720
So you might have a chance where at Pennsylvania, you've got all those electoral votes that are on
00:23:20.700
the table, plus two Senate seats, which, by the way, would swing the Senate all on the ballot
00:23:30.400
I think you're going to see a ton in Pennsylvania.
00:23:33.760
Yeah, Jack, we call it the Keystone State for a reason, right?
00:23:38.640
And it could be always important, but it could be, it's always important, but it could be even that much more
00:23:47.480
People always ask me all the time, how do we counter this ballot harvesting?
00:23:52.500
The best thing you could do about shenanigans or harvests of, you know, operations that are
00:23:57.100
legitimate is to reduce the size of the remaining outstanding ballot count.
00:24:07.140
You know, we did speak to a lot of people who did a really good job last year doing that.
00:24:10.820
Mark Molinaro in New York, his campaign was all about nudging, you know, those votes out
00:24:17.760
I'm not giving them praise like so many other people do.
00:24:21.560
They got a very white turnout and a very slow, a very low turnout.
00:24:25.840
Again, when you look at places like the Central Valley where Democrats harvest, some of those
00:24:32.980
They will lose their races if Hispanics come out and they don't have a reason to vote Republican
00:24:39.720
And just that's something, food for, more food for thought.
00:24:42.340
So they didn't bring themselves to go to the polls and vote Democrat before, even with Democrats
00:24:49.540
But they still were not given a reason to vote Republican with the candidates, some of those
00:24:56.200
candidates that Kevin McCarthy backed him and put on the ballot.
00:25:02.680
In 2024, these are people who do have presidential cycle vote history.
00:25:07.580
They will come out and they'll make a decision one way or the other.
00:25:11.200
If you don't give them a reason to vote Republican at the top, chances are you're not going to
00:25:18.580
So you could be looking at David Valadeo, Mike Garcia, definitely John Duarte, just all going
00:25:25.060
Duarte won by like 400 votes in a majority Hispanic district where 50.8% turnout occurred, Jack.
00:25:36.360
Richard, we are coming up, coming up on our, uh, coming up on our final minute with you.
00:25:45.560
Yeah, we're going to be doing that, uh, public.
00:25:49.160
It's going to be a public poll, a nomination poll real soon, Monday, Wednesday, Monday, Wednesday
00:25:53.360
and Fridays, noon to 12 is inside the numbers, but the best place to follow us, Jack.
00:25:57.560
And what we're doing is on locals, peoples, pundit.locals.com.
00:26:01.260
And you could just see everything that's going on from there.
00:26:11.620
Well, my, uh, my best wishes to the whole family and I just hope to see her soon.
00:26:20.580
And, and, and, and strap in because we have a lot of work, Richard, we're going to be leaning
00:26:25.340
on you a lot over these next 20 months through the primary, going through that cycle all the
00:26:32.020
way to Milwaukee in 2024 in the summertime, you and I will go get cheese curds together.
00:26:36.020
And then of course, all the way out to, well, I'm not going to, I'm not going, I'm not going
00:26:43.500
You'll have to bring some home with you as well.
00:26:46.040
No, I'm going to have them and then I'm going to bring them home and Kyle Rittenhouse is
00:26:58.180
Folks, stay tuned because we have an update from Ukraine coming up next with the great Jordan
00:27:06.120
Jack Posobiec, Tanya Tay, host of Human Events Daily here sitting in for the great Stephen
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In my younger days, I was a naval officer on a destroyer.
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Also, what NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member of our alliance, but
00:30:33.220
at the same time, that is a long-term perspective.
00:30:35.920
What is the issue now is to ensure that Ukraine prevail as a sovereign independent nation,
00:30:45.380
I see that the future of Ukraine is to be part of European Union and also member of NATO.
00:30:54.540
We have taken many steps forward when it comes to military aid to Ukraine, and I'm very glad
00:31:00.280
that we are now cooperating together much more closely to give Ukraine more heavy weapons.
00:31:07.640
I think the discussion now, even though it's have taken some time, it's been very important
00:31:17.280
So countries are cooperating together more closely and more widely, and this is a very good thing.
00:31:24.140
We have to support Ukraine as long as it takes, and they also need more heavy weapons.
00:31:29.820
And the faster and the sooner we can give them more heavy weapons, the sooner the war will end.
00:31:35.760
And this is something that we also need, that cooperation between the democratic countries.
00:31:42.140
Finland has taken many decisions on arms support to Ukraine, and we are willing to continue this
00:31:49.340
The Ukrainian government is one of the worst in the world, corrupt, controlled by a few rich people.
00:32:04.040
I mean, really unfortunate for the people in Ukraine.
00:32:08.120
Ukraine has better agricultural land than the United States does.
00:32:18.080
All right, Bill Gates there saying that the government of Ukraine is one of the most corrupt
00:32:26.840
And then you got Sultenberg from NATO saying that we absolutely must bring Ukraine in,
00:32:33.420
that it will be a member of NATO, which of course we're told is one of the things that
00:32:37.680
started this entire conflict over and over because Russia does not want Ukraine, this buffer
00:32:43.600
state, this formerly neutral country, to be part of NATO.
00:32:47.180
And of course, you've got the Prime Minister of Finland say that we're going to do everything
00:32:50.800
We're going to do everything that it takes to continue this war.
00:32:54.720
Well, to help explain all of this, because I think it's confusing for so many people, especially
00:33:00.380
people who have family and friends that are in the region or from the region and understand
00:33:06.740
the history of horrific warfare that's going on in this theater, I wanted to bring on Jordan
00:33:12.560
Choctel, the publisher of the dossier on Substack, who has been just an absolute expert on Ukraine.
00:33:19.540
And Jordan, I don't know, have you ever actually agreed with Bill Gates before?
00:33:34.320
Why is it that on one hand, you've got a guy like Bill Gates, of all people, coming out
00:33:39.100
saying that this is one of the most corrupt governments, but then also, at the same time,
00:33:43.320
the head of NATO is saying they will be made a member, they're going to be brought in as
00:33:47.240
a member, when of course, corruption is one of the things that they look for when it comes
00:33:53.520
Yeah, and this whole idea that in the middle of fighting a war, that we're somehow going
00:34:00.940
to also wage this battle to make Ukraine a more transparent place, like this is the worst
00:34:06.620
possible time when they have so much, I mean, they shouldn't have leverage against us.
00:34:11.580
But the reality is that, you know, this administration is just giving everything to them that they
00:34:17.540
You know, the hearing today in Congress was all about sending them F-16s.
00:34:22.580
Soon we can get their pilots trained on these sophisticated fourth generation platforms
00:34:28.560
that they've never even seen before that, you know, they can't even read the language.
00:34:32.740
So it's going to be an uphill battle to get transparency.
00:34:36.620
One of the, some of the reports that are coming out of Ukraine are fascinating.
00:34:41.040
Of course, they've integrated like these fascist militias into their special forces, because,
00:34:47.300
They're fighting a war, but that's a whole separate issue.
00:34:49.960
So you have this issue of extremists obtaining our weapons.
00:34:54.620
You also have this issue of there's no real accounting process there.
00:34:59.940
Their military high ranking officials write, as of recently, have been writing paper receipts
00:35:08.260
And now Colin Call, one of the top defense officials in the U.S. and the Biden administration, close
00:35:16.500
advisor to Joe Biden himself, said that they've actually now exported scanners to Ukraine so
00:35:22.480
they can scan in these munitions now when they get them.
00:35:26.040
So they're very positive that there's going to be some type of transparency.
00:35:30.320
But I totally agree with Bill Gates on this issue, that there's no way we're going to fix the
00:35:36.180
corruption in Ukraine, especially in the middle of a war that is that is capturing everyone's
00:35:44.740
Well, you've written quite extensively about the the oligarchs in Ukraine.
00:35:50.520
We hear about the oligarchs of Russia all the time.
00:35:55.060
But you also have these sort of like anti Putin oligarchs that are mostly outside of
00:35:58.940
Russia. But we suddenly stopped hearing completely about the oligarchs of Ukraine.
00:36:04.240
And I've certainly reported on this quite a bit.
00:36:09.160
Because you had an interesting piece up the other day where you said you look reading the
00:36:13.920
tea leaves that you didn't think that Russia was a country that was ripe for a coup, but
00:36:18.280
potentially Zelensky might be looking at one himself.
00:36:21.100
Yeah, our corporate press has been on a spin campaign on overdrive in recent weeks and
00:36:29.500
months because Zelensky or whoever is directing him has been firing basically every single
00:36:36.640
high ranking member in Kiev, every member of their bureaucracy, you know, the deputy minister
00:36:44.340
of everything. The the the three top ranking officials in the minister, ministry of the
00:36:50.740
interior interior department, which is significant position.
00:36:54.820
They recently died in a helicopter crash over Kiev.
00:36:58.300
So there's all this weird stuff happening just Sunday.
00:37:02.900
Zelensky fired his top general who was responsible for commanding the joint forces in Ukraine.
00:37:08.760
He's gone, hasn't really given an excuse to what exactly is going on.
00:37:13.080
And we know through his public bickering with particularly Klitschko, you know, the former
00:37:20.740
boxing champion, who's the mayor of Kiev, that Zelensky is very well aware of the reality that
00:37:26.160
there are people who are trying to usurp his political position.
00:37:31.460
Yeah. Zelensky, of course, is very influential with his foreign backers.
00:37:35.980
But domestically, the situation is getting more and more dicey, whereas in Russia, it's
00:37:43.640
Unfortunately, the polling in Russia isn't great, but there's an independent pollster called
00:37:47.240
the Levada Center, which is recognized by the West as an independent pollster.
00:37:52.400
And they have Putin's approval rating at 82 percent.
00:37:54.740
So I don't think that Putin should really fear so much of a coup, even though the Western
00:38:00.160
presses and Western officials are insisting that is the case.
00:38:04.220
I think it's much more likely that Zelensky's internal political position of power is certainly
00:38:12.580
in play and will continue to be so as the fog of war kind of clears, as this honeymoon period
00:38:19.640
continues to drift away as all these hundreds of billions of dollars continue to enter Ukraine.
00:38:27.200
And Ukraine is seemingly not capable of pushing back these Russian offenses in areas where the
00:38:34.200
population seems to be not so hostile to Russia.
00:38:40.060
And there are certainly going to be opposing forces within the country that Zelensky's foreign supporters
00:38:54.960
And I think everyone should remember that Zelensky's main opponent, or for folks who aren't
00:39:00.600
aware of this, when he ran for president, was the former president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko,
00:39:13.680
And this idea that he is, by the way, still a member of the Rada, which is Ukrainian parliament.
00:39:21.080
And so he still wields a strong amount of political power.
00:39:24.800
So could be a potential rival for Zelensky if he's able to gobble up, sort of collect these
00:39:31.300
different various factions that perhaps don't like the fact that Zelensky has been taking
00:39:38.440
And at the end of the day, because we see day after day after day, and not to put you
00:39:44.860
on the spot, but I know that you look at some of the stories that have come out, the families.
00:39:50.580
Does it seem to you like these families that are caught in the middle of this are getting
00:39:54.660
any of this money, all these billions of dollars that are going back and forth?
00:39:58.160
So the topic of Ukraine is probably one of the hardest for me to talk about because I
00:40:08.320
And looking back at it, I mean, we're looking at a one year mark and God only knows how long
00:40:16.100
And if you hear about the policies that are being discussed with all the talks from NATO,
00:40:22.160
you know, all the billions of dollars pouring in the country.
00:40:25.120
We are so far from even reaching any agreement or coming to the peace.
00:40:30.700
And I think if you come to the common folk and if you ask them what they want, they don't
00:40:36.980
They don't want all the guns pouring in their country.
00:40:45.400
I think they want the families who are right now scattered all over the world, speaking million
00:40:50.540
languages, the ones that they don't even understand, having their kids going to schools that are
00:40:57.160
I think they just want everybody home in Ukraine.
00:41:06.140
And they want to keep the family together because no amount of money can make up for a missing
00:41:12.200
dad, a missing brother, a lack of sons by their mother's side.
00:41:16.800
So for the people of Ukraine, and if we really talk about what the people of Ukraine want,
00:41:23.140
we need to approach them and not just listen to all the politicians who are interested in
00:41:29.000
the money aspect of it, because money is power, is influence.
00:41:33.640
And what the common people want, they want peace and they want prosperity of their home
00:41:52.500
But Jordan, that's exactly right, because prior to all of this, this war, it's exactly what
00:41:59.280
Bill Gates said that I think Zelensky, the main thing people knew him for was the Panama
00:42:04.100
Yeah, yeah, it's, you know, Tanya makes a great point that, especially in Ukraine, it's
00:42:12.120
a country that's very divided, but we only hear really one perspective.
00:42:16.260
And that's because Zelensky has basically eliminated the media and political opposition through
00:42:23.420
orders of fiat, where he just says that he has the power because of martial law and he's
00:42:29.280
shutting down your TV station or he's imprisoning his political opponents.
00:42:33.820
And this is the fight for democracy they're supposedly having.
00:42:37.420
But yet, I mean, the oligarch situation in Ukraine, along with many post-Soviet countries,
00:42:44.920
And there are a lot of people responsible for that situation occurring.
00:42:49.700
And I can't believe I'm saying this, but Bill Gates is exactly right.
00:42:52.520
You know, this is a land with extremely rich resources, yet extreme poverty.
00:43:00.280
And if you think that U.S. aid is going to the individual Ukrainian citizens, I would point
00:43:07.380
you to the $2.3 trillion that was allocated to Afghanistan and all of these reports from
00:43:15.080
rights organizations where the children are starving in Afghanistan.
00:43:21.420
You think this $100 billion every single year that's going to Ukraine is going to feed families?
00:43:28.520
It seems that it's just going to support the war effort to pay off bureaucrats to make
00:43:36.360
But the people who always get screwed in these wars is the average citizen and the average
00:43:43.460
And it's kind of just the global theme of intercontinental conflict with these great powers.
00:43:57.300
And at the same time, we also have to remember there are people back in the United States that
00:44:02.520
There's been some reporting that your good friend and mine, Colonel, Colonel, Colonel, Colonel,
00:44:09.200
Colonel Alexander Vindman, is hanging a shingle out there with him and his brother.
00:44:15.120
And they want to create a defense contracting company that's going to be doing logistics to
00:44:19.620
try to make money off of the middle piece of this, because you're going to have all this
00:44:23.520
American equipment going over their tanks and other vehicles that are potentially going
00:44:32.220
You can't train somebody to learn how to fix one of these things just in the middle of
00:44:37.680
And you haven't done any training on it before.
00:44:39.060
The Bradley fighting vehicles, the strikers, et cetera, that they're talking about bringing
00:44:46.840
He wants to go and set up Americans, bring veterans over, defense contract.
00:44:51.040
This is the same type of mission creep that happened in Afghanistan.
00:44:58.460
Well, suddenly now there's Americans there that are veterans.
00:45:01.400
And then, oh, what happens if one of those veterans get hit?
00:45:03.480
Because if you set up one of these centers, what do you think the Russians are going to
00:45:07.000
They're not going to go for each tank, but if they can take out the place, they build it.
00:45:13.780
Let us know, where can people go to follow you to get more information?
00:45:18.100
Yeah, you can find all of my work over at the dossier at Substack, dossier.substack.com.
00:45:24.680
So much appreciate having conversations with you guys.
00:45:31.700
Jordan Schochtel, everyone, I urge everyone to go and check out the dossier, check out
00:45:37.380
We'll have to have you on and certainly have you on for Human Events Daily as well sometime.
00:45:46.680
And that really is, I think, one of the biggest pieces.
00:45:49.500
And I appreciate you saying that, dear, is that, you know, I think in all of these cases
00:45:54.680
that you're right there, you know, and look, I look at it from a military perspective, you
00:45:59.460
know, what's, is Bakhmut going to be encircled?
00:46:07.840
But at the same time, there are people, little people, the regular people, the normal people,
00:46:13.040
the Lao Baixing, the deplorables that are just caught up in the middle of all of this
00:46:22.880
They just got handed a decision that right now this is what's happening without even being
00:46:30.880
They've been, many of them have no choice but to flee the country because they don't want
00:46:34.700
to get caught in fire, they fear for their life.
00:46:38.900
And I think what those people really want is to live in their houses, you know, go to
00:46:46.280
their schools, not have to worry about speaking another language.
00:46:51.840
Ukrainian people are literally being stripped of their national identity when they're being
00:46:56.600
sent all over the world as refugees where nobody speaks their language.
00:47:01.280
Their kids are not learning their language, where they have close to zero of Ukrainian
00:47:10.200
We're looking at the destruction of Ukrainian national identity.
00:47:15.500
And that's that people don't realize that a lot of those people, a lot of those people
00:47:19.800
are just going to just to point out that you're also going to have situations where people
00:47:29.420
Now, you don't speak the language if you're in if you're in France, if you're in Germany,
00:47:32.840
if you're in, you know, even even even even with Poland, at least there's there's more
00:47:59.220
Now, we just had we were we were talking to Jordan Chuck tell about Ukraine, but then we
00:48:05.640
A lot of these new polls that we're seeing come out of the presidential field.
00:48:12.980
You're seeing some you're seeing some support for DeSantis.
00:48:17.540
But there's also these all these other guys out there.
00:48:20.060
What are you looking at when you see these polls?
00:48:23.720
Well, the poll that came out today from Emerson is about as close to reality from a mainstream
00:48:38.060
What's interesting is that Pence and Nikki Haley each group two points from January.
00:48:44.280
And that total of four is what the governor of Florida went down from twenty nine to twenty
00:48:50.880
President Trump at fifty five continue to dominate the field, absolutely destroying everybody
00:49:00.840
The MAGA movement, the Republican Party, the real Republican Party are with President Trump.
00:49:07.880
You got Brian Kilmeade at a at a diner in what I believe to be DeSantis district.
00:49:23.000
The American people with President Trump and the polls are reflecting that he's dominating
00:49:30.940
Now, do you think that's going to stay that way?
00:49:32.460
Do you think any what if what if Pompeo gets in?
00:49:35.380
What if Tim Scott gets in some of these other names?
00:49:37.540
Do you think that'll have any effect whatsoever?
00:49:39.220
Yes, I think the effect that it'll have is it'll make it even clearer how much the American
00:49:45.880
people in our country need Donald Trump, President Donald J. Trump back in the Oval
00:49:51.360
And I think his lead is only going to continue to grow.
00:49:53.720
And you've seen that over the last several months.
00:49:58.540
Pence, Nikki Haley, others, they're not pulling for President Donald J. Trump.
00:50:06.420
And it's just it's a competition for second, third, fourth place.
00:50:09.940
That's what would be smart for all these so-called candidates to not get in the race.
00:50:14.120
Call us behind President Trump and let's go win the White House back.
00:50:20.200
Do you think that that when, you know, looking at the VP side, that any of these might many
00:50:24.160
of these people might be throwing their hats in because they're looking to actually run
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for a VP pick, actually looking for that second slot?
00:50:35.840
Maybe the VP side, maybe it's to sell books, maybe it's to get contracts.
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But what is absolutely clear is none of them have a shot to be the Republican nominee.
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And for those who haven't gotten in, they should be thinking long and hard about whether they
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want to end their political careers and enter the quicksand.
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Because if you look at 2016, President Trump decimated the Republican establishment before
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