00:01:04.720It's Monday, 4 August, Year of Ruler 2025.
00:01:07.400Thank you for being here for the second hour of the afternoon show.
00:01:10.680Huge breaking news of Natalie, our White House correspondent, to join us.
00:01:14.700Number one, Bolsonaro has been arrested.
00:01:16.880The police are currently searching President Bolsonaro's home.
00:01:20.500This is, and I'm reading off a tweet by Michael Schellenberger, hours after the release of the January 8 file showing illegal activity by Brazil's most powerful Supreme Court justice,
00:01:32.200He has ordered the house arrest of former President Bolsonaro.
00:01:35.840Before we get to our other topic, Natalie, your reaction.
00:01:40.020This is starting to ratchet up Lula over the weekend, trashing President Trump, trashing the U.S. dollar, saying that Brazil will never, his administration will never fold to President Trump.
00:01:51.000And now we have the arrest and, I guess, the house confinement of President Bolsonaro.
00:01:56.580Well, I think Brazil is sort of a representation of what they want to do to the broader global populist movement.
00:02:03.540What was it, two or three years ago, I remember we were standing in Arizona speaking at AmFest, talking about how we had unearthed a trove, I believe it was National Science Foundation grants,
00:02:13.600highlighting how they were spending U.S. tax dollars not on just debunking misinformation but on pre-bunking what they deemed misinformation that was supportive to the populist movement in Brazil.
00:02:24.560And I think that that's a very emblematic sort of story about not just how the United States has been involved in Brazil but what Brazil represents to the sort of American elite here, the ruling class.
00:02:35.980They view it, I think, what really can only be summed up in the election of Bolsonaro, right, as a Brazilian populist uprising, and they are doing everything they can to crush them.
00:02:45.760You throw in, I think, Chinese Communist Party influence and obviously rogue judges.
00:02:50.080That's an issue we're experiencing here, and that's why you've seen, what is it?
00:02:53.600I feel like every day there's a new development there that we could probably dedicate a whole show to.
00:02:58.340But make no mistake, it's about the populist movement more broadly.
00:03:01.940Natalie, another kind of – and people are kind of wondering how this even came about.
00:03:10.800But explain what had been announced and then it's just been reversed.
00:03:14.780In fact, I think DHS has just come out and said – from the White House said it's been reversed.
00:03:19.260What – it was this kind of announcement or leak this morning about emergency aid tied to dealing with Israel as a nation state.
00:03:32.860If there was ever even something for them in the first place, can you explain what happened at the White House?
00:03:38.440Yeah, I think there was potentially a very large miscarriage of what it means to be America first, particularly in the DHS guidelines for federal aid, emergency response assistance.
00:06:09.700This is not about just even some individual.
00:06:11.620This is a systemic problem that you've identified.
00:06:14.760What do you think is the problem we have, and what is, sir, the solution?
00:06:19.280Well, Steve, the problem is at least twofold.
00:06:24.500One is the fact that we're relying on outdated methods of collecting data, and then two, we're
00:06:30.660relying on outdated methodologies in terms of processing that data.
00:06:35.600And the result is kind of garbage in, garbage out, if you will.
00:06:40.500Unfortunately, we're just not getting enough accurate information into the Bureau in a timely enough manner for the folks there to actually do anything with it.
00:06:50.460In other words, turn that data into a usable product and then disseminate it to the American people.
00:06:55.980And that is very important to get the information into the hands of the American people, but it's also very important to get it into the hands of major decision makers like the Federal Reserve, for crying out loud, who's supposedly making interest rate decisions based on some of these numbers.
00:07:11.340And not just here in D.C., but also in Manhattan, you have Wall Street, who's relying on these numbers.
00:07:18.240It's absolutely imperative that they be as accurate as possible.
00:07:22.600And unfortunately, that just hasn't been the case.
00:07:24.580So we need somebody at BLS, in my opinion, who's really willing to kind of take, I guess, Steve, the best way to put it is take an approach of leaving no stone unturned.
00:07:36.860In other words, you have to be willing to look at absolutely everything, whether it's in terms of that data collection or whether it's in terms of creating these reports, the different, again, the different methodologies that they have to use to take these survey samples and try to estimate for the broader nation.
00:07:55.780You need someone who's willing to essentially overhaul the entire thing.
00:08:00.860It is very clear that the different models, for example, that we were using before the pandemic are not as good today.
00:08:07.940And it's not because there was anything wrong with the models previously.
00:08:10.920It's because the economic conditions in the country have changed.
00:08:15.000And so we need to change to adapt to that.
00:08:18.940And also, I don't think there's any reason we need to rely on such outdated methods for collecting the information in the first place.
00:08:25.860When we have so many advanced ways of communicating today and also so many more advanced ways of just getting the data in the door, so much of what used to be done, for example, by mail was then done by telephone and by fax.
00:08:42.940And now we just simply send emails or some of this information is literally just updated in real time online.
00:08:50.780It is long past time then that the BLS have access to that kind of information and, again, be able to communicate all of these things as quickly as possible.
00:09:01.700One of the things that was uncovered by Doge, for example, is how all of these different parts of government don't actually communicate with each other.
00:09:11.220And so even though the information is technically readily available from Group A, it doesn't actually get to Group B because there's no interface there between Group A and Group B.
00:09:22.740Those are the kinds of things that I think you need to fix at BLS.
00:09:26.860And the sooner you get that done, the sooner you can start producing reliable estimates in a timely manner.
00:09:33.420And frankly, Steve, when it comes to trust in this organization, I don't think a change of leadership is sufficient.
00:09:40.140I think it's going to take a change of leadership, but also a lot of time.
00:09:44.640It's like if you have any kind of relationship and someone lies to you, what happens?
00:11:34.420Clearly, the way things have been done the last several years have not worked, basically ever since the pandemic, right?
00:11:41.000That's when things really started breaking down.
00:11:44.040So things, you know, we need a redo at BLS, essentially.
00:11:47.980And I don't think there's anything wrong with whether it's BLS or any other part of government from time to time re-evaluating it and saying things aren't working.
00:14:08.480Well, putting aside what Natalie just spoke about, the bill that would criminalize or imperil disaster relief funding that apparently is now removed.
00:14:18.480What is coming out of Israel today is that, per reporting, I don't believe fully confirmed as of when we're taping this, that Netanyahu has decided to, quote, occupy Gaza.
00:14:31.840So this is potentially Israeli door-to-door, high-casualty, high-intensity warfare and moving towards the full annexation and deportation of the residents there.
00:14:48.480This is one thing if Israel was planning to do this themselves.
00:14:53.460But, of course, as you have diagnosed, Israel is not an independent actor.
00:14:59.340And the likelihood, I should say, the certitude that they're going to come knocking on the door here in Washington, either later this summer or early autumn, for one, the U.S. to get involved in a big way with the redevelopment of Gaza.
00:15:12.960Gaza sort of shelved for the last few months was the so-called Gaza Lago program that, you know, where you would get Donald Trump, President Trump to spend, you know, untold amount of manpower and U.S. taxpayer dollars to redevelop Gaza into a sort of halcyon, you know, dreamlike waterfront property that I think is a pipe dream.
00:15:37.300And then number two, and probably most likely to happen, not the redevelopment, is to reopen the war with Iran in the autumn.
00:15:46.760I think that is most likely what is going to happen here, because this has been a consistency of Netanyahu's approach to the war.
00:15:54.420Netanyahu actually hasn't been focused on Hamas.
00:15:59.400It is the official stated goal of the war.
00:16:02.000But any time he can open up a new front, whether it be Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iran and get the U.S. involved in a heavy way, he'll do that.
00:16:10.480Why – let's go back to this military in the occupied Gaza because it seems pretty dramatic.
00:16:19.740The idea for whatever reason, whether they haven't been taken off the chain, whether they've been dispersed to take care of Hezbollah or now in Syria or to focus on the situation with the Persians, Hamas, the military aspect of it, I don't know.
00:16:33.660They still have 20,000, 40,000 combatants down there.
00:16:38.740How can you – given that they're concerned about casualties, the world is concerned about casualties, Netanyahu – I saw a report today I think from the New York Times saying that he had already burned up a lot of his political capital internally on the – of the 12-day war.
00:16:58.100President Trump says, hey, he wants the fighting to stop.
00:17:00.180He wants the hostages released, particularly the 20 living hostages, and some of the videos are showing of these individuals looking emaciated and obviously have been tortured.
00:17:10.840Why would we jump to all of a sudden occupy Gaza?
00:17:13.840That would seem the most extreme where he had the least international support because in particular the United States, to occupy Gaza, to go block by block to a place that looks like Dresden right now
00:17:26.120and have to take out – try to take out the Muslim Brotherhood now that you've let them hang around for 18 months is going to be the bloodiest part of the war.
00:17:45.140Yeah, no, Whitcoff has clearly been dispatched by the president to get a sense of the lay of the land, to get a sense of how bad the Gaza carnage is,
00:17:53.320but also potentially to be subjected to a propaganda tour at the behest of Netanyahu and the alleged ambassador to Israel, not the ambassador from Israel, Mike Huckabee.
00:18:06.160I think Whitcoff is doing his best, is still an able envoy for the president of the United States to this point,
00:18:14.280but Netanyahu is just moving quicker than almost anyone.
00:19:49.560I don't think a two-state solution can work.
00:19:51.440But if that looks like the wave of where things are going, he has to take care of the military capability of the Muslim Brotherhood franchisees, Hamas, before that happens.
00:20:04.620But given the fact that you've worn down your own troops, there's morale issues, you've got, I don't know,
00:20:10.820a significant part of the population that is protesting over the weekend, just wants to bring this thing to a close.
00:20:15.780I mean, how do you garner the support militarily now to go and still complete what should be the hardest part of it?
00:20:23.400And that is taking the hardest fighters in Gaza, the Hamas fighters that are left, those brigades are left.
00:20:31.540How do you go about now and trying to garner international support and even support with the United States to go get that done?
00:20:38.300I think Dan Yahu has a very limited audience.
00:20:40.740He just wants President Trump's approval, and he just wants the support of the dwindling number of basically older Republicans who support this carnage.
00:20:51.640I think he wants to maintain the support of the Murdoch empire, and I think he is thinking a day at a time, and he is about Netanyahu.
00:21:01.400He is about the short-term interest of himself and his cabinet, and he is about surviving to live another day.
00:21:07.500I think when we write the history of Israel and the history of Netanyahu, it may be written that Netanyahu is the greatest enemy of the Israeli people.
00:21:17.980The greatest accomplishment President Trump had in the region, and I was a huge advocate for moving the embassy to Jerusalem, which I think had to be done.
00:21:32.100But the biggest triumph that we had was the Abraham Accords.
00:21:35.780Now, particularly, let's leave Qatar because I've got obviously huge problems with Qatar and people that embrace Qatar because I still think they financed the Muslim Brotherhood.
00:21:42.880And there's an investigation Netanyahu today fired – he and his cabinet fired the prosecutor that's principally looking into how to Qatar get into business with certain members of Netanyahu's people close to him.
00:21:58.280But UAE, particularly in the Saudis, have been really the drivers or some of the people at the front line of the Abraham Accords.
00:22:07.240In this situation, they're clearly – and kind of consensus President Trump tried to build there to bring peace.
00:22:15.480They are some of the biggest vocal people saying you can't continue this military operation the way you're intending to do it, and you've got a humanitarian crisis.
00:22:25.080How do you think – because you've just come back from the region.
00:22:28.120How do you think the region plays this?
00:22:29.600Because particularly now President Trump, he just went and had this incredible tour in May.
00:22:35.280It seems like it was 10 years ago, but it was just 10 weeks ago in the region.
00:22:39.900How do you think the region appeals to him to get some sort of plan here where we can actually stand this thing down?
00:22:48.100Yeah, I mean I think the region is a little demotivated to sum up a massive society and civilization.
00:22:54.560It seems a little demotivated, you know, that solutions are at hand.
00:23:00.720A lot of ink has been spilled about a potential era of Israeli hegemony in the Middle East.
00:23:07.420That's not the sense I got when I was over there.
00:23:09.680I mean, one of my sources, I think the most apt comparison I got is that Israel is effectively an Air Force base.
00:23:17.140They can torment anybody, they can project militarily, they can call in favors in Washington, but they are as hated as ever.
00:23:25.480They are as a pariah as ever, and their society is as unstable as ever.
00:23:32.080And, you know, you keep referencing the Muslim Brotherhood quotient.
00:23:36.320And, yes, I think Hamas is, you know, definitely the, basically, historically the Palestine chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood.
00:23:44.300But the reality here is that there is a structural story here, is that Netanyahu empowered these guys.
00:23:50.980He didn't want a reasonable or more moderate wing of the Palestinian nation to have representation because they would be too sympathetic to Western audiences.
00:24:04.680Yes, Hamas controls Gaza, but public sentiment is turning against this war in droves, including in the Republican Party, despite Hamas's leadership of Gaza.
00:24:15.860That is what's going on in a nutshell.
00:24:19.640And so Netanyahu is only getting more desperate by the month, by the week, to hold attention and get maximum concessions now because he knows time is nearly up.
00:24:29.440Well, even more than the sentiment changing in the Republican Party and particularly people who supported Israel, the sentiment is changing in Israel.
00:24:37.820I mean, before they've always had an anti-Netanyahu group.
00:24:40.260We would say it's the same people that came after President Trump.
00:24:42.920But that's now getting much broader in Israeli society as a lot of people saying, hey, we're turning into a Jewish Pakistan and that can't happen.
00:24:51.300But the sentiment inside the country is changing rapidly.
00:25:18.900You know, the kind of tech money, the sort of politically ambiguous center left, you know, Israeli that lives in Tel Aviv, not Netanyahu's voters.
00:25:26.380These people are going to wave into the EU.
00:25:28.600They're going to found tech companies in Portugal, Greece, southern Italy and get out of there, go to a less political and less dangerous place for Jews.
00:25:39.320And so, you know, the long term here is about Netanyahu.
00:25:45.840And Netanyahu is somebody who's not going to be on the scene in 30 years.
00:25:49.520And he is not being a great steward of his country's national interest.
00:25:53.600The only reason I care is because the U.S. is asked to endlessly care about Israeli national interest.
00:25:59.380And I would prefer if it was just totally separate.
00:26:19.420And you can also go to at C-U-R-T-M-I-L-L-S on X and other platforms.
00:26:24.360The next 48 to 72 hours is going to be very, very, very important about what's going to happen in Israel.
00:26:35.860Netanyahu and his cabinet put out the word that they're going to come forward with a plan to the president of the United States, to Witkoff and to others about Occupy Gaza.
00:27:12.340This July, there is a global summit of BRICS nations in Rio de Janeiro, the block of emerging superpowers, including China, Russia, India, and Persia, are meeting with the goal of displacing the United States dollar as the global currency.
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00:27:41.160While this transition won't not happen overnight, but trust me, it's going to start in Rio.
00:27:48.120The Rio reset in July marks a pivotal moment when BRICS objectives move decisively from a theoretical possibility towards an inevitable reality.
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00:32:05.320Pam Bondi, the Attorney General of the United States, reportedly asking grand jury to consider criminal indictments in Obama-Clinton treasonous conspiracy case.
00:32:13.740President Trump has said it's the biggest scandal in the history of the nation.
00:40:18.800Real quick, I mean, the main thing about the conference was what was not there, which was really America's first policies coming into the Arctic.
00:40:28.160So what we had was a lot of the old guard, and we had a lot of people from around Europe coming to listen to basically a rehashing of the old policies.
00:40:40.140It was important because what was not said, which is really that President Trump has launched the U.S. back into a leadership position in the Arctic.
00:40:48.960But what's essential right now is that we follow through below President Trump with the execution here.
00:40:55.660So just thinking about this week, you know, I'm coming to you now from Colorado Springs, right across from the Air Force Academy.
00:41:03.680And to recall General Billy Mitchell, who is one of the founders of the Air Force, he says in 1935 to Congress, I believe that in the future, whoever holds Alaska will hold the world.
00:41:18.440I think it's the most strategic place in the world.
00:41:21.020Well, he couldn't have been more prescient.
00:41:23.240And let's fast forward to the current day.
00:41:26.260You know, what you have now is what I would tell you is America's first island chain, the Aleutians, which is essentially unprotected here.
00:41:36.560And it's time for us to begin to execute on our hemispheric defense.
00:41:50.760Senator Dan Sullivan's leading an effort, which I am 100 percent behind, to reopen ADAC Air Force Base, ADAC Naval Air Station in the Aleutians.
00:42:01.920Now, keep in mind, this is this is a thousand miles west of of Anchorage.
00:42:07.840These are vast spaces, and this is sitting right at the point where you're going to have the great circle traveling from from China to the U.S., as well as the intersection of what is the Northern Sea Route coming down eventually even the transpolar route.
00:42:27.420This is where these areas meet in the middle of America's Arctic.
00:43:08.800If we haven't learned from the past, it's time for us to go back in the history books.
00:43:12.820Don't want to get President Trump upset.
00:43:14.800But we did the same thing in Greenland.
00:43:16.500You know, we sold the best base we had in Greenland, not, you know, not for a dollar like we got for the Panama Canal, but for 17 cents for one Danish kroner back in 1992.
00:43:30.520And I'm I'm talking about what was called Sandi Kangalusirak, which was really the best where anybody had to land in Greenland until November last year when they opened up the new Air Force Base.
00:43:44.160So it's time for us to get on the field.
00:43:46.480We don't have an American ambassador for the Arctic.
00:43:49.960We haven't gotten Ken Howery approved, who's our incoming ambassador for Denmark.
00:43:54.760We're missing assistant secretaries for West Ham for the oceans.
00:43:58.860We don't have an ambassador for Iceland.
00:44:01.860Of course, we don't have an ambassador for Russia.
00:44:04.400Again, talking about the effects of this carryover for the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax, we don't have our America first Russia experts on the field.
00:49:48.940You know, it's sort of like having a hotel that just keeps giving reservations out to everybody and doesn't pay any attention to who's coming in and who's leaving.
00:49:56.300And, you know, the sentencing, you know, the judges should get on board that, like, we don't need to send people to prison for these 10, 15, 20 years.
00:50:07.140I mean, it doesn't take long to really learn a lesson.
00:50:09.420You know, a few years, go to some sort of home confinement and then call it a day.
00:50:13.680But you don't really need to send people and just break, you know, totally break down, you know, their own family life, their community and everything by sending people to prison.
00:50:23.720That applies to white, black, Hispanic.
00:50:27.760Prison does very little to, like, improve somebody after a short period of time.
00:50:32.560No, and for the nonviolent criminals, particularly some of these nonviolent young men that are in prison, you see, you meet them, and these prisons are very small, very tiny, very old, and they're in there for 10, 15, 20 years.
00:50:46.200You just don't, for nonviolent crimes.
00:50:47.840After, like you said, after a couple of years, I think they get it.
00:50:51.100I think they understand what the issues are.
00:50:53.720Walt, you're doing an amazing job at Forbes.
00:50:56.940You're writing this out better than anybody.
00:50:58.580Where do people go on your social media, and where do they get all your writings at Forbes magazine, sir?
00:52:02.240We must deconstruct the administrative state, and the first way to do that is to adjudicate this horrible, horrible crime against President Trump.
00:52:09.540We'll be back at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time tomorrow morning when you will be in the war room.
00:52:15.240According to the Department of Energy, blackouts could increase by 10,000 percent over the next few years.
00:52:25.420It's because of massive energy demand from artificial intelligence data centers.
00:52:30.120We talk about that all the time here in the war room.
00:52:35.040It just cannot keep up with that demand.
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