In this episode, Professor David Betts returns to the War Room to discuss his thesis that the UK and US are heading towards civil war. He uses the analogy of the Troubles in Northern Ireland to make the point that civil war in the UK could be similar to what happened there in the 60s and 70s.
00:01:43.000And as an expert in war in the modern world, he's certainly someone who knows what those signs would be.
00:01:50.000And he's had a couple of articles as well in the peer-reviewed journal Military Strategy magazine,
00:01:56.000which we'll be distributing out on social media.
00:02:00.000Professor Betts, thanks for coming back on the show.
00:02:03.000Now, you said recently that you think in the UK we might be seeing something like Belfast during the troubles,
00:02:13.000the situation for our American audience, the historic troubles between Protestants and Catholics,
00:02:21.000the sectarian problems there, which were horrific, not only for the Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic, and also for the UK.
00:02:30.000And violence, I think, that most people will be familiar with, even if they're not particular au fait with the granular details of what happened in the 60s and 70s, 80s in the UK.
00:02:43.000And you've also said that we could be potentially seeing a situation.
00:02:47.000Now, this would be more familiar to an American audience.
00:02:57.000And you've suggested that largely urban areas would be seeing people essentially fortifying their neighbourhood for protection.
00:03:08.000Those are very provocative and interesting statements, and I very much agree with them.
00:03:15.000But it's unusual to hear, to see a British academic suggesting these things out loud.
00:03:22.000Could we start off, could you describe in a little more detail what you meant with that comparison?
00:03:29.000Okay, so I imagine there will be two vectors of the civil conflict, which I imagine.
00:03:39.000One is essentially between what in the current British lexicon is referred to usually as the kind of anywheres versus somewheres.
00:03:48.000These are essentially elite versus street or mob versus blob.
00:03:55.000You have essentially one vector of the conflict, which has the nature of a peasant rebellion in which the mass of the population, which feels that it has been betrayed by its own elite,
00:04:11.000seeks to punish that elite and to bring it back into line with what it thinks is the kind of traditional rules of the game.
00:04:26.000That is what I mean when I invoked the image of the Northern Ireland troubles,
00:04:32.000which is to say a kind of conflict which is characterised by chronic low-grade violence, assassinations, kidnappings, demonstrative beatings, things like that.
00:04:48.000The other vector of the conflict is intertribal, and that is essentially between the native population,
00:04:55.000which is rapidly coming into a sense of appreciation of itself as a political community in line with the rules of identity politics like every other community.
00:05:14.000And it's a conflict with more recent arrivals in the country, so with the non-native population, which is increasingly concentrated in enclaves.
00:05:31.000So you have basically these two vectors.
00:05:35.000One you might imagine being vertical between the mass of the population and its elite,
00:05:44.000and one being horizontal between two elements of the existing population that are essentially mutually incompatible.
00:06:00.000I don't want to put words into your mouth, but suggesting looking at the vertical vector first,
00:06:10.000that might indicate I would suggest a movement, and I've said this on the show before,
00:06:17.000that I think the UK is heading more towards revolution,
00:06:21.000whereas the United States, I think, potentially would be moving more towards civil war.
00:06:27.000But I think the signs are there in both countries for both phenomena.
00:06:32.000But is it fair to characterise or to synthesise what you're saying by the vertical vector as being a sign that could lead towards revolution,
00:06:43.000whereas the horizontal vector is a phenomenon that would indicate civil war?
00:07:44.000What it is is likely to be a series of outrages which are designed to bring the elite back into heel,
00:07:55.000to bring the elite back into a situation where they are performing their end of the social contract.
00:08:01.000And at present, there is a strong feeling, it must be said throughout the Western world,
00:08:09.000this isn't specifically a UK problem or an American problem, but it's very typical throughout most Western countries,
00:08:17.000primarily motivated through migration policy, but other things, deindustrialisation, over-financialisation,
00:08:26.000other things which have significantly affected the mass while enriching the elite.
00:08:33.000So, I think the difference in the United States to me is that in the United States you have in the figure of President Trump
00:08:46.000someone who is genuinely serving what he understands to be the national interest.
00:08:52.000He does wish to preserve the United States as a historical, political, cultural entity,
00:08:58.000whereas that's very questionable with respect to European elites.
00:09:02.000It's hard to point to the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as someone who really has any kind of strong affection for the country which he rules.
00:09:14.000He's a person who I think is almost quintessentially post-nationalist in his orientation.
00:09:24.000So, that changes the dynamic considerably.
00:09:28.000Rightly or wrongly, I think that there are multiple masses of angry people in the United States,
00:09:37.000but one fraction of that mass considers that the person in the White House is on their side.
00:09:43.000Whereas in the UK, in France, in Germany, and in other places, there isn't that sense that there is an elite fraction,
00:10:00.000which is in fact on the side of the somewheres people who are rooted in their place and wish to survive as cohesive national entities.
00:10:11.000And that's, I think, quite a big difference between the two situations.
00:10:21.000I think you put that pretty elegantly.
00:10:25.000And one of the problems with the UK, as you're suggesting, is that whereas in America,
00:10:29.000even if the social situation in America is pretty evenly split down the middle, one half believes that the guy in charge is standing firmly in their corner.
00:10:41.000In the UK, as you correctly point out, no one particularly, no one thinks that on either side of the political spectrum about Keir Starmer.
00:10:51.000But I would also say that no one thinks that about any recent run of leaders of the Tory party as well.
00:10:58.000And that's the particular issue I see that concerns me about the UK is that we have what's called the uni party.
00:11:05.000You know, the colour might change, but the policies are broadly identical, one with another.
00:11:11.000That said, it is interesting to see just how bad the present Labour government is.
00:11:20.000You know, you get an idea of that by the fact that the government is trying to postpone local government elections in over 30 councils, which is a huge...
00:11:31.000There's no good faith argument about this.
00:11:34.000This is Keir Starmer trying to avoid what will be a very dangerously political result for him and his future credibility.
00:11:43.000It's simply that, and everyone knows that.
00:11:48.000And it is an illustration of how out of touch the Labour Party is that is doing these things.
00:11:54.000It's introducing measures to overturn 800 years worth of jurisprudential progress with the jury trials in certain cases,
00:12:08.000which is absolutely astonishing if you think about that act of parliamentary positivism.
00:12:13.000And it's an illustration of how out of touch, you know, the Labour Party, you know, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, Rachel Rees,
00:12:21.000they lied to the Parliament and to the country over the recent budget to the degree of debt that the nation is in order to do an absolute grab on people's wealth.
00:12:32.000It's an illustration of how out of touch that the Labour Party is, that the Tory party isn't making any inroads.
00:12:39.000Because however bad the Labour Party is, people have this understanding on the inside that the Tories, if they were in control, would be just as bad.
00:12:47.000And that's a very dangerous situation.
00:12:49.000And I don't know, I can't remember the last time in my lifetime I've seen a government so unpopular where the opposition has failed to pick up.
00:12:58.000Now, I'm going to ask you about Nigel Farage in a moment because that is the elephant in the living room in terms of my questioning for you this evening.
00:13:07.000But before we have a very quick shout out to one of our sponsors, I do want to ask you about the three sides.
00:13:17.000You know what, I'm going to do the shout out first. I do want to ask you about the three sides that you said that will emerge in the UK, which is basically a Muslim faction in urban enclaves, a white Caucasian faction that regards the government as illegitimate and captured by the elites.
00:13:40.000And then what will be the leftover remnants of the British state.
00:13:46.000I'm going to ask you how those dynamics might play out in just a moment.
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00:15:09.000Tell me a bit if you wouldn't mind in your own words about how this centrifugal social forces in the UK will splinter British society into these three factions that you've indicated.
00:15:25.000The Islamic faction, the white Caucasian faction, and then the faction that's loyal to the state and its clients.
00:15:36.000Okay, so we have elite and street and the street being split into native population and recent migrants.
00:15:59.000It's not really hard to detect them at all.
00:16:02.000You can observe it very simply by walking around certain cities in the UK, certain neighborhoods, in fact, in the UK.
00:16:16.000One of the more important phenomenon that has occurred in the last year, the arising of organic grassroots raise the flag movements, which are demarcating neighborhoods throughout the country in a very obvious way, which is highly typical of societies that are in a proto insurgent situation.
00:16:45.000With respect to the division between elite and mass, I think that's pretty apparent.
00:16:54.000And just depending on how you look at it, I mean, it's apparent in the way that people discuss national politics.
00:17:03.000The frequency with which people invoke the idea of elite betrayal.
00:17:09.000The frequency with which you see political commentary, which is neither left nor right, actually.
00:17:16.000This is across the political spectrum, where people talk about broken Britain, not as a thesis statement, but as a premise that is just widely assumed to be true, that the country is broken in a range of very obvious manners.
00:17:39.000So, but I suppose for myself, the one that is most measurable and kind of has the most scholarly respectability, I guess, because it's been consistently measured, is what polling tells us about levels of trust and about people's sense of specifically in their trust in government and trust in political officials.
00:18:07.000So, there is in the UK something called British social attitudes survey.
00:18:17.000It asks the same questions consistently.
00:18:19.000And that from the perspective of someone who is measuring the health and cohesiveness of a given society is a highly alarming document.
00:18:33.000It's like looking at an EKG where the line is descending towards zero very, very deliberately.
00:18:48.000So, currently, just about 9% of people in the country profess to believe politicians are honest and work in the national interest.
00:19:04.000There are other even more alarming indicators.
00:19:09.000Something like 60%, roughly 60% of Britons between the ages of 18 and 34 now agree with the statement that some form of violence is permissible to achieve social change.
00:19:26.00017% think actual physical violence is okay to do that.
00:19:34.000That's not a healthy sign by any measure.
00:19:39.000So, these fissures that I talk about are – academics can argue about all kinds of things and will debate the nuances of things.
00:19:54.260But to suggest that this is a highly fractured society and that there are signs of it quite literally visible to any person with eyesight as you move across the urban landscape of the country is really not controversial.
00:20:17.260Of course, what has brought much of this into prominence and just very much excited people is the continuing revelations around the industrial scale raping of primarily white working class girls by Pakistani community-based
00:20:44.260multi-generational national sexual torture networks that are moving girls around.
00:20:55.260And if you need some kind of illustration of a fractionated society, one in which you can't trust that your neighbour is not going to prey on your children is a pretty strong one.
00:21:12.260So, let me ask you this, Professor Bates, because I mentioned it earlier and it's going to be of interest to the war room posse.
00:21:22.260I see the British political system like – because very much of the reasons that you said in your own words – like a pressure cooker.
00:21:35.260And the one possibility on the horizon that might actually release that pressure out would be the election basically from one parliament to the next – I'm not sure when that's ever happened before – of Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
00:21:54.260Do you think if that were to happen at the next election, whenever that election will be, that would significantly reduce the civil war stroke revolution tensions in the UK?
00:22:14.260Yeah, I do want to stress that I'm really not making a party political point here, or I'm not trying to.
00:22:24.260That's not – most of what I'm talking about.
00:22:26.260In fact, all I'm talking about are structural issues.
00:22:31.260I'm not, you know, trying to – I'm not trying to be that sort of pundit.
00:22:40.260And your earlier remarks about the uniparty are entirely accurate, and people understand that to be the case, which is what is fueling this – I think there's the fundamental thing that is fueling this pressure cooker you talk about.
00:23:04.420Because once people have fully internalized that voting doesn't matter, then that is an expression of a complete – basically a complete lack of confidence in the legitimacy of the existing system.
00:23:22.420It is a complete lack of confidence in the ability of politics to solve collective action problems in that society.
00:23:33.420And it's really hard to roll back from that.
00:23:36.420And to the point of your specific question now about reform, I have to say I'm not terribly optimistic on this front.
00:23:45.420And reform, as currently, just doesn't look to me to possess the sense of urgency, the – to possess the – the desire to conduct this sort of radical changes to the society, which would be implied by a reasonable estimate –
00:24:13.420apprehension of the problems which we face.
00:24:18.420And moreover, even if we get to the next election –
00:24:21.420Professor Betts, let me just clarify that.
00:24:25.060You think that these forces are in the UK are so already entrenched and the momentum is there that not even an eventual hypothetical reform government would be able to stop the civil war in the UK that you see –
00:24:45.420that you hypothesize as being on the horizon.
00:25:07.420And that's – that – the bottom line is the political system is not able to cure itself.
00:25:19.420That's – that's – that is pretty serious.
00:25:23.420I just want to share with the War Room audience some statistics and some facts and some contributions that support very much Professor Betts' thesis.
00:25:37.420A recent YouGov poll last year suggests found that 33% of British adults believed a civil war would occur in the next decade.
00:25:49.420And Lisa Nandy, who is the UK's Culture Secretary, said that the situation, the public disaffection was so bad that she thought the whole of the north of England could go up in flames.
00:26:02.420So here are – here are sort of contributions that very much support your thesis, Professor Betts.
00:26:53.420Professor Betts, come back on the show soon and share your latest analyses with us at any time.
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00:32:34.420So it doesn't matter how illegally you came into the country.
00:32:38.420If you were there for five minutes, five months before that date, if you were in by the 31st and had been there for five months before then, then you will be eligible for those residence and work permits.
00:32:54.420And not only that, the moment you apply for those residency permits, any deportation proceedings are immediately halted.
00:33:05.420And not only that, but once you get those residency permits, you'll then be able to travel anywhere in the European Union on those documents.
00:33:15.420Of course, technically you would only be allowed to stay in another EU country for three months before returning.
00:33:23.420But if you entered into Spain illegally and that's not a problem for you, then going to another EU country and staying there illegally isn't going to be a problem for you either.
00:33:33.420That is what the current Spanish government is doing and I think it's an absolute betrayal of the Spanish people.
00:33:41.420Gonzalo, thanks for coming back on the show.
00:33:44.420Why don't you tell us, start off with explaining to us what the procedure is here?
00:33:51.420Because there's so much to learn about how these left-wing socialist governments operate.
00:33:56.420This isn't of being done by a vote in parliament with debate and accountability.
00:35:35.420Not immediately, but most part of these illegal immigrants, they come from South America.
00:35:40.420And as I told in other programs before when you invite me, in Spain, the Spanish constitution, people that they come from territories that used to be part of the Spanish Empire, they can get their citizenship rate very fast in less than three years.
00:35:55.420So, these people that now they are being legalized, in three years probably they will be able to be voting.
00:36:01.420And, of course, they will vote always parties that they help them to bring all the families to get all the social help so they will not vote right-wing, of course.
00:36:09.420So, that's why they are really doing this very fast for having these votes, seeing that young people, they are willing to vote, many of them more conservative, comparing with their parents, for example.
00:36:24.420Tell me something about the anger in Spain right now.
00:36:30.420Well, you know what that happened in Spain is simply on the maneuver to regularize half a million people.
00:36:34.420But the process and the way that it's being done.
00:36:40.420down in Spain? Well, the situation is very, very bad. People are totally divided in two blocks.
00:36:48.180I think like in America is happening. And in the last month, it was the situation is getting worse.
00:36:54.100There was a huge train accident where almost 50 people died. And of course, the government
00:37:01.300is trying to avoid any kind of responsibility. People see that things don't work in Spain
00:37:05.860anymore, that everything is a problem. The infrastructure is not being repaired in the
00:37:12.340trains or in roads. And then while in Spain, we don't repair our own infrastructure, we are giving,
00:37:19.940for example, 500 million euros to Morocco for the subway, I think in Rabat. And this is ridiculous.
00:37:27.860We are giving money away to many third world countries, while Spain is not a really rich
00:37:32.340country. We have a huge debt and all the economic growth of Spain is based on this debt. So it's
00:37:38.580not true that Spain is doing good. Today, they were saying that Spain will grow the GDP next year,
00:37:45.7002.1%, but it's totally false because it's based on debt. Let me ask you this. People are seeing this
00:37:56.900regularization, if I can use the word regularization of 500,000 people, and they're seeing it being done
00:38:04.820via royal decree and not through a straight-up honest vote in parliament. Are there any people saying in
00:38:14.100Spain, if this is how democracy works, then democracy has failed? What I mean to say is this kind of
00:38:22.660maneuver in Spain putting the idea of democracy itself in danger?
00:38:31.780Yes, there is this political party Vox. We talked about them already. They are close to the views of
00:38:40.420Donald Trump in a way. They are conservative, liberal people. And they are saying, of course, that all the left is
00:38:46.820always talking about democracy, talking about the constitution, talking about how we need to work
00:38:53.380together for better Spain, democracy, democracy, democracy. But when they want, they don't use
00:38:58.820democracy so much. They use what they, they pact with the separatists and they get all the laws they want
00:39:05.620into done. So they do it like this, straight with a royal decree. They don't need to go to the parliament.
00:39:11.780What I was, what I specifically, yeah, what I was specifically looking at or looking for is the
00:39:21.940idea that the whole concept of democracy in Spain might be so discredited if this is the sort of
00:39:29.780thing that emerges out of it. And people will say, look, if this is democracy, I don't want it. You
00:39:34.820know, it's better under Franco. That's what I'm, and are there people in Spain looking at what's going on
00:39:40.980at the moment and sort of rejecting it privately in conversations? I'm not saying that they're going
00:39:46.660out with placards or protesting, but are there people saying, looking at this manoeuvre and saying,
00:39:51.460if this is democracy, I don't want it. It's failed. You are totally right. I was talking about
00:39:57.780political parties. Of course, one of them is criticizing the system because they are part of the system.
00:40:02.660But people, of course, they are tired. The amount of taxes we pay in Spain for everything,
00:40:08.420people having a small business, they have to pay up to 50, 60% of taxes. And they see how it works.
00:40:14.740They see all this money is going for immigrants. All this money is going for NGOs, where the friends
00:40:19.460of the people in the government, they are getting paid with our taxes, a lot of money. And all this
00:40:24.660money is going for people that they are not willing to work. And most of them, they are immigrants.
00:40:28.820So, of course, people, they say this is not a democracy. Of course, with Franco,
00:40:32.100we're living better because with Franco, yes, somebody working in a restaurant,
00:40:36.100a waiter who could afford to buy a house in 10 years, even a second house at the coast on the
00:40:41.780beach. And now they see that with a normal salary, you cannot even pay the rent of one room in Madrid
00:40:47.060or Barcelona. So, yes, people, they start to see that all this democracy is only for the privileged
00:40:52.900people. It's only for the rich people.
00:40:54.420Okay. Now, I don't want to put words into your mouth, but I do want to know because you're there
00:41:00.100on the ground and you have a political party which is extremely responsive to the public anger. So,
00:41:06.900I do want to be precise in my own mind here about this. So, let me just ask you this one more time
00:41:15.220before I just read some publicity. Is part of your argument, therefore, is part of the argument
00:41:26.180of national democracy, democracy national, right? It's part of your argument to the government,
00:41:33.380to your socialist government. Do not go through and give permanent papers to 500,000
00:41:43.060illegal third world invaders. Because I don't do it by royal decree either. Because if you proceed
00:41:51.460with this, in addition to all the negative aspects that we're going to have on society,
00:41:57.220I'm going to cover those after the break in terms of crime and what have you. In addition to all these
00:42:01.940negative things that are going to come out of this, you will also put the whole apparatus of democracy
00:42:06.900in danger. Is that right? Is that right? You are totally right. The thing is that they use,
00:42:14.900as I said, the word democracy for what they want. And once they use the rules, the regular basis of
00:42:23.380the of what the constitution, the Spanish constitution says, when they want these rules, don't apply for them
00:42:29.940because they don't, they cannot get what they want. They, they change. They find their way always to do
00:42:35.380what they want. And this is what people perceive. If people, normal people that the regular people
00:42:39.700that they don't know about law, they don't, they, there are people that they don't, they don't know so
00:42:43.780much about politics, but they, they have the feeling of what is happening. It's like, they can do always
00:42:48.260what they want. They can always change the law. If there is, there is a politician that is corrupt,
00:42:53.060they always find their way also to escape. So the same with immigrants, they always find their way to do
00:42:57.780something that is beneficial for them. Not only in Spain, Gonzalo, this is, this is what we're
00:43:05.780seeing right across the West. Okay. Stay with us. We'll be back with Gonzalo Martin into 60 seconds,
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00:45:20.660Bannon. Back with Gonzalo Martin. Okay, so Gonzalo, here's what I want to ask you. And I've got some
00:45:30.020statistics here about the present situation in Spain. Some 64% of those arrested for crimes in the Basque
00:45:40.420region were foreigners including 68% for sexual assault and robbery suspects.
00:45:49.220And that's despite migrants making up 14% of the Basque population. Whereas a recent report
00:46:00.580entitled Demography of Crime in Spain found that foreigners who make up 31% of Spain's prison
00:46:09.940population commit per capita 500% more rapes and 414% more murders than Spanish.
00:46:19.940citizens. Those are absolutely horrific statistics coming out there. And yet the government is
00:46:26.820persisting with regularizing half a million invaders that will have the only consequence
00:46:36.420of sending out the signal to everyone in Africa who wants to come in, who hasn't thought about it,
00:46:42.420come in now, because they're doing amnesis. They've just done one, they'll do another one.
00:46:47.380This will actually exacerbate the problem. And it's not only a problem that confronts Spain,
00:46:52.100because once they have these residency permits, they'll then be able to travel right across the
00:46:55.940European Union. Tell me something about the relationships you have with other European
00:47:01.620political parties in terms of the coordination and pressure that is being put on the Spanish
00:47:07.860government not to go through with this measure. Well, we are members of the Alliance for Peace and Freedom
00:47:15.540with other political parties from other European parties like Forza Nova from Italy,
00:47:22.020the French nationalists in France, the high mountain Germany, many, many people that we are facing the
00:47:28.820same problems because this invasion is not only the invasion of Spain, it's the invasion of Europe.
00:47:33.540Spain is the gate of the entrance of Europe. Once they are in Spain, they can go to any other country.
00:47:39.460They are, for example, in Poland now, there are many Colombian people making problems. And this is what
00:47:45.700we get with this, with the Spanish constitution, allowing all these people to settle in Spain. And
00:47:50.660after a few years, they get the Spanish citizenship, they can move all around. So all the problems that we
00:47:57.460are facing in Spain, more or less, they are the same we are facing in the rest of Europe. And of course,
00:48:01.700we need to coordinate. And we organize protests. When there were some of our members, there were
00:48:09.780deputies in the European Parliament, we were holding meetings in the European Parliament, protests in
00:48:14.900front of the European Parliament in Brussels. Of course, this is not about Spain. This is about Europe.
00:48:19.860This is about the West. We are about to fall. We are about to fall in all this demographic invasion
00:48:26.260and we are being replaced. And this is not anymore about any kind of conspiracy theory.
00:48:31.540This is reality. This is statistics. And what you said about crime in Spain, you have to add that
00:48:37.300probably we have already six million immigrants with the Spanish citizenship in Spain. So adding to
00:48:43.060these people that this 40% of crime rate or rape or whatever, we have to add the rest of the immigrants
00:48:51.060that they have a Spanish passport and they escape from the statistics. And in the statistics,
00:48:56.020they appear as being Spanish and they are not. And the same is happening in France, for example,
00:49:00.500or in Germany. Many of the people, many of these statistics, they are not real because we have
00:49:06.020already millions and millions of non-European with the Spanish with European citizenship. And then they