Stephen K. Bambach and Ben Harnwells discuss the latest in the Iran situation, including the latest from the Wall Street Journal, and why they think it s unlikely that a deal can be struck between the United States and Iran.
00:00:38.780I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience.
00:00:44.200Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose?
00:00:48.000If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved.
00:00:54.260War Room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Banff.
00:00:58.240It's Friday, 20 February, in the year of our Lord, 2026.
00:01:04.220So every Friday at this time, I normally come off the 5 o'clock show and toss to Rome to our anchor, Ben Harnwell, who runs international for us, our international bureau.
00:01:16.540Today, we're doing a little differently.
00:01:29.360Because what was leaked to the Wall Street Journal, and they have very strong access to the White House, was when I read it, it was, I think, kind of Trumpy.
00:01:38.660And President Trump did not want to do a regime change war on the 12-day war.
00:01:44.640He totally obliterated the nuclear weapons program, what he said.
00:01:49.540In Venezuela, had a very sophisticated JSOC exercise, but it was to take out Maduro and the wife, leave the rest of the regime there, work some deal out, and see if they can't run it by themselves.
00:02:04.660He was going to, you know, do some sort of kinetic activity and see if he couldn't get the Ayatollah and the Mullahs and their advisors to reach his goal.
00:02:13.780Do you think that that is a strategy that works, sir?
00:02:20.240And I think part of the reason why it won't work is because I think the Israelis have convinced Trump that Iran is much weaker than it actually is.
00:02:28.460Iran undoubtedly is weaker than it was two years ago.
00:02:32.420But they have essentially convinced him that you can do these incremental attacks and the Iranians won't respond.
00:02:38.340Reality is the Iranians have their backs against the wall.
00:02:41.300They've seen no way out of this, but any incremental thing that they don't respond to eventually will weaken them so much that they will lose anyways.
00:02:49.920And once they have no defenses, the Israelis are going to go and blow that place up.
00:02:54.860That's exactly what the Israelis did in Syria as soon as Assad fled the country.
00:02:59.180They just went in and bombed everything.
00:03:00.860So their best shot, paradoxically, is actually to strike back and strike back hard in order to hope that even though they are weaker, the United States has a lower pain tolerance because the population is not behind us.
00:03:15.540And if they inflict significant damage on the U.S. on the ships in the Persian Gulf or whether it is going after oil installations in the region and close the Strait of Hormuz, shoot up oil prices, shoot up inflation in the United States and globally, the calculation is their chance of getting out of this is to actually destroy Trump's presidency before they lose the war.
00:03:37.900So their incentive structure is not to play along and accept being hit incrementally.
00:03:43.340It is actually to escalate fast in that type of a scenario, despite the fact that they clearly are the weaker party.
00:03:49.400The question we have to ask ourselves, how does any of this serve U.S. interests?
00:03:53.760Why do we have to do this in the first place?
00:03:58.820But those negotiations have to be based on a much more realistic understanding of where the Iranians are and where the U.S. are, not the kind of red lines that have been sold to Trump
00:04:07.500by the Israelis who are doing this because they want him to go to war.
00:04:38.140Walk me through a series of deals that could get to where President Trump wants to go.
00:04:45.120If the only red line is no nuclear weapons, there's absolutely a chance of getting a deal because there are plenty of different things that can be done.
00:04:52.040For instance, one of the things that were being floated around in the previous negotiations, which is still on the table, is a consortium in which the enrichment still takes place in Iran.
00:05:01.160But you have several different countries involved in it.
00:05:03.520So the Iranians can't do anything on their own.
00:05:05.500You could even have American inspectors there.
00:05:07.880This, I think, would be a way better deal than what Obama managed to get.
00:05:12.340But it is not acceptable to the Israelis because they don't want to have any deal at all.
00:05:16.520They want to have complete obliteration of everything, including missiles and other things.
00:05:20.380And they're pushing Trump in that direction.
00:05:22.820U.S. interest, however, is in a different place altogether.
00:05:25.740If we can get a deal that not only makes sure that they have no pathway towards a nuclear weapon, which I think is doable, but also opens up a new relationship, you have trade, you have investment, you have other things that would benefit the American middle class and ultimately benefit the Iranian people as well.
00:05:41.860I think that's a much better route to go and precisely the type of things that Trump likes to do.
00:05:46.520The big mistake the Iranians have done, in my view, is that they have refused to talk directly to Trump.
00:05:53.540I think if they were open to that, which they should be and they haven't been, I think there could be a massive de-escalation.
00:06:00.180Both sides could avoid a lose-lose war.
00:06:02.980And both sides could be on a path towards a much, much better future for both of them.
00:06:07.800One of the things President Trump has a saying, if you know him, no games.
00:06:12.420And he hates the concept of being tapped along.
00:06:15.460One of the things I've heard as a feedback is that because, you know, the Persians have a certain way they negotiate.
00:06:20.840And so much of this has now gotten to kind of a formal process where it's really negotiating for the next meeting.
00:06:26.160There's going to come a point in time he's just going to say, you know, I don't want to do this.
00:06:30.120Are Whitcoff and Jared, who are his two guys and done such a great job other places, are they really making progress to get to a deal?
00:06:38.380Or are we just kind of falling into this Persian bureaucratic trap that we're negotiating the next meeting?
00:06:46.680So unfortunately, there is a lot of that nonsense going on about where is the next place?
00:06:51.820How does the shape of the table look like, et cetera?
00:07:25.540Why do we have these things that kind of – you have these intermediaries.
00:07:28.780Why are the Persians not in a direct conversation with President Trump and the dealmakers?
00:07:36.140I think, first of all, they have their own politics.
00:07:39.560And they have elements over there who don't like the idea of direct talks with the United States.
00:07:43.580But at this point, I think, personally, they have to set all of those things aside because this is now about war and peace, those type of considerations.
00:07:53.180You know that a lot of politics are silly and not necessarily very rational.
00:07:56.520But at this point, that kind of stuff needs to be set aside.
00:07:58.900And I really worry that that may be the only de-escalatory card that can be played right now, and they're not playing it.
00:08:07.540Trita, where do people go to get more of your analysis?
00:08:10.800This post you put up this morning, this tweet this morning, I thought did a very logical job of breaking down what had been leaked as one of President Trump's alternatives.
00:08:18.760And you kind of gave a counterargument that, hey, I think this is what will really happen.
00:08:22.340Where do people go to get more of that content?
00:08:23.720You can go to my Twitter, which is tparsi, or you can go to the Quincy Institute's website or our publication platform, which is responsiblestatecraft.org or quincyinst.org.
00:08:37.800Thank you, sir, for taking time on a Friday to explain this to us.
00:09:36.380They don't see eye to eye with the Israelis or the Foundation for Democracies, kind of more of the neocon crowd.
00:09:44.420He talked about this has been leaked in the Wall Street Journal that President Trump was looking at some sort of incremental plan where he could hit, make a couple of bombing runs, and loosen up the Ayatollah to really for more negotiations.
00:09:57.520Trita was saying, look, their backs are to the wall.
00:10:00.260And if they get hit, they're going to strike back.
00:10:03.060And Trita is saying, look, we've got the Persians, the Ayatollah, got to drop this thing.
00:10:07.220They're not going to talk to the Americans directly.
00:10:09.800Of course, they're blaming it on the Israelis.
00:10:11.540The Israelis are obsessed with taking down Tehran.
00:10:15.060What are your thoughts about this entire situation?
00:10:17.260As you've seen the load in, now the air bridge is there, the naval assets are there, and we're getting ready to work up, I think, the air wing for a potential strike.
00:10:26.080And I would assume a major strike would come or be available to the president around the middle of March with the end of Ramadan.
00:10:35.100Sir, what are your thoughts about Trita and what he had to say?
00:10:38.660Oh, I thought it was very insightful, Steve.
00:10:40.860But I think there's problems with limited strikes in Iran.
00:10:45.920Limited attack options are not going to solve the problem that Trump seems if he resorts to the military instrument, right?
00:10:55.900That is only going to be solved by major attack options, right?
00:11:00.980A broader target set, going after the leadership, going after Republican, essentially the military elements of the nuclear program, which might still remain, as well as ballistic and ship missiles and other military targets.
00:11:18.140So a limited attack option has tremendous disadvantages.
00:11:23.460It's not solving or addressing the problem that would be solved, that the military tool solves best.
00:11:31.640So as Matt Boyle has stressed on your program multiple times, diplomacy is still on the table.
00:11:40.980And President Trump, you never box him in, of course.
00:11:44.060You never predict what President Trump is going to do, but limited attack options are, to my mind, are going to be inferior to major attack options against the pillars of the regime.
00:12:16.360So first, a few points of housekeeping.
00:12:19.500And I'll deal with your questions right in order.
00:12:22.080But first, I've got to say a few things.
00:12:23.780We've been given special permission here, and we thank the organizers of this conference for allowing us to do a live stream on the wall, direct from the floor of the conference center.
00:12:34.160Over my shoulder, you can hear a good friend of the wall, Joel Gilbert, currently giving his keynote speech.
00:12:41.300And that's the first thing I have to say.
00:12:42.520The second thing I have to say is that whereas the International Bureau has provided one set of an earphone for the two of us, there's only one microphone, and it's there in Dr. Thayer's ear.
00:12:57.500So if I'm meeting a little close and sort of talking about this, I just want to say on international television, I'm not trying to use the opportunity here to be overly chummy with Dr. Thayer, and I'm not sort of whispering sweet nothings into his ear.
00:13:10.140I'm talking like this because that's the microphone there, and otherwise you won't be hearing me at all.
00:13:16.860I said this conference, the first conference that they've organized of this scope since this movement, Advance, was created about eight years ago.
00:13:25.860In American terms, the nearest thing I think we could use to describe it would be the American MAGA movement.
00:13:32.660It's very much pitched to replace the traditional centre-right political parties, the Liberal Party and the National Party, as those establishment parties have done what centre-right establishment parties are doing around the world, pivoting away from responding to their base.
00:13:49.660And this movement here, movement-led, it's not a political party, has very much moved to occupy that territory.
00:13:56.740It has a couple of huge successes under its belt.
00:14:00.180It was just this brief time, and one of them was winning a referendum a couple of years ago, which was supposed to create a special parliament for Australia's Indigenous.
00:14:09.460When Advance took over the official no campaign to that, I think nine months before the referendum, the polls were indicating that the yes side would win that referendum 70% to 30%.
00:14:22.740These guys took over that campaign, and the referendum was actually won by them on a 60-40 turnover.
00:14:30.280And Steve, the only thing I can know, I can stay off the top of my head, of a similar turnaround, is when you took over the Trump campaign in 2016, 88 days before election campaign,
00:14:41.800when the president was 16 points behind, and in 88 days, that was one of the great examples of a military turnaround in history.
00:14:54.260And the Australians here have, concentrating on similar types of debate strategies, have achieved something of monumental importance to the Australian political and civic life.
00:15:08.860Let me, I want to take your, of what they're trying to replace, I want to take it, Marco Rubio gave this speech last week, of which, you know, it was kind of a sequel to the Warsaw speech of President Trump of August of 2017.
00:15:23.700And it was, I thought it was very good.
00:15:25.700It was interwoven with defense of the Judeo, our Judeo-Christian civilization and the Christian West.
00:15:31.400But I criticized it, I think it will be up on Daily Mail later.
00:15:36.640Not criticized, I made an observation that what's really the operative thing here is the national security memorandum where we talk about civilizational erasure.
00:15:46.540And that's why we're here in Texas, fighting Sharia law.
00:15:50.560And what's obvious is that it just can't be about borders and immigration anymore.
00:16:15.660The center-right are the rhinos of the other nations of the world, have abandoned a defense of the Christian West.
00:16:24.560And that's where we find ourselves in all these parties today where the energy is, is farther to the right and taking a much harder stance.
00:16:32.840Ben Hardwell, we'll start with you, and then I'll go to Dr. Thayer.
00:16:35.220Yeah, I mean, that's absolutely right.
00:16:37.980And it mirrors something that we've been covering, that you and I have been covering, even before the war started, even before the Trump insurgency started in 2015.
00:16:50.300And that is the fact that the center-right political movements right across the world have pretty much been taken over by purely performative apparatus.
00:17:00.300That is, they talk in the language, especially in election times, that we want to hear.
00:17:05.480But the moment they're in power, they're pivoting away from that and push forward with a globalist, programmatic agenda.
00:17:14.280And that is nowhere more evident than on the situation regarding the invasion that is taking place right across the Judeo-Christian West.
00:17:24.800That is the issue which absolutely defines the Christian Democrat betrayal of the base.
00:17:32.560And I'll just give one example to cite that.
00:17:34.860And that was last week, there was the elections in Portugal, the presidential elections in Portugal.
00:17:39.840That came down to a runoff between two candidates, the Chega candidate, which is the far-right candidate, and the socialist candidate.
00:17:48.700And what did the Christian Democrats, the center-right, do in that face-off?
00:17:53.000They said they encouraged all their voters to support the socialists, who in fact won the presidency,
00:17:58.820because they said they couldn't possibly allow Portugal to fall into the hands of the fascists.
00:18:06.580That guy, Vin Torda, who was the Chega candidate, is not a fascist, not a totalitarian, not a white supremacist.
00:18:15.140The only thing that differentiates him from the rest of the political class is his strict position on not allowing Portugal to be subsumed into the expo of an invasion globalist agenda.
00:18:27.640And it's that immigration issue, the invasion issue, which is the iron curtain down the political spectrum that divides the performative uniparty on the one hand,
00:18:39.360and parties such as the movement here represented by Advance, on the other hand, which is responding to the will of the people.
00:18:48.180And that's really, that's the fundamental issue.
00:18:51.520The central-right in Europe, the central-right is basically Christian democracy, which is explicitly, formally, supposedly founded on promoting Catholic social teaching.
00:19:04.800We're not dealing in talking to the German political terms of the 60s, 70s, and 80s.
00:19:10.460The names of the parties remain, but what is actually being provided is very difficult.
00:19:15.520I'll close with this one example, Steve.
00:19:18.960The real invasion, the crisis here in continental Europe hasn't, on the end of the invasion, hasn't particularly taken place under the left, under the centre-left,
00:19:29.080though they are the main beneficiaries of the invasion because it's widening their voter base.
00:19:35.200It's really been taking place under the Christian Democrats.
00:19:38.020And the most clear example of that is the German example with Angela Merkel, who's a former German chancellor under the Christian Democrats, the CDU.
00:19:50.320She's responsible for bringing in a million Muslims into Germany.
00:19:55.260And the consequence of that is that the AFD went from 2.5% 10 years ago to, at a minimum, 25% across the various Länder in Germany.
00:20:09.620So that's an illustration of how the Christian Democrats have betrayed the people, but how the people themselves are responding by creating new political movements, new political parties out of nothing,
00:20:22.220that they can have the confidence to actually respond to their desires when in government.
00:20:28.060Dr. Thayer, your thoughts on the same topic?
00:20:30.360The central problem facing Western democracies, in terms of the health of their democracy, is the legitimation crisis.
00:20:40.340That is, the elites are uniparty, or however you want to describe them.
00:20:48.460They have the same core, and they have the same approach and attitudes, ignoring their base, ignoring their populations.
00:20:56.060And that legitimation crisis has to be resolved, because if it is not resolved, you're going to see the continuation of what we see in Europe, Canada, Britain, and even in Australia.
00:21:12.040That is increasingly authoritarian, formerly democratic, political governments, and political parties.
00:21:20.760So, advance is one of a group, which is fighting far above its weight, in terms of advancing very specific principles, but focusing also on the nuts and bolts of elections.
00:21:34.960So that the people, and populist political parties, are going to not only understand the electoral process in every respect, but be able to actually win elections through very specific targeting of voters.
00:21:53.800So, the legitimation crisis is profound, and it's affecting, of course, all Western democracies, but groups like Advance, and perhaps others, are offering solutions about how a populist right can employ very specific mechanisms to win elections.
00:22:13.960And that's a welcome change from center-right Republican parties, which seem to welcome and embrace losing elections, but giving excellent concessions to people when they lose.
00:22:28.860So, Advance is focusing on actively the nuts and bolts of winning, and therefore, it's an extraordinary group, and there's much to learn from it, Steve, in the States as well as around Western democracies.
00:22:42.440Take a minute or two, Dr. Thayer, one thing that shocked us in our coverage during, Ben will remember this, when we were in pandemic, was how, as bad as England was, and as bad as the United States were, nothing compared to what happened in Australia.
00:22:57.260And I think people were shocked because, you know, we have such a close cultural relationship with Australia.
00:23:02.140People have a certain mindset about what Australia means, and particularly kind of that ruggedness and individuality.
00:23:07.840During the COVID lockdowns, I mean, they were, I think, arguably one of the worst fascist states in the world.
00:23:15.900Take a minute or two, how did that help the rise of Advance or the formation of Advance, just the reaction against not just the socialists, but what the quote-unquote conservative party was doing in Australia as far as lockdowns go?
00:23:29.100Right, Steve, and there was effectively no political resistance to those lockdowns.
00:23:36.160The lockdowns in Australia were so draconian, they were only exceeded by China, right?
00:23:42.820Which shows you how bad the lockdowns were.
00:23:46.380At this conference, we had many veterans of that lockdown experience who suffered, who were persecuted, because of some efforts to instill some sanity into the Australian government.
00:24:00.500And the Australian government's reply, the lesson from the lockdown for patriotic Australians was the government is only a half a step away from being hard, authoritarian.
00:24:15.020And additionally, individuals here see that as a dry run, right, essentially as a dress rehearsal for steps that the Australian government may take in the future.
00:24:29.440So a hard authoritarianism that would rival China in many respects is possible, really, in any Western democracy.
00:24:40.360Australia might be the most acute, or see that most intensively as a result of their experience.
00:24:49.480Sadly, there's nothing to guarantee that a future crisis would not be met with the same reaction.
00:24:56.460No matter what the Australian people think, the Labour government, in conjunction with its allies, might again resort to a very hard authoritarian approach.
00:25:10.000That authoritarian approach is welcomed by the Chinese Communist Party, welcomed and supported by the Chinese Communist Party.
00:25:16.240And the CCP influence in Australia is proud and is doing its utmost to ensure that groups like Advance or Patriotic Australians are not able to have a role in Australia's political life.
00:26:14.320We'll get it all down to you and we'll be back in a moment after a short commercial break.
00:26:18.780We'll get it all down to you and we'll be back in a moment after a short commercial break.
00:26:48.780We'll be back in a moment after a short commercial break.
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00:32:39.080Joe Allen is on the cover of Time magazine with his work on artificial intelligence
00:32:43.160and trying to make sure that there's some at least rudimentary framework of regulation
00:32:48.040and all the work he's been doing going throughout the country for the last two or three years.
00:32:51.480And I can tell you right now, the live audience is so incredibly impressed that you guys are in Australia.
00:32:58.100You've been invited down there to basically carry the war room flag and to make sure that the people in Australia understand that we feel their pain.
00:33:06.340And we are huge supporters of these parties that emerge that are farther right than the centrists, either RINOs, Tories, or center-right parties of Europe.
00:33:17.280These parties that have just sat there have been a controlled opposition.
00:33:20.140So, Ben, why did they invite you, and what were you there to talk about?
00:33:25.840Tell me about the talk and how people responded to it.
00:33:29.600Steve, people are absolutely on fire here.
00:33:32.000There are, as I say, 500 people behind us.
00:33:34.620And you go around talking, get the response of Dr. Thay and I both gave our keynote speeches yesterday.
00:33:40.240The response has been absolutely incredible.
00:33:42.380And, yes, you're right to say that we're both here to preach the gospel of Steve Bannon.
00:33:52.280What I was speaking about yesterday, my talk was on civilizational decline.
00:33:57.660I started off by quoting the magisterial concepts of Arnold Toynbee in his 12-volume set of A Study in History, his fifth volume.
00:34:10.240He actually says, he makes the argument that having studied 21 notable civilizations, 19 of them collapsed, not because of external pressures from outside, but from internal pressures from within.
00:34:24.66019 out of 21 civilizations collapsed because of internal implosion.
00:34:30.020I made the argument, Steve, that, of course, Toynbee, writing in 1939 on the eve of the Second World War, it never predicted the decline of Western civilization.
00:34:42.960And I made the suggestion that the decline of the Judeo-Christian West, the demise of the Judeo-Christian West, isn't due necessarily to external pressure from outside,
00:34:54.600and neither is it due to the internal spiritual malaise from within.
00:35:00.440The decline here in the West, and this is what makes it unique, is due to the betrayal of our political class, of our sociopathic overlords.
00:35:10.360And as I was making an argument yesterday to come back to the point you were talking about with Dr. Thayer before the break about COVID and the lockdowns,
00:35:17.200I got one of my loudest and most sustained applauses of my speech when I said, look, the guys who are running the world, these people are sociopaths.
00:35:26.840And to make that argument, to get the connection between myself and the audience, talking the language that I knew they were going to understand.
00:35:34.640I cited COVID and the lockdowns, and I said, you know, these people, they were lying to us then about the virus, and they're still lying to us today, five years later.
00:35:45.880And it's exactly the same with the vaccine. They were lying to us then about the vaccine, about it being safe and effective, and they're lying to us today.
00:35:53.700And that's their response to these things, just to continue to gaslight.
00:35:56.660And as I say, I was talking to fellow kindred spirits when I said that, and it helps to get across this argument that the people who are running our various countries in the West
00:36:08.120and sort of fundamentally behind the reason of our decline and collapse as a civilisation, even though our culture is, I think, one of the best that mankind has ever produced,
00:36:19.060is because we have elected and we go on electing sociopaths, people who pretend to seek, when they're seeking election, to want to represent us.
00:36:29.600But in fact, they're representing ideologies that are antithetical towards our needs and our interests because they hate us.
00:36:38.900Does Australia, do the Australian people feel as tied together?
00:36:43.320Because you remember, Ben, it's got to be seven years ago, eight years ago,
00:36:47.400I was invited over to France by Front National, or National Rally Now, and I asked Le Pen,
00:36:55.680okay, I'd love to come, I want to come, tell me what I need to talk about.
00:36:59.940And he says, the only thing you need to talk about is tell us that we're not alone,
00:37:04.840that the fight we hear in France is bigger than just France, and it's bigger than just Europe.
00:37:09.920Tell us what's going on in the United States.
00:37:11.580Tell us how the right, we are kindred spirits.
00:37:14.740Is that what, is Australia, do they feel isolated because they are in the Indo-Pacific?
00:37:20.860And a key member, as we'll talk about with Dr. Thayer, the strategic, you know,
00:37:25.080whether it was World War II or whether it's this current global conflict that we're in,
00:37:30.380do they feel isolated from the Judeo-Christian West given the distance?
00:37:34.140No, not at all. They're very enthusiastic. It's a theme that the Australian speakers themselves were repeating at every opportunity.
00:37:44.680Australia is firmly within the Judeo-Christian tradition, within the system of English common law.
00:37:52.160It's very much part of the proud heritage of the Australians who are here at this.
00:37:58.660I get the point you're making about Le Pen five years ago, but I think that that period now,
00:38:06.160you know, largely due to your work and then that you were doing here in continental Europe,
00:38:10.180the idea that these are singular, isolated, populist, nationalist, economic nationalist iterations.
00:38:16.780I think that was probably a security of some years ago.
00:38:22.260Right now, the people are very conscious that they are aware of a national movement.
00:38:28.180Obviously, it's going to be different from country to country.
00:38:31.720And I think Dr. Thayer and I here are simply here to give representation of that fact.
00:38:37.240And of course, if we're talking in terms of a convoy movement of an armada,
00:38:42.160the largest ship in that armada is, of course, MAGA and the American representation.
00:38:48.960And that, I think, gives momentum to everything we're trying to do in continental Europe,
00:38:55.080to everything that the Australians here are trying to do.
00:38:57.720Because America, you know, I say this repeatedly on the show,
00:39:00.200America is the most economically powerful, culturally powerful, militarily powerful nation
00:39:06.280that's ever existed on the face of the planet.
00:39:08.040But if America can absorb within its system the principles delineated by MAGA,
00:39:15.580the independence of the need to put the nation first, the America first context, obviously, in America,
00:39:22.180if that is possible for America, then that is possible for every country around the world.
00:39:27.660And that's very much, I think, why Dr. Thayer and I have been invited here to make that message.
00:39:34.820Not so much because, as I said, to repeat, not so much because five, six, seven years ago,
00:39:39.640there was a slight hesitation, a slight radicalness.
00:39:42.920That's very much been bedded down now.
00:39:45.400But it's more of a case of, I think, sustenance, reinforcement, and momentum, right?