Based Camp - ~0.004% of NYCers Commit 33% of Crime

00:00:00.040 Hello, Simone! I'm excited to be here with you today. Today we're going to be talking about a

00:00:03.300 interesting thread by a personal in-person friend of ours, a guy we quite like,

00:00:08.780 Cremieux. It was on crime statistics and it focused on how very few people commit the

00:00:14.260 vast majority of crimes. Oh, yes. We had talked about this in our episode on police,

00:00:20.860 but I wanted to have a dedicated episode on this particular subject because I find it interesting

00:00:25.100 and I think he provides even more color than we had before. So I am going to go over his

00:00:29.800 statistics and I'm going to give you a chance to react to them and I'm going to provide some

00:00:33.620 additional information. Three cheers for Cremieux. I love them. All right. New York storefront businesses

00:00:40.800 are already weathering inflation and uneven recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, are also contending

00:00:47.500 with what the police say is a dramatic increase in shoplifting, but statistics reveal a startling

00:00:52.640 reality. A relative handful of shoplifters are responsible for an outside percentage of retail

00:00:57.980 crime. Nearly a third of all shoplifting arrests in New York City last year were just 327 people.

00:01:04.940 Police say collectively they were arrested more than 6,000 times. So just 327 people arrested over

00:01:15.900 6,000 times. So for example, that means in New York, 0.00385% of New York's population

00:01:25.060 is responsible for 33% of the shoplifting in the city. Now, if you are a sane person, you might be

00:01:32.280 thinking, why aren't those people in jail always? But it gets worse than that. This isn't unprecedented

00:01:39.680 by any means. The number of burglaries in Leinster plummeted after three men died in a car crash.

00:01:47.760 And I'm going to put an image on screen here of an article about this. And it actually took me a bit

00:01:51.540 to find how much it went down. It went down by from 2019 to 2023 by 43%.

00:01:57.220 Ah, yikes. And these, by the way, are three white looking bro guys. So if you're like reading this

00:02:04.740 and you're like, oh, this is like a black person thing or a Mexican thing. No, it's, you know,

00:02:08.580 depending on where you're living, it's just a criminality thing. Yeah. Well, it seems to be

00:02:14.340 when people make this their careers, then they just keep, especially if they discover that they can

00:02:19.840 make it their career kind of sustainably and they don't really get in that much trouble for it. Of

00:02:24.440 course they're incentivized to keep going because it's easier than working and they're probably in

00:02:29.020 some kind of debt hole or crime hole that they can't get out of. I disagree. That doesn't appear

00:02:35.420 to be what's happening. It appears to be mostly genetic. We'll get to that in a second.

00:02:38.420 Oh no. So cycling UK hails quote unquote cover policing after bait bicycle used to track down

00:02:47.240 130,000 pounds of bike theft, a bike theft gang stole in one shift. Local bike

00:02:54.360 theft fell 90% following the arrest was 11 people now sentenced. So arresting 11 people dropped

00:03:02.660 bikes in one British town by 90%. Okay. Yikes.

00:03:10.500 And this is where like, there's a progressive meme of that guy who's like, well, this guy stole my bike,

00:03:16.120 but you know, net the world's probably happier now because he needed the bike more than I did. And

00:03:22.200 you know, progressive brain rot of assuming the stabber is the victim and not the stabby if not

00:03:29.620 having a sane mind and understanding that the vast majority of crimes are done by very, very few people

00:03:34.740 who are career criminals and who are working for other career criminals with that money generally

00:03:40.660 going downstream to like big crime syndicates that are using it to terrorize grannies in Mexico. 0.88

00:03:46.960 Like, no, nobody is benefiting from your bike being stolen. In fact, it's making things worse. Yeah.

00:03:54.380 Better off if whoever stole your bike on average, if a bike thief was forced to kneel and executed on

00:04:01.240 the spot, the world would be better off. There would be less pain and there would be less suffering.

00:04:05.940 Yeah. That looks that way. Yeah. I mean, from these stats, that's, oh gosh, this is terrible.

00:04:12.620 I'm not saying we need to start executing everyone who commits a crime. I'm just saying,

00:04:18.720 think about it.

00:04:20.080 Just think, please consider it. That's all you're saying.

00:04:25.040 All right. Here's where it gets concerning here.

00:04:28.240 Okay. Like it's not already immensely concerning.

00:04:31.860 Oh, no, no, no, no, no. This is a, hold on. I'm just going to have a drink here so you can,

00:04:35.780 because we're going to be talking about adoption studies.

00:04:37.220 1% of adoptees whose biological parents had three or more offenses were responsible for 30% of the

00:04:59.320 offenses among adoptees. If you stopped people with three or more convictions from having kids,

00:05:06.720 the number of crimes in this country would drop.

00:05:09.840 Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

00:05:11.900 I'm not saying that's what we should do.

00:05:14.000 You're a danger town.

00:05:14.540 This is a danger town.

00:05:15.200 I'm pointing out a statistical fact. I am saying we shouldn't do this.

00:05:18.980 That would be a horrible, horrifying thing to do. I'm just pointing out that the statistics,

00:05:25.200 the statistics say that the 1% of adoptees whose parents had committed three or more crimes

00:05:31.580 committed over 30% of the crimes.

00:05:35.060 Wee woo, wee woo. 1.00

00:05:35.960 Oh, danger. Oh, God. They tried this. The PR disaster was-

00:05:44.680 It's not good for PR, no.

00:05:46.560 This is so bad for PR. This is so bad.

00:05:51.680 Ah.

00:05:53.040 Yeah, I don't, yeah, not great PR-wise, but if you, if you want to see how bad this would

00:05:59.400 be here, I'm going to show a homicide rate graph.

00:06:02.620 Sure. Show me the homicide rate graph.

00:06:05.900 Well, so this is a homicide rate for the rate of criminality graph.

00:06:10.620 Oh, okay.

00:06:11.140 So what it looks at is the homicide rate.

00:06:14.540 So it's the homicide rate for people who've been arrested of other crimes and the homicide

00:06:18.420 rate of non-criminals. If you look at non-criminals, the rate hovers around like 2 to 3%. If you

00:06:26.320 look at the percent of people who've been convicted of other crimes, it's like between 10 and 7%.

00:06:31.340 No, because of course it is. Of course it is. Of course. Yeah.

00:06:34.620 Or saving lives by executing that bike theft.

00:06:39.480 Yeah, this is really, it's making me reconsider. So I grew up in California where there was something

00:06:45.560 called a three strikes law that was largely condemned. I'm going to put huge numbers of

00:06:50.340 people in jail who quite frankly should not have been in jail. And I think a lot of that is because

00:06:55.040 they were, sorry, there we go. I think a lot of that is because they were jailed for drug charges,

00:07:05.520 like just possessing marijuana. Like that was enough for them to get three strikes and then just be in

00:07:09.620 jail forever, which is super dumb. But now when I look at the level of committing crimes again and again, 0.96

00:07:18.040 when they're damaging crimes, crimes that are like possessing marijuana, dude, like this person is just

00:07:22.760 chilling out for the most part. Okay. But then when you're shoplifting, when you're committing

00:07:27.340 burglary, when you're committing aggravated assault, when you are, God forbid, killing someone, that's

00:07:33.820 very different. That's where I feel like three strikes laws suddenly make a lot of sense because this is

00:07:38.720 ultimately who's committing all the crimes. And it's clear that if someone has committed a crime twice, they're

00:07:44.240 probably within that really small percentage of the population that's just going to keep doing it and

00:07:48.260 really, really, really hurting society. Wow. I mean, it just makes so much sense. And now I'm

00:07:53.820 getting really frustrated that the three strikes law was so poorly executed in California, which is

00:07:58.580 probably seen as a major case study. Yeah, focusing on like minor drug offenses instead of like deaths.

00:08:02.420 Yeah, because that's dumb. Of course, that's not a good idea. Like who thought that was a good idea? 0.84

00:08:07.420 And now anyone here is three strikes and they're like, that's a bad idea. Democrats and Democrats.

00:08:11.720 You just thought it was a good idea. But hold on. Remember, who was your head? No, sorry. Who was

00:08:20.080 the head of your cops and legal department during that period? It was Kamala Harris. Someone who is

00:08:25.240 when they said, oh, you know, you have you smoked marijuana privately. This is someone who jailed

00:08:32.000 thousands of people, tens of thousands of people for marijuana charges. She laughed when she was asked

00:08:37.160 if she'd smoke marijuana privately. She laughs always. That's her thing. She laughs.

00:08:40.840 My fingers are favorite. She laughs as if to imply, of course I am. I'm the elite. I get to do whatever

00:08:46.740 I want. That's what I would do as an autistic person who's just trying to. Simone, she would

00:08:51.240 have said no if the answer was no. I don't know. Listen, honestly, like as as someone who constantly

00:08:59.140 is trying to look normal in public and just make people feel comfortable and happy. I imply a whole lot.

00:09:04.860 Hold on. Have you smoked marijuana? No. Yes, you have. You must have.

00:09:10.840 No. Are you actually you haven't smoked marijuana? No, I've never I've never done any legal drug ever

00:09:17.640 period. I I've I've I've done fentanyl that is in surgery that is like only been in hospitals and I've had

00:09:25.640 You're arguing that Harris is as square as you and she doesn't want to admit it.

00:09:31.320 Yeah. She doesn't seem to me like the kind of person who would enjoy.

00:09:38.200 Like I disagree. I think maybe not. I don't know who caves to peer pressure and whenever we're around

00:09:45.060 our like billionaire friends or otherwise like super successful friends are always this is a weird thing

00:09:50.420 about life. Like as an adult, I understand dare so much more than as a kid. We go to her reticons.

00:09:55.300 They're like free tattoo seminar every day. You want to go to your free tattoos today?

00:09:59.500 You should have gotten a tattoo ring. I'm just saying it's or they'll say like, oh, you know,

00:10:04.880 we hang out with our other like super super wealthy friends. They're like, hey, you want to do drugs,

00:10:08.240 man? Our our normie friends never ask us to do this shit. They never have you seen the the tweet 1.00

00:10:14.040 that went viral, which was a picture of RFK on Trump Force One eating McDonald's with with Elon Musk

00:10:22.080 and Donald Trump. And I think it was Don Trump Jr. I love it. There was like peer pressure.

00:10:27.420 Peer pressure. RFK who hates McDonald's. Of course he caved. Yeah, he kind of had to.

00:10:35.220 Yeah, no, rich people peer pressure is a real thing. But also, I don't I don't feel comfortable

00:10:41.200 with with like controlled substances like that, because I don't know the exact dosage in provenance.

00:10:51.660 Like I spoke about this with someone I won't name, who has done a lot of psychedelics, but he he's done

00:10:59.820 them all with like Stanford researchers who have like lab grade psychedelics. And I would like offered

00:11:06.940 me psychedelics. No, this is a guy this is. But no, yeah, no, that that was it was the the person who

00:11:14.120 was in our house when a deer was shot outside. Oh, that guy. It's the tornadic precursors guy who was

00:11:21.200 like, but but like in those scenarios, I would, of course, be comfortable. Well, I mean, we don't

00:11:26.580 want to do psychedelics until we feel like we're less creative. But like, I would be comfortable

00:11:31.060 trying something else. If I knew that it was, you know, I knew where it came from. I knew what the

00:11:36.300 dosage was. I knew exactly what I was playing with. But I wouldn't just like, I don't know, it's it's

00:11:42.120 akin to eating food off the floor. You don't know where that's been. I mean, okay, I eat food off the floor

00:11:47.040 all the time now that I have kids. But like, you know what I mean? Yeah. Like eating a an ice cream

00:11:53.200 cone that you found on the street in New York. I'm not doing that. That's gross. Even if a billionaire

00:11:59.200 got it, I don't care. Gross. All right, so I'll continue with this. Please work. God, yes. Go on. 0.78

00:12:08.320 If it because you're talking about the three strike law, if the three strike law had been effectively

00:12:12.320 enforced in Sweden, it would have reduced violent crime by half. That's huge. The three strike law

00:12:20.320 is actually important in terms of reducing crime. And we as a country need to say, let's learn how to

00:12:25.720 correctly implement it instead of it's bad. Yeah. Yeah. A few people with extensive criminal histories

00:12:34.900 drive most crimes, arrests, etc. When it comes to the population that actually serves jail time,

00:12:39.780 the reasons largely have to do with these people just being impulsive. And that's the end of the day.

00:12:45.040 It is all about impulsivity. Recall that violent crime explains the largest part of the prison

00:12:50.900 population and that getting in dumb fight explains most violent crime. Yeah. And that's all about

00:12:56.940 impulse control. Most violent crime and even most homicides that are known were created by personal

00:13:04.060 disputes. And after personal disputes, the next biggest one is group related conflict.

00:13:11.660 And after that, it is instant dispute. And after that, it is drug related dispute.

00:13:17.660 Wait, what is instant dispute?

00:13:20.060 I think it's just like, basically, somebody pissed you off. And after that,

00:13:25.340 it's robbery. Way down, down, down, down, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Robbery. And then what happens

00:13:31.280 when you go past robbery? Domestic violence. Again, just poor self-control. Yeah. And then below

00:13:38.100 that, retaliation or revenge? That's a crime? Well, when you murder someone, it is. Oh, okay. These

00:13:46.640 are causes for, okay. Yeah. Not murder. Murder or assault. Like, revenge isn't a crime in and of

00:13:52.120 itself. Yeah. I was like, ooh. Or revenge is. Yes, Simone. No, except for there was that one

00:13:59.880 exception. I think it was in some Asian country where if you were a woman and your husband cheated

00:14:06.620 on you, you had the right to legally kill him. Really? I think you had to be with your bare hands,

00:14:12.580 but you could kill him. Whoa. Yeah. Wait. So if you murdered me with your bare hands, 1.00

00:14:18.080 that was legal in that country? My understanding was, yes, that if you had proof that they cheated

00:14:23.040 on you and you murdered them with your bare hands, you had to get out of jail free card with that.

00:14:27.560 So I think what I would do as a wife in that scenario, if I cared about that and I wanted to 0.71

00:14:32.520 kill my husband is one, you get totally documented proof. You submit it to a lawyer. You make sure like

00:14:37.020 the lawyer is like, yep, checks out. This is going to hold up in court. And then, I mean,

00:14:40.700 I think it's pretty easy to strangle someone at night, like while they're sleeping.

00:14:44.380 First, you sort of. I don't think you'd be able to strangle me unless you drug me or something

00:14:47.320 first. I'm significantly. Dude, you are such a heavy sleeper. That's the problem. Even so,

00:14:52.660 I'd wake up in time. Simone. I don't really. Just look, you know how much stronger I am than you.

00:14:59.680 I'd have to tie you to the bed or something, but. Okay. You'd have to tie me to the bed. I'm sure

00:15:05.340 there would be like a well-known collection, like in online forums of like, okay, if you're a

00:15:10.600 wife in this country and you've been cheated on, you know, I'm like, there'd probably be

00:15:15.120 specialized lawyers who had like kits, you know, like here's your, and also there are

00:15:19.540 the best way to kill someone used to be on a cruise ship. Very easy way to kill someone. 0.93

00:15:23.600 No, no, but this, again, I think that the rule in this country was that you had to kill them with 1.00

00:15:27.660 your bare hands. Like you couldn't take a firearm. No, yeah, I'm just saying, because you're like 0.99

00:15:30.720 different countries. We're not in that country. If you want to kill someone in this country,

00:15:33.760 it's boats. Well, yeah. Well, not get caught, right? Like you don't even have to like, 0.98

00:15:37.780 be worried about the illegality of it because there's such a tragic boat accident. Yeah.

00:15:42.780 Yeah. And it's, it's considered an accident and it happens to like a surprising number of people

00:15:46.600 every year. Yeah. Like if you ever meet someone who's, who's a family member or significant loved

00:15:54.340 one died in a tragic boating accident. Yeah. They're a murderer. Yeah. No, a tragic boating

00:16:00.900 accident. Yes. It's always, it's always a tragic boating accident. Yeah. If it was. Well,

00:16:05.020 for yachting accidents, of course, you know. Oh. Yeah. But no, I mean, that is a great way to

00:16:13.620 kill someone. When we have, one of our really old podcast episodes is about this. Yeah. How you

00:16:20.340 would kill me if you were going to kill me and how I would kill you if I was going to kill you. But 1.00

00:16:23.220 I think that the answer that both of us came to is just boats. No, I said icicle. What? Like

00:16:28.400 icicle. So you typically need a murder weapon. Yeah. And it melts. I get that. But like,

00:16:33.140 how do you do it? Well, so what you argue is that the icicle fell from a nearby building. This kills

00:16:40.140 people all the time. All you need to do is stab someone with an icicle. Oh, inside. Like, so 0.99

00:16:46.000 they're asleep or something and then you stab them from the right angle. No, don't do that. That'd be 0.93

00:16:50.140 too easy. I mean, you might even create like an ice shooting gun and then stab them where the gun wound 0.99

00:16:54.360 was. Oh, well, just create an ice shooting gun. Like, that's so easy. Oh, okay. And then why don't we 0.99

00:17:01.620 just, you know, solve the housing crisis at the same time? Yes. And then perfect. Good. Done. Done.

00:17:07.480 I'm glad we had this conversation. The ice shooting gun. So you put the ice through the wound. You can

00:17:13.800 say, oh, this fell after they fell. And then it fell through up there. It melts the weapon. It melts

00:17:19.180 the. You put the ice through the wound that you created with another weapon. Yes, because it

00:17:25.120 forensics is better than that. No, the ice has to be the weapon. So you create, you create the ice

00:17:31.960 shard. You supposedly, but see, you'd have to stab them from an angle that plausibly could have been 0.98

00:17:37.540 a falling icicle. And then also you have to make sure that from within the home, like if you're not

00:17:42.780 doing this on top of a plastic mat that you somehow dispose of later inside your home, you also have to

00:17:49.340 remove all blood splatters. You have to remove it from your body. I mean, people bleed, people splatter.

00:17:54.460 It's embarrassing and gross. That's why I'm not into murder. It's like too

00:17:58.500 unhygienic. Well, yeah. Why don't you just like quiet quit in your relationship and let it fall

00:18:03.860 apart the normal way, you know, do it the normal way. Or maybe like just, we were going to get into

00:18:11.640 robbery. Okay. Okay. How would you do robberies? Now robberies when you just take it from someone

00:18:18.400 burglary is when you sneak in, are we being burglars? Okay. How would you do it? We were going to make

00:18:22.880 our money through criminality. How would you do it? Oh, dude, like office space style where you

00:18:29.600 discover how to like shave a penny off of transactions in some way where we don't have

00:18:33.480 access to anything that we can put a book. Well, then step one is get access to something

00:18:37.240 like that. I mean, I'm sure that there are billions of people in the federal government

00:18:40.120 doing this every single day. It's called procurement. You know, no, no, no, no. I think that you've hit on

00:18:45.820 a huge under, under exploited arbitrage area of criminality, which is stealing from corporate

00:18:52.840 offices that not many people are using anymore. I think there's a bunch of corporate offices that

00:18:56.820 people barely visit anymore. They're really just there to tell investors. Oh, it's all just like

00:19:02.320 remote work. No, no, no. But people are starting to enforce in office work again. I think largely

00:19:07.460 companies like Amazon, because they got permission and huge tax breaks for these offices in states that

00:19:14.440 expected people to come. I don't disagree that companies like Amazon are doing this. But what

00:19:18.000 I'm saying is I bet there's a 10 to 25% of companies in the United States right now that

00:19:22.160 are basically empty almost all the time. Well, we know this when we host those dinner parties in New

00:19:25.780 York and we're like in the 36th floor on Park Avenue. Yeah, because you can look at the offices.

00:19:29.800 They're just all empty. But here's why I also feel like burglary is super dumb now and I don't get it. 0.88

00:19:36.020 Is this like, where's the secondary market for this? Are they selling it on Facebook marketplace? You're not 0.60

00:19:41.060 making a ton of money there. Like who, who's buying this? You would need to industrialize the scale of 0.54

00:19:47.920 this. Oh, and that's why there's like this huge Mexican cartel that sells all the bikes. Yeah,

00:19:52.160 I guess you have to create a, you have to take it to scale. Yeah, there has to be like some,

00:19:59.340 some scale that you're going to take, what, staples? You're going to sell the staples? You're

00:20:03.720 going to sell old computers. You don't sell the staples. You then put it all on like, like eBay

00:20:08.680 or something, right? Pretty undifferentiated products. Yeah. Maybe that's what Newegg does.

00:20:16.840 But if you do this at like, okay, you better hire minimum wage workers, right? Yeah. But if you do

00:20:22.760 this at all of the corporate parts, right? There are just so, so, so many of these.

00:20:27.620 Yeah. Maybe that's where AWS gets all its compute power. Maybe this is where Newegg gets all of its

00:20:34.780 computers. Maybe this is already being done. You know, you always wonder. I know. I bet

00:20:41.000 have these places that's like dusty and old and they don't have like new computers and no one's

00:20:45.160 been there. I genuinely think a lot of places are like only pretending to operate and really no one

00:20:49.740 has really worked for them since COVID. Yeah. I just, I wouldn't work in resale. I just feel like,

00:20:53.840 oh, like getting product market fit. Like that's now you're just creating a business. Like just,

00:20:58.160 I don't know, find something easier that doesn't get, you know, that doesn't involve crime. Cause

00:21:02.000 that's another liability. And that's, that's uninsurable. I just wouldn't do it. So, okay.

00:21:09.240 You want to insure our crime business? I don't know. I want to protect myself from downside risk. I

00:21:14.500 think that, you know, any, any responsible business owner, and this is why ultimately this is

00:21:18.860 unfortunately coming back to this really uncomfortable conversation about like in the 0.97

00:21:25.120 end, if you're dumb enough to do crime, it's typically because you are, you're not, you don't 0.98

00:21:31.600 have the processing power capable of thinking through all of the consequences. And therefore 0.99

00:21:35.800 you do it because you aren't thinking about the downside. What downside risk? You don't do crime

00:21:42.180 because you can't get insured. This is, this is your, because I'm thinking of the second and third

00:21:47.840 and fourth and fifth order consequences. And my argument here in the problem and the very

00:21:51.340 inconvenient truth of crime is that the people who commit crime maybe aren't capable of thinking

00:21:57.640 through the second and third and fifth and seventh order consequences. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay.

00:22:02.660 Simone. So you have to make your money through something that's illegal. What are you doing?

00:22:09.740 Our family runs out of money. You're just like, I need money tomorrow. What are you doing?

00:22:13.820 I'm doing something legal because if it's illegal that your downside risk could make,

00:22:17.560 could take you from $0 to dead, to your family taken away from you. Like just, again, the downside

00:22:25.440 risk, crime doesn't pay. I mean, crime pays some people, but then there's always, you know,

00:22:31.180 think about the guy who was a dread pirate Roberts, huge respect for him. Read that biography,

00:22:36.300 fantastic biography. Can't remember the name of it that talks about his whole story, creating the Silk

00:22:41.280 Road. He was, I mean, okay. He got, he was very sloppy and made some very stupid early mistakes,

00:22:46.120 but he was very smart and he still got caught. And, and that sucks. Like he just, it's not worth it. 1.00

00:22:54.000 How did he get caught?

00:22:54.620 Trying to remember. He let, it was a sting operation. Someone that he trusted ultimately

00:23:03.000 got close to him and was able to reveal enough information. And then he was also found

00:23:08.380 in a library. They were able to get him to a library. He was found.

00:23:13.460 A library to do what? How did that confer with him?

00:23:17.040 Oh God, I can't honestly, if my memory's so bad, if it's not useful to me, I don't remember it.

00:23:21.020 Oh, how was he?

00:23:21.860 He had to be at a library to,

00:23:24.880 with, with the laptop, with all the incriminating information. And that's where they had to catch

00:23:30.960 him. They had to lure him out there, but I can't remember exactly how and why they did that.

00:23:35.540 It was incredibly smart.

00:23:37.600 If you're curious like me on this particular point, I decided to look this up and edit and post.

00:23:41.340 Ulrich made several critical errors that led to his identification. He used the name

00:23:45.220 Altoid to announce Silk Road on a Bitcoin forum and later used the same username to ask for

00:23:50.720 programming help, providing his personal email address. Both Ulrich and DeadPirateRoberts were

00:23:56.760 vocal supporters of libertarian economist Ludwig von Mises with Ulrich's public Google Plus account

00:24:02.380 linking to related videos. Oh, getting busted for a Google Plus account.

00:24:06.700 They seized a server in Iceland that gave access to personal chat logs. They traced some of his

00:24:13.360 activity to a cafe in San Francisco near his residence. The final trap, October 1st, 2013.

00:24:19.460 They monitored public places with free Wi-Fi, like San Francisco's Glen Park neighborhood.

00:24:24.500 Ulrich was observed leaving his apartment and entering Glen Park Branch Library. An undercover

00:24:29.720 agent posting as a Silk Road administrator engaged Dredd Riot Rawert in an online chat. When Ulrich logged

00:24:35.560 into the Silk Road administrator account, FBI agents in the library moved in and arrested him.

00:24:39.700 To prevent Ulrich from encrypting and deleting his files, agents created a distraction while another

00:24:45.040 seized his laptop.

00:24:46.000 But here's what I would ask. Yeah. Tomorrow, the head of a Mexican cartel dies, you end up taking

00:24:53.680 over because they find out that you're the long lost guy. Then I like legitimize their business. I'm

00:24:57.840 like, all right, we're firing these people. Like, I'm, you know, I am going to have to kill people. 1.00

00:25:01.420 They'd kill you if you did that. No, no, no. You have to, you have to run their existing operation. 1.00

00:25:05.600 Okay. Where are the arbitrage opportunities within the criminal market right now? I think you'd be the

00:25:09.400 most ruthless and effective criminal boss I have ever seen. Oh, thank you. That's sweet. No, I think 0.68

00:25:18.340 honestly, I think a lot of women would be really effective criminal bosses. Um, I also think the 1.00

00:25:22.960 Mexican cartels right now as a woman. Yeah, that would, that would not surprise me at all, even 1.00

00:25:27.260 remotely. But I think it's one of those things also, I think where a big problem you get in many

00:25:34.500 industries, like the fashion industry, for example, is it attracted, uh, like much of the talent it 0.92

00:25:40.760 attracts is just kind of dumb talent that doesn't really understand fashion or business dynamics. 0.91

00:25:45.640 And just as like, Oh, it's pretty, it's high status. And they go there and they kind of mess 0.99

00:25:49.080 everything up. And then when you get someone who goes in there and has a business mind, they just

00:25:52.620 clean up. And often they don't give a shit about fashion. Like when you look at how some key people 0.99

00:25:58.400 at Vogue dress, they like wear like black sack clothing because they don't care. Like they just,

00:26:03.700 they can't be bothered. And then they kind of dictate how everyone else dresses or, I mean,

00:26:08.300 that's how it used to be now. Of course, fashion has very different industry dynamics and market

00:26:11.640 dynamics, but yeah, I think the, the, the core thing is understanding the, the underlying dynamics

00:26:18.900 and the 4d game of chess and not actually caring about the thematics of the thing. And I think to a

00:26:25.000 great extent, crime is like, it's like a search fund. So search funds or like down market private

00:26:30.700 equity is what we were into. And it was all about finding inglorious markets that were under managed

00:26:37.560 that had a lot of people operating them who could with smarter operations and better connections,

00:26:43.240 make a lot more money. And to a great extent, I think crime is a lot like that. It's stuff that

00:26:47.540 people just don't want to deal with. And then they find there's a market opportunity and they make

00:26:51.420 money from it. So here's my question for you. If you're choosing between one of two styles,

00:26:54.900 because the existing cartels that sort of fight have one of two styles, like one cartel,

00:26:58.540 they try to do everything pretty business-like and be on good terms as much as they can with the

00:27:03.340 local population. And the other major cartel just basically kills anyone who opposes them.

00:27:08.500 Yeah. Which side, how would you handle opposition if you're running a cartel?

00:27:15.080 I would probably, I would be the former and I would probably step in. Here's, here's where I guess

00:27:20.720 there's here, if we're talking good tailwinds, right. Is to become what government has failed to be.

00:27:28.020 So like vigilante, so like they will just go in and kill people who shoplift multiple times, 0.98

00:27:34.140 like just dead. They will be, they will be the ones to be law enforcement when law enforcement 0.91

00:27:39.200 literally doesn't have the right. So when the U S starts to collapse, you will start a criminal

00:27:43.520 organization. Yeah. A criminal or yeah. And of course it needs protection money. Like it does, 0.94

00:27:49.020 it does take taxes. Yeah. Taxes. But like, yeah, basically like the government, like work with

00:27:57.600 me here. Like imagine. Manhattan needs a second. No, but like this is, this is, but this is, that's

00:28:04.820 the thing is this is literally what Kings were. Kings were the ones who like were able to create enough

00:28:11.920 societal stability and order where like, you would become the clan chieftain or you'd become the

00:28:17.160 king. And then like, suddenly then like civilization spring up and then you have a legitimate government

00:28:21.860 and suddenly you're not a criminal anymore. You're respected and you wear your robes and you're, you know,

00:28:26.840 so like fancy and you have your like hood and like, just, but like, yeah, that's what I would do.

00:28:31.720 I would create civilization and it would start out illegal and very violent because it would need to be,

00:28:36.340 I guess. What would you do? Would you be the nice or the mean? I actually think you do need a certain

00:28:42.920 level of ruthlessness to maintain operations in a region like this. I think like what America, 0.76

00:28:48.340 New York, a CVS, New York. I think what you need to have is hard lines in the sand. They cannot be

00:28:55.400 adjudicated by on the ground people, or they will abuse these lines in the sand. However, you do need

00:29:00.940 some sort of system for adjudication, which is fairly good at deciding. It doesn't need to be perfect.

00:29:05.340 80%. And if somebody crosses one of these lines, execution. And I think outside of that, 0.84

00:29:12.700 things like incarceration, especially long-term incarceration and government systems for like 0.89

00:29:17.840 the death penalty are really silly. They're very, very, very expensive. Government death penalty

00:29:23.840 actually costs more than keeping someone in jail for their entire life. So we need to make these

00:29:28.740 systems more efficient and more extreme. And I think that you would quickly see many people living

00:29:46.340 better lives, both because they're not dying due to the, you know, as we pointed out, the criminal

00:29:52.480 individuals end up killing lots more people. Two words, Malcolm. Penal colonies. Say it with me.

00:29:58.840 I mean. Well, here's a question I ask you about the adoption study. I mean, what are your thoughts

00:30:07.120 on sterilization? I mean, it's maybe sterilization is making a comeback. There was that one Japanese 1.00

00:30:15.080 politician who thought that one way to boost, um, fertility in Japan was to, um, force sterilization

00:30:23.820 on Japanese women who didn't have children by the age of 30. I actually agree with that. People need

00:30:29.240 to understand their fertility windows. And I think, no, he he's getting on something, but he's, he's,

00:30:34.600 he's sort of modeling it. There are two things that he's touching on here that have a lot of weight.

00:30:40.240 One is people have to be aware of their fertility windows. Two is people won't appreciate the value

00:30:46.760 of life until they understand just how fleeting and rare and difficult to achieve it is. And he's,

00:30:52.840 he's getting at that, but he's getting at it the wrong way. Threatening people with sterilization is

00:30:57.580 not the way. And this is where we hit. I mean, speaking of fertility windows, this is where I hit

00:31:01.620 onto a very interesting fact recently that you and I have been talking about. We might do an episode

00:31:05.520 on which is black American, African-American fertility windows are significantly smaller 0.88

00:31:11.560 than any other ethnic group. What on earth? No, we need to research this way more though. I really 0.86

00:31:15.860 want to understand what's going on. You are a black woman. You need to have kids much earlier than 1.00

00:31:22.360 other ethnic groups before your fertility collapses. And because our society doesn't talk about ethnic

00:31:28.180 differences and things like fertility windows, like we just completely ignore this. And so a lot of

00:31:33.560 black women are like trying to get pregnant in their thirties and they're like, wait, black women 1.00

00:31:37.680 are sterile by the time they're 30. I will note here that this isn't the way the science investigates 0.98

00:31:42.480 this problem. They would just say that black women are twice as likely to experience infertility than 1.00

00:31:47.460 white women. They would then go on to say black women are two to three times more likely to be 1.00

00:31:51.360 diagnosed with uterine fibroids, which can affect fertility. And they would say that IVF outcomes are

00:31:57.720 much lower success among black women than white women without attempting to just lower the age at 1.00

00:32:04.360 which they're having kids. Because of course, then we would be admitting that there are actual

00:32:08.400 medical ethnic differences between individuals. For example, black kids gestate for much less than

00:32:13.620 white kids. But we can't talk about any of this for whatever weird reason, which is obviously having

00:32:18.220 really deleterious effects on the black population. I can see why from a progressive mindset, 1.00

00:32:22.340 it would be horrifying if it got out that if you're a black woman and you want to have kids, 0.96

00:32:27.660 you need to do it in your twenties. If you want to have the same shot as a white woman who's doing 1.00

00:32:32.300 it in her thirties. And it's like, yeah, it turns out that that's about the case. And this explains,

00:32:38.200 I think why if you are not in the bottom, I think it's like 15% or 18% of income of the black

00:32:46.680 population, you have a lower fertility rate than any other ethnic group in the United States.

00:32:52.040 That is wild. No, we have to dig deeper on though. This is going to be a really interesting

00:32:56.240 episode. We have to do it because, ah, that's so scary. And yeah, talk about like double-sided

00:33:04.500 attack. One, you have Planned Parenthood, which was like designed for like black genocide. 1.00

00:33:09.440 So what she means here is that the person who founded Planned Parenthood worked with the KKK. 0.59

00:33:14.320 She said the goal of the organization was to remove genetically undesirable people from the United

00:33:18.120 States population. And very clearly targeted black populations. Even today, 83% of Planned 0.92

00:33:23.500 Parenthood clinics are in majority minority neighborhoods and the black population of the

00:33:28.140 U S would be a quarter higher if Planned Parenthood didn't exist. Yeah. So this is like one end of like

00:33:32.540 aborting disproportionately black babies in the United States. And then there's this other end of 0.94

00:33:37.240 like, oh my God, wait. And their fertility window seems to be disproportionately shorter just

00:33:41.300 for whatever reason. This is just like, you know, a key for dysgenics, right? Like

00:33:46.940 what I mean is it disproportionately means that the individuals in the community who are like,

00:33:54.020 if you're like, okay, so why is wealthy black fertility? People who are being, I guess, responsible 0.99

00:33:58.540 waiting until they have enough money and enough home and all these other things that are impossible

00:34:02.700 to get these days. And then they're ready. And then suddenly they can't have kids. This is,

00:34:07.780 this is horrible. Yeah. And then the, yeah. Anyway, three strikes laws, definitely in favor.

00:34:17.800 Okay. No, no low level drug offenses. What are you guys doing? Like the war on drugs that what a

00:34:23.460 mistake that was. Oh no. Trump's actually ramping up the fentanyl stuff. And I really agree with it.

00:34:29.020 No, no, no, no. I get that. I'm referring to like the nineties were on drugs where you go to jail

00:34:32.740 He wants to make it a, a, a death penalty offense to be selling drugs. Yeah. And for human trafficking

00:34:39.820 too. And for human trafficking. And I'm like, yeah, I'm all down for that. Yeah. I mean,

00:34:44.880 well, I under, I understand about, about having like really strict rules, but again, this concept 1.00

00:34:51.840 of like possessing drugs means that you go to jail is incredibly stupid. I'm not at all for that. 0.99

00:34:59.440 And I don't know. I mean, also like death penalty for selling drugs. I don't know. I don't know.

00:35:08.840 I think that that's not well advised that it's not an optimal decision. I think that what we really

00:35:15.140 need to be focused on is getting hard on repeat crimes that are actively damaging to social stability.

00:35:24.620 And yes, drug sale and consumption is, is a threat, but not as much as like shoplifting and aggravated

00:35:33.620 assault, murder, abuse, things like that. Like that, that is, that is a bigger fish to fry.

00:35:39.260 And once we have those under control, I'm happy to look at drugs. Um, but to a certain extent,

00:35:46.320 I do think that the masses need an opiate, like quite literally based on where society is going.

00:35:51.500 And I want, I mean, essentially what's happening, Malcolm is, and we've talked about this,

00:35:57.400 a huge portion of society is euthanizing itself. And I believe in euthanization that is humane.

00:36:03.500 Yeah. And I think that people being allowed to essentially euthanize themselves with,

00:36:09.740 with a pain dulling medication or, or, you know, a sort of suffering dulling medication

00:36:15.880 is, is the, is the empathetic and fair thing to do for people who've been essentially ruined by

00:36:22.320 society and by the woke mind virus or whatever you want to call it. No, seriously, Malcolm. Like

00:36:27.720 it's, it's not, it's not cool to ruin a bunch of people to, to effectively neuter them. They're not

00:36:34.000 going to have families. They're living in debt. They're not going to have meaningful lives. And

00:36:37.200 then to be like, Oh, and by the way, you don't get drugs.

00:36:39.280 That is what you're saying. Huh? You want to euthanize the woke people. 0.60

00:36:43.840 They're euthanizing themselves. They're dead men walking. I just don't want them to suffer 0.99

00:36:47.200 any more than they have to.

00:36:50.640 No, no, no, no. I've never been a fan of euthanasia. They're lazy and they're communists. 0.99

00:36:56.780 They're neats. 1.00

00:36:58.280 They're lying flat.

00:36:59.780 The euthanasia. I know.

00:37:01.280 I'll put the scene here.

00:37:02.520 They, they asked the president, Mr. President, what's your views on euthanasia? And he goes,

00:37:08.820 they're lazy and they're communists. He heard youth in Asia. 0.97

00:37:12.540 I know. I know. I know. I got your dad joke the first time.

00:37:16.520 Shut up. 0.98

00:37:17.780 I love you. 1.00

00:37:18.480 You need to shut up, Simone. You're a terrible wife and a bad mother. And I am sick and disgusted 1.00

00:37:25.380 to have married you. 0.95

00:37:26.860 Speaking of which, I'm going to try to make a Dutch baby tonight.

00:37:32.520 So more air fried, breaded, karai seasoned chicken, but I wanted to make a Dutch baby. And 0.99

00:37:38.820 you can tell me if this appeals to you. Because there's this dude who does these shorts that

00:37:45.120 I'm like, this might sound a little bit weird, but here's how you can make a Dutch baby.

00:37:51.360 Why is my YouTube totally broken? If I can restart it, because I feel like you would like this

00:37:59.860 and it seems really simple and maybe even the kids will like it.

00:38:04.660 And so let's see.

00:38:05.660 Show me.

00:38:06.480 Yeah, I'm getting it.

00:38:08.280 Is your phone working anymore? Do we need a new phone?

00:38:11.100 No. God, we need to stop buying things.

00:38:15.500 No more. There we go.

00:38:16.580 This might sound a little bit weird, but here's how you can make a Dutch baby.

00:38:20.420 Really good brunch dish.

00:38:21.620 Gas iron pans are the best for this.

00:38:23.180 So get a fresh one.

00:38:24.080 Place it in the oven to preheat at 425 degrees, about 20 minutes.

00:38:27.640 The best part of this recipe is that you can do it all in a blender.

00:38:30.040 So if you're a human, you got this.

00:38:31.680 And if you're not a human, I'll be there on five.

00:38:33.400 Three should have been chickens. 1.00

00:38:35.820 One and a half cups of all-purpose flour.

00:38:37.760 Half a cup of good milk.

00:38:38.980 Two tablespoons of that sap syrup.

00:38:40.680 Little ocean.

00:38:41.200 And a really good vanilla bean paste.

00:38:45.320 For all my visual learners, this is the consistency you're looking for.

00:38:48.700 20 minutes later, add some butter to the hot skillet and squish it around.

00:38:51.860 Add in the batter and put back into the oven for an interview for 20 to 25 minutes.

00:38:55.840 Or until the edges become golden brown.

00:38:57.600 Kind of like this brown Guatemalan meal.

00:38:59.600 That is literally an absolute beat.

00:39:01.580 I add a little bit of parmesan and prosciutto just to get that sweet and salty element.

00:39:06.080 Cheers.

00:39:07.520 Wow.

00:39:07.900 Perfect.

00:39:08.480 Air rated.

00:39:09.040 Salty and sweet.

00:39:09.680 Does not look good.

00:39:10.300 Well, no, no, no.

00:39:10.940 Just be separate.

00:39:11.800 Like in addition to the chicken.

00:39:15.800 Like as a salad.

00:39:16.460 Yeah, that works.

00:39:17.020 Try it.

00:39:17.480 Okay.

00:39:17.880 It'll have to be tomorrow.

00:39:19.060 I was going to make it tonight, but I needed an hour to do that since it's a free meal.

00:39:22.020 Oh, yeah.

00:39:22.440 Don't worry about it.

00:39:23.100 Look, Simone, use the air fryer. 1.00

00:39:24.400 Caramel muffins?

00:39:25.860 What?

00:39:26.400 What do you want as your starch with this?

00:39:28.340 Fried rice?

00:39:29.980 Yeah.

00:39:30.360 If you could make fried rice, it'd go really great with air fried chicken.

00:39:33.060 Especially if you can turn on some veggies and cut them up a bit.

00:39:35.700 Yeah.

00:39:36.000 You know it.

00:39:37.180 With the coconut rice?

00:39:38.840 With the coconut rice.

00:39:40.300 Oh, you are my sweetheart.

00:39:42.320 You are my special somepony.

00:39:44.560 My special somepony?

00:39:46.360 Oh, no.

00:39:47.340 You're a very special somepony.

00:39:50.820 Life is good.

00:39:51.900 All right.

00:39:52.300 Yeah.

00:39:52.640 Three strikes. 0.85

00:39:53.520 Good.

00:39:55.080 Drugs. 1.00

00:39:55.520 I want to strike criminals three times. 1.00

00:39:59.940 Everyone's allowed three hits like a piñata. 1.00

00:40:02.600 That's the three strikes rule. 1.00

00:40:04.300 But only three.

00:40:05.520 Only three.

00:40:06.900 Everyone has a baseball bat.

00:40:08.260 A government-issued baseball bat.

00:40:09.780 And you have three strikes.

00:40:11.540 Have a spectacular day, Simone.

00:40:13.500 I love you.

00:40:14.460 Me too.

00:40:14.960 I love you too.

00:40:16.580 Okay.

00:40:16.940 I love you too.

00:40:18.260 I love you too.

00:40:19.260 I love you too.

00:40:20.200 I love you too.

00:40:20.380 Get in there.

00:40:21.780 Whoa.

00:40:22.720 And then I'll show you how it actually suits.

00:40:25.260 You're really doing that water gun.

00:40:27.580 And then.

00:40:28.100 You're having a water gun.

00:40:29.440 You have to try it to keep you.

00:40:30.900 I know it's right.

00:40:32.320 I'm slowly.

00:40:34.260 Whoa.

00:40:34.700 Then I gotta put that in.

00:40:36.200 Whoa.

00:40:36.920 And then I gotta.

00:40:38.260 Whoa.

00:40:38.820 Whoa.

00:40:39.160 And then I gotta do this.

00:40:42.960 And then I'm gonna pull it up.

00:40:47.340 Okay.

00:40:49.460 Wanna pull your trigger?

00:40:51.080 It suits.

00:40:51.920 Wanna see how it suits?

00:40:53.640 Let's play.

00:40:55.580 And then I'm gonna pull it up.

00:40:57.640 And then I'm gonna pull it up.

00:40:59.400 And my water gun.

00:41:00.120 You're welcome.

00:41:00.960 Keep enjoying your day.

00:41:03.460 And then.

00:41:04.260 I just wanna be water gun.

00:41:06.580 There's not going.

00:41:07.640 Oh, no.

00:41:08.300 That ball.

00:41:08.880 That ball.

00:41:09.240 It's not fun.

00:41:10.240 It's just a bad.

00:41:11.920 Now.

00:41:12.160 Who are you talking to, Octavian? 0.96

00:41:16.220 I don't know.

00:41:17.940 Who's in the box?

00:41:19.740 I don't know his name again.

00:41:22.080 What do you want to?

00:41:23.020 I really don't know his name again.

00:41:24.160 Is he your friend?

00:41:25.680 Yes, I think.

00:41:26.980 Wow.

00:41:27.640 Using a printer.

00:41:28.300 I don't know.

00:41:30.420 I understand.

00:41:31.220 Why don't you ask what his name is?

00:41:34.000 What?

00:41:34.480 What?

00:41:34.800 What?

00:41:36.880 What?

00:41:37.720 What?

00:41:40.040 What?

00:41:40.400 What's your favorite game to play with it?

00:41:41.820 What?

00:41:43.740 So far.

00:41:44.920 To try.

00:41:46.100 I can't play with it.

00:41:47.100 Here's my favorite game.

00:41:48.680 There you go.

00:41:49.680 Yeah!

00:41:50.280 You

Based Camp - December 13, 2024

~0.004% of NYCers Commit 33% of Crime

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript