Based Camp - 2024： Trans Pendulum in Retrograde (The Study, The Leaks, & The Cass Report)

00:00:00.000 Hello, Simone! It is exciting to be here with you today.

00:00:03.680 You and I have done a number of episodes around trans issues before

00:00:07.960 and trying to get to what is most likely the truth about this stuff

00:00:12.200 because it is so politically charged.

00:00:14.640 It is very hard to get accurate readings of what's going on one way or the other.

00:00:19.240 If you're the type of person who's really into sexuality research, which we are,

00:00:22.040 we've written a book on the subject.

00:00:23.440 While I consider those episodes pretty comprehensive in terms of our views of the issue,

00:00:29.000 there have been three really big events that have happened since the recording of those episodes

00:00:35.600 and each of which are really worth diving into and we'll use that episode to do this.

00:00:42.960 The three events that I am speaking, of course, are about the CAS report.

00:00:47.840 Huge.

00:00:48.600 For people who don't know what this is, this is a report that did a review

00:00:52.720 and it's like now the gold standard that the UK is using to determine how they relate

00:00:58.320 to trans treatment, particularly in individuals under the age of 18.

00:01:03.340 And it came out pretty critical of a lot of the stuff going out on the field right now.

00:01:07.180 Another was a big study on longitudinally on trans individuals

00:01:12.700 and the trans community was pretty unhappy with the findings that it had.

00:01:17.180 With the biggest, from my perspective, being that of gender-conforming youth,

00:01:23.040 over 90% end up being totally okay with their gender when they're adults.

00:01:30.140 This is obviously a very important thing to know when you're looking at things like affirming gender care.

00:01:35.420 And then the final one was a leak of one of the major trans organizations

00:01:39.760 that sets a lot of the policy positions for Canada and the United States.

00:01:43.620 And the leak, a lot of people who are really anti-trans or I'd say overly trans-skeptical

00:01:51.560 have taken this leak to be uniquely damning.

00:01:54.900 And I think that there's actually a more nuanced perspective on some of these emails

00:01:58.460 and what's going on with this.

00:02:00.280 So I want to go over every one of these in turn with you and with our audience

00:02:05.020 to try to find out what's really going on here.

00:02:08.000 Would you like to know more?

00:02:09.040 So the first thing I wanted to do was to go into the study,

00:02:12.660 because to me, this is most interesting.

00:02:15.040 The Cass Report is more just like a political thing that's happening.

00:02:18.240 It's not really new information.

00:02:20.560 This study is new information.

00:02:23.320 And it's really interesting information.

00:02:25.400 And it's called Development of Gender Non-Contentedness During Adolescence and Early Adulthood.

00:02:30.960 And it came out in February 2024.

00:02:33.600 So this is what the study says.

00:02:35.000 We found that gender non-contentedness is most common around the age of 11

00:02:40.880 and that the prevalence decreases with age.

00:02:44.540 Moreover, we identified three different developmental trajectory types of gender non-contentedness

00:02:49.980 throughout adolescent and early adulthood.

00:02:52.420 One, the majority, 78% of the sample,

00:02:55.360 consistently indicated to never experience any gender non-contentedness.

00:02:59.600 So 78% of people at around the age of 11 just are totally okay with their gender.

00:03:04.140 All right.

00:03:06.380 Two, a group reporting gender non-contentedness in early adolescence,

00:03:11.100 but not any longer in adulthood.

00:03:13.920 19% of the sample.

00:03:15.320 So this is a population that starts feeling very non-contented with their gender

00:03:20.260 and then gets over it as they get older or no longer has these feelings.

00:03:24.160 These are transient feelings to them.

00:03:25.780 And we'll go into this group in a bit more detail in a second.

00:03:28.420 Three, a small group, 2% of the sample,

00:03:31.440 showing the opposite pattern of increasingly reporting gendered non-contentedness with age.

00:03:37.600 We found that female sex and participating in the clinical rather than the population cohort 0.87

00:03:42.980 was associated with increasing gendered non-contentedness.

00:03:46.660 So this is actually really important, what they said there,

00:03:51.320 being in the clinical, not the population cohort.

00:03:54.500 So what that means is when this study was conducted,

00:03:57.940 a portion of the participants that they were using were from the general population.

00:04:03.820 A portion of the population they were using was from clinical transitioning groups.

00:04:10.000 Okay.

00:04:10.220 All right.

00:04:10.540 So what they're saying here is that this percentage,

00:04:13.780 so if you're taking like a random shotgunning,

00:04:15.760 and just in case you haven't done the numbers in your head,

00:04:18.140 this means that of the people who at the age of 11 feel gendered non-contentedness,

00:04:21.920 over 90%, this feeling persists in them.

00:04:25.600 They do not feel this in adults.

00:04:26.900 It's actually mentioned in the studies that of this percent of the cohort,

00:04:30.440 not a single one of them felt gendered non-contentedness by the time they hit their 20s.

00:04:35.280 And this harkens back to the research that you had done when writing

00:04:37.980 the pragmatist's guide to sexuality, that sort of showed that a lot of people

00:04:40.960 either weren't super married to their birth sex, or otherwise just not like...

00:04:47.200 We're okay with playing around with different genders. 1.00

00:04:49.500 Yeah.

00:04:49.940 Now, what gets really interesting here is because this comes from the clinical cohort,

00:04:55.520 it means that actually in the gender, the general population more broadly,

00:04:59.780 these numbers are probably even lower of this group where this feeling increases over time,

00:05:04.180 which means that it's probably low, like the number of people who have gendered non-contentedness

00:05:09.260 when they're around 11 that end up not having it when they're adults,

00:05:12.200 this part of the cohort is likely much, much larger than 90%.

00:05:15.860 I might go as far as to say 98%, given what the data is showing here,

00:05:21.220 which is obviously a really devastating point for trans individuals.

00:05:28.960 So a lot of them have been attacking this study pretty vociferously.

00:05:32.760 But I think that this shows a...

00:05:36.920 But there's also individuals in the trans community who see the study and are quite excited about it

00:05:40.980 because they're like, it does show that you have this 2% where the problem gets bigger over time.

00:05:46.260 And this is really interesting.

00:05:48.440 So I'm going to keep reading some more because the key question then for the trans community

00:05:53.120 is how do you distinguish between these two groups?

00:05:56.640 Yeah. How do you tell when it's like real trans versus transient trans?

00:06:03.060 Yeah. Transient gendered non-contentedness that has to do with puberty, 1.00

00:06:06.700 which I've said in previous videos is a common part of childhood as being non-content with your gender 0.99

00:06:11.480 or the changes that are happening with your body over puberty.

00:06:14.660 That's normal.

00:06:15.800 And so what this study now does is it changes the entire playing field of transness

00:06:19.960 because we're also going to go over it in the context of previous studies

00:06:22.400 because it really is the best of the long-term studies in this space.

00:06:26.640 And it shows very exactly that if a young adolescent comes to you and says they do not feel content with their gender,

00:06:36.400 odds are hugely on the side that they're not going to feel like this as they get older

00:06:40.740 and therefore affirming these feelings is a bad idea.

00:06:44.360 Yeah. Yeah. Especially affirming them in any way that is biologically irreversible.

00:06:49.440 If, for example, they decide that their pronouns are going to be whatever, then okay.

00:06:54.000 But what it means is that right now the standard of care, trans-affirming care, takes it as a given.

00:07:01.800 Like a medical prognosis, or not prognosis, a medical mandate.

00:07:06.780 Yes. If a child comes to you saying this, use a mandate to affirm them.

00:07:11.000 And now we are seeing that is probably not the best course of action,

00:07:15.980 which changes what would be the recommended standard of care in youths who are gender non-conforming.

00:07:22.880 Well, just to highlight, one of the things that makes this really meaningful is that before this came out,

00:07:28.800 because the research is so bad, and one of the big themes of the cast report is the research is just so bad,

00:07:36.920 it's not like there's a ton of information showing it's damaging,

00:07:40.300 but there's also not any information that says it's really useful.

00:07:43.240 Hold on. We'll get to the cast report when we get to the cast report,

00:07:45.820 because if somebody who has only heard the trans side of the cast report argument,

00:07:50.020 they will hear, oh, they threw out X kind of research, which actually isn't bad.

00:07:54.180 And there's a lot of misinformation going on around the cast report.

00:07:57.340 So we need to wait till we get to that. We're going to focus on this study first, okay?

00:08:00.540 Okay.

00:08:01.000 Because I do want to go down a big rabbit hole on good versus bad studies

00:08:04.760 and what studies have actually been done and haven't been done,

00:08:07.220 but that's more related to the cast report than this stuff.

00:08:09.040 Okay. Okay.

00:08:10.120 So to keep going, in addition, individuals with increasing or decreasing gender non-continues,

00:08:15.820 trajectories had lower global self-worth, more behavioral and emotional problems,

00:08:21.280 and more often had homosexual or bisexual orientation compared to individuals

00:08:25.560 without gender non-contentedness. And so right here, I'm talking about the cohort

00:08:30.600 that ended up getting more of these feelings over time.

00:08:34.780 An increasing gender non-contentedness trajectory was significantly associated with a clinical cohort,

00:08:39.740 a homosexual or bisexual orientation, the self-concept subscale global self-worth,

00:08:44.680 and female sex, but not the self-concept subscale physical appearance. 1.00

00:08:50.820 Now, this is just so fascinating. I'm going to unpack what this means.

00:08:55.420 Please do.

00:08:55.980 We're seeing a few things here, right? One is that if you are a male assigned at birth

00:09:03.060 and you feel non-content with your gender in your youth, you are actually very unlikely to be in

00:09:08.640 this cohort where those feelings get worse over time.

00:09:10.520 If you do nothing, if you do not engage with the communities that are extra affirming of this,

00:09:16.560 it desists. So that's one thing that this is saying, which goes against what a lot of people

00:09:21.200 would intuit. Two, and this is what I think, why is it that the people with the gay and bisexual 0.93

00:09:26.060 orientations are more likely to have this increase over time?

00:09:29.540 I think it's because they are more likely to be in communities that affirm these feelings

00:09:33.680 than individuals without this. And so the feelings are more likely to get snowballed or sound echoed.

00:09:40.960 I think it's very similar to when you put a microphone too close to the speakers and then

00:09:44.340 you end up getting that screeching sound and you can get that within these communities.

00:09:47.820 Well, and the fact that you can gain status in those communities by showing how extreme you are

00:09:52.240 and a more extreme form of being in those communities is often turning trans.

00:09:56.100 So that's why I think, and then especially if you have low global self-worth, you are more likely to.

00:10:01.320 Oh, because you feel like you need to appreciate your value in those communities. Yeah.

00:10:05.240 And the self-affirmment that those communities are giving you for leaning into this,

00:10:09.680 the sort of love bombing behavior you have.

00:10:11.320 Oh yeah. So yeah, the affirmation you get, if you do lean into being trans,

00:10:14.840 if you're feeling really insecure, that's going to feel all the much better.

00:10:19.480 Yeah. Now let's argue this from the other perspective. This is me arguing from a more

00:10:23.680 critical perspective. What an individual could say is that if an individual is in these communities

00:10:28.360 that are more accepting of trans identities, i.e. they're gay and bisexual anyway, they are more

00:10:32.900 likely to transition and it's less of a jump because they're already presenting a non-normal

00:10:37.560 sexuality. So why not also go in this additional direction as well? With the global self-worth,

00:10:44.900 they'd say if you live in a transphobic society, wouldn't you have lower global self-worth if you fell

00:10:50.480 into one of these groups? But here is why I do not think that's a strong argument, the global self-worth

00:10:56.180 argument. Because individuals who felt equal amounts of gender discontentedness, but had higher

00:11:03.740 global self-worth as a use, so clearly they were okay with showing that they felt this, ended up

00:11:08.860 desisting in those feelings over time. So that doesn't explain to me, like the lower global self-worth

00:11:15.700 is clearly not a result or downstream of these feelings. It is what guides how these feelings,

00:11:22.400 whether these feelings end up persisting or not persisting in the individual, which is really

00:11:26.080 interesting. Now one of the most interesting things is the final thing where you're like, I don't know

00:11:29.240 what that means. The physical appearance scale. So what this is showing is contrary to what a lot of

00:11:36.160 people think, how attractive you are and how comfortable you are with how you look has no

00:11:43.520 correlation with whether you're in this true trans group, the group that, where the gender

00:11:49.660 discontentedness gets worse. Golly, wait, so the researchers are like grading the, he's a seven,

00:11:57.280 he's a four. Well, yeah, and self-conceptual subscale. So it's how they judge their own attractiveness.

00:12:02.420 But this is important, right? Because we've had, we've talked a lot with groups like the

00:12:07.720 Transmaxers. Transmaxers, which is a group of like incel males who are transitioning. 0.94

00:12:12.760 Yeah. And you can be a three as a male and like a seven as a female, depending on

00:12:17.420 the way that you may be unattractive as a male. If you look to effeminate or skinny or whatever,

00:12:22.140 like suddenly you're a gorgeous woman. Yeah. And there's this stereotype of becoming trans

00:12:26.360 is failing at your own gender. And so you go with the other one. That's just not true in the data

00:12:31.860 right now. What we're seeing that does not appear to be correlated with this group. So that's really

00:12:36.820 important. Now, one thing I wanted to know, cause I had mentioned this, but I want to read the quote

00:12:42.480 from the study here. The second largest group that was identified 19% had a decreasing trajectory of

00:12:48.100 gender non-contentedness at the sixth assessment wave around the age of 25. None of these individuals 0.76

00:12:55.000 reported experiencing gender non-contentedness anymore. Wow. All right. 0.93

00:12:59.960 So it's not like a iffy thing. It just goes away. Interesting. Now here I'm going to read a chunk

00:13:07.760 because this goes into the lack, because I think people are generally pretty surprised by the lack

00:13:13.200 of longitudinal studies done in this space. And this is something we could go way deeper on

00:13:17.780 with another episode potentially, but people may be like, wait, why haven't a lot of good long-term

00:13:23.060 studies been done of trans individuals? And the core answer is because the data banks for in the

00:13:29.860 social communities for trans individuals really push against them participating in studies and the,

00:13:36.420 and they push against releasing data. Now, if you want to take it from a kind perspective,

00:13:41.500 you could say they're afraid of scrutiny or scrutiny. I guess the data being used to what data will say.

00:13:47.740 And they're afraid of the studies being run, which is damning, which is really damning,

00:13:52.280 but I will go over what studies had been run in the past from the abstract of this. Sorry,

00:13:57.380 not from the abstract, from the intro to the paper. Furthermore, the few longitudinal studies

00:14:02.640 that have been conducted in a clinical setting found low persistent rates of early childhood gender

00:14:06.960 dysphoric feelings into adolescence and adulthood. And then it lists a few studies here. It was found

00:14:11.680 that children who socially transitioned in early childhood were more likely to have persisting

00:14:16.600 feelings of dysphoria. A non-clinical sample of 317 children mean the age of eight years who

00:14:23.720 identified as transgender, but who were not assessed according to the DSM-5 criteria for dysphoria.

00:14:29.100 94% still had binary transgender identity and 4% had non-binary identity at a five-year follow-up

00:14:35.940 assessment at 13 years of age. In this sample, it was also suggested that gender transition before

00:14:41.680 puberty is associated with continuing transgender identity. However, with only one follow-up

00:14:47.300 assessment until the age of 13, the further gender identity development into mid and late

00:14:52.240 adolescence remains unknown. So what they're showing here is like the big studies in this space that

00:14:57.380 have been done recently either showed that most of these feelings desisted or stopped at a very young

00:15:03.780 age at the age of 13, which this study would have shown a large level that you would still have

00:15:08.740 these feelings. So the lines is what this study found. And from another study here, they're saying,

00:15:14.680 or only contained one follow-up. In the Taiwanese sample, 87% never reported any dissatisfaction.

00:15:21.160 8% reported dissatisfaction at the age of 13, but not at the age of 21. 5% at 22 and not at 13.

00:15:28.680 And 1% reported persistent dissatisfaction. So this is a different sample. This is Pottery Barnet

00:15:35.300 called 2021. And this was in the Taiwanese data set. And what this study showed, again,

00:15:41.040 is that feelings of gender dissatisfaction are actually very transient between the ages of 13 and

00:15:47.420 22. Well, which really matches with our general thesis around adolescence being a period of body

00:15:54.500 dysmorphia in general, which makes sense because your hormones are going out of control and your body's

00:15:58.920 changing a lot. And it's super gross. Yeah. Yeah. No, it does make perfect sense. And it's

00:16:05.340 just worth noting that this is being repeatedly found across studies. Yeah. When people bothered

00:16:10.060 to do longitudinal research. Yeah. That's not just, and I would note if you heard from the earlier

00:16:15.660 study, actually, I'm not going to go over that. I'll just do that. Okay. So to go further in clinical

00:16:20.860 samples, it was found that gender dysphoria is associated with homosexual orientation also,

00:16:26.140 and this is from a different study, not theirs. So this is again showing that if you hang out in

00:16:30.300 gay population clusters, you are more likely to experience gender dysphoria. Also in population

00:16:35.280 based samples, associations between gender typical behavior in children and sexual orientation are

00:16:39.820 found. For example, in one population based study, children with gender nonconformity regarding play

00:16:45.600 behavior at ages three to five were more likely to report a bisexual or gay orientation later in life.

00:16:51.880 That's from... Oh, this sort of ties into what we always talk about with the TIDE studies, right?

00:16:56.140 Yes. This indicates that this could be downstream of... Okay. I just need to... Simone is referring

00:17:00.940 to studies that look at endocrine disruptors that are present in utero when male fetuses are

00:17:05.620 developing. It's been shown that it is correlated with more female-like than male-like play behavior

00:17:10.700 at a seven-year follow-up study. And so this would correlate to then say, if you're looking at this

00:17:15.640 play behavior as a correlatory thing here, and then you look at another study that looked at like

00:17:19.380 basically three to five-year-olds to then see if they became gay growing up, it suggests that even at a

00:17:25.520 biological level, we should see far more gay individuals in the general population than used

00:17:31.280 to exist before these endocrine disruptors came into companies. Became pervasive. Yeah.

00:17:36.480 Yeah. So very interesting to me. I find this study to be... It's absolutely game-changing for me because

00:17:43.600 before all I had to go on was my assumptions around this, right? Like... Yeah. And your intuitions and also

00:17:50.160 we'll say related research that we've seen, such as the TIDE studies, such as people's responses to

00:17:57.460 surveys about arousal pathways and sexuality, et cetera. And unfortunately, what this stuff indicates

00:18:03.460 to me is that just this first study in isolation, right? Is that you pretty much are better off

00:18:10.240 always delaying gender-affirming care until after the age of 18. Actually, preferably from the data

00:18:16.420 after the age of 22 or 25. Yeah. And an individual can say, but then it's harder for an individual to

00:18:22.080 really fully transition, right? But then I would say, yeah, except it's easier for women to really 0.99

00:18:28.680 fully transition to men. That's more a problem with male to female transition, which it turns out is a

00:18:33.940 category where the desire to transition desist if it is not affirmed. Yeah. It's... The population that would 0.99

00:18:42.000 have the most inclination to do this is a population that should most be dissuaded from doing it. Yeah. Yeah.

00:18:48.520 In addition to that, you've got the problem of what is the thing that really distinguishes these two

00:18:54.720 populations? It is an increased desire over time in a desire to transition between the age of the 13 to 25.

00:19:03.240 And I think that is perfectly reasonable. Basically, it says that for the individuals who actually are

00:19:09.180 trans, they do end up figuring this out eventually. And that seems to be the safest way to sort them 1.00

00:19:15.220 within the population. Yeah. And I think what we tell our kids too, and what I really expect to have

00:19:21.580 happen, is that treatment for transitioning is going to improve over time. This is all pretty new stuff.

00:19:28.560 And I think a lot of what's going on, for example, the dysphoria continues or could possibly worsen when

00:19:35.360 people actually do go on treatment. I think a lot of that comes down to the fact that honing in

00:19:39.760 on the right levels of hormones and everything, getting everything right, is really difficult.

00:19:46.720 Yeah. I mean, consider that we're on the edge of having like plasmid gene therapy, for example.

00:19:51.180 Exactly. Yeah. So like in the future, it might not even matter if you're trying to transition after

00:19:56.800 age 25, because through the help of AI and many other medical advancements, you'll be able to

00:20:03.180 handle it really well. It might actually be better to delay. And I think that will be one of the core

00:20:09.040 areas of complaint that many of these individuals are going to have, is there will be like the first

00:20:13.180 generation of people who get cybernetic implants. And then a few years later, the implants are

00:20:17.660 dramatically better. And the first generation was like, why did I get stuck with Gen 1 tech?

00:20:21.580 Yeah.

00:20:21.940 So that's, I think, another really important thing that you're pointing out there.

00:20:25.420 But let's go into the CAS report really quickly. So I'm going to read some notes on this because it

00:20:29.400 is absolutely critical. This report, while it is not really new information, it's almost a meta study

00:20:35.360 of what's been going on, is critical because it is completely changing the general narrative

00:20:41.420 around the way governments deal with trans individuals.

00:20:45.260 I would say doctors, like general practitioners, like just doctors and therapists in general.

00:20:50.380 Yeah. This study has been accepted among a lot of people in the mainstream left, not among the

00:20:56.220 extreme cultists, but in the mainstream left, this is seen as the voice of the authority. And so we're

00:21:01.180 going to go over both the study and the complaints about the study and the counters to those complaints.

00:21:05.880 Goody.

00:21:06.080 Okay. So Dr. Hilary Cass, the pediatrician commissioned to conduct a review by the NHS

00:21:12.500 to children and young people questioning their gender identity, said that while doctors tended to

00:21:16.900 be cautious in implementing new findings in emerging areas of medicine, quote, quite the reverse happened

00:21:22.800 in the field of gender care for children, end quote. They studied a total of 23 guidelines published

00:21:27.720 by different countries between 1998 and 2022. All but two were published after 2010. Quote,

00:21:33.880 health care services and professionals should take into account the poor quality and interrelated

00:21:39.220 nature of the published guidance to support the management of children and adolescents experiencing

00:21:44.220 gender dysphoria and incongruence. In one study, she said a single Dutch medical study,

00:21:49.840 quote, suggested puberty blockers may improve psychological well-being for a narrowly defined

00:21:54.660 group of children with gender incongruence, end quote, has formed the basis for their use to,

00:22:00.060 quote, spread at pace to other countries, end quote. Subsequently, there was a, quote,

00:22:05.740 greater readiness to start masculinizing slash feminizing hormones in mid-teens, end quote.

00:22:12.500 She added, quote, some practitioners abandoned normal clinical approaches, holistic assessment,

00:22:18.460 which has meant that this group of young people have been extra-petitionalized compared to other

00:22:24.140 young people with similar complex presentations. They deserve much better, end quote.

00:22:28.620 So here, what I want to pull out is a few things that she said here, which are really important.

00:22:33.860 One is that she's noting that most of the government guidelines that they're using for

00:22:37.520 transition and gender nonconformity in minors are really just based on other government reports

00:22:44.340 on the same thing. It's a bunch of studies pointing at each other without a lot of primary

00:22:49.760 evidence. And we're going to get to this claim because this is the thing that a lot of trans activists

00:22:55.000 will have a complaint about is the not a lot of primary evidence. So just to keep going here,

00:23:00.720 most of them lacked, quote, an independent and evidence-based approach and information about

00:23:05.780 how recommendations were developed, end quote, the researcher said. Few guidelines were informed by

00:23:11.020 a systemic review of empirical evidence, and they lacked transparency about how their recommendations

00:23:16.700 were developed. Only two reported consulting directly with children and young people during

00:23:20.940 their development, the York academics found. Data from the gender clinics reported in the CAST review

00:23:26.320 showed that the vast majority of people who started puberty suppression went on to have

00:23:31.140 masculinizing or feminizing hormones, suggesting that puberty blockers did not buy people time to

00:23:35.840 think. Now, this is actually really important because this is seen in a lot of data. The moment you start

00:23:40.000 puberty blockers or really any form of gender-affirming care, you're basically in the pipeline

00:23:45.720 and almost nobody leaves the pipeline, which is why this other study is really important because

00:23:50.540 it's looking at people who don't fall into the pipeline. And a lot of the studies that were done

00:23:55.000 on quote-unquote trans individuals in the clinical population only looked at people who had pre-gone

00:24:00.040 into the pipeline. And that's why it was so important for her to find control groups in blind studies,

00:24:05.700 which was her core complaint of a lot of these studies. And we know from other studies, once you're in

00:24:09.840 the pipeline, you're in the pipeline, there's really no getting out of it. Yeah. Which makes sense if

00:24:14.360 your entire social community at that point affirms this decision. And if you detransition,

00:24:19.640 and we're going to see this from the leaked emails, you get completely ostracized from your entire

00:24:24.740 community. It's like, you know, converting out of being a Jehovah's Witness or an Amish or something

00:24:31.380 like that. It is incredibly difficult to do. And it is incredibly difficult to stop from a social

00:24:37.900 perspective if you're in these systems. And for the individuals who are like, can't you understand that

00:24:42.900 they feel threatened by the narrative around detransition? And you're the very people who

00:24:46.740 criticize people like Jehovah's Witnesses for the way they ostracize people who form new beliefs and

00:24:51.500 systems. Like, how can you not see how hurtful what you're doing is and why it makes people afraid

00:24:57.160 to leave the pipeline and why it creates these psychological cycles where it becomes very difficult

00:25:02.960 to leave the pipeline? Okay. But now let's keep going. I want to then talk about debunking the

00:25:08.620 cast report, right? Because I went through a lot of people who were talking about debunking this

00:25:13.680 and it is very interesting and worth digging into. Here's from a Reddit post. Now, here are the four

00:25:21.880 points that they had found for debunking if they're just arguing against it. Point one, the report engaged

00:25:27.900 with anti-trans hate groups and was written by someone affiliated with them. Does anyone have a source

00:25:33.060 for this? Question mark. Basically, the sources for this are, here, I'll give it to you. Cass follows

00:25:38.900 the LGB alliance and transgender trend, both recognized as anti-trans groups. She doesn't

00:25:45.000 follow any pro-trans groups. That is the full extent of that. So yeah, basically, hate group is

00:25:50.020 anyone who's, oh, let's be careful about this. Hate. Yeah. Yeah. And that's because as in the same way

00:25:56.040 that like if you're in Scientology, anyone who even questions Scientology, what are they called again?

00:26:00.280 What's the word for them? Subversive persons is the term. I think it sounds surprisingly corporate.

00:26:05.440 Yeah. Yeah. You're not allowed to. Like problematic individuals. Hold on. You're not allowed to in any

00:26:10.240 way. And this makes sense if this is more like a religion than like an actual, and it is that as

00:26:16.380 we've argued in our episode, has a cult evolved under the trans movement? And I think that one kind 0.92

00:26:20.920 of has. So the second one here is puberty blockers are seen as perfectly safe for cis children who have

00:26:26.680 precocious puberty. So they shouldn't be any different for trans children. This is just 1.00

00:26:30.880 comical. Cis children who are using them to delay precocious puberty are undergoing puberty at a time 0.98

00:26:36.300 when they shouldn't be undergoing puberty. Trans children are undergoing puberty when they shouldn't 1.00

00:26:41.360 be undergoing puberty. Basically, cis children are using this so that their puberty happens as it 0.77

00:26:45.340 normally happens. Trans individuals are using this to attempt to turn off puberty and then attempt to 1.00

00:26:49.900 restart it later, which we know just doesn't work. You do not get your full puberty if you would try to

00:26:56.520 start it later. That's what a lot of, when I like go over the data, that's what it seems to indicate.

00:27:00.940 So this is a really bad point, which I think is great that we're seeing how bad the points against

00:27:05.700 this are, because to me, when I want to know, should I take something seriously? I should look

00:27:09.920 at the people who are arguing against it and see how strong their arguments are. The third one is,

00:27:14.300 if any antidepressant was successful at improving mental health slash suicidality as blockers slash

00:27:19.800 HTRR for trans people, it would be considered a miracle drug. Again, does anyone have any numbers to back this up? 1.00

00:27:25.780 What?

00:27:27.120 Numbers don't back this up.

00:27:30.160 Wow.

00:27:31.180 There's positions they want to be true and then they look for numbers, right? The final point is,

00:27:36.360 wait times for accessing this healthcare are so high that there have been several people dying of

00:27:40.840 suicide before they reach the end of the waiting list. And there is currently functionally almost

00:27:45.000 no NHS care for trans people who need to access it. And this is just one of those things where we

00:27:50.140 already know that the suicidality within this group is really high regardless, even after they get

00:27:54.780 gender affirming care. I'm not going to, I think it's really twisted to consider everyone in this 1.00

00:28:00.060 pipeline who ends up committing suicide as killed by the treatment. I would say that if we're going

00:28:05.700 to do that, then we should count as everyone who has transitioned and then commit suicide as being 1.00

00:28:10.040 killed by transition. It's not going to look good for the trans community. 1.00

00:28:12.820 No one mentions that. No.

00:28:15.100 Yeah. And here is the key argument that you see used against it, this report. And I'm going to quote

00:28:21.780 here. Some have focused on the report's omission of evidence, including studies around puberty

00:28:26.680 blockers that have not used control groups. People have argued that control groups in these studies

00:28:31.220 would be impossible because people would know if they'd been assigned a placebo or not a placebo.

00:28:36.320 Yeah. And here you see a lot of people complaining just over and over again, complaining about you

00:28:44.240 cannot block all the studies that didn't use blind control groups because you can't really use blind

00:28:49.180 control groups here. Now I am going to post on the page over the screen here so people can see

00:28:55.400 highlighted in the report, why she threw out these studies. Because you're being lied to if you believe

00:29:05.000 they were thrown out because they didn't have a blind control group. The specific line that was used

00:29:14.600 over and over again was lack of blinding and no control group. This is critical. These are two different

00:29:29.240 things. They both did not have blinding and did not have a control group. Now I want to be clear

00:29:37.640 because a lot of people, my background's in medical research, a lot of people here might not understand

00:29:41.780 how freaking horrific it is if you had no control group. Okay. You don't need to like assign people

00:29:51.240 placebo meds or something like that and blind them to put them in a control group. What you need to do,

00:29:55.940 for example, if I'm looking at rates of suicidality, what I would do is I would contrast people who

00:30:01.380 didn't like just totally normal members of the population with individuals who are undergoing

00:30:06.540 this kind of trans care, right? Like people undergoing this treatment and to the earlier

00:30:10.080 point, those who are stuck on the wait list. Yeah. And I can get to the wait list. Perfect control

00:30:15.020 group. Perfect control group stuck on the wait list. Very easy to do. They're not using this,

00:30:19.960 right? So the goal is to get the control group as close to the population that you're doing as

00:30:24.300 possible, but they don't have to be exactly like the population. They can be quite different

00:30:28.380 to have a no control group at all. You're basically not even trying for real data at that point. You

00:30:34.320 are just trying to affirm a position. And this is what really gets me is this lie that she was

00:30:41.920 discarding studies because they didn't have a blind control group. She was discarding studies 0.98

00:30:45.760 because they didn't have any control group at all, which is a basic thing in most medical research.

00:30:51.500 Okay. And this is, and people were like, with some cancer patients, you wouldn't have a control

00:30:58.240 group with like chemo or something like that. And it's like, yeah, but this isn't like that.

00:31:02.580 There are comparable groups that you wouldn't be using. Yeah. There are lotteries, there are wait

00:31:07.000 lists, there are, yeah, it's, there are those who can financially afford it and those who can't,

00:31:11.380 all sorts of things. What this says to me, like my big takeaway from this is because the

00:31:17.260 criticisms of the cast report were so weak. She engaged with naughty people so we cannot

00:31:22.300 like think about her as human anymore. And that is what cults do. If you talk to people

00:31:26.780 who are critical of the cult, they will say, we just can't trust anything you're saying anymore. 0.75

00:31:30.760 That is a just complete nonsense. This complaining about her throwing out studies that were poorly

00:31:35.860 conducted, again, just complete nonsense. And they'll be like, she included studies that didn't

00:31:40.540 use blind controls. And it's like, no, they still had controls. That was what the big mistake was.

00:31:47.600 You're including this blind word, which wasn't the critical word. So now we're going to go to one

00:31:54.140 final thing that you haven't really looked into yet. Actually, did you have any other things you

00:31:57.420 wanted to say from like, you went over the block and reported on this and everything?

00:32:00.980 I think the important thing is pointing out that this isn't because she's found any particular

00:32:06.960 outcome. It's a lot of it's just the research is so bad. While there isn't a lot of information

00:32:12.240 about it being very, oh, definitely you're going to die if you go through this, but also definitely

00:32:17.400 going through this isn't going to help you. I think the important thing is in the past and what may be

00:32:22.380 changing now and what gives me a lot of hope is if you are a therapist or you are a doctor and

00:32:27.660 someone sends you their child and their child appears to have some form of gender dysphoria,

00:32:31.920 the responsible thing for you to do and what you would do to avoid any like form of

00:32:38.260 liability is to just send them to a gender transition or a gender treatment clinic.

00:32:44.120 Just refer them to that. This is off my plate. There's no, I don't know what to do. The only

00:32:49.320 evidence out there that's being shouted from the hilltops is cherry picked studies saying your child

00:32:54.680 is going to die if you don't do this. So people from a sort of media standpoint and from a public

00:33:01.040 discourse standpoint, doctors and clinicians and therapists were forced to throw people into this

00:33:06.240 pipeline, which as you point out, then is a very slippery slope. You can't get out of it.

00:33:10.100 A Chinese finger trap. So now with the cast report, what makes me so hopeful is doctors, therapists, 1.00

00:33:16.400 et cetera, have something else to point to, to say, no, this is not necessarily the best pathway.

00:33:23.800 I'm not being necessarily responsible by telling you to sit this out, find some other interventions,

00:33:31.980 work on self-confidence, et cetera, which is really encouraging.

00:33:36.140 Yeah. And now we're going to get to the last study here, which I find really interesting. And I don't

00:33:40.400 think that you had heard about this. There's not a study. It's a major event. So there was a leak of

00:33:44.600 files from an organization called the World's Professional Association for Transgender Health,

00:33:48.960 W-P-A-A-T-H or WPATH, I guess is how I read it.

00:33:54.620 Yeah. WPATH. Yeah. That's how they go. WPATH.

00:33:57.900 Yeah. And you heard about this?

00:33:59.380 Yeah. When Blockton reported, because I love them, they talk about the WPATH files a lot. Yeah.

00:34:03.520 Oh, they do. Okay. This was really interesting. So this organization has, you know how I mentioned

00:34:08.540 that there was like an echo chamber that a lot of countries were using for their use,

00:34:12.460 gender affirming care.

00:34:13.720 Yeah. That people just kept referring to the same, like other studies and no one actually,

00:34:20.620 when making claims about this is the best way to go, everyone agrees that this is true,

00:34:24.400 was actually referring to real profoundly robust research.

00:34:29.540 Yeah. It was coming from this organization. And we began to, through these leaks, get an

00:34:34.860 understanding of how individuals within this organization really saw what they were doing.

00:34:38.980 And the biggest sort of thing that came out of the WPATH files was really two things. And we'll get

00:34:45.420 into some specific quotes around this, but the first being that they understood that many of the kids

00:34:54.120 could not make an informed consent to what they were doing.

00:34:58.820 What? Wow. What indicates that? That's pretty damning.

00:35:02.460 Oh, here, I'll give you some quotes then.

00:35:03.820 Yeah.

00:35:04.300 I think the thing you have to remember about kids is we're often explaining these sorts of

00:35:09.100 things to people who haven't had biology in high school yet. He says, discussing the potential of

00:35:14.220 loss of fertility and options to preserve fertility with a 14-year-old is, quote, always good in theory,

00:35:19.220 end quote, he said in the video, because many will go on to cross-sex hormones that will leave them

00:35:23.980 sterile. But, quote, I know I'm talking to a blank wall, end quote, he says, end quote. And the same would

00:35:30.960 happen for a cisgender kid, right? They'd be like, ew, kids, babies, gross, end quote. 1.00

00:35:35.500 Quote, we try to talk about it, but most of these kids are nowhere in any kind of a brain space,

00:35:41.460 really, to talk about it in a serious way, end quote. And he adds, quote, I, that's always bothered me,

00:35:48.560 but we still want the kids to be happy. Happier in the moment, right?

00:35:52.100 Happier in the moment. Happier for now. Damned in the future.

00:35:57.420 Why are you a doctor? This is like the Hayes movie, where it's like it makes them happier in 0.99

00:36:02.640 the moment to tell them that overeating isn't going to make them unhappy in the long term or

00:36:06.600 cause long-term negative bodily repercussions in the long term or be unhealthy. So you just don't

00:36:11.620 tell them that. That's why it's able to tell people that taking in far more calories than you

00:36:17.780 burn is unhealthy for you because it makes them happier in the moment to not tell them that.

00:36:22.280 And this is what we talk about when we talk about this virus or this form of engaging with this.

00:36:26.760 No, you're a doctor. And you are saying right now, I understand that children cannot make an

00:36:34.420 informed consent to the surgeries that we are allowing them to consent to, the treatments that

00:36:39.580 we are allowing them to consent to. And they will have major repercussions later in their life,

00:36:43.960 specifically sterility and never being able to orgasm again, or never being able to experience

00:36:50.000 an orgasm at all. They don't know what these things are. They can't understand these things.

00:36:55.220 And as we talk about within prenatalism, many people develop their identities when they're young.

00:36:59.300 So they don't understand that if they found kids gross when they were a teenager, that doesn't mean

00:37:03.520 they're going to find them gross as an adult. And it is natural for young teens around this age for

00:37:08.460 biological reasons to have an instant like gross young kids. I don't want to be around that. 0.71

00:37:13.040 Beyond that too, I think even if like, even if a young teen can comprehend that as an adult,

00:37:18.320 they're going to want something different, there is a rebellious streak in many. And I felt this

00:37:22.960 myself as a teen that would take away the ability of that person in the future to have that choice.

00:37:32.480 I hate the idea so much now that I'm going to make sure that my future self doesn't have the ability

00:37:37.780 to do it when they try to. Like someone who's trying to get rid of eating sweets decides that

00:37:42.820 they're going to make sure they never have sweets in their house in the future. So their future self

00:37:45.980 that wants sweets can't even get them. So I think even when they can comprehend, even when they know

00:37:51.120 the biological consequences, they, in their current state of mind may still choose intentionally

00:37:56.580 to override the wishes of their future self.

00:38:00.100 Yeah. And we know that kids have poor self-control. This is why we don't generally allow kids to sign

00:38:07.120 lifelong contracts and stuff like this.

00:38:09.200 Yeah. They can't join the military. You can't sell organs.

00:38:12.920 It is wild. It is wild, but, but it gets worse than that. They are showing how little the kids

00:38:19.140 understand from some of these quotes that you have here. Right.

00:38:21.980 I guess what's wild to me is that they acknowledge that these things are damaging.

00:38:27.100 And this is where I'd say that I think the far, like the far anti-trans movement goes a little

00:38:31.080 far with this stuff and maybe reading a little too much into it, but I'm going to read another quote

00:38:34.500 here. All right. One clinician had written about a number of her patients, quote, they seem to feel

00:38:41.140 that they should be allowed to switch back and forth merely at their requests. I'm not comfortable with

00:38:45.780 this at this point. We need to be better at understanding how to handle this type of situation,

00:38:50.000 end quote. Now that an individual, they had started transitioning, thought that this was

00:38:55.260 something that you could just switch whenever you wanted to really easily. What that shows to me is

00:39:01.120 that this individual didn't understand what they were committing to or how permanent it was at all.

00:39:08.260 And this again shows why people don't think that young people should be allowed to consent to them.

00:39:12.800 Well, this is again, another reason why this is so important to put off as long as possible,

00:39:17.620 because in the future, I have plenty of confidence that people will be able to seamlessly switch

00:39:23.340 whenever they want to. Maybe not in our lifetime, but it'll happen, but not now.

00:39:28.180 And they show some really concerns about this. One clinician wrote, quote,

00:39:32.780 kids can't fully understand what they're agreeing to, end quote. Sorry. Kids can't understand what

00:39:37.880 they're agreeing to. We can never do this. And it's abuse to do it. Even when a parent or doctor are on

00:39:45.600 board, that it is the right thing for the child. Who is this? Anyway, I'll look at this later.

00:39:51.720 So here, I want to note something right here that is really interesting. But Bowers has also said

00:39:57.140 that acknowledging detransition exists, quote, even to a minor extent is considered off limits

00:40:02.340 for many in our community. I do see talk of the phenomenon as distracting from the major challenges

00:40:09.000 we face, end quote. There is a mission within the transitioning community and within the medical

00:40:13.880 community around this to just pretend that detransitioners don't exist. And this is another 1.00

00:40:18.180 big problem, right? Because this is a very big and growing movement that it seems like if somebody

00:40:23.320 was forming informed consent and they had been given both sides, they would know this. And this is a

00:40:29.360 big problem because when I look at transforms and they're attacking detransitioners, they're like, 1.00

00:40:34.620 look, didn't you read the back of the like pill bottle? Weren't you told about everything that

00:40:39.340 could go wrong? Like, why are you out there complaining now and complaining about our community now?

00:40:43.080 And the answer is because they were transitioned at 11 and they obviously didn't understand.

00:40:49.260 And doctors giving them the transition knew that they didn't understand. And it was well known among

00:40:54.800 the people who are writing the national guidelines, like in countries like Canada, that the people who

00:40:59.740 are transitioning didn't understand. So you don't get to come out here. You cannot both be pro the 1.00

00:41:04.120 transitioning of children and say that they shouldn't have the right to say, I didn't fully

00:41:09.020 understand this. Now, one of the particularly damaging things that came out was this was many

00:41:14.120 cases of people who ended up getting cancer because of this. Whoa, whoa, whoa, why didn't wait? What

00:41:19.260 correlates with cancer? Is it the estrogen justice or what? Yes, if male to female correlates with cancer,

00:41:26.680 which is actually really interesting because there was one study done recently that shows to

00:41:30.240 female to male might actually lower rates of cancer in individuals because you don't have the 1.00

00:41:34.800 mammary tissue anymore or the uterus sometimes. Two of them are common locations that females get 1.00

00:41:40.160 cancer. But I'm going to quote here. In one, a doctor writes about a 16-year-old patient who

00:41:45.480 developed two benign liver tumors after several years of taking birth control and one year of

00:41:50.380 gender-reforming testosterone. In another, a different doctor recalled a colleague who died of liver cancer

00:41:54.980 after nearly a decade of taking testosterone. That doctor wrote that, quote,

00:41:58.900 to the best of my knowledge, the cancer was linked to the hormone treatment, end quote.

00:42:03.760 The doctor was noted that they didn't have any other details because the patient had died.

00:42:09.380 That's so interesting that, yeah, this isn't discussed, whereas people going through IVF or

00:42:13.280 people concerned about IVF often bring up concerns about cancer because they're like, oh gosh, if I take

00:42:17.700 even for a freaking month extra estrogen, I'm going to get more cancer. And yet that like that. So I also,

00:42:24.040 I don't think it's poorly known that this is a risk because if people are concerned about one month.

00:42:31.800 Fringe risk and it is not a complete fringe risk. It's a known right effect of these drugs taken over

00:42:38.260 short periods of time. And that's the thing that you're pointing out here, which is really important

00:42:41.420 to note, is that individuals know they're like, oh, but this has been used in other treatments for a

00:42:47.280 long time. Yeah, but people worry about those other treatments. They worry about it in the other

00:42:52.120 treatments and the use of it is extremely limited in terms of time windows. And they're like, oh,

00:42:59.160 but like hormonal therapy has been used in birth control for a long time. And if those are different

00:43:04.560 hormones at different levels and then the ones that are causing cancer in these individuals,

00:43:09.920 so this doesn't matter. But I will also say that to an extent, these leaks have been blown out of

00:43:13.860 proportion. Really as bad as the leaks could have been, this is pretty minor to me. It was in how

00:43:19.600 extreme some of these communities get. And it does show that the doctors do actually have some level

00:43:24.660 of self-reflection and concern about what's happening and knowledge that kids can't really

00:43:29.160 consent. They just have fears around acknowledging that was in their community, which I think is

00:43:35.260 something that like anyone who is looking at this situation with any level of sanity already knew was

00:43:41.140 a phenomenon. Yeah. So between these three things, my question is now, what has this changed for you

00:43:50.280 in terms of your perspective of what's going on? And do you think that the battle is genuinely tipping

00:43:55.400 against the transitioning children activists?

00:43:58.940 I think it, yeah, already things, programs for youth gender transition were being defunded, criticized,

00:44:09.260 shut down. I think youth gender clinics are going to be a thing of the past very soon. And my hope

00:44:18.180 is that this means that transitioning, like those who are trans activists and who do, to your earlier

00:44:24.020 point, really care about that 2% that really does have persistent gender dysphoria and that really

00:44:29.720 does need and want to transition, that it gets them to focus on instead identifying those people,

00:44:37.140 validating their concerns and preparing that, like giving them something to do in the interim while they

00:44:42.080 wait until they are old enough to make that transition safely, we'll say after age 25. I think that

00:44:48.960 would be such an amazing change. Oh yeah, it would be great. If you could get better studies on

00:44:53.660 that would be fantastic. And I think that the direction that the trans community and trans activists

00:44:59.080 should go from this. For me, the major thing that's shifted about this is one, it's a shift in the public

00:45:05.200 narrative. It is now, and J.K. Rowling with all her stuff, she recently like absolutely went after

00:45:10.360 someone. They're like, now that it's okay to say the things that I've risked my career saying for a long

00:45:14.280 time, that many individuals lost their career for saying, you now are jumping on the bandwagon with this.

00:45:18.960 When you didn't stand up for this, when you could actually really suffer for this. And the other

00:45:24.040 big thing was in trans news that's happened is this law in Scotland, right? This hate crime law 0.57

00:45:27.700 and J.K. Rowling standing up against it and setting precedent. In a way that nullified it. Yeah.

00:45:33.660 Yeah. And I think that she's right. We have to remember the things that we're saying now that are

00:45:39.420 actually like not that spicy anymore, that transitioning kids is probably not a good idea, 1.00

00:45:44.640 are things that individuals, even trans individuals have lost their careers for saying,

00:45:49.580 like Buck Angel, the original trans activist who really brought the community into the mainstream

00:45:54.760 and then was completely isolated from the community from saying that kids shouldn't be allowed to

00:45:59.300 transition. That was, or that we should have some skepticism around this. That was to me, really

00:46:04.700 heartbreaking to see how many people in the left, even when they change their mainstream position on

00:46:09.240 this. When they're like, oh, we were wrong about that whole transitioning kids thing. They will never 1.00

00:46:13.180 rehabilitate the people that they have excommunicated or that they have labeled as heretics.

00:46:20.520 They will never really put up the law, the wall of people we attacked for things we now accept as

00:46:25.680 common knowledge.

00:46:27.000 I think it goes both ways. I don't think Buck Angel is going to embrace them after everything that

00:46:31.020 they've done.

00:46:32.060 I think he's like a very understanding person. So I think that this is, it's tragic that that

00:46:37.800 has happened. But the other thing, the big thing for me that changes is I now believe that the

00:46:43.400 evidence states, and I think that if I was a trans activist and I was trying to help the trans

00:46:46.720 community, I think the core thing that needs to change now is the understanding that most teens

00:46:53.080 and preteens who are not comfortable with their gender are not trans. They're just going to grow out 0.99

00:46:59.540 of this. The vast majority of preteens who are not comfortable with their gender are not trans.

00:47:05.420 And so now the question is, how do you sort out of the people who aren't comfortable with their

00:47:09.480 gender, which should undergo further treatment and which shouldn't? Where the previous go-to thing

00:47:17.960 within the trans community is if you are not comfortable with your gender, you are trans and

00:47:23.080 you should be treated as trans and you should immediately put on a gender affirming pipeline.

00:47:26.680 You should immediately be put on puberty blockers to give you more time to think.

00:47:29.540 And what this research just shows is they don't give you more time to think. You're basically

00:47:32.460 locking in a decision. The moment you go into gender affirming care, you go to a psychologist

00:47:37.640 that is gender affirming, or you undergo puberty blockers.

00:47:41.600 And what I would take in a hot second is if there was just, if we nuked youth medicalization,

00:47:47.500 if it was, all right, we're going to change your pronouns and now you're going to dress differently

00:47:50.880 and you're going to have this different, fine. Because at least that enables people

00:47:55.540 to maintain optionality until they're fully myelinated, until they're in their twenties

00:48:00.700 and they can decide. If it's just, if it becomes the equivalent of going goth for a few years

00:48:05.660 and being different, I'm super happy with that.

00:48:08.940 The most...

00:48:09.800 Even when I was a kid, I wore like a girl pants and stuff like that in like the goth days

00:48:14.620 where you'd get these super tight, like hot puppet pants and stuff.

00:48:17.420 And that was like a...

00:48:18.200 That's fine.

00:48:18.780 It was the style at the time for young men.

00:48:21.440 So I tied an onion to my belt, which was the style at the time.

00:48:25.600 You were like an extra rebellious young guy or whatever.

00:48:28.100 And it's one of those things where it's totally cool.

00:48:32.180 If my kids were like, okay, I'm going to do dresses now or something like that.

00:48:35.440 And that was like the rebellious style at the time.

00:48:37.380 I think we need to differentiate developing your identity in contrast to mainstream social

00:48:44.000 mores and medicalization. 0.92

00:48:46.300 And these two things have unfortunately been conflated due to the trans movement, not allowing

00:48:52.100 you to say, hey, that teenager who is doing this rebellious thing in terms of their identity,

00:48:57.920 that's probably not a medical issue.

00:48:59.380 That's probably just being a teenager.

00:49:01.300 And we need to respect them while also telling them tattoos are bad.

00:49:05.360 They're permanent.

00:49:05.880 You probably shouldn't be going out and doing that.

00:49:07.340 Even if it is a medical issue, I think the important thing that we've realized now is

00:49:11.000 that it's a medical issue that will pass for the majority of people.

00:49:16.200 And that really does really ought to be addressed for a very small minority of people.

00:49:20.020 And we cannot make a medical decision until someone's in their mid-20s.

00:49:24.860 That's an important thing too.

00:49:26.540 So that's so comforting.

00:49:27.660 This is just great news.

00:49:29.020 This is wonderful.

00:49:29.780 It's fantastic.

00:49:30.640 You don't know how far the pendulum is going to swing in the other direction yet.

00:49:33.560 It's been swinging and it could swing far.

00:49:37.440 What do you expect to happen?

00:49:39.340 We could see a general pushback on transness in general.

00:49:43.480 Oh, like even trans identities? 1.00

00:49:45.900 Yeah, I can see, for example, if we're talking about an extremely hard pushback, and I can see

00:49:50.940 this being very realistic, laws being pushed in conservative states that disallow trans people

00:49:56.120 from teaching kids, because they've just basically found that if you don't lean into it at all,

00:50:00.540 it typically passes, especially for men.

00:50:03.640 Yeah.

00:50:04.120 Keep in mind, the other thing that I noted here is engagement with the LGBTQ community.

00:50:08.960 Oh, it's like a contagion.

00:50:10.320 It could be correlated with this persisting of your gender dissatisfaction.

00:50:15.800 Yeah.

00:50:16.200 So disallowing a young person who seems at risk of this from engaging with other LGBT 0.99

00:50:21.840 individuals appears to be one of the best ways to prevent them from falling into this

00:50:25.920 group.

00:50:26.460 Oh boy.

00:50:26.820 Which can lead to a lot of negative action, even among well-meaning parents.

00:50:31.560 Yeah.

00:50:32.100 Or even among like perfectly normal, non-extreme, non-brainwashy people who just happen to be

00:50:39.620 gay. 0.93

00:50:40.420 Thinking about this was my kids, right? 0.80

00:50:42.060 Is it just dangerous, even if they are same-sex attracted, to allow them to engage with that 1.00

00:50:45.880 community so long as that community is overly friendly with the trans community?

00:50:50.360 I don't know.

00:50:50.800 I think every community has to be approached on a case-by-case basis.

00:50:55.260 And if you see that, I think the key, and this goes back to what you always talk about

00:50:59.960 with dominance hierarchies within a community, you have to look at what the virtue spiral

00:51:05.000 of that community is going to turn into.

00:51:07.100 Every community that's tightly knit is going to have a virtue spiral.

00:51:10.520 You have to figure out what that virtue spiral is going to be.

00:51:13.840 Like, I guess in the pernadalist community, a virtue of spiral is probably someone going 0.99

00:51:17.440 crazy hard in on kids and telling everyone they should have kids and being really annoying

00:51:22.120 and obnoxious about it or whatever it might be.

00:51:25.200 But you have to be, you have to know what that is.

00:51:27.380 So if you're-

00:51:28.760 Hold on.

00:51:29.320 There's two, most communities are actually not that at risk of virtue spiraling.

00:51:33.080 Really?

00:51:33.500 What makes you say that?

00:51:34.300 The thing that's for virtue spiraling in a community is-

00:51:37.680 Isolation?

00:51:38.360 There aren't protected classes.

00:51:41.000 As soon as you have a protected class, some thing that you can attempt to maximize that

00:51:45.920 you cannot be attacked for attempting to maximize.

00:51:48.420 So for example, within conservative circles, this might be like dedication to Trump, right?

00:51:52.680 Within certain Trumpist circles, you cannot be criticized for being overly anti-immigration

00:51:57.660 or overly anti-Trump or overly-

00:52:00.480 And because of that, you get these virtue spirals where individuals will be like, you

00:52:04.900 guys aren't conservative at all in your beliefs.

00:52:06.680 And I'm like, I think you might just be in a community that's like virtue spiraling because

00:52:10.860 actually we very much are for our generation.

00:52:14.000 When you look at any mainstream statistics about population belief systems and stuff

00:52:18.140 like that, you have just surrounded yourself with a virtue spiral until you don't know

00:52:21.400 this.

00:52:21.560 So you do get this in the right, but the, and within the left, if you can't attack trans 1.00

00:52:25.920 community, if you can't attack people who see psychologists, these are seen as protected

00:52:29.720 classes.

00:52:30.060 You're going to get virtue spirals there of dedication, of intenseness.

00:52:33.440 As soon as you remove the protected class concept, you remove the risk of virtue spirals.

00:52:38.160 Within the prenatalist community, we haven't really seen any virtue spirals because there

00:52:41.240 is no protected class individuals who have a lot of kids.

00:52:44.460 We are still very critical of like their child rearing practices, stuff like that.

00:52:48.020 And across the community, there is not like when extremes can be criticized within a community,

00:52:54.560 that community is safe from virtue cycles or sorry, sorry, virtue spirals.

00:52:58.800 And then when extremes are not ever criticized within a community, that is when it goes crazy.

00:53:03.560 That's when you have Salem, which trials, that's when you have goths doing insane things 1.00

00:53:09.120 to their bodies, that's when all this happens.

00:53:11.140 Exactly.

00:53:12.400 Okay.

00:53:12.800 Then that's what we do with our kids.

00:53:14.500 If we, because again, as we've discovered with so many LGBTQIA or poly or rationalist or 1.00

00:53:21.180 whatever communities out there, any niche community of the same like general name, there are some

00:53:27.720 which are super cool and there are some which are super toxic.

00:53:31.360 So all we have to do is determine whether or not they criticize extremism.

00:53:36.180 And if they do, it's fine if our kids hang out with them, like, I think this is such

00:53:41.280 an important concept.

00:53:41.960 It might even be worth building a holiday around it.

00:53:44.040 Don't engage with communities that have protected classes, whether those communities are on the

00:53:48.220 right or the left or anything else, recognize the danger of this concept of a protected class

00:53:52.980 and stay away from it.

00:53:53.940 Or communities that don't criticize extremism.

00:53:56.820 Yeah.

00:53:57.080 How we can build that into a holiday?

00:53:58.460 I don't know yet, but I'll think about it.

00:54:01.600 Fun.

00:54:02.360 Yeah.

00:54:02.740 People can weigh in the comments too.

00:54:04.220 How can this be turned into something cute, photographable?

00:54:07.960 I think the extremism is different from the protected class concept.

00:54:11.560 And I would really focus on the protected class concept because I think it's much more

00:54:14.280 defensive than the extremism concept, which is to say you can be extreme in beliefs, but

00:54:19.280 there are certain beliefs where you're like, you just cannot criticize this group.

00:54:22.620 Whenever you get that, that's the extremism.

00:54:26.500 I see.

00:54:27.240 I see.

00:54:27.600 Like in, in, still in many conservative circles, and this is something that we're seeing dividing

00:54:33.900 the Republican party and causing a lot of problems.

00:54:36.320 There is no level of extremism regarding restricting abortion access that people get criticized for.

00:54:44.160 I actually had this guy call me out of the blue, call me as a candidate out of the blue

00:54:48.620 and just start yelling at me like a madman about abortion. 0.78

00:54:55.000 So I think that like,

00:54:56.340 Did he just want you to know?

00:54:58.880 He was like, I just want to know your positions on this.

00:55:01.040 I'm like, okay, fine.

00:55:01.760 Ask away. 0.83

00:55:02.260 I'll tell you my positions on whatever you want.

00:55:04.440 And I'll be perfectly honest.

00:55:05.380 And he asked, what's your position on abortion?

00:55:07.140 And I said, like, obviously America pretty much agrees on this moderate approach to abortion

00:55:13.180 before this period, more freedom.

00:55:14.940 More restrictive than the current stuff in our state.

00:55:17.520 And I said that, yes.

00:55:18.680 But he's, no, it, life begins at conception and blah, blah, blah.

00:55:22.100 And I'm like, yeah, that is your belief system.

00:55:24.400 You are Catholic.

00:55:25.620 I understand that.

00:55:26.480 That's totally acceptable.

00:55:27.540 Although the Catholics didn't always view it that way.

00:55:30.040 So let's be honest here, but you have no more right to impose that on other people

00:55:36.120 outside the Catholic culture than other cultures have the right to impose transition,

00:55:41.260 like youth gender transition on your children.

00:55:43.700 And he's, no, God said this.

00:55:46.100 And therefore I'm telling you to do that.

00:55:48.400 And I hung up on him because he wouldn't stop talking.

00:55:51.620 But that's one of those things where he's never been criticized for that view.

00:55:56.680 Because I also told him, I'm like, you can have that view.

00:55:58.680 And that's, that is 100% legitimate.

00:56:00.420 I too am not really comfortable with abortion,

00:56:02.500 but you will not see your party get elected if you maintain a hard line stance like that,

00:56:09.520 because you are not in the majority.

00:56:11.340 And then you will not get the further restrictions on abortion that are realistic to impose.

00:56:15.800 Exactly.

00:56:16.300 And he, and that's what I said to him.

00:56:17.580 Like, there's no way that you're going to get anywhere close to where you want to be

00:56:20.140 with that current stance.

00:56:21.780 And it's, he was incapable of seeing that.

00:56:24.820 And so that, that is a really good example of a protected status, right?

00:56:27.520 He would never be questioned for that by most people.

00:56:31.120 And also he has this attitude of, if you do question me,

00:56:34.080 I'm going to immediately shut you down.

00:56:35.960 So I guess that's what we're talking about when it comes to protected status, right?

00:56:39.300 Yeah.

00:56:40.120 Oh, I'm so mad at him.

00:56:41.840 I love you, Simone.

00:56:42.880 You are the best.

00:56:43.880 And I appreciate your anger as a citizen of this country.

00:56:47.600 This is what I get for answering unknown calls.

00:56:50.020 I should be answering potential constituent calls. 1.00

00:56:52.840 But when you're an idiot like that, I love you pick up and you're like, fuck off. 1.00

00:56:58.060 We need to get, we need to get, that needs to go viral. 1.00

00:57:01.080 It's like you telling some constituent.

00:57:02.720 Yeah. 1.00

00:57:02.960 Just people get to call into me as a political candidate and I'm like, fuck you. 1.00

00:57:09.480 I love you. 1.00

Based Camp - April 22, 2024

2024： Trans Pendulum in Retrograde (The Study, The Leaks, & The Cass Report)

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