Election Betting： Why Gamblers Keep Beating Pollsters with Maxim Lott
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode, we have a special guest on the show to talk about why the betting odds on the 2020 Democratic primary are not as accurate as they should be and why they are the most accurate predictor of who s going to win an election cycle.
Transcript
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yeah i'm excited for this too i really appreciate your natalism work that you guys do so well and
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we really appreciate the work you do man you're on at a perfect time like we're probably going to
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run your interviews with us like usually months for us to run these now we're like oh we got it
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like yeah we got to run over with all this election stuff that's going on this is wild
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yeah you had you had disagreed with the betting odds recently yes yes i had a post about why
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biden won't drop out all this good reasoning but the betting odds said he would and he did
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so the lesson is to listen to the betting odds not any one analyst oh i'd love to hear why you
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thought he wouldn't drop out yeah you know i thought it wasn't in his interest if he wanted
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to he could have gone to the convention and got the nomination yes thank you that's that's what i kept
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telling everyone i was like he's like all the way up through saturday it was like he's not going to
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drop out no one can technically force him to drop out and he's no reason to want to do why would he
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do it no one can stop him he's not going to drop out so i'm with you and you also have the problem
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that jill hates camilla and this is like publicly and if she's making the decisions for biden she
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definitely wouldn't want him to drop out if she was a presumptive nominee yeah and it seemed like
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there was no way for them to truly force him out either but i think i underestimated how much kind of
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soft power there is in the democratic party with obama and pelosi really running the show
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like i don't know man they tried everything i feel like they literally tried everything like people
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drove out to his house you know george clooney like just they threw everything at him and i think
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maybe in the end because donations started drying up that was it you know just like yeah i think it was
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probably donors that got him out so you'd think if you can make it to the convention the donors would
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who else are they going to donate yeah they don't like trump so yes but clearly he felt the pressure
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and he had covid and a lot of things conspired and he dropped out yeah the betters were not surprised
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they had this at like 70 a couple days before he dropped out wow they were right i i lost money
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betting on the other side but yeah he got covid we'll see if there was any you know there was a
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lot of people interested in something like that happening to him i was i was joking there was a
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thing about trump's assassination and people were like well you know republicans would be cheering too
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if biden was assassinated and i was like not a single republican i have ever met would be cheering
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if biden was assassinated they love it's a disappointing development for republicans that biden is no longer
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running they were thrilled with biden running yeah yeah now the polls have kamala harris up by like
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maybe or losing by one point less than biden was losing by so we'll see how that goes for them the
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betting odds yeah the betting odds it's interesting because you can look at these conditional odds so you
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say if this person's nominated what are their odds of winning and biden's odds were always around 30
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percent kamala harris's were around 37 so she's slightly more electable but not much more electable
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okay so we have been talking generally right now i'm going to introduce you to anyone who is wondering
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why the election betting on numbers are a bit off in this it is because this was filmed around a week
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ago and so sorry about that it just took me a while to process it but so people who don't know
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maxim lot i grew up on your stuff every election cycle loading what's the url here election betting
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odds.com and then you had your own website because it is historically speaking the most accurate
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predictor of who's going to win an election cycle and i'd love it if you could talk a little bit about
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why it's such an accurate predictor of who's going to win and and and its advantages over traditional
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polling yeah absolutely and great to be here with you guys i love your natalism work the so i created
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the site in 2015 and we've tracked hundreds of races since then and you can graph it out to see how
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accurate it is and what we find is that in general if the markets say there's a 20 chance that someone's
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going to win a race that actually happens about 20 of the time so it's not exactly perfect you can see
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the lines they almost match up but basically you can go to electionbettingodds.com click
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track record and it'll show you this and it's been very accurate it's the single best predictor if you
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just want tell me quickly who's going to win this is the best thing to go to so you're sort of the
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granddaddy of betting odds stuff and the field has undergone we met you at manifest i think an enormous
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evolution in the past probably decade or so can you talk a little bit about how much how prediction
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markets have evolved over the course of your life sure and i don't know if it's quite accurate to say
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i'm the granddaddy you know there are people like robin hampson who might fit that role better
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yeah he goes to all the stuff i guess for the general you were my first i got it yeah you made it
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accessible in a topic that i was passionate about right for for popularizing it i think election
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betting odds got more than 25 million unique views so hopefully that's made a difference
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and yeah so prediction markets it has changed a lot over the years i first started looking at these in
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2007 and at that time there was one big site it was based in ireland called intrade.com and it was
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great and people traded there and they accurately predicted things they were shut down mostly by
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the u.s government first their founder died climbing mount everest which is tragic but then the government
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said hey you're taking american customers and you're not registered with our government so they sued them
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and they shut down immediately after that so there were a couple years then where there was really
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almost no prediction markets the best thing was betfair which was this uk-based place where people
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bet 99 of it people are betting on sports there and it's legal there yeah they had this one percent
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yeah where they were betting on elections and it was annoying for me as a reporter because we would
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want to report on these odds on the stossel show on fox news and they the betfair site because it's these
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english gamblers there the odds are really hard to read it's like you know 30 over 4.5
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so i'd have to manually convert all these in excel sheet to like 55 and then eventually i figured oh
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let's i can automate this and then i can put it on a website so that's how election betting started and
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since then there have been a lot more entrance into the market like yeah yeah you were at fox you said yeah
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yeah fox news i was working for john stossel so he's a big prediction market guy too and helped
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popularize the site okay and so then what happened so your site goes live because now you know there's
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whole conferences around betting odds and stuff like that and there's like different ways of
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measuring them than there were historically because it's not like sports betting like it was historically
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now it's like status hierarchy games interesting yeah well there people are betting on all sorts of things
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now you know people are betting on the oscars on foreign elections yeah manifold has a lot of creative
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markets but yeah it's really a blooming area you you had well and you were talking about conditional
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markets as well where do you see those coming up yeah so on our site what we do we create we use the
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implied odds so if you have people betting on the nomination and on who's gonna win you can divide
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them and get a pretty accurate estimate manifold which is still play money for now is trying out
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literally just saying okay bet if you if kamala harris is the nominee how likely is she to win
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the general election so that's this conditional odds it means if something then what's the odds
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and that helps you make decisions in life so if you're a democratic voter you want to know that
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gavin newsom if he's the nominee it's close to 60 percent that he'll win but if it's harris it's 37
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so that's pretty important information that the betters tell us no i did not know now let's talk
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about some of the existing odds right now so they have a harris at like what percent are you looking
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at like what are the interesting things you're seeing in the betting odds right now yeah so trump
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is favored over harris by about two to one so he's a big lead but she could definitely win yeah it's a
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little less than two to one right now and yeah the state map you know the blue wall pennsylvania
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michigan wisconsin they all lean in trump's column right now i'm surprised by florida which has trump
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at 92.5 to win yeah yeah used to be a swing state four years ago but it's deep red now there's no
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chance of biden win trump's a florida man you know he is now officially yeah that that is fascinating
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what do you think has changed there like what what are your sort of calculations going into this what
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would you be doing if you were a democrat right now in terms of a vp candidate etc uh yeah well
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i'm in florida right now actually and it it seems like the santis made a big difference there in terms
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of having a covet response that was so diametrically different from new york etc people said this is the
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alternate model pretty much everyone here liked that alternate model yeah um and so i think people
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shifted their politics there oh so you say he's literally shifted democrats to believe that the
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like republicans work in florida i i think yeah that's how that's why it's deep red on the election
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betting on its map well i think it also shows how unpopular harris is that de santis is predicted to
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win and she she's in only one third odds trump is yeah and yeah it it does show that if the democrats
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did run a normal candidate like newsom or whitmer the betters think that that candidate would win
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even though the polls currently have them down a lot that's likely just because they don't have name
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recognition so the betters are forecasting that that's why betters are better than just looking at
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polls because they model all sorts of things so what do you think the odds are of a contest
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in convention these days they're low it looks like kamala harris has wrapped it up she's at 87
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to get the nomination and pelosi just endorsed her so i i think that's right oh oh the democratic
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voters are not going to like this it's actually been pretty interesting from our perspective we're
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going to fill in an episode on this is watching the democratic commentators response to the kamala
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harris candidacy that's just like holistically positive and doesn't even include the possibility of
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changing her for a different candidate which i think is going to really bite them in the butt
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you know it's really interesting because it reminds you of what they were doing with biden
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one year ago two years ago it's like oh he's not senile it's a conspiracy theory
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you know yeah same thing with harris as soon as she starts going off on her maniacal lap or her
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the future of tomorrow is what tomorrow is i love that so much her catchphrases are
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i've got to add the snl skit about oh no no it was a daily show skit about that
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uh where she has her like a guru speechwriter she likes words in the sand or something
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talking about the significance of the passage of time
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right the significance of the passage of time so when you think about it there is great significance
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to the passage of time seems like maybe it's a small issue it's a big issue you need to get to go
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and need to be able to get where you need to go to do the work and get home she's come so far since
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our first session my name is dahlia rose hibiscus and i am vice president kamala harris's holistic thought
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advice i lead the vice president on not so much sentences as idea voyages it's a process i call
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speaking without thinking that's on top of everything else that we know and don't know yet
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based on what we've just been able to see and because we've seen it or not doesn't mean it hasn't
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happened the first thing i do is cut out all the words individually and then i take those words to my
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word cave that's where i wait to learn what order the universe wants them to be in have vibrations
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the feeling they give you is so much more powerful than what they need we have the ability to see
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what can be unburdened by what has been and then to make the possible actually happen hi i'm oliver
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barfalia and i'm 16 and a half years old and i'm the speechwriter for coloma harris since i was little
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i liked words writing words is fun so i made writing words my job space is exciting space it affects us all
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and it connects us all it's not all fun though sometimes i have to write about bad stuff like war
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ukraine is a country in europe it exists next to another country called russia russia is a bigger
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country russia is a powerful country russia decided to invade a smaller country called ukraine so
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basically that's wrong once i thought it would be neat if coloma wear a blue suit and told people she
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is wearing it because i like it i'm a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit i can't take all the
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credit though me and mrs carmel are team but she kind of is crazy or something and she kind of scares me
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and you can't fake that kind of influence you're either born with it or you're either not it is time
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for us to do what we have been doing and that time is every day well so i have i have a broader question
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about betting rather than polling for accurate election data i'm running for state rep no one in
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the political sphere you know among people running for office packs etc discuss betting odds when
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they're looking at things they're like oh well what does the polling say what you know like you should
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run a poll and i think a lot of that's because they're very incestuous like there's a lot of like
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oh well everyone hires each other's companies and this is almost like an mlm scheme like people are just
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trying to get politicians to come in and raise money so that everyone can just hire the same people and
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keep the industry running but i i'm just so confused as to why the discussion hasn't already
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shifted to looking only at betting odds because it's just one it's way cheaper two it's way more
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accurate it's very confusing where are you seeing things going in terms of adoption because i think
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that the media is starting to look at it more and cover betting odds more but it's very lumpy in terms
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of like the establishment in the political realm like actual operatives actual donors
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making decisions based on betting odds rather than polling which is bizarre yeah absolutely well
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one thing to notice is that betters do need polls so we're never gonna 100 switch but they need to
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have some basis for uh what's going on and then but the other thing why why don't the political class
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look at these betting odds which are better than just polls and robin hansen brilliant guy who actually
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kind of coined this prediction market idea he's thought a lot about this and i think the reason
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that he's come up with is that decision makers don't like their power being taken away so if you're a
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political decision maker you can say oh this poll you know it's up 12 among black americans and down
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for you know and therefore we should do this if it's just the betting odds saying oh you should pick
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newsom they lose their power to weigh in and it's just okay this is what it was you know you didn't
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really need me to tell you that you could have looked at the betting odds so that might be a reason
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for the slow uptake among political consultants the good news is yeah the media seems to be picking up on
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it more and more nate silver is citing them all the time now um i i do think i do think they played some
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slight role in the uh biden stepping down like the fact that they had his stepping down at such high
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odds made silver very widely read citing that a lot i think i think that may have made some
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difference or self-reinforcing cycle there yeah i mean i often thought if we were running for a
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slightly higher position than when you're running for simone i'd put big bets on myself then use that
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to raise money from donors look at how high up in the odds you see the nobody i mean fewer people
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bet on the local stuff uh and this is why the cftc wants to ban them it might be a good segue to that
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again let's talk about the battle about banning or unbanning like what's the public utility of these
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systems yeah i mean the public utility is huge like you know if you're a voter it tells you who's
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most electable it's if you have a business and you're going to be regulated out of business by
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one president but not the other that's really important to know to plan for the public utility
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i think and also just intellectually interesting and all of us are spending many hours following
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the news why not make it efficient i know you can get all that information by looking at the odds in
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minutes so public utility is huge the government regulators don't care that much is the latest from
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them it's it's so are you oh so they've been disinterested recently or have you seen interest
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oh well the yeah well yeah they're they're planning on banning so a couple years what's the argument for
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that yeah so so a couple months ago they announced they put together this formal proposal of regulation
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which would ban political betting in the us and also betting on oscar winners all this stuff so
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oh yeah so yeah what's the way what's the logic for banning oscar winner betting yeah and we have
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sports betting is now pervasive here it's so odd to me that that we've now seen this giant rollout
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of sports betting in the us and yet now we're seeing suppression of the cool like the substance
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substance i don't know why i'm saying it's substantive betting but i i don't know i just feel
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like you know i want to hear your answer no yeah it is more substantive than you know blackjack so
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why they they say they say manipulation like we were joking about earlier but in practice you know
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that's that's pretty hard to do like if you have money on trump like you're not actually going to
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be able to swing the election to trump for example so and no one person can really do that so i think
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it's not a very good reason to ban them you asked about the oscar thing yeah i guess you could have
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manipulation there too some oscar judge throws it but it's it's it pales in comparison to the benefits
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and it just so rarely happens i don't i love this complaint like oh politically interested people could
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manipulate this and it's like well then so are you punishing the pollsters that manipulated the odds
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in the hillary trump election right great no you're not so that's not really what you're worried about
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right yeah people manipulate polls all the time like there are politically affiliated consultants that
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it's well known that they do that part of the industry it's shocking to me that that would be the
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core argument that they're using but i guess bureaucrats are going to bureaucrat it is yeah the other
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reason is that they don't want to it would be too much work for them to which department actually
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has the ability to make these laws because cftc one of the many alphabet soup agencies out there
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commodity futures and trading commission if trump wins and we get in the administration we'll push to
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get those guys just get rid of them yeah yeah yeah if trump wins it's interesting i mean the election
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actually has implications for the betting markets if trump wins likely this regulation even though
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it's been formally proposed won't go through but if biden wins it's pretty much on track to do that
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though people are trying to stop it by threatening legal action and stuff well okay so what do you
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think of and this is something we've been talking a lot about on the show recently is this of the rise of
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the new right as somebody who's been like a political watcher for a long time by that what i mean is there
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seems to be a shift as we said like in the 90s the big big corp interest was republican and tech
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entrepreneur was democrat and now it's tech entrepreneur republican big corp democrat how how do you see this
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shift playing out in sort of the the likelihood of different people winning etc and in your yeah well
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yeah there's absolutely been this huge shift and realignment going on and i think jd vance trump's
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new vp pick really exemplifies that where he's he's a populist through and through you know he supports
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tariffs he supports more redistributive economic things but then culturally he's very much like we
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need to revive the culture that we used to have which was healthier and that i i think the pick of vance was
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actually very will be very important in cementing that whether you agree with it or not in the
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future because he's gonna be leading if trump wins this election whereas if he had picked burgum or more
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of a business republican i think in 2028 you could see this reverting so you know it's very this only
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happens like i don't know once or twice a century that you get a realignment but it seems like we're
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living through one of those yeah i mean do you think that the business republicans could ever come back at this
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point i think if trump loses maybe yeah but if he wins i think vance is a pretty big shoe-in for 2028
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and i think the populists have a big edge there and what are your thoughts on the theocratic faction
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of the base because they seem to have a lot less power in this election than i've seen them have
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historically yeah although i guess they already won in some ways by getting roe v wade repealed yeah so i
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think there is a bit of a pendulum swinging back now where trump got on the platform now saying we
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don't he removed the part saying we want a national federal legislative ban on abortion and so yeah
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they're definitely sorry i think that was really astute of him i mean i think he's agreed agreed
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i got you guys the win of the century now i don't have to do anything else for you
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yeah and it should be a state-by-state issue and yeah so i agree i think that's smart
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politically and policy-wise but yeah you're right the religious faction is losing power i mean people
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in the us are less religious now including conservatives so just the trends line up with
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that i mean catholics are getting tons of abortions and easing birth control so what's up with that
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one thing i really wanted to ask you though just as we as we wrap up discussion of like political
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betting and betting odds i i'm really interested in the effect when it comes to education and learning
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with kids that pre-testing has on knowledge acquisition you know like when you test yourself
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on a subject before and you're like well i don't know the answer maybe it's this then later when you're
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learning it you're like really paying attention and now that you've been you know like you said you
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lost money on like you know biden dropping out of the race you know you are involved in making
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these predictions you know you're playing the game i'm really curious over time how this has changed
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your consumption of knowledge like have you have you changed the way that you're looking at
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information what are your news sources and how are you making these calculations in your head like
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has your process changed i guess because it's kind of hard to like explain how you're internally
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thinking and how it's different but i'm curious i i do check my own website so when there's something
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big going on that's the first thing i go to i still also look at the polls to then make my own
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judgment about whether i think the betters are right which polls do you like which do you trust
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well i i use the real clear average for the most part and then i also i look within the polls so if you
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have a new york times poll one week that has trump up two and the next week they have trump up five
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that probably says something because the new york times didn't change internally oh so
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directionality yes oh interesting very smart no so that's my personal strategy reading the polls but
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yeah the betters are doing the same thing and adding even more fancy and intelligent stuff sometimes
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what's an example of something slightly more fancy that they do now i'm very curious well i mean the
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models get very complex so nate silver has his public model yeah but people who are trading like
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big money on these things definitely have their own private models it's you know regression analysis
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different variables all this stuff getting super mathy on it wow absolutely yeah i love how low some
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of the polls could be hold on i i just checked out where 538 to win is right now and it just says
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forecast suspended the last minute change in candidate the final question i wanted to ask
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you on this stuff is you used to be a fox news like worker in the days of the old republican party
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can you describe sort of culturally what it's been like in terms of the people you know to see the
00:26:03.600
shift in the republican party that has happened since that period i think definitely a lot of people have
00:26:09.360
shifted and i think people i think the big thing is republicans at some point were kind of the party of
00:26:19.440
the establishment like protecting the institutions and all this and i think in the 2010s they really
00:26:26.720
the institutions really kind of turned against them they started you know banning republicans from
00:26:32.720
social media the university started firing them all this stuff and they kind of felt okay
00:26:39.200
so we're not defending the institutions anymore what are we doing and i think a lot of people had
00:26:45.600
this kind of reconversion to okay we're gonna either take this over as you know desantis is trying
00:26:52.560
to do in florida with the universities or but some kind of more pop more interventionist more
00:26:59.040
populist thing and so that's the big shift i've seen and i think that's the cause of the shift
00:27:04.800
and yeah that's really interesting well and so you hang out with like a lot of techie crowds and stuff
00:27:10.480
like that have you seen their attitudes shifting recently i mean i would say personally i have
00:27:14.960
like it used to be that republican would like keep you from getting hired and now it's like avant-garde
00:27:20.160
yeah definitely in the last two years my personal theory is that musk buying twitter caused a lot of this
00:27:26.160
vibe shift as it's referred to because so many tech ceos and journalists are on there they're getting
00:27:34.400
your information there and we like to think of ourselves as above algorithms but we're not so
00:27:39.520
they're suddenly getting fed all this viral content and articles that they weren't seeing before
00:27:44.960
before they were getting you know only the jack dorsey approved hashtags and uh they don't even notice
00:27:52.080
this but suddenly their information diets totally different and yeah you have tech people endorsing
00:27:57.760
trump and it's a very different vibe yeah that's a yeah that's a good way to put it i mean i i'd say that
00:28:05.520
that now was in tech circles like being republicans than new trans it's like out there and weird but like
00:28:12.000
accepted which it was not in tech circles five six years ago when i was you know first in this stuff
00:28:18.800
well this is fantastic it's been any any final thoughts that you wanted to have on betting odds
00:28:23.680
or anything like that or the election cycle right now i guess the last thing i'll say there's a lot
00:28:28.560
of money on these markets there's over 200 million on poly market holy smokes yeah yeah just on the
00:28:35.920
presidential election there is over 50 million on predicted tens of millions on betfair like it's a big
00:28:43.600
industry and bigger than ever right presumably this is a lot more than the last cycle i the last cycle
00:28:50.080
was big too i think by the time the cycle wraps up it'll be bigger than ever but yeah these are
00:28:55.040
efficient markets with these kinds of markets and they give good information yeah that'd be very hard
00:29:00.640
market to manipulate yeah exactly why are they legal like how have these companies did they need to
00:29:06.800
register as betting markets or how'd they get away with that it's a whole mishmash so some of them are in the
00:29:12.480
the uk predicted got grandfathered in which the government is trying to take away that status
00:29:17.920
they're fighting it in court poly market doesn't accept americans and yeah and but they're crypto
00:29:25.520
based so anyone in the world can kind of use that so there's yeah so there are all sorts of ways these
00:29:32.320
places they're still running without completely running afoul of the regulators wow that's really cool well
00:29:39.200
it's been great having you on we'd love to have you on again and thank you for your time thank you