Based Camp - Election Betting： Why Gamblers Keep Beating Pollsters with Maxim Lott

00:00:00.000 yeah i'm excited for this too i really appreciate your natalism work that you guys do so well and

00:00:06.480 we really appreciate the work you do man you're on at a perfect time like we're probably going to

00:00:10.240 run your interviews with us like usually months for us to run these now we're like oh we got it

00:00:14.640 like yeah we got to run over with all this election stuff that's going on this is wild

00:00:18.880 yeah you had you had disagreed with the betting odds recently yes yes i had a post about why

00:00:24.480 biden won't drop out all this good reasoning but the betting odds said he would and he did

00:00:30.400 so the lesson is to listen to the betting odds not any one analyst oh i'd love to hear why you

00:00:36.160 thought he wouldn't drop out yeah you know i thought it wasn't in his interest if he wanted

00:00:42.080 to he could have gone to the convention and got the nomination yes thank you that's that's what i kept

00:00:47.200 telling everyone i was like he's like all the way up through saturday it was like he's not going to

00:00:50.480 drop out no one can technically force him to drop out and he's no reason to want to do why would he

00:00:55.840 do it no one can stop him he's not going to drop out so i'm with you and you also have the problem

00:01:00.880 that jill hates camilla and this is like publicly and if she's making the decisions for biden she

00:01:07.760 definitely wouldn't want him to drop out if she was a presumptive nominee yeah and it seemed like

00:01:13.840 there was no way for them to truly force him out either but i think i underestimated how much kind of

00:01:19.840 soft power there is in the democratic party with obama and pelosi really running the show

00:01:26.080 like i don't know man they tried everything i feel like they literally tried everything like people

00:01:30.880 drove out to his house you know george clooney like just they threw everything at him and i think

00:01:37.440 maybe in the end because donations started drying up that was it you know just like yeah i think it was

00:01:43.200 probably donors that got him out so you'd think if you can make it to the convention the donors would

00:01:49.920 who else are they going to donate yeah they don't like trump so yes but clearly he felt the pressure

00:01:55.600 and he had covid and a lot of things conspired and he dropped out yeah the betters were not surprised

00:02:02.560 they had this at like 70 a couple days before he dropped out wow they were right i i lost money

00:02:09.600 betting on the other side but yeah he got covid we'll see if there was any you know there was a

00:02:15.680 lot of people interested in something like that happening to him i was i was joking there was a

00:02:20.320 thing about trump's assassination and people were like well you know republicans would be cheering too

00:02:25.280 if biden was assassinated and i was like not a single republican i have ever met would be cheering

00:02:29.200 if biden was assassinated they love it's a disappointing development for republicans that biden is no longer

00:02:35.600 running they were thrilled with biden running yeah yeah now the polls have kamala harris up by like

00:02:41.760 maybe or losing by one point less than biden was losing by so we'll see how that goes for them the

00:02:48.720 betting odds yeah the betting odds it's interesting because you can look at these conditional odds so you

00:02:53.520 say if this person's nominated what are their odds of winning and biden's odds were always around 30

00:03:00.320 percent kamala harris's were around 37 so she's slightly more electable but not much more electable 1.00

00:03:08.080 okay so we have been talking generally right now i'm going to introduce you to anyone who is wondering

00:03:14.080 why the election betting on numbers are a bit off in this it is because this was filmed around a week

00:03:19.840 ago and so sorry about that it just took me a while to process it but so people who don't know

00:03:25.040 maxim lot i grew up on your stuff every election cycle loading what's the url here election betting

00:03:32.880 odds.com and then you had your own website because it is historically speaking the most accurate

00:03:40.640 predictor of who's going to win an election cycle and i'd love it if you could talk a little bit about

00:03:45.600 why it's such an accurate predictor of who's going to win and and and its advantages over traditional

00:03:51.200 polling yeah absolutely and great to be here with you guys i love your natalism work the so i created

00:03:57.680 the site in 2015 and we've tracked hundreds of races since then and you can graph it out to see how

00:04:04.800 accurate it is and what we find is that in general if the markets say there's a 20 chance that someone's

00:04:11.520 going to win a race that actually happens about 20 of the time so it's not exactly perfect you can see

00:04:18.160 the lines they almost match up but basically you can go to electionbettingodds.com click

00:04:24.000 track record and it'll show you this and it's been very accurate it's the single best predictor if you

00:04:31.120 just want tell me quickly who's going to win this is the best thing to go to so you're sort of the

00:04:36.720 granddaddy of betting odds stuff and the field has undergone we met you at manifest i think an enormous

00:04:42.720 evolution in the past probably decade or so can you talk a little bit about how much how prediction

00:04:48.640 markets have evolved over the course of your life sure and i don't know if it's quite accurate to say

00:04:54.320 i'm the granddaddy you know there are people like robin hampson who might fit that role better

00:04:59.760 yeah he goes to all the stuff i guess for the general you were my first i got it yeah you made it

00:05:07.360 accessible in a topic that i was passionate about right for for popularizing it i think election

00:05:13.120 betting odds got more than 25 million unique views so hopefully that's made a difference

00:05:21.760 and yeah so prediction markets it has changed a lot over the years i first started looking at these in

00:05:26.960 2007 and at that time there was one big site it was based in ireland called intrade.com and it was

00:05:34.240 great and people traded there and they accurately predicted things they were shut down mostly by

00:05:40.880 the u.s government first their founder died climbing mount everest which is tragic but then the government

00:05:46.720 said hey you're taking american customers and you're not registered with our government so they sued them

00:05:52.800 and they shut down immediately after that so there were a couple years then where there was really

00:05:59.280 almost no prediction markets the best thing was betfair which was this uk-based place where people

00:06:06.000 bet 99 of it people are betting on sports there and it's legal there yeah they had this one percent

00:06:12.000 yeah where they were betting on elections and it was annoying for me as a reporter because we would

00:06:19.040 want to report on these odds on the stossel show on fox news and they the betfair site because it's these

00:06:26.240 english gamblers there the odds are really hard to read it's like you know 30 over 4.5

00:06:34.320 so i'd have to manually convert all these in excel sheet to like 55 and then eventually i figured oh

00:06:40.880 let's i can automate this and then i can put it on a website so that's how election betting started and

00:06:47.920 since then there have been a lot more entrance into the market like yeah yeah you were at fox you said yeah

00:06:54.640 yeah fox news i was working for john stossel so he's a big prediction market guy too and helped

00:07:00.160 popularize the site okay and so then what happened so your site goes live because now you know there's

00:07:05.280 whole conferences around betting odds and stuff like that and there's like different ways of

00:07:09.600 measuring them than there were historically because it's not like sports betting like it was historically

00:07:13.520 now it's like status hierarchy games interesting yeah well there people are betting on all sorts of things

00:07:21.360 now you know people are betting on the oscars on foreign elections yeah manifold has a lot of creative

00:07:27.680 markets but yeah it's really a blooming area you you had well and you were talking about conditional

00:07:33.760 markets as well where do you see those coming up yeah so on our site what we do we create we use the

00:07:40.720 implied odds so if you have people betting on the nomination and on who's gonna win you can divide

00:07:47.680 them and get a pretty accurate estimate manifold which is still play money for now is trying out

00:07:55.280 literally just saying okay bet if you if kamala harris is the nominee how likely is she to win

00:08:02.160 the general election so that's this conditional odds it means if something then what's the odds

00:08:08.000 and that helps you make decisions in life so if you're a democratic voter you want to know that

00:08:12.960 gavin newsom if he's the nominee it's close to 60 percent that he'll win but if it's harris it's 37

00:08:19.200 so that's pretty important information that the betters tell us no i did not know now let's talk

00:08:24.480 about some of the existing odds right now so they have a harris at like what percent are you looking

00:08:30.320 at like what are the interesting things you're seeing in the betting odds right now yeah so trump

00:08:35.200 is favored over harris by about two to one so he's a big lead but she could definitely win yeah it's a 0.99

00:08:41.520 little less than two to one right now and yeah the state map you know the blue wall pennsylvania

00:08:47.760 michigan wisconsin they all lean in trump's column right now i'm surprised by florida which has trump

00:08:54.080 at 92.5 to win yeah yeah used to be a swing state four years ago but it's deep red now there's no

00:09:01.200 chance of biden win trump's a florida man you know he is now officially yeah that that is fascinating

00:09:08.800 what do you think has changed there like what what are your sort of calculations going into this what

00:09:13.200 would you be doing if you were a democrat right now in terms of a vp candidate etc uh yeah well

00:09:19.440 i'm in florida right now actually and it it seems like the santis made a big difference there in terms

00:09:24.960 of having a covet response that was so diametrically different from new york etc people said this is the

00:09:32.640 alternate model pretty much everyone here liked that alternate model yeah um and so i think people

00:09:38.880 shifted their politics there oh so you say he's literally shifted democrats to believe that the

00:09:44.480 like republicans work in florida i i think yeah that's how that's why it's deep red on the election

00:09:50.720 betting on its map well i think it also shows how unpopular harris is that de santis is predicted to

00:09:58.400 win and she she's in only one third odds trump is yeah and yeah it it does show that if the democrats

00:10:06.800 did run a normal candidate like newsom or whitmer the betters think that that candidate would win

00:10:13.520 even though the polls currently have them down a lot that's likely just because they don't have name

00:10:18.000 recognition so the betters are forecasting that that's why betters are better than just looking at

00:10:23.600 polls because they model all sorts of things so what do you think the odds are of a contest

00:10:28.320 in convention these days they're low it looks like kamala harris has wrapped it up she's at 87 0.99

00:10:34.080 to get the nomination and pelosi just endorsed her so i i think that's right oh oh the democratic

00:10:40.800 voters are not going to like this it's actually been pretty interesting from our perspective we're

00:10:44.400 going to fill in an episode on this is watching the democratic commentators response to the kamala

00:10:50.320 harris candidacy that's just like holistically positive and doesn't even include the possibility of 0.98

00:10:56.960 changing her for a different candidate which i think is going to really bite them in the butt 0.99

00:11:01.360 you know it's really interesting because it reminds you of what they were doing with biden 0.95

00:11:05.200 one year ago two years ago it's like oh he's not senile it's a conspiracy theory

00:11:10.880 you know yeah same thing with harris as soon as she starts going off on her maniacal lap or her 1.00

00:11:17.760 the future of tomorrow is what tomorrow is i love that so much her catchphrases are

00:11:26.000 i've got to add the snl skit about oh no no it was a daily show skit about that

00:11:30.640 uh where she has her like a guru speechwriter she likes words in the sand or something 1.00

00:11:39.520 talking about the significance of the passage of time

00:11:41.760 right the significance of the passage of time so when you think about it there is great significance

00:11:49.040 to the passage of time seems like maybe it's a small issue it's a big issue you need to get to go

00:11:56.800 and need to be able to get where you need to go to do the work and get home she's come so far since

00:12:02.160 our first session my name is dahlia rose hibiscus and i am vice president kamala harris's holistic thought

00:12:08.640 advice i lead the vice president on not so much sentences as idea voyages it's a process i call

00:12:16.160 speaking without thinking that's on top of everything else that we know and don't know yet

00:12:21.760 based on what we've just been able to see and because we've seen it or not doesn't mean it hasn't

00:12:25.840 happened the first thing i do is cut out all the words individually and then i take those words to my

00:12:32.720 word cave that's where i wait to learn what order the universe wants them to be in have vibrations

00:12:43.840 the feeling they give you is so much more powerful than what they need we have the ability to see

00:12:50.240 what can be unburdened by what has been and then to make the possible actually happen hi i'm oliver

00:12:59.200 barfalia and i'm 16 and a half years old and i'm the speechwriter for coloma harris since i was little

00:13:06.480 i liked words writing words is fun so i made writing words my job space is exciting space it affects us all

00:13:18.960 and it connects us all it's not all fun though sometimes i have to write about bad stuff like war

00:13:26.400 ukraine is a country in europe it exists next to another country called russia russia is a bigger

00:13:35.120 country russia is a powerful country russia decided to invade a smaller country called ukraine so

00:13:42.000 basically that's wrong once i thought it would be neat if coloma wear a blue suit and told people she 1.00

00:13:49.760 is wearing it because i like it i'm a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit i can't take all the

00:13:57.920 credit though me and mrs carmel are team but she kind of is crazy or something and she kind of scares me

00:14:06.480 and you can't fake that kind of influence you're either born with it or you're either not it is time

00:14:15.440 for us to do what we have been doing and that time is every day well so i have i have a broader question

00:14:21.840 about betting rather than polling for accurate election data i'm running for state rep no one in

00:14:29.280 the political sphere you know among people running for office packs etc discuss betting odds when

00:14:35.760 they're looking at things they're like oh well what does the polling say what you know like you should

00:14:39.600 run a poll and i think a lot of that's because they're very incestuous like there's a lot of like

00:14:44.960 oh well everyone hires each other's companies and this is almost like an mlm scheme like people are just

00:14:50.480 trying to get politicians to come in and raise money so that everyone can just hire the same people and

00:14:54.720 keep the industry running but i i'm just so confused as to why the discussion hasn't already

00:15:01.280 shifted to looking only at betting odds because it's just one it's way cheaper two it's way more

00:15:07.680 accurate it's very confusing where are you seeing things going in terms of adoption because i think

00:15:13.600 that the media is starting to look at it more and cover betting odds more but it's very lumpy in terms

00:15:19.200 of like the establishment in the political realm like actual operatives actual donors

00:15:24.640 making decisions based on betting odds rather than polling which is bizarre yeah absolutely well

00:15:31.120 one thing to notice is that betters do need polls so we're never gonna 100 switch but they need to

00:15:37.840 have some basis for uh what's going on and then but the other thing why why don't the political class

00:15:45.280 look at these betting odds which are better than just polls and robin hansen brilliant guy who actually

00:15:51.440 kind of coined this prediction market idea he's thought a lot about this and i think the reason

00:15:57.920 that he's come up with is that decision makers don't like their power being taken away so if you're a

00:16:04.000 political decision maker you can say oh this poll you know it's up 12 among black americans and down

00:16:11.600 for you know and therefore we should do this if it's just the betting odds saying oh you should pick

00:16:17.280 newsom they lose their power to weigh in and it's just okay this is what it was you know you didn't

00:16:24.560 really need me to tell you that you could have looked at the betting odds so that might be a reason

00:16:28.240 for the slow uptake among political consultants the good news is yeah the media seems to be picking up on

00:16:33.680 it more and more nate silver is citing them all the time now um i i do think i do think they played some

00:16:40.560 slight role in the uh biden stepping down like the fact that they had his stepping down at such high

00:16:47.120 odds made silver very widely read citing that a lot i think i think that may have made some

00:16:53.680 difference or self-reinforcing cycle there yeah i mean i often thought if we were running for a

00:16:59.840 slightly higher position than when you're running for simone i'd put big bets on myself then use that

00:17:04.560 to raise money from donors look at how high up in the odds you see the nobody i mean fewer people

00:17:10.960 bet on the local stuff uh and this is why the cftc wants to ban them it might be a good segue to that

00:17:18.560 again let's talk about the battle about banning or unbanning like what's the public utility of these

00:17:23.120 systems yeah i mean the public utility is huge like you know if you're a voter it tells you who's

00:17:29.600 most electable it's if you have a business and you're going to be regulated out of business by

00:17:35.360 one president but not the other that's really important to know to plan for the public utility

00:17:40.560 i think and also just intellectually interesting and all of us are spending many hours following

00:17:46.800 the news why not make it efficient i know you can get all that information by looking at the odds in

00:17:52.720 minutes so public utility is huge the government regulators don't care that much is the latest from

00:18:00.560 them it's it's so are you oh so they've been disinterested recently or have you seen interest

00:18:06.240 oh well the yeah well yeah they're they're planning on banning so a couple years what's the argument for

00:18:11.440 that yeah so so a couple months ago they announced they put together this formal proposal of regulation

00:18:19.360 which would ban political betting in the us and also betting on oscar winners all this stuff so

00:18:26.240 oh yeah so yeah what's the way what's the logic for banning oscar winner betting yeah and we have

00:18:33.120 sports betting is now pervasive here it's so odd to me that that we've now seen this giant rollout

00:18:38.800 of sports betting in the us and yet now we're seeing suppression of the cool like the substance

00:18:44.800 substance i don't know why i'm saying it's substantive betting but i i don't know i just feel

00:18:48.880 like you know i want to hear your answer no yeah it is more substantive than you know blackjack so

00:18:55.120 why they they say they say manipulation like we were joking about earlier but in practice you know

00:19:02.480 that's that's pretty hard to do like if you have money on trump like you're not actually going to

00:19:08.880 be able to swing the election to trump for example so and no one person can really do that so i think

00:19:15.040 it's not a very good reason to ban them you asked about the oscar thing yeah i guess you could have

00:19:20.800 manipulation there too some oscar judge throws it but it's it's it pales in comparison to the benefits

00:19:30.000 and it just so rarely happens i don't i love this complaint like oh politically interested people could

00:19:37.200 manipulate this and it's like well then so are you punishing the pollsters that manipulated the odds

00:19:42.000 in the hillary trump election right great no you're not so that's not really what you're worried about

00:19:48.160 right yeah people manipulate polls all the time like there are politically affiliated consultants that

00:19:55.120 it's well known that they do that part of the industry it's shocking to me that that would be the

00:19:59.680 core argument that they're using but i guess bureaucrats are going to bureaucrat it is yeah the other

00:20:05.360 reason is that they don't want to it would be too much work for them to which department actually

00:20:10.560 has the ability to make these laws because cftc one of the many alphabet soup agencies out there

00:20:18.320 commodity futures and trading commission if trump wins and we get in the administration we'll push to

00:20:24.960 get those guys just get rid of them yeah yeah yeah if trump wins it's interesting i mean the election

00:20:32.320 actually has implications for the betting markets if trump wins likely this regulation even though

00:20:37.680 it's been formally proposed won't go through but if biden wins it's pretty much on track to do that

00:20:43.840 though people are trying to stop it by threatening legal action and stuff well okay so what do you

00:20:49.600 think of and this is something we've been talking a lot about on the show recently is this of the rise of

00:20:55.600 the new right as somebody who's been like a political watcher for a long time by that what i mean is there

00:21:00.800 seems to be a shift as we said like in the 90s the big big corp interest was republican and tech

00:21:08.640 entrepreneur was democrat and now it's tech entrepreneur republican big corp democrat how how do you see this

00:21:16.640 shift playing out in sort of the the likelihood of different people winning etc and in your yeah well

00:21:22.480 yeah there's absolutely been this huge shift and realignment going on and i think jd vance trump's

00:21:31.360 new vp pick really exemplifies that where he's he's a populist through and through you know he supports

00:21:38.160 tariffs he supports more redistributive economic things but then culturally he's very much like we

00:21:44.560 need to revive the culture that we used to have which was healthier and that i i think the pick of vance was

00:21:52.160 actually very will be very important in cementing that whether you agree with it or not in the

00:21:58.720 future because he's gonna be leading if trump wins this election whereas if he had picked burgum or more

00:22:03.920 of a business republican i think in 2028 you could see this reverting so you know it's very this only

00:22:09.760 happens like i don't know once or twice a century that you get a realignment but it seems like we're

00:22:14.320 living through one of those yeah i mean do you think that the business republicans could ever come back at this

00:22:19.200 point i think if trump loses maybe yeah but if he wins i think vance is a pretty big shoe-in for 2028

00:22:28.400 and i think the populists have a big edge there and what are your thoughts on the theocratic faction

00:22:36.480 of the base because they seem to have a lot less power in this election than i've seen them have

00:22:40.400 historically yeah although i guess they already won in some ways by getting roe v wade repealed yeah so i

00:22:47.920 think there is a bit of a pendulum swinging back now where trump got on the platform now saying we

00:22:54.880 don't he removed the part saying we want a national federal legislative ban on abortion and so yeah

00:23:02.240 they're definitely sorry i think that was really astute of him i mean i think he's agreed agreed

00:23:07.520 i got you guys the win of the century now i don't have to do anything else for you

00:23:11.520 yeah and it should be a state-by-state issue and yeah so i agree i think that's smart

00:23:18.880 politically and policy-wise but yeah you're right the religious faction is losing power i mean people

00:23:24.640 in the us are less religious now including conservatives so just the trends line up with

00:23:30.160 that i mean catholics are getting tons of abortions and easing birth control so what's up with that

00:23:35.040 one thing i really wanted to ask you though just as we as we wrap up discussion of like political

00:23:40.480 betting and betting odds i i'm really interested in the effect when it comes to education and learning

00:23:44.560 with kids that pre-testing has on knowledge acquisition you know like when you test yourself

00:23:49.440 on a subject before and you're like well i don't know the answer maybe it's this then later when you're

00:23:52.960 learning it you're like really paying attention and now that you've been you know like you said you

00:23:57.760 lost money on like you know biden dropping out of the race you know you are involved in making

00:24:02.320 these predictions you know you're playing the game i'm really curious over time how this has changed

00:24:07.680 your consumption of knowledge like have you have you changed the way that you're looking at

00:24:13.200 information what are your news sources and how are you making these calculations in your head like

00:24:18.720 has your process changed i guess because it's kind of hard to like explain how you're internally

00:24:22.640 thinking and how it's different but i'm curious i i do check my own website so when there's something

00:24:29.600 big going on that's the first thing i go to i still also look at the polls to then make my own

00:24:35.680 judgment about whether i think the betters are right which polls do you like which do you trust

00:24:40.560 well i i use the real clear average for the most part and then i also i look within the polls so if you

00:24:47.840 have a new york times poll one week that has trump up two and the next week they have trump up five

00:24:54.240 that probably says something because the new york times didn't change internally oh so

00:24:58.560 directionality yes oh interesting very smart no so that's my personal strategy reading the polls but

00:25:05.520 yeah the betters are doing the same thing and adding even more fancy and intelligent stuff sometimes

00:25:14.320 what's an example of something slightly more fancy that they do now i'm very curious well i mean the

00:25:18.320 models get very complex so nate silver has his public model yeah but people who are trading like

00:25:25.280 big money on these things definitely have their own private models it's you know regression analysis

00:25:30.560 different variables all this stuff getting super mathy on it wow absolutely yeah i love how low some

00:25:38.240 of the polls could be hold on i i just checked out where 538 to win is right now and it just says

00:25:43.280 forecast suspended the last minute change in candidate the final question i wanted to ask

00:25:50.000 you on this stuff is you used to be a fox news like worker in the days of the old republican party

00:25:56.960 can you describe sort of culturally what it's been like in terms of the people you know to see the

00:26:03.600 shift in the republican party that has happened since that period i think definitely a lot of people have

00:26:09.360 shifted and i think people i think the big thing is republicans at some point were kind of the party of

00:26:19.440 the establishment like protecting the institutions and all this and i think in the 2010s they really

00:26:26.720 the institutions really kind of turned against them they started you know banning republicans from

00:26:32.720 social media the university started firing them all this stuff and they kind of felt okay

00:26:39.200 so we're not defending the institutions anymore what are we doing and i think a lot of people had

00:26:45.600 this kind of reconversion to okay we're gonna either take this over as you know desantis is trying

00:26:52.560 to do in florida with the universities or but some kind of more pop more interventionist more

00:26:59.040 populist thing and so that's the big shift i've seen and i think that's the cause of the shift

00:27:04.800 and yeah that's really interesting well and so you hang out with like a lot of techie crowds and stuff

00:27:10.480 like that have you seen their attitudes shifting recently i mean i would say personally i have

00:27:14.960 like it used to be that republican would like keep you from getting hired and now it's like avant-garde

00:27:20.160 yeah definitely in the last two years my personal theory is that musk buying twitter caused a lot of this 0.80

00:27:26.160 vibe shift as it's referred to because so many tech ceos and journalists are on there they're getting

00:27:34.400 your information there and we like to think of ourselves as above algorithms but we're not so

00:27:39.520 they're suddenly getting fed all this viral content and articles that they weren't seeing before

00:27:44.960 before they were getting you know only the jack dorsey approved hashtags and uh they don't even notice

00:27:52.080 this but suddenly their information diets totally different and yeah you have tech people endorsing

00:27:57.760 trump and it's a very different vibe yeah that's a yeah that's a good way to put it i mean i i'd say that

00:28:05.520 that now was in tech circles like being republicans than new trans it's like out there and weird but like

00:28:12.000 accepted which it was not in tech circles five six years ago when i was you know first in this stuff

00:28:18.800 well this is fantastic it's been any any final thoughts that you wanted to have on betting odds

00:28:23.680 or anything like that or the election cycle right now i guess the last thing i'll say there's a lot

00:28:28.560 of money on these markets there's over 200 million on poly market holy smokes yeah yeah just on the

00:28:35.920 presidential election there is over 50 million on predicted tens of millions on betfair like it's a big

00:28:43.600 industry and bigger than ever right presumably this is a lot more than the last cycle i the last cycle

00:28:50.080 was big too i think by the time the cycle wraps up it'll be bigger than ever but yeah these are

00:28:55.040 efficient markets with these kinds of markets and they give good information yeah that'd be very hard

00:29:00.640 market to manipulate yeah exactly why are they legal like how have these companies did they need to

00:29:06.800 register as betting markets or how'd they get away with that it's a whole mishmash so some of them are in the

00:29:12.480 the uk predicted got grandfathered in which the government is trying to take away that status

00:29:17.920 they're fighting it in court poly market doesn't accept americans and yeah and but they're crypto

00:29:25.520 based so anyone in the world can kind of use that so there's yeah so there are all sorts of ways these

00:29:32.320 places they're still running without completely running afoul of the regulators wow that's really cool well

00:29:39.200 it's been great having you on we'd love to have you on again and thank you for your time thank you

00:29:45.120 this has been great great talking with you

Based Camp - July 29, 2024

Election Betting： Why Gamblers Keep Beating Pollsters with Maxim Lott

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