Based Camp - September 26, 2024Fertility Rates and Homicide： Why Are They So Strongly Correlated？
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
174.04155
Summary
Fertility rates in the United States are rapidly declining, but there's still a lot of water at the bottom of the pond. Is this a good or bad thing? And why do some countries have higher fertility rates than others? And what does it have to do with homicide rates? In this episode, we try to figure it out.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
you can open your WhatsApp now because I told her I want to surprise her. You can look at the first
00:00:04.440
three maps that I show you, which I think it gives people an idea just how quickly and
00:00:09.020
dramatically fertility rates are declining in the United States. Most of the United States
00:00:14.620
in 2005 had the fertility rate that today only our highest fertility states have. And so here
00:00:21.800
I'm showing a 2022 heat chart of fertility rates in the United States. Then we're going back 10
00:00:28.520
years and you're seeing, okay, fertility rates are declining. Now we're going to go back to 2005
00:00:34.000
and you see basically the entire United States max out the fertility rate. If you go in chronological
00:00:39.380
order, it looks like a pond going dry as though the United States was full of water. And then
00:00:45.820
there's only a little bit of water at the bottom of a mostly dried up pond at this point. And it's
00:00:51.320
funny how the fertility seems to still be, the remaining fertility is concentrated at the center.
00:00:56.780
Well, not exactly in the center. So I want you to contrast two maps here. Look at this first map
00:01:05.160
that I sent you, the 2022 map of the closest up to date fertility rates we have per state. And then
00:01:11.680
look at this red map underneath it. Do you notice that they have a remarkable overlap? Okay. So this
00:01:21.280
Oh, damn. Um, okay. So wow. Just, I guess we have a high churn rate, you know, birth and death.
00:01:27.660
If you take out the states that you know are disproportionately high, just due to major cities,
00:01:33.700
i.e. New York, and then some of the new England states and Florida, it's a near perfect overlap to the
00:01:41.340
fertility map of the United States. Would you like to know more? When you correct four cities,
00:01:45.800
it's a perfect overlap. Homicides match fertility rates. And then I wanted to say like, is this a
00:01:51.940
U S thing or is this an, a global thing? Right? So if you look at the first global map, in fact,
00:01:59.720
can you even tell which of these two maps is the fertility map and which is the global homicide map?
00:02:04.740
If, if I hadn't, if I wasn't looking at the labeling, I know, I definitely would have thought
00:02:13.220
that this was not fertility because why would California be so high? It does have the interstate,
00:02:18.180
which is more conservative, but no, everyone's on the coast. So I'm not talking about the U S I'm
00:02:23.760
talking about the two global maps. Oh, the global maps. Okay. Hold on. I haven't looked at the gold
00:02:27.700
maps yet. Okay. So, okay. I'm looking at the first global map. Whoa. Okay. I would not be able to
00:02:39.080
tell the difference. We're not for Russia. Russia is the big outlier. So here we're going to look
00:02:44.420
at Europe because we're actually going to talk about why Russia is a big outlier here. Cause I
00:02:48.280
think it's really interesting that this is the case. Well, what about Iceland too? It's a little
00:02:51.880
sus. What's going on there? Yeah. What's with these terminal Northern nations?
00:02:58.500
Why does Greenland have such a high fertility? Oh, that's a wait. Oh, no, that's a murder rate.
00:03:03.780
Why does the murder rate? That's what I was saying. The answer appears to be nobody knows,
00:03:07.800
but the best explanation that I read is only a few murders a year can really knock up a country with
00:03:14.580
such a small population's murder rate. And because Greenland has such a very, what's the word I'm
00:03:21.520
looking for here? Remote geography. It's very easy to get someone alone or do something to somebody
00:03:27.820
without any real risk of consequences. Is Iceland and Russia seem to be weirdly terminal. Like
00:03:33.320
there's just this, that's what makes them obviously not about fertility. Yeah. And the other big area
00:03:38.000
where this trend doesn't hold is Latin America, which is low fertility, but also high murder rate.
00:03:44.020
High murder. Oh gosh, they're just completely undoing. Just, just when you think that Russia
00:03:48.180
couldn't be more screwed. Well, yeah. Now, if you look at just Europe, which I have here,
00:03:52.420
you can see the big area where this trend doesn't hold. It's Slavic cultural groups. Slavic cultural
00:03:59.140
groups are very murdery, but also very low fertility. Well, I just, when you think of Slavic culture,
00:04:05.760
though, you kind of think nihilism, depression, and heavy drinking.
00:04:09.280
I hear the ballet in Prague is excellent this season. Terrible, isn't it? Every year it gets
00:04:18.820
worse. First they take away our smoking room, then they push us outside. I wonder when they
00:04:24.820
will decide just to get it over with and kill us. Poor Jörg. Such a pessimist. Jörg. Jörg.
00:04:32.320
What are you doing? You cannot smoke. They are moving us to a new smoking area.
00:04:48.860
We must all fight them. We must keep smoking until the bitter end.
00:04:57.160
Actually, yeah, I was going to go into this later, but I can get right into it before we go into any
00:05:01.040
more data. Okay. So the reason why the, is different things motivate stabbiness in a
00:05:07.940
population. And I would argue that the number one thing that motivates stabbiness is a high level of
00:05:14.820
individual respect for our personal honor or family honor is the bigger thing. So, so family honor
00:05:22.140
cultures are very stabby. So are vitalistic cultures. They tend to be very stabby because they are just
00:05:28.680
more impulsive about potentially life-changing decisions where the stabbiness among the Slavic
00:05:34.580
cultural group. And this is why it's important to not think of white people as one cultural group
00:05:40.380
because they are not is motivated instead from a lack of, I'd say an intrinsic belief that human life
00:05:47.280
has value. They, as a dominant cultural group, if you look at the art or the stories that they produce
00:05:55.040
and are famous for, they are typically based around the types of concepts that you are talking about
00:06:02.160
here, Simone, which is to say, you know, just, I mean, I always think of what's that book called the
00:06:07.540
cockroach or whatever, it's like the classic Slavic story.
00:06:12.060
Oh, I just think of Dostoevsky and that one operative or something. He was talking about this major issue
00:06:18.100
of every time there's the springtime thaw, there's just too many dead bodies of people who got blackout drunk
00:06:24.940
fell down in the snow, got buried under snow, and were never found until they thought out.
00:06:35.420
Yeah, well, I, I, it's something, I don't even think like a Russian is going to be like,
00:06:39.700
that's a racist thing to say. They'd be like, yeah, our culture is, is very, well.
00:06:44.620
It's not known for, no one ever argues that Russians are cheerful, ever.
00:06:48.140
Well, but I would, I would, if you, if you think about vitalism,
00:07:18.120
and then contrast that with the world, this sort of Appalachian region in the United States
00:07:24.160
and this Western region in the United States that is unusually high fertility rate in the United States
00:07:31.000
Drew, why do you think that filler's pointing it out?
00:07:35.380
I reckon that's the way they wave howdy in California.
00:07:52.640
It's typically very vitalistic, like me and mine, we're going to do great things.
00:07:57.600
God's everywhere, families, everything, you know, aren't we the best and the greatest?
00:08:02.620
Right outside of this warm church town, there's a gold dirt roadie
00:08:08.420
to grow up and live happy in the land of the free.
00:08:17.820
and a statue of liberty started shaking her face.
00:08:22.180
But there is a downside to this that I'm going to get to,
00:08:29.680
There aren't many other cultures that are so nihilistic that it leads to stabbing.
00:08:34.180
Well, and it's, they destroy people through their mere nihilism.
00:08:37.280
I like that that seems to be one of the major military tactics.
00:08:43.800
Well, yeah, or like their primary military tactic in this war
00:08:52.140
which is I realized Ukrainians had a preset kill limit.
00:09:02.620
Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them
00:09:16.100
And it is one that Russia has used repeatedly throughout history.
00:09:23.400
I'm not going to send you, but I'll put on stage here.
00:09:26.200
Of Wikipedia lists of the countries with the lowest homicide rates
00:09:30.060
and the countries with the lowest fertility rates.
00:09:32.260
And which countries do you get was like astoundingly low.
00:09:36.220
So let's just go with the astoundingly low homicide rate countries.
00:09:39.200
You're getting countries like Qatar, Singapore, Japan,
00:09:46.820
all countries that are known for having insanely low fertility rates,
00:09:54.140
The off the charts for homicide is also off the charts for fertility.
00:09:59.540
So it's almost like you need something to blank for,
00:10:07.140
So I'm actually going to argue at the end of this particular episode
00:10:10.680
that these two things aren't actually directly connected.
00:10:15.140
And it is a third thing that we are measuring here.
00:10:18.500
We will do a separate episode on that third thing.
00:10:21.920
I want you to take this episode to focus on just murder and fertility rates.
00:10:29.220
that there is totally nothing to this observation.
00:10:38.700
like typically when you look at murders that happen from the greater
00:10:45.080
they're typically motivated by somebody disrespecting honor-based murders.
00:10:55.540
which means that you have to have a level of self-respect.
00:11:00.600
because I do not think this is another thing where I'll often notice,
00:11:03.980
the bio human biodiversity types that really the,
00:11:08.440
they're always like trying to divide broad ethnic groups by behavioral
00:11:18.520
I can just see their fingers lifting as they prepare for their cope
00:11:26.760
look at like groups in the U S that like have such high homicide rates.
00:11:31.980
I'm very glad that you didn't break out the different white
00:11:34.900
populations because you've noticed that the group I'm from also has
00:11:40.580
And I don't know if we should be proud of that.
00:11:47.240
I'm not even like not particularly proud of it.
00:11:49.420
And we had done this in another episode where people today don't know how
00:11:54.700
historically violent the back country or the greater Appalachian cultural
00:12:00.540
So I'll just read a note that I have in another episode because it's a part of
00:12:05.600
American history that a lot of people don't know about.
00:12:07.680
And it causes them to ask you why you people don't know about it.
00:12:11.020
It's because this was a population that while large in America,
00:12:14.720
never really produced much of our cultural exports until the modern country music
00:12:27.860
And so people just are unaware of how violent parts of America were.
00:12:34.000
Englishman Thomas Ash wrote an account of his visit to Wheeling,
00:12:37.320
where he witnessed a fight between two working class men.
00:12:42.800
one from Kentucky and one for Virginia argued over who had the better horse.
00:12:46.460
And I would note when you are fighting in one of these cultural groups,
00:12:51.400
because I come from one of these cultural groups,
00:12:54.400
which is often seen as sort of the capital of greater Appalachia,
00:12:58.280
and my family was like a mix of this group and the Puritan group is you're
00:13:01.760
there's rules about when you're allowed to fight,
00:13:08.280
that you have some degree of dominion or responsibility for,
00:13:11.920
So if they insult your parents or your little brother,
00:13:20.540
like direct insults are not something that you can honorably get in a
00:13:30.460
Like this would be similar to insulting your wife.
00:13:35.720
That's not the way somebody who had a huge attachment to their horse would
00:13:42.340
the horse is somebody who you don't know who Bucephalus is.
00:13:45.460
Bucephalus was Alexander the Great's horse who he named a city after and
00:13:48.840
had like a major breakdown when the horse died trauma of his life.
00:13:54.900
I want the cartoon about Alexander and Bucephalus in Adventure Time style.
00:14:04.100
they insulted a animal that had slavishly worked for you and we're
00:14:14.660
but I don't know if I'm going to be on board with how this fight plays out,
00:14:18.620
A somewhat standard debate in Bucephalus outskirts of small towns.
00:14:21.720
Not willing to acquiesce to a difference of opinion,
00:14:25.020
along with the Englishman Ash and a large portion of the town took off to a
00:14:32.160
but the two men unwilling to end their feud challenged each other to a
00:14:40.240
Ash watched in astonishment as the man for Virginia took the Kentucky into the
00:14:46.200
grasped his hair and struck his sums in the man's eye socket and recovered
00:14:53.680
the Kentuckian leaned over and bit off the nose of the man of Virginia.
00:15:00.180
The man for Virginia took the Kentucky and silver lip between his teeth and
00:15:05.360
The man from Virginia's hand's nose was carried off the Victor while the
00:15:10.460
His eyes damaged from the attempted gouging his torn lower lip flipping
00:15:18.280
but rather a tradition of fighting that was particular to this greater
00:15:21.380
Appalachian region of the United States in the 18th century.
00:15:24.740
It was called rough and tumble and betting was prevalent and rules
00:15:32.580
bite and even scratch out with their fingernails sharpened just for that
00:15:36.640
Eye gouging became the ultimate finish in rough and tumble with men being
00:15:40.980
Fingernails sharply filed and coated in wax dug into the opponent's eye
00:15:45.520
attempting to literally rip out an aisle off and hold it a group as a coup
00:16:03.920
he compared his opponent's eyes to a gooseberry.
00:16:16.980
Did you practice that light in the car on your way here?
00:16:23.580
this is also the culture that produced Andrew Jackson,
00:16:29.820
But no one can not say that Andrew Jackson was an incredibly violent human
00:16:35.160
The campaign ads against him had him sitting on top of a pile of human
00:16:42.420
this is not like a new phenomenon for this region.
00:16:49.520
Top to bottom in terms of what masculinity means.
00:16:53.720
And it's something that you actually see in their descendants today.
00:17:01.380
I got in lots of physical fights up until high school when I developed more
00:17:07.560
But when I was not as myelinated as I am today,
00:17:11.020
myelination helps with shutting down a person's impulsive impulses,
00:17:18.440
If you look at other people from similar cultures,
00:17:20.580
and this is something I've noticed is this cultural group has become a
00:17:24.560
really dominant in specific professions recently.
00:17:28.300
And it turns out that they are really good at specific things.
00:17:35.000
as a huge chunk of the U S military is drawn from this region.
00:17:38.120
Other profession where they're really common is venture capital with,
00:17:45.060
He displays many of this rough and tumble characteristic,
00:17:48.140
which makes me think that the cultures that he's from in Africa may have
00:17:55.460
you hear about him regularly getting in fistfights with his brother,
00:17:58.320
they'd be like bleeding and rolling between the cubicles fighting.
00:18:05.540
I have family members who've worked in venture capital and they would talk to
00:18:08.740
me about how it was like once every other months,
00:18:12.340
a fist fight would break out among the partners of the forum at board
00:18:23.280
and I've seen this at two different venture capitalist parties that ran
00:18:27.380
really late is specifically the women fighting for the men's
00:18:35.080
Sometimes it will be two people's wives or it will be two women who are
00:18:45.340
I don't know of any other culture where this is a still practice thing to
00:18:57.840
and I should note here that this is not like the men in the room are telling
00:19:03.140
the women you two you have to go fight like Andrew Tate might do something like
00:19:10.300
It's something that is organically put on by the women and it's typically done
00:19:17.900
by the two highest status women in the room and is seen as something that
00:19:30.080
The point is it is that they're showing that they are the type of person who
00:19:35.440
So a few things I would note one as somebody who gets invited to many sorts
00:19:42.940
this is not something I have seen at any other elite type cultural group.
00:19:47.800
I would never see this was like a group of Catholics or a wall street party.
00:19:53.340
This is very unique to this specific type of BC culture,
00:19:56.940
which is dominated by these Appalachian cultural groups.
00:20:05.400
There is a type of female fighting that is designed to be erotic that some
00:20:09.780
cultures practice or that you might see on TV or something like that.
00:20:13.540
This was very specifically meant to be fist to the face type fighting.
00:20:20.620
I remember one of the girls was able to kick the other girl in the face.
00:20:28.740
which means she must've had practice doing this or done something like this
00:20:32.960
And I think that this shows that there is a subconscious understanding that when
00:20:41.640
men of this cultural group are looking for a woman who is martial in her
00:20:52.500
when you're looking at the martial nature of different cultural groups,
00:20:56.420
typically it goes either almost neither men or women ever fight in a cultural
00:21:04.780
This is where you would see in like the cultural group that individuals like
00:21:11.900
it's both the men and the women are expected to be able to fight.
00:21:17.740
there isn't the same degradation of women that you have in the cultural groups
00:21:24.160
because that would be seen as like a bad thing.
00:21:26.700
Like if I secured a woman who couldn't defend herself or wasn't rough and
00:21:32.540
that would mean that I would have weak children and I wouldn't want that.
00:21:36.940
And this is seen in the type of woman that's glorified in a lot of country
00:21:42.000
If you want to see a really long discussion of this phenomenon,
00:21:51.040
the noodling girl who I always put in those videos,
00:22:04.380
And I would note here that this practice of having girls fight for a crowd is not
00:22:08.780
just something that's done in this cultural group when they are in sort of the elite class
00:22:14.140
It's fairly common mud wrestling and stuff like that throughout the group.
00:22:19.220
And you can see from a short video of one of these that I'm going to play here,
00:22:23.620
that the two women doing this are clearly not being objectified by the men.
00:22:30.800
They are showing essentially raising their status within the group and they are seen as cool.
00:22:40.480
I guess it's the best word to put it like high status for this thing that they are doing.
00:22:48.700
like I want these two women to fight to show how much power I have over them.
00:23:21.200
And this is not something that other cultural groups,
00:23:39.100
They describe specifically between Musk and his brother brawls that took place.
00:23:55.160
Why would applying wax to a sharpened long nail make it more effective at gouging out
00:24:04.460
but I cannot provide any information or assistance related to harming others or causing bodily
00:24:12.080
Perhaps we could have a thoughtful discussion about more positive topics that don't involve
00:24:16.940
Is there something else I can help you with today?
00:24:34.640
like trying to find out you have somebody on the ground in front of you and you're typing in like,
00:24:57.760
I was not paying good enough attention because I was trying to find out the secret of,
00:25:13.080
if you look at the fights that happened in Congress and stuff,
00:25:15.980
they were often started by people in these cultural groups.
00:25:23.640
but those women with really sharp acrylic nails,
00:25:31.020
one of these rough and tumble Appalachian dudes,
00:25:39.720
like all these like rough and like these like bearded men would be like huge muscles,
00:25:47.600
it's just sitting in there next to all the women.
00:25:52.080
I think that the reason they succeeded so well in venture capital as a cultural group,
00:26:07.920
It's that they are willing to make big decisions with a lot of confidence pretty quickly and decisively.
00:26:21.900
if you're talking about somebody who's from this cultural group and succeeded in Silicon Valley,
00:26:26.400
you get stories from his family of stuff like his grandmom told his dad that if he came home drunk one more time,
00:26:34.780
I don't know what I'm allowed to say on YouTube anymore.
00:26:44.960
somebody else in the family put him out before he was seriously injured.
00:26:51.240
you guys couldn't possibly be from this extremist cultural group.
00:26:58.860
you have a lot of receipts that JD Vance is from this cultural group.
00:27:10.640
that is because the detection algorithm that you use for quote unquote nerdy dweeb is actually coding for code swapping appellation,
00:27:20.520
trying their best and slightly failing to fit in with upper class wafts so that they can get a job.
00:27:31.600
but this is also why they get into fights and also why they have higher fertility rates.
00:27:36.220
And in part of the higher fertility rate is downstream of likely a faster marriage rate.
00:27:43.780
I'm going to look at average age of first marriage.
00:27:51.160
It's average age of first marriage is what this is really heavily correlated with.
00:27:54.680
that's why one of the big phrases that remains left over from this culture is get her done.
00:28:01.700
and that's what your mom kept saying when she wanted like all sorts of things.
00:28:10.980
Two other fun maps that are a result of this impulsiveness.
00:28:15.780
The first is the number of opposite gender partners living together who are not married.
00:28:21.860
And you can see it's incredibly rare in this region when contrasted with other parts of the United States.
00:28:27.080
And then the second is the obvious consequence of this behavior, which is that, yes, while they're having more kids, they also have higher divorce rates in these states.
00:28:35.220
But the, if you look at other, and this is something I've noticed more and more as a key problem in fertility collapse, is a lack of decisiveness.
00:28:45.840
When I look at people who should be able to, you know, lock down a partner, the key area, and I think that this is downstream of a lot of the Catholic fertility collapse that we're seeing right now, because I mentioned like a massive Catholic fertility collapse.
00:29:02.620
They want to think through all the options first.
00:29:08.140
There is a discomfort in making decisions when the option in front of you isn't either the perfect option or an option that you have fully and exhaustively researched.
00:29:18.780
So do you think the way that Jewish groups get around this is they just take away options from at least women?
00:29:26.400
Well, I think the, the, the way that I'm talking like very conservative Jews.
00:29:32.600
And this is, this is, this is, I don't think that like when, when I notice my conservative Jews who aren't getting married, it is a hundred percent due to over pickiness and not being willing to just like.
00:29:44.960
Well, that's, well, that's why I was thinking to myself, wait, why are Jews not screwed then?
00:29:48.540
And I'm assuming totally different religious cultural technology.
00:29:51.300
We can do a different episode on it, but like Jews are high fertility for a completely different reason than these groups are high fertility.
00:30:00.500
Which means that I wouldn't expect murderousness to correlate with fertility within Jewish populations.
00:30:06.620
If you look in Israel, I doubt the highest crime regions of Israel, when you control for urban populations are also going to be the highest fertility.
00:30:16.480
In fact, I would bet that they'd be the lowest fertility.
00:30:18.980
Whereas in this cultural group, it is going to lead to higher fertility, which is really interesting.
00:30:24.440
And, and also consider here where, if you're thinking about like the fights that people are getting in, in boardrooms and stuff like that, these are fights that are coming out of having too much passion for a particular position or idea.
00:30:39.700
It's like a over degree of vitality that's leading to these fights.
00:30:43.660
Or if you look at Slavic fights, it's like an under degree of vitality that's causing the fights.
00:30:48.180
If you're talking about like normal ranges of, of, of, of individual vitalism, if you're like way off the charts in one direction, you're going to be getting in fights all the time.
00:30:56.560
And if you're way under the charts in another direction, you're going to be getting in fights all the time.
00:31:00.380
I also noticed that, and I think this is useful.
00:31:05.160
Like one of the things I'm always trying to do is individually attempt to peer into myself and understand my emotions and my impulses, and then best communicate them to other people who come from different biological or cultural backgrounds than myself, and therefore might not be able to understand what these impulses feel like.
00:31:32.460
And so it's useful for them to, when they're trying to model another person who's different from them.
00:31:37.040
So what I would note, how was this motivated in this population?
00:31:41.240
I can at least say with myself, if you look at my genetic scores, I'm on the 98th percentile of endogenous testosterone in my developmental environment.
00:31:51.160
And even today with tons of kids in a monogamous relationship, just so you know what I mean by this, you are, your testosterone is supposed to go down with every kid you have.
00:32:03.060
You don't want to accidentally murder one of your kids or something.
00:32:05.640
Like you already secured the partner, you already won.
00:32:07.860
This high-risk, high-reward chemical can decrease in your body.
00:32:12.400
When somebody, a male is in a long-term monogamous relationship, their testosterone decreases.
00:32:15.740
Even now, I'm above average testosterone, despite all of this.
00:32:19.260
So it appears that this was in part motivated by just unusually high testosterone in these groups.
00:32:25.500
And I would assume if you did a map of the United States, you would find the males of these populations have unusually high rates of testosterone.
00:32:32.320
And two, I think it's motivated by a, I guess I'd say like higher biological urge for fighting.
00:32:45.620
Which I definitely feel in myself within like games and online environments.
00:32:51.260
I really tend towards games where killing people is an option.
00:32:58.260
Do you, I mean, you don't really kill people in Civ and you love Civ.
00:33:11.180
It's like saying that someone who's into BDSM is all about having sex.
00:33:32.800
And I should note that I don't play games like this very much anymore.
00:33:36.220
This is an anomaly for me just because it was a uniquely good game in a universe that I liked.
00:33:40.420
And that's actually an interesting thing to put a pin in.
00:33:44.780
As my testosterone has dropped, because I've been in a long-term monogamous relationship and had a number of kids,
00:33:50.380
the behavior patterns that seem driven by stabbiness instinct seem to have gone down a lot.
00:33:57.840
Like playing shooter type games instead of just pure strategy games.
00:34:04.440
For example, I recently went back to an anime that I used to quite like called When They Cry.
00:34:11.480
If you want to get a feel of what it's like, you can just search When They Cry scenes and you'll get an idea.
00:34:16.460
But I rewatched it recently and I was like, why did I enjoy this?
00:34:20.460
This is just people dying over and over and over again.
00:34:23.640
And for people who don't know what the theme of When They Cry was, because it had multiple seasons,
00:34:28.080
is every episode takes place in the same town over and over again.
00:34:32.660
And everybody ends up dying or most of the characters end up dying by the end of an episode.
00:34:37.440
And I was like, this must have been appealing to some instinct that I had in the past that I no longer have.
00:34:44.680
And this is an interesting question to ask, and we'll do likely a separate episode on this as well.
00:34:49.780
Like, why do any humans have the propensity to want to kill other humans?
00:34:54.580
By this is what I mean, and people can be like, humans don't have this propensity.
00:34:57.180
And I'm like, well, most video games, they're like, well, not all video games.
00:35:01.240
Like, you take The Sims and people will joke that, like, The Sims is a swimming pool murder simulator
00:35:14.680
So you take Roller Coaster Tycoon, and one of the first things that everyone does is
00:35:20.020
create those roller coasters that just throw people into the crowd.
00:35:23.980
Near the end, it launched the cars into a small shed with a sign on the side that said,
00:35:34.760
Or Mr. Bone's wild ride, where they have people in the endless line.
00:35:39.580
The ride, you know, it's a thing where they'll, like, have the ride go on forever.
00:35:42.940
So anyone who's been on the slash V slash board at 4chan probably knows about Mr. Bone's
00:35:50.420
For those who don't, it was a ride someone made for Roller Coaster Tycoon.
00:35:56.320
It was one of those really slow motor car rides but with a twist.
00:36:00.580
It had 30,696 feet of track and a ride time of 70 real-time minutes, around 4 years in game
00:36:09.420
In addition there were those props of the skeleton holding out his top hat scattered around here
00:36:18.020
Needless to say, there were a lot of passengers, screaming I want to get off Mr. Bone's wild
00:36:27.760
Once the ride came to a stop, the passengers found themselves on a long path that took about
00:36:35.580
Once they reached the end, they found themselves facing a sign that, read Mr. Bone's says, the
00:36:43.740
The path led straight back to the entrance of Mr. Bone's wild ride.
00:36:54.280
I think people from other cultural groups, like my belief, and I can't model a male from
00:36:59.440
another cultural group, but I actually suspect that the rates of doing stuff like this might
00:37:06.380
be much, much lower for males in other cultural groups.
00:37:13.980
And this impulse, I think, is created by having, one, the background stabby impulse, like the
00:37:18.420
extra like that, and then, two, a willingness to make life-altering decisions with patchy
00:37:27.540
information and then proceed to do it aggressively.
00:37:34.600
Well, you can say men of action, but I think it's better to delineate what's actually meant
00:37:39.440
by that because, yeah, and I also think that this comes back to the point I mentioned earlier,
00:37:46.200
which I want to talk with you a little bit about.
00:37:48.060
A lot of this, I think, comes downstream of age of first marriage.
00:37:52.780
What information do you feel you need on a person before making a life-altering decision
00:37:57.960
And I think that if the cultural groups that have a genetic or cultural propensity towards
00:38:06.040
inaction around major life decisions until full information is had or lower levels of
00:38:12.000
vitalism, either people in those cultural groups need to create rule systems for themselves
00:38:16.880
around defaulting to big decisions or build specific cultural technologies that are meant
00:38:23.800
to offset the things that are killing them, like delayed marriage.
00:38:26.900
When I mentioned delayed marriage is killing Catholics, like this is actually in the data.
00:38:30.920
Catholics have a desperately low fertility rate in the United States.
00:38:33.680
It looks like the native-born Catholic fertility rate in the United States is below the secular
00:38:37.760
fertility rate right now, or at least below the average fertility rate, which is shocking.
00:38:44.340
But more than that, Catholics actually have a normal high religiosity fertility rate once
00:38:51.680
It's just they get married super late when contrasted with other people.
00:38:55.200
An age of marriage, I think, is an underrated element.
00:38:58.060
Well, an age of marriage also is, I guess it comes from like a, how impatient are you about
00:39:08.380
Like when I got to college, like I left college, like before I was supposed to for graduation
00:39:14.860
Like I just could not wait to get to the first thing.
00:39:19.840
Yeah, I did not go to my Cambridge graduation, but also I think UK graduations take a really
00:39:29.540
I created maps of the town in the week before I was there.
00:39:37.880
But that's also why I got married at a relatively young age and like why my brother did.
00:39:42.480
Like my brother found his wife on the first day of college.
00:39:45.460
I found my wife, you know, desperately looking for a wife before my graduate degree, because
00:39:54.900
I was like, look, this is a major life milestone that has been on the table for me basically
00:40:07.560
And so I was very impatient about completing this life milestone.
00:40:16.140
And I've noticed when I look at like my Catholic friends and stuff like that, there is not this
00:40:21.700
And that's who I'm using when I'm trying to model a cultural group that's not as murdery.
00:40:25.040
Because, you know, they were, although they did have high rates of organized crime with
00:40:29.400
both the mafia and the mob, but they generally, if you look at places where they settled
00:40:33.840
disproportionately, just seem to have lower rates of homicide overall.
00:40:36.820
Well, I feel like, and this is too off the rails for us to investigate now, but in an
00:40:42.440
area that was heavily dominated by organized crime, I would still imagine murders to be
00:40:46.640
lower and crime to be lower because it's more about now there's very tight governance.
00:40:55.040
It is the governance of a crime family or a syndicate.
00:40:58.920
I think about other areas where you have big organized crime syndicates.
00:41:03.360
Yeah, I think like Japan, like was the Yakuza or the triad in China, even when they are engaged
00:41:12.260
So any murders that these groups are creating are murders based on rules, whereas the murders
00:41:18.100
created by like the greater Appalachian cultural groups are murders based on passion.
00:41:23.240
Like they're individual in the moment acts, not, okay, well, you cross the organization or you
00:41:33.940
However, this is where I'm going to say, I think that this is not what we're actually
00:41:38.460
I think this is a factor, but I think this is actually an artifact of something else.
00:41:44.500
Before we do the, because I said I was going to do another episode where I debunk this theory
00:41:50.640
and show what we're, what we were actually looking at all along.
00:41:53.460
So I'm about to send you another thing on a WhatsApp here.
00:41:56.280
I actually think what we're seeing here is specifically just the rural Appalachian cultural
00:42:03.340
And it just so happens that that group is more murdery, but I think it's a different aspect
00:42:08.080
of that group that leads to their high fertility rates.
00:42:10.760
I think it's their clan based structure and clan based sense of identity.
00:42:19.520
Well, because we're going to look here at which group in Asia has the most clan based
00:42:26.040
So there's, I'm going to argue that there's three core identity types that a culture can
00:42:30.480
You can either have an individualist sense of identity, a communalist sense of identity,
00:42:38.860
And the Mongolians have a clan based system of identity and very high fertility rates in
00:42:45.000
Whereas the greater Appalachian people also have a clan based system of identity and a very
00:42:52.000
The Slavic people, like where they had the unusually low fertility rates, have a communalist
00:42:58.960
So do the Chinese, so do the Japanese, so do the, and it's more that in communalist environments,
00:43:12.220
I absolutely love you to death, Simone, or maybe not the next episode, maybe the episode
00:43:17.520
after the next, because I'm the next episode, I'm going to do even more data, which will
00:43:22.400
be coming together because I will need to pull from this episode and the next episode before
00:43:27.240
we go to the third episode, which is going to be the coup de grace on how do you actually
00:43:32.620
And it's with clan based group identity, but in the next episode that I'm really excited
00:43:37.520
to do, it was, it's going to be on a study that one of our podcast listeners did.
00:43:42.460
We had a pretty big participant list on Mormon fertility rates and religiosity.
00:43:47.760
And we find that Mormons actually, their fertility rate goes down at the highest rates of religiosity.
00:43:57.280
But we'll be talking about why this is the case.