Based Camp - How China Went Woke： Beijing Should Be Freaking Out

00:00:00.000 Hello, Simone! Today we're going to be doing a stats-heavy episode that I know our fans always love when I can find some interesting and counterintuitive stats to tell us about where the world is going.

00:00:12.280 Good evening.

00:00:12.680 This episode is going to be on internal Chinese politics, the economic situation in China, and how the Chinese population is becoming more and more, you know, we use the title woke here, but it's not exactly woke.

00:00:29.040 Because they're not exactly split among the types of political demographics that we have in the U.S.

00:00:36.000 There isn't the same Republican-Democrat party that you would have in the U.S., but the views of the Chinese people are definitely changing, and in a way that should make the Chinese government very, very nervous.

00:00:49.160 Would you like to know more?

00:00:50.520 So, let's start with a quote here.

00:00:53.740 These are the clear findings that emerged from quantitative research by Stanford professors Jennifer Pan and Ying Quing Zhu.

00:01:01.640 Survey data collected through a variety of channels and methodologies by Pan and Zhu over several years show that Chinese urban residents are more liberal than expected, and more liberal than the official positions of the government.

00:01:14.180 Moreover, the political views of respondents remained relatively stable over time and were correlated across issues in ways comparable to those in democratic countries.

00:01:24.280 It is important to note, however, that policy views in China do not align neatly along pro-slash-anti-regime spectrums, or what might be considered a typical left-right divide, as they do in the United States and many other democracies.

00:01:39.080 Instead, they cluster around preferences for market versus state intervention in the economy, more versus less democracy in the government, and more versus less nationalism.

00:01:50.580 So, one faction wants less nationalism and less government intervention in the markets, and more democracy, and another group wants more intervention, less democracy, and more nationalism, which makes sense as natural clusters.

00:02:04.380 Using surveys conducted from 2012 and 2014 and separately at 2018 and 2019, Pan and Zhu show that Chinese correspondents have coherent policy preferences that are bunded in predictable ways.

00:02:18.940 For example, those that hold politically liberal views are more likely to also support free markets and oppose nationalist foreign policy.

00:02:26.540 Those who support authoritarian political institutions are instead more likely to support state intervention in the economy and a nationalistic foreign policy.

00:02:35.200 And I'll put a figure on screen here.

00:02:36.700 So, that's actually really interesting, because that's different than the, at least, older historic political alignment that we had here in the U.S., which is the more free market people are also the more politically or socially progressive people.

00:02:49.800 Right.

00:02:50.000 And the less free market people are the, so you have a true tanky faction there that is very, you know, pro-nationalism, pro-state control, but also pro-more socially illiberal views.

00:03:03.040 Do you have any thoughts on that before I go further?

00:03:04.340 No, tell me more.

00:03:05.860 I just want to dig into this.

00:03:08.160 All right.

00:03:08.800 So, the surveys carried out between 2004 and 2014 indicate that most respondents had positive views on the system's ability to deliver opportunities in the future and that effort and hard work were rewarded.

00:03:20.360 So, now we're going to look at some graphs.

00:03:22.040 These findings were notable because, as I mentioned, and note I'm pulling from several different articles here, so these aren't all from the same article.

00:03:29.060 These findings were notable because, as mentioned above, inequality increased rapidly after 1978 and has remained stubbornly high since the 2000s in China.

00:03:38.640 Perceptions as to the drivers of inequality are central to the population's sense of fairness and belief in the efficacy of China's economic and political systems.

00:03:48.980 The latest round of surveys, which were conducted over the course of 2023 through an online app, so this is all just important to note when you're looking at this data, are so recent that the Whitney team has yet to publish them in related academic articles.

00:04:00.880 So, you are getting this stuff first.

00:04:03.840 It's clear that there have been significant changes in how people view inequality and opportunities in China economy, signaling less and less responsibility to themselves and more and more to the economic system.

00:04:15.440 So, now we're going to talk about some of these results, and I'm going to put some on screen.

00:04:20.100 So, do you want me to share these with you, Simone, or do you want me to just describe them to you?

00:04:23.740 Describe them.

00:04:25.100 All right.

00:04:25.720 So, here I have put a graph on screen today.

00:04:28.740 It shows in 2004, attribution of why people in China are poor.

00:04:34.280 So, this is why are some people in China poor?

00:04:36.680 The number one reason that people gave in 2004 was lack of ability.

00:04:41.520 In 2023, that has fallen to the number six reason.

00:04:46.500 The number one reason in 2023 that people said so was unequal opportunity.

00:04:53.020 That was six back in 2004.

00:04:55.220 Oh, so, we're moving from an internal to an external locus of control here, which is kind of scary.

00:05:01.660 Exactly.

00:05:02.420 You look at 2004, you had high-ranked things like lack of effort.

00:05:06.280 However, lack of effort is ranked fairly low in 2003.

00:05:09.640 Oh, my.

00:05:11.320 But if you look at an unfair economic system, that was all the way down at eight in 2004.

00:05:16.620 That was ranked at number three.

00:05:18.560 Keep it in mind, number three in China, where you can get unalived for saying things like this.

00:05:23.140 So, there is a cost to signaling these sorts of things.

00:05:28.000 Then, they asked, why are people in China rich?

00:05:32.020 And it used to be in 2004, people would say ability and talent was the number one reason that some people were rich in China.

00:05:38.560 Okay.

00:05:39.020 In 2023, that had moved down to number four.

00:05:41.960 What was number three back in 2004, connections?

00:05:45.320 That was ranked number one in 2023.

00:05:47.340 So, it used to be they said ability and talent.

00:05:49.820 Now, it's connections.

00:05:51.460 And you had a drop across the board in things like high education.

00:05:56.080 It used to be number two as to why some people were rich.

00:05:58.540 Now, it's ranked all the way down at number seven, below even an unfair economic system.

00:06:04.400 Wow.

00:06:05.280 Hard work also dropped.

00:06:06.680 You would think that the CCP, I mean, especially in a nation where there's more control over media and what people are allowed to see, I, as a government official, would have worked harder to make sure that memes like this, that switch people toward an external locus of control, don't spread.

00:06:24.280 How is this happening in a nation that should be able to head this off?

00:06:28.920 So, we're going to talk about that after we get through all the statistics.

00:06:32.280 Okay.

00:06:32.800 Because we're going to talk about the people's, how people shared this information and how the government tried to prevent them from sharing this information.

00:06:38.960 Yeah.

00:06:39.580 Whoa.

00:06:40.640 By the way, you want to know the number two reason that people said people are rich in 2023?

00:06:46.300 Sure.

00:06:46.620 It was all the way down to number six before.

00:06:48.640 Grew up in a rich family.

00:06:49.620 They just don't believe the system is fair or that it's possible to move up anymore.

00:06:52.780 Now, I'm going to put another graph on the screen that looks at explanations for why people in China are rich over time that looks at things like, you know, connections, higher education, hard work, ability and talent.

00:07:05.280 Basically, if you're watching this, instead of just reading all the statistics to you, people should be afraid.

00:07:10.160 Now, I'm going to put another graph.

00:07:11.480 The government should be afraid, I should say.

00:07:13.420 Perceptions of causes of wealth in China and selected post-socialist countries.

00:07:18.960 So, here you see other post-socialist countries.

00:07:21.700 So, you can see, is what's happening in China normal? 0.96

00:07:25.080 And it has two bars, one for China in 2004 and one for China in 2023.

00:07:31.620 And as we can see, the trend is getting worse.

00:07:35.760 And now China is at the same level as other post-socialist countries in terms of the public's belief that ability or hard work helps them get ahead.

00:07:47.620 But what is interesting is that China is still nowhere near other post-socialist countries in terms of a perception of how unfair their economic system is.

00:07:58.600 However, if you have a similar increase over the next decade that we've had from 2004 to 2023, it may catch up.

00:08:06.240 But again, we're looking at lots of stats here and I want to make sure I get through them all.

00:08:09.320 So, explanations of why people in China are poor.

00:08:13.240 Again, we are looking at different dates here on this graph.

00:08:16.860 What you see is for a while it went up.

00:08:20.080 So, like things were good in China for a while.

00:08:21.820 So, you look at something like lack of ability.

00:08:23.380 It was going up from 2004, 58%, to 2014, 64%.

00:08:29.540 But then if you go to 2023, all the way down to 31%.

00:08:33.080 You look at something like lack of effort.

00:08:35.660 51% in 2004.

00:08:37.780 2009, 61%.

00:08:39.420 2014, 63%.

00:08:41.100 Oh, great trend.

00:08:42.320 2023, 33%.

00:08:43.780 Lower than it's ever been.

00:08:45.520 And it's the same when you're looking at things like unequal opportunity or unfair economic systems.

00:08:49.340 But 2023 is the worst year from the perspective of the government in their data.

00:08:55.280 Now, we're looking at a figure that looks at attribution of variation in opportunities.

00:08:59.860 Whether a person becomes rich or remains poor is their own responsibility.

00:09:02.760 That's what was being asked.

00:09:04.120 Agree, neutral, disagree.

00:09:06.240 Again, here you see the stats moving in the wrong direction from what the government would want.

00:09:10.720 Here you look at the question, opportunity for people to succeed is the same for everyone.

00:09:15.080 Again, in this one, you actually see more growth in the neutral category and growths in the negative category with only 20% in 2023 saying that they believed that the opportunities of success were the same for everyone.

00:09:29.940 And keep in mind, this is a government where you could be unaligned for these sorts of opinions, which we will talk about shortly.

00:09:34.800 In our country, effort is always rewarded.

00:09:38.000 Only 28% said that in 2023.

00:09:40.440 Oh, boy.

00:09:41.980 Gosh.

00:09:42.460 So, yikes.

00:09:45.580 Now, let's look at something like, given the current domestic situation, there is still great opportunity for people like you to improve their standard of living.

00:09:52.920 Only 28% of Chinese people believe this anymore.

00:09:55.380 And you wonder why no one's having kids.

00:09:56.900 No one has hope anywhere in this country.

00:09:58.700 Yeah, this is definitely, like, this explains lying flat.

00:10:02.080 This explains we are the last generation.

00:10:04.440 Explain what lying flat is and we are the last generation is before we go further.

00:10:07.360 Right.

00:10:08.080 Lying flat is a philosophy that sort of started to arise around the pandemic in China, per my understanding.

00:10:13.560 Basically, the concept being that you can do sort of the bare minimum.

00:10:17.740 Yeah, you'll work.

00:10:18.660 Yeah, you'll do what you're supposed to do for the government.

00:10:20.600 But you're not going to do a bit more than that because you're not going to be rewarded for it.

00:10:26.800 What's the point?

00:10:27.960 Well, it's more than that.

00:10:30.240 It got its name from a guy who made money by acting roles as dead people for a few months a year and the rest of the year lived on as little as possible.

00:10:38.420 So the idea of lying flat is doing literally the minimum you have to to survive.

00:10:43.260 Take on some part-time job, maybe for three months, then try to live off that money for as long as you can, often in, like, group houses or with a SO who you don't plan to have kids with because you don't want to do an ounce more than you actually need to do to survive.

00:10:57.320 And you can see with these numbers why people would feel this way.

00:11:00.440 Remember I mentioned that, like, oh, do you have opportunity to increase your standard of living?

00:11:04.680 And I said only 28 people said that in 2023.

00:11:06.760 In 2014, it was 62%.

00:11:09.560 These numbers are dropping precipitously and quickly.

00:11:14.340 Then you talk about the We Are the Last Generation movement.

00:11:16.380 This came from a viral video in China of CCP officers going to a family and berating them for not following COVID restrictions.

00:11:26.180 And they said this will affect you in the next three generations of your family.

00:11:29.460 And they go, that's okay because we are the last generation.

00:11:32.420 I mean, a lot of Chinese people feel that way.

00:11:34.280 It is part of why the government pressuring people to have kids doesn't work because people feel like it's just some wealthy class trying to pressure people to have kids to live lives without opportunity so this wealthy class can maintain their power and status.

00:11:48.960 It's an act of subversive resistance.

00:11:51.080 Yeah, unarmed power and status.

00:11:53.880 So explanations of family wealth.

00:11:56.620 So here we get a share of respondents who said their family economic situation had gotten worse compared to five years ago by income group.

00:12:04.060 So if you look at 2014, it was only 7%.

00:12:07.940 2023, 32%, like more than, I think it's probably about four times higher.

00:12:15.520 And that's for people making under 50K a year.

00:12:18.820 If we look at middle income people in China, okay, how is the middle income group?

00:12:22.540 50 to 100K a year.

00:12:23.560 How are they doing?

00:12:24.220 In 2014, 3% said that it hadn't gotten worse.

00:12:30.220 And in 2009, it was only 1% said it hadn't gotten worse.

00:12:33.460 24% are now saying their situation is worse.

00:12:36.820 Oh, okay.

00:12:37.980 Well.

00:12:38.520 So 3% versus 24%.

00:12:40.320 Things are breaking.

00:12:42.520 If you look at the 100K plus, in 2009, literally 0% felt that.

00:12:48.500 In 2014, it was 1% felt that way.

00:12:51.560 So very small.

00:12:52.240 In 2023, 19%.

00:12:54.700 People are falling off an economic cliff in China right now.

00:13:01.420 And how is the government responding to this, okay?

00:13:04.300 They are trying to whip up nationalist fervor, and it is in part working.

00:13:10.120 No.

00:13:10.720 So in China, a form of wokeism expresses itself as blind nationalism.

00:13:17.580 So let's talk about how this has affected some international companies.

00:13:20.840 So we can understand what it's like to do business in China these days.

00:13:24.040 You know, not just having ports randomly closed.

00:13:25.900 Not having them just close a random part of your supply chain during COVID.

00:13:29.340 Which, keep in mind, affects companies in a huge way.

00:13:32.340 Because now the rest of their supply chain stops working.

00:13:35.200 You know, oh, I just make part of the chip in China.

00:13:37.580 Well, now you can't make the phone.

00:13:39.380 Even if it was only 1% of the manufacturing process. 0.79

00:13:41.940 Even if you can't find an alternate supplier, you're screwed.

00:13:44.380 But, what happens if you're selling into China?

00:13:48.660 The German luxury car maker, this is about Mercedes-Benz, the German luxury car maker posted

00:13:54.880 an Instagram photo of a white coupe parked on a beach with the quote, quote, look at situations

00:14:00.860 from all angles, and you will become more open, end quote.

00:14:04.000 The seemingly benign ad irritated China's internet users and state media alike because the quote

00:14:10.440 was attributed to someone they consider a dangerous separatist, the Dalai Lama.

00:14:15.180 The Mercedes-Benz quickly responded to the online outrage by deleting the ad and posting

00:14:21.420 an apology on Weibo, a Chinese Twitter-esque microblogging site.

00:14:26.840 We fully understand the incident has hurt feelings of Chinese people, including our employees

00:14:32.520 in China, wrote the Weibo statement.

00:14:35.860 In light of this, we will immediately take measures to deepen our understandings.

00:14:40.120 of Chinese culture and values, including our overseas colleagues, to ensure this won't 1.00

00:14:45.240 happen again.

00:14:46.480 Now, for people who don't know what happened, the result is this.

00:14:48.980 People were burning Mercedes-Benz cars.

00:14:51.360 People who owned a Mercedes were burning their own cars.

00:14:54.160 Oh! 0.60

00:14:54.660 In the streets.

00:14:55.880 Note, the clip I'm about to show you is actually about a different freak out about a luxury car

00:15:00.420 company in China, but it gives you an idea.

00:15:02.620 What you're seeing is a BMW showroom in China.

00:15:04.500 This was taken today.

00:15:05.820 And what you can see there is it says, you know,

00:15:07.900 this basically says, um, get the hell, it's like BMW, get the hell back to Germany.

00:15:15.440 Get out of China. 0.99

00:15:16.540 And it's like spray painted, smashed on the windshield.

00:15:19.860 Um, and we've got another clip for you here, which is maybe even a little more extreme.

00:15:28.060 We've got a guy throwing gasoline all inside his BMW.

00:15:31.720 Setting it on fire.

00:15:46.420 Okay.

00:15:46.920 So, uh, you might be wondering what's going on this, but that's the way the Chinese government

00:15:52.920 works.

00:15:53.320 It's in a nationalist direction.

00:15:56.240 They don't mind how much they whip off fervor, but I think this is going to bite them in the 0.99

00:16:00.140 butt one day. 0.99

00:16:01.100 Now let's look at it.

00:16:03.420 Something else where this happened in a Chinese language survey sent out by customers in January,

00:16:09.180 Marriott international listed Tibet, Hong Kong, Manchu, and Taiwan as options on a question,

00:16:15.500 asking customers, their countries of residence.

00:16:18.360 Obviously this caused China to absolutely freak out and start banning people from going to Marriott.

00:16:24.780 And I will look to the right back and find some crazy responses to this, but this shows that even the

00:16:28.780 most benign things can cause freak outs because the government will attempt to whip people up.

00:16:33.960 And you can say, well, why aren't people reacting as strongly?

00:16:37.240 Let's talk about some of the crazy things the government has done to try to prevent protests.

00:16:40.980 So a lot of people are like, why would you do zero COVID?

00:16:43.440 Remember I was talking about how it affected supply chains and stuff like that.

00:16:45.940 It seems insane.

00:16:47.260 But if you know that there's going to be an economic collapse coming and you can't do anything about it

00:16:50.780 and you're a totalitarian government, well, what's the number one thing you want to do?

00:16:53.580 You want to restrict people.

00:16:55.100 They never rolled back most of the COVID, for example, tracking apps that track where you are

00:17:00.700 and can lock you down in location.

00:17:02.620 And we saw in instances, there was an instance, for example, where the government was afraid of a bank run

00:17:06.900 because a government somewhat supported bank had basically stolen everyone's money.

00:17:12.620 And so people, of course, wanted to go and withdraw their money.

00:17:15.280 And to prevent them from doing this, to prevent the bank run or even protests outside of the bank,

00:17:21.980 because then people were saying, oh, I'm going to go protest,

00:17:24.160 the government would lock the apps, basically assign people as having COVID,

00:17:29.040 who had money in that bank or who had recently talked about potentially protesting.

00:17:34.340 And then they would start locking the apps of people who had come into contact with those people.

00:17:39.080 They were using the contagion metrics that they had previously worked into their social media apps.

00:17:45.700 For social contagion.

00:17:47.200 For social contagion, yeah.

00:17:48.540 Wow.

00:17:49.620 I mean, it works.

00:17:51.460 It's elegant in that way, isn't it?

00:17:54.000 Yes.

00:17:54.440 Now let's talk about how people have tried to push back and what the government has done to these sorts of people.

00:17:59.500 Before we go full on, I'm going to give the stage to you.

00:18:02.940 The white paper protests, also known as the A4 revolution, were a series of demonstrations that took place across China on November 2020.

00:18:11.520 So why were they protesting with pieces of blank A4 paper?

00:18:15.740 Because they knew if they protested against anything specific, the government could unalive them.

00:18:22.160 That's what the government historically did to protesters.

00:18:24.300 It would use these tracking apps to not just round up the protesters in the middle of the night.

00:18:29.020 That's typically what they would do.

00:18:30.140 So they'd say, okay, well, you're not allowed to say X or you're not allowed to say Y.

00:18:33.380 And anyone who has says that, well, they get rounded up in the middle of the night.

00:18:35.920 And so does anyone they've come in contact with.

00:18:37.880 And so the people thought, well, let's just protest with white pieces of paper.

00:18:42.280 Okay.

00:18:43.440 Seems fair, right?

00:18:45.140 And they were primarily a response to zero COVID.

00:18:48.100 Now, key aspects of the protest include the protests were sparked by a deadly apartment fire on November 24, 2022, where at least 10 people died.

00:18:57.120 Many people believe the victims were unable to escape due to COVID restrictions.

00:19:01.300 Specifically, they had been welded inside the apartment and the doors had been blocked.

00:19:05.660 And the fire happened because of like bad government oversight.

00:19:08.780 You know, a lot of places in China, they will show videos of like, you pick up a fire hydrant and you learn that just due to bureaucratic incompetence and people trying to scam each other because there's so many scams being run there.

00:19:22.160 They'll be empty or full of silly string or something like that.

00:19:24.680 A woman can be seen trying to extinguish a fire pile was the extinguisher, but to no avail. 0.54

00:19:31.100 At a construction site, workers were testing a fire extinguisher and discovered it could not put out a fire, then switched to another one and still the same.

00:19:39.200 Many swindlers impersonate firefighters to perform fake fire prevention inspections on businesses, only to peddle overpriced firefighting equipment.

00:19:47.460 A fire broke out on the 18th floor of a residential building in Buji Street, Longgang District, Shenzhen.

00:19:54.440 Firefighters responding to the incident found that fire hydrants in the building's corridor were dry.

00:19:59.900 Residents revealed that in this large residential area, the fire hydrants had been dry for many years.

00:20:04.940 Last year in Guangdong, a woman accidentally damaged a fire hydrant.

00:20:09.480 It led to the revelation that the fire hydrant was a mere facade, with no connecting water supply.

00:20:14.860 This situation is common in residential communities in China.

00:20:18.300 In a residential community in Bozhou, Anhui, a person filming a video demonstrated that the fire hydrant was simply buried in the ground, with nothing connected below.

00:20:27.680 A similar situation was discovered in a neighborhood in Qiannan Autonomous Prefecture, Guizhou Province.

00:20:36.080 The protest demonstration spread to major cities across China, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shendo, and Wuhan.

00:20:43.140 They, at first, were focused on COVID restrictions, but then they began to call on things like,

00:20:47.920 we want freedom and step down Xi Jinping, step down Communist Party.

00:20:51.860 Wow.

00:20:52.380 And how did the government respond to this?

00:20:55.420 Because they began to disappear people.

00:20:58.140 That was generally what happened.

00:21:00.060 And since then, the protests have largely disappeared.

00:21:02.620 So the way the government typically reacts to protests like this is they'll loosen whatever was being complained about,

00:21:09.280 and they'll disappear anyone who was involved in the protests.

00:21:11.460 And if they were more severe or more prominent, they'll disappear anyone who they had contact with.

00:21:15.480 And in terms of, there's ads in China.

00:21:18.220 I'm going to see if I can find one to put on the screen here.

00:21:20.420 Where they have unaliving vans now for criminals, where they don't even take time to take you to prison.

00:21:27.040 They just drive by in a van.

00:21:29.040 They take you to the van.

00:21:30.180 And they let the public know that these exist.

00:21:32.900 And they just put you down.

00:21:35.020 In the van.

00:21:35.900 In the van.

00:21:36.740 Yeah.

00:21:36.940 They have the whole straps and everything and everything like that in the van.

00:21:40.120 When I was living in China for 10 years, I mean, I knew that there were death vans in China,

00:21:45.480 but it was always one of those dark things that lived in conversation, not necessarily in real life.

00:21:52.800 But China's death vans or execution vans, these cars that just show up and execute you, 0.98

00:22:00.020 for stuff that I'll explain to you later, and they take you away forever,

00:22:04.400 they're real.

00:22:05.400 They're very, very real.

00:22:07.580 The crazy thing is that they want their citizens to know about the vans,

00:22:13.780 and they really, really want them to feel scared.

00:22:16.940 I'm not kidding.

00:22:18.020 Not only does this death van pull up and take your life, it's being promoted.

00:22:22.520 Before I go any further, if you don't know this channel that I'm playing this content from,

00:22:26.680 I strongly suggest it.

00:22:28.240 This guy does.

00:22:29.160 Well, there's sort of like three channels.

00:22:31.140 It's a network of channels.

00:22:32.060 There's Serpent, Dead A, YOWY86, and China Fact Chasers. 1.00

00:22:36.480 China Fact Chasers is the channel they do together,

00:22:38.600 and that's the one I strongly suggest if you're just checking out any of them.

00:22:41.560 But a good way to stay up to date was what's really going on in China these days.

00:22:44.700 That's actually true.

00:23:06.340 You will be taken out to be cremated, but you'll just be put into another van.

00:23:09.700 I kid you not.

00:23:10.340 They have cremation vans.

00:23:12.480 They really love this whole mobile death thing in China.

00:23:19.020 You see how this is framed?

00:23:29.100 It's like, how would you be executed?

00:23:31.620 This is going to happen to you.

00:23:33.180 You're supposed to enter this as like a POV.

00:23:36.000 This is from your perspective.

00:23:37.620 In fact, just back in 2001, they were still bringing people to stadiums to execute them

00:23:43.080 in public to make people feel like, wow, the government does stuff about criminals, and

00:23:48.280 I better not be like that.

00:23:49.740 It is honestly more dystopian in China now than a lot of dystopian books.

00:23:53.640 When people are like, they wouldn't really begin forced insemination in China.

00:23:57.220 I'm like, they have drive-by murder vans that they tell you about.

00:24:02.400 Yeah, they would.

00:24:03.820 And why are they becoming so totalitarian?

00:24:06.460 Because they're getting scared.

00:24:08.360 There is in China something called the Mandate of Heaven, right? 0.58

00:24:11.840 Which says that if the gods don't approve of whoever is in power, they will send natural

00:24:20.760 disasters.

00:24:21.840 Well, there have been, since zero COVID, a number of major floods across major cities in

00:24:27.560 China, and the government has been unable to really do anything meaningful about these.

00:24:31.820 The country is falling apart.

00:24:33.700 Buildings are falling over because they cut corners when they were building out infrastructure.

00:24:39.860 People feel like even now, if you go to their apps, even mentioning this historic concept

00:24:44.660 in Chinese, the Mandate of Heaven, is banned across most of their social media because they 0.99

00:24:49.340 are afraid of people beginning to realize this.

00:24:51.880 And so you're like, how do these ideas spread?

00:24:53.480 They're spreading through family networks mostly right now.

00:24:55.840 And China has very tight-knit family networks.

00:24:58.360 Probably this would have to be also offline, in conversations, behind closed doors, with

00:25:04.500 all the electronics turned off, the amount of care that would have to be put into these

00:25:09.760 discussions spreading.

00:25:11.720 And yet, despite all this, it's happening.

00:25:14.920 Or they'll do things like the government, like the Winnie the Pooh thing, right?

00:25:18.320 They'll know that the government will say that something innocuous offends them like Winnie

00:25:22.060 the Pooh, and then people think they're safe posting that because it's not the government

00:25:25.400 itself.

00:25:25.820 But I think they've gotten past that.

00:25:27.680 I mean, at this point, it's clear that even just protesting with the white people.

00:25:32.440 Another place where this happened is there was some song that people saw as the title

00:25:36.720 could be seen as an indication of the government.

00:25:38.400 So people, in short, it hit number one on charts.

00:25:40.940 But again, the government, as soon as it realizes this, there is no compromise.

00:25:45.860 Yeah.

00:25:46.120 And a lot of people are like, why are we so unafraid of China as a geopolitical power?

00:25:53.060 And why I might encourage even some of my, I mean, I think we should protect Taiwan, but 1.00

00:25:57.880 not get in full scale war with China, because it's not worth it.

00:26:00.560 They're not going to exist as a major power in 15 years or 20 years.

00:26:04.320 We don't need to play this game.

00:26:06.720 Their fertility rate is so low, and everything they've done shows a complete inability to 0.99

00:26:11.600 get it up.

00:26:12.340 And they have had this one-child policy going for a long time.

00:26:15.540 So they are affected by this much longer than we are.

00:26:17.920 People are like, oh, the fertility rate is low because of the one-child policy.

00:26:20.060 No, it's been crashing since the one-child policy was lifted.

00:26:23.220 It is much lower now than it ever was during the one-child policy.

00:26:27.160 It's lower now than it was even during the Great Famine.

00:26:30.860 This is catastrophic, the situation they're in, and they are doing everything they can.

00:26:36.200 They're banning vasectomies.

00:26:37.280 They're banning blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:26:38.720 None of it's working.

00:26:40.540 Gosh, that's scary.

00:26:42.100 So they are a country on the verge of collapse in every sense of the word.

00:26:47.220 So I guess your stance is just when it comes to U.S. policy, okay, yes, maybe some protections

00:26:57.780 for Taiwan, but aside from that, the focus should be on disentangling trade relations

00:27:03.500 from China as quickly as possible because from an economic perspective, the bigger liability

00:27:11.220 is any dependency on Chinese industry, which is probably going to start falling apart even

00:27:17.000 more sooner rather than later.

00:27:19.280 We don't even need to really worry about trade embargoes.

00:27:21.740 We need to worry about literally our businesses not being able to get the products and basic

00:27:30.460 components they need.

00:27:31.440 Plus, we also need to be worried about China and AI because it is going to be very strongly

00:27:36.100 motivated to steal whatever superintelligence development we're doing.

00:27:40.280 Yes.

00:27:40.740 Well, and I would also say with China, and this is a policy change I've had recently, actually

00:27:46.180 inspired by the changing of the policy positions of the new right and beginning to think about

00:27:51.000 foreign policy more pragmatically.

00:27:53.000 Historically, I would have been a hardliner on defending Taiwan just out of national pride

00:27:57.340 reasons and stuff like that and being the good guy and we are Americans.

00:28:00.240 Now, I don't think it's pragmatically in our best interest.

00:28:03.000 And people might be shocked by that given the chip manufacturing that's done there.

00:28:06.600 Yeah.

00:28:06.860 And they'd say, well, I would put a condition on defending Taiwan. 0.91

00:28:10.140 We will defend Taiwan if they can get their fertility rate up. 1.00

00:28:12.820 But right now, Taiwan has such a low fertility rate that people who we waste defending them, 1.00

00:28:18.860 we're doing it for nothing.

00:28:20.220 Their population at their current fertility rate, especially if it keeps dropping at the

00:28:24.400 rate it has historically, is going to be like, I think, if you project forwards, like two

00:28:28.780 or one Taiwanese person for every hundred Taiwanese people in terms of great-grandchildren.

00:28:33.800 It's just not a relevant player in the future at its current fertility rates. 0.81

00:28:38.100 Why are we wasting our children's lives and putting our country at risk to defend a country

00:28:44.760 that can't even motivate itself to reproduce?

00:28:47.340 And I actually think that if we made this ultimatum with them, it would help them in the

00:28:53.000 long run as well because they'd realize, oh, shoot, we actually do have to reproduce. 0.88

00:28:56.940 However, I do think that we should have a plan for the Taiwanese people. 1.00

00:29:00.440 And by that, what I mean is if we are not fully defending them, we need to have a plan

00:29:05.240 for evacuating them and acculturating them.

00:29:07.100 I am open to, I mean, Taiwan produces, is the key manufacturer of semiconductors for

00:29:12.960 the world.

00:29:13.700 I would not mind the U.S. being the key manufacturer of semiconductors for the world.

00:29:18.160 We have tried to build our own plants as advanced as Taiwanese plants, but culturally, we're not

00:29:23.080 as good at rule following and procedure and bureaucracy as them, and we have struggled.

00:29:27.740 By the way, many people can ask, why are Taiwanese so good at that stuff?

00:29:30.460 Is it some Chinese thing? 0.75

00:29:31.880 Is it some genetic thing?

00:29:32.940 It's a genetic thing, but it's not a Chinese thing exactly.

00:29:35.200 Taiwan is like an entire country of America's Cuban immigrant population.

00:29:41.060 When you have communist uprisings, what often happens is the competent, smart, industrialist

00:29:47.320 people who are prone to enjoying competing in meritocracies and free markets leave.

00:29:53.880 In America, you're like, well, what do you think of Cubans?

00:29:57.300 What's the Cuban stereotype?

00:29:58.180 Well, they're like, well, they're capitalistic, they're Republican, and they're successful at

00:30:02.500 business.

00:30:03.240 And it's like, is that a broader Cuban stereotype?

00:30:05.680 No, it's the American Cubans.

00:30:07.540 Same with the Chinese who fled the revolution and went to Taiwan.

00:30:12.980 And if we can make use of that, especially if we can help create, build a stable population

00:30:19.200 out of them, people are like, well, aren't you worried about them not assimilating in

00:30:22.840 the U.S. and changing American culture?

00:30:24.660 It's like, look, their fertility rate is so low.

00:30:27.660 No, I'm not.

00:30:29.340 At this rate, they're going to go extinct pretty much no matter what we do.

00:30:32.580 We might as well get some semiconductor plants out of it and some years of economic productivity

00:30:37.360 out of it.

00:30:37.820 And hey, Koreans who immigrate to the U.S., their fertility rate bumps 50%.

00:30:42.100 It's still very low.

00:30:43.980 It's like 1.2 or something like that, basically halving every generation.

00:30:47.480 But it's not as low as it is in South Korea.

00:30:50.320 I suspect we see a similar thing with the Taiwanese population, meaning that in the end, it would 1.00

00:30:54.100 also help them.

00:30:56.700 Interesting.

00:30:57.460 Well, I don't imagine we'll ever be that practical, but we'll see what happens.

00:31:03.360 We're in for a wild ride.

00:31:04.480 Regardless, I had no idea things had gotten so dire, so terrible.

00:31:07.820 It's terrifying so quickly.

00:31:10.440 And the people are like, what about the economic effects of taking a bunch of Taiwanese people? 0.73

00:31:14.160 And wouldn't they want to maintain their own stable communities?

00:31:16.560 Well, why not have the government buy some land in Alaska or something like that and develop

00:31:20.140 it as a new separate community?

00:31:22.240 I don't mind doing that.

00:31:23.100 Then you also don't have the cultural bleed effects and we get the economic benefits from

00:31:26.400 it.

00:31:26.600 And we get to develop real estate and land that's currently not developed or fully utilized.

00:31:32.600 I don't mind that at all.

00:31:33.760 There are lots of ways to do things, but oh my gosh.

00:31:38.320 Yeah.

00:31:38.620 I just, I hope everyone's okay.

00:31:41.640 Well, China might genuinely attack to remove, like if they attack, I don't think they're

00:31:46.980 doing it for any reason other than to distract their general public and to test and mobilize

00:31:52.020 their military to make sure it can respond to threats from the general public.

00:31:55.780 I could see that.

00:31:56.720 Yeah.

00:31:56.880 Because that is the existential threat to China right now. 0.85

00:32:00.680 Well, but I should also note another problem China has right now is they don't have a play 0.56

00:32:06.480 for after Xi Jinping leaves.

00:32:08.560 He's done a very good job of like taking everyone out of the government who is a competitor to

00:32:13.420 him, who is competent, who is ambitious.

00:32:15.800 I'll come in a second.

00:32:18.220 Hold on.

00:32:18.820 I'll bring Octavian on to say bye to you guys.

00:32:20.440 Okay.

00:32:20.700 Okay.

00:32:20.760 Here, I want you to say hi to people.

00:32:27.560 Octavian, come here.

00:32:30.380 Did you, tell them about your toys?

00:32:33.020 I just brought the toys.

00:32:35.260 Okay.

00:32:36.840 So that's, I just brought toys.

00:32:40.200 They're, I just, I just got the toys in the box from Shenzhen John's house.

00:32:48.360 Okay.

00:32:48.620 What do you think about China?

00:32:50.700 And, and then I got the box with toys to our house.

00:32:55.480 They say she does not need any more toys anymore.

00:32:59.880 Okay.

00:33:00.020 But what do you think of China?

00:33:01.740 Good.

00:33:02.740 China's good. 0.96

00:33:04.020 Are they our, do you think that they could be our friends one day?

00:33:07.140 Yes.

00:33:08.160 What do you think of a bunch of Taiwanese people immigrating to the U.S.?

00:33:11.480 I think a lot of our audience isn't going to like that.

00:33:14.580 Yes.

00:33:15.200 And you know, I just brought it right there at that door.

00:33:19.260 Okay.

00:33:20.100 But do you think that we have enough toys for them?

00:33:21.880 What if, what if other kids came and started playing with your toys?

00:33:24.300 Would that be good or bad?

00:33:27.540 Okay.

00:33:28.320 So the more kids playing with your toys, the better?

00:33:32.200 Yeah.

00:33:32.520 Yes.

00:33:34.140 Especially if we can use those kids in an economic fight against other people?

00:33:38.500 What do you think of that?

00:33:39.440 What, what do you think?

00:33:40.040 Do you think the kids would fight for you?

00:33:41.260 No, they would not.

00:33:43.760 Oh, they wouldn't?

00:33:44.820 Well, then why would you want them to play with your toys?

00:33:50.460 Because it's a nice thing to do.

00:33:51.820 Hold on a second.

00:33:53.000 Can you bring this?

00:33:54.160 I'll bring, hold on a second.

00:33:56.020 I'll be right, I'll be right here.

00:33:58.520 I gotta get this.

00:34:00.540 I gotta get the toys.

00:34:02.020 Okay.

00:34:02.460 What's that like?

00:34:03.400 I love you, Octavian.

00:34:04.440 I love you, Simone.

00:34:05.340 Bye.

00:34:05.640 Why don't you finish up with Octavian?

00:34:07.320 He's going to talk to you a little bit.

00:34:08.920 Octavian, hold the mic.

00:34:09.880 And Malcolm, you get the kids.

00:34:11.260 I'm going to go get the kids.

00:34:12.060 Octavian, talk to mommy.

00:34:13.500 Octavian, come let me interview you.

00:34:15.960 Come take a seat, okay?

00:34:17.860 Okay.

00:34:18.720 All right.

00:34:19.200 Tell me, Octavian, what do you know about the country, China?

00:34:24.080 It's good.

00:34:25.260 It's good.

00:34:26.420 You love them.

00:34:27.120 Do you think that the Chinese people have a hope for the future? 1.00

00:34:34.280 Yeah.

00:34:34.500 And where was daddy going?

00:34:36.900 Daddy's going to get your brother and sister, because it's time for dinner.

00:34:39.620 Where was daddy's wife until when I was at, say, St. John's house? 0.99

00:34:45.260 Oh, we were going to pick up some groceries for you, because guess what?

00:34:48.540 Tonight, you're having corn for kids.

00:34:50.660 Corn on the cob.

00:34:52.120 Oh, great.

00:34:53.300 Thank you.

00:34:54.240 You're welcome.

00:34:55.260 Do you like corn on the cob?

00:34:56.540 Do you put butter on it, or do you eat it plain?

00:34:59.180 I want to eat it with plain.

00:35:01.720 You want to eat it plain?

00:35:02.700 Okay.

00:35:02.980 Would you share your corn on the cob with kids who came over from China? 0.85

00:35:08.760 Yeah.

00:35:09.500 Good.

00:35:09.860 It's good to share, right?

00:35:11.560 Yeah.

00:35:11.940 Sharing is caring, right?

00:35:13.480 Sharing is caring.

00:35:14.680 That's right, Octavian.

00:35:16.160 Are you going to share your corn with your brother and sister?

00:35:18.800 Yes.

00:35:21.160 That's really nice.

00:35:22.280 Okay.

00:35:23.300 What do you think that...

00:35:24.580 So, there's a lot of people in China right now who are sad.

00:35:28.020 What do you think that they should do to be happy?

00:35:29.940 Oh, yes.

00:35:31.540 What should we do to cheer up the people in China, because they're very sad right now? 0.94

00:35:36.300 What makes them so sad?

00:35:38.740 They feel like there's no hope for the future, like they'll never get toys again.

00:35:44.560 Oh.

00:35:44.860 Well, then I'll get them toys. 0.96

00:35:48.160 You'll get them toys?

00:35:49.280 Yeah.

00:35:49.500 How will you get them toys?

00:35:50.540 What will you do to get them toys?

00:35:52.000 I'll get them a tiny teddy bear.

00:35:56.780 A tiny teddy bear?

00:35:58.680 Yeah.

00:35:59.960 So, they come to sleep and take a rest.

00:36:02.860 And I can get them only five toys.

00:36:09.640 Only five toys?

00:36:10.720 I think there are more than five people in China, though.

00:36:13.400 I think there's a lot of people in China.

00:36:15.460 Oh, so I said get them toys. 1.00

00:36:18.020 I think you're going to need to get more toys.

00:36:19.720 But do you think that's going to be enough to cheer them up, Octavian? 0.92

00:36:23.840 Yeah.

00:36:24.740 You think so?

00:36:26.200 Yeah, well, if all the toys are gone right at our house, I'm St. John.

00:36:31.780 And we got to get toys from the toy store.

00:36:36.000 Oh, so you think this is a shoppertunity to cheer up the people in China, because you get to go shopping?

00:36:42.840 Yes.

00:36:44.260 Huh.

00:36:45.180 Okay.

00:36:46.440 And how are you going to get all these toys to China?

00:36:48.760 You know how when you look at the globe, right?

00:36:51.160 When you look at the world map, China is very far away.

00:36:54.220 It's across the Pacific Ocean.

00:36:56.620 What the?

00:36:57.700 Oh, yes.

00:36:58.560 I want to go on a boat.

00:37:00.380 Oh, you're going to go on a boat to deliver the toys to China, to cheer up the people of China.

00:37:04.260 Is that right?

00:37:05.260 Yeah.

00:37:05.700 I'm going to deliver the boats.

00:37:07.440 I'm a great delivery man.

00:37:09.480 I deliver everything for everybody else who is sad.

00:37:14.220 Okay.

00:37:15.540 So you're one solution here.

00:37:17.480 I think that's like a paddle.

00:37:20.100 What's that thing there?

00:37:21.600 It's a paddle.

00:37:22.360 That's exactly what you think it is.

00:37:24.100 It's a paddle for the boat.

00:37:26.160 For the boat that's in our house?

00:37:30.580 That's right.

00:37:31.540 Yeah.

00:37:31.960 For the paddle boat.

00:37:33.060 Is it going to be for me?

00:37:35.040 You can use it as long as you promise not to drop it.

00:37:38.520 Okay.

00:37:39.920 Yeah?

00:37:40.540 Okay.

00:37:41.900 I'll put it right here right now.

00:37:44.440 Okay.

00:37:44.800 That sounds good.

00:37:45.960 So, Octavian, you know, here's a really important part of, oh, you got the teddy bear.

00:37:50.840 That's good.

00:37:51.620 So a really important part of making toys is special microchips that make the toys work,

00:37:56.560 right?

00:37:57.360 Oh, okay.

00:37:58.520 And there's a place called Taiwan that makes all these really important chips, and they're

00:38:02.840 in danger.

00:38:03.360 What would you do to protect Taiwan? 1.00

00:38:06.260 To kill them. 1.00

00:38:07.480 Um, I just had monsters, so I killed them. 1.00

00:38:12.040 So you killed whoever was attacking Taiwan? 0.97

00:38:14.940 Yeah.

00:38:16.520 And how will you protect Taiwan from China attacking?

00:38:20.200 Because they might want to stop them from making the chips.

00:38:23.120 They might want to, I don't know. 0.98

00:38:24.740 Would you want to go yourself to kill them, or would you send missiles? 0.99

00:38:27.720 Well. 0.99

00:38:29.460 Would you want to use a gun or a missile?

00:38:31.240 Um, I need to use a gun.

00:38:34.340 That's not heavy.

00:38:36.240 Heavy.

00:38:37.200 Okay, so you want a light gun.

00:38:38.800 Okay, that makes sense.

00:38:40.000 I want it!

00:38:41.260 Torsten.

00:38:41.820 You want to say, sir.

00:38:42.740 I want it!

00:38:44.240 Let Torsten hold it, buddy.

00:38:45.380 He wants to hold it.

00:38:46.840 Torsten.

00:38:48.100 How do you spell your name?

00:38:49.940 I want to hold it.

00:38:52.240 I want to hold it.

00:38:53.280 I don't know.

00:38:53.940 Yeah, you do, buddy.

00:38:56.020 Look, our kids don't like being on camera and don't like speaking into the microphone,

00:38:59.580 so this is clearly against their consent.

00:39:02.060 You can see that we have not...

00:39:04.200 I want it!

00:39:05.540 Hello, hello, hello.

00:39:07.000 Torsten, let Torsten talk.

00:39:08.360 He wants it.

00:39:09.280 Can you ask, Octavian, ask Torsten an interview question.

00:39:12.580 Ask Torsten an interview question.

00:39:14.120 Ask him about China.

00:39:14.880 I cannot have the microphone.

00:39:18.100 The microphone can hear you from over there.

00:39:20.020 Just ask him about it.

00:39:21.800 I just want to hold it on a microphone.

00:39:25.680 Okay, Torsten.

00:39:27.420 Torsten.

00:39:28.120 How do we cheer up China? 1.00

00:39:29.780 How do we make China happy? 0.94

00:39:32.060 I'll give you the microphone.

00:39:34.800 Next time, we'll have a microphone for everyone.

00:39:37.560 Aww.

00:39:38.720 Okay.

00:39:40.160 Torsten, the people of China need to be cheered up. 0.98

00:39:43.140 How can you make them happy?

00:39:44.560 How are you going to make them happy?

00:39:46.080 Um, I don't know how to get them happy.

00:39:50.000 Aww.

00:39:50.720 I don't think China knows how to either. 0.96

00:39:52.420 The CCP's having trouble.

00:39:53.940 What?

00:39:55.560 Oh, the mic just disconnected.

00:39:57.720 No, he turned it off.

00:39:58.740 No.

00:39:59.040 What will you do if they hurt somebody?

00:40:01.180 I just got to turn it on.

00:40:04.080 Oh, it's okay, Torsten.

00:40:05.900 What would...

00:40:06.380 If China does something naughty, what will happen? 0.98

00:40:10.320 Help me.

00:40:11.300 You want to be the attention?

00:40:13.140 Octavia, if China hurt somebody, what would you do? 0.82

00:40:15.660 I want to hold the microphone.

00:40:18.220 Okay, everybody wants the microphone.

00:40:19.560 Well, you know what?

00:40:20.260 That means, like, nobody gets to hold the microphone.

00:40:22.520 I love you, Simone.

00:40:23.500 I love you, too, Malcolm.

00:40:25.640 I love you, too.

00:40:26.160 Oh, I love Toasty's voice on the microphone, though.

00:40:33.840 I just want Toasty to say something on the microphone so bad.

00:40:37.160 His little voice.

00:40:37.820 All right, I got the microphone.

00:40:41.740 Oh, gosh.

00:40:44.380 I've got it for now.

00:40:45.520 Oh, gosh.

00:40:51.020 Oh, boy.

00:40:53.080 All right, I'll come down.

00:40:54.340 I'm making corn for Octavian.

00:40:55.760 What do you want?

00:40:58.200 What's hurting?

00:40:59.980 Would you like...

00:41:00.940 Malcolm, would you like your...

00:41:02.200 Yeah, okay, okay.

00:41:05.660 Fight or flight?

00:41:06.700 Is that what you said?

00:41:07.540 Would you like tortellini?

00:41:09.340 I reheat fried rice and reheat slow-cooked meat for the fried rice.

00:41:15.720 Okay, that sounds good.

00:41:17.660 There's the microphone.

00:41:20.920 Okay, Toasty, tell me something interesting.

00:41:23.020 Um, I didn't give me all about China.

00:41:29.740 Oh, yeah?

00:41:30.720 Okay, Toasty.

00:41:31.760 Yeah.

00:41:34.720 No, I want it.

00:41:36.160 Octavian, are you China and Toasty's Taiwan? 0.98

00:41:39.040 I want it.

00:41:46.480 No, it's no tickles.

00:41:49.380 It's no tickles?

00:41:50.560 I want it.

00:41:51.620 All right, I'll hit end.

00:41:58.660 I love you, Malcolm.

00:42:00.900 This looks pretty dire.

00:42:04.020 See you downstairs in a sec.

00:42:05.260 Okay.

Based Camp - August 12, 2024

How China Went Woke： Beijing Should Be Freaking Out

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Summary

Transcript