Based Camp - Iran Gov Broke & Everyone Is Missing the Signs

00:00:00.000 What this suggests to me is that the people who are at the regional heads of Iran's mosaic defense strategy have entirely regionalized their control already.

00:00:16.020 Oh, wow. Oh, that would be interesting. So it's like it's descending into fiefdoms.

00:00:22.300 But what's important is to these individuals who are playing this game, and you can see this in the president's reaction here, they actually don't particularly care about America or Israel or Iran's long-term geopolitical future.

00:00:41.540 Sure. Why would they? Yeah.

00:00:43.560 They are vying to be the top dog of the warlords.

00:00:48.820 Would you like to know more?

00:00:49.940 Hello, Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today, we are going to be doing a series

00:00:55.420 of updates on what's happening with Iran right now. And the situation is absolutely crazy in

00:01:03.800 how it's setting up the future geopolitics of the Middle East. Iran has been making decisions

00:01:08.760 which appear completely baffling from an outside perspective, which is what we're going to start

00:01:14.860 with to try to understand why they're making the decisions they're making. But we're also seeing

00:01:19.800 the setup of a new cold war throughout the middle east between saudi arabia and the uae oh what

00:01:29.220 wow i haven't heard anything about this yes it is and when i say a cold war i mean there's they're

00:01:36.360 already in active killing conflicts in about four or five theaters the saudi arabia and the uae

00:01:41.300 right now actively are we talking about a cold war along the lines of nuclear threat kind of

00:01:47.800 cold war or just cold war of like frenemies being no we don't attack each other directly but we

00:01:53.920 arm troops on opposite sides of conflicts throughout the region to attempt to create

00:02:00.160 puppet governments that serve us wow so like a to get like between each other they are i'd say

00:02:07.920 almost friendly in the way they are acting and yet people are dying every day in mass in service

00:02:14.820 of this conflict. Okay, frenemies, Cold War. Gotcha. Yes, a very odd Cold War, but a Cold War

00:02:21.240 nonetheless. And given the way that it's odd, it's also sort of a safer Cold War because it's

00:02:24.960 unlikely to escalate as much. But I want to start on the weird behavior of Iran. So if people go

00:02:32.000 back to our episode on Venezuela, my take at the time was I did not think attempting regime change

00:02:39.720 in iran in the same way we did in venezuela at least was a good idea or really conflict directly

00:02:47.360 in iran was a good idea i said i thought it was incredibly risky i have since taken the position

00:02:53.400 since this war started and this is still where i am today that okay i would not have taken this

00:03:02.420 risk even knowing what it appears trump knew when he went into this conflict however knowing what

00:03:09.520 has happened since the beginning of the conflict it was very obviously the right move and the

00:03:16.180 large reason that it turned into very obviously the right move has been bizarre behavior by iran

00:03:25.780 itself since the conflict started that i wouldn't have predicted but maybe i should have really

00:03:33.720 because it seems so inane like them attacking their neighbors not their neighbor just their

00:03:40.540 neighbors so the attack that was for me just the most baffling i mean they've attacked almost every

00:03:45.340 neighboring country at this point except iraq oh no they did attack iraq they've attacked pretty

00:03:50.320 much everyone around them and when i say everyone one of the most devastating attacks that they did

00:03:55.320 recently was on qatar now for people who don't know qatar and iran are like qatar is about iran's

00:04:03.300 closest ally the children of gaza are suffering they have no food or medical supply but you can

00:04:11.360 help please open your heart and make a donation by clicking in the link below

00:04:33.300 fun fact israel did find and kill one of these real guys while he was in qatar in doha

00:05:03.300 cry harder we need more money people of the world al jazeera is always d of anyone who i ran as

00:05:15.620 funding that's just like al jazeera's main thing for people who don't know al jazeera is qatari

00:05:20.440 disinformation campaign right like that's broadly what it's known for but a lot of people treat it

00:05:25.160 seriously as a source of news and stuff like this and a lot of like educated liberals i guess are

00:05:29.280 like i don't know they bite the bullet on that because it's anti-america and anti-israel can

00:05:34.880 confirm yeah they're like al jazeera quality reporting well and to be fair a lot of a lot of

00:05:41.660 propaganda news outlets do they're they're only successful as propaganda news outlets if they

00:05:48.680 also put out good information just like with seo like you you often don't get good sustainable like

00:05:55.180 historically speaking seo if you don't provide websites with good content on them like that is

00:06:00.400 how to sustainably win the game and this is why you have publications like the epic times

00:06:04.520 and al jazeera producing good journalism often um because they won't be able to get people to

00:06:10.420 eat their vegetables if they don't serve actually good food sometimes the best reporting that you're

00:06:16.360 going to get is from a bias source when their personal bias isn't relevant to that story yes

00:06:22.980 So you can get great reporting from the Epoch Times when it's not about China.

00:06:27.760 You can get great reporting from Al Jazeera when it doesn't have to do with the Middle East.

00:06:31.400 But if you want to get an idea of what I'm talking about when I'm talking about an attitude flip,

00:06:37.040 and Qatar was a real thorn in our side that they were willing to work alongside Iran as much as they were

00:06:42.160 and promote them as much as they were within the region.

00:06:44.200 Here's a recent op-ed that was published in Al Jazeera for an example of the shift that we're seeing.

00:06:50.320 The U.S.-Israel strategy against Iran is working. Here's why. Every aspect of Iran's ability to project regional power is being successfully degraded. I'm just skipping in a bit here, but this narrative is wrong, not because the costs are imaginary, but because the critics are measuring the wrong things.

00:07:09.200 They are categorizing the price of the campaign while ignoring the strategic ledger.

00:07:14.620 When you look at what actually happened to Iran's principal instruments of power,

00:07:18.300 its ballistic missiles are null.

00:07:20.280 Its nuclear infrastructure, its air defenses, its Navy and proxy commander architecture.

00:07:24.440 This picture is not one of U.S. failure.

00:07:26.680 It is one of systematic phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades.

00:07:33.480 I write this from Doha, where Iranian missiles have triggered alerts for residents to take shelter, and Qatar Airways has started operating evacuation flights.

00:07:43.440 So, like, this is where we are in terms of the feeling in a place like Qatar, all right?

00:07:53.420 So, to understand what happened with Qatar, just a bit of context here.

00:07:57.060 And this was also a huge D move on Israel's part, but it turned out beneficial.

00:08:03.480 So I don't know what to think of it.

00:08:05.300 So Israel ends up bombing the South Par's gas field.

00:08:10.300 Now, there have been conflicting reports on whether this attack was given the go-ahead

00:08:17.200 by the United States, but when there are conflicting reports on whether or not Israel

00:08:22.360 effed us over, my general stance is Israel probably effed us over.

00:08:26.800 My take is what may have happened is Israel asked Washington for permission to do this

00:08:32.600 and didn't flag the significance of what they were about to do and then are you just having fun

00:08:39.060 with the baby sorry and then washington decided to give the give the okay without going through

00:08:46.760 the channels they would have if they had known how big a deal this is as you know what some people

00:08:50.380 are saying which plausibly could be true is that washington and israel washington didn't know that

00:08:56.680 this was going to happen but they're playing good cop bad cop with washington pretending that it

00:09:01.360 didn't know this was going to happen in order to play good cop the reason why i don't believe this

00:09:07.360 is if this was the case i would have expected washington to have its messaging aligned with

00:09:13.160 israel beforehand instead of some of the time saying yes we allowed this some of the time

00:09:20.320 angrily saying israel will never do something like this again the reason it's such a big deal

00:09:24.480 is because this natural gas station or or this so okay little this is one of the major supplies of

00:09:32.460 energy to iran and my understanding now is is already even before this conflict they had

00:09:38.360 shifted to burning this really like either unrefined or like this dregs of of oil i can't

00:09:45.720 remember what it's called but it causes a lot of air pollution it's really not good for the

00:09:49.480 environment or people and now they're going to be burning even more of it like they're just in dire

00:09:53.200 straits now and it's making things even worse okay so there's a giant national gas field under

00:09:57.820 qatar that goes under the the the gulf there and half of it is in iran and so iran and qatar both

00:10:03.380 you mine it for natural gas qatar sells that natural gas around the world and it's the major

00:10:09.180 source of qatar income it's also why qatar is on good terms with iran because they have to be

00:10:14.180 because they share the main thing that makes qatar wealthy iran does not export this much

00:10:20.200 they take it and use it to power their infrastructure yeah like they need it to

00:10:24.980 survive like 90 of the power plants in iran are running off of this if this goes down iran doesn't

00:10:31.540 have power most of iran doesn't have power well and it just went down presumably right

00:10:36.940 it's not it was a limited strike it was more like we could do something really bad but it was it was

00:10:42.960 very limited and then iran in response to this they decided to do a bombing of qataris ross

00:10:51.980 lafan the world's largest liquefied natural gas lng production wait so okay israel attacked

00:10:58.700 sort of a shared resource of qatar and iran iran bombs qatar yes why what this just seems so inane

00:11:10.400 the response okay yeah like so so don't you would don't you want to like retaliate against the

00:11:16.680 person who did the thing that makes you mad not the person who also got hurt i mentioned this in

00:11:21.740 the in the last episode on this and some people are just so dumb and cucked on this entire war

00:11:26.760 where they're like no china is fine after all this and i'm like no china is not fine they're

00:11:31.220 like iran is letting chinese ships through and i'm like no iran said that they would think about

00:11:36.580 letting Chinese ships through, but functionally only a small, I think it's like two, five percent

00:11:42.180 of the previous traffic of Chinese ships have been able to get through. And I made this point

00:11:47.300 to point out that when you cut off the Strait of Hormuz, like what the U.S. is functionally

00:11:51.960 trying to get open is a strait that doesn't supply the U.S. at all. It supplies our geopolitical

00:11:59.840 rivals, China, Europe, and East Asia as well, which is why you had the hilarious instance of

00:12:07.700 the Japanese lady who I love, you know, coming to talk with Trump and she goes, why didn't you

00:12:11.740 warn us? He goes, why didn't you warn us about Pearl Harbor? And I was like, Trump, you're

00:12:16.640 nut job. But what's important to note is the U.S. has actually been approaching this war with

00:12:23.140 something of our hands, not tied behind our backs, but when my kids get into fights,

00:12:26.900 they really understand how much power to use when hitting their siblings based on like the

00:12:32.700 siblings relative age to them and we're sort of in a conflict like that was iran we're not

00:12:38.100 taking out karg island right we're not taking out this infrastructure and people can ask why did we

00:12:46.580 not do this why did israel do it what was the plan here i'll get to that in a second but i i want to

00:12:52.520 explain this particular issue. So Israel goes ahead and does this likely without Washington

00:12:57.560 fully understanding the implications of what Israel was doing. Why did Israel do it from an

00:13:02.120 Israel perspective? Israel's goals and our goals in the war are not exactly the same. We are okay

00:13:09.720 with just seeing a heavily diminished Iran. Israel wants to keep the war going for as long as it can

00:13:18.020 and aggressively as it can now that it finally has its shot at iran and it can use us to make

00:13:25.780 that shot like amplify that shot on its behalf so it did the thing where you know we are i can

00:13:34.080 say play fighting was iran and then it comes in and does an actual sucker punch and trump had to

00:13:39.480 go like israel will do no more like in all caps on two socials attacks on this they had to do the

00:13:45.360 like in the middle of the fight hey that's not cool man like don't do that right like we're not

00:13:49.660 attacking infrastructure but it turned out for the best because it led to the iranian serious

00:13:55.880 damage of this qatar facility which pushed qatar one of the groups that was still trying to stay

00:14:02.060 a little neutral in how it was dealing with iran further to the other side okay question of why is

00:14:10.140 iran doing this yeah like this this makes israel's actions seem a little bit less dickish but that

00:14:15.620 doesn't change the fact that that like why would how could they have predicted that iran would do

00:14:21.100 that right yeah okay so the important thing to note at the beginning of all of this is you could

00:14:27.800 say maybe this is a grand strategy on iran that you're not seeing malcolm and a lot of the news

00:14:33.360 is covering it this way it's we're gonna hurt the global economy until the united states capitulate

00:14:39.040 which is a very stupid strategy because since this war started the u.s dollar has gone up

00:14:44.160 the euro has gone down yes we've taken an economic hit but things will eventually go back to normal

00:14:49.400 so it's just a great time to invest right now yeah right like it's not actually doing sustained

00:14:55.180 damage to anything of the united states interest but it is turning a lot of powers against iran

00:15:01.760 that would otherwise be their allies like china right like if the u.s just decides to stop this

00:15:07.380 war right now and iran decides it's going to keep the straight of her moose shut down this becomes

00:15:12.740 an existential problem for qatar the uae china and saudi arabia and they would have to get

00:15:20.600 militarily involved like like they actually don't have a choice if it turned out the united states

00:15:25.680 was just going to be like okay hands off we don't care anymore we don't have to get involved it is

00:15:30.620 not existential for us it's unpleasant economically but it is much more unpleasant economically for

00:15:37.240 our geopolitical rivals so this idea that this isn't in the heads of washington right now

00:15:43.600 especially with the talks with china coming up and those being you know delayed for trump to

00:15:48.740 to finish the war there is nothing china wants more than an end to this war right and an end

00:15:55.340 that likely even favors the u.s given where things are now because if iran can still control the

00:16:01.960 this is against china's best interest but anyway so you can say okay intelligent strategy from the

00:16:10.100 top from what we've seen in iran this doesn't seem to be the case iranian president massad

00:16:14.840 pezashkia yeah everyone knows i can't pronounce other names said on iranian state tv after the

00:16:21.280 initial attack started happening he said on my own behalf and on behalf of iran that he wanted

00:16:28.240 to apologize to Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, et cetera. I don't know if you even need

00:16:35.020 an et cetera there. And he issued an apology for the attacks. Specifically, he blamed it on the

00:16:41.040 chaos created by the killings of top Iranian commanders and leaders by the US Israeli strikes

00:16:46.920 saying, quote, our armed forces fired at will because their commanders were absent and they

00:16:53.120 did whatever was necessary right so this clearly was not ordered from the top right it was so not

00:17:02.260 ordered from the top that okay so suppose you had like two factions in the top in the board meetings

00:17:09.000 or whatever was the president and the other people controlling things in iran right now

00:17:12.500 and like so the new ayatollah is in brain dead which it appears he probably is brain dead or

00:17:18.080 a coma or severely injured or something because it's weird that he hasn't shown his face yet and

00:17:22.740 Like he easily could do a prerecorded videos.

00:17:25.280 The old one did that all the time, right?

00:17:26.720 You know, so it appears that he might be incapacitated and he might have been elected

00:17:30.820 explicitly because he was incapacitated, which would allow other people to grab power

00:17:35.800 illegitimately.

00:17:36.640 Yeah, you can call it the Biden strategy.

00:17:39.300 The Biden strategy.

00:17:40.540 Yes.

00:17:41.120 So anyway, if this guy and the other people who are supposed to be running Iran knew that

00:17:48.380 there was a disagreement about why these missiles were being sent at these various infrastructure

00:17:53.020 projects and stuff like that he wouldn't have flippantly gone on state tv and just been like

00:17:57.840 i apologize this isn't going to happen again it's just you know it's disorganized people are acting

00:18:04.000 on their own he would be like because he'd know that there was some other faction and he'd explain

00:18:08.580 you know oh this is the discussion we're having or he wouldn't say anything at all until he had

00:18:12.680 argued his point. This is not the words of somebody who appears to be aware that this is

00:18:21.140 somebody else's intentional plan. But then what happened? He said he would try to solve things

00:18:27.060 through diplomacy, but was in hours the same day after sharp criticism and backlash from Iranian

00:18:33.580 hardliners, hardline clerics, lawmakers, the IRGC officials and conservative media. He backed up

00:18:41.020 hard he said he posts up in a following statement and repeated it on state tv

00:18:45.580 claiming iran had actually never attacked quote friendly or neighboring countries at all

00:18:51.600 uh-huh right so what's causing this like this is this is weird like that's a that's a weird

00:19:03.340 thing to do it almost sounds like he was afraid for his life the weird pile is getting so big

00:19:09.320 right here is my understanding of what seems to be happening on the ground in iran leading to the

00:19:18.280 weird decisions that we're seeing okay you mean like your your hypothesis as to what is actually

00:19:23.080 going on yes sure okay let's hear it it's a it has to do with governance theory which we wrote

00:19:29.820 a wall street bestseller on um so iran is uh pragmatism to governance if you want to read it

00:19:36.220 by the way. This actually ended up affecting a lot of like crypto governance strategies and

00:19:40.960 stuff like that, which is really cool, which had us on the board of like major crypto things for a

00:19:44.920 while, like some of the largest crypto donation funds. Anyway, so Iran has been practicing

00:19:49.960 something called mosaic defense. Mosaic defense is a form of defense that is meant to be incredibly

00:19:57.520 robust to decapitation so that you can cut out the leadership and the individual factions can

00:20:04.660 still operate. Now, we have another episode where we point out that normally Muslim countries do not

00:20:10.000 do things like this. And the reason why Muslim countries do not do things like this is they

00:20:14.420 typically have coups when they do do things like this, because Muslims are just way more likely to

00:20:20.740 coup than Protestants. And in the middle, you have groups like Catholics. And we go into that

00:20:25.380 episode why this is, but we don't need to go into that here. It's just rarely done in Muslim

00:20:30.440 countries but it hugely decentralized the power was in the military okay now what that has created

00:20:39.700 and keep in mind how little connection the president must have had to the people who were

00:20:44.960 actually making the shots to think that the shoot they were shooting at whatever they were just

00:20:53.460 firing at will at anything that he thought that that's what was happening that he thought that

00:20:59.520 that was the on the ground what's happening or at least a plausible excuse for what's happening

00:21:04.960 right this means that he had not communicated through or had the ability to communicate down

00:21:11.620 to the soldier level or to any decision makers level at the level of of these firings in other

00:21:18.400 countries right what this suggests to me is that the people who are at the regional heads

00:21:26.380 of iran's mosaic defense strategy have entirely regionalized their control already oh wow oh that

00:21:37.740 would be interesting so it's it's like it's descending into fiefdoms it's descending into

00:21:43.640 yeah essentially warlords whoa but the warlords may not have control over territory it may be

00:21:49.900 over parts of the irgc or something like that but what's important is to these individuals who are

00:21:57.620 playing this game and you can see this in the president's reaction here they actually don't

00:22:04.180 particularly care about america or israel or iran's long-term geopolitical future sure why would

00:22:12.860 they yeah they are vying to be the top dog of the warlords to control what's left of iran

00:22:21.680 after this war is over yeah and to have as much influence as they can while the war is happening

00:22:28.860 and so now the question is okay if that's what's happening then how do you you know you're you're

00:22:37.480 one of these guys how do you signal your legitimacy and authority to the other warlords because it's

00:22:47.560 not likely going to be one person it's going to be a coalition that is going to gain power

00:22:53.580 and be the de facto head if it's if the president isn't the head right now who how do we get this

00:22:59.420 new organic de facto head it's politicking what how do you get points within this politicking

00:23:05.900 that's going on right now you need to be as hard line as possible as crazy as possible as aggressive

00:23:14.380 as possible against anyone who has ever slighted iran in any way hit what you can with what you

00:23:24.260 have so it's been pointed out that since the start of the conflict countries like the uae

00:23:30.740 and qatar have been hit with many more missiles oh i think orders of magnitudes more in some cases

00:23:35.640 than Israel how does this make sense from a Iranian tactical perspective or long-term alliance

00:23:42.780 perspective right like if Israel and Saudi I mean if the UAE and Saudi Arabia are beginning to have

00:23:47.640 conflict now wouldn't Iran want to be friendly with the UAE the UAE has a giant Iranian population

00:23:53.820 in it right like they have the potential to be quite friendly why are they so aggressive against

00:23:58.920 see uae right well it's because there are more expensive things that their missiles can actually

00:24:07.840 hit in the uae than in israel they're basically about grabbing news headlines and blowing up

00:24:15.620 expensive things like it's a video game to win control of the irgc from the other hardliners

00:24:23.740 was in the IRGC. That is what I suspect is happening right now. And if you assume that,

00:24:34.640 if you assume, and I think that we can assume that from these quotes from the president,

00:24:39.140 if you assume that there actually isn't any centralized control left in Iran, and remember

00:24:43.600 Israel, there was, what was his name? The one guy who was still sort of in charge of things. And then

00:24:49.420 yes Ali Laranjiz this guy died March 16th 17 and he was killed in his Israeli airstrikes along with

00:24:57.120 his son and one of his deputies and he was a long time power broker and one of the few left was in

00:25:03.480 the regime although you know we also had other really important figures that were killed like

00:25:08.780 Gallimarez Soleimani commander of the Bajil paramilitary force the region's main internal

00:25:13.900 repression tool this was the one that you know was murdering people in the streets the 35,000

00:25:18.500 protesters by the way we're still nowhere close to 35 000 casualties in the war actually i want

00:25:23.380 to go into a separate thing because i had a fan reach out to me asking me some stuff that i want

00:25:27.360 to address for fans who are just sort of skeptical of all the news that they hear on this okay he's

00:25:33.380 like how do we even know that iran did try to attempt to assassinate trump how do we know that

00:25:39.360 this isn't a post hoc thing made up during the trump administration you know like to justify

00:25:47.520 this war. Like, okay, the war started, we need to make something up. The core problem with that

00:25:51.820 hypothesis is one, there were two potential assassination attempts. And the one that we

00:25:56.940 have more information on, most of the information we have on it was released during the Biden

00:26:02.060 administration when Trump was running against Biden. That was against the Biden administration's

00:26:09.880 interest in releasing in the first place, right? And just does not at all look like a false flag

00:26:20.420 attack or something like that made up after the fact. This happened ages ago. And again,

00:26:25.460 when the people are like, you know, you shouldn't strike back or you should, you're playing to

00:26:29.860 Israel's hand when you assassinate their leader because they tried to assassinate your leader,

00:26:33.520 you know, just take it when they try to assassinate your leader. If acting with strength

00:26:37.900 and not like a cuck is going to potentially help israel's interest and i'm like that

00:26:43.740 i mean that's that's really cucked behavior man to to consider so much that this could help

00:26:51.400 the jews therefore we shouldn't do it i see that as just wild so i for my position like

00:26:57.980 if i'm ever president and somebody attempts to have me assassinated i'm like okay i'm probably

00:27:01.260 gonna do something else but i want to go more into this assassination i think a lot of people

00:27:04.040 on the right i don't know they forgot about it or it wasn't reported to them i i didn't i don't

00:27:08.720 think i knew about it i knew about the one in butler i knew about the guy with the outside the

00:27:15.240 golf course i didn't know about the other ones that that was only news to me after you brought

00:27:18.800 it up after this conflict started yeah so if merchant he was a 46 year old pakistani man

00:27:25.420 who had recently spent a long period of time in iran receiving training and meetings from handlers

00:27:30.580 entered the united states in 2024 he attempted to recruit hitmen to assassinate u.s politicians

00:27:36.240 or government officials explicitly including trump although he was also open to targeting

00:27:42.080 biden and nikki haley according to some accounts plan involved document theft staging protests at

00:27:48.220 rallies and killings he was arrested july 12 2024 all in the biden administration in houston as he

00:27:56.760 tried to escape the country so like this isn't like a a vague thing he was convicted march 6

00:28:02.900 2026 in brooklyn federal court on a murder to hire attempt and then the second plot farhad

00:28:09.900 shakai shakai 51 living in iran was tasked by irgc officials september 2024 to surveil and

00:28:16.740 kill trump then a candidate and later president-elect on october 7th 2024 they specifically

00:28:22.720 ordered him to drop other targets and delivered an assassination plan and deliver an assassination

00:28:27.840 plan within seven days i love that like he's a white collar worker hey this is taking too long

00:28:33.140 this trump assassination thing drop get this report on my desk monday i want to report monday

00:28:38.980 next week yeah it's so weird it's so weirdly bureaucratic what on earth i thought you know

00:28:45.200 in the movies just like do it get it done but like these guys are like knowing you just need

00:28:49.340 a plan make sure he recorded two u.s based criminals uh carl c riviera aka pop 49 of

00:28:57.200 brooklyn and jonathan loadholt 36 of staten island who met in prison to help shakira who

00:29:03.440 remains at large in iran in multiple recorded fbi interviews after oh by the way the the way the

00:29:09.540 fbi got the first time is one of the people he recruited to attempt to kill trump with an fbi

00:29:14.720 informant like it's the evidence is super big on on the guy number one so for this one how do we

00:29:21.040 know shakai directly admitted the irgc directives including prioritizing trump in multiple recorded

00:29:28.520 fbi interviews after initial contact so they were able to contact him and he admitted this came

00:29:33.760 directly from the iranian military okay i just think it's important to to know this and he was

00:29:38.380 like how do we actually know that iran is funding terrorism that is targeting the united states and

00:29:43.800 that one really got me that's just like that's Iran's entire geopolitical strategy for the past

00:29:49.900 decade this isn't like a rumor mill this is like arguing that China has never said they want to

00:29:55.700 take Taiwan or something like that right like no it's true that many of the groups you know whether

00:30:00.620 it's the the Hussies or Hamas or whatever also want to kill Israel and that they consider killing

00:30:06.800 Israel higher in their priority list so it is better for Israel than the United States that

00:30:12.720 this has happened but it does not mean that it isn't also good for the united states you know

00:30:18.060 al-qaeda had a lot of targets other than the united states but we still had 9-11 right like

00:30:24.200 you just leave groups around to grow and molder that want to kill you for long enough and let

00:30:30.400 them be funded to the tune of i pointed out in the last episode it's literally i think around

00:30:34.280 an average of 3 billion or 4 billion a year from iran um eventually you're going to get a very big

00:30:40.640 attack you know we're not always going to be able to stop it as we did in these instances

00:30:44.200 and i just think to to be like oh i don't i don't care it actually reminds me of my friend i've

00:30:51.380 mentioned this story a few times but it's always so visceral for me it is stuck with me it was a

00:30:55.140 girlfriend of mine's when i was growing up grandfather who survived the holocaust and he

00:30:59.560 describes running around like to different houses in his jewish neighborhood with the book the book

00:31:06.300 that Hitler had released Mein Kampf and he's like guys you need to read this he says he wants to

00:31:11.320 kill us like we need to get out of the country and they basically treated him like he was crazy

00:31:17.720 and began to blacklist him from things and he ended up having to break into his girlfriend's

00:31:22.300 house at night and basically kidnap her and run away and you know obviously he did well I you

00:31:28.360 know hung out with his granddaughter I hope she does well she's a really cool person but you know

00:31:32.200 he's the guy running around like there's a group out there that says they want to kill us right

00:31:37.500 like why is everybody acting like this isn't a big deal i feel a bit like the people out there

00:31:43.340 who keep saying yeah iran said death to america all the time but they didn't really want to kill

00:31:48.740 us right yeah they kind of remind me of those cut jews who all ended up getting wiped out when they

00:31:54.920 didn't listen to that guy right it's like they're saying it and the big thing that got trump it's

00:32:01.260 been reported that in the negotiations to try to get them to give up their nukes they mentioned in

00:32:08.000 no uncertain terms that they already had the uranium for 11 nukes and could have them made

00:32:13.780 in weeks yeah when iran was questioned about this what iran said is they said well we didn't

00:32:21.140 threaten them but we did tell them how many nukes we could make with the uranium we have right now

00:32:26.200 You know, like, so Iran admitted that that's the situation they were in.

00:32:32.340 Well, even I've heard progressive people covering this saying, basically,

00:32:38.340 Iran has always been very clear that they don't have nukes.

00:32:41.820 They just want all the materials to be able to make them as optionality.

00:32:45.360 We are two months away from enriching weapons-grade uranium.

00:32:52.040 To be used for peaceful purposes.

00:32:56.200 and that was as if like uh because of course that's super reasonable

00:33:09.220 for someone who says death to america and death to israel like that we should be okay with that

00:33:15.760 and like i just don't understand you know like like oh they're never gonna bake the cake i mean

00:33:22.500 they just want to have all the specialized ingredients to make the cake then they can

00:33:26.580 make it in like 30 minutes but they're not going to bake it i know i think a better analogy is

00:33:32.380 you catch your wife with husband killing poison and you're like why do you have husband killing

00:33:39.020 poison and she goes i never meant to use the husband killing poison i just wanted it as like

00:33:44.160 deterrence you know i just want to have it because i hate you yeah i mean later that day you hear her

00:33:51.140 say her prayers at night. Please, God, kill my husband. Please kill my husband. I want to kill

00:33:57.160 my husband. And then you ask her about that and you go, it's just like my religion. It's like a

00:34:05.720 weird regional clerk of, you know, my way of doing things. And then you believe that and you're not

00:34:12.160 the mega cuck just because you might accidentally help the Jews by, you know, telling her, hey,

00:34:17.320 you know we need to do something about the husband killing poison lady right but the reason why i've

00:34:22.080 become you know as i said pro this is because iran's reaction to all of this has been to target

00:34:30.780 their former allies both economically and militarily right which is huge for us because

00:34:41.200 it means that even if we stop bombing right now right and iran keeps the straight of her moose

00:34:47.600 closed yes we'll deal with some economic hit but the bigger economic hit is going to be china

00:34:51.240 and then china is going to be begging us to start the campaign again so that they can get the

00:34:54.840 straight of her moose open and they literally would be like china would be like on its knees

00:34:58.840 like hey united states let's do a joint operation or something i'm i'm sure we can make it work now

00:35:06.280 Europe would be lickety split with those boats down there. And I agree with what Trump has said

00:35:12.080 in regards to this, that European leaders, and they did, by the way, it was the first bombing

00:35:17.420 of Iran, it was the second, said, yeah, go ahead, bomb Iran. Like, this is in all of our best

00:35:22.100 interest. But then they refused to send us support. And he's like, what's the point of NATO

00:35:25.980 if it doesn't mean defense for the United States? Because apparently that's what it means.

00:35:31.000 when they could say oh well you guys started this war whatever whatever we are now in in terms of

00:35:37.480 getting the strainer free moves open that that is about europe and china okay like defending their

00:35:43.640 economic interests if we just pulled out the really interesting geopolitical thing that's

00:35:48.840 going to happen is if iran does not if they're like we want to continue to make this hurt from

00:35:54.920 everyone which they might given this mosaic leadership they might have yes we'll have a

00:36:00.280 depression, but the depression will be focused in Europe and Asia, and those countries will be

00:36:05.940 sort of in a position forced to get the United States back in on this and back working on this.

00:36:10.640 So if I was in Trump's position, I might even pull out just to force that position, because that

00:36:16.380 would be a very interesting geopolitical one. But even if we don't have that, even if we do

00:36:21.120 get this all over with in Iran, not only is one of our largest enemies geopolitically at all

00:36:27.760 off the stage but the the new cold war in the middle east between the uae and saudi arabia

00:36:34.760 which i'll get to in a second is between two people who are fairly friendly with and are

00:36:38.400 unlikely to you know go death to america over this although saudi arabia does fund a lot

00:36:44.540 of terrorist related groups that do eventually target the united states so we're on one side

00:36:50.280 of that one we're probably closer to the uae side i mean imagine if next is saudi arabia but

00:36:57.560 the the the point here because saudi arabia would suck at defending themselves they've shown

00:37:02.360 themselves to be completely militarily incompetent but that is a whole and somebody actually did try

00:37:07.780 to attack saudi arabia they would fall much quicker than iran for it has to do with how the

00:37:12.320 royal family projects power i don't know that's that's another video that i don't need to go into

00:37:18.360 um but right now we're friendly with saudi arabia and saudi arabia one of the reasons they keep

00:37:23.060 friendly ties with us is because they are aware of that. Although, keep in mind, 9-11 was

00:37:28.140 fundamentally Saudi Arabia's fault at the end of the day. That was from the groups that they fund

00:37:32.020 in the same way that Iran friends groups that want to attack the United States. But if Trump

00:37:37.720 doesn't do the pullout thing, how else can he realistically end this? He needs some leverage

00:37:43.980 other than I will stop bombing. The leverage that everyone's thinking about right now is

00:37:52.000 Karg Island. Yeah, that's what I figured, which is why I assumed that by this point,

00:37:56.560 we would have had troops basically holding it, American troops holding it hostage,

00:38:02.180 essentially, functionally. Yeah. So Karg Island is a three by four mile island that makes up

00:38:10.100 approximately 90% of the country's oil exports. This is because it has deep water shipping lanes

00:38:15.780 next to it and nowhere else in that region of Iran has that. And so Iran doesn't really have

00:38:21.660 any other way to get out oil from its country. If we destroyed Karg Island, which I do not think

00:38:28.700 we should do, any government that came into power after this was in Iran would be just in poverty

00:38:36.060 for decades, especially given Iran's already critical condition in regards to water and

00:38:41.700 infrastructure. It would slit the throat of Iran and lead to a massive refugee crisis in Europe,

00:38:48.480 which would be bad now i will note it wouldn't be as bad as some other refugee crises oh god how do

00:39:00.860 i say this so a lot of the listen no i'll put it this way i'll put it this way and i think anyone

00:39:09.160 who's watching this is well aware of the fact that iranians are awesome if you know iranians

00:39:13.800 in america if you're an american yep you probably like them i think what really changed people's

00:39:17.920 views on Iranians was, oh God, that's chef. We hung out with a bunch of young people who collect

00:39:24.260 basically an informal car club of collectors of American muscle cars. It feels very much

00:39:31.040 like Southern California or Barcelona and Tehran at times in a very hopeful place filled with

00:39:38.020 yearning where people every day, particularly women, I think, are in very small ways testing

00:39:48.060 the limits of what is permissible, trying to define in fits and starts who they want

00:39:55.960 to be as a country, what is appropriate, what is okay today that may not be okay tomorrow.

00:40:01.220 It's a very interesting thing to see.

00:40:03.620 Did you feel resentment toward you being American?

00:40:06.940 Zero.

00:40:07.120 zero who died who's who's really curmudgeonly did an episode in iran and they were just basically

00:40:13.680 like americans like backyard barbecue cool based americans and yeah that was what changed everyone's

00:40:19.980 view on iranians they were like oh my god these are based amazing people and honestly like you

00:40:26.820 should be so lucky to have them no so the point the point is is iranians are persians they're not

00:40:32.840 arabs most of the problematic islamic populations and immigration waves that europe has had to deal

00:40:39.800 with are arabs and arabic culture which is very different from persians and persian culture

00:40:47.060 and traditionally speaking iranian migrants especially within the united states i don't

00:40:53.860 know if it's been as much in europe have been a very positive immigrant population yeah i don't

00:41:02.300 want to say like model immigrant because they definitely have some you know aesthetic deficiencies

00:41:08.300 for your opinion as south park would would point out

00:41:12.420 stood out in front of their bar to stop the persians from entering

00:41:17.820 we're coming in and redecorating the hell you are you should take your blue carpet and gold

00:41:24.680 current rods and shove it up your persian butthole all right come on they can't stop all of us

00:41:33.140 Anthony Bourdain.

00:41:34.500 Oh, God, that's a real wild.

00:41:35.640 The song that Trump is secretly Iranian

00:41:37.620 because he's got the aesthetics of an Iranian.

00:41:40.660 It's a look that some people like.

00:41:42.220 It was Anthony Bourdain that really turned

00:41:43.660 a lot of people on to Iranians.

00:41:45.600 But no, no, Trump really is, like,

00:41:47.760 if you have had Iranian friends or-

00:41:50.480 Trump is Persian.

00:41:51.380 It's fine.

00:41:52.400 It's fine.

00:41:53.140 Trump comes off culturally way more Persian

00:41:58.880 than he does WASPy.

00:41:59.900 The first Persian president.

00:42:01.200 yes and we have our song the first person president because i mean even the way he does

00:42:05.400 decoration where like i if you go to a waspy person's house like one of the signs that you

00:42:08.940 always see is it's like the random pictures of houses and boats and horses and he's got no

00:42:14.420 pictures of no actually like look at trump's stuff it's it's a geometric path it's like no

00:42:18.900 horses no boats no houses no when i feel like there's almost like a children's book game like

00:42:25.540 spot the new gold item in the oval office every time there's a new press conference there

00:42:30.580 can you spot the difference where's the new gold item i like gold i love gold

00:42:39.380 the look of it the taste of it yeah but the point being is you shouldn't expect the same

00:42:47.280 problems from an iranian refugee crisis that you have with other islamic refugee crises it's not

00:42:56.000 that there wouldn't be any issues but there wouldn't be as bad as say like a pakistani

00:43:03.440 refugee crisis or something like that so it's a side note over there so a lot of people have said

00:43:10.660 so so if you if you did that that's that's what would be the result of that and if you cut off

00:43:16.460 their access to the north whatever gas pipeline you'd have again a refugee crisis which you know

00:43:23.780 we want to prevent. And we also want whatever comes next to be able to economically get itself

00:43:28.660 off the ground. You know, our goal is to defang them. It is not to economically cripple them

00:43:33.560 forever and ever and ever. Now, Trump has said that he may bomb Card Island again, just for

00:43:37.700 funsies. Literally, he said, just for fun, I may bomb it again. I cannot believe we have a president

00:43:42.780 who said that in a press conference, sort of trying to show that it's open as a potentiality.

00:43:47.820 but what everyone's thinking now is boots on the ground. Does it make sense?

00:43:53.320 If we controlled Karg Island, what the president would likely do is just be like, no, we'll let

00:43:57.940 you to continue to use it under U.S. military occupation, exactly as you always have. You just

00:44:04.480 need to play nice, right? You just need to keep the straight open. You need to do everything like

00:44:08.060 that. We won't even charge a tariff, but we'll just set up a permanent military base here.

00:44:11.640 that would give us a lot of negotiating power assuming iran is still actually governed by a

00:44:20.160 single central authority but you believe that that is just not the case anymore i believe that's not

00:44:27.100 the case anymore and if iran is not governed by a central authority anymore they don't particularly

00:44:33.000 care that you've done this they might even shoot their own infrastructure without care because all

00:44:39.140 they care about is gaining control of what's left and that's where i come down to so is it the right

00:44:47.200 call to attempt to and what i would do with karg island is i would not say boots on the ground in

00:44:53.440 karg island i'd say make karg island a permanent u.s military base or nothing like that is i think

00:45:00.160 the option for karg island if you are going to bother to attempt to take this and that 90 percent

00:45:05.860 of Iranian oil goes through it, make it a permanent U.S. military base in the region.

00:45:10.800 And if you start to signal that, the important thing about signaling that in the same way that

00:45:15.800 Iran keeps signaling that we want reparations, which just sounds laughable, right? Is you need

00:45:21.640 something to walk back from, right? So you can say, okay, Iran, you win. We won't make it a

00:45:26.700 permanent base, right? Like we'll do a five-year lease or something like that, right? But that

00:45:32.660 would give us something to then say okay iran you can have karg island back in exchange for good

00:45:38.420 behavior here here and here right and i'll note here the thing that i i keep noting with the the

00:45:47.260 other players in the random flailing of iran is going into this war what i would have thought

00:45:56.720 geopolitically speaking is the best case scenario realistic scenario is we defang iran we destroy

00:46:04.480 you know their leadership structure their military etc and and that's the best we can hope for i did

00:46:11.920 not also expect that we would have the potentiality of geopolitically isolating iran from their

00:46:18.280 closest allies but somehow that also was in the cards i i would not have expected we would have

00:46:24.580 come out of this on better terms with Qatar and I ran on worse terms with Qatar for yeah yeah that

00:46:31.140 is wild I wouldn't have thought that they would target Chinese shipping right like I I all of

00:46:39.300 this stuff has really surprised me so let's now talk about the new civil war that's opening up

00:46:45.300 okay we're just warlord power grab is is it that they're trying to show off their resources and

00:46:54.220 also trying to demonstrate their international geopolitical prowess by essentially holding other

00:47:01.760 countries hostage, like own citizens and assets hostage. So like, let's say I'm Bob, the Iranian

00:47:10.240 warlord or faction leader, and I have access to these warheads. And so I'm going to hit this

00:47:17.660 building in dubai to show both the other factions in iran and also dubai that i am a person to be

00:47:24.940 reckoned with and when i call you you pick up the phone and that i'm the guy with the most

00:47:30.180 ability is what's happening or what this is actually a really useful psychology to sort

00:47:35.980 of dig into to understand what's happening okay okay i am x guy at it was control of x munition

00:47:44.200 platform right yeah and i have a few choices with where i send those missiles okay choice number

00:47:54.220 one i send them at israel the goy beam hits them and nothing happens yeah it's just more wasted

00:47:59.620 money we all know that doesn't work yeah okay two i try to hit a u.s base maybe but probably

00:48:07.700 nothing's gonna happen right in the work yeah three retaliate 10 times over then then i'm the

00:48:13.520 next target yeah three i shoot into a civilian district in dubai or in qatari very expensive

00:48:24.180 gas field or something like that right and i actually get that hit because i'm likely to get

00:48:29.620 that hit they don't have the defenses these other places have yeah and they also maybe don't have

00:48:33.100 the intel to even know who i am or where i am whereas israel like massad knows the cia knows

00:48:38.600 so i get that hit now there's news in iran about this thing that just happened some people might

00:48:49.000 think oh that's geopolitically bad for us but it it is making news and the reality is is that most

00:48:58.520 people who are in the irgc and who are hardliners are going to think that anything that is happening

00:49:05.080 at all on the war front is definitionally good because to say oh well yes we did get that attack

00:49:12.500 through but it was a bad idea that doesn't make you look cool to the other foaming at the mouse

00:49:17.960 hardliners right so then it's your next board meeting or whatever three people are there one

00:49:27.260 goes i hit a qatari gas field you know another said i hit a a uae because other people are doing

00:49:33.600 this now, making it okay for you, civilian district. The third guy's just like, well,

00:49:36.540 I tried to launch some at Israel. Who do you think has, has the power in that meeting? It's,

00:49:43.240 it's not the, I tried to hit Israel like a good boy one. Okay. It's the ones who made something

00:49:50.200 that hit the news actually happen. And I think that that's the psychology that's driving this

00:49:58.200 behavior of course there is an alternate here which i wouldn't put it above them now if you

00:50:05.300 remember in our last iranian video we mentioned that iran put together a task force to hunt down

00:50:11.340 sad agents in the iranian government which they then had to shut down when it turned out it had

00:50:15.740 20 massad agents inside of it one of them was leading it um iran's government is riddled with

00:50:22.940 Mossad what we may have right now is a Mossad on Mossad war oh my god it could be that a lot of

00:50:29.860 these decentralized power structures basically Mossad kills people all the way down until they're

00:50:35.860 at a Mossad agent and then that agent says yeah let's shoot our oldest and closest ally in the

00:50:42.600 region and then he does and then the president's like what what's going on here and then all the

00:50:48.320 other still alive top agents with access to missiles in iran are like oh yeah yeah yeah

00:50:56.200 that was a great thing in fact i'm gonna do that next because they're all also massad agents

00:51:01.760 doing whatever would be the literal stupidest thing iran could do at the moment is

00:51:07.720 after is wild if true pager thing yeah see our episode on that yeah we can't put it past them

00:51:17.800 At this point, any wild plot like that could very well be the case.

00:51:22.100 I mean, they play the long game.

00:51:23.640 Now, this is clearly the war extending is more in Israel's benefit than America's benefit.

00:51:28.240 But as I pointed out, geopolitically and economically, it's long term in America's interest.

00:51:32.680 But let's get to this Cold War between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

00:51:38.520 Saudi Arabia wants strong centralized Arab states under legitimate governments.

00:51:44.580 So their focus is border security, oil market control, and Vision 2030 leadership, and containing Iran through traditional alliances.

00:51:54.100 The UAE prefers a quote-unquote maritime empire model, transactional deals, port control, and backing strongmen proxies and separatists who give Abu Dhabi leverage, more comfortable with fragmentation if it secures trade routes and counters Islamists.

00:52:11.380 so it's really sort of a athens versus sparta fight interestingly right like sparta may seem

00:52:19.640 like more of the ruthless strongman but they deal better with legitimate states whereas athens was

00:52:26.780 notorious for just like i don't care if i destabilize your region if i can get shipping

00:52:31.220 whatever right like if i can get my slaves coming through whatever right but it felt more like a

00:52:37.000 democracy when you're in athens right like the maritime empire model where you see this is in

00:52:43.820 yemen which is the hottest flashpoint right now the saudi-backed faction the internationally

00:52:48.060 recognized presidential leadership council plc led by rasholad al-amini plus allied tribes and

00:52:54.740 some islama party muslim brotherhood linked elements goal keep yemen united to protect

00:53:01.040 Saudi's southern border. UAE-backed faction is the Southern Transnational Council, the STC,

00:53:10.460 which has a goal of independence or heavy autonomy for the south, plus control of Aden,

00:53:16.300 McCullough Port, Scotia Island, and Bab al-Mondo Strait shipping routes. So basically,

00:53:23.840 the UAE is willing to blow up Yemen if it can gain control of shipping routes. Saudi Arabia

00:53:29.780 wants to keep a legitimate state in power there. And these two forces have been actively fighting.

00:53:35.720 And then you have the Sudan. The Saudi backs the SAF, the central government of Khotan,

00:53:40.680 and the UAE backs the RSF, parallel militaries that control much of the gold trade and Red Sea

00:53:48.540 routes in the region. Both have been pouring in money and weapons. Then you have the Horn of

00:53:53.680 Africa and Red Sea ports. On the UAE side, you have heavy investment in the breakaway Somaliland,

00:53:58.920 which Israel just recognized, by the way, and the Borber port base and the influence of

00:54:04.600 Dejede, Araka, and Scotia, a strategy, a string of naval and logistics outputs. They're basically

00:54:09.220 trying to control independent wealthy cities and terrorist factions or breakaway groups instead of

00:54:14.700 the central thing. While Somalia is backed by Saudi Arabia, there's a number of other theaters.

00:54:22.520 We might do a whole other episode on this that would be interesting. The interesting thing about

00:54:27.640 this is the uae faction is generally also supported by israel which puts israel on the uae side of

00:54:37.180 this split which is odd because from what i've been seeing saudi arabia has really wanted to

00:54:44.140 get close to israel up until the gaza war they seem to really really want and this might have

00:54:50.700 been what triggered the the war recognition talks with israel and if you're like oh yeah i remember

00:54:56.020 way way way way back when october 7th first happened you were explaining that to me you're

00:55:00.580 like you know they were just getting so good at this point there would be an incentive to try to

00:55:07.260 undermine that relationship because iran felt threatened by that strengthening relationship

00:55:13.620 which avoided their strategic position with some of my israeli friends and they just don't believe

00:55:19.160 this they're like that's not true like the saudi arabia is hostile to us like the prince is hostile

00:55:24.500 to us you know look at these geopolitics here here and here and i and i my core argument against that

00:55:30.680 is neom you're familiar with the neom project right that's not well yeah but that's botched

00:55:37.860 right it's not gonna it was eventually canceled and it might show a shifting in saudi arabia's

00:55:42.620 priorities but do you remember where naomi naom is on a map no this giant a line in the desert i

00:55:52.260 mean like the sand a sandbox or it ended on the coast right didn't it basically as close to israel

00:56:00.040 as you could get oh really that is what it was it was right in a area so you could take a quick ferry

00:56:05.680 from israel to naom oh it's like one end of it yes it was like a like a long train track that

00:56:13.600 just ended it israel yeah not near any other important city in saudi arabia not near important

00:56:20.800 oil field oh interesting right so it was yeah because i just remember it being an isolated

00:56:24.960 line in the sand that's like how i visualized it yeah it's not an isolated line in the sand

00:56:30.820 basically it was like a line emanating from israel going into the middle of the sand

00:56:35.260 yeah it's it's it's very very clear that this was meant to have a fairy connection

00:56:42.180 to israel and be like little israel in saudi arabia or maybe it was going to be the the

00:56:48.700 dubai of israel like you go there for weird vacations and stuff well yeah no that that's

00:56:52.800 that's clearly what the idea was is to facilitate you don't invest the future which is what they

00:56:58.460 were doing was this investment project without israel country in a project like this if you

00:57:03.720 think you're going to be at war or in an active conflict with israel no oh and then that falling

00:57:10.080 i can't remember when sort of that was abandoned as a plan but that being abandoned as a plan after

00:57:15.640 october 7th war with the uae began to heat up you mean after the israel-palestine conflict

00:57:22.140 heated up uh well no no it's more the uae sadi arabia doesn't care about gaza like that's all

00:57:28.740 just posturing on their part which they have to do because the royal family has to look good

00:57:33.540 to the wahhabis that's a whole other thing that basically they only control power because they

00:57:38.740 made this deal with the wahhabis that's like our family which really got power pretty illegitimately

00:57:43.520 through a power grab, is able to hold that power and will be legitimated so long as we

00:57:50.020 legitimate the Wahhabis. And it's the Wahhabis that want this. So that's what's going on now.

00:57:56.540 On our weekend episode, we also discussed, which I think is pretty cool, the strategy the United

00:58:01.860 States has been using in the region. So I'll just quickly go over that. Yeah, B-52. Okay.

00:58:08.280 so what we have been doing is using bombers that are literally half a century old 50 years old or

00:58:17.440 older these were made in the 1950s and they stopped making them i think like 1965 to take

00:58:23.740 really old munitions remember i talked about using older munitions like wanting to clear out our

00:58:28.160 munitions this is when everyone's like oh you're wasting munitions on this these are not planes

00:58:32.920 that we ever would have been able to use we're reaching into deep into the reaches of our pantry

00:58:37.300 and using dusty expired canned goods yes so what we did is we were flying in it looks like

00:58:45.440 unarmed drones slowly through like corridors to try to establish that they were now safe

00:58:52.980 corridors over and over and over again and this is how we lost seven of those and once we had

00:58:57.340 established a corridor was safe we then with backing for these things got these what can only

00:59:02.720 be thought of like dump trucks of the sky or like giant delivery trucks um not even like really

00:59:09.280 military planes anymore to just dump ungodly amounts of bombs in these completely unprotected

00:59:17.700 corridors and this is just wild to me that it's also wild to me that we're still hearing about

00:59:24.940 that school that was bombed because that kind of implies that there haven't been any other major

00:59:28.520 tragedy since then which is a pretty good record for a war of this nature so that's the other

00:59:34.680 positive news we've had since then but yeah i mean these these giant old planes dumping out

00:59:41.360 basically expired payloads to cut down on our storage costs that's that's where we are right

00:59:47.420 now in this war and keep in mind these planes are very inexpensive to fly when contrasted with other

00:59:52.440 military aircraft which is another reason we're doing them for these long runs so to to close

00:59:58.480 things out there is a a possibility things could go wrong if the administration miscalculates

01:00:05.780 and maybe sees the government in iran is being less fractured than it really is however i'm not

01:00:12.320 totally against boots on the ground either if it meant just carg ireland and if we were using it

01:00:17.360 of the negotiating trip to get other things that we wanted like not necessarily a military base

01:00:23.260 but if we just kind of took it and for lack of a more euphemistic term held it hostage and basically

01:00:30.860 were like we'll control this as your custodian yeah we'll become his custodian and well we do

01:00:36.960 have you know trust it the island and all of its infrastructure was built up by american and

01:00:43.560 european companies it was stolen by the current government of iran when they socialized oh so

01:00:48.300 this was after the tank war between iraq and iran well no they like the 80s no no no no no

01:00:54.280 park island it's oil infrastructure if i recall correctly was was destroyed in the iraq iran war

01:01:02.020 it was heavily damaged but the original infrastructure from before that was built

01:01:05.980 oh okay so you know you could just say you stole all this from us to begin with

01:01:13.260 we'd be taking it back yeah okay um anyway love you today simone me too fantastic developments

01:01:23.400 although you know obviously we mourn for service members who have died in the conflict so far

01:01:27.900 which have mercifully been very very small anyone who gets hurt i unbelievably small the

01:01:34.800 casualty rates that we've been looking at did you like uh and we can only pray that it continues

01:01:39.820 Yeah, I do feel very glad to at least live in an age where our conflicts aren't, let's go send guys to shoot each other in a field. It's nice that at least they're more like, let's try to build a democracy in Iran.

01:02:00.040 yeah you did an interesting episode on that a while back about how some cultures just don't

01:02:08.580 take well to certain forms of governance and that for for you to just be like everyone needs

01:02:13.440 democracy or everyone needs monarchy like it's not appropriate you just you gotta you gotta allow

01:02:20.480 people to do what works best for them from a governing standpoint keeping keeping in mind

01:02:25.060 their cultural mixture, their religious mixture, their genetics, the region, everything, their

01:02:32.400 resources. It all matters. And democracy is not right everywhere. So yeah, I agree with you. I'm

01:02:36.700 glad we're not. Well, I ended up saying democracy doesn't generally work for Arabs, but for Persians

01:02:42.880 it might. I was trying to be a little more diplomatic than that. Well, I mean, the statistics

01:02:47.460 are clear. Like if you're looking at Protestant countries, for example, there have been only a few

01:02:53.360 instances in all history where they were not a form of democracy whereas and today almost all

01:03:00.900 our democracies where if you look at arab countries none has stayed i think there's been

01:03:05.260 only one instance of one staying a democracy for over 10 years or i think it was 20 no it might be

01:03:11.020 over 25 years only an instance of one for over 25 years and that's just astonishing given the number

01:03:16.080 of arab majority countries there are yeah like clearly something culturally is going on there

01:03:20.880 yeah so why force something when it's not gonna work clearly

01:03:23.960 yep but anyway love you to decimum love you too gorgeous

01:03:30.080 which one next oh the kids are so excited to get chickens and fortunately they they've all

01:03:39.820 decided that they want the three different types that we want so each person has requested

01:03:45.360 our favorite types like saving wants starlight green eggers because they're orange and orange

01:03:52.320 is his favorite color and torsten wants the blue eggers because blue is my favorite color and

01:03:58.180 titan wants the black ones because it's cool so you just want more of the same i thought you didn't

01:04:02.880 like the black ones as much they're so friendly though and they have those beautiful iridescent

01:04:07.680 black feathers and that was like that was the kind they're also the smartest that's the kind

01:04:12.260 that has gotten out twice escaped twice so today it was trotsky and they're so easy to get back in

01:04:20.480 like the the blue eggers are not very nice or friendly is this all the blue eggers or just the

01:04:28.100 ones from the the older ones oh the ones that we that like grew up in a factory farm ish environment

01:04:34.740 not even that though like it was just a nice pennsylvania farm but still like mass produced

01:04:40.100 yeah they they all aren't that friendly they're more skittish whereas the midnight morons are

01:04:46.260 the most friendly the the starlight green eggers are also pretty skittish they don't like being

01:04:51.160 picked up and petted as much but it's the most difficult to go after the

01:04:57.200 wagers strides through hallways decked in gold so bright like a sultan's palace glowing day

01:05:07.380 and night. Marble pillars glimmer, echoing his name. A Persian king or president, one and the same.

01:05:21.280 Shimmering drapes, plush rugs under each foot. A fortress of bling that no one can refute.

01:05:30.020 gold leaf on the ceiling mirrors everywhere he's bold he's brash who else would even dare

01:05:39.840 where are the paintings of boats of horses so rare random cottages and frames why aren't they

01:05:48.620 there and where the model ships decked out in their coats we're asking our first persian

01:05:57.480 show us those boats

01:06:00.000 he bedazzles ballrooms each corner ornate

01:06:07.220 like something out of ancient lore or so we state

01:06:12.340 halls paved in splendor shining under the light

01:06:16.800 surprise surprise he's got style though it's quite a sight

01:06:21.420 he claims he's classy with flair unmatched a thousand chandeliers perfectly dispatched

01:06:33.700 grand turrets big fountains exotic mystique all hail our persian prez so lavish unique

01:06:43.020 where are the paintings of boats of horses so rare random cottages and frames

01:06:51.360 Why aren't they there?

01:06:53.720 And we're the mortal ships

01:06:56.400 Decked out in their coats

01:06:58.880 We're asking our first Persian friends

01:07:01.760 Show us those boats

01:07:03.660 Every corner gilded

01:07:09.720 Every surface gleams

01:07:11.720 Like Sha'era fantasies

01:07:14.320 Fresh out of dreams

01:07:16.060 Marble upon marble

01:07:19.120 A treasure trove of hue

01:07:21.380 Yes, it's gaudy, but hey

01:07:23.940 It's trumped through and through

01:07:26.180 Where are the paintings of boats

01:07:28.860 Of horses so rare

01:07:31.160 Random cottages in frames

01:07:33.300 Why aren't they there?

01:07:35.720 And where are the model ships

01:07:38.440 Decked out in their coats

01:07:40.860 Our gilded Persian president

01:07:43.120 Please bring on those boats

01:07:49.120 Thank you.

Based Camp - March 23, 2026

Iran Gov Broke & Everyone Is Missing the Signs

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