Based Camp - August 20, 2024


Is Idiocracy Coming? Genetics, IQ, & Realistic Outcomes


Episode Stats

Length

45 minutes

Words per Minute

167.25719

Word Count

7,616

Sentence Count

414

Misogynist Sentences

14

Hate Speech Sentences

19


Summary

Is there a link between genetics and human IQ decline? Is it genetic, or is it environmental? Is there a demographic collapse coming? Are we destined to become an Idiocracy-style society like the one depicted in the film "Idiocracy"? In this episode, we discuss the growing evidence that genetics is to blame for the decline in human IQ.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 With no natural predators to thin the herd, it began to reward those who reproduced the most.
00:00:06.020 Having kids is such an important decision.
00:00:09.660 We're just waiting for the right time.
00:00:11.420 It's not something you want to rush into, obviously.
00:00:13.860 Oh, shit, I'm pregnant again!
00:00:16.300 Shit! I got too many damn kids!
00:00:19.120 There's no way we could have a child now.
00:00:21.400 Not with the market the way it is, no.
00:00:23.160 Oh, God, no.
00:00:24.300 Come on over here, bitch! He don't care about you!
00:00:27.700 Well, we finally decided to have children, and it's not going well.
00:00:33.120 Yeah! Yeah! I'm gonna fuck all of y'all!
00:00:37.060 That's my boy!
00:00:38.560 Woo!
00:00:39.900 Yeah!
00:00:41.100 IQ is dropping by about 0.2 points annually in some regions.
00:00:45.700 This may seem like a trivial decline, but when you consider the standard deviation of IQ is 15 points,
00:00:51.140 such a decline, if sustained, will lead to a drop by one standard deviation every 75 years.
00:00:57.100 Should this trend hold in those regions, in just 125 years, your average human will have an IQ
00:01:03.720 that would, today, qualify someone as intellectually disabled.
00:01:07.740 Would you like to know more?
00:01:09.460 Hello, Simone! It is wonderful to be speaking with you today.
00:01:11.840 Today, we are going to be asking the question,
00:01:15.700 is an idiocracy-style future true?
00:01:18.240 Is the IQ of humanity declining over time?
00:01:22.760 I have read, in one of our comments, they're like,
00:01:24.720 well, you know, this person thinks that you guys believe that human IQ is declining over time,
00:01:29.520 and we stay away from a lot of the controversial genetic stuff.
00:01:33.900 However, this is the one controversial genetics topic where I'm like,
00:01:38.280 people really need to be realistic about the data.
00:01:41.760 You can't help yourself.
00:01:43.620 Well, yeah.
00:01:45.180 It's just the data in this is so loud and from so many different angles,
00:01:49.300 and it will create real problems from society if we try to ignore this or pretend it's not happening.
00:01:55.440 So, I mean, I'm just going to start with a recent study that I saw that was like,
00:01:58.840 okay, yeah, we've got to be taking this seriously.
00:02:00.340 So, this study shows that the mean IQ of U.S. college students has been dropping by 0.2 points per year
00:02:08.580 since the mid-20th century.
00:02:11.780 And this phenomenon has been well-documented in many sources,
00:02:14.980 and it's called the reverse Flynn effect.
00:02:17.200 Historically, you had something called the Flynn effect where all around the world,
00:02:20.520 IQ was increasing pretty much every year.
00:02:23.520 And the reason why you had the Flynn effect was because nutrition was increasing.
00:02:28.700 But once nutritional needs, as they relate to brain development saturated in the human population,
00:02:37.020 then dysgenics appears to be the primary cause that IQ was going down.
00:02:42.040 But we'll get into this in more detail with lots of citations for this one,
00:02:45.480 because I'm actually going to be going to a quote from our book.
00:02:49.320 So, we're going to read a little passage from the book,
00:02:51.520 The Pragmatist Guide to Crafting Religion, and go over it.
00:02:53.940 All right.
00:02:54.620 Are we destined to become a society reminiscent of the nightmarish dystopia
00:02:58.680 depicted in the film Idiocracy?
00:03:01.160 Kick-ass.
00:03:02.800 Well, don't want to sound like a dick or nothing,
00:03:05.300 but it says on your chart that you're fucked up.
00:03:08.660 You talk like a fag, and your shit's all retarded.
00:03:12.060 What I do is just say, you know, you know what I mean?
00:03:18.080 Don't worry, Skrull.
00:03:19.500 Now there are plenty of tards out there living really kick-ass lives.
00:03:22.740 My first wife was tarded.
00:03:25.080 She's a pilot now.
00:03:26.040 We mostly steer clear of fearful discourse about genetic selection against high IQ and dropping IQs
00:03:32.820 in general, because it is such a charged topic,
00:03:35.620 and our concerns around demographic collapse stand regardless of this scenario's potential.
00:03:41.120 We only approach this philosophical third rail in order to dispel some common misconception.
00:03:46.480 IQ has a high level of genetic correlation and can be predicted by looking at a person's genome.
00:03:52.480 So I have a citation here. If you want to go through all of these citations,
00:03:56.580 I'll just mention when I run across the citation, just get the book.
00:04:00.240 It's like a dollar on Amazon, and it'll have all the citations listed.
00:04:03.120 This is in the appendix.
00:04:04.060 The association between genetics and IQ is not small.
00:04:07.120 In fact, this meta-study argues the IQ correlation between adopted brothers and sisters,
00:04:12.760 genetically unrelated people raised together, falls almost to zero in adulthood.
00:04:17.240 Again, another citation.
00:04:19.580 Note, we think this meta-study might be overstating the correlation a little.
00:04:23.760 Suffice it to say that there is very little argument in the scientific community over whether
00:04:28.840 there is some genetic correlation in IQ.
00:04:31.300 They debate things like how big that correlation is, whether that link is concentrated in specific
00:04:37.380 ethnicities, which we spend an entire chapter of this book arguing against, whether IQ is a
00:04:43.080 measure of what we mean when we talk about intelligence in the vernacular, a topic we
00:04:47.780 won't go into here, do your own research, and whether the genes associated with IQ are stable
00:04:52.860 in the population or declining, which we will focus on in this chapter.
00:04:56.640 For those who are not up to date with what is an quote-unquote offensive position in the
00:05:01.860 scientific consensus, we encourage you to read the Wikipedia page on this subject.
00:05:06.140 So the point that I'm making here is it is so commonly accepted that IQ is a genetic
00:05:10.860 thing that there is a Wikipedia page on this topic, or at least there was when I wrote the
00:05:15.220 book.
00:05:15.460 Who knows?
00:05:15.800 It could have been scrubbed by lefties by now.
00:05:17.760 But we're pretty sure the people who turn a blind eye to the role genetics plays in
00:05:21.300 privilege will be held in the same regard as those who claim they, quote-unquote, didn't
00:05:25.860 see race in the 1990s.
00:05:27.720 Acting as though none of your partially inherited traits gave you systemic advantages over others,
00:05:32.480 be they height, metabolism, attractiveness, or IQ, only serves to reinforce your unearned
00:05:38.140 privilege, and ultimately breeds more systemic inequality.
00:05:41.580 To be extremely clear, we refer to these two instances in relation to each other because
00:05:45.940 each represents an assumed moral high ground through feigned blindness to systemic advantages
00:05:51.080 one has over others.
00:05:52.360 We are not suggesting that any of these things are linked to race.
00:05:56.480 Multiple studies have demonstrated that IQ is dropping by about 0.2 points annually in
00:06:01.240 some regions.
00:06:02.200 Oh, you see, it's been held up by more recent research.
00:06:04.340 Though, the U.S. seems more resistant to this than other nations.
00:06:08.600 This may seem like a trivial decline, but when you consider the standard deviation of IQ
00:06:13.160 is 15 points, such a decline, if sustained, will lead to a drop by one standard deviation
00:06:18.740 every 75 years.
00:06:20.760 Should this trend hold in those regions, in just 125 years, your average human will have
00:06:26.380 an IQ that would, today, qualify someone as intellectually disabled.
00:06:30.680 Note, while our timelines are probably off, it is highly unlikely that we are wrong about
00:06:36.720 the general trend.
00:06:38.100 Quote, so here I'm pretending to be one of our detractors, but IQ is not a good measure
00:06:44.880 of intelligence.
00:06:46.320 We, too, find it tedious and often misleading to focus so heavily on IQ.
00:06:51.440 That said, while there is plenty of research separating out IQ from intelligence, we are the last people
00:06:57.340 to pedestalize it, carrying far more about initiative and willpower.
00:07:02.060 IQ does correlate with very common standards of achievement.
00:07:05.740 If all the outcomes with which IQ correlates began to plummet, we seriously would be worried,
00:07:11.200 and we think you would, too.
00:07:12.680 To anyone who wants to try to argue that this is not a thing that's happening, especially
00:07:17.840 we're not arguing about the speed that it's happening, you have to argue one of two, frankly,
00:07:23.340 completely unwinnable positions.
00:07:25.780 Either that there isn't evidence that IQ is correlated with genetics, which it just
00:07:30.440 super, super, super obviously is, and it's probably one of the most robust findings in
00:07:36.100 all of genetic science.
00:07:37.820 Actually, I saw one paper claiming that it was the single most robust finding in all of genetic
00:07:41.280 science.
00:07:41.700 Or, two, argue that people with lower IQs aren't having more kids than people with higher IQs.
00:07:48.880 Again, I cannot imagine how anyone could conceivably argue this looking at any source of data in
00:07:56.920 the world.
00:07:58.080 But people will try to say this, and they'll try to say it because it allows them to, one,
00:08:05.400 not take responsibility for their unearned privilege, and two, because it allows them to maintain
00:08:12.240 a world framework which is not correlated with reality.
00:08:16.360 Some papers have argued that this decline in IQ is purely environmental.
00:08:21.480 These arguments fall flat when combined with orthogonal source of evidence.
00:08:25.960 In his paper, Natural Selection May Be Making Society More Unequal, David Hugh Jones wrote,
00:08:31.400 quote,
00:08:31.640 We found that 23 out of 33 polygenic scores were significantly linked to a person having more
00:08:38.240 or fewer children over their lifetime, dot, dot, dot.
00:08:41.920 Scores which correlated with lower earnings in education predicted having more children.
00:08:46.360 Meaning those scores are being selected for, from an evolutionary perspective.
00:08:51.900 Scores which correlated with higher earnings in education predicted having fewer children.
00:08:57.620 Meaning that they are being selected against, end quote.
00:09:00.980 This study even shows the polygenic scores correlated with higher earnings in education decreasing
00:09:06.140 within a population over time.
00:09:07.780 This means it is measurable that genes which correlate with high IQ are appearing at lower frequencies
00:09:13.720 in the population over time, and genes correlating with a high IQ are correlated with lower fertility
00:09:19.780 rates.
00:09:20.820 So this, and I'm not quoting the book anymore, this directly connects with demographic collapse.
00:09:26.560 And when we talk about shifting populations resulting from shifting fertility rates, what we're saying
00:09:33.480 is that this, we have a lower educational attainment, lower earning future ahead of us based on these
00:09:40.720 trends, right?
00:09:42.380 So more from the book.
00:09:44.280 Imagine you are trying to determine the maximum speed of a car.
00:09:47.260 One person makes this determination by looking at the engine and running calculations.
00:09:51.940 This is analogous to the study of looking at how genes that correlate with IQ also correlate
00:09:56.240 with birth rate.
00:09:57.520 Another person makes this calculation by getting in the car and flooring the accelerator pedal.
00:10:02.600 This is analogous to the various studies measuring declines in IQ at the population level.
00:10:08.280 If the max speed each group independently determines is close, you can be fairly confident in its
00:10:13.800 accuracy.
00:10:15.020 This is what we see above, meaning we're probably experiencing a meaningful decline in genes associated
00:10:20.140 with high IQ that is likely to be sustained in the future.
00:10:24.200 So this is a really important point for people because a lot of people look at this decline in IQ
00:10:30.240 and they're like, well, you know, okay, it's, it's going down the IQ of people in college
00:10:36.700 or the IQ of the general population.
00:10:37.880 This could be due to something else, right?
00:10:40.640 Like there's all these ways that maybe the way we're testing IQ is a bit different over
00:10:44.060 time or something like that.
00:10:44.980 But the problem is, is that this decline aligns with the predicted decline we would see from
00:10:53.780 the fact that the people with the polygenic scores that we associate with high IQ are also
00:11:01.700 having fewer kids.
00:11:03.880 And I should note something else that was pointed out about above paragraph where people are like,
00:11:07.500 why are you guys focused so much on IQ?
00:11:09.300 It's like, you don't need to focus just on IQ.
00:11:11.320 If you, for example, focus on the polygenic score associated with making a lot of money,
00:11:15.800 that also predicts low fertility.
00:11:18.620 That also, and when we say predicts low fertility, what we're really saying is that is
00:11:22.260 disadvantageous from a natural selection standpoint within a modern environment, meaning it's being
00:11:28.680 selected out of the general human gene pool.
00:11:31.540 But not only do you have these studies, it's actually more accurate because there's a separate
00:11:36.440 study that I might not have put in the book that looked at the polygenic scores that are
00:11:41.020 associated with high IQ over time within genome databases.
00:11:45.480 Because, you know, we've been collecting full genomes for a while now, like 10, 20 years at
00:11:50.320 this point.
00:11:50.980 And we can look at the frequency of specific genetic sequences over time.
00:11:55.640 And the frequency in the developed world, at least, that we are seeing these high IQ predicting
00:12:03.440 polygenic scores occurring in the population is decreasing at the rate you would predict
00:12:09.560 it to be decreasing if we really were seeing the 0.2 point decrease over time.
00:12:13.960 But about this sustained into the future thing, part of me, I mean, so when we look at demographic
00:12:22.740 collapse, we're also looking at populations getting lumpy and siloed and kind of walling
00:12:27.100 themselves off.
00:12:28.500 Part of me, because of the growth of AI, is a little bit less concerned about this than
00:12:33.760 I used to be, because I feel like the number of people we need who are quite smart is now
00:12:41.340 reduced due to the existence of AI.
00:12:44.080 And if you have a sufficient number, like minimum critical mass of people super humanly boosted
00:12:52.140 by the resources of AI, which we've recently discovered can even really augment creativity,
00:12:58.080 scientific or artistic, et cetera, that maybe we'll be okay.
00:13:02.420 What are your thoughts on that?
00:13:05.360 Was dropping IQs?
00:13:06.620 No.
00:13:07.360 No?
00:13:08.300 No.
00:13:08.920 No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
00:13:09.880 These people cannot use a, like, so one of the things that I've become increasingly aware
00:13:16.280 of given the direction that AI development has gone, and we'll have another episode where
00:13:20.320 we focus on this because we actually bought exclusive rights to a theme song for the show.
00:13:24.700 And the theme song was made in part due to AI.
00:13:32.420 The really great AI art and stories are coming from people who in the past would have been
00:13:59.920 artists or writers or something like that.
00:14:02.600 Yeah.
00:14:02.940 They, the AI is very useful at augmenting an individual's personal genius.
00:14:11.300 Yes.
00:14:11.460 And that's where you get the really, really high quality stuff.
00:14:14.920 Like when I get the AI songs that are of the quality of a professional musician, these
00:14:19.920 aren't necessarily the songs that the AI is just spitting out, right?
00:14:23.520 They are the songs that have been mediated by somebody who has a unique talent for this sort
00:14:27.500 of stuff.
00:14:28.260 Yeah.
00:14:28.500 They just allow that individual to create a lot more really high quality music a lot
00:14:34.680 faster.
00:14:35.280 Right.
00:14:35.720 But so let's just say if we have very, very few geniuses in the future, is that so much
00:14:42.500 of a problem when the output of those geniuses can be 10X'd by AI?
00:14:46.400 Oh, that's a good point.
00:14:47.580 I mean, that's my point.
00:14:49.180 Yeah.
00:14:49.400 Well, the problem is, is that we live in democracies and the, these people are going like the dumb
00:14:56.160 ones are going to be more and more of the general population as time goes on.
00:15:00.740 Yeah.
00:15:01.260 And, and, and, and so they will be electing and building bureaucracies that make it harder
00:15:08.140 and harder for the geniuses to do their jobs.
00:15:10.660 And I guess that also break in a road society in general.
00:15:15.180 We also need to consider the geopolitics of how a declining number of competent, productive
00:15:22.500 individuals impacts the solutions that countries are going to have access to when demographic
00:15:28.260 collapse really hits.
00:15:29.480 We had some reporters from the Wall Street Journal over at our house yesterday, and we
00:15:34.420 were talking with them about how, one, if you look at like the United States, if you look
00:15:39.780 at the low income earners in the United States, it was something like 80% of them are living
00:15:45.100 paycheck to paycheck, and yet most of their life is covered by social services, most of
00:15:50.640 the, the food that they eat or their housing, et cetera.
00:15:53.780 And when that social service disappears, these people are genuinely effed.
00:15:59.580 Now, the problem here becomes as demographic collapse gets worse, it is hurting the more productive
00:16:06.520 populations, economically speaking, i.e. the people who are paying more taxes, more than
00:16:12.200 it's hurting the populations that are taking taxes.
00:16:16.480 Now, this becomes a uniquely big problem in the face of AI empowering these productive individuals
00:16:23.540 because it means that these productive individuals no longer have the same geographic ties that they
00:16:30.360 would have had in a historic context.
00:16:32.800 By that, what I mean is, you know, both Simone and I do work in venture capital.
00:16:35.680 For example, when you look at the venture capital deals that are being done in Silicon
00:16:39.640 Valley these days, what everyone will tell you, it's like two guys in the United States,
00:16:44.060 maybe 20 people in the Philippines, and then just tons of AIs.
00:16:47.960 It is not like it used to be with Google or something like that, where you could get these
00:16:52.260 giant companies that can't easily pick up and leave.
00:16:55.580 If you think that you can make up for the rapid decrease in the number of productive people
00:17:02.840 by taxing the few that are left more, these people will just pick up and leave.
00:17:10.300 They'll either go to another country, or if no other stable democracies exist, they'll go
00:17:15.820 to a charter city, which are increasingly being opened up, which allow them to not have to pay
00:17:21.060 into these large socialized systems, which means that millions of people are going to starve,
00:17:29.620 or old people are going to die.
00:17:31.820 I mean, the scale of the human tragedy that is going to happen, because people are not being
00:17:38.780 realistic about the fact that not all humans, even when you control for their childhood,
00:17:43.580 are born with the same opportunities due to genetic differences in terms of how we perceive the world,
00:17:49.700 or relate to AI, or relate to whatever, right?
00:17:53.120 It's going to be catastrophic.
00:17:54.480 It's going to be catastrophic at the scale, or likely bigger than the scale, of something
00:18:00.080 like the Great Leap Forward in China, which, depending on the stats you're looking at, more
00:18:04.820 people died in that five-year period trying to move their economy forwards than died during
00:18:09.160 the entire American slave trade.
00:18:11.180 Just because something had good intentions doesn't mean people won't die.
00:18:16.560 It doesn't mean you don't bear moral culpability for ignoring it when people told you, hey,
00:18:23.460 you really need to pay attention to the fact that not all humans are born equally competent.
00:18:28.980 Yeah.
00:18:29.480 Also, I should note for people who are like, IQ doesn't matter, and you shouldn't look at
00:18:34.420 it.
00:18:34.900 We have another video that goes really strong on the core arguments against that, that
00:18:38.840 were done by Nazeep Talid or something like that.
00:18:41.220 I can't remember who it was.
00:18:42.180 Oh, yeah.
00:18:43.520 But basically, the people who argue this are lying to you.
00:18:46.980 In a way where I don't know if they're intelligent and have engaged with the data, I don't think
00:18:53.620 they believe what they're saying, really.
00:18:55.760 Because you can look at their own arguments, and they're structured like arguments.
00:19:00.140 And this is the point that we were making in the last episode that we did on this particular
00:19:03.160 thing ages ago, that the way that the arguments are structured, it's structured like the person
00:19:09.680 who's getting it knows that they're lying to the audience, but is trying to figure out
00:19:13.480 how to take the PC perspective, not by somebody who's genuinely been confused by the data.
00:19:19.060 Because it's like, they'll be like, well, it only really matters when you get to really
00:19:24.020 low IQs and stuff like that.
00:19:25.820 And it's like, yeah, but that's where the whole world's going to be in 100 years.
00:19:29.140 Right?
00:19:29.800 And that's what really gets me, that the average person in the developed world within
00:19:34.020 125 years that's born is going to be what today would be categorized as mentally disabled.
00:19:39.920 That is not like a small problem.
00:19:42.640 Right.
00:19:43.100 Well, hold on, though.
00:19:44.620 I do think that things are a little bit clouded.
00:19:47.560 I was listening this morning to a YouTube video on the evil history of eugenics, and it
00:19:52.960 was talking about all these different IQ surveys and bits of research that had taken place.
00:19:58.300 And based on contemporary definitions of basic intelligence, something like 45% of people
00:20:05.960 coming through Ellis Island were seen as having the intelligence of a five-year-old or below,
00:20:11.600 et cetera, et cetera.
00:20:12.420 And yet, these are people who had figured out from positions of quite meager means, we'll
00:20:19.440 say, how to get across an ocean to America.
00:20:23.980 You know, like, these are people with hustle.
00:20:26.760 They're people that we might define as-
00:20:27.920 Well, I challenge you.
00:20:28.740 I would say these were people who came from an environment that were incredibly low-nutrition
00:20:33.120 environments.
00:20:33.640 They grew up starving.
00:20:35.160 I would not be surprised, given the amount of lead that was used in products back then,
00:20:39.780 given the amount of starvation that would have happened back in.
00:20:42.580 Yeah.
00:20:43.640 Actually, half the people going through Ellis Island did have the intelligence of a five-year-old.
00:20:47.260 And that may be.
00:20:48.240 And so another one of the arguments that I want to present is throughout the vast majority
00:20:52.360 of human history, due to nutritional constraints, due to immense poverty, pervasive poverty, and
00:20:58.900 or just a very small class that was given the resources to even just be literate, that we,
00:21:06.140 for a very, very long time, have gotten by on an extremely small percentage.
00:21:10.720 I think the most interesting element of this, to me, is what's different now and why is
00:21:15.920 this risky now?
00:21:16.860 And perhaps the biggest issue here is that in the past, those who counted as intelligent
00:21:21.820 by contemporary measures were the ones who ruled society and built the things and decided
00:21:28.360 how things were going to work.
00:21:29.820 Whereas now, society is going to be run by, to a certain extent, the lowest or most mediocre
00:21:36.180 common denominator, which means that either what's very urgent, if the reverse of, I mean,
00:21:42.100 basically given that the reverse effect, reverse Flynn effect is real, is we have to automate
00:21:47.620 and eliminate as much of government as possible so that there is as little deep state as possible
00:21:53.840 because every person working in government is going to increasingly become a liability as
00:22:00.260 the average person becomes dumber, essentially.
00:22:03.740 And then, does that make sense to you?
00:22:05.400 But what you're missing here, and this is the point I was going to make, is you're not
00:22:09.980 taking into account the effect that a decreasing average has on long tails.
00:22:16.540 So, what's really not being taken into account here is-
00:22:19.960 Right, that whole saying of like, have you met the average person?
00:22:23.040 Well, half are dumber than that.
00:22:24.420 So, the point you're making-
00:22:25.320 No, that's not the point I'm making.
00:22:26.380 Okay.
00:22:26.720 Are you familiar with what I mean by long tails?
00:22:29.600 I think so, but you're probably going to expand on it.
00:22:32.720 I'm not really sure where you're going with this.
00:22:34.440 I'm assuming you're saying that just this means that the dumbest people are going to
00:22:38.060 be very dangerous.
00:22:39.300 No, it doesn't mean that.
00:22:40.820 So, suppose you had two populations, right?
00:22:43.520 And one population had an average IQ that was five points above the other population.
00:22:48.180 Okay?
00:22:48.440 If you then, in that society, find the top 1% of people, right?
00:22:55.380 90% of that top 1% are going to be from the population that's just five IQ points higher
00:23:02.460 than the other population if those two groups are equal numbered in society.
00:23:06.820 It's the mass of long tail distributions.
00:23:10.100 When you have a move in the middle, it disproportionately affects the long tail.
00:23:17.120 So, if you have a move five points or 10 points down in the middle, that's going to vastly, vastly,
00:23:26.300 vastly decrease the number of geniuses that are being born.
00:23:29.340 Much more than you would expect from just like, say, a 30 or 40% decrease in general intelligence.
00:23:35.980 It would cause the level of like genius level today, people being born to drop by like 98%,
00:23:42.240 99%.
00:23:43.460 Do you think that's really going to happen when a portion of the population that values
00:23:51.480 intelligence and begins using polygenic risk score selection, not just because they're
00:23:56.600 obsessed with intelligence, but because more and more people are going to be forced to use
00:24:00.960 IVF and PGDP polygenic risk score selection is going to become just more common practice.
00:24:05.980 That people will sort of by accident select for intelligence, even if they don't value it,
00:24:10.740 that this population of people delaying fertility, using IVF, and then inadvertently selecting
00:24:16.500 for intelligence is going to create more super geniuses.
00:24:21.120 I mean, we have the Kwisat Khadarak of our family, right?
00:24:24.580 And like, they're what, in like the top 99.8% of intelligence.
00:24:29.600 I think we're going to see more of those children being born as people select for them.
00:24:36.040 So I think that what is going to happen in the future, so if I'm like actually trying
00:24:40.740 to predict the most likely scenario in the future, this plays into that scenario, but
00:24:45.180 doing polygenic selection to increase the IQ of your kids, given how quickly polygenic
00:24:50.520 scores are decreasing, isn't actually going to protect your family line that much, unless
00:24:57.380 your family line is genetically isolating itself from the general population.
00:25:01.400 Right, because you've got reversion to the mean, and in the end, you shouldn't be dating
00:25:04.540 someone because they themselves are smart, but because their entire family is smart.
00:25:08.660 Yeah.
00:25:09.180 Like on first date, you should be asking like, so what did your grandfather do?
00:25:13.500 Yeah, what did your parents do?
00:25:15.600 I like this point because people often go to you and they'll be like, well, your wife is
00:25:19.420 smart, but aren't you afraid of reversion to the mean?
00:25:21.900 And I'm like, yeah, that's why I checked that she was from a smart family, because the mean
00:25:25.620 is high, because you're not reverting to, like we often talk about reversion to the mean
00:25:30.220 as being like to the population mean, but functionally what's happening in reversion to
00:25:34.700 the mean is you're reverting to the mean of your individual families and ancestors.
00:25:39.880 Yeah.
00:25:40.020 And so if that mean is high and you are genius or intelligent due to some random mutation,
00:25:46.960 that random mutation isn't going to occur in your kids at a high level, so they're not
00:25:50.800 going to get, you know, your unique intelligence.
00:25:52.500 However, I'm not smart because I'm like a mutant.
00:25:55.960 I'm smart because like my brother is a genius and my parents are geniuses.
00:26:01.460 And what's quite interesting is this actually shows up in the polygenic scores related to
00:26:05.700 intelligence of our embryos.
00:26:07.660 So there is only one embryo of all of our embryos for which we have polygenic scores that is either
00:26:17.340 at the exact average for the population or like two or 3% below average.
00:26:26.220 So the, the vast majority of our embryos are clustered like a third to halfway in between like
00:26:37.720 the 95% range and the mean.
00:26:41.880 So all kind of above average.
00:26:43.800 So you can really see like there's this clustering and you see this with almost all polygenic
00:26:47.340 risk scores.
00:26:48.420 If you get any, like you look at polygenic risk scores of your embryos for something like
00:26:52.580 gum disease or for schizophrenia or for depression, you're not actually, you might see one outlier
00:26:59.260 here or there, but for the most part, you are just going to see them all kind of clustered.
00:27:03.780 So for some of our kids, they just have equally shitty outcomes around certain things like acne.
00:27:09.120 For example, we're all going to have a bunch of pizza faced kids because that's just our genetic
00:27:13.880 heritage.
00:27:14.400 You were pizza faced and I was pizza faced.
00:27:16.780 So we're going to have pizza faced kids and our grandparents probably were pizza faced too.
00:27:21.320 Yeah.
00:27:21.520 So we have, what was I going to say?
00:27:23.720 So yeah, what's actually going to happen?
00:27:26.360 Do I think that some populations are going to begin to genetically isolate themselves as
00:27:30.380 the general population really isn't doing anything about this?
00:27:33.440 Yes, I do think they're going to.
00:27:35.320 Another thing to remember from a historic standpoint, and we mentioned this in another video,
00:27:39.220 but it's good to come back to is the effect that current child support laws have on out
00:27:46.160 group breeding, which is to say that historically you would have some individuals develop or some
00:27:52.000 families develop genes that were more associated with success in that society, i.e. earning lots
00:27:58.380 of money, building up lots of power.
00:28:00.360 But then these individuals would, when they were male, impregnate lots of women who they
00:28:05.520 weren't married to, which we can also see from the data.
00:28:08.580 Fidelity historically was really common.
00:28:11.260 And through that, like a guy might rise up to a local lord, but he'd impregnate a bunch of
00:28:16.220 peasants.
00:28:16.640 And so you never really got that much of a differentiation between the competent people
00:28:21.520 and the incompetent people.
00:28:23.160 That has changed recently, specifically due to child support laws, because now when a person
00:28:30.060 is super wealthy, when a male is super wealthy or successful in some other means, they are
00:28:34.520 going to be very wary about getting a woman pregnant who they don't see as their equal
00:28:39.700 or someone they want to spend their entire life with.
00:28:41.700 Because they're going to be on the hook to pay for any children they have with them.
00:28:45.460 Yeah, which is hugely dysgenic because that means that individuals who, like a man who is
00:28:51.020 not successful, who doesn't have much money, there actually isn't really that much of a
00:28:55.580 cost to him in getting a bunch of women pregnant.
00:28:57.800 So if I'm the type of guy who's in and out of pregnant, in and out of prison, tons of debt,
00:29:03.080 no wealth, can't really hold a job, there's no reason for me not to knock up a bunch of
00:29:07.640 girls.
00:29:07.800 Yeah, they're not even wages to be garnished.
00:29:10.040 Yeah, there's not even wages to be garnished.
00:29:11.580 And that's why you see the people who are knocking up lots of people and having a lot of
00:29:15.440 children out of wedlock are the people who don't have a lot to lose, really.
00:29:20.080 And that's hugely dysgenic in its effects.
00:29:23.220 But the larger point being to all of this, when people are like, we can just keep doing
00:29:29.200 what we're doing, genetically speaking, without polygenic selection, without gene editing,
00:29:34.580 you really can't.
00:29:36.320 And if you're in a community that is not ruthlessly selecting for the intelligence of your children's
00:29:42.400 mates and building a culture that does that, in the future, you're just not going to be
00:29:48.420 one of the few groups on earth that end up mattering.
00:29:51.180 And even we can't engender that within our kids in terms of their mates.
00:29:54.960 You know, don't pay attention to how attractive they are.
00:29:57.860 Look only at work ethic, ambition, IQ, you know, stuff like this.
00:30:03.200 And then eventually, given the direction of the general population, you know, when you're
00:30:09.260 talking about a two standard deviation decrease in the next hundred years, the only way some
00:30:14.920 part of our current civilization ends up surviving is if some population does genetically isolate
00:30:22.300 themselves.
00:30:23.180 Gosh, this is reminding me.
00:30:24.220 I've been reading this book called Red Rising, which if you have Audible right now, it's presently
00:30:29.320 available for free if you have an Audible subscription, which is why I'm listening to it.
00:30:33.380 But it was also recommended to us.
00:30:34.440 It's the one I described to you where it has these striations in population.
00:30:38.800 There are the golds, there are the pinks and purples and coppers and silvers and reds.
00:30:44.320 But the golds are at the very top of society and they rule.
00:30:47.720 Humanity is an intergalactic empire.
00:30:49.500 And they are brutally eugenic to the extent that in their top leadership academies, there
00:30:58.160 are literal, not battle royales.
00:31:00.820 It's not like only one will be left, but they definitely have quotas of people that are totally
00:31:06.940 permitted to be died.
00:31:07.940 Like, you know, 10% of the student population is going to die.
00:31:10.880 And that's a good thing because you want the weak ones to die.
00:31:13.100 And they are therefore taller and bigger and they look different.
00:31:18.840 They're incredibly smart.
00:31:19.960 They're incredibly agile.
00:31:21.520 Their bones are stronger.
00:31:23.800 And it, yeah.
00:31:25.440 Is that what you're saying we need?
00:31:27.520 Do we need the golds of red rising?
00:31:29.760 I'm saying that people can be like, well, we can, there isn't a way basically to keep
00:31:35.480 the IQ stable with the selective pressures that are created by modernity.
00:31:40.100 So you have two options, right?
00:31:41.860 Either you're in one of the groups that's striving to increase your IQ, ambition, other
00:31:47.500 genetically correlated traits, or you're not paying attention to this in terms of your
00:31:51.900 groups of breeding practices, and you are in a downwards and rapidly downward spiral to
00:31:58.400 cultural irrelevance.
00:32:00.240 And it's an important thing to note as well.
00:32:02.540 When we talk about the correlatories to IQ, a lot of people assume IQ is just how smart
00:32:09.020 you are.
00:32:09.440 But like, what, what are things that are really correlated with IQ?
00:32:12.940 How likely you are to grape someone?
00:32:15.360 People with low IQs are much more likely to grape someone than people with high IQs.
00:32:19.900 Well, even health outcomes.
00:32:21.080 How likely to go to murder you?
00:32:21.560 Health outcomes.
00:32:22.740 Are correlated with IQ.
00:32:25.100 Yeah.
00:32:25.340 So is somebody going to rob you?
00:32:27.940 Is somebody going to murder you?
00:32:29.120 General prosociality is correlated with IQ.
00:32:31.900 So just broadly, being a nice person, helping other people out, contributing to society,
00:32:37.940 being healthy, all of these things correlate positively with IQ.
00:32:41.980 Which is why I implied earlier that if people do polygenic risk or selection with their embryos,
00:32:46.700 and they're only looking at things like being kind, having a sense of humor, or being healthy,
00:32:52.220 they're going to inadvertently select for IQ.
00:32:55.360 But something that you point out, yeah, sure, you can, you can focus on this or you cannot
00:32:59.120 in terms of your family's breeding practices or whatever.
00:33:02.340 But I think the bigger issue is either, like I said, you have to figure out how to streamline
00:33:08.300 government as much as possible to avoid the human liability problem as people get on average
00:33:13.240 less intelligent, or we need to really double down among those communities that are maintaining
00:33:19.120 high IQs with this city-state concept whereby people are just going to their walled off gardens.
00:33:25.260 And well, you can have city-states in terms of, what's that term that everybody likes to
00:33:30.300 use now, the network state, you can have network state marriage markets and stuff like that,
00:33:35.260 right?
00:33:35.460 Which is what we're trying to do.
00:33:36.440 Yeah, but if you're still being governed by a nation that is increasingly inept and dangerous,
00:33:43.680 then you are at risk.
00:33:46.740 Well, and this is why I predict that city-states are the future.
00:33:49.480 Yeah.
00:33:50.180 As it becomes clearer that there are some subpopulations that through AI, as you pointed out,
00:33:54.640 are going to be even more efficacious than they would be in today's world, and that we'll
00:33:59.580 have a dramatically higher IQ than the general population.
00:34:03.620 But also that government, which is increasingly deep state-driven and still very much human-run,
00:34:09.780 becomes increasingly dumber, which can you imagine government getting dumber than it is
00:34:14.800 now?
00:34:16.940 That's scary.
00:34:18.660 You have to be...
00:34:19.600 It's not just about having the 10x power or more of AI.
00:34:23.060 It's about being pushed away from quite a liability of governance.
00:34:28.660 I think you're absolutely right.
00:34:30.700 Well, any final thoughts on this, Simone?
00:34:33.980 Yikes.
00:34:34.960 But also, you say that people with low IQ are moving in the direction of cultural irrelevance,
00:34:42.020 whereas I think that that is not true.
00:34:43.960 And I would expect something a little bit closer to idiocracy, where that is the pervasive culture.
00:34:48.840 And it's huge, and it's big, and it's everywhere, and it's loud, and it's amusing.
00:34:53.980 I think closer than idiocracy is removing to WALL-E, you know, with the AIs and everything
00:35:00.200 like that, that are basically making all the decisions for these.
00:35:03.520 But unlike WALL-E, the people won't just be...
00:35:05.980 Because the other thing that's really correlated with high fertility rates, people might be
00:35:09.440 surprised by this, are the polygenic scores.
00:35:11.880 The single most correlated with fertility rate of all the polygenic scores a person has
00:35:15.520 is the one that is actually meant for correlating with IQ.
00:35:19.420 But the second one in a study that was looking at this is the one that's correlated with obesity.
00:35:23.420 Just fat negative podcast.
00:35:25.800 Well, I guess Zimpik exists today, so maybe that won't be an issue.
00:35:28.820 It'll be some sort of weird, sad form of, I don't know, hedonism, whatever.
00:35:37.160 But yeah, I don't think it'll be exactly like idiocracy, because I think that AI does sort
00:35:40.780 of prevent a true idiocracy future.
00:35:43.340 But the question is, what the general pop...
00:35:46.240 It's not a question.
00:35:47.040 The general pop's IQ is decreasing rapidly, way more rapidly than people think.
00:35:52.020 The one standard deviation in 75 years is shockingly fast.
00:35:56.500 And that you see this across all measures and pretty much everywhere you look.
00:36:00.720 And it is so interesting to me that the powers that be are just pretending like it's not happening.
00:36:06.040 Oh, I suppose the question is, what do you do about that?
00:36:11.380 I think people just have to support human dignity and respect that maybe intelligence...
00:36:20.760 Listen, in the end, the thing that deserves whatever is the thing that takes it.
00:36:26.740 And if obesity and lower educational attainment are what manage to inherit the future genetically,
00:36:35.240 then power to the people.
00:36:37.340 You know, that's what earns it.
00:36:39.820 Intelligence clearly isn't everything.
00:36:42.260 And a big theme that we've seen in low fertility rates is people being so far up their asses in
00:36:48.260 terms of thought.
00:36:49.100 And we're probably going to do a separate episode on this, but people overanalyzing things and
00:36:54.680 overthinking things without having enough of an emphasis on action in their lives,
00:36:58.600 really just not having kids, also not doing anything with their careers, not doing anything
00:37:02.420 with life.
00:37:03.180 In fact, I argue that there is an immense portion of the quote-unquote intelligent population
00:37:08.460 that contributes probably less to society than significantly less intelligent.
00:37:14.240 And we're talking quite below average people in this world.
00:37:16.880 Because they spend all of their time strategizing and writing and managing and analyzing and
00:37:23.080 doing absolutely fuck all.
00:37:25.100 And it makes me so fucking mad.
00:37:27.260 So maybe in the end, IQ isn't all you make it out to be.
00:37:31.680 Maybe in the end, only the small number of people who are both intelligent and action-oriented,
00:37:37.040 like Elon Musk, who can both think and do things, which is quite unusual, are the ones
00:37:42.120 who matter.
00:37:42.720 And a lot of the people, even God bless you all, but people who listen to this podcast,
00:37:46.880 who are very smart, but aren't doing anything with their lives, don't matter.
00:37:51.080 In fact, matter less than the obese, high school-educated person who's having a ton of kids.
00:37:56.760 So if you want to be among the elect, dear Based Camp listener, I hope that you are actually
00:38:02.680 doing something with your life and actually having kids.
00:38:05.540 Because you may be among the entire reason why IQ is disappearing.
00:38:09.360 Because you guys can't keep your fucking acts together.
00:38:12.080 The end.
00:38:13.080 Thank you and I love you very much, Malcolm.
00:38:14.840 You're the best.
00:38:15.520 I love you too, Sylvain.
00:38:18.120 Unrelated to today's discussion, because I didn't even know we were talking about this,
00:38:21.780 I was looking up quotes from Idiocracy.
00:38:25.640 Can't believe you like money too.
00:38:27.980 We should hang out.
00:38:29.480 Totally.
00:38:29.880 Because I was looking for fun things that we could use in a Base Camp intro.
00:38:33.660 And I'm reading these and I'm thinking, these are just things that we say around the house.
00:38:39.000 Not what the protagonist says, just what people from the future idiot world say.
00:38:45.220 Like what?
00:38:46.040 Like water.
00:38:47.660 Like out of a toilet.
00:38:48.820 But I mean, who drinks water when you have Diet Coke?
00:39:04.280 I was just looking for some regular water.
00:39:07.220 Water?
00:39:07.940 Yeah.
00:39:08.600 You mean like in the toilet?
00:39:10.180 What for?
00:39:12.100 Just to drink.
00:39:18.820 No, there are so many great lines in it though, but also, I don't, I think it's interesting
00:39:27.880 that a lot of what's considered to be the epitome of dumb comments in Idiocracy are actually
00:39:34.680 super-based comments that I would consider to be dumb.
00:39:38.940 I mean, yeah, obviously there's a lot, like watering fields with the equivalent of Gatorade
00:39:43.380 isn't exactly smart.
00:39:44.440 I was just going through Idiocracy clips and this scene reminds me so much of what I am
00:39:52.000 trying to talk to brainwashed ultra-progressives.
00:39:55.720 So when you're watching this scene, replace Brondo with DEI and Electrolytes with Equality
00:40:03.020 and this is me like talking to my friends who are higher-ups at Disney or whatever.
00:40:08.380 It is insane, these conversations that I have.
00:40:11.080 For the last time, I'm pretty sure what's killing the crops is this Brondo stuff.
00:40:17.040 But Brondo's got what plants crave.
00:40:18.740 It's got electrolytes.
00:40:20.000 So wait a minute.
00:40:21.040 What you're saying is that you want us to put water on the crops?
00:40:26.100 Yes.
00:40:26.880 Water.
00:40:27.980 Like out the toilet?
00:40:29.240 Well, I mean, it doesn't have to be out of the toilet, but yeah, that's the idea.
00:40:33.100 But Brondo's got what plants crave.
00:40:35.100 It's got electrolytes.
00:40:36.440 Now, I'm no botanist, but I do know that if you put water on plants, they grow.
00:40:41.360 Well, I've never seen no plants grow out of no toilet.
00:40:45.040 Hey, that's good.
00:40:45.980 You sure you ain't the smartest guy in the world?
00:40:47.460 Yeah.
00:40:49.100 Okay, look, you want to solve this problem, so why don't we just try it, okay?
00:40:53.820 And not worry about what plants crave.
00:40:56.780 Brondo's got what plants crave.
00:40:58.880 Yeah, it's got electrolytes.
00:41:00.740 What are electrolytes?
00:41:02.400 Do you even know?
00:41:03.500 It's what they use to make Brondo.
00:41:06.440 Yeah, but why did they use them to make Brondo?
00:41:09.720 Because Brondo's got electrolytes.
00:41:14.840 But do you know why there is Diet Coke and Coke Zero as two separate products?
00:41:24.200 I feel like I knew this once.
00:41:26.420 Yeah.
00:41:26.660 So Coke Zero came about when they invented a formula that could create a Coke that tasted more like the original Coke.
00:41:35.440 And they decided to use this opportunity to see if they could create a diet product that targeted the male audience instead of the female audience.
00:41:45.800 Because diet soda before that was predominantly consumed by women who were worried about their figure.
00:41:51.540 So they were the ones who were more willing to compromise on flavor to attempt to stay thin, right?
00:41:59.040 Yes, because nothing tastes as good as skinny feels.
00:42:02.460 That is why Coke Zero, it's called Coke Zero instead of like Coke Light or Diet Coke or Diet Coke Blue.
00:42:10.400 Because diet as a word in branding is associated with women, female products.
00:42:16.160 Yeah, you don't want to be a girl.
00:42:17.380 And so they're like, how can we make it male?
00:42:21.140 And so what they did is they were like zero.
00:42:23.800 And then it's like red and black and masculine.
00:42:26.620 Yeah, that's very interesting.
00:42:30.100 It is, yeah, that light has also been considered a sufficiently male term.
00:42:36.360 Now, I've never had campaigns when we've had TVs on while traveling, like in the rooms we've been in, for the new light beer, I think it's Dos Equis Oro, like gold.
00:42:50.120 They're not even trying to put in any indicator of low-caloriness anymore.
00:42:55.500 They're just telling people and advertising that it's a light beer.
00:42:59.200 I just think it's that toxic for men to be seen.
00:43:02.660 And here we have Duff, Duff Light, and our newest flavor, Duff Drime.
00:43:08.600 Oh, here's another fun advertising story.
00:43:12.120 This will be ending the video here, Wiz.
00:43:14.480 It's the story of, and these are things I learned in business school or like around that time.
00:43:19.280 This one I learned in business school.
00:43:20.500 The Diet Coke thing was before business school.
00:43:21.940 This one is the story of Lighthouse and Coors Light.
00:43:27.720 What is Lighthouse a beer?
00:43:30.600 Yes, Lighthouse was a light beer made by the Samuel Adams Brewing Company.
00:43:35.440 And it kept winning every light beer competition, you know, in terms of like taste, right?
00:43:41.040 So it would keep winning all the big taste testing competitions.
00:43:44.720 But it just wasn't selling that well, especially when compared to the top light beer on the market, which was Coors Light.
00:43:49.860 Which, you know, everyone is like, this does not taste like a beer.
00:43:55.340 Like, why is it winning all of these, like in the actual mind of the consumer when we know?
00:44:02.420 Okay, so they then did user testing and they went out to try to find, you know,
00:44:09.780 why was everybody buying Coors Light and not the Lighthouse?
00:44:13.060 And it turned out it was because they were optimizing around completely the wrong problem.
00:44:19.040 What they had been trying to do with Lighthouse was to create a beer that was lower calorie than a normal beer,
00:44:26.660 but tasted as close as possible to a normal beer.
00:44:29.160 Provided the beer experience.
00:44:31.200 But with Coors Light, they didn't want a beer experience?
00:44:34.240 No, what they wanted was something refreshing to drink after a hard day's work.
00:44:38.940 More like a lemonade.
00:44:41.220 They literally wanted beer flavored water.
00:44:43.560 Yeah, they wanted beer flavored water.
00:44:44.660 They wanted masculine water.
00:44:45.900 They wanted masculine water.
00:44:46.660 Yes, they wanted man water.
00:44:48.600 That is what, like, that is honestly what Coors Light is.
00:44:52.160 It is man water.
00:44:54.560 It is.
00:44:55.160 It is.
00:44:55.400 Oh my God.
00:44:59.160 Okay.
00:45:00.860 Oh, mysteries have been solved today.
00:45:04.300 That is what Coors Light is.
00:45:05.640 Correct.
00:45:05.880 With you.
00:45:06.320 thanks.
00:45:06.400 Thank you.
00:45:06.480 Thank you.
00:45:06.500 Thank you.
00:45:07.420 Thanks, everybody.
00:45:23.540 Thanks for joining.
00:45:25.380 Thanks for joining us.
00:45:25.820 It is so interesting.
00:45:26.440 Thanks for joining us today.
00:45:27.840 Thanks.
00:45:28.280 Bye, guys.
00:45:29.940 Bye.
00:45:30.840 Bye,, guys.