Based Camp - Israel Decapitated Iran： A Full Recap

00:00:00.000 In effect, Israel's offensive against Iran achieved what years of Gaza fighting could not. 0.73

00:00:05.680 A broad realignment of Western support behind Israel.

00:00:08.700 Well, what stands out to me is that this is really the solidification of a clear trend, which is the nature of warfare.

00:00:17.860 It's officially changed.

00:00:19.220 What you see, too, is Iran's reaction is extremely old school. 0.77

00:00:22.920 It's we will send our missiles from our war chest and it's.

00:00:27.120 We will get our regional players to attack you, even though they have no technology or real power.

00:00:32.460 And I also say here that to me, the biggest thing that this changes, that the Ukraine situation didn't change, is Iran was operating off of Cold War logic. 0.72

00:00:42.840 It was build up less economically, less technologically developed regional allies.

00:00:49.260 And if you have enough of these, that they will be able to assist you when you go to war.

00:00:54.960 Right.

00:00:55.200 And what Israel is showing is those sorts of allies don't matter one lick.

00:01:01.380 Would you like to know more?

00:01:02.780 Hello, Simone. 0.69

00:01:04.020 Today we are going to be asking the question, why did Israel decide to attack Iran right now?

00:01:13.180 We are going to be looking at this within a few interesting contexts.

00:01:16.960 One is, is when they did this attack, I was certain because of how negative all the Western countries have been on them for the Gaza situation, that they've been generally almost unanimously positive about them, at least at the government level. 0.61

00:01:31.180 Now, I'm not talking about the woke.

00:01:32.220 The woke are going to screech no matter what. 0.99

00:01:33.680 But at the government level, it's been a really surprising degree of like, yeah, just do your thing.

00:01:40.120 We're not going to interrupt, you know, whatever.

00:01:42.080 Especially when the, you know, inciting event was maybe less direct and less visceral.

00:01:49.920 If you're talking about reaching the public.

00:01:51.940 Now, when you're talking about reaching the government and what all their secret services know, they had reason to be like, okay, maybe somebody else needs to handle this.

00:01:58.480 The other thing that we're going to be talking about is what exactly they accomplished with this.

00:02:04.000 We're going to be talking about who they took out, how they took them out, and what was the collateral damage of all this.

00:02:09.640 Because I'm beginning to realize about this channel is that nobody else ever covers things as deeply as we do.

00:02:16.480 Like, I'm always shocked.

00:02:17.900 Like, I cannot find a single, we just yesterday did the Gaza article and I was like, it was on the, the, and I've never.

00:02:23.800 And I learned so much from it on the March on Gaza, March to Gaza.

00:02:27.080 Yes, that was amazing.

00:02:28.020 Like, why, why is it the news?

00:02:29.660 Why is it there's some news source I can go to that'll just have a good summary of everything?

00:02:33.900 But that's where we're going to be going over here.

00:02:35.400 Because, you know, it is important, especially in the context of what we just covered around Gaza.

00:02:39.660 All right.

00:02:40.020 So to give you an idea, because I think this is emblematic of where things are.

00:02:44.160 Yes.

00:02:44.500 So a few days ago, the Iranian wartime chief of staff was killed as a result of this.

00:02:50.000 And so they replaced him with Al-Shadamini.

00:02:53.140 He was killed four days after his appointment.

00:02:56.160 Ooh.

00:02:56.600 And then after that, the Israeli, like, I don't know, one of their, their talking voices for like the government came up and they said, we don't know who is under consideration next.

00:03:09.280 With a very, like, the guy next to them gave us like a smile after that, like, because you'd be dead if we did.

00:03:14.920 This sounds like the beginning of one of your izakai fiction books.

00:03:20.180 Yeah, that I write.

00:03:21.120 It's like, well, we, you're the fourth person we're bringing in.

00:03:24.480 All the previous three died.

00:03:27.320 And then they go, we would advise them not to take the job.

00:03:32.240 If they do, we advise them to be extremely cautious.

00:03:37.500 Well, I can only imagine that Mossad knows in general enough to know who would be the logical next pick for a couple rungs down the ladder.

00:03:47.840 Right?

00:03:48.320 Yeah, but I also understand waiting until they take the job. 1.00

00:03:53.080 Well, sure, to not be a jerk. 0.99

00:03:55.720 Yeah, to, you know, have some courtesy. 0.98

00:03:58.380 But I imagine the more important thing is you have to know all these things ahead of time because you have to know where they live.

00:04:04.940 You have to know how to target their apartment.

00:04:06.520 Like, all these, this homework has been done, which is what I find even more impressive.

00:04:10.760 So let's start with the homework, you know.

00:04:12.660 Yes, yes.

00:04:13.620 Let's talk efficiency.

00:04:15.080 Israel's decapitation strike on Iran's military leadership.

00:04:18.300 Some other recent things is they took out an entire research facility with everyone inside.

00:04:23.660 They took out a high-tech centrifuge.

00:04:26.800 A hacker group took out Iran's major bank's primary archives.

00:04:31.040 And they've said that there are some operations that will be revealed Thursday and Friday that are going to make the quote-unquote beeper operation look simple.

00:04:41.500 And the beeper operation is one of the most complicated operations in spy history by a dramatic margin.

00:04:47.960 You can see our episode on that.

00:04:49.660 So this is going to be big.

00:04:51.640 Israel's surprise offensive wiped out a significant portion of Iran's military high command.

00:04:55.860 In the early hours of June 13th, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion.

00:05:01.760 Over 200 Israeli jets struck at least 100 targets across Iran in five waves.

00:05:08.080 Among those killed were Major General Mohammed Bagari, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, and General Hassemi Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC.

00:05:21.100 This is like their core other – it'd be like if they killed the head of the Navy and the head of the army and the head of the, you know, Marines all in one day is what the equivalent is here.

00:05:33.520 These two were Iran's most senior military officers.

00:05:37.480 Bagari, effectively the second most powerful figure in Iran's military hierarchy, and Salami, the head of the elite IRGC.

00:05:45.440 The strikes also eliminated other top commanders, General Ghulami Rashad, deputy of the armed forces commander, General Amar Ali Hazajah Deh, head of the IRGC Aerospace Force, and at least four additional senior IRGC leaders.

00:06:03.460 In total, Israeli attacks killed at least 20 Iranian military commanders, a quote-unquote stunning decapitation of Iran's defense leadership.

00:06:12.300 By the way, that stunning decapitation came from routers, which is otherwise a fairly progressive outlet.

00:06:18.520 Oh, routers. Yes, okay.

00:06:21.620 Even a close advisor to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Shaka Manani, was reportedly caught in a strike on Tehran's apartment block and gravely injured.

00:06:32.100 The coordinated assassination campaign effectively gutted Iran's military leadership, mirroring Israelis' previous elimination of Hezbollah's top command in Lebanon the year prior.

00:06:42.960 Tehran swiftly appointed replacements.

00:06:45.020 For example, IRGC General Adevahadi was named the successor to Salami.

00:06:51.160 But the loss of so many seasoned leaders was a severe blow, and even since then, many of the successors have been killed.

00:06:57.160 So, the degree of, like, you can't imagine, like, imagine if in the United States, like, every top leader across every top department was gone, right?

00:07:08.160 In one day.

00:07:09.780 And people can be like, I've seen people be like, I'm not pro-assassinations.

00:07:13.280 Well, what are you, pro-long drawn-out wars?

00:07:15.520 Like, are you, you would rather, instead of the generals who effed up and let it get to this point,

00:07:21.000 be the ones who are disproportionately bearing the brunt of this, have it be the foot soldiers?

00:07:24.600 And if you're talking about Iran, the foot soldiers don't even want this that much.

00:07:29.240 Like, Iran is one of the most westernized in terms of the average belief system of the population of the major Islamic countries.

00:07:38.420 They do not have, at the level of the average citizen, the beliefs of their leadership.

00:07:45.580 Exactly.

00:07:47.020 I mean, people have all often fantasized about wars boiling down to hand-to-hand combat between leaders.

00:07:54.240 Like, this is, this is as close to the dreams I think practically we can get, right?

00:07:58.460 Yeah.

00:07:59.180 Well, and I, I think Iran is also, like, one of those countries, I wouldn't say it's, like, fully westernized.

00:08:04.020 I think it's more like your average Turkish citizen or something.

00:08:07.340 Like, they're Muslim, but they're not, like, you know, Wahhabist.

00:08:10.920 They're not, like, a Gazan.

00:08:13.100 They're not, like, an Egyptian.

00:08:14.840 They're, they're more, like, moderated.

00:08:17.160 So, I would say, like, Iran is a very, if you want to understand what the country is actually like, it's an interesting situation where it's almost as if you have a pseudo-democracy that is under the control of a theocratic Islamic government with a moderate population.

00:08:32.060 But if you want to get an understanding of how moderate that population might be, you can look at our episode called, I think it's something like, Iran, the secular theocracy, where we talk about how common secular beliefs are was in Iran and how common anti-even Islamic beliefs are was in Iran.

00:08:49.820 Right.

00:08:50.460 That was a while ago, but it was good.

00:08:52.060 Yeah, and this is why I'm saying, like, I, I, the funny thing about all this is, is that the Jews may save the Iranian people from a fascist dictatorship. 0.56

00:09:04.380 That, that would be effing wild if that happened.

00:09:07.200 Well, and it does seem, I mean, even when you just look at their inability to improve birth rates, the Iranian government is failing its people systematically.

00:09:16.040 Yeah, it's completely feckless, yeah.

00:09:17.680 Yeah, like, a regime change, which kind of is the major upside of this, if, like, Israel gets its, its, its reach goal, you know, like, that would be good for them, too. 0.89

00:09:27.460 I think that they should probably revert back to the old monarchy, and the old, you know, the, the rightful king right now has been talking a lot on this.

00:09:34.680 He said that the Ayatollah ran to his caves like a rat.

00:09:38.560 People need to come up and retake their, their, you know, country. 0.99

00:09:42.680 We have words.

00:09:43.800 We have spicy words.

00:09:44.860 Well, no, I mean, I think that within different regions, with different cultural proclivities, in some regions, monarchies work better, or in some regions, democracies work better.

00:09:52.780 No, absolutely.

00:09:53.460 Well, and also, I think when, when you're in a region experiencing crisis, sometimes going from crisis to democracy doesn't work out that well.

00:10:02.140 Yeah.

00:10:02.540 Right away.

00:10:03.000 But we'll, we'll get into the monarchy and all this history and everything as well, because a lot, one mistake that I've heard from a lot of people that just has a complete ignorance of the situation is, is this for actually from Hasmogold, and we'll get into this a lot later.

00:10:13.780 He says that he didn't think that Iran would still hate America, if America wasn't allied with Israel.

00:10:19.780 And I'm like, actually, buddy, based on the evidence we have, Iran hates Israel because Israel is allied with America, and America is allied with Saudi Arabia, and that they have repeatedly shown openness to normalizing relationships with Israel.

00:10:35.760 If only America would turn against Saudi Arabia, but we'll get to, I don't know, I was talking to an AI about this, and he goes, well, you've got to remember that they're a theocratic government.

00:10:43.620 And I'm like, yeah, but their form of Islam is not as conservative as Wahhabism, and apparently the Saudis can find a way to normalize things with Israel, and it's like, actually, that's a really good point. 0.78

00:10:53.620 Probably not for theological reasons, but we'll get into the geopolitics of the region in a bit later.

00:10:58.700 I want to get into the facts.

00:10:59.680 The reason I'm getting into geopolitics later is that, like, you're broadly educated, you know this geopolitics stuff.

00:11:04.280 I want to start with the stuff that I wouldn't know because the news is not covering this comprehensively.

00:11:11.500 Right.

00:11:12.640 Extensive strikes on nuclear and military sites.

00:11:16.300 Beyond personnel, Israel's strikes aimed to cripple Iran's strategic capabilities.

00:11:21.040 The raids targeted key nuclear facilities, most notably the Natanz uranium enrichment complex, Iran's largest nuclear site.

00:11:28.140 Multiple explosions rocketed Natanz, and satellite imagery confirmed heavy damage to critical infrastructure.

00:11:35.600 The electrical power substation was destroyed, and an above-ground centrifuge was blasted.

00:11:41.000 The UN nuclear watchdog chief, Rafael Ghazi, informed the UN Security Council that Natanz's above-ground pilot enrichment plant had been, quote-unquote, destroyed.

00:11:51.360 And again, that's from routers.

00:11:52.300 Though Iran's underground enrichment halls remained intact.

00:11:56.240 Israel also struck the deep underground Farderwo enrichment facility, causing limited damage as Israel lacks the bunker busters to crack the mountain.

00:12:06.060 And nuclear research center is fun.

00:12:09.740 Keep this in, man.

00:12:11.480 Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha.

00:12:14.300 In addition, Israeli missiles hit Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure.

00:12:19.340 For example, an underground missile depot in Kerminashan, near the Iraq border, was bombed.

00:12:26.800 Missile production and launch sites, such as Bid-Kahani complex and air defense batteries, were also targeted.

00:12:33.720 So a lot of the missiles you're seeing now come out of Iran.

00:12:36.280 Prematurely, a lot of these were taken out, so you're already seeing a fairly limited capacity.

00:12:39.840 And one of the things we're going to look at is, why did Iran's missile output decline so quickly?

00:12:46.280 So in other words, what you're saying is, not only is Israel like, okay, we're going to end this progress toward nukes, which has just hit this point of... 0.57

00:12:54.980 We're going to kill anyone involved in this, anyone involved in your military, yes.

00:12:58.260 Well, and also, we're going to anticipate retaliatory attacks and try to undermine the infrastructure associated with that. 0.99

00:13:05.840 Yeah, okay.

00:13:06.500 In Tehran itself, dozens of sites were struck, including military installations and even the defense military headquarters.

00:13:16.080 By the third day of operations, Israeli claimed over 80 targets in Tehran alone had been hit, from nuclear weapons project labs to fuel depots, triggering massive fireballs at fuel storage facility in Sharam district.

00:13:28.900 These widespread strikes across Iran's geography demonstrated Israel's intent to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and missile arsenal comprehensively, not just deliver a symbolic blow. 0.53

00:13:38.920 And I think that this is really important. 0.99

00:13:40.360 What's happening here is, they are like, we are going to cut your balls off. 0.99

00:13:44.700 We are going to completely neuter you so you can't do anything for 20 years. 0.99

00:13:50.400 That was the goal of this.

00:13:53.260 And they might have achieved that.

00:13:54.720 We will discuss the extent of the damage and Iran's current situation right now.

00:14:00.560 Hmm.

00:14:01.740 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed the campaign would continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat, framing it as essential to Israel's survival.

00:14:11.980 A note here that wasn't mentioned here, another way that Israel has done us attacks is actually very similar to what Ukraine did with the drones.

00:14:20.360 Right, like moving things in piecemeal, like in suitcases and in trucks.

00:14:24.620 Yes, there's been a lot of drones.

00:14:26.400 I think hundreds or thousands of drones moved in piecemeal into Iran in suitcases, in parts that have been reconstructed within the country and have been used in these attacks to keep things very targeted.

00:14:37.520 Now, I should note, Israel doesn't do targeted in the way the U.S. does targeted.

00:14:41.980 When the U.S. says targeted, they mean we're going to try to not kill any civilians.

00:14:45.160 When Israel does targeted, it means we don't really care that much about killing civilians, but we won't kill any unnecessary people in terms of killing the exact people we want to kill.

00:14:55.240 But like if they're at their apartment, you know, that apartment's gone.

00:14:58.800 You know, if they're at a whatever, that's gone.

00:15:01.580 Like we don't care, right?

00:15:02.660 And I actually think that in the long run, this will lead to lower civilian casualties because if you look at, you know, what things like Hamas has ended up doing is, you know, putting babies, putting daycares, putting kids right next to sites because they think that they can use that to deter Israel. 0.73

00:15:20.100 And it has led to a lot of these people dying.

00:15:22.260 And I think that's really horrible.

00:15:23.740 And if you just learn that that Israel doesn't care about that, then you're not going to play that gambit anymore.

00:15:29.660 Yeah.

00:15:30.340 Civilian toll and collateral damage in Iran.

00:15:32.840 A firefighter calls out for colleagues at the site of a blast in Tehran residential compound after an Israeli strike on June 13th, 2025.

00:15:41.100 Dozens of civilians were killed when missiles hit an apartment block during the strikes.

00:15:45.120 And that's from The Guardian.

00:15:46.300 Despite Israel's focus on military targets, the offensive has inflicted heavy civilian toll in Iran.

00:15:51.880 Iranian authorities said the first day's strike killed at least 80 people and wounded 320.

00:15:56.920 But again, that's Iranian authorities and that's Al Jazeera.

00:16:01.440 And if they're saying, and I would note how small that is compared to what Israel accomplished.

00:16:06.740 Killed 80 people.

00:16:08.680 This is Al Jazeera, an anti-Israel newspaper.

00:16:12.000 Keep in mind, it's by Qatar, a cutter. 1.00

00:16:15.000 Right.

00:16:15.200 They're going to go for the higher range of damage in this case.

00:16:20.120 No, they will intentionally manipulate.

00:16:23.080 Qatar is the primary donor, even more than Iran, to Hamas.

00:16:28.420 Iran is only a larger donor if you include the cost of goods, like weapons and stuff that they're sending.

00:16:33.380 Or like training weapons.

00:16:35.300 Well, I mean, that's not a lot.

00:16:36.640 Al Jazeera is their mouse piece, okay?

00:16:39.400 They are firmly allied with Iran, was in this, against the Saudi Arabian power structure in the UAE and everything like that.

00:16:47.000 We'll get to all this in a little bit.

00:16:48.740 The point being is a source that is basically Iranian state TV, Al Jazeera, mixed was the Iranian government, said only 80 civilians died on the first day.

00:16:59.500 Yeah, that is really impressive.

00:17:01.000 That is astonishing.

00:17:01.960 Yeah.

00:17:02.240 I would say that, okay, well, then what's the real number?

00:17:04.660 Probably 20.

00:17:05.940 And if I go with, okay, if the real number is probably 20, because I'm just saying, like, how much would a state newspaper lie?

00:17:11.040 You're talking about, like, North Korea-style state newspapers here.

00:17:14.140 Okay.

00:17:14.460 So if the real number is probably 20, and for 20 people, they potentially shut down, like, a nuclear site and retaliation, that's huge.

00:17:25.680 That is especially considering the damage caused by nuclear weapons.

00:17:31.520 So that's, yeah.

00:17:33.280 Yeah.

00:17:33.540 And Al Jazeera here argues that 20 of those killed were children, but again, this is Al Jazeera, which is basically, you know, Islamist state news.

00:17:43.100 And not normal Islamist, the Iranian side. 1.00

00:17:45.420 Not the Wahhabists. 1.00

00:17:46.380 They wouldn't say anything mean about the Wahhabists that they want because they hate them. 1.00

00:17:49.640 But we'll get into that little conflict in a second.

00:17:52.220 In Tehran, some missiles struck residential areas while targeting regime figures.

00:17:55.920 One strike leveled a high-rise apartment building in the Farah Hazad neighborhood, killing around 60 civilians in that single incident, according to Iranian claims.

00:18:05.820 Well, that's more than a lot of the other things.

00:18:08.140 So did almost everyone die in one incident?

00:18:10.780 Over several days, as Israeli raids continued, the cumulative human costs mounted.

00:18:15.920 By June 15th, the independent human rights org, activist news agency Harana, tallied at least 406 people killed in Iran and another 654 injured.

00:18:27.100 Again, those are incredibly low numbers, given the scale of what's being accomplished here.

00:18:31.560 These figures suggest that for each high-profile general or nuclear scientist eliminated, many Iranian civilians have been caught in the crossfire,

00:18:40.300 whether from errant missiles, strikes, or dual-use infrastructure or secondary explosion.

00:18:44.800 Iran's government has blasted Israel for what it calls deliberate attacks on civilian areas, though Israel insists any civilian harm was unintentional.

00:18:52.660 Israel knows when they're bombing a civilian apartment complex where they know a scientist is, civilians are going to be harmed.

00:18:59.020 But Iran, it's rich that they say this.

00:19:01.640 Well, in response, they just send waves and waves of unguided dummy missiles.

00:19:06.740 How dare you sometimes kill the people who live in the same apartment building as our nuclear scientist who wants to wipe your people off the planet?

00:19:15.200 We will send wave after wave after dummy missile for this injustice.

00:19:20.180 But, like, I get it.

00:19:21.040 What else are they supposed to do?

00:19:22.020 They don't have access.

00:19:22.800 You know, they've already used all their guided missiles, right?

00:19:25.020 Yeah.

00:19:25.380 We'll be painting a picture of how far in a corner Iran is painted right now, and I really don't blame them for this. 0.78

00:19:32.140 I just am a little annoyed with the hypocrisy.

00:19:33.820 Still, scenes of rescuers pulling wounded families from collapsed homes in Tehran underscore the blistering attacks come at a painful price for Iranian society.

00:19:43.260 Now, Iran's fragility before the onslaught. 1.00

00:19:46.720 Ironically, Israel's hammer blow landed at a time when Iran was already weakened and in a fragile state.

00:19:52.720 Both domestically and in its regional posture, economically, Iran had been reeling under renewed U.S. maximum pressure sanctions and internal mismanagement.

00:20:03.680 By 2025, the country was mired in its worst economic crisis in 40 years with soaring inflation and fuel shortages.

00:20:12.340 The economic pain had translated into public frustration and sporadic protests, threatening the regime's stability even before the first Israeli missile fell.

00:20:24.220 International Atomic Agency, IAEA, reports of Iran's nuclear noncompliance had Iran facing the possibility of harsher sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

00:20:35.080 Meanwhile, Iran's regional influence had been eroding.

00:20:38.120 Over the past year, Tehran's network of proxy forces, its chief mechanism for projecting power, suffered devastating setbacks.

00:20:46.540 In late 2024, Iran's ally in Damascus, the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, was overthrown, removing a cornerstone of Iran's axis of resistance.

00:20:56.720 Around the same time, Israel waged major campaigns against Iran-aligned militants on Israel's borders.

00:21:03.460 Hezbollah in Lebanon was decapitated with its longtime leader, Hassan Nazar Ali, reportedly assassinated, and its fighting capabilities shattered.

00:21:13.320 And you can see our video on the Pager attack, which was just absolutely devastating.

00:21:18.200 But we go over it as a strategy for applying to jobs.

00:21:21.320 But the devastating nature of the attack and the brilliance of it really cannot be overstated.

00:21:25.920 Because they basically took out all of Hezbollah, which is crazy.

00:21:30.000 So they've taken out Hezbollah.

00:21:32.880 Hamas is not a useful ally to Iran anymore.

00:21:36.020 And now the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is overthrown.

00:21:40.320 Basically, Iran built out this network of allies in the region, which are all sort of like, if you play Command & Conquer, it's like the extended GLA network. 0.51

00:21:49.080 It was the Muslims who just wanted to kill other people, not the ones who wanted like some sort of regional stability and ability to work with the outside world, which is what you see with the Saudi Arabia-aligned forces, right? 1.00

00:22:02.500 Even though they're actually more conservative and more conservative Muslim, they're more like the resistance. 1.00

00:22:07.180 And these guys are more like, well, we're more conservative, but we're going to, you know, go with the status quo, okay?

00:22:12.360 And I won't say I hate that.

00:22:13.440 I kind of like the whole resistance thing.

00:22:14.760 I like playing the GLA in Command & Conquer. 0.96

00:22:16.520 No, I will share a short clip to give you an idea of what I mean by they are basically the modern GLA faction.

00:22:23.720 But I must warn you before sharing it that, you know, back in the 2000s, video game companies were very, very politically correct.

00:22:32.880 So you're going to have to brace yourself for this.

00:22:36.200 We must be on our guard.

00:22:37.980 Reports say the GLA might attack us revenge for our entering the war.

00:22:46.520 GLA forces, we're under attack!

00:22:59.720 They are everywhere!

00:23:01.220 We are being overrun!

00:23:02.360 Another wave! 0.64

00:23:17.120 We need reinforcements!

00:23:19.160 We've lost the airfield!

00:23:23.760 They are trying to get to the main reactor.

00:23:26.140 Protected at all costs!

00:23:27.440 They're my favorite faction by an enormous margin.

00:23:37.520 By, like, 80%, I just play the GLA.

00:23:40.580 If anyone knows what I'm talking about, I'm a big fan.

00:23:43.100 Unit lost.

00:23:45.020 Unit lost.

00:23:47.060 A warrior has fallen.

00:23:48.360 But what I'm saying here is in terms of, like, global stability and everything like that, I get where they were going with this.

00:24:09.900 But they sort of made themselves an enemy of everyone except for global adjutants at the same time.

00:24:15.200 And with Russia tied down, and everyone else who was interested in global agitation, like North Korea, etc., tied down because Russia is tied down,

00:24:25.100 Iran, you know, allowed its sort of agents, you know, the Hezbollah, the Hamas, the Syrian guy, to sort of be left out on a limb.

00:24:36.260 And Israel just took the opportunity to, like, well, I wouldn't even say Israel.

00:24:39.580 It was more a massage to just cut those strings one by one by one.

00:24:44.680 And once all those strings were cut, they targeted the thing that was funding all of that, which is first Iran, and they probably won't go after Qatar, if I'm going to be honest.

00:24:55.040 But this is, I wonder if Qatar is going to rethink their situation because they've lost pretty much all of their supporters if Iran ends up undergoing any sort of political realignment.

00:25:06.260 Although I don't think that that's a real story.

00:25:07.380 Is Qatar's endgame different from that of Iran?

00:25:11.400 I mean, I think so, right?

00:25:13.520 I mean, they...

00:25:14.020 Well, Qatar was sort of...

00:25:15.860 Okay, so we're going to go on a brief tangent here about my understanding of what's happening in the region.

00:25:21.680 And I call them Qatar because I'm an American, and that's a real word, and Qatar sounds lame.

00:25:26.140 Anyway, so Qatar was, if anything, sort of in, like, a pride fight with the UAE, almost more than it was with the various regional forces.

00:25:37.380 And the UAE had arrived themselves with the Saudi Arabian and American factions.

00:25:41.320 And so Qatar almost, like, reflexively aligned themselves with Iran.

00:25:46.380 But I don't think they ever really had a serious, like, foot in the game or anything like that.

00:25:51.080 I don't think they cared that much.

00:25:53.420 And so I think a lot of this is just they're going to give up pretty quickly.

00:25:58.140 Like, they're going to be like, okay, well, those minions died.

00:26:01.560 Let's see where we can reorient ourselves.

00:26:03.840 Because otherwise, they're not, like, that big a power player except for the money they have.

00:26:09.240 Well, what confuses me about them is that they also invest a lot in reputational things with the West.

00:26:17.120 Just, you know, like, Iran isn't trying to, like, bring in Western tourism and engage other, like, Western thought leaders.

00:26:25.440 Yeah, but they're not doing it successfully.

00:26:28.240 Qatar is in?

00:26:28.860 They're not, like, UAE.

00:26:29.640 Contrast them.

00:26:30.980 Contrast Dubai.

00:26:32.360 And do you know any city in Qatar's name?

00:26:34.940 Doha.

00:26:35.800 Okay, Doha.

00:26:36.700 Yeah, because we might be doing a thing there soon.

00:26:39.060 Well, also, like, you know Doha's in Qatar.

00:26:41.900 But I don't know any other cities, to be fair, but I don't know other cities, except from, like, major, major cities and capitals and other Middle Eastern countries either.

00:26:52.200 Because we don't do much work there.

00:26:53.640 And if I don't do work somewhere, this is how it is for most people, then I'm probably not going to remember what I at one point memorized.

00:27:00.640 So, lame.

00:27:01.960 But, I mean, I guess the point I'm making is from Qatar's perspective, it's like all their minions were killed. 0.98

00:27:06.940 They don't particularly, I don't know if they care that much.

00:27:10.820 It's like, okay, well, that particular card hand didn't play out.

00:27:14.240 Because they haven't actually burned Bridges with the West that much, for whatever reason.

00:27:18.220 Well, no, and they're, well, they seem to be trying to invest in being a world player in various economic and cultural and intellectual spheres.

00:27:29.480 Well, they might work, too, and with conventions, too.

00:27:32.140 Like, I think that's, like, some anime stuff that's happened there.

00:27:34.380 Yeah, they might be, this is, like, a useful cutting of the strings, then.

00:27:37.120 They might be like, oh, this is fantastic.

00:27:38.600 Now we don't need to appeal to those crazy people anymore.

00:27:41.540 Yeah, I mean, yeah, part of it is, I just, and I'm speaking, of course, from immense ignorance about what's really going on in the area. 0.87

00:27:48.700 But Iran seems like this really unstable mean girl who has, like, this troop of, like, she's a rich mean girl. 1.00

00:27:55.380 Or at least a mean girl who, like, spends all of her family's money, so maybe they aren't actually that rich. 0.58

00:27:59.680 But she, like, forces her parents to go into credit card debt for her.

00:28:03.280 And she just spends all this money on her flunkies. 1.00

00:28:06.660 And her flunkies cause a lot of problems and bully other people and are really unstable.

00:28:12.520 And now she's being pistol whipped by someone else at school.

00:28:20.420 Who already, like, beat up all her flunkies. 1.00

00:28:23.020 Yeah, like, Cotter, who, like, kind of was nice to her or, like, sometimes helped out her flunkies, too.

00:28:30.640 Maybe out of, like, protection or maybe out of, like, yeah, I mean, I also don't like the people that you're bullying that much.

00:28:35.840 It may now just be like, oh, I'm not going to hitch myself to this losing.

00:28:39.900 Yeah, no, that's sort of the impression I get is Cotter might be the person who walked into the room and is, like, the very wealthy aristocratic girl.

00:28:46.380 And she sees this other girl who she saw as, like, her friend just absolutely being beaten with, like, the back of a gun.

00:28:54.320 And she's like, whoa, I didn't know that could happen.

00:28:56.760 I'm walking out of the room right now.

00:28:58.680 Like, you guys have fun with that little game.

00:29:01.380 I don't know this person.

00:29:02.700 I don't know this person.

00:29:32.700 I don't know this person.

00:30:02.680 And then Cotter walks in and is like, hey, girls, how's it?

00:30:11.100 Oh, oh, whoa.

00:30:13.040 And just, like, slowly turns around, hoping she hasn't noticed and starts walking back out of the room.

00:30:19.920 Yeah, but I mean, Iran has really been asking for it, too.

00:30:22.380 Like, just by, I mean, the fact that Iran was being sanctioned for crossing the line with developing nuclear weapons.

00:30:31.360 I think it was getting to this point where Iran was like, what are you going to do?

00:30:35.520 What are you going to come at me?

00:30:36.740 The Daily Show was so funny.

00:30:37.780 The Daily Show did this piece where they show Netanyahu talking over and over again throughout history about how Iran is getting close to crossing the line.

00:30:44.520 And he's like, you see, like, this is all fake.

00:30:46.400 I was like, imagine if I showed him, like, environmentalist scientists saying over and over again how close we are.

00:30:52.360 I'm like, oh, that's proof environmental issues aren't an issue.

00:30:55.240 You know, global warming isn't an issue.

00:30:56.600 You'd be like, whoa, whoa, it is an issue there.

00:31:00.340 You know, they were just – and I'm like, no.

00:31:01.920 So, actually, it isn't an issue there because we never actually made any big – they kept saying, well, if you do this and if you do this, then it won't be an issue and we can delay it.

00:31:11.080 But we never accomplished any of those things the environmentalist advocates said.

00:31:14.220 But Israel kept saying, well, you know, we can slow them down 10 years.

00:31:17.700 And then they do, like, Stuxnet.

00:31:20.020 Stuxnet, if you're not familiar with that, was this amazing program where they, like, absolutely screwed up.

00:31:25.080 Really amazing.

00:31:25.740 So, they jumped the Iranian, like, air-gap computers using, like, USB sticks that they, like, left outside. 0.95

00:31:32.500 You think in a parking lot, right?

00:31:34.080 Yeah.

00:31:34.320 And then they plugged it into the internal computer system to, like, see what's on it.

00:31:38.280 And then it slowly went through and it sped up the turbine to the point where it destroyed all the machinery.

00:31:44.300 Yeah.

00:31:45.520 And they couldn't be fixed.

00:31:47.060 You know, they had to start from scratch after this.

00:31:49.220 Yeah.

00:31:49.500 So, absolutely brilliant, by the way, especially in terms of a no-death way to, you know, slow this down.

00:31:54.980 But what we kept seeing was Israel is they kept slowing down Iran through things that we can, like, measure.

00:32:00.640 Like, this is why they kept delaying the timeline.

00:32:03.220 And they finally got to a point where I think, we'll get into a lot of this in a second, but I think they sort of got to the point of, like, nobody cares.

00:32:09.960 You know, most of the Western powers right now at least want Iran out of the scene, especially with what's going on in Russia right now.

00:32:17.160 And Iran's, you know, tacit alliance with Russia.

00:32:19.920 You know, they don't want them to have nuclear weapons any more than we do.

00:32:22.600 And we're already in this incredible negative public perception around Gaza right now.

00:32:28.760 And, you know, Iran's in this incredibly weak position because we just took out every single one of their major surrogates.

00:32:34.880 Yeah.

00:32:35.440 In an ironic way, it was the Gaza protesters that sort of led to this because they put Israel in a position where everyone who was going to turn against them for trying to protect themselves had already turned against them.

00:32:48.340 And there was no one else who could possibly turn against them for that reason.

00:32:52.280 And yet those was in Western positions of power who wanted them to take out a threat to also them because Gaza wasn't really that much of a threat to any of the Western players.

00:33:01.280 But Iran was. 0.90

00:33:02.840 It was really only on that benefit for them to go and do this because of the protesters.

00:33:07.700 We came for their friends and then we came for their internal infrastructure.

00:33:11.740 We came for their leaders.

00:33:13.280 There's a chilling effect, too, with anyone else who might take a position of leadership.

00:33:16.960 Well, I mean, it's not just that.

00:33:18.340 Trump recently is like, oh, we could take out the supreme leader.

00:33:21.060 We've just decided not to, which I love as well.

00:33:24.000 He's like, you know, we've decided not to for now, I think is what he said.

00:33:26.980 Oh, Trump.

00:33:27.520 That's very Trump.

00:33:28.300 Anyway.

00:33:28.480 In Gaza, the Hamas militant faction backed by Iran was decimated during a two-year war following its October 2023 attack.

00:33:36.720 So we're again talking about their various, you know, people who follow them.

00:33:40.320 With Hezbollah and Hamas neutralized and the Syrian corridor disputed, Iran found itself strategically isolated, its deterrent reach blunted.

00:33:49.980 Even Iran's attempts to retaliate indirectly, for example, via Yemen's Houthi rebels, have been constrained by prior U.S. and Israeli actions.

00:33:59.520 In short, by June 2025, Iran was strategically and economically brittle.

00:34:05.300 The fragility likely influenced Israel's timing, as Rand analysts note.

00:34:11.000 Israel perceived a, quote-unquote, closing window of opportunity, having, quote, dealt significant blows to Iran's proxy network, end quote,

00:34:18.660 and seeing Iran's regional position as its weakest.

00:34:22.620 The Iranian regime, for its part, was aware of its precarious position.

00:34:26.640 In May, Iran's secretary council, ironically chaired by General Beghari, who would soon be killed, met to harden defenses against a potential U.S. and Israeli strike.

00:34:36.640 Yet those preparations proved inefficient to prevent Israel's onslaught. 0.95

00:34:40.000 The confluence of internal economic stressors and external losses left Iran ill-prepared to absorb the massive attack that followed,

00:34:49.180 adding to fears in Tehran that the regime's very survival could be at stake.

00:34:53.660 Now we're going to talk about the weird phenomenon we've seen of Westerners supporting this.

00:35:00.540 A striking aspect of this conflict is the largely supportive reaction of Western governments to Israel's attack on Iran.

00:35:07.180 And this has even been noted in a New York Times piece I read today, where they're like,

00:35:10.840 why are all the Western governments so supportive of this?

00:35:14.920 A sharp contrast to the wary critical stance during Israel's war on Gaza.

00:35:20.800 Within hours of the strikes, leaders in the U.K., France, Germany, and other Western nations

00:35:24.960 openly affirmed Israel's right to self-defense against Iran's nuclear threat.

00:35:31.920 France's president, Emmanuel Macron, even blamed Iran for destabilizing the region.

00:35:37.300 Noting Tehran was enriching uranium to near weapons grade was no civilian rationale.

00:35:41.860 And I note here, by the way, that Iran was in the middle of talks about this with Israel, right?

00:35:47.580 So I'm not, just to take the other side of this, it wasn't like there weren't like ongoing talks.

00:35:52.200 Within the next week, they were supposed to be finalizing things.

00:35:55.260 And then all these attacks happened, and everyone who was a participant to those talks are like,

00:35:59.840 eh, this is for the best.

00:36:02.000 So I think it shows what their spy networks were saying about whatever Iran was doing on the other side of this.

00:36:07.100 Because these countries have informants as well, right?

00:36:09.580 Britain's prime minister, Keir Starmer, announced he was deploying combat aircraft to the Middle East

00:36:16.400 in a show of solidarity with the Israelis' defense.

00:36:19.080 Keep in mind, this is the U.K. after.

00:36:21.880 So Macron is like, oh. 0.99

00:36:23.960 And then the U.K., those big pussies are actually sending military aircraft. 0.99

00:36:30.400 Imagine them doing that around Gaza, right? 1.00

00:36:32.500 But I think, I mean, everyone recognizes the threat of a new country coming online with nuclear.

00:36:41.320 The fact that Assad... 0.72

00:36:42.440 Well, no, it's very different than any other country coming online with nuclear.

00:36:45.980 Because Russia or North Korea comes online with nuclear, and your fear is them using it defensively,

00:36:52.780 and it lowering your ability to maneuver geopolitically.

00:36:56.720 Iran is the first country with nuclear that might just use it the moment they get it.

00:37:01.040 Oh, yeah.

00:37:02.400 Okay, so your point is, like, it's one thing for them to have it for signaling reasons.

00:37:07.080 It's another thing to have it for, like, they're going to kill you.

00:37:09.840 Ideological and ideological reasons.

00:37:11.200 Yeah.

00:37:12.140 Okay.

00:37:12.640 And honestly, they might use it on Saudi Arabia before they use it on Israel.

00:37:16.660 You know, they, you know, we'll get to that in a second.

00:37:18.660 But, like, Iran might send missiles flying, and that makes them very different than other countries. 0.66

00:37:23.200 Germany's Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, likewise declared that, quote,

00:37:29.520 Israel has the right to defend its existence.

00:37:32.000 Iran's nuclear program is an existential threat, end quote.

00:37:35.280 You know, all these countries, when Gaza happened, they were like, what are you doing? 0.95

00:37:39.160 You terrible Nazis.

00:37:41.140 And now they're like, oh. 0.97

00:37:41.940 Well, I mean, Iran is different.

00:37:46.800 You can handle them in the background if you want.

00:37:50.360 What's really happening here, just in case people are wondering, is all of these countries wanted Iran really defanged.

00:37:56.520 You know, they wanted every one of Iran's teeth ripped out. 0.99

00:37:59.360 Israel's doing that. 0.96

00:38:00.440 Israel's paying for it. 0.96

00:38:01.940 Israel's taking the blame for it. 0.97

00:38:03.400 And the rest of Europe is like, you, you go ahead and do that.

00:38:07.260 Whatever you want to do.

00:38:08.740 Like, I'm not going to, I'm not, I want to get out of you later.

00:38:12.420 We might allow our citizens to protest this.

00:38:14.920 And I think that this shows that this is not war mongering, right?

00:38:18.140 When every single other major power, powers that do not like Israel in many cases, are immediately like, oh, well, in this one instance.

00:38:28.700 Just.

00:38:29.300 Yeah.

00:38:29.900 I can't resist.

00:38:31.220 And we'll talk about this later.

00:38:33.400 If anything, it is, it is, it is decreased the pressure that they were placing on Israel for Gaza, which I think is really interesting.

00:38:39.760 And I didn't expect it all.

00:38:42.680 Ah, I mean, you think at this point right now, because of the distraction posed by Iran. 0.93

00:38:48.760 No, not by the distraction.

00:38:50.000 It's Germany, France, the UK, the U.S. less because the U.S. is already pro-Israel, but the European powers, right?

00:38:57.620 They were avidly against Israel, what Israel was doing in Gaza, right?

00:39:02.220 Yeah.

00:39:02.700 But now they're in this situation where it's like, I know we were complaining about that thing you were doing in Gaza, right?

00:39:07.940 But I wouldn't want to distract you with our complaints until you're done with this Iran thing. 1.00

00:39:13.480 Then we can revisit the Gaza situation, is sort of where they are right now.

00:39:18.400 I see.

00:39:20.100 At least at the government level.

00:39:22.340 Okay.

00:39:22.980 Interesting.

00:39:23.340 Which I think says to people, you've got to ask yourself, what do these governments know that you don't, that despite their rabidly often anti-Israeli perspective, they feel this way about Iran?

00:39:33.180 Yeah, that is big.

00:39:34.720 That is big.

00:39:36.640 I didn't expect them to feel this way.

00:39:38.600 And this was actually a shock to me where it revealed to me that intelligence services knew something about Iran that I didn't know.

00:39:44.160 I didn't think that they were this potentially threatening to all of these countries.

00:39:49.020 This unified Western stance is especially remarkable given that these same leaders had just weeks before been sharply critical of Israel's conduct in Gaza.

00:39:59.820 During the Gaza campaign, European allies grew alarmed at the humanitarian toll on Palestinian civilians.

00:40:05.580 In fact, in the lead up to the Iran strikes, Germany was considering an unprecedented weapons export ban on Israel.

00:40:11.640 France has curtailed off an Israeli arms expo display and the UK suspended trade talks, all in protest of Israel's bombardment of Gaza and impediments to the humanitarian aid.

00:40:24.380 So why the about face on Iran?

00:40:26.920 Fundamentally, Western powers view of Iran's regime as a far more dangerous and unambiguous threat to global security than Hamas and Gaza.

00:40:34.060 As one analysis put it, Gaza, by late 2024, looked like a mad act of collective punishment on an enfeebled population, eroding Western sympathy.

00:40:44.740 Iran, by contrast, is a large, hostile state, a theocracy on the threshold of nuclear power that has openly sworn to destroy Israel. 0.82

00:40:53.820 In other words, Western capitals see Iran as an existential menace, not just to Israel, but to regional stability.

00:41:02.600 Well, also, like what we talked about with our discussion of the march on Gaza, in many cases, it's very difficult to help Palestinians because of what Iran continues to do in making Palestinians radicalized and violent and weaponized. 0.92

00:41:20.920 Like, a lot of the reason why we're not able to help them more is because of Iran's ongoing use of them as a cudgel. 0.87

00:41:27.980 It's horrible.

00:41:28.840 No, and I think what we're seeing here is Israel wouldn't have felt comfortable going after Iran like this if it hadn't first handled this, if it hadn't first handled Hezbollah. 0.82

00:41:37.700 And it can do this because if it did this while those two other factors were basically like Iran surrogates were still at play, then they'd just attack Israel, right?

00:41:48.940 Like, it can go after this because it handled those.

00:41:51.240 And the other major capitals and power players didn't see the wider logic at play here, especially given Iran's ballistic missiles and its military alliance with Russia, which is waging war with Ukraine.

00:42:04.600 Moreover, just one day before Israel's attack, UN nuclear inspectors reported Iran was closer than ever to a bomb, violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty, a red line for Europe's Big Three, who are staunch defenders of the NPT regime. 0.85

00:42:18.160 Now, I note here that this happened one day before they started to attack.

00:42:21.840 I bet Israel knew all this, and they were just waiting for that report to come out or the inspectors to go through and then be like, okay, now we attack. 0.79

00:42:28.100 Because Iran apparently didn't care about all the treaties.

00:42:31.860 You know, the UN thought, oh, they care about these.

00:42:33.900 Oh, no, they're not playing game.

00:42:35.640 They're not playing game.

00:42:37.280 And Israel's entire civilization was at risk as a result of this.

00:42:41.460 And what a lot of people, I think this recontextualizes what's happening in Gaza right now, to this is the goons being taken out.

00:42:49.080 Now they're taking out Command Cobra.

00:42:52.000 This isn't the putties anymore.

00:42:54.020 Facing that reality, London, Paris, and Berlin all signed approval of Israelis' preventative strikes to stop an Iranian bomb.

00:43:02.400 Wow.

00:43:02.880 London, Paris, and Berlin all signed approval.

00:43:04.940 Their emphasis was on Iran's own heavy responsibility for the conflict due to Tehran's nuclear escalation.

00:43:11.640 And I note this for anyone who says, warmonger, warmonger, clearly not.

00:43:16.120 Everyone else is like, oh, actually, that's why you were doing all this stuff in Gaza?

00:43:20.740 Well, that makes perfect sense.

00:43:22.020 Yeah, go ahead.

00:43:24.000 You go right on ahead and get rid of that Iranian problem we all have in the back of our necks. 1.00

00:43:29.780 I think a lot of people see the writing on the wall of what happens when Iran continues with what they're obviously choosing to continue doing. 0.94

00:43:40.700 I think that's the scary thing.

00:43:42.260 Well, I love Trump's response to this, which is, he goes, he tweets, I'm not in the mood for negotiation.

00:43:48.200 Wow.

00:43:49.060 You know, that's a very, like, thing to say.

00:43:52.180 Very Trump, you know.

00:43:53.200 In effect, Israel's offensive against Iran achieved what years of Gaza fighting could not, a broad realignment of Western support behind Israel, at least in the short term.

00:44:05.040 Western leaders still verbally call for de-escalation to avoid a bigger war, but they have largely refrained from the harsh condemnations and sanctions threats that accompanied Gaza.

00:44:13.780 The difference comes down to strategic self-interest, stopping nuclear proliferation, and checking a Russian-aligned adversary takes precedence for the rest, whereas Israel's punitive operations in Gaza raised uncomfortable moral and legal questions.

00:44:28.940 And I note that I don't really see them as punitive myself.

00:44:31.360 I see them as necessary to, for Israeli safety, but okay. 0.98

00:44:35.920 I mean, maybe less necessary once Iran is taken out. 0.99

00:44:38.600 Once Iran is taken out, you don't need these same types of operations in places like Gaza anymore, because they're not as much of a threat anymore.

00:44:45.100 Yeah, absolutely.

00:44:46.600 I'd also note the almost disgusting hypocrisy on display here, which is to say that Gaza was unique in that Gaza was really only a threat to the Israeli people.

00:44:56.160 The UK, France, Germany didn't have to worry about Gazans kidnapping their people, breaking into their cities. 0.99

00:45:04.740 And so when Israel was trying to defang Gaza, they were like, oh, you horrible, horrible Jews. 1.00

00:45:11.780 But then the moment they came for a tiger that could attack them, they were like, oh, well, you know, in this case, in this case, what you're doing is necessary. 0.94

00:45:19.980 It wasn't that Gaza was toothless, it's just that it was toothless against them, so they took the opportunity to score political points with their, you know, wokies who act like no one actually ever attacks anyone or is a threat to anyone else. 0.98

00:45:35.420 Iran's counterattacks and their decline.

00:45:37.420 So I want to talk about what happened with this as well.

00:45:39.180 Iran's response to Israeli onset was swift, but ultimately limited in duration and effect.

00:45:45.720 Within hours of being struck, Iran unleashed a barrage of missiles and drones aiming at Israeli cities and military targets.

00:45:52.660 Iran's state media claimed hundreds of ballistic missiles were launched at Israel following the attack on Natazan and killing of its generals.

00:46:01.200 For several nights, missile salvos rained down on Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other areas.

00:46:07.000 So many at times, Iran's nightly missile attacks overwhelmed Israel's anti-air defenses, penetrating the dome shield.

00:46:15.140 Israeli officials reported intensive barrages, apartment blocks in Tel Aviv and Ramat Gan suffered direct hits, resulting in significant damage and fires.

00:46:23.540 In Israel, air raid sirens became a nightly routine and citizens huddled in bomb shelters as interceptor rockets streaked overhead.

00:46:32.320 Iranian missiles that evaded interception did cause casualties.

00:46:36.160 At least 24 Israelis were killed in the first wave of retaliation and dozens more were injured.

00:46:41.320 One long-range missile even reached the West Bank, landing in Hebron, a testament to Iran's ability to strike across the region. 1.00

00:46:49.180 However, after the initial fury of the first few days, Iran's direct counterattacks noticeably tapered off.

00:46:57.080 By middle of the conflict's first week, the volume of missile fire from Iran had diminished.

00:47:01.960 Several factors explain why Iran's retaliation died down so much after the early salvos.

00:47:07.420 Preemptive suppression.

00:47:09.020 Israel's opening strikes specifically targeted Iran's retaliatory capacity.

00:47:13.000 In the first 48 hours, Israel's forces struck many of Iran's missile launch sites and air defense systems.

00:47:19.540 Israel reportedly destroyed dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers across Iran.

00:47:25.920 It also hit surface-to-surface missile launchers that Iran was using to fire on Israeli cities.

00:47:32.360 This degradation of Iran's launch platforms and targeting networks likely blunted Iran's ability to sustain heavy missile fire.

00:47:41.440 Simply put, some of Iran's guns were knocked out early.

00:47:45.060 Limited arsenal or caution.

00:47:47.200 While Iran possessed thousands of missiles on paper, it may have held back from expending its full arsenal.

00:47:53.620 Firing large volleys risks depleting Iran's strategic missiles without achieving decisive effect.

00:47:58.760 Most were being intercepted or striking civilian areas, which can backfire diplomatically.

00:48:03.680 Iran might be conserving missiles in the case the war drags on or the U.S. becomes involved.

00:48:08.900 I really don't believe that at all.

00:48:11.340 I think they sent everything they had, and I think that they're lying about how many missiles they had, and we're seeing that already.

00:48:17.620 I mean, why wouldn't you hit with everything? 0.96

00:48:19.700 Really, they can't use these dumb missiles to fight back against the U.S. 0.99

00:48:23.560 They can't use these dumb missiles to fight against the land invasion. 0.99

00:48:26.940 They're really only useful for terror attacks against civilian populations. 0.99

00:48:30.420 Loss of command and coordination.

00:48:33.480 The decapitation of Iran's military leadership likely caused chaos in Iran's defensive operations.

00:48:39.180 With top generals and the IRGC commanders killed in the opening strike, Iran's response in the immediate afterness may have been uncoordinated.

00:48:46.760 Except why is it decreasing more the more they get new people in positions?

00:48:51.060 Could be trying to reserve ammunition, but I doubt it.

00:48:53.600 I think they're just running out.

00:48:55.780 Proxy retaliation fizzled.

00:48:57.820 Iran initially signaled that its regional proxies would join the fight.

00:49:01.160 For instance, a missile was fired from Yemen by the Iran-allied Husi militia landing in the West Bank.

00:49:07.440 But Iran's usual proxy options were largely unavailable or weakened.

00:49:11.660 Hezbollah and Hamas, traditionally to Iran's frontline retaliatory tools, had been badly damaged and offered little firepower in this round.

00:49:20.060 Some rockets from militias in Syria and Iraq may have been attempted, but with Assad gone and pro-Iranian militias scattered, these fronts were muted.

00:49:29.300 The lack of a proxy second front meant Iran stood relatively alone, unable to sustain a multi-front assault on Israel.

00:49:36.400 Without significant proxy attacks to complement its own missiles, Iran's offensive potential was more easily contained. 0.82

00:49:42.400 I just can't imagine how bad that felt for Iran being like, okay, guys, we've been giving you missiles for years.

00:49:48.820 You should have hundreds of thousands of stockpile.

00:49:51.480 And Hezbollah's like, yeah, we have no leadership anymore.

00:49:53.700 And Hamas is like, well, actually, we're completely under. 0.75

00:49:56.400 And the Husis are like, actually, we were mostly destroyed and our stocks were seized. 1.00

00:50:01.360 Ouch. Ouch.

00:50:03.000 You got to almost feel bad for them at this point.

00:50:04.860 Well, what stands out to me is that, one, this is really the solidification and confirmation of a clear trend, which is the nature of warfare is, you know, it's here.

00:50:31.760 It's officially charged, you know, we, yes, we still have aircraft carriers, but now we have people taking suitcases and trucks into enemy territory and doing this sort of new form of guerrilla warfare, like Amazon Prime Delivery Warfare, like at Peacemail, Ikea Furniture Assembly Warfare.

00:50:52.240 And I think that's really interesting.

00:50:55.360 What you see, too, is Iran's reaction is extremely old school. 0.77

00:50:58.980 It's we will send our missiles from our war chest and it's.

00:51:03.940 We will get our regional players to attack you, even though they have no technology or real power.

00:51:09.000 Yeah.

00:51:09.280 And I think, I mean, what you can see, I think Mossad is kind of the trendsetter.

00:51:13.360 Also, like Ukraine to a great extent, too, out of necessity and creativity of what the future of warfare is going to look like, which is what where Mossad, I think, really represents what the future of warfare is going to be, especially with AI, is that it's going to be smart.

00:51:29.120 And by the time you know it's happening, it will pretty much strategically be over.

00:51:33.060 It's checkmate before you realize.

00:51:34.480 This is checkmate in move one.

00:51:36.540 And I also say here that to me, the biggest thing that this changes, that the Ukraine situation didn't change, is Iran was operating off of Cold War logic. 0.72

00:51:46.720 It was build up less economically, less technologically developed regional allies.

00:51:52.820 And if you have enough of these, that they will be able to assist you when you go to war against one of the other big, you know, powers.

00:52:01.460 Right.

00:52:01.940 And what Israel is showing is those sorts of allies don't matter one lick.

00:52:08.860 You know, and if you look at the Cold War, you know, we tried to build up allies in, you know, Vietnam.

00:52:13.540 We tried to build up allies in Korea.

00:52:15.220 We tried to build up allies all over the world.

00:52:17.020 Right.

00:52:17.140 Like that's what all these conflicts were about.

00:52:18.740 And we fought over these allies.

00:52:20.720 Right.

00:52:20.980 Like hundreds of thousands, millions of Americans died over these allies.

00:52:25.960 Right.

00:52:26.340 And what we're seeing in this new ecosystem is those types of allies don't matter at all.

00:52:31.800 You know, and that's what Israel showed, that one little country can wipe out every one of those allies you care about. 0.87

00:52:38.200 And that the only allies that matter are the ones who are technologically capable.

00:52:42.440 Yeah.

00:52:43.580 Yeah.

00:52:44.320 And this is why I also say it's useful for the United States to invest in its relationship with Israel because of the technologically capable

00:52:50.600 and economically productive countries.

00:52:52.540 It is the only one with an above replacement fertility rate, which means it's one of the only ones that's going to matter, you know, intergenerationally speaking.

00:52:59.180 Yeah.

00:52:59.400 Well, and again, I mean, I think that this could be a huge opportunity for Iran.

00:53:06.440 Like if they experience a regime change, at least we get to roll the dice again for Iran, where I feel like we are at a point of multidimensional failure here. 0.82

00:53:16.620 We're at a point of religious failure, as you covered.

00:53:18.700 You know, they're not like they're having a crisis of faith.

00:53:21.220 We're seeing huge detraction from from Islam in practice in Iran.

00:53:24.540 We're seeing declining birth rates.

00:53:27.000 We're seeing what seems to be a fairly unhappy populace and now an unstable government.

00:53:31.960 Like, let's give it another roll of the dice.

00:53:34.180 Like, maybe we can save Iran.

00:53:36.260 I think I saw someone post something like, you know, Cyrus freed the Jews.

00:53:41.060 Now the Jews will free the Persians. 1.00

00:53:43.560 Like they're going to they're going to pay it forward or no pay it back.

00:53:47.540 Return the favor delayed.

00:53:49.140 And maybe I mean, that's true.

00:53:50.800 I'd like I I don't think that Israel or choose ever wanted like animosity toward.

00:53:59.640 Well, this is what I would say that the Jews should now go to Saudi Arabia and say money, please. 1.00

00:54:07.800 We got rid of your geopolitical rival money, please.

00:54:12.420 And if Saudi Arabia doesn't go to them, they need to go. 0.99

00:54:14.840 As I said, even though even though Turkey has said anti-Semitic stuff in the past, I know people think that they would never be friends.

00:54:21.440 But I actually think Turkey is the number one desirable ally in the region for Israel long term.

00:54:28.460 You got to go to Israel and be like, hey, let's be friends.

00:54:30.620 You got those great birectors.

00:54:32.780 You know, they're they're also fairly technologically competent, also a diversified economy.

00:54:38.520 But we'll see.

00:54:39.300 We'll see.

00:54:39.740 Also, they don't know how to manage money.

00:54:41.980 Look at their look at their banking system right now. 0.98

00:54:43.880 Just be like, you need a few Jews. 1.00

00:54:45.640 You need someone who can handle usury. 0.96

00:54:47.440 Just put all this in on us.

00:54:49.380 You know, we'll go back to a medieval system here.

00:54:51.800 But anyway, to continue here.

00:54:53.700 Is Iran spent now or does Tehran have any cards left?

00:54:58.900 With its generals gone, its nuclear sites burning and its missile offensive petering out.

00:55:05.100 Observer, they're asking whether Iran has effectively been spent as a fighting force in this conflict.

00:55:09.480 And what options remain for the Islamic Republic?

00:55:12.460 There is no doubt that Iran has taken a severe beating. 0.99

00:55:15.120 The war so far has left Iran's military badly decapitated and its strategic program set back by years.

00:55:20.560 Yet it would be premature to count Iran out entirely.

00:55:23.740 The Iranian regime still has significant cards left to play. 0.78

00:55:27.260 Though each comes with high risk.

00:55:31.340 Missile reserves.

00:55:32.260 Iran likely still holds a vast reserve of missile and rockets.

00:55:37.600 U.S. analysts estimate Iran holds thousands of missiles capable of striking Israel.

00:55:43.140 If cornered, Iran could choose to launch larger salvos and more advanced missiles in future rounds of fighting. 0.50

00:55:50.420 I don't believe that.

00:55:52.120 I just don't.

00:55:52.900 They'd be sending them already.

00:55:53.800 One, because a lot of that infrastructure was attacked by Israel.

00:55:58.080 Yeah, where that stuff was stored was attacked on day one.

00:56:01.400 That's why they ran out so quickly.

00:56:03.440 Asymmetric warfare.

00:56:05.420 Iran excels in irregular tactics. 0.98

00:56:07.660 Even as its conventional options narrowed, Tehran could turn to cyber attacks, convert sabotage, and global terrorism as a way to hit back. 0.54

00:56:15.620 Iran or proxy hackers might try to disrupt Israeli infrastructure or Western financial systems.

00:56:20.880 Iran operatives could attempt attacks on Israel or Jewish targets abroad.

00:56:25.380 Past incidents like the 1990s Buenos Aires bombings linked to Hezbollah show Iran's willingness to use terror as a pressure tool.

00:56:32.880 Already, there are concerns that Iranian agents could target Israeli embassies or soft targets in third countries in retaliation.

00:56:40.220 Such shadowy responses don't win battles, but they keep Iran in the game by raising the cost for Israel and its supporters in a deniable way. 0.88

00:56:48.860 I don't see that as mattering either. 0.99

00:56:50.500 Israel doesn't care about your dumb terrorist attacks. 0.99

00:56:53.780 They're not like the U.S. where we panic because you blew up a bus. 0.99

00:56:58.120 Israel's used to that stuff, and they're basically carrying this out on their own. 0.96

00:57:02.180 You can try to attack U.S. and French buses, but that's just going to galvanize them more to be pro-Israel because they don't even see themselves as in this fight right now. 0.99

00:57:10.140 So it would be incredibly stupid.

00:57:11.340 Israel has done a really smart maneuver by not asking for help from other players because it just allows Iran to potentially try to do terrorism on them and then force them into Israel's hands. 0.99

00:57:22.680 Maritime front.

00:57:23.540 Iran could threaten the vital oil shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf, specifically the Strait of Hormuz, which is what we've heard about a lot recently, through which a large share of the world's oil transits.

00:57:36.740 The IRGC Navy could harass or attack tankers or lay mines, creating a global economic shock.

00:57:44.160 This oil weapon is a classic card Iran holds. 0.99

00:57:46.980 Indeed, oil prices spiked after the war began on a fear Iran might widen the conflict to the Gulf.

00:57:52.740 Though so far, no major incident at sea has occurred.

00:57:55.680 Because again, Iran doesn't want to draw in other players.

00:57:58.240 Right now, it's them versus Israel. 0.96

00:57:59.620 If they widen it there, it's them versus everyone.

00:58:03.000 Yeah, and no one actually wants them to get nuclear weapons.

00:58:08.740 No one wants that.

00:58:10.560 Well, I mean, if they choke Hormuz, the U.S. is going to get involved immediately, at least was in that context.

00:58:18.740 And the problem is, and what they know now from what's happening in Russia, is their big battleships are basically pointless from the perspective of modern warfare.

00:58:27.400 Russians were taken down by, you know, AI-controlled jet skis with bombs attached to them.

00:58:33.600 Like, there's very little you can do.

00:58:35.420 When you look at the cost of these big, giant ships, you know, you buy a few hundred jet skis, you're talking like 0.00000001% to, like, strap them with bombs in an AI.

00:58:53.460 You could sit on a whole swarm and there's nothing they can do.

00:58:55.740 Eventually, they're going down.

00:58:57.980 And it basically means that these are all just paper tigers for them, right?

00:59:01.840 Like, they can't actually blockade the strait.

00:59:05.060 And I'm sure the U.S. would love to try out some of its new weapons that it has built with inspiration from the Ukrainian war.

00:59:11.760 Yeah.

00:59:12.640 Really?

00:59:13.240 No, honestly, this is so funny.

00:59:14.500 If Iran does try to blockade with these legacy weapons that they have, like these big old battlecruisers, it's like every weapons testing company right now is, like, drooling for them to do that.

00:59:25.580 So they can use their weapons to show how awesome they are on basically a feckless and incompetent and witless enemy to be like, look, we can grow up a few battleships.

00:59:34.900 Why don't you buy from Target.ai?

00:59:37.980 Proxy military resurgence.

00:59:41.480 While Iran's main proxies are down, they are not entirely out.

00:59:45.500 Remnants of Hezbollah, not really.

00:59:47.440 Iraqi Shia's militias, I mean, kind of.

00:59:51.060 Or the Hussies in Yemen, oh, come on, could be activated in a more coordinated way if Iran chooses.

00:59:56.460 They've been trying, they've been pulling out all the stops for a while now.

00:59:59.920 I mean, they, at some point, you're going to get worn down.

01:00:03.340 Yeah.

01:00:03.540 For example, the Hussies have already signaled readiness to strike Israel or even shipping targets on Iran's behalf. 0.60

01:00:09.600 In Iraq, Iran-linked militias could target U.S. bases, as they have occasionally done in the past, trying to complementate America's posture.

01:00:18.680 No, that would just cause America to become involved. 0.81

01:00:21.540 You don't want that.

01:00:23.000 You don't want us to be more involved than we are, especially with Trump saying that, look, okay, so I should explain why America getting involved matters so much.

01:00:30.620 Israel, as it is said, cannot hit the underground labs where nuclear weapons are being refined or developed right now.

01:00:37.780 America easily can.

01:00:39.800 We have the types of jets that can carry bunker buster bombs, and Israel doesn't.

01:00:45.160 They don't have the bombs.

01:00:46.260 They don't have the jets.

01:00:47.460 Like, that's the thing.

01:00:48.500 They should, but we do, and we've got a lot of them.

01:00:52.460 Basically, infinite amount from a global perspective.

01:00:56.240 I don't care how under a mountain you are.

01:00:58.520 That mountain will be dust if you piss us off enough.

01:01:02.720 Next, diplomatic leverage.

01:01:05.160 Russia and China.

01:01:06.740 No.

01:01:07.620 No.

01:01:08.060 I'm not even going to read that.

01:01:08.960 That's pointless.

01:01:09.700 Russia and China are not coming to save you, Iran.

01:01:12.240 I'm sorry.

01:01:12.680 Russia is heavily involved in its own war right now, and China is right now looking to go to war with, like, you know, Taiwan. 0.99

01:01:23.880 They do not want to waste a bunch of forces on your dumb, dumb, dumb instigation. 0.98

01:01:30.040 They don't necessarily benefit from Iran going off, making things. 0.99

01:01:36.380 No, but Russia and China are actually going to be put on a significant back foot because of this.

01:01:41.460 If Iran is dealt with as well as their entire, you know, axis of supporters, Russia and China have lost a major geopolitical ally in the region. 0.56

01:01:51.320 And basically, it moves the entire Middle East, at least the parts of it that matter, into the United States' hands. 0.97

01:01:58.580 Wow.

01:01:59.360 In a big way.

01:02:00.500 Well, then, aren't you arguing that they have a really good reason to get into this?

01:02:08.680 Who has a region?

01:02:09.660 No, they've got no reason.

01:02:10.660 I mean, they've got a reason, like, technically, but, like, not actually on – like, no one would decide it, even though they know they're going to lose a lot of power because of it.

01:02:18.940 Like, the amount of power that they'll lose in the region is not worth the risk that they take on by getting involved?

01:02:27.640 Yeah.

01:02:28.360 Okay.

01:02:29.140 That makes sense.

01:02:30.860 I mean, keep in mind if Russia cannot get involved, so it's really just a question of China.

01:02:36.500 If China attempts to get involved, they will make a lifelong enemy of the Saudis.

01:02:41.280 China does not want to make a lifelong enemy of the Saudis.

01:02:44.240 They would prefer to stay neutral as all of this plays out.

01:02:47.120 That is one thing the Chinese don't want to do at this point, and the Saudis have likely already communicated that to them.

01:02:52.760 They're like, let it play out, I'm sure.

01:02:56.280 And I'm pretty sure the Saudis, when you look at their diplomatic network, have a lot more people close to people in position of power in China than the Iranians do.

01:03:04.680 Yeah, fair.

01:03:05.420 I'm pretty sure.

01:03:35.420 In fact, some Iranians, even regime critics, may unify in the face of an external attack, at least temporarily, which could shore up the regime, as happened during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

01:03:49.320 On the other hand, the regime's legitimacy is already eroding, and a humiliating military defeat could spark intense anger.

01:03:57.320 The severe economic strain, coupled with public shock of seeing iconic generals killed and key sites in flames, might embolden opposition factions.

01:04:05.940 If street protests were to explode again, as they did in 2022, the Revolutionary Guards may be too overstretched or demoralized to contain them.

01:04:14.260 In a worst-case scenario for Tehran, the combination of military decapitation and popular uprising could threaten the country of the Islamic Republic.

01:04:22.020 Now, I just wanted to go to the thing I talked about at the beginning here, because I think it's really important to go over, because I was so disappointed in ethical historical knowledge, where he's like, Iran calls America the great Satan, or at least calls it still the great Satan because of our alliance with Israel. 0.77

01:04:37.960 And I was like, that is not true.

01:04:39.560 If anything, it's hostile to Israel because of us.

01:04:41.600 So, first, why did Iran start calling us the great Satan?

01:04:46.560 It was because we led a coup to overthrow a democratic elected government and try to reinstate a monarch.

01:04:54.480 And the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew democratically elected Prime Minister Mohamed Masahadai and reinstated the Shah is the core historical grievance that led to this anti-US ideology.

01:05:10.440 The term great Satan was coined after the 1979 revolution, but it draws moral legitimacy from this particular event.

01:05:19.820 Now, Iran has showed itself open, as I mentioned, Iran in the past has shown itself open to actually normalizing relationships with Israel and the United States.

01:05:30.200 I pointed out that it cares much, much more about Saudi Arabia than it cares about us or Israel.

01:05:36.220 We are distant afterthoughts in its mind compared to Saudi Arabia.

01:05:39.440 Everything it does to Israel, it does to shore up support among its subordinates, and we'll get to why that's important to them. 0.70

01:05:48.000 But Israel doesn't matter, and its subordinates don't matter if Saudi Arabia can be checked. 0.91

01:05:53.360 Oh.

01:05:54.420 So, if they had some other means of feeling not threatened by Saudi Arabia, you think they'd just drop all this? 0.89

01:06:00.680 Absolutely.

01:06:01.500 And they've signaled it in the past.

01:06:02.900 So, in the past, they've shown themselves open to normalizing relations with both Israel and the U.S.,

01:06:08.920 specifically in 1986 during the Iran-Contra affair, quiet cooperation between the U.S. behind the scenes.

01:06:14.200 In 2001 to 2003, post-9-11, Iran cooperated with the U.S. against the Taliban and offered a grand bargain to normalize ties.

01:06:22.660 The Bush administration ignored it.

01:06:24.620 2013 to 2015, GCPOA era.

01:06:28.640 Under President Rouhani, real diplomatic engagement with the U.S. hints at a pragmatic regional realignment.

01:06:34.740 So, this isn't, like, a one-time thing.

01:06:36.540 It's something they wanted over and over and over and over again.

01:06:40.160 This isn't a flight of fancy of one ruler or anything like that.

01:06:43.140 Iran does not care about Israel. 0.68

01:06:45.180 In the same way that, like, they care a little bit in terms of how it makes them look as a regional power player.

01:06:49.940 Same way that, like, you know, Saudi Arabia does or Egypt does.

01:06:53.340 But at the end of the day, like, as we showed with the Gaza march, like, the Egyptian government cares so little about the public perception compared to, like, their own safety when it comes to Gaza.

01:07:02.560 And they're just like, yeah, okay, like, maybe 96% of people support it.

01:07:06.940 Whatever.

01:07:07.660 You're not getting through.

01:07:10.100 So, Iran does not hate us because of our alliance with Israel.

01:07:13.100 It hates us because of our alliance with Saudi Arabia. 1.00

01:07:17.360 And it hates Israel because they align with us. 0.99

01:07:22.900 That's one of the reasons.

01:07:23.920 I will note, they do dislike them for religious reasons in the same way Saudis dislike them for religious reasons.

01:07:29.080 But, apparently, that's very overcomable for a lot of Muslims. 1.00

01:07:32.560 Especially wealthy Muslims, as I've found in my history.

01:07:35.880 Wealthy Muslims are very quick to forgive the Jews when they start having to do finance and business interactions. 0.99

01:07:41.040 In fact, I don't know any.

01:07:42.600 I have a lot of Muslim friends.

01:07:44.340 And I don't know any of them who have an ounce of anti-Semitism in them.

01:07:48.280 But it's because, you know, they've got lots of Jewish financial friends.

01:07:52.040 I know that's a horrible stereotype, but that's why.

01:07:54.360 They're like, hey, I know all my Jews from work. 0.97

01:07:57.460 You know, what are you talking about?

01:07:58.460 Now, here I would note something.

01:08:01.260 Iran's 1979 revolution established a Shia siocracy defined in opposition to Western imperialism and, quote-unquote, Zionism.

01:08:10.060 Hating Israel became a core part of the regime's identity.

01:08:12.840 So, a revolutionary posture against what they call the, quote-unquote, Western colonial project.

01:08:19.580 And they're not wrong.

01:08:20.440 There is a Western colonial project in the region.

01:08:22.520 I understand why they would.

01:08:23.440 I've actually been on Iran State TV a number of times.

01:08:25.900 It may surprise people.

01:08:27.300 Wait, when?

01:08:28.860 Yes, actually.

01:08:29.900 Sorry.

01:08:30.220 All those random interviews you've done.

01:08:31.960 Yes.

01:08:32.360 Yes, I've done interviews where I rail against the urban monoculture and I wail against Western cultural imperialism.

01:08:41.460 And they love it because in that way, our views are aligned.

01:08:45.660 But, you know, and I'm not, like, doing this for money or something.

01:08:48.520 You know, you guys know me.

01:08:49.660 I hate the urban monoculture.

01:08:51.540 I'm like, yeah, you're right.

01:08:52.540 They shouldn't be trying to force their weird, you know, like, you know, colonist flag, which is what we call the progress flag values on you guys.

01:09:01.300 Like, you guys, that's not your culture.

01:09:03.480 You don't need to obey them.

01:09:05.440 But what's notable here is if you look at the Saudi coalition versus the Iranian coalition, they both built their coalition on different things.

01:09:14.820 The Saudis built it on economics, religious similarities, and a sort of pragmatism.

01:09:24.860 And I'm going to put a map on screen here so you can see it of the Iranian, the quote-unquote, axis of resistance.

01:09:29.960 This is Hezbollah, Assad, and Iraqi militias, right? 0.62

01:09:33.640 But then you've also got, obviously, the daddy war bucks of it all, which is Qatar, which to me has always seemed like the odd one out, but whatever. 0.95

01:09:40.900 But on this map, you can see the dark red is Iran.

01:09:43.020 The dark blue is Saudi Arabia.

01:09:45.720 Light blue is Saudi Arabia's allies.

01:09:47.980 And light red is Iran's allies. 0.91

01:09:50.520 Okay.

01:09:50.740 And then you've got the neutral ones, right?

01:09:53.580 And then we're going to go to the next one here, which is the GDP per capita of each of these countries.

01:09:58.520 Oh.

01:09:59.040 And so I'll put them both on screen here so you can see them next to each other.

01:10:01.860 But what you will see is, largely speaking, the Saudi Arabian allies have a high GDP per capita, and the Iranian allies have a low GDP per capita.

01:10:12.380 Very, you know, you look at something like Saudi Arabia at $32,900 per year.

01:10:18.660 UAE, $49,600 per year.

01:10:21.360 Let's look at the Iranian allies.

01:10:23.660 Well, Iran itself is $5K per year.

01:10:25.900 Yemen is $465 per year.

01:10:29.100 We've got, oh, who else do we have?

01:10:31.180 Iraq, $5.9K per year.

01:10:33.700 We've got Syria. 0.88

01:10:34.980 We don't even know what that is.

01:10:36.160 Yeah.

01:10:36.520 Like, it's not going to, well, we've got to, hold on, we've got to.

01:10:38.560 Well, this is, again, I just feel like there's this mean girl dynamic where, in many cases, Iran is preying upon populations that kind of can't say no to the money and the support. 0.92

01:10:50.060 But then those populations are being further ruined, degraded, made dangerous and radicalized, and not more economically productive by this support.

01:11:01.000 And it's really screwed up.

01:11:03.600 And the final thing I'll note here is for those who are like, well, I don't want a ground war with this region.

01:11:07.360 Don't worry, you're not going to get one.

01:11:09.540 Well, and I think what we're, again, the whole thing is ground wars.

01:11:14.080 Or a thing of the past.

01:11:15.560 We gained nothing from grabbing territory in Iran.

01:11:19.140 This isn't like historical battles that we've seen where it's like we want to occupy.

01:11:23.040 Because after the success of McCarthyism, General McCarthy, right, and he rebuilt all the countries that we destroyed in the Second World War, whether it was Germany or Japan, et cetera. 0.64

01:11:32.800 And everyone was like, oh, you could just rebuild countries.

01:11:34.960 That's great.

01:11:35.520 Let's rebuild them into great Western allies.

01:11:37.200 And then we were, oh, well, that really only worked because we were dealing with countries like Germany and Japan.

01:11:42.160 You can't do that with a country like Iraq. 1.00

01:11:44.080 You can't do that with a country like Afghanistan. 1.00

01:11:45.840 You can't do that with a country like, you know, actually, you maybe can with a country like Iran. 1.00

01:11:50.120 But generally, you know, they're like, we're not going to try it, you know.

01:11:53.560 And so you don't have this belief anymore.

01:11:56.280 Now it's just about let's beat them into the dirt because they've got nothing we want. 0.96

01:12:00.120 And we'll beat them down so hard that they won't stand up again for a long time. 0.95

01:12:04.760 Maybe they can restructure the country theirself in their own way, but we're not going to get involved.

01:12:08.700 And it's not just, I mean, like Israel has no desire to control Iran, like no desire.

01:12:15.760 They have no desire to put on the ground. 0.98

01:12:17.340 They just wanted them to pay attention to their darn sanctions. 0.99

01:12:20.400 And they weren't going to do that without being spanked. 1.00

01:12:25.540 There you have it, basically.

01:12:27.100 And so right now, yeah, I'm sort of shocked that we're in this timeline, but I will say

01:12:33.340 that the world is a dramatically safer place this week than it was two weeks ago.

01:12:38.780 Yeah, yeah.

01:12:40.080 Things felt hopeless with Iran for so long because so many, there was so much flip-flopping around 1.00

01:12:48.560 how they were dealt with geopolitically that it got to the point where kind of like with

01:12:52.440 a kid that was not punished or shown consistent discipline, we essentially trained around like,

01:13:02.220 yeah, nothing's really going to happen if you just keep going, like, go ahead.

01:13:07.800 You know, what are we going to do?

01:13:09.020 You know, maybe we'll change our mind.

01:13:11.100 Maybe we won't sanction you as much.

01:13:12.640 Maybe we'll, you know, release funds to you.

01:13:14.900 So it felt so hopeless.

01:13:16.820 Like, they had learned that they could just go ahead and Israel very strategically put

01:13:26.040 its foot down in another one of those brilliant strategic moves that clearly involved years

01:13:31.260 of planning.

01:13:33.040 And yeah.

01:13:35.340 And likely prevented a larger conflict in the region.

01:13:38.500 I wonder, you know, I used to be under the impression that the United States government

01:13:42.360 was doing things like this, and maybe they are.

01:13:44.240 But now I'm starting to doubt that because Mossad keeps doing things like this, and it

01:13:51.560 comes out, and you see, and it's like, whoa, I can't believe that you, you know, built these

01:13:55.980 fake companies and distributed these papers.

01:13:58.780 And like, we just don't hear about any amazing coups.

01:14:04.660 Well, no, it's because our intelligence services have been completely taken over by the woke mind

01:14:08.780 virus, as we keep seeing and hearing.

01:14:11.220 They are completely ineffective now and just dedicated to spreading wokeness.

01:14:16.180 Yeah, I mean, maybe, I mean, I would like to think that we are doing cool things like

01:14:22.260 that.

01:14:22.780 No, they look, they've done great things.

01:14:24.760 Hey, someone, they tried to assassinate Donald Trump twice already that like in just the past

01:14:29.340 couple years.

01:14:30.220 Like, that's pretty impressive.

01:14:32.500 Two attempted assassination attempts against a presidential candidate, and they still haven't

01:14:37.380 been shut down.

01:14:39.400 Come on.

01:14:40.320 Yeah, well, there was this, you should probably take this out.

01:14:44.180 I don't know.

01:14:44.640 I need to, I need to double check it.

01:14:45.960 You should probably double check it.

01:14:47.140 But I, you know, I have like a news alert for Dan Driscoll, because I want to see what

01:14:50.580 he's up to.

01:14:51.220 My secretary of the army.

01:14:52.400 And there was this one.

01:14:52.980 He's one of our friends.

01:14:53.800 Anyway, continue.

01:14:54.440 News article that came out that was like, yeah, in this interview he was doing, just

01:14:59.440 randomly, he mentioned that he'd just spoken on the phone with someone on the army

01:15:03.200 who is on the moon.

01:15:05.220 And then he quickly changed the subject.

01:15:08.500 Wait, what?

01:15:09.160 I know.

01:15:10.440 And so I was like, I just want that to be a troll.

01:15:12.800 I want it to not be real.

01:15:13.600 I know, I know.

01:15:14.080 Like, so like, yeah, there are two really great scenarios in this.

01:15:17.200 Like, there are three outcomes here, right?

01:15:18.580 Like, one is just, this was misunderstood, or he's really sleep deprived and like meant

01:15:23.300 to say something else.

01:15:24.380 Like on the moon project, like a project, you know, to bring us back to the moon, you know,

01:15:29.000 like he just, it was not articulated correctly.

01:15:31.320 And he's been under a lot of stress.

01:15:33.500 The other scenario is, it's true.

01:15:35.680 And he accidentally slipped it.

01:15:37.100 And the other scenario is that he's trolling.

01:15:39.780 And those are two both almost equally amazing scenarios.

01:15:43.720 Like, the trolling is fantastic.

01:15:44.540 I could be secretary of the army, so I could, I'd be like, oh God, I was just on the call

01:15:48.220 with the aliens.

01:15:49.140 And oh, sorry.

01:15:49.640 I meant like illegal aliens. 0.97

01:15:50.720 The illegal aliens. 0.98

01:15:51.860 The illegal aliens. 1.00

01:15:53.140 Just troll. 1.00

01:15:54.400 Yeah. 0.64

01:15:55.240 Yeah.

01:15:55.960 But I mean, like random things like that make me sometimes think like, oh, maybe we,

01:16:00.380 maybe, maybe, you know, I mean, considering all the money we have.

01:16:06.160 This is the way we lay it out.

01:16:07.360 You got to be like, oh God, I'm sorry.

01:16:08.640 I, I've been, I spent all day being berated by the aliens and the illegal aliens.

01:16:14.780 You got to have it in a way where it wouldn't make sense of unless you've mentioned in the

01:16:17.760 first way.

01:16:18.740 I just practiced that all day, getting ready for this.

01:16:24.000 Yeah.

01:16:24.600 I mean, yeah, but I mean, it's clear to me that this, I mean, even if the,

01:16:30.360 United States government can't get its act together to do really cool things like this

01:16:33.660 now, I do think that at least, hopefully a sufficient proportion of the U.S. government

01:16:40.880 is going to adopt AI and AI will start doing cool things like this, even if we can't.

01:16:47.060 So hopefully we'll shape up, but it, I do feel a little humiliated and embarrassed that

01:16:52.440 we're not pulling off really cool things like Mossad is.

01:16:55.760 Well, the U.S. would never do, we have never ever tried to like, I mean, the way that

01:17:00.080 they're going into this is like, let's just bomb this country into the dirt.

01:17:02.860 That's not the way the U.S. does things these days.

01:17:05.400 And it is the way we should do things going forward.

01:17:07.540 It is.

01:17:07.780 You don't want to protract.

01:17:09.220 You don't want to have a lot of people on the ground.

01:17:11.080 You don't, I mean, also like there's so much more collateral damage when you have this.

01:17:15.600 What I also like about the way they're doing it is they're not, sorry, bombing them into

01:17:18.520 the dirt is the wrong word.

01:17:19.420 They're not like firebombing them or anything like that.

01:17:21.800 No, they're strategically taking them out.

01:17:24.140 Yeah.

01:17:24.320 They're strategically taking out every aspect of the country that they don't like without focusing on

01:17:28.080 the industry or anything like that.

01:17:29.980 But I think that that is really what we should be doing in wars going forward.

01:17:34.920 That is what a war should look like. 0.98

01:17:36.540 When we have our automated drone swarms, they shouldn't go in and kill, you know, just like

01:17:40.500 every civilian where they should go in and we should be like, okay, eliminate this person, 1.00

01:17:44.400 this person, this person, this person, and destroy all these buildings. 0.99

01:17:47.940 Yeah.

01:17:48.300 Well, and I mean, what I think we will see over time is there will also be just like how,

01:17:55.360 like sort of the Russian way is, is some kind of strategic poison or nerve agent. 0.66

01:18:00.840 We'll see more strategic genetically targeted poisons and stuff that like literally is, you

01:18:08.820 know, made for this one person based on a DNA sample we've picked up from their visit at

01:18:13.300 this one conference.

01:18:14.020 And, you know, they'll be taken out that way or they'll be taken out by drones, like you

01:18:18.580 said.

01:18:19.240 But yeah, warfare is different.

01:18:22.180 And it's really interesting to see the, the asymmetric warfare taking place now of like

01:18:25.900 old school versus new school and how it's, how it's playing out.

01:18:30.020 But yeah, I mean, I don't like any, any sort of conflict or innocent people are dying.

01:18:36.600 All of this is horrible.

01:18:37.360 But at the same time, when I think about the untold suffering that may have been, may very

01:18:44.480 well have been prevented by this action, I'm just thrilled because it's very scary what

01:18:49.400 Iran has been doing. 0.98

01:18:50.500 So thanks for the detailed.

01:18:54.060 Is that not the most detailed breakdown you've heard yet so far?

01:18:57.580 Yeah.

01:18:58.160 I mean, well, cause all we're getting, and I mean, especially in the media too, there's

01:19:01.960 a lot of people that want to make Israel look bad.

01:19:04.380 They want to make the U.S. look bad for its involvement.

01:19:06.920 They're only talking very myopically about, well, this U.S. official said this.

01:19:11.980 And like the U.S. doesn't seem to be aligned on its reaction to this.

01:19:14.760 And like that kind of reporting doesn't matter.

01:19:17.300 Who cares?

01:19:17.860 Or it'll be like, oh, this person died or this person died.

01:19:20.220 And it's like, you don't hear it all at once.

01:19:21.860 You're not like, wow.

01:19:21.960 Yeah.

01:19:22.080 And like, what does it mean strategically for the country?

01:19:24.460 And like, what, what, what is, what is the bigger picture here?

01:19:27.120 And what's going to happen with allies in the region?

01:19:29.540 So yeah.

01:19:31.220 Yeah.

01:19:31.520 The, the high school clique dynamics of the Middle East shifting.

01:19:36.420 Who's going to be the new queen bee? 1.00

01:19:37.740 Who knows?

01:19:38.780 No.

01:19:39.180 We shall see.

01:19:39.960 I, as I've told you, it's Turkey.

01:19:41.700 It's Turkey.

01:19:42.620 Turkey, eh?

01:19:43.920 Turkey, eh?

01:19:44.500 Turkey, eh?

01:19:45.160 All right, Simone, it is, well, obviously Israel is going to be way more important after 0.79

01:19:49.300 this.

01:19:52.900 They've shown that if you come at them, they may wait a while.

01:20:00.000 They may take some hits.

01:20:02.000 Yeah.

01:20:02.160 They're, they're ready.

01:20:02.780 You're like that nerd that they're like that nerd that you bully in high school who eventually

01:20:07.040 you wish, you wish you never even encountered them.

01:20:11.120 No, it reminds me of the nerd from the Billy Madison or whatever, where he has the list of 0.99

01:20:16.280 everyone he plans to eventually kill, like a complete psycho. 0.90

01:20:19.660 I'm like, I know Israel has one of those lists somewhere. 0.99

01:20:31.360 They're like the dwarves. 1.00

01:20:32.320 I always joke about that, like with the book of grudges, which I always thought was probably

01:20:37.280 like an anti-Semitic stereotype. 0.97

01:20:38.560 Our enemies, cowards, hiding in the deepest, darkest places. 1.00

01:20:46.900 Fools. 1.00

01:20:47.500 Every wrong is recorded. 1.00

01:20:53.560 Every slight against us.

01:20:56.240 Page after page.

01:20:59.360 One wrong put right.

01:21:03.220 But the great book of grudges

01:21:05.740 remains full.

01:21:10.500 Like, anyway, love you to death, Simone.

01:21:15.520 Do you want to try to do one more episode or not?

01:21:17.540 I do.

01:21:18.000 I love talking.

01:21:18.780 All right.

01:21:19.000 I got another one ready.

01:21:20.020 Send the one on who's funding no kings.

01:21:22.460 I already did.

01:21:23.780 I have the weirdest pregnancy craving for bananas and peanut butter.

01:21:29.140 So I've just been knocking them back.

01:21:32.540 And I think I knocked back a few too many.

01:21:34.760 I was the same this morning when you gave me, because I'm beginning to feel better, the

01:21:39.580 big slushy.

01:21:40.900 Oh, yeah.

01:21:42.460 Giant.

01:21:43.060 And I'm like, now I'm like, I don't need dinner.

01:21:45.460 That was too much.

01:21:46.060 Yeah.

01:21:46.380 Well, we're both.

01:21:48.380 I mean, at least it's moderately healthy foods.

01:21:51.920 So that's good.

01:21:53.420 I mean, I don't want to eat only healthy foods.

01:21:55.100 I feel like I can drink beer again, which I'm excited about.

01:21:57.660 Yeah.

01:21:58.200 I mean, at least you can drink again.

01:22:02.240 After days of sipping on titty juice.

01:22:06.540 Poor thing.

01:22:08.040 I don't know how you survived that.

01:22:09.780 Milk.

01:22:10.460 I drink milk primarily when I'm feeling sick.

01:22:14.360 Just funny.

01:22:14.960 I don't know.

01:22:15.300 When I was raised, I was sort of told by my parents that.

01:22:19.180 Oh, there's this weird, like magical thinking thing where people think that milk leads to

01:22:23.460 more mucus and it doesn't.

01:22:25.680 Yeah.

01:22:26.580 It's like actually one of the better things you can drink when you're sick.

01:22:29.900 Sympathetic magic nonsense.

01:22:31.160 Yeah, it's sympathetic because it looks like mucus.

01:22:34.340 It does not look like mucus.

01:22:36.160 Milk does not look like mucus.

01:22:37.860 No, people look at it and they're like, this looks like what could create mucus, right?

01:22:43.180 Like it's a thick biological liquid.

01:22:46.740 And so they think, oh, you drink a lot of this thick, creamy biological liquid.

01:22:50.100 You're going to create more thick, creamy biological liquid.

01:22:52.620 But the reality is, is that milk is actually fairly well nutritionally balanced in terms

01:22:59.520 of giving you a lot of what you need if you're otherwise queasy and you can't keep

01:23:03.980 down solid foods.

01:23:05.380 I mean, it's not everything, but it's a lot of it.

01:23:08.100 It's great.

01:23:09.280 Yeah.

01:23:09.640 I'm of the opinion that it is fantastic.

01:23:11.940 Okay, you butt heads, what's happening?

01:23:15.260 It's right there.

01:23:16.900 You see?

01:23:20.220 How did you get up there?

01:23:22.520 I was doing something.

01:23:25.440 He was jumping so high up.

01:23:27.620 And then he hit the roof.

01:23:28.700 No one just climbed up here.

01:23:30.380 Yes, you find the music out.

01:23:32.260 And I just...

01:23:33.180 He was keep climbing music like that.

01:23:35.940 I keep climbing music like that.

01:23:38.940 Stay away.

01:23:42.220 Stay away.

01:23:42.880 I'm going to get you done. 0.99

01:23:43.620 I'm looking at your butt rack. 0.99

01:23:45.860 Stop it. 0.99

01:23:46.900 I'm looking at your butt rack. 0.99

01:23:49.220 Stop it and go to bed. 0.99

01:23:50.960 Go to bed.

01:23:52.060 Go to bed.

01:23:52.560 Go to bed.

01:23:52.960 You guys sure to bed?

01:23:53.980 You go to bed, okay?

01:23:54.920 Or I have to send you back to your room, okay?

01:23:57.700 You got to be calm, okay?

01:23:59.120 Can you do that?

01:24:00.320 Yeah.

01:24:00.520 I don't want to go to sleep.

01:24:07.180 I don't want to go to sleep.

Based Camp - June 19, 2025

Israel Decapitated Iran： A Full Recap

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