Based Camp - Michael Gibson on The End of Academia and What's Next

00:00:00.000 I'm super excited for this.

00:00:02.040 Hello, and welcome to another episode of Basecamp, where today we have a very special guest and

00:00:06.760 someone who's writing I really enjoy, but also whose work I probably enjoy even more,

00:00:10.340 Michael Gibson.

00:00:11.420 You probably, if you've heard of Michael, have heard of him because of his book, Paper

00:00:15.360 Belt on Fire.

00:00:16.700 However, he's in other circles, much more well known for being the co-founder of 1517,

00:00:22.560 a very unique type of venture capital fund that doesn't just focus on sort of already

00:00:26.760 proven older entrepreneurs, but rather really young people.

00:00:30.000 They are investing in people like pre-college.

00:00:32.880 It's amazing.

00:00:34.100 We're going to talk about all these things, but in this conversation, we are really hoping

00:00:38.140 to dive into his book, which I read as soon as an audio book was available, Paper Belt

00:00:42.720 on Fire, which really aligns with a lot of the stuff that we're saying is much more eloquently

00:00:48.520 written than the way we would write it.

00:00:50.020 It's sort of a mixture of philosophy, prognostication, but also like personal history and history of

00:00:56.560 the 1517 fund, which is absolutely fascinating.

00:00:59.140 So we're really excited to talk with you about it.

00:01:02.080 Would you like to know more?

00:01:03.620 Okay.

00:01:04.000 Yeah.

00:01:04.180 Thanks for having me on.

00:01:05.620 And, you know, thanks for the kind words as well, both about, you know, whatever my

00:01:09.080 writing style, but also about what we're doing.

00:01:12.460 Yeah.

00:01:12.940 The book, I maybe, how would I boil it down?

00:01:16.960 It's something like, because why would I have memoir in philosophy and then, you know, behind

00:01:22.840 the scenes account of venture capital and backing young people?

00:01:26.580 I think, I think it comes down to strange people do strange things.

00:01:30.860 And when the times get tough, the weird GoPro, and I wanted to take people behind the scenes

00:01:37.480 and add some color and story to, you know, some of these characters I've worked with over

00:01:42.360 the years when the one thing, I guess, part of my bio, okay.

00:01:46.800 Why tell this story is the, we have Danielle Strachman, my co-founder of 1517.

00:01:52.980 We helped Peter Thiel start his fellowship program in 2010.

00:01:55.940 And that was a program where a hundred thousand dollars was given to 20 individuals a year.

00:02:03.220 The two conditions were one, you had to be 19 and under to apply.

00:02:06.540 And two, you couldn't be enrolled in university.

00:02:09.400 So you had to drop out or take time off, or maybe you never went.

00:02:14.160 And across five years of co-running that program, we saw incredible things come out of it.

00:02:18.680 We, you know, most notable examples are helping Vitalik Buterin launch Ethereum.

00:02:24.240 Dylan Fields created a company called Figma that was acquired by Adobe for 20 billion last year.

00:02:29.940 Austin Russell founded a company called Luminor Technologies.

00:02:32.980 They make a LiDAR system for cars.

00:02:36.240 They went public in 2020.

00:02:38.540 So the, the Teal fellowship had a lot of great successes and there's a independent,

00:02:45.060 this guy is probably the best venture capital analyst in terms of being an outsider at CB Insights.

00:02:52.480 And he put up a tweet, in fact, last week where he did a deep dive on the success of the Teal fellowship.

00:02:58.600 And he, he posted the, the hit rate, like how many of these people, if there's 20 people in every class,

00:03:04.480 you know, what's the rate at which people will create, you know, unicorn billion dollar businesses.

00:03:09.040 And, and, you know, his conclusions were like, wow, this hit rate is something like 7%,

00:03:13.860 which in the world of venture capital is, is quite astonishing.

00:03:16.820 So, you know, there's this program out there that, that the world hasn't really heard about.

00:03:22.480 Mainly because Peter Teal is, is persona non grata.

00:03:26.400 The media hates him.

00:03:28.040 The publishing world hates him.

00:03:29.860 And so no one wanted to hear this story.

00:03:32.440 And since I was there and part of it, I, I, that was a story I wanted to tell.

00:03:36.700 So there's two things I wanted to, to discuss really quickly tied to what you just said.

00:03:40.300 The second one we'll talk about next, which is, is how the media like tried to keep your book from being promoted.

00:03:45.320 I think as much as it otherwise would have been given, you know, how big the things you guys are doing actually are.

00:03:51.400 But the first thing I wanted to talk about, which is really interesting is within Silicon Valley.

00:03:55.300 So sometimes some of our listeners, they say they watch us to sort of understand what I guess like elite society is thinking or whatever.

00:04:00.740 With the fall of universities as good judges of people's competence, the highest status symbol a young person can achieve.

00:04:09.820 And I'd say that this is pretty universally agreed upon among the VC sort of class in Silicon Valley is getting into the Peter Teal Fellowship.

00:04:17.640 It is a much bigger deal than, you know, having a Harvard degree or something like that among the young.

00:04:23.140 And it's interesting because we've seen this repeatedly in terms of like new status symbols among youth, where the highest form of status symbol comes from programs where somebody is giving the youth money.

00:04:37.400 Like the new one is like the Atlas Fellowships, a pretty high status symbol, like after the Teal Fellowship, then it's probably the Atlas Fellowship.

00:04:44.220 And it's because in a world where, and it's actually kind of crazy to think about it, that historically you would, we judge status on people would pay for that status.

00:04:54.240 But now obviously status should be better judged on who's going to give you money.

00:04:58.700 Yeah, seriously.

00:04:59.640 That's a really good point.

00:05:01.740 I wonder if you had any thoughts on the fall of the current academic system and whether or not you think it still has utility.

00:05:07.580 I think hierarchies are best in a stable environment where they are hierarchies of competence.

00:05:15.300 They have not degraded into corruption or incompetence.

00:05:20.260 And let's say a hierarchy exists to solve a problem.

00:05:24.960 If it is still solving that problem and you can judge people based on merit accurately, then it can be stable over time.

00:05:32.840 And with that comes visibility, intelligibility, and the way people talk about their lives and careers.

00:05:40.700 And it just makes sense out there.

00:05:42.500 And I think college fit that for a long time, but people didn't notice that it became corrupted and that it wasn't solving the problem it used to solve.

00:05:51.960 And then maybe it's incompetent too.

00:05:54.100 But nevertheless, like this lingering hierarchy that still has status and prestige is there.

00:06:00.200 So people are entering it.

00:06:02.860 Whereas in a chaotic environment, which is the environment of innovation, dynamism, creativity, these hierarchies should come and go just based on who is solving that problem best over some period of time.

00:06:18.680 But, you know, that's what it's got.

00:06:21.100 There are so many issues here.

00:06:22.020 I feel like I'm wondering.

00:06:22.760 But the thing, what I'll say is there's like a difference between excellence and greatness.

00:06:26.400 Excellence is striving to attain high grades in an environment where there are assignments, essays, tests.

00:06:33.740 These things are very legible, clear, and you can keep climbing up that hierarchy over the years.

00:06:40.080 And maybe, you know, you become a Harvard grad, Rhodes Scholar.

00:06:43.300 Good for you.

00:06:43.880 You're hired by the bureaucratic state, professional managerial class.

00:06:47.420 You'll make good money.

00:06:48.260 But those types of people aren't the types of people who, you know, write the next great novel or invent, you know, necessarily invent the next, you know, big company or something like that.

00:06:59.920 That creativity just comes from a different place.

00:07:01.780 So, you know, that's an old distinction, if I think about it, that goes all the way back to the Iliad.

00:07:06.240 This is the fundamental conflict in the epic poem because it starts off.

00:07:10.700 It's the conflict is actually not the main conflict of the story is not between the Greeks and the Trojans.

00:07:17.160 In fact, it's between two sides of the Greeks. 0.50

00:07:20.080 You have Achilles, who represents greatness.

00:07:22.080 He's widely recognized as the swiftest, most lethal warrior. 0.99

00:07:27.520 And yet he has to operate or work with legitimate, high status, prestige king who's also an idiot, Agamemnon. 0.98

00:07:36.160 And the conflict of the book is Achilles basically, you know, shrugs like Atlas shrugs. 0.99

00:07:41.020 Okay, wait, you're incompetent.

00:07:43.020 You're treating me poorly. 0.97

00:07:44.040 And now I'm not going to fight near war.

00:07:46.040 And so I think maybe all societies have to find this balance between hierarchies of greatness and hierarchies of prestige where they're going to come into conflict or, you know, the old prestige ones need to fade away and be replaced by the next wave of the great.

00:08:01.440 But over time, those newcomers become old timers and they become corrupt. 0.99

00:08:06.260 So it's like we need a process that that knows how to sift these things out.

00:08:10.800 I, I, I, oh, continue.

00:08:13.080 Yeah, no, sorry.

00:08:13.740 I know that was like abstract and.

00:08:16.100 No, no, I love it.

00:08:16.740 Well, I mean, it's also really cool that I think that with the academic system falling, I think a lot of people can see that that's happening, but it's not as clear to many people what's going to replace it.

00:08:26.040 And it is cool that I think that you played a part in founding this new system, which is already beginning to be replicated.

00:08:31.880 And I think will replace the academic system by the time that our children are growing up as the primary status hierarchy for youth.

00:08:39.200 Now, the second question, which I thought was really interesting, because, you know, when we were talking with you, how resistant the major publications were to cover your book or the major sort of, you know, given how impactful your work is.

00:08:50.620 I wonder if you could talk a little bit about that, a little bit about the suppression you have when you're in the Peter Thiel sort of.

00:08:56.520 Yeah.

00:08:56.880 Well, we had the haters of the fellowship in 1517 now over a decade.

00:09:04.000 So when the Teal fellowship was first announced in 2010, I think in the same week, we already had op-eds in Newsweek and other magazines denouncing the program as the white man's NBA, corrupting the youth, you know, getting them to focus on money and not, you know, the intangible rewards of reading great novels, something like that.

00:09:25.200 Then we had Larry Summers, former treasury secretary, president of Harvard, come out and denounce the fellowship as the, this is a quote, he says, it's the most misdirected philanthropy of the decade.

00:09:37.360 He said that in like 2013 or 14.

00:09:40.300 He had numerous bad articles written about us in just about every major publication.

00:09:46.340 Scott Galloway, the bloviating commentator on tech, he dumped on us.

00:09:52.180 So that, that just occurred throughout the decade.

00:09:55.320 But over that time, we just had more and more success.

00:09:58.280 And I guess they, those critics faded away.

00:10:01.360 But when I came and there was just silence.

00:10:04.020 And then when I, I had been writing some articles and this agent approached me about writing the book and I, I, I accepted and he was an Englishman.

00:10:12.860 He's based in London.

00:10:13.660 And I think he didn't really understand just how much the press and the media and let's say the cultural establishment from Hollywood to newspapers and so on, how much that had come to hate tech and in particular hate Peter Thiel.

00:10:26.460 So Peter famously backed, you know, lawsuit against Gawker, Hulk Hogan versus Gawker.

00:10:33.240 When that was revealed, media suddenly thought Peter, Peter was this evil billionaire, stifling free speech.

00:10:41.460 And then he supported Trump in 2016.

00:10:44.800 And after both those things, yeah, I think that the intensity of the hatred just reached all new highs.

00:10:51.200 So we, and we sent out the proposal for the book that was in 2021 and I was shocked.

00:10:59.660 We sent it to 20 publishers, maybe six or seven wrote back.

00:11:03.480 And here's another quote that is word for word.

00:11:05.940 Someone wrote, Peter Thiel is evil and anyone who worked for him is, is evil.

00:11:10.380 So we can't possibly publish this.

00:11:12.520 Of course.

00:11:13.540 A bunch of people, yeah, they, they, they just did not like people.

00:11:18.760 Peter, then another six or seven said, I, you know, someone was said, I went to Yale.

00:11:24.000 I studied English literature.

00:11:25.060 I think college is amazing.

00:11:26.620 I disagree with this book.

00:11:28.600 And then, you know, six or seven just passed because they said it wasn't for them.

00:11:32.160 I ended up getting picked up by a small independent publisher encounter and they put out mainly

00:11:38.700 conservative libertarian-ish policy wonkish books.

00:11:43.420 Tends to be very, you know, blend of academic think tank history sometimes, but this is the

00:11:49.240 first nonfiction, you know, story.

00:11:52.160 I wanted to tell a story.

00:11:53.920 I certainly wanted to touch on policy issues like higher ed and what might be done.

00:11:58.420 But, but I think it is the first book I've, I've seen them put out where it was like,

00:12:02.040 okay, this is a story, a business story, but yeah, that was a struggle.

00:12:06.880 And I think it, it represented that symbolic conflict.

00:12:10.540 It was a, a, a symbolic example of this wider conflict between the, the old institutions

00:12:16.880 and, and things that are popping up here and there that are, that are new and I guess

00:12:21.060 threatening to the old order.

00:12:22.820 Yeah.

00:12:23.380 And it's really humorous if you're actually in these spheres because they treat Peter

00:12:28.120 Teal, like he's this big Machiavellian, like a spider web, a master guy who's controlling

00:12:34.940 everything from behind the scenes.

00:12:36.500 So much so that we've even been caught up in this.

00:12:38.660 We got called up by a comedian who was pretending to be a reporter and they wanted to do a thing

00:12:42.980 on us.

00:12:43.860 And we're like, yeah, we're actually like, after he's talking to you, you guys seem so

00:12:47.500 like normal and not evil.

00:12:48.920 Like he was really surprised.

00:12:50.120 I don't think he actually ran the comedy piece because he, he thought that we were so much

00:12:54.560 nicer than he thought we would be.

00:12:55.820 And he's like, but you know, everyone's going to, they hate you because of those, those

00:12:58.780 Peter Teal connections.

00:12:59.900 So, so our connection there is Simone used to be the managing director of dialogue, which

00:13:04.380 was a secret society thing that was originally founded by Peter Teal.

00:13:07.940 Tentative long-term connection.

00:13:09.300 This was back in his Arn Hoffman days.

00:13:10.680 So it's founded by Peter Teal and Arn Hoffman.

00:13:12.440 But anyway, so, so he was talking to the scene is because you have that, everyone is always

00:13:17.140 like, how could you have possibly worked in any way tied to the sphere of this villain?

00:13:22.740 And what's crazy is that if you're in these sort of circles, he actually just isn't that

00:13:28.460 involved with a lot of his projects.

00:13:30.300 And he definitely is not as a web spider mastery sort of operator.

00:13:36.060 Yes.

00:13:36.980 Yeah.

00:13:37.220 He just, yeah.

00:13:38.020 So that, that was something I wanted to portray in the book was just, I had the fortune of working

00:13:45.260 with Peter for directly for him for five years.

00:13:47.940 He's an investor in 1517 and we are friendly and meet every so often.

00:13:52.920 And, and the derangement syndrome around Peter and the media and the way they portrayed him,

00:13:57.820 everything from, I mean, they, they make him seem like he's this rational Vulcan who has

00:14:03.420 no feelings whatsoever.

00:14:05.000 And then there is what you're pointing out is, is funny.

00:14:08.120 They do always want to portray him as this, this mastermind chess master who, who sees six

00:14:14.520 moves ahead.

00:14:15.160 And one of the funnier moments I've had with Peter was, I said that to him, this was during

00:14:20.240 the gawker, the time of when it was revealed, he, he backed that lawsuit and he asked me,

00:14:25.780 he said, Oh, what do you think of the, the, the coverage?

00:14:28.800 And I said, Oh, you know, it's so interesting.

00:14:30.480 No one wants to debate you on the constitutional issues of privacy versus speech.

00:14:36.140 Instead, they're just obsessed with portraying you as this chess master operating from the

00:14:40.280 shadows, seeing six moves ahead.

00:14:41.940 And then Peter says to me, but I am.

00:14:45.780 I love it.

00:14:47.020 So actually this parallel that happened in my life was a different cultural group.

00:14:51.940 So I was the director of strategy of the ventures, which was the most successful early stage venture

00:14:57.220 capital firm in Korea during the period.

00:14:59.000 And we were always getting into fights with the government to the extent that the fund

00:15:02.820 was eventually shut down by, by government action over something that was later proven

00:15:07.100 to be completely falsified.

00:15:08.620 And the courts admitted it was all falsified.

00:15:10.140 But anyway, a lot of people in the U S are like, why were you in this conflict with the

00:15:14.560 government politically?

00:15:15.160 Why were you so toxic?

00:15:17.160 And it was like, well, we came up with this really crazy investment strategy, which is we

00:15:21.620 would invest in people who had dropped out of college or who didn't go to good colleges.

00:15:26.260 And in Korea, these people are persona non grata, much more so than they are in the United 0.94

00:15:32.360 States.

00:15:32.720 And we were seen as sort of disrupting societal order in helping people that shouldn't get

00:15:39.340 rich, get rich.

00:15:40.220 Because in Korea, the society is so much more hierarchical. 0.95

00:15:42.780 You still have the child and the child, it's much more somebody getting a bunch of money out

00:15:46.960 of nowhere, especially somebody who dropped out of college is genuinely seen as a social

00:15:50.760 ill.

00:15:51.060 So what is interesting, and I think Peter Thiel, where he's actually been most successful

00:15:56.880 is in identifying incompetent people who do not fit into the game of bowing to the systems

00:16:06.020 of power in our society right now.

00:16:08.520 So a lot of the time, these people would be filtered out.

00:16:10.820 They'd be filtered out sometimes at elite institutions.

00:16:13.340 They'd be filtered out of being allowed to write books or run funds, but he's able to look

00:16:17.620 past all that.

00:16:18.440 And because of that, he has access to a much wider and often a much more honest talent

00:16:23.720 pool than anyone else can access.

00:16:26.200 Yeah.

00:16:26.680 Got it.

00:16:27.200 Yeah.

00:16:27.320 That's funny about Korea.

00:16:28.920 One of the cool interactions that I've had with my book being out in the world is I was

00:16:34.240 doing a Zoom discussion with some people who had read it, and this happened off Twitter.

00:16:38.960 So the link went out to all sorts of people.

00:16:41.160 And this young man who called in was actually a soldier in the Korean army, and he was calling

00:16:46.960 from this base somewhere in Korea, and he wanted to let me know that he's having the

00:16:52.740 best time reading out passages of my book to his bunk mates in the army, and they're laughing

00:16:58.100 their asses off, and they couldn't believe that someone was saying what I was saying in 0.83

00:17:01.220 the book or all the things we've touched on about, okay, maybe college isn't best for

00:17:05.060 all.

00:17:05.460 And I think that's right.

00:17:08.900 They are just manic for the university path in Korea. 1.00

00:17:14.120 So the heresy is just even more hilarious to the few or shocking to others.

00:17:19.960 What I found the parallel there is I think in the US, we can see how comical it is that,

00:17:25.300 oh, yeah, if you see this talent pool that everyone else is ignoring, of course, you're

00:17:28.580 going to do well.

00:17:29.320 It's the easiest arbitrage opportunity in the world.

00:17:31.960 And then in the US, you're like, well, what if you invest in people who sometimes have

00:17:35.040 conservative opinions?

00:17:36.400 It's like, uh-oh, that's a spicy take.

00:17:39.800 Definitely don't do that.

00:17:41.200 But it's literally the position that we have lost venture capital funding for our school

00:17:46.220 for being publicly conservative.

00:17:48.800 Wow.

00:17:49.520 This is something that actually happens in the US.

00:17:51.880 People are like, hey, we just can't be seen as identifying with conservatives.

00:17:55.760 And also in the nonprofit space, this is something we consistently saw.

00:17:59.040 We were working for a big nonprofit at one time, and I don't want to say which one this

00:18:02.380 was, but they basically said when they found out that we had a conservative history, that

00:18:08.840 we couldn't work for them anymore because it was too dangerous for their work to continue

00:18:13.040 to get funding.

00:18:14.040 Because so many of the power structures in the nonprofit space within the US are just

00:18:18.400 completely...

00:18:18.740 And as we point this out within nonprofit structures, when people go into nonprofits,

00:18:24.720 they typically have two motivations.

00:18:26.360 Some of them are interested in making the world a better place.

00:18:29.220 And some of them are interested in playing like status signal hierarchy, moving up within

00:18:33.260 sort of this status of society.

00:18:35.560 The people who are interested in making the world a better place, you know, they need

00:18:38.500 to split their time within the nonprofit between social politics and actually trying to do

00:18:42.780 something efficacious.

00:18:43.700 Whereas the people who care only about personal status, they can spend their entire time on

00:18:49.540 politics within the organization.

00:18:51.560 And so within these large bureaucracies, they always end up winning and controlling these

00:18:55.360 organizations, which is, I think, how this group has gained so much power.

00:18:58.960 Right.

00:18:59.920 Yeah, it does become a system of control and exclusion.

00:19:04.040 Yeah.

00:19:04.240 And I think the derangement of our institutions into the woke madness, left-wing, knee-jerk

00:19:12.200 ideology, I guess it does...

00:19:15.260 For the wise investor, it may create an opportunity.

00:19:19.920 But it is sad to me that this has become a way to exclude.

00:19:23.520 I think, I mean, I'm not going to cry too much over my book, but it is interesting to

00:19:28.980 me that I've received no reviews.

00:19:31.820 I couldn't get anyone from normal publications to review the book.

00:19:36.680 I think it's because of this affiliation with Peter Thiel, these ideas, maybe the conservative

00:19:41.080 publisher.

00:19:41.580 I think that all has to be factored into it.

00:19:45.360 It's clear.

00:19:46.460 And then, I mean, look at Twitter.

00:19:48.080 It doesn't even have to be...

00:19:49.140 It's pretty clear now that conservatives were being shadow banned and pushed out.

00:19:56.400 Yes, I did.

00:19:58.000 Right.

00:19:58.260 One concept that I really liked from the book, I mean, it's in the title, is this concept

00:20:03.140 of the paper belt.

00:20:04.360 We grew up with the concept of the Rust Belt.

00:20:06.540 This is the industrial heart of America.

00:20:09.200 And now so much is being run by the paper belt, which is essentially the media, knowledge

00:20:14.560 workers, clustered around the East Coast, right?

00:20:18.100 You'd roughly define it that way.

00:20:20.840 And the book is a lot about subverting this, right?

00:20:23.480 It's about what could come next.

00:20:25.140 Just where, you know, after sort of like publishing your book and being attacked by the paper belt 1.00

00:20:30.220 or resisted by it, I mean, part of me is, yeah, the paper belt is 100% on fire.

00:20:35.240 It's extremely dysfunctional.

00:20:36.360 It's like sabotaging itself.

00:20:37.940 And yet you can feel its power, right?

00:20:39.940 Like we can feel the heat.

00:20:41.400 It's still, right.

00:20:42.160 I can't pretend that it's burnt to the ground.

00:20:45.080 Yeah.

00:20:45.600 And also, yeah, my mom pointed out to me, she's like, wait, your book is called Paper

00:20:49.680 Belt on Fire and you're upset that no one on the paper belt likes the book?

00:20:55.140 All right.

00:20:57.180 I was like, you're right, mom.

00:20:58.640 It's fair enough.

00:20:59.600 But I think the lingering status and prestige of these institutions is strong and they're

00:21:04.160 not totally incompetent and corrupt.

00:21:06.360 I think they're still doing important things like governing the country or providing some,

00:21:11.500 you know, media and so on.

00:21:14.380 I think there is a sense in which, yeah, people ask me, like, why didn't you just self-publish?

00:21:19.020 Who cares?

00:21:19.440 I think, yeah, I'm not quite sure these old institutions are completely dead and I need

00:21:25.040 to or wanted to operate within them in order to get the word out.

00:21:28.960 But I get it if they if they don't want my message coursing through their veins.

00:21:33.440 The yeah, I the paper belt is this configuration of power on the East Coast from Washington, D.C.

00:21:39.400 to New York to Boston.

00:21:40.900 Other people have called it the Acela Corridor, I-95.

00:21:44.740 You know, there are other names for these things.

00:21:47.260 But the thing that stood out to me was that they are indeed paper based, everything from

00:21:51.140 the U.S. dollar to a diploma at Harvard or MIT.

00:21:55.900 And what when I learned more about just, you know, I was deep into cypherpunk, you know,

00:22:04.260 blogging and essays.

00:22:05.980 And I certainly retain a lot of that that rebellious vibe from from the cypherpunk era.

00:22:11.620 But I also just learning a lot about, you know, why was Bitcoin created?

00:22:15.440 How does the blockchain architecture work?

00:22:17.740 And and I I came to see that it is very much against these paper based trust institutions,

00:22:23.640 because if you if you are relying on paper, whether it's a diploma or a dollar, there is

00:22:28.380 an institution that has to be trusted to verify that that piece of paper has value, that it signals

00:22:34.180 something that it's meant to signal, that it hasn't been corrupted or watered down.

00:22:38.740 And then that institution validates it.

00:22:41.660 And so that was interesting to me that the paper is tied to the performance of the of

00:22:46.140 these institutions, you know, because we have to, you know, we have to trust them.

00:22:50.180 And it seems to be the case that diplomas don't signal what, you know, these schools claim

00:22:54.600 they do and that the U.S. dollar doesn't signal what the government necessarily wants it

00:22:59.560 to.

00:22:59.760 So that that that stood out to me and I wanted to run with it, that I think we do have a

00:23:05.440 I think institutions are in decline.

00:23:08.100 It's hard to know how to turn them around.

00:23:10.280 Our our attempt in the book is with the book that I wanted to depict is, OK, what is it?

00:23:15.520 OK, here's the analysis, the critique of the decline.

00:23:19.080 But what can we do outside of it that that's creative and inspiring?

00:23:23.020 And I think stories are the best way to inspire people.

00:23:26.080 No, totally.

00:23:28.100 I'm curious also how far away you think we are from the next thing, whatever it is exactly

00:23:34.660 after the paper belt, like the network state or this more decentralized world, because it's

00:23:40.000 interesting.

00:23:40.480 I don't know.

00:23:40.880 With the pandemic, we got a lot of hope.

00:23:43.080 We're like, whoa, this could happen really fast.

00:23:45.120 These things are falling apart quickly.

00:23:46.860 You know, we read like Zyhan's The End of the World is just the beginning. 0.96

00:23:49.580 And we're like, holy shit, like everything's going to change. 0.83

00:23:52.080 And then, you know, things kind of stay the same. 0.98

00:23:55.240 Stay the same, carry on.

00:23:56.080 No, we're really impatient.

00:23:57.220 You know, it's been like zero times since the pandemic actually hit.

00:23:59.960 What are your thoughts?

00:24:00.640 Do you feel like we're close?

00:24:01.520 What do you think the future like tipping points are going to be?

00:24:03.300 Maybe let's just focus on the institution of school and education.

00:24:07.620 I think all what you just said is true in that category.

00:24:12.580 The pandemic came and parents came to see that they couldn't trust the bureaucrats or the

00:24:18.800 teachers when it came to, you know, providing an education to their children or just, you

00:24:23.420 know, being nice people or even being open, right?

00:24:26.700 There were some unions that extended the, you know, closure of the schools and so on.

00:24:31.840 So a lot of anger and frustration among parents started to pick up.

00:24:37.080 And then we saw greater movement into either school choice at the state level can, you know,

00:24:42.280 just cut checks to people to send their kids somewhere else, but also homeschooling.

00:24:46.340 I haven't seen the numbers, but it just seems to me that, you know, more and more people

00:24:49.920 are doing these things and politicians are running on that issue.

00:24:54.480 But like you said, the legacy institutions are still strong.

00:24:58.600 And every parent I talk to who isn't, you know, normie parents, like their dream is still,

00:25:05.380 you know, just they judge themselves on how good of a parent they are by, you know, how

00:25:09.220 their children make their way through, you know, K through 12 into, into universities.

00:25:13.680 So given that that is still so mainstream and just the main path, I think there's a long

00:25:18.100 way to go now.

00:25:19.700 But it's okay.

00:25:20.600 We've made a little progress.

00:25:21.980 We've seen how the institution is failing, but people are still buying into it.

00:25:26.700 I think we just need more and more success stories.

00:25:29.540 Just have to keep building on, you know, the stories about people who are outside of it.

00:25:34.980 I love what you all are doing in terms of, you know, you're another new entry into the field.

00:25:40.280 Okay.

00:25:40.760 Can we help younger people earlier and doing different things?

00:25:45.420 And, and maybe they don't go to college or maybe they do, but they have a greater focus

00:25:49.380 and, and commitment to something specific.

00:25:52.140 I think that, that if we build on this, then, okay, I don't know.

00:25:55.880 I can't put a time range on it, but maybe 10, 20 years, we'll start to see a substantial

00:25:59.900 number of people who choose that path.

00:26:01.840 Okay.

00:26:02.060 That would be amazing.

00:26:03.040 Okay.

00:26:03.760 Yeah.

00:26:04.040 I think that's, if we like make good alternative systems.

00:26:06.500 I think something you're missing is if you look at young people today, like if you look

00:26:13.520 at our generation, right?

00:26:14.760 Like people had already begun to separate out of the system to the extent where, when I look

00:26:20.100 at the people now who have achieved like disproportionate wealth in our society or disproportionate

00:26:24.920 positions of power, many of them were in these, you know, 1000 people, 2000 people chat rooms

00:26:30.180 in like the early rationalist, let's go back when I was in Silicon Valley, you know, 20

00:26:36.020 years ago.

00:26:36.520 Right.

00:26:37.040 If I look today, a lot of people can look and they can be like your channel, are these

00:26:41.380 communities you're swimming in are like really small communities.

00:26:44.340 That doesn't mean that they aren't disproportionately bringing in some of the smartest people.

00:26:50.100 Like when we're in Silicon Valley and I look at things like the Atlas fellowship and it

00:26:53.100 was really shocking to us because we had a number of people go through our school and every

00:26:56.580 single one of them also then went to the Atlas fellowship completely independently of us.

00:27:00.840 And what that showed me is that we are, when we're out there sourcing being like, I want

00:27:07.760 the smartest kids in the U S and we have two people who are doing this sourcing.

00:27:11.720 They keep finding the same kids and all of these kids kind of know each other already.

00:27:16.080 So I do think we live in a world where the smartest people with ambition and with individual

00:27:23.020 agency are actually already beginning to coalesce outside of the old power system.

00:27:28.760 And I think that's the first thing you need.

00:27:31.660 That's the first big step, whatever comes next.

00:27:35.640 Yeah.

00:27:35.800 Very, very good point.

00:27:36.800 And actually I said COVID is one of these catalysts for, for pushing people out of schools, but

00:27:42.860 we haven't even touched on the woke madness and the ideological indoctrination where I think

00:27:49.780 quite moderate parents don't even want to have to deal with this stuff now.

00:27:52.960 And, and, and maybe that'll accelerate as well.

00:27:55.520 Yeah.

00:27:55.960 We're hearing it a lot.

00:27:56.980 Well, another thing that I've seen, which does suggest to me, maybe things are moving

00:28:00.720 fairly fast is many very high achieving college age people.

00:28:06.200 We know now have enrolled in prestigious universities when they get in, because they feel like that

00:28:12.140 piece of paper will help them.

00:28:13.760 And it probably still will, but they're also completely phoning it in.

00:28:17.380 They're like, I'm not going to the classes.

00:28:19.220 I'm just teaching myself.

00:28:20.220 This is a complete waste of time.

00:28:21.460 I'm literally here.

00:28:22.560 So once that generation starts raising their own kids, are they, are they going to pay for

00:28:27.880 that when they know what they did?

00:28:29.500 I don't know.

00:28:30.260 Yeah.

00:28:30.360 We can't, but one of our, our close friends recently got into Harvard for graduate school.

00:28:35.720 She was like, I really don't want to go.

00:28:37.400 What's the point?

00:28:38.140 And I go, look, you just get the slip of paper.

00:28:40.780 Okay.

00:28:41.880 Like you don't need to go to classes.

00:28:43.460 You don't need to do anything.

00:28:44.620 And there's an old joke that it's easier to, what is it?

00:28:49.120 It's harder to get into Harvard than to fail out of it.

00:28:52.240 That makes sense.

00:28:53.760 Well, I, I, I came close with my Stanford MBA a few times, not failing out, but I guess

00:29:00.600 I always piss people off.

00:29:02.760 I think, well, one other issue is, I think is just how bad schools are.

00:29:08.220 And so it's tough for people to really judge the quality of things when, when it's not

00:29:14.360 clear what difference it makes, but it could be the case and that maybe methods of instruction

00:29:20.500 and methods of building curiosity improve so much that the people who are outside the

00:29:27.320 system are just so clearly far ahead along these dimensions that other people in the 0.76

00:29:32.420 system are like, oh shit, I got to get out. 0.71

00:29:34.020 I mean, I think like people obviously switch from Uber to Lyft because it was just so wonderful 0.98

00:29:39.280 and magical to be able to call a car, right?

00:29:42.460 Such a big improvement on the old medallion system, paper-based system that, that they,

00:29:47.520 they moved.

00:29:48.260 But now, you know, education is so expensive and then it's not even clear how much of a

00:29:52.900 difference it'll make.

00:29:53.940 You know, people just want their kids to be with other kids who are pro-social and pro-learning.

00:29:57.640 But, you know, when it comes to methods of instruction, no one's really good at judging

00:30:02.620 these things.

00:30:03.400 But what if you did send your child to a school and they learned calculus in three months instead

00:30:07.780 of a year?

00:30:08.680 I think, you know, people, if they saw that, they'd say, well, all right, I want to send

00:30:12.100 my kid there, but we just don't have that yet.

00:30:14.480 Well, our school's going to do that.

00:30:16.320 When it's fine, I guarantee you, I just wish we could develop it a little faster.

00:30:20.800 Anyway, I have had so much fun talking with you in this, in this work.

00:30:24.260 We'll definitely do another episode with you.

00:30:25.720 Okay, great.

00:30:26.500 Yeah, that went fast.

00:30:28.180 I would direct people to your book.

00:30:30.720 I would also direct people to things that you're running.

00:30:32.740 You know, if you know a really young, smart person who is working on big ideas, stuff like

00:30:37.560 the 1517 Fund are actually, or the Deal Fellowship are where it is for the next generation.

00:30:44.560 And for our young viewers who are just like, yeah, but I can't, what do you mean you can't?

00:30:49.240 Like being a genius in a meaningful context is about having individual agency and being

00:30:54.860 able to go out there, search for opportunities and execute on the opportunities you're searching

00:30:59.180 for.

00:31:00.180 And so, you know, just remember that.

00:31:02.060 Remember to not forget to try.

00:31:04.100 Yeah.

00:31:04.560 Anyone out there, reach out, 1517fund.com.

00:31:07.500 We have a submission form on our website that we answer.

00:31:11.080 And you don't even have to be starting a company.

00:31:12.720 We just want to meet people who are attracted to, you know, this vibe and this world and these

00:31:17.360 ideas.

00:31:18.480 Yeah.

00:31:19.040 Nice.

00:31:19.900 Thank you so much, Michael.

00:31:21.880 Yeah.

00:31:22.200 Thanks for having me on.

00:31:22.880 Thanks for having me on.

Based Camp - September 28, 2023

Michael Gibson on The End of Academia and What's Next

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