Based Camp - February 14, 2025


Pronatalist Debate: Culture vs. Housing with @MoreBirths


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Length

1 hour and 29 minutes

Words per minute

186.47723

Word count

16,660

Sentence count

18

Harmful content

Misogyny

43

sentences flagged

Toxicity

7

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Hate speech

43

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we have a special guest on the show, Dr. Dan Hasid, who is a legend in the field of fertility, demography, and demographic collapse, and fertility policy. He is also a member of the Heritage Foundation's Demographic Collapse Task Force, which is working with the heritage foundation, and is a tireless advocate for demography and the need to address the growing issue of fertility. He has been a fixture on the fertility collapse task force, and has been involved in the creation of a fertility stack, the concept of a "Fertility Stack" which is a collection of things that impact fertility rates. In this episode we discuss the importance of living space in relation to fertility, and the role of culture in fertility.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 hi everyone we've got dan has here he is more births on x he is a legend in communicating
00:00:06.180 with the public on fertility and demographic collapse and fertility policy and we are thrilled
00:00:11.100 and we just saw him in person a couple weeks ago now he's here with us on the podcast and he's going
00:00:15.740 to talk about his top theories his thoughts on priorities no no no he's not because i'm gonna
00:00:21.120 explain why they're wrong okay then malcolm's gonna be he might disagree and we're gonna see
00:00:25.560 our own little base cam flame war here we're roasting marshmallows over the fire of
00:00:30.460 disagreement it's all good also he's in a fertility collapse task force we're putting together with
00:00:37.520 the heritage foundation which i'm also really excited about right now so we've got right now
00:00:41.400 you guys the heritage foundation guys and katherine yes but the argument we were getting into because
00:00:48.500 you you were destroying it all you're saying you actually agree with me and i don't like this
00:00:51.580 because we need to but i was saying that because there were two core concepts you we wanted to go
00:00:57.160 over with a lot of statistics in this episode one is the importance of living space to fertility rates
00:01:03.420 which is something that you're known for frequently arguing and then the second is the concept of a
00:01:09.400 fertility stack which is a collection of things that impact fertility rates um and i was saying that
00:01:16.160 i actually disagree even with the the lesser fertility stack issue because i think it draws
00:01:21.840 away for the overwhelming importance of culture and i think that if we don't look at this as a culture
00:01:28.020 first problem it causes groups that could otherwise be saved to be able to push off their their real
00:01:37.180 problems to like secondary quality of life issues that they want to micro focus on um and i think giving them an
00:01:44.700 excuse to do that is incredibly damaging to the wider conversation so i want to hear your
00:01:49.020 debate here and stats on why this stuff is so important okay well i i'm i have bad news i i actually
00:01:56.300 do agree with you there's a big problem here i don't know we we want to we want to be a flame war
00:02:00.320 here but actually no you you are right i mean the the most important driver of fertility above everything
00:02:07.400 else is culture yeah absolutely and and so i i do agree this this concept of the fertility stack
00:02:14.960 so i i can i can talk about what the major
00:02:18.140 first go through the major things in the fertility stack then try to convince me that housing space 1.00
00:02:23.420 matters at all because i i just say and i'll repeatedly say this is is if you look historically
00:02:29.260 in america it was common for multiple families to live in one household like that that means that
00:02:34.360 the only reason we care about living space before having kids is completely cultural it's it's like
00:02:40.040 being trans or something like i i don't understand how i can say that one i'm like this is inefficient 0.91
00:02:46.620 and doesn't help people so we should change our culture rather than change you know our biology when i
00:02:52.520 look at houses i'm like well we should change our culture rather than changing our environments
00:02:57.340 because there's nuance to this and i want to hear dan's argument and i can also throw in some
00:03:01.660 things that some people have shared with me that have moderated my views on this okay yes would you
00:03:08.580 want to talk about housing first or the yeah let's talk about housing first i guess the one for you to
00:03:12.880 argue because it's like your core thing yeah yeah so pronatal belief and having a culture that's pro
00:03:18.720 family is definitely very important but but you know housing having the right-handed kind of housing and
00:03:25.000 housing space does matter also and i just want to use the example of a group that is uh all around you
00:03:29.800 guys where you are in pennsylvania which is which is the amish so so we have you know the example of
00:03:37.140 israel which is a wonderful example of of pronatal culture and very dense housing that's gotten
00:03:42.740 denser recently right no very dense housing that is their that is actually i would say their biggest
00:03:46.880 limitation but i i would say you know the amish have many of many similar values you know pronatal belief
00:03:54.240 very religious tight-knit culture and they also have you know a lot of space and a lot of room to
00:04:01.200 grow and you and you get a fertility rate of of six yeah but the core thing that correlates with
00:04:06.160 fertility in american what is it dutch whatever speakers basically amish in america is the use of
00:04:11.920 cell phones which is i mean it's so overwhelming it cuts their fertility rate by into like a third of
00:04:17.640 what it is when they don't use cell phones which shows that that cultural intrusion matters more to them
00:04:22.900 than the land ownership itself and i also point out that if you're contrasting amish culture
00:04:28.020 with jewish culture in the way it relates to land ownership you can immediately see how jewish culture
00:04:35.080 negates the housing issue specifically with with amish individuals it's believed you need your own
00:04:40.900 house to get married and they'll even do like barn raises and like you know you make money off the land
00:04:44.540 and everything like that if you go to israel if you go and we've argued this in other videos that
00:04:48.440 judaism is an urban specialized culture i think today 98 percent of jews live in urban areas
00:04:52.160 if you go to rural parts of israel and you look at the way they structure their their cities
00:04:57.220 they look like micro dense settlements instead of like actually like spread apart cities typically
00:05:04.500 based around like a minion and it's and i'll put pictures on screen of it because it's really weird
00:05:09.180 but it shows that even if you give jews a lot of land because their culture is so adapted for less 0.69
00:05:17.020 space they use the land in a way where they're not like taking it up with giant houses and everything
00:05:22.840 so i i don't want to say that you're i do hear it i do hear it no i really do i i do want to
00:05:28.360 one thing i do want to emphasize this is and this is the sort of the topic of i i say the fertility stack
00:05:35.040 is that there it is multi-factored and i i i would agree with you that pronatal belief and culture
00:05:44.020 are are the most important element and i have that you know as the top of the the stack but i i also
00:05:51.220 want to point out there is you know quite a you know quite a significant housing restraint particularly
00:05:58.360 when you can't have you know all of you know all of cultures you know being as pronatal as 0.95
00:06:06.780 as israel so i i want to i want to you know present show us some stats show us some stats
00:06:11.940 sure sure well and while dan pulls up some stats i will point out that one thing that really changed
00:06:17.920 the way i look at this is a mother that i speak with a lot pointed out that it made set or it could
00:06:24.340 work to have a really big family and a lot of kids in a really small house when you lived in a
00:06:28.800 culture where obviously the kids are playing outside all day they just come home for dinner
00:06:32.600 and they sleep they basically like eat and sleep in the house and the rest of the time they're out
00:06:36.820 playing in the neighborhood kids can't go out anymore they're not allowed to go out there's no
00:06:40.560 space for all those kids simone you're the one who brought up the wolves of new york kids so
00:06:45.540 these were like a family of like eight people who lived in a studio apartment and they never went
00:06:50.400 in new york leaving it once a year and they grew up perfectly emotionally normal and everything like
00:06:55.700 that you do not need space you do not need the outdoors they may have a modifying effects but they
00:07:01.900 are not there are ways to build culture around this and this is like if i was going to conceptualize
00:07:07.600 a fertility stack instead of putting culture at the top of it i'd say a fertility stack is almost like a
00:07:15.340 chart on the wall that like you need to read and culture is the lens so somebody can be like
00:07:20.380 oh that housing number is fuzzy and it's like no just change out the lens like ka-chink and it's 1.00
00:07:24.460 like oh it's not fuzzy anymore you don't need to because if you change culture you can change the
00:07:30.380 optimal amount of really almost anything in the fertility stack whether that's income or housing
00:07:36.580 or space but continue yeah okay well here here what i'm showing here on the screen is this is a map of
00:07:42.220 fertility in sydney australia so you have great it's greater sydney so all the surrounding area is the
00:07:49.260 sydney suburbs oh wow and then you have you know downtown sydney is that area with a fertility of
00:07:55.900 one so you're in the when you're in single family homes and you know and i want to emphasize that
00:08:01.960 this is normies okay you know these are this this could also be a map of urban monoculturism
00:08:07.840 well i think that's the thing is in this fertility roundup zvi who mentions your work and talked about
00:08:12.900 it also points out that what we're looking at is a lot of selection effects too you know like
00:08:17.700 people who are choosing not to have kids don't go to urban i i know that and that's a that that is a
00:08:23.380 a fair point i do want to point out particularly you know in terms of the selection argument well
00:08:29.020 i don't know if we want to take a minute here to look to go over this chart before we go to
00:08:32.340 go on let's go over this chart yeah so we do see that that the fertility in the sydney suburbs is very
00:08:41.540 healthy it's you know around two you know up to up to 2.1 yeah in many of the sydney suburbs as you
00:08:51.300 get to the urban core you're down to 1.3 1.2 and then and then in the in the urban core of sydney
00:08:57.060 your fertility is 1.0 and i there's a couple there's one factor that i really want to emphasize
00:09:02.700 is is is that is most of the apartment towers you know and and in in downtown urban areas it's all
00:09:10.760 you know high-rise apartment towers and most of these apartment towers uh tend to be studios in
00:09:16.880 one and two bedroom apartments so they they tend to you know they tend to be very uh very small and
00:09:23.260 there's actually there's actually pretty strong cultural norms now that didn't exist before where
00:09:30.620 you know the boys are supposed to have their you know if you have a boy they're supposed to have
00:09:35.960 their own room with only boys if a girl is supposed to have their own room with only girls and it's 0.98
00:09:39.840 supposed to be separate from the parents that's the i'm not saying i'm not pressing about putting a
00:09:44.660 value judgment on that i'm just saying that that's the norm that we have now and it's a pretty strong
00:09:49.340 norm because child protective services you know it will actually use things like that you know as a
00:09:56.960 judgment for whether they'll take somebody's kids away right so so this is this is a pretty
00:10:02.980 so we need to we need to stop that in government i mean i think that this is a great point you know
00:10:07.140 if we get in with the trump administration with this task force we need to be removing those sorts
00:10:12.600 of barriers with with child protective services and i'd also note when you're talking about the city
00:10:17.920 and people living in these cramped spaces a point that z made in his roundup that i thought was really
00:10:22.380 powerful which is that you actually probably want smaller apartments being made in urban centers
00:10:29.460 rather than larger apartments if what you care about is fertility rates because they are smaller
00:10:34.960 apartments than individual people what is really correlated with a drop in fertility rates isn't
00:10:39.280 living in smaller apartments but it's living with roommates that's the thing that has like the
00:10:43.140 biggest drop and so if you get a bunch of like two bedrooms in like the the middle of a city instead
00:10:47.520 of really small studios then that means more people are living with roommates really that's
00:10:52.400 what's happening and instead of having more room to themselves and more money to themselves whereas i
00:10:56.840 would say like the number one thing for me for an urban center would be to change the zoning to make
00:11:02.060 very inexpensive extremely small units for people during the stage of their life where they're looking
00:11:08.380 for a wife and i think you can already see do you engage in the stage of life where you go to a city to
00:11:13.140 look for a wife lyman stone did data on this and i'm sure you've looked at it where he shows that
00:11:17.560 actually being in a metro area increases your lifetime fertility rate whereas it's living with
00:11:23.500 parents or living with a group that decreases it you you saw that to the extent that it helps you get
00:11:28.440 married younger it's really helpful well also to the extent that you get younger and make a lot of
00:11:34.000 money younger because there's additional research on housing and fertility shows that if you acquire a home 0.99
00:11:40.700 at a younger age that has a positive effect on her fertility um because theoretically that could be 1.00
00:11:46.580 like an additional income stream it's more financial stability it can make people feel more comfortable
00:11:50.900 but right now of course as a young person it's really hard to buy a home but if you go to a city and make a
00:11:56.340 lot of money find a partner like that's great so i like that point all right let him talk
00:12:01.300 right right so there there is you know what what you just mentioned i i you know i i think that that
00:12:08.940 that that i have to disagree with it and and here's why because you know i did read you know
00:12:15.200 fertility roundup and i i think it's it's it's it is it does jibe with how a lot of free market
00:12:21.740 economists think but but actually what has happened and we have enough experience to see this is that
00:12:29.140 east asia has done exactly this east asia has has a ton of exactly what you're talking about very
00:12:39.200 inexpensive you know small apartments for singles one and twos and what i what i had a post that got a
00:12:47.320 lot of attention uh i think on sunday is i i called it a it's a de facto one child policy where the people
00:12:55.760 have tiny apartments they're very inexpensive but they're very very small and all across asia and
00:13:02.800 the places where that are built like this this is where you see fertility rates you know in seoul 0.86
00:13:07.820 of you know of i think 0.55 or something in seoul and and you know it's there's kind of a
00:13:14.980 misconception that seoul is very expensive actually the rents in seoul are 75 percent less
00:13:22.000 than in the in new york city so you're going to pay wow 25 percent in seoul what you're going to
00:13:28.780 pay in new york city so i lived in seoul in in one of these units i've i've been to korea three times
00:13:33.980 so we we have both we both know korea but go ahead go ahead no so i i lived in one of these units i
00:13:39.080 would i actually could not sing the praises of this style of unit enough for high fertility rates
00:13:44.080 and i'll explain why when i let in the shower units so first i need to talk about how small these
00:13:49.140 units are the one that i lived in was probably about double the size of a twin mattress in terms
00:13:55.280 of like the room vault space maybe maybe three twin mattresses if you like cut them up and like
00:14:00.400 the restroom was a toilet and then on top of the toilet was a shower head like they didn't have a
00:14:05.820 separate space to go for like showering and toilet it was just in a corner and that was it
00:14:09.680 and it really felt like the room from it crowd i don't know if anyone's seen that episode where
00:14:14.160 they get the tv that's too big man these anti-piracy outs are getting really mean i think we're sitting
00:14:20.120 too close to the screen and the floor's all sticky over here all right okay let's move back then
00:14:25.040 i still think we're too close well then sit in the sink i'm not sitting in the sink again
00:14:38.600 okay princess your flat is way too small for this telly
00:14:43.580 what's wrong with you now i need to go to the toilet 0.97
00:14:50.580 i'll hold it in
00:14:58.160 but the point being is i was able to afford this place very inexpensively while i had a high-paying
00:15:05.860 job and then send that money for my wife to get her graduate degree and save money and then we 1.00
00:15:11.460 used money i saved during that period to like buy a real house if if i had to live in like a new york
00:15:17.580 style like one of these larger houses i wouldn't have been able to save as much money and set myself
00:15:21.920 up as much like what are your thoughts on that well i i mean this is this is why you know i try to be
00:15:29.120 sort of agnostic on what the answer is and just kind of you know be be driven as much as i can
00:15:36.460 you know by the data and i don't want to claim to be to have a hundred percent of the answers but i do
00:15:42.720 want to say that you know the lowest fertility rates that we see in the world are places you know
00:15:50.160 whether it be in china or korea or even even tokyo tokyo does a little bit better but tokyo's
00:15:55.140 fertility is still only around 1.0 right but but these are places where housing is actually
00:16:01.080 abundant and cheap but it's very small well and i think that's if it comes back to culture like
00:16:06.960 again this like i'm really interested in the effects of that psychedelics can have from a
00:16:11.820 therapeutic standpoint whether you're dealing with depression or ptsd um but the research all
00:16:17.080 shows basically if you just have a trip you're just like okay whatever try it out but you don't go
00:16:22.320 in with structure intentions you know the sort of a framework and plan like you don't change you
00:16:27.640 don't see an improvement in your situation whereas you come in with this framework of you're working
00:16:33.320 with a therapist here's the plan you're coming in with these intentions it can be transformational
00:16:37.840 i think the problem is in these cities that we're talking about there isn't this perception of okay you
00:16:42.740 go to the city to find your spouse to make the money to buy your house to start your family it is
00:16:47.140 you go to the city to have fun you go to the city to travel more you go to the city
00:16:50.800 you know to to do all these things and when when we look at these asian cultures that are especially
00:16:58.400 struggling with low birth rates when you look at the cultural traditions around dating they're just
00:17:04.780 abysmal like it's very very hard for people to find partners so it's no surprise to me that people
00:17:10.480 in these cities are struggling if you shifted that and i know tokyo for example is trying you know
00:17:15.580 japan is trying to create new dating apps for example and if you changed what it meant to live
00:17:20.400 in the city and suddenly there were tons of singles events or perhaps sponsored by the government where
00:17:25.120 you get dinner and drinks and it's speed dating i think that things could be changed really quickly
00:17:30.000 because it shifts the purpose of that low-cost housing so i don't know i've got another
00:17:36.700 yeah put up more put up more but i want to hear you address before we go further i want to hear you
00:17:41.520 address the limestone metro statistic because i found that very interesting specifically this is the
00:17:46.580 one here that being in a metro increases your overall fertility rate if you're in a metro when
00:17:52.020 you're younger well okay this is that there's a you know the how how are the u.s data classifies
00:17:57.880 metro is really it's not very granular is is what i'm saying and i know exactly i i've studied this
00:18:05.740 data and i know exactly what he's talking about i i read i read those papers 100 and so i live in
00:18:12.260 an urban area i i live in a city according to the the census data so i'm i'm in an urban area but i am
00:18:20.100 i am sitting here in a a five-bedroom single-family home that's that's urban and it's all jumbled
00:18:27.800 together so i'm looking you have a five-bedroom home more births we need to brought five bedrooms you 1.00
00:18:34.280 have a backyard too well no wonder you like housing you're you're living the life here i it's not
00:18:39.820 amazing but it's a mansion i'm gonna put on i'm gonna put on visualization and more birth house
00:18:45.560 this estate is basically buckingham palace's less famous cousin with five rooms and stunning gardens
00:18:51.800 it's a quintessential british manor it's said to have an underground pool and cinema
00:18:57.060 yeah yeah we put i have five turrets and and seven seven butler's quarters no i'm just kidding
00:19:07.600 no no no but and a slide down like a you know you need one butler per kid no we actually my my i have
00:19:15.620 a family member who insists on having an au pair for every kid they have and they're a very high
00:19:20.820 infertility family and it is comical i don't know i can say this must be nice yeah it must be nice
00:19:28.560 no i i do want to it does make it it does make it a lot easier and this is one thing that we need to
00:19:35.560 talk about i think you know they're they're a great you know some of the great pronatalist
00:19:40.460 communicators one of my one of them is my friend tim carney he has a book called family unfriendly it's
00:19:45.880 he's a he's a father of six oh yeah yeah yeah he's a he's a great guy i hope i hope you guys can
00:19:50.960 meet him at some point we did we did we had him we had him over uh yeah the night before we saw you
00:19:56.660 he went to our first one oh great oh great yeah and he's awesome yeah we we yeah we should probably
00:20:03.440 have him on the podcast but his point and it's a point that i think you guys have made also
00:20:07.740 is that one aspect of of parenting that that's important for for from a pronatal perspective is
00:20:16.980 for it to be easy like like you can't you can't have this high impact helicopter parenting and and
00:20:23.440 have six kids as i do i mean yes we were we we probably did a a more careful detailed bit of work
00:20:30.960 with our older ones than we than we you know but it it's fine and they actually get to be a more
00:20:36.200 responsible and they and more more confident uh you know my my my 17 year old took one of the cars
00:20:43.820 and she's i i don't know i don't even i don't think any of us even know where she is and that's
00:20:48.260 she's she's she's she's trustworthy and she's very responsible so it's okay and but but you know we
00:20:55.760 can't it is impossible to helicopter her i i don't have i don't have the capacity yeah and that is
00:21:02.860 to your point to her benefit also helicoptering religious like i i was just thinking today
00:21:08.520 about how i introduced foods to our first kid of like i pureed the food at home i spoon fed
00:21:16.600 everything nothing went in the mouth nothing was swallowed like and it was very stressful and very
00:21:21.820 expensive and now like with our kids i just give them like stuff to chew on when they're teething and
00:21:27.360 then just let them hand feed with non-choking hazard foods when they feel like it and i don't
00:21:32.420 worry about it and it's so much more sustainable and that's just like all across the board so it
00:21:36.240 is but again that's culture but yeah but i did want to mention i did want to mention as well you know
00:21:40.420 talk about you know urbanization as i say i i'm part of the urban category and you know having a house
00:21:48.300 in the suburbs is not the is not what i'm talking about i'm not talking you can have pretty good
00:21:53.020 density in in the suburbs what i'm talking about is these these high rise like we we saw the map
00:21:59.500 like soul like sydney where where the suburbs of sydney have have quite healthy fertility and it's that
00:22:06.380 urban core and you can argue why and there is an intersection i do want to mention that there i do
00:22:11.360 agree that there's an intersection with culture there this didn't used to be the case and i point this
00:22:16.180 out to people like people are like oh city's always low fertility that's that's not true like there have
00:22:21.380 been periods of immigration in the united states where everyone was like ha ha ha the irish you
00:22:25.920 know it's always like five families living in one house with tons of kids like there have been
00:22:30.420 periods in history where urban centers had high fertility rates but they were always periods not
00:22:37.000 where urban centers had larger houses but where there were cultures in those urban centers that
00:22:41.760 normalized sharing the space well yeah so no you're you're you're right fertility has been you know
00:22:47.840 fertility in during the during the baby boom in new york city was above three so so you can but but i
00:22:56.400 do want to emphasize what i was saying before is that is that we have kind of a confluence of you
00:23:02.340 know their modern expectations say that you know if a if a boy is is above like toddler age and a girl
00:23:09.420 is above toddler age they're supposed to each have a separate room and separate from their parents
00:23:14.560 without yeah that's what we need to be working on i i i do agree that that that you know having a
00:23:20.340 lighter hand and having you know a lot more flexibility about these things is a great idea but
00:23:25.280 i'm i'm i'm you know i'm also you know reporting things as they are this is this is the norm that we
00:23:31.480 have and in this in this norm you know having a bunch of kids in an apartment is just not done it is
00:23:41.340 it is not almost non-existent in a great way that you could fix this and this is something that i'd
00:23:46.020 love to do you know if we have a ton more kids like we go for mass production is vertical
00:23:51.520 hi simone we need to do is get the like a bar that can support them and then basically just hang 0.56
00:23:59.480 them in bags so we can okay okay so like a bat cave or something like that yeah meat hooks 0.93
00:24:07.200 push a button and it goes then moves back and i hook up all right no we we used to joke that we
00:24:12.960 were going to go to old morgues and buy the the drawers you know just pull out that wait simone i
00:24:17.600 don't remember this because i would have done that we've joked about that like a billion times every
00:24:21.360 time we watch great idea kind of well can you put like a an alert for this i want my kids to sleep
00:24:27.360 in the morgue towards we can pull them out your reporters would go apoplectic about this but let's
00:24:33.000 see more stats here dad i i okay you you want to see more on on density yeah and then i also want
00:24:39.020 to talk about the element of the fertility stack because i i am curious you you ran us through it
00:24:45.120 when we were to see but i want to hear i want to hear the part that i'm convinced density wise that
00:24:50.920 density is okay what you need is a cultural tradition of living in different levels of density
00:24:57.300 at different stages of your life um which is what i was raised with and if you had this cultural
00:25:04.580 tradition which i believe we actually have just some people have forgotten it because we don't
00:25:09.160 pass on our culture well anymore it's it's it's obvious to people oh i go in the city when i'm young
00:25:13.880 and looking for a spouse and then i leave the city and have kids after that and yet you know one of the
00:25:18.500 things i heard that really got me is you're supposed to go to a city and run now people go to a city and
00:25:24.260 sit and and they don't understand why their lives end up becoming a disaster but yes tell me about
00:25:29.480 this okay so this this is you know for for cities around the world you know i found and i again i'm
00:25:36.640 trying to simply report things as i see them you know i'm trying to be a referee here and just present
00:25:44.040 the data one one thing that is a very strong correlation is that the higher the share of
00:25:52.400 apartments as a fraction of total housing you know the lower the fertility rate so you have places 0.99
00:25:59.360 you know like china and korea spain also italy also where almost all the housing is apartments
00:26:06.700 uh they tend to have lower fertility and and places on the other end of the spectrum 0.91
00:26:11.320 like at you know what you know atlanta is a good example where almost all of the housing is
00:26:18.020 houses you know fertility you know is much higher so sorry does anyone here believe that paris has a
00:26:25.340 higher fertility rate than atlanta or dallas that seems unbelievable to me well yeah france overall has a
00:26:34.560 has has has a relatively high fertility well there's a couple things about paris i i do believe that
00:26:40.860 i do believe that data point because paris has a very high proportion of uh muslim immigrants
00:26:46.980 so i think that well i'm catholics right i mean catholicism helps yeah but no catholicism doesn't help
00:26:54.120 well i i think i i think what we could be seeing a strong in paris we could be seeing a strong effect
00:26:59.620 of of muslim immigrants um so in in a lot of people i i'm sorry i need to be clear about the
00:27:05.840 stats here around paris france typically has a uniquely high fertility rate among its white
00:27:11.560 population as well it is not just the immigrants that are boosting it yeah they probably have an
00:27:16.520 effect you're absolutely right about that but it also has a uniquely high native fertility rate
00:27:20.800 yeah and and france you know one thing that's really cool about france is we we i'm i'm hearing
00:27:27.460 baby industry there right yeah i'm sorry i'm gonna mute myself until i talk about a problem not that's
00:27:32.020 one um you know me and baby industry hung out and we i i got her to sleep but at our last meetup yeah 1.00
00:27:38.280 she's your biggest fan i think she she can probably hear you and be like oh i'm missing out where's my
00:27:43.540 dan right so but you know what one thing i i want to say in paris or in france's favor
00:27:52.160 is that is that the french leaders like have no problem just saying like hey guys for the sake of
00:27:57.660 the nation like everybody please have more children and like in in the anglosphere and like in england
00:28:04.720 that would be gauche and like completely embarrassing like the french prime minister and not not just
00:28:10.840 macron but like every french prime prime minister since world war ii has said that that that you
00:28:18.080 know it's important to have children and you know to and don't you don't you like being in a subversive
00:28:24.560 movement like for american culture isn't it even better that i can say have more children and it's
00:28:29.360 subversive and cool and rebel like yeah no i yeah there there is something something cool about that to
00:28:35.700 to be the the underground the be a rebel beat the system out pro natalist underground right
00:28:42.480 yeah no you gotta have we will replace you as our slogan
00:28:46.240 i'm a very big tent kind of guy so that's my own but but yeah actually simone can we can we talk to
00:28:54.600 to kevin dullard about making natalist
00:28:56.460 make the slogan we will replace you oh boy
00:29:02.700 anyway anyway but yeah no i i do i i do want to emphasize that the density and apartment living is
00:29:13.860 not the only thing but in order to i as far as i can tell in order to have healthy fertility and live
00:29:22.200 an apartment or a dense configuration you really have to have a very pro natal culture so israel has 0.98
00:29:29.580 that you know what one example that people give is that you have uh high fertility in the you know
00:29:37.460 one of the more dense places on earth is the nile delta like around cairo egypt yeah mostly you know
00:29:43.660 and that's true you do have high fertility you also have a high i just saw data just this week 0.73
00:29:50.020 that the the the percentage of the population that believes in pure sharia law is like 80 some
00:30:00.520 percent in egypt it's like a hair it's a smidgen higher than in afghanistan whoa in egypt what happened
00:30:08.520 so like the the common man in egypt what is very extremely hardcore like fundamentalist islam 0.57
00:30:19.740 okay your man on the street in egypt yeah so there's an interesting like political point here
00:30:26.560 which is you know the amer you know our american leadership had the had the idea that we needed to
00:30:31.560 knock off the military dictatorship in egypt in order so that the people can get you know can be free
00:30:39.180 and so you can have a liberal society actually the military dictatorship was the reason for the
00:30:44.100 liberal society they were they were keeping a lid unlike unlike the the extreme radical fundamentalism
00:30:52.540 that that's the that's like actually the the core belief of like 80 of the population that's one it's
00:30:58.360 such an interesting contrast to iran which is so lost god despite the government really trying to
00:31:04.040 impose it yeah we did an episode on this it's something like only like 26 of the population
00:31:10.320 still identifies as religious and only like 40 believes in in like heaven yeah so this is the
00:31:17.440 power of grassroots culture this is a strong a strong data point in support of your your your theory of
00:31:24.560 people rebelling against the government in a way because because in egypt you had a secular government
00:31:30.100 and a grassroots that's like you know fervently religious and in iran you you you have had the
00:31:37.720 opposite effect where you had a a theocratic group on top and yeah when this is the point i am i am
00:31:42.960 like like a lightning rod about it is so important that people get it through their heads that if you
00:31:48.760 attempt to enforce through laws and through government religious systems it is the worst thing you could
00:31:57.820 conceivably do for it's gonna backfire if you make the government do it but for your religion
00:32:04.280 if you if you want more extreme evangelical christians or more catholics porn bans will have
00:32:11.960 the exact opposite effect if you want more of that banning gay marriage will have the exact opposite 0.65
00:32:18.520 effect anything you attempt to do to heavy-handedly enforce your religious values on a society
00:32:25.080 has the effect of killing that religion within that society you can see this in the data it is just an
00:32:30.940 overwhelmingly powerful effect but what i want to hear here and and this is something you know when
00:32:35.200 we're talking about all of this where i'm like oh my god it is so important that people get it is
00:32:39.960 the culture and family culture not about enforcing culture from the government but like you have to
00:32:45.820 take responsibility i.e you cannot be like oh the government will like ban porn and like my kids will
00:32:51.660 be fine or whatever like how do you personally teach your kids when it's okay to get married what's their
00:32:57.900 sexuality etc and i think if you don't take this culture first mindset it's very easy and i see
00:33:05.080 this even with members of the prenatalist movement to say i'm just going to raise my kids the way my
00:33:10.060 grandparents you know like i.e like we're going to go back to the way things were in the 1950s and
00:33:14.200 1940s and i'll raise them in that format and within a household that's operating within that format
00:33:19.440 and they'll be fine and i'm like no they won't they will all deconvert you you can see this in the
00:33:24.740 data you'll you'll keep like one of your kids and if we don't like hold that in front of people's
00:33:30.460 faces like you can't just do things the way you used to you can't just enforce these values on
00:33:36.140 people then they end up focusing on this little stuff like well you know i'm a traditional christian
00:33:41.040 and i'm trying to make you know housing smaller you know what i mean like housing barrier well i i do
00:33:45.360 want to say that that in the data housing you know does seem to matter quite a bit so i don't want
00:33:51.540 to dismiss it i don't want the other thing you know i don't want to say it doesn't matter i'm not
00:33:56.120 i'm not going to say it's the most important thing but i'm not the other the other reason that i i
00:34:00.360 stick to housing so much or that i that i mentioned housing quite a bit is that it's it's so lasting and
00:34:08.320 if you know the these where you have a sea of urban high rises you know almost everywhere in the
00:34:16.700 world that you see that you see you know fertility rates uh extremely low usually below one i mean
00:34:23.300 so so that that type of that level of density i i in the data it just looks it looks very bad but i
00:34:31.720 i will agree that the the pronatalist culture is that is a trump card that can overcome you know a
00:34:38.640 whole lot and that that's where people live is largely culturally influenced right like okay if
00:34:44.500 you're more urban monoculture minded if the urban monoculture has infested your mindset more
00:34:48.760 you're more likely to live near an urban center and i understand like it's one of these things to me
00:34:54.400 where it's like but i'm able to live in an urban center without that affecting me i just don't know
00:35:00.360 if like smaller houses affect or i have seen any evidence that's and i mean any evidence at all
00:35:06.520 that that that smaller living spaces affect already high fertility subgroups i did see and i i don't have it
00:35:14.420 in front of me and i wish i did but but limestone did find that even for orthodox jews he found that
00:35:21.120 that even for orthodox jews they had higher fertility when they lived in the new york suburbs
00:35:26.480 than they did in in the urban core so it didn't even cross traditions because that's the thing that
00:35:35.800 really get when i mean track across i don't i i think it's really like silly and i basically personally
00:35:41.980 ignore any grass that's like people currently living in the center of manhattan have a few kids
00:35:46.460 i'm like obviously right but what i want to see is people who have ever lived in the center of manhattan
00:35:51.440 how does that affect their fertility rate because again i think that this is a life stage thing
00:35:55.600 well it you know i i had an interesting conversation which i um you know with like a young professional
00:36:06.600 i i i kind of did a a tour of newly built apartments in in bethesda rockville near near where i live and i
00:36:14.500 was talking to people you know first of all one notable thing is that among you know i i i went there
00:36:20.400 and i acted like i was somebody looking for a three-bedroom apartment and i went to the rental
00:36:24.460 office and i asked and and four different newly built towers that i visited had zero three-bedroom
00:36:32.240 apartments in the entire building i mean i don't mean i don't mean none i don't mean zero three
00:36:37.280 bedrooms available to rent i mean yeah i mean the building was constructed with no units being more
00:36:44.620 than two that makes sense because from an investment standpoint the understanding of the real estate
00:36:49.920 market is this basically three plus bedroom houses are the worst possible investment because there is a
00:36:56.280 glut of that inventory from boomers becoming empty nesters and moving out of their three plus 0.86
00:37:01.820 bedroom houses is big downsize and then there's this massive population of dinks or one kid 1.00
00:37:09.280 couples or families that only want two-bedroom or can afford two-bedroom houses and spaces yeah well i
00:37:16.480 don't i i'm not i'm not a developer i have a there's a developer that i'm communicating sometimes with on x
00:37:22.280 yeah it was uh bobby fijan and i want to talk to him more about what exactly are the economic
00:37:28.580 reasons but it's it's a pretty it's a pretty dramatic fact that that all over america you know
00:37:37.300 three-bedroom and larger apartments are almost not built at all yeah i think it i think it i think
00:37:43.060 it has something to do with the fact you get more more paying renters per square foot stuff like that
00:37:48.820 it may have something to do with rules around you know fire escapes and egresses and things like that
00:37:55.360 i'm not i'm not sure i really think it's about demographic trends it could be i i don't i i don't
00:38:00.600 want to say why they're they're doing this but they this is what they are doing and they are they
00:38:05.060 are almost exclusively building like studios and ones and twos almost exclusively that totally makes
00:38:10.600 sense and so i talked to a a guy who he was a graduate of of uva top graduate high income married
00:38:18.160 he had he and his wife happily married he and his wife have one kid he said he stopped at one
00:38:24.740 they live in a two-bedroom apartment in one of these buildings he said they would like to have
00:38:30.200 four children but he doesn't feel like he could do it in the space that he has he said if i had a 0.50
00:38:35.680 single family home i would i would love to have four children and i'm like holy shit well but this is
00:38:42.200 the point right like he doesn't feel like he i mean obviously he can do it in the space he has
00:38:47.500 but the cultural expectations lead him not to feel like he can do it in the space he has right yeah
00:38:53.940 yeah that yeah so you're you have a you have a good point in the in the past people would put a lot of
00:39:00.880 people in in a you know lincoln's log cabin probably one one room probably had you know the entire family
00:39:08.760 plus grandma and and uncle jethro or whatever um but what i what i guess i'm saying here is look you
00:39:14.860 can you can choose to fight like you're choosing like a slider like where do i place my fight on this
00:39:20.400 particular issue right why would i place any fight in the getting larger cheaper apartments when i know
00:39:27.820 that like that fight is almost impossible to win but the culture fight is at an individual
00:39:34.300 intentionally pro natalist individual pretty easy to win i i hear you that's it that is a that is a
00:39:42.200 good point i i do want to you know i am very troubled by by east asia i'm very troubled by
00:39:49.560 asia and the fact that they seem to have painted themselves into a corner with like basically 100
00:39:57.920 percent of their housing being i would say unsuitable to families by modern norms and
00:40:04.920 i mean maybe it's possible to get people to have you know to to to put like six seven people in one
00:40:12.580 room again but i i want to i want to elaborate on a point that you were making because you've made
00:40:18.580 it before more completely which is to say housing is very durable you know once you've built all of
00:40:23.240 this housing that's the way it is so in east asia you can't be like oh you need to change all your 0.93
00:40:28.040 housing to make it like bigger like the housing is already there right and it's going to be there
00:40:32.120 for another 30 40 years right so that's a that's that's a that's a problem if and you know one thing
00:40:38.280 i want to mention the fastest growth like of any country that as far as i know the fastest demographic
00:40:48.460 growth of any country in history was that was the united states in the early part of its history
00:40:54.380 so america went from like i think about 3 million i may get this number not exactly right but from
00:41:02.560 about 3 million in 1776 to about 76 million in the year 1900 so just and it was mostly mostly mostly
00:41:14.620 birth rates not immigration that's right that's exactly right it was uh an average in our area
00:41:20.240 i think in the 1800s it was an average of 14 children per woman oh my goodness we went for it 1.00
00:41:26.860 yeah and and the the thing that i do want to there's a couple things that were happening there so so the
00:41:32.520 culture element was a big piece of it you had these you had these these great awakenings like round after
00:41:38.080 round of great awakenings in the united states that that that that re-infused americans with this
00:41:45.340 fervent religiosity but another thing you had is the pioneer culture where where people and i could
00:41:51.360 see this in my own ancestry i i had a a lovely family friend who who traced my family's ancestry back i
00:41:58.080 have some of my ancestry goes back to the mayflower and you could see you could see that people you know
00:42:04.180 people would constantly were constantly going west and they would they would stay in one place for like
00:42:08.400 a couple years and then and then everybody would go further west and you know constantly spread out
00:42:13.640 on new territory and that seems to you know this this abundant space and the ability to spread out
00:42:21.900 seems to have been one of the factors that that did play a role in america's ability to expand so
00:42:29.020 quickly demographically yeah so i'd point out here that what really killed american demographics
00:42:35.440 from this perspective right and i actually think when you talk about east asian fertility rates and
00:42:40.180 you're talking about cultural norms you know always modern cultural norms so let's let's like study where
00:42:45.800 these cultural norms came from if you look at during our period of rapid growth it was common even in
00:42:50.060 the frontier so you can look at our house which was built originally on the frontier it was originally
00:42:54.380 built it's like a stone house by one guy and if you look at the way the house is divided in the way
00:42:59.620 the rooms are used so you can see where like the piping goes at one point four different families were
00:43:03.880 living in this one house they were all related like brother sister etc you know so like you would marry
00:43:08.800 someone while you were still living with your parents and then you divide your house up among all
00:43:11.960 the siblings or something and then go out of one of you made a lot of money and and so what changed
00:43:16.460 this cultural norm it was world war ii after world war ii basically america had this big economic boom
00:43:22.640 largely unsustainable it was because it was exploiting the rest of the world and this economic
00:43:27.580 boom is where concepts like the possibility of a nuclear family were born i.e a husband goes out and
00:43:34.080 supports the rest of the family on one income this is not the norm anywhere historically this was just a
00:43:40.180 result of an economic boom that happened in america due to a cheat code that was basically like
00:43:45.800 europe's factories are all destroyed and you know all the everywhere else in the world that could produce
00:43:50.940 high-tech stuff had destroyed their economies and so we could you know really gain from that so we had
00:43:56.380 this ultra luxurious lifestyle anyway the culture that was the birthplace of the pre-urban monoculture
00:44:02.980 culture was born here in america and then that was exported to japan that was exported to china
00:44:09.740 that was exported to korea that was exported to all these other places in regards to how much space do
00:44:15.020 you need it was actually specifically after the war in america where it became common for people not
00:44:20.760 to marry until the person they were going to marry owned a home that is not traditional america that
00:44:25.020 specifically i think it changed from 40 percent to 80 percent after i think i do think that the you know
00:44:30.820 the housing aspect is one of is is one of the factors
00:44:36.800 uh that i think gave us the baby boom so so from 1946 to 1940 64 of course fertility in the united states 0.82
00:44:46.500 you know shot up to like above three which was amazing but we can look at the data and we know
00:44:52.600 that it's mostly medical advances well i would say no i if you're talking about the works in progress piece
00:44:58.240 i read everything i read all that yeah i i do you know they they they got some stuff there's some stuff
00:45:04.060 that i agree with uh most most strongly one of the things that i agree with most strongly
00:45:09.000 is you had you had a high rate of young marriage so so that was you had people women marrying at the
00:45:16.200 at an average age of 20 which was the earliest that women married like in in u.s history so so you had 1.00
00:45:24.420 this this really young age of marriage so that was one cause of the baby boom 1.00
00:45:27.920 a huge cause maybe the single the single greatest cause but another cause and the works in progress
00:45:35.400 piece did point point to this thing was you had a huge surge in suburban building you know so it
00:45:42.700 wasn't fancy it wasn't uh they weren't these little houses in a ticky-tacky yeah they weren't like
00:45:50.100 great houses but they're fine actually well it enabled early homeownership too in the sense of like
00:45:55.540 economic independence and security well there's a guy bill i can say as a father of six you know one
00:46:01.760 of my experience my my kids are very that they can be high conflict at times let me just you know
00:46:10.020 which is maybe a good healthy spirit i guess but uh it's not a bug i think it's great but having space
00:46:18.380 just a little space to spread them out and put them in little quarters that over here over there
00:46:24.020 you know is the greatest peace mechanism that i know of in our household i agree but you can do
00:46:31.280 that without extra space so you so in our household you know how we do this we do this with tvs we have
00:46:36.840 little play tvs and and when the kids are getting rough we just set up all the tvs and we go okay go to
00:46:41.980 your tp and play there okay interesting i mean the the problem with older you'll see you'll see it
00:46:49.060 gets more difficult when they get a little older because you know my second daughter she is an 0.69
00:46:54.760 incredible talker she's the funniest person uh that i know and you know i mean even a level of humor that 0.99
00:47:02.340 that that is is very remarkable but but she she's really quick-witted and when she gets to arguing with 1.00
00:47:08.140 her siblings you know it's it's nuclear it's nuclear i mean if you can have a nuclear war of
00:47:16.960 words she you know and and the only thing that i know to do when that when that happens is to get
00:47:22.820 them in different parts of the the house or somebody takes a walk or this or that you know and you know
00:47:28.260 having a yard having a place for the kids one aspect that i think is very valuable as well as is for
00:47:35.200 little kids to be able to play in the yard you know basically relatively unsupervised and that you
00:47:41.000 know and this is back to what tim carney was saying about kind of the the lower effort parenting as
00:47:48.400 opposed to you know if i lived in an apartment in a in an apartment in a high rise i'd have to
00:47:52.940 we'd have to come up with things for the kids to do five times you can't do that even in the
00:47:58.480 suburbs now it's illegal we've had to see that's called on us for having our kids play in the yard
00:48:01.960 unsupervised yeah we bought this place thinking oh this is great it's right by a park our kids can
00:48:07.820 go play in the park no we would be if we get into the administration with a with a you know the panel
00:48:16.220 one of the things we really need to focus on is dismantling cps or at least re-establishing norms
00:48:21.260 around how you can call it and why you can call it right i i yeah i do think i i that is a i do believe
00:48:26.920 that that is a genuine issue which i i i don't i can't really put a finger on on in terms of numbers
00:48:33.140 but i think you know they're they they have very strict expectations about about density so so they 0.91
00:48:41.720 are one of the enforcers of of the expectation of you know lower density and and you know crap they 0.56
00:48:48.200 have a strong concept of crowding and you know things like this and also child's independence you know
00:48:53.580 if they go to the park by themselves these are issues that you know there's no that none of these
00:48:58.640 are indications of abuse but but and and i think it's it is very you know traumatic i you know we're
00:49:07.460 very fortunate you know knock on wood right that that hasn't happened you know to us but i it has
00:49:13.860 happened to friends and and you know even to a relative and it's very traumatic and i can see why
00:49:20.680 after that happens somebody would be very reluctant to have further kids because it because it's it
00:49:28.540 feels illegal like it literally feels like we're in trouble for having this many kids sometimes which
00:49:34.680 is not good i mean it's not and it's not just that too it's not just cps it's also the level of
00:49:40.780 regulatory control over child care like the credentials you need to work at a daycare for example
00:49:45.820 and even like you can see the dampening effects on fertility just from their babysitting regulation
00:49:50.860 i mean we have it relatively lucky compared to some places considering you can't just have your
00:49:55.900 neighbor watch oh yeah this is this is a this is an antenatal factor as well which is that you know in
00:50:01.920 dc for example very close to where i live there's a rule that you have to have like a college degree to
00:50:08.100 watch like a a small child and i don't see how how college has anything to do with watching small
00:50:16.060 children in terms of the skill set there's no yeah seriously no reason for for that and it just makes
00:50:21.400 child care much harder to get much more expensive and you know the the fertility rate in in washington dc
00:50:27.680 itself is around 1.0 so so so what is this i mean like no one lives in dc except for college students
00:50:33.960 so that doesn't surprise me but i mean i just i don't know i'm the idea that the government wouldn't
00:50:38.920 have control over anything like this i mean there's most people don't know this but there's even like
00:50:43.720 there's some states in the u.s have regulations on how many dogs you can have for example some
00:50:47.920 city cities limit the number of dogs you can have like there's a lot of control over how people live
00:50:53.320 and i don't like any of it um so let's hear his his stack idea here the fertility stack so what aside
00:50:58.620 from housing would you say really belongs in the fertility stack and do you have it ranked by most
00:51:04.520 to least important i mean i know okay yeah i will the most important thing i would say
00:51:09.220 is pronatal belief and ethos all right culture yes so i had a i had a tweet about mongolia i don't
00:51:19.280 know if you saw that but it was it was retweeted by the the owner of the platform so it got like 10
00:51:25.780 million views or 15 million actually that's insane that's so cool yeah so but yeah elon retweeted that
00:51:32.720 but it's about it was about how mongolia has has this award that they give for mothers of four
00:51:40.160 children to six children if you're if you have at least four children you get the order of maternal
00:51:45.580 glory second class if you have six children you get the order of maternal glory first class and that
00:51:51.980 actually you know cause mongolia's fertility rate to to increase very sharply and they make a big deal
00:51:59.380 out of it and you have so you have this this pronatal ethos and if you believe that having children is
00:52:05.580 good you know is very good very important that is i would say the the the the most important thing on
00:52:13.840 your on your fertility stack so that's that's element number one and that can conquer 0.96
00:52:17.600 so much so if you want to look at a country like israel that has high fertility even though
00:52:24.660 they're dense even though they're educated even though women have more education than men even 1.00
00:52:28.000 though they're technological these are all factors that are negative right but but they have one factor
00:52:33.880 that uh is paramount which is that they believe really really intensely that having children is
00:52:41.820 centrally important and that is kind of a a trump card it's not as i say it's not the only thing
00:52:47.500 but it's if it has if it has a weighting maybe that's at least 50 percent maybe more okay so
00:52:54.200 next element of their fertility stack is marriage so age of marriage or just marriage more broadly like
00:52:59.720 both so marriage rate is one i agree with this one by the way marriage rate is one marriage age
00:53:07.140 is a is another so the the baby boom the biggest cause of the baby boom as i as i've said i think is
00:53:14.320 marriage age when when you when you get married at 20 which was the average age in of that women 0.99
00:53:20.080 married in the united states in 1960 the average age was 20 half were getting married like like
00:53:25.920 dramatically before yeah for everybody for every old spinster who gets married at the age of 23 right
00:53:31.660 that means somebody else is getting married at the age of 17 right well a better
00:53:35.640 for everybody getting married at 26 somebody's getting married at 14 okay all right okay anyway
00:53:44.580 different world different world that but but yeah yeah so i think but when the average age of marriage
00:53:51.340 was 20 like it was you know you it was almost impossible not to have like three kids because
00:53:57.940 you know you have like a 20 year span of of fertility especially you know one thing that
00:54:04.500 people really need to realize is that fertility is far far higher in the 20s than in the 30s so like
00:54:12.360 by the age of there there's a something called a fecundability and i actually want to i want to share
00:54:17.780 this chart here we go this is one of the most important charts that i think exists in all of
00:54:27.120 pronatalism so we're gonna oh okay see it right now this is the most important chart that exists
00:54:33.160 right here there it goes i'm just sharing it now tell me intrigues let's take a look here this is
00:54:39.620 called this is fecundability and this was this was done this was a study that just came out in
00:54:45.420 20 and so this is the monthly probability of being able to get pregnant and i don't know you know the
00:54:54.240 axis so i you can i i don't know if the if the axis scales according to but but so so don't look
00:55:02.660 at the axis as an exact percentage but look at the scale of it yeah i don't know what the but i like
00:55:09.740 that they they didn't go younger than 15 you know i'm just saying this graph has a totally other side
00:55:16.720 it does show though i mean like and there's obviously also a lot of complicating factors
00:55:23.300 how did they get the 15 to like 18 year old no i don't think i i don't think i i i think they
00:55:29.940 yeah that's a good question that's an interesting question all right but here we do see that
00:55:36.980 the peak of like human fertility is at the age of 20.
00:55:43.220 and isn't that interesting that i'll say it's like the peak age like physical appearance that
00:55:47.980 men just constantly want to date like no matter how old they are they want to date women who are like
00:55:52.560 20 19 20 yeah yeah yeah so it just perfectly correlates with fecundity which is right that is
00:55:59.860 pretty remarkable and another remarkable thing is that you know fecundability by the age of 32
00:56:07.380 it's already it's already down to one third of what it was at age 20 yeah so getting married
00:56:15.040 in your 20s is so massive in terms of fertility it it swamps you know almost everything else and as i
00:56:24.620 say this is what this is the easiest and most obvious explanation for the baby boom is that people
00:56:29.640 were just getting married super young and they had you know so many highly fertile years you know
00:56:36.520 and there's another thing when you when you get married young i mean i think my wife was 24 so
00:56:41.300 and i was 27 but when you get married very young like we did we had four and then and then it was
00:56:47.540 overwhelming and we we were swamped and we and we stopped and then and then we we caught our breath
00:56:51.900 and you know we're able to get a second wind and we still had time for a second wind when we were in
00:56:56.420 our in our mid-30s you know to have two more and so we but most people uh at their mid-30s they're
00:57:04.240 starting with round one so yeah so you know that's another thing that that people in previous eras
00:57:12.520 benefited from if you marry early and you have kids early you can you know you you can you can get
00:57:19.420 kicked in the stomach and roll around and then you can recover exactly get back on your feet again
00:57:25.120 well and now actually we're seeing an interesting trend and because i think you know a big discussion
00:57:30.760 that malcolm and i have our stance that we hold is pandora's box is open with with modernity with
00:57:37.440 you know globalization with culture like there is no going back you can't undo it and just go back to
00:57:44.020 how things were you're going to have to find a new way forward one of the interesting ways
00:57:47.560 and i i do want to say i i very much agree that that we we're not going to get out of this the
00:57:54.780 same way we came in exactly you got to push you got to push through and one of the ways people are
00:57:59.320 pushing through which i think is really interesting is couples are getting married young which is really
00:58:05.640 great they're freezing embryos and many of them are now then just waiting so that actually will enable
00:58:12.720 them to get pregnant at much like embryo freezing is the number one most important thing to high 1.00
00:58:19.620 fertility yeah we'll see i i you know i i as i say i want to remain agna agnostic on something
00:58:27.620 until i have seen data on whether you know i i do you know i'm a big big tent pro natalist and i and i
00:58:35.760 think you know i'm you know and i i held baby industry and it was wonderful and you know i'm i'm very
00:58:41.460 much in favor of of trying many things i don't know there is a there is a possible scenario where
00:58:49.960 where where where people you know put off forming a relationship that i saw some data that hold on
00:58:56.120 no but this is different embryo freezing versus egg mary freeze all your genetic material young and see
00:59:01.700 what what this does that is that is different you're right you're right because when you have a
00:59:06.220 frozen embryo like the the big limiting you already have a partner creating the embryos it's not
00:59:12.300 transferring them and carrying them like you could chemically delay menopause i think the oldest woman 0.94
00:59:17.480 to give birth via ivf she lied to the doctor but she was in her 60s so you can like it's amazing what
00:59:24.880 you can do yes it's the quality of the eggs at the age they're produced which is you know we have to
00:59:32.420 yeah so like i think that's that's might be an interesting way that couples go forward um another
00:59:39.200 a very a very common thing we're seeing among like chic urban couples who are like up and coming is
00:59:44.580 they get married young as young as they can and they freeze embryos and then they have kids naturally
00:59:50.160 and they're essentially creating the optionality to have high fertility but still have kids the romantic 0.99
00:59:56.860 traditional way as long as they can while also not compromising the health or feasibility of children
01:00:02.300 later in age so we're seeing interesting and promising trends on this front but none of this
01:00:07.340 changes the fact that early marriage is key here because freezing eggs and freezing sperm while a good
01:00:13.940 idea to maintain optionality is just not as effective as freezing embryos and you can't freeze an embryo
01:00:20.700 yeah and i i do i do agree what is the biggest factor in what age you get married are you asking
01:00:27.460 me anyone oh the biggest factor is culture it's oh yeah yeah i mean culture broadly yes of course of
01:00:35.240 course hey what's next in the fertility stack what's next religiosity is a is a very strong factor i mean
01:00:42.680 how i guess religiosity is yeah and and and you know one thing we talk you know you've talked about
01:00:50.120 catholic fertility and i that what we what i do seem to see is that where people do remain you know
01:00:57.340 church going and faithful they do have high fertility but as we've seen in a lot of these catholic countries
01:01:02.000 there's a a high a very high rate of d d churchification deconstruction yeah so that's religiosity
01:01:12.020 is another one you know i mentioned that the housing and the housing type i really i and i i'm i'm gonna
01:01:17.240 stick with my my guns on that that that's a significant not not the only factor but it is
01:01:21.640 one of them it is it's a factor it's a factor and there's there's tons and tons of research that show
01:01:25.900 effect so okay so there is there's research that show correlational effect i actually okay yes yeah
01:01:32.280 correlation okay yeah causation yeah is there causational data on this that you've seen dan
01:01:38.040 well i would say there is causation in the modern world in the sense that you know your
01:01:44.540 you will have a hard cap you know culturally and you know this is also true for you know rental
01:01:51.380 you know apartment complexes will kick somebody out if they have too many kids you know beyond the
01:01:56.540 capacity that they have you know for example two kids per bedroom is is seen as like a limit
01:02:02.720 that apartment complexes oh just in terms of like this is our fire code limit of residence well they'll have
01:02:08.880 their own limits that they can wow you know and i know this because when i was when when i was a
01:02:17.720 young and when i was five years old my you know my parents were having kids in an apartment and
01:02:23.660 they and my my little sister was born and they got they got summarily kicked out and told to kick you 0.99
01:02:30.720 know they had to go get a oh we should if we get a task force together make this illegal 0.84
01:02:36.380 yeah yeah that that that could help that that could help but i do i do think that people also
01:02:42.720 make the conscious decision based on their own perception of of space so i don't want to we've
01:02:48.740 talked about that quite a bit i'll i'll move on another another point another factor is men's
01:02:53.920 earnings men's earnings in particular men's earnings are pronatal women's earnings are not actually
01:03:00.120 so there is this is entirely dependent on the culture in some cultures the less money you have
01:03:05.460 the more kids you have the some cultures more money means more kids okay unless you change the 1.00
01:03:11.460 culture around women marrying like low low income like women right now and almost like i think this must 0.99
01:03:19.580 be universal across culture want to marry men who are of higher status than them and higher
01:03:26.260 economic well-being and if you if you have depressed male earnings which you totally see 1.00
01:03:32.040 in the data i just saw on x like a couple days ago a really great graph showing how income has
01:03:38.320 changed over time since the 80s across different groups and while it has gone up for women
01:03:44.920 significantly especially minority women it has plummeted for non-college educated men just plummeted
01:03:52.860 like no wonder my point is everybody knows it was in certain cultural groups and and the majority
01:03:59.380 of cultural groups the less money you have the more kids you're gonna have yeah but then you need like
01:04:04.520 even poorer women all i'm saying is basically like women are more likely to marry young if there's a
01:04:10.420 large body of like a higher status than them single men willing to marry i don't there is a i do see a lot
01:04:18.060 of that in that is something that's pretty strong in the data which is that that male earnings like 0.74
01:04:23.960 like a high earning man in most modern societies is going to have more children than a low earning man
01:04:30.520 and actually the highest earning the highest fertility subgroup is people who are high income
01:04:38.620 and low education so that would make a lot of sense yeah
01:04:43.520 so so if you if you can imagine like a low indoctrination whenever your education you should think
01:04:49.600 indoctrination high income low indoctrination but there is another problem with education that is not
01:04:55.460 just indoctrination which is simply years of schooling so you know if you assume that somebody's not going
01:05:01.080 to get pregnant while a woman's not going to get pregnant in particular while she's in school 0.82
01:05:04.380 and she and she's going all the way for a phd at the age of 32 then that's like that's like here
01:05:11.040 here i'm doing the donald trump hands here right you see what i'm doing here but there's no better
01:05:15.920 time to have kids than when you're getting a phd or something like that and people have done it
01:05:19.220 and been like yeah this is like when people should be having kids it's wild that that really does
01:05:23.760 bother me i mean one there is a culture currently in higher academia that many pro-natal women in 1.00
01:05:28.860 academia have pointed out that is pretty anti-natalist that they're getting a lot of side eye for having
01:05:33.900 kids and they're seeing it's like oh you're you're compromising your career i don't know how you're
01:05:37.920 going to make it work whereas like that should be the opposite of the case you really should start
01:05:41.800 your families while you're in school it is one of the best times to do it so academia is should be
01:05:48.560 held very responsible for this talk well there is also in relation to that you know we we have our you
01:05:54.140 know our our friend katherine pakolic you know she had eight children and also raised a further six
01:06:01.900 children from her her husband's first marriage his his wife tragically passed and then she so it was
01:06:09.060 kind of so he she inherited uh his six children after his first wife passed and then had eight more 0.90
01:06:15.940 and she is a tenured economics professor who has a phd from harvard exactly so but what did she do how 0.98
01:06:24.280 did she do it this is the person who wrote heather's children by the way continue yes hannah's children
01:06:29.420 yeah yeah so but which i which i have i actually i actually wrote the very the the very first review
01:06:37.780 of her book actually it's such a good book i love it so much yeah i wrote the first i i got a copy
01:06:43.180 before it came out and i i put the very first review nice so but but yeah she yeah yeah yeah and what she
01:06:52.000 did was she she spaced out her phd over like twice as many years and like it it took her like
01:06:56.960 like 12 years to get tenure or something like that and she just was okay with that and now she's very
01:07:03.700 successful now she's like world famous she's becoming world famous so you know it she's doing
01:07:09.960 fine in terms of her i mean becoming a world famous public intellectual is probably like the height of
01:07:17.200 human accomplishment right you know so and raising a big family you just don't have to do it all at the
01:07:24.380 same time is the point is yeah well she she did she does have it all well it just takes a while
01:07:30.660 and you don't have to you don't have to what what you have to do is have you have children in your
01:07:38.260 20s and early 30s yeah she couldn't go back and get that she couldn't be like now i've done it now
01:07:43.560 i'm gonna have my you know huge family it would be gone with all this spouse wife slash husband 1.00
01:07:50.360 first and then security not security first then wife says spouse and i'd even go so far as to say
01:07:58.180 you will never have real security if you do it the other way around because if you get security before
01:08:03.220 you get wife slash spouse then the they that wife sees you as a source of potential income resources 1.00
01:08:10.180 etc and they are much more likely to divorce you i think a huge part of the drop in divorce for our
01:08:16.520 generation has been because people understand this now and for the individuals who don't see this who
01:08:21.180 want the security first you you will never have security in your life because you are just a time
01:08:27.080 bomb of divorce well there's another point which i've i've emphasized before which is that
01:08:33.160 if you look at wealth in the united states and probably a lot of countries are similar wealth is very low
01:08:39.280 in the 20s and and it starts to climb a little bit in the 30s but wealth really takes off in the 40s and
01:08:47.820 50s but if you wait until the 40s and 50s you've your your fertility window has passed you by
01:08:54.780 so so you actually have to most people have to have children when they're young and poor i mean even
01:09:00.620 elon musk when he was like in his 20s what you know his his wealth was like one one thousandth
01:09:06.000 or one probably much less than one one thousands it was probably what like one ten thousand one
01:09:12.080 one hundredth of thousandth of what it is now you know if the point is that that there's this
01:09:18.040 trajectory that almost everyone follows in the in modern society where most people are poor in their
01:09:24.680 20s and then and then start to start to gain a little traction in their 30s and then are really
01:09:30.740 taking off financially in their 40s and 50s you you can't wait that long you have to you have to start
01:09:37.280 much earlier so just a couple more go going through the fertility stack a little bit more 1.00
01:09:40.780 so grandparents support is a big one that's a big a big thing it's called alloparenting and
01:09:48.340 grandparents are the biggest source of that in israel for example in israel you have these thick 0.84
01:09:54.000 family networks beyond the nuclear family that provide a great deal of child care yeah that
01:10:01.580 sorry just a quick side question here might not be related to this discussion
01:10:06.180 but what determines a grandparent's likelihood of helping with parenting
01:10:10.300 i mean i think it's pronatal belief it's culture yes literally culture everything you're saying here is
01:10:18.160 culture is all that oh my god melaka oh sorry oh i got it culture i mean continue continue i just
01:10:27.180 want to make sure that we understand that it's literally culture well yeah no it's it's interesting
01:10:34.060 because my own grandparents who were wonderful people but they didn't have that that culture
01:10:40.080 no my my family doesn't have that culture and so you are responsible as a perinatalist for creating
01:10:45.840 that culture in your kids and with your own yeah i mean like we we've we've baked it into our
01:10:50.840 internal family culture of like we are one like we are happy to raise our kids kids you know that is
01:10:57.600 the most pro-natal grandparents type thing that i have ever seen which is so in my neighborhood 0.63
01:11:05.400 there's a catholic couple that raised 11 children okay and then in a decently big but not enormous
01:11:14.720 you know suburban house and then you know of those 11 children one of one of their kids had like
01:11:21.080 you know caught the bug if you will you know got married young married a wonderful
01:11:26.820 young woman and wanted to have a big family you know what the parents did 1.00
01:11:30.240 they sold their house for really cheap to that son and his wife like way below market
01:11:39.060 and then they moved into an apartment and and so they they kind of and then and then now they come
01:11:47.040 over to their to this house that was once their own house to watch the kids that is wild wow
01:11:54.320 dedication this is a young couple they already have six i think they're going to get to 10 to 10 or 11
01:12:00.940 this this young couple that lives down the street and they would not be able to get there without that
01:12:05.120 parent's support and now they're young homeowners they oh that's amazing yeah so i mean that's like
01:12:10.500 hardcore like here you want to do what we did you believe in having a big family take our house
01:12:16.600 like you know but that's the culture that requires that you know like how do you build that you know
01:12:23.380 right exactly what else is in this this this stack what else is in the fertility stack
01:12:27.880 okay so another one that almost nobody thinks about but this is a significant factor across countries
01:12:35.180 and across u.s states is c-sections so the higher rate of c-sections that that there is
01:12:46.040 the the lower fertility would be and i and i think by the way that this is kind of manufactured in
01:12:51.380 the sense that i think this is completely irrelevant i think it's more likely to be
01:12:56.500 correlatory than you'd think it's true in the data and i'll tell you i'll tell you why is okay is that
01:13:01.200 doctors tell you that you can't have more than c-sec more than they do and that's that is a big
01:13:06.520 problem which is something that they shouldn't say but they do and i know that you've simone i think
01:13:11.000 you've had four right yeah i've had four and my my surgeon who's done two of those four
01:13:15.400 the most she's ever done on someone is seven and she says basically there's no correlation between
01:13:20.460 the number of c-sections you've had and problems it's all about specifically your unique biology
01:13:25.240 there's some women who like they know like one c-section never again and there are other women 1.00
01:13:30.580 who it's like keep that's a wonderful point which is that it is possible to have a lot more
01:13:34.280 but but the messaging that doctors give overwhelmingly yeah it's like well of course you're never going to
01:13:41.320 have like two or three only so there is like and country like south korea has a rate of c-sections like
01:13:49.300 like 60 percent or 55 and this is not necessary and combine that with the the kind of the message
01:13:58.920 that the c-sections limit fertility and then what you end up with is that there's a a very strong
01:14:05.840 negative relationship between the c-section rate you know what you know what what oecd country
01:14:10.920 has the lowest rate of c-sections oh france no there's one oecd country with the highest
01:14:19.260 fertility israel yeah oh wow so that makes sense so israel kind of intentionally avoids on you know 0.85
01:14:29.560 unmedically necessary c-sections i'm a big fan of c-sections that are medically necessary but
01:14:35.260 the other thing is that there's a lot of miscommunication around i agree with that yeah
01:14:39.040 which which you know you know i was very moved simone when you you said i think you i think you
01:14:44.640 told uh pierce morgan right you said i'm gonna how many children are you gonna have you said it until
01:14:50.540 they they forcibly removed my uterus in a botched surgery yes i like i don't know if i if my eyes got
01:14:59.040 wet when i heard that because like that's that's a really moving statement actually i think you're a 0.51
01:15:03.400 you're a lucky guy malcolm i mean well i think you know like there's and this is actually an added
01:15:08.420 again it's culture malcolm's gonna say but you know back in the day the rate at which women died
01:15:15.540 in childbirth was similar to the rate at which men died in in war and i think yeah there's there's this
01:15:21.580 you know like the way that women you know reach the hull of the valhalla is by dying in childbirth 1.00
01:15:27.240 like it's the it's the honorable way to go in many ways and and they were willing to go that way
01:15:31.460 they were willing to undergo the risk in many cases they still wanted kids despite the risk
01:15:36.060 because there was glory in it it meant you were serving your country you were serving your family
01:15:41.280 you were defending what you believed in and i i very much believe in bringing that back and of
01:15:46.520 course i think a lot of the the the fears that young women have around things like pregnancy
01:15:51.360 and the related risks one they're super overblown and and it's actually a lot more nuanced in terms
01:15:56.880 of like is it bad for you is it good for you does it hurt you like is it actually dangerous there's a
01:16:01.120 lot of nuance there but also the the the values are all wrong like it even if it was really dangerous
01:16:08.260 and i i question that like there's we're gonna have another episode where we go over this more
01:16:12.860 i think women should be like well yeah like this is if you're gonna go you should go doing this 1.00
01:16:19.120 you know like why do you really want to die like after like four crappy months on hospice care
01:16:25.140 or you don't have to die at all and actually actually this is something that the rate the risk
01:16:29.680 and this is a big victory of civilization is that is that the the risk of actual death and childbirth
01:16:35.860 is very very very yeah it is very extremely low i mean even if you're even if you're on your
01:16:40.380 seventh c-section or whatever which i hope you get to yeah well although i'm when you know when you
01:16:44.420 read hannah's children there are many there are at least like two or three examples of women who 1.00
01:16:48.680 who did have to stop having children or chose to stop having children because their doctors are
01:16:54.360 like lady you're gonna get a heart attack if you do this again like you literally like from a health
01:16:58.300 standpoint cannot keep having children knock it off lady what i will say is um having having a child
01:17:07.740 should be seen more like in terms of the risks is similar to like being into running marathons
01:17:14.060 you could really screw up your body getting really into like iron man competitions and you can really
01:17:20.120 screw up your body really getting into pregnancy but like these are things that like they're hills
01:17:25.560 worth dying on and again it comes back to culture well yeah i mean the the question is you know i i think
01:17:31.980 when i talk again about the fertility stack i think you know if you want to have higher fertility
01:17:38.700 rates across society i think you have to have you also have to have something you know things that
01:17:45.900 make a difference with with the normies if you will because i actually disagree with this i think that
01:17:51.820 thinking of fertility rates is something to raise at a societal level is fundamentally misguided and will
01:17:58.520 not work you need to think about how to raise fertility rates at the level of individual families
01:18:03.560 and then at the size no we're coming back to egypt and iran we need grassroots right and then at the
01:18:09.540 societal level convince them it's worth doing and investing in all society needs to do like in terms
01:18:16.240 of like actually fixing this is make people feel like they are living unworthy lives or humiliated for
01:18:23.020 not having lots of kids like one of the things that we've been promoting recently on the channel is 0.84
01:18:27.240 if you are a man and you have three kids fewer than three kids you are a cuck you're being cucked by 0.62
01:18:36.220 every man if you're paying taxes you're being cucked because other men are replacing your genes in the nest 1.00
01:18:43.240 you are contributing to the next generation and those kids are eating your your genetic lines lunch and 0.99
01:18:49.340 when you build mindsets like this like oh my god i don't want to be cucked but there's also alternates so
01:18:56.360 one of the things that we offer was like our hard ea 501c3 foundation is if you are just in a life
01:19:02.520 situation or you can't have kids or whatever right you can donate to us and we will keep your genome on
01:19:08.820 file for whatever civilization we end up creating well yeah i mean so so yeah i yeah what one more
01:19:16.040 element of the of the fertility stack if you will which which which again wraps around to culture and
01:19:20.540 you know is you know having a culture of large families i mean one thing that happened
01:19:25.620 you know in in modern times is that we had this norm of two children and if you have a norm of two
01:19:32.700 children you're going to have you know in a modern society it looks like you're going to have about
01:19:38.120 one-third of the population is going to have no kids typically just just because people you know
01:19:43.740 some guys never can get a good job some some women just don't want to have kids some people never seem 1.00
01:19:50.520 to get their life together you know some women just don't want to date men that are that just are at 0.60
01:19:56.340 the bottom of the of the social rung and so forth so you're going to have this is why we need this is
01:20:02.040 why we need harems i should have four wives where are my sister wives okay anyway continue so what what 1.00
01:20:09.440 what so what you what you really need is a norm of many of larger families like you you would you
01:20:14.820 need if one-third are not going to have children then you have to have a norm of three children per
01:20:21.120 family among everybody else to get to replacement so you you just need to to have a higher set point
01:20:29.200 if you will and this this is one reason why i think which why i really love large families and you
01:20:34.580 know people like katherine pakolic with with a very very large family is is that you kind of
01:20:40.180 you know set the the the family size over to the window if you will so if you can open that up
01:20:48.580 you know if if she has what i say six you know 14 children then then me with six children is not weird
01:20:58.460 suddenly it feels like yeah like oh no i'm very conservative here you don't feel like a freak and i i will
01:21:03.720 say that i went into her book thinking all right i'm aiming for eight i'm aiming for eight and then
01:21:08.380 i came out of her book and i'm like i'm aiming for 12 to 14 i can do this come on we can do 12 to 14
01:21:14.800 we can do it this is 100 dependent on my uterus but like it definitely just knowing i think a big 0.89
01:21:21.900 thing and i was looking at different stat actually um today that was it it found that a parent receiving
01:21:29.580 welfare non-trivial increase the odds of a child taking using government services and welfare as
01:21:36.120 well like basically we read three times more likely three times yeah so we're way more likely
01:21:40.660 to do stuff if we're exposed to it if we see it if you come from a family with with a lot of kids
01:21:46.160 you're more likely to be like yeah this is normal you know or a family you know this is a big thing
01:21:51.160 with our school that that we're developing over time is we really want to expose our children
01:21:56.420 and other children within our culture and our cultural network to very high achieving families
01:22:02.400 and parents and you know with careers and influence and you know that are doing things that are exciting
01:22:07.520 because we want kids to normalize oh i could be a thought leader i could be you know building rocket
01:22:13.160 ships i could be you know changing germline genetizing for you know generations to come like
01:22:19.420 we want children to normalize to that because really that's all it takes and you're absolutely right
01:22:23.780 like if we normalize big families people will be like yeah okay like this is doable yeah it's amazing
01:22:30.540 just for me because i don't get a lot of exposure to large families to people who have like five plus
01:22:35.720 children and the few friends i do have who have a lot of children don't talk with me that much because
01:22:40.220 they're kind of busy you know we don't live right next to each other so just reading a book where i'm
01:22:45.880 hearing interviews of these people if it was able to have that much of an influence on me
01:22:49.520 like just imagine what a little bit more in our culture could do yeah i i i do think you know
01:22:56.680 but that that's the that's the 100 trillion dollar question which is the size of the global economy like
01:23:04.240 you know building a a broader culture you know we we can have subcultures that survive but the question
01:23:10.720 is can you can you have you have to you have to build a culture of building subcultures
01:23:16.500 yeah we'll we'll see we'll see we'll see i i don't anyway all right great to have you on
01:23:23.580 great to have you on great to talk wonderful wonderful the minds did i convince you at all
01:23:28.940 it makes sense to think about this as primarily a cultural issue
01:23:33.260 it is i i do i have emphasized that culture is incredibly important but i i would also
01:23:41.540 say that no but culture fixes housing easier than you can fix housing
01:23:47.480 well i i would say you know even in in vienna in 1920 fertility was 0.6 so vienna in 1920 was sold in
01:24:01.380 you know and this was before the pill this was before you know modern birth oh yeah i mean cities
01:24:06.320 well no ancient ancient rome was like this cities have been fertility shredders for as long as there
01:24:10.940 have been cities that's always i do think i do think that culture it doesn't exist on an island i mean
01:24:16.940 you know you you talk about the urban monoculture and that that literally is a reflection of the fact
01:24:24.320 that there's a culture that that's particularly pervasive in cities that is antagonistic evil
01:24:31.220 culture that will hunt you down and erase you but you know i i do think that you know where where
01:24:39.100 people live can can shape culture as well i don't think the amish could be the amish 0.98
01:24:42.740 if if they didn't have you know the rural living that they have no no no i push back
01:24:49.040 her righty jews are all over manhattan 1.00
01:24:51.020 well but well the amish in the her radio are extremely no that's true like yeah but the amish 1.00
01:25:00.740 have chosen a bad culture 0.96
01:25:02.000 we'll see we'll see they may they may they may replace they may be the one that who you know
01:25:11.700 robin hansen you know thinks that they're they're going to be you know one of the winners of oh he's
01:25:17.700 super wrong so the okay so just aside here so we often talk about the pax de romana of the urban
01:25:23.040 monoculture pax de romana is the peace of rome it meant that there were a bunch of people who would
01:25:27.780 have otherwise killed each other but were at peace because they were under the roman empire 0.54
01:25:30.860 the amish are living under the pax de romana of the urban monoculture because they are extremist 1.00
01:25:37.320 pacifists as soon as the urban monoculture falls groups that are like i don't even say my
01:25:43.420 cultural groups like if one of my kids was like he was struggling and starving and his kids were
01:25:48.740 at risk and he's like yeah but those amish have some nice land over there he's gonna go take it 0.97
01:25:54.160 with his gun drones or even an ar-15 it's easy like i i guess what i'm saying is is it the amish
01:26:01.360 pacifism as long as that's in place the amish are basically a negligible factor in long-term human 1.00
01:26:08.760 civilization we'll see i as i say i i try to i i try to focus maybe ai will protect them maybe ai will 0.97
01:26:18.760 protect them wouldn't that be funny if ai is the reason people don't just kill the amish and take 0.99
01:26:22.560 one thing about the amish is that they're not they're they're not anti-technological
01:26:28.340 just on a they don't believe that technology is evil and it's sinful necessarily they actually
01:26:35.920 that that what they believe about technology is they're they're very selective in anything that
01:26:40.700 they think is going to like mess up their family culture they they you know because i i had an
01:26:45.980 interesting you know i was in pennsylvania in in october probably not not not very far from where
01:26:51.660 you guys live in amish country and you know there was a couple young guys and they were there
01:26:57.220 in a sheets use you know pennsylvania is full of sheets they were they were there using the atm you know
01:27:04.680 taking turns you know getting all their cash out and i was like wait a minute i thought amish
01:27:09.460 don't use tech but actually they do use technology they have no problem with it they just they just
01:27:14.180 pick their technology that that they think won't change their culture so they may not use cell phones
01:27:18.840 but they have no problem using atms for example so i i think that i think that who knows probably the
01:27:26.460 amish isn't their lack of technology it's their pacifism 1.00
01:27:29.100 that's what makes them so vulnerable but me we'll see i you know as the old chinese proverb
01:27:37.160 goes we shall see right yeah we shall all right have a good one guys simone what are we doing for
01:27:42.300 dinner tonight either tomato soup and grilled cheese or teriyaki chicken with lime rice because we
01:27:49.840 haven't thought out more steak for you but before we go everyone go to x.com backslash more births 0.79
01:27:58.920 because this is and promote the pernatals
01:28:01.880 promote the conferences in the pernatals episode yes yes so yeah okay go ahead sorry go oh dan by the
01:28:09.920 way are you going to be there yes i'm going to be i'm going to be one of the speakers
01:28:12.980 okay so join us and more births at the natalism con in march in austin and you can get a 10 discount
01:28:22.500 if you sign up we're calling so do it because you should save your money for kids right right and i
01:28:31.180 again follow me at more births more births i i write as much as i can about all you know all sorts of
01:28:38.680 factors driving fertility including culture and by the way the pernatalist conference so expensive
01:28:45.340 i'd point out that last year kevin dolan ended up eating cost on the conference right like you can
01:28:51.180 complain about the conference being expensive but venues are expensive right like the conference does
01:28:55.980 not make money so keep that in mind if that is your concern right all right well dan thank you so much
01:29:05.160 thank you so much and i am already looking forward to our next conversation and lots of love to you
01:29:09.960 and the family okay good luck to everyone good to good to see baby industry there all right
01:29:15.380 she's rebelling now but that's okay she'll get dinner next good
01:29:20.000 you