Based Camp - Sweden's Pronatalism Fails： Just Like We Predicted

00:00:00.000 Even men have become feminists.

00:00:01.700 The state supplies universal daycare

00:00:03.080 and flexible employment for mothers.

00:00:04.780 Fathers take up their share of domestic labor 0.95

00:00:06.400 and both parents are awarded generously

00:00:08.220 from their jobs to raise the next generation.

00:00:11.040 Across these countries

00:00:12.740 that had been implementing these policies,

00:00:14.860 they have begun to see their fertility crash.

00:00:17.660 And we told you.

00:00:21.860 But I want to hear you pontificate on this first.

00:00:26.700 I, yeah, this was very much

00:00:28.540 an I told you so kind of thing

00:00:29.560 because we're like, it's not the money.

00:00:30.820 It's not the money.

00:00:31.360 It's not the money.

00:00:31.880 It's the culture.

00:00:33.340 And here it is.

00:00:34.740 There's no exogenous celebration

00:00:37.060 of people being parents.

00:00:39.420 I think one of the big problems is

00:00:40.740 there's this dream

00:00:41.740 that you can have a pronatalist culture

00:00:43.300 and everyone can work

00:00:44.200 and everyone can participate in the modern economy

00:00:46.380 and identify as career people.

00:00:48.560 Would you like to know more?

00:00:49.860 Remember when we took that trip to Sweden

00:00:52.020 and you paid like $30 for a hot dog

00:00:55.500 and then we decided to stop eating?

00:00:58.400 Yeah, no, it's funny.

00:00:59.140 So we did this trip to Sweden

00:01:01.100 and I love the trip that we did there actually

00:01:03.360 because this was what Simone gives me

00:01:05.960 when she's giving me a trip.

00:01:07.000 Like we don't go on normal trips, I should say.

00:01:09.440 Before we went to Sweden, Simone had me, for me,

00:01:14.020 she emailed every one of the VCs

00:01:15.520 in the city we were visiting

00:01:17.040 and every one of the private equity company owners

00:01:18.820 and all of the famous startup people.

00:01:21.920 And so when we went there,

00:01:23.160 she just called email,

00:01:24.020 but you know, I have a Stanford MBA

00:01:25.140 and she was a Cambridge student at the time.

00:01:26.780 So a lot of them responded.

00:01:28.360 I mean, we would go to their offices

00:01:29.440 and we would see what they were working on

00:01:31.100 and everything like that.

00:01:32.320 And they know where all the good restaurants are.

00:01:34.380 Well, it's important to never allow yourself

00:01:36.280 to come to Indolence.

00:01:37.240 To do a trip just for idle curiosity,

00:01:39.660 I think is sinful.

00:01:41.580 And so while we can see the world,

00:01:43.680 we need to make sure that we learn

00:01:45.380 how to improve ourselves on these trips.

00:01:48.840 At this point, I was also trying to learn,

00:01:50.320 because working as a VC in South Korea,

00:01:51.660 how some small economies were doing well

00:01:55.260 with their venture capital investing

00:01:57.060 and others were not,

00:01:58.100 because this was very interesting to me,

00:01:59.800 like why you would get some economies

00:02:01.900 creating these giant companies.

00:02:03.120 And just for TLDR of your theory,

00:02:04.580 which I think is very astute,

00:02:06.180 is that basically for a country's startup economy

00:02:10.300 to work well,

00:02:11.000 if they're relatively small

00:02:12.280 and they eventually have to leave,

00:02:14.260 they can't be,

00:02:15.740 they can't have a sufficiently compelling market

00:02:18.180 like South Korea does, 0.97

00:02:19.640 because then basically you go big

00:02:21.880 in your own home market,

00:02:23.240 but never really make yourself ready

00:02:25.220 for an international market.

00:02:26.680 If you have a very, very, very small market

00:02:28.720 like that in Sweden,

00:02:30.220 you immediately have to be international

00:02:31.960 from day one.

00:02:32.940 You need to be so small

00:02:34.720 that the first market you are attempting

00:02:36.620 is an international market.

00:02:38.220 So this means that,

00:02:39.440 this is why areas like Germany and France

00:02:41.500 have such bad startup marketplaces,

00:02:44.680 whereas you get much higher ones in Finland,

00:02:47.240 Sweden, Estonia,

00:02:48.180 stuff like that,

00:02:48.800 because they're so small

00:02:49.880 that the initial market

00:02:51.100 needs to be somewhere else.

00:02:52.540 I think that was a very astute observation

00:02:54.780 on your part.

00:02:56.240 Yeah, well, I appreciate it.

00:02:58.260 So anyway, we go there.

00:02:59.400 The food there is so expensive,

00:03:00.600 it's obscene.

00:03:01.120 We were starving the whole time, basically.

00:03:02.520 I would only eat street food

00:03:03.660 when I was there,

00:03:04.220 or food that the people we were meeting

00:03:05.500 would give us.

00:03:06.100 We ate like cans

00:03:06.820 that we got at the grocery store,

00:03:08.340 but that was okay.

00:03:10.200 Also, this is mostly why, you know,

00:03:11.780 Swedish people are not dreadfully obese,

00:03:14.700 because they can't afford it.

00:03:16.920 Can't afford it.

00:03:18.180 But anyway,

00:03:18.860 I want to talk more

00:03:20.400 on the topic of falling fertility rates

00:03:22.160 in Sweden,

00:03:22.520 because a lot of,

00:03:23.380 for a while,

00:03:23.940 this narrative had existed

00:03:25.040 that in the Nordic countries,

00:03:27.400 in this land of gender equality,

00:03:28.980 there seemed to be

00:03:30.360 some level of resistance

00:03:31.400 to fertility collapse

00:03:32.560 that wasn't seen in countries,

00:03:35.660 you know,

00:03:35.920 like the Catholic countries

00:03:36.900 of Southern Europe,

00:03:37.580 which had lower fertility rates.

00:03:39.200 And so every progressive pointed to it,

00:03:40.560 like,

00:03:40.700 Sweden proves

00:03:42.380 that you can have

00:03:43.500 a very progressive gender policy.

00:03:45.480 You can have men and women

00:03:46.320 treated the same.

00:03:47.140 You can have really heavy socialist policy.

00:03:49.640 I can read this quote

00:03:49.920 from an article on this, right?

00:03:52.040 Even men have become feminists.

00:03:53.700 The state supplies universal daycare

00:03:55.100 and flexible employment

00:03:55.920 for mothers.

00:03:56.820 Fathers take up

00:03:57.420 their share of domestic labor,

00:03:58.660 and both parents

00:03:59.380 are awarded generously

00:04:00.220 from their jobs

00:04:01.380 to raise the next generation.

00:04:03.060 As one 2015 study claimed,

00:04:04.920 it is precisely in quote

00:04:06.520 extraordinarily equal

00:04:08.220 unquote Sweden

00:04:09.500 where family-friendly

00:04:11.180 public policies

00:04:12.300 are especially effective.

00:04:14.380 That we supposedly see

00:04:16.400 how quote

00:04:17.160 the spread of more egalitarian values

00:04:19.600 on the national level

00:04:20.560 and more progressive

00:04:21.560 family-supported policies

00:04:22.800 will have a positive effect

00:04:24.860 on fertility

00:04:25.400 and family stability

00:04:26.680 end quote.

00:04:27.440 The problem is,

00:04:29.780 I guess I'll get to

00:04:30.880 where we are now.

00:04:31.980 Since 2021,

00:04:33.460 the number of births

00:04:34.340 in Sweden

00:04:34.680 is down more than 12%,

00:04:35.980 and the fertility rate

00:04:37.120 has fallen by almost 14%.

00:04:38.920 The country's 2023

00:04:40.760 total fertility rate,

00:04:42.300 a projection of lifetime fertility

00:04:43.560 of all women

00:04:44.220 in a particular year,

00:04:45.700 will surely think

00:04:46.480 below 1.5 children per woman.

00:04:49.220 That's catastrophically low.

00:04:51.180 Marriage rates too

00:04:52.020 have been falling in Sweden

00:04:52.820 for 15 years,

00:04:54.040 precipitously since 2016,

00:04:56.240 and marital unions

00:04:57.080 aren't being replaced

00:04:58.180 by long-term cohabitation.

00:04:59.860 Since the Swedish state

00:05:00.640 began counting such

00:05:01.900 quote unquote

00:05:02.500 consensual unions

00:05:03.460 in 2011,

00:05:04.340 there has been

00:05:05.140 a steady decline

00:05:05.920 in their rate of formation.

00:05:07.280 Most notable

00:05:08.120 are the falling rates

00:05:09.360 of marriage

00:05:09.920 and union formation

00:05:11.340 among parents

00:05:12.300 in 2021.

00:05:13.900 They were doing so

00:05:14.740 at rates of around

00:05:15.600 half the level

00:05:16.260 of just a decade earlier.

00:05:18.100 Fertility and family formation

00:05:19.360 are declining in Norway

00:05:20.220 and Finland

00:05:20.660 even more dramatically.

00:05:22.240 France's 2023

00:05:23.420 fertility figures

00:05:24.380 are especially troubling

00:05:25.340 in the light of the country's

00:05:26.280 recent ability

00:05:26.940 to buck falling fertility

00:05:28.180 trends across Europe.

00:05:29.040 generally credited

00:05:30.520 to its huge

00:05:31.900 family policy budget

00:05:33.240 which amounts

00:05:33.920 to 3.4%

00:05:35.180 of GDP

00:05:35.620 in 2019.

00:05:37.400 So, wow.

00:05:38.380 So, you know,

00:05:38.760 these are measured

00:05:39.500 in chunks

00:05:40.360 of GDP

00:05:41.100 and across

00:05:43.200 these countries

00:05:44.360 that had been

00:05:45.060 implementing

00:05:45.440 these policies,

00:05:46.180 they have begun

00:05:47.320 to see their

00:05:47.840 fertility crash.

00:05:49.380 And

00:05:49.980 we told you.

00:05:52.340 But I want to hear

00:05:54.100 you pontificate

00:05:54.760 on this first.

00:05:58.400 I, yeah,

00:05:59.200 this was very much

00:06:00.160 an I told you so

00:06:00.780 kind of thing

00:06:01.180 because we're like

00:06:01.720 it's not the money,

00:06:02.420 it's not the money,

00:06:02.960 it's not the money,

00:06:03.460 it's the culture

00:06:03.980 and here it is.

00:06:06.360 There's no

00:06:07.220 exogenous celebration

00:06:08.620 of people

00:06:09.680 being parents.

00:06:11.040 I think one of the

00:06:11.640 big problems

00:06:12.080 is there's this dream

00:06:13.360 that you can have

00:06:14.000 a pronatalist culture

00:06:14.920 and everyone can work

00:06:15.820 and everyone can participate

00:06:16.820 in the modern economy

00:06:18.000 and identify

00:06:18.940 as career people.

00:06:20.060 And we really saw that

00:06:21.020 when we visited.

00:06:21.920 You know,

00:06:22.040 there was a lot of that,

00:06:22.840 you know,

00:06:22.940 like, well,

00:06:23.240 no,

00:06:23.380 we're all like

00:06:23.980 very serious people.

00:06:25.060 We work really,

00:06:25.800 really hard,

00:06:26.560 but then,

00:06:26.880 you know,

00:06:27.020 we solve our families,

00:06:28.000 et cetera.

00:06:29.500 But I think this focus

00:06:31.280 on the industrial economy

00:06:35.040 is kind of a core thing

00:06:36.660 that was missed

00:06:37.340 because when you focus

00:06:38.320 on that,

00:06:39.340 you are ultimately punished

00:06:40.800 not only for having kids,

00:06:42.820 but also for getting married,

00:06:43.700 which is also,

00:06:44.380 I think it was,

00:06:44.960 it's really important

00:06:46.420 to highlight

00:06:47.540 that marriage 0.65

00:06:48.440 and even just like

00:06:49.700 unions between people

00:06:51.040 that are long lasting

00:06:51.620 that aren't even

00:06:52.880 necessarily marriages 0.93

00:06:54.080 are plummeting too

00:06:55.500 because these just

00:06:57.120 aren't things

00:06:57.820 that get you ahead

00:06:58.820 in society in Sweden.

00:07:00.440 And if you create

00:07:01.460 a society in which

00:07:02.360 you don't get lauded,

00:07:03.600 you're not celebrated,

00:07:04.580 you're not like

00:07:05.140 the cool people

00:07:05.900 for getting married

00:07:07.420 and or having kids,

00:07:08.500 you're not going to do it 1.00

00:07:10.520 because you're not an idiot. 1.00

00:07:12.300 And I just, 0.99

00:07:13.460 yeah,

00:07:13.720 it's sad

00:07:15.580 and it's frustrating,

00:07:16.540 but it is,

00:07:17.620 we would argue

00:07:18.700 more confirmation

00:07:19.520 that culture

00:07:20.180 is at the core

00:07:21.060 of this issue,

00:07:21.920 the very,

00:07:22.440 very core.

00:07:23.860 Yeah.

00:07:24.500 Well,

00:07:24.940 so I have a lot

00:07:26.120 of friends

00:07:26.400 who were Swedish

00:07:26.800 when I was in college

00:07:27.800 because I went to college

00:07:28.520 in the UK

00:07:28.960 and it was a,

00:07:29.960 you know,

00:07:30.100 St. Andrew is a uniquely

00:07:30.920 diverse in terms

00:07:32.200 of the countries

00:07:32.640 that people went to.

00:07:33.160 So I had a number

00:07:33.540 of Swedish friends.

00:07:34.640 And one of the things

00:07:35.100 they marked to me

00:07:35.720 that I remember

00:07:36.100 finding interesting

00:07:36.720 is that they never

00:07:37.560 really planned

00:07:38.120 on getting married,

00:07:38.820 my Swedish friends.

00:07:39.440 They explained

00:07:39.760 that culturally

00:07:40.380 it wasn't normal

00:07:41.440 that it was in

00:07:42.760 their generation

00:07:43.340 to get married.

00:07:43.960 You know,

00:07:44.220 you would meet someone

00:07:45.280 and you would do

00:07:45.660 this cohabitation thing

00:07:46.820 that they were describing

00:07:47.800 in the article,

00:07:48.340 but marriage wasn't

00:07:49.260 something they expected

00:07:49.940 from their lives.

00:07:52.040 And this is one

00:07:52.660 of those areas

00:07:53.180 where I feel like

00:07:53.800 as we have gotten rid

00:07:54.860 of these old structures

00:07:55.900 like marriage,

00:07:57.260 we at first are like,

00:07:58.780 what's the point?

00:07:59.280 I mean,

00:07:59.480 you can have kids

00:08:00.080 outside of marriage.

00:08:00.840 You can have,

00:08:01.540 you know,

00:08:02.440 it's so many of these,

00:08:03.820 I forget what it's called,

00:08:04.560 the something fence.

00:08:05.660 It's so many of these fences

00:08:06.660 that we just removed.

00:08:07.460 Chesterton's fence?

00:08:08.000 Chesterton fence.

00:08:08.840 Like we don't know

00:08:09.440 why the fence is there,

00:08:10.320 so let's just get rid of it.

00:08:11.700 And then we are now learning

00:08:13.140 why all of these

00:08:14.020 cultural fences were there,

00:08:16.080 why we did these things.

00:08:18.440 I think so often in society,

00:08:20.320 people will say,

00:08:21.640 why did people do this thing

00:08:23.040 that seemed to hurt

00:08:23.700 some people?

00:08:24.600 Why did people slut shame? 1.00

00:08:26.220 Why did people pressure Spencers? 0.50

00:08:28.400 Like why did they so degrade

00:08:29.660 women who didn't get married? 1.00

00:08:31.200 Why did people laud mothers? 1.00

00:08:33.020 Why did we give men 1.00

00:08:35.500 special roles in society?

00:08:36.860 Why like,

00:08:38.600 typically if something

00:08:39.540 seems grossly unfair

00:08:41.280 or seems to be

00:08:42.800 making people unhappy,

00:08:43.500 like why did we regularly

00:08:44.600 have to fast?

00:08:45.560 It turns out that we were

00:08:47.000 doing it for a reason.

00:08:48.680 And I think that this is

00:08:49.720 just broadly something

00:08:51.000 that we're seeing

00:08:51.700 across society right now

00:08:53.600 is that a lot of these

00:08:54.940 cultures that thought

00:08:55.940 that they could culturally

00:08:58.120 innovate in so far

00:08:59.540 as just removing rules.

00:09:01.780 Removing rules

00:09:02.560 isn't cultural innovation.

00:09:04.460 Removing rules

00:09:05.440 is to cultural innovation

00:09:07.460 what tearing down a building,

00:09:09.860 like putting a wrecking ball

00:09:10.800 through a building

00:09:11.520 is to architecture.

00:09:14.580 It's not cultural innovation.

00:09:16.220 It's just destroying things.

00:09:18.400 And then you reap

00:09:19.020 consequences of that.

00:09:20.340 And as we have pointed out,

00:09:21.200 you cannot pay people

00:09:22.520 to have kids.

00:09:23.500 And I'm going to get this

00:09:24.260 to the Korean numbers

00:09:25.120 because it's like

00:09:25.660 people do not get this.

00:09:28.440 They keep trying to pay.

00:09:30.140 So in another article

00:09:31.320 that came out recently

00:09:32.340 in Korea,

00:09:33.780 they're now giving out

00:09:35.940 $20,000

00:09:38.280 or $22,000 per kit

00:09:41.360 to increase fertility rates

00:09:43.980 in subsidies

00:09:45.200 and stuff like that.

00:09:46.000 That is so wild.

00:09:46.640 So we are now

00:09:47.760 entering the stage

00:09:48.660 where I think a lot of people

00:09:49.360 are like,

00:09:49.820 what if you tried

00:09:50.740 meaningful cash subsidies?

00:09:52.720 Like enough

00:09:53.240 that would make a difference.

00:09:54.120 Yeah, and that's

00:09:54.540 a hefty chunk of change.

00:09:55.720 And is that up front?

00:09:58.000 It's subsidies and stuff.

00:09:59.200 So not exactly.

00:10:00.780 I mean, most economists

00:10:01.880 argue that it's most effective

00:10:03.200 when it's up front.

00:10:04.060 But anyway,

00:10:04.900 let's not quibble about that

00:10:06.340 right now.

00:10:06.900 Let's not quibble about it.

00:10:07.440 I mean, they've spent

00:10:08.240 $22 billion in the last 16 years

00:10:10.020 on trying to get

00:10:10.540 their fertility rates up.

00:10:11.660 And it doesn't work.

00:10:13.580 You cannot do this.

00:10:14.700 You must do

00:10:15.320 cultural innovation.

00:10:16.660 But again,

00:10:17.320 cultural innovation

00:10:18.060 is not just

00:10:19.060 tearing down culture, okay?

00:10:20.560 It's not just

00:10:21.220 putting a wrecking ball

00:10:22.000 through things.

00:10:23.300 It's new rules.

00:10:24.740 And not just rules

00:10:25.540 to make you feel good,

00:10:26.800 rules that motivate

00:10:27.660 the continuation of our species.

00:10:29.040 When progressives

00:10:30.520 create rules,

00:10:31.400 and they do create rules,

00:10:33.500 all of the rules

00:10:34.520 are structured around

00:10:35.540 feeling better.

00:10:37.040 They are all about

00:10:38.020 knocking down

00:10:38.720 the building faster.

00:10:39.880 They are about

00:10:40.520 removing things in society

00:10:42.020 that might create pain.

00:10:43.900 And I think one of the things

00:10:45.380 that I constantly see,

00:10:46.980 and this actually goes

00:10:47.640 to the video we filmed

00:10:48.400 recently around Adam and Eve

00:10:49.500 to a comment you made,

00:10:50.580 like,

00:10:51.040 did people in the past

00:10:52.040 really have it that much worse

00:10:53.340 than we have it today?

00:10:54.500 And it's like,

00:10:55.040 yeah, yeah,

00:10:56.520 like really, really,

00:10:57.600 really, really, really,

00:10:58.460 really, really did.

00:10:59.480 And they were happier.

00:11:01.400 And how were they happier?

00:11:03.280 Because they contextualize

00:11:04.460 their lives differently.

00:11:05.280 Because this way

00:11:05.980 that we live today,

00:11:07.480 where we contextualize

00:11:09.460 it as a struggle,

00:11:10.280 like, oh my God,

00:11:11.080 I can't believe

00:11:11.580 I have to go to work.

00:11:12.960 That somebody would have

00:11:13.740 this mindset

00:11:14.600 of, like,

00:11:15.720 the expectation

00:11:16.840 of privileges

00:11:18.040 that even the most

00:11:19.520 spoiled aristocrat

00:11:20.820 wouldn't have had

00:11:21.640 a hundred years ago.

00:11:22.520 shock when they learn

00:11:24.900 they actually need

00:11:25.660 to work throughout

00:11:26.300 their lives.

00:11:27.240 I think shows

00:11:28.320 the level of indolence

00:11:30.820 we have allowed to spread

00:11:32.040 was in mainstream society.

00:11:34.580 And it's something

00:11:35.260 we need to fix

00:11:35.980 and we need to fix it.

00:11:36.960 Where do you fix this?

00:11:37.740 Where does all of this fix

00:11:39.040 is at the educational level.

00:11:40.360 And we're so close

00:11:41.100 to getting our educational system done.

00:11:42.520 I'm really excited

00:11:43.140 with where I am now on this.

00:11:44.860 I've got some big challenges

00:11:45.660 on it right now,

00:11:46.160 but I'm excited to move forward.

00:11:47.220 So excited.

00:11:48.380 We're getting close.

00:11:49.240 We're getting really close.

00:11:50.700 But yeah,

00:11:51.120 the educational system

00:11:52.120 is the core of all this

00:11:52.860 because where are people

00:11:53.620 learning this culture?

00:11:54.560 Where is culture

00:11:55.080 being normalized?

00:11:55.960 Where are these

00:11:56.520 high fertility cultures

00:11:57.980 being erased right now?

00:11:59.720 It's not our schools.

00:12:03.580 That's what's happening.

00:12:04.400 So it is horrifying

00:12:07.600 that we are

00:12:09.640 seeing this happen.

00:12:10.920 But what I want to

00:12:11.560 emphasize, though,

00:12:12.460 is we're not saying

00:12:13.580 ha ha,

00:12:14.440 like everyone pointed

00:12:15.180 to Sweden

00:12:15.740 as proof that progressive

00:12:16.920 culture could be

00:12:18.240 pro-natalist

00:12:19.540 and they were wrong

00:12:21.080 and it's because

00:12:21.540 they gave women rights

00:12:22.960 and education

00:12:23.840 and jobs

00:12:24.980 because we argue

00:12:26.740 that you can have

00:12:28.720 progressive values

00:12:30.040 and a sustainable culture.

00:12:35.500 Like you don't have

00:12:36.060 to have demographic values.

00:12:36.820 I don't think you like

00:12:37.060 progressive values.

00:12:38.280 You can't have gender equality 1.00

00:12:40.040 and sustainable fertility rates,

00:12:42.420 but the gender equality

00:12:43.600 you have

00:12:44.380 doesn't look like

00:12:45.360 progressive gender equality.

00:12:46.400 Yeah, it looks like

00:12:47.460 a very different kind

00:12:48.180 of gender equality

00:12:48.880 for sure.

00:12:49.680 Yeah, progressive gender equality. 1.00

00:12:51.100 You know, we have

00:12:52.160 gender equality

00:12:53.700 in our family, basically.

00:12:54.900 You know, she's CEO

00:12:56.060 of our companies.

00:12:56.860 She co-hosts our podcast.

00:12:57.920 She co-writes our books.

00:12:59.280 But it is not

00:13:00.580 the type of gender equality

00:13:02.280 that feminists 1.00

00:13:03.540 want to structure society around,

00:13:05.400 which is a totally

00:13:06.060 atomized gender equality

00:13:07.540 where the white

00:13:08.580 works separately

00:13:09.340 from the husband

00:13:10.020 and the kids

00:13:10.840 and basically

00:13:11.920 in every moment

00:13:12.560 you do whatever

00:13:13.240 you feel like doing.

00:13:14.260 Atomization is disempowerment.

00:13:17.240 It's so sad.

00:13:17.700 Yeah, this is something

00:13:18.860 I constantly see.

00:13:20.580 You know, I was seeing

00:13:21.180 somebody talk recently

00:13:22.280 about how they have

00:13:22.960 all these young friends

00:13:23.720 and like none of the young friends

00:13:24.760 they know want to have kids

00:13:25.580 and they'll say that,

00:13:26.260 well, we can't afford kids 0.84

00:13:27.060 and they're like,

00:13:27.460 what do you mean?

00:13:28.680 Like you are a tech worker

00:13:30.040 who you have a job

00:13:31.080 at Facebook

00:13:31.540 and, you know,

00:13:33.060 and they're like,

00:13:33.360 well, I just can't afford

00:13:34.000 to raise them

00:13:34.460 within San Francisco,

00:13:35.600 blah, blah, blah.

00:13:36.220 And what's really being said

00:13:37.740 in a lot of these cases

00:13:38.760 is I cannot have kids

00:13:40.580 without incurring sacrifices

00:13:41.900 into my lifestyle.

00:13:42.660 And that is true.

00:13:46.260 And I think that

00:13:47.620 that is a good thing.

00:13:49.540 I think that we are

00:13:50.700 culling the portion

00:13:51.560 of the population

00:13:52.260 that is incapable

00:13:53.240 of sacrificing

00:13:54.820 for another person

00:13:56.060 is a good thing.

00:13:57.980 But I don't think

00:13:58.940 that we fully alert people

00:14:00.940 to the dangers

00:14:01.680 that they're walking

00:14:02.380 into around all this.

00:14:04.000 And I think that that's really

00:14:04.880 what we're trying to do.

00:14:05.880 You know, we're not out there

00:14:06.760 saying we should have

00:14:08.840 all these pressures

00:14:09.540 to have kids

00:14:10.300 in society again,

00:14:11.700 but we are saying is

00:14:13.060 if that's the only way

00:14:14.220 to motivate high fertility

00:14:15.760 or sustainable fertility,

00:14:18.380 the groups,

00:14:19.220 the mindset

00:14:20.100 around not doing that

00:14:21.700 is going to disappear

00:14:22.480 from the human race.

00:14:23.820 Yeah.

00:14:24.160 Also, this one last generation

00:14:26.580 and this one last period

00:14:27.740 of prosperity

00:14:28.280 could live like infants 0.82

00:14:29.560 sucking their thumbs

00:14:31.060 and crying all day, 0.99

00:14:32.260 which is really

00:14:32.980 what a lot of them do.

00:14:34.040 You know, it is,

00:14:35.620 it is,

00:14:36.680 it's actually interesting to me.

00:14:37.780 I now think that,

00:14:38.660 you know,

00:14:38.820 I know some parents today

00:14:39.820 where they'd see it

00:14:40.620 as a sin

00:14:41.560 against this urban monoculture

00:14:43.980 to stop your kids 0.99

00:14:45.100 from sucking their thumb 0.98

00:14:46.080 because it's what

00:14:46.860 they want to do.

00:14:47.800 How dare you stop your child

00:14:49.320 doing something

00:14:49.940 they want to do?

00:14:51.400 And you tell me.

00:14:51.820 And also like,

00:14:52.400 they're not doing it 1.00

00:14:53.560 because they're dumb 1.00

00:14:56.040 or broken in some way. 1.00

00:14:57.960 They are doing it

00:14:59.120 because they lack

00:15:00.020 sufficient responsibilities

00:15:01.380 and purpose in life

00:15:02.400 to have something bigger

00:15:03.240 to care about.

00:15:03.860 I remember being

00:15:05.600 so much more neurotic

00:15:06.980 and full of anxiety

00:15:08.760 and I can barely

00:15:09.420 leave the house, Malcolm.

00:15:10.660 And then I met you

00:15:12.420 and you and I

00:15:14.120 embarked on a life

00:15:14.860 in which both of us

00:15:15.700 had much bigger things

00:15:16.780 to care about.

00:15:17.700 And the first bigger thing

00:15:19.020 I came to care about

00:15:19.980 was you.

00:15:20.860 And it was amazing

00:15:21.640 how transformative

00:15:22.300 that alone was for me

00:15:24.360 in terms of just

00:15:25.540 giving me something else

00:15:27.820 that was a bigger deal 1.00

00:15:28.880 than my own dumb neuroses. 0.99

00:15:30.960 And when you have 0.99

00:15:32.000 nothing else in life,

00:15:33.320 when you have

00:15:33.660 no other responsibilities,

00:15:35.020 no other people

00:15:35.660 who are counting on you,

00:15:37.140 no other bigger values

00:15:38.300 you're striving to serve,

00:15:39.600 no big challenges

00:15:40.220 you've taken on,

00:15:41.100 no children to take care of.

00:15:43.760 Yeah, the only thing

00:15:44.880 that's left is your demons.

00:15:46.620 It's terrifying.

00:15:48.220 We're not trying

00:15:49.200 to delegitimize

00:15:50.580 the anxiety

00:15:51.700 and suffering

00:15:52.540 and neuroses

00:15:53.540 and infantilization

00:15:54.600 of people 0.97

00:15:55.960 who have been sucked 0.59

00:15:57.640 into mainstream society

00:15:59.840 and this atomization

00:16:00.760 and this mental health

00:16:03.280 simplification of life.

00:16:04.640 It's just a natural result.

00:16:06.720 If they could get out of it,

00:16:07.540 it would probably go away.

00:16:10.300 Well, and this thing

00:16:11.220 that you're focusing on,

00:16:12.400 this thing that you're living for,

00:16:14.040 right,

00:16:14.400 whether it's your kids

00:16:15.160 or your husband

00:16:15.680 or your neuroses,

00:16:17.000 it expands

00:16:18.120 to fill your life

00:16:19.360 and your mental landscape.

00:16:20.980 100%.

00:16:21.500 I'm sure everyone

00:16:22.120 watching this podcast

00:16:22.860 knows people who do,

00:16:24.480 like they're retired

00:16:25.320 or whatever.

00:16:27.240 Like they just have

00:16:28.140 absolutely nothing to do.

00:16:29.380 But to them,

00:16:30.180 their days are full.

00:16:31.160 Their days are full

00:16:32.060 from wake up to go to sleep

00:16:34.240 and they're stressed out about it

00:16:35.220 and they're like,

00:16:35.580 oh, I've got so much stuff

00:16:37.100 and first I make my drink

00:16:39.840 and then I have to shower

00:16:41.200 and then by then

00:16:41.940 it's like 1.30 p.m.

00:16:43.280 You know what I mean?

00:16:44.400 If you live

00:16:45.620 to suppress your demons,

00:16:48.080 your demons become

00:16:49.020 the size of your entire life.

00:16:50.720 Oh, totally.

00:16:51.460 And that is

00:16:52.240 the way the human brain works

00:16:54.360 and that is what has been

00:16:55.500 elevated by our current society

00:16:57.860 because it's told people

00:16:58.840 to live for what makes them happy.

00:17:00.340 And, you know,

00:17:00.520 we've talked about this

00:17:01.060 in other recent episodes.

00:17:02.300 But I also want to talk

00:17:03.340 about something else here

00:17:04.060 which is interesting.

00:17:05.220 So Sweden had this phenomenon

00:17:07.540 as is the Nordic countries

00:17:08.960 where they had a fertility boost 0.97

00:17:10.660 in the 2000s

00:17:11.700 and it's led to people believing

00:17:13.420 that they might have

00:17:15.600 another fertility boost,

00:17:16.720 naively,

00:17:17.340 like the demographers.

00:17:18.540 Like a new surge.

00:17:21.080 So why isn't that going to happen?

00:17:22.880 Because it's actually important

00:17:23.740 to understand

00:17:24.180 why this isn't going to happen.

00:17:25.080 So there's two types of...

00:17:25.600 Well, I like that you're coming out

00:17:26.420 and saying that

00:17:27.140 because then you can be proven wrong.

00:17:29.040 You know,

00:17:29.280 so many people never do that.

00:17:31.700 Measurement,

00:17:31.960 you can do...

00:17:32.600 There's cohort measurement

00:17:33.500 and then measurement

00:17:34.400 among any slice in time.

00:17:36.580 Usually on this channel

00:17:37.780 when we're doing fertility stuff,

00:17:39.120 we're doing it in slices of time.

00:17:40.260 Like what's the FTR

00:17:41.060 in a given year?

00:17:42.460 But when you're doing cohort,

00:17:44.060 what would happen in a cohort,

00:17:45.320 just so you sort of understand

00:17:46.320 how this works,

00:17:47.340 is women the ages of... 1.00

00:17:50.540 How do I explain this well?

00:17:52.860 Okay, so within one generation,

00:17:55.240 a bunch of women 1.00

00:17:56.580 might put off having kids

00:17:58.360 until they're a bit older

00:17:59.960 due to like economic concerns

00:18:01.900 or something like that.

00:18:03.040 So you have a temporary depression,

00:18:06.100 right?

00:18:06.480 Or a war or something like that.

00:18:08.580 And this is discussed a lot

00:18:09.600 in Latin America,

00:18:10.600 in Latin America,

00:18:11.540 for example,

00:18:12.360 like a lot of...

00:18:13.220 The most births

00:18:14.380 that are no longer happening

00:18:15.360 are unwanted teen births

00:18:18.020 to, you know,

00:18:18.560 unmarried young women.

00:18:19.340 No, this is really

00:18:19.460 what I'm talking about.

00:18:20.420 Well, no,

00:18:20.760 but what I'm saying

00:18:21.300 is they're hoping

00:18:22.000 that they're going to get a surge

00:18:23.140 just, well, similar to...

00:18:24.520 Because they're like,

00:18:25.920 oh, well, don't worry.

00:18:26.760 Those women will have children. 1.00

00:18:28.120 They're just going to do it

00:18:28.800 when they're actually ready now

00:18:30.180 because they've...

00:18:30.640 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:18:30.980 Which may happen.

00:18:32.100 I don't think it will,

00:18:32.860 but it may.

00:18:33.740 And so Latin America

00:18:34.600 still has hope.

00:18:35.880 Sweden doesn't 0.97

00:18:36.400 because you can do...

00:18:37.980 I thought you just said

00:18:38.500 they were hoping for a surge. 1.00

00:18:40.420 Well, idiots are 1.00

00:18:41.300 who don't look at the data. 1.00

00:18:42.640 Okay.

00:18:43.800 Everyone else

00:18:44.620 is giving up hope.

00:18:45.480 The 2000s

00:18:46.180 was caused by this.

00:18:47.140 It was caused by women 1.00

00:18:48.080 putting off having kids

00:18:49.060 until a later age,

00:18:50.180 but you can do cohort analysis

00:18:51.780 to see if that's happening

00:18:52.900 and it's not happening.

00:18:55.180 So we know

00:18:55.940 that each cohort,

00:18:57.100 each age cohort of women

00:18:58.480 during their reproductive lifespan

00:19:01.300 within these countries

00:19:02.980 is actually decreasing

00:19:04.360 every year,

00:19:06.420 basically,

00:19:06.940 I think,

00:19:07.140 for a very long time.

00:19:08.540 And so we're actually

00:19:09.300 not seeing that.

00:19:10.060 That is not what is causing

00:19:11.240 this particular drop

00:19:12.560 in fertility rate.

00:19:13.720 So it is not that

00:19:14.340 these women are just waiting 1.00

00:19:15.460 to have kids later.

00:19:16.900 It is that they are just

00:19:18.500 choosing not to have kids.

00:19:20.000 Although even if that were the case,

00:19:21.760 they would have fewer kids

00:19:22.760 because they're going to have

00:19:23.660 more fertility problems.

00:19:26.260 Yeah,

00:19:26.840 but there's types of waiting,

00:19:28.960 like,

00:19:29.280 okay,

00:19:29.560 for example,

00:19:30.440 during war

00:19:31.160 or something like that.

00:19:32.040 Yeah,

00:19:32.320 no,

00:19:32.580 yeah,

00:19:32.700 like waiting for a couple years

00:19:33.840 where it's not

00:19:34.380 that big a deal.

00:19:35.960 But that's not what we're seeing

00:19:37.200 in the data here.

00:19:38.120 And it's very important

00:19:39.240 to point that out

00:19:40.120 because demographers

00:19:41.540 on the left

00:19:42.300 love to lie.

00:19:43.640 Like,

00:19:43.760 they just pretend

00:19:44.540 like it's not an issue at all

00:19:45.960 or it can be solved

00:19:46.700 with immigration.

00:19:47.720 And in both cases,

00:19:48.880 that's just not true.

00:19:50.120 I was reading this piece

00:19:51.120 that really chilled me

00:19:52.980 about it was in a UK thing.

00:19:56.120 And it was like,

00:19:56.720 oh,

00:19:57.020 all these people saying,

00:19:58.800 you know,

00:19:59.080 fertility rates are a big problem

00:20:01.220 are lying to you

00:20:02.460 because the population

00:20:03.360 of the UK is growing.

00:20:04.760 And then in the same article,

00:20:06.080 it also said,

00:20:06.740 we haven't had a stable fertility rate

00:20:08.760 since the 1973,

00:20:10.640 since the 1970s.

00:20:11.860 And I was like,

00:20:12.480 what,

00:20:12.920 what,

00:20:13.280 how did,

00:20:14.080 then is that not a problem?

00:20:14.980 And they go,

00:20:15.540 well,

00:20:15.740 because all people living

00:20:17.960 in the UK

00:20:18.520 are of equal value,

00:20:20.040 it doesn't matter

00:20:20.920 that we're using immigration

00:20:22.420 to make up

00:20:23.180 for this fertility

00:20:23.980 downfall we have,

00:20:25.900 like this fertility gap

00:20:26.940 we have.

00:20:27.560 And,

00:20:28.020 you know,

00:20:28.140 this is the type

00:20:28.740 of twisted logic

00:20:29.620 that people

00:20:30.080 who have predated

00:20:30.900 on other cultures

00:20:31.680 for their own laziness

00:20:33.980 into secure

00:20:34.980 lifestyles of indolence

00:20:36.400 have always used.

00:20:37.180 Oh,

00:20:37.340 we're uplifting

00:20:37.960 the poor savages

00:20:39.360 or something like that

00:20:40.360 by bringing them over

00:20:41.660 and erasing their culture 0.89

00:20:43.000 and marching their children

00:20:44.760 through the streets.

00:20:45.660 You know,

00:20:46.260 it's,

00:20:46.660 it's in celebrations

00:20:48.280 of European cultural victory

00:20:50.020 over the cultures

00:20:50.920 that these people came from.

00:20:51.880 It is not a good thing

00:20:53.640 or something

00:20:54.100 that should be lauded

00:20:55.060 that you as a cultural group

00:20:57.940 have to import people 0.99

00:20:59.820 who have done

00:21:00.460 some form of labor

00:21:01.660 that you have chosen

00:21:02.940 not to do

00:21:03.700 to support your lifestyle.

00:21:05.420 That is not a thing

00:21:06.600 of honor or value

00:21:08.420 that is a bad thing.

00:21:09.700 Don't be proud.

00:21:10.820 Yeah,

00:21:11.200 don't be proud of that.

00:21:12.240 And,

00:21:12.420 and you'll see this constantly,

00:21:13.640 you know,

00:21:13.820 in the EU reports

00:21:14.860 and everything like that.

00:21:15.660 They constantly are trying

00:21:16.880 to hide the scope

00:21:18.580 and scale of the problem

00:21:20.060 and they do it

00:21:20.620 by saying stuff like,

00:21:21.460 well,

00:21:21.600 look at when their birth rates

00:21:22.580 went up in the past.

00:21:23.320 And I was like,

00:21:23.620 that was because

00:21:24.060 of a cohort issue.

00:21:25.120 And we know

00:21:25.800 that's not the case.

00:21:26.540 We can look at

00:21:27.220 the bigger data now.

00:21:28.280 We know that's not the case.

00:21:29.960 And then they're like,

00:21:30.800 well,

00:21:31.260 how do you know

00:21:31.760 there's not going to be

00:21:32.260 a sudden cultural change?

00:21:33.340 And it's like,

00:21:33.640 because I can ask the people

00:21:34.740 who haven't had kids yet,

00:21:35.740 do you plan to have kids?

00:21:36.780 And I can tell.

00:21:38.160 Anyone who's out there

00:21:39.460 engaging with society

00:21:40.220 can tell how big

00:21:40.860 this problem is.

00:21:42.000 And one of the biggest things

00:21:43.240 that we're trying to do

00:21:44.020 with the pro-natalist movement

00:21:45.160 and the pro-natalist foundation

00:21:46.600 is just to edify

00:21:50.060 government and policymakers

00:21:52.300 that subsidies don't work.

00:21:54.800 They do not work.

00:21:56.420 I can put a graph on the screen

00:21:57.520 that will show you

00:21:58.380 studies done on subsidies.

00:22:00.740 And you will see

00:22:01.560 a direct correlation

00:22:02.700 between the size

00:22:03.620 and the margin of error

00:22:04.360 of the study

00:22:04.880 and its probability

00:22:05.900 of saying that subsidies help.

00:22:09.100 The studies

00:22:10.000 with almost no margin of error

00:22:11.480 almost always show

00:22:12.140 that subsidies are irrelevant.

00:22:14.480 And this is very important

00:22:16.120 because every year

00:22:17.620 you waste trying to solve

00:22:18.960 this problem with subsidies

00:22:19.900 is a year you get closer

00:22:21.720 to this becoming

00:22:22.540 an impossible problem to solve.

00:22:24.460 A year you come closer

00:22:25.660 to becoming a country

00:22:26.880 like Korea now 0.99

00:22:27.600 where 60% of the population

00:22:28.800 is over the age of 40.

00:22:30.040 They cannot solve

00:22:30.960 this problem anymore.

00:22:32.100 It would be almost impossible

00:22:33.320 at this stage.

00:22:34.340 And yet they're still

00:22:34.840 having a 13%

00:22:35.880 year over year

00:22:36.860 in 2023 fertility collapse.

00:22:40.200 And what can you do

00:22:41.340 at that point?

00:22:41.860 You can't do anything

00:22:43.060 outside of like

00:22:43.860 dictatorial or fascist efforts.

00:22:46.480 Well, that's the problem.

00:22:47.320 It's like their

00:22:48.140 culture can be

00:22:51.280 a good sustainable solution

00:22:53.040 and it really is there.

00:22:55.060 And the scary thing

00:22:56.760 is that governments

00:22:57.420 are also like 1.00

00:22:58.900 apparently too dumb 1.00

00:23:00.400 to figure that out. 1.00

00:23:01.520 So the next dumb solution 0.99

00:23:03.960 after the current dumb solution 0.99

00:23:05.500 which is too much money 0.98

00:23:06.600 or more money

00:23:07.320 or whatever

00:23:07.760 is,

00:23:09.720 oh, let's start

00:23:10.420 coercing people.

00:23:11.420 Let's start taking away

00:23:12.220 their rights.

00:23:12.940 But that's what China 0.96

00:23:13.520 has gone to.

00:23:14.120 That's what Iran 1.00

00:23:14.600 has gone to.

00:23:15.320 And it just,

00:23:15.840 we know that that's

00:23:17.080 what comes next.

00:23:17.780 Not the correct solution

00:23:18.820 which is a promotion

00:23:19.680 of high fertility

00:23:20.400 cultural groups.

00:23:21.300 But you know why

00:23:22.400 they won't go to

00:23:23.500 the promotion

00:23:23.980 of high fertility

00:23:24.440 cultural group next?

00:23:26.040 There's a reason.

00:23:27.300 Because it undermines

00:23:28.460 their sovereignty.

00:23:30.920 Close.

00:23:32.120 High fertility

00:23:32.780 cultural groups

00:23:33.520 because the world today,

00:23:34.700 everywhere in the world

00:23:35.540 is dominated

00:23:36.420 by some iteration

00:23:37.620 of the urban monoculture.

00:23:39.060 Even China 0.53

00:23:40.120 to a large extent.

00:23:41.520 At least the elite

00:23:42.200 ruling class.

00:23:42.860 You know,

00:23:42.960 a lot of them

00:23:43.240 were educated

00:23:43.660 in the U.S.

00:23:44.280 and stuff like that.

00:23:45.040 So they have these

00:23:45.740 urban monocultural

00:23:47.660 value sets.

00:23:48.900 Well,

00:23:49.580 that's the lowest

00:23:50.420 fertility rate culture 0.54

00:23:51.200 in the world.

00:23:51.900 And so

00:23:52.480 it is definitionally,

00:23:55.080 the interests

00:23:55.640 of the elites

00:23:56.280 are definitionally

00:23:57.360 opposed

00:23:58.000 to the groups

00:23:59.120 that they would

00:23:59.820 need to elevate

00:24:00.580 and the groups

00:24:01.960 they would need

00:24:02.460 to protect

00:24:03.180 if they're going

00:24:04.300 to fight

00:24:05.060 their fertility rate.

00:24:06.340 If you say

00:24:06.780 you need to protect

00:24:07.780 the high fertility groups

00:24:08.900 and they say,

00:24:09.440 okay,

00:24:09.880 show me these groups.

00:24:11.000 And I go,

00:24:11.440 well,

00:24:11.520 they exist really

00:24:12.200 in two categories.

00:24:13.040 One is conservative

00:24:14.420 religious groups.

00:24:15.800 So you're conservative

00:24:16.460 Jews,

00:24:17.260 you're conservative

00:24:17.800 Muslims,

00:24:18.540 you're conservative

00:24:19.000 Christians. 0.51

00:24:19.440 And they go,

00:24:19.800 oh,

00:24:19.940 well,

00:24:20.060 we don't like them.

00:24:21.300 They're backwards. 0.87

00:24:21.980 They do all the naughty things.

00:24:23.360 They follow all these old rules

00:24:24.780 that don't really matter

00:24:26.040 in our society anymore.

00:24:27.180 And it's like,

00:24:27.560 well,

00:24:27.740 apparently they matter

00:24:28.540 for something.

00:24:29.580 But even those groups

00:24:30.540 are crashing infertility,

00:24:31.800 right?

00:24:32.060 As we talk about

00:24:32.820 in an upcoming article

00:24:33.780 that we're going to do

00:24:34.560 in Aporia.

00:24:35.640 But there's another group

00:24:37.000 and they go,

00:24:37.260 oh,

00:24:37.480 okay,

00:24:37.680 okay,

00:24:37.900 there's another group.

00:24:38.880 And I'm like,

00:24:39.120 this group actually

00:24:39.700 largely aligns

00:24:40.560 with your value sets.

00:24:41.480 And they go,

00:24:41.800 oh,

00:24:41.960 okay,

00:24:42.220 okay,

00:24:42.440 this is actually

00:24:43.080 really good.

00:24:44.240 And they're like,

00:24:44.600 what do they look like?

00:24:45.580 And I go,

00:24:45.960 well,

00:24:46.520 they look like families

00:24:47.400 like ours,

00:24:47.920 families like Elon's family.

00:24:49.580 Families,

00:24:50.320 they're these high tech,

00:24:51.860 weird dissident groups

00:24:53.680 that are trying

00:24:54.480 to recreate

00:24:55.600 new cultural structures.

00:24:57.480 And they go,

00:24:57.880 oh,

00:24:58.040 well, 0.98

00:24:58.160 we especially hate them.

00:24:59.920 Did you not know?

00:25:01.700 And we're like,

00:25:02.220 what are you talking about?

00:25:03.460 Like,

00:25:03.640 he's trying to fix

00:25:04.500 like global warming

00:25:05.540 and stuff like that.

00:25:06.480 Maybe,

00:25:07.060 you know,

00:25:07.460 not in the best possible way,

00:25:08.360 but he's trying to.

00:25:09.720 But they're like,

00:25:10.160 yeah,

00:25:10.400 but did you know

00:25:11.180 that he,

00:25:12.240 and you as well,

00:25:13.400 I've heard you do this.

00:25:14.600 He promotes freedom of speech.

00:25:16.640 I've heard that naughty people

00:25:18.780 speak at your pronatalist events.

00:25:20.460 You just let anyone

00:25:21.620 speak at these events?

00:25:23.280 Anyone?

00:25:23.660 Yes,

00:25:23.940 we just let anyone

00:25:24.680 because we believe

00:25:25.440 that bad ideas will fail

00:25:26.800 and good ideas will succeed.

00:25:28.920 And,

00:25:29.440 and,

00:25:29.620 and I'm sorry

00:25:30.320 that that is so threatening to you,

00:25:32.460 but I understand

00:25:33.380 why it's threatening to you

00:25:34.300 because you have a chokehold

00:25:35.600 on the media.

00:25:36.340 You have a chokehold

00:25:37.160 in the education system.

00:25:38.320 As soon as one cultural group 0.99

00:25:40.360 has achieved a chokehold

00:25:41.380 on all of these places

00:25:42.980 where information

00:25:43.820 is distributed in society,

00:25:45.720 nothing becomes more

00:25:47.300 threatening to that group

00:25:48.980 than a free informational marketplace.

00:25:51.200 You allow naughty ideas

00:25:52.480 to be said yes

00:25:53.200 because if those ideas are bad,

00:25:54.960 they will fail.

00:25:55.560 But if those ideas

00:25:56.180 are only bad

00:25:56.840 insofar as they threaten you,

00:25:58.700 i.e.

00:25:59.480 falling fertility rates

00:26:00.420 are actually a problem

00:26:01.260 and people should be worried.

00:26:02.640 I had a professor at Harvard

00:26:03.840 tell me that if it was known

00:26:05.360 that if she cared about this,

00:26:06.580 she could be fired,

00:26:07.440 even from a tenured position.

00:26:09.080 That is how severely

00:26:10.660 people are trying

00:26:11.280 to suppress these ideas.

00:26:12.260 And I think that people

00:26:12.940 don't understand

00:26:14.020 how negatively

00:26:15.060 this idea of falling

00:26:16.320 fertility rates is.

00:26:18.160 And it's terrifying,

00:26:19.660 but it's the world

00:26:20.300 we live in today.

00:26:22.240 Yikes.

00:26:23.400 Well, I mean,

00:26:23.840 what are your...

00:26:24.360 I guess my parting thoughts are

00:26:27.020 this is culture.

00:26:29.200 Culture, culture.

00:26:30.100 Culture, culture.

00:26:31.020 We told you.

00:26:32.160 Culture.

00:26:33.300 Please pay attention.

00:26:34.540 It's culture.

00:26:35.940 And the only way

00:26:36.380 culture is so inexpensive.

00:26:37.660 It's so affordable.

00:26:39.180 Like, come on.

00:26:41.140 What's so affordable?

00:26:42.320 Culture.

00:26:43.000 Like, cultural interventions

00:26:44.000 from a policy standpoint.

00:26:45.420 Vis-a-vis.

00:26:46.000 Oh, yeah.

00:26:46.020 Make kids watch

00:26:46.840 those old coronet films

00:26:48.180 about how Jimmy

00:26:48.860 needs to get married

00:26:49.880 and the importance

00:26:52.100 of having kids.

00:26:53.660 Yeah, and how to date.

00:26:54.760 Make walls.

00:26:55.600 Disney, what I love.

00:26:57.460 Disney can't have

00:26:58.380 a protagonist

00:26:59.280 who has less than five kids.

00:27:01.760 Watch culture.

00:27:02.200 That's the way people

00:27:03.020 are like,

00:27:03.400 what?

00:27:03.620 That's an insane number

00:27:04.400 of kids.

00:27:04.820 Home alone.

00:27:05.880 All of the families

00:27:06.580 had five kids.

00:27:07.540 Like, this used to be normal

00:27:09.400 in the movies

00:27:10.100 that defined our culture.

00:27:11.620 Oh, it's insane.

00:27:12.940 And now it is unheard of.

00:27:14.860 I cannot think of

00:27:15.980 a recent Disney protagonist

00:27:17.360 that had more than two kids 0.84

00:27:20.440 in a family.

00:27:22.220 Well, there's Encanto.

00:27:24.240 Oh, yes, Encanto.

00:27:25.800 That's a good point.

00:27:26.480 Oh, no, sorry.

00:27:26.980 Wait, hold on.

00:27:27.520 No, no, no.

00:27:27.940 They're cousins.

00:27:29.420 Oh, yeah.

00:27:29.780 They're cousins.

00:27:30.520 So it's three kids

00:27:31.620 to the previous generation

00:27:32.860 and then max two kids

00:27:35.060 per our generation.

00:27:36.420 We didn't have four kids.

00:27:37.940 We didn't talk about Bruno,

00:27:38.880 though, do we?

00:27:39.680 Oh, yeah, we didn't talk about it.

00:27:40.640 But that's just,

00:27:41.340 yeah, we don't talk about Bruno.

00:27:43.840 But so the four kids,

00:27:45.140 the grandmother had four kids,

00:27:46.160 but each of those kids

00:27:47.120 only had max two kids each.

00:27:49.020 So even within our generation,

00:27:50.460 in this large,

00:27:51.960 stereotyped Latin American family,

00:27:54.620 they still within our generation

00:27:55.940 didn't have more

00:27:56.420 than two kids per family.

00:27:57.420 Well, and fertility rates

00:27:58.900 are crashing in Latin America.

00:28:00.380 This is just inaccurate.

00:28:01.260 They're trying to be

00:28:01.920 representative Malcolm.

00:28:02.860 Give them a break. 0.72

00:28:04.280 Okay.

00:28:04.920 They're trying.

00:28:06.220 By the way,

00:28:07.120 Encanto, a great movie.

00:28:08.480 I did a week crash

00:28:09.540 on some Disney movies.

00:28:10.900 Great movie.

00:28:11.580 Oh, and I was so disappointed

00:28:12.500 we didn't talk about

00:28:13.420 the new Wish movie

00:28:14.220 because we haven't seen it

00:28:15.020 in the episode on self-control.

00:28:16.580 Should we watch it?

00:28:17.580 Is it going to be really bad, though?

00:28:18.960 I really don't want to watch it,

00:28:20.580 but I've heard

00:28:21.280 that essentially

00:28:22.640 the only bad thing

00:28:23.800 that the bad guy does

00:28:24.840 is demand...

00:28:26.020 So everyone gives him their Wish.

00:28:27.860 This is what I've heard.

00:28:28.540 I haven't seen it yet.

00:28:29.160 And he has this

00:28:30.700 because he doesn't think

00:28:31.420 that all wishes can come true.

00:28:32.880 Like, if you just granted

00:28:33.820 every wish willy-nilly,

00:28:34.880 it would cause problems in society

00:28:35.940 and hurt other people eventually.

00:28:37.320 Oh, yeah.

00:28:37.820 How many people

00:28:38.480 wish people were dead?

00:28:39.320 And so he reviews people's wishes

00:28:40.820 to see if they are beneficial

00:28:42.600 to society,

00:28:43.480 and he grants the wishes

00:28:44.960 that are beneficial to society,

00:28:46.120 and he doesn't grant the wishes

00:28:47.120 that he doesn't judge.

00:28:48.520 He's not, like,

00:28:49.220 judging on his own...

00:28:49.820 He's a bad guy?

00:28:50.280 Well, yeah, no,

00:28:51.580 he ends up apparently

00:28:52.780 locked in a mirror forever.

00:28:54.440 That's how evil

00:28:55.140 this is being.

00:28:56.600 That everybody can't have

00:28:58.280 whatever they want

00:28:59.080 whenever they want it.

00:29:00.020 The ultimate sin in society.

00:29:02.980 That is amazing.

00:29:04.940 That's so amazing.

00:29:06.500 That, like, wow.

00:29:07.300 Okay, well,

00:29:08.260 then we should probably watch it.

00:29:10.540 Although, you know what?

00:29:11.000 I've just been re-watching

00:29:12.000 right before going to bed

00:29:12.880 and then going to bed too late.

00:29:14.580 Clueless.

00:29:15.240 So good.

00:29:16.520 And you know what blew my mind

00:29:17.420 when I watched it

00:29:18.220 the most recent time

00:29:19.040 is that, like,

00:29:20.760 one high school teacher

00:29:21.640 just consistently

00:29:23.240 to almost all students

00:29:24.340 doles out C's,

00:29:26.380 which bring down

00:29:26.920 everyone's grade point average.

00:29:28.320 And, like, to me,

00:29:29.180 imagining, like,

00:29:29.960 a school teacher

00:29:30.660 giving, like,

00:29:32.580 a mean grade to students

00:29:34.180 is so weird.

00:29:36.400 Like, actually grading them fairly.

00:29:38.500 But I also really love

00:29:39.620 how based the movie is

00:29:41.160 because the father

00:29:42.820 in the movie

00:29:43.640 praises his daughter

00:29:45.340 for negotiating

00:29:47.600 a better grade.

00:29:49.100 And we'd be so proud

00:29:51.700 because, like,

00:29:52.240 you're not really learning

00:29:53.060 anything that useful in school.

00:29:54.400 But, like,

00:29:54.940 if you have the hustle

00:29:55.840 to change your grade,

00:29:57.020 like, all right.

00:29:58.080 You say that,

00:29:58.620 but that was the culture

00:29:59.400 I was raised in.

00:30:00.620 So my mom actually

00:30:01.440 used that movie

00:30:02.240 as a teaching thing for me.

00:30:03.420 She goes,

00:30:04.180 the line there is

00:30:05.340 a grade is just

00:30:07.980 a jumping off point

00:30:08.880 for negotiation.

00:30:09.960 Yes.

00:30:10.440 She said,

00:30:10.820 I should always remember that

00:30:12.200 and that if I got a grade

00:30:13.520 that I wasn't willing

00:30:15.460 to accept in my record

00:30:16.840 that I should just treat it

00:30:18.360 as a jumping off point

00:30:19.120 for negotiation.

00:30:19.760 How great was your mom

00:30:20.960 that she used Clueless

00:30:22.400 as the canon

00:30:23.960 for your life lessons?

00:30:25.340 And we plan to do the same.

00:30:26.580 It's in our family canon.

00:30:27.980 It's official,

00:30:29.100 along with, you know,

00:30:30.000 Starship Troopers,

00:30:31.120 Indiana Jones movies.

00:30:32.840 The importance.

00:30:34.080 Well, I mean,

00:30:34.780 and teachers actually

00:30:35.760 are generally more okay

00:30:37.020 with that than you would think.

00:30:38.260 You know,

00:30:38.580 you're like,

00:30:39.100 look,

00:30:39.540 I can't expect this way.

00:30:40.020 Not when it's, like,

00:30:41.040 victim-based.

00:30:42.440 No, no, no.

00:30:43.100 Not when it's victim-based.

00:30:44.080 I say,

00:30:44.440 what do I need to do

00:30:45.480 to get you to make

00:30:46.840 this grade higher?

00:30:48.020 I am willing to stay

00:30:49.180 after school every day.

00:30:50.560 I am willing to do

00:30:51.280 whatever is necessary.

00:30:52.300 You tell me what I need to do.

00:30:53.600 I'm willing to do

00:30:54.140 any extra work assignments.

00:30:56.340 And most teachers,

00:30:57.380 if you're putting in

00:30:58.060 extra work and stuff like that

00:30:59.500 and it's, like,

00:31:00.040 substantive,

00:31:00.960 high-quality work,

00:31:02.340 they're like,

00:31:02.880 yeah, sure, whatever.

00:31:04.020 Not mine.

00:31:04.660 I had one A- in college.

00:31:07.920 Brought down my entire GPA.

00:31:09.720 Well, because you never

00:31:10.520 got a grade

00:31:11.340 less than an A in college.

00:31:12.700 I should point this out.

00:31:13.380 It was an A-.

00:31:14.640 And I was the only person,

00:31:18.320 the only student

00:31:19.600 who went to his class

00:31:20.860 right before Thanksgiving.

00:31:22.340 Nothing.

00:31:23.200 Nothing.

00:31:23.660 No.

00:31:24.020 Like,

00:31:24.700 can I do extra?

00:31:25.940 No.

00:31:27.100 I mean, okay,

00:31:27.820 I get it. 0.94

00:31:28.640 I suck at accounting.

00:31:29.740 But, like,

00:31:30.700 it doesn't always work

00:31:31.740 is all I'm saying.

00:31:33.200 And then, like,

00:31:33.560 later when I-

00:31:34.280 Did you get any A's

00:31:35.160 other than that

00:31:35.680 or with an only A-pluses?

00:31:37.840 I think I got

00:31:38.780 mostly solid A's.

00:31:40.360 Yeah.

00:31:42.620 Well, I love that

00:31:43.240 her trauma is an A-minus.

00:31:45.260 But it should make sense

00:31:45.980 to people who know her.

00:31:46.620 Anyway, I love you, Simone.

00:31:47.800 You are a great wife.

00:31:49.420 And I am so happy

00:31:51.460 to have you

00:31:52.320 as my partner

00:31:53.480 in this

00:31:54.820 civilizational battle

00:31:56.180 for the

00:31:56.820 soul of society.

00:31:58.660 And I hope that this

00:32:00.340 podcast

00:32:01.740 might inspire

00:32:02.760 some people

00:32:03.680 with progressive values

00:32:04.880 to think a little bit

00:32:05.780 more creatively

00:32:06.500 about how they might

00:32:07.900 motivate higher fertility rates.

00:32:09.380 So, high five.

00:32:10.860 And I adore you.

00:32:11.500 Thank you.

Based Camp - March 04, 2024

Sweden's Pronatalism Fails： Just Like We Predicted

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