The Left Eats Itself? Woke Culture's Internal Struggles (With Bryan Caplan)
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Summary
Brian Kaplan is an economics professor at George Mason University and a New York Times bestselling author. He's an author of not just a ton of books, including some favorites of ours, like selfish reasons to have more kids and the case for the case against education, but also in collaboration with the creator of Saturday Morning Breakfast cereal, a book called Open Borders, The Science of Ethics and Immigration, which is illustrated.
Transcript
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I've done some fun Twitter polls of, you know, are you left? Are you right? Do you worry about
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the left getting mad at you? Do you worry about the right getting mad at you? And one of the
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biggest groups that lives in fear is the left of the left. Right. Yeah. Yeah. Left. It's not
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quite like the ready, but you know, we're like the Amish, but it is a weird dysfunctional
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subculture of people who feel like they've got to be looking over their shoulders. Would you like
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to know more? We are really excited today because we have a very special guest joining us, Brian
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Kaplan. He is in addition to being a professor of economics at George Mason University and
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a New York times bestselling author. He's an author of not just a ton of books, including
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obviously some favorites of ours, like selfish reasons to have more kids and the case against
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education, like two huge obsession areas for us. But also in collaboration with the creator
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of Saturday morning breakfast cereal, an awesome web comic, a book called open borders, the
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science of ethics and immigration, which is illustrated. And there just need to be more
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books out there as avid readers of comics and manga, like throughout our youth. We are huge fans of
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this format. So like super stoked, especially when it's something about policy. Well, it's wild. We
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actually have a Saturday morning breakfast cartoon in one of our books as well. We asked for permission.
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So that's, but other things he's written on is, is the case again, don't grow up to be a feminist
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is one of the books. And one of the most recent ones is on how democracies are non-functional or
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becoming less, less optimized for good economic outcomes. So ladies and gentlemen, if you need
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some good reading, basically just search Brian Kaplan's name. So the priming that I wanted to go
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into this interview is because I find this very interesting and I haven't seen your pontification
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on this particular angle yet. When I look at all of the things that you're seeing as problems,
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they both seem to align with many of the things that we think about the world or, and I think
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most people have really thought about things. So they're very sane and based takes, right?
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Fertility population is going to begin to decline in the developed world, which is going to have
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major economic effects. The academic system is working less and less well. There's sort of
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social contagions like feminism, which are causing many downstream societal effects.
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My question to you is realistically, where does the world go?
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50, 100 years from now, do we see a beginning of a collapse of the developed world? Do we see
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small social groups begin to gain more power? What's going on?
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My honest answer is I always say we'll muddle through. There's no collapse. There's no disaster.
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Even the idea that things will get overall worse is I think highly unlikely. Mostly I think in terms of
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missed opportunities, things could have been so much more than they were.
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If we get to immortality in a thousand years, but we could have done it in a hundred years,
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well, what a horrible tragedy for 900 years worth of people. It's not the same thing as
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the Planet of the Apes or something like that, or just a complete takeover. It's just that
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we could have done so much better and we didn't. How sad.
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So then economically, how do you think demographic collapse plays out? Do you think that it won't have
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that big of an effect? Do you think it will have a big, like how can countries adapt to it?
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It will have a huge effect relative to what could have been. That doesn't mean that we will see that
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living standards actually go down in absolute terms. I'm not going to rule that out for the
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most egregious cases. I do think that despite the great dysfunctionality of politics over the world,
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including democracies, that when things get really bad to the level of things are actually going to
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get noticeably worse before your eyes, then I think normally countries get more flexible. It's like,
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all right, well, we can't have them actually get worse. What politics is really bad at is
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realizing incredible missed opportunities that people just have not gotten used to yet.
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For example, so South Korea, if it really looks like they're going to be unable to staff their
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old folks' homes, they'll let in the immigrants at that point. It has to get bad, right? And then
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they will, all right, fine, we will go and prevent things from getting noticeably worse. They'll do what
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it takes to prevent that. But the fact that they could have had five times the GDP they have right
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now if they just changed decades ago, well, that can keep going on indefinitely. There just isn't the
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same kind of pressure to realize theoretical opportunities as there is to prevent obvious
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disaster where pressure is pretty high, actually.
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Yeah. So on this topic, I mean, what would be your theory of the best ways to increase fertility
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rates within a country? I know you wrote a book that was one theory on how to do this, and it's
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convinced hundreds of people, which is a lot, to have more kids or kids that they otherwise might not.
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But at a government level, what do you think is the most effective solution?
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There's a myth out there that natalist policies don't work. Normally, it's based upon this totally
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impressionistic thing. A country had falling fertility, the government adopted a program,
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and then fertility didn't suddenly go up. So, all right. Yeah, that's not really a good measure
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of policy efficacy. As I'm sure you guys know, the gold standard is experimental tests. There are two
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noted natalist actual bona fide experiments, one in Quebec, one in Austria. Both of these found quite
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large effects of modest natalist incentives. So I would say that the very best approach is just to go
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and push harder on these incentives. My preferred one actually is specifically just something like
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giving people a one or two or three year complete tax holiday every time they have a kid.
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That is one approach. There's a lot of variations on this. Another one is just we're going to go and
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tie whatever retirement benefits you get to your lifetime fertility or maybe the amount of taxes that
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your kids pay. But in terms of just the simplest to adopt and the one that fits most with a lot of
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short-term thinking, the human exhibit is precisely have a kid. You don't pay taxes that year. Maybe
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you don't pay them for a few years, which again is also not to be coy. It is a thinly veiled eugenic
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approach, which I think makes a lot of sense in terms of people that are statistically likely to have
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kids that are going to have a lot of payoff for society. They're the ones that are best to go and
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actually encourage. Again, I am very pro other people having kids too, but in terms of bang for
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your buck, I think this is the one that makes the most sense. I do have a piece where I just snapped
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together two bodies of evidence, one on how sensitive is fertility to incentives, and the other one is
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what is the net fiscal effect of having another kid. And I do say that this program that I'm talking
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about or policy I'm talking about of giving people a like a one-year tax holiday for having another kid
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is the holy grail of fiscal policy because it really does look like it is a tax cut that more than
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pays for itself, which has been otherwise pretty hard to find.
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Interesting. So I know your upcoming book is on capitalism and freedom economically and how that
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benefits everyone. Not everyone. I never say everyone. A lot of people, but probably the
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aggregate. It benefits the aggregate. Yeah. That's actually the kind of language that the book is
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aimed to crush. Everyone will benefit. No, not everybody. Most people. Okay. Most people. But so I
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would love to couch this and I want to hear how you think about this problem, which is when we look at
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where fertility rates go up and where they crash, you know, when you see fertility rates begin to go
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below replacement rate is typically in a country when the average citizen is earning less than around
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5k a year. And you begin to see them go up again when a family is earning over half a million dollars
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a year at an individual level within a country. And our takeaway from this has been what is actually,
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and we say this as like big supporters of capitalism, what actually is one of the big causers of
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fertility rate collapse is when people begin to engage with the modern economic system. Because
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people at both ends of the spectrum aren't fully engaging with the modern economic system and the
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modern economic system does a very good job of disproportionate or dynamically pricing the value
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of potentially productive cultural groups and individuals within a society. But it does a very bad
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job at judging sort of long-term value of those individuals. So it will always pay somebody
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just enough to not spend time with their family to some extent. And so the places that are most
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engaged with sort of capitalistic freedom are often the places that have the lowest fertility rates.
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Like, how do you think about that? Or do you just reject this as a thesis?
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Well, let's see. The main thing that I know is if you go and race income versus education as
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predictors of fertility for the United States, where I've worked with it a lot of the most.
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So again, just to understand, you know, statistically, this basically means that we're going to allow
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fertility to depend upon two variables and then see what the relative weights are. So when you do it
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this way, actually, the big punchline is that it is education and not income that oppresses fertility.
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In fact, the highest fertility subgroup out of those four possibilities, you know, so you've got high
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income, low income, high education, low education. The highest fertility suburb is actually the high
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income, low education group. So in your mind, think of plumbers, high income. So really, I don't think
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that it is income per se that seems to matter. I mean, I say it's more of education, even education.
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Well, why would education do it? I'd say it's the kind of education that we are used to in Western
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countries, which basically, even if it does not explicitly discourage fertility, it basically gives
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fertility so low of a priority and just replaces it with career success is the only thing that
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counts. Yeah. Including perhaps we're especially for women, but that is the real story. So it's not
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income itself that seems to matter. And income by itself does seem to be good for fertility.
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Yeah. Well, I mean, you could frame it as education is the lengths of time you've spent and the amount
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that you have personally invested into this cultural indoctrination system that's indoctrinating
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people into a cultural group that values fertility very little.
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Yeah. I think that that does make a lot of sense. Right. And it fits with low East Asian fertility.
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Although I also do like to think about East Asian fertility as being the best confirmation of my
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story that baseless internalized norms of helicopter parenting, the idea that you must go and ruin your
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own life in order to be a decent parent. I think it does reduce fertility. I think East Asia,
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where helicopter parenting is most severe is also where we see the ultra low fertility does fit
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overall with that story at least. Yeah. Well, and I think East Asia is a really interesting. So one
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of the things, you know, as people here who really value freedom, one of the things that does concern
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me is typically within outside of the East, you're looking at like Western cultural groups,
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typically the less freedom a group permits, the higher fertility rate it's going to have within that
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cultural group. But you can see that this isn't a truism because it doesn't exist within East Asia.
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In East Asia, restricting freedoms does not increase fertility rates.
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So what would be the Western countries that you have in mind for?
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So it's not countries, it's cultural groups. So typically if you're looking at like religious
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groups, so in the US, which groups have the highest fertility rates? They're the groups.
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Yeah. Yeah. Like Amish, for example. Is that what you're thinking of?
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The Amish, the Haridi, the, you know, and this is true within every individual cultural group. So
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if I'm looking at Muslims, the more progressive, loosey-goosey Muslim is going to have very low
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fertility rate, whereas the very conservative ones are going to have a very high fertility rate.
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And this is one of the things that this actually, Diana Fleischman was doing an interview with you
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and mentioned that we had this idea. And I was wondering what you think of it, which is if only
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through, if it is true, and it appears to be true, that within countries, the groups that remove
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individual freedoms, especially from women, have higher fertility rates, that they will come to be
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more predominant mindsets in the future. Would you agree with that? Or?
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That's pretty obvious. You essentially just have to have some massive force cutting the other way in
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order for that not to be true. Honestly, my long-term view is straight out of Jurassic Park,
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life finds a way. It's not possible for fertility to stay low forever. We know that there is a
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substantial heritable component to desired and achieved fertility. So in the long run,
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childless people are just, their genes are getting wiped out of the population, and they're going to
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get replaced by people who actually want to have kids and like doing it. So it's just, you know,
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that may take centuries, but still, you know, the idea that we can just go down to zero, I think is
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pretty crazy. Like when life finds a way, it really does. No, I agree. I mean, it's engaging, and yet
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we just want to think about who feels like they are, have to watch their backs, and like they're
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under a lot of social pressure. I actually think that very left-wing people in the West are some of
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the people who, you know, not just are, but feel like they have to really watch what they say for fear of
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getting kicked out of their subculture. I've done some fun Twitter polls of, you know, are you left?
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Are you right? Do you, like, do you worry about the left getting mad at you? Do you worry about the
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right getting mad at you? And one of the biggest groups that lives in fear is the left of the left.
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Yes. Left. Right. And so, I mean, I think that they have actually managed to create, you know,
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it's not quite like the Haredi, but, you know, or like the Amish, but it is a weird dysfunctional
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subculture of people who feel like they've got to be looking over their shoulders every time that
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they go and discuss what they see with their own eyes to make sure that reality is allowed,
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reality is discussable. So I think of them as, out of large groups, I think that they are probably
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one of the largest groups that just feels a lot of internal sense of, I have to be really careful
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what I say. I was kind of surprised by how open people that were responding were to this.
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You know, it's obviously, it's a Twitter poll. You can always say, ah, people are just making
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stuff up. I just tend to doubt that. So we have the idea that like people are deliberately going
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and responding to anonymous polls with mischievous answers. Sometimes they'll do it if it's like
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really funny, but it's got to be funnier than I'm left wing and I'm scared of the left. That's not
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hilarious. Well, I also think it's intuitive. I mean, I think anybody who looks at that and
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this isn't happening is probably lying to themselves to some extent. And this is, if people
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say, what, well, what are we trying to do with this channel is trying to redefine what the right is
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to an alliance of diverse cultural groups against a homogenizing urban monoculture, which is to say
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that, you know, one of the things I always say is that if you look at a progressive Muslim or a
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progressive Jew or a progressive Catholic, you know, they're going to have the same views on
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gender, the same views on sexuality, the same views on where we, how we should relate to the
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environment, the same views on the future of our species. Whereas if you talk to, you know,
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conservatives of these groups, they're going to have wildly different takes on that. And so
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I think rebuilding the conservative movement as an alliance of free thought is one of the ways we
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can preserve and ensure that at least within one space that's possible, but we still get
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trashed by our viewers all the time, you know? I mean, what you're saying makes a lot of sense
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if you think about modern leftism actually is something and everybody else is more just like
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people on the island of Misfit Toys, where it's like, I'm not that thing, but I don't know,
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I've got like a broken paw here. Okay. And meanwhile, I'm the one whose head isn't screwed on,
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right? So I think you've got something going on there. I don't, I don't know if you catch the
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reference to this classic animation. Oh, I know you have a playmation. Yeah.
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Yeah. No, but it is really interesting to say that. It's pretty rather than true, but I still
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like it. Yeah. Well, I mean, people ask, well, you know, why are you really only interested in
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talking to the right? And it's because it's this left cultural group, while they may be the dominant
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cultural group in society today, they lower fertility rates so much that they really aren't
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part of the conversation when we're talking about the future of the species. So, you know, right now
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we're focused on communicating with the other groups that are going to be there in the future
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to hope we can get along once this group has self-extinguished.
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Yeah, it's going to, it will be a while, but I mean, honestly, I mean, I try to talk to anybody
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that's curious to talk to me. It's just that while there's many individuals on the left that have
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talked to me, but I basically get no institutional love from any left wing group, no matter how
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simpatico my themes are with what they're doing. It's just, yeah, he's not, Brian's not one of
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us. So we're not going to go on platform and we don't want to be associated with anything that
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we don't like. There's this one cartoon that I really like. It's basically just a stick figure.
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And the first panel says, wait, did you just agree with one of the things that I believe?
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Next panel, you have to agree with all the things I believe.
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I love that. You know, one of the things that you said in a recent interview, and I want to hear
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pontification on why you think this is the case, is you're saying that when people really angrily
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attack you, that the most common or a common trait among them, and this is for your pronatalist views,
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is that they have chosen not to have kids themselves. Now your pronatalist views and our
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pronatalist views are boasted. This is a choice for every individual. We don't want to pressure
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any specific individual who doesn't want kids into having kids. Why do you think that they get so mad
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about this? Yeah, normally I don't like to do this, but this is a case where I just have so much trouble
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resisting the simple story that you are going against billions of years of evolution and there's
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always a part of you that's just saying, no, no, we have a billion, you know, let's say,
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what would it be? A hundred million ancestral generations have reproduced and you're going
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to stop. There's some sense of internal conflict. And again, this does just fit with me that,
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I mean, I have had irate people, I guess always women, you know, just call me up and yell at me
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and say, I am very happy to my life. I don't need kids. And I don't think a person happy with
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their life calls up a stranger and yells at them. So just so our viewers know how insane is it.
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Every other day of your life is happy. And this is the one day you're having a bad day. And
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I'm the person that's on the receiving end. It just doesn't sound like that to me. It sounds like
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you're in a lot of internal conflict. You know, like I, I hate to go and sound biblical about this,
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but it does sound so much like the story of St. Paul getting kicked off his horse in the desert
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as is all what I saw. So you still saw it. It's like, oh, why does not persecute me?
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It is hard to kick against the pricks. So I get, of course, it is so entertaining and almost like
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cackling to yourself with the glee and the thought that, oh, my opponent secretly agreed with me.
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And normally I don't have that at all. This is what I'm like. It's kind of fits. I don't know.
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Like, I can't read mine. So I'll never really know. But still, it sure seems that way.
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What I think is really interesting about what you're saying, if for people who haven't read
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his works or seen his other interviews, is you are the first to admit that statistically,
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having kids actually doesn't make you that much happier. Like it makes you a little bit less
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happy on average. And, and so you're not even going out and saying, oh, these people have no
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happiness in their lives, but that's what they're hearing because I think it's what they fear and
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what they, what the little devil in their head is telling them. Yeah. So probably the most irate
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caller, I actually had a summary of the happiness research on both marriage and parenting, where I
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said that statistically the people to feel sorry for are not people with kids, but people who are single.
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And this comes down to, yeah, like the happiness gain of marriage is huge. There is a tiny happiness
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hit from being a parent. And then I said, if you combine these two things and remember that having
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kids is a lot of what keeps marriages together, then it seems like from that point of view, it's
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net positive. But this was a childless and single woman and she was irate. And I say, I'm just
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describing the results, trying to do it in an amusing way. I don't mean to mess up your day or
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anything. Perhaps you are really happy, even though you're calling strangers and yelling at
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them in the middle of the day, but probably not. Well, it is interesting the way that people enforce
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cultural norms within the far progressive, the sort of like urban monoculture is through
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chastising either privately or publicly, people who say things that deviate from those norms.
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And that's not true for most cultural groups. Very few cultural groups publicly chastise people
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from other cultural groups for not following their rules, which is fascinating.
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Although perhaps given how much fear the left has of being yelled at by the left, they might not be so
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exceptional, actually. Probably most of the energy is directed towards your in-group.
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I have talked to multiple left-wing professors who have said that they are scared of getting
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cancelled. And I'm like, I'm listening, I'm squinting. You, you're like totally boring. And you're like
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man of the left. They might get me. And it is because they are just culturally so much closer.
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Whereas, honestly, my fear of having the left do anything bad to me is really low. It's because
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I'm just not that close to them culturally. And so, you know, it's, oh, well, none of us left-wing
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people will be your friend anymore. So, wow. All right. Yeah. That's not really going to change my
00:22:22.860
day that much, actually. Yeah. Well, and that's something I really appreciate about you as an
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intellectual is you clearly have no audience capture. Like you're looking at the work that
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you're putting out and it typically would appeal to right-leaning individuals. And then you put out
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something like we should have totally open borders without any fear of losing your audience.
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But I think people who are in this sort of intellectual dissident space can afford to do
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that in a way that almost no other group can because your audience won't hate you for saying
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something that you think is true with data to back it. Yeah. I mean, probably it's true that
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the people that have, you know, like, like, let me put it this way. I've received very few death
00:23:01.460
threats in my life, but I think a hundred percent of all the death threats have come from anti-immigrant
00:23:05.520
people. Wow. Oh, they are the most psychotic people that I interact with, which does not mean
00:23:15.120
that most of them are psychotic, but they do have the highest share of psychotics as far as I can tell.
00:23:22.400
But still, I'd say that the only groups that will just shun me are ones where being anti-immigration
00:23:30.020
is the whole thing. Whereas ones where they do a lot of issues, then it's okay. Maybe Brian is,
00:23:34.580
we're totally bad on immigration, but we like this other stuff. And that doesn't mean that we
00:23:38.000
dislike him. It's more of, you know, dissident groups are generally just not so picky and they're
00:23:44.080
like, well, you know, we'll take what we can get. Where, you know, obviously if it's a single issue
00:23:48.640
group, then they do tend to be hostile to me. Yeah. And of course, even that varies quite a lot
00:23:56.140
by individual, but, you know, none of them, there's no immigration person who's ever threatened me or
00:24:03.720
anything. That is interesting. Yeah. To me, that means that these anti-immigration groups probably
00:24:09.980
view it as an existential threat to their culture if immigration is allowed. Yeah. Which is interesting
00:24:15.620
because countries that have the strictest immigration policy, one thing we always point
00:24:19.900
out is if you look at wealthy countries, the countries with the strictest anti-immigration
00:24:23.520
policy typically have the lowest fertility rate. And they typically had the anti-immigration
00:24:28.160
policies before their fertility rate collapsed. So it appears to actually kill a cultural group
00:24:34.880
to not have competitors around. Yeah. At least it's somewhat plausible, I guess, to whether it's
00:24:40.580
causal or not. It's a bit hard to say. Let's see. I mean, I guess I would go around thinking
00:24:45.300
about, let's see, well, here's actually the East Asian economy that's most open in France, which
00:24:50.380
is Singapore. They're not the worst of fertility, but they're not the best either. Yeah. Or again,
00:24:56.400
that's just one example. I mean, I mean, a lot of this, I would say, maybe we just don't have
00:25:00.880
enough data to really know. Well, yeah. And different cultural groups relate to things in
00:25:06.140
different ways. So it might be that East Asian groups don't increase their fertility when they have
00:25:10.060
cultural competition, but Western cultural groups, whether it's like Israel or the U.S., do.
00:25:14.940
Yeah. Yeah. Israel, there's quite a bit of plausibility. And this is the main country where
00:25:20.620
normal people talk about there being race. That's a good point.
00:25:24.860
We've got to beat that other group. I mean, at first time, people were telling me,
00:25:28.400
that's not really true. Okay, fine. It is actually true there. It's not just something some intellectuals
00:25:33.060
have superimposed on behavior. It's something that normal people use to describe what they're doing
00:25:37.240
with their lives. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're proud of who they are. And I think that when you
00:25:42.520
were talking about education plus wealth, Israel is where it's that rings true for me. When I think
00:25:47.660
of like conservative Jews who do not like variety, who don't engage with the education system,
00:25:52.100
but are otherwise wealthy, they have lots of kids. Yeah. I mean, also worth pointing out,
00:25:56.000
they got lots of education, but just of this bizarro kind that consists in, let's argue about the
00:26:01.740
meaning of dead books written by a bunch of different people and pretend they all have to agree.
00:26:05.160
Yeah. I mean, my impression is it's not necessarily.
00:26:09.560
What a shame that so much brain power goes into this completely futile intellectual endeavor.
00:26:14.880
We talk about that. It seems to us like a bit of an IQ shredder. We're like, oh my gosh,
00:26:18.540
these are like, we were, we spoke at one point about the meritocracy system of that culture as well.
00:26:22.840
Like how it really sorts for very smart people, well, smart and charismatic people. Like the most
00:26:27.380
informed is able to get the most power and status and influence. And yet we're like, oh,
00:26:30.720
but these people could get us on Mars, but they're not.
00:26:32.840
But as I pointed out to Simone, when the cultural group abandons that, that's what the reformed Jews
00:26:38.980
did. They said, oh, we'll still judge cultural status by how smart we are, but we'll have this
00:26:43.220
done by some sort of external system, like the university system. And that just acted like a
00:26:47.460
huge backdoor, which destroyed their fertility rates and was used to convert them all to the
00:26:52.520
progressive urban monoculture. And so there's a reason why they do this, even though it appears
00:26:57.580
unproductive. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, hold on. This has been fantastic. We're out of time,
00:27:03.680
but I would love to have you back. Simone, do you have any final thoughts?
00:27:08.660
No, I just, I'm very entertained that the death threats come from immigration. So Malcolm,
00:27:13.720
we better watch our backs if we ever start talking about that more.
00:27:16.120
Yeah. I mean, I think it's almost all cheap talk. I'm not actually worried.
00:27:23.280
But it's interesting to see where it comes from.
00:27:25.200
A lot of fear of even normal intellectuals, much less dissenters, especially when there are people
00:27:33.000
of tenure who say, I'm afraid to speak my mind. This was like, if you won't do it, come on,
00:27:37.100
who's going to do? It's like, you have this dream job for life. You don't live in a war zone.
00:27:42.240
If there's something that's worth saying and it won't be said, but for you, stick your neck out
00:27:47.180
and say it and take your lumps. There's no other way to live. It's worthwhile.
00:27:53.400
Beautiful parting words. Thank you so much for coming on.