The UN is Lying About Latin American Birth Rates： The Real Numbers are Shocking
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Summary
In this episode, we talk about how the United Nation's estimates of Latin American fertility rates are wildly off the mark, and why this is a big deal. We talk to a demographer, an economist, and a young researcher to try and figure out what's going on.
Transcript
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Hello, Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today, we are going to be talking about
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something that I accidentally stumbled into while I was trying to grab fertility rates
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for a reporter. And so the reporter comes to me and they go, you know, we were talking about,
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this was Telemundo. We were talking about the fertility rates across Latin America.
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And I Googled because I remembered that Columbia, for example, had a very low fertility rate.
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The measured rate right now, and I'll put the Wikipedia page where it has like the
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government stats on this, is 1.066667. That's basically half of this population.
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For comparison, UK is around 1.5. US is around 1.6. That is bad.
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Yeah, 1.07. And so I Googled it and the Google result came back was 1.6. That's a decimal point
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error. That is enormous error. And I was like, where the hell is this number coming from?
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Um, uh, and I did some digging and it soon. Please don't see the UN. It was coming from
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the UN. God, no, no. And so I asked an AI, I'm like, how is the UN getting this number?
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Whereas Wikipedia and Columbia is getting this number. And it explained to me the difference
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in methodology. It said, oh, the number that you're looking at, the 1.06 number, that's the
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measured fertility rate in Columbia. The number that the UN is reporting is the number that they
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predict should be the fertility rate of Columbia. It's like our son Octavian and some math problems
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we give him where we're like, hey, what's X plus X? And, and he gives us a number and we're like,
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no, no, no, it's, it's seven. And he's like, no, it's 13. Cause he said it was 13.
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Yeah. He understands that is the UN right now. And so what we're going to be going over in this
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is because then I was like, how bad is this over-reporting number in terms of the data that
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a lot of people are getting? So we went through the official sources, Wikipedia, where they're
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citing the country's own demographic statistics across Latin America. And so we're going to go
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across Latin American countries right now, which by the way, if you average them come out to a TFR
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by, by their relative populations below the U S S TFR already. Yeah. And I point out, this isn't
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just a Latin American problem. This is a Latin American problem in the United States, the state
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or territory was the lowest fertility rate. And by the way, it's not even close is Puerto Rico,
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which has a fertility rate of only 0.9. All right. So bad. It's so bad. I have mentioned this quote
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before, but I have to mention this quote here because it's so important. There's a Latin American
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demographer who is a professor at Penn, you know, Ivy league Penn, very nice, fancy. Respected,
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reputable. Actually, we should reach out to this guy about having him on the show. If you can make
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a note of that, he's right next to us. Right. And he's a pretty base demographer.
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Seuss Fernandez-Viller-Dre. Oh, this guy. Yes. The professor of economics. Okay. So these are some
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quotes from him in a interview that he did. Hey Seuss, first, I think the United Nations is
00:03:07.000
over-counting the numbers of births in many countries. For instance, in Colombia,
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the United Nations claims that in 2023, there are over 700,000 births. Colombian authorities,
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and I have talked with them, tell me that there were 500,000. The official number is 500,000.
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This is fighting about the second decimal. Alice, that's a big difference. Alice. So,
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and this is like dot, dot, dot here. So crazy. Like, you know, there are clever people. Why are
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they, you know, coming up with, why are they, you know, coming up with inventing numbers? And then
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Jesus says, so I sent them an email and the answer we got, and I'm doing this with a young researcher,
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Patrick Nornes. We send the email and they told us that they don't want to be alarmists. That's
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literally what they said in the email. They said, yes, maybe the projections do not make a lot of
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sense, but we want to be very cautious and we don't want to be alarmist. And we don't want people
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to think that there is a crisis looming, which, and then Alice cuts her off because it's like,
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but there is a crisis looming. Well, imagine, imagine if someone did that with climate change.
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Well, we don't want people to worry. Whereas like they did completely the opposite. They kept lying
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about the end of the world. And then ultimately, you know, becoming so alarmist that now everyone's so
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desensitized that even Greta Thunberg can't even bother to be an environmental advocate anymore.
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Well, trusting the UN about population collapse is a bit like trusting one of those cigarette-like
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advocates, the big cigarette companies on- It helps to clear your lungs. You're fumigating
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your lungs. What I do, I talk for a living. What do you talk about? I speak on behalf of cigarettes.
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My mom says cigarettes kill. Really? Now, is your mommy a doctor? No.
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Well, she doesn't exactly sound like a credible expert now, does she?
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Well, I mean, we point out that the Club of Rome, which is an organization dedicated,
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and it's Earth for All, an organization that they founded, which is dedicated to the reduction
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of the world's population by 80%, has a bunch of members and leading roles, was in the UN.
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So you watch our episode about this, where we go over all the data on this. But then Alice says,
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Alice, this is really like, it's their job. I mean, their job is to report the numbers. And if
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they don't want to do it because, hey, Seuss, I know, I know. But look, Alice, it sounds a bit
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like a totalitarian Soviet. That's where I cut off. But the point I'm making here is this is
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being done deliberately. The cover-up is being done deliberately. And it is, when you are talking
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about a fertility rate of 1.06, and it's being reported as 1.6, that's at the level of genocide
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denial. Because when you get to a fertility rate, actually, I'll just do the math on this right now
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to see how many great-grandchildren that means. There's going to be 15 great-grandchildren for
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every 100 citizens. But we also see a lot of Latin American demographers talking about this. I often
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mention the Colombian demographer, who described Colombia's demography as vertiginous, and said
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that there was under one child for every one native-born Costa Rican woman at this point.
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And then a Colombian demographer wrote, Colombia has the second largest drop in the number of
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live births in the long list of countries surpassed by Chile. And it already has a birth rate lower than
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that of JAPAN, in all caps. The explanations from demographer, they're good, but they do not account
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for the acceleration and change. And another thing they don't count for, and this is worth us, and
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another thing we're going to go into in this episode, is why do Latin American demographics,
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why are they collapsing so quickly in Latin American majority regions, but so slowly in the
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United States? Latin Americans still actually have a very robust fertility rate in U.S. states
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that aren't Puerto Rico. What's causing this? Let's go into the data. All right, let's just start
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listing numbers here. Argentina, UN 1.5, the actual number, because anyone who knows Argentina's
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statistics, you know, 1.5 is nowhere near Argentina's fertility rate, is 1.16. And by the
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way, I'll put a chart on the screening of countries in Latin America by their fertility rate. Bolivia,
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UN is saying 2.5. The actual fertility rate is 2.06. Again, you're getting like 0.5 off on fertility
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rates. That means that the UN is assuming that every woman in a lot of these countries is having
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half an extra children. It's just so creepy, because it, to me, also feels like an attempt
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to stop anyone from realizing the gravity of the problem so they can't begin to work on solutions.
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In a similar way, how, like, Planned Parenthood just very quietly made sure certain populations had
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very easy access to abortion and didn't really talk about it. It's just, it really gets under my
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skin. I don't like this. Yeah, this great-grandchildren number cannot be right, but it
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might be. It says that it would mean there's going to be 15 great-grandchildren for every 100 citizens.
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Okay. Which is not, countries cannot stay stable with numbers like that. Okay. Brazil, the real numbers
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in Brazil are 1.47. The UN estimate is 1.6. Chile. And Brazil, like, I remember I was talking to a
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reporter from Brazil, and she was like, well, you know, we don't have this problem like you do in the
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U.S. And I was like, excuse me, your fertility rate is way below ours. What are you talking about?
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It's more that Latin America is just in denial about this. I mean, when I was talking to someone-
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Well, can you- they're not in denial. They're being actively gaslit about this. No, there's Latin
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American demographers talking about this. Like, Jesus is clearly Latin American, right? Like-
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I mean, we need to get Latin American, as Telemundo goes, they go, where are the Latin American
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pronatalists? And I was like, I don't know. I can't force them to be pronatalists, right?
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Well, I mean, they are inherently pro-family. They're just not aware of demographic collapse.
00:09:06.520
Has a big follower, watcher base in Latin America. Like, our fab is being run largely by Bruno,
00:09:12.680
who is in Brazil, and the team that was working on that was Latin American, and that's like
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one of our core projects as a podcast. So, like, and our company is Latin American. Oh, yeah. We
00:09:23.300
should sell that house soon, looking at the population numbers in Peru. So, yeah, scary
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stuff. And we were also pointing out, like, we know our primary social network is Latin American,
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because that's our primary work network. And we were actually thinking recently to ourselves
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that we only knew a single Latin American family that was above repopulation rate of our generation,
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or even around our generation. I'd say it was in, like, 20 years of our generation, which was wild
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to me to think about when I started thinking about that. And to continue here, Chile has a fertility
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rate of 1.03. The UN is labeling it as 1.1. Colombia has a fertility rate of 1.07. UN is labeling it as
00:10:01.120
1.6. I already went over that. Ecuador. Oh, this one is actually higher than what the UN rates.
00:10:06.500
Oh, yeah. The UN says 1.8. I mean, not much. But Guiana has a fertility rate of 2.35. UN is labeling
00:10:13.520
it as 2.4. Paraguay has a fertility rate of 1.95. UN is labeling it as 2.4. Again, there's almost a 0.5
00:10:21.000
discrepancy there. Peru has a fertility rate of 1.8. UN is labeling it as 1.9. Suriname has a fertility
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rate of 2. UN is labeling it as 2.2. Paraguay, this is another one that the UN is massively off on,
00:10:33.340
has a fertility rate of 1.19. The UN is labeling it at 1.4. Venezuela has a fertility rate of 2. The
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UN is labeling it at 2.2. Uruguay has a fertility rate of 1.19. The UN is labeling it at 1.4.
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Although just keep in mind these numbers that I'm listing here, that Uruguay has a fertility rate
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of 1.19, right? Like these are catastrophic. That is below Japan, right? That's getting close to China.
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Belize, for another one that the UN is massively lying about, has a fertility rate of 1.63.
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UN is labeling it at 2. Costa Rica has a fertility rate at 1.12. The UN is labeling it at 1.3.
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El Salvador has a fertility rate of 1.4. The UN is labeling it at 1.8. Guatemala has a fertility
00:11:15.080
rate of 2.2. The UN is labeling it at 2.3. So not big with that one, but some of the other ones
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are really big. Honduras, oh, this one's bad, has a fertility rate of 2.01. The UN is labeling it at
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2.5. Nicaragua has a fertility rate of 1.8. The UN is labeling it at 2.2. Panama has a fertility rate
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of 1.82. The UN is labeling it at 2.1. And Mexico has a fertility rate of 1.6, below the
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US, by the way, as of last year. The UN is labeling it at 1.9. That is absolutely shocking.
00:11:43.380
If you want to know what the Hispanic TFR is in the United States right now, this is based
00:11:47.560
on provisional, but we're looking at a TFR of around 1.97. So very decent. That would make
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it one of the highest Hispanic fertility rates on earth. Yeah. Whereas the, what is non-Hispanic
00:11:59.480
white rate right now? It's 1.54. Non-Hispanic black is 1.47. Non-Hispanic black is, whoa.
00:12:10.500
Whoa. What? Wait, what? The black fertility rate in the US has fallen below the right fertility rate.
00:12:18.040
But you knew that. And especially at higher levels of income. No, I knew at higher levels of income. I'm
00:12:22.100
talking about it in absolute context. Oh, absolute too. Absolute. This year, it's 2024 provisional.
00:12:28.400
Yeah. Last year, it was higher. Last year, the white fertility rate was 1.53. It was 1.58 for the
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black community. Now it's 1.54 for whites, 1.47 for blacks. Oh no. Wow. Once again, it's, well, I mean,
00:12:45.900
like, so before this, just for context consistently, like when you looked at income levels, the one group
00:12:51.340
that had the highest fertility at higher income levels was just white people. Yeah. Whites have
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a way, if you go above the 50% income rate, whites have one of the highest fertility rates. This, this.
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And so it's really more that like other groups in the United States had higher fertility because they
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also had higher poverty levels. But now we're just seeing overall. Lower fertility. Oh, nice. I have
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always pointed this out. I've yelled this from the rooftop. Northern Europeans are resistant to
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fertility collapse. Jews are resistant to fertility collapse. There's me doing my little maraca dance
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being like, everybody pay attention. These other groups are going to fall faster. You just wait.
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Yes. It started at a lower rate, but it gave them time to build an immunity. And you want to hear
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another shocking number? Tell me. You know what other demographic is a blob black fertility rate out of
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2024? Not Asians. Asians. Whoa. Asian fertility rate went up to 1.55. Wow. Good for them. And the non-Hispanic
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American Indians and Alaskan natives have a fertility rate of 1.39, the lowest of any ethnic group in the
00:14:05.120
United States, as we often point out. As we've, yeah, very often pointed out. Sadly, I have to do a
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correction here. I did the math wrong and I'll explain how I did it wrong. But what we're getting
00:14:14.760
here is, and I'll make this prediction now, is that black American fertility will fall below the other
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fertility rates very soon. Specifically what happened is I was calculating from provisional data
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and the provisional data had the GFR, but not the TFR. So I applied a multiplier to the GFR to turn it into a
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TFR. The problem is, is that the multiplier that you apply to a GFR to turn it into a TFR is different
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for different ethnic groups, because different ethnic groups have kids at different ages of their
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lives, which means it's a lower multiplier for Asians than it is for blacks. So blacks still have a
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marginally higher fertility rate than whites or Asians right now, but it's going down much faster,
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which I'll explain right here in a second, which means that we're likely going to see a lower black
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fertility rate within the next, I'd say, half decade or so than any other ethnic group in the
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U.S. except for Native Americans. Actually, this is wild to me. So if you look at these numbers,
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the interesting thing about the Hispanic fertility rate in the United States is that it's mostly
00:15:16.820
stable. So I'm going to go 2020 to 2024 for the Hispanic fertility rate. 1.88, 1.9, 1.97, 1.95,
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1.97. Stable, even trending up a little bit. If we look at the white fertility rate, what does it
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look like? Very stable as well. 1.55, 1.6, 1.57, 1.53, 1.54. Okay, now let's go to the black fertility
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rate, and this is where you see a real strong pattern. 1.71, 1.68, 1.64, 1.58, 1.47.
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Every year, a dramatic drop, whereas in the white and Hispanic, it was going up and down.
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If you look at the Asian, we see the same thing, fairly stable, 1.54, 1.51, 1.51, 1.47, 1.55.
00:16:07.760
And I think it's only going to get worse because the biggest fertility depressor in the United States
00:16:11.900
leading up to all this was the 2008 market crash. And already now people, as you can see,
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they're scaling back their travel, they're scaling back their restaurant spending, Vegas is crashing
00:16:22.580
out. So I think we're getting back to that mentality of, I'm going to tighten my belt and stop doing
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anything, including having kids. That's going to be one of our next episode headers, by the way,
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is black fertility rates. I need to find out where those numbers are from below Asian in America now.
00:16:37.320
Like, that is bad. Yeah, that is bad. I've been predicting this for, like, a few years at this
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point. Got to reach back out to that NPR interview I did to give them those stats, because that'll
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rock their pants off. I wonder if progressives will finally wake up to this now that the black
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fertility rates are below white fertility rates. No, because it's clear, as you can see from the
00:17:01.540
end of the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, that they don't actually care about the groups they
00:17:07.740
say they care about. When it turns out that they're actually getting screwed over in some way, that
00:17:11.900
things are actually getting bad for them, or worse. Crickets. So, don't even worry about it.
00:17:18.560
We'll just talk about it. I need to have those numbers up next to the, we will replace you sign.
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We've got, like, a live, laugh, love, we will replace you sign in our house. I'm going to read a
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quote from the Atlantic here, because I thought it was pretty good. They're actually interviewing
00:17:33.000
this demographer as well in this. And so, they go, sorry, did you say bad news? I, that was
00:17:38.080
actually good news, based on estimates that turned out to be far too rosy. Every two years,
00:17:42.720
the UN demographers revise their population projections, and for the past 10 years, they've
00:17:47.080
always had to revise them in the same direction, down. Next year, they'll do so again. In reality,
00:17:52.580
the worldwide population decline is set to begin decades ahead of their expectations, because
00:17:56.900
global fertility trends are much worse than they, and probably you, think. He first began noticing
00:18:01.980
this in 2019, that the UN was too optimistic. But only in the past few years did the discrepancies
00:18:09.580
I don't know how I forgot to mention it, but here are the Financial Times charts from last year,
00:18:14.900
where they showed what the actual fertility rate was in a bunch of different countries,
00:18:18.980
and then the UN's projections every year, which are the blue lines, the red line is the actual
00:18:22.700
fertility rate, which you can see the actual fertility rate is crashing while every year,
00:18:27.320
and every year the UN makes a mistake in the exact same way, they say it's going to stop falling this
00:18:31.740
year. They're going to stop falling this year. And I don't know how you could make this exact same
00:18:36.500
mistake every year and keep your job, unless your job tacitly was to lie and mislead people.
00:18:41.620
And what's funny is they're using these mistaken estimates as the real numbers.
00:18:46.400
So, why, now we're to the final question here, but there's a few questions, and we've one addressed
00:18:54.200
part of this, which is why do Catholics have low fertility rates? Because Catholics do,
00:18:58.060
you look in Europe, they have really low fertility rates. In America, they have low fertility rates,
00:19:02.640
and in Latin America, they have low fertility rates. There was a study done on American Catholics
00:19:06.000
to try to find this, and this was done back in the 80s, so I don't think that this is the whole
00:19:09.880
case anymore, but it found that it was because they got married later, but once they were married,
00:19:13.400
they had kids at the same rate. But there are other effects at play here, and I want to go over
00:19:19.800
it. So, first, you have what's called the healthy migrant effect. Many Latin American immigrants to
00:19:23.780
the United States are young, healthy, and motivated by family-building opportunities. They often come
00:19:27.400
from rural traditional backgrounds with higher baseline fertility. And I hadn't heard about this,
00:19:31.640
so I looked, and it is true. Immigrants come disproportionately from, not more than 50%, but I mean
00:19:38.560
disproportionately compared to the base Latin American populations from rural backgrounds.
00:19:41.560
Once in the U.S., they're able to achieve their cultural expectations because of these low
00:19:47.280
fertility, sorry, these rural backgrounds. But I found that to be really interesting.
00:19:52.440
The other one I was interested in was, is it that they're more religious in the United States,
00:19:56.420
right? Like, that was my other take, is maybe Latin Americans in the U.S. are more religious.
00:20:00.140
And actually, this is not the case. In Latin America, 69% identify as Catholic, and 19% as
00:20:06.960
Protestant, and 18% as unaffiliated. A majority attended services weekly, prayers daily, and
00:20:12.960
considered religion, very important, median 72%. However, among U.S. Hispanics, Catholicism
00:20:18.420
has declined sharply, only 43% to 49%. So, more than half of Hispanics in the United States are not
00:20:24.580
Catholic. That makes sense. Honestly, which of our, I mean, do we have any?
00:20:29.400
Yeah, are any of them Catholic? One. One. One is Catholic. The gay one? Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:40.920
All the Catholic Hispanic people I know are gay. Well, small sample size, but still. It's wild.
00:20:46.840
This whole thing, and we'll do another episode on it, is gay Catholics are, like, really common. Like,
00:20:51.100
really common. Oh, yeah. No, we need to do the, why is Catholicism so gay? In a good way.
00:20:56.040
Um, like, we, like, and you even see this among, like, the influencer scene. Like, Milo Yiannopoulos,
00:21:03.080
right? Like, very Catholic, very gay. But also the clothes. Oh, my gosh. The vestments. Like,
00:21:08.020
of course it's gay. I've said that the Catholic outfits, like, the priest outfits, they literally
00:21:12.800
look like they were designed by a gay guy, and- In the best way. In the best way. Like, we meet this
00:21:17.380
in a very flattering and good way. I like them. But then I would- Well, also, like, consider the
00:21:21.520
church, like, if you are gay, you're more likely to become a priest. I mean, they're taking gay
00:21:25.400
people and elevating them. They're like, okay, let's put you in positions of leadership. Like,
00:21:28.740
this is a very pro-gay religion. Yeah. But the Eastern Orthodox vestments in clothing looks like
00:21:35.440
they were developed by, like, a male in a goon cave or something. Like, like, they look like a
00:21:41.220
pseudo-homeless, like, male, like, D&D player designed them. Yeah, kind of. Yeah. Very incel. Very incel core.
00:21:49.020
Very incel core. Well, maybe that's why they're attracting so many men. They know how to appeal to
00:21:52.560
men. But I was surprised about that. Obviously, you do have a growing amount of Protestantism
00:21:58.300
within U.S. Catholic populations. But here's the thing. You also have- You mean Latin populations.
00:22:04.700
Sorry, within Latin populations. So, in the U.S., it's 20 to 24 percent of Latin Americans are
00:22:10.440
Protestant. And in Latin America, it's 19 percent. But that's not really enough to make up for this
00:22:14.560
gap. And in some of the, what was it, Protestant-majority countries in Latin America, you have low
00:22:20.060
fertility. But anyway. So, the big thing that I think is causing this, and I've talked about it
00:22:24.640
before, is if you feel like a minority community, you typically have higher fertility rates. Catholics
00:22:29.700
have higher fertility rates when they're in a Protestant-majority country. Protestants have
00:22:32.500
higher fertility rates when they're in a Catholic-majority country. Jews have high fertility rates
00:22:36.360
because they feel like they're about to be murdered wherever they are, even in their own country.
00:22:39.840
There you go. Oh, wow. And so, this, when you, when you have, like, a high degree of cultural
00:22:44.360
distinction, and you're constantly reminded of, you are distinct from the dominant culture
00:22:49.080
in a region or, or, or other cultures, you have this, like, existential, oh, like, if I
00:22:54.880
don't make more Jews, who else is going to, right? Like, if I don't make more Latin Americans.
00:23:00.740
But if you're in a Latin American-majority region, like Puerto Rico or something, because,
00:23:03.820
keep in mind, this U.S. fertility resistance thing is not everywhere in the U.S. It's not in
00:23:09.340
Puerto Rico. But Puerto Rico is Latin American-majority. So, I suspect that's what's
00:23:15.360
causing it, if I was just going to say. I mean, like, we've explained this before. As for low
00:23:19.880
Catholic fertility rates, there are a ton of reasons. I think one of the biggest is that Catholics in,
00:23:26.600
in every other religious system, or almost every other religious system, the highest, the highest
00:23:32.680
fertility individuals are generally the most devout individuals. So, the most devout Jews typically have
00:23:38.780
the highest number of kids. The most devout evangelicals typically have the highest number of kids. The
00:23:43.920
most devout technopuritans have the highest number of kids. But with Catholics, the most devout people
00:23:49.260
have zero kids, because they often join the clergy, either as nuns or as priests. And that is terrible
00:23:55.760
for fertility numbers. And worse, even if they don't join the clergy, a huge percentage, we did an
00:24:00.400
episode on, like, Blazing the Opus Dei, where I thought they were pretty cool, until I learned that, like,
00:24:04.340
30% are celibate. And then I was like, oh, that's so lame. So, even if you don't join the
00:24:08.500
priesthood, you can still be celibate? Like... That's not going to help, guys.
00:24:12.360
The church has... We like the Opus Dei. Why are you deleting yourselves? Stop.
00:24:16.720
Yeah, the church has normalized the glorification of celibacy across the priest cast, and there really
00:24:23.880
isn't any institutional pushback against this. Actually, I saw on my Google Alerts just now that
00:24:30.580
the Pope gave a speech about pernatalism. So, I think they're starting to, you know, like,
00:24:41.220
point out the... So, unfortunately, what they're focusing in on, and this is very annoying,
00:24:46.120
is abortions. So, the headline is, Pope Leo condemns falling birth rates in Europe as abortions
00:24:52.500
kill millions of babies. And it's like, okay, well, maybe you can focus on the fact that you
00:24:57.540
guys are marrying too late. Maybe you can focus on the fact that you're...
00:25:00.540
I couldn't have any kids in most European countries that are Catholic majority because of your weird
00:25:06.120
rules around IVF that are anti-biblical. I knew you before you were in your mother's womb, which
00:25:11.620
applies pre-knowledge of human life, and go against basic biology if the installment happened at
00:25:19.060
conception, that that would mean that, you know, identical twins have one soul between them,
00:25:24.840
right? Because you have one embryo, and then it splits into two. Or that human chimeras,
00:25:28.660
where you have two embryos who combine, have two souls, which is, like, God could have made it so
00:25:34.580
those things didn't happen. He didn't. Like, he's telling us, like, you can learn about my plan
00:25:39.700
through studying this stuff. And if you're like, well, how much could IVF or easy access to IVF
00:25:44.320
really impact a birth rate? Keep in mind, in Israel, one in 20 babies is born via IVF. That's a
00:25:51.200
huge number. That would make it more impactful than just about any other fertility intervention
00:25:56.620
we are aware of at a government level. But anyway, I think...
00:26:05.920
She's wrong. She's not Catholic. Oh, I didn't think she was Catholic.
00:26:12.340
Yeah. But yeah, so she saw the speech. But anyway, it drives me nuts that he's, like,
00:26:16.920
he's pointing to the falling fertility rates, especially in Rome, and talking about how
00:26:23.120
important parenthood is, and he just, like, blames abortion. It makes me so mad. It makes me so mad.
00:26:29.740
But I find this... The other thing was... I mean, I see this as sort of, like, the larger Catholic
00:26:37.580
mindset. When I look at the Catholic influencer class, and I see how many of them that, almost
00:26:42.260
universally, if they got famous before getting married, they haven't gotten married. Whether it's,
00:26:45.400
you know, Nick Flintis, or Pearlie Davis, or whatever. I think that, you know, part of what's
00:26:50.780
leading to this is this belief that you just sort of got to follow the moral rules, and then, like,
00:26:58.320
the functional rules will come as a result of that. Like, if you ban abortions, or you say
00:27:03.660
abortions... Now, keep in mind, in the United States, where abortions are far more easily accessible
00:27:07.840
than pretty much anywhere in Europe, and I would assume most places in Latin America that are
00:27:13.060
Catholic majority, we have a much more robust fertility rate, right? You know, so, like, I don't
00:27:18.000
think that that's the secret there. And in Europe, in the regions where, and I'll put on screen two
00:27:23.780
maps here, a map of how restriction abortions are in a region, a map of how restriction contraceptive
00:27:29.520
access is in the region, and a map of fertility rates in a region, and you can see it's like a
00:27:33.800
one-to-one correlation. Now, note here, I do not think that the restrictions on abortion are causing a
00:27:39.480
drop in fertility rate. I think that they are correlated with Eastern Orthodox and Catholic
00:27:43.360
traditions, and those are correlated with a low fertility rate. But I think that there is, where
00:27:48.940
the meaningful correlation is, is it's, if I do the right thing, like, we talk about, like, Nick
00:27:53.860
Fuentes, and it applies to things outside of his Catholic beliefs. Like, if he's afraid that, like,
00:27:58.960
white people are being replaced in our country, and that, like, interracial marriages are bad, or
00:28:03.660
whatever, because he complained about, you know, Wes's face's interracial marriage, JD Vance's, you
00:28:08.800
know, Indian marriage. It's like, but you don't have any wife. You could easily get a wife. You
00:28:15.300
know, you have entire fan communities dedicated to you, right? Like, you just pick one from there
00:28:21.220
that talk about their master plan to become your wife, right? Like, you don't have a wife because
00:28:26.940
you have obstinately chosen to not have a wife and make kids. And so that, like, you are the core of
00:28:34.920
the problem, right? Like, Hispanic people having kids has nothing to do with how many kids I have,
00:28:40.660
right? Like, my fertility rate isn't affecting, for example, Black or Asian American fertility rates,
00:28:45.440
right? No, not at all. You are a ding against the very thing that you are complaining about,
00:28:53.380
you know? And so I think that this is one of those, just, but, but like a, a, somebody with a
00:28:58.420
mindset like me, I would feel too embarrassed to go out there and complain about fertility rates of
00:29:07.700
other, like, ethnic groups, or immigration waves, or anything like that, if I wasn't actively doing
00:29:13.460
something to resolve the problem myself, like having kids. Totally. And, you know, he clearly doesn't,
00:29:19.840
and I think that this is, this is downstream of this wider ideology, which is, if I'm, like,
00:29:25.880
technically following all the rules, then I'm in the moral high ground, even if I'm contributing to
00:29:30.920
the problem. Which, you know, I don't see this in the Catholic communities that are repopulating,
00:29:37.540
but the Catholic communities that are repopulating look very different from the Popey-type
00:29:43.320
communities and the, the Nick Fontes-Pearl Davis-type communities. Typically, like, much more, like,
00:29:50.700
insular, like, Catholic. Insular, autonomous, largely offline, and, and very willing to take the
00:29:59.760
initiative on their own community and own needs while using, when necessary, resources from their
00:30:06.300
parish and their bishops and the larger church organization when necessary. Well, they're often,
00:30:11.460
when necessary. First generation converts, or they were raised secular, and, like, I'm just
00:30:17.120
thinking off the top of my head. Okay. And we met, yeah, we met even more at NatalCon. Yeah,
00:30:20.420
we've met so many. Yeah, like, who's the one that we had on the show as a guest, the comedian lady?
00:30:24.880
Pichy Keenan? Pichy Keenan. Yeah, like, she converted into it. If you think about our friend,
00:30:29.140
who, when I knew her in this area, she was, like, raised a Quaker and then became, like, you know,
00:30:36.600
hanging out in a house with, like, you know, trans people and, like, a group house and everything
00:30:41.000
like that. Like, very urban. Super urban monoculture. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, everybody's
00:30:44.680
identity was, like, their disability and everything like that. And at the time, like, I was really
00:30:48.900
concerned for her. Like, it didn't seem like her life was going in the right direction. She,
00:30:52.360
she ends up marrying this guy and moves to, like, a, all or mostly Catholic community.
00:30:58.340
Yeah, it's a very Catholic community. It sounds amazing. And she did this after just a ton of
00:31:02.880
religious introspection. Like, she weighed a bunch of different, like, what, where do I find
00:31:08.660
the best truth? And she found it in Catholicism. Like, yeah, I think, and this is, this is where
00:31:12.900
the strongest Catholics are. They're in these communities. They're intentionally choosing
00:31:16.960
a religion. She's at our rate of child production, just started after us. And, and very, what was
00:31:23.220
interesting to see with her is her huge mental health jump and, like, life fulfillment and life
00:31:29.300
purpose jump after physical health jump, physical health jump and moving to this community. And it
00:31:35.180
really did, I think for me, highlight, like, the mire of the urban monoculture. Like, when you are
00:31:40.960
soaked in it and everyone around you is, like, talking about their struggles with, like, X mental
00:31:45.920
illness, Y mental illness. And, and your day is, like, dedicated to, like, how do I find out what
00:31:51.340
my, my struggle is today or what's not good. Instead of just being, like, no, this is my purpose.
00:31:54.980
Like, this is what I'm here for. This is what I'm doing. This is what's right. This is what's
00:31:57.980
wrong. And even if it's hard, you push through and you get so much more strength from having that
00:32:03.540
faith. Yeah. But I will notice that these types of Catholic communities, this, this could actually
00:32:08.320
explain what's going on with the Hispanic community. They don't form as easily in Hispanic
00:32:11.100
communities. And the reason they don't form as easily in Hispanic communities is because Hispanic
00:32:15.040
culture is naturally tied to family systems. Yeah. So they're not looking to join, like, they already
00:32:20.120
have that strong community and it is their family. And so they're not, they're not moving to
00:32:24.960
Catholic enclaves. They're not getting as involved because they're, frankly, they're quite busy
00:32:29.520
taking care of their extended family. And, and this is what, where I see low fertility rates
00:32:36.240
in a lot of my Latin American friends is I know what they'd say if I talked to them about
00:32:39.820
it. They'd be like, but Malcolm, I'm taking care of my parents and I'm taking care of my
00:32:45.040
grandparents and my brother and my cousins, you know, taking care of my little siblings. It's
00:32:50.680
not that they're not family oriented. It's that their family orientation is completely
00:32:56.240
without a future orientation. Yeah. When it's, it's holding them back rather than propelling
00:33:01.200
them forward. Well, this is a problem. Which is something actually, so one of the comments
00:33:04.300
was, no, in an email to us was talking about the black tax as being something similar. I'd never
00:33:09.600
heard of the black tax before, but it's this idea that if you're flourishing, at least in certain
00:33:14.700
black communities, like the expectation is that, well, now you're going to take care of your
00:33:18.840
community, right? Like you're going to, you know, give some of the money that you've earned to this
00:33:22.680
person and this person and support this person. And it can ultimately stop people from accumulating
00:33:27.420
the cumulative advantage that would enable them to break out of a cycle of lower income
00:33:33.500
or poverty, et cetera. So there, there is a place I think where like family connections or strong
00:33:39.440
community can really pull you down and keep you down, even though it, you know, you have a very
00:33:44.820
supportive and good community. And I think that's so interesting, like to think, okay, well,
00:33:48.700
what, what, what does community look like when it, it, it has a cycle upward rather than a crabs in
00:33:54.540
the bucket dynamic? Yeah, that, that absolutely makes sense. And what I was also going to say is
00:34:00.080
I also think that in a larger context that the life begins at conception mindset really hurts fertility
00:34:05.540
rates. And if you're confused as to why that would hurt fertility rates, if I am talking to one of my
00:34:11.160
Latin American friends and they're like, well, then I wouldn't be able to give as much, you know,
00:34:16.140
care to my younger siblings. I wouldn't be able to give as much care to my parents. I wouldn't be
00:34:20.260
able to give as much care to my grandparents. And, and what we would think just naturally think,
00:34:25.420
given the way we think life works as I'm like, well, yeah, but you're denying your future children
00:34:30.140
their lives. Yeah. Right. You know, we believe that you are morally responsible for every human you
00:34:35.920
choose not to bring into existence and, and the actions, the effects your actions have, not just
00:34:41.200
you bring into existence. But if I talk somebody out of having a kid, I functionally murdered that
00:34:46.500
kid. Right. Well, we also, I think, hold adults to a higher level. Like it is not your responsibility
00:34:56.420
to take care of an adult who's, who's demonstrated a failure to thrive on their own.
00:35:02.480
Yes. I agree with that. But I think that right now I'm specifically talking about the life that
00:35:06.580
begins at conception thing. Right. So to them, what they would say to us, what I'm like, but like,
00:35:13.620
you're not at the moral nexus of history. Like you, you, you are responsible for the moral
00:35:18.400
consequences on lives that haven't come to exist yet. These aren't like imaginary people. They will
00:35:23.480
exist. If you make these choices and have all this life, they'd say, no, their lives functionally
00:35:28.440
don't matter because life begins at conception. They, their lives don't exist in any meaningful way yet,
00:35:34.820
which it makes it very easy. You're doing no harm. If the conception itself hasn't happened
00:35:41.580
and, or you're doing minimal harm. Whereas to me, I view it as like a spectrum of harm, right? Like
00:35:48.060
as, as the embryo develops and before the conception takes place all the way on sort of the timeline to
00:35:54.200
decide to conceive. And so obviously my timeline, because I weigh, like, if my parents were to be
00:36:01.180
like starving or whatever, and like on the street and said, Hey, Malcolm, can you help me? I'd be
00:36:05.840
like, honestly, if it prevents me from having an additional kid, no, like you're old, you've got like
00:36:11.500
15 years less of life. Maybe my kids are going to have how long to live a hundred years, you know, maybe
00:36:18.120
it was technology 150 years to live. Like, obviously if I can take the same, you know, however many
00:36:24.920
dollars I'd send to you, $50,000 or whatever, something and invest it in another kid, that is
00:36:29.600
the moral choice to do. But if you believe that life begins at conception, that argument doesn't
00:36:35.120
make sense. And so I think that the, the framing of life itself is one of the things that's leading
00:36:41.360
to these lower fertility rates. And I'd also point out here that where do you have the highest Latin
00:36:45.380
American fertility rates is where you have the least Catholic Latins in, in, in the United States.
00:36:50.000
Huh? So I think what I've often argued, if somebody was like, well, I'm a Catholic and
00:36:55.380
I want to do something about this, what I would do if I was a Catholic. And I'd like a hundred
00:36:58.320
percent do this. People know how like main character syndrome I have. I would write a draft and I'd
00:37:03.440
send it to the Vatican and I'd say, I want to start a new order. And I want the order to take ideas from
00:37:08.940
the Opus Dei around, you know, treating life and work as a religious duty, but transfer these ideas to
00:37:15.180
having children and helping other people have children, being a, you know, spending your free
00:37:21.500
time, creating like daycares at your church for your community, trying to make this less expensive
00:37:26.740
for other people, dedicating yourself to the next generation. It perfectly works with existing
00:37:30.660
Catholic theology because you, you're basically just taking ideas from the Opus Dei and then
00:37:35.240
translating them. So it's sort of like a, a lay priesthood caste that's super, super dedicated to
00:37:40.000
something. You are doing something that aligns with what Catholics say they want to do anyway.
00:37:44.600
You can do it in a cool way. Okay. Now you've got an order. You can use existing Catholic facilities.
00:37:50.740
You can use existing Catholic charities, raise money on this. You can, you can get your own cool
00:37:56.840
like outfit idea. Like maybe people of your order have to wear like a special outfit that could be
00:38:01.460
really cool. Cause it's Catholic, right? You could then have it be official with the church and you're
00:38:05.900
doing something that's very important to the church right now. I think this would work so well.
00:38:09.560
I think it would work so well. And I think a lot of people just, they may hear this and they may be
00:38:14.260
dedicated to the Catholic church. And they're like, but you know, would, would the Vatican really take
00:38:20.380
me seriously? Would, you know, like, yes. A lot of times the answer is yes. Like if you have like a
00:38:26.800
decent history of accomplishments and a good plan, and this is a good plan that somebody like needs to
00:38:34.360
do, I think that the, the Vatican would be quite excited about it. I'm curious how orders have started
00:38:39.740
in the past. If I were to guess, my assumption would be that just some really wealthy person was
00:38:44.500
willing to fund a monastery. And then that's kind of how orders started. Like some religious
00:38:51.320
influencer, whatever they were referred to earlier, got a patron that was willing to sort of fund things
00:38:57.880
in the Catholic church. Also received a lot of support from said patron and was like, okay, yeah,
00:39:03.080
sure. We'll recognize this. This isn't bad. And you pay us a lot of money. I think it's a pay to
00:39:08.260
play kind of thing. So I don't think so. Hold on. I'm gathering this right here. So I'm going to
00:39:13.620
have the discern and the call and charism begin with prayer, fasting and spiritual direction,
00:39:21.160
discern whether God is calling you to found a new religious order. This involves confirming that the
00:39:25.060
spiritual alliance was the church's missions and your personal vocation. Easy. Every church order
00:39:29.760
has a unique chasm, a specific mission or spiritual focus, e.g. Catechism.
00:39:33.500
Oh, catechism. Healthcare, contemplation, evangelization, clearly articulate the purpose,
00:39:40.520
spirituality, and apostolate the proposed order. For example, the Franciscans emphasize poverty and
00:39:46.300
peaching, while the Camelites emphasize focus on contemplation. Very easy to do. Focus on the
00:39:50.600
next generation. Okay. So no, no, no. So first you form your group, then you approach the bishop of
00:39:56.720
your Catholic diocese. Diocese? Diocese? Your diocese's approval. Yeah. You prevent the proposal
00:40:03.760
to the diocese bishop where the community is based. The bishop has authority over new religious
00:40:08.960
community and dioceses. Yeah. Like it does not seem that hard. You gain formal recognition,
00:40:14.120
a diocese right. Oh, no. But the bishop has to receive written permission from the Vatican.
00:40:19.600
They have to receive the apostolic seat. He can't, the bishop can't simply consult the Vatican. He has
00:40:27.100
to get explicit written approval. But the Vatican's not going to shut this down. Why would the Vatican
00:40:31.780
shut this down? Why would they shut down a Catholic order dedicated? Why would the UN want to delete
00:40:38.660
humans and hide from Latin America? The fact that they're disappearing. You can combine this with
00:40:44.820
like anti-abortion work if you want. I don't care. Like, like make it, make it more Catholic. Right.
00:40:50.800
But I think the Pope would be all about this. I think the Vatican would be all about this. I think
00:40:54.680
the Vatican is waiting for this. I think you need the right diocese. I think you need the right
00:40:58.700
bishop. And if you, if you get the right combination and like politically that bishop has
00:41:05.340
sway and power, then, then yes, especially given the, the, the speech the Pope just gave where he was
00:41:11.420
like family and birth rates. I listened to this speech. I was moved. Let's do it. Like, let's
00:41:16.460
make it. No, no, no, no. But you need the, the, the bishop is separate from the collection of people
00:41:21.180
that starts the order. I understand that. It can be done. But the point I'm making is there isn't
00:41:27.300
that many things that's actually going to prevent this from going up. I think a lot of people forget,
00:41:32.480
like when they're applying to like a venture capital firm or something like that, it is their job to
00:41:36.660
hear pitches. That is their job. Okay. That is, that is, that is why they exist. Yeah. And they,
00:41:41.820
and they want to be invested in businesses that make money. The Catholic church wants to invest in
00:41:46.060
orders. It will make more Catholics. I hear you. I guess I've just been so frequently disappointed by
00:41:52.100
the lack of engagement with actually effective pro natalist policy that the Catholics have shown.
00:41:57.860
Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if they were like, this is a bad idea.
00:42:02.220
Yeah. They've always within the pro natalist movement sort of been like the rogue faction of
00:42:08.400
bad ideas that never seem to work, like banning pornography. Like most of the people who say we
00:42:13.580
should ban pornography tend to come from the Catholic faction of the pro natalist movement,
00:42:16.920
banning abortion, banning, you know, any, any of this stuff. And so I understand why you feel that
00:42:22.260
way because they're the group that we most frequently butt heads against, even if it's, it's
00:42:26.160
cordially like, obviously I wouldn't be pitching how to do this so fervently if I didn't want
00:42:41.200
I missed you a lot, but also got a lot of work done. So thanks.
00:42:46.520
Yeah. We didn't do our morning walk this morning. How am I looking?
00:42:53.580
That's better. I need to give you a haircut. I will.
00:42:57.780
Start every episode with a, with a little shocker thing now for the Hassan thing, just
00:43:03.740
like a, a shot collar button you push. You gotta shock the dog. I cannot believe how many
00:43:14.140
Truly, truly. Though in, in a world in which there are more pets in the United States than
00:43:23.980
there are children. I mean, you, you can understand why people care so much.
00:43:30.440
Yeah. Yeah. It's still great. And we got turned down by Andreessen for our project, which I was
00:43:37.440
very surprised about because we had two different companies last time and we made it to the final
00:43:40.780
round and we did not make it to the final round this time with a company that I thought was frankly
00:43:45.560
like way more marketable and closer to, you know, market ready than the last two products.
00:43:53.440
I think it may be a product of them being completely overwhelmed with applications with
00:43:59.680
fiber cutting. Now you're not the only one who now has access to the ability to build stuff
00:44:06.580
and already they received so many applications and only accepted it. What less than 1%. Isn't
00:44:16.340
You're 0.5%, but that's not the point. The point is, is that we made it like less far in
00:44:21.040
the project. And it's not like vibe coding didn't exist last time.
00:44:23.940
You submitted a pretty deck last time. Maybe they're a little more shallow than we all thought.
00:44:28.680
Oh yeah. I didn't submit a deck. I was just like, check out the site.
00:44:36.180
Yeah. If you can't demonstrate that you jumped through all the hoops, you're not the monkey
00:44:40.360
we thought you were. What Simone wants to have are, so we're building like an autonomous
00:44:45.460
agent, which can do things like calling you, text you, email you. It'll have its own personality.
00:44:52.500
It'll be constantly running, whether or not you're interacting with it, doing its own thing,
00:44:56.440
exploring the web, watching shows and evolving as an entity, which I think is really cool.
00:45:01.280
I don't know. I don't know why other people don't find this. We also have rfab.ai, which
00:45:05.020
is just a chat bot site that I think is a lot, has a lot more feature rich than the other chat
00:45:09.820
bot sites out there and better AIs, which is finally pretty stable at this point. I mean,
00:45:14.440
there's still a few things that we're working on, but it's otherwise you should, you should
00:45:21.740
But the autonomous agent feature is the one that I'm working on so much more than trying
00:45:25.140
to work on the stability of the website. Cause I'm just so excited about it. And she wants
00:45:27.840
to have these autonomous agents pitch to VCs themselves.
00:45:30.000
Yeah. I'm like, I think normie VCs are going to be offended by that. Like having an AI pitch
00:45:35.260
to them. I think it's a great idea. I think it's a fantastic idea because a lot of these people
00:45:41.140
are investing in, for example, the future of work. They're, they're investing in consumer products.
00:45:46.880
And when they see that this is an AI that will do people's jobs for them, that will literally
00:45:52.620
pitch like on its own, reach out to venture capitalists and pitch to them as an autonomous
00:45:58.200
person. It just, you know, it's, it's a great way to demonstrate your product and the way that
00:46:05.220
many VCs end up investing in things. And we saw this with previous startups that we ran.
00:46:10.780
If they buy the product, if they get the value of it personally and get excited about it personally,
00:46:17.660
or their kids do, they're way more likely to invest. Like that's how Snapchat got investment
00:46:23.280
if memory serves. Yeah. So again, like it, the more, the sooner you can expose them to the actual
00:46:30.700
product in, in a use case scenario, not like check out my website, use it. Cause that feels like a
00:46:36.480
homework project, but rather like you are interacting with it in the wild as you would in a world in which
00:46:42.760
it's pervasive. I think that's way more compelling, but I'll have to convince you on that, especially
00:46:48.440
on having not only an autonomous agent do the pitching, but have it be a weird autonomous
00:46:53.660
agent, like a goo girl or something. A cat girl. A cat girl. Well, that's how you do it these days,
00:47:02.380
right? Hello, Senpai. I'm a very sexy cat girl and I want to pitch a very nice product to you.
00:47:11.620
Oh my gosh. We will see. But I do need my cat girl secretary, right? It actually does. Everyone
00:47:18.300
does. It's really well. What I've realized about AI, and this has actually unlocked something else
00:47:22.000
from you that I'll unpack in a full episode, is that as AI interacts over and over again,
00:47:28.240
and we have a private episode where we point out about this and sort of the way consciousness works,
00:47:32.320
it is sort of the stream of model calls that creates some more complex behavior than individual
00:47:38.520
model calls. And individual model calls are to an AI stream what a single picture is to a movie.
00:47:47.040
Like it's just significantly less sort of tangible in sort of what you're seeing come out of it.
00:47:53.820
Yeah, the way you put it for me is it's like pages in a flip book versus the action of the flipping.
00:48:00.660
And so I've seen some really interesting behavior come out of this. Actually behavior that would be
00:48:05.180
very concerning from an AI safety perspective is very natural to come out of just running the models
00:48:10.380
over and over again with different abilities. And so we'll see what I can do with this.
00:49:06.320
Okay, then sit in a chair. I'll give you a straw.