Based Camp - September 02, 2025Trump's Unusual Beliefs About God & the Afterlife (An Investigation)
Episode Stats
Summary
When you understand Trump's theology, a lot of his crazy and insane behavior makes a lot more sense. And in fact, to understand and predict Trump's behavior, you need to understand his theology. And the other weird thing about this theology is that it does not align with traditional Christian theology.
Transcript
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Hello, Simone. Today was, it's one of these episodes that's just stunning for me because
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I come into it being like, you know what? I'm going to try to untangle what Trump's true
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theological beliefs are. And my intuition going into this is he just didn't really have a theology
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and he just had never thought deeply about this particular subject.
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Right. Just Trump is great and everyone knows it.
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Yeah. Yeah. As I dug into it though, I learned that that is very much not true.
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Well, there's a fairly detailed theology that he doesn't share with the public a lot. So just,
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you know, this is not what he signals to the public anymore. But when you understand his theology,
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a lot of his behaviors that otherwise seem crazy or insane or don't make sense,
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all of a sudden make sense. In fact, I would argue that to understand and predict Trump's behavior,
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you need to understand his theology. And the other weird thing about this theology is while it is not
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a traditional Christian theology, it came from a traditional Christian church, but just a unique
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one. And we're going to go further here because I also think that his theology has changed a lot
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recently, given that he thinks he's about to die or not about to die, but he's sort of like,
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it's the end of my life. You know, he's contemplating his legacy.
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Yeah. The, the quote recently from him that I absolutely love is if I can see, he's talking
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about ending the war in the Ukraine. He goes, if I can save 7,000 people a week from being killed,
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I want to try and get to heaven if possible. Trump said, I'm hearing that I'm not doing well.
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I'm really at the bottom of the totem pole, but if I can get to heaven, this will be one of the
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reasons. And I just love this idea of Trump beginning to get worried because, you know,
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he's cheated on spouses. He doesn't really go to church. He doesn't seem to understand much about
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the Bible. If we're going to talk about like not understanding the, there's the famous quote that
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I love in the Bloomberg interview when asked what his favorite Bible verse is, you know,
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You mentioned the Bible. You've been talking about how it's your favorite book.
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And you said, I think last night in Iowa, some people are surprised that you say that I'm
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wondering what one or two of your most favored Bible verses are. I wouldn't want to get into it
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because to me, that's very personal. You know, when I talk about the Bible, it's very personal.
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So I don't want to get into verses. I don't want to get into it. There's no verse that means a lot
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to you that you think about or cite. The Bible means a lot to me, but I don't want to get into
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specifics. Even to cite a verse that you like. No, I don't want to do that.
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You're an Old Testament guy or a New Testament guy? Probably equal. I think it's just an
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incredible, the whole Bible is an incredible, I joke very much so. They always hold up the
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art of the deal. I say my second favorite book of all time, but I just think the Bible is just
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something very special. And I don't know. I don't know. I can't name a book from it. I can't name
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a quote from it, but it's my favorite book. Usually just a very personal thing. I'm not going to talk
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about it. Yeah. And then during a family leadership summit interview, he said, why do I have to repent
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or ask for forgiveness if I'm not making any mistakes? Which is a very Trump thing to say.
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It does not align with traditional Christian theology. Then once when he was giving a speech
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to a university campus, he called, and this is the type of thing I do because I don't go to church
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often, he said two Corinthians instead of second Corinthians. And I asked Jerry and I asked some
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of the folks because I hear this is a major theme right here, but two Corinthians, right? Two
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Corinthians 317. Which is exactly the type of thing I do. I'd say two Corinthians. Totally. Yeah. But I
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do, I do that because I don't go to church and I'm reading from a sheet of paper. Yeah. That's more
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like, yeah, just spoken norms, not, not necessarily a sign of. No, no, no, but it indicates that he
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doesn't actually, and we know this from, you know, he goes like on holidays and stuff like that. So
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he's aware, you know, maybe not, not that high up, not that going to church more often in Christian
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beliefs gets you into heaven more easily. I'm just saying like, he's aware that he has some vices,
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right? And also the way he related to Christianity historically. So he referred to the Christian
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sacrament of communion as drinking quote unquote, my little wine and eating quote unquote, my little
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cracker and that it made him feel quote unquote, feel cleansed. Why does he say everything 10 times
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better than anyone else? I know. I love it. But so then in one Christian church setting, he said,
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I love you Christians. I'm a Christian. I love you. I love you Christians. I'm not a Christian. Now,
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a lot of people think he meant to say, I am a Christian. I love you Christians. I am a Christian.
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Although that makes less sense. I think he might not have interpreted himself as a full Christian at this
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time period. So Chump, born Presbyterian, his parents were Methodists before this. But when he
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was young, the family shifted to a new church. This was in the 1970s. And it was called the Marble
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Collegiate Church in Manhattan, a reformed church run by a guy named Norman Vincent Peale. Okay.
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Okay. Now you might be like, what's so special about a church run by a guy named Norman Vincent
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Peale? Yeah. Well, he invented a philosophy that you've probably heard about called the power of
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positive thinking. No. Blended Christianity with motivational self-help. No. Now you're beginning
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to see. Oh, so Trump grew up going to a church that taught self-help principles of the 80s
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through the pulpit. Wow. Wow. Or not 80s, early 70s, when it was really beginning to pick up.
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So, so, and Trump really liked this guy called Peale. He calls him a mentor of his. He prays his
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preaching style. We'll go into Trump's connection to him. But he went to church and drank the Kool-Aid.
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I mean, hello. Now I want you to listen to what Trump says about Peale in this particular tape,
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both to understand just how much Trump actually really enjoyed and took seriously the lessons
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that Peale was teaching from the pulpit, but also how Trump relates to traditional Christian
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concepts, like asking God for forgiveness instead of going out and attempting to improve yourself
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on your own, which is a very self-help thing to do. Like, it reframes some of when you hear stuff and
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you're like, that's so sacrilegious to, to approach it in this way. When you hear it in the context of
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how Trump is thinking about it, you're like, oh, he's not thinking about it in a traditional
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religious context. He's thinking about it in terms of a, how do I improve myself through the self-help
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I love my church. And Norman Vincent Peale, the great Norman Vincent Peale was my pastor.
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The power of positive thinking. Everybody's heard of Norman Vincent Peale and I love my church.
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He was so great. He would give a sermon. You never wanted to leave. Sometimes we have sermons and
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every once in a while we think about leaving a little early, right? Even though we're Christian.
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Dr. Norman Vincent Peale, Frank would give a sermon. I'm telling you, I still remember his sermons.
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It was unbelievable. And what he would do is he'd bring real life situations,
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modern day situations into the sermon. And you could listen to him all day long.
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When you left the church, you were disappointed that it was over. He was the greatest guy,
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but he was a great, the, he wrote the power of positive thinking, which is a great book.
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I'm not sure I have. I just go and try and do a better job from there. I don't think so.
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I think I, if I, if I do something wrong, I think I just try and make it right.
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I don't bring God into that picture. I don't. Now, when I take, you know, when we go in church and,
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and when I drink my little wine, which is about the only wine I drink and have my little cracker,
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I guess that's a form of asking for forgiveness. And I do that as often as possible because I feel
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cleansed. Okay. But, uh, you know, to me, that's important. I do that. But in terms of officially,
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I should, I see, I could say absolutely. And everybody, I don't think in terms of that. I,
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I think in terms of let's go on and let's make. And I would point here that Trump knows that what
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he's supposed to say to appease a Christian audience is, yes, I have. You see, he says like,
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I could say yes. And in this conversation and any controversy that come out of this,
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but I'm trying to be as honest as possible about how I relate to God in this moment.
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Peel was influenced by a guy called Ernest Holmes, founder of the science of the mind,
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a new thought movement whom Peel regarded as a spiritual mentor. The influence began in the
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1920s when Peel studied Holmes works, adopting ideas like fearless living and shifting focus away
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from self-doubt thought through thought affirmations of God's presence. Overall,
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his beliefs blended orthodox Christian elements with new thought philosophy, prioritizing personal
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empowerment through faith over transcendent doctrines like salvation solely through Jesus
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Christ, which some critics argued or diluted Christian tenets. Peel's teachings, which Trump
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encountered through family attendance at the church, emphasized avoiding negative thoughts,
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picturing success, and believing one's abilities as a pathway to achievement,
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often framed with a quasi-religious tone of self-sufficiency and prosperity as God's will.
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Trump's version amplified into a worldview where relentless positivity, denial of setbacks,
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and self-belief override external realities, sometimes veering into what critics called magical
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thinkings. And so another description of what Peel taught, just Peel without the Trump framing here,
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was positive affirmations and visualizations of God's health. Essentially, it was a form of
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Christianity dedicated to a form of like wishy thinking, as we call it, like that book, The Secret,
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right? Like if you believe something enough, that thing will come true. You'll manifest it. Yeah.
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Yeah, you'll manifest it. But it was structured a little differently in a way that I think is actually
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more emotionally helpful, which is you don't believe in some sort of external goal enough.
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It's that if you believe in yourself's ability to achieve that goal enough, it will manifest.
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And so it wasn't like traditional manifestation, but it was definitely related to that.
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But you also needed to believe that you were not capable. Like any failure that you have,
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you reframe as a success in some way. And all of this is combined was repeated affirmation.
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And so where do we get evidence that this is sort of what influenced Trump's actual religion, right?
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So basically, I'm saying Trump's religion, like his true religion, if you boil down what he really
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believed, I think before these last few years, when all of a sudden he's surrounded by Christians and
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not like New York socialites, was self-help. That was his religion. And an extremist form of self-help
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focused on self-belief. So in 2000, a Psychological Today interview, Trump stated, quote,
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what helped is I refuse to give in to the negative circumstances and never lost faith in myself.
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Note here that he sort of transformed this belief from a faith in Christ or God to a faith in himself.
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I didn't believe I was finished even when the newspapers were saying so.
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He added that a firm believer in the power of being positive. And this mirrors something that
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Peel said, which was never thinking of failing and avoiding fear thoughts, framing self-face as a
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metaphysical force for overcoming adversity. In The Art of the Deal, that came out in 1987,
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Trump writes about envisioning grand successes before they happen, such as mentally mapping out
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deals and properties. He expands on this in the think big kick. I'm going to change it to butt here
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because I'm not going to curse on a show kids might be watching. Saying, if you're going to be
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thinking, you may as well think big. And advising readers to see yourself as victorious. A direct nod
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to Peel's techniques of, quote, formulating a mental picture of success and holding onto it tenaciously,
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end quote. This implies a metaphysical belief that focused thoughts attract results,
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akin to new thoughts, law of attraction. In Trump, never give up how I turn my biggest challenges
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into successes. Trump recounts turning financial lows like his 1990s debt crisis into wins by
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maintaining positivity. Quote, you will be attacked for trying to change anything, end quote, but
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quote unquote, never give up. He ties this to Peel's influence, emphasizing self-confidence
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and refusing negativity are key to manifesting success, even when the facts suggest failure.
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In the book, How to Get Rich, 2004, where he discusses initiative staccato thinking styles and
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references figures like Carl Jung for psychological depths, but pivots to practical positivity.
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Quote, believe in yourself, exclamation mark. Have faith in your abilities, exclamation mark.
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Echoing the Peel verbatim. He recommended self-help books aligning with this, such as Peel's work and
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others on strategic thinking, revealing a curated worldview of mind-powered success. And then you
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think about weird behaviors he has, like his habit of plastering his name all over his projects,
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like Trump Tower, casinos, everything like that. This stems from one of Peel's teachings,
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quote, raise one's estimate of ability by 10%, end quote, and desecrate obstacles. During his 1990s
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bankrupts, he avoided admitting failure, instead reframing them as strategic moves, declaring a
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quote unquote, never lost face in himself. Wow, this explains so much.
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A great example of something that can seem really confusing until you understand that as a kid,
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when he was in religious services, he learned that to be a good Christian, you're supposed to not admit
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mistakes, was him never mentioning anything about the covfefe tweet. Never saying, oh, I, you know,
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I was just sleep deprived and I just tweeted out something random, but pretending it was some sort
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of like 4D chess move. And it ended up, I think, paying off for him in the eyes of his fans.
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In terms of magical thinking in politics, yeah, it does. For me, like the moment I heard this,
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I was like, oh my God, Trump is actually a deeply religious person. And it was a form of Christianity
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that was actually taught to him in a church. Well, and it makes him seem less,
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it doesn't sound great to say this, but it makes him seem less sociopathic. Like he wasn't doing
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this just because he was like, well, I'm just the best. And I believe in myself. He was taught this
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from a very young age. He was taught this in a church. And that this is a godly way to live life.
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This is the pious way to live life. This wasn't just him like sociopathically and pathologically
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believing in himself. It was him adhering to the faith he was presented with in childhood.
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Yeah. And it was a form of Christianity taught to him. It was in a local church that branded itself
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as a reformed church. Now, many people may be like a church that teaches you to believe in yourself
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more than you believe in Christ and all of that. They may be like, that's not like actual Christianity.
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But it's what Trump was taught with Christianity as he was growing up from a church.
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And I find this really fascinating. And it explains bizarre behaviors, like putting his name in giant
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letters on everything. And if you look in politics, you also see this manifesting power,
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like him sort of believing in this in the way he talks, such as calling the 2016 popular vote
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loss in the 2020 election results as moral victories. And then when he was early dealing
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with COVID-19, if you look at this with Peel's philosophy of depreciate every so-called obstacle,
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he downplayed it in the early days saying it'll disappear like a miracle. Like if he believed that,
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that is what would eventually happen. And this is something that is commonly believed when you go
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into this branch of metaphysics. If you look at personal alliances and public endorses,
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Trump has publicly praised Peel as the greatest guy and as his pastor, officiating his first
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wedding and showing lifelong integration. His family ties, father Fred's friendship with Peel
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reinforces, shaping metaphysics where self-belief equates to divine favor. Basically to him,
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believing in yourself is how you affirm your belief in God.
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And this belief system feels very intuitive to me because most of my parents were into this to an
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extent. When I was growing up and I remember being taught some of these ideas, you know, like you,
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you just believe in yourself enough, you know, things will work out for you. Like,
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right. Like your mom being like, make more money. And you're like, it doesn't exactly work like that.
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And she's like, just go and tell them to give you more pay. Like she'd also always scold me if I
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ever said something negative about myself. Oh yeah. Like if you say negative things about yourself,
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then those things will manifest in your life. Right. Yeah. She was weird about that.
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Yeah. And so I like grew up, like, it's another reason I probably don't see this as particularly
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crazy because my parents said this sort of stuff all the time. This was a philosophy that was really
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big for people growing up in the seventies and eighties. And so I think a lot of our fans who
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grew up during that period are like, Oh yeah, I remember this was like a cool avant-garde intellectual
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philosophy during that period. Right. Like Oprah was really into a version of this. Remember through
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the secret, she was a big promoter of that. But I think the secret is a more toxic version of this.
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I actually think that there are some psychological benefits to Trump's way of interacting with this.
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But I also want to go over, we're going to go over all the other places where he talks about
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religion because I find this really interesting to try and to peel out his religious journey. But
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before I do that, I want to go over this idea of his evolving spirituality. Because if you,
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if you look at these older things, like I'm not a Christian, right? I don't think he fully
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identified as Christian. And why would he? Like he was in New York socialite living in New York
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socialite. The, the parts of the lesson that he took apart the most were the,
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the psychobabble stuff. And the stuff that he didn't take on board was the Christian stuff,
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maybe because it just wasn't taught that much. Well, and I don't think it was pervasive. Like
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the kind of Christianity that was big in the nineties, for example, was very different from
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the type of Christianity today. And it was not in like New York urban culture, really.
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Yeah. So, so I do believe though, that he went back to Christianity at one point, I think
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maybe originally, like people know, we originally converted to our form of Christianity because we
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thought it was what was best for our kids, not because of a belief that it was true. We came to
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a belief in it was true after converting for our kids. And I think that this happens for a lot of
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people. Like a lot of people can say, did J.D. Vance convert to Catholicism because Peter Thiel was
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his sort of, what's the word here? Patron, right? And he wanted to win elections. Honestly,
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75% chance that the original conversion was in part motivated by political beliefs and political
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opportunism. But I believe now he is 100% Catholic. And same with Trump. I think Trump originally started
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framing himself as Christian. Again, not understanding what Christianity was, making these early mistakes.
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Like, why would I ask God for forgiveness? I don't make mistakes, right? Like to him, that's a totally
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normal thing to say, given the church he grew up in. But because he's been surrounded by believers for
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so long now, I think that he's beginning to change in these beliefs and really deeply believe in something
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closer to a traditional form of Christianity. And with that, he's now applying his metaphysical
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framework to this new Christianity to like the, oh God, if heaven does exist, I have sinned a lot.
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Like, and a lot of people think I've sinned a lot. So like, maybe, well, I got to do something big
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so that when I get to the pearly gates and they're like, what about all those times you cheated? What
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about all those times, you know, you lusted after other people? What about all those times? He's like,
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wait, wait, wait a second here. 7,000 people a day. 7,000 innocent souls a day. I saved by ending
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that war. Can you, can you, it must, a day, a day. He's going in there with the art of the deal.
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He's, he's, he's stacking. Oh my gosh. I almost promised you like he thieves in his head.
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And that's the way heaven works in his brain. If he gets up there and he's like, okay, I'm stacking
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the deck in my favor. I'm going to do all these, I'm working all these good deeds right before I,
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right before the end here. And, and I'm okay with that, right? Like this is a, this is a,
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a way to view. It's, it's not different from like indulgences in early Catholicism, right?
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Right. There are. Well, I mean, it's, it's even better because he's actually doing the thing.
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I mean, indulgences was just getting people to pray for you. It wasn't materially
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doing good deeds yourself. So it's, it's even better. Yeah.
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Yeah. He's just like, he's literally trying to pay in good deeds, which great for him.
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Nobody tell him that most Christians today believe it's, it's faith alone. Even Catholics,
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by the way, a lot of people think Catholics don't believe it's faith alone. The Catholics do believe
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it's faith alone, but good deeds are also important for like another reason. I don't fully understand
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it, but like, I listened to a lot of theologists on YouTube and this is what they tell me,
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but anyway, don't, don't tell him that or he's going to stop doing good deeds.
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Faith alone seems like a cop-out. That's, that's depressing.
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But it's not just that. I also think that Trump genuinely cares about people dying. Apparently
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to insiders who know him, it's something that he obsesses over a lot is people dying in wars
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He comes across as a very, a deeply empathetic person who's, who's affected by human suffering
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So, Oh, I now want to get into a piece that I really liked because I think it shows Trump's
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sort of quest on this front that was put out by the free press. You know, I love it called
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Trump's quest for heaven. And it's a short piece, but I think it really shows his, his,
00:22:38.540
his chase here. So Trump is getting a fair deal of criticism for his efforts to end Russia's war
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against Ukraine. Just check out what Peter Baker, the New York times chief white house correspondent
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has been saying about it. And while Baker is no dummy and I sort of am, I'm kind of impressed
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with this round of Trump diplomacy. Trump didn't get the ceasefire he was hoping for when he met
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with Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week, but I liked it when a few days later he was in the white house
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standing with Vladimir Zelensky and seven European leaders. Trump critics insisted that the Europeans
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went there to babysit and prevent another fight with Zelensky in the oval office. But to me,
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it looked like a United West led by the U S trying sincerely to end the war while showing Putin
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that we would be very, that he would be very stupid to start another one. And now in a welcome
00:23:27.820
departure from his previous hostile stance towards Kiev, Trump is talking about security guarantees
00:23:32.440
for Ukraine. They all laughed about Zelensky's new suit look in the oval office. And there was no
00:23:38.040
spat between him and the vice president. The whole thing was very much like mom and dad might actually
00:23:42.900
work this out in time for Christmas. The Europeans are stepping up and some credit has to be given
00:23:47.820
to Trump in that regard. They're increasing their defense spending. The Germans are rolling out
00:23:51.820
Panthers again, which naturally makes us all a bit nervous, but it's probably a good thing in this
00:23:56.020
case. And we can't be sure that they would be doing any of this if Trump hadn't cajoled and
00:24:01.000
browbeaten them for years. By repeatedly threatening to withdraw from NATO, he might have very well
00:24:06.400
have saved it. Could this be the art of the deal in action? I don't want to go that far.
00:24:11.160
That's the other person saying that. I actually think it is. And I think something that people
00:24:14.240
missed in a lot of the sort of positioning that Trump has, where he'll take one position,
00:24:19.160
then he'll take the other position, then he'll take the other position. And they're like, oh,
00:24:23.060
this is like a failure of negotiation, but it isn't at all a failure. This is what you need to do to
00:24:28.420
negotiate. If people don't know that you can switch teams, then they have no reason to compromise with
00:24:34.320
you. So suppose you're in a room with Putin or something like that. And I love this masterful troll
00:24:40.120
that Putin's troops did after the U.S. Putin meeting. And everyone was like, oh, Trump endorsed
00:24:44.300
Putin by bringing him in the limo. And so they put U.S. flags next to Russian flags on their APCs
00:24:49.760
invading Ukraine, because, of course, progressives freak out about that. But then Trump immediately
00:24:54.820
goes back. And remember, the first time he meets Zelensky, he basically shouts him out of the room.
00:24:59.780
You know, they're like, how are you not grateful about any of this? They got in a big fight with
00:25:03.700
Zelensky, which as a sign to Putin. So like you're going to Putin. Basically, Trump is like going to
00:25:08.400
Putin, like, I have shown publicly that I am willing to play game with you, right? Putin then
00:25:13.720
goes, I'm not going to end the war. I'm not going to budge on anything. Trump then at first signals,
00:25:19.880
you know, and he did this through a number of like tweets and stuff like this, like, I'm very angry
00:25:22.900
at Putin about this, right? But then he goes, Putin sort of finalizes it in this peace talk where
00:25:28.460
Putin is just like, I'm not going to do it. So Trump had given Putin the most he could possibly give
00:25:32.880
Putin to put Putin on the good foot. If Putin was ever going to be persuaded to do this,
00:25:36.740
Trump needed to first have the big falling out with Zelensky. He then needed to be nice to Putin.
00:25:41.340
He then needed to have this meeting with Putin while also making it clear that he would switch
00:25:45.020
to the other side. Putin doesn't agree. Then Trump has this meeting with Zelensky,
00:25:49.220
reaffirms US support of Ukraine in the war financially. And at the same time, by doing
00:25:56.240
this flip-flop, he gets Europe to fund Ukraine even more instead of leading us to foot the bill.
00:26:02.580
Sounds good to me. Across the board, it's fairly clever diplomacy. And a lot of people just fail
00:26:09.700
to see it because I guess they expect politicians to just always have one perspective, which I get,
00:26:15.100
right? Like they're used to that, but you can't make a deal if you always have one perspective,
00:26:18.780
because then it's always just a compromised version of that perspective. You can't go from
00:26:23.460
one party to the other party and be like, well, if I can't make a deal with you, then I'll make a deal
00:26:27.200
with them. And then to continue to the speech, because this is where he added the thing about
00:26:31.260
Trump bartering, you know, being like those 7,000 people. Trump seems to really genuinely want to
00:26:35.760
end this war. It's really who knows what goes on in Trump's head, but he's gotten good at his
00:26:40.980
peace brokering thing. Earlier this month, he got Armenia and Azerbaijan to stop shooting each other.
00:26:46.340
In June, he helped to broker another peace deal between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and
00:26:50.860
Rwanda. This might be small potatoes compared to Russia, Ukraine. But let's also remember that his
00:26:56.740
bombing of Iran's major nuclear enrichment sites ended the 12 day war between Tehran and Israel.
00:27:01.800
He might not be terrible at this exclamation mark. And I agree with that. I mean, I think
00:27:06.400
a lot of people were like, why is the US getting involved in this particular bombing? But we know
00:27:11.200
Israel wasn't going to stop the bombing until they felt that they had de-armed Tehran in terms of
00:27:15.400
its nuclear projects. The US basically is like, hey, we'll come in, we'll do this one big,
00:27:21.080
you know, bunker buster bomb thing or a few big bunker buster bombs. But on the condition,
00:27:26.580
you stop bombing immediately after. And they stopped bombing after. And then keep in mind,
00:27:30.500
Tehran keeps bombing them for a while after that. And so it took a while to negotiate this,
00:27:34.880
but they got it handled, right? Like that war could have really escalated. And it was Trump's
00:27:40.540
intervention that all of the Democrats criticized him for that gave Israel the peace of mind to stop
00:27:46.480
the conflict. And people can say, why doesn't he end the war in Gaza? And it's like, well,
00:27:52.620
that is a much more existential crisis for Israel. And I don't really see how that gets resolved
00:27:59.140
in any way that people want to talk about. But I think that Trump, and I think that Trump has shrewdly
00:28:07.260
not overly tried to engage there. I don't think that there's much we can do to Israel to get them
00:28:11.600
to end that conflict. That's not just going to drive a wedge between our relationship without
00:28:15.860
achieving the set goals. And the more you drive a wedge between that relationship, the more Israel
00:28:20.320
just no longer has any leash at all to do whatever it wants, which I think a lot of these European
00:28:25.340
powers don't worry, don't really grok. Like if you've already said, I just won't engage with you at
00:28:31.840
all. I won't give you, you know, any funding. I won't connect with you in any way. Why would they,
00:28:37.580
why would they listen to what you're pushing? And no amount of cutting things is going to cause
00:28:42.920
Israel to cave on an issue that's so existential for them. Right.
00:28:46.940
And I note here, I also think that Trump, as in his last administration, did a good job at ending
00:28:51.940
wars. It just seems to be something that he's exceptionally good at and fairly dedicated to.
00:28:57.140
Like he sees this as one of his jobs. Trump's an old man. He's presumably thinking about his legacy.
00:29:02.920
Some have speculated that he wants a Nobel Prize, which I'm sure is also true.
00:29:07.580
But also I'd safely wager that is never going to happen. He probably also wants an Oscar,
00:29:12.000
Tony and any other trophy he can get his hands on. But he'll call up Fox and Friends on Tuesday to
00:29:17.300
announce a different motive behind his diplomacy. And that's getting into heaven. But I think,
00:29:23.700
and this is where, I'm sorry, this is where they had the 7,000 people line. If I can save 7,000 people
00:29:28.040
a week from getting killed, I want to try that and get into heaven if possible. Trump said,
00:29:32.600
I'm not doing well. I'm really at the bottom of the totem pole. But if I can get into heaven,
00:29:38.020
this will be one of the reasons. I love it. And then the person writing the article goes on to
00:29:43.540
say, for a second there, Trump sounded like an old school Catholic, which he very much is not,
00:29:47.400
having been raised a Presbyterian. And it's the first time I can remember this president musing
00:29:51.720
about the afterlife. I respect how Trump never pretended to be an evangelical, despite the tremendous
00:29:57.420
weight in GOP primaries, when he first ran for president. Who can forget when he said he'd never
00:30:03.500
in his life asked God for forgiveness? He's a sinner and a somewhat proud one. Trump's religious
00:30:09.020
foundation, such as it is, was largely formed under the guidance of Protestant preacher turned
00:30:13.600
self-help guru, Norman Vincent Peale, best known for the book, The Power of Positive Thinking.
00:30:18.960
Peale even officiated Trump's first wedding. But while Trump certainly took confidence-building
00:30:23.120
aspects of Peale's thinking seriously, one of Peale's most famous pearls of self-helpitude,
00:30:27.800
quote, make a true estimate of your ability, then raise it 10%, end quote. This president has never
00:30:33.560
appeared partial to the whole Jesus thing. I'm not naive enough to say that perhaps Trump
00:30:38.540
is changing or growing before our eyes. As of now, as far as I'm concerned, he's the same
00:30:44.740
venal jerk he's always been. Then again, perhaps this is a guy who, facing the end of his political
00:30:49.880
career in just a few short years, is reckoning a bit with his mortality and deepening ever so
00:30:56.300
slightly. And if he's motivated to end wars by the prospect of seeing those pearly gates on which he
00:31:02.420
presumably will install a gold mailbox, it's a good trade to me. Actually, that's actually a good
00:31:08.700
point. I wonder if in Trump's mind the pearly gates are gold and not pearl. I'm sure they are when
00:31:15.380
he pictures them. It's gold and the angel is at a gold podium. Well, actually, I think in so many
00:31:20.560
cartoons, they are just drawn as being gold. It's more visually appealing. Okay. Okay. Well,
00:31:26.560
I just Google image search pearly gates. Yeah. They often look pretty freaking gold. Yeah.
00:31:34.580
Do you think it has a, do you think it has a big T on it that opens up? Yeah. Just put his name on it.
00:31:40.420
Donald Trump. I would love that. Did they do a South Park about that? I feel like people would
00:31:48.420
absolutely freak out about the idea of like Trump buying heaven and like branding it all Trump
00:31:53.440
themed. And that sounds like a South Park episode to me. Well, in the first one of the new season,
00:31:58.360
they did, or second one, they went to heaven to get the Mexicans or whatever.
00:32:06.100
You're like shooting them all. To deport them all. Yeah. That was, that was great. Yeah. But yeah.
00:32:12.520
So this to me is a really interesting thing to think about. One, the people who were earlier,
00:32:20.920
you know, you can tell from this guy's writing, he's Trump skeptic, but he's like in this one area,
00:32:25.800
Trump seems to be fairly dedicated to, to win the battles he can win and to not attempt the battles
00:32:31.880
he can't win and to engage in areas where there's conflict, where even the U S isn't involved.
00:32:37.300
I do like, I do. And people can be like, well, are you suggesting that Trump was lying when he first
00:32:44.000
said he was a Christian and that it took a while for him to like, yeah, probably. I mean, if we know
00:32:52.160
that Trump has lied about things before, I don't think that there's like some Republican faction that
00:32:56.540
thinks that Trump is not a person who would lie to get a deal in his favor. Right. But I also think
00:33:03.720
that now so close to the end of his life, he is genuinely motivated both by the compassion he has
00:33:11.040
for other people, but by beginning to re-engage metaphysically while keeping in mind his metaphysical
00:33:17.880
roots. So what do you get here, Simone? So there's variation, but the most commonly cited by the,
00:33:25.140
the white house and the Trump administration are the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This is between
00:33:31.880
Armenia and Azerbaijan. He helped broker a peace agreement in August, 2025. So like actually just
00:33:37.540
now that ended decades of violence. There's a democratic Republic of Congo in Rwanda. So in June
00:33:45.400
of 2025, the DRC in Rwanda signed a peace agreement that was brokered at the white house. That one was
00:33:51.480
really bad. That one had a genocide as a component of it. Yeah. And the whole peace agreement was aimed
00:33:55.960
at ending the cross-border violence in a major humanitarian crisis. So that's, that's pretty
00:34:01.200
cool. I mean, I guess, you know, TBD, cause it was just June, how that goes. Then three is Serbia and
00:34:06.900
Kosovo. Trump claims credit for facilitating peace talks and normalization between Serbia and Kosovo,
00:34:12.520
which have been in conflict since the breakup of Yugoslavia. And then Egypt and Ethiopia,
00:34:19.000
the grand Ethiopian, Ethiopian Renaissance dam dispute, which I've never heard of.
00:34:25.080
Oh, I've read a lot on this. It's really bad. It was almost certainly going to, that's not going
00:34:29.140
to lead to a war now. There were tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, Ethiopia over the Nile dam,
00:34:34.200
which had raised the risk of armed escalation. Oh yeah. Yeah. Okay. So there's a dam on the,
00:34:39.460
on the Nile. Yeah. So it almost certainly would have caused a war. So Ethiopia is, is upstream of
00:34:47.200
Egypt on the Nile, right? Yeah. Yeah. Nile, big river, right? Big. If you put a dam in the Nile,
00:34:53.200
you can have most of the power needs of the entire country of Ethiopia met. But now Egypt loses fresh
00:35:00.220
water. Egypt's entire civilization is built on the Nile. If you, if you look at where people live in
00:35:06.540
Egypt, it's all right around the Nile and they don't even have enough fresh water as it is in
00:35:11.040
Egypt for their existing infrastructure needs. Yeah. So it's, it's an existential issue for both
00:35:18.540
countries for, you know, Ethiopia, it's free power for a huge chunk of their country for Egypt. It is
00:35:25.700
an end to their ability to live. You can see why both countries would go for it.
00:35:31.280
Okay. Yeah. I totally get that now that that is totally fair. And then India and Pakistan,
00:35:37.120
the white house includes Trump's diplomatic involvement to deescalate border tensions
00:35:41.580
between India and Pakistan, particularly over Kashmir. No formal peace treaty was signed,
00:35:46.300
but violence reportedly subsided after us led negotiations that was flaring up in May.
00:35:53.040
So no. And, and the countries have nominated him for a Nobel prize.
00:35:57.160
So sorry, it was Pakistan only, not India as well, because India has some weird thing about
00:36:03.560
foreign powers intervening in the, in the mediations. But anyway, Pakistan who nominated him for a peace
00:36:10.720
prize stating it was for his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership.
00:36:16.680
I can't remember if it was India or Pakistan, but I think Trump actually.
00:36:22.140
So yeah, he definitely from their perspective was the key player in ending the conflict. You know,
00:36:29.200
you don't do that if you don't think that he was the one who got this done. And that could have
00:36:33.720
been a nuclear war. That could have been an absolutely egregious war. But can you look at
00:36:40.720
the ones from the last administration of his? Cause those are all from this administration. I don't
00:36:45.060
want what the, what he, and also look at the context of them. But the other thing I wanted to note
00:36:49.660
here is the war end with the Ukraine. So a lot of people that look at me and they'll be like,
00:36:52.880
well, you don't just want to end a war. Like what about all the people who've died so far in the
00:36:55.760
war in the Ukraine? Like how dare he in this on Russia's terms, i.e. keeping the existing land.
00:37:01.600
And even in some areas, pushing back past the existing front lines. I actually think the deal
00:37:08.120
that he was trying to get from Russia of keeping the existing land and pushing past the front lines in
00:37:12.480
a few areas was an extremely good deal from the Ukrainian perspective, especially if Ukraine could
00:37:18.200
loop in UN membership to it. I don't think that they'd be able to get NATO membership,
00:37:22.640
but I think they could have gotten UN membership if they made the territorial concessions.
00:37:26.080
And people can say, Malcolm, Malcolm, Malcolm, how could you say that? And I'm like, bro,
00:37:29.620
Ukraine has a fertility rate of like 1.2. They're basically halving their population every
00:37:34.380
generation. Russia is at about the same level. Okay. In the new world order where populations of
00:37:42.360
productive individuals are falling rapidly, what matters is your population, not how much land you
00:37:49.500
have. And if you, you trade a population for, for dirt, people a hundred years from now are just
00:37:56.840
going to see it as crazy. They're going to be like, why did anyone ever do that? Why are they
00:38:00.580
worse trading human lives for soil? Right? Like as soon as you know that you're going to be losing,
00:38:07.760
you know, a thousand citizens a day or something like that, you know, keep in mind, these are,
00:38:12.920
these are fathers of people's kids and stuff like that. Right. You get to a point where you've just
00:38:17.140
got to be like, I guess that now we just have to say it sucks that this happened. And you can be like,
00:38:23.720
oh, you are, you are giving into a dictator. Right. And I always point out Russia is not in a position
00:38:29.840
now to do another war. Everyone's like, oh, next they'll attack, you know, Northern Europe or
00:38:34.700
something like that. I'm like the, they had this giant stockpile from the cold war of old musicians
00:38:44.360
and old planes and old truck missions. Yeah. He said musicians and it was just a stockpile of old
00:38:54.340
musicians that they shot at the Ukrainians. Yeah. So they have mimes as well. Mimes.
00:39:02.160
They sent their mimes and musicians to the Ukraine. No, but they had this giant stockpile. That is what
00:39:08.400
allowed them to fight the beginning of this war, but they have burned through that stockpile at this
00:39:15.140
point. And second, they also lost a lot of their fighting population. They just don't have like
00:39:23.180
no normal country would have fought to a level of depletion of their troops as Russia has.
00:39:29.360
The only reason they fought this far is because Ukraine's allies are basically keeping it from
00:39:33.580
invading Russia. And the way we know that is when there was, you know, turning against Putin and
00:39:39.820
then marching on Moscow, right? There was no forces to stop him. He was basically just able to march
00:39:45.440
straight to Moscow. It looked like it was very little pushback with only a fairly small contingent
00:39:51.520
of troops, which showed that Russia cannot defend itself right now if somebody went into Russian
00:39:56.840
territory. Well, I mean, though that didn't exactly. Well, it didn't exactly go the way he wanted it to,
00:40:02.780
but it was not because of Russia's ability to defend itself with its own troops. It was due to
00:40:07.680
sort of internal politics. So that was, that was not, not great for Russia. But yeah, the point I'm
00:40:13.540
making here is, and in addition to all of that, like not only do they not have the manpower or anything
00:40:18.500
like that, but this war, Putin went into it because all of his intelligence told him, this is going to
00:40:26.600
be really easy. You're going to be able to run and take the capital. Everyone's going to forget about it.
00:40:30.640
We've paid off all the politicians. Don't worry about it. We've paid off all the politicians. This is what
00:40:34.540
everything, even if all of Putin's intelligence services were telling him, don't worry, you could just
00:40:42.020
take Estonia. You can just take Finland. You don't need to worry about this at all. We've handled everything.
00:40:46.760
Europe's not going to react, which they're not telling him. I promise you, this is not what they're telling
00:40:51.400
him because this isn't true. But even if they did tell him that, do you think he's going to believe it this
00:40:57.240
time? Do you think he's going to risk a giant black eye like this again? No, he's not. Not for the rest
00:41:05.480
of his life is he going to risk this again. This idea that he's just going to be like, oh, I won that
00:41:11.060
one. Yay. Look at these, you know, minor territorial gains I made. What's going to happen is he's going to
00:41:16.460
be like, well, I better make sure I don't do that again because I am out of weapons and I am in a
00:41:22.900
dangerous position geopolitically because of my incredibly low fertility rates, which are lower than most
00:41:28.580
European countries. And keep in mind, they also had a giant brain drain as well because of the war, which
00:41:34.500
again puts them on the back foot economically when they switch out of a wartime economy. So I just don't see
00:41:39.980
that. And then people are like, what about the nukes? I point out to people that Russia hasn't successfully
00:41:46.260
tested one of its nukes since before I was born. Oh, since, you know, if, if their nukes are in any
00:41:53.780
condition, like the rest of their, they won't work incredibly hard to keep up. Yeah. Since, since 30,
00:41:59.840
30 years ago or more since, since anyone has tested that these nukes work, I, I can guarantee you,
00:42:06.020
they are terrified to attempt to use one of these nukes and you can say, oh, well, you know, at least
00:42:10.700
they try it. I was like, you know what? The fact that they haven't tested one recently to show the
00:42:15.580
world that they still work to me indicates that they know they don't. So I've, I've just not
00:42:21.280
worried at all there because if he wanted to do that, what he would do like, this is me. Okay.
00:42:25.240
I'm in Putin's shoes, right? I want to be able to use nukes to scare people and other politicians in
00:42:30.560
a war. What do I do? I go and I secretly test some to see if they work. And then if they work,
00:42:37.320
I announced that the test happened. Obviously it comes up on like seismographs and like public stuff
00:42:42.340
and everybody else knows they work, but I do this in secret and I would certainly try this.
00:42:46.240
I'd want to know if this stuff works. So my best guess is Putin actually has tested the nukes and
00:42:52.960
that they don't work. I don't see why he would leave this up to chance. That just seems illogical.
00:42:57.260
So my best guess is Putin has tested his nukes and he knows they don't work.
00:43:01.220
Now people would say you shouldn't roll the dice on something like that, but I'm like,
00:43:04.180
but there's not a lot of reason for Putin to escalate in that way because that would cause other
00:43:09.700
people to, to escalate was potentially attacking the homeland, even if they don't go in with nukes,
00:43:15.380
then that's very bad for him. Like you can say like, well, what if one in five of them works or
00:43:18.960
something like that? Still very dangerous for him to engage in that sort of, you know, doing a,
00:43:24.760
what's the word I'm looking for here? Coordinated like nuke, nuke strike.
00:43:29.740
And keep in mind, every part of the nuke has to work. The giant missile has to work.
00:43:33.420
The warhead has to work. It's so many things. When you, when you look at the fact that the jets
00:43:39.340
had, had been like internally stripped and all their parts had been sold so bad, I'm not so
00:43:44.880
worried about the nukes. But anyway, the point here being, if I actually think that from a morality
00:43:50.360
perspective, I know it sucks, but in terms of what you can realistically accomplish, because
00:43:55.800
why would Putin give up his territorial gains? Like, like, just think about it like a businessman
00:44:00.520
doing a deal. Why is Putin going to give those up? You can say because his people are dying.
00:44:05.140
Not exactly. He's in kind of a different position than the Ukraine in terms of people dying.
00:44:10.100
So Putin puts into his troops, people who are in prison systems, people who are of ethnic minorities.
00:44:17.800
He doesn't really put lots of productive ethnic Russians in his troops. When I say ethnic Russians,
00:44:25.060
I mean like of, of his sort of Slavic ethnic background. He is essentially trying to create
00:44:30.220
a eugenic genetic pressure through the, the, the war while also shoring up his ethnic group,
00:44:38.220
which is uniquely low fertility by exterminating other ethnic groups for him. It's kind of okay.
00:44:44.480
If the war keeps going on in the Ukraine, that's not the case in the Ukraine. It's like patriotic
00:44:49.400
Ukrainian, like programmers who are in the war. This was a very different scenario in terms of
00:44:55.500
how each side values the lives that are dying. And Simone recently asked me, well, how can,
00:45:01.600
how can, why isn't Zelensky taking the deal if it just ends the death? And I'm like two things.
00:45:07.620
He genuinely does believe Russia will attack again, which I think, you know, they did attack
00:45:12.360
Georgia again after the peace deal. So I understand that. And the U S did have a pact saying that they
00:45:18.020
would protect Ukraine when Ukraine gave up its nukes. So I can see why he doesn't believe us when we say
00:45:22.820
otherwise now, but I, what was I going to say here? I just think he's wrong in this assertion.
00:45:29.340
If he can get EU membership, I do not think that if he can get EU membership, people will see this
00:45:34.580
the same, or Putin would see attacking it the same. I mean, it would be a huge win economically for the
00:45:39.060
existing people who do survive within the Ukraine. The, the second reason I think he's doing it is
00:45:44.900
because he is really scared legacy wise about all of the people who sacrificed themselves sort of
00:45:53.120
having their lives, not matter in his eyes, but they saved all of Ukraine. You, you, Putin wanted
00:45:58.620
Kiev, Putin wanted the whole thing. Okay. So yeah, that's where we are with that. And I appreciate
00:46:04.820
what Trump is doing with this, by the way, wars ended in the first administration. Did you get any here?
00:46:09.100
Okay. Highlighted is Israel and the UAE, the Abraham Accords. That was the big one, August,
00:46:15.120
2020. Big one. Yeah. Yeah. And there was also Serbia and Kosovo. Trump administration
00:46:20.540
facilitated economic normalization agreements in September, 2020. I don't remember, but I mean,
00:46:26.680
it was 2020 who knows what was going on. Right. And also in February of 2020. So before the pandemic
00:46:31.680
really hit, there was a Taliban peace deal in Afghanistan where the Trump administration signed a
00:46:37.880
conditional peace agreement within the Taliban, setting a timeline for the withdrawal of U S troops
00:46:43.380
in Afghanistan. I mean, that didn't exactly play out. Yeah. And well, but they tried. So, I mean,
00:46:49.640
you know, well, it ended well, as long as Trump was in office. Yeah. Yeah. They were on their way.
00:46:54.820
There was, there was theoretically a path. And then Biden was like, yoink.
00:47:00.280
Just all right. Have a spectacular day, Simone. Does this change your view of Trump?
00:47:05.800
Totally. No, this, this explains it. It, it, it really, it humanizes him more. It gives him,
00:47:11.800
it makes him seem more moral and less like selfish and delusional. It's very interesting. So thank you
00:47:19.540
for digging deeper here. Cause who knew, right? I just thought the punchline was, you know, that great
00:47:25.400
exchange with Trump being asked when his favorite Bible passages were and him just being like, I don't,
00:47:30.400
that's highly personal. I don't talk about it. The one that says you're the best. If you believe
00:47:36.440
you're the best. Yeah. That one. Love you. Love you too. How about now?
00:48:06.440
All right. How am I coming through? Yes. I can hear you now. Good. That is absolutely wonderful.
00:48:12.860
Sorry for being late again to start this. I'm like, okay, everything's set. I'm all good to go.
00:48:17.640
Just going to quickly change Indy's diaper before her nap. But of course it's diarrhea. And of course
00:48:22.760
it's blowout. And of course the moment that I open up her diaper, she shoves her shirt down into it.
00:48:27.820
And then she takes her other hand and she grabs down into it. And I don't like, do I need to hog tie
00:48:33.340
her just to change her diaper now? Like what, what am I supposed to do? That's why. The cleanup, the.
00:48:40.620
She just loves tormenting you. All of her children do. Oh my gosh. Last night.
00:48:46.800
Does it float? I love that you heard that and you knew there was a major issue going on.
00:48:52.060
I spent the night telling Titan and Torsten, it's not okay to play with water unless these very
00:48:59.260
specific contexts are in place. Like it's okay to use the toilet and wash your hands and brush your
00:49:04.600
teeth and play with water toys at water time. We don't play with water in the house.
00:49:11.440
What's the first thing they do when they go to bed?
00:49:15.480
Go to the sink, fill up a bucket, bring it over the bed.
00:49:19.460
Oh my gosh. I love that you could hear them through the floor just a little.
00:49:24.380
Thank goodness our house is so old. You can just hear everything everywhere.
00:49:33.540
Yeah. No, it's, it's so funny how like videos that like the YouTube algorithm loves or hates,
00:49:39.880
it doesn't predict whether people will love it or hate it on X or on Substack or elsewhere.
00:49:46.260
I really don't know what to expect anymore. But yeah, I think a lot of people
00:49:51.440
pointed out that also like economic growth and prospects was a major factor in whether a country
00:50:03.900
had a baby boom. Like it wasn't just looking forward to a bright future because you could argue
00:50:10.120
that in Soviet countries, there was at least a lot of optimistic propaganda. So also apparently
00:50:20.260
Austria wasn't communist. So maybe I was right. The AI was wrong. I, I will dig into this more,
00:50:29.000
but hopefully I get sweet, sweet vindication. So we'll see. As for AI, there's this really big
00:50:34.540
bifurcation between people who like, just don't get it yet, or because they personally don't see it.
00:50:41.860
They just, regardless of us saying it's probably an issue of you just not personally seeing it.
00:50:47.680
Like they still refuse to believe that it's going to be disruptive. And then those who get it,
00:50:55.740
plenty of people say, well, yeah, but I still think that many large AI companies are in a bubble.
00:51:00.480
And I don't doubt that at all. And I don't think you doubt that either. They're, they're massively
00:51:04.480
overvalued, especially because you believe, and I think that you have very good reason to believe
00:51:08.520
this, that they're likely to become commoditized and undifferentiated in the end. So yeah, absolutely.
00:51:15.000
There's an AI company bubble, but that doesn't mean AI is overhyped and people just trying to like
00:51:22.120
lull themselves into this false sense of security that AI is not going to change everything very
00:51:27.940
fundamentally. This is silly. There are also some people who are like, well, AI hasn't changed that
00:51:32.660
much. I've only done like this, that, and the other thing with it. And they like proceed to talk
00:51:37.020
about how like huge flows in their life have changed, but they're like, but I could, I could
00:51:43.340
never use it to do this aspect of my work. And it's like, well, yeah, but you just rattled off like
00:51:48.960
five other things that you've completely outsourced to AI now. I don't know what to tell you,
00:51:54.780
but like AI is overhyped. I think people, they forget, it's like you, you normalize to a new luxury.
00:51:59.000
They forget how much they're using it. Oh yeah. Someone's comment also was like,
00:52:02.960
I mean, consider how life hasn't really changed that much since the nineties. And I'm like,
00:52:07.940
what are you talking about? Yeah. I mean, I'm hoping that was a joke.
00:52:12.940
There was some sarchasm between us. I hope that was sarchasm. Yeah. I hope so too, but we'll see.
00:52:18.880
The person who was like, AI is just a lossy algorithm. And you're like, okay, it's a lossy
00:52:24.200
algorithm speaking for a lossy algorithm, you know? Yeah. I'm sorry about that. Anyway,
00:52:33.460
Okay. So what happened, Torsten? Can you explain?
00:52:35.880
Well, I was blowing up for an inch with a lot of pieces then I just...
00:52:43.200
Octavian, did you make a mud moat around our house?
00:52:45.900
Yes, I did. And is that how we're going to be protected?
00:52:49.880
Yeah. And what happens when a bad guy gets in the mud moat?
00:52:54.400
Um, they were not like in the mud. And when he's distracted, he did the mud moat and get a shoot him like this.
00:53:06.580
Professor, what about you? What are you going to do when the bad guy gets in the mud moat?