Based Camp - What Happens to Africa Long Term？ The Pronatalist Perspective

00:00:00.000 in Africa, those conflicts are going to get worse in the short term. But I swear it all 0.95

00:00:05.480 hashes out a lot of the world's winners. I'd say probably half of the world's winning

00:00:11.440 cultural groups are probably going to come out of Africa just due to the sheer diversity of

00:00:15.600 the continent. In literally every context, a thing can be diverse. Yeah, I'm excited,

00:00:22.700 especially because the more people in different cultures in and from Africa we've encountered,

00:00:27.400 the more, oh my gosh, these are cultures that over time and with more and more technology are going

00:00:34.020 to react in really interesting ways. Would you like to know more? Hello. Hello, Simone. Today is

00:00:40.320 going to be a fascinating topic. It actually came up because I had a friend interviewing me and we

00:00:47.560 were talking about what the future of Africa is going to be in a pro-natalist world. What's the

00:00:54.280 end goal was Africa. What ends up happening was Africa. And it also reminded me of a conversation

00:00:59.360 we'd had with Edward Dutton when he was over at our house. He was asking, why is it that so many

00:01:06.040 people in the pro-natalist movement are Black and specifically African? The two groups that are most

00:01:11.440 disproportionately represented in the pro-natalist movement are the people from Jewish backgrounds,

00:01:15.740 sometimes now they're secular, and people from African backgrounds. And so the question was why?

00:01:19.840 And I actually, I don't feel like I had a really good question for it when he was asking me when he

00:01:23.880 was filming for this documentary thing, but I've been thinking a lot more about it. And I think I have

00:01:28.520 a better reason now. So at the time, my intuition was, is it was for the same reason as Jewish people 0.84

00:01:38.860 disproportionately being in the pro-natalist movement. However, I think that that's still true. 0.99

00:01:45.200 I was just pulling at the wrong threads. So specifically what I had thought that it was

00:01:51.740 group identity, like the idea of being like, I like my people. I have no shame in my people.

00:01:57.160 I want my people to exist in the future. And that was a big part of it. However, I actually think now

00:02:05.140 what it is familiarity was a mental framework of intergenerational tribalistic thinking where

00:02:14.740 people, where you recognize that different groups are different from you, but you plan to work

00:02:20.280 alongside them intergenerationally, a non-dominant way, like it, not in a way where you plan to

00:02:26.460 eventually convert them. And that is a type of thinking that sort of, I guess you could say our

00:02:33.080 entire movement is really heavily based around. And it's something that when you talk with Jewish 0.61

00:02:39.020 people, they're immediately familiar with it. Oh yes. I understand the concept of working alongside

00:02:42.720 people who are different from me without eventually trying to convert them and living in a multicultural

00:02:48.100 environment. And when you talk to people from Africa, because many of them have really strong

00:02:53.240 tribal identities, they really understand this as well. Oh yes, of course. I understand the idea

00:02:58.700 of my, my people might be different from this group's people, but we would still be able to

00:03:03.840 work together long into the future. But here's where it gets interesting. What actually ends up

00:03:09.200 happening with Africa as wokeism continues to spread? Because right now, as wokeism has spread 0.73

00:03:14.980 around the world, this sort of, we call it the mind virus, right? The super virus. It is a sterilizing

00:03:22.040 medic set, which is eventually going to destabilize many of these regions. But it requires regions often

00:03:28.280 to have a sufficient amount of wealth to easily spread among them and sufficient amount of like

00:03:34.440 social technology. And I think to an extent, China has been resistant and India has been resistant,

00:03:42.520 like South and East Asia have been resistant to it, but the cultures that they had alternative to it

00:03:50.520 seem to just do very poorly against technology and lead to some of the lowest birth rates in the

00:03:55.040 world, even lower than woke populations. Middle East, I think this is something that people might be 1.00

00:04:00.600 surprised about, but it's been uniquely susceptible to wokeism or not uniquely, but surprisingly

00:04:06.600 susceptible to wokeism. And the reason it's been surprisingly susceptible to wokeism is not because

00:04:13.300 wokeism penetrates the entire depth of the society, but because the society is very

00:04:20.520 hierarchical and the people at the top of that society try to ingratiate themselves or like

00:04:27.320 socially get along with, to some extent, Western friend groups that are of similar socioeconomic

00:04:32.600 levels. And as such, begin to adopt some woke ideas that then permeate down throughout society.

00:04:40.200 So a great example of this would be Iran's like devastatingly low birth rate, which was actually

00:04:45.960 created by a government program, which the Imam of Iran was convinced to undertake by like a group of

00:04:53.880 like population counts, like far lefty professors or something who were like hanging out there for a

00:04:59.480 period. Of course, they've long since realized it was a big mistake. And for the past 10 years,

00:05:03.800 they've been trying to get rid of it and trying to get their fertility rate up to very little effect. 0.66

00:05:08.840 But it shows how susceptible those areas have been. But I think Africa is going to be a completely 1.00

00:05:15.400 different game going into the future, both genetically and in terms of its susceptibility

00:05:20.600 to wokeism. So do you want to talk to this at all, Simone? Well, what makes me really interested

00:05:26.040 about this concept is that the original vision that one just assumes with Africa is that Africa is going

00:05:33.960 to every other developed nation so far, get more wealthy, and then become very susceptible to

00:05:41.800 wealth induced fertility collapse, and then just see the same kind of decline that we've seen in

00:05:46.520 other areas. But then, yeah, the more we've talked about this, the more it seems obvious that,

00:05:51.400 no, actually, culture in Africa is really different. It isn't. So I think what happens is people really

00:05:57.160 lose their culture, right, in the nations, especially where they've seen a collapse in fertility.

00:06:01.240 And you said that China has been somewhat resistant to this, but I really don't think so.

00:06:04.680 Their birth rate has collapsed. And while China is very- 0.69

00:06:07.080 But for different reasons, I argue.

00:06:09.240 Well, China has very thoughtfully tried to fight back against this. And I think you were alluding

00:06:13.560 to that. They're trying to make a culture of strong men and family orientation and just

00:06:19.000 generally strong-willed people. They've really failed to do so.

00:06:22.520 But let's talk about China's biggest weakness and I think why it's failing as hard as it is.

00:06:28.040 Is it homogeny, would you say?

00:06:29.240 It's homogeny, yeah.

00:06:30.440 Yeah, yeah. Whereas in Africa-

00:06:31.560 It didn't have multiple cultural hypotheses to tackle this. It's just, so there are different

00:06:37.640 ethnic groups within China, but when those ethnic groups begin to get really high fertility rates,

00:06:41.960 the Uyghurs had a really high fertility rate. The government sees it as a problem and will do 1.00

00:06:46.840 things about that.

00:06:47.640 Well, it's that. It's not just homogeny though. I think it's also, it's homogeny plus

00:06:54.280 lack of an ability to cling to culture. And that's why you'll see like in, in Israel, which is, 0.85

00:07:01.320 it is diverse, but religiously you could argue it's fairly homogenous. This is a pretty,

00:07:05.560 okay.

00:07:06.760 No, it's not homogenous at all.

00:07:07.880 It's not homogenous at all.

00:07:08.760 It's hard to argue that it's homogenous.

00:07:10.200 I think it's really bad. So Israel has been resistant in part due to its heterogeneity.

00:07:14.040 Now, typically most Jewish groups maintain a high fertility rate. They're not like pseudo-Jewish 1.00

00:07:19.400 groups like reformed Jews, but most of the like more conservative Jewish groups do a very good 0.71

00:07:24.040 job of keeping their fertility rate high, even when they become secular. But there is a huge

00:07:28.440 diversity among these groups, more so than other religious traditions.

00:07:32.440 So it's diversity and strength of culture, because I think the other thing is you have the United

00:07:36.840 States too, but the United States has diversity, but it is still in the middle.

00:07:41.240 Well, and the United States has a much higher fertility rate than most developed countries.

00:07:44.760 It does, but I think it's still in the middle of a controlled collapse.

00:07:47.560 Let's take a step here and talk about why Africa is going to matter so much in the future.

00:07:51.480 And I think a lot of people today, they, they, they, they are scoffing at Africa because they see

00:07:56.120 the Africa of today instead of the Africa of tomorrow. So there's three core things to know here.

00:08:02.280 One, the African population is going to be one much bigger in the future. It is continuing to 1.00

00:08:09.160 grow really rapidly at the same time as all of the other world's populations are collapsing.

00:08:15.400 So just in terms of number of people, it's going to be more relevant in the future.

00:08:20.840 Two, they still have, so here I'm going to use the word eugenic and dysgenic, not in the way that we 0.90

00:08:26.440 would normally use it where eugenic is like a scientist who's trying to make the world better.

00:08:30.200 But we're just talking about like positive selective pressure on a group's genetics.

00:08:34.840 When we talk about the world's IQ dropping by about one standard deviation over the next 75 years,

00:08:42.440 that statistic is specifically only relevant to developed countries.

00:08:46.520 It is not, we're not seeing those selective pressures in developing countries.

00:08:51.880 Uh, specifically when I say developing countries here, I don't mean like South America where they've

00:08:58.040 already fallen below reproductive rate when South America, Central America, and the Caribbean combined.

00:09:02.440 But I'm talking about the specific regions that are in extreme desperate poverty

00:09:07.080 and that still have really high population wide fertility rates, which means even if you do believe

00:09:13.800 in inter-group IQ differences, you're, you then are one of the people who says, okay, well, humanity has,

00:09:20.680 uh, uh, humanity's IQ is genetically linked.

00:09:23.960 I can see that being selected against the mainstream populations.

00:09:26.440 And what that means is in a hundred years, you're going to have a lot of really comparative to

00:09:33.080 developed countries, populations, really smart people in Africa.

00:09:37.000 Now they might not be compared to modern day populations, but you're going to have a lot more Africans.

00:09:43.000 They are going to be proportionally smarter than other population groups due to genetic pressures.

00:09:48.680 And they are more diverse.

00:09:50.840 And I think that the more diverse thing, I'm going to put up a graph of how different populations

00:09:55.160 relate to each other, genetically speaking, because I think something that people really miss

00:10:00.280 is just how culturally and genetically diverse Africa is.

00:10:04.600 It is, if you're looking at somebody in one African country against somebody in a nearby African country, 0.60

00:10:11.080 those two people will often be more genetically distant from each other than I, someone of a pretty,

00:10:16.600 well, a totally purely European ancestry would be to a native American, like the most distant

00:10:22.600 cultural group that is not African or one of those weird Islander cultural groups that came out of a 1.00

00:10:29.640 different migration.

00:10:30.600 Like the Polynesian islands?

00:10:31.960 Yeah. Like the Polynesians, they're actually pretty different.

00:10:33.960 Well, and I think that's, it's not just the genetic difference either.

00:10:37.160 It's the cultural difference.

00:10:38.360 Even after South Africa finished apartheid, like there was severe conflict in between different

00:10:44.520 like groups that had different backgrounds.

00:10:47.320 Absolutely. But I think that people really sleep on this. Like when they,

00:10:50.280 the people who are like the gene head kids or something like that, like they know it,

00:10:53.880 like they're like intuitively aware that this is a true thing. They just don't really think

00:10:58.360 through the implications of, and this is similar to if you talk about the African genetic variant,

00:11:05.560 right? That's a bit like me in the U S talking about like the British accent. So if you've ever

00:11:11.400 actually been to the UK, what you would know is that there is far more diversity in accents than

00:11:17.480 there is in the U S you walk down the street and you'll have a different accent. And the reason for

00:11:22.360 that is simply because the language evolved there at the same way the species evolved in Africa and had

00:11:28.520 more time to differentiate within that region into really distinct accents. And so you had the same

00:11:36.520 thing in Africa, which is I am much closer to any Asian than most Africans are to a person, one country,

00:11:44.120 one country away from them. And the, you should really, if you're thinking about the world's sort

00:11:48.600 of genetics and you were dividing it into different, like genetically meaningful ethnic groups, Europeans,

00:11:55.960 Asians, and native Americans would be part of the same group. And then there'd be like 30 groups in

00:12:00.760 Africa. And then the one that we mentioned earlier was like the, not the Polynesians. I'm thinking

00:12:04.760 like the Australian aboriginals and then the, the people in the North of Japan. And then there's

00:12:10.120 a few other groups that are also pretty different, but this is meaningful. If it turns out that some

00:12:16.680 something in a person's genetics is what gives them a sociological profile that is resistant to

00:12:24.040 prosperity and technology induced fertility collapse. It is also relevant as Simone mentioned culturally,

00:12:30.840 but it's also relevant. And then the other thing that really matters about Africa is

00:12:34.440 the mindset of Africans. So the way that the wokes have done a very good job within countries is, 0.99

00:12:42.120 especially Europe, America, South America, and stuff like that is when they go into a country,

00:12:46.280 they say your differences, you, one, you, the groups within your country, aren't really different.

00:12:52.360 And through recognizing that we can remove the pain of all of your emotional group of all of the

00:12:58.840 intergroup turmoil, everything like that. And you guys can finally live in this, the gray bland shirt

00:13:05.400 utopia, right? Where everyone's basically the same. The genders aren't really different. Ethnicities

00:13:10.520 aren't really different. Cultures aren't really different. You all are the same. And through

00:13:14.520 recognizing and embracing that you will be able to work together better into the future. I think that

00:13:20.440 just falls flat in Africa for two reasons. The first reason is one, you don't have the emotional 0.96

00:13:27.720 hooks. You can't as easily say, and where you could say this. So there were places like South

00:13:33.000 Africa where you were able to go in and say, Hey, the whites are now the dominant group in this region. 0.99

00:13:40.040 They achieved that through ill gotten means, but you should give it all back. You should act equally and

00:13:45.560 everything like that. And everything will work out. Right? So they, there were a few places in Africa

00:13:49.800 where there were still like really dominant, politically dominant white groups, like in

00:13:53.320 apartheid South Africa, that claim no longer works. And you can't easily go to like a Zulu president 1.00

00:14:00.040 and say that that's just not going to have any effect. They're going to be like, fuck off. I don't 1.00

00:14:03.000 care. And you also can't say that you're all really actually the same, that they would see that as

00:14:07.640 preposterous. They'd be like, no, I'm Igbo. He's not that we are not the same. What are you talking about?

00:14:13.960 And then the final thing, and this is something that the, the, the, the wokes, 0.99

00:14:18.120 I think don't want to hear is everywhere that sort of wokeism has tried to be implemented in Africa, 0.98

00:14:24.120 like where they have convinced a group that has one power to give up that power has then collapsed.

00:14:32.040 I don't want to go into specifics here, but I'm sure anybody who's, who's actually following

00:14:35.880 situations in Africa will know what I'm talking about. Yeah. I think there are plenty of prominent

00:14:38.760 examples of, um, nations that have fallen into either steep or gradual decline that people can

00:14:44.360 see. But to your point, that actually means that the Africa of the future is going to be dominated

00:14:49.800 by much stronger nations and arguably by much, much stronger cultures. And like you say,

00:14:56.120 I think the future is what wokeism trying to move into Africa looks like. What does a prosperous 0.98

00:15:02.440 Africa actually look like? What does the future of Africa actually look like?

00:15:05.640 So one, I think one, one thing that's important to remember is I don't know if one, the cultural

00:15:12.680 and genetic diversity in Africa is part of why I don't think we'll ever get a totally prosperous 1.00

00:15:17.160 Africa. I think you will get regions that are prosperous because you have so much cultural

00:15:21.320 diversity. Okay. So you're essentially saying like some groups allow to compete.

00:15:25.560 No, I'm saying some groups will be persistently resistant to prosperity. So what you're imagining is

00:15:31.080 a group economically out competing than having a lot of kids and replacing their neighbors.

00:15:35.640 I think that it'll be a long time before that happens. So one, I expect Africa to be much more 1.00

00:15:41.320 patchworky as it begins to become wealthy than other countries in part due to its intrinsic diversity.

00:15:47.240 The second thing that I would expect with Africa is these groups to have much more animosity. 1.00

00:15:52.120 You can think of it more similar to like old European city states as they begin to gain wealth and power

00:15:58.760 and be much more on a tribal level. Then I expect wokeism to penetrate some groups, some cultural

00:16:04.280 groups in Africa. I expect to just be completely pierced by wokeism and they, as they get wealthy, 1.00

00:16:09.720 as they get successful and they will like a wet balloon filter out and disappear. Like all woke

00:16:15.160 infected groups do. Then other groups will maintain their fertility rate in the same way that many

00:16:21.400 groups in the West have maintained their fertility rate, which is through disengagement with technological

00:16:26.280 innovation. These groups will likely stay economically poorer than other groups, but still, I think do

00:16:33.160 depending, there will be a scale as to how wealthy these groups become, but some of them will do well.

00:16:39.240 Some of them will do poorly, but none of them will really outcompete like a middling engagement

00:16:43.960 because your economic possibilities are intrinsically limited when you disengage with technology.

00:16:52.200 Your economic possibilities are limited when you disengage with technology. The final groups, which are

00:16:57.480 the ones I'm really interested in, which are the groups that I think are actually going to lean hard

00:17:03.960 into technology. So these are groups that are going to one use polygenic selection. They may even use more

00:17:11.560 technology than that, because the actual tools behind this technology are much more usable than

00:17:16.520 one would think. So there's already examples of this. So if anyone is familiar with the transhumanist

00:17:21.640 Mormon group, so I'll talk a bit about them because they started in the US. So they were started as a

00:17:26.760 predominantly white group in the US, but they were just like a bunch of, let's be honest, like college

00:17:30.920 nerds. I don't think that they were ever that big of a movement, but their interpretation of Mormonism,

00:17:35.640 and this is accurate to an extent. So Joseph Smith, when he was writing the original books of Mormon,

00:17:40.520 he was really heavily influenced by sci-fi of the time and fantasy of the time. If you look at the

00:17:45.480 books that the Book of Mormon is most similar to, there's some great, if you want to like, I'm really

00:17:49.960 into like origins of religions and studying them. Very interesting. So you could almost see the origins of

00:17:55.880 Mormonism as combining Christianity with frontierism, technophilia, and sci-fi of the time.

00:18:04.120 Now, not modern sci-fi, but sci-fi of the time. And that is where Mormonism came from. And then they're 1.00

00:18:10.280 saying, if you take this mindset and you bring it into the present and you say, actually the promises

00:18:16.600 of Mormonism were all true, humanity really will eventually be a godlike entity, really will rule

00:18:23.160 multiple different planets that they will have responsibility to go to and seed and build new races 0.93

00:18:28.520 on and not races in like a racial context, whole new species that they will curate and that 0.93

00:18:33.960 our planet may actually have a god from a previous one of these outward things.

00:18:38.360 They give true, as they say.

00:18:40.120 It was like a weird thing in the US. So they had some people go to Africa and preach this.

00:18:45.000 Turns out it exploded. And the guy who I was talking to in it was,

00:18:48.600 yeah, they've got 30,000 members or something already. This is in Guinea, I think. So,

00:18:53.480 so it's really exploding, but he's also, he was a little worried about introducing me to them.

00:18:57.400 So I haven't met this group yet. Cause he's, they're actually like a lot more conservative

00:19:01.720 than your average American Mormon. Like he was a guy who was really like worried that we did like

00:19:06.520 the, we don't care that Kevin Dolan, who's like a super guy is writing the Navalist conference.

00:19:10.760 And we get along with him. Uh, we get along with like really canceled people. And he's like,

00:19:14.920 well, I guess if you get along with him, you might be able to deal with these people.

00:19:17.800 So basically what he's saying is they are both incredibly technophilic, but so conservative that

00:19:24.600 he's squished out by it. And I'm like, oh, that's my type of people. I think that's a successful group.

00:19:30.280 And so I think we're going to see more groups like this in Africa. And I think what people are

00:19:36.360 missing is how quickly a group can split out from the mainstream population. Once it begins to,

00:19:43.400 at a wide scale engage with genetic selection technology in terms of positive physical

00:19:49.400 characteristics and IQ. So if you're doing, for example, polygenic IQ selection, uh, within three

00:19:55.160 generations, I haven't ran all the math yet, but my intuition is you're probably looking at about

00:20:01.320 a 2.5 X increase in, in, in IQ standard deviations, which, and then this is going to

00:20:10.680 and continue to snowball into the future. Now, of course these groups will start small,

00:20:15.480 but once they are able to start mass producing people with things like artificial wombs and stuff

00:20:20.600 like that, then they can begin to geographically outcompete their neighbors, which I think you

00:20:25.560 were talking about. However, I think that after the world undergoes the first population collapse,

00:20:31.880 the idea of geographically outcompeting your neighbors will be seen as old school.

00:20:36.680 So live in Shram will be seen as not an important thing anymore. If I can explain this differently,

00:20:43.640 if you have a technophilic group, which is exploding in population, historically,

00:20:47.880 what you would want to do is displace your neighbors, put your people on their land and grow that way. 1.00

00:20:52.520 However, if these groups are really high IQ and really technophilic, they'll probably be culturally

00:20:59.800 prepping for space travel essentially, which means, because that would be the obvious long-term,

00:21:05.640 I think we are on a sinking ship on this earth. They can say, well, I love it. People are like,

00:21:11.080 oh, and like rats, you want to scurry off of it? Like, why don't you fix the mother Gaia? And I'm

00:21:15.800 like, okay, you guys can be given the mast a hug and whatever while the ship goes down. I'm just being

00:21:22.680 realistic. Well, but hold on. So you're saying this, but earlier you were saying that you expected there

00:21:27.320 to be a lot of like international conflict within the continent of Africa. So I do. Yeah. The

00:21:35.880 when groups get, well, actually, I don't know. What do you think? Do you think there will be more

00:21:39.560 conflict? I guess what I've said is there's much more comfort with the idea of conflict that I've

00:21:45.160 seen was in my African friends. They're not as pussified as the West, I guess I'd say, 0.89

00:21:51.480 but I also think that war is a bad thing. And that may, I don't know. What do you think is

00:21:55.400 going to happen? I think that there will be conflict. I just, in general, I feel like

00:22:01.800 we can expect that it's easier to count on that than to not count on that. And I do get this

00:22:06.680 impression that there's more of a, like a tolerance for intergroup conflict than in Africa, than there

00:22:12.040 has been in other regions recently. But at the same time, I'm not really sure. This sounds terrible.

00:22:18.600 I mean, I would definitely say that our experience traveling in Africa totally changed the way that

00:22:24.920 we looked at the whole continent, right? Yeah. So we went to Johannesburg and we went traveling

00:22:29.320 in the various townships, you know, meeting, meeting with the local authorities in, in various

00:22:34.600 of the, of the poorer townships. And it was really eyeopening for us in terms of how bad things were

00:22:41.560 and getting to interview the people actually living in these communities and getting their perspectives.

00:22:46.520 Yeah, it was, it was sobering. It was sobering driving around and hearing about how like

00:22:53.560 property rights were managed. But also like how, in theory, that should mean that anyone could be

00:22:59.800 able to get a house. But in practice, that meant that people, there was like a huge housing crisis.

00:23:05.320 So yeah, I mean, of course, we've learned a lot more since being there in person, but being there

00:23:10.120 in person was insanely sobering. But what I do keep thinking about as you describe all this is I'm like,

00:23:17.560 wow. So like the Black Panther series is basically just the future. Europe's going to shit. The United 0.72

00:23:23.560 States, I don't know, it's a wild card. Like Asia just appears to be evaporating, like rapturing. 0.98

00:23:29.960 And then over here, like over time, you've got Africa just like slowly developing, slowly thriving,

00:23:37.640 in most ways, quite resilient in the face of sterilizing.

00:23:40.760 No, not resilient. A lot of Africa is going to continue to circle the drain. 1.00

00:23:44.620 Okay.

00:23:44.880 That's the very point I'm making. I think people are, one, underestimating the depths and severity

00:23:50.680 of poverty that some areas in Africa are going to face, even some classically developed areas.

00:23:55.000 For example, I think South Africa is going to completely collapse.

00:23:57.640 Oh, definitely. It's not going in a good direction.

00:24:01.240 No, but what I'm saying people are underestimating is everywhere is collapsing to an extent right now.

00:24:07.400 Sure.

00:24:07.960 There is more diversity of cultural groups for a resistant group to spring up from

00:24:15.800 in these collapsed areas. So I think most African countries right now are going to collapse from

00:24:22.600 their current state into an even worse state. But I think if you're looking at a fertile soil for

00:24:29.800 something to then spring up from, I also think that the sheer diversity of cultural groups within

00:24:36.040 these countries, their resistance to wokeism, the fact that they don't have strong dysgenic selective

00:24:41.240 pressures on them. And that they are, I think just mindset wise, much more okay with this idea of

00:24:52.280 we are a cultural group. Like they see the world in terms of cultural groups, which are different

00:24:57.240 from each other and interact with each other. And that's the mindset that people need going into the

00:25:02.200 future. And that those cultural groups can exist within a country or transnationally.

00:25:07.720 So I think historically the successful mindset was the nationalist mindset, which is to say one

00:25:13.880 country, one people. And I think that that really worked. And I think that that is not going to be

00:25:20.520 the mindset that is successful in the future. It's my cultural group comes first, but I can build

00:25:27.240 intergenerational alliances with other cultural groups. And when you look at all of these things

00:25:33.560 together, even if you do believe in genetic population differences between groups, I think

00:25:41.160 that saying things that would cause African groups to build animosity to your group is probably not or

00:25:48.440 not be able to build intergenerational alliances. Your group is a really bad intergenerational tactical

00:25:55.320 decision for anyone to be making.

00:25:57.160 So then why are so many people who are also commonly associated with pro natalists very commonly

00:26:03.720 racist against black people and or, but usually and also anti-semitical? What's going on here?

00:26:12.440 So what are they jelly?

00:26:14.120 That's not, yeah. So, so this is the entry. That might also be why there's so many Jewish background and

00:26:19.640 black background pro natalists is our movement is the non-anti-semitic, non-racist against black

00:26:24.440 iteration within. Oh, so we're just like disproportionately seeing. No, but I think that

00:26:28.520 there's two things going on here. So first we need to remember that when we're talking about Africa,

00:26:33.320 it's very different and we could probably do a different episode on the American black population,

00:26:37.960 which is just culturally very different from the African population. I actually think that the,

00:26:41.960 like when I think about my African friends, they're much closer culturally to my Indian friends

00:26:46.520 than they are to my American black friends. 0.55

00:26:48.440 Would you say that? Or would you say they're just so totally different? You can't even.

00:26:56.360 Yeah. They're just super different. They have some things in common. Like many of my African

00:27:02.120 friends are super like Catholic, for example, but there's all this other cultural background. I

00:27:06.520 don't know. Yeah. I just see them as unique and really culturally robust and strong. And

00:27:11.000 Wait, what was the question? Oh yeah. So where's the anti-semitic? So

00:27:13.480 the anti-black stuff I think is coming from people who are just looking at interpopulation statistics

00:27:21.000 and interpopulation differences. And they feel like they have found a piece of forbidden knowledge.

00:27:26.360 And then they begin to build like their identity around this forbidden knowledge because they're just

00:27:32.040 so excited about it, but they don't think five steps into the future of once people can have access

00:27:38.200 to genetic technology about declining IQ rates in the West and stuff like that. They're just not thinking into

00:27:43.000 the future about all the implications of this forbidden knowledge that they've grasped to.

00:27:47.800 Then there's the second thing, which I think is really true. And I think that this is to some

00:27:51.480 extent elucidated by the anti-semitic sentiments, which really remind me of BLM sentiments and stuff

00:27:57.400 like that. And the worst of woke-ism, which is if white people are economically out-competing

00:28:02.520 black people, it must be because they're cheating in some way. They can't possibly be like 1.00

00:28:07.320 a cultural difference. And it's the same thing with these white supremacist groups,

00:28:11.000 right? Which I think do play with genetic language sometimes where they're like, well,

00:28:15.160 if Jews are out-competing me, it must be because they're cheating. It can't possibly be any sort of

00:28:21.400 cultural child rearing techniques or anything like that, or God forbid genetic differences.

00:28:26.440 And so I think that a lot of it, wouldn't that build animosity? If it is, it's the same reason that

00:28:33.160 it was in the US population. I think a lot of black people are like, yeah, let's work to improve

00:28:39.800 things that are going on within our larger cultural group. I see problems here and here

00:28:45.480 that are causing within our culture, black on black violence that are causing problems in our 1.00

00:28:50.200 communities. And I think we can fix that. And then there's another group, which is just going to be

00:28:53.960 like, no, if bad things are happening to us, it must be because other people are cheating.

00:28:58.040 And I think that to some extent, that's really where a lot of anti-semitism in these white groups comes

00:29:02.840 from. Okay. So it's not sour grapes just because those two groups appear to be more culturally

00:29:08.120 cohesive and likely to inherit the future. No, I do not. I genuinely do not think that

00:29:13.000 they are aware. So what they're looking at, like their worldview of Africa is they're looking at things

00:29:18.520 like what's happening in South Africa, which is genuinely terrible and catastrophic and really sad.

00:29:23.960 And the truth is, is we can't even fully talk about it because if you mentioned some things like 0.94

00:29:29.240 farmers are being attacked or something like that, you're seen as like a crazy white supremacist when 0.95

00:29:35.720 it's just, I'd encourage people. Well, I think people, at least let me say this with South Africa, 0.90

00:29:40.360 people are really missing the beat. Like they immediately, you can't talk about the collapse

00:29:45.320 of South Africa without being racist, but I think they're totally missing the beat. And this is why

00:29:50.040 I so admire that you wrote a book on governance. The problem with South Africa is bad governance.

00:29:55.800 This was a bunch of very inept, corrupt people who have really bad adverse incentives, who were 0.99

00:30:02.280 trained by Soviets before all this happened. There are so many governing reasons why this was all 0.97

00:30:07.800 like it was written in this. Yes. A lot of people, when the post-apartheid government came in,

00:30:12.760 like a Soviet training force went in and they were really buddy-buddy and they were training them

00:30:17.560 how to translate their state into a communist state. But because of sort of the tribal identity and tribal

00:30:24.440 conflicts, it worked even worse than it did in Russia. Well, and there were all these, yeah,

00:30:28.360 they were, yeah, they were inter-tribal. But we can't go too deep into this because I really think-

00:30:30.920 What I'm saying is like the problem is that I think people are making this a racial thing,

00:30:36.440 when in most cases, it's a governing thing. It's an incentives thing. It was the wrong people

00:30:41.640 corrupting the wrong people and the wrong people getting power. So if you want to read on this,

00:30:46.600 there's a really, what was the thing that you read? It was a book review that you were like,

00:30:50.040 this is just really solid. I'll post a picture of it on YouTube.

00:30:54.440 Right. I think the best thing to read, if you want like a very quick snapshot of what went wrong

00:31:02.280 in South Africa and why it went wrong, I recommend a book review written by a couple on Substack. It's

00:31:08.280 called Review, South Africa's Brave New World by RW Johnson. So it's a book review of a history. And it

00:31:14.360 was a history written by a formerly very pro end of apartheid activist who grew up in Africa around

00:31:21.960 the sixties and then saw what happened to South Africa. And I think that's, yeah, we're not the 0.51

00:31:27.000 authorities on this. And what's really cool about this review is I think it shows you

00:31:30.840 how long it's been hidden from the general public, how bad things have gotten in South Africa. I think

00:31:36.840 some people have this perception that wokeism and this sort of-

00:31:40.760 Really the wool being pulled over our eyes.

00:31:42.440 We began to really pull the wool over people's eyes systemically in like the past 10 years.

00:31:47.880 And before that broadly, we knew what was going on in the world.

00:31:51.320 Yeah, not even.

00:31:52.200 Anyone from my generation who reads this will understand that Africa and people with like

00:31:58.120 knowledge of things knew that South Africa had fundamentally failed and was on its path to

00:32:03.880 becoming a failed state, but we're not allowed to talk about it. And so the general public believed

00:32:09.720 that everything was hunky dory, yet all of the writing was on the wall, that it was circling

00:32:14.040 the drain and that really bad things were going to begin to happen. And it's really sad that we

00:32:18.760 can't talk about what's actually going on in the world. But yeah, this is really interesting stuff.

00:32:24.760 And I think, but again, and I really need to emphasize this, the future of Africa is small 0.98

00:32:30.280 cultural groups that do really well. The vast majority of Africa, I actually think will be

00:32:35.960 worse off in the future than it is today, specifically because as globalism begins to

00:32:41.240 fall apart and as international charity begins to fall apart. I think a lot of cultural groups

00:32:46.200 that it's of course, you're going to have cultural evolutionary pressures to begin to rely on those

00:32:50.040 things who had begun to are going to are in for enormous hurt. And as the world's eye begins to

00:32:57.000 move away from policing inter-group conflicts in Africa, those conflicts are going to get worse in the

00:33:03.800 short term. But where it all hashes out, a lot of the world's winners, I'd say probably half of the

00:33:11.400 world's winning cultural groups are probably going to come out of Africa, just due to the 1.00

00:33:15.640 sheer diversity of the continent. In literally every context, a thing can be diverse.

00:33:22.200 Yeah, I'm excited. Especially because the more people in different cultures in and from Africa we've

00:33:27.720 encountered, the more, oh my gosh, this is, this is going to, these are cultures that over time and

00:33:33.160 with more and more technology are going to react in really interesting ways. So I'm excited. I'm

00:33:37.880 excited for the future. Yeah. Well, and here's one thing I'd really like to put a point on because

00:33:42.360 this is actually something I've seen. So I've seen, you were talking about some people who are like

00:33:47.160 into like genetics, but anti-anti-black. And these people seem like aware that IQ could be

00:33:55.640 partially heredible or IQ is partially heredible, but they then refuse to engage with the fact

00:34:04.040 of how quickly a group would change an IQ if they begin to genetically select their offspring.

00:34:10.760 They're like aware of one thing, but they do not want to engage in genetic selection themselves.

00:34:16.120 So they blind themselves to the effects of genetic selection.

00:34:20.120 Yeah, they usually act like your traits can only be what they are now or get worse.

00:34:25.720 Is that assumption they make?

00:34:27.640 Yeah. Well, and they have this weird assumption that through genetic sort of purity or going back

00:34:34.600 to the way things used to be. So we've probably had dysgenic selective pressures on IQ in, in the

00:34:40.120 Western world for a while. Like our ancestors were almost certainly smarter than us. The Flynn effect

00:34:45.480 was hiding that. I'm talking genetically speaking due to like poor nutrition, due to like lead in the

00:34:50.040 atmosphere and stuff like that. Yeah. And so they are right that if you went back a generation, if I took

00:34:57.000 a clone of somebody from two to three generations ago, they'd probably be smarter than people in our

00:35:01.000 generation. This is people of a European background, but what they're wrong is that isn't the only, there is 1.00

00:35:07.720 no way to do that other than just have kids that are like clones of your ancestors. But what you can do

00:35:13.480 is move forwards using genetic technology to, to improve your cultural group. And that technology

00:35:22.840 is accessible to anyone who's willing to use it. And I think that the reason they blind themselves

00:35:27.720 to this is many of them are part of cultural traditions that have been able to keep birth rate

00:35:32.680 high by being technophobic. And so they are just like intrinsically against the idea of, well, I love one of

00:35:39.320 them, the federalists wrote a piece on us and they were like, this sick family plays a game with their

00:35:44.920 children. We're only the strongest get to survive. And I was like, one, that's what sperm do. So that's

00:35:50.760 happening every time you have sex, a sick game where only your genetically strongest descendants get to 0.98

00:35:55.480 survive. But two, so what, even if we are engaging in that inter-generationally, how can you compete?

00:36:02.840 But Simone's like, don't say that, Malco. You don't want me to say that? 1.00

00:36:07.960 No, it's fine.

00:36:09.000 It's Sparta. Gotta do it. Other ways of relating to kids. No, but the point being is that I suspect

00:36:18.440 that given the cultural diversity was in Africa, you're going to see many more that are open to

00:36:22.760 ideas like this than the much more homogenous cultural traditions, which exist in the Western world.

00:36:28.200 Well, what I like is that basically, not basically, literally, humanity started in Africa and humanity

00:36:38.200 may jump to other planets from Africa. And all these other like offshoots are like struggling, 0.98

00:36:45.240 flailing around and maybe not getting anywhere, but they're playing the long game.

00:36:50.360 Well, they're not playing the long game. They just lucked into this position due to history.

00:36:54.840 And most people in Africa that exist in Africa today, remember I'm saying their strengths is

00:37:00.200 the cultural diversity, which means I think 95% of cultural groups in Africa are going to do poorly. 0.82

00:37:05.640 Well, I think that's the brutal thing that we love about diversity though, right? Is that we love it 1.00

00:37:09.640 when there's a very large market in which different enterprises compete, because it means that only

00:37:15.320 the very, very best will win. That does lead to a world that is highly unequal, but that's also like

00:37:20.360 how biology works. Well, and then hopefully the world can reach a level of prosperity where the

00:37:27.400 inequality is irrelevant. That's the idea of capitalism, right? We do that. You eventually reach

00:37:32.200 a level of prosperity where even relatively poor people are living better than middle income people

00:37:37.800 in like a communist country. Yeah. Oh, sorry. Well, I love you, Simone. This has been a fascinating

00:37:44.440 conversation and very different than most of the ones you're going to hear in this space, I think.

00:37:49.880 Yeah, definitely. I don't hear anyone, at least in the circles that we follow, talking much about

00:37:56.440 Africa at all, if they're not like paternalistically talking about how they're going to quote unquote,

00:38:01.720 save people there from disease. So that's depressing. I think they're looking at-

00:38:06.920 Which in our worldview is largely pointless.

00:38:08.920 Yeah. So, and well, I respect the view, but I also love looking at the long-term

00:38:13.880 and the upside. So this was fun. I love you a lot, Malcolm. Thank you.

Based Camp - September 21, 2023

What Happens to Africa Long Term？ The Pronatalist Perspective

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