Based Camp - Why Fertility is Collapsing： Shocking Stats with @MoreBirths

00:00:00.000 This is one thing that's really wonderful about my feed

00:00:02.200 is that you can search at more births for whatever topic

00:00:05.640 and there's a good chance that I will have written about it.

00:00:08.260 No, you are the kind of the reference point encyclopedia.

00:00:11.260 If you need-

00:00:11.760 I really want to-

00:00:13.240 40, oh, this is fascinating.

00:00:14.760 Yeah, 48% of homeschooling households

00:00:16.820 have three or more children.

00:00:19.560 Keep in mind this like 24% happier rating.

00:00:22.340 This is including the terrible marriages.

00:00:25.420 Oh yeah, and good marriages are like off the charts,

00:00:28.480 like double happiness ratings.

00:00:31.200 Oh yeah, oh yeah.

00:00:32.220 Like the gap is just so incredible

00:00:34.180 that it's almost ridiculous

00:00:35.360 that people aren't like knocking down the doors eager for this.

00:00:38.520 And one interesting point is that those guys that got divorced

00:00:42.580 are the ones that are lining up first to get remarried.

00:00:47.080 They're not upset that they were married.

00:00:48.960 They're just upset that it ended

00:00:50.000 and they want to get back into a marriage.

00:00:52.060 Because if you look at the remarriage rate,

00:00:53.780 it's actually very high.

00:00:54.740 In the United States in the current year,

00:00:58.480 interracial marriage is more common

00:01:03.960 than interpolitical marriage.

00:01:07.200 It turns out that the countries that are more,

00:01:11.960 have more hard-coded gender roles

00:01:14.380 have lower fertility rates than countries

00:01:16.540 where men are more willing to help domestically.

00:01:20.320 Would you like to know more?

00:01:21.620 Hello, everybody.

00:01:22.620 Today, we are joined by more births on Twitter,

00:01:25.620 also known to his more close acquaintances,

00:01:29.880 such as ourselves and now you, Daniel.

00:01:32.740 We're super excited to have you, Daniel.

00:01:34.360 And today, because you are the foremost person on Twitter,

00:01:37.840 giving really great graphic-heavy,

00:01:40.100 in-depth threads on Twitter,

00:01:41.840 on demographic collapse and pernatalism,

00:01:43.700 we'd love to discuss the fertility factors

00:01:47.360 that correlate with higher fertility

00:01:50.120 and lower fertility from a behavioral

00:01:51.920 and lifestyle standpoint.

00:01:53.800 Previously, we talked about things

00:01:55.220 that were happening on a national level

00:01:56.820 from a policy and propaganda standpoint,

00:01:59.080 but I think it's really fun

00:02:00.880 to talk about the personal attributes.

00:02:02.600 Malcolm and I have talked a lot

00:02:03.580 about different cultural elements,

00:02:05.440 but what really stands out to you?

00:02:07.120 And what have you talked about at length

00:02:08.280 on Twitter when it comes to factors

00:02:10.480 that correlate with low or high fertility?

00:02:13.640 Yeah.

00:02:13.840 One of the factors that's a really big factor

00:02:16.460 that's not especially talked about is marriage.

00:02:20.860 So that's one thing

00:02:21.840 that's a really big fertility factor.

00:02:24.900 And so part of it is people are just marrying late.

00:02:29.740 And actually, this is a Twitter

00:02:30.500 that I just put out today,

00:02:32.020 but you can see the average age at marriage.

00:02:36.200 Yeah, so here we can see the age at marriage in Europe.

00:02:39.300 And it's like super high everywhere.

00:02:42.420 Oh, so for people who are watching this on audio,

00:02:45.200 like it is actually shocking.

00:02:46.740 Most of the ages are like 33.8 in France,

00:02:50.000 34.8 in Sweden.

00:02:51.800 31.9 in the UK.

00:02:53.740 In Germany, 31.2.

00:02:57.440 In Ireland, 31.9.

00:03:00.200 Like it is, wow.

00:03:01.880 Where'd you get the UK number?

00:03:02.960 I don't see that, Simone.

00:03:04.160 Oh, sorry, I'm looking at Ireland.

00:03:06.000 Silly me, sorry.

00:03:06.780 Yeah, this map doesn't show the UK,

00:03:08.900 but it's, yeah, certainly it's very high in all of Europe.

00:03:11.160 And I'm going to, I want to switch to sharing.

00:03:13.060 The lowest one we're seeing here is 24.9.

00:03:16.340 Malcolm, you and I married at 25 and 26.

00:03:18.780 We were young married people.

00:03:20.700 Yeah, you look at a country like Turkey,

00:03:22.260 it's 25.2.

00:03:23.780 So we were younger than,

00:03:25.560 we would have brought down

00:03:26.820 the average first age in Turkey.

00:03:29.160 Oh.

00:03:29.360 And yeah, that's wild.

00:03:32.200 Yeah.

00:03:32.520 So yeah, I want to actually share something else.

00:03:35.380 That's, I want to share,

00:03:36.480 show this on a world scale

00:03:37.740 so we can see what's going on even more.

00:03:39.860 So here it is.

00:03:40.460 I didn't realize how late it was on average.

00:03:43.480 I'm wondering,

00:03:44.400 maybe this has to do with second marriages.

00:03:46.280 If they're counting every single marriage that happens,

00:03:48.400 maybe when 70 year olds get remarried after they're widowed.

00:03:50.980 Here is the world.

00:03:52.300 Okay.

00:03:53.060 So here we can see first marriage.

00:03:55.600 So you can see how Europe stands out

00:03:58.100 as having these super late marriages.

00:04:00.880 You can see,

00:04:02.000 you can also see that

00:04:03.040 what's the most fertile part of the world

00:04:04.900 and what's the part of the world

00:04:05.960 that has early marriages.

00:04:08.540 Yeah, you go Africa.

00:04:09.400 This is really interesting.

00:04:10.760 So we talk about fertility collapse in Latin America

00:04:13.080 and I think what people would be surprised by here

00:04:16.460 is a good chunk of Latin America

00:04:17.960 has later fertility,

00:04:19.780 later marriages than the United States.

00:04:22.280 Yeah.

00:04:22.800 And most of the developed world

00:04:24.620 has later marriages than the United States.

00:04:26.360 So you're looking at a place like Australia

00:04:28.000 has much later marriages,

00:04:29.400 South Africa.

00:04:30.460 Canada.

00:04:30.780 We're not in a developed country anymore.

00:04:33.020 Britain has super late fertility rates.

00:04:35.580 Chile, very late fertility rates.

00:04:37.320 Brazil, late,

00:04:38.380 sorry, not late fertility rates,

00:04:39.680 late marriage rates.

00:04:40.480 Brazil and Chile are really unique on this graph.

00:04:42.780 They're in like 34, 32 range.

00:04:46.100 That's so interesting.

00:04:47.160 And fertility is dropping all throughout the 20s.

00:04:50.500 So like by the time you're 30,

00:04:51.660 even for a woman,

00:04:53.060 fertility is already like way lower than it was.

00:04:56.080 That's like trying to have kids with a grandmom.

00:05:00.020 Thanks, Malcolm.

00:05:00.860 We have six children,

00:05:05.720 so I'm very fortunate.

00:05:07.840 When my wife was 30,

00:05:09.440 she was 36 or 35 when she had the fifth one

00:05:13.340 and she was 40 when she had the sixth one.

00:05:15.320 But when she was like 30,

00:05:16.500 35 or 36,

00:05:17.860 the doctor called it medically like a geriatric pregnancy.

00:05:20.500 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:05:21.720 Which is,

00:05:22.480 this is the,

00:05:23.060 now this is the age

00:05:24.080 that people are getting married in Europe.

00:05:26.600 Now I do want to,

00:05:28.000 people are instantly going to react in Europe.

00:05:30.000 People don't have to get married to have kids

00:05:31.340 and most people don't.

00:05:32.140 And that's true.

00:05:33.020 Yeah.

00:05:33.440 But nevertheless,

00:05:35.220 it is still true

00:05:37.240 that the odds of getting,

00:05:39.540 of having children are far higher,

00:05:41.160 like four times as high

00:05:42.300 if a couple is married.

00:05:44.700 And this came up in the Swedish data

00:05:46.800 that I think Malcolm and I reviewed

00:05:48.140 in a previous podcast

00:05:49.140 where correlating highly

00:05:50.980 with this drop in fertility rate

00:05:52.500 that now even Sweden is seeing

00:05:53.740 despite their incredibly

00:05:54.760 pro-natalist lifestyles and policies

00:05:56.640 is the cohabitation of couples,

00:06:01.120 but not marriage,

00:06:02.700 which is interesting.

00:06:03.800 Yeah, yeah.

00:06:04.120 So people who say that marriage doesn't matter,

00:06:06.940 like the data does not bear this out.

00:06:09.180 Oh my God,

00:06:10.280 the data on marriage

00:06:11.280 in terms of like life happiness

00:06:12.780 and stuff like that

00:06:13.720 is so high.

00:06:15.080 We did another episode on this

00:06:16.780 and I'll try to pull this up

00:06:17.880 in the research,

00:06:18.560 but I seem to remember

00:06:19.200 it's like the difference

00:06:20.840 between making like 200K extra a year

00:06:23.860 on average.

00:06:24.720 And so if you correlated it

00:06:26.880 with career decisions

00:06:28.080 that people are making

00:06:29.200 instead of getting married,

00:06:31.760 if what they are actually pursuing

00:06:33.440 is happiness,

00:06:34.400 they are making the wrong decision.

00:06:36.860 I think we have to think about

00:06:37.580 what marriage signals too.

00:06:39.020 Marriage signals a level of expectation

00:06:42.600 that you are going to be in this for life.

00:06:46.340 And when you choose to not get married,

00:06:47.740 I think the default assumption

00:06:49.460 is that at some point

00:06:50.800 you're not going to be together.

00:06:52.280 Even couples who marry

00:06:53.520 and then get divorced a year later,

00:06:55.940 they still started out

00:06:57.120 thinking it was going to be forever.

00:06:58.600 And those are the people

00:06:59.460 who are going to commit to having kids.

00:07:01.500 Yeah.

00:07:01.700 And the advantage of marriage

00:07:02.920 like socially is just massive

00:07:04.120 in terms of if you look at happiness,

00:07:06.780 the happiness gap is huge.

00:07:07.840 The wealth gap is huge.

00:07:08.840 The life expectancy gap is enormous.

00:07:12.080 And there's another thing.

00:07:12.900 You have this,

00:07:13.860 it's funny,

00:07:14.660 you have this element

00:07:16.060 of the far right

00:07:17.020 and the far left

00:07:18.000 that are like against marriage.

00:07:19.220 You have the men

00:07:19.820 going on their own way,

00:07:20.780 manosphere types.

00:07:22.060 And then you've got

00:07:22.980 the hardcore feminist types

00:07:25.060 that are both against marriage.

00:07:26.780 Whereas the normies in the middle

00:07:27.820 are like,

00:07:28.240 this is obviously good.

00:07:30.120 But go ahead.

00:07:31.000 I don't, I'm not saying

00:07:31.780 anyone who says marriage is good.

00:07:33.460 It's 12 to 25% higher

00:07:35.800 or 24% higher.

00:07:37.260 What is higher?

00:07:38.160 Happiness ratings

00:07:39.020 among individuals who are married

00:07:40.260 versus ones who aren't.

00:07:41.720 And so-

00:07:42.100 People are talking about that.

00:07:43.080 When I'm on YouTube

00:07:43.660 and I'm just organically

00:07:44.920 letting things autoplay,

00:07:46.720 the messages that I'm getting

00:07:48.020 at least from women

00:07:49.600 is having a husband

00:07:51.740 is like having another child

00:07:53.200 to take care of.

00:07:54.160 They don't provide support

00:07:55.100 or they're going to leave you

00:07:57.100 even if you want to be a trad wife

00:07:58.420 and be supported by them.

00:07:59.780 They're going to dump you

00:08:00.940 and you're going to be on your own

00:08:02.000 and your life's going to be ruined.

00:08:03.200 And we do have

00:08:04.880 fewer disincentives

00:08:06.840 to leave a partner.

00:08:08.400 If your husband has married you

00:08:09.520 because you're attractive,

00:08:10.920 which is a huge problem

00:08:12.180 because women often try

00:08:13.020 to secure husbands

00:08:13.700 for using that.

00:08:15.220 He doesn't really have

00:08:16.720 that much of a reason

00:08:17.520 to not leave you

00:08:18.380 when you become older

00:08:19.520 and that's intrinsically

00:08:20.740 less attractive,

00:08:21.440 which is like a natural

00:08:22.860 process that women go through

00:08:24.480 when your attractiveness

00:08:25.520 is how fertile

00:08:26.280 and genetically healthy

00:08:27.640 a woman looks

00:08:28.240 in a historic context.

00:08:29.460 And historically,

00:08:30.840 the reason why men

00:08:31.520 didn't do this

00:08:32.440 is because when a man

00:08:33.880 left his wife

00:08:34.880 in a historic

00:08:35.880 conservative context,

00:08:37.680 everyone in the community

00:08:38.600 would know that he had

00:08:39.420 left his wife

00:08:40.140 and this would attach

00:08:41.380 a huge negative

00:08:42.520 social modifier

00:08:43.580 to his status

00:08:45.380 as a partner

00:08:46.000 and his status

00:08:46.700 was in the community.

00:08:47.780 Whereas we no longer

00:08:49.040 have these externalities anymore.

00:08:50.900 And then with women,

00:08:51.860 you've got alimony

00:08:52.820 and all sorts of other

00:08:53.940 perverse incentives

00:08:55.640 around potentially

00:08:57.240 leaving a husband

00:08:58.080 and not having

00:08:59.280 as much negative effects

00:09:01.060 as you would have

00:09:01.640 in a historical context

00:09:02.720 because you're still

00:09:03.720 getting the cash flows.

00:09:04.980 Why not leave the husband

00:09:06.260 if you still get the cash flows

00:09:07.400 no matter what you do?

00:09:08.260 It is important

00:09:08.940 to recognize

00:09:09.980 why people are so critical

00:09:12.460 of the institution

00:09:13.640 of marriage today

00:09:14.440 while still pointing out

00:09:15.920 that objectively

00:09:16.740 if you can get into

00:09:17.720 a healthy marriage

00:09:18.720 because keep in mind

00:09:19.960 this like 24% happier rating,

00:09:22.200 this is including

00:09:23.600 the terrible marriages.

00:09:25.320 Oh yeah.

00:09:25.720 And the good marriages

00:09:26.820 are like off the charts,

00:09:28.540 like double happiness ratings.

00:09:31.100 Oh yeah.

00:09:31.760 Oh yeah.

00:09:32.080 Like the gap

00:09:33.020 is just so incredible

00:09:34.060 that it's almost ridiculous

00:09:35.240 that the people

00:09:36.080 aren't like knocking down

00:09:37.420 the doors eager for this.

00:09:38.420 And one interesting point

00:09:39.580 is that divorced men

00:09:41.300 who are supposedly

00:09:42.100 the ones that got burned

00:09:43.140 and wrecked the worst,

00:09:44.540 these are the reason

00:09:45.600 that the MGTOW people

00:09:46.800 are so against marriage

00:09:49.200 because oh,

00:09:49.560 it might end in divorce

00:09:50.400 and then the guy is wrecked.

00:09:51.880 No, those guys

00:09:53.180 that got divorced

00:09:54.200 are the ones

00:09:55.100 that are lining up first

00:09:56.340 to get remarried.

00:09:58.500 So they're not upset

00:09:59.680 that they were married,

00:10:00.580 they're just upset

00:10:01.120 that it ended

00:10:01.620 and they want to get

00:10:02.240 back into a marriage.

00:10:03.760 Because if you look

00:10:04.540 at the remarriage rate,

00:10:05.440 it's actually very high.

00:10:06.520 But I have another chart

00:10:07.660 that I want to share next.

00:10:09.620 Do you know off the top

00:10:11.280 of your head

00:10:11.620 if remarriage rates

00:10:12.440 are higher among men

00:10:14.740 versus women?

00:10:15.680 Yeah, yeah.

00:10:16.040 They are higher among men

00:10:16.980 than among women.

00:10:17.940 That's what the data shows.

00:10:19.500 But the one thing

00:10:21.020 that where women

00:10:22.960 really have a huge benefit

00:10:24.880 from marriage

00:10:25.420 is if you look

00:10:25.980 at household wealth

00:10:27.020 and household income,

00:10:28.760 it's just massively higher

00:10:30.820 for women that are in marriage.

00:10:34.100 There's just so many

00:10:36.600 economic efficiencies

00:10:38.440 in terms of everything.

00:10:40.100 But there is another point

00:10:41.100 that I want to talk about

00:10:42.120 with marriage.

00:10:43.980 There's actually

00:10:44.660 two types of marriage.

00:10:46.420 And so there's like

00:10:47.820 kind of the business

00:10:48.820 type of marriage,

00:10:49.700 which is the marriage

00:10:50.420 that existed

00:10:51.040 until the 20th century.

00:10:53.320 The corporate family.

00:10:55.100 Yes, yes.

00:10:56.820 But this is not a dead model.

00:10:58.420 It's actually

00:10:58.740 a pretty active model.

00:11:00.140 Yeah, totally.

00:11:01.020 If you look at your couple,

00:11:02.140 even I know you guys

00:11:03.160 are quite in love

00:11:03.740 with each other,

00:11:04.320 but also.

00:11:06.020 We also decided

00:11:07.280 to get married

00:11:07.800 when we knew

00:11:08.260 we weren't in love

00:11:09.060 and that was crucial.

00:11:10.160 You also have a,

00:11:11.000 you're a mission

00:11:11.520 driven marriage.

00:11:12.800 Yeah, we are a corporate

00:11:13.840 marriage first and foremost.

00:11:15.260 The concept of marrying

00:11:16.020 for love or for,

00:11:17.200 it's one of the crazy things

00:11:18.740 is we tried

00:11:19.460 to matchmake people, right?

00:11:21.180 And they'd be like,

00:11:22.060 we're like, look,

00:11:22.680 we've done like a deep dive

00:11:24.120 on all of your personal history,

00:11:25.660 everything like that,

00:11:26.580 your class status,

00:11:27.700 everything.

00:11:28.480 You've got an amazing couple

00:11:30.100 and they look at the picture

00:11:31.440 of the person

00:11:32.080 and they're like,

00:11:33.720 oh, I'm not interested.

00:11:34.740 And I'm like,

00:11:35.300 excuse me,

00:11:35.860 this isn't a prostitute.

00:11:37.540 This is someone you're marrying.

00:11:38.920 How arousing you find them

00:11:40.680 is next to irrelevant.

00:11:42.760 And they've been taught,

00:11:43.940 they're like, no,

00:11:45.160 sex is very important.

00:11:46.520 I've learned that from what?

00:11:48.660 Where did you learn that from?

00:11:50.000 You learn that from these stupid

00:11:51.580 status hierarchies

00:11:52.720 that you're competing in.

00:11:54.000 But at an objective level,

00:11:55.780 if you choose your partner

00:11:57.200 and how arousing they are

00:11:59.200 is a huge part

00:12:00.300 of why you are choosing them,

00:12:01.920 you are going to be

00:12:03.000 dramatically less happy

00:12:04.780 and less productive.

00:12:06.940 And your kids

00:12:08.020 are going to be less efficacious

00:12:09.440 than you would have been

00:12:10.580 had you just approached

00:12:11.660 this like a sane person.

00:12:12.900 And we're not like serving people,

00:12:14.780 individuals who are way

00:12:16.060 out of their league or something.

00:12:17.000 These are people

00:12:18.580 who just are not

00:12:19.640 their perfect aesthetic

00:12:21.300 where the way

00:12:22.720 you should really

00:12:23.280 be approaching marriage

00:12:24.160 is anyone who's like

00:12:25.640 above a bottom bar

00:12:27.420 of I would have sex

00:12:28.560 with that person

00:12:29.320 should be easily

00:12:30.620 in the category of marriage.

00:12:33.160 Anyway.

00:12:34.000 What, Daniel,

00:12:34.600 is your second type of marriage?

00:12:36.220 Okay, so the second one

00:12:37.300 is called companionate marriage.

00:12:39.240 And so actually,

00:12:39.860 this is an interesting thing

00:12:41.140 because most people

00:12:41.740 don't realize this,

00:12:43.240 but the original

00:12:44.220 fertility collapse

00:12:45.380 in America

00:12:46.120 was like before,

00:12:49.140 like long before the pill.

00:12:50.220 Like America

00:12:50.700 and like all of Western Europe

00:12:52.120 were actually below

00:12:53.160 replacement level

00:12:54.460 in the 1930s.

00:12:55.540 And you have to remember,

00:12:56.300 by the way,

00:12:57.280 that replacement level fertility

00:12:58.840 was higher than 2.1 back then.

00:13:01.260 It was probably like 2.5

00:13:02.300 or something.

00:13:02.720 Right, with all the deaths.

00:13:03.700 With higher,

00:13:05.160 like infant and child mortality

00:13:06.360 and stuff like that.

00:13:07.420 So like Europe

00:13:08.880 and America

00:13:09.540 were below

00:13:10.300 replacement fertility

00:13:11.600 like in the 1930s.

00:13:12.800 Imagine that.

00:13:13.260 And what caused that

00:13:14.600 was the transition

00:13:16.120 from this corporate

00:13:16.960 or like the view

00:13:19.060 of marriage,

00:13:19.760 of a household

00:13:20.880 as like a business

00:13:21.800 and as a purposeful

00:13:23.060 like mission-driven thing

00:13:24.800 to like companionate marriage,

00:13:27.960 which is actually,

00:13:29.620 you know,

00:13:29.860 because there's a ton of ways

00:13:31.580 actually people think,

00:13:33.460 oh, it's just modern birth control.

00:13:34.560 People have been able

00:13:35.100 to control their fertility

00:13:35.940 for like thousands of years.

00:13:38.040 The reason that Rome collapsed

00:13:39.720 almost certainly,

00:13:40.400 and I have a Christmas Day thread

00:13:42.140 that's awesome.

00:13:43.080 I just popped that out there

00:13:44.120 and it got like

00:13:45.140 a couple hundred thousand views.

00:13:46.460 Like I just,

00:13:46.920 I came home,

00:13:47.680 I came downstairs

00:13:48.340 like to the presence

00:13:49.200 just a little bit late

00:13:50.120 so that I could pop out

00:13:51.280 that thread.

00:13:52.340 And then,

00:13:52.720 but it was mad,

00:13:53.320 because it was like

00:13:54.060 talking about the fall of Rome,

00:13:55.060 which is like on every person's mind,

00:13:56.440 right?

00:13:56.600 Every man's mind.

00:13:58.240 Every man's mind.

00:13:59.480 Yeah, it was actually

00:14:00.600 fertility collapse

00:14:01.500 in Rome

00:14:02.400 like back then.

00:14:03.880 And we know

00:14:04.460 because the leaders of Rome

00:14:05.560 were trying really hard

00:14:06.540 to encourage fertility,

00:14:07.820 but people,

00:14:08.480 the Roman leaders

00:14:09.100 were able to,

00:14:09.860 they were trying to pass laws

00:14:12.300 to encourage people

00:14:13.060 to have more children,

00:14:13.640 but people were able

00:14:14.340 to control their fertility

00:14:15.260 very easily

00:14:16.460 through withdrawal

00:14:17.800 as people have known

00:14:18.700 about withdrawal

00:14:19.300 since probably like

00:14:20.220 caveman times probably.

00:14:22.320 And also,

00:14:22.980 they would leave the babies

00:14:23.800 on hillside.

00:14:24.420 So there are all sorts of things.

00:14:25.440 Oh, there are loads

00:14:27.420 of interventions.

00:14:28.540 Of hedonism,

00:14:29.560 there's less reasons

00:14:30.780 for cultural practices

00:14:32.920 that you inherited

00:14:34.300 from your ancestors

00:14:35.100 to be followed

00:14:35.840 because they can seem

00:14:36.820 pretty pointless

00:14:37.440 and they will endanger

00:14:38.840 hedonistic pursuits

00:14:40.740 and mindsets.

00:14:42.360 And cross-culturally,

00:14:43.440 whenever you have

00:14:44.020 a time of prosperity,

00:14:45.600 you often abandon

00:14:46.840 many of the old ways

00:14:48.140 which motivate things

00:14:49.200 like kids have value

00:14:50.600 and stuff like that

00:14:51.540 as concepts.

00:14:53.500 And yeah,

00:14:54.320 we do see this in Rome

00:14:55.260 as you pointed out.

00:14:56.280 Okay, so something new,

00:14:57.120 something different

00:14:57.520 I want to point out next.

00:14:58.620 Here's a new visual.

00:14:59.640 This is probably something

00:15:00.920 that you guys have seen.

00:15:02.640 Here we go.

00:15:03.500 This visual was created

00:15:04.460 by John Byrne Murdoch

00:15:05.560 over in the UK.

00:15:07.540 Oh, we did an episode on this.

00:15:08.800 This went super viral.

00:15:10.340 You know that,

00:15:11.200 so here's an interesting fact.

00:15:13.180 Like in the United States

00:15:15.740 in the current year,

00:15:18.080 interracial marriage

00:15:20.360 is more common

00:15:22.360 than interpolitical marriage.

00:15:25.980 Oh!

00:15:27.060 That's interesting, right?

00:15:28.620 Yes, and it's interesting

00:15:29.700 when you consider

00:15:30.200 that for every conservative man,

00:15:32.520 like if you're out there dating

00:15:33.420 and you're a conservative man,

00:15:34.640 there are more than

00:15:36.120 two conservative men

00:15:37.280 fighting over

00:15:37.740 every conservative woman,

00:15:38.780 and there's more than

00:15:39.660 two Democratic women

00:15:40.960 fighting over

00:15:41.540 every Democratic man.

00:15:42.800 That's wild.

00:15:43.380 So I would say

00:15:44.600 my recommendation

00:15:45.740 for my daughters

00:15:46.840 would be

00:15:47.300 become a hardcore conservative.

00:15:49.260 My recommendation

00:15:49.980 for my sons

00:15:50.780 would be to

00:15:51.400 hide any conservatism

00:15:53.660 and show moderation.

00:15:56.820 So just

00:15:57.400 sheerly by the numbers,

00:15:58.940 but here's another...

00:16:00.100 Yeah, that's actually

00:16:00.780 really solid dating advice.

00:16:02.440 Now here's another piece of...

00:16:03.540 I don't...

00:16:04.540 Malcolm, you coded

00:16:07.100 as broadly progressive

00:16:08.940 when I met you.

00:16:10.020 I agree.

00:16:10.980 So what?

00:16:11.400 Find the conservative genotypes

00:16:13.040 in the progressive population?

00:16:16.100 Okay, here I want to show

00:16:17.440 like another chart.

00:16:18.420 What this shows is

00:16:19.520 how the time

00:16:21.480 that men

00:16:22.020 invest in household chores.

00:16:24.860 So this is one way

00:16:25.920 of bridging

00:16:26.700 the kind of

00:16:27.300 the cultural gap

00:16:28.320 between men and women.

00:16:29.240 Men and women

00:16:29.800 have got to get along

00:16:30.920 if you're going to have children,

00:16:32.660 obviously.

00:16:33.420 It turns out

00:16:34.440 that the countries

00:16:35.540 have more

00:16:38.880 hard-coded

00:16:39.760 gender roles,

00:16:41.000 which would be like

00:16:41.640 Japan, South Korea, Italy.

00:16:43.440 The term machismo

00:16:44.220 is an Italian word,

00:16:46.000 I think.

00:16:46.600 These countries

00:16:47.220 have lower fertility rates

00:16:48.360 than countries

00:16:49.160 where men are more

00:16:50.240 willing to help domestically.

00:16:53.460 And so this is something...

00:16:55.160 I hadn't seen this before,

00:16:56.040 but this makes perfect sense.

00:16:57.480 And it's something

00:16:57.940 that a lot of

00:16:58.700 conservative guys

00:16:59.860 misunderstand.

00:17:00.920 They're like this

00:17:01.480 get-in-the-kitchen attitude.

00:17:03.280 They think this leads

00:17:04.580 to high fertility rates.

00:17:05.660 And I'm like,

00:17:05.940 it objectively does not.

00:17:07.520 If anything,

00:17:08.020 it is what is causing

00:17:09.020 South Korea's

00:17:10.000 fertility collapse

00:17:10.780 because no woman

00:17:11.940 wants to get married

00:17:12.660 under these terms.

00:17:13.460 Oh, yeah.

00:17:13.740 Yeah.

00:17:13.880 In South Korea,

00:17:14.480 there's like a term for it.

00:17:15.840 I forget what it is,

00:17:16.780 but it's like the three no's.

00:17:18.220 It's no marriage.

00:17:18.800 Four no's.

00:17:19.640 Four no's.

00:17:20.480 Oh, geez.

00:17:20.840 There's four now.

00:17:21.980 It might be three.

00:17:23.200 It's no marriage,

00:17:23.840 no sex, no kids.

00:17:24.760 And I think that there's

00:17:25.440 a fourth one,

00:17:26.080 but I could be wrong.

00:17:26.520 I don't know.

00:17:26.760 Anyway, yeah.

00:17:27.360 These are women

00:17:28.080 that are just

00:17:28.560 straight on strike.

00:17:29.820 Now, what is manlier

00:17:30.800 to refuse to do dishes

00:17:32.100 and have no children

00:17:33.060 or be there as a guy

00:17:34.580 like in the kitchen

00:17:35.300 helping out

00:17:36.020 and then have a bunch of kids?

00:17:38.700 It's no sex,

00:17:39.960 child-rearing,

00:17:40.680 dating, or marriage.

00:17:41.680 Yeah, it's no sex.

00:17:42.960 Yeah, no sex,

00:17:43.940 child-rearing,

00:17:44.400 yeah, dating, marriage.

00:17:45.240 And I have a personal

00:17:46.180 anecdote related to that.

00:17:48.460 After four kids,

00:17:49.620 I received an ultimatum

00:17:50.940 from my wife.

00:17:52.020 No more kids.

00:17:52.780 We're done

00:17:53.240 unless you start

00:17:54.460 helping around the house.

00:17:56.200 Actually, there's a big gap

00:17:57.320 between number four

00:17:58.660 and number five and six.

00:17:59.420 I had to,

00:17:59.960 because I thought

00:18:00.400 I'm the breadwinner.

00:18:02.720 My wife is taking care

00:18:03.560 of the kids.

00:18:04.120 I was like,

00:18:04.760 I'm doing my part.

00:18:05.560 I'm done.

00:18:06.300 I've checked off my box.

00:18:08.040 And I got that ultimatum

00:18:09.380 and I had to learn

00:18:10.300 to be a lot more domestic.

00:18:12.400 I do a lot of laundry.

00:18:14.700 I do all the grocery shopping.

00:18:16.380 I do all sorts

00:18:17.420 of house cleaning

00:18:18.120 and cooking.

00:18:19.440 And then my wife

00:18:20.540 was willing

00:18:21.780 to have two more

00:18:22.600 and now we're at six.

00:18:24.300 That's really interesting.

00:18:25.260 So like the marginal

00:18:26.080 investment needed

00:18:27.400 from you

00:18:28.200 in terms of

00:18:29.160 supplementary care

00:18:30.580 became higher

00:18:31.440 after a certain number

00:18:32.720 of kids.

00:18:33.760 Yeah, there were,

00:18:34.300 there's two aspects to it.

00:18:35.820 One is like the raw

00:18:36.680 amount of help

00:18:37.560 and the fact that

00:18:38.540 taking off the load.

00:18:39.740 So that certainly

00:18:40.600 made it easier.

00:18:41.460 But the other part

00:18:42.300 is when there's

00:18:44.280 a cold gender dynamic,

00:18:45.940 when there's conflict

00:18:46.880 in the gender domain,

00:18:48.960 in the,

00:18:49.640 then that's gonna

00:18:50.540 lower fertility.

00:18:52.160 and what the guy

00:18:53.240 can do

00:18:53.780 to soften that

00:18:54.540 and fix that

00:18:55.160 is to start

00:18:56.020 helping domestically

00:18:56.920 or help

00:18:57.540 in whatever ways

00:18:58.600 they can.

00:18:59.160 And all large families

00:19:00.120 know that it's

00:19:01.420 all hands on deck

00:19:02.240 and it's not,

00:19:03.060 it's whatever works

00:19:04.220 and what,

00:19:04.600 if somebody is good

00:19:05.660 at some particular thing,

00:19:06.940 then they can do that

00:19:08.200 regardless of

00:19:08.880 traditional gender roles.

00:19:09.860 So it's,

00:19:10.560 I think that the best

00:19:12.420 philosophy

00:19:13.400 for what kind

00:19:14.160 of household you have

00:19:15.000 or what kind

00:19:15.320 of dynamic

00:19:15.680 should you have

00:19:16.520 is whatever works.

00:19:18.400 Yeah, totally.

00:19:19.260 Yeah.

00:19:19.500 In our household,

00:19:20.300 I do all the inside

00:19:21.940 housekeeping,

00:19:23.280 Malcolm does all

00:19:23.760 the outside housekeeping,

00:19:25.120 I get any,

00:19:26.500 I do the,

00:19:27.120 obviously all the pregnancies

00:19:28.360 and then any infant

00:19:29.620 and he gets

00:19:30.360 all the older ones.

00:19:31.140 Every kid other

00:19:32.120 than the youngest

00:19:32.800 is my responsibility.

00:19:34.300 So as you can see,

00:19:35.400 Malcolm's taking

00:19:36.020 on the lion's chair.

00:19:37.040 No, I don't think so.

00:19:38.260 And there is no answer.

00:19:39.820 There's no right answer.

00:19:40.760 It's just like

00:19:41.420 what every couple

00:19:43.060 is gonna find

00:19:43.760 that like what

00:19:44.280 they're comfortable with

00:19:45.160 and what they're good at.

00:19:46.360 It may break along

00:19:47.580 traditional gender lines.

00:19:49.660 It may break

00:19:50.180 totally opposite there,

00:19:52.240 but it,

00:19:53.060 that's.

00:19:53.640 But the get in the kitchen

00:19:55.080 mindset is sterilizing.

00:19:57.100 Oh yeah, absolutely.

00:19:57.700 And it's something

00:19:57.800 that so many guys

00:19:59.200 think that they look

00:20:00.080 so cool for doing

00:20:01.500 and it's like

00:20:01.880 you don't look cool.

00:20:02.480 Well, I appreciate too

00:20:03.680 that you pointed out

00:20:04.840 the birth control argument

00:20:06.020 because it's both

00:20:06.620 the get in the kitchen argument

00:20:07.920 and the birth control argument

00:20:09.180 that we hear so much

00:20:10.400 from misguided people

00:20:12.160 talking about pronatalism

00:20:14.160 and it just drives me so nuts

00:20:15.800 because to your point,

00:20:16.920 yeah, people totally had ways

00:20:18.220 of not having kids

00:20:19.460 and that has existed

00:20:21.640 for a long time

00:20:22.480 and no birth control

00:20:23.480 was not the death knell.

00:20:24.520 There are a lot

00:20:24.920 of other cultural factors,

00:20:26.520 but what would you else,

00:20:28.140 what other factors?

00:20:29.180 Okay, so let's go,

00:20:30.080 let's jump to something

00:20:31.120 completely different.

00:20:32.240 Yeah.

00:20:32.600 Which is,

00:20:33.080 which I want to talk about,

00:20:33.860 which is housing.

00:20:34.840 So let me pull up

00:20:35.860 another visual.

00:20:36.420 This is great

00:20:37.100 because there's a huge

00:20:37.960 correlation between

00:20:39.300 YIMBY people

00:20:40.200 and pronatalists

00:20:41.040 we've noticed.

00:20:41.940 We're not really sure why

00:20:43.260 because we haven't,

00:20:44.600 we don't see a whole lot of-

00:20:46.160 They're both like practical,

00:20:47.760 real, obvious solutions

00:20:49.180 that you can implement

00:20:50.160 that make things better

00:20:51.180 in society.

00:20:52.140 Yeah.

00:20:52.560 But the YIMBYism is,

00:20:54.860 or people who don't know YIMBYism

00:20:56.200 means yes,

00:20:56.720 in my backyard,

00:20:57.700 they're trying to loosen

00:20:58.620 restrictions on development

00:21:00.340 to get less expensive houses

00:21:01.780 and they want to

00:21:02.880 cross-correlate these things

00:21:04.000 and I don't think

00:21:04.580 that they're highly

00:21:05.060 cross-correlated at all.

00:21:06.540 But maybe Daniel,

00:21:07.340 you can change your mind.

00:21:08.080 Okay, so I have,

00:21:09.680 yeah,

00:21:09.900 this is an issue

00:21:11.160 that I have

00:21:11.600 and I have a strong

00:21:12.320 disagreement actually.

00:21:14.880 I love that.

00:21:15.720 That's our favorite.

00:21:16.580 Okay, here we go.

00:21:17.320 This is a,

00:21:18.080 this is,

00:21:18.440 so what we're looking

00:21:19.220 right now is Macau.

00:21:20.780 Okay, this is Macau.

00:21:21.940 Its fertility is like 0.6

00:21:23.560 or something.

00:21:25.240 It's like insanely low.

00:21:26.200 It's like one of these

00:21:26.720 insanely low places

00:21:27.900 just like Seoul

00:21:28.700 and Shanghai

00:21:30.120 and Beijing

00:21:30.720 and Bangkok

00:21:31.700 and places like this.

00:21:33.140 So this is my,

00:21:34.540 I have a very sharp

00:21:35.400 disagreement with

00:21:36.380 Brian Kaplan.

00:21:37.480 I know he's got this

00:21:38.100 new book coming out

00:21:38.940 and he's a YIMBY guy.

00:21:40.600 He's got rid of all

00:21:41.260 zoning.

00:21:42.100 Yeah.

00:21:42.440 But I think you have

00:21:43.380 to be very careful

00:21:45.760 because it matters

00:21:46.900 dramatically

00:21:47.900 what you build

00:21:49.540 because this,

00:21:50.660 if you build

00:21:51.020 an apartment tower,

00:21:52.680 that could be around

00:21:53.740 for a hundred years.

00:21:55.760 And so one of my posts,

00:21:58.400 the density

00:21:59.220 is intensely correlated

00:22:00.780 with fertility

00:22:01.500 like all the way

00:22:02.260 up and down the spectrum.

00:22:03.660 So let me share

00:22:04.380 something else next,

00:22:06.100 a kind of a contrast.

00:22:07.900 Let me see.

00:22:08.940 Here we go.

00:22:09.540 Now,

00:22:10.100 how does that look?

00:22:13.300 Now we're looking

00:22:14.040 at a picture

00:22:14.480 of a typical

00:22:16.300 suburban neighborhood.

00:22:18.180 This is Atlanta.

00:22:18.920 So the fertility,

00:22:20.220 so usually

00:22:21.300 what we see

00:22:21.940 in the world,

00:22:22.280 and this is one

00:22:22.700 of the most

00:22:23.080 strong correlations

00:22:24.220 in all of demography,

00:22:27.260 it's the denser

00:22:28.260 you get,

00:22:28.860 the lower

00:22:29.380 the fertility is.

00:22:30.300 Yeah,

00:22:31.160 and I think

00:22:31.540 Emil Kierkegaard

00:22:32.260 has done

00:22:32.680 some interesting

00:22:33.300 blog posts

00:22:33.920 on how cities

00:22:35.060 for a very long time

00:22:36.220 have been fertility

00:22:36.960 shredders,

00:22:37.580 how for ages and ages.

00:22:39.140 IQ shredders

00:22:39.780 is the term.

00:22:40.380 No,

00:22:40.540 but for him

00:22:40.920 fertility shredders,

00:22:41.660 he talks about.

00:22:42.300 We've heard the term

00:22:42.800 on the internet

00:22:43.340 that's been floating

00:22:43.820 around for 15 years

00:22:44.680 is IQ shredders

00:22:45.860 because the cities

00:22:46.920 draw in the smartest people

00:22:48.160 for economic purposes

00:22:49.960 and then they don't

00:22:50.520 have children.

00:22:51.360 Yeah,

00:22:51.680 but just think

00:22:52.120 with high fertility groups.

00:22:53.060 So America

00:22:53.700 has the answer.

00:22:55.280 We know the answer

00:22:56.160 that I think

00:22:56.780 one of the greatest

00:22:57.320 inventions

00:22:57.840 that America has had

00:22:59.140 is like the suburbs

00:23:01.140 because the suburbs

00:23:02.600 can let people

00:23:03.980 have space

00:23:04.780 and a yard.

00:23:07.200 Oh,

00:23:07.400 the Yemi people

00:23:08.040 wouldn't like

00:23:08.480 this is the answer.

00:23:09.560 Uh-oh,

00:23:09.940 no,

00:23:10.160 there's this kind of

00:23:10.700 urban sprawl.

00:23:11.860 No,

00:23:12.060 it's a wonderful thing.

00:23:13.280 God bless urban sprawl.

00:23:14.480 Like seriously,

00:23:15.460 we have to,

00:23:16.180 like pronatalists

00:23:16.920 have to understand this

00:23:18.060 because the correlation

00:23:19.080 is so incredibly strong.

00:23:21.260 Like one reason,

00:23:22.480 and I was in Japan

00:23:23.320 with my family

00:23:24.880 in September

00:23:25.540 and I got,

00:23:26.840 we were staying

00:23:27.300 on the outskirts of Tokyo.

00:23:28.400 We rent,

00:23:28.940 Airbnb is a thing

00:23:29.800 in Japan

00:23:30.640 and also,

00:23:31.000 and if you have

00:23:31.320 a big family

00:23:31.800 like we do,

00:23:32.640 you have to rent a house.

00:23:34.040 You can't be staying

00:23:34.760 in a hotel.

00:23:35.100 Anyway,

00:23:35.400 but we were,

00:23:36.160 so I got to see

00:23:37.300 Tokyo and Japan

00:23:38.640 up close

00:23:39.460 and the urban landscape

00:23:43.040 is the reason

00:23:44.080 that it's almost impossible

00:23:45.340 for,

00:23:45.840 because Japan

00:23:46.840 is actually

00:23:47.320 extremely pronatalist now.

00:23:49.240 Like they have been

00:23:49.820 trying to be pronatalist

00:23:50.800 for 30 years

00:23:51.440 and people in Japan

00:23:53.440 are really positive

00:23:54.440 on kids,

00:23:55.760 but Japan

00:23:56.120 has this problem

00:23:57.180 which is that

00:23:58.380 Tokyo

00:23:59.140 is like a sea

00:24:00.700 of urban high rises

00:24:02.300 and that like structure

00:24:04.820 just has,

00:24:06.180 is associated

00:24:06.740 with super low fertility.

00:24:08.120 So that's one dynamic

00:24:09.980 and the other dynamic

00:24:10.920 is that all the young people

00:24:12.520 are just drawn to Tokyo

00:24:13.880 and so they just keep

00:24:16.440 coming to Tokyo

00:24:17.480 where they go on

00:24:18.560 to have like very small families

00:24:20.020 and meanwhile

00:24:21.280 in the countryside of Japan,

00:24:23.280 like there are

00:24:23.860 all these suburban looking houses

00:24:25.640 in the beautiful Japanese countryside

00:24:27.020 that like are available

00:24:30.480 for a song,

00:24:31.340 like they're practically

00:24:31.980 giving them away,

00:24:32.900 but nobody wants to live there

00:24:34.100 because everybody's drawn

00:24:34.820 to these urban high rises

00:24:35.900 and so it's like

00:24:36.980 this elevator effect

00:24:37.980 or this,

00:24:38.920 everybody's just drawn

00:24:39.740 into the city

00:24:40.420 where they keep having

00:24:41.220 low fertility.

00:24:41.880 The TFR in Tokyo

00:24:43.280 is like 1.0

00:24:44.120 and this is,

00:24:45.020 you have to understand

00:24:45.640 that this is now

00:24:46.240 a very pronatal culture

00:24:47.320 and still,

00:24:48.180 because of the urban architecture,

00:24:49.540 they can't,

00:24:50.040 they can't break through.

00:24:51.440 So what I,

00:24:52.860 what's wonderful

00:24:53.580 about the suburbs

00:24:54.300 is that people

00:24:54.920 are still integrated

00:24:56.360 with the urban economy.

00:24:57.920 They can still be connected

00:24:59.140 with the urban economy

00:25:00.100 but they're not

00:25:00.740 in these urban high rises

00:25:03.440 and that,

00:25:04.960 the density.

00:25:05.320 So I,

00:25:05.780 I'd promote

00:25:06.460 a totally different answer.

00:25:08.100 I think exurbs

00:25:09.820 and building up

00:25:10.760 the exurbs

00:25:11.340 of the post office economy.

00:25:15.880 Okay, yes.

00:25:16.420 So yeah,

00:25:16.860 I think what,

00:25:17.440 what Daniel's talking about here

00:25:19.100 and also I have to,

00:25:20.500 I'll find a link

00:25:20.980 to the Emil Kierkegaard

00:25:22.420 Substack article

00:25:23.300 where he talks about this

00:25:24.180 and he does talk about

00:25:24.880 what distance from cities

00:25:26.000 is optimal

00:25:26.820 because that's the question,

00:25:28.520 right?

00:25:28.720 Like where does

00:25:29.280 It's respect to the human farmer.

00:25:31.240 Yeah.

00:25:31.460 Everyone needs to own

00:25:32.540 their plot of land

00:25:33.560 where they can grow food

00:25:34.860 and can commute to the city

00:25:37.260 once a month

00:25:38.880 if they need to.

00:25:39.660 But yeah,

00:25:40.060 what you're saying though

00:25:40.820 is based on where we're going

00:25:42.600 with the economy

00:25:44.780 that in the end

00:25:46.100 being even further away.

00:25:47.720 And here's another chart

00:25:48.660 that we can put on the screen

00:25:50.700 if you like.

00:25:51.120 This is actually

00:25:51.680 by the Institute

00:25:52.280 for Family Studies

00:25:53.100 which is awesome

00:25:53.820 because you can find

00:25:54.680 so much,

00:25:56.000 such a wealth of data

00:25:56.900 on all the fertility factors

00:25:58.060 but here what we're looking at

00:25:59.080 is the fertility

00:25:59.840 for rural suburbs

00:26:01.940 and city center.

00:26:03.600 So the fertility

00:26:04.360 is far higher

00:26:05.220 for rural

00:26:05.940 than the suburbs

00:26:08.900 which is far higher

00:26:10.020 than the city center.

00:26:12.620 So like the less dense

00:26:14.160 you can have

00:26:14.920 the better it is

00:26:15.820 for fertility.

00:26:16.760 And this seems

00:26:17.620 this seems to be

00:26:18.500 like such a robust relationship.

00:26:20.160 This is like one

00:26:20.660 of the iron laws

00:26:21.360 of demography

00:26:22.020 is the more urbanized

00:26:24.000 the lower the fertility.

00:26:25.400 So that's a major factor.

00:26:26.900 Yeah,

00:26:27.260 so in our favor Malcolm.

00:26:29.280 Yeah.

00:26:29.660 So the further out

00:26:30.480 you can get

00:26:31.080 you know,

00:26:31.580 and work from home

00:26:32.280 is also a wonderful factor

00:26:33.440 for this reason.

00:26:34.280 So if part of it

00:26:34.920 is like the burden

00:26:35.560 of child care

00:26:36.180 if you like

00:26:36.940 one problem in Korea

00:26:37.960 is that people have to

00:26:39.060 have a hundred activities

00:26:40.380 for their kids

00:26:41.000 and child care

00:26:41.920 is so difficult.

00:26:42.940 But if you just

00:26:44.100 have a house

00:26:44.640 with a yard

00:26:45.180 the kids can just

00:26:45.840 be out in the yard

00:26:47.320 like bouncing around

00:26:48.220 on the trampoline

00:26:48.960 or playing with

00:26:50.060 playing in the backyard

00:26:50.880 and you don't even

00:26:51.460 have to supervise them much

00:26:52.680 because they can just play

00:26:53.880 and they're with an earshot

00:26:55.300 and it just

00:26:56.560 incredibly lowers

00:26:57.740 the burden

00:26:58.280 and there's also

00:26:58.780 like the psychological

00:26:59.580 effect of feeling

00:27:00.820 crowded.

00:27:01.680 The mouse experiment,

00:27:02.820 right?

00:27:03.400 Yeah, the mouse

00:27:04.080 utopia experiments

00:27:04.840 continue.

00:27:05.280 Yeah, yeah.

00:27:05.640 So the denser it is

00:27:06.820 like density itself

00:27:08.300 has a really negative

00:27:09.620 psychological impact.

00:27:11.480 And I don't think

00:27:12.420 that these dent centers

00:27:13.360 economically make sense

00:27:14.740 anymore.

00:27:16.360 They have become

00:27:17.220 economically

00:27:18.000 unrealistic

00:27:19.360 and a lot of people

00:27:20.100 are like, what?

00:27:21.020 No, there's so many

00:27:22.040 efficiency gains

00:27:23.060 and it's like, yeah,

00:27:23.800 but all the efficiency

00:27:24.760 gains are offset

00:27:25.700 by how progressive

00:27:26.580 they become

00:27:27.220 which ends up

00:27:28.080 creating these

00:27:28.660 giant bureaucracies

00:27:29.700 which ends up

00:27:30.660 making them

00:27:31.120 less efficient

00:27:32.020 than less urban areas.

00:27:34.460 So on paper

00:27:35.280 they look more efficient

00:27:36.400 but because they

00:27:37.840 allow and encourage

00:27:39.520 this ultra-progressive

00:27:41.880 mindset

00:27:42.340 they become

00:27:43.220 less efficient.

00:27:44.520 Yeah, so this is

00:27:45.020 something I want to show

00:27:45.660 here's another thing

00:27:46.660 here's just a quick

00:27:47.820 thing related to density

00:27:48.760 here.

00:27:49.040 This is a map of

00:27:49.620 South Korea by density

00:27:50.700 and here

00:27:52.200 people in South Korea

00:27:54.060 are concentrating

00:27:55.280 and people talk

00:27:56.820 about South Korea

00:27:57.380 oh, they have no choice

00:27:58.780 it's a tiny country

00:27:59.720 that's going to be dense.

00:28:01.340 No, it's actually

00:28:01.860 by choice

00:28:02.460 because so much

00:28:04.360 of South Korea

00:28:04.920 is like empty.

00:28:06.200 It's not just

00:28:06.600 by choice

00:28:06.960 it's by culture.

00:28:07.660 One of the weirdest

00:28:08.340 things about South Korea

00:28:09.400 is if you drive

00:28:10.420 outside of the major cities

00:28:11.760 when you see

00:28:13.400 the suburban towns

00:28:15.960 what you will see

00:28:17.500 is a cluster

00:28:18.260 of skyscrapers

00:28:19.540 next to each other

00:28:20.440 and then nothing else.

00:28:23.080 It is the most

00:28:24.180 bizarre thing

00:28:25.240 you have ever seen.

00:28:26.300 Yeah, three high-rises

00:28:27.180 and a mall complex.

00:28:28.980 So this is a terrible

00:28:30.360 this is

00:28:31.000 because

00:28:31.360 yeah, so this

00:28:33.100 I think Brian Kaplan

00:28:34.180 is making a big mistake

00:28:35.300 with his book.

00:28:35.980 I think it's

00:28:36.640 that's my position

00:28:37.660 and I'm sticking

00:28:38.240 for it for now

00:28:38.900 because

00:28:39.180 yeah, because

00:28:41.080 he's actually

00:28:41.620 a pronatalist

00:28:42.480 but he's got

00:28:43.820 he had that book

00:28:44.580 I think I even

00:28:45.100 have it on my shelf

00:28:45.940 Selfish Reasons

00:28:46.920 to Have More Kids

00:28:47.640 Yeah, here it is

00:28:48.260 right here

00:28:48.680 here we go

00:28:49.140 there it is

00:28:50.860 you're saying

00:28:52.480 that these buildings

00:28:53.500 will be here

00:28:54.080 for 100 years

00:28:55.300 no, they'll be

00:28:56.040 rotting in 100 years

00:28:56.920 look up like

00:28:57.640 Detroit Blight Porn

00:28:58.880 I'll add some to this

00:28:59.860 I know

00:29:00.640 this is an interesting

00:29:01.660 thing because actually

00:29:02.580 if you look at Japan

00:29:03.380 and I was just there

00:29:04.260 it's not

00:29:05.360 even though the TFR

00:29:07.880 in Tokyo

00:29:09.040 is the lowest

00:29:09.720 in all of Japan

00:29:10.860 like Tokyo

00:29:12.400 is full of people

00:29:13.200 because people are like

00:29:14.120 coming out from the

00:29:15.300 countryside

00:29:15.760 and it's actually

00:29:17.100 the country where

00:29:17.820 the countryside

00:29:18.420 where the fertility rate

00:29:19.640 is higher

00:29:20.280 that is empty

00:29:21.900 in Japan

00:29:22.620 because everybody

00:29:23.700 keeps flocking

00:29:25.060 to the cities

00:29:25.720 so actually

00:29:26.420 it's the countryside

00:29:27.360 where the fertility rate

00:29:28.380 is higher

00:29:28.740 that actually

00:29:29.220 will give you

00:29:29.940 the despair porn

00:29:30.800 in Japan

00:29:32.140 of all the rotting

00:29:33.920 houses

00:29:34.560 which is ironic

00:29:35.940 so it's not

00:29:36.720 necessarily true

00:29:37.780 that the places

00:29:39.000 that have the lowest

00:29:39.720 fertility rate

00:29:40.600 are going to be

00:29:41.020 the places

00:29:41.580 that empty out

00:29:42.220 because people

00:29:42.660 keep being drawn

00:29:44.220 to the city

00:29:44.700 so I think

00:29:45.240 if I was actually

00:29:46.380 if I was king of Korea

00:29:47.980 if they still

00:29:49.160 imagine they still

00:29:49.760 have kings

00:29:50.160 and for some reason

00:29:51.040 they make it me

00:29:51.680 like not so likely

00:29:53.200 but if I was

00:29:53.800 I would like

00:29:54.400 order everybody

00:29:55.600 into the countryside

00:29:56.440 and then I would

00:29:57.280 make sure

00:29:57.680 that nobody's

00:29:58.220 in the buildings

00:29:58.660 because I love Korea

00:29:59.740 and I don't want

00:30:00.100 to hurt anybody

00:30:00.620 but I would

00:30:01.040 then demolish

00:30:01.560 all these skyscrapers

00:30:03.260 because I really

00:30:04.000 believe that

00:30:05.200 these buildings

00:30:06.100 these tall

00:30:06.880 dense skyscrapers

00:30:09.320 are a big cause

00:30:10.400 of the ultra low

00:30:11.680 fertility

00:30:12.080 in all of

00:30:12.880 this is true

00:30:13.660 in Shanghai

00:30:14.080 this is true

00:30:14.500 in Beijing

00:30:14.860 this is true

00:30:15.340 in all these

00:30:15.760 Asian cities

00:30:16.160 so I think

00:30:17.260 we have to be

00:30:17.940 incredibly careful

00:30:19.100 because if you

00:30:19.660 throw up a high rise

00:30:20.820 that could be

00:30:22.200 drawing people in

00:30:22.860 for 100 years

00:30:23.500 and that could be

00:30:23.980 killing fertility

00:30:24.560 in a country

00:30:25.060 for 100 years

00:30:26.300 I don't think

00:30:28.120 we have to worry

00:30:28.600 about that

00:30:29.000 okay okay

00:30:29.540 I don't think

00:30:30.060 any of these

00:30:30.540 high rises

00:30:31.000 are going to be

00:30:31.680 fully operational

00:30:32.600 in 100 years

00:30:33.300 okay anyway

00:30:35.180 I'll move on

00:30:36.500 to some other

00:30:37.060 factors here

00:30:37.840 let's see

00:30:38.820 here's something

00:30:39.780 that is

00:30:40.320 completely

00:30:41.060 different

00:30:42.460 let me see

00:30:43.560 we've just been

00:30:44.420 to so many cities

00:30:45.060 at this point

00:30:45.640 Malcolm and I

00:30:46.260 where

00:30:46.780 the buildings

00:30:48.560 are

00:30:49.260 30 years old

00:30:50.880 and crumbling

00:30:52.300 so

00:30:53.680 it's scary

00:30:55.020 it's a critical

00:30:55.800 mass thing

00:30:56.260 we're going to

00:30:56.580 have a level

00:30:57.180 of urban blight

00:30:58.100 and nature

00:30:59.100 recapture

00:30:59.820 that people

00:31:00.320 can't imagine

00:31:01.000 and I think

00:31:01.820 what we'll be

00:31:03.020 dealing with

00:31:03.440 in 100 years

00:31:04.040 is rats

00:31:04.540 eating people's

00:31:05.180 babies in

00:31:05.820 Manhattan

00:31:06.140 that's going

00:31:06.980 to be a

00:31:07.500 major issue

00:31:08.180 okay so this

00:31:09.500 is a completely

00:31:10.240 new fertility

00:31:11.060 factor

00:31:11.580 okay so we're

00:31:12.040 looking at a

00:31:12.480 graph

00:31:12.740 share of young

00:31:13.640 people

00:31:14.040 aged 25 to

00:31:15.520 34

00:31:15.960 living with

00:31:16.780 parents

00:31:17.160 oh no

00:31:18.220 okay this is

00:31:19.440 painful

00:31:19.900 but you look

00:31:20.920 at these numbers

00:31:21.440 and it's like

00:31:21.920 insane

00:31:22.380 oh my gosh

00:31:23.180 in Spain

00:31:24.040 it's 37.2

00:31:26.180 I want to be

00:31:27.240 clear this is

00:31:28.140 inversely

00:31:29.520 correlated with

00:31:30.760 their economic

00:31:31.600 success office

00:31:32.640 yeah

00:31:33.040 oh no

00:31:34.460 oh no I'm

00:31:35.180 wrong here

00:31:35.680 no it's

00:31:36.480 correlated with

00:31:37.200 their economic

00:31:37.700 success

00:31:38.360 the more

00:31:39.400 economically

00:31:39.840 successful

00:31:40.420 sorry I

00:31:40.920 thought the

00:31:41.200 colors were

00:31:41.720 reversed

00:31:42.160 okay what

00:31:43.160 we're looking

00:31:43.500 at is the

00:31:43.880 share of young

00:31:44.380 people living

00:31:44.800 with their

00:31:45.120 parents

00:31:45.580 yeah

00:31:46.140 so it's

00:31:46.780 much lower

00:31:47.580 in the

00:31:47.880 economically

00:31:48.300 successful

00:31:48.840 regions

00:31:49.320 and much

00:31:49.840 higher

00:31:50.240 in places

00:31:50.740 like

00:31:51.180 I'd really

00:31:52.220 be interested

00:31:52.640 to

00:31:52.800 no Malcolm

00:31:53.280 you've got

00:31:53.720 it wrong

00:31:54.060 it's lower

00:31:55.200 in regions

00:31:55.900 let me explain

00:31:57.500 this map

00:31:57.960 what we're

00:31:58.180 seeing a

00:31:58.480 little bit

00:31:58.760 so this

00:31:59.880 sheds a lot

00:32:00.600 of light

00:32:01.020 on why

00:32:01.380 the fertility

00:32:01.920 in the

00:32:02.880 Catholic

00:32:03.200 countries

00:32:03.700 is so

00:32:04.580 low

00:32:04.900 so we

00:32:05.860 can see

00:32:06.220 Poland

00:32:06.740 we can

00:32:07.400 Poland

00:32:07.880 in Poland

00:32:09.220 43%

00:32:10.800 of young

00:32:11.920 people

00:32:12.280 age 25

00:32:13.080 to 34

00:32:13.620 live with

00:32:15.280 their parents

00:32:15.800 in Italy

00:32:16.380 it's 47%

00:32:18.040 in Spain

00:32:18.840 it's 37%

00:32:20.540 as compared

00:32:21.500 with like

00:32:22.260 in Sweden

00:32:22.820 it's 4%

00:32:23.760 so we can

00:32:24.420 see this

00:32:25.720 incredibly

00:32:26.380 dramatic

00:32:26.820 difference

00:32:27.280 across Europe

00:32:28.080 of and we

00:32:29.180 know as you

00:32:30.280 guys know

00:32:30.720 the fertility

00:32:31.360 rate in Spain

00:32:32.180 and Italy

00:32:33.040 and also

00:32:33.800 Poland

00:32:34.160 are incredibly

00:32:35.200 low

00:32:35.580 even though

00:32:36.340 they're Catholic

00:32:36.860 countries

00:32:37.380 and I would

00:32:38.360 argue

00:32:39.060 that this

00:32:40.340 ironically

00:32:41.300 having a

00:32:42.460 close family

00:32:43.060 culture

00:32:43.540 can be

00:32:44.720 bad

00:32:45.160 in the

00:32:46.060 in the

00:32:46.580 sense

00:32:46.920 that

00:32:48.100 parents

00:32:49.320 coddle

00:32:50.000 their

00:32:50.300 adult

00:32:51.180 I want

00:32:52.100 to see

00:32:52.480 I don't

00:32:52.820 know

00:32:52.920 I find

00:32:53.420 very little

00:32:54.040 interesting

00:32:54.520 about this

00:32:55.040 to be

00:32:55.380 honest

00:32:55.720 because

00:32:56.440 this only

00:32:57.480 is useful

00:32:57.960 to me

00:32:58.240 if I'm

00:32:58.500 seeing it

00:32:58.820 in contrast

00:32:59.360 with the

00:32:59.720 high fertility

00:33:00.320 countries

00:33:00.840 of equivalent

00:33:02.400 economic

00:33:03.440 success

00:33:04.040 where this

00:33:04.960 just looks

00:33:05.680 like a

00:33:05.960 graph of

00:33:06.400 economic

00:33:06.800 success

00:33:07.180 of each

00:33:07.560 country

00:33:07.920 if I

00:33:08.660 could

00:33:08.820 contrast

00:33:09.340 Greece

00:33:09.820 or Italy

00:33:10.320 with Turkey

00:33:11.040 or something

00:33:12.040 like that

00:33:12.480 would be

00:33:12.780 interesting

00:33:13.160 I don't

00:33:14.160 I do want

00:33:14.640 to highlight

00:33:15.000 one thing

00:33:15.760 though

00:33:15.980 which is

00:33:16.480 that another

00:33:16.980 thing that

00:33:17.380 correlates

00:33:17.980 with a

00:33:18.900 better

00:33:19.180 relationship

00:33:19.800 with parents

00:33:20.520 or parent

00:33:21.280 relationship

00:33:21.820 satisfaction

00:33:22.500 is I

00:33:24.800 think higher

00:33:25.280 depression

00:33:25.980 so I

00:33:27.360 think a lot

00:33:27.660 of parents

00:33:28.040 think I

00:33:28.640 need to

00:33:29.000 give my

00:33:29.360 kids this

00:33:29.880 amazing

00:33:30.460 childhood

00:33:31.780 they need

00:33:32.340 to be my

00:33:32.740 best friend

00:33:33.440 I would

00:33:34.200 love for

00:33:34.540 them to

00:33:34.820 continue to

00:33:35.300 live with

00:33:35.600 me I'll

00:33:35.960 support their

00:33:36.460 lifestyle

00:33:37.020 but what

00:33:38.160 you're

00:33:38.420 creating

00:33:38.800 while they

00:33:39.260 will really

00:33:40.180 genuinely

00:33:40.800 like you

00:33:41.320 more

00:33:41.540 they're

00:33:42.400 also

00:33:42.800 sadder

00:33:43.840 they're

00:33:44.480 not getting

00:33:44.920 married

00:33:45.360 to your

00:33:45.920 point

00:33:46.260 and they

00:33:47.420 are not

00:33:47.980 economically

00:33:48.440 successful

00:33:48.680 I understand

00:33:49.260 your point

00:33:49.740 and it is

00:33:50.500 a valid

00:33:50.780 point

00:33:51.060 but there

00:33:51.340 is

00:33:51.540 and it'll

00:33:52.320 take me

00:33:52.680 a minute

00:33:52.980 to I

00:33:53.480 don't want

00:33:53.720 to throw

00:33:54.140 up this

00:33:54.560 chart

00:33:54.780 because I'm

00:33:55.080 going to

00:33:55.220 have to

00:33:55.480 look for

00:33:55.800 it but

00:33:55.980 you see

00:33:56.420 the same

00:33:57.340 relationship

00:33:57.900 in the

00:33:58.360 United

00:33:58.600 States

00:33:59.160 where

00:34:00.340 in the

00:34:01.160 states

00:34:01.480 where people

00:34:02.120 leave

00:34:02.980 the nest

00:34:03.880 earlier

00:34:04.740 they all

00:34:05.600 have a

00:34:05.980 higher

00:34:06.320 fertility

00:34:07.020 rate

00:34:07.320 so this

00:34:07.620 is

00:34:07.880 like

00:34:08.540 the fly

00:34:09.240 over

00:34:09.460 country

00:34:09.960 very

00:34:10.620 interesting

00:34:11.040 you can

00:34:11.340 send it to us

00:34:12.060 afterwards

00:34:12.440 and I'll

00:34:12.700 add it

00:34:12.920 and you can

00:34:13.420 find it

00:34:13.740 very easily

00:34:14.260 on my

00:34:14.580 Twitter

00:34:14.840 if you just

00:34:15.680 search for

00:34:16.680 I think

00:34:17.300 even better

00:34:18.020 drive people

00:34:18.640 to your

00:34:18.880 Twitter

00:34:19.100 yeah

00:34:19.420 yeah

00:34:19.720 if you search

00:34:20.680 launch

00:34:21.360 at more

00:34:22.240 births

00:34:22.560 you search

00:34:22.860 launch

00:34:23.180 because

00:34:23.400 I talk

00:34:24.300 about it

00:34:24.600 as failure

00:34:25.060 to launch

00:34:25.580 country

00:34:26.400 like in

00:34:26.820 the flyover

00:34:27.320 states

00:34:27.680 where

00:34:27.940 in the

00:34:28.460 states

00:34:28.700 where people

00:34:29.220 get out

00:34:29.900 of the

00:34:30.120 house

00:34:30.380 earlier

00:34:30.900 and are

00:34:32.160 on their

00:34:32.520 own

00:34:32.760 earlier

00:34:33.080 they have

00:34:33.400 a much

00:34:33.600 higher

00:34:33.800 fertility

00:34:34.240 it's been

00:34:36.440 great to

00:34:36.880 have you

00:34:37.160 on

00:34:37.420 I love

00:34:37.880 all these

00:34:38.200 thoughts

00:34:38.560 I love

00:34:38.940 all these

00:34:39.220 graphs

00:34:39.580 I know

00:34:39.880 our audience

00:34:40.320 will

00:34:40.700 you can

00:34:41.760 join our

00:34:42.440 discord server

00:34:43.220 too

00:34:43.500 which

00:34:43.680 apparently

00:34:44.060 some fans

00:34:45.120 started

00:34:45.460 and now

00:34:45.780 it's

00:34:45.920 actually

00:34:46.180 like

00:34:46.420 bopping

00:34:46.860 is

00:34:47.260 pernatalist

00:34:47.840 conversation

00:34:48.340 which is

00:34:48.680 cool

00:34:48.960 everyone

00:34:49.780 lists

00:34:50.200 themselves

00:34:50.580 with how

00:34:50.880 many kids

00:34:51.240 they have

00:34:51.580 next to

00:34:51.920 their names

00:34:52.440 this happened

00:34:53.520 organically

00:34:54.220 I didn't

00:34:54.580 ask for

00:34:54.980 this

00:34:55.280 so you'd

00:34:56.020 be high

00:34:56.580 stat

00:34:56.980 you got

00:34:57.280 six kids

00:34:58.320 yeah

00:34:58.860 you're living

00:34:59.460 the dream

00:35:00.040 yeah

00:35:00.680 I have

00:35:01.320 more factors

00:35:02.500 that we can

00:35:02.880 share

00:35:03.140 and we can

00:35:03.440 talk more

00:35:03.880 but I guess

00:35:04.420 we're reaching

00:35:04.780 the end

00:35:05.220 of our time

00:35:05.680 here

00:35:05.980 if you had

00:35:06.780 a few more

00:35:07.320 graphs

00:35:07.580 you wanted

00:35:07.840 to discuss

00:35:08.300 quickly

00:35:08.700 pull up

00:35:09.200 the ones

00:35:10.000 that you're

00:35:10.280 most interested

00:35:10.720 in

00:35:11.020 let's talk

00:35:12.740 about a couple

00:35:13.240 more facts

00:35:13.680 I have one

00:35:14.140 more

00:35:14.380 I have

00:35:15.060 another

00:35:15.460 spicy take

00:35:16.780 here

00:35:16.960 so you may

00:35:17.500 appreciate

00:35:17.980 this one

00:35:18.700 all right

00:35:19.720 let's take a

00:35:20.400 look at this

00:35:20.980 all right

00:35:21.260 so we're

00:35:21.560 looking at

00:35:22.320 the average

00:35:23.600 so this is a graph

00:35:23.820 by Ayla

00:35:24.940 oh

00:35:25.960 this looks

00:35:27.580 familiar

00:35:28.240 yes

00:35:29.700 this is her

00:35:31.180 own

00:35:31.520 data

00:35:32.700 and it's

00:35:33.120 great that

00:35:33.480 she's honest

00:35:34.080 about it

00:35:34.520 but this is

00:35:35.040 and there's

00:35:35.800 other data

00:35:36.280 that backs

00:35:36.780 up this

00:35:37.620 same

00:35:37.980 trend

00:35:39.140 where

00:35:39.540 actually

00:35:40.360 the more

00:35:40.800 partners

00:35:41.400 somebody

00:35:42.480 has

00:35:43.160 the lower

00:35:44.480 their fertility

00:35:45.580 is

00:35:46.040 and actually

00:35:47.200 and I can

00:35:47.800 also just

00:35:50.060 being poly

00:35:50.800 regardless of

00:35:52.000 your partner

00:35:52.620 count

00:35:53.060 seems to

00:35:54.240 make

00:35:55.020 yeah

00:35:55.820 but I also

00:35:56.560 see something

00:35:57.380 here that you

00:35:57.860 might not be

00:35:58.280 noticing is the

00:35:59.140 jump in number

00:35:59.940 of kids in

00:36:00.620 poly relationships

00:36:01.380 between 45

00:36:03.420 and 45

00:36:05.460 and 50

00:36:06.140 which implies

00:36:07.320 that they're

00:36:07.920 counting kids

00:36:08.680 that are brought

00:36:09.180 in from

00:36:09.720 alternate

00:36:10.220 partners and

00:36:11.280 relationships

00:36:11.960 they're

00:36:12.980 considering

00:36:13.500 their kids

00:36:14.220 I know

00:36:14.580 she said

00:36:14.900 is your

00:36:15.400 partner

00:36:15.720 but I bet

00:36:16.220 that's what's

00:36:16.580 causing that

00:36:16.980 so you think

00:36:17.500 that poly

00:36:18.000 is even

00:36:18.320 artificially

00:36:18.920 inflated

00:36:19.400 in this

00:36:19.800 graph

00:36:20.180 yeah

00:36:20.640 because

00:36:21.040 almost

00:36:21.720 no woman

00:36:22.240 is having

00:36:22.580 kids

00:36:22.860 over 45

00:36:23.680 oh that's

00:36:25.060 fair

00:36:25.380 and this

00:36:26.140 is showing

00:36:26.560 a big

00:36:27.160 jump

00:36:27.540 in the

00:36:27.860 number

00:36:28.040 of kids

00:36:28.380 per poly

00:36:28.860 relationship

00:36:29.420 after the

00:36:29.960 age of

00:36:30.220 40

00:36:30.380 yeah

00:36:30.580 and I

00:36:30.820 want to

00:36:31.260 I'll

00:36:32.000 stop

00:36:32.220 sharing

00:36:32.440 this

00:36:32.600 and share

00:36:33.080 one more

00:36:33.420 chart

00:36:33.700 here

00:36:33.940 that's

00:36:34.500 related

00:36:34.820 to this

00:36:35.340 so

00:36:36.200 here we

00:36:36.860 go

00:36:37.200 and I

00:36:39.340 think

00:36:39.500 a high

00:36:40.260 correlatory

00:36:40.760 factor

00:36:41.120 here

00:36:41.380 we're

00:36:41.840 talking

00:36:42.240 about

00:36:42.620 the

00:36:43.000 depressing

00:36:43.560 effect

00:36:44.680 of

00:36:44.960 multiple

00:36:45.340 partners

00:36:45.820 or more

00:36:46.520 partners

00:36:46.980 on fertility

00:36:47.740 is what

00:36:48.680 are you

00:36:48.860 living for

00:36:49.340 in life

00:36:49.760 are you

00:36:50.120 living for

00:36:51.060 a broader

00:36:51.720 purpose

00:36:52.120 or your

00:36:52.460 value set

00:36:53.040 or are you

00:36:53.500 living for

00:36:53.960 fun and

00:36:54.340 pleasure

00:36:54.660 and if

00:36:55.380 you're

00:36:55.500 living for

00:36:55.940 fun and

00:36:56.220 pleasure

00:36:56.460 I could

00:36:56.780 see

00:36:56.940 partner

00:36:57.220 count

00:36:57.440 being

00:36:57.620 higher

00:36:57.940 and kids

00:36:58.440 being

00:36:58.640 lower

00:36:58.940 because

00:36:59.280 that's

00:36:59.620 just

00:36:59.780 how it

00:37:00.160 works

00:37:00.540 yeah

00:37:00.840 that's

00:37:01.320 right

00:37:01.500 but this

00:37:01.840 is a

00:37:02.140 trend

00:37:02.580 that is

00:37:03.400 not

00:37:03.680 new

00:37:04.140 it's

00:37:04.920 actually

00:37:05.180 this is

00:37:05.460 a chart

00:37:05.780 you can

00:37:06.120 look at

00:37:06.840 the number

00:37:07.180 of children

00:37:07.840 this is

00:37:10.060 for men

00:37:10.560 this is

00:37:11.520 the number

00:37:11.880 of children

00:37:12.380 by the

00:37:12.820 number

00:37:13.040 by partner

00:37:13.820 count

00:37:14.160 since age

00:37:14.740 18

00:37:15.280 and the

00:37:16.660 people

00:37:17.520 who think

00:37:18.500 that it's

00:37:19.080 the players

00:37:20.120 it's the

00:37:21.160 like the

00:37:21.680 mac daddies

00:37:22.260 who have

00:37:22.800 tons of

00:37:23.540 partners

00:37:23.960 have the

00:37:24.540 highest

00:37:24.760 fertility

00:37:25.080 that's

00:37:25.420 not true

00:37:25.920 it's

00:37:26.520 actually

00:37:26.880 the highest

00:37:28.040 fertility

00:37:28.460 are the

00:37:29.000 people that

00:37:29.440 had very

00:37:29.800 few

00:37:30.040 partners

00:37:30.460 and the

00:37:31.680 I think

00:37:32.760 a big

00:37:33.200 correlation

00:37:33.720 for this

00:37:34.740 is early

00:37:35.380 marriage

00:37:35.800 so the

00:37:37.780 earlier

00:37:38.300 one of the

00:37:39.800 most important

00:37:40.380 factors for

00:37:40.940 high fertility

00:37:41.580 is early

00:37:42.600 marriage

00:37:42.920 and if you

00:37:43.260 want to

00:37:43.580 understand

00:37:44.160 the baby

00:37:45.180 boom

00:37:45.560 which 1946

00:37:47.000 to 1964

00:37:48.000 baby boom

00:37:48.820 like the

00:37:49.260 OG baby

00:37:49.820 boom

00:37:50.160 what caused

00:37:51.120 that

00:37:51.460 a big

00:37:52.260 part of

00:37:52.680 that

00:37:52.900 was that

00:37:53.420 people were

00:37:53.900 just getting

00:37:54.400 married

00:37:54.840 young

00:37:56.140 and in

00:37:57.680 high numbers

00:37:58.360 and so

00:37:59.580 that so

00:38:00.380 getting married

00:38:01.080 young would

00:38:01.560 be correlated

00:38:02.540 of course

00:38:03.000 with a lower

00:38:03.460 partner count

00:38:04.120 so that

00:38:04.940 may be a

00:38:05.340 big part

00:38:05.700 of what

00:38:05.900 we're

00:38:06.060 seeing

00:38:06.340 but this

00:38:06.760 people who

00:38:07.580 think

00:38:07.880 that they

00:38:08.860 have to

00:38:09.380 be a

00:38:10.180 player

00:38:10.420 with tons

00:38:10.860 of partners

00:38:11.380 in order

00:38:11.920 to have

00:38:12.740 a lot

00:38:12.960 of kids

00:38:13.300 have it

00:38:13.700 if you're

00:38:14.620 sleeping

00:38:14.900 as lots

00:38:15.220 of people

00:38:15.520 and you're

00:38:15.840 not having

00:38:16.200 kids with

00:38:16.560 them that's

00:38:16.880 just masturbation

00:38:17.720 with another

00:38:18.120 person's body

00:38:18.840 I had Simone

00:38:19.500 tweet recently

00:38:20.860 non-reproductive

00:38:22.300 sex is a

00:38:22.960 fetish

00:38:23.400 yeah

00:38:23.800 it is

00:38:25.100 it is a

00:38:25.640 fetish

00:38:25.920 because it's

00:38:26.420 something that

00:38:26.880 you find

00:38:27.220 arousing that

00:38:27.760 has nothing

00:38:28.100 to do with

00:38:28.480 reproduction

00:38:28.920 and so

00:38:29.720 that's

00:38:30.080 because people

00:38:30.860 always accuse

00:38:31.400 us

00:38:31.620 they're like

00:38:31.860 oh you have

00:38:32.200 a breeding

00:38:32.580 fetish

00:38:33.020 and this

00:38:33.260 one it's

00:38:33.900 disgusting

00:38:34.500 that your

00:38:34.920 world perspective

00:38:35.580 is the only

00:38:36.480 thing that can

00:38:36.920 motivate someone

00:38:37.660 is what

00:38:38.040 arouses them

00:38:38.760 which is

00:38:39.700 a lot of

00:38:40.400 ultra leftist

00:38:41.080 world views

00:38:41.660 like their

00:38:42.080 entire identity

00:38:42.880 is based

00:38:43.280 around what

00:38:43.640 arouses them

00:38:44.340 and so they

00:38:45.120 assume that

00:38:45.660 everyone else's

00:38:46.300 must be

00:38:46.600 because they're

00:38:47.060 sociopaths

00:38:47.780 and that's

00:38:48.040 the way

00:38:48.240 sociopaths

00:38:48.840 see the

00:38:49.080 world

00:38:49.400 or at least

00:38:50.140 narcissists

00:38:50.780 do

00:38:51.020 but also

00:38:52.600 what you're

00:38:52.960 seeing here

00:38:53.480 oh but

00:38:54.220 three also

00:38:55.260 all of our

00:38:55.780 children were

00:38:56.440 created through

00:38:57.000 IVF so

00:38:57.780 the breeding

00:38:58.480 fetish

00:38:58.880 kind of goes

00:38:59.500 out the

00:38:59.780 window

00:38:59.980 yeah and

00:39:01.060 that's

00:39:01.920 something that

00:39:02.320 I wish

00:39:02.900 conservatives

00:39:03.840 would let

00:39:04.720 go of

00:39:05.000 this hang

00:39:05.640 up about

00:39:06.100 they mostly

00:39:06.720 are it's

00:39:07.460 interesting the

00:39:07.960 conservatives that

00:39:08.560 have a hang

00:39:08.920 up about

00:39:09.300 this like

00:39:09.820 they're not

00:39:10.140 having kids

00:39:10.880 who did we

00:39:11.480 meet at the

00:39:12.000 prenatalist

00:39:12.580 conference like

00:39:13.140 pat buchanan

00:39:13.960 who had a

00:39:14.320 big hang

00:39:14.640 up of this

00:39:15.180 and all of

00:39:16.060 his kids

00:39:16.580 have been

00:39:17.020 victim of

00:39:17.560 the catholic

00:39:18.040 priesthood

00:39:18.600 and

00:39:18.900 pat buchanan

00:39:20.140 was not there

00:39:20.700 at the

00:39:20.900 natal

00:39:21.080 conference

00:39:21.340 who am i

00:39:21.860 thinking of

00:39:22.280 we were

00:39:22.860 talking about

00:39:23.420 pat fagan

00:39:24.300 no

00:39:24.700 pat fagan i

00:39:25.680 don't know

00:39:25.880 i feel like

00:39:26.440 it was a

00:39:26.760 catholic guy

00:39:28.240 yeah but

00:39:29.020 we got in a

00:39:31.060 it was like a

00:39:31.560 hardcore old

00:39:32.520 catholic guy

00:39:33.360 and he had

00:39:34.100 three kids

00:39:34.780 and every single

00:39:35.320 one of them

00:39:35.640 had joined in

00:39:36.080 the priesthood

00:39:36.740 and he has

00:39:37.500 no

00:39:37.740 pat fagan

00:39:38.540 because he's

00:39:38.960 got eight

00:39:39.360 kids he

00:39:39.720 was i

00:39:40.180 remember because

00:39:40.800 every they went

00:39:41.480 around the room

00:39:41.900 asking who has

00:39:42.480 the most kids

00:39:42.940 and he won

00:39:43.400 he like oh

00:39:44.600 it might have

00:39:45.380 been i guess i

00:39:46.460 assumed was all

00:39:47.420 of the kids that

00:39:47.940 he was mentioning

00:39:48.380 who joined the

00:39:48.920 priesthood that

00:39:49.520 maybe he had

00:39:50.040 so he might

00:39:50.860 still have some

00:39:51.400 that are having

00:39:51.840 kids okay so

00:39:52.660 he just tithes

00:39:53.320 10 it's fine

00:39:54.520 not but it's

00:39:57.760 these cultural

00:39:58.380 groups as i've

00:39:59.280 mentioned the

00:39:59.860 cultural groups

00:40:00.560 that are being

00:40:01.520 most hit of the

00:40:02.660 religious communities

00:40:03.560 by fertility

00:40:04.160 collapse are

00:40:05.480 catholic christians

00:40:06.800 and orthodox

00:40:07.600 christians are

00:40:08.620 the two highest

00:40:09.440 hit of all

00:40:10.220 western cultural

00:40:11.120 groups jews

00:40:12.400 aren't hit that

00:40:12.900 bad protestants

00:40:13.840 are hit a little

00:40:14.340 but not that

00:40:15.100 bad muslims

00:40:16.500 are hit actually

00:40:17.240 worse than

00:40:18.000 protestants or

00:40:18.680 jews but still

00:40:20.020 do a little better

00:40:20.680 than catholic and

00:40:21.380 orthodox communities

00:40:22.340 but the communities

00:40:23.520 that motivated

00:40:24.340 high fertility

00:40:25.080 through these

00:40:25.860 strict restrictions

00:40:27.300 around like

00:40:29.100 when life

00:40:29.600 begins

00:40:30.160 condoms

00:40:31.340 etc

00:40:31.840 don't appear

00:40:33.220 to be able

00:40:33.620 to motivate

00:40:34.020 fertility anymore

00:40:34.940 in a modern

00:40:35.400 ecosystem

00:40:35.960 yeah it depends

00:40:37.120 with catholic

00:40:37.780 fertility

00:40:38.200 it's hard to

00:40:39.920 tell and it's

00:40:40.440 hard to tell

00:40:40.800 where things

00:40:41.220 are going

00:40:41.580 because you

00:40:42.020 have a big

00:40:42.480 contrast

00:40:43.020 also between

00:40:44.460 catholics

00:40:45.140 in europe

00:40:46.260 and catholics

00:40:47.020 in america

00:40:47.800 and i don't

00:40:48.460 know if

00:40:48.760 maybe catholics

00:40:49.700 in america

00:40:50.340 i need to be

00:40:52.060 clear classics

00:40:52.680 in europe

00:40:53.300 and in latin

00:40:54.180 america

00:40:54.520 which are

00:40:54.920 both collapsing

00:40:55.700 that is true

00:40:57.240 that is true

00:40:57.920 now somehow

00:40:58.660 in in the united

00:41:00.360 states it seems

00:41:01.080 catholics have a

00:41:01.960 higher fertility

00:41:02.660 and i don't know

00:41:04.040 if it may have

00:41:04.680 to do with the

00:41:05.120 fact that they're

00:41:05.640 a minority

00:41:06.320 in america

00:41:07.960 that could be it

00:41:09.220 yeah

00:41:09.500 so being a

00:41:10.180 minority

00:41:10.720 we think that's

00:41:12.040 a big factor

00:41:12.720 yeah yeah

00:41:13.520 we think that's

00:41:14.060 a big factor

00:41:14.680 which means

00:41:15.160 the sense of

00:41:16.060 being a renegade

00:41:16.820 like you're not

00:41:17.260 gonna feel like

00:41:18.100 a renegade

00:41:18.660 if you're a

00:41:19.040 catholic in

00:41:19.520 italy

00:41:19.880 i'm feeling

00:41:20.440 like there's

00:41:21.080 something to

00:41:21.540 fight for

00:41:21.920 because you

00:41:22.540 are the other

00:41:23.260 surrounded by

00:41:24.100 very different

00:41:24.860 group

00:41:25.180 yeah

00:41:25.460 in hostile

00:41:25.960 land

00:41:26.440 which is

00:41:27.220 interesting

00:41:27.600 because a lot

00:41:28.140 of conservatives

00:41:28.620 fight for the

00:41:29.480 opposite of that

00:41:30.060 they're like we

00:41:30.560 need like one

00:41:31.180 country one

00:41:31.740 people and it's

00:41:32.340 that's the exact

00:41:33.460 opposite of what's

00:41:34.340 going to succeed

00:41:34.820 yeah it does not

00:41:35.380 correlate with

00:41:35.920 success fertility

00:41:36.700 wise

00:41:37.220 yeah a lot of

00:41:39.000 things are changing

00:41:39.740 a lot of as you

00:41:41.080 have said

00:41:41.560 culture cultures

00:41:42.600 that that have

00:41:43.220 been in this

00:41:43.720 situation for a

00:41:44.620 while can learn

00:41:45.480 to to fortify

00:41:47.080 themselves like

00:41:47.720 one example

00:41:49.820 that's been

00:41:50.520 exploding of a

00:41:51.980 high fertility

00:41:52.540 subculture is

00:41:53.640 homeschool families

00:41:54.480 this is hardly

00:41:55.280 talked about but

00:41:55.920 actually and

00:41:57.060 homeschool families

00:41:58.380 are a renegade

00:41:59.180 culture that

00:41:59.860 wait have you

00:42:00.580 do you have

00:42:00.980 statistics on

00:42:01.620 homeschooling

00:42:02.080 fertility rates

00:42:02.700 let me see if i

00:42:03.720 can pull that up

00:42:04.420 when you finally

00:42:05.860 remove people from

00:42:07.380 sterilizing educational

00:42:09.300 platforms and of

00:42:10.080 course you've talked

00:42:10.680 about that when we in

00:42:11.600 our previous

00:42:11.960 conversation where at

00:42:13.640 public schools people

00:42:14.420 are literally being

00:42:15.380 taught to see

00:42:17.700 population growth and

00:42:18.740 reproductive

00:42:19.220 reproduction as a

00:42:20.980 bad thing that hurts

00:42:21.740 the environment is it

00:42:23.280 any wonder that

00:42:24.180 going to homeschool

00:42:24.940 suddenly helps you

00:42:26.700 out all right here

00:42:27.760 i'm gonna share

00:42:28.560 something relate some

00:42:29.680 data related to

00:42:30.460 homeschooling right

00:42:31.240 now nice all right

00:42:33.320 because i do have

00:42:34.220 that and you this is

00:42:34.960 one thing that's

00:42:35.460 really wonderful about

00:42:36.220 my feed is that you

00:42:37.600 can search at more

00:42:38.500 births for whatever

00:42:39.800 topic and there's a

00:42:41.020 good chance that i will

00:42:41.800 have written about it

00:42:42.700 now you are the kind

00:42:43.660 of the reference point

00:42:44.560 encyclopedia if you

00:42:46.020 need i really want to

00:42:47.440 40 oh this is

00:42:48.780 fascinating yeah 48% of

00:42:50.640 homeschooling

00:42:51.140 homeschools have

00:42:51.860 three or more

00:42:53.540 children

00:42:54.100 yeah this is a very

00:42:57.860 important thing you we

00:42:58.940 it turns out like you

00:43:00.540 need to have a norm

00:43:01.580 of three children as

00:43:04.040 like the baseline in

00:43:05.620 order to just have

00:43:06.420 replacement fertility

00:43:07.320 because in our world

00:43:08.140 today now

00:43:08.900 approximately one

00:43:10.360 third of young

00:43:12.260 people will have zero

00:43:13.200 children

00:43:13.620 it's also compelling

00:43:15.560 stat because

00:43:16.280 homeschooling is not

00:43:17.660 easier when you have

00:43:19.100 more kids per se so

00:43:21.180 presumably it's harder

00:43:22.460 so yeah you have more

00:43:23.380 kids to educate you

00:43:24.260 would think that home

00:43:25.040 that parents of more

00:43:26.200 children would be more

00:43:27.120 motivated to send them

00:43:28.320 out send them to public

00:43:29.360 school not have to pay

00:43:30.300 for them use food

00:43:31.140 services these are

00:43:31.820 great stats

00:43:32.660 definitely be repeating

00:43:34.640 and it has been so good

00:43:36.080 to have you on and

00:43:36.720 people should definitely

00:43:37.300 check out your profile

00:43:38.160 yeah on twitter it's

00:43:39.440 like the encyclopedia of

00:43:40.920 demographic collapse

00:43:41.860 graphs stats

00:43:42.900 arguments really great

00:43:44.100 threads so definitely

00:43:45.380 yeah but and i also want

00:43:46.700 to point out that it's

00:43:47.820 not merely collapse

00:43:48.940 porn it's not there's a

00:43:50.640 lot of there's a lot of

00:43:51.840 levers and there's a lot

00:43:52.740 of ways to increase

00:43:53.760 fertility and every little

00:43:54.820 bit helps

00:43:55.400 yeah because getting

00:43:57.060 from like 1.3 to 1.5

00:44:01.000 or 1.6 makes such a

00:44:02.480 dramatic difference for

00:44:03.300 the future because it

00:44:04.180 all compounds

00:44:04.960 totally agree

00:44:06.140 yeah it's been great to

00:44:07.600 have you on

00:44:08.160 yeah thanks again for

00:44:09.100 coming on this was

00:44:09.860 really fun

00:44:10.460 and thanks for your

00:44:11.320 time have a spectacular

00:44:12.860 day

00:44:13.460 yeah thank you so much

00:44:14.840 you guys also thank

00:44:16.740 you thank you it's been

00:44:17.620 wonderful ciao a citizen

00:44:20.520 has the courage to make

00:44:22.540 the safety of the human

00:44:23.480 race their personal

00:44:24.360 responsibility

Based Camp - June 13, 2024

Why Fertility is Collapsing： Shocking Stats with @MoreBirths

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