Why is Kamala Bleeding Minority Voters？ (Black, Hispanic, Arab, & Asian)
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Summary
In this episode, Simone and I discuss the growing trend of young Black voters turning to the Republican Party, and why this might be a problem for the Democratic Party. We discuss why this is happening, and what it means for the future of American politics.
Transcript
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Hello, Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today, we are going to be talking about
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a phenomenon this election cycle where ethnic minorities have been moving very quickly more
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and more to voting Republican, specifically in the changeover from the Biden running for office
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to the Kamala running for office, which is really interesting to me because I think a lot of people
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would assume, oh, now we've got a multiracial, a Black Indian woman who's voting for office.
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Obviously, she'll get more, like Obama did, more of the Black vote to show up than historically did.
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And yet we are seeing the exact opposite and not just the Black vote, but basically across the board.
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Wasn't that the turn for our polling station? We know a shorter route to our Democratic
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polling station. You know how us Democrats like a shortcut, like government spending to prop up
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the economy. Nothing more we love than those federal programs. You two are Democrats, aren't
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you? What? Of course we are. You see the color of our skin, don't you? How could we not blindly vote
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Democratic? Would you like to know more? So we are, one, going to go over the numbers for each ethnic
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group. We're going to go over what might be causing this, and we are going to go over what this means
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for the future of American politics. That is so cool. Let's do this.
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So in the 2020 election, Biden won approximately 92% of the Black vote. Only 8% of the Black vote
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didn't vote for Biden. That's insane. That is very impressive. Yeah. Current polling shows Hamill
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leading Trump 78% to 15% among Black voters. Huge difference. Wow. 26% of Black men aged 18 to 40
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said they would vote for Trump in the latest Gen Forward poll compared to 12% of Black women in the
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same age group. This represents a major shift from 2020. And if you look at the polls that I sent you,
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so this is mostly happening in young Black men, we see a really interesting phenomenon.
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Now people think that Black voters are a monolith. In fact, Black Republicans alone are an extremely
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diverse group of people. Which is that with Black voters, unlike pretty much any other voter demographic
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you're going to look at, the younger they are, and it's proportional to their age, the more pro-Republican
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they are. And it is increasing with each generation here. So here we can look at two different polls.
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One is looking at different age groups, and it asks them, please assess your feelings towards Donald
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Trump on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is cold and 10 is very warm. And you see, of the very warm
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category, if you look at Black voters over 65, it's only 4%. If you look at Black voters 18 to 29,
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it's 29%. What is going on? And just so people can get an idea of what this looks like in sort of a
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tiered way, it's 4% for the 65 plus. To the 45, 64, it's 10%. For the 30, 44, it's 19%. And then,
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you know, for the last group, it's 29%. And you see the same thing in terms of the number who feel neutral
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to him, it's significantly increasing over time. With the young age group, it's 41% feel neutral to
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him. Only 7% in the oldest age group. And in the youngest age group, only 28% have a cold opinion
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of him, while 87% of the oldest age group do. Isn't that why? And this is increasing still with
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every generation. So I would expect it to be more of the next generation, more of the next generation,
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more of the next generation. Yeah, which is tempered, I guess, by young voter turnout being lower.
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But that's still very impressive. Well, it does mean a permanent political shift. And-
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Yes. Let's go to this next poll here. How welcoming do you think the Republican Party
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is to Black people? And again, you have the exact same thing. If you're looking at not welcoming
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at all, it's 57% of the 65 plus group. But of the under 29 group, that's only 17% who have that
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perception. And if you look at the extremely welcoming category, 3% of the over 65 group,
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11% of the 18 to 29 group. Wow. That's great. Yeah. Well, and if you look at somewhat welcoming
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in the old age group, it's only 7%. In the young age group, it's 31%. Well, I mean, is this part of
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the whole youth political divide between women and men, whereby men are just getting increasingly
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conservative and women are getting less? And could it be that women, to a certain extent, are even just
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shoving men into a more conservative position through their mental and cultural toxicity?
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I think it is. So I watched a bunch of interviews with Black individuals on why they're voting for
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Trump. So I could say, you know, from my perception, I'd say, well, I assume that the racist way that
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Democrats keep talking about ethnic minorities is probably a pretty big play here. Like when
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Hope Not Hate was talking to us, they go, you say you support exceptional people having more kids
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in secret, but on your website, you say you support Hispanics having more kids. And I was like,
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I don't see a contradiction there. Why do you see a contradiction there? Or Obama's recent thing,
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when Black voters, he goes, he's like, well, we have a huge problem with young male Black voters,
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and it's because they won't vote for a woman. You know, they're very misogynistic.
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And I was like, that seems like a very racist opinion, and not at all what I've seen anyone
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say. And so I think part of it is this increasingly racist attitude, you know, if you don't vote for
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me, you ain't Black, like this stealing of the Black identity, and then removing anyone. Like,
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imagine you felt that way. Like, people said to you, you couldn't identify as whatever your
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core, like ethnic or whatever identity was, because you didn't hold ex-political positions,
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which is what they're always saying. Like, whenever, you know, there's a famous Black
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Republican or something like that, they're like, well, they don't really count as Black,
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Here's what's so interesting, though, is that I'm picking up on this for another episode.
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Right now, I'm trying to do research on what Black Lives Matter as an organization raised,
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and what they did with that money. And one of the things that I'm seeing they did in 2020,
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sort of at their height, when they got the most attention, was create a PAC and try to influence
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the vote. And they decided that one of the most important areas where they needed to exert pressure
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was on Black male voters, because they felt that they had the lowest turnout and the lowest
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engagement. So their work really focused on engaging them and getting them to vote.
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But I feel like this very fact that there is this perception and I guess acknowledgement of lower
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Black male voter engagement for obviously Democratic candidates and causes, maybe kind of indicates,
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guys, maybe they aren't really on your side. Maybe they're not really Democrats. Maybe
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something you're pitching to them isn't resonating. Maybe this whole trans free housing thing and
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community work thing isn't really what they're into right now.
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Yeah, well, so historically, when older Black voters would vote Republican,
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the thing that drove them to do it was two things. One is, is that they didn't feel like the policies
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were actually supporting the Black community. You know, this is what you have was like Clarence Thomas,
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and you know, he's very anti things like affirmative action, because he felt it hurt the Black community,
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right? And a lot of older Blacks would side was Republican sometimes, because they agreed with
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them on social issues, whether it was, you know, being more resistant to LGBT stuff, whether it was,
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which the Black community is generally not very pro, when contrasted with white voters, whether it was
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being more conservative on abortion, whether it was being more conservative, it was on social issues.
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What's very interesting is the shift in the Black community now among young Blacks to being more
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Republican is not about being more conservative on social issues. It appears to be predominantly
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twofold, one, or I'd say threefold. One, they feel like we've been trying this Democrat thing forever,
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they don't actually seem to care about us, they never actually seem to do anything for us.
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And it appears that the Republicans actually try when they get in office for us. And so that was one
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thing. The second thing was they appear to be more fiscally conservative than previous generations,
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and I'll run through some quotes here that seem to indicate this to me, but it appears that they're
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mostly voting for Republicans, despite more conservative social policies, because they do not
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believe in what the Democrats have done to the economy, or what the Democrats have given them
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opportunities. And then the final category here that we see is they are voting more Republican
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because, I can't remember the final point I had, but you were going to say something?
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I think the thing is that Black men aren't interested in being someone's bitch. They're
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interested in succeeding and excelling and being exceptional. And the problem is that even now,
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as the Democrat Party is trying to cater to their interests, they're like, oh, don't worry,
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we'll give you handouts and special treatment, and you'll be, you know, it's okay, you know, just like,
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like, but they're being very condescending. And I think that's not, that's not how these people
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identify. Like, these are, these are people who want, yeah, they want to start businesses. And I
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think that that, you know, there's some attempt to cater to that, but they're like, oh, you know,
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we'll give you loans that will forgive because we know you can't pay them off. Like, it's just so
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insulting. It is deeply insulting. Like, I agree.
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Like crypto, don't worry, we'll support it. Whereas like over here, Donald Trump is like,
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here's my mean coin. I'm going to like pump and dump it. There was like, yeah, Trump, you do you,
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you know, like, there's just a very different, but Trump gets it. Also, like when I look at,
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like a lot of really popular, like primarily Black cast TV shows, or like, I guess you could say like
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Black demographic targeted TV shows, I guess like some of them are like looking at lower economic
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rungs to society, but a lot of them are just looking at extreme levels of wealth. Like it's
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aspirational. And I think the other problem is that when the Democrat party caters to Black voters,
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they're all about like, oh, poverty. And that's not aspirational. Like no one wants to vote for that.
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And a lot of people complain about, oh, well, you know, poor, uneducated people vote for Republicans
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and vote for low taxes because they expect to be rich someday. How pathetic. But I think that's
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where a lot of us are. Do you remember the Biden gaffe where he's like, well, I want this policy to
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work for both rich people and Black people. Come on! I did not. Oh my gosh. Yeah, that was one of his
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gaffes. We have this notion that somehow if you're poor, you cannot do it. Poor kids are just as bright
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and just as talented as white kids. Yeah, what a slip. I mean, that just shows like how they see,
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how they see. And I think this goes back to our episode on how the leftists and Democrats in America
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decided suddenly to hijack Black identity and be like, Black identity is now victim identity. And
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we're going to save you. And we're going to take care of you. Whereas Black identity before was
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enterprising. It was wealthy. And yes, it was often subject to insane bias and riots and their whole
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communities being burnt down. But why were their communities being burnt down? Because white
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people were jealous of their economic flourishing. OK, that's what happened in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
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And this whole this whole concept of Black people are poor. Black people can't pay back their loans.
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Black people need social handouts is so deeply insulting. And I think there's this this undercurrent,
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especially among Black men who get it, who are not buying into that narrative, who are like,
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yeah, like, screw this. Let's let's read some quotes from various Black people here when they
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were being asked, why are they voting for Trump? And I think what you'll see is we here's one,
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right? We want prosperity and we want secure borders and we want the American dream, Maxwell said.
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And only the Republican Party is speaking to this message because they have the policies in terms of
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limited government. Drill, baby, drill. And very.
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I mean, that's someone who's speaking as an American. And I think that's the other thing is
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that's it's it's someone who's not captured by identity politics, which is refreshing.
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Well, very interesting. The drill, baby, drill slogan seems to be really popular among Black
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conservatives. I haven't heard any white conservative use this slogan, this election
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cycle. I heard it multiple times when I was watching videos of Black conservatives speaking on
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the issues that they cared about. When I hear drill, baby, drill, I like see Sarah Palin. I don't like
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it like, you know, it invokes. I think what it speaks to is this idea that regulations are keeping
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their communities in poverty and that if you just went out and did like exploit our environment for
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resources, people would have jobs again. Then another one, what a lot of them were saying is I
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can't afford to. Another thing that a lot of them were saying when they were being interviewed is
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basically I can't afford another four years of this. Like that is not realistic at all. But here
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another one. Now, this is somebody who is a 20 year old who is voting for Democrats, but she was
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noticing that a lot of her friends are voting for Republicans. And so in explaining, even as an
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uncharitable person, why her friends are voting for Republicans, she says, the thing that I hear a lot
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of is if a person is really conservative, they really like how the economics are handled by
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Republicans. Usually with social issues, they tend to be more liberal, at least like my friends who
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maybe are in the middle or leaning conservative, they'll be more liberal on social issues and more
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conservative with economics, which is an inverse of the reason why blacks flipped parties before.
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And I find that to be very, very interesting. And I think it does come down to what you're saying
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here, which is the self-empowerment thing. But now let's talk about other ethnic groups because it is
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across the board here. Yeah. So Rainey Center, which we're a fan of, had the biggest surprise for me
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on the front of other demographics when they came out in September of this year with survey data
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indicating that 30% of Muslims in America planned on voting for Trump.
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Oh, then the numbers have changed since then. I haven't gotten to those numbers yet,
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but actually now in 2020, Biden won Arab Americans by a 24 point margin. Current polling shows Trump
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having tied with Harris among Arab Americans. It's both 40%.
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Wow. Okay. So it's, wow. That's, and so that's good. One thing that I hear savvy political
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commentators talk about a lot is it doesn't, you don't learn a whole lot by seeing what the static
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poll numbers are. What matters more is what direction are things going in? And if that's happening,
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That's a huge shift. No, we're going to, no, Simone, actually, before we go further,
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you had some stuff you want to talk about with the Black Lives Matter thing. Like nobody watched
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their video or like they didn't have that much cultural reach.
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Well, I just, I need to get to the bottom of this more. This is for research. I'm doing that,
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that other Black Lives Matter episode, but one of the big things when they raised a ton of money in
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2020 was, oh my gosh, there's an election this year. We have to change the outcome of the election.
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We're going to raise money for a super PAC. And in addition to trying to increase Black male voter
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turnout and engagement, they commissioned a TV commercial, which they ran, apparently they paid
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to run ads on it on social media, in addition to on TV. But then I checked their YouTube channel,
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which has all of six subscribers and it has 1.1 K views. And I'm like, how is this even happening?
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And I mean, I watched the video and it just. I sometimes wonder if that movement wasn't more
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astroturfed than the public believes. Yeah, there's, there's a lot I want to dig into there
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for sure. I mean, they regranted a lot, so I don't blame them for not necessarily doing a ton
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internally with their own program, like fundraising, but they raised a lot for their PAC and they raised
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in 2020 over $90 million. And they only regranted 23% of their assets, which is a lot for the industry,
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which typically regrants about five to 8%. I think probably because they normally do stuff in
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house, but yeah, even having raised 90 million and regranted 23%, you would expect them to do more.
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And well, didn't they just spend it all on mansions? Okay. So like a lot of that happened
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and we'll get to that in the episode, but what I was surprised with was just like the, the work they
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were doing. They did get some admirable door knocking volunteer turnout. And I think that's because
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there was so much energy in 2020 of people just saying, I want to do something. Like I am really
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frustrated with the way that black Americans experience America right now. I'm not happy with
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it. And so they got a lot of help there, but I was surprised by how flat their, their ad felt just
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how flat it fell and, and how little engagement they seem to be giving. Interesting. Okay. Now, by the way,
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to the Arab American things that we were talking about, how, how did it go from winning with a 24
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point margin to equal votes? Well, yeah. And, and apparently from 30% now to 40%, this is, you
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know, things are changing rapidly. Yeah. So the true thing appears to be that they are very,
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very dissatisfied with how the Israeli Palestine issue is being handled by the Biden administration.
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And they don't think that Harris has significantly distanced her stance from the administration.
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And it's, it's for, for 29% of them, it's the primary issue. Now, I think a lot of people are
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surprised then that they would move to Trump who might be seen as being even more pro-Israel than
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the Biden administration. Right. But I think it's because they believe that Trump can actually get
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things done in terms of creating some kind of a peaceful resolution because he's actually willing
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to try and do stuff. Also like, look at how Trump is super chill and bro-y with a lot of like
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different Islamic and, and yeah, he's very good at dealing with Muslim individuals.
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Yeah. He's, he's like, he's, he's super Persian in his aesthetic. So I don't know. I kind of feel
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there I have, I'm of two minds. One is, okay, there's Israel and he's, he's, he's down with Israel.
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Right. But also he got more done in terms of Middle Eastern peace relations, working in concert.
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You know why I think he does so well with that audience. And I think it's something that a lot
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of people are discounting when they see Trump is that he, when he meets with these Arab kings often
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who have all this money and all these fancy palaces and all these cool gadgets. Yeah. He
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is genuinely impressed. He loves this sort of stuff and gets excited about it. Yeah. And for these types
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of individuals, that is the highest compliment they can get to be showing the U S president around.
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And the U S president is giddy at every new stupid gadget. They show him every new, are you picturing
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the globe, the globe image, the globe where he's like, Oh, this is so cool. They're all touching it.
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I feel like they're just all having this moment where they're like, guys, let's take a group picture.
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You can just see they're like girls at a sleepover. It's amazing. Yeah. And I don't think that that's
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something that Biden or Kamala has been able to connect with them on because they're too
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reserved and trying to play whatever 40 games. No, it's not even that they're like,
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they're, they're, they're prejudiced. They're elitist. They're, I don't know,
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like racist or F F what's the ethnic version of racist or like cultural version of racist,
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but they kind of cultural supremacists. They, these people are lesser than me.
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My like Anglo waspy background. And yes, I am calling Kamala more Anglo and waspy because she,
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she grew up in freaking Berkeley. Like he's a white NPR listening. Like she might as well be in a white
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NPR listening reform Jew. I don't know how else to put it, but like, that's kind of the look,
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you know, of like that Bay area Berkeley kind of person. And those people go to places like the
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Middle East and they look down upon those cultures and Trump goes there and he's like,
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I wish we could do that here. Like, man, you guys pull it out.
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He said that once or something and everyone's like, well, you can't say that.
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Yeah. So I, that is one thing. I think the other thing though, and this is something that I'm seeing
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as a candidate for state rep on a more local level is that there are some people who are so vehemently
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passionate about an image, an issue that if they feel like the person who should be their ally is not
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fully 100% in conformity, in conformity with their desires, that they will vote for the other person
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out of spite. So on the position, for example, of abortion, the fact that I have this middle ground
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means that out of spite, some Republicans who are very, very, very anti-abortion are going to vote
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for my democratic opponent who is even more pro-abortion than I am.
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You won't vote for the restrict abortion access.
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Yes. So because I'm not as restrictive as they want me to be, they're going to vote for my opponent
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out of spite. My opponent who is not in favor of more restrictions, whereas I am. And I think that
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that might be the other thing that's going on is just the fact that the would be Palestinian ally is
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not sufficiently saying that we have to, you know, from the river to the sea. And she's not saying this
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every time she stands in front of an audience after giving her land acknowledgements, that that
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means that they're not going to vote for her. That honestly, it's the weirdest thing. It does not
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make any sense, but I do think that it is happening because I am seeing it myself.
00:22:25.340
Yeah, I could 100% see that. I will note when people are like, how pro-Israel is Trump?
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If you forgot, when I was in Israel the last time I was there, it was during the Trump administration,
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and there were all these threats because Trump had moved the US embassy back into Jerusalem,
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right? Yeah. And everyone was like, oh my God, you can't do that. Like we were supposed to have
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removed our embassy. And he's like, no, I'm not going to do it. Build an embassy.
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And Ian Kushner got more done in the, in the Middle East than, than anyone, anyone,
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everyone knows they were incredibly successful there. So, and then the, the, to understand how much
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Israel loves Trump. I remember when I'd walk around the city at night, there were big like
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skyscrapers that had Trump's face projected on them. That was how, how in love like Israel was
00:23:12.220
with Trump during at least the period when I was walking around there. So they are Trump like them,
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and they like him. And yet the Middle Eastern is like, yeah, I just won't. I also think the other
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thing that you mentioned there, and I've mentioned this before, I think culturally he connects with them.
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A lot of the Arab Americans are Persian Arab Americans and Persians are like,
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Trump culturally is much more Persian than he is waspy. He's not even, I mean, he's only waspy
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and so far as he wears like American flag colored. Yeah. If you look at, if you look at like his house,
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like it would be considered garish by most like waspy Americans. The only houses I've ever seen look
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like that are either maybe Persian Americans, maybe Armenian Americans, but mostly it's like
00:23:59.740
more Persian-y, but again, similar regions there. All right. So next group we're going to be talking
00:24:04.940
about here, the Hispanic American voter. Oh, goodness. These individuals in 2020,
00:24:10.380
Biden won about 63% of Hispanic voters. By the way, I don't think- Which is surprising to me.
00:24:14.700
In 2020, I would expect fewer because so many of our Hispanic friends were like really, really,
00:24:19.180
really angry about the Democratic Party's treatment of many Latino neighborhoods during all the protests.
00:24:25.500
Simone, that's not that much. 63% of the Hispanic vote?
00:24:28.460
Come on. That's still too much. They act like it's a locked down thing. That's almost half. And now,
00:24:34.860
where are we? Kamala is leading. Trump was 56%. Okay. So again, that, that direction,
00:24:42.060
directionality is, is definitely in favor of Republican parties. And 44% of Latino men, 18 to 40,
00:24:49.660
said they would vote for Trump up from 38% in 2020. So you're seeing a dramatic rise here.
00:24:56.860
And Pew Research Center found that Trump gained 10 percentage points among Hispanic voters from
00:25:02.380
2016 to 2020. So it's a continuing trend as well. So we're going from 2020 to 2024. That to me is,
00:25:09.980
I think, the biggest thing. And that's how Florida, if anyone's been looking at like maps recently of
00:25:15.500
like where states are likely to go, that's why Florida is not a swing state anymore. Florida became
00:25:21.180
a solid red state because the Hispanic vote moved to a split. As to why it moved to a split. Again,
00:25:29.100
this is the ethnic community that we are closest with, which is why I was most offended by the hope
00:25:34.300
not hates, incredibly racist accusation that there's no exceptional Hispanic people, but not believe.
00:25:40.700
Well, uh, but anyway, so yeah, we're, we're very close with Hispanic people in Hispanic culture and
00:25:47.260
they engage with information. I mentioned this before, so I'll be fairly quick about it. Very
00:25:51.180
different from other cultural groups in America, meaning they mostly exchange information through
00:25:55.500
family networks and not through like news sites and stuff like that that they'll see with more
00:25:59.660
suspicion. A lot of Hispanic individuals are business owners and it was their businesses that were
00:26:05.980
disproportionately torched during the BLM riots because they were the ones on the
00:26:10.460
outskirts of those black communities. And when the government, when the Democrats did nothing,
00:26:15.260
when they didn't denounce the riots, when they didn't, when they, you know, like Tim Waltz's wife,
00:26:20.540
who opened the window to smell the businesses burning during the BLM riots, those were mostly Hispanic
00:26:27.100
minority owned businesses that were burning that she wasn't going to smell.
00:26:30.620
You're also missing a really, I think we should address a really key issue as well, which is a
00:26:35.980
very hot topic in the United States and so many other nations right now, immigration.
00:26:40.460
And I think a lot of Democrats are like, well, of course, Hispanics want open borders. No,
00:26:46.460
they don't. They, you know, those who immigrated or first generation immigrants went through so much
00:26:53.260
shit to get into the country. They busted their asses. They paid thousands and thousands of dollars
00:26:58.780
to immigration lawyers. They spent years on wait lists. They went through tons of bureaucratic hoops.
00:27:03.900
And suddenly all these people are coming through this porous border and getting us like random
00:27:09.420
support and get out of jail free cards. They're pissed.
00:27:12.460
It's not just that, but Hispanics don't see themselves. Like if you actually are friends
00:27:17.020
with real Hispanics and not this insane, like if you're not going to say something offensive like
00:27:21.180
Latin X, which of course is usually offensive to most Hispanic communities, you would know that
00:27:26.220
Hispanics don't see themselves as a unified ethnic group. They see themselves as, you know, as Mexican
00:27:33.980
or as Brazilian or as Peruvian or as Costa Rican. And many of these groups have an incredible amount of,
00:27:45.180
I don't know, of racism is the right word, but a degree of prejudice against other Hispanic groups.
00:27:52.060
You know, a Hispanic Mexican, for example, is going to often think very disparagingly
00:27:57.980
about, for example, maybe a Venezuelan immigrant or something like that. Right. And so when Democrats
00:28:03.500
think because they are supporting immigration, that they are earning goodwill across the Hispanic
00:28:09.340
community, they're just wrong about this monolith. Yeah. Well, and also like treating, you know,
00:28:16.300
first generation, second generation and third generation immigrants from Central or South
00:28:22.460
America, as though they're the same as like potential refugees or something who are coming
00:28:28.780
into it. It's just, it's insane. It's unhinged. And I think it would, it would majorly piss me off.
00:28:35.340
I can understand why it would alienate many other voters. That said, we do have plenty of
00:28:40.860
of like broadly Latin American friends who are huge supporters of Kamala Harris. So it's not,
00:28:47.260
you know, they're not. What's interesting to me is when they are supporters of Kamala Harris,
00:28:51.820
they are not supporters of her in the, I support her because she supports immigration way.
00:28:58.860
They're supporters of her. We sell travel to various ethnic groups and we have a lot of travel sales in
00:29:04.940
Latin America. One of the things that sells very well to the Latin American audience,
00:29:09.900
I'd say is the cliche beach, Instagram picture vacation, which is the vacation that gets you on
00:29:16.860
a nice looking beach where you can take Instagram pictures with pretty ladies and post that. And
00:29:22.620
this to me as a vacation is more to fun. This style of vacation does not sell well,
00:29:30.220
often within white ethnic groups, unless you're talking like college kids or something.
00:29:34.780
I think that their support of Kamala makes feels very much to me, like the classic beach vacation
00:29:43.020
package, because it's like what you're supposed to support if you're like a, you know, yeah,
00:29:51.980
Just basically saying anyone who's basic or who's more conformist in broad America,
00:29:58.060
mainstream media culture is probably more. Yeah. Because, because you are evil per mainstream
00:30:04.940
American culture. Actually, I would argue that the trend that I see more commonly is just culturally,
00:30:11.660
if you're a more empathetic person, that is to say that, you know, things pull at your heartstrings
00:30:17.100
more, you are more likely to vote for Kamala and have a really difficult time stomaching Trump.
00:30:22.140
I think that there is a portion of the Hispanic community that is aspirationally basic.
00:30:28.700
And I think that that is where the Dems have the best.
00:30:32.460
Okay. So you're going to say that the live, laugh, love Latinos are voting for Kamala.
00:30:35.500
Yes, the live, laugh, love Latinos. That is the category voting for Kamala. Well,
00:30:40.380
no, I mean, among especially Latino women, that's a big category. It's not like a small group,
00:30:46.860
but basically over time, I expect some degree of Democrat erosion was in the Latino community.
00:30:54.700
However, I think something that's really important to remember, if you look at the
00:30:57.980
El Norte cultural region of the US, which is the high immigrant cultural region, it's actually the
00:31:02.940
key voter base of the current Democratic Party, not the Northeast, as many people assume. If you look
00:31:08.380
at voting patterns in the same way that the greater Appalachia is a key voter base of Trump.
00:31:12.540
And I think that, and not in the deep South, like many people presume. And I think that we will,
00:31:19.100
you know, previously I was like, before I looked at the Catholic statistics, I was like, I think that
00:31:24.380
we will eventually convert the Hispanic population to being more conservative leaning. Now, I no longer
00:31:31.180
think that if you look at the percent Catholic of a district in the United States, that is one of the
00:31:37.180
like highest correlates we have found to how likely they are to be Democratic voting.
00:31:41.500
Catholic, they're just very Democratic voting. It's sort of like the party of Catholics.
00:31:46.060
And so, so long as they stay Catholic, I don't think we're going to be able to ever really flip
00:31:51.660
those districts that they're disproportionately immigrating into. That said, we have seen a lot
00:31:56.620
of conversions to Protestantism was in the first generation Latin American community.
00:32:03.820
Yeah, it's been a huge thing in the data. Yeah, huge. They're, they're converting. I think it's like
00:32:13.180
Well, it's, it's the fun side. It's like in Madagascar.
00:32:17.420
Catholicism can be fun. Catholicism can be so fun. You get to sin and then just confess.
00:32:24.940
You know what I mean? Like, come on. All right. So next group, Asian Americans.
00:32:32.380
In 2020, 54% of Asian American voters intended to vote for Joe Biden. While in 2024, 46% said they
00:32:40.780
were inclined to vote for Harris. So again, about a 10% loss, eight percentage point decrease.
00:32:47.980
Biden won Asian American voters by a margin of 72 to 28%. Current polling shows Harris at 66 to 28%.
00:32:57.420
So just huge loss across the board in every ethnic group. And I think that there's different reasons
00:33:04.940
for each group, but I think that we will continue to see this shift as time goes on.
00:33:09.180
I think the one, the one place where Harris is incredibly strong is just white women.
00:33:18.220
And well, I think live black love is the only community that she's strong.
00:33:22.380
And they are very conscientious voter base. So I think that it's not, it wouldn't be a bad one to have
00:33:29.500
in the bag. But even when I look, for example, at the Kamala Harris opportunity agenda for black men,
00:33:37.820
when I reviewed that again, I'm like, this isn't, this isn't for black men. This is for white women.
00:33:47.180
So the, the opportunity agenda for black men is a policy initiative aimed at addressing economic
00:33:55.260
and social challenges faced by black men in the United States. Just that framing alone,
00:34:00.460
like in the sort of premise of presenting, this is emasculating and insulting to black men in America.
00:34:06.220
Like you need extra help, don't you? But I think it's really there for dealing.
00:34:12.940
So in terms of economic empowerment, and this is also where it just gets so ridiculous and insulting.
00:34:19.820
The agenda proposes to provide up to 1 million forgivable loans up to 20,000 each for black
00:34:26.860
entrepreneurs who have, you know, historically.
00:34:29.500
I love the dims that are like, Elon Musk is giving out money to people like this is a,
00:34:34.860
you can't do that. And meanwhile, Kamala Harris is like, yeah, I'm going to give out money if I win.
00:34:38.620
Well, I mean, but legal experts argue that policies, just distributing resources based on race could
00:34:44.220
face significant constitutional challenges and, and programs that provide preferences based on race
00:34:49.820
have been struck down in court previously, like disaster release programs, relief programs.
00:34:54.940
So the problem here too. And I think any, like, if I were a black business owner who could potentially
00:35:01.660
benefit from one of these loans, I'd be like, okay, great, but you're just going to waste my time
00:35:06.620
on a loan application. That's going to take forever to process. And then it's going to be rejected and
00:35:11.420
seen as constitutionally illegitimate because it is like, you can't just give away a whole bunch of
00:35:18.620
money to a group based on their racial identity. That's insane.
00:35:23.980
This was actually really interesting. When I heard some black people explaining why they're not going
00:35:28.540
to vote for Kamala, they were really annoyed by her plan to give out like free money for housing.
00:35:36.380
That like their first, first time homeowners, they were like, okay, either this just isn't going to happen.
00:35:45.100
Like you're referring to the element of this initiative where by the administration would
00:35:51.580
offer $25,000 in down payment assistance to first time home buyers.
00:35:56.860
Yeah. They're like, we've heard this lie before. And even if it goes through,
00:36:00.700
I own my home. What about me? Are they going to give me $20,000?
00:36:04.300
Yeah. And it's kind of like student loan forgiveness. We're like, oh, so I,
00:36:07.340
I paid off my student loan. Fuck me. I guess like, sorry for being conscientious.
00:36:12.300
It just sends so many bad messages. It's like a party. It's like, it sort of is like,
00:36:16.540
we're a party that helps parasites. If you live your life as parasitically as possible,
00:36:21.820
then we will benefit you more. But I also, I just, I feel like it's really insulting. And
00:36:27.980
I don't know, like a common element that I see among like, just we'll say like black characters in
00:36:35.100
media who I see receiving widespread admiration is that these are proud, very strong, very competent
00:36:43.660
people. And this image of black men that is being painted by the Harris administration
00:36:56.380
And Obama, it's like savage men who can like barely contain.
00:37:02.220
Yeah. Insecure, like backwards, savage, incompetent victims, like just the worst.
00:37:11.020
But it's just like when the FAA said, well, we need to hire black, more, more black people,
00:37:15.260
but we can't explicitly do it. So we'll just put on tests and we'll hire people who have problems
00:37:19.500
with authority, hate science was their least favorite class in school and don't take directions.
00:37:25.180
Well, it's like they literally think of black people in these racial stereotypes.
00:37:30.140
Well, yeah. Also, I mean, back to the, the, the agenda that part of that, that specific agenda for
00:37:37.100
black men, not just for Americans, but for black men specifically is proposing the legalization of
00:37:43.020
marijuana at the federal level, because, you know, weed's a black person thing. Like,
00:37:48.860
I mean, they're just, there's so many things that are like when BLM was like, oh, well,
00:37:55.100
don't you know that we need to support the dissolution of the nuclear family? Because
00:38:00.700
that's a black person thing. And then we point out that if you go to the 1960s, black families
00:38:07.260
actually had much stronger marriage relationships. You can watch our black episode on this and actually
00:38:11.980
had black women were less than half as likely as white women to be out of wedlock. And they had
00:38:18.700
children out of wedlock at less than half the rate of white people. Now it's, what is it? 70% of,
00:38:25.340
of black kids are born out of wedlock, I think at this point, but it used to be less than half the
00:38:29.980
white rate. Although how many, I mean, I feel like across all demographics, more kids are born out of
00:38:35.820
wedlock these days. Uh, yeah, they are, but now it's much more in the black community.
00:38:40.460
No, I, I'm honestly, if someone told me that was the same with white populations,
00:38:44.300
I wouldn't be remotely surprised. It's not. I mean, look at Sweden. I think no one gets married
00:38:49.100
anymore. Well, that's a different cultural structure. It's not that they don't have two
00:38:53.420
parents. It's that the people just choose to live together and they don't do the official
00:38:56.940
marriage ceremony. Oh, but that doesn't mean that black, that black families that are having
00:39:01.100
in America right now, many black children are being raised, not knowing who their fathers are.
00:39:06.540
Like that's a totally different phenomenon. Yeah. Okay. That, that is different, but yeah,
00:39:10.540
I just, I did, I just, wow. How, how can all of this hold and how can, how can black men
00:39:18.780
not be overwhelmingly like at least not for Kamala Harris? I, I just,
00:39:24.220
I just, even if I wanted handouts, I would be so dubious of the likelihood of these handouts
00:39:31.900
coming to me that I, I would be deeply concerned. It just doesn't seem likely.
00:39:38.540
Well, and I think that's the way a lot of the community feels. They just don't trust Democrats
00:39:41.420
anymore. Well, and yet, and yet still, I mean, isn't it that the majority of, of black voters,
00:39:46.780
broadly speaking, plan on voting? Right, but it's changing.
00:39:50.060
Yeah. It's changing. And I wouldn't be, and I think it's very interesting that Kamala was the
00:39:55.500
one who initiated this change, a presumably the person who at least identifies as a black American.
00:40:05.180
Trump has argued that she didn't identify as a black American until it was expedient. And before
00:40:09.020
that, maybe she was Indian, maybe she was mixed race or whatever. But I don't, I don't blame her for
00:40:13.500
that. If I had multiple potential racial backgrounds that I could identify with, I would chameleon my way
00:40:18.780
around the world too. Like. Yeah. It benefited me. But then, you know, I do think that he is
00:40:25.260
accurate in that attack of her and Democrats being like, Oh, how dare he do that? I'm like, yeah. But
00:40:30.540
like when they were like shocked that he called her the DEI candidate. But he like literally was,
00:40:36.460
because I think at some point during his candidacy for, um, president Biden had said,
00:40:43.500
I promise I will choose. It was like either like a, a, a, like non-white vice president.
00:40:55.740
candidate and then he got one. And now it's like, Oh, but how dare you say that? That's
00:41:00.140
what it is. Cause it's the DEI candidate. Yeah. And I'd also note here that, I mean, she never won
00:41:07.260
any major election. Like when, in the primaries, when the Biden season, she was doing super poorly.
00:41:12.860
I don't think she made it to Iowa. Yeah. Which is the default candidate is insane.
00:41:20.140
Um, and you know, obviously the final thing, and we've mentioned this before, but it's worse
00:41:24.380
if you don't know this, you know, she did jail a bunch of innocent black people, thousands,
00:41:29.980
literally during her tenure, she didn't release them when they were supposed to be released in order
00:41:34.540
to win an election. She used them for free labor when it would have been cheaper to pay them.
00:41:39.180
She's just everything that black lives matter said it was campaigning against. She has called herself
00:41:45.660
the top cop of California. And, and when she says that she means in the corrupt, slimy, racist way.
00:41:52.620
But anyway, you can watch our camera video for more on that. I hope you have a wonderful night,
00:41:57.420
Simone. And I'm so disappointed. There's a Elon Trump rally right next to our house tonight.
00:42:05.180
It's tonight. I don't know. I don't even know if it's happening anymore.
00:42:09.500
I kind of feel like it's not happening because I haven't figured out how to sign up for it.
00:42:16.220
I don't think it's, I can't find news coverage of it anymore.
00:42:19.180
I feel like things were taken down and it was canceled. So don't worry about it.
00:42:23.580
All right. Well, for tonight, I really love those taquitos you made yesterday.
00:42:29.260
There were leftover ones of that, but you don't want leftovers.
00:42:32.940
I can do leftover taquitos with pumpkin ravioli and pesto. You need to use some pesto.
00:42:38.940
Oh yeah. Do you need to eat some pumpkin ravioli and pesto? Yeah, that works for me.
00:42:43.500
Because then if you don't like the taquitos, there's pumpkin ravioli and pesto.
00:42:46.220
Oh, I've got to like the taquitos. You're going to use the air fryer,
00:42:49.420
Yeah. And I might like sprinkle a little more butter on top or something. Or maybe,
00:42:53.500
do you want me to put cheddar cheese on top? No, it makes them soggy. I don't know.
00:42:56.220
No, I actually do want, I was actually thinking they need cheese.
00:42:58.940
Okay. So some melted cheddar cheese on top. Yeah.
00:43:01.580
Melted cheddar cheese. I don't want to eat it. How many, how many do we have left?
00:43:04.940
Three. Yeah. That's a full meal. Give me the three melted cheddar cheese on top.
00:43:22.300
I mean, I, I'm like, we can do American cheese for like grilled cheese. Like there are places for it.
00:43:28.140
This is not, this is not the place. You don't want gelatin. You don't put gelatin on top of taquitos.
00:43:34.620
Can you, are they, are they in a way where you couldn't put anything else inside them?
00:43:37.900
Yeah. They're, they're like melded together. Okay. Great. Sorry.
00:43:44.060
I know I was thinking about the scallions. Scallions. Scallions. Yeah. Putting it, putting some, not scallions. What are, what are those shallots?
00:43:52.540
Shallots. I can chop up the shallots, shine finely, put them in a dipping dish and you can dip.
00:43:58.460
I don't know. Maybe. Do you want me to, I think it's fine the way it is, but the cheddar is a good idea.
00:44:11.580
I love you too, Simone. You are a great wife. And if you wanted to give me something a little extra, some tomato soup.
00:44:18.460
Oh, that's good. Cause we did open it and, oh, you can dip it. Oh, you can dip it.
00:44:23.020
Yeah. Taquitos with panang. She's taquitos with panang and pumpkin dipped in.
00:44:29.340
Yeah. She makes it with a pumpkin puree and then it's a slow cooked meat mix made with panang.
00:44:34.540
What kind of fusion is that? You got your, you got your American Mexican with taquitos.
00:44:40.900
Oh, new Americana. I, I am, I ever am president. I'm going to mess with the chefs at the white house so much.
00:44:45.980
You got your indigenous America with pumpkin. You got, where does tomato soup come from? I don't know. France.
00:44:59.020
I feel like it's French. And then you've got cheddar cheese, which is from the Cheddar Gorge, which we visited.
00:45:13.020
All right. I love you, Simone. Have a good day.
00:45:17.820
I did though. Will you get the kids when it, when the time comes?
00:45:25.100
Did, did you send Octavian to school wearing a key, like a, a lanyard today?
00:45:33.980
Because apparently he identified on the schoolyard attempting to choke children with it upon not being given the toy that he wanted them to share.
00:45:51.340
That's the great thing about public school. You can't be kicked out.
00:45:54.060
Give it time, Malcolm. I'm receiving calls at this point.
00:46:00.940
His teacher's like, he understands that he needs to ask to share things and to encourage people to share.
00:46:07.420
But if they proceed to not share with him, he will use force.
00:46:13.980
He punches, he kicks, and most recently he chokes with lanyards.
00:46:27.260
That's why we recently showed him the original Mortal Kombat, so that he and his brother, because he and his brother wanted to fight, and I was like, oh my gosh.
00:46:40.440
Yeah, now he's going from punching and kicking to, I guess, like, windmill punching and sideways leap kicking.
00:46:52.720
That's the goal of sharing this stuff with him.
00:46:56.140
I remember there was something else that I wanted to...
00:46:57.880
Oh yeah, well, the Guardian's coming tomorrow, and I love that we still take the Guardian reporters at our house after the umpteenth hit piece.
00:47:06.960
I really hope it's a follow-up to the Hope Not Hate stuff, because that could be...
00:47:10.880
Well, she reached out to us immediately after that hit piece came out, and was like, I would like to shadow you as you campaign.
00:47:20.560
And then I had a call with her, and I was telling her how we were...
00:47:23.740
Our goal was to try all these unconventional tactics and make it possible for, you know, competent, employed people who don't want to spend all their time raising money or all their time campaigning
00:47:34.240
to actually get elected into office and make a positive difference.
00:47:45.200
I felt like she had blinders on of just like, I'm going to look at this freakish enemy.
00:47:51.720
Well, I know, and I think because the Hope Not Hate piece was like, you're elitist, right?
00:47:56.240
So she probably expected you to have an ultra-elitist attitude towards all of this.
00:48:00.180
And what I might tell her is, our attitudes are elitist insofar as we have disdain for the existing power structure and see it as beneath us.
00:48:10.360
But we don't have disdain for the average American and see them as beneath us.
00:48:16.940
Yeah, no, we have disdain for those who choose not to show up in whatever capacity that might be.
00:48:22.400
So, yeah, I mean, we may have a great deal of disdain for your average political candidate or political consultant or pollster.
00:48:29.960
But we would have very little for the average American, which is what they were trying to frame that as.
00:48:44.360
I'll also send you something that we can go over.
00:48:51.860
Oh, make sure for the reporter that you do wash my clothes tonight.
00:49:07.100
Teddy is giving us flags again because he likes the flag.
00:49:23.960
Because Teddy really wants it, and they'll buy it for him as a person.