Based Camp - Why ＂Socially Conservative＂ Nations Are Having Fewer Kids (Yes Really) With Aria Babu

00:00:00.000 My theory for it is that British elites have three beliefs that are very difficult to square

00:00:05.320 with each other, which is one of them, which is that biodeterminism is completely false,

00:00:09.620 that a child's outcomes are based wholly on their environment.

00:00:13.840 Second, the inequality is bad.

00:00:16.180 So the fact that children from different households have different outcomes is genuinely negative, 0.96

00:00:21.040 is like a genuinely really bad thing to happen.

00:00:23.200 And three, the education can basically fix all of these ends.

00:00:28.520 So that when you see that children who go to the same schools end up having different outcomes

00:00:32.560 based on their parents' backgrounds, the best theory that then comes to mind is,

00:00:36.060 oh, it's about what's going on slightly before school,

00:00:38.300 which I think is why so much energy is poured into the early years' foundation stage.

00:00:42.360 Would you like to know more?

00:00:43.740 Hello! It is so exciting to be with you guys today.

00:00:48.660 I am really excited to bring someone who I feel we have scouted in talent scouting,

00:00:54.460 but it seems that all of the other rising conservative intellectuals also know her.

00:00:59.180 Aria Babu, who is sort of an underground key figure in the conservative intellectual movement in the UK.

00:01:08.560 And she recently started a sub-stack. 0.75

00:01:12.720 She's only one episode in, but I already love it.

00:01:15.400 I was actually planning to do an episode just on this chain of sub-stacks that she's releasing.

00:01:20.460 So do you want to start by going into this sub-stack that you're working on,

00:01:24.860 the first episode, and then we can expand from there?

00:01:28.420 Yeah, of course.

00:01:29.340 So my first piece was about how socially conservative countries

00:01:33.120 don't seem to have higher birth rates in socially liberal countries.

00:01:37.620 So the first look at the data, if you just look at the European Values Survey

00:01:41.240 and you compare that to just TFRs across these countries,

00:01:44.520 shows that actually the more socially conservative countries,

00:01:47.320 so we're looking at thinking like Italy and Spain, for example,

00:01:50.840 have lower birth rates than the more socially liberal ones.

00:01:52.800 We're thinking Scandinavian countries, France, Britain.

00:01:55.100 My second post, which I've already done the research for,

00:01:57.760 but I haven't published yet, then goes into asking why that might be the case.

00:02:01.980 So my first theory is that maybe more socially liberal countries

00:02:06.160 have better provision of childcare.

00:02:08.500 They have more public services that support motherhood.

00:02:10.860 So I looked at cost of childcare, number of parents who use it,

00:02:15.800 and yeah, both of those things, basically,

00:02:18.300 and also attitudes towards using childcare.

00:02:20.740 And it seems that those also have like literally no correlation

00:02:23.600 with birth rates in different countries.

00:02:26.080 And I remember seeing that in Austria,

00:02:28.460 the cost of a nursery place for two kids costs 3% of the average woman's income, 0.99

00:02:32.840 whereas in Switzerland, it costs 64%,

00:02:35.440 and those countries have the exact same birth rate.

00:02:38.100 Fascinating.

00:02:39.080 So that doesn't seem to make a difference.

00:02:40.580 And I was like, okay, what is another reason

00:02:42.040 why a more socially liberal country might have a higher birth rate? 0.89

00:02:45.680 Well, maybe it's because a more socially liberal country,

00:02:49.360 well, I was going to say maybe it's just because it's a nicer place to live.

00:02:51.720 That's actually like super unmeasurable.

00:02:53.380 I mean, maybe it is a nicer place to live, and that does make it easier, 0.99

00:02:55.640 but that kind of sounds like bullshit to me. 0.93

00:02:58.280 So then I thought, okay, what are the other correlates 0.96

00:03:00.920 that you might have between social conservatism and birth?

00:03:05.580 And I was wondering if maybe it's because the more you value motherhood,

00:03:09.080 the more you prize it, the more work it might be for people.

00:03:12.420 So it's very difficult to then try and pick out data

00:03:14.960 that suggests like how much work do you think children are?

00:03:18.060 But the closest I could find on the OECD stats site

00:03:21.120 is birth rates as correlated with the amount of time

00:03:24.800 that mothers spend with new babies. 0.59

00:03:26.640 Okay, okay.

00:03:27.800 And then you do get the correlation.

00:03:29.000 Then you get the correlation that pretty much maps

00:03:31.240 to the socially conservative to socially liberal correlation.

00:03:33.900 So that's my underlying theory currently,

00:03:35.720 which is that the more socially conservative people

00:03:37.720 also believe that having children is much more work.

00:03:40.660 And so just to be clear,

00:03:42.120 more socially conservative nations also report

00:03:44.840 higher amounts of time spent with new babies.

00:03:49.100 And is this in the form of maternity leave,

00:03:51.200 or is there some other measure of time spent?

00:03:53.540 So the stats I looked at was just number of hours that they spend.

00:03:57.240 Oh, like hours a day doing childcare.

00:03:59.560 So the OECD does classic polling,

00:04:02.500 which is how many hours do you spend in work?

00:04:03.940 How many hours do you spend in leisure?

00:04:05.280 How many hours do you spend in household labor in general?

00:04:08.500 And then, so then they looked at mothers of newborn women.

00:04:12.200 So this would-

00:04:12.860 Newborn babies.

00:04:13.800 Yeah, this would also correlate with something

00:04:15.620 that is really clear in the data.

00:04:19.120 It was this East Asian country,

00:04:20.640 the view control for income

00:04:22.860 have unusually low fertility rates.

00:04:25.460 And generally, the more conservative an East Asian country is,

00:04:29.760 the lower its fertility rate is going to be. 0.96

00:04:32.900 And something we keep hammering home on this show

00:04:36.280 when we bring up the East Asian sphere,

00:04:38.140 because it's something that I think

00:04:39.520 goes against a lot of Westerners' intuition,

00:04:42.280 is that East Asian countries are more socially conservative

00:04:45.720 than Western countries by a pretty dramatic amount.

00:04:49.160 And so this would also explain

00:04:51.800 why those countries have such low fertility rates,

00:04:55.340 which this has a lot of really interesting implications,

00:04:59.320 what you're finding.

00:05:00.140 So the first is something that, you know,

00:05:02.240 progressives don't want to hear,

00:05:04.020 which is that it turns out

00:05:05.280 that you're not actually helping

00:05:06.640 by subsidizing childcare.

00:05:08.460 That does not appear to matter.

00:05:10.580 But then the second is,

00:05:11.800 and this is a deleterious thing,

00:05:13.220 I keep seeing conservative influencers,

00:05:15.080 even ones who think of themselves

00:05:16.620 as pro-natal is advocating,

00:05:18.680 which is the stay-at-home mom lifestyle.

00:05:21.480 And what we are seeing here

00:05:23.420 is almost nothing other than wealth

00:05:26.980 negatively impacts fertility

00:05:29.180 as much as the expectation

00:05:32.040 of the stay-at-home mother lifestyle among mothers.

00:05:36.700 And there's two really interesting points

00:05:40.200 we can take away from this.

00:05:41.460 One, and we often point this out,

00:05:43.160 there was a great,

00:05:43.740 the Nobel Prize winner this year did a thing on this,

00:05:45.760 and I'm going to see if I can find the graph

00:05:47.720 and put it on the screen,

00:05:48.680 but it shows that over time,

00:05:51.840 women, like we think that women now 1.00

00:05:54.440 are employed in the workforce

00:05:56.820 at higher rates than they were historically,

00:05:59.320 which is true.

00:06:00.200 They are employed now at the workforce

00:06:01.540 at higher rates than they were like in the 50s.

00:06:04.360 But if you go back before that,

00:06:07.140 increasingly you see higher and higher rates

00:06:09.640 of women participation in the workforce.

00:06:11.720 And what we really had

00:06:12.880 was just a slump of female participation 0.97

00:06:15.200 in the workforce

00:06:16.020 when jobs began to take people out of the home.

00:06:19.540 So what we're actually seeing

00:06:21.220 when people are modeling

00:06:22.540 these stay-at-home wife scenarios 0.95

00:06:24.700 is they think they are modeling

00:06:26.460 a traditional lifestyle

00:06:27.700 when they really are not modeling

00:06:29.600 a traditional lifestyle.

00:06:30.760 They're modeling an incredibly indulgent lifestyle

00:06:34.660 that was signaled by 1950s Hollywood

00:06:37.220 and is just as indulgent as any lifestyle today

00:06:39.960 in 1950s Hollywood.

00:06:40.800 I don't know if you've ever seen like movies in the 80s,

00:06:42.580 but you look at them

00:06:43.140 and like everyone lives in a mansion.

00:06:44.540 Like you look at Home Alone.

00:06:45.560 Who lives in a house that large?

00:06:47.460 I really am watching the movie.

00:06:48.980 I'm like, what did they do for work?

00:06:51.760 Yeah.

00:06:52.420 It's in New York or something.

00:06:53.760 No, no, I don't remember.

00:06:54.680 But I remember it's in like a city too.

00:06:56.680 No, no, they're outside New York or something.

00:06:58.360 Yeah, I'm sorry, I forgot.

00:06:59.420 The Home Alone 2 is in New York.

00:07:00.900 So the comb clearly isn't in New York.

00:07:02.360 So the second thing is,

00:07:07.020 oh God, I can't remember what I was going to say.

00:07:12.220 Well, I would add one piece of an annotation,

00:07:15.140 which is when you have like five, six, seven children,

00:07:20.560 you know, having a stay-at-home parent

00:07:21.700 then becomes essentially a career

00:07:23.340 because you are doing homeschooling,

00:07:25.000 because you were doing household management

00:07:26.360 in like a totally different level.

00:07:27.940 You know, it's like,

00:07:28.780 you're no longer like cooking home meals.

00:07:30.700 You are a caterer.

00:07:32.040 So I would just say like normal people's

00:07:34.680 stay-at-home mom experience,

00:07:36.280 like the one that happens mostly

00:07:37.920 in mainstream developed nations

00:07:39.620 is like one or two kids,

00:07:41.320 which is indeed, as Malcolm describes,

00:07:43.360 like a luxury experience.

00:07:44.260 But when you're actually doing like six,

00:07:46.300 seven, eight kids,

00:07:47.060 that, you know, does become a different story.

00:07:50.620 So here's my theory about it,

00:07:52.760 which is I think like South Korea

00:07:54.160 is a really good example to dig down to it.

00:07:56.360 I think for most of history,

00:07:58.100 having an additional child

00:07:59.880 actually wasn't that much of a problem

00:08:01.980 to an already existing child,

00:08:03.220 provided that you could give them enough food.

00:08:05.300 But now the returns on education are quite high.

00:08:07.940 And actually we don't have super good theories

00:08:09.820 about how much parent investment helps with kids.

00:08:12.880 But we do see that the kids

00:08:14.460 who generally achieve better

00:08:15.640 do have parents who put like,

00:08:17.540 spend way more time with them.

00:08:18.480 Whether that's just like an effect of conscientiousness,

00:08:20.520 or if that's like the actual action

00:08:22.560 to the kid's benefit

00:08:23.280 is something I don't really know.

00:08:24.960 But I think South Korea

00:08:26.240 is definitely a country

00:08:27.140 where positional education and hard work

00:08:29.300 is really, really well rewarded

00:08:30.700 in the education system.

00:08:32.520 So like their tests

00:08:33.520 aren't really just IQ tests,

00:08:34.860 like, you know,

00:08:35.440 like the SAT can kind of be a proxy for.

00:08:37.700 So it really does help to study aggressively.

00:08:39.500 So by having a second child,

00:08:40.860 if you're not constantly reading to that kid

00:08:42.500 and constantly teaching that kid maths,

00:08:44.200 then you really are actually depriving your child.

00:08:46.080 I think to some extent,

00:08:46.920 it is a rational approach

00:08:48.240 to the education systems

00:08:49.540 as set up in some of these countries.

00:08:51.520 I agree and disagree.

00:08:53.240 So I'm going,

00:08:54.060 I happen to be,

00:08:54.920 I think that this is the intuition.

00:08:56.440 I think what you are describing

00:08:57.600 is why people are making

00:08:59.540 these decisions frequently.

00:09:01.400 However,

00:09:02.000 the intuition is wrong from the data.

00:09:04.620 We can look at economic

00:09:06.180 and educational outcomes

00:09:07.660 by number of siblings.

00:09:09.360 And what we find is that

00:09:11.540 when you go,

00:09:12.660 I seem to remember like

00:09:13.700 up to like two to three siblings,

00:09:16.100 every sibling actually helps a little

00:09:18.000 or at least isn't negative.

00:09:20.820 You really,

00:09:21.500 siblings really only begin

00:09:22.820 to deleteriously affect

00:09:23.980 their other siblings.

00:09:24.660 I think when you're going above three

00:09:26.700 and then the effect

00:09:28.080 is incredibly small.

00:09:29.540 So you have this intuition,

00:09:31.540 which I think once you're a parent,

00:09:33.420 like I would say this

00:09:34.520 because I know

00:09:35.620 we have a number of parents

00:09:36.540 with a lot of kids

00:09:37.700 who watch our podcast

00:09:38.840 and it's sort of the thing

00:09:41.060 that every parent goes through

00:09:42.220 when they have a lot of kids

00:09:43.220 is with the first kid,

00:09:44.400 you put astronomical amounts

00:09:45.880 of time into them

00:09:46.580 and stuff like that.

00:09:47.680 The second kid,

00:09:48.540 a little bit less.

00:09:49.580 By the time you're on kid three,

00:09:50.720 you're like, 0.99

00:09:50.960 oh shit, 1.00

00:09:51.460 like I really don't need 1.00

00:09:53.020 to worry about potty training them

00:09:54.320 because they're going to figure it out.

00:09:55.960 You're like,

00:09:56.220 I don't really.

00:09:56.740 My mother we were just talking with

00:09:58.100 said like by the time

00:09:59.620 I had the fourth kid,

00:10:00.440 I'm just making sure

00:10:01.200 he's not going to bed

00:10:02.180 with something like a choking hazard

00:10:03.660 in his mouth.

00:10:04.680 Like,

00:10:05.300 you know.

00:10:06.640 But I think that's what we're seeing here

00:10:08.120 is so much of how kids turn out

00:10:09.860 is really just genetics

00:10:11.040 and their peer group,

00:10:12.380 which you actually create

00:10:14.160 and influence

00:10:14.820 through having a large number of kids.

00:10:16.400 So that's,

00:10:18.820 that's I think a really good point

00:10:20.300 and one that hopefully

00:10:21.000 we can dispel a myth around.

00:10:22.300 But the other thing

00:10:22.880 and the reason I think

00:10:23.740 this data is so important

00:10:25.740 is so many people's intuition

00:10:27.920 is we just need to go back

00:10:29.460 to the old ways 0.70

00:10:30.420 or what they perceive

00:10:31.660 as the old ways.

00:10:32.440 And so one,

00:10:32.900 I said one of the problems

00:10:33.640 is you might misperceive

00:10:34.820 the old ways,

00:10:35.260 but also the social

00:10:36.480 and technological environment

00:10:37.680 we are in is different.

00:10:39.800 And it is as important here

00:10:41.580 when we talk about,

00:10:42.460 you know,

00:10:43.200 is being a stay-at-home mother

00:10:44.660 like the optimal choice

00:10:46.480 to promote societally.

00:10:48.960 Now, I think individually

00:10:49.900 it's a great choice,

00:10:51.160 but I think that there's

00:10:52.120 a lot of conservative influencers

00:10:53.380 who think they're helping

00:10:54.280 the prenatalist cause

00:10:55.220 and are promoting it

00:10:56.300 for everyone

00:10:57.100 who intends to have kids.

00:10:58.400 And that's where I think

00:10:59.320 it's really deleterious.

00:11:00.700 And then the second thing

00:11:01.880 is that,

00:11:05.180 that,

00:11:05.640 so,

00:11:06.400 sorry,

00:11:07.180 the other area

00:11:08.380 I think we see this

00:11:09.160 and we're always advocating

00:11:09.860 for this on our show

00:11:10.760 is fertility rates

00:11:12.200 are falling pretty dramatically.

00:11:14.660 And so,

00:11:15.140 some conservative practices

00:11:16.680 that used to increase fertility 0.99

00:11:18.200 like,

00:11:19.160 okay,

00:11:19.440 let's say

00:11:20.140 contraception bans,

00:11:21.780 right?

00:11:22.020 Like,

00:11:22.240 let's ban contraception

00:11:23.540 and then that comes to like,

00:11:25.700 okay,

00:11:26.040 you start to virtue signal

00:11:27.500 around that

00:11:28.000 and you're like,

00:11:28.380 I think even an embryo

00:11:30.320 is a human life

00:11:31.220 and therefore I think

00:11:32.080 IVF is bad.

00:11:33.500 And now,

00:11:34.140 something that historically

00:11:35.120 would have increased

00:11:36.040 fertility rates,

00:11:37.300 a belief that life

00:11:38.220 begins at an embryo

00:11:39.420 is now dramatically

00:11:41.140 decreasing fertility rates

00:11:42.360 because it's so hard

00:11:43.380 to get pregnant naturally.

00:11:45.740 Yeah,

00:11:46.300 no,

00:11:46.440 I'm completely with you.

00:11:47.520 I definitely think

00:11:48.500 the fact that people

00:11:49.680 misperceive the past

00:11:51.240 is like a massive thing

00:11:52.540 that happens here as well.

00:11:53.760 I think people definitely

00:11:54.840 have this sense

00:11:55.600 that historically

00:11:56.420 women just were like 1.00

00:11:57.320 only focusing on childcare

00:11:58.700 as if like,

00:12:00.240 as if like household maintenance

00:12:01.720 wasn't itself

00:12:02.720 basically a full-time job

00:12:04.040 in a way that it just isn't now.

00:12:05.620 And the other thing is,

00:12:07.220 sure,

00:12:07.640 maybe,

00:12:08.080 maybe spending lots of time

00:12:09.540 with your mother

00:12:10.060 is like a really great thing

00:12:11.220 for you as a child.

00:12:12.120 But growing up

00:12:13.180 in a poorer household

00:12:14.080 is almost definitely

00:12:15.320 not better for you.

00:12:16.400 So it depends completely

00:12:17.440 on your own family's

00:12:18.380 financial circumstances

00:12:19.420 whether or not

00:12:20.020 being a stay-at-home mother 0.89

00:12:20.900 is even better for your kids.

00:12:22.640 Well,

00:12:22.820 and a note

00:12:23.320 because when we were

00:12:24.160 first planning our family

00:12:25.340 like way before

00:12:26.060 we ever had our first kid,

00:12:27.480 we actually wanted

00:12:28.380 to look really closely

00:12:29.200 like is it better

00:12:30.740 for a mother to stay at home 1.00

00:12:31.980 or to leave?

00:12:33.500 I mean,

00:12:33.800 you know,

00:12:34.000 we just wanted to know

00:12:35.220 like if there was

00:12:35.860 any conclusive research.

00:12:36.700 Yeah,

00:12:36.780 what the data says.

00:12:37.540 Yeah,

00:12:38.160 and basically

00:12:38.960 there isn't exactly

00:12:40.260 conclusive research

00:12:41.160 and you can find

00:12:41.800 some studies

00:12:42.480 that suggest

00:12:43.160 sort of one way

00:12:44.060 or the other

00:12:44.560 but ultimately

00:12:45.800 it seems like

00:12:47.100 it's slightly better

00:12:48.700 if anything

00:12:49.280 for the mother to work 1.00

00:12:50.280 especially if you have daughters

00:12:51.780 because the more important thing

00:12:53.280 is to demonstrate

00:12:54.380 to daughters

00:12:56.020 that you can go out

00:12:57.280 and work

00:12:57.740 and it's sort of empowering

00:12:58.720 to see that their mother works

00:12:59.920 and has,

00:13:00.500 you know,

00:13:00.720 a real life,

00:13:01.740 you know,

00:13:01.900 so beyond just being a mother

00:13:03.300 and I think that's

00:13:04.940 that's telling

00:13:05.700 and it makes a lot of sense.

00:13:06.540 I would think also

00:13:07.540 that my supposition

00:13:09.700 of why this isn't

00:13:10.620 just so obviously

00:13:11.480 in favor of mothers

00:13:12.260 staying at home

00:13:12.960 is I think especially

00:13:14.120 in the modern age

00:13:15.580 a lot of mothers

00:13:16.160 staying at home

00:13:16.780 get pretty depressed

00:13:17.840 and demotivated

00:13:18.980 so to have a mother

00:13:20.000 who's kind of

00:13:20.480 pumped out and bored

00:13:21.500 or neurotic

00:13:22.340 or living through

00:13:23.040 their children

00:13:23.520 because they're,

00:13:24.280 you know,

00:13:24.840 helicopter parenting

00:13:25.560 and they don't have

00:13:26.680 anything else in their lives

00:13:27.520 could be damaging

00:13:28.540 so even though

00:13:29.320 maybe a lot of kids

00:13:30.340 who have stay-at-home mothers

00:13:31.180 are getting a lot of support,

00:13:32.500 they're also getting

00:13:33.000 micromanaged a ton,

00:13:34.380 there's too much pressure

00:13:35.080 on them

00:13:35.520 so yeah,

00:13:36.420 I mean,

00:13:36.980 even that

00:13:37.560 is really interesting

00:13:38.940 and it surprised us.

00:13:40.580 Yeah,

00:13:40.760 I have an alternate hypothesis

00:13:43.140 as to what's going on here

00:13:44.400 and I should be clear

00:13:47.000 that this is,

00:13:47.760 I think,

00:13:48.100 a really sort of sad study

00:13:49.540 because I think

00:13:50.520 a lot of women, 1.00

00:13:51.240 they think they're making

00:13:51.960 this enormous sacrifice

00:13:53.120 and it's going to have

00:13:53.800 this enormous positive effect

00:13:55.220 for their kids

00:13:55.840 because to some women 1.00

00:13:56.820 this is a sacrifice

00:13:57.700 to them,

00:13:58.080 not to all women,

00:13:58.940 to some women

00:13:59.340 they prefer to be stay-at-home moms 1.00

00:14:00.360 but some women 1.00

00:14:01.160 are like,

00:14:01.500 I'm giving up a career

00:14:02.300 that I would have preferred

00:14:03.040 to have

00:14:03.600 and so this is the type

00:14:05.240 of study that you have

00:14:05.980 to lay very gingerly

00:14:07.680 that shows actually

00:14:08.360 you probably hurt your kids

00:14:09.440 by making that choice

00:14:10.200 and that's really sad,

00:14:12.380 you know,

00:14:12.700 but I think that the reason is

00:14:14.700 and it comes back

00:14:15.360 to what I was saying earlier

00:14:16.480 which is kids seem

00:14:18.300 to develop best

00:14:19.640 with minimum amounts

00:14:21.400 of outside interference

00:14:22.880 and unfortunately,

00:14:25.180 I also think that women 1.00

00:14:26.360 who are disproportionately

00:14:27.240 drawn to stay-at-home roles

00:14:29.220 especially if they have

00:14:30.620 small families

00:14:31.360 which a lot of these women 1.00

00:14:32.240 have right now

00:14:32.920 are the narcissistic type parents

00:14:35.060 who want to completely

00:14:37.040 laud over their children's life

00:14:39.240 and helicopter parent

00:14:40.220 and that's what we're seeing.

00:14:41.360 You know,

00:14:41.520 as a woman's other tasks, 1.00

00:14:43.480 you know,

00:14:43.680 whether it's laundry

00:14:44.440 or something like that

00:14:45.220 got automated,

00:14:46.420 they had more and more free time

00:14:48.380 as Simone was pointing to

00:14:49.600 and all of that free time

00:14:51.840 got directed on

00:14:53.360 hovering over children

00:14:55.360 and that seems to have

00:14:58.000 negative psychological effects.

00:15:00.220 In other places

00:15:00.920 where you can see this,

00:15:01.800 like if we're talking

00:15:02.220 about related studies

00:15:03.160 that seem to indicate

00:15:03.860 that this is probably true

00:15:04.620 there's this great study

00:15:05.480 on kids going to kindergarten

00:15:07.100 and trying to teach them

00:15:08.180 language earlier,

00:15:09.140 trying to teach them

00:15:09.820 reading earlier

00:15:10.880 and it found out

00:15:12.000 this state

00:15:12.900 for poor kids in the state,

00:15:14.300 I want to say it was like Ohio

00:15:15.100 or somewhere in the

00:15:15.900 central United States,

00:15:17.000 they made pre-kindergarten free

00:15:18.780 focused on teaching

00:15:20.100 early reading

00:15:21.140 and they thought

00:15:22.020 they had done this amazing thing

00:15:23.360 for like the poor

00:15:24.280 and then longitudinal studies

00:15:26.320 were done

00:15:26.660 and it turned out

00:15:27.460 it like put these kids behind

00:15:28.600 like a year and a half,

00:15:29.860 which is to say

00:15:30.700 that if you force a kid

00:15:32.040 to learn something

00:15:32.860 before they're ready

00:15:33.700 or you force a kid

00:15:34.560 to engage with ideas

00:15:35.600 before they're ready,

00:15:36.780 it actually has

00:15:37.460 pretty significant

00:15:38.460 deleterious effects.

00:15:40.620 We have actually

00:15:41.200 pretty similar data

00:15:42.120 in the UK.

00:15:43.120 So the UK has

00:15:44.440 for lots of reasons

00:15:45.280 got incredibly,

00:15:46.200 incredibly expensive

00:15:47.160 childcare,

00:15:47.900 but one of the reasons

00:15:48.660 is it's very tightly regulated

00:15:50.340 and the regulations

00:15:51.540 they involve things

00:15:52.320 like making sure

00:15:53.040 that a child

00:15:53.580 is like learning

00:15:54.400 to hold objects,

00:15:56.040 learning to speak

00:15:56.580 because obviously

00:15:56.980 this is early years

00:15:58.040 foundation stages

00:15:58.680 from baby up to school age

00:16:00.120 and the Department

00:16:01.180 for Education

00:16:01.740 recently monitored

00:16:02.640 the outcomes

00:16:03.160 of children

00:16:03.600 who were in nurseries

00:16:04.540 or child blinding,

00:16:05.440 so regulated sectors

00:16:06.820 or children

00:16:07.260 who were staying

00:16:07.740 at home with their parents

00:16:08.620 and they found

00:16:09.340 that actually

00:16:09.840 the early years

00:16:10.380 curriculum

00:16:10.720 is slightly negative

00:16:12.280 compared to just

00:16:13.620 staying at home

00:16:14.220 in I think

00:16:15.160 informal childcare.

00:16:16.760 Wow.

00:16:17.760 Obviously that could be

00:16:18.680 a selection effect,

00:16:19.380 but it's also terrifying

00:16:21.800 to me that in the UK

00:16:22.820 like you can't just

00:16:23.980 like pay a teenager

00:16:25.760 a good responsible one

00:16:27.000 like to just watch

00:16:27.740 your kids.

00:16:28.360 That's wild.

00:16:30.420 It was because

00:16:31.260 a couple kids

00:16:32.040 ended up killing

00:16:32.740 another kid

00:16:33.220 in some daycare.

00:16:34.140 No, no, no,

00:16:34.460 not daycare

00:16:34.940 but like probably

00:16:35.600 while they were

00:16:36.140 being babysat,

00:16:37.020 so.

00:16:37.740 Yeah.

00:16:38.020 I think it was part

00:16:38.740 of Tony Blair's

00:16:39.540 like education,

00:16:40.340 education,

00:16:40.840 education push

00:16:41.900 because it started

00:16:42.480 in 2006.

00:16:44.440 My theory for it

00:16:45.280 is that British elites

00:16:46.140 have three beliefs

00:16:47.140 that are very difficult

00:16:48.280 to square with each other

00:16:50.300 which is one of them

00:16:51.640 which is that

00:16:52.220 biodeterminism

00:16:53.100 is completely false

00:16:54.000 that a child's outcomes

00:16:55.020 are based wholly

00:16:56.160 on their environment.

00:16:58.280 Second,

00:16:59.180 the inequality is bad

00:17:00.500 so the fact that

00:17:01.120 children from different

00:17:02.020 households

00:17:02.860 have different outcomes

00:17:03.920 is genuinely negative

00:17:05.200 is like a genuinely

00:17:05.980 like really bad thing

00:17:06.740 to happen

00:17:07.160 and three,

00:17:08.780 the education

00:17:09.680 can basically fix

00:17:11.840 all of these ends

00:17:12.900 so that when you see

00:17:13.840 that children who go

00:17:14.520 to the same schools

00:17:15.460 end up having

00:17:16.180 different outcomes

00:17:16.940 based on their

00:17:17.460 parents' backgrounds

00:17:18.180 the best theory

00:17:19.200 that then comes to mind

00:17:20.100 is oh it's about

00:17:21.000 what's going on

00:17:21.580 slightly before school

00:17:22.520 which I think is why

00:17:23.600 so much energy

00:17:24.660 is poured into

00:17:25.240 the early years

00:17:25.740 foundation stage.

00:17:27.580 That makes a lot of sense.

00:17:29.440 That makes a lot of sense

00:17:30.280 and it also

00:17:31.140 obviously it doesn't work

00:17:34.040 and it seems to make

00:17:34.840 things worse

00:17:35.380 so yeah I think

00:17:37.160 that with a lot

00:17:38.100 of this stuff

00:17:38.640 in the modern era

00:17:39.340 the cool thing is

00:17:40.180 is the data

00:17:40.760 is out there

00:17:41.520 and people

00:17:41.940 like look

00:17:44.220 we don't trust

00:17:45.140 academia any more

00:17:46.080 than the next guy

00:17:46.820 right

00:17:47.140 but I feel like

00:17:48.300 I'm pretty good

00:17:48.720 at knowing

00:17:49.080 when academics

00:17:49.740 are lying in papers

00:17:50.800 like I'm good enough

00:17:52.100 at going through the data

00:17:52.880 so either you can

00:17:53.500 go through yourself

00:17:54.120 and look through it

00:17:54.740 and you can develop

00:17:55.460 patterns around this

00:17:56.280 or you can just

00:17:57.380 sort of trust us

00:17:58.340 as people who

00:17:58.760 genuinely want

00:17:59.460 what's best

00:17:59.820 for our own kids

00:18:00.540 and to take over

00:18:01.800 the world right

00:18:02.320 so

00:18:02.620 it's very easy

00:18:03.980 to track the

00:18:04.460 social conservatism thing

00:18:05.520 just go to the

00:18:06.440 OECD website

00:18:07.180 and then go to

00:18:07.700 the world value survey

00:18:08.640 it takes about like

00:18:09.460 I'm going to say

00:18:09.880 15 minutes

00:18:10.600 to just do a quick graph

00:18:11.940 well also like

00:18:13.120 you're telling people

00:18:13.760 how to do it as well

00:18:14.480 right

00:18:14.640 like go out there

00:18:15.640 do it for yourself

00:18:16.100 it's the same

00:18:16.580 with multiple

00:18:17.540 siblings things

00:18:18.220 this intuition

00:18:18.940 that if I spend

00:18:20.440 less time on a kid

00:18:21.460 that's going to

00:18:22.140 hurt the kid

00:18:22.720 again you can just 0.88

00:18:24.380 look like this

00:18:25.040 is a really

00:18:25.480 replicated finding

00:18:26.220 you are hurting

00:18:26.960 the kid by spending

00:18:27.880 additional time

00:18:28.660 on them

00:18:29.000 and this can be

00:18:30.300 a really interesting

00:18:31.160 thing for

00:18:32.060 a husband

00:18:33.220 who has a wife

00:18:34.280 who is overbearing

00:18:35.900 to work on

00:18:37.060 you know

00:18:37.500 to an extent

00:18:38.580 you're in charge

00:18:39.080 of protecting your kids

00:18:40.180 something we've noted

00:18:41.880 here about stay-at-home

00:18:42.700 moms

00:18:42.960 and this is another

00:18:43.740 thing like okay

00:18:44.300 do I want to have

00:18:44.760 a stay-at-home wife 0.99

00:18:45.440 you know

00:18:45.760 go out there

00:18:46.560 look at the data

00:18:47.440 look at the outcomes

00:18:48.580 but

00:18:49.560 I think

00:18:53.640 it's important

00:18:54.740 to remember

00:18:55.460 that like

00:18:56.000 if you have

00:18:57.000 two kids

00:18:57.740 and you are

00:18:58.260 a stay-at-home wife 1.00

00:18:59.260 you're gonna go crazy

00:19:00.900 because you're not

00:19:01.500 really doing anything

00:19:02.640 when you have

00:19:03.860 like eight kids

00:19:04.780 or nine kids

00:19:05.760 that's a completely

00:19:06.600 different thing

00:19:07.380 and we want to make sure

00:19:08.100 that we are not

00:19:08.900 conflating the two

00:19:10.020 but with that

00:19:11.160 being the case

00:19:11.960 this is also true

00:19:13.120 that we think

00:19:13.920 even a woman

00:19:14.440 who intends

00:19:14.980 to become

00:19:15.380 a stay-at-home mom

00:19:16.260 like I think

00:19:17.160 that's a privilege

00:19:17.960 that women 0.97

00:19:18.640 can indulge in

00:19:19.840 once they're

00:19:20.740 a kid four

00:19:21.620 right

00:19:22.120 but I think

00:19:22.880 before that

00:19:23.900 it's pretty

00:19:24.960 indolent

00:19:25.500 to be a stay-at-home mom

00:19:26.600 that's my

00:19:27.260 overly spicy take

00:19:28.640 what's

00:19:32.500 what's so

00:19:32.980 interesting though

00:19:33.680 about the

00:19:34.240 the first

00:19:34.700 sub stack piece

00:19:35.300 you have

00:19:35.700 because it's

00:19:36.080 so counterintuitive

00:19:36.980 is you know

00:19:37.760 when you think

00:19:38.160 about progressive nations

00:19:39.580 you think about

00:19:40.060 progressive culture

00:19:40.780 being just

00:19:42.560 so sterilizing

00:19:43.780 you know

00:19:44.080 it's it's

00:19:44.580 these are very

00:19:45.460 very low birth rates

00:19:46.380 that progressive

00:19:46.800 people have

00:19:47.480 so it's

00:19:48.540 part of me wonders

00:19:49.320 if it's I mean

00:19:50.320 also more representative

00:19:52.020 of a nation

00:19:52.740 that on the whole

00:19:53.960 is not super conservative

00:19:55.120 but is actually

00:19:56.340 more diverse

00:19:57.120 so you've got more

00:19:58.000 like super

00:19:59.060 high-blind fundamentalists

00:20:00.340 who are having

00:20:00.780 tons of kids

00:20:01.480 and then a bunch

00:20:01.980 of super progressives

00:20:03.400 who aren't

00:20:03.940 but I'm wondering

00:20:05.340 like what your thoughts

00:20:06.200 are on that

00:20:06.720 I'm like

00:20:07.100 why are

00:20:09.360 yeah

00:20:09.900 what's going on

00:20:10.880 I suspect

00:20:11.620 it probably

00:20:12.440 isn't

00:20:13.240 like Sweden

00:20:14.340 has like

00:20:15.040 a large handful

00:20:16.060 of like super

00:20:16.820 fundamentalists

00:20:17.540 I suspect

00:20:17.960 it really is

00:20:18.580 just about people

00:20:20.200 being more likely

00:20:21.240 to have two or three

00:20:22.060 kids versus one or two

00:20:23.320 like that's kind of

00:20:24.460 the range we're thinking

00:20:25.300 within in most

00:20:26.080 most rich countries

00:20:27.220 and so

00:20:28.180 I don't think

00:20:29.220 it probably is that

00:20:30.120 my guess

00:20:31.200 is also that people

00:20:31.960 have very bad

00:20:32.700 intuitions about

00:20:33.520 which countries

00:20:34.320 have low birth rates

00:20:35.700 so I think

00:20:36.560 most people

00:20:36.940 would be surprised

00:20:37.720 to know that India

00:20:38.360 is currently

00:20:38.800 a replacement rate

00:20:39.640 below replacement rate

00:20:42.160 yeah

00:20:42.820 as of this year

00:20:43.720 yeah

00:20:43.940 and I think

00:20:45.240 it's going to fall

00:20:45.740 pretty quickly

00:20:46.240 from where it is now

00:20:47.560 which is a shame

00:20:48.560 yeah

00:20:49.560 yeah I think people

00:20:51.940 I guess they

00:20:52.800 there's a lot of

00:20:53.780 conflation of population

00:20:54.780 size with birth rate

00:20:55.860 and it's going to take us

00:20:56.600 a really long time

00:20:57.560 to get around that

00:20:58.240 yeah I think so

00:20:59.620 I guess also

00:21:00.700 it is definitely true

00:21:02.120 that more conservative

00:21:03.360 people at the very least

00:21:04.380 in the anglosphere

00:21:05.280 do have higher birth rates

00:21:07.820 so I guess

00:21:08.800 it like it kind of

00:21:09.820 that's another reason

00:21:10.660 why it makes intuitive sense

00:21:11.900 and I don't actually

00:21:12.780 have a great way

00:21:13.440 of squaring that

00:21:14.260 hmm

00:21:15.040 so I do

00:21:16.500 I think that there is

00:21:17.460 a big difference

00:21:18.240 between being a conservative

00:21:19.660 individual

00:21:20.300 from a minority

00:21:21.260 conservative group

00:21:22.480 and being in a

00:21:24.020 conservative

00:21:24.600 normative environment

00:21:26.100 right

00:21:26.560 and I think that

00:21:27.280 the conservative

00:21:27.920 normative environment

00:21:29.140 actually hurts

00:21:30.360 conservative individuals

00:21:31.860 within the country

00:21:32.580 in terms of their

00:21:33.220 fertility rate

00:21:33.900 and this is something

00:21:35.280 that a lot of conservatives

00:21:36.100 it might be heartening

00:21:37.440 it might be disheartening

00:21:38.320 what it means

00:21:39.000 is if you win

00:21:40.120 if you win the culture wars

00:21:42.400 the person who suffers

00:21:43.900 the most from your winning

00:21:45.420 is your cultural group

00:21:48.000 your people

00:21:48.820 it is the feeling

00:21:50.620 like a discriminated 0.94

00:21:51.780 minority group

00:21:52.580 which is likely

00:21:53.600 helping your fertility rate

00:21:54.900 and protecting

00:21:55.880 your culture

00:21:57.620 intergenerationally

00:21:58.780 when your culture

00:21:59.720 feels like it is

00:22:00.920 in control of the state

00:22:02.260 it will degrade

00:22:03.500 and become soft

00:22:04.560 much faster

00:22:05.380 because you will feel

00:22:06.760 like you have less

00:22:07.620 to protect yourself from

00:22:08.840 and you will

00:22:09.600 you know

00:22:10.120 I think

00:22:11.400 let go of a lot

00:22:12.600 of the cultural

00:22:13.260 hygiene related stuff

00:22:14.820 I guess I'd call it

00:22:15.540 like the

00:22:15.860 in other words

00:22:16.500 you're describing

00:22:17.580 sort of like a push

00:22:18.380 versus pull culture

00:22:19.520 right

00:22:19.880 like if you're

00:22:20.400 in the minority culture

00:22:21.340 that you know

00:22:23.200 encourages high birth rates

00:22:24.360 it's kind of like

00:22:25.440 carrot rather than

00:22:26.220 a stick to have kids

00:22:27.100 because you know

00:22:27.620 you can sort of

00:22:28.260 stand out

00:22:29.240 and be cool

00:22:29.780 and be special

00:22:30.440 and really help

00:22:31.620 yeah

00:22:31.980 think about it this way

00:22:33.440 okay suppose you're

00:22:34.020 a tradcath right

00:22:34.740 if you're a tradcath

00:22:36.200 in a semi-hostile

00:22:37.600 governance system

00:22:39.020 like the United States

00:22:40.060 right

00:22:40.440 your perception

00:22:41.920 of being a tradcath

00:22:43.620 is going to be

00:22:44.080 that's your unique

00:22:44.800 cultural identity

00:22:45.560 and every kid you have

00:22:46.660 actually matters a lot

00:22:47.720 because it's

00:22:48.540 it's your community

00:22:49.480 that you're adding

00:22:50.080 that kid to

00:22:50.700 it's your church

00:22:52.280 it's your you know

00:22:53.200 however

00:22:54.020 if you are a tradcath

00:22:55.920 and your country

00:22:56.660 has catholic leadership

00:22:58.100 like it is

00:22:58.580 an officially

00:22:59.400 sanctioned catholic state

00:23:01.140 every kid you had

00:23:02.700 feels a lot less important

00:23:04.180 maintaining the rules

00:23:05.580 of your faith

00:23:06.200 feel a lot less important

00:23:07.420 because they're also

00:23:08.160 the rules of the state

00:23:09.240 this is one of the things

00:23:10.700 that we often point out

00:23:11.980 that it is really 0.56

00:23:12.920 silly 1.00

00:23:13.800 and kind of stupid 1.00

00:23:14.680 as a conservative 1.00

00:23:15.480 to fight for things

00:23:16.860 like banning pornography

00:23:18.380 even if your group

00:23:20.480 is anti-pornography

00:23:21.760 because through

00:23:23.140 banning pornography

00:23:24.080 the people who you're

00:23:25.120 helping the most

00:23:25.860 are your enemies

00:23:26.500 if you believe

00:23:27.040 that no pornography

00:23:27.660 is useful

00:23:28.160 you know you're

00:23:28.640 helping the secular

00:23:29.800 sphere and cultural groups

00:23:31.420 that were engaged

00:23:32.800 in being hurt

00:23:33.500 by pornography

00:23:34.200 but you're also

00:23:35.600 making the rules

00:23:37.280 that your culture

00:23:38.400 exercises

00:23:39.140 to lower pornography

00:23:40.380 consumption

00:23:41.720 less relevant

00:23:43.360 to every individual's

00:23:44.260 daily lives

00:23:44.880 and I think

00:23:45.360 individuals stick

00:23:46.260 with cultures better

00:23:47.320 the more they actually

00:23:49.140 have to choose

00:23:50.040 to suffer

00:23:50.680 to endure the rules

00:23:52.340 of that culture

00:23:53.040 I think that probably

00:23:56.660 makes sense

00:23:57.300 I would have like

00:23:58.300 one extra guess though

00:23:59.540 that actually

00:24:00.680 that we will see

00:24:02.080 these like

00:24:02.780 conservative right groups

00:24:04.060 within like say America

00:24:05.160 if they do come to dominate

00:24:06.680 that

00:24:07.460 they will be like

00:24:09.200 much more

00:24:10.220 like they are now

00:24:11.580 than they will be like

00:24:12.380 the sort of like

00:24:12.860 general American population

00:24:14.040 like I know that like

00:24:15.100 for example

00:24:15.800 like the Amish 1.00

00:24:16.440 has like a slightly

00:24:17.120 higher bleed rate

00:24:17.820 than it used to

00:24:18.460 and the Mormons

00:24:18.940 have a slightly higher

00:24:19.580 bleed rate than they used to

00:24:20.520 but I suspect

00:24:21.260 that the people

00:24:21.740 that will keep reproducing

00:24:22.780 at a high level

00:24:23.680 will be more

00:24:24.720 more like

00:24:25.480 like traditional Mormons 1.00

00:24:26.760 absolutely

00:24:27.760 especially because

00:24:29.300 you know the ones

00:24:29.860 who detract

00:24:30.600 are the ones

00:24:31.160 who don't have kids

00:24:31.940 and the ones

00:24:32.480 who do have kids

00:24:33.280 are the ones

00:24:33.560 who stay

00:24:33.940 I need to update

00:24:34.700 your intuition

00:24:35.220 the Amish actually

00:24:35.800 have a lower bleed rate

00:24:36.780 than they used to

00:24:37.400 the Mormons

00:24:38.840 have a higher bleed rate

00:24:39.840 than they used to

00:24:40.340 so Mormonism

00:24:41.840 right now

00:24:42.220 is basically

00:24:42.860 falling apart

00:24:43.600 so they're not

00:24:44.380 really useful

00:24:44.940 to learn anything

00:24:45.940 but like

00:24:46.440 don't do this lessons

00:24:47.700 Amish on the other hand

00:24:49.480 they have

00:24:50.400 intergenerationally

00:24:51.320 gotten to

00:24:51.680 like incredibly

00:24:52.760 low bleed rates

00:24:53.520 like 3%

00:24:55.100 intergenerationally

00:24:56.120 and that's just

00:24:57.100 to be

00:24:57.300 so I thought

00:24:59.200 as the Amish

00:25:00.300 basically

00:25:00.800 as they

00:25:01.260 as they had to

00:25:02.720 move off

00:25:03.320 like being like

00:25:04.000 purely like

00:25:04.580 agricultural

00:25:05.140 you get like

00:25:05.760 a small set of Amish

00:25:06.600 that have to interact

00:25:07.420 more and more

00:25:07.940 with the English

00:25:08.760 as they call it

00:25:09.440 and that group

00:25:10.440 has a lower birth rate

00:25:11.420 that group

00:25:11.800 oh yeah it does

00:25:12.760 yeah yeah yeah

00:25:13.380 so he's referring

00:25:14.420 more to strict Amish

00:25:16.220 and not so much

00:25:17.260 like the Mennonites 0.98

00:25:17.960 who have cell phones

00:25:18.720 Schwartz and Troopers

00:25:19.720 yeah yeah

00:25:20.640 they're called

00:25:21.540 anyway

00:25:21.960 was there anything else

00:25:25.080 you wanted to say

00:25:25.520 on this topic

00:25:25.900 I don't think so

00:25:26.980 I liked it

00:25:28.660 well I mean

00:25:29.020 I think this is just

00:25:29.720 really important

00:25:30.620 for people to know

00:25:31.280 because it is such

00:25:32.120 a non-intuitive thing

00:25:34.280 it is so important

00:25:35.460 from a pro-natalist

00:25:36.380 advocacy perspective

00:25:37.420 because it is

00:25:39.020 I think

00:25:39.620 in the same way

00:25:40.820 that progressives

00:25:41.520 the first thing

00:25:42.100 they want to say

00:25:42.900 is let in more immigrants

00:25:44.260 and you're like

00:25:44.620 well that actually

00:25:45.120 doesn't help

00:25:45.500 and then they go

00:25:45.940 well make

00:25:46.700 give people money

00:25:48.040 and give free child care

00:25:49.420 and you're like

00:25:49.720 well that doesn't work

00:25:50.560 and they're like

00:25:51.300 well all of the things 1.00

00:25:52.700 that supported the shit 0.99

00:25:53.540 I already wanted to do 0.98

00:25:54.560 don't work

00:25:55.260 and with conservatives

00:25:56.300 you have the similar instinct

00:25:57.280 which is

00:25:57.860 well go back to the way

00:25:58.780 things used to be

00:25:59.740 or at least the way

00:26:01.780 that they perceive

00:26:02.500 the way things used to be

00:26:03.620 and you're like

00:26:04.160 you know

00:26:04.600 you have to say

00:26:05.020 unfortunately

00:26:05.780 no

00:26:06.800 pro-natalism

00:26:07.860 as an agenda

00:26:08.580 doesn't allow you

00:26:09.460 to just push

00:26:10.100 whatever it is

00:26:10.760 that you were planning

00:26:11.380 to do beforehand

00:26:12.180 you actually need

00:26:13.000 to look at the data

00:26:13.840 and be very intentional

00:26:15.280 if you want to be

00:26:16.440 one of the groups

00:26:16.940 that survives

00:26:17.520 yeah

00:26:18.260 and we are so excited

00:26:19.740 to have you on

00:26:20.480 and I hope people

00:26:21.620 check out the substack

00:26:22.580 and I expect

00:26:23.640 many interesting things

00:26:24.720 from her in the future

Based Camp - November 29, 2023

Why ＂Socially Conservative＂ Nations Are Having Fewer Kids (Yes Really) With Aria Babu

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