Based Camp - November 29, 2023


Why ＂Socially Conservative＂ Nations Are Having Fewer Kids (Yes Really) With Aria Babu


Episode Stats

Length

26 minutes

Words per Minute

196.23798

Word Count

5,185

Sentence Count

131

Misogynist Sentences

22

Hate Speech Sentences

13


Summary

In this episode, I chat to Aria Babu, a leading conservative intellectual in the conservative intellectual movement in the UK, about her research on the link between social conservatism and birth rates and fertility rates. Aria has a PhD from the University of Warwick, and is currently working on a new sub-stack on the topic, and I'm so excited to have her on the show to talk about it.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 My theory for it is that British elites have three beliefs that are very difficult to square
00:00:05.320 with each other, which is one of them, which is that biodeterminism is completely false,
00:00:09.620 that a child's outcomes are based wholly on their environment.
00:00:13.840 Second, the inequality is bad.
00:00:16.180 So the fact that children from different households have different outcomes is genuinely negative,
00:00:21.040 is like a genuinely really bad thing to happen.
00:00:23.200 And three, the education can basically fix all of these ends.
00:00:28.520 So that when you see that children who go to the same schools end up having different outcomes
00:00:32.560 based on their parents' backgrounds, the best theory that then comes to mind is,
00:00:36.060 oh, it's about what's going on slightly before school,
00:00:38.300 which I think is why so much energy is poured into the early years' foundation stage.
00:00:42.360 Would you like to know more?
00:00:43.740 Hello! It is so exciting to be with you guys today.
00:00:48.660 I am really excited to bring someone who I feel we have scouted in talent scouting,
00:00:54.460 but it seems that all of the other rising conservative intellectuals also know her.
00:00:59.180 Aria Babu, who is sort of an underground key figure in the conservative intellectual movement in the UK.
00:01:08.560 And she recently started a sub-stack.
00:01:12.720 She's only one episode in, but I already love it.
00:01:15.400 I was actually planning to do an episode just on this chain of sub-stacks that she's releasing.
00:01:20.460 So do you want to start by going into this sub-stack that you're working on,
00:01:24.860 the first episode, and then we can expand from there?
00:01:28.420 Yeah, of course.
00:01:29.340 So my first piece was about how socially conservative countries
00:01:33.120 don't seem to have higher birth rates in socially liberal countries.
00:01:37.620 So the first look at the data, if you just look at the European Values Survey
00:01:41.240 and you compare that to just TFRs across these countries,
00:01:44.520 shows that actually the more socially conservative countries,
00:01:47.320 so we're looking at thinking like Italy and Spain, for example,
00:01:50.840 have lower birth rates than the more socially liberal ones.
00:01:52.800 We're thinking Scandinavian countries, France, Britain.
00:01:55.100 My second post, which I've already done the research for,
00:01:57.760 but I haven't published yet, then goes into asking why that might be the case.
00:02:01.980 So my first theory is that maybe more socially liberal countries
00:02:06.160 have better provision of childcare.
00:02:08.500 They have more public services that support motherhood.
00:02:10.860 So I looked at cost of childcare, number of parents who use it,
00:02:15.800 and yeah, both of those things, basically,
00:02:18.300 and also attitudes towards using childcare.
00:02:20.740 And it seems that those also have like literally no correlation
00:02:23.600 with birth rates in different countries.
00:02:26.080 And I remember seeing that in Austria,
00:02:28.460 the cost of a nursery place for two kids costs 3% of the average woman's income,
00:02:32.840 whereas in Switzerland, it costs 64%,
00:02:35.440 and those countries have the exact same birth rate.
00:02:38.100 Fascinating.
00:02:39.080 So that doesn't seem to make a difference.
00:02:40.580 And I was like, okay, what is another reason
00:02:42.040 why a more socially liberal country might have a higher birth rate?
00:02:45.680 Well, maybe it's because a more socially liberal country,
00:02:49.360 well, I was going to say maybe it's just because it's a nicer place to live.
00:02:51.720 That's actually like super unmeasurable.
00:02:53.380 I mean, maybe it is a nicer place to live, and that does make it easier,
00:02:55.640 but that kind of sounds like bullshit to me.
00:02:58.280 So then I thought, okay, what are the other correlates
00:03:00.920 that you might have between social conservatism and birth?
00:03:05.580 And I was wondering if maybe it's because the more you value motherhood,
00:03:09.080 the more you prize it, the more work it might be for people.
00:03:12.420 So it's very difficult to then try and pick out data
00:03:14.960 that suggests like how much work do you think children are?
00:03:18.060 But the closest I could find on the OECD stats site
00:03:21.120 is birth rates as correlated with the amount of time
00:03:24.800 that mothers spend with new babies.
00:03:26.640 Okay, okay.
00:03:27.800 And then you do get the correlation.
00:03:29.000 Then you get the correlation that pretty much maps
00:03:31.240 to the socially conservative to socially liberal correlation.
00:03:33.900 So that's my underlying theory currently,
00:03:35.720 which is that the more socially conservative people
00:03:37.720 also believe that having children is much more work.
00:03:40.660 And so just to be clear,
00:03:42.120 more socially conservative nations also report
00:03:44.840 higher amounts of time spent with new babies.
00:03:49.100 And is this in the form of maternity leave,
00:03:51.200 or is there some other measure of time spent?
00:03:53.540 So the stats I looked at was just number of hours that they spend.
00:03:57.240 Oh, like hours a day doing childcare.
00:03:59.560 So the OECD does classic polling,
00:04:02.500 which is how many hours do you spend in work?
00:04:03.940 How many hours do you spend in leisure?
00:04:05.280 How many hours do you spend in household labor in general?
00:04:08.500 And then, so then they looked at mothers of newborn women.
00:04:12.200 So this would-
00:04:12.860 Newborn babies.
00:04:13.800 Yeah, this would also correlate with something
00:04:15.620 that is really clear in the data.
00:04:19.120 It was this East Asian country,
00:04:20.640 the view control for income
00:04:22.860 have unusually low fertility rates.
00:04:25.460 And generally, the more conservative an East Asian country is,
00:04:29.760 the lower its fertility rate is going to be.
00:04:32.900 And something we keep hammering home on this show
00:04:36.280 when we bring up the East Asian sphere,
00:04:38.140 because it's something that I think
00:04:39.520 goes against a lot of Westerners' intuition,
00:04:42.280 is that East Asian countries are more socially conservative
00:04:45.720 than Western countries by a pretty dramatic amount.
00:04:49.160 And so this would also explain
00:04:51.800 why those countries have such low fertility rates,
00:04:55.340 which this has a lot of really interesting implications,
00:04:59.320 what you're finding.
00:05:00.140 So the first is something that, you know,
00:05:02.240 progressives don't want to hear,
00:05:04.020 which is that it turns out
00:05:05.280 that you're not actually helping
00:05:06.640 by subsidizing childcare.
00:05:08.460 That does not appear to matter.
00:05:10.580 But then the second is,
00:05:11.800 and this is a deleterious thing,
00:05:13.220 I keep seeing conservative influencers,
00:05:15.080 even ones who think of themselves
00:05:16.620 as pro-natal is advocating,
00:05:18.680 which is the stay-at-home mom lifestyle.
00:05:21.480 And what we are seeing here
00:05:23.420 is almost nothing other than wealth
00:05:26.980 negatively impacts fertility
00:05:29.180 as much as the expectation
00:05:32.040 of the stay-at-home mother lifestyle among mothers.
00:05:36.700 And there's two really interesting points
00:05:40.200 we can take away from this.
00:05:41.460 One, and we often point this out,
00:05:43.160 there was a great,
00:05:43.740 the Nobel Prize winner this year did a thing on this,
00:05:45.760 and I'm going to see if I can find the graph
00:05:47.720 and put it on the screen,
00:05:48.680 but it shows that over time,
00:05:51.840 women, like we think that women now
00:05:54.440 are employed in the workforce
00:05:56.820 at higher rates than they were historically,
00:05:59.320 which is true.
00:06:00.200 They are employed now at the workforce
00:06:01.540 at higher rates than they were like in the 50s.
00:06:04.360 But if you go back before that,
00:06:07.140 increasingly you see higher and higher rates
00:06:09.640 of women participation in the workforce.
00:06:11.720 And what we really had
00:06:12.880 was just a slump of female participation
00:06:15.200 in the workforce
00:06:16.020 when jobs began to take people out of the home.
00:06:19.540 So what we're actually seeing
00:06:21.220 when people are modeling
00:06:22.540 these stay-at-home wife scenarios
00:06:24.700 is they think they are modeling
00:06:26.460 a traditional lifestyle
00:06:27.700 when they really are not modeling
00:06:29.600 a traditional lifestyle.
00:06:30.760 They're modeling an incredibly indulgent lifestyle
00:06:34.660 that was signaled by 1950s Hollywood
00:06:37.220 and is just as indulgent as any lifestyle today
00:06:39.960 in 1950s Hollywood.
00:06:40.800 I don't know if you've ever seen like movies in the 80s,
00:06:42.580 but you look at them
00:06:43.140 and like everyone lives in a mansion.
00:06:44.540 Like you look at Home Alone.
00:06:45.560 Who lives in a house that large?
00:06:47.460 I really am watching the movie.
00:06:48.980 I'm like, what did they do for work?
00:06:51.760 Yeah.
00:06:52.420 It's in New York or something.
00:06:53.760 No, no, I don't remember.
00:06:54.680 But I remember it's in like a city too.
00:06:56.680 No, no, they're outside New York or something.
00:06:58.360 Yeah, I'm sorry, I forgot.
00:06:59.420 The Home Alone 2 is in New York.
00:07:00.900 So the comb clearly isn't in New York.
00:07:02.360 So the second thing is,
00:07:07.020 oh God, I can't remember what I was going to say.
00:07:12.220 Well, I would add one piece of an annotation,
00:07:15.140 which is when you have like five, six, seven children,
00:07:20.560 you know, having a stay-at-home parent
00:07:21.700 then becomes essentially a career
00:07:23.340 because you are doing homeschooling,
00:07:25.000 because you were doing household management
00:07:26.360 in like a totally different level.
00:07:27.940 You know, it's like,
00:07:28.780 you're no longer like cooking home meals.
00:07:30.700 You are a caterer.
00:07:32.040 So I would just say like normal people's
00:07:34.680 stay-at-home mom experience,
00:07:36.280 like the one that happens mostly
00:07:37.920 in mainstream developed nations
00:07:39.620 is like one or two kids,
00:07:41.320 which is indeed, as Malcolm describes,
00:07:43.360 like a luxury experience.
00:07:44.260 But when you're actually doing like six,
00:07:46.300 seven, eight kids,
00:07:47.060 that, you know, does become a different story.
00:07:50.620 So here's my theory about it,
00:07:52.760 which is I think like South Korea
00:07:54.160 is a really good example to dig down to it.
00:07:56.360 I think for most of history,
00:07:58.100 having an additional child
00:07:59.880 actually wasn't that much of a problem
00:08:01.980 to an already existing child,
00:08:03.220 provided that you could give them enough food.
00:08:05.300 But now the returns on education are quite high.
00:08:07.940 And actually we don't have super good theories
00:08:09.820 about how much parent investment helps with kids.
00:08:12.880 But we do see that the kids
00:08:14.460 who generally achieve better
00:08:15.640 do have parents who put like,
00:08:17.540 spend way more time with them.
00:08:18.480 Whether that's just like an effect of conscientiousness,
00:08:20.520 or if that's like the actual action
00:08:22.560 to the kid's benefit
00:08:23.280 is something I don't really know.
00:08:24.960 But I think South Korea
00:08:26.240 is definitely a country
00:08:27.140 where positional education and hard work
00:08:29.300 is really, really well rewarded
00:08:30.700 in the education system.
00:08:32.520 So like their tests
00:08:33.520 aren't really just IQ tests,
00:08:34.860 like, you know,
00:08:35.440 like the SAT can kind of be a proxy for.
00:08:37.700 So it really does help to study aggressively.
00:08:39.500 So by having a second child,
00:08:40.860 if you're not constantly reading to that kid
00:08:42.500 and constantly teaching that kid maths,
00:08:44.200 then you really are actually depriving your child.
00:08:46.080 I think to some extent,
00:08:46.920 it is a rational approach
00:08:48.240 to the education systems
00:08:49.540 as set up in some of these countries.
00:08:51.520 I agree and disagree.
00:08:53.240 So I'm going,
00:08:54.060 I happen to be,
00:08:54.920 I think that this is the intuition.
00:08:56.440 I think what you are describing
00:08:57.600 is why people are making
00:08:59.540 these decisions frequently.
00:09:01.400 However,
00:09:02.000 the intuition is wrong from the data.
00:09:04.620 We can look at economic
00:09:06.180 and educational outcomes
00:09:07.660 by number of siblings.
00:09:09.360 And what we find is that
00:09:11.540 when you go,
00:09:12.660 I seem to remember like
00:09:13.700 up to like two to three siblings,
00:09:16.100 every sibling actually helps a little
00:09:18.000 or at least isn't negative.
00:09:20.820 You really,
00:09:21.500 siblings really only begin
00:09:22.820 to deleteriously affect
00:09:23.980 their other siblings.
00:09:24.660 I think when you're going above three
00:09:26.700 and then the effect
00:09:28.080 is incredibly small.
00:09:29.540 So you have this intuition,
00:09:31.540 which I think once you're a parent,
00:09:33.420 like I would say this
00:09:34.520 because I know
00:09:35.620 we have a number of parents
00:09:36.540 with a lot of kids
00:09:37.700 who watch our podcast
00:09:38.840 and it's sort of the thing
00:09:41.060 that every parent goes through
00:09:42.220 when they have a lot of kids
00:09:43.220 is with the first kid,
00:09:44.400 you put astronomical amounts
00:09:45.880 of time into them
00:09:46.580 and stuff like that.
00:09:47.680 The second kid,
00:09:48.540 a little bit less.
00:09:49.580 By the time you're on kid three,
00:09:50.720 you're like,
00:09:50.960 oh shit,
00:09:51.460 like I really don't need
00:09:53.020 to worry about potty training them
00:09:54.320 because they're going to figure it out.
00:09:55.960 You're like,
00:09:56.220 I don't really.
00:09:56.740 My mother we were just talking with
00:09:58.100 said like by the time
00:09:59.620 I had the fourth kid,
00:10:00.440 I'm just making sure
00:10:01.200 he's not going to bed
00:10:02.180 with something like a choking hazard
00:10:03.660 in his mouth.
00:10:04.680 Like,
00:10:05.300 you know.
00:10:06.640 But I think that's what we're seeing here
00:10:08.120 is so much of how kids turn out
00:10:09.860 is really just genetics
00:10:11.040 and their peer group,
00:10:12.380 which you actually create
00:10:14.160 and influence
00:10:14.820 through having a large number of kids.
00:10:16.400 So that's,
00:10:18.820 that's I think a really good point
00:10:20.300 and one that hopefully
00:10:21.000 we can dispel a myth around.
00:10:22.300 But the other thing
00:10:22.880 and the reason I think
00:10:23.740 this data is so important
00:10:25.740 is so many people's intuition
00:10:27.920 is we just need to go back
00:10:29.460 to the old ways
00:10:30.420 or what they perceive
00:10:31.660 as the old ways.
00:10:32.440 And so one,
00:10:32.900 I said one of the problems
00:10:33.640 is you might misperceive
00:10:34.820 the old ways,
00:10:35.260 but also the social
00:10:36.480 and technological environment
00:10:37.680 we are in is different.
00:10:39.800 And it is as important here
00:10:41.580 when we talk about,
00:10:42.460 you know,
00:10:43.200 is being a stay-at-home mother
00:10:44.660 like the optimal choice
00:10:46.480 to promote societally.
00:10:48.960 Now, I think individually
00:10:49.900 it's a great choice,
00:10:51.160 but I think that there's
00:10:52.120 a lot of conservative influencers
00:10:53.380 who think they're helping
00:10:54.280 the prenatalist cause
00:10:55.220 and are promoting it
00:10:56.300 for everyone
00:10:57.100 who intends to have kids.
00:10:58.400 And that's where I think
00:10:59.320 it's really deleterious.
00:11:00.700 And then the second thing
00:11:01.880 is that,
00:11:05.180 that,
00:11:05.640 so,
00:11:06.400 sorry,
00:11:07.180 the other area
00:11:08.380 I think we see this
00:11:09.160 and we're always advocating
00:11:09.860 for this on our show
00:11:10.760 is fertility rates
00:11:12.200 are falling pretty dramatically.
00:11:14.660 And so,
00:11:15.140 some conservative practices
00:11:16.680 that used to increase fertility
00:11:18.200 like,
00:11:19.160 okay,
00:11:19.440 let's say
00:11:20.140 contraception bans,
00:11:21.780 right?
00:11:22.020 Like,
00:11:22.240 let's ban contraception
00:11:23.540 and then that comes to like,
00:11:25.700 okay,
00:11:26.040 you start to virtue signal
00:11:27.500 around that
00:11:28.000 and you're like,
00:11:28.380 I think even an embryo
00:11:30.320 is a human life
00:11:31.220 and therefore I think
00:11:32.080 IVF is bad.
00:11:33.500 And now,
00:11:34.140 something that historically
00:11:35.120 would have increased
00:11:36.040 fertility rates,
00:11:37.300 a belief that life
00:11:38.220 begins at an embryo
00:11:39.420 is now dramatically
00:11:41.140 decreasing fertility rates
00:11:42.360 because it's so hard
00:11:43.380 to get pregnant naturally.
00:11:45.740 Yeah,
00:11:46.300 no,
00:11:46.440 I'm completely with you.
00:11:47.520 I definitely think
00:11:48.500 the fact that people
00:11:49.680 misperceive the past
00:11:51.240 is like a massive thing
00:11:52.540 that happens here as well.
00:11:53.760 I think people definitely
00:11:54.840 have this sense
00:11:55.600 that historically
00:11:56.420 women just were like
00:11:57.320 only focusing on childcare
00:11:58.700 as if like,
00:12:00.240 as if like household maintenance
00:12:01.720 wasn't itself
00:12:02.720 basically a full-time job
00:12:04.040 in a way that it just isn't now.
00:12:05.620 And the other thing is,
00:12:07.220 sure,
00:12:07.640 maybe,
00:12:08.080 maybe spending lots of time
00:12:09.540 with your mother
00:12:10.060 is like a really great thing
00:12:11.220 for you as a child.
00:12:12.120 But growing up
00:12:13.180 in a poorer household
00:12:14.080 is almost definitely
00:12:15.320 not better for you.
00:12:16.400 So it depends completely
00:12:17.440 on your own family's
00:12:18.380 financial circumstances
00:12:19.420 whether or not
00:12:20.020 being a stay-at-home mother
00:12:20.900 is even better for your kids.
00:12:22.640 Well,
00:12:22.820 and a note
00:12:23.320 because when we were
00:12:24.160 first planning our family
00:12:25.340 like way before
00:12:26.060 we ever had our first kid,
00:12:27.480 we actually wanted
00:12:28.380 to look really closely
00:12:29.200 like is it better
00:12:30.740 for a mother to stay at home
00:12:31.980 or to leave?
00:12:33.500 I mean,
00:12:33.800 you know,
00:12:34.000 we just wanted to know
00:12:35.220 like if there was
00:12:35.860 any conclusive research.
00:12:36.700 Yeah,
00:12:36.780 what the data says.
00:12:37.540 Yeah,
00:12:38.160 and basically
00:12:38.960 there isn't exactly
00:12:40.260 conclusive research
00:12:41.160 and you can find
00:12:41.800 some studies
00:12:42.480 that suggest
00:12:43.160 sort of one way
00:12:44.060 or the other
00:12:44.560 but ultimately
00:12:45.800 it seems like
00:12:47.100 it's slightly better
00:12:48.700 if anything
00:12:49.280 for the mother to work
00:12:50.280 especially if you have daughters
00:12:51.780 because the more important thing
00:12:53.280 is to demonstrate
00:12:54.380 to daughters
00:12:56.020 that you can go out
00:12:57.280 and work
00:12:57.740 and it's sort of empowering
00:12:58.720 to see that their mother works
00:12:59.920 and has,
00:13:00.500 you know,
00:13:00.720 a real life,
00:13:01.740 you know,
00:13:01.900 so beyond just being a mother
00:13:03.300 and I think that's
00:13:04.940 that's telling
00:13:05.700 and it makes a lot of sense.
00:13:06.540 I would think also
00:13:07.540 that my supposition
00:13:09.700 of why this isn't
00:13:10.620 just so obviously
00:13:11.480 in favor of mothers
00:13:12.260 staying at home
00:13:12.960 is I think especially
00:13:14.120 in the modern age
00:13:15.580 a lot of mothers
00:13:16.160 staying at home
00:13:16.780 get pretty depressed
00:13:17.840 and demotivated
00:13:18.980 so to have a mother
00:13:20.000 who's kind of
00:13:20.480 pumped out and bored
00:13:21.500 or neurotic
00:13:22.340 or living through
00:13:23.040 their children
00:13:23.520 because they're,
00:13:24.280 you know,
00:13:24.840 helicopter parenting
00:13:25.560 and they don't have
00:13:26.680 anything else in their lives
00:13:27.520 could be damaging
00:13:28.540 so even though
00:13:29.320 maybe a lot of kids
00:13:30.340 who have stay-at-home mothers
00:13:31.180 are getting a lot of support,
00:13:32.500 they're also getting
00:13:33.000 micromanaged a ton,
00:13:34.380 there's too much pressure
00:13:35.080 on them
00:13:35.520 so yeah,
00:13:36.420 I mean,
00:13:36.980 even that
00:13:37.560 is really interesting
00:13:38.940 and it surprised us.
00:13:40.580 Yeah,
00:13:40.760 I have an alternate hypothesis
00:13:43.140 as to what's going on here
00:13:44.400 and I should be clear
00:13:47.000 that this is,
00:13:47.760 I think,
00:13:48.100 a really sort of sad study
00:13:49.540 because I think
00:13:50.520 a lot of women,
00:13:51.240 they think they're making
00:13:51.960 this enormous sacrifice
00:13:53.120 and it's going to have
00:13:53.800 this enormous positive effect
00:13:55.220 for their kids
00:13:55.840 because to some women
00:13:56.820 this is a sacrifice
00:13:57.700 to them,
00:13:58.080 not to all women,
00:13:58.940 to some women
00:13:59.340 they prefer to be stay-at-home moms
00:14:00.360 but some women
00:14:01.160 are like,
00:14:01.500 I'm giving up a career
00:14:02.300 that I would have preferred
00:14:03.040 to have
00:14:03.600 and so this is the type
00:14:05.240 of study that you have
00:14:05.980 to lay very gingerly
00:14:07.680 that shows actually
00:14:08.360 you probably hurt your kids
00:14:09.440 by making that choice
00:14:10.200 and that's really sad,
00:14:12.380 you know,
00:14:12.700 but I think that the reason is
00:14:14.700 and it comes back
00:14:15.360 to what I was saying earlier
00:14:16.480 which is kids seem
00:14:18.300 to develop best
00:14:19.640 with minimum amounts
00:14:21.400 of outside interference
00:14:22.880 and unfortunately,
00:14:25.180 I also think that women
00:14:26.360 who are disproportionately
00:14:27.240 drawn to stay-at-home roles
00:14:29.220 especially if they have
00:14:30.620 small families
00:14:31.360 which a lot of these women
00:14:32.240 have right now
00:14:32.920 are the narcissistic type parents
00:14:35.060 who want to completely
00:14:37.040 laud over their children's life
00:14:39.240 and helicopter parent
00:14:40.220 and that's what we're seeing.
00:14:41.360 You know,
00:14:41.520 as a woman's other tasks,
00:14:43.480 you know,
00:14:43.680 whether it's laundry
00:14:44.440 or something like that
00:14:45.220 got automated,
00:14:46.420 they had more and more free time
00:14:48.380 as Simone was pointing to
00:14:49.600 and all of that free time
00:14:51.840 got directed on
00:14:53.360 hovering over children
00:14:55.360 and that seems to have
00:14:58.000 negative psychological effects.
00:15:00.220 In other places
00:15:00.920 where you can see this,
00:15:01.800 like if we're talking
00:15:02.220 about related studies
00:15:03.160 that seem to indicate
00:15:03.860 that this is probably true
00:15:04.620 there's this great study
00:15:05.480 on kids going to kindergarten
00:15:07.100 and trying to teach them
00:15:08.180 language earlier,
00:15:09.140 trying to teach them
00:15:09.820 reading earlier
00:15:10.880 and it found out
00:15:12.000 this state
00:15:12.900 for poor kids in the state,
00:15:14.300 I want to say it was like Ohio
00:15:15.100 or somewhere in the
00:15:15.900 central United States,
00:15:17.000 they made pre-kindergarten free
00:15:18.780 focused on teaching
00:15:20.100 early reading
00:15:21.140 and they thought
00:15:22.020 they had done this amazing thing
00:15:23.360 for like the poor
00:15:24.280 and then longitudinal studies
00:15:26.320 were done
00:15:26.660 and it turned out
00:15:27.460 it like put these kids behind
00:15:28.600 like a year and a half,
00:15:29.860 which is to say
00:15:30.700 that if you force a kid
00:15:32.040 to learn something
00:15:32.860 before they're ready
00:15:33.700 or you force a kid
00:15:34.560 to engage with ideas
00:15:35.600 before they're ready,
00:15:36.780 it actually has
00:15:37.460 pretty significant
00:15:38.460 deleterious effects.
00:15:40.620 We have actually
00:15:41.200 pretty similar data
00:15:42.120 in the UK.
00:15:43.120 So the UK has
00:15:44.440 for lots of reasons
00:15:45.280 got incredibly,
00:15:46.200 incredibly expensive
00:15:47.160 childcare,
00:15:47.900 but one of the reasons
00:15:48.660 is it's very tightly regulated
00:15:50.340 and the regulations
00:15:51.540 they involve things
00:15:52.320 like making sure
00:15:53.040 that a child
00:15:53.580 is like learning
00:15:54.400 to hold objects,
00:15:56.040 learning to speak
00:15:56.580 because obviously
00:15:56.980 this is early years
00:15:58.040 foundation stages
00:15:58.680 from baby up to school age
00:16:00.120 and the Department
00:16:01.180 for Education
00:16:01.740 recently monitored
00:16:02.640 the outcomes
00:16:03.160 of children
00:16:03.600 who were in nurseries
00:16:04.540 or child blinding,
00:16:05.440 so regulated sectors
00:16:06.820 or children
00:16:07.260 who were staying
00:16:07.740 at home with their parents
00:16:08.620 and they found
00:16:09.340 that actually
00:16:09.840 the early years
00:16:10.380 curriculum
00:16:10.720 is slightly negative
00:16:12.280 compared to just
00:16:13.620 staying at home
00:16:14.220 in I think
00:16:15.160 informal childcare.
00:16:16.760 Wow.
00:16:17.760 Obviously that could be
00:16:18.680 a selection effect,
00:16:19.380 but it's also terrifying
00:16:21.800 to me that in the UK
00:16:22.820 like you can't just
00:16:23.980 like pay a teenager
00:16:25.760 a good responsible one
00:16:27.000 like to just watch
00:16:27.740 your kids.
00:16:28.360 That's wild.
00:16:30.420 It was because
00:16:31.260 a couple kids
00:16:32.040 ended up killing
00:16:32.740 another kid
00:16:33.220 in some daycare.
00:16:34.140 No, no, no,
00:16:34.460 not daycare
00:16:34.940 but like probably
00:16:35.600 while they were
00:16:36.140 being babysat,
00:16:37.020 so.
00:16:37.740 Yeah.
00:16:38.020 I think it was part
00:16:38.740 of Tony Blair's
00:16:39.540 like education,
00:16:40.340 education,
00:16:40.840 education push
00:16:41.900 because it started
00:16:42.480 in 2006.
00:16:44.440 My theory for it
00:16:45.280 is that British elites
00:16:46.140 have three beliefs
00:16:47.140 that are very difficult
00:16:48.280 to square with each other
00:16:50.300 which is one of them
00:16:51.640 which is that
00:16:52.220 biodeterminism
00:16:53.100 is completely false
00:16:54.000 that a child's outcomes
00:16:55.020 are based wholly
00:16:56.160 on their environment.
00:16:58.280 Second,
00:16:59.180 the inequality is bad
00:17:00.500 so the fact that
00:17:01.120 children from different
00:17:02.020 households
00:17:02.860 have different outcomes
00:17:03.920 is genuinely negative
00:17:05.200 is like a genuinely
00:17:05.980 like really bad thing
00:17:06.740 to happen
00:17:07.160 and three,
00:17:08.780 the education
00:17:09.680 can basically fix
00:17:11.840 all of these ends
00:17:12.900 so that when you see
00:17:13.840 that children who go
00:17:14.520 to the same schools
00:17:15.460 end up having
00:17:16.180 different outcomes
00:17:16.940 based on their
00:17:17.460 parents' backgrounds
00:17:18.180 the best theory
00:17:19.200 that then comes to mind
00:17:20.100 is oh it's about
00:17:21.000 what's going on
00:17:21.580 slightly before school
00:17:22.520 which I think is why
00:17:23.600 so much energy
00:17:24.660 is poured into
00:17:25.240 the early years
00:17:25.740 foundation stage.
00:17:27.580 That makes a lot of sense.
00:17:29.440 That makes a lot of sense
00:17:30.280 and it also
00:17:31.140 obviously it doesn't work
00:17:34.040 and it seems to make
00:17:34.840 things worse
00:17:35.380 so yeah I think
00:17:37.160 that with a lot
00:17:38.100 of this stuff
00:17:38.640 in the modern era
00:17:39.340 the cool thing is
00:17:40.180 is the data
00:17:40.760 is out there
00:17:41.520 and people
00:17:41.940 like look
00:17:44.220 we don't trust
00:17:45.140 academia any more
00:17:46.080 than the next guy
00:17:46.820 right
00:17:47.140 but I feel like
00:17:48.300 I'm pretty good
00:17:48.720 at knowing
00:17:49.080 when academics
00:17:49.740 are lying in papers
00:17:50.800 like I'm good enough
00:17:52.100 at going through the data
00:17:52.880 so either you can
00:17:53.500 go through yourself
00:17:54.120 and look through it
00:17:54.740 and you can develop
00:17:55.460 patterns around this
00:17:56.280 or you can just
00:17:57.380 sort of trust us
00:17:58.340 as people who
00:17:58.760 genuinely want
00:17:59.460 what's best
00:17:59.820 for our own kids
00:18:00.540 and to take over
00:18:01.800 the world right
00:18:02.320 so
00:18:02.620 it's very easy
00:18:03.980 to track the
00:18:04.460 social conservatism thing
00:18:05.520 just go to the
00:18:06.440 OECD website
00:18:07.180 and then go to
00:18:07.700 the world value survey
00:18:08.640 it takes about like
00:18:09.460 I'm going to say
00:18:09.880 15 minutes
00:18:10.600 to just do a quick graph
00:18:11.940 well also like
00:18:13.120 you're telling people
00:18:13.760 how to do it as well
00:18:14.480 right
00:18:14.640 like go out there
00:18:15.640 do it for yourself
00:18:16.100 it's the same
00:18:16.580 with multiple
00:18:17.540 siblings things
00:18:18.220 this intuition
00:18:18.940 that if I spend
00:18:20.440 less time on a kid
00:18:21.460 that's going to
00:18:22.140 hurt the kid
00:18:22.720 again you can just
00:18:24.380 look like this
00:18:25.040 is a really
00:18:25.480 replicated finding
00:18:26.220 you are hurting
00:18:26.960 the kid by spending
00:18:27.880 additional time
00:18:28.660 on them
00:18:29.000 and this can be
00:18:30.300 a really interesting
00:18:31.160 thing for
00:18:32.060 a husband
00:18:33.220 who has a wife
00:18:34.280 who is overbearing
00:18:35.900 to work on
00:18:37.060 you know
00:18:37.500 to an extent
00:18:38.580 you're in charge
00:18:39.080 of protecting your kids
00:18:40.180 something we've noted
00:18:41.880 here about stay-at-home
00:18:42.700 moms
00:18:42.960 and this is another
00:18:43.740 thing like okay
00:18:44.300 do I want to have
00:18:44.760 a stay-at-home wife
00:18:45.440 you know
00:18:45.760 go out there
00:18:46.560 look at the data
00:18:47.440 look at the outcomes
00:18:48.580 but
00:18:49.560 I think
00:18:53.640 it's important
00:18:54.740 to remember
00:18:55.460 that like
00:18:56.000 if you have
00:18:57.000 two kids
00:18:57.740 and you are
00:18:58.260 a stay-at-home wife
00:18:59.260 you're gonna go crazy
00:19:00.900 because you're not
00:19:01.500 really doing anything
00:19:02.640 when you have
00:19:03.860 like eight kids
00:19:04.780 or nine kids
00:19:05.760 that's a completely
00:19:06.600 different thing
00:19:07.380 and we want to make sure
00:19:08.100 that we are not
00:19:08.900 conflating the two
00:19:10.020 but with that
00:19:11.160 being the case
00:19:11.960 this is also true
00:19:13.120 that we think
00:19:13.920 even a woman
00:19:14.440 who intends
00:19:14.980 to become
00:19:15.380 a stay-at-home mom
00:19:16.260 like I think
00:19:17.160 that's a privilege
00:19:17.960 that women
00:19:18.640 can indulge in
00:19:19.840 once they're
00:19:20.740 a kid four
00:19:21.620 right
00:19:22.120 but I think
00:19:22.880 before that
00:19:23.900 it's pretty
00:19:24.960 indolent
00:19:25.500 to be a stay-at-home mom
00:19:26.600 that's my
00:19:27.260 overly spicy take
00:19:28.640 what's
00:19:32.500 what's so
00:19:32.980 interesting though
00:19:33.680 about the
00:19:34.240 the first
00:19:34.700 sub stack piece
00:19:35.300 you have
00:19:35.700 because it's
00:19:36.080 so counterintuitive
00:19:36.980 is you know
00:19:37.760 when you think
00:19:38.160 about progressive nations
00:19:39.580 you think about
00:19:40.060 progressive culture
00:19:40.780 being just
00:19:42.560 so sterilizing
00:19:43.780 you know
00:19:44.080 it's it's
00:19:44.580 these are very
00:19:45.460 very low birth rates
00:19:46.380 that progressive
00:19:46.800 people have
00:19:47.480 so it's
00:19:48.540 part of me wonders
00:19:49.320 if it's I mean
00:19:50.320 also more representative
00:19:52.020 of a nation
00:19:52.740 that on the whole
00:19:53.960 is not super conservative
00:19:55.120 but is actually
00:19:56.340 more diverse
00:19:57.120 so you've got more
00:19:58.000 like super
00:19:59.060 high-blind fundamentalists
00:20:00.340 who are having
00:20:00.780 tons of kids
00:20:01.480 and then a bunch
00:20:01.980 of super progressives
00:20:03.400 who aren't
00:20:03.940 but I'm wondering
00:20:05.340 like what your thoughts
00:20:06.200 are on that
00:20:06.720 I'm like
00:20:07.100 why are
00:20:09.360 yeah
00:20:09.900 what's going on
00:20:10.880 I suspect
00:20:11.620 it probably
00:20:12.440 isn't
00:20:13.240 like Sweden
00:20:14.340 has like
00:20:15.040 a large handful
00:20:16.060 of like super
00:20:16.820 fundamentalists
00:20:17.540 I suspect
00:20:17.960 it really is
00:20:18.580 just about people
00:20:20.200 being more likely
00:20:21.240 to have two or three
00:20:22.060 kids versus one or two
00:20:23.320 like that's kind of
00:20:24.460 the range we're thinking
00:20:25.300 within in most
00:20:26.080 most rich countries
00:20:27.220 and so
00:20:28.180 I don't think
00:20:29.220 it probably is that
00:20:30.120 my guess
00:20:31.200 is also that people
00:20:31.960 have very bad
00:20:32.700 intuitions about
00:20:33.520 which countries
00:20:34.320 have low birth rates
00:20:35.700 so I think
00:20:36.560 most people
00:20:36.940 would be surprised
00:20:37.720 to know that India
00:20:38.360 is currently
00:20:38.800 a replacement rate
00:20:39.640 below replacement rate
00:20:42.160 yeah
00:20:42.820 as of this year
00:20:43.720 yeah
00:20:43.940 and I think
00:20:45.240 it's going to fall
00:20:45.740 pretty quickly
00:20:46.240 from where it is now
00:20:47.560 which is a shame
00:20:48.560 yeah
00:20:49.560 yeah I think people
00:20:51.940 I guess they
00:20:52.800 there's a lot of
00:20:53.780 conflation of population
00:20:54.780 size with birth rate
00:20:55.860 and it's going to take us
00:20:56.600 a really long time
00:20:57.560 to get around that
00:20:58.240 yeah I think so
00:20:59.620 I guess also
00:21:00.700 it is definitely true
00:21:02.120 that more conservative
00:21:03.360 people at the very least
00:21:04.380 in the anglosphere
00:21:05.280 do have higher birth rates
00:21:07.820 so I guess
00:21:08.800 it like it kind of
00:21:09.820 that's another reason
00:21:10.660 why it makes intuitive sense
00:21:11.900 and I don't actually
00:21:12.780 have a great way
00:21:13.440 of squaring that
00:21:14.260 hmm
00:21:15.040 so I do
00:21:16.500 I think that there is
00:21:17.460 a big difference
00:21:18.240 between being a conservative
00:21:19.660 individual
00:21:20.300 from a minority
00:21:21.260 conservative group
00:21:22.480 and being in a
00:21:24.020 conservative
00:21:24.600 normative environment
00:21:26.100 right
00:21:26.560 and I think that
00:21:27.280 the conservative
00:21:27.920 normative environment
00:21:29.140 actually hurts
00:21:30.360 conservative individuals
00:21:31.860 within the country
00:21:32.580 in terms of their
00:21:33.220 fertility rate
00:21:33.900 and this is something
00:21:35.280 that a lot of conservatives
00:21:36.100 it might be heartening
00:21:37.440 it might be disheartening
00:21:38.320 what it means
00:21:39.000 is if you win
00:21:40.120 if you win the culture wars
00:21:42.400 the person who suffers
00:21:43.900 the most from your winning
00:21:45.420 is your cultural group
00:21:48.000 your people
00:21:48.820 it is the feeling
00:21:50.620 like a discriminated
00:21:51.780 minority group
00:21:52.580 which is likely
00:21:53.600 helping your fertility rate
00:21:54.900 and protecting
00:21:55.880 your culture
00:21:57.620 intergenerationally
00:21:58.780 when your culture
00:21:59.720 feels like it is
00:22:00.920 in control of the state
00:22:02.260 it will degrade
00:22:03.500 and become soft
00:22:04.560 much faster
00:22:05.380 because you will feel
00:22:06.760 like you have less
00:22:07.620 to protect yourself from
00:22:08.840 and you will
00:22:09.600 you know
00:22:10.120 I think
00:22:11.400 let go of a lot
00:22:12.600 of the cultural
00:22:13.260 hygiene related stuff
00:22:14.820 I guess I'd call it
00:22:15.540 like the
00:22:15.860 in other words
00:22:16.500 you're describing
00:22:17.580 sort of like a push
00:22:18.380 versus pull culture
00:22:19.520 right
00:22:19.880 like if you're
00:22:20.400 in the minority culture
00:22:21.340 that you know
00:22:23.200 encourages high birth rates
00:22:24.360 it's kind of like
00:22:25.440 carrot rather than
00:22:26.220 a stick to have kids
00:22:27.100 because you know
00:22:27.620 you can sort of
00:22:28.260 stand out
00:22:29.240 and be cool
00:22:29.780 and be special
00:22:30.440 and really help
00:22:31.620 yeah
00:22:31.980 think about it this way
00:22:33.440 okay suppose you're
00:22:34.020 a tradcath right
00:22:34.740 if you're a tradcath
00:22:36.200 in a semi-hostile
00:22:37.600 governance system
00:22:39.020 like the United States
00:22:40.060 right
00:22:40.440 your perception
00:22:41.920 of being a tradcath
00:22:43.620 is going to be
00:22:44.080 that's your unique
00:22:44.800 cultural identity
00:22:45.560 and every kid you have
00:22:46.660 actually matters a lot
00:22:47.720 because it's
00:22:48.540 it's your community
00:22:49.480 that you're adding
00:22:50.080 that kid to
00:22:50.700 it's your church
00:22:52.280 it's your you know
00:22:53.200 however
00:22:54.020 if you are a tradcath
00:22:55.920 and your country
00:22:56.660 has catholic leadership
00:22:58.100 like it is
00:22:58.580 an officially
00:22:59.400 sanctioned catholic state
00:23:01.140 every kid you had
00:23:02.700 feels a lot less important
00:23:04.180 maintaining the rules
00:23:05.580 of your faith
00:23:06.200 feel a lot less important
00:23:07.420 because they're also
00:23:08.160 the rules of the state
00:23:09.240 this is one of the things
00:23:10.700 that we often point out
00:23:11.980 that it is really
00:23:12.920 silly
00:23:13.800 and kind of stupid
00:23:14.680 as a conservative
00:23:15.480 to fight for things
00:23:16.860 like banning pornography
00:23:18.380 even if your group
00:23:20.480 is anti-pornography
00:23:21.760 because through
00:23:23.140 banning pornography
00:23:24.080 the people who you're
00:23:25.120 helping the most
00:23:25.860 are your enemies
00:23:26.500 if you believe
00:23:27.040 that no pornography
00:23:27.660 is useful
00:23:28.160 you know you're
00:23:28.640 helping the secular
00:23:29.800 sphere and cultural groups
00:23:31.420 that were engaged
00:23:32.800 in being hurt
00:23:33.500 by pornography
00:23:34.200 but you're also
00:23:35.600 making the rules
00:23:37.280 that your culture
00:23:38.400 exercises
00:23:39.140 to lower pornography
00:23:40.380 consumption
00:23:41.720 less relevant
00:23:43.360 to every individual's
00:23:44.260 daily lives
00:23:44.880 and I think
00:23:45.360 individuals stick
00:23:46.260 with cultures better
00:23:47.320 the more they actually
00:23:49.140 have to choose
00:23:50.040 to suffer
00:23:50.680 to endure the rules
00:23:52.340 of that culture
00:23:53.040 I think that probably
00:23:56.660 makes sense
00:23:57.300 I would have like
00:23:58.300 one extra guess though
00:23:59.540 that actually
00:24:00.680 that we will see
00:24:02.080 these like
00:24:02.780 conservative right groups
00:24:04.060 within like say America
00:24:05.160 if they do come to dominate
00:24:06.680 that
00:24:07.460 they will be like
00:24:09.200 much more
00:24:10.220 like they are now
00:24:11.580 than they will be like
00:24:12.380 the sort of like
00:24:12.860 general American population
00:24:14.040 like I know that like
00:24:15.100 for example
00:24:15.800 like the Amish
00:24:16.440 has like a slightly
00:24:17.120 higher bleed rate
00:24:17.820 than it used to
00:24:18.460 and the Mormons
00:24:18.940 have a slightly higher
00:24:19.580 bleed rate than they used to
00:24:20.520 but I suspect
00:24:21.260 that the people
00:24:21.740 that will keep reproducing
00:24:22.780 at a high level
00:24:23.680 will be more
00:24:24.720 more like
00:24:25.480 like traditional Mormons
00:24:26.760 absolutely
00:24:27.760 especially because
00:24:29.300 you know the ones
00:24:29.860 who detract
00:24:30.600 are the ones
00:24:31.160 who don't have kids
00:24:31.940 and the ones
00:24:32.480 who do have kids
00:24:33.280 are the ones
00:24:33.560 who stay
00:24:33.940 I need to update
00:24:34.700 your intuition
00:24:35.220 the Amish actually
00:24:35.800 have a lower bleed rate
00:24:36.780 than they used to
00:24:37.400 the Mormons
00:24:38.840 have a higher bleed rate
00:24:39.840 than they used to
00:24:40.340 so Mormonism
00:24:41.840 right now
00:24:42.220 is basically
00:24:42.860 falling apart
00:24:43.600 so they're not
00:24:44.380 really useful
00:24:44.940 to learn anything
00:24:45.940 but like
00:24:46.440 don't do this lessons
00:24:47.700 Amish on the other hand
00:24:49.480 they have
00:24:50.400 intergenerationally
00:24:51.320 gotten to
00:24:51.680 like incredibly
00:24:52.760 low bleed rates
00:24:53.520 like 3%
00:24:55.100 intergenerationally
00:24:56.120 and that's just
00:24:57.100 to be
00:24:57.300 so I thought
00:24:59.200 as the Amish
00:25:00.300 basically
00:25:00.800 as they
00:25:01.260 as they had to
00:25:02.720 move off
00:25:03.320 like being like
00:25:04.000 purely like
00:25:04.580 agricultural
00:25:05.140 you get like
00:25:05.760 a small set of Amish
00:25:06.600 that have to interact
00:25:07.420 more and more
00:25:07.940 with the English
00:25:08.760 as they call it
00:25:09.440 and that group
00:25:10.440 has a lower birth rate
00:25:11.420 that group
00:25:11.800 oh yeah it does
00:25:12.760 yeah yeah yeah
00:25:13.380 so he's referring
00:25:14.420 more to strict Amish
00:25:16.220 and not so much
00:25:17.260 like the Mennonites
00:25:17.960 who have cell phones
00:25:18.720 Schwartz and Troopers
00:25:19.720 yeah yeah
00:25:20.640 they're called
00:25:21.540 anyway
00:25:21.960 was there anything else
00:25:25.080 you wanted to say
00:25:25.520 on this topic
00:25:25.900 I don't think so
00:25:26.980 I liked it
00:25:28.660 well I mean
00:25:29.020 I think this is just
00:25:29.720 really important
00:25:30.620 for people to know
00:25:31.280 because it is such
00:25:32.120 a non-intuitive thing
00:25:34.280 it is so important
00:25:35.460 from a pro-natalist
00:25:36.380 advocacy perspective
00:25:37.420 because it is
00:25:39.020 I think
00:25:39.620 in the same way
00:25:40.820 that progressives
00:25:41.520 the first thing
00:25:42.100 they want to say
00:25:42.900 is let in more immigrants
00:25:44.260 and you're like
00:25:44.620 well that actually
00:25:45.120 doesn't help
00:25:45.500 and then they go
00:25:45.940 well make
00:25:46.700 give people money
00:25:48.040 and give free child care
00:25:49.420 and you're like
00:25:49.720 well that doesn't work
00:25:50.560 and they're like
00:25:51.300 well all of the things
00:25:52.700 that supported the shit
00:25:53.540 I already wanted to do
00:25:54.560 don't work
00:25:55.260 and with conservatives
00:25:56.300 you have the similar instinct
00:25:57.280 which is
00:25:57.860 well go back to the way
00:25:58.780 things used to be
00:25:59.740 or at least the way
00:26:01.780 that they perceive
00:26:02.500 the way things used to be
00:26:03.620 and you're like
00:26:04.160 you know
00:26:04.600 you have to say
00:26:05.020 unfortunately
00:26:05.780 no
00:26:06.800 pro-natalism
00:26:07.860 as an agenda
00:26:08.580 doesn't allow you
00:26:09.460 to just push
00:26:10.100 whatever it is
00:26:10.760 that you were planning
00:26:11.380 to do beforehand
00:26:12.180 you actually need
00:26:13.000 to look at the data
00:26:13.840 and be very intentional
00:26:15.280 if you want to be
00:26:16.440 one of the groups
00:26:16.940 that survives
00:26:17.520 yeah
00:26:18.260 and we are so excited
00:26:19.740 to have you on
00:26:20.480 and I hope people
00:26:21.620 check out the substack
00:26:22.580 and I expect
00:26:23.640 many interesting things
00:26:24.720 from her in the future