Why You Can't Take the Middle Ground in Politics Anymore
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Summary
In this episode, we talk about political polarization and why it's a problem, why it exists, and what we can do about it. We also talk about the problem of political polarization in general, and how we can fix it.
Transcript
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scott alexander right who writes slate star codex um and him just talking like as truly neutral as
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possible it's important to understand that in a society where the academic system and most media
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centers are controlled by one faction if you talk neutrally you are a threat to them because you
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weigh things towards the the faction that's not in power which is the conservative faction
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and so he very famously just really tries to give the truth in like the most non-extremist non-hyperbolic
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way possible so you know he got outed by the new york times and they did this really mean piece on
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him and to me that even somebody as honestly i think pretty progressive in terms of his sensibilities
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as him is now pretty solidly grouped with conservatives in terms of the online intellectual
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movement would you like to know more hello you beautiful human being simone you are the most
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beautiful human being who's ever lived and i love you to death now today we are going to talk about
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political polarization because this is an issue that has bedeviled us where we keep having people
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come to us and they're like i'm going to start a non-partisan version of your foundation like the
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pronatalist foundation because right pretty openly aligned conservatives and we're like that's not
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gonna go well for you or they'll even try to start a full-on progressive one and i'm like that might go
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better than an unaligned one but the question is is why so one i mean i think the easy answer for a lot
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of people is truth has become a team sport in our society where people care less you know when they
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hear a piece of like they can hear a piece of like research data right which is just like
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furthering their understanding of reality and they might become upset because it makes their
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side less likely to win yeah i'm fuzzy on this but i think even some psychology studies have
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demonstrated that people when presented with evidence that runs against their political beliefs
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and their political party's belief will become even more trenched in their belief they won't be
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convinced or change their mind by that so it does imply that truth is indeed a team sport
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and this is really damaging implications on reality i mean like for example germany because of the
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environmentalists shut down all its nuclear power plants not good what were you thinking like this is
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a you know when we complain about like aesthetic conservatism versus real conservatism this is the
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perfect example of aesthetic environmentalism versus real environmentalism nuclear power bad dirty big
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nuclear silos and deformed people living near them you know it's like okay that's like a weird like
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aesthetic of environmentalism from the 1980s but like we should know better now especially if you don't
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have any other way than to generate that power than russian oil which it turned out you didn't have any
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backup plan for it was profoundly stupid and so i should say we don't just have this problem on the
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right of like this like i'm gonna be you know aesthetically and i'm i'll link the video here or you can
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check it out like aesthetic conservatism versus real conservative because we do have this problem
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on the right but the left has it as well where they just stop caring about reality and it's just
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about whether or not their team is winning so i'd say that there's sort of a few reasons why this
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doesn't work but i think one of the most important was when the simone went over with me and i want to
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have early in our video here you know because i watched the watch time on these and i'm like well
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let's at least get the good ideas to people faster right which was do you want to go into it simone
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i don't remember it what what can you remind me and i'll explain your idea was that if you try to
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hold the middle ground the progressives will just keep pushing you further and further and further to
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extreme positions oh okay okay i think i remember the argument i made and i think you can make this
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more nuanced thing but i remember what i'd said to you at least yeah so progressives essentially don't
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allow individuals to hold the middle ground ideologically well specifically i think what
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happens is they more center people even if they are progressive get increasingly pushed progressive
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because if they attempt to apologize or correct their behavior if their behavior is pointed out as
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being problematic they will they will be further punished and then further forced to go in a very very
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extreme position so yeah you basically don't get rewarded for deviating even slightly from the
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most extreme positions and in many circles at least and then if you apologize if you if you engage in any
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way in a way that that signals no i really still do want to be part of this community you are forced
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to become more extreme does that make sense yeah it makes perfect sense so so you can think about it this
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way the progressive community it basically will say okay you want to be a part of multiple
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communities you want to be a part of the conservative world you want to be a part of the progressive
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world that's what you're really saying like i want to be broadly accepted within both these
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communities that's what a person is saying when they're politically neutral you can't just say oh
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i'm not engaging with either right um and then the progressive community comes to you and they'll be
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like well you need to change what you did here you need to change what you did here you need to
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apologize for this the moment you do that you have lost because then they they make their demands more
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extreme and you get no reward for conceding but if you do not concede if you do not change your
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behavior based on what they're saying then you are said to be a far-right outsider or a racist or a
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nazi or eugenicist you know all the sorts of accusations we have appointed at us but they get
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pointed at literally anyone who disagrees with progressives if you just disagree with progressives
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and it's irrelevant what the facts are i mean one of my favorite things was the guy was like look
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i'm obviously not a racist i have a black wife and i have black children and they were like well
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that's extra sign of your racism because you disagree with us and you're around black people
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so you must be victimizing them and it's like come on guys like get it together that's all you're
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showing there is that you're just using the word of the bludgeon for your political enemies and people
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who want to be seen within your group and they know if they get this label of racist or this label of
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you know nazi or fascist or whatever that they're not going to be able to engage with your community
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and so you use that you you you spread this you know as we've said hilariously progressives who call
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us eugenicists they're like yes you eugenicists you're dirtying the gene pool and i want to use
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the government to limit your reproductive rights in terms of the technology that you're engaging with
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so that you don't dirty the gene pool with all of this weird stuff you're doing and i'm like
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that is literally exactly eugenics and yet you use the title of eugenics and the accusation of
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eugenics on us to try to force us to engage with your way but this is one reason but it's not the
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only reason why you really can't take the middle ground anymore another reason is that you just will
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have no one to support you so if we tried to take the middle ground we could be othered by progressives
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while not having a conservative line of support which is really really really damaging another
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thing i'd lay and it's a little sad thing because i've so taken control of the narratives that even
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some conservative influencers believe this but and we have a whole video on this that's called like
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the greatest lie in history which is that the progressive base is actually as racist or more
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racist than the conservative base um and i don't mean like in like vague wishy-washy like a formative
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action is racist i mean until obama was erect elected president fewer democrats in the u.s said
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they would vote for a black president than conservatives like literally it's still the party of the clan they
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just have hidden that because they control the media and and then they use like a few clowns in like
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the public to try to connect racists with conservatives when the the democratic party is and always has been
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the party of the clan they just do things a little differently now and and you can see this in the
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actual data so so check that video but it is it is really sad so can you tell reasons why you that things
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have to be so politically entrenched these days
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hmm well i can go over one if you want me to go further um which is to say that if you look at
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something like the educational system like we came at this and and this is actually a problem that teach
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for america has because you know we have a lot of friends and like high up and teach for america
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you cannot make meaningful reforms in the educational system and sideways progressives at all so teach
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for america basically attempted to do this and a lot of people don't know but they're basically about
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to die now because they can't get any new recruits they became known despite being the one former
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number one employer for ivy league graduates and two an incredibly efficacious organization the work
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they did really made a difference but it made things harder for like long-term union paying teachers
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because they had to change things to adopt to these new strategies and they had to compete with
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young educated people who were like actually what you're doing is causing long-term damage and
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they're like i don't want to change what i'm doing i'm going to the union about this and because the
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union then turned against teach for america or the unions turned against teach for america now became
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not cool like it becomes known as not cool among progressive circles to work for them and i'm like
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you know you could just brand yourself as a conservative organization and you'd be have a whole fresh
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recruit of people you could take from and they would actually be interested in your mission
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because it's actually helping kids and this is something where if you do any sort of like
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charter school advocacy voucher program advocacy anyone who looks at the the statistics on this would
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obviously see that it helps students like it's just like reality is uh disintermediating the
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education system is good for students but it hurts teachers unions and teachers unions are an incredibly
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important voting block for democrats like they would not if they lost if a if a democratic candidate lost
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the teachers unions they could not win an election just period like any election and because the
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progressive movement is so tied with the democratic u.s democratic politics they have to then shape
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reality and truth around the the interest of those political interests i.e even if it's hurting
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children even if it's disproportionately hurting poor children well the truth needs to be that charter
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schools are bad that even if pretending this is hurting children because or or at least that it's still
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open to debate at least that scientists go both ways on the issues and economics researchers go both ways
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they do not they're just like strictly a good thing if you actually look at the data not like what people
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are publishing because obviously people you know like keep their jobs and stuff like that but i mean
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like just look at the data it's just like so overwhelmingly obvious and and this is one of
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those things where i was like and it's an interesting thing for a lot of people who want to like
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help with education especially if they want to help with education in lower income communities
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because a lot of people they're like yeah this could really help these people and they realize the minute
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they actually try to change anything they get branded as like far right activists or far right
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extremists and it's always uh it's it's somewhat humorous to me because it's like either you can
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take that branding and you can continue and continue to fix things or you can bend over backwards to try
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to you know accommodate them and this is why stuff was like you know i think it was mark zuckerberg
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right he donated a hundred million dollars to the newark school system and over half of the money went to
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a bribe to the teachers unions to allow them to pay teachers more with the pittance that was left
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for good performance that was the thing that teachers unions didn't want to happen for teachers
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to be paid more for good performance i mean i say a bribe of course it it went to like unpaid
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something somethings basically it went just as a cash payout to members of the union in the local
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area to allow them to make these other changes and this is what happens when in an issue like
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education you're like okay i'm going to try to go at this from a politically neutral or even
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progressively favorable position and it is created that way it is structured that way to prevent
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things from ever getting better because if things got better they would have to change
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and unions axiomatically hate change right like they are about maintaining the existing power hierarchy
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within a field well but i mean to that to your point there that's not just unions that's pretty much
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i think we've gotten to a point where many political and governmental organizations have
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become extremely strong and entrenched and organizationally ossified but also very powerful
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and they've gotten to the point where they've essentially grown tumorous cancers that we talk
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about in the pragmatist guide to governance that are more interested in self-perpetuation than in
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doing their job so the focus then becomes really protecting and entrenching rather than working
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and so it would make sense that there's a lot of you know team sports and alliance creating and
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and sort of power mongering and protecting right because you know the the imperative of many many
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organizations both political and governmental are to just survive like they're not as we learned from
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doing work in the political space they're not effective they're not actually really doing
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their job they're putting most of their money and time and effort and skill into raising money and
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telling a certain story that will lead to more donations or more support or larger budgets but then
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i also think that the larger phenomenon with the way that internet communities work contributes this
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to this as well and that you know in a dominance hierarchy as you say in the pragmatist guide to
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governance the way that you show your dominance in many cases is through your extremism
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vis-a-vis the special interest of whatever group there is so i think because so much of political
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action has become really dislodged from like oh helping a community helping policy you know changing
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this i think the economy would work a little bit more efficiently this way it's really become what team
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are you on that therefore the most easy way to show your status in these communities isn't by writing
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policy or by working with a politician or doing local issues like making progress in local issues
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but rather by showing how extreme you are in your views because that makes you even more democratic or
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even more republican such a good point and i really want to you know explore this point that you're making
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more here because i think it's very important for our viewers you know that the democratic party does
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self-eat itself due to this weird dominance fight and you keep seeing this in local elections like
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i've heard from people in local elections yeah we're outrating the republicans but due to these
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internal dominant struggles and these hierarchy fights we have within our local offices over stuff
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like are we hiring you know the right makeup of ethnic groups are we hiring the right makeup of
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disabilities are we because that's how you show your dominance wording yeah these are all dominance
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fights but you know they're they're they're absolutely so infesting the progressive side that they are
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preventing efficacious work whereas we do have these problems on the conservative side as well
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absolutely we have these problems but i believe that we can overcome them i believe that the dominant
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faction of the conservative group can prevent these sort of virtue spirals from happening and we do this
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through shaming which you constantly see on this channel individuals who engage with this type
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of conservatism this is not us like being anti-conservative when we're like you know you flexing
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your aesthetic conservatism is a problem and will lead to virtue spirals and will lead to problems
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it is actually a problem it actually causes problems it is stupid and in a waste of time
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and don't do it like just don't do it but the other thing that you mentioned there and you were citing
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something that was actually really concrete that we have information on that your average person
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would have information on so we ran this election thing that had us we were being funded by
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conservatives uh but it it had us uh aligned with progressives a few times and so we got internal
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access to some of their data like these big democratic get out to vote organizations and we learned that
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they performed literally six thousand percent worse than us on a per dollar spent level and the core
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innovation we had was just a b testing well and a few other really sophisticated things we were doing
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but the point being is that it appeared that they hadn't like they would send these emails which you
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might have seen was political emails was like borders on the email and then like internal text
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that was like a page and a half of like text was like images and stuff and i'm like this looks like
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a spam email from the 90s like you guys know the reason why all the companies stopped doing this is
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because it doesn't work and they were like yeah but we don't want to risk experimenting with things if you
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look at the emails that our org was sending they never went above three sentences usually one to
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two sentences simple action items meant to emotionally engage people that's our consulting thing if you
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want to like get all the information that other people pay a lot of money for when we're talking
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about these sorts of political things but yeah that's literally how we did it and it to me was not
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shocking to me i was thinking about like what gets me to act on an email like it has to
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basically piss me off like if it's a spam email it needs to be short like people only read one
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to two sentences they don't read anything long-form they don't read anything that has these fancy
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images on it so take all that out and emotionally engage them as quickly as you can and that will
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get them to act in the way that you you want them to act but that they that they hadn't even considered
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this because and what we realized if their emails were not about doing what people when they said
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were taking donations to do x or y they weren't about doing x or y they were about raising more
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money they were about doing what seemed like plausibly an okay thing to be doing with the money so that
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they could raise more money so that they could pay more salaries and this is a you know the word you
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use is is wicked problem someone because it's a very difficult problem to fight at the level of a
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non-profit if you're not giving to a non-profit that's not like you know it's studiously ethically run like
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ours which is well that's the thing is it's really hard to find a non-profit like that because
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non-profits like that do their job and either fix the problem or disassemble as soon as their
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specific job is done and or fail to raise money because they were so busy doing their job and then
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basically the only non-profits that persistently exist over time are extremely good at making money
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at raising money and making the problem seem bigger which frankly is a lot easier when the problem
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doesn't go away so i i just i think it's it's going to be really hard for people to find any
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long-lasting organization that is not ossified to at least some extent by this level of corruption
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and i mean i i used to use organizations like charity navigator to try to figure out like the
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percentage of spending that was program spending but even those numbers are really fudged so i think now
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like if i were to donate i mean like the way we donate money now is actually how i would always
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donate money which is like put money toward a very specific discrete project with a start and an end
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and metrics that enable me to see if it did its job period like nothing you know see no organization that
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is going to have staff members that is going to have people who you know depend on it for a salary
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because those people are going to be incentivized to keep the organization alive much more than
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they're going to be incentivized to solve the problem i mean our non-profit spending goes to
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our own projects largely speaking and it goes to our own projects where we also have the secondary
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non-profit goal of you should never be donating to anything that can't become self-sustaining
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and by that what i mean they can't become because when something provides something of value to
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other people in our society they pay for it like that's what that's what efficiency gains are
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right and so if you have actually created something that's providing value eventually
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people will pay for that value and if they're not paying for that value well then you're not
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creating value you're not actually helping people there is always a way to profit when you're making
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people's lives better and so we look for ways that we can put you know some money down now to create
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something that then spins up itself and improves the quality of a lot of people's lives but this is
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very different than the way traditional non-profit organizations work yeah but it's really sad i i'd
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say another thing is you know if you one thing that i've been very surprised about is you know coming
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from a world where you're in the progressive community is how narrow they are in the ideas
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that they accept and will allow to be voiced yet how diverse the ideas in the conservative community
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are almost to a fault today which is very interesting to me you know it's it's a community
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where you can have a conservative muslim and a conservative jew in in the same uh organization
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who have almost literally nothing similar about their world perspectives and and then people like us who
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are you know conservative atheists i guess you could call or secular christians which which have pretty
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unique views yet we've been pretty accepted by most of the the voices in the movement except for some
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where we could like disrupt their power hierarchy like who was the guy who called us like nerds that
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no one should listen to oh ben shapiro ben shapiro yeah but other than that you know it's it's been
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pretty interesting i also think that if you want to look at an example of why you can't take the middle
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ground a great example that happened pretty publicly which was the guy we were just meeting was last week was
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scott alexander right who writes slate star codex um and him just talking like as truly neutral as
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possible it's important to understand that in a society where the academic system and most media
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centers are controlled by one faction if you talk neutrally you are a threat to them because you weigh
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things towards the the faction that's not in power which is the conservative faction and so he very famously just
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really tries to give the truth in like the most non-extremist non-hyperbolic way possible
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he always anything we care about he's always like well you may be worrying a bit more everything's
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always less and as we point out you know you're talking about prediction markets because we're at
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this prediction market event we're like look if you always bet that any extremely alarmist prediction
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is wrong generally you are going to make money or you are going to make prediction market points on
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average however you are also going to do less meaningful things because you are going to miss
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the things that actually turn out to be right in terms of outrageous predictions so you know he got
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outed by the new york times and they did this really mean piece on him and it sort of forced him in many
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ways to to become it it helped his his public rise a lot because to me that even somebody as honestly i
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think pretty progressive in terms of his sensibilities as him is now pretty solidly
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grouped with conservatives in terms of the online intellectual movement
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yeah but again i think that that's actually a really great example of what it's like when you are
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punished you know for for being insufficiently progressive that you know there's like nothing
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you can do it's it's really crazy and also the accusations that that were made about him were so
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tentative that it's it's almost a joke like they they were really accusing him of things that weren't
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even true but it was enough to endanger his professional practice to make him extremely
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uncomfortable of course and to sort of like really disrupt his life so it is but you know what he didn't
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apologize and i think he did the right thing and it helped him yeah well i mean there was nothing to
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apologize for like i'm not i'm not backing down from these positions you guys are being unrealistic
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and unreasonable and you're being little turds basically and it ended up helping him now of
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course he's not hyperbolic like us like our whole public image is based on being kind of bombastic and
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combative a little bit i mean not in like a mean way i mean unless you're talking about yet then it's
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in a mean way but other than that um not in a mean way and his is not his is not he is genuinely
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like very middle line and it was shocking to me and this is actually interesting to me and is how i know
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the progressives are going to eventually lose is in this power consolidation play they are kicking
00:24:20.540
out many allies through potential allies through very tentative in a way that makes it increasingly
00:24:28.140
obvious to the general public that one these groups control the positions of power in our society
00:24:33.340
two they are willing to lie to them uh pretty aggressively and three they do not have their
00:24:38.220
best interest at heart and i think at this point there's no way to win also i think it's it's just
00:24:43.740
yeah there's no way to win and if you're not in the cult you know i i think it's pretty obvious that
00:24:47.900
it is a cult and that it's a cult that doesn't have your best interest at heart anymore and that the
00:24:52.380
only way to fight them is is to unfortunately align yourself i won't say unfortunately fortunately
00:24:58.380
because they have so many beliefs that are aligned with us you know since trump was elected we're
00:25:02.300
really like oh now we sort of agree with almost everything the conservative party stands for
00:25:07.020
which is pretty interesting because before him you know before this major political realignment now we
00:25:11.820
had a lot of pretty major disagreements with the way the conservative party was structured
00:25:15.500
and it's a lot less of a a smelling pill to to target and sort of the trump and post trump especially
00:25:21.020
the post trump era although i do think trump will probably be our next president so it's not post trump
00:25:26.380
yet right we're in for an interesting future well unless they have this is going to change because i
00:25:33.820
don't see how in the age of the internet it can change but i i think it would be really great if it did
00:25:39.420
well here's how i think it's one of those things where it's it's slow in the background until it's
00:25:46.380
all at once i think anyone who is engaged with like what is actually true about reality when they
00:25:53.260
investigate the data it's really obvious that many positions that you would come to are not positions
00:25:59.980
that progressives allowed they will kick you out of your community their community for having which
00:26:04.540
means that anyone who's interested in like actually what's true about reality not what helps me
00:26:09.260
signal my status to other people that they will decide was a conservative party i mean this is
00:26:15.580
what the intellectual dark web really is when people talk about this right and and because of
00:26:20.140
that that means we get the best talent when i talk with smart young people they're like yeah i
00:26:26.220
mean i want to stay under the radar but secretly i identify as this isn't this conservatively
00:26:30.940
speaking oh man the number of times we hear that yeah and and it's because they have made
00:26:37.340
themselves the big boogeyman the big oppressor the big you know we do this this and this and the
00:26:43.820
accusations they are leveling at conservatives with little research like the racism episode that the
00:26:48.700
progressive base is actually as racist or more racist in the conservative based in like the most
00:26:53.500
traditional sense the accusations like oh these conservatives are racist they're just obviously not true from the
00:26:58.620
data and and and then they use these words to be like why would you associate with these racist
00:27:04.060
conservatives and when you look at the data and you don't see this as being true you're like wait
00:27:09.180
have i been lied to and nothing galvanizes people against you like lying to them like convincing them
00:27:15.020
to malign or hate somebody based on something that turns out to be entirely fictional and that is
00:27:22.620
exactly the stance and tactics that the progressive party is using so aggressively right now and then on
00:27:28.140
top of all of this when you're in this status signal you know fight you know within the progressive
00:27:32.700
party to be accepted by this community you know desperately simping to be accepted by this
00:27:37.420
completely narcissistic unrealistic demigod that you won't have kids because that's not what you're
00:27:43.980
focused on right and it's sad but it's it's it's sad that so many people have been caught up by it
00:27:49.340
that it has so many positions of power in our society but it's just so astoundingly inefficient now
00:27:53.740
of course we have the fear that they then use ai or they use government control in a way similar to
00:27:59.340
like what china is doing that they they they shut down people's ways to make income like they did
00:28:04.940
with the trucker protest like anyone who is even like reasonable on the trucker protest they would
00:28:09.740
like literally shut down their bank accounts in canada like we have seen how far they have had to go to
00:28:16.060
keep control when they are obviously not on the average citizen side when they are not on the working
00:28:21.260
classes side anymore when they are the party of racism now and yet they need to hide all of this when they
00:28:27.340
they have organizations like antifa that literally act like like nazi fascist goons like you look at
00:28:33.820
what the the people were doing in the lead up to the uh election of hitler and you look at like these
00:28:39.580
goons who would go out and rough up people and like agitate was in protest and they they like dress they
00:28:45.020
act they talk like antifa antifa's goals are like literally actually fascism and yet they they call
00:28:50.780
themselves anti-fascist and you see pretty quickly oh these guys are actually like transparently evil and
00:28:55.500
actually transparently support fascism and what they want from a government the government that
00:28:59.500
fascistly enforces their values on anyone who thinks differently than them i mean i think that
00:29:04.220
this is all pretty transparent to people and that they're going to lose the control they have now
00:29:09.260
yeah we'll see i think that it can get a lot worse first personally
00:29:15.180
but we'll we'll we'll fight we're here we will win we've got plans in action across many domains and
00:29:24.940
we know other people who do too and as we always say if this podcast had a motto it would be thank
00:29:32.380
god the forces arrayed against us are not as competent as they are malevolent if we lived in
00:29:38.300
that timeline where they were competent as well oh i wouldn't want to be there but they are
00:29:44.540
wildly incompetent and when our money goes 6 000 fold further per dollar spent to things like
00:29:51.500
our foundation versus theirs they just can't compete they're not nimble enough because they don't get
00:29:57.580
people who relate to truth they get to people who relate to status seeking yeah so it goes well i love
00:30:07.340
you and i love you know not being on the oppressive not allowed to talk about certain things side of
00:30:15.980
the spectrum because i guess i i kind of grew up there and it it wasn't just not being allowed to talk
00:30:23.820
about certain things it was not being allowed to admit certain things about yourself and that
00:30:31.500
wasn't great for me i really like it on the other side so thanks for me bringing me over there for
00:30:37.660
showing me i had the right to do it reminds me of a scene from madagascar where they have the fun
00:30:43.260
side of the island and then the not fun side of the island and they're like you're always welcome
00:30:46.860
on the fun side of the island just come over it's a party over here you don't need to be so sad and
00:30:53.100
angry at everyone and this is true progressives on average are much sadder than republicans they
00:30:58.300
have been since pew started recording this data and and i and i just love that scene and i've even
00:31:02.860
gone back to watch it i'm like the the the the fun side of the island scene because that's the way it
00:31:08.220
is when you when you join the conservative side and you realize that all the fun people are already
00:31:13.260
over here and we're all having fun and you're welcome over here and we are not the boogey man that
00:31:18.140
you have been told yeah well speaking of fun let's go play with our kids yeah i love you i love you too