Full Comment - May 18, 2026


Canada’s too late now to save CUSMA from a Trump rewrite...or worse


Episode Stats


Length

40 minutes

Words per minute

162.12851

Word count

6,641

Sentence count

399

Harmful content

Hate speech

8

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Tracy Morin joins me from her home in Washington, D.C. to talk about the ongoing trade talks between Canada and the United States, and why she thinks there's no chance of a deal being struck.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:01:02.200 If you're looking to have a clear picture of where things are at when it comes to trade talks between Canada and the United States, good luck.
00:01:09.300 Right now, what we're getting is a lot of secrecy, and when we do get messages, they're often conflicting.
00:01:15.160 Hello and welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.
00:01:17.100 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.
00:01:19.000 You'll know that over the last year, Prime Minister Mark Carney has been telling us that deeper integration with the United States, well, those days are over.
00:01:26.860 Being too close to the Americans, that's a weakness.
00:01:29.560 And yet, recently at a summit in Toronto co-hosted by the Center for American Progress, Mark Carney not only embraced people like Barack Obama, Alex Soros, and others, he said he's open to deeper integration.
00:01:44.160 Canada, like Mexico, like Mexico, Canada remains open to deeper integration, including options for fortress North America in selected sectors.
00:01:56.600 And to be clear, those offers are on the table.
00:02:00.440 If that leaves you confused, well, you're not alone.
00:02:03.380 Then, just recently, he also was asked about the talks with the United States and the fact that Honda decided to pull out of its plans for an expanded auto plant here.
00:02:13.420 The Japanese have made it clear if there is no access to the American market from Canada, they're not going to be investing.
00:02:20.780 Here's what Carney said in response to that.
00:02:22.980 Well, as we've said, we're ready to sit down for those negotiations.
00:02:30.300 We know what the major trade issues are for the United States.
00:02:35.080 We have a series of issues around the strategic sectors, including the auto sector, the steel sector, aluminum, forest products particularly.
00:02:42.740 now derivatives of copper and aluminum and steel.
00:02:48.680 There are big opportunities for both of us
00:02:51.980 if we can come to an agreement.
00:02:54.680 It takes Americans to focus,
00:02:56.880 and I'm sure once they're finished with their discussions with China,
00:03:00.160 they'll focus.
00:03:00.920 So where do things stand?
00:03:02.500 Well, we can look at it from the Canadian point of view
00:03:04.660 or ask someone in the American capital.
00:03:07.120 Tracy Morin is a journalist.
00:03:08.560 She writes for National Post and covers things cross-border from the United States.
00:03:14.920 She joined me from her home in Virginia.
00:03:17.920 So, Tracy, you're in Washington.
00:03:19.880 We've just heard the prime minister say that, well, we're waiting on the Americans.
00:03:24.720 I'm talking to people in Washington on both sides who say more often than not that, well, actually, the Americans are waiting on us.
00:03:34.020 It doesn't seem like there's a clear sense of what's going on.
00:03:36.820 what are you hearing from the folks that you're talking to in D.C. about where the talks are and
00:03:42.620 who's waiting on who? That's an interesting question, Brian. Thanks for asking. I'm hearing
00:03:48.260 both, frankly. I'm hearing that the Canadians are waiting for the Americans to reach out,
00:03:53.160 and I'm also hearing from those in touch with the American negotiators that they are waiting
00:03:58.560 for the Canadians to reach out and that they're surprised that the Canadians haven't. What's a
00:04:03.040 little alarming to me in recent days is that there are now suggestions within the Beltway that
00:04:09.160 Americans may be starting to come to the realization or the supposition that Carney
00:04:15.200 may not be serious about reaching a deal. I don't know if that's true, but that is something that is
00:04:21.680 being whispered about more and more, and that is concerning.
00:04:25.380 It does seem like there is, at the least, a waiting game going on.
00:04:32.980 And we've heard Carney's team talk openly about this, that, well, maybe we wait until the midterms and maybe things change.
00:04:43.460 It seems like there's an awful lot in flux right now.
00:04:46.060 Now, maybe you can explain for listeners in Canada, you know, polling would seem to show that the Democrats are going to take an awful lot of seats in the House in the midterms.
00:04:58.480 But at the same time, you've got redistricting happening absolutely everywhere across the United States.
00:05:04.860 You've got blue states saying, oh, we're going to redraw our maps so that it favors Democrats.
00:05:08.920 Red states saying, we're going to redraw our maps to favor Republicans.
00:05:13.040 And then you've got that Supreme Court decision on race-based districts, and that's going to change the map.
00:05:19.720 So do we even know what the map looks like and who's going to win?
00:05:23.880 It seems like flux would be the best word to describe what's going on.
00:05:28.460 And in the middle of all this flux, we've got a Canadian government possibly saying, let's just wait and see.
00:05:34.600 Yeah. Well, here, I'm based in Virginia, and we just had a vote, and the Supreme Court and the state overturned it.
00:05:41.840 and it will probably be fought all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court.
00:05:44.760 So is the map set?
00:05:46.440 No, probably not for now.
00:05:49.480 It'll be set November 1st.
00:05:51.380 Right.
00:05:54.040 There is, a lot of trade watchers are saying that there is a bit of a waiting game going on
00:05:59.100 and something that's smart of Carney's team to be laying low,
00:06:03.160 not risking any tit for tat or any escalatory language in the press,
00:06:07.820 and that they may be waiting to see if a Democratic Congress might be a little friendlier,
00:06:14.240 might assert more authority over trade and uphold USMCA, be a little bit easier to deal with.
00:06:23.780 The problem with that is that it means less certainty for now, of course. It means more
00:06:29.000 uncertainty for the businesses and the people whose jobs rely on the trade. And there's also
00:06:36.320 So what you pointed out, we don't know how it will turn out, right? The polls change every day. While it looks like the Republicans may not hold on to the House now, it's months away. And counting Trump out has never been a, it's always been a risky venture.
00:06:52.100 So I'm not sure that it's the smartest game, but it seems to be what the Kearney team may be doing. They may be waiting it out to see if they can get a more friendly Congress to deal with.
00:07:06.980 But even then, there's a risk there because it doesn't necessarily guarantee a better outcome for them, right? Because the businesses are lacking certainty now. It prolongs instability. But there is a risk that even if the legislative branch is a little friendlier towards USMCA and towards Canada, it doesn't mean that the White House will be.
00:07:32.320 So then you might set up an impasse between the legislative and the executive branches, and that just leads to more judicial reviews and more fighting in the courts.
00:07:40.500 So it's a risky game.
00:07:42.720 Well, isn't there also the possibility that Democrats are no friendlier to Canada in terms of trade than the Republicans?
00:07:53.620 Democrats have historically been more protectionist than Republican.
00:07:56.660 Now, protectionism seems to be in vogue on all sides in Washington.
00:08:03.540 And so the, you know, if the Democrats take the House, maybe they are friendlier to Canada, but still screwing is over on trade because, well, they've got a steel mill in their district that they want to protect.
00:08:18.460 Or there's a, you know, a farm group that has bent their ear on country of origin labeling.
00:08:25.040 Or, I mean, there's any myriad of things that the irritants between Canada and the U.S. on trade don't change that much, regardless of who's in power.
00:08:35.440 The tone does, but the trade irritants remain the same.
00:08:39.800 That's right. It's the tone, right?
00:08:41.600 So you're right that under Biden and other Democrats, there has been an unwillingness to necessarily lift all the tariffs that have been in place or the duties that have been put in place by Republican administrations.
00:08:55.040 But a number of the U.S. states along the border are desperate for this trade to continue the way it has in the past.
00:09:03.020 So I think that a Democratic Congress would be much more in favor of retaining USMCA.
00:09:11.900 And frankly, they're going to be looking to assert some more trade authority over the presidency because that's been lacking over the past year.
00:09:19.340 So they will be trying to stand up to Trump.
00:09:22.460 Can you break this down for Canadian listeners?
00:09:25.040 um trade authority and who has it um i know that it normally rests with congress but congress can
00:09:34.000 give authority like fast track trade authority to say to the president okay you can go negotiate a
00:09:40.560 deal then you got to bring it back to us i know that one of the reasons the aipa tariffs were
00:09:47.460 struck down is that the supreme court said no congress didn't give you that authority
00:09:52.880 Unfortunately, the Section 232 tariffs, the ones that actually hit Canada, remain in place because, well, that legislation is pretty clear that it gives the president that authority.
00:10:02.000 So how does this work in terms of the back and forth and what could a Democratic Congress do to support USMCA or KUSMA that isn't being done now?
00:10:15.400 I could just say that because the USMCA was ratified by Congress, they will be looking to ensure that they have a voice in any major changes to USMCA. They're not going to appreciate it being undermined or maybe even bilateral deals being cut on the side that would interfere with a treaty that they had ratified. And that those voices would be stronger if it's a Democratic-controlled House.
00:10:42.820 Okay. What about the general sense of Democrats in Washington nowadays? Am I overplaying that
00:10:52.400 protectionism is in vogue with all parties? Kind of like how everyone used to love China,
00:10:59.200 and now none of the parties like China. Is it kind of that way in Washington right now?
00:11:05.680 That seems to be the one area where there is bipartisan agreement,
00:11:09.160 is being tough on China. Yes. But I don't think that that necessarily extends to Canada. It would
00:11:15.480 extend to Canada on any outlets through which China may be using Canada to reach the U.S.
00:11:21.500 markets, but that would be about it. Okay. So it was the Biden administration that wanted us to
00:11:27.820 block the Chinese electric vehicles. And we put in the 100% tariff on those because of the Biden
00:11:36.680 administration, not the Trump administration. So the issue of alcohol seems to be a sore spot.
00:11:46.040 U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer brought it up at a hearing, a congressional hearing a
00:11:51.600 little while ago. I know that as I speak to people in the industry and politicos here in Canada,
00:11:58.100 they say it is one of the first things that Ambassador Pete Hoekstra raises in absolutely
00:12:03.920 every meeting. Why are you guys not putting American booze back on the shelves?
00:12:10.760 How did that become such a huge thing in Washington, D.C.? You think of all the trade
00:12:17.180 that we do, all the cars, the lumber, the steel, the digital services, and we're talking about
00:12:23.780 wine and whiskey. Yes, you're right. I think part of it was because the campaign was so public,
00:12:28.780 It was part of this anti-American sentiment that the Liberal Party successfully used electorally.
00:12:38.000 And I remember seeing on social all of these ads about Buy Canadian and how all of the U.S. liquor had been cleared from the shelves in these various provinces.
00:12:48.000 And it has had an impact.
00:12:50.180 The spirits exports to Canada from the U.S. fell over 70 percent over the past year.
00:12:56.460 And I saw complaints from Jack Daniels and Woodford Reserve, the company that owns them, that they saw a 59% plunge in Canadian sales over the past year.
00:13:08.860 So it's definitely having an impact on U.S. liquor companies.
00:13:15.680 But I also just think it's a big poke in the eye to the Trump administration, right?
00:13:19.800 And it's been a very public poke in the eye from the Canadian side.
00:13:23.140 So that's part of what you're seeing play out in the rhetoric from the trade negotiators and from the ambassador.
00:13:30.060 And President Trump has made it clear he doesn't like getting poked in the eye.
00:13:34.820 The whole issue around the ad that Ontario was running, quoting Ronald Reagan, seemed to infuriate him.
00:13:41.460 Now, I don't believe that the ad is why talks were called off.
00:13:45.040 And I've written about that, that there were other things happening in the background, like, you know, Melanie Jolie putting tariffs on Canadian or on American cars coming into Canada that hadn't previously existed.
00:13:58.680 and threatening to sue GM in Stellantis.
00:14:01.920 These things didn't help,
00:14:02.980 but there really was a sense
00:14:07.940 that Trump and people around him
00:14:09.800 felt insulted by that ad.
00:14:12.060 Did it create a stir otherwise in the United States?
00:14:16.600 I mean, you're in a pretty political town.
00:14:18.820 Did anyone ever outside of work say,
00:14:22.260 oh, how about that Canadian ad in the World Series?
00:14:26.360 I mean, some people thought it was odd
00:14:28.380 that it was playing. Some people thought it was funny. I will say most within the beltway
00:14:32.900 on the Republican side did not want to comment on it because there are a lot of Reagan lovers
00:14:37.100 here, of course, and they did not want to be seen to be speaking ill of the president's
00:14:44.060 view on that ad. I don't think it had a major impact for Americans at large. I don't think
00:14:49.840 that they pay much attention to these things. I don't think Americans in general pay much
00:14:53.340 attention to foreign policy either. So I'm not sure it will have a lasting impact on the American
00:14:59.060 electorate. I'll ask the question that, you know, I know the answer to, but it always hurts
00:15:05.020 Canadians. Do Americans pay much attention to Canada or think about Canada all that much?
00:15:10.760 Well, we certainly think about Canada when it comes to hockey.
00:15:13.540 You did have a story recently, though, a poll that showed that Americans thought Canadians were more reliable than Donald Trump when it comes to trade. Tell me about that.
00:15:31.600 Right. That was based on a Leger poll from late April that said that 50% of Americans trust Canada to negotiate in trade talks in good faith, while only 42% trust the Trump administration to do the same.
00:15:46.380 And it's an interesting look, right? Like the idea that more people in the United States trust the Canadian negotiation team when it comes to trade talks.
00:15:57.700 But it's really, when you look at it closely, it's a breakdown along partisan lines. So you're automatically going to have a good 20 percentage points of people on the Democratic side who will say that they're opposed to anything the Trump administration will be doing. So that's already built in.
00:16:11.820 The real movement, I guess, was with the independents. So it is showing that there is a clear shift in the United States where people are growing increasingly fed up by some of the hostile rhetoric, but also the unpredictability, the higher inflation rates, the higher prices, and the trade tensions.
00:16:32.860 the uh issue of of kuzma and or usmca and how it impacts daily lives of people in both countries
00:16:43.480 i'm pretty sure that canadians are more acutely aware of that than americans i know that you know
00:16:49.440 if we go to your i know you're originally from michigan if we went to michigan and asked people
00:16:53.860 about free trade they would know all about it because of the auto industry you go to certain
00:16:59.820 parts of Ohio or New York State. Absolutely, they know about it. But I think it becomes
00:17:05.620 less important the further away you get from the border. So Jameson Greer said there are
00:17:13.980 load-bearing walls in this deal, that it's very important. But do average Americans see this as
00:17:22.560 an important deal? I think so. I think the free trade agreement has been going on for years and
00:17:28.700 years and that people understand here that it's important to all three economies. They may not
00:17:33.620 understand the extent to which it is. I would say that there is some concern that Trump's rhetoric
00:17:41.960 has convinced people who might be slightly right of center in America that he's right about the
00:17:52.860 Canadian viewpoint. And that we saw it recently in a Gallup poll, for instance, that Americans'
00:18:01.400 positive views of Canada have dropped by, I think, 11 percentage points over the past year.
00:18:06.880 Now, American viewpoints of many countries have dropped. And again, that's probably related to
00:18:12.700 Trump's rhetoric. But they're saying that Trump's rhetoric specifically about Canada has a lot to do
00:18:19.140 with that drop, and it's largely on the right in America, it doesn't mean that it would stay that
00:18:24.220 way. But it does show you that the power of the messaging from the presidency does have an effect
00:18:29.940 on views of Americans towards Canada. And that would relate to the USMCA deal as well.
00:18:38.680 Yeah, I mean, some of the rhetoric about Canada has been over the top. Look, I'm the first to admit
00:18:42.980 That you guys have some legitimate grievances when it comes to how we operate this trade deal, just as we have legitimate grievances of how you do.
00:18:52.760 But some of the claims are simply not based in reality.
00:18:57.460 All right, we need to take a quick break.
00:18:59.200 When we come back, I'll look at where things are going from here and whether Mark Carney is just looking for this deal to die.
00:19:06.960 Back in moments.
00:19:07.960 there were so many missed opportunities to catch this before the devastating thing happened
00:19:16.540 a third of them we found literally in the phone book these people were not afraid they knew that
00:19:23.200 nobody was effectively hunting them they knew they had escaped justice that they were going to die in
00:19:28.980 their beds when i give talks at law schools is that the charter ultimately is empowering a minority
00:19:33.340 and it's empowering a minority that's a guild across the country and it's a fairly elite guild
00:19:37.560 and they killed his lawyers.
00:19:38.520 Families who were split by referendum
00:19:41.300 and brothers and sisters
00:19:43.660 who never talked to each other
00:19:45.060 for years after the referendum
00:19:46.540 because they were so angry at each other
00:19:48.520 because of the emotions on both sides.
00:19:51.300 The reason he was assassinated
00:19:52.700 was not because he was trying
00:19:54.380 to put a satellite into space,
00:19:56.100 but because the gun that he was creating
00:20:00.400 had other applications
00:20:02.040 that made him and the gun very dangerous.
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00:21:57.460 I'm disappointed that I came to Canada,
00:21:59.580 a candidate that it is very, very difficult to find Canadians who are passionate about the American-Canadian relationship.
00:22:09.920 Elbows up. Me too.
00:22:12.980 You know, it was an anti-American campaign.
00:22:16.620 And that has continued. That's disappointing.
00:22:20.560 That's Ambassador Pete Hoogstra, Donald Trump's representative in Canada.
00:22:24.660 And while I, you know, get along fine with Ambassador Pete, not everyone does.
00:22:30.400 He is not everyone's cup of tea.
00:22:32.460 Lots of Canadians love to hate him.
00:22:35.200 And I wanted to ask you, Tracy, what are people saying about Hoekstra in Washington, D.C.?
00:22:41.340 I've heard not great things about him here as well, unfortunately.
00:22:45.720 So obviously he caught a lot of headlines by having his exchange the way he did with David Patterson.
00:22:54.660 And that didn't sit well.
00:22:55.880 That would be the Ontario trade representative, and they had a blowout in Ottawa back in October, I think.
00:23:03.400 Right. And it was off the record, but there were people in the room, and they heard the profanities that were used, and it has made the noise.
00:23:12.240 He's calmed down quite a bit since then, but he's had a few gaffes.
00:23:16.260 And what I've heard from trade watchers in D.C. is that people were, at least a month ago, they were quite fed up with Ambassador Hoekstra.
00:23:27.160 They were, the USTR was saying that they were really unhappy with some of the headlines that he was generating in Canada.
00:23:35.260 And I even had one tell me that if Trump is the most unpopular person in Canada, that Pete Hoekstra is number two, and for good reason.
00:23:43.800 and that some people in the administration were looking to get rid of him.
00:23:47.840 Now, I know that he's been more conciliatory recently in the press.
00:23:51.740 I know he's been doing a lot of podcasts and smaller outlets,
00:23:54.420 and he's been sounding a lot less antagonistic.
00:24:00.080 So I don't know if that has changed the views within the administration recently,
00:24:04.600 but I do know that there's been an effort by Hoekstra to be more engaging.
00:24:08.380 Well, the politics on both sides, whether it's pronouncements by Donald Trump or Pete Hoekstra that drive the American side or Canadian side to distraction or comments by Prime Minister Carney, like his Davos speech that upset the Americans or something that Doug Ford says when he goes on CNN with Wolf Blitzer, which he knows is just going to get under the president's skin.
00:24:33.460 And the politicians are really seeming to get in the way of talks in this.
00:24:38.960 They seem to throw grenades in every once in a while.
00:24:42.360 And, you know, I watch Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, and we've just appointed Janice Charette as Canada's chief negotiator.
00:24:51.380 We've got a new ambassador in Mark Wiseman.
00:24:54.140 We've got a new chief negotiator.
00:24:56.640 You know, previously, Kristen Hillman had been ambassador and chief negotiator.
00:25:01.940 But I look at Greer and I look at Charette and I think, okay, these are two people that seem pretty reasonable.
00:25:11.180 They're both smart.
00:25:13.440 Put them in a room and let them talk.
00:25:15.160 I think we'd have a deal by lunch.
00:25:18.720 Yes, exactly.
00:25:19.820 But they met back in March, right?
00:25:21.580 So I believe that Charette met with both Ambassador Wiseman and Greer.
00:25:27.060 And I think that was the last time anyone had a get-together.
00:25:29.620 I know that there have been discussions or back-channeling, but there haven't been any formal talks between the two sides.
00:25:34.800 And that's concerning because it's already now too late for us to hammer out a deal between the U.S. and Canada ahead of the July 1st.
00:25:42.180 Why do you say it's too late now?
00:25:44.600 I've just had trade negotiators tell me that based on how the negotiations have gone with the Mexican teams and with Mexico,
00:25:53.140 that it's taken a number of months to get to a certain point,
00:25:55.960 and we just don't have that time to hammer everything out on the Canadian side.
00:26:01.700 So even if they started today, it would go long past July 1st at this point.
00:26:06.480 All right, so I want to play a clip of Greer.
00:26:10.620 He was on Fox News the other day, and he was asked,
00:26:14.540 he was on with Brian Kilmeade, who asked him whether there's the possibility
00:26:19.200 that talks could just fall apart.
00:26:22.560 Here's Greer.
00:26:23.140 The way to think about this is we have a review coming up that's required by U.S. statute and by the agreement on July 1st.
00:26:32.700 And what that means is that each party to the agreement, each country, has an opportunity to say,
00:26:37.400 you know what, we'll just renew this, we'll rubber stamp it, or we'll go on the path to exiting the agreement over a period of years,
00:26:44.400 but during that time we'll try to negotiate resolutions to the issues we see in the agreement.
00:26:48.760 And I would say that I don't think President Trump is inclined to just rubber stamp this.
00:26:53.980 USMCA has a lot of stuff in it that's important for the economy, some load-bearing pillars.
00:26:58.400 But we expected to see a lot more production reshored to the United States, and there wasn't enough.
00:27:03.640 So clearly there are things there that need to be fixed.
00:27:05.560 So I think we're going to be in a mode of trying to improve that.
00:27:08.580 So, Tracy, I mean, what Greer was describing there is that the U.S. could just say on July 1st, we're out, we're going to kill the deal.
00:27:19.460 That takes a while for it to actually be put in place.
00:27:23.100 But then that kind of puts us under the gun if we want to renegotiate something else, doesn't it?
00:27:28.000 I mean, this is a weird position that Canada's in.
00:27:31.020 Yes. And most of the trade experts I've spoken with have said that they expect the Trump administration to threaten to pull out and that we will start to see a lot more language like that in the coming weeks in the run up to July 1st. But most seem to believe that in the end, the U.S. administration understands the impact that would have on both economies and that they will try to hammer out some sort of deal or at least continue the negotiation.
00:28:01.020 The wild card is Trump, right?
00:28:02.680 The problem is nobody knows what he will do from day to day, and there's no predicting it necessarily.
00:28:07.820 I think that the trade negotiators believe that the threats will continue, but that at the end of the day, they expect some sort of deal.
00:28:16.540 Whether it will be anything like what we've had in the past or whether it will be hammered out in a bilateral agreement later remains to be seen.
00:28:25.300 Well, I know in the last round of negotiations, we essentially had to agree to the deal that Mexico had negotiated and just sign on to it at the last minute.
00:28:36.180 Maybe we end up there again.
00:28:39.340 Greer's deputy trade negotiator, a guy named Rick Schweitzer, was at a conference recently and did not have the best words to say about Mark Carney.
00:28:50.160 So I want to play that for you and then ask you what people are saying about Carney in Washington.
00:28:56.160 So here's Schweitzer accusing Mark Carney of political malpractice for not being serious enough about getting the deal.
00:29:04.200 I think Carney has made it personal.
00:29:06.100 I think it's political malpractice for the prime minister of a Canadian, you know, of Canada to pit politically himself against any president.
00:29:16.920 I don't care what the president is, who the president is, what party they represent.
00:29:20.260 It's political malpractice.
00:29:21.800 Canada is dependent upon the U.S. economy.
00:29:24.520 That's just a fact, right?
00:29:25.860 That's not hubris.
00:29:27.240 That's not something that Canada needs to be concerned about.
00:29:30.460 It's not something Canada can change, right?
00:29:32.300 The fundamental fact is geography wins out.
00:29:36.080 Canada is located where it's located.
00:29:38.140 They can't move shop.
00:29:39.540 They can have a weak economy that is underperforming and not doing well,
00:29:45.060 and Carney can feel superior or they can have an economy that participates with as a partner
00:29:50.900 of the U.S. economy and Carney can do what a grownup should do, which is figure out, figure it
00:29:56.080 out. OK, so, Tracy, my guess is that views of Carney will go along partisan lines for the most
00:30:03.140 part. You know, you've got the serious people at the top like the Greers and Scott Besson.
00:30:07.500 They'll probably have a measured view of them. But the rest, it's going to be partisan of
00:30:11.900 Republicans, ooh, boo, hiss, and Democrats, he's the savior of the progressive world.
00:30:17.820 What are you hearing about him?
00:30:20.500 Or, you know, is this view expressed by Schweitzer something that's kind of prevalent?
00:30:26.340 Like, this guy's not taking trade talks seriously.
00:30:30.400 The Trump administration was offended by the Davos speech, right, with Carney kind of
00:30:35.080 representing himself as the global leader of a progressive movement and globalization
00:30:40.620 in general.
00:30:41.440 And it was a bit of a poke in the eye to Donald Trump. So that has not sat well with the president. Meeting with people like Obama and Soros, those types of things are also not sitting well with Republicans. So like there's even been talk of foreign interference and waiting for a Democratic Congress, all of those things, meeting with Obama and Soros, these can be issues that will rile the U.S. administration.
00:31:06.740 um so some of this relates to the earlier question about whether or not Canada has been making
00:31:13.240 overtures to the U.S. side and I am starting to get the impression that the U.S. may be waiting
00:31:19.240 for an apology from Carney or some sort of overture that is apologetic and that maybe the
00:31:24.000 Canadian side is also waiting for some sort of an apology for the hostile rhetoric and that we're
00:31:28.500 just waiting to see who blinks first we've got we've got Donald Trump in China right now and
00:31:36.380 looking to do a trade deal. Mark Carney was there back in January. And my problem with the deal that
00:31:47.060 Mark Carney wanted to or is trying to strike with China or did is that it goes beyond trade.
00:31:52.940 It's about a strategic partnership and security issues that I just do not trust China on. 0.86
00:31:59.220 um i think both of our countries should do more trade with china but there is a lot there does
00:32:07.900 seem to be a lot of uh anxiety you could say on the american side about what canada is trying to
00:32:17.320 do with china the electric vehicles the 49 000 moving up to 72 000 electric vehicles the
00:32:22.880 security partnerships. They really don't want us getting too close to China, do they? 0.82
00:32:32.440 No, they certainly don't. They want Canada, they want a fortress America. They want a security 0.59
00:32:38.100 guarantee that keeps China out and protects North America from Chinese interference.
00:32:46.720 There's also concern that these MOUs haven't been made transparent to people. So there's not a
00:32:52.340 true understanding yet of what's been agreed to between Canada and China.
00:32:57.480 Well, we just had a new Democrat MP, Jenny Kwan, who is one of the MPs of Chinese heritage who
00:33:05.860 was targeted by China in foreign interference, come out and demand that the government release
00:33:11.280 this, especially on cooperation with police. And yet Parliament has been told, we can't give you
00:33:17.880 new information on what the RCMP is going to be doing with the police in Beijing.
00:33:23.560 I mean, that should be worrying for Canadians, never mind our neighbors next door.
00:33:29.260 What's your sense of where we go over the coming weeks?
00:33:35.300 Is it a lot of still wait and see?
00:33:37.720 Is it a lot more rhetoric?
00:33:40.520 Where do we end up by July 1st?
00:33:44.000 uh in the coming weeks i think you're going to see a ramp up of rhetoric um on both sides of
00:33:52.600 course uh i think that the us um the ustr will be trying to finalize the 301 investigation on
00:34:01.080 forced labor that would give them a little bit more leverage in any usmca review so i know that
00:34:08.560 Greer is hoping to finalize that by early July.
00:34:12.660 If that is the case, the 301 investigations are widely expected to lead to more tariffs.
00:34:19.240 And depending on how broad those are, those could be even stacked on top of the 232s.
00:34:25.480 That could be quite punishing.
00:34:27.040 So these would be extra tariffs on Canada.
00:34:30.800 Correct.
00:34:31.040 And one trade specialist I was talking to here said he believes that they will find, using that 301 tariff or 301 investigation, that our booze ban is actually an unfair trading practice and we could get more tariffs because of the booze ban.
00:34:49.920 Have you heard that?
00:34:51.680 I think that's a different – that would be under a different one, right?
00:34:54.460 So I think that that – yeah, I think that's a different one.
00:34:57.340 But, but, but essentially, everyone I've spoken to said that whatever the investigation finds, they expect it to lead to tariffs. So basically, that it's a done deal that this is the way the White House is rebuilding the IEPA global tariff wall. The big, the big concern for Canada is that the IEPA tariffs always had carve outs for the USMCA compliant goods.
00:35:18.740 So those escaped those tariffs. Same for the replacement. After the U.S. Supreme Court shot down the IEPA tariffs in March, the administration replaced them with the Section 122 tariffs, which are temporary.
00:35:40.120 Those also had carve-outs for the USMCA-compliant goods.
00:35:43.780 There is no indication that the 301 tariffs will follow suit.
00:35:49.220 And I've spoken with an international trade lawyer who actually is concerned that the intention by the administration is for that not to be the case.
00:35:56.480 Some still hope it will be, but it could be that USMCA-compliant goods are not covered and that a broad 301 tariff on Canada could be quite punishing.
00:36:08.920 And I've even heard that businesses are starting to be more concerned by that
00:36:12.240 than they are the USMCA review.
00:36:15.600 Oh, more headaches.
00:36:18.060 Maybe headaches that we could, you know, avoid
00:36:21.060 if Mark Carney decided to try and get a deal instead of playing politics.
00:36:26.340 But time will tell.
00:36:27.980 Tracy, thanks so much for the time.
00:36:29.440 I wanted to just say that the hardening of views in Canada towards the United States
00:36:34.420 and this anti-Americanism that Carney has used successfully for electoral gains,
00:36:41.480 which is completely understandable, they could backfire, though, for him, right?
00:36:45.520 Because it makes it harder for him to make any compromises with the U.S. administration in the long run.
00:36:50.680 So it makes trade talks harder, makes reaching any sort of agreement harder
00:36:54.560 if he then has to then go back and sell any major concessions to the Canadian people.
00:37:00.860 Well, look, I'm hearing from people that don't want us to do any trade with the United States.
00:37:06.100 I hear from them daily, and they see anything that grants the U.S. one inch, one centimeter.
00:37:15.040 Make it a centimeter.
00:37:16.160 They see that as being traitorous, and they would rather us have no trade, which is unrealistic.
00:37:22.060 But that is kind of the sentiment of many people, and Mark Carney has leaned into that.
00:37:28.340 So I think you're right.
00:37:29.120 It could make things much more difficult.
00:37:31.980 I worry about what this means for our country and our economy.
00:37:36.920 But thanks so much for your time, Tracy.
00:37:38.980 Thanks for your insight from Washington or from Virginia.
00:37:42.180 And enjoy the better weather that you're having down there than we are up here in Canada.
00:37:47.280 Thanks so much.
00:37:48.280 Thank you, Brian.
00:37:48.920 It's been an absolute pleasure.
00:37:50.800 Full Comment is a Postmedia production.
00:37:53.260 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.
00:37:54.720 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.
00:37:56.980 Theme music by Bryce Hall.
00:37:58.280 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
00:38:00.760 Please remember to hit subscribe, share this on social media, and let your friends know about us.
00:38:05.880 Thanks for listening.
00:38:06.680 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.
00:38:11.840 There were so many missed opportunities to catch this before the devastating thing happened.
00:38:18.560 A third of them we found literally in the phone book.
00:38:22.000 These people were not afraid.
00:38:24.220 They knew that nobody was effectively hunting them.
00:38:26.800 They knew they had escaped justice, that they were going to die in their beds. 0.53
00:38:31.380 When I give talks at law schools, it's that the Charter ultimately is empowering a minority.
00:38:35.200 And it's empowering a minority that's a guild across the country.
00:38:38.200 And it's a fairly elite guild, and the guild is lawyers.
00:38:40.220 Families who were split by referendum and brothers and sisters who never talked to each other for years after the referendum
00:38:48.200 because they were so angry at each other because of the emotions on both sides.
00:38:52.860 The reason he was assassinated was not because he was trying to put a satellite into space,
00:38:57.660 but because the gun that he was creating had other applications that made him and the gun very dangerous.
00:39:08.040 It's finally here. A new season of Canada Did What?
00:39:11.860 Host media podcast that revisits the big Canadian political events you might think you remember
00:39:17.260 and tells you the real story you never knew.
00:39:20.300 I'm Tristan Hopper.
00:39:21.840 The voices you just heard are from our brand new season two.
00:39:25.640 We will unpack some of the pivotal moments that helped define our country,
00:39:29.380 often without a vote, usually without a plan,
00:39:31.940 and sometimes without anyone admitting what they've done.
00:39:35.780 We'll find out how Canada became a welcoming paradise 0.72
00:39:38.820 for untold numbers of Nazi war criminals after the Second World War. 0.85
00:39:43.420 We let them build monuments to their wartime exploits
00:39:46.200 and even ended up honouring a Nazi fighter in the House of Commons.
00:39:50.260 And I'm sorry to say that none of that happened by accident.
00:39:54.000 We'll bring you the little-known story of a troubled Canadian rocket scientist
00:39:57.680 who turned to a sinister life of selling giant guns to terrible people.
00:40:03.100 And if that sounds like a spy novel, it ends like one too.
00:40:06.480 You'll hear the behind-the-scenes story of Quebec's attempted secession from Canada
00:40:10.280 and how very close we came to a political crisis
00:40:13.540 that would have made Brexit look like a picnic.
00:40:16.840 You'll hear about how the much-celebrated Charter of Rights and Freedoms
00:40:20.560 turned into something its creators never wanted,
00:40:23.720 and how many of the most extravagant warnings about the document
00:40:26.920 were all quickly proven true.
00:40:29.540 And you'll even hear about how authorities bungled multiple chances
00:40:33.160 to stop the deadliest terrorist attack in our country's history
00:40:36.120 and then proceeded to pretend it never happened.
00:40:39.620 These aren't dusty history lessons.
00:40:41.740 There are stories about power, ambition, madness, and the things about Canada that a lot of people would rather ignore.
00:40:48.540 But not you! You won't want to miss an episode.
00:40:51.820 Subscribe to make sure you get all of Season 2 starting March 2026 anywhere you get your podcasts.