Canadian politics plays right into the Carney Liberals’ hands
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Summary
The Supreme Court strikes down Donald Trump's tariffs on Friday morning, but wait, it doesn't apply to Canada. What does that mean for Canada? And what does it mean for the rest of the world? We talk about all that and more on this week's episode of the Full Comment Podcast.
Transcript
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It's the Family and Friends event at Shoppers Drug Mart.
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Get 20% off almost all regular-priced merchandise.
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Tuesday, February 24th, and Wednesday, February 25th.
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everything takes on a creamy, delicious, chocolatey glow.
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So, whatever you think is going to happen in the future,
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The great thing about news is you never know what's going to happen.
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And while we had planned on doing an episode that would mainly focus on
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Mark Carney's attempt to get a majority government by poaching other MPs,
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Donald Trump's tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday morning,
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And there's more, as they say, in those late-night infomercials.
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We're still going to talk about floor crossers,
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such as Matt Jenneroo, joining Mark Carney earlier this week.
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First, became a member of the Legislative Assembly here in Alberta in 2012.
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And then elected four consecutive times as an MP.
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Edmonton River Bend, I know it well from my time growing up,
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although it's changed a little bit since I was here.
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including on the international side, on the security side.
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But we'll start with the idea of the Supreme Court striking down Donald Trump's tariffs.
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It was a short-lived victory as Trump popped up to say,
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wait a minute, I'm going to keep more tariffs in place.
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Today, I will sign an order to impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122,
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over and above our normal tariffs already being charged.
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And we're also initiating several Section 301 and other investigations
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to protect our country from unfair trading practices of other countries and companies.
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A week where there's so much happening, you don't know where to start.
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Joining me to talk about all of that this week are two post-media columnists,
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So, Chris, Lauren, thanks for joining me in a very uneventful week in politics.
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Let's start with the tariff situation because, you know, as we talk here on Friday afternoon,
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A lot of Canadians celebrating, and I'm not sure why, one, this Supreme Court ruling doesn't apply
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to the tariffs that are on our lumber, on our steel, our aluminum, our autos.
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And by the way, Donald Trump just imposed new tariffs on everything else.
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If you listen to what he was saying after this decision came out, the man who's already
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unhinged at most times became even more unhinged.
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He said, the Supreme Court is disloyal to the United States.
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The six judges out of nine who voted against me are afraid to stand up for me.
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Oh, for crying out loud, for once, somebody was willing to stand up to him and tell him
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So from that standpoint, I mean, I know that there's not going to affect much about Canada
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My big concern with U.S. politics is always, how does it impact Canada?
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That's what I've, you know, reduced myself to over the last bunch of years, Chris, because
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Um, this won't impact our, our tariffs on, on the aforementioned goods, the, uh, the steel,
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These are the things that are really hurting us economically.
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I mean, it seems to me that there could be, I agree with Lauren about it being a psychological
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Um, I mean, we shouldn't be as obsessed with American politics as we are, even though God
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knows it has a huge effect on us, but to me, it is a huge psychological victory.
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If only because supposedly the Supreme court, the whole narrative was that the Supreme court
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Um, and if they ever didn't do what he wanted, then he would just defy them, but he can't do
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So there's a, I think I agree with about a psychological victory, but I think also possibly
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in terms of how it might benefit Canada, if it just makes Trump look dumb, um, and kind
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of useless and more people notice him ranting and raving and really losing the plot, which
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I really think he is like, we've been hearing people say Donald Trump's losing the plot for
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So I, I think potentially it could just weaken his position in trying to just fight this,
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this stupid war against Canada and Denmark, you know, and, and, and everyone else.
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The IE EPA tariffs, the international emergency economics act or whatever it's called.
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Um, uh, they are the ones that were struck down.
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The section 232 tariffs weren't even challenged because you know, the law is very clear that
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that's section 232 under the 1962 trade expansion act.
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And in that case, Lauren, the Congress clearly gave up the ability to impose tariffs for national
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Uh, the, by the way, the judges that, um, uh, voted against Donald Trump and were disloyal,
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uh, chief justice, John Roberts, justice, Neil Gorsuch, justice, Amy Coney Barrett.
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Those are three that are supposed to be on his side.
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Um, and then the three liberal judges, Sonia Sotomayor, uh, Elena Kagan, uh, Katanya Brown
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Jackson, uh, were the other three of the six with Thomas Alito and Kavanaugh voting, uh, a
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rule, you know, agreeing with a dissent that it was allowable under the law, but six, three
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So Trump loses only one of the judges who voted in his favor was a Trump appointee.
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Uh, and so this is a resounding defeat for Trump because even the people he appointed
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to the, to the court in his first term, mostly voted against him.
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Well, and I find the fact too, that the, that the ruling, uh, goes back.
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I mean, the thing I found that made me chuckle was that the ruling was just to like tariffs
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Like it goes out of its way to point this out that this goes back to like the war of
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This, this is, this is fundamental to American society that taxes though, not all tariffs
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as Brian points out, uh, are the, are the bailwick of Congress and tariffs or taxes on
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And, and it just completely blows up his whole, you know, the other countries pay the tariffs,
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um, narrative or the, well, we always, we always knew that that was, uh, incorrect.
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In some instances it's not because I do remember he said to Walmart, you're going to eat some
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But he said today when he was speaking about this decision, he said today that, you know,
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we still have to keep foreigners paying our tariffs and, you know, we have to keep them
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down with these tariffs and I think it's quite clear that he models this up in his mind all
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the time that he, somebody told him, probably, uh, Lutnick, the commerce secretary told him that
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if they impose tariffs, they'll be able to rehome all sorts of manufacturing from overseas.
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And that's all Trump wanted to know because he was, he's going after that former assembly
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Uh, and so it doesn't matter to him how it works.
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He just thinks tariffs are the most beautiful word in the dictionary.
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But he does have smart people around him who believe that this is the right way to go.
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You know, you can think Peter Navarro is crazy, but the man has a PhD in economics from Harvard.
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Um, and he fully believes in tariffs, uh, uh, has it, uh, he's got a PhD from, uh, I think it's
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university of Pennsylvania business school in economics.
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Jameson Greer, his U S trade representative is the architect of all this.
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Uh, and they found a new way to do it, which is the 1974 trade act.
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We have as Canadians spent far too much time trying to convince these guys who are true
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We sound like the high school teacher in Ferris Bueller's day off talking about Smoot
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And just like the kids in Ferris Bueller, the Trump guys are falling asleep and, and they're
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We need to find a negotiated settlement to get these either lifted or reduced.
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The things that, well, not so much as Carney said we would, I guess, but I mean, we, we
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have this, you know, we were not selling American liquor.
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Even as I was saying it, I was like, oh, Lawrence on this.
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Oh, I can, I can go to my local liquor store and get all the bourbon I want.
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We haven't responded in a way that sort of principled where we can claim that we've
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sort of, that we actually believe in what we're trying to preach to watching.
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You know, I was thinking about that the other day.
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Now Diageo, the global drinks maker had announced that it was closing a bottling plant in Amherstburg,
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Ontario, just outside of Windsor, a bottling plant that in my view, never made any sense.
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Uh, they took the, uh, they took crown Royal and added flavor to it to make the, the apple
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It was either made in Valleyfield, Quebec, hundreds of kilometers away, or in Gimli,
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Why were you bottling it there to then ship to the U S so that, you know, economically
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It had nothing to do with terrorists, but Doug Ford sounding very much like Trump said,
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you're going to do what I want, or you're going to pay.
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And he fought and he fought and he said, I'm going to take crown Royal off the shelves.
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And eventually all Diageo products off the table.
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It worked and he got $23 million worth of concessions from the company just announced
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So, you know, we, we are not being the purists that we're demanding the others be.
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Once again, everyone seems to be adopting Trump's measures of protectionism and you'll
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You know, what we'd learned about, uh, tariffs and free trade is that if we do what we're
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good at and other countries do what they're good at, the sum total of all of that manufacturing
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and trade is higher than if we all try to do everything for ourselves.
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Like if we're better at making scotch, we're not, but if, if we were, we make a whole bunch
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One of the best, one of the best arguments against Trump's tariffs that I saw was from
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a woman in, uh, California who owns a bakery and she posted on Facebook right after this
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started last year that she has a trade deficit with the grocery store where she buys her
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But that trade deficit enables her to make goods that she can sell at a profit.
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So we've known for years that tariffs were a mess.
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Uh, you know, they sort of went out of fashion with David Ricardo back in, in the 1700s.
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I don't care how many PhDs he's got around them.
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And thankfully, psychologically now, maybe some of the rest of the world will stand up
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And one of the frustrating things I find is, is that with this liquor thing, as, as, as
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stupid as I find it and, and sort of offensive, like we're limiting Canadians choices because
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It's, it's one of the only, because, you know, Ontario, for example, is, I mean, the
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LCBO must be one of the biggest purchasers of alcohol in the world.
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So it's one of the only places where the premier of Ontario can ever sort of have a comparable
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bully pulpit to Donald Trump or any other American president, because he, he's, that's one
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place where there's leverage, but it, it, it relies on government liquor stores.
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I mean, it's, it's just a, you know, it's frustrating living next to the United States,
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It's a, but the, you know, we have to find a way to do it.
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But to, to go back to what Lauren was just saying, and I agree with you that tariffs
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are a mess, Lauren, and I'm not a fan of them, but the other guys are, and it's not
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Like your premier told me to read this book by Robert Lighthouser a year ago to understand
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No trade is free, changing course, taking on China and helping America's workers.
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They believe that this will benefit America's workers, that it will bring jobs back to America.
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They fully believe that they, it's not a fad for them.
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And if we're still arguing as if we should just convince them that tariffs are bad, then
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nothing will change until, well, we get a new administration in that doesn't believe
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And if JD Vance gets in or Marco Rubio gets in, in the next presidential election, it won't
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Well, it might change, you know, at some point, Gorbachev came in and changed, uh, all
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of thinking in the Soviet Union, despite having been part of the apparatus for a decade, but
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Um, but the, I think one of the people who's really driving this is Howard Lutnick, the commerce
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He's a billionaire who's made money in some other angle, doesn't particularly understand
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politics, but because he's rich, he thinks he's a genius and everyone should listen to
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Uh, he's the one who was behind the Gordie Howe bridge, uh, threat from Trump that he wasn't
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going to allow it to open because he had talked to the people in Detroit who owned the ambassador
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Well, I said, that's all you have to say that Trump and his administration is that Canada's
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It's the, the, it's people have always said that, that Trump may, maybe not so much recently,
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but that Trump could be convinced to do almost anything by the last person he talked to.
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Like that, that he could be convinced to adopt a position.
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And I mean, Maddie Maroon, I don't know how many people know who he is, but I mean, this
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He owns the ambassador bridge between Windsor and Detroit, which is the only existing truck
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So he holds, you know, God knows how much trade, uh, hostage over that.
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I mean, your average car probably goes across that bridge twice before it gets on the lot.
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Um, so it's, it's, yeah, I mean, that was just stupid.
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Look, um, I, I, the only way we're getting the tariffs on Canada lifted though, is through
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And I want to point out that this past week we sent 370 people, government officials, bureaucrats,
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elected officials, business leaders, lobbyists, not to Washington.
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We sent them to Mexico on a six day, uh, trade junket to try and convince the Mexicans to
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stick with us in Kuzma at a time when the Americans are talking about getting rid of
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And I point out that in the last year, in the middle of all this, we have not done a similar
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We've sent Dominic LeBlanc and a couple of bureaucrats with them down to, for meetings.
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We haven't done a similar trade initiative and our American, the exports that we send
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to the Americans are worth 68 times what we send to Mexico.
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To me, it seems like the Carney guys realize, okay, dealing with Trump is tough.
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Seeing, uh, being seen to fight with them is good for me politically.
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Do you think that they want a deal or do you think they like the fight because it helps
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There is no consideration in the mind of a liberal that Trump's, I use this pun, uh, that,
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They, they, they would kill all the firstborn children in the country if they thought it
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They, and that's what the reason they are the most successful political organization in
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the Western world in the last 100 years is that that's all they focus on.
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Like, you know, we were talking a little bit earlier and I assume we're going to get into
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this a little bit later about Jamal Giovanni who went, the conservative MP who went to Washington
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to talk to Trump and then came back and said, you know, we have to, uh, we have to stop
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getting ourselves in a tizzy over, over the United States.
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He should be working in the liberal war room because he is making commercials for them that
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they will use in the next election, which I expect with, will be within the next election.
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He's too tight with J.D. Vance, who he met in law school at Yale, uh, and he's, he's too
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Trumpian, uh, but what, because what the conservative party in Canada needs is its own Canadian conservative
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And I would fault Poliev for a year of not coming up with one.
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I mean, all I would say is, is that I just don't think it's possible to, uh, conclude
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a deal with Donald Trump because he'll just turn around the next day and say, I don't like
00:21:44.580
I mean, he signed the free trade deal that he now wants to get rid of.
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I, I, I, I certainly agree that we should, uh, for the greater good, we should put up
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with Trump as best we can and make the best of it.
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And if that involves flattering the guy, uh, then fair enough.
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But I don't think there's any charm offensive that can do it.
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That's going to win over this administration, their whole thing is just, you know, the art
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This is his genius with the full force of the greatest, you know, military and economic
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I mean, what a genius he is for, for managing to bully people with that.
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I just don't think, I mean, Carney went to Carney went to Mar-a-Lago.
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I'm not sure what else he, they had nice photos.
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You went to the White House twice, not Mar-a-Lago.
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Let's do a quick round on Jamil Giovanni and the reaction to that is more reaction to him
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saying Canadians have to stop having a hissy fit, which when you look at it in the whole
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context, he's talking about protecting jobs and we need to protect jobs.
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And that's why he's doing what he does and let's stop having a hissy fit.
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More reaction to that than a liberal MP standing in the house of commons, calling him unity
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Uh, and David Hurley saying he's too ugly to be successful in politics.
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Uh, you know, I thought the guy was doing, and we had him on the podcast.
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I took him at his word that I thought he was trying to do what was, uh, good for Canada.
00:23:36.260
I mean, we've had this talk of let's have a team Canada approach.
00:23:40.560
And then this guy who's besties with the VP comes forward and says, let me help you.
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And the liberal say, no, we'd rather attack you because it helps us politically.
00:23:52.480
He, that, as far back as November, he offered to go down and work with the liberals as part
00:23:59.600
And they said, no, sorry, I meant, sorry, I meant recently with this last trip, but yeah,
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I mean, I think hissy fit was a ridiculous thing to say just for a politician, just not
00:24:14.700
I mean, if his, if his, if his point is Canadian jobs being, um, in great peril, and that is thanks
00:24:27.200
to Donald Trump, I mean, the Canadian say what you will about Canada's, you know, contribution
00:24:33.340
to global affairs, but I mean, the auto industry worked pretty well.
00:24:38.860
Uh, and that's a, that's a by not, you know, it's that's that, that exists across the Quebec
00:24:47.580
Essentially, I think, I think, I think a hissy fits completely understandable, frankly, not
00:24:54.700
useful, but nor would I criticize people for being really upset about it.
00:25:01.140
When we come back, we got to take a quick break.
00:25:03.140
When we come back, let's talk about floor crossings and Matt Jenneru, who, uh, said he
00:25:09.900
needed to leave politics to spend more time with his family.
00:25:12.840
And apparently has spent enough time with his family because he's a liberal now.
00:25:16.760
Things are feeling a little less human these days, aren't they?
00:25:20.400
But isn't the whole point of progress to make things more human?
00:25:23.780
That's why at TD, when we design a product, whether it's an app for making trading easier
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or monitoring your account for fraud, we ask one simple question.
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That's how we're making banking more simple, more seamless, and more intuitive.
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But most importantly, that's how TD is making banking more human.
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There were so many missed opportunities to catch this before the devastating thing happened.
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A third of them we found literally in the phone book.
00:26:00.900
They knew that nobody was effectively hunting them.
00:26:03.520
They knew they had escaped justice, that they were going to die in their beds.
00:26:07.820
When I give talks at law schools, it's that the Charter ultimately is empowering a minority.
00:26:11.800
And it's empowering a minority that's a guild across the country.
00:26:14.780
And it's a fairly elite guild, and the guild is lawyers.
00:26:16.780
Families who were split by a referendum and brothers and sisters who never talked to each
00:26:23.120
other for years after the referendum because they were so angry at each other because of
00:26:29.440
The reason he was assassinated was not because he was trying to put a satellite into space,
00:26:34.240
but because the gun that he was creating had other applications that made him and the
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So I had announced my resignation back in November, largely due to family reasons, but quite simply
00:28:45.400
couldn't sit on the sidelines after seeing what the Prime Minister was, the vicious agenda
00:28:51.980
he was undertaking across the country and across the world.
00:28:56.680
And quite honestly, it was the speech in Davos where you took everything head-on, and I think
00:29:04.520
for me, that's where a lot of the world changed.
00:29:07.820
I think it opened a lot of eyes for Canadians, Albertans, Evertonians, just how serious this
00:29:14.820
And for me, it felt disingenuine and quite simply wrong to be sitting on the sidelines anymore.
00:29:21.820
So I reached out to the Prime Minister's office, and he'll be joining his caucus, and I couldn't
00:29:30.480
There you have it, Matt Jenneru, once again, saying he couldn't sit on the sidelines.
00:29:38.400
Lauren, let's start with you on this, because he is an Edmonton area MP.
00:29:42.520
He may not be your member of Parliament, but he's from the Edmonton area.
00:29:46.320
Uh, I looked through all the records, and of course, Edmonton Riverbend, that the writing
00:29:52.720
he represents has only been around since 2015, and it's been stitched together over the years
00:30:01.960
The only thing that could come close to finding a liberal to represent this area was a guy named
00:30:06.620
Hugh Harry, in 1968, represented part of Edmonton that, you know, was kind of in that area.
00:30:15.400
That was the last liberal in that part of Edmonton.
00:30:19.220
Uh, does, does Matt Jenneru have a chance at winning?
00:30:22.360
Before we get into whether it's good or bad, does he have a chance of winning again as a
00:30:28.060
And, and there have been at the provincial level, ridings within the larger federal riding
00:30:39.760
And in fact, there was even one NDP member elected from a part of that federal riding.
00:30:44.780
So, is it possible with the right issues and the right national campaign that it could go
00:30:57.560
And Jenneru personally will not win after this.
00:31:05.820
I mean, I, I am a firm believer in, as a lot of people are, that you were elected to
00:31:12.860
represent your constituents as a, the member of a particular party.
00:31:17.320
If you decide to cross the floor, you should be required to step down, run in a by-election
00:31:22.400
to reaffirm that that's what your constituents want.
00:31:27.160
And, and I don't think he's going to be terribly effective with the liberals.
00:31:34.880
Oh, he's an advisor on international trade and defense and security issues.
00:31:39.500
I can, I can be named an advisor on defense issues.
00:31:45.200
Chris, um, let me read off the results of a Leger poll for Post Media.
00:31:53.740
What, uh, preferred process when a member of parliament changes party affiliation?
00:31:59.640
38% of Canadians said they should be required to run in a special by-election to get approval
00:32:04.920
of voters in his or her riding for changing parties.
00:32:08.340
26% said they should be required to sit as an independent until the next general election.
00:32:14.000
20% said they should be allowed to continue to do, uh, to cross the floor with no
00:32:26.760
As a practical matter, there will never be a rule that says, uh, any of those things because
00:32:34.220
no party would actually support such a rule if it had any teeth because they want people.
00:32:40.500
Well, the new Democrats would, but they, they will not never be in power.
00:32:47.700
Uh, in fact, I was looking at this the other day, I believe there's only one who's ever
00:32:51.700
done it at the federal level and it was quite a long time ago and I can't even remember his
00:32:56.720
Uh, he was a one-term MP and I think he sat for the liberals, NDP and Tories in the same.
00:33:07.520
That's, and that's why he ended up with the NDP.
00:33:10.220
Um, I, so I, I don't think such a law is possible.
00:33:15.060
Uh, and if it ever such a law existed, it would be like fixed election dates laws or
00:33:21.980
Like it would just be ignored or overturned if necessary when the circumstances existed.
00:33:30.000
We've had two laws on this at the provincial level.
00:33:34.420
One in, uh, I believe it was New Brunswick and it was brought in by the liberals and then
00:33:43.720
the conservatives got rid of it when they were elected.
00:33:49.300
Um, and then the conservatives got in, they scrapped it.
00:33:52.440
But in Manitoba, it was in place and it said you had to either sit as an independent or
00:34:02.440
And this was challenged in court and it survived.
00:34:07.060
That was, uh, it was Stephen Fletcher, the former federal conservative MP was in Brian
00:34:19.080
He kicked, they kicked him out, which means he changed party affiliation and he wanted
00:34:26.000
Well, that would mean changing party affiliation and he's not allowed to do that.
00:34:29.640
So he challenged it in court and the judge said, no, this is, this is allowable.
00:34:33.840
So Lauren, do you think that we should consider a law like that?
00:34:37.060
Or, you know, do you like the idea, but like Chris say, you know, realize that turkeys won't
00:34:43.580
Well, I mean, Chris was absolutely right about that.
00:34:46.960
It's, it's like proportional representation, all sorts of opposition parties love it.
00:34:52.040
And then as soon as they went a majority of the seats with 42% of the vote, oh no, we
00:35:00.440
Um, I would prefer it was a convention rather than a law that it just became our habit that
00:35:09.420
if you decided to switch parties in the middle of a term, you stepped down and you went honestly
00:35:15.760
to your constituents and said, here's why I'm changing.
00:35:22.080
It is a very interesting poll that Brian cited.
00:35:24.380
I mean, one of the things I'm not sure I'd ever seen this question asked quite so in black
00:35:29.960
and white like this and they asked Canadians, um, you know, what's your primary influence
00:35:36.460
Is it the leader of the party or the local candidate?
00:35:38.820
And it was only 14% across the board who said the local candidate.
00:35:47.740
And, and it like, I, I, I hate the emasculate that this.
00:35:53.580
If you talk to people who run election campaigns, they'll tell you it's actually lower.
00:36:03.380
I, I think, I think it leads to, you know, sheep like behavior and it, it, it leads people
00:36:11.820
to, it, it sort of convinces MPs that they have less power than they actually do.
00:36:15.620
So I don't want to reinforce that with the law that says, uh, you know, who you are doesn't
00:36:24.160
What matters is what the name, uh, on the, what the party name on the ballot was.
00:36:29.500
But at the same time, I think if it were a convention, which clearly isn't, uh, that,
00:36:39.040
I just wanted to flag another really interesting thing in that poll, which was that, um, so if
00:36:45.140
you look at the liberals, the conservatives, 10%, um, of both the liberal and conservative
00:36:51.440
voters, 10% said they voted primarily for the, uh, local candidate, but among liberals,
00:36:57.660
63% said they voted primarily for the leader conservatives, 37% primarily for the leader.
00:37:06.640
So I'm not even sure what, what that flags to me, but it seems like it flags something
00:37:15.660
And just so that people know that the total numbers, Chris said only 14% say they vote
00:37:21.160
for the local candidate, 39% of all Canadians say they vote for the party and 47% say they
00:37:29.600
And then just, I'm going to read out some numbers.
00:37:32.240
I told you what people, uh, thought should happen, uh, and should, um, should floor crossings
00:37:40.840
Um, you know, it really does vary by, by party.
00:37:45.320
So 42% of all Canadians say that, um, that, uh, floor crossing should not be, uh, allowed
00:37:56.100
again, uh, in 38% or yeah, 42% say it should be allowed 38% say no.
00:38:02.900
But when you go to, uh, conservatives, conservatives right now say 63% say no, it shouldn't be allowed.
00:38:11.820
And it's 20% roughly in, in the, uh, in the other camp for each of them.
00:38:17.400
If you change government and people were crossing the floor for the, to the conservatives, they
00:38:29.200
Here's the guy that was rumored to be looking to cross the floor to the, um, to the liberals
00:38:38.760
And, and then quickly put out a weird statement saying he wasn't crossing the floor and please
00:38:49.540
And then said he had to go spend more time with his family.
00:38:52.040
He was, uh, moving to Victoria, which is where he lives now.
00:38:57.060
He doesn't even live in Edmonton, hasn't spent much time there.
00:39:00.240
Uh, and then according to a good rundown timeline by the Toronto star, the, the conservatives
00:39:09.160
were working with him to select the candidate for the upcoming by-election a week or so before
00:39:15.680
What do you make of his personal decision, Chris, to say, okay, I know I said all these
00:39:27.020
I mean, I, I, I, I don't understand that how someone does what you just described and
00:39:36.360
then looks themselves in the mirror every morning.
00:39:38.960
But then I'd say I've said that about a lot of politicians over the years and not just
00:39:46.260
Um, it's, you know, there's a fair amount of money in politics, not, uh, not just at the
00:39:57.980
time you're sitting as an MP, but afterwards, you know, it looks good on a resume.
00:40:05.860
It seems like for most of these, for most of these people.
00:40:11.700
And I, as Lawrence says, I, I don't, I don't see how he wins, uh, Edmonton
00:40:17.520
Riverbend, uh, even if Carney, uh, continues sort of.
00:40:22.700
Does, does he have a reputation left in Edmonton, Lauren?
00:40:26.520
No, but to be quite frank, he didn't have much of a reputation to start with.
00:40:36.000
He's not even the best known backbencher in the city.
00:40:39.180
Uh, our own, uh, MP, a guy named Kelly McCauley is much better known.
00:40:48.500
Um, but Matt Jenner, you know, when they, when they said Matt Jenner was resigning rather
00:40:55.520
than crossing the floor, I had to scratch my head to remember what writing he represented
00:41:01.220
because he, he just doesn't make much of an impression.
00:41:03.660
Kind of Chesterton's old adage about journalism.
00:41:06.760
Journalism is informing the public that Lord Jones died when they didn't know that Lawrence
00:41:17.500
Um, but what does it mean for Polyev's leadership?
00:41:24.480
He just passed his leadership review with 87% of the vote.
00:41:30.660
I went to go see, was there a movement to try and unseat him?
00:41:39.240
The worst you would hear is, well, who else is there?
00:41:42.800
That was kind of the gist and a lot of strong vocal support for him, by the way, that was
00:41:50.140
But with a third floor crossing in the potential for a carny majority, is this bad for Polyev
00:41:58.820
Does someone ambitious waiting in the wings now say, aha, the leader's weak.
00:42:06.480
That's what Polyev and the people around him did with Aaron O'Toole.
00:42:09.740
Yeah, that's the most ambitious person to try and get rid of Polyev was having his own
00:42:20.440
And I know Doug Ford says he doesn't want the job.
00:42:29.760
He's cozied up to to Carney on at least a couple of occasions.
00:42:34.140
Apparently, he was giving advice to Carney about when to hold an election.
00:42:37.060
And the only reason that would work for Ford, it's not because he wants Carney to do well.
00:42:47.240
Even with this latest floor crossing, he still has strong support within the party.
00:42:53.300
But if he loses another election, a lot of that goes away.
00:42:58.040
And he doesn't have strong support beyond the members of the party.
00:43:01.980
So he hasn't got a lot of growth potential in an election because he just doesn't appeal
00:43:14.580
I don't think it's a real threat to his leadership, but it is a threat to him winning the next election.
00:43:22.600
I'll give you a quick list on why I don't think Doug Ford is going to be the next conservative
00:43:27.740
And then I'll let Chris weigh in with his view.
00:43:34.920
How does he become conservative leader and then say, you got to elect me.
00:43:42.440
He doesn't like leaving Etobicoke, the suburban part of Toronto that he lives in.
00:43:46.740
So can you imagine him spending all of his time in Ottawa?
00:43:50.900
Uh, I, and these are not issues that he actually likes or cares about.
00:43:55.100
So I know that some part of him wants to be prime minister.
00:43:58.900
If you have people in your ear telling you, yeah, you'd be great at it.
00:44:03.840
But in terms of practicality, I think it's a non-starter.
00:44:08.620
And, and two, I, he'd do well in some parts and horribly in others.
00:44:13.080
It, and, and I think part of where he'd do horribly would be Alberta where I hear nothing
00:44:22.280
He, he is almost as unpopular here as Justin Trudeau.
00:44:26.580
Chris, your thoughts on Doug Ford, uh, being the guy that wants to replace, uh, Polyev?
00:44:32.660
No, I, I mean, oh, so, I mean, he may well want to, um, you know, he, he's been doubted
00:44:40.260
at, uh, every stage and is now premier of Ontario.
00:44:46.740
And to my eye can be premier of Ontario for life at this point, uh, as it stands.
00:44:53.880
I mean, he's never faced, he's never faced a liberal leader in the legislature.
00:45:05.460
So the liberals, the NEP are never going to win.
00:45:09.040
So, so that people get what Chris is saying here though.
00:45:11.540
Let's explain Kathleen Wynne resigned as leader.
00:45:15.400
They haven't had a leader with a seat since then in 2018.
00:45:23.840
And, and by the way, the NDP is the official opposition, but you wouldn't know it.
00:45:27.400
And you wouldn't know who the leader of that party is.
00:45:30.560
So I, I, like what he really wants to be as mayor of Toronto, but you know, being premier
00:45:36.940
of Ontario, you can pretty much be mayor of Toronto if you want to be, because you could
00:45:43.300
To me, the, the bigger threat to Polyev's leadership than these floor crossings, which
00:45:48.740
like I, like within the party, I could see some people thinking, oh, he's losing control
00:45:57.280
Although his leadership review would suggest not, but in the broader electorate, I don't
00:46:05.000
To me, the, the biggest problem for Polyev is the NDP absolutely.
00:46:12.140
I mean, this leadership race is like, I'm not sure they'll win a seat.
00:46:18.000
I mean, Alexandra Boulary is, is, is defecting supposedly to Quebec Solidarity and he's going
00:46:24.740
into provincial politics because he doesn't think, and that's their last MP in Quebec.
00:46:32.800
I mean, it's just like, to me, and, and that was kind of the story of the last election,
00:46:40.520
Was that the conservatives did so much better than any party for many years in terms of
00:46:46.920
the popular vote, but the liberals did a little bit better because the NDP collapsed.
00:46:56.280
Um, I mean, not, not just to Polyev, but to the, the conservatives.
00:47:00.500
Harper doesn't win, uh, 10, 15 years ago, uh, without a strong NDP presence because they
00:47:09.820
take away just enough liberal votes that the conservatives can sneak in.
00:47:13.200
As long as the liberals are unopposed on the left, they get to be the government for as long
00:47:19.800
Well, I think the conservatives have to come up with a way to, to fix that.
00:47:24.360
And, and I'm not sure what that is, but that may be the new normal, especially if someone
00:47:34.940
I mean, he was out there the other day in their leadership debate talking about the need
00:47:40.400
for government run grocery stores, government run cell phone companies, government run internet
00:47:45.620
providers, and a government owned and run bank through Canada post.
00:47:51.540
They can't deliver your mail properly, but sure.
00:47:57.960
That makes him more reasonable than Heather McPherson, who is the other major candidate who
00:48:04.460
is totally obsessed, completely obsessed with Palestine, Hamas, and the destruction of Israel.
00:48:16.140
I'm not sure Avi Lewis is much better on that front.
00:48:18.740
No, I think, I think, I mean, sometimes I see Avi Lewis make an announcement that doesn't
00:48:24.580
involve Israel or, or Gaza and think, well, what does this have to do with Israel and
00:48:29.200
Like, yeah, it seems like the NDP wants to run for the, um, the, the parliament that Donald
00:48:37.120
Trump's going to set up with his board of peace and the reformed Gaza.
00:48:42.280
I mean, those are always different than, than general elections, but you still say what
00:48:46.500
you say and it's on the record, uh, and, and it's going to be used against you.
00:48:51.700
Where's the economic approach from the NDP who used to be the assembly line workers, uh,
00:48:59.320
party, uh, and then they became the faculty club party.
00:49:03.520
Uh, they lost an awful lot of the, an awful lot of their private sector union support,
00:49:10.020
but at least they had teachers and professors and civil servants of whom there is a large
00:49:16.240
growing number in this because they can't even win that group anymore.
00:49:20.400
So assuming that the NDP does not resurrect with their next leader, and I, I'm expecting
00:49:27.340
Audrey McDonough type energy from the next NDP leader, Alexa, Alexa McDonough.
00:49:34.260
Combining Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough combined two people, both, both of them were
00:49:41.120
So assuming it's that level of excitement among the electorate, what do the conservatives do
00:49:47.360
to still have a chance at winning with a very weak NDP?
00:49:58.680
I don't have anything against Pierre Polyev, but I, I, I agree with Lauren that I don't see
00:50:04.480
And then in a, if the NDP collapses, I don't see how, I just don't see another path.
00:50:11.540
Well, and I, and I don't see, uh, I don't see how the liberals become so unpopular between
00:50:19.440
now and the end of the year or the middle of next year, whenever elections are held.
00:50:25.320
I don't see how they become so unpopular that they lose.
00:50:28.880
It is their election to, to lose, uh, and they're not going to, I mean, certainly central
00:50:39.140
Certainly our colleagues at the globe and the CBC and the star all think he's dreamy.
00:50:46.020
Um, and, and they're, they buy into his, his shtick against Trump.
00:50:52.600
Um, and so, so do a lot of people in your cohort, Lauren, it's a boomer voters love them.
00:51:02.120
Um, so I, I, no, I say, uh, there, I don't see a way new leader, no new leader, uh, how
00:51:12.620
the conservatives beat the liberals in the next election.
00:51:15.820
I, I'm predicting the liberals will go north of 200 seats, maybe close to 220.
00:51:30.100
Well, I hope it's a Paul Martin type juggernaut and maybe the higher David Hurley, who believes
00:51:35.120
Jamil Giovanni is too ugly for politics to, uh, uh, to try and run all of this, but we shall
00:51:44.540
And, uh, I'm sure we'll talk again in the coming weeks or months.
00:51:47.620
Once, uh, Mark Carney has secured his majority, whether it's by floor crossings, by elections
00:52:00.600
This episode was produced by Andre Proulx, theme music by Bryce Hall.
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