After a five-month break, the House of Commons is back in session, and the new Speaker, Mark Carney, has been sworn in. He delivers the Throne Speech in question period, and is sworn in as the Speaker.
00:26:03.380You've said you want to build, baby build.
00:26:05.480And actually, in a minority government, you don't have a lot of time to do it.
00:26:08.360Like, we're talking about the fast-tracked approval being two years as opposed to five.
00:26:13.340So that doesn't leave a lot of room to show results to premiers and to Canadians.
00:26:17.860So I expect they'll come out of this meeting with something big.
00:26:21.420And I think we are – I would encourage people to check out a piece by Stephanie Taylor just sort of showing the lists from all the provinces.
00:26:30.900She did actually literally call around the country to every province and say, what's your list of projects that you want Carney to approve?
00:26:37.900And there were some good ones with some good projects.
00:26:40.900Alberta's, though, I think shows you the challenge that Carney has to deal with, which is that they want Northern Gateway,
00:26:45.800which is a pipeline that would be difficult, I think, to approve but isn't a crazy idea.
00:26:52.100And then the other were things that were just not what Carney was looking for.
00:27:24.340A Canadian Taxpayers Federation came out with a piece showing we got 38% more federal employees than we did eight years ago under Justin Trudeau.
00:28:50.060I mean, both of them are going through the roof.
00:28:52.780The – as you said, the spending compared to the main estimates last year is up 7.75% to $487 billion.
00:29:00.080There were no signs of the restraint which Carney had talked about.
00:29:06.500He talked about the operational side of this budget rising at 2% a year instead of 9% a year and being balanced within three years.
00:29:16.280On the evidence of these estimates, that is going to be very hard to do.
00:29:19.680So unless we see a major course correction in the budget, which I think we're going to have to, I mean, there's going to have to be some sign in the budget that this government is starting to cut operational spending if it's going to hit the targets that it said it was going to hit.
00:29:37.920Okay, I want to play another clip for you of Mark Carney talking about this in his speech and reply to the speech from the throne.
00:29:47.340It's a weird convoluted thing, but here he is talking about the old – the past government spent too much.
00:30:54.880You know, I counted up the departments.
00:30:58.100There were something like 63 departments that will see their budgets rise beyond the rate of inflation and only 14 will have their budgets cut.
00:31:05.280You know, the National Capital Commission, for example, will see its allocated spending rising to 179 million this year from 94.7 in the main estimates last year.
00:31:15.540So it's not clear how much of that, of any of this is capital spending or operational spending because that's not easily broken out.
00:31:24.840But they've sent the message out that this is business as usual.
00:31:30.240The bureaucracy has basically filled its boots and increased operational budgets in every single department, more or less.
00:31:39.000That seems to me to be very odd for a government that has said it's going to do things differently.
00:31:45.820Stuart, will they be able to turn this around by September?
00:31:56.220You should talk to people who were involved in the Harper spending review, which I think was generally seen as successful.
00:32:02.020Like it was a pretty well-run program.
00:32:04.120It was tough for the bureaucracy to find those cuts.
00:32:06.940But there is a political element to it because, you know, you're going to have the unions coming after you and, you know, you're going to have voters distressed by it a little bit.
00:32:16.800Everyone in the Conservative Party in this election was talking about Tim Hudak, the Ontario PC leader who announced those big cuts and took a real political hit for it.
00:32:27.760Well, Hudak said he'd lay off 100,000 people.
00:32:30.260And then before the election even started.
00:32:33.240And conservatives nowadays will use that as a lesson for why they don't want to do 3% cuts.
00:32:38.120Like maybe they're over learning the lesson, but maybe that's also when you have a leader who's in trouble and is Carlton riding.
00:32:48.200And I don't think we should underestimate how hard that is, because as you can see from what's happening right now and from what happened in the Trudeau years, the bureaucracy on autopilot will grow.
00:32:58.020And that's its natural state and restraint, even just neutral growth is hard and cutting it is even harder.
00:33:06.580So that will be a multi-year challenge for Carney.
00:33:08.940Well, as I was writing on Friday about the spending and the growth and the bureaucracy, as I'm sitting there typing away, on my TV comes Elon Musk in his final press conference as a special government employee from the Oval Office with Donald Trump.
00:33:27.780And I thought, well, he's got a Canadian passport.
00:33:31.360We could ask him to come to the Canadian Department of Government Efficiency.
00:33:34.900And a lot of Canadians might laugh at the idea of a Canadian doge.
00:33:38.300But whether it was Stephen Harper's spending review or Paul Martin's spending review, we have done this sort of thing before.
00:33:44.880And it's important to do because otherwise you end up with parts of the government operating that people don't realize things are still going on.
00:33:55.680And maybe the program that you established 20 years ago, you don't really need it anymore.
00:35:17.780There are political stakeholders here who will always have a say and they are going to cause controversies.
00:35:24.520So, if you are looking at the cuts that happen in Canada, the Harper ones and the Martin ones, the situation had to come to a crisis point for those to happen.
00:35:35.260For Martin, it was the budgetary crisis.
00:35:37.580And for Harper, they were in the wake of the financial crisis in 08-09.
00:35:41.880So, they had a lot of deficit spending.
00:36:08.060I think right now, given the political and economic situation, going along with the Americans on defense issues is probably a smart political move and just the right thing to do at the moment.
00:36:22.420It might be controversial with some Canadians, but probably the right thing to do.
00:36:25.660Well, I think, you know, I've been writing about ballistic missile defense going back until since God was a boy.
00:36:45.120And I think it's pretty early days with this thing.
00:36:47.260Because I have no objection to Canada being involved.
00:36:53.760I think defending the North is absolutely what we should be doing.
00:36:58.020But this thing does not look like it works.
00:36:59.960It looks like it's never going to work.
00:37:02.580I mean, I don't know if anybody's read the sort of technical specs, but, you know, the chances of knocking hypersonic missiles out of midair are apparently non-existent.
00:37:13.560So I think we've got to be careful about throwing money after bad if this system is just not going to work.
00:37:19.780Well, when Israel developed the Iron Dome, and that's a much smaller geographic area, what is it, the size of New Jersey, and we're looking at the vastness of North America, people thought that wouldn't work.
00:38:14.080But the price tag of, like, the ultimate price tag in the hundreds of billions of dollars and the likelihood of success, which I'm not an expert in this, but I've read experts who seem to have a low opinion of that likelihood.
00:38:27.780And then the likelihood of this becoming a sort of militarization of space, because that's the only way to get these hypersonic missiles, is, I think, a little concerning for everyone.
00:38:38.280And I think the only thing that maybe gives you a little bit of solace is that it has all the earmarks of a Trump fantasy that, you know, in three years from now, it won't be anything anyways.
00:38:50.500There is talk still, including from the new prime minister, about reviewing the F-35 contract.
00:38:56.440As we join this, re-arm Europe, I would not be against us buying, what is it, the Saab jets from Sweden.
00:39:10.480But canceling any part of the F-35 contract, I think, is a foolish move, both for the politics of it.
00:39:18.520I think we would face economic punishment, but also because our military, our Air Force needs these jets, and they need them sooner rather than later.
00:41:00.320And given the price tag rise, the idea that we would buy the French Dassault Rafale or the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Saab Gripen seems to be in line with what Carney's talking about when he's talking about diversifying away from U.S. suppliers.
00:41:23.960Because Saab would build the jet in Canada using IMP Aerospace of Halifax.
00:41:30.960This is not Carney's fault because he was nowhere near Canada at the time.
00:41:37.060But the fact that Trudeau cancelled the existing F-35 contract cost us tons of jobs.
00:41:44.660And you hear the Prime Minister now say, we're sending 8 out of 10 capital dollars from the military to the U.S.
00:41:52.440Because the way that the Harper government structured it, our companies couldn't just bid on supplying parts for the jets we were buying.
00:42:02.000We could bid for the entire supply chain.
00:42:23.880You stay in the program, but you maybe don't order 88 of them.
00:42:27.580You have a mixed fleet of, I mean, one suggestion was that you could order 45 F-35s and 120 grippens for the same price that we're paying now.
00:42:37.600Yeah, well, I get an allergic reaction when I hear about canceling contracts like this because it just is, it can be so frustrating to get these things moving again.
00:42:46.660And I'll tell you, when I was at the hub, we did this exercise where we took the money that you would have to spend to get up to 2% of GDP on defense, which is, you know, a lot of billions of dollars.
00:42:59.120And we went to defense experts and people in the military, and we said, hey, like, it's Christmas Day, we're giving you this money, what would you spend it on, ideally?
00:43:08.960And we were expecting a really fun piece out of that.
00:43:11.440But their brains were so not in the mode of just offering up things to buy.
00:43:17.560It was like, well, you would have to reprofile this, and the budgetary stuff on this would have to be X, and we'd have to do that.
00:43:23.080And we were hoping they would just say tanks or fighter jets or something like that.
00:43:27.940But it just shows you how tough it is to actually get these people to buy something.
00:43:32.680And when the politics gets involved, it makes it even worse.
00:43:35.980So, yeah, the cancellation, I think, would be a nightmare.
00:43:40.060Let's talk about a couple of cleanup things at the end here.
00:43:43.820We have a new speaker, Francis Carpelagia, Liberal MP from Montreal, defeated a fellow Quebec Liberal, Greg Fergus from Gatineau.
00:43:53.080So, despite knowing both of them for a long time, I'm actually quite happy about this, because I thought Fergus was a disaster as a speaker.
00:44:02.520Very nice man, or I knew him as a very nice man before politics.
00:44:22.180It is like the referee in a soccer game or a football game.
00:44:26.940The less you think about him and the less you see him, the better.
00:44:31.100And I think that's actually what everybody wants.
00:44:33.400I think that even, you know, conservatives, liberals were all a little bit tired of Fergus and just the kind of tomfoolery that was going on in the house.
00:44:43.000Like, it was getting on everyone's nerves and they were all blaming each other.
00:44:46.700And I think taking a little bit of the steam out of that would be good for everyone.
00:44:50.960Yeah, I agree entirely with that, with what Stuart said.
00:44:53.060I don't know him well, but I've known him around Parliament for 20 plus years, I guess.
00:45:00.640I liked his allusions to ancient Greece and how we were Athens and the U.S.'s Rome.
00:45:10.460I don't know whether that was meant to allude to the decline of Rome.
00:45:14.520But yeah, I think he's probably got the right stuff.
00:46:55.880I don't think that pure Polyev is in any immediate trouble.
00:46:58.720But there's a lot of stories going around Conservative circles about how mean the central authority is.
00:47:07.020But, you know, whether it's Polyev, whether it's Jenny Byrne, campaign manager, whether it's other people around them.
00:47:13.920I think they've just rubbed a lot of people the wrong way.
00:47:16.540And that's because they were winning by so much for so long.
00:47:19.540And it's easy to do that when you're in the lead.
00:47:22.660But I think people are sort of thinking about this, like, why are we going to put up with three more years of however long this minority government lasts of being shunted aside?
00:47:32.940And Don Tremont told the National Post on, I think it was the Friday, on the record that, yeah, I'll be in the Speaker race.
00:47:40.860And then he was sort of mysteriously taken off on Sunday when they were having their caucus meetings.
00:47:44.700So it's pretty obvious what happened there.
00:47:47.560And I, as I said, I don't think there's any immediate threat here.
00:48:01.520The Governor General's office tweeting and then deleting a post that said, a photo of the GG meeting with the king and said something about great of our two nations working together or bringing the two nations together.
00:48:15.740Shouldn't the Governor General's office know, even if it's a lowly comms person at the junior level, shouldn't they know that he's the king of Canada and this is not about bringing Britain and Canada together?
00:48:29.400Yeah, it's the one thing you should know in that office.
00:48:33.680Like, it's not like you're in the industry department and you have a whole bunch of files you have to know.
00:48:39.040But I think this is, we were chatting about that in the office and we were trying to imagine the Mark Carney GG pick, which will be upcoming.
00:48:48.340And I bet you can expect the most boring GG of all time because that was, that's the opposite of what Trudeau did.
00:48:56.620Trudeau tried to make a PR splash with his picks and sometimes you pay a price for that.
00:49:02.140I actually think the Julie Payette pick started with someone sitting around the table sounding like Beavis and Butthead saying, boss, you know, it'd be cool.
00:49:10.500And, you know, because they didn't vet anything.
00:49:13.480John, your quick thoughts on the GG's office not knowing.
00:49:16.700Yeah, well, that is a kind of blooper, I suppose.
00:49:22.160Yeah, I hadn't even thought about a new GG.
00:49:25.100I mean, when does the current GG's office end?
00:50:10.040It took the media 45 minutes to Google that she had been involved in an accident that killed a blind woman and then, you know, domestics and all kinds of stuff.
00:50:19.120Within an hour, all of this was out about Julie Payette.
00:50:22.120I do not think that will happen with a Mark Carney pick.