It was supposed to be a close election. At one point, it looked like the United Conservative Party was on track to win a majority government in Alberta. But then, something happened that changed the landscape of politics in the province.
00:02:08.900At one point, just 2,600 votes switching parties in the city of Calgary could have changed the outcome of the election.
00:02:17.540But overall, the UCP ended up winning handily.
00:02:21.420They've got a reduced majority government, but a majority government nonetheless.
00:02:25.200And while the NDP got the highest percentage of the popular vote they've ever received, they fell short of forming government taking just 38 seats.
00:02:37.760And before we get to our next guest to dissect everything Alberta, I want to remind you that you can subscribe to the Full Comment Podcast on whatever device or app you're listening to us on right now.
00:02:48.260Whether it's Spotify, Apple, Google, Amazon, what have you.
00:03:59.640Was there, you know, one specific TSN turning point in all of this where things suddenly went from looking grim for the United Conservative Party to Danielle Smith getting back in?
00:04:12.620Well, I think there were two key points.
00:04:14.360One was the budget, Budget 2023, which was definitely a spending budget and a budget that was designed to appeal to really a lot of urban voters who had concerns about things like health care and affordability.
00:04:29.180And those policies that came down and chewed up a lot of the surplus that Alberta accumulated have gone over well.
00:04:38.080They have provided the funding for things like that have led to a reduction in the surgery wait times, emergency response times, money for infrastructure in Calgary and Edmonton, and also things like, frankly, even the new arena deal that the government says will be a top priority when it actually forms a cabinet and starts making decisions.
00:05:05.080So that was a big and important step forward for Danielle Smith.
00:05:10.480It helped change the discussion about, you know, whether or not she was going to invoke the Sovereignty Act and cause all this disquiet and drive away investment, etc.
00:05:23.800And the other really big one during the election campaign was her debate performance, which was terrific.
00:05:30.640She did a great job on that and I think really went a long way to putting to rest the concerns that she would be radical and not represent the views of mainstream Alberta.
00:05:45.160She came across as polished, professional, and very much somebody who understood the values of Albertans.
00:05:53.800I didn't catch her TV appearance just ahead of the election month.
00:06:00.840But someone told me that you went on just before, and I don't know which network you were on, and you were talking about Danielle Smith.
00:06:07.780And they said, I'm not sure he could have used the word moderate more times than he did, trying to reassure voters that Danielle Smith was moderate.
00:06:16.880Was that something that the UCP needed to get across?
00:06:22.340Why did they have to convince voters that, you know, she wasn't scary?
00:06:25.300Well, she said a lot of things in the run-up to the campaign, pardon me, in the run-up to her leadership bid against people like Travis Taves and others that were things that were really out there, I'll be honest.
00:06:46.520Some of those things were said in the context of her time as a radio talk show host, as somebody who's, you know, a full-on libertarian policy wonk who likes to muse about ideas like private health care and this kind of thing.
00:07:03.360And a lot of those things came back to haunt her.
00:07:05.660They were used against her, you know, by the NDP very effectively.
00:07:10.900The media used them, but the NDP used them very effectively to start to give the impression that she had a hidden agenda, that if she was allowed to be premier, she would bring in these policies that were just antithetical to the values of the people of Alberta.
00:07:29.720Well, it turned out, of course, that that was a lot of hype.
00:07:33.200That was a caricature that her opponents were building and she needed a good debate performance to emphasize to people that she shared their views.
00:07:47.940She did an outstanding job during the debate.
00:07:50.460She was very much somebody who, in the minds of a lot of people, not only was moderate, but was likable and was somebody, I think, that they felt they could relate to.
00:08:04.080In fact, I just saw a research presentation this morning by a pollster.
00:08:08.620I won't reveal his name because it was a private poll, but really indicating that her performance during the campaign, especially during that debate, was just key to winning over Albertans, especially Calgarians, who had a lot of questions about, you know, who is the real Danielle Smith?
00:08:27.140There's a world of difference between being a pundit, as I am full time, as you are sometimes, and running for office.
00:08:36.140And, you know, as a former MP and cabinet minister, there's things you might say in a conversation where you're exploring ideas that, okay, well, now it's time to govern, to make decisions.
00:08:46.880And you might have said something that, well, it's not going to fly at the cabinet table, it's not going to fly with the public, so that will never be policy, even if you mused favorably about it before.
00:08:58.920I mean, if anyone who's been around politics understands that, but it's easy for people that aren't necessarily sophisticated about politics to believe that if somebody said something went three years ago, those are the beliefs they hold, and that's their agenda.
00:09:18.660And I also think there's a little bit of burnout with all these examples of people getting caught up in something they said on social media, and then extrapolating forward, saying this is their agenda.
00:09:35.320I think the public's heard that so often that they have a little trouble believing it.
00:09:39.800I think the public sees beyond that now, and they saw her record up to that point.
00:09:47.280If the UCP had to find a way, Monty, to show that Danielle Smith was moderate, mainstream, shared your values, did the NDP have to do that with Rachel Notley as well?
00:10:00.340Because my sense during the campaign is you had people voting for both leaders, and you had people voting against both leaders, that they were polarizing.
00:10:11.500And so, you know, Notley, you know, her record isn't from being a radio talk show host.
00:10:16.900It's from being premier during a time where she alienated a lot of people.
00:10:20.920So did they have to rebrand her as well?
00:10:37.820It was the first time she had ever appeared on BNN, and she was there trying to give reassurance to the oil and gas sector that she could be trusted to not ruin the industry, is essentially what was happening.
00:10:51.240I said to an NDP colleague at the time that it was pretty obvious what they were up to.
00:10:57.600And it was something that continued on through the campaign.
00:11:00.640And Rachel Notley was very quick to dismiss Justin Trudeau's plan for an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector because it effectively amounted to a reduction in production, and it would make it very hard for Canadian oil and gas producers to compete.
00:11:20.880But it was Notley who came out very quickly to say, that's not on.
00:11:25.040So it was a very different Rachel Notley in 2023 than we saw in 2015 to 2019, when she was way too cozy with Justin Trudeau.
00:11:35.680And this time, she went out of her way to downplay any of those relationships and to try and indicate that she was pro-oil and gas.
00:11:45.260Didn't she go as far as to disagree with Jagmeet Singh and distance herself from the federal NDP leader?
00:11:55.040Yeah, that is, you know, Jagmeet Singh and the federal NDP are definitely an anchor around the neck of the provincial NDP on so many issues.
00:12:04.500You know, they're the ones that keep the Justin Trudeau liberals in power, etc.
00:12:08.460And it was a point of criticism from UCP supporters and the party itself that Rachel Notley still was tied to the federal NDP, whether or not she even wanted to be in some cases, because the moment you become a member of the provincial party, you're a member of the federal party, etc.
00:12:27.640So there's all these all these connections.
00:12:29.800But she did everything in her power to try and put distance between her and Jagmeet and to some degree was successful.
00:12:38.280I mean, you look at the support that she picked up in parts of Calgary amongst disaffected conservatives who had concerns about, you know, where Danielle would take the party.
00:12:50.440And honestly, the NDP did quite a good job on on on on bringing that vote home on Election Day.
00:12:58.140As you pointed out at the beginning of the interview, I mean, it was a couple of thousand votes made all the difference between electing a UCP government and electing an NDP government.
00:13:08.680You know, Monty, you mentioned Calgary, you look at some of the races, Calgary bow, the UCP won that 12,940 votes to the NDP's 12,555.
00:13:20.800But then there's some that are even closer, Calgary Glenmore.
00:13:23.480It's a 30 vote difference for the NDP winning that riding.
00:13:28.960There are others that obviously are going into recounts as well.
00:13:33.360Is that a is that a knock against the UCP and Danielle Smith that the NDP was so successful in Calgary?
00:13:45.320It is certainly a backhanded criticism of the of the UCP in a sense.
00:13:53.480You know, those ridings are reliably conservative, typically.
00:13:57.240And when you look at how well the federal conservative party does in Calgary and throughout Alberta, I mean, it's night and day.
00:14:06.280Federally, you know, the conservatives poll well over 60 percent in the provincial election was 53 percent.
00:14:12.780But in a lot of that vote was concentrated in rural areas.
00:14:16.660When you look at Calgary, you know, the vote just wasn't strong enough, given the disappearance of the third parties in Alberta, like the provincial liberals and the Alberta party, which barely showed up at all.
00:14:29.540So a lot of that vote and those sort of disaffected red Tories, you know, their combined vote came was enough in some cases to knock off people like Whitney Isaac and Calgary Glenmore by a mere 30 votes.
00:14:46.120But remember, that's also a riding where in the past in 2015, the NDP won by I think it was seven or eight votes.
00:14:53.880So, you know, ridings like that are vulnerable when all the conditions are right.
00:14:59.200And in this particular case, all the conditions were there.
00:15:04.260Alberta has gone to a de facto two party system right now.
00:15:09.220We'll see if it stays that way because things have been fluid.
00:15:11.680I remember being out there in 2012 covering the election.
00:15:17.120That was the one that a lot of people thought Daniel Smith would win and become premier as leader of the Wild Rose back then.
00:15:23.680But the the NDP was, I think, the fourth place party at that point, the Alberta Liberal Party had prior to that election had more seats than the NDP.
00:16:05.660You know, going back a little bit of a sort of political history lesson, the Alberta Liberals actually became a real force in the 93 election under Lawrence DeCore's leadership.
00:16:15.820And DeCore made them popular by almost running to the right of the Ralph Klein conservatives.
00:16:24.880And DeCore came very close to winning winning that election.
00:17:13.360You have a number of things happening all at once.
00:17:16.460You know, we had Danielle Smith coming in in a weakened position because of her past comments and just concerns about where she would take the party.
00:17:26.080As I said, conservative in Alberta is synonymous.
00:17:30.640And the brand is just something that just keeps going on.
00:17:35.660The NDP brand has been very difficult for the party to overcome, especially on the economy.
00:17:44.620Social Democrats just don't do well, typically because of economic issues.
00:17:48.780But because Rachel Notley was able to move to the center so dramatically over the protests of some in her party, they had a shot this time.
00:18:01.400They've also professionalized their party.
00:18:04.040They were very good at fundraising going into the election campaign, criticizing both Jason Kenney and then Danielle Smith.
00:18:12.260They raised a lot of organizers from all over and really got good at identifying votes and determining, you know, what kind of policies they needed to appeal to people in the center in Alberta.
00:18:28.060And to some degree, lessened the stigma that goes with voting for the NDP.
00:18:35.520Meanwhile, the United Conservative Party started in that hole that Danielle Smith partially created for herself, but partially were things that were taken away out of context from many years ago.
00:18:48.760And so it took some real good politicking through the campaign, especially the debate performance to turn that around.
00:18:57.100But that's that really gives you a sense of the sort of the political dynamics.
00:19:01.540And going forward, Brian, I think it's going to be a bit of a riding by riding fight from here on in, you know, on things like things like education, things like safe streets, safe transit systems, all of that kind of thing.
00:19:17.980Because let's face it, the future will be fought in the cities where the population is growing more quickly, where there'll be more seats added in the future.
00:19:26.820And if the UCP doesn't learn to speak urban issues to voters, they're going to have a difficult time in the years ahead.
00:19:36.120I mean, Calgary had traditionally been very solid ground for anybody running on a vaguely conservative banner.
00:19:43.840Edmonton, not quite as friendly to conservatives.
00:20:25.080I think that to some degree, the UCP has suffered from some overheated rhetoric at times of the past.
00:20:33.300I mean, I think overheated rhetoric often works when it comes to Ottawa.
00:20:36.700But, you know, sort of talking in sort of an angry way about some of the other issues, I think, is a bit of a turnoff to voters.
00:20:46.620And I think we need to really assess whether or not we can find a better way to make our points without some of that harsh tone that I think to some degree drives away certain groups, especially women, especially in the suburbs, where so many of these battles are being fought.
00:21:09.280So these are things I that I, you know, I certainly can't say for sure, but it's my hunch that that is some of the challenge.
00:21:17.000That's something that Doug Ford managed to do.
00:30:16.920What I do know is that the Premier needs to pick her battles.
00:30:21.160So on election night, she was very vocal about fighting for Alberta on some of the restrictions the federal government wants to place on the industry.
00:30:31.840But on the other hand, we know that in the back rooms, they will have to come to some kind of an arrangement,
00:30:37.200or it will be difficult for the oil and gas sector to survive.
00:30:40.520Where do you think she goes on issues that have been floating around forever,
00:30:46.160such as Alberta getting its own pension plan,
00:30:50.900or dropping the RCMP policing contract in favor of local policing?
00:30:57.620It's funny to hear my colleagues here in eastern Canada act as if this is somehow revolutionary.
00:31:05.160We have our own provincial police force in Ontario, for people that haven't noticed.
00:31:09.060Quebec has their own provincial police force and their own pension plan that's not part of the CPP.
00:31:16.580But every time these issues that were in the infamous firewall letter are raised,
00:31:22.320people act as if it's a separatist movement.
00:31:25.220I don't think so, but does she act on those?
00:31:28.160Are people looking for that, or are they looking for her to take care of the economy,
00:31:32.980fund the schools, fund the hospitals, have the roads paved?
00:31:36.180Yeah, it's a great question, and it's not entirely clear what the answer is.
00:31:42.480You know, one of the considerations, I think, is to sit down with caucus after,
00:31:47.900you know, we've lost a number of seats, and identify from caucus, what are your priorities?
00:31:53.840You know, we've made some commitments around things like an Alberta police force
00:31:59.240and an Alberta pension plan, and we said we would listen to people and talk to them
00:32:03.320and potentially put these things to a referendum.
00:32:06.620But I think the first step is to determine what the sequence should be
00:32:12.840and whether or not some of those other things even move forward,
00:32:15.740whether there's an appetite, not just in rural Alberta,
00:32:19.700but, you know, right across the entire province.
00:32:23.240Your point, though, is a good one, you know, about things like an Alberta provincial police force.
00:32:32.380You know, many of our city police forces in Alberta are not the RCMP.
00:32:40.060They have their own police forces, and others are switching to city police forces right now.
00:32:45.560So, there's no question there's been problems with the RCMP.
00:38:19.380But, you know, to her credit, the premier said, no, we're governing for the province, not just for take-back Alberta.
00:38:25.160And she's brought it into effect of policies that are, I think, quite sensible.
00:38:31.400So the challenge, in my mind, will mostly be with urban Alberta.
00:38:38.120And I don't think she should pay a whole heck of a lot of attention to some of the more out-there voices on either side of the spectrum.
00:38:46.940If she governs toward the middle and fights for Alberta in Ottawa, I think she'll be in a good position.
00:38:53.440But you don't seem to have any fears that the Wild Rose PC factions would break apart.
00:39:03.500Well, they may well try, but, you know, a lot of the people that would be the proponents of breaking apart are going to be sitting in Danielle Smith's cabinet.
00:39:12.820And, you know, I think about Brian Jean, Todd Lohan, people like that.
00:39:17.880They'll be sitting in that cabinet, and they are the ones that are going to drive the agenda in Alberta.
00:39:22.300And, you know, I think everybody gets paid attention to at various times, and they get things that will matter to them.
00:39:29.980You know, and that's the way the government should govern.
00:39:32.140They should be mindful that there are different factions.
00:39:35.200And if she is going to be the premier for everyone, which was her election night commitment, then she has to make sure that their issues get addressed over the next four years.
00:39:47.580And if she's wise, she'll do just that.