Full Comment - Danielle Smith could govern Alberta for a ‘very, very long time’

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00:01:58.720 Alberta's election.

00:02:05.400 It was supposed to be a close call.

00:02:07.660 In some ways it was.

00:02:08.900 At one point, just 2,600 votes switching parties in the city of Calgary could have changed the outcome of the election.

00:02:17.540 But overall, the UCP ended up winning handily.

00:02:21.420 They've got a reduced majority government, but a majority government nonetheless.

00:02:25.200 And while the NDP got the highest percentage of the popular vote they've ever received, they fell short of forming government taking just 38 seats.

00:02:34.280 Hello, my name is Brian Lilly.

00:02:35.960 This is the Full Comment Podcast.

00:02:37.760 And before we get to our next guest to dissect everything Alberta, I want to remind you that you can subscribe to the Full Comment Podcast on whatever device or app you're listening to us on right now.

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00:02:58.360 Well, the reviews were in on the Danielle Smith government in Alberta.

00:03:04.060 For a long time, it looked like she was headed for sure defeat.

00:03:08.180 She'd never been elected by the people of Alberta, not directly in an election.

00:03:12.220 She was elected by the United Conservative Party to replace Jason Kenney after he was chased out of the party he helped create.

00:03:20.360 It looked like Rachel Notley was going to be the next premier of Alberta for a second term. 0.69

00:03:26.220 What happened?

00:03:27.840 How did things change?

00:03:28.960 How did it all break down?

00:03:30.180 Well, joining me now to discuss that is Monty Solberg.

00:03:33.440 He is a former Conservative Cabinet Minister.

00:03:36.360 He's a consultant in Brooks, Alberta, and he joins us now.

00:03:40.380 Thanks for the time, Monty.

00:03:42.000 My pleasure, Brian.

00:03:43.180 And remind me the name of your firm so that we get this straight.

00:03:47.400 Thank you.

00:03:48.060 It's New West Public Affairs.

00:03:50.080 New West Public Affairs.

00:03:51.140 And you've got friends and family working in the system.

00:03:57.700 You're a close watcher of it.

00:03:59.640 Was there, you know, one specific TSN turning point in all of this where things suddenly went from looking grim for the United Conservative Party to Danielle Smith getting back in?

00:04:12.620 Well, I think there were two key points.

00:04:14.360 One was the budget, Budget 2023, which was definitely a spending budget and a budget that was designed to appeal to really a lot of urban voters who had concerns about things like health care and affordability.

00:04:29.180 And those policies that came down and chewed up a lot of the surplus that Alberta accumulated have gone over well.

00:04:38.080 They have provided the funding for things like that have led to a reduction in the surgery wait times, emergency response times, money for infrastructure in Calgary and Edmonton, and also things like, frankly, even the new arena deal that the government says will be a top priority when it actually forms a cabinet and starts making decisions.

00:05:05.080 So that was a big and important step forward for Danielle Smith.

00:05:10.480 It helped change the discussion about, you know, whether or not she was going to invoke the Sovereignty Act and cause all this disquiet and drive away investment, etc.

00:05:23.800 And the other really big one during the election campaign was her debate performance, which was terrific.

00:05:30.640 She did a great job on that and I think really went a long way to putting to rest the concerns that she would be radical and not represent the views of mainstream Alberta.

00:05:45.160 She came across as polished, professional, and very much somebody who understood the values of Albertans.

00:05:53.800 I didn't catch her TV appearance just ahead of the election month.

00:05:58.000 My apologies for that.

00:05:59.440 I'll do better next time.

00:06:00.840 But someone told me that you went on just before, and I don't know which network you were on, and you were talking about Danielle Smith.

00:06:07.780 And they said, I'm not sure he could have used the word moderate more times than he did, trying to reassure voters that Danielle Smith was moderate.

00:06:16.880 Was that something that the UCP needed to get across?

00:06:21.440 And if so, why?

00:06:22.340 Why did they have to convince voters that, you know, she wasn't scary?

00:06:25.300 Well, she said a lot of things in the run-up to the campaign, pardon me, in the run-up to her leadership bid against people like Travis Taves and others that were things that were really out there, I'll be honest.

00:06:46.520 Some of those things were said in the context of her time as a radio talk show host, as somebody who's, you know, a full-on libertarian policy wonk who likes to muse about ideas like private health care and this kind of thing.

00:07:03.360 And a lot of those things came back to haunt her.

00:07:05.660 They were used against her, you know, by the NDP very effectively.

00:07:10.900 The media used them, but the NDP used them very effectively to start to give the impression that she had a hidden agenda, that if she was allowed to be premier, she would bring in these policies that were just antithetical to the values of the people of Alberta. 0.94

00:07:29.720 Well, it turned out, of course, that that was a lot of hype.

00:07:33.200 That was a caricature that her opponents were building and she needed a good debate performance to emphasize to people that she shared their views. 0.95

00:07:47.940 She did an outstanding job during the debate. 0.99

00:07:50.460 She was very much somebody who, in the minds of a lot of people, not only was moderate, but was likable and was somebody, I think, that they felt they could relate to.

00:08:04.080 In fact, I just saw a research presentation this morning by a pollster.

00:08:08.620 I won't reveal his name because it was a private poll, but really indicating that her performance during the campaign, especially during that debate, was just key to winning over Albertans, especially Calgarians, who had a lot of questions about, you know, who is the real Danielle Smith?

00:08:27.140 There's a world of difference between being a pundit, as I am full time, as you are sometimes, and running for office.

00:08:36.140 And, you know, as a former MP and cabinet minister, there's things you might say in a conversation where you're exploring ideas that, okay, well, now it's time to govern, to make decisions.

00:08:46.880 And you might have said something that, well, it's not going to fly at the cabinet table, it's not going to fly with the public, so that will never be policy, even if you mused favorably about it before.

00:08:58.240 No, that's right.

00:08:58.920 I mean, if anyone who's been around politics understands that, but it's easy for people that aren't necessarily sophisticated about politics to believe that if somebody said something went three years ago, those are the beliefs they hold, and that's their agenda.

00:09:16.880 But it really isn't the case.

00:09:18.660 And I also think there's a little bit of burnout with all these examples of people getting caught up in something they said on social media, and then extrapolating forward, saying this is their agenda.

00:09:35.320 I think the public's heard that so often that they have a little trouble believing it.

00:09:39.800 I think the public sees beyond that now, and they saw her record up to that point.

00:09:47.280 If the UCP had to find a way, Monty, to show that Danielle Smith was moderate, mainstream, shared your values, did the NDP have to do that with Rachel Notley as well?

00:10:00.340 Because my sense during the campaign is you had people voting for both leaders, and you had people voting against both leaders, that they were polarizing.

00:10:11.500 And so, you know, Notley, you know, her record isn't from being a radio talk show host.

00:10:16.900 It's from being premier during a time where she alienated a lot of people.

00:10:20.920 So did they have to rebrand her as well?

00:10:24.440 They tried very hard to rebrand her.

00:10:28.420 Going back to February, I remember one time turning on TV and on BNN, the Business News Network, and who was on there?

00:10:37.020 But Rachel Notley.

00:10:37.820 It was the first time she had ever appeared on BNN, and she was there trying to give reassurance to the oil and gas sector that she could be trusted to not ruin the industry, is essentially what was happening.

00:10:51.240 I said to an NDP colleague at the time that it was pretty obvious what they were up to.

00:10:56.460 He didn't deny it.

00:10:57.600 And it was something that continued on through the campaign.

00:11:00.640 And Rachel Notley was very quick to dismiss Justin Trudeau's plan for an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector because it effectively amounted to a reduction in production, and it would make it very hard for Canadian oil and gas producers to compete.

00:11:20.880 But it was Notley who came out very quickly to say, that's not on.

00:11:25.040 So it was a very different Rachel Notley in 2023 than we saw in 2015 to 2019, when she was way too cozy with Justin Trudeau.

00:11:35.680 And this time, she went out of her way to downplay any of those relationships and to try and indicate that she was pro-oil and gas.

00:11:45.260 Didn't she go as far as to disagree with Jagmeet Singh and distance herself from the federal NDP leader?

00:11:53.220 Oh, yes, she did.

00:11:55.040 Yeah, that is, you know, Jagmeet Singh and the federal NDP are definitely an anchor around the neck of the provincial NDP on so many issues.

00:12:04.500 You know, they're the ones that keep the Justin Trudeau liberals in power, etc.

00:12:08.460 And it was a point of criticism from UCP supporters and the party itself that Rachel Notley still was tied to the federal NDP, whether or not she even wanted to be in some cases, because the moment you become a member of the provincial party, you're a member of the federal party, etc.

00:12:27.640 So there's all these all these connections.

00:12:29.800 But she did everything in her power to try and put distance between her and Jagmeet and to some degree was successful. 0.97

00:12:38.280 I mean, you look at the support that she picked up in parts of Calgary amongst disaffected conservatives who had concerns about, you know, where Danielle would take the party.

00:12:50.440 And honestly, the NDP did quite a good job on on on on bringing that vote home on Election Day.

00:12:58.140 As you pointed out at the beginning of the interview, I mean, it was a couple of thousand votes made all the difference between electing a UCP government and electing an NDP government.

00:13:08.680 You know, Monty, you mentioned Calgary, you look at some of the races, Calgary bow, the UCP won that 12,940 votes to the NDP's 12,555.

00:13:20.800 But then there's some that are even closer, Calgary Glenmore.

00:13:23.480 It's a 30 vote difference for the NDP winning that riding.

00:13:28.960 There are others that obviously are going into recounts as well.

00:13:33.360 Is that a is that a knock against the UCP and Danielle Smith that the NDP was so successful in Calgary?

00:13:44.260 It's interesting.

00:13:45.320 It is certainly a backhanded criticism of the of the UCP in a sense.

00:13:53.480 You know, those ridings are reliably conservative, typically.

00:13:57.240 And when you look at how well the federal conservative party does in Calgary and throughout Alberta, I mean, it's night and day.

00:14:06.280 Federally, you know, the conservatives poll well over 60 percent in the provincial election was 53 percent.

00:14:12.780 But in a lot of that vote was concentrated in rural areas.

00:14:16.660 When you look at Calgary, you know, the vote just wasn't strong enough, given the disappearance of the third parties in Alberta, like the provincial liberals and the Alberta party, which barely showed up at all.

00:14:29.540 So a lot of that vote and those sort of disaffected red Tories, you know, their combined vote came was enough in some cases to knock off people like Whitney Isaac and Calgary Glenmore by a mere 30 votes.

00:14:46.120 But remember, that's also a riding where in the past in 2015, the NDP won by I think it was seven or eight votes.

00:14:53.880 So, you know, ridings like that are vulnerable when all the conditions are right.

00:14:59.200 And in this particular case, all the conditions were there.

00:15:04.260 Alberta has gone to a de facto two party system right now.

00:15:09.220 We'll see if it stays that way because things have been fluid.

00:15:11.680 I remember being out there in 2012 covering the election.

00:15:17.120 That was the one that a lot of people thought Daniel Smith would win and become premier as leader of the Wild Rose back then.

00:15:23.680 But the the NDP was, I think, the fourth place party at that point, the Alberta Liberal Party had prior to that election had more seats than the NDP.

00:15:37.000 And they may have at the end as well.

00:15:38.180 I forget they have just disappeared.

00:15:41.660 And so the well, the third, fourth and fifth parties aren't really factors anymore.

00:15:48.380 How does that change the politics in Alberta?

00:15:51.520 Is it just if if you're a new Democrat federally, you're definitely with them.

00:15:58.220 If you're a liberal, you're split between them and the UCP.

00:16:01.420 How does that work?

00:16:03.620 So it's it's very interesting.

00:16:05.660 You know, going back a little bit of a sort of political history lesson, the Alberta Liberals actually became a real force in the 93 election under Lawrence DeCore's leadership.

00:16:15.820 And DeCore made them popular by almost running to the right of the Ralph Klein conservatives.

00:16:24.880 And DeCore came very close to winning winning that election.

00:16:29.280 It was tight for the longest time.

00:16:31.960 The legacy of DeCore lived on and the Liberal Party of Alberta had strength in parts of Calgary and in Edmonton.

00:16:39.700 And most of that was based on pretty practical policies.

00:16:44.720 Some of those MLAs were quite conservative leaning, but socially liberal.

00:16:50.760 And that's how they survived and held on for a long period of time.

00:16:54.660 But after a while, the leadership changed.

00:16:58.300 Support started to diminish and leadership was taken over by people who were definitely on the left.

00:17:03.920 And the parties basically disappeared, went to went to zero.

00:17:08.740 Now the dynamic is very different.

00:17:13.360 You have a number of things happening all at once.

00:17:16.460 You know, we had Danielle Smith coming in in a weakened position because of her past comments and just concerns about where she would take the party. 1.00

00:17:24.200 But the party brand is very strong.

00:17:26.080 As I said, conservative in Alberta is synonymous.

00:17:30.640 And the brand is just something that just keeps going on.

00:17:35.660 The NDP brand has been very difficult for the party to overcome, especially on the economy.

00:17:44.620 Social Democrats just don't do well, typically because of economic issues.

00:17:48.780 But because Rachel Notley was able to move to the center so dramatically over the protests of some in her party, they had a shot this time.

00:18:01.400 They've also professionalized their party.

00:18:04.040 They were very good at fundraising going into the election campaign, criticizing both Jason Kenney and then Danielle Smith.

00:18:12.260 They raised a lot of organizers from all over and really got good at identifying votes and determining, you know, what kind of policies they needed to appeal to people in the center in Alberta.

00:18:28.060 And to some degree, lessened the stigma that goes with voting for the NDP.

00:18:35.520 Meanwhile, the United Conservative Party started in that hole that Danielle Smith partially created for herself, but partially were things that were taken away out of context from many years ago.

00:18:48.760 And so it took some real good politicking through the campaign, especially the debate performance to turn that around.

00:18:57.100 But that's that really gives you a sense of the sort of the political dynamics.

00:19:01.540 And going forward, Brian, I think it's going to be a bit of a riding by riding fight from here on in, you know, on things like things like education, things like safe streets, safe transit systems, all of that kind of thing.

00:19:17.980 Because let's face it, the future will be fought in the cities where the population is growing more quickly, where there'll be more seats added in the future.

00:19:26.820 And if the UCP doesn't learn to speak urban issues to voters, they're going to have a difficult time in the years ahead.

00:19:36.120 I mean, Calgary had traditionally been very solid ground for anybody running on a vaguely conservative banner.

00:19:43.840 Edmonton, not quite as friendly to conservatives.

00:19:47.360 What's that dynamic?

00:19:49.300 You know, why is one city reliably or had been reliably conservative and the other is nicknamed Redmonton?

00:19:54.820 Yeah, well, it's a good question.

00:19:59.060 I mean, part of the problem with part of the challenge with Edmonton is it's a government town.

00:20:03.640 They tend to be a bit more left leaning and oriented.

00:20:07.600 They have, you know, the major university, which automatically almost gives the NDP some seats.

00:20:13.540 So, you know, you have all of this that is happening in in Edmonton.

00:20:19.320 But I, you know, I can speculate.

00:20:21.520 I mean, I do think that tone matters.

00:20:25.080 I think that to some degree, the UCP has suffered from some overheated rhetoric at times of the past.

00:20:33.300 I mean, I think overheated rhetoric often works when it comes to Ottawa.

00:20:36.700 But, you know, sort of talking in sort of an angry way about some of the other issues, I think, is a bit of a turnoff to voters.

00:20:46.620 And I think we need to really assess whether or not we can find a better way to make our points without some of that harsh tone that I think to some degree drives away certain groups, especially women, especially in the suburbs, where so many of these battles are being fought.

00:21:09.280 So these are things I that I, you know, I certainly can't say for sure, but it's my hunch that that is some of the challenge.

00:21:17.000 That's something that Doug Ford managed to do.

00:21:19.360 And it's interesting.

00:21:20.100 I mean, I just before the election, I got a note from a friend in Lethbridge who said, I'm terrified of the the UCP or the NDP winning.

00:21:33.720 I don't want to have to leave Alberta to go back to Fords, Ontario, where there's nothing conservative.

00:21:40.400 And I thought, well, wait a minute.

00:21:42.720 You guys are, you know, people say Alberta is so conservative.

00:21:46.600 You guys just about elected an NDP government, something we haven't come close to doing since 1990 in Ontario.

00:21:54.060 Your spending's higher than than Ontario.

00:21:57.780 It's almost the highest in the country on education, on health care.

00:22:01.920 Per capita spending is huge.

00:22:03.340 Is Alberta really as conservative as people think or is it a branding?

00:22:08.380 Well, so I think with Alberta, one of the things that makes it conservative in a unique way is our alienation from Ottawa.

00:22:17.040 And, you know, that's something the rest of the country or much of the rest of the country doesn't necessarily feel.

00:22:23.720 But in Alberta and Saskatchewan in particular, that is something that's deeply felt.

00:22:29.500 And it is synonymous with conservatism, I would say.

00:22:34.120 But in other ways, you're right.

00:22:36.680 You know, we spend more on our social programs than anywhere else in the country.

00:22:41.560 And it's an embarrassment to some conservatives, me included, because, you know, we don't get the results, I think, for the money we pay.

00:22:51.060 So that's something that I think governments need to work on and maybe work on at least quietly.

00:22:57.380 But the other big issue that makes us conservative, I think, is our approach to oil and gas.

00:23:06.640 We see it as being necessary.

00:23:09.060 We think that rushing ahead to end the oil and gas industry by 2035 or 2050 is ridiculous.

00:23:18.520 We know that the world will depend on oil and gas for decades and decades to come.

00:23:26.020 And if someone is going to be supplying that oil and gas and doing it in a way that is sustainable and that captures emissions,

00:23:33.160 it should be Alberta and it should be Saskatchewan.

00:23:36.160 It should be Western Canada, which benefits the entire country,

00:23:39.660 as opposed to ceding that ground to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia and Russia, as examples.

00:23:50.260 All right, Monty, I want to talk about that alienation from the rest of Canada.

00:23:54.720 When we come back, we're going to take a quick break.

00:23:56.680 And, you know, your description of oil and gas, maybe I'm an Albertan at heart.

00:24:01.120 I wish we still had petrolia as a going concern here in Ontario.

00:24:04.840 The start of the Canadian oil industry.

00:24:07.640 We'll be back.

00:24:08.360 I know.

00:24:08.800 I've been there.

00:24:09.300 I've been there.

00:24:10.040 Back in a moment with Monty Sauvourg.

00:24:15.260 Bank more encores when you switch to a Scotiabank banking package.

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00:24:25.000 Scotiabank.

00:24:25.760 You're richer than you think.

00:24:27.700 Western alienation is definitely a real thing.

00:24:31.020 And it's something that we talked about a few episodes ago with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe,

00:24:36.940 that there is just this sense that Ottawa doesn't care about Western Canada.

00:24:44.900 When you were an MP, especially, you know, you were in opposition for a long time,

00:24:49.500 but you were in government for several years as well, including in cabinet.

00:24:53.160 Did you feel that there was a difference during the Harper government years?

00:24:58.120 Oh, for sure.

00:24:59.740 During the Harper government years, Stephen Harper, you know, fought for fairness in transfers and, for instance,

00:25:07.580 changed the transfer formula so that provinces would get transfers based on population,

00:25:15.180 which seems like an obvious thing to do, but it wasn't the case when we came to power.

00:25:22.140 So he did that and that helped balance things out so that Alberta was treated a bit more fairly when it came to that.

00:25:29.500 And he certainly didn't penalize the oil and gas sector.

00:25:32.340 To the contrary, he looked for ways to help them succeed and approve several pipelines, etc.

00:25:38.320 And, you know, I was hoping to have the chance to do more when the government ultimately fell.

00:25:45.700 But, you know, it was as much a tone as it was some of the policies that were brought in.

00:25:52.040 Alberta was respected.

00:25:53.260 It was given a place at the table in Confederation.

00:25:56.540 And right now, it feels very much like Alberta is not welcome in the big discussions that are happening now,

00:26:04.640 especially on the future of energy and climate change, where the Trudeau government is very ideological,

00:26:12.420 is putting in place these unrealistic targets that are going to drive up the cost of everything for Canadians

00:26:18.960 and put a lot of people out of work.

00:26:21.320 They were pushing for the fertilizer emissions reductions in a way that would have hurt food production in Canada.

00:26:30.100 They seem to have backed off that front a little bit, or they've at least slowed down.

00:26:35.640 But, I mean, a policy that would see production of pretty much everything grown out of the ground in Canada reduced dramatically.

00:26:44.200 Yeah, they had a 30% target for essentially to reduce nitrous oxide,

00:26:51.020 which means substantially getting rid of fertilizer that we use to grow wheat, grow canola,

00:27:01.140 grow everything that we consume and export.

00:27:04.780 And, you know, there was enough pressure on the federal liberals that they actually voted against their own proposition at committee.

00:27:15.520 And so for now, that seems to be laid to rest.

00:27:19.600 Although, frankly, if the government intends on hitting its 2035 and 2050 targets,

00:27:25.080 they have to pull every lever they can.

00:27:27.660 And they have to do it in a way that's hell-bent to get their results,

00:27:31.860 which means they don't care about what happens to the economy and to the individuals impacted by it.

00:27:38.680 I mean, I just don't see how they can achieve both,

00:27:41.320 how they can leave Canada prosperous and hit those targets at the same time.

00:27:47.840 In fact, more and more you're seeing people come out against it.

00:27:52.920 Even the Public Policy Forum just released a paper saying that, you know,

00:27:57.780 the government's targets essentially are unrealistic.

00:28:00.520 And the Public Policy Forum is no right-wing, you know, mouthpiece.

00:28:05.280 Oh, it's been a reliably liberal organization, small-l liberal, you know,

00:28:11.040 mushy middle sort of organization forever.

00:28:13.200 Exactly. And, you know, when you have organizations like PPF,

00:28:19.380 Canadian Chamber, and many others, bank economists, all saying,

00:28:22.780 hey, hold on here, this is a near and present danger to our prosperity,

00:28:27.360 and it's unnecessary, you know, I think at that point it's really time to listen and take heed.

00:28:35.040 All right. Now, how does this alienation from Ottawa play out in terms of how Danielle Smith,

00:28:44.120 now that she has secured a second term, how does it play out in her relationship with the Trudeau government?

00:28:51.220 If it lasts, we'll see.

00:28:54.840 You know, does she go in guns a-blazing, fighting on all fronts, or does she pick her battles? 1.00

00:29:01.360 Well, she needs to pick her battles. 1.00

00:29:03.400 I mean, it's complicated, Brian, I won't kid you.

00:29:06.780 I mean, on the one hand, we have the Trudeau liberals to be concerned about,

00:29:10.000 and on the other hand, we have the Biden administration with their Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S.

00:29:16.320 that is using huge incentives to draw investment into the U.S.

00:29:20.860 for things like carbon capture, utilization and storage,

00:29:23.980 and all kinds of other incentives that will impact industry in Canada.

00:29:31.620 You know, you're seeing it in Ontario, where EV makers are being drawn to the south,

00:29:38.880 or potentially being drawn to the south, and you're seeing it in Alberta as well.

00:29:42.340 So something needs to give.

00:29:45.460 Alberta needs its own climate strategy to mesh with the federal strategy in order to prevent that investment leaving Alberta.

00:29:56.300 We also need it in order to draw financing to the oil and gas sector,

00:30:01.300 because if you don't have a climate plan these days, it's very difficult to raise financing.

00:30:06.820 It's also difficult to avoid activist shareholders taking seats on your board to help change the direction your company is headed.

00:30:14.620 So these things are, it's difficult.

00:30:16.920 What I do know is that the Premier needs to pick her battles. 1.00

00:30:21.160 So on election night, she was very vocal about fighting for Alberta on some of the restrictions the federal government wants to place on the industry.

00:30:31.840 But on the other hand, we know that in the back rooms, they will have to come to some kind of an arrangement,

00:30:37.200 or it will be difficult for the oil and gas sector to survive.

00:30:40.520 Where do you think she goes on issues that have been floating around forever,

00:30:46.160 such as Alberta getting its own pension plan,

00:30:50.900 or dropping the RCMP policing contract in favor of local policing?

00:30:57.620 It's funny to hear my colleagues here in eastern Canada act as if this is somehow revolutionary.

00:31:05.160 We have our own provincial police force in Ontario, for people that haven't noticed.

00:31:09.060 Quebec has their own provincial police force and their own pension plan that's not part of the CPP.

00:31:16.580 But every time these issues that were in the infamous firewall letter are raised,

00:31:22.320 people act as if it's a separatist movement.

00:31:25.220 I don't think so, but does she act on those?

00:31:28.160 Are people looking for that, or are they looking for her to take care of the economy, 0.99

00:31:32.980 fund the schools, fund the hospitals, have the roads paved?

00:31:36.180 Yeah, it's a great question, and it's not entirely clear what the answer is.

00:31:42.480 You know, one of the considerations, I think, is to sit down with caucus after,

00:31:47.900 you know, we've lost a number of seats, and identify from caucus, what are your priorities?

00:31:53.840 You know, we've made some commitments around things like an Alberta police force

00:31:59.240 and an Alberta pension plan, and we said we would listen to people and talk to them

00:32:03.320 and potentially put these things to a referendum.

00:32:06.620 But I think the first step is to determine what the sequence should be

00:32:12.840 and whether or not some of those other things even move forward,

00:32:15.740 whether there's an appetite, not just in rural Alberta,

00:32:19.700 but, you know, right across the entire province.

00:32:23.240 Your point, though, is a good one, you know, about things like an Alberta provincial police force.

00:32:32.380 You know, many of our city police forces in Alberta are not the RCMP.

00:32:40.060 They have their own police forces, and others are switching to city police forces right now.

00:32:45.560 So, there's no question there's been problems with the RCMP.

00:32:49.700 I think we all know that.

00:32:50.760 In fact, Marco Mendicino is coming out committing to address some of the problems in the RCMP.

00:32:56.860 So, clearly, that's an issue.

00:32:58.580 So, I hope people don't look down their nose too much at us for asking the question,

00:33:02.940 because it's a valid question.

00:33:05.000 With respect to the pension plan, you know, it's a difficult issue, again,

00:33:11.860 because, on the one hand, Alberta has a very young population,

00:33:17.620 and so there is a temptation to say we pay way more into Canada pension plan than we will ever receive.

00:33:23.580 On the other side, people are wondering, well, is it portable if I move to British Columbia

00:33:28.660 after I've been working in Alberta?

00:33:32.220 Do I get to take my plan with me?

00:33:34.200 And there's all kinds of those sorts of vesting issues and things like that that people wonder about.

00:33:40.700 They wonder about, would it be turned over to a bunch of wild-eyed radicals

00:33:44.420 who would invest in things that would make the fund go broke over a period of time?

00:33:50.760 Or would it be used, as it is in Quebec, as a political tool to invest in industries

00:33:57.280 that the government wants to support?

00:33:59.420 Yeah, exactly.

00:34:00.180 And that clearly has happened in Quebec, and, you know, some people might think that's good,

00:34:07.560 but a lot of people would say, you know, there's a lot of danger in that.

00:34:11.900 And so these are questions that need to be vetted and discussed and debated, I think,

00:34:18.100 before we get any clear sense of whether that question would even come forward,

00:34:23.300 and then secondly, would it ever get the approval of the people of Alberta

00:34:27.220 to move forward with their own pension plan?

00:34:30.580 It's interesting that we're talking about, you know, a pension plan and the RCMP,

00:34:35.220 whereas a couple of years ago, there was an attempt to get the separatist movement going in Alberta.

00:34:39.860 There was the Buffalo movement.

00:34:41.820 There was, you know, people trying to start parties.

00:34:44.600 That Maverick Party, your old colleague Jay Hill was part of that.

00:34:48.900 That's kind of all fizzled away, both federally and provincially, hasn't it?

00:34:54.280 Well, it has.

00:34:55.940 But, you know, in Alberta, we start new political parties about every 10 minutes.

00:35:01.540 So we are not afraid to do that.

00:35:03.960 If we feel like things aren't going the way we want them to go,

00:35:07.600 we'll start a political party.

00:35:09.540 And, you know, 9 out of 10 fail.

00:35:11.880 But some, like the Reform Party, Wild Rose, and others that have become governments in Alberta,

00:35:18.300 like Social Credit and the United Farmers of Alberta back in the day,

00:35:22.320 you know, they go on to achieve important things and set the direction for the province.

00:35:28.260 So that can still happen, but that depends on, you know, the wise leadership of our premier.

00:35:34.900 I mean, if she listens carefully to the concerns of rural Albertans, secondary cities, and the large cities,

00:35:46.700 and finds a way to reconcile those interests, she can continue to govern for a very, very long time. 1.00

00:35:53.840 But it requires a level of listening and dedication to solving problems that, so far, you know,

00:36:04.140 not many premiers have managed to achieve.

00:36:07.740 I will say that the Ford government has done about as good a job at that as any I've seen in Canada.

00:36:13.340 They come closest, in my mind, to a party that can reconcile rural and urban and suburban beliefs.

00:36:20.180 And I would recommend to Danielle Smith that she take a close look at how Doug Ford is doing what he's doing.

00:36:29.040 Well, you mentioned earlier factions in the NDP.

00:36:32.320 Let's talk then about those factions within the UCP, because there is, first off, your recent record in Alberta,

00:36:40.440 not only of starting political parties every 10 minutes, but not giving a premier a second chance.

00:36:45.320 I think we'd all agree this is really Danielle Smith's first election as premier.

00:36:51.440 I'm sure she'd like to win another term in four years. 1.00

00:36:55.800 Does she keep those factions together? 1.00

00:36:58.040 There's the old PC Wild Rose Rift.

00:37:00.740 There's social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, urban, rural.

00:37:04.060 You've got this take-back Alberta group that's trying to flex some muscle.

00:37:07.500 Yeah, well, I mean, I think she has to do the same thing that I talked about between rural and urban.

00:37:14.440 She really has to find a way to reconcile these things.

00:37:19.100 You know, part of the issue is, I think rural Alberta feels like they were ignored for a period of time,

00:37:28.120 and some of their issues aren't being addressed.

00:37:30.900 Well, I don't think we can argue that anymore.

00:37:32.780 Rural Alberta is firmly in charge in the government of Alberta.

00:37:36.600 They have the majority of seats.

00:37:38.380 They'll have all kinds of cabinet ministers, and they have a premier that hails from rural Alberta.

00:37:43.560 So rural Alberta will get its say.

00:37:45.960 I think the biggest challenge now is to bring urban Alberta into the fold.

00:37:52.060 You know, take-back Alberta has a voice, for sure. 1.00

00:37:56.040 I think the premier is wise to not pay it too much heed, and so far hasn't.

00:38:00.200 I can't imagine they'll be very pleased with some of the policy decisions that the premier has taken to date.

00:38:06.600 Since take-back Alberta has been influential in winning a majority of the positions within the infrastructure of the political party,

00:38:17.380 the United Conservative Party.

00:38:19.380 But, you know, to her credit, the premier said, no, we're governing for the province, not just for take-back Alberta.

00:38:25.160 And she's brought it into effect of policies that are, I think, quite sensible.

00:38:31.400 So the challenge, in my mind, will mostly be with urban Alberta.

00:38:38.120 And I don't think she should pay a whole heck of a lot of attention to some of the more out-there voices on either side of the spectrum.

00:38:46.940 If she governs toward the middle and fights for Alberta in Ottawa, I think she'll be in a good position.

00:38:53.440 But you don't seem to have any fears that the Wild Rose PC factions would break apart.

00:39:03.500 Well, they may well try, but, you know, a lot of the people that would be the proponents of breaking apart are going to be sitting in Danielle Smith's cabinet. 0.63

00:39:12.820 And, you know, I think about Brian Jean, Todd Lohan, people like that.

00:39:17.880 They'll be sitting in that cabinet, and they are the ones that are going to drive the agenda in Alberta.

00:39:22.300 And, you know, I think everybody gets paid attention to at various times, and they get things that will matter to them.

00:39:29.980 You know, and that's the way the government should govern. 0.76

00:39:32.140 They should be mindful that there are different factions.

00:39:35.200 And if she is going to be the premier for everyone, which was her election night commitment, then she has to make sure that their issues get addressed over the next four years.

00:39:47.580 And if she's wise, she'll do just that.

00:39:50.560 Wise words from Monty Sahlberg.

00:39:52.620 Monty, thanks for the time today, and we'll have to see you out in Calgary sometime soon.

00:39:57.280 I'd like that, Brian.

00:39:58.160 Thanks so much.

00:39:58.800 Take care.

00:39:59.160 A Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:40:01.880 My name is Brian Lilly, your host.

00:40:03.540 This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:40:07.600 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:40:09.840 Remember, you can subscribe to Full Comment on Apple Podcasts, Google, Spotify, Amazon Music.

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00:40:18.940 Thanks for listening, and until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

Full Comment - June 05, 2023

Danielle Smith could govern Alberta for a ‘very, very long time’

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