Driven into the ditch by Trudeau, Liberals have no clear way out
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Summary
Chris Hilley is a political columnist with the National Post and has spent decades covering politicians of all stripes. He's seen governments come and go, and some even rescue themselves from seeming oblivion. But this week, he's taking a political temperature check on the state of the federal government.
Transcript
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That is why today we are announcing a three-year pause on the federal pollution price on heating
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oil so that we can give everyone the time and ability to switch to heat pumps.
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That moment right there, that might be the moment that Canadians realized it was pretty
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much over for the Trudeau government. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau standing in front of
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his Atlantic Canadian Liberal MPs and saying with a straight face that he was pausing the
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carbon tax on home heating oil and claiming that this was about fighting climate change
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and not just a brazen attempt to save his political fortunes. Hello and welcome to the Full Comment
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podcast. I'm Brian Lilly, your host, and today we're talking about the state of the Trudeau
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government. It's been a tough few months for them in the polls, but the last few weeks in
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particular have been really tough on them. It's one of the hardest falls I've seen in my
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near quarter century of covering politics. So one of the questions is, can they recover?
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Is there someone to take over if Trudeau decides it's time to leave? And what about Pierre
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Pollyup and the Conservatives? Chris Hilley is a political columnist with the National Post.
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He spent decades covering the political ups and downs of politicians of all stripes. He's seen
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governments come and go, and some even rescue themselves from seeming oblivion. He seemed like
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the right guest to have on this week to take a political temperature check and to survey the state
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of the Fair Dominion. I got to say, the last couple of weeks for the Trudeau liberals have been one of the
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most disastrous things I've ever watched in politics. And I've seen governments fall apart.
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We've, you know, I wasn't covering it, but I'm old enough to remember the Mulroney or Kim Campbell
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Conservatives going down to two seats. But this is a very rapid decline for them, wouldn't you say?
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It's a rapid decline brought on, as you say, by them just turning tail on some of their,
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well, carbon tax, their central environmental policy. You can't, I mean, the whole point of a
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carbon tax is supposed to be that it's simple and that you don't have carve-outs. You don't have
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special deals for special industries. Now, Canada is a big country. You pretty much have to have
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allowances for people who live in rural areas as opposed to urban areas.
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And they've got an increased rebate for rural areas. And so that does account, and they're
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doubling that across the country. So that is something for everyone. But they were making
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very clear that this was a means of helping people in Atlantic Canada specifically, because
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more Atlantic Canadians use a home heating room than anywhere else in the province. And
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it's ridiculous. You know, only a month ago, you had Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeau saying,
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you know, how ridiculous would it look if we carved out things for different parts of the
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province? I mean, it just wouldn't work that way. And then they went and did it, because for that
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long, Atlantic liberal MPs have been going to their party and saying, you have to do something or this
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is going to kill us. Exactly. Exactly. And so, you know, I'm barely even seeing anyone in media or
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anywhere else even giving the benefit of the doubt that this is sort of in any way. I mean, it's helped
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for Atlantic Canadians, for sure. But it's a political move. And after seven years or eight
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years of them telling you that this is what we need to do our part to save the planet.
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And now they go and just torpedo the whole idea of a carbon tax. And for what? I mean,
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why would you vote for the party that's going to take the carbon tax off home heating oil for three
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years, presumably bringing it back afterwards, when you could vote for the party that's going to get
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rid of it altogether? And when they bring it back after the three year pause, they will have increased
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it three times. Yeah, presumably. Yeah. Because it goes up every April 1st or July 1st. I can't remember
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which time of the year the carbon tax goes up. But it's remarkable. The line I've been using is
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this was all done because Justin Trudeau's support in Atlantic Canada was melting faster than the
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polarized caps. That red wall in Atlantic Canada that surprised many, myself included, in 2015, I thought
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he would do well in Atlantic Canada. Yeah. I didn't think he would sweep the way he did. And that formed
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the basis of his majority government. He's still got 24 out of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada. But every
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poll is showing he's going to be just about wiped out one seat. Some projections say in Newfoundland out
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of seven, about four in New Brunswick could be wiped out in Nova Scotia and PEI. That's a significant
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drop. And there's no way that he can form government without that. So do the voters in Atlantic Canada
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turn around and say, well, sure, it's craven politics, but it helps my pocketbook. So I'll
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take it. Yeah. Well, look, craven politics is, look, you got to go out there and fight for your
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best interest in politics. And they've successfully done that. The Atlantic caucus has successfully done
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that. But that doesn't mean it's going to save their bacon. I mean, you and I have seen all sorts
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of governments do last Hail Mary passes at the end of the day, throwing out policies that they held
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dear. It doesn't usually work because at the end of the day, you look ridiculous. And especially if
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there's another party that's offering you the same relief or better, Atlantic Canadians have proven
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themselves swing voters. And that's, it helps. It helps when you want to get things done in Ottawa.
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The, the announcement that Trudeau made, um, it's not lost on me that he made it as Pierre
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Paulieff, the conservative leader was flying to Windsor, Nova Scotia, middle of the writing of King's
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hands. Scott Bryson's all writing. Remember the, you know, everything bad happened to the Trudeau
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liberals at one point was Scott Bryson involved, but he, uh, you know, he held that writing and the
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liberals have held it for 20 years. That's a long time. Pierre Paulie, I've had a thousand people out
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in, on a Thursday night in October with no election on. Yeah. That's, you know, when I've covered
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election campaigns, I have not seen it, you know, it's not, not easy to get a thousand people out at
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the height of a contested election campaign. And we're potentially two years out, you know,
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we're not just right in the middle of it. We're not just not in an election campaign. It could
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potentially be ages. And if I'm the liberals, I don't know why, well, I mean, I don't know what,
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what you're planning at this point. I mean, you don't want an election now. I guess you hang on as
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long as you can. If, if that's Justin Trudeau's, uh, if that's what he wants to do, if he just wants
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to stay prime minister, but you know, I guess the bright side for liberals is there's two, two years
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to turn things around, but then you wonder what could possibly, what would that be? Um, I guess
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every two week period can't be as terrible as the last two weeks. Yeah. The last few weeks have been
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really bad. I do want to point out, I believe, uh, both national post and Toronto sun had news of
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this poll over the last few days. The latest Leger numbers showed that, um, not only were the
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conservatives ahead on the national numbers at 40% support, but in Atlantic Canada, they had 46%
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of course. And that was in a poll taken the Friday, Saturday and Sunday after Trudeau's big
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announcement, which of course was all the news in Atlantic Canada. Yeah. And this is with Pierre
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Polyev. I mean, let's not forget how long, how recently people were saying, oh, no, I mean,
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Pierre Polyev is a terrible choice. He's unlikable. People won't, people won't cotton onto him.
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People won't, uh, like his, his attitude. I mean, either, I mean, I think he's found something that
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he didn't have before in terms of his, his presentation. Um, but this, this is, this is
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Justin Trudeau to me. This is, this is like, this is like when Doug Ford, you know, Doug Ford versus
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Christine Elliott for the PC leadership here in Ontario, that was really the race to be the next
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premier. And that was the race with, with the conservatives federally, I think, but I'm
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impressed with Polyev. I never thought I'd see him in the forties. I thought he would, I thought
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he could become prime minister, you know, with a mid thirties, um, results with, with a minority,
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but this is really spectacular to see. And he's over delivering, I would say right now. Um, and
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the question is, can he keep it? The back in the end of May, there were a lot of polls that
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still had the, uh, the conservatives and the liberals tied. I think there was a Leger poll
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then, and then had them, I think it was effectively tied 33 for the conservatives, 31 for the liberals,
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which would have given us pretty much the parliament we have now. Now, the seat projections would say
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over 200 seats for the conservatives. And, you know, the, on Monday, they're going to have this
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vote to, um, you know, for Polyev's motion that says you've got to either expand the home heating
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oil, uh, tax break for everyone on the carbon tax. Uh, you've got to expand it to people who use
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natural gas, propane, what have you, or liberal and NDP MPs have to stand up and say, oh no,
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we won't do that. So they're kind of between a rock and a hard place. And, and, and folks are going
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to notice if you're one of 76 liberal MPs in Ontario, where almost everyone uses natural gas, how do you
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turn around and say to your voters? Yeah. You just, we don't care enough. Yeah. Natural gas,
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which is what 30% cleaner in terms of emissions than home heating oil, which, so there's no way to
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sell this at all. I mean, you'd have been better off sticking with home heating oil, uh, under,
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under this plan. And that's just, it, it, you know, I, I feel like they killed the carbon tax dead
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in a stroke, um, doing that. I don't see how, how, as you say, how can they possibly stand up in
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the house of commons and tell someone who's burning cleaner, cleaner fuel to heat their home
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that, that they're not entitled to something who's down the, down the block. Someone's burning
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dirtier fuel. I mean, the whole idea of the carbon tax is that it should be incentivizing that person
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with the dirty fuel to get the cleaner fuel. And now they're rewarding. Well, they're not rewarding
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people. I mean, Atlantic Canada, like you can't just flip a switch and, and, and have a heat pump
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or have a, or switch natural gas. Well, apparently we're going to flip this way and in three years
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install thousands upon thousands of heat pumps that may or may not, we may not have enough of
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the manufacturer. It may not have enough skilled tradespeople to install them. And there's questions
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about whether they will work in the colder parts of the country. Yeah. Well, those are the sorts of
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things that I don't think this government really thinks that far in advance. I mean,
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the, the, the, the announcement, like I've been saying for a while, like the announcement is the
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policy. You know what I mean? Like, it's like, we're going to come out and we're going to say
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something and it may or may not happen down the line, but we just want to get through the day here
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without having too much crap fall down on our heads. And that's what, that, that's what they did for
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that one day. Uh, and they, you know, probably there's probably some liberal voters in, uh,
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Atlantic Canada. I think, oh, thank God. Like, all right, now I can go back to my safety vote and I
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get some money off my home heating, but everyone else, why, why, why would I, I mean, the NDP is,
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is, as I always called for, you know, to, to, to exempt, um, home heating from certainly the GST.
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I'm not sure about the carbon tax, not the carbon tax. Um, but you know, there's other options for you
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out there. If you want to save money on, on your, on, on your home heating. And I just don't
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understand. And then, and then, you know, other things that the liberals are doing recently, you
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know, smart, relatively smart things. I think, you know, you got new housing minister, Sean Fraser,
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who's, who's putting the screws to municipalities that won't, uh, approve dense enough developments.
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But I mean, that's, that was a pure polyev idea and not originally, but he, he was the one who
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popularized it just recently. And everyone, all liberals saying, well, that won't work. It's ridiculous.
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We need to work with municipalities. You know, we need to convene and we need to, and we need
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to be friendly with everyone. And then suddenly you've got Sean Fraser sending off a, uh, a barbed
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letter to, to the mayor of Calgary saying, no, we're not going to, we're not going to approve
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this. Um, we're not going to approve this, this development. We're not going to fund this
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development unless you make it denser. So let's just do an aside on that. Um, yeah, some good
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policies in there, but they're going about doing it in a way, what you just described,
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the announcement is the policy. They're going city by city. Yeah. 444 municipalities just in
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Ontario. They could have gone to the provinces and Ontario has just gone through a legislative
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process. British Columbia did to do densification. And that includes saying as of right, you can
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build three homes on what used to be considered a single family dwelling lot. The provincial
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government in Ontario went with three because too many municipalities balked at four and they
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said, well, you know, three works in some, four would work in some, but not others. So
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they did that. They could have just gone to the province and said, make it four and we'll
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give you extra money and you can help us distribute it. Yep. But you don't get as many photo ops.
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No, you don't get to go out with every single announcement. And so they, you know, they, they
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could have worked with British Columbia and they could have worked with Ontario, the two
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places where this is the biggest issue, but well, they're not liberals, so we won't work
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with them. Yeah. It's, uh, it, it is a government that just seems to be, uh, flailing it at every
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turn. Now you've got this two environmental conferences going on in Ottawa in the days after this
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carbon tax announcement. You've got Catherine McKenna and future liberal leader, Mark Carney,
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uh, both criticizing it. Yeah. Uh, well, of course they are, but how can you not criticize
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it? It's, it's just a complete abdication of the whole idea of a carbon tax. You've had,
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you've got Percy down and Lawrence Martin, both recently coming up with columns saying that
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Justin Trudeau has got to go and Percy down is, you know, unless you're a real political
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want, you're not going to know who he is, but he's a big deal in liberal circles.
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Yes. He was John Kretchen's chief of staff for a time. He was a liberal Senator for years
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and Lawrence Martin, you know, globe columnist, who's not been unfriendly to the Trudeau liberal
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to say the least. And for them to both come out and say, this guy's time's up. That's significant.
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It's significant, except who, except who replaces him? I mean, yeah, it's, it's quite clear that his
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time is up, but someone's got to be a liberal leader. And I mean, who wants to donate their
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body to that cause? I mean, I mean, you know, there are, there's only so many Kathleen wins
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in the world, right? I mean, that was a, that was a, uh, a clapped out government here in Ontario
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that Kathleen Wynne came in and she's a great campaigner and she, you know, she pulled it
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out of the fire. There's not many people that can do that. And I look at the, and she did that in 2014,
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but not 2018. No, no, that's right. Well, and then, and then, you know, the Ontario liberals have
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to look at that and say, did we accomplish anything in those four years that is worth
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the oblivion that we now live in? There's many in Ontario, the liberals who were in power for
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15 years are now the minivan party. Yeah. They can all commute to work together. That's right. And
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the liberals have, you know, I don't think the federal liberals are ever going to, you know,
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they, they hit bottom with Ignatieff. I think that's probably their floor. I don't think they're
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going to get wiped out to three or four seats, but, but they're not supposed to like this, you know,
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this is, this is an incredible brand that Justin Trudeau was driving into the ditch here. Um, let,
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let me ask you about that then, uh, because part of Percy Downs letter was talking about how the
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liberals need to get back to the center. And there are still liberals out there who
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talk as if this is a centrist party. They haven't noticed that this is not a centrist party. This
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is not your grandfather's or your father's or your uncle's liberal party anymore. This is the party of
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Justin Trudeau. In fact, he, he, he even calls it a movement. He doesn't call it a party. It's,
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it's a movement built around it. They got rid of membership fees. So like, I'm probably considered
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part of the movement because as any smart journalist, I've signed up for their mailing list.
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All they need is your email and you're part of their movement. Yep. Um, I'm sure, you know,
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you probably don't even have to sign up. It'll probably just arrive.
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So you and I are likely members of this movement that I don't know about you, but I have no intention
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of voting for, and they, they've just built it all around Trudeau. And now his brand is falling apart.
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I think that's exactly right. I think it's, it's not a left, right thing. It's a Trudeau thing.
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Like Trudeau. Yeah. I, I think he's probably to the left of your, your average liberal government
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over the, over the decades. But I don't think there's anything like, it's not like he's, he's a
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coherent leftist or a coherent ideologue of any sort. I just think it's just a mess of preferences
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and, and weird ideas pinging around his, his head. And there's no one who seems to be in charge
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who has any ability to sort of, I mean, this has always been true. Like whether he's going on
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vacation on the Iacons Island or saying some stupid stuff about canoe storage, like this is just,
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as you say, it's all him. He does what he seems to do, what he wants, even when it seems to be an
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absolutely terrible idea. Um, and now they're paying the price. All they can do is, is just
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try and give people what they want. Um, you know, so we're listening after we're going to do all these
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things that you need after eight years when the opposition parties are promising them as well.
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I don't know. I mean, I just, I, I, if, if I was liberal, I would probably want a new leader too.
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But I, as I say, I just can't imagine who would want to do that to their resume, to, to be the
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person who finally, um, the next Michael Ignatieff. I mean, that's no one, that's not anything to aspire
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to. You know, there's obviously ambitious people in the party and there's been a lot of talk of
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Chrystia Freeland. Some people see her as a savior. I don't know why. I don't know why either. Um,
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like I, I, I, she's a, she's a very intelligent, accomplished person, but I don't, I don't think
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she's a very good politician. No. So I don't see her translating to retail politics on a national
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level when she speaks to adults, like she's, uh, reading a bedtime story. Well, that's right.
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And she's never had to, she's never contested it. She's never even contested a tough riding,
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right? Which is more than less than you can say about Justin Trudeau. I mean, Trudeau went into a
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tough riding and, and, and paid his dues in that respect because the party wasn't willing to lay
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out the, the, um, sort of the red carpet for him, which was in hindsight, probably a pretty good
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instinct. I mean, I always go back, like, you remember when, before Justin Trudeau took over
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and they were in the, in the, in the dumps and they had however many ridiculous number of seats
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and they were like, well, we're going to, we're going to renew, we're going to have a new Kingston
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conference. We're going to get all of these smart people together and we're going to decide what
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the liberal party of Canada really stands for. Oh, Justin's in, forget it. It's done. It's done.
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We're going to win. We're going to win. We're going to win. That's what we want. That's what
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we like. We like winning. And Justin Trudeau is going to win for us. And when he leaves,
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they're going to be just as untethered from any kind of, you know, what is this party?
00:20:12.520
What is it? But I think someone like Frankie Bubbles, uh, or industry minister, is that what he is now?
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Um, Francois-Philippe Champagne, of course, I'm talking about it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see.
00:20:24.440
Yeah. Yeah. He's more of an old fashioned business liberal. I'm not going to call him a blue liberal
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because I don't think he is, but he, but he's a business oriented liberal. Uh, I don't know that
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the party would accept a guy like that now. It's, you know, has the party changed and morphed? Do they
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expect that you're just going to, without thinking, adopt the latest cause and change your Twitter
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avatar, uh, to reflect that you're now with the current thing? Well, I feel like that wave may be
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kind of cresting. I don't know. Like in terms of what people, I hate, I hate the word woke, but it does
00:21:00.760
paint a picture of, of what we're talking about here. I feel like that's that, that horrible sort of
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performative Twitter garbage that, that Trudeau and his, his gang are so dedicated to. Um, I feel
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like that's less of a thing. I'm not, I don't know. It's just, it's just a feeling. Like I feel like
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people just aren't buying that anymore. And I think Champagne would be, is, would be an interesting
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choice quite apart from, you know, where, whether he's blue or red or, or whether the party would
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accept it. But to me, that's like, he's boring. That's kind of almost what I would want if I was
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liberal. Like, I don't want another cult of personality. I don't want, I want like a manager
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and someone that voters might just say, well, you know, maybe they don't like Pierre Polyev,
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but they, they couldn't stand Justin Trudeau. And here's this relatively inoffensive guy in a suit,
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uh, and regular socks, uh, who doesn't tweet that often. And maybe that's what, but I don't know.
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I mean, we're, I'm, we're just stabbing in the, I'm just stabbing in the dark here and I don't even
00:22:07.980
have any skin in the game. You mentioned the socks thing and I laughed. And of course, um,
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it's funny that liberals now get angry when, uh, they, uh, you know, somebody brings up socks,
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but that was something that they used for their branding to start with. And then when it,
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you know, started to be the butt of jokes, then they became now, now we, we don't want to talk
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about socks anymore. Yeah. Well, I mean, look, you look back at, at the early days of Trudeau,
00:22:37.980
and you look at some of the things that were written about him and how he would, you know,
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rescue the new world order from, I mean, it's just, what the hell, like, what were people thinking?
00:22:47.180
You know, I looked at the guy and saw just, just, I don't want to be too insulting about it,
00:22:52.780
but like just a regular politician, average politician with a famous last name, like why
00:23:00.140
anyone thought that this guy, when then you listen to him talk with his, you know, this weird,
00:23:06.460
this mixture of sort of old time religion, like peacekeeping and, and, uh,
00:23:11.660
which we never got back, which we never, well, we went to Mali for like a year and then scampered out
00:23:16.860
of their UN very small operation with a very small operation. And the UN was like, could you please
00:23:21.180
stay? And we're like, no, no, no, no, no, this is dangerous here. We don't want, yeah. Whoa, whoa.
00:23:26.860
Like that's the, don't you understand the reason we're into peacekeeping is because we don't want
00:23:31.100
to like put ourselves in danger. Like this is, this is, this has always been the scan. Um,
00:23:37.900
and you know, it's, he's sort of, when you look back at the beginning, like he's talking about whipping out
00:23:41.740
your CS CF 18s, you know, he's against, he did admiring China, just, he said all this bizarre
00:23:49.020
stuff and it just, no one noticed. And to me, I mean, I've written a few times over the years,
00:23:54.220
just like, he's weak, like he's a weird guy. Like he, he, he has weird instincts and he says strange
00:24:00.940
things. And for a while people just applauded. And now I don't know how you get that back.
00:24:08.300
Right. Like there's no, you know, Stephen Harper was, was, uh, disliked, um, by a lot of people in
00:24:15.580
the same way Trudeau was, but he didn't, it, people weren't, people were never crazy about
00:24:21.500
Stephen Harper. There was no Harper mania. Um, there was Trudeau mania. He can't get, get that back.
00:24:28.460
It's just, I don't understand. I, I don't know. And that's why I guess I sort of think maybe a new
00:24:33.660
leader is the only path because how can they, what's going to happen over the next two years?
00:24:39.100
I guess anything could happen over the next two years, but I don't see what,
00:24:41.740
what could possibly rescue them. Um, you know, unless something horrible happens to the opposition,
00:24:48.220
it's, it's, it's a, it's an incredible situation, but we have to realize it is only just a couple of
00:24:51.740
weeks. Um, you know, in a year, some horrible other thing might've happened.
00:24:57.660
Yeah. Well, I mean, six, six months of polling have shown steady growth conservatives. Yes.
00:25:02.460
It's, I'd like to point out voters are fickle and things can change and we're a ways off. Uh,
00:25:07.820
let's take a break here. And when we come back, I want to ask you what Trudeau's legacy, you know,
00:25:13.580
if he leaves now where he's defeated in the next election or what have you,
00:25:17.660
does he have a solid legislative or managerial record that he can point to? And we'll kick around a
00:25:25.260
little bit about what PolyEv has to do to, to try and win more when we're, uh, more when we're back.
00:25:37.180
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00:26:44.620
So let's say Justin Trudeau does decide to take the proverbial walk in the snow or the
00:26:50.060
surfboard to Tofino, whatever analogy you want to make. Let's say he does that.
00:26:55.740
What kind of legacy does he leave? I remember an editor before the 2019 election, I think it was
00:27:04.220
summer of 2018. They asked me to go through Trudeau's first three or so years and look at his
00:27:13.980
legislative record and see if he'd accomplished anything. And at that point, he had boosted the
00:27:23.180
Canada Child Benefit, which was started by Stephen Harper. They like to claim that they invented it.
00:27:28.940
He increased it. And he made pot legal. And that was really it. Has he done much since
00:27:38.220
the carbon tax? Obviously a signature policy that he's now killing.
00:27:41.900
Yeah. But what would you look at Trudeau's legacy and say that that's what he did?
00:27:47.740
Well, I think if you talk about the child benefit, I mean, I would say one of the things is poverty
00:27:53.420
rates fell and child poverty rates specifically fell quite dramatically under his watch. Now,
00:28:02.540
they were already historically low. They were already historically low. And I'm not saying that
00:28:06.460
Justin Trudeau waved a magic legislative wand and made that happen. But, you know, prime ministers
00:28:12.540
always take credit for good things that happen under their watch. And I think that's something
00:28:16.860
that he can legitimately point to. I think legalizing marijuana was a good idea, still a good idea.
00:28:22.300
I'm really surprised they did it, to be honest. That was one of the things that I saw that I thought
00:28:26.460
was going to, you know, I thought along with electoral reform, that was just going to fall off
00:28:30.780
because someone would just say, oh, it's too hard. You know, just like they always said,
00:28:34.300
Washington will never let us do it. And then we did it and Washington never made a peep about it,
00:28:39.660
really. So I think that's a, you know, it's not earth shattering. But I think it was an interesting
00:28:47.580
thing to do. Canada doesn't usually lead the way on things like that, unless the courts order us to.
00:28:52.700
Yeah, euthanasia or same-sex marriage, you know, the liberals take credit for that. But,
00:29:00.620
you know, until the courts said they had to do it, they were firmly against the same-sex marriage.
00:29:13.820
four years, the first four years anyway, pretty well. We'll see about the next four.
00:29:18.220
Yeah. Well, maybe. It's tough to deal with a president when he's in prison. But yeah, like I...
00:29:26.700
Well, I'll quibble with you on that. Because...
00:29:29.500
Sure, you could quibble with any of these things I'm saying.
00:29:31.420
Yeah. But let's talk about it. With Trump, they had to go into the NAFTA renegotiations.
00:29:40.940
And we had this... This document was put out on what our priorities were. It was like five priorities,
00:29:49.740
and it was gender and the environment and stuff like that. The Americans had a multi-page thing.
00:29:56.620
They're required by law to say what their trade priorities and goals are when they're negotiating
00:30:02.300
a deal like this. It was all about more access for their manufacturers, for their businesses,
00:30:07.500
for their services. And we were like, well, we'd like gender equality. Yeah. Well, okay, who's against that?
00:30:13.260
That's a solid quibble. Yeah. Yeah. No. Then why would you waste... Yeah, who's against that?
00:30:17.420
Why would you waste it? If I'm the American, it's like, fine, have gender...
00:30:20.140
Have gender equality. Are you actually negotiating on this? Like, fine, have it.
00:30:25.580
But we want something in return. We're going to take your auto industry.
00:30:28.940
Yeah. And we want access to your dairy industry. Fat chance. Yeah. No, any of these things could
00:30:35.660
be quibbled with. And, you know, that's not to say that another government would have done terribly
00:30:40.540
with Trump. But I just think, you know, there were a lot of predictions of doom is all I'm saying.
00:30:47.100
And I think they did a reasonable job on that. I think you could argue... I think it's definitely
00:30:52.300
out... It is definitely an open question. I think the things he did with the Senate...
00:30:58.620
I'm not quite sure what my verdict is on that in terms of all these independent senators and
00:31:03.660
kicking all the senators out of caucus. But I don't think it was... I don't think it was a
00:31:06.780
conspicuously bad idea. I think if you're going to have a Senate, more independence is better
00:31:11.980
than less independence in terms of actually getting sober second thought, as they always say.
00:31:23.500
Yeah. The Senate has changed dramatically over the last few decades. It's no longer the place where
00:31:29.660
people sit, sleep and drool while the place is in session. It hasn't been in a long time.
00:31:35.100
So, you know, all I would say is, if he's going to call it an independent Senate, I'd like him to
00:31:44.380
appoint a few people that don't think exactly like he does.
00:31:47.340
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's certainly... Yeah. I mean, a lot of the independent senators he appoints
00:31:56.780
could certainly be also called liberal senators. It was a little while ago, but one of the media
00:32:04.220
outlets did a look at the votes and found that the independent Senate caucus voted more with the
00:32:10.700
liberal government than the liberal senators did previously. Well, the problem, of course,
00:32:14.940
is that the Senate can go around and point out problems with legislation, and I think that's
00:32:21.740
useful if you're going to have a Senate, but then I also don't want them to ever vote down
00:32:26.940
legislation that they're not elected at the end of the day.
00:32:31.820
But if they send back a piece of legislation and say, here's problems to fix...
00:32:35.820
And they've done that on some good files. I mean, one random one that comes to mind was
00:32:41.980
when they legalized marijuana, they implemented these draconian new rules that now a cop can stop
00:32:48.060
you without any cause whatsoever and stick a breathalyzer in your mouth. You can theoretically
00:32:52.540
be arrested after... Like, they can come into your house and arrest you if someone says that they've
00:32:59.100
been... that you've been drinking. And these were just, you know, they were over the top pieces of
00:33:03.900
legislation and the Senate tore them apart. Then it passed anyways. I think the Senate's done good work
00:33:09.980
on euthanasia, although they recommended the mental illness thing. So I don't know. I don't think it's
00:33:22.380
I mean, you can't say at the end of it, though, that Canada's back. No, you certainly can't say
00:33:32.300
that Canada's back. I mean, on the world stage, I mean, his legacy is maybe...
00:33:40.140
is maybe Canadians finally realizing how useless we are. But okay. And I've heard that a lot recently,
00:33:46.380
especially after, you know, the India debacle, after the fact that we weren't included on the call
00:33:54.220
to deal with Israel in the war against Hamas in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks.
00:34:01.020
And people said, well, you know, we're not big anyway. And I think back to the 2008-2009 financial
00:34:08.060
crisis. Stephen Harper was the prime minister. Jim Flaherty was his finance minister. Future liberal
00:34:14.940
leader Mark Carney was the Bank of Canada governor. All three of them chaired different committees
00:34:21.740
at the G20 dealing with the global financial crisis. Canada was sought out for advice.
00:34:28.700
I can't see that happening ever at the current moment. No, I mean, we don't have anything to offer.
00:34:39.980
I did Trudeau's answer when a journalist asked him after the G20 in Delhi. He's like, well,
00:34:47.500
what did Canada offer to the communique? He literally said gendered language. I mean,
00:34:51.820
he offered that up. And again, there's nothing wrong with pushing for gender equality. But,
00:34:59.820
you know, no wonder we weren't on the call two weeks later dealing with Israel. Well,
00:35:04.700
should we call Canada? No, no, we're in war. We don't need gender. Yeah,
00:35:07.900
we don't need gendered language. I mean, that's, and that's one of the, they're so,
00:35:14.460
he and his brain trusts are so dedicated to that symbolic stuff that nothing concrete gets done. I feel
00:35:23.420
like, uh, to, to them, that is actually an accomplishment, uh, better language on gender.
00:35:32.140
The language is, is, is, is, you know, they always take the path of least resistance. I mean,
00:35:37.500
this is a man who admitted, admitted to, to presiding over an ongoing genocide and then
00:35:45.500
nothing happened and he didn't expect to have any consequences. He was just, yeah, all right,
00:35:49.260
fine. It's, I, I just think that it's, it's so performative, the whole government. And I think
00:35:57.980
it drags the good ministers in, in his cabinet down, uh, which is why I would want a new leader.
00:36:05.340
But again, who is it? I mean, it's okay. In the commercial break, our producer Andre got my ear
00:36:12.380
and was saying, is there really no one that can pull it back from the brain can point it out that
00:36:17.100
something you had said earlier that in 2014 or 2013, when she took over, Kathleen Wynne inherited
00:36:23.740
an Ontario liberal party that had been in power close to a decade and was looking rough and it was
00:36:31.420
a minority government. She turned around and got a majority government. Now, partly that was due to
00:36:39.260
the ineptitude of the people running Tim Hudak's campaign. Uh, they announced the policy to fire a
00:36:44.700
100,000 civil servants. I was about to say, was that the firing 100,000 civil servants election?
00:36:48.540
Yeah. Or was it the chain gangs election? That was the previous one. So, um, you know, sometimes
00:36:54.140
it's your, your opposition. Is there anybody that you see that could turn things around? I, I don't
00:37:00.220
think. What's Kathleen Wynne up to? No, I'm joking. I don't think Anita Anand, who's also been floated,
00:37:05.740
is someone who's got that retail politics. Well, that's it. If, if, if, if there's, if there's a Wynne
00:37:11.180
analogy, waiting in, waiting in the wings somewhere, she's a, she or he is a very, very good campaigner,
00:37:17.980
first and foremost. The people we've been talking about are, are, are not so far as we know. Um,
00:37:26.460
I mean, I, I, I, I am struggling here, uh, to think of anyone in the current
00:37:31.260
liberal caucus who has that sort of, uh, ability and who isn't also tied in people's minds to Trudeau.
00:37:43.900
Like who the, you know, they see Seamus or Reagan would be a silly idea, but you know,
00:37:48.300
you look at him and people see Justin Trudeau, I think, um, man, there might be someone out there.
00:37:54.620
Uh, Pierre Polyev is not going to do anything as stupid as Tim Hudak did. I don't think, but
00:38:04.700
he's got two years to step in it and, and politicians often do and politicians often do.
00:38:10.700
Yeah. Let me ask you about Polyev. Uh, you said earlier that you didn't think you would do that.
00:38:17.020
Well, I'm not sure if you said you, you weren't a fan of this, but I'll say that now.
00:38:21.180
No, you're not a fan. I, I, I, I haven't been in the past. I mean, I associate with him, you know,
00:38:27.740
when I think of him and I think certain people of a certain age, uh, think of him as that 20
00:38:32.860
something pit bull and I have some comments who would say anything, uh, you know, whatever the
00:38:40.140
most ridiculous talking point they wanted to put out there, they would have Pierre Polyev deliver and
00:38:44.460
he would do it with gusto. And, and it just, he just rubbed me the wrong way as an ultra partisan.
00:38:51.020
Um, person. I think now he, uh, he talks differently. Um, he chews apples while he talks.
00:38:59.260
He chews apple. I mean, that was a remarkably effective now, obviously liberals saw that and
00:39:04.140
seethed with hatred, but I mean, as someone who has not been a fan of him like that, I was like,
00:39:10.060
see, that's a natural unscripted, uh, yeah, it's, it's combative, but rightfully combative.
00:39:19.420
Well, the, the journalist showed up and was asking them loaded questions that I, you and
00:39:25.340
I have been in the business for a long time. I don't know about you, but I've asked dumb
00:39:29.500
questions. My editors have sent me with, and I learned quickly not to do that. I remember
00:39:33.500
Lucien Bouchard, Quebec premier making me feel an inch tall because I asked a ridiculous loaded
00:39:40.140
question that my editor had sent. And I said, I'm never doing that again. I'm going to learn
00:39:45.340
this guy. He's experienced. I think he is the editor. Oh yeah. Yeah. He's the sort
00:39:50.140
of sole proprietor, I think almost of this, uh, and was just asking the most loaded questions.
00:39:54.860
So yeah, of course, rightfully combative. Yeah. And, and it's not the first time, um,
00:39:59.740
that Polly have his face that so sort of like, well, given that, you know, given that you're
00:40:03.980
like Donald Trump, what do you think was just like, there's nobody in Canadian politics.
00:40:10.860
Very few people in American politics or, or anything like Donald Trump. Um,
00:40:15.340
um, yeah, I, I think he has impressed me just with being able to take it, finding another register,
00:40:22.780
I think just sounding more serious. He's clearly, you know, it doesn't matter. Uh, uh, what I think,
00:40:31.020
I live in Toronto center. Um, I, but I think, you know, he's with me both and our votes, our votes
00:40:36.780
don't count for a whole lot, right? He's certainly, um, I mean, the numbers of, uh, younger voters
00:40:43.660
supporting him still, every time I see it just boggles, it doesn't boggle my mind. I understand
00:40:49.340
completely. He's talking about housing and that's the number one issue for, um, for younger Canadians,
00:40:55.660
but it's, it's boggling liberals minds clearly that, that this is, that this is working, but I think it's,
00:41:03.020
it's, it's, it's, it's impressive because it's especially impressive because he, he had so many
00:41:07.260
negatives baked in. Like if you looked at, I can't remember who did this polling, but there was
00:41:12.860
someone compared like how many people had firm opinions about Aaron O'Toole when he took over
00:41:19.580
and Andrew Scheer, when he took over and Stephen Harper, when he took over and here, I've had was
00:41:24.780
far more known than any of them were at the time that he took over the party and far more negatively
00:41:31.660
known. And he's, he's worked, uh, hard to, to switch that. And it's, it's clearly worked. People may not
00:41:40.460
love him, but they're clearly willing to vote for him. And that's all that matters.
00:41:44.620
Well, let, let me give you some numbers because one of the things that we kept hearing was women
00:41:48.860
especially don't like. That's another one. Yeah. Right now there's Leger poll that I mentioned
00:41:53.180
earlier that has them at 40% nationally and leading in every single region except Quebec, um,
00:42:02.620
and leading handily in every single region except Quebec. Well, 36% of women say they would vote for,
00:42:11.980
uh, Pierre Polyev and the conservatives compared to 27% for Trudeau and the liberals and 21% for
00:42:19.740
the NDP. Awesome. Poor NDP. 18 to 34. The liberals are in third. It's 38% for the conservatives, 26%
00:42:29.180
for the NDP, 21% for the liberals. And, uh, the numbers don't get any better for the Trudeau liberals.
00:42:37.580
Um, you know, they're, they're down to their core support of, uh, of women 55 plus. Yeah. Retired civil servants,
00:42:45.420
you know, Alice who used to work at the hospital and, uh, Kim, the, uh, retired teacher. That's,
00:42:51.260
that's their voting base at this point. Well, they had a, they had a, they put an ad on Twitter,
00:42:55.260
I think last week where it was sort of, it was, it was going after Stephen Harper for, uh, for raising
00:43:03.500
the retirement age. And it's like, we'll, and they're like, we'll always have your back because
00:43:07.500
we lowered it. And it's like, but everyone, that's what was a dumb thing to do. Like Stephen
00:43:12.380
Harper took a bullet for future governments in doing that. Right. It was, it was a politically
00:43:19.020
unpopular thing to do, but a smart thing to do. And then the liberals undid it. Now they're trying
00:43:23.820
to boast about it. Well, as you say, if you're, if, if you're 62, uh, and you're looking to retire,
00:43:31.100
which is sort of the core base, the liberals core base now, that's good news. But what are other
00:43:37.100
people saying? I mean, young people look at that. They know they're not retiring at 65.
00:43:41.660
Uh, I mean, they just don't seem to know they seem over 50 and I don't see myself retiring.
00:43:46.940
No, indeed. Yeah. And it's like, I mean, there's, there's always people joke. It's become a joke,
00:43:52.140
right? Like how liberals think that they have communications problems, right? There was,
00:43:57.020
it becomes sort of a running joke. Like, no, you don't have communications problems. You have
00:44:01.100
governing problems, but they also have communications problems. Like they can't keep,
00:44:06.140
it's kind of the point where they can't keep a story straight. Like with this, with this climate,
00:44:09.660
with the carbon tax announcement, you had, if you look, if you look at a Goody Hutchings
00:44:15.660
Twitter account, this is the minister for rural economic development. You'll see, she's got one
00:44:20.540
tweet and it sort of says, um, we're, you know, raising, we're, we're making life easier for people
00:44:26.300
nationwide. This isn't a regional announcement. And then the tweet one below
00:44:30.780
says we're making life more affordable in Atlantic Canada with this announcement,
00:44:34.780
which everyone knows exactly what they're doing, but you're not supposed to say it out loud.
00:44:38.860
I mean, they just, I don't know. Like it almost looks sometimes like they've given up.
00:44:43.980
So do you think Canadians are willing to, I mean, right now the polls say, yeah,
00:44:50.060
they would back the conservatives, but as we've discussed, election could be as much as two years
00:44:55.500
away. Um, and the liberals are turning now and they're attacking them and saying, oh, uh, these
00:45:02.940
guys will cut or on Fran say the other day, uh, one of the ministers was jump, jump, jump. She said in
00:45:09.340
the, uh, in the house of commons, you've got them going after the fact that probably have this saying,
00:45:15.420
common sense conservatives. And they're saying, well, we saw what happened when there were
00:45:19.660
common sense conservatives in Ontario. You had Walker did. No, that was, you know,
00:45:23.820
two guys that drank a lot on a Friday afternoon and didn't do their job.
00:45:26.700
Also, it was 25 years ago. I mean, or longer, no longer. Like, like who, I mean, I'm picturing
00:45:33.260
a 28 year old voter saying like, who the hell's Mike Harris? Like, why are you talking about this?
00:45:39.020
Who's Stephen Harper for that matter for some of these voters? I mean, they, they just, yeah. Like,
00:45:44.140
like that stuff. I mean, that's just, you know, that's old time liberal religion, right? You just
00:45:48.460
show a picture of Mike Harris and everyone's like, Whoa, where do I vote? Where do I vote? Um,
00:45:56.220
yeah. Do these boogeymen work though with, with abortion? Well, they have worked, but, but will they
00:46:01.820
work this time? I mean, you look at their, uh, their latest move on the gun ban issue. They said on
00:46:08.860
Yeah. Well, there's another example of them. Yeah.
00:46:10.780
May 1st, 2020, they announced they're going to ban all these guns and they'll develop a buyback
00:46:15.180
program. It's, you know, as we record today, it's November 2nd, 2023. They haven't bought back a
00:46:22.860
single gun. They don't have a plan to buy back any guns because they don't know how to do it. Yeah.
00:46:27.740
And they've extended the exemption until October 30th, 2025. So five and a half years after they said
00:46:36.140
these guns are too dangerous to exist, we must, you know, confiscate them. Yeah.
00:46:41.020
The announcement is the policy. Again, they're still going to be in the basements and gun safes
00:46:44.780
of your neighbors. And, and I mean, I think, I mean, probably that was interesting, right?
00:46:49.820
Because every now and again, you see them try to sort of, or you see liberals. I'm not, I'm not sure
00:46:54.700
about the liberal. I'm trying to think if I've seen the liberal party go after him as sort of a
00:46:59.980
social conservative because he really isn't. No, like that's the problem, right? I mean,
00:47:05.740
Andrew Scheer was probably the most socially conservative, outwardly socially conservative
00:47:09.980
leader we've seen in federal politics recently since stock day. This is stock with it. Yeah,
00:47:16.220
that's true. Um, like, I, I just, I don't think there's anything there. Like if, if, you know,
00:47:23.580
he gave a, uh, uh, a really interesting interview, it was in French, not by accident, uh, about how he
00:47:30.300
changed his mind on same sex marriage. Um, but I mean, who can't, who's voting on that? Exactly.
00:47:36.780
It's done. It's, it's, it's a thing that like, um, and, and there's nobody voting for the conservatives
00:47:45.180
to have them reverse same sex marriage. If, if, if that's what you're voting on, you haven't voted for
00:47:51.100
the conservatives in 20 years or you're a glutton for punishment, which frankly, a lot of Canadian
00:47:55.660
social conservatives seem to be, um, in terms of supporting the conservatives and they never get
00:48:01.820
anything. I think that the most that they would say about Stephen Harper is he didn't make things worse.
00:48:08.860
Yeah. Well, and that's not, I mean, you know, that's part of the reason people vote conservative
00:48:13.260
is to just stop, you know, uh, a conservative government might be seen not to have done that
00:48:20.620
many things, but that's kind of part of being conservative is conserving, uh, the good things
00:48:27.420
you have and, and not messing around with them. Um, so Polly, Polly, does, does he keep going or does
00:48:37.660
he step in it? It's, it's, it's tough, right? Two years trying to maintain that, uh,
00:48:45.980
uh, trying to maintain where he's at. I don't think I, I seem to have a really good read on,
00:48:56.380
on what people care about and the, the things that are working for them, especially housing are not
00:49:03.580
going to get any better in the next two years. They're going to get worse. I mean, you look at
00:49:08.060
the number of housing starts we need to solve the problem versus the number of, and the housing
00:49:12.700
starts going down. I mean, it's, it's, it's talk to the developer, brutal talk to the developers,
00:49:19.500
especially the ones getting beaten up as, um, uh, you know, just, uh, jealous or, uh, greedy, um,
00:49:26.700
kleptocrats in Ontario. They'll tell you it's the, uh, the, the interest rates are, are killing the
00:49:32.940
ability of people to buy the ability of them to build. Um, and so you keep blaming that back on
00:49:39.020
Justin Trudeau. I, I would say that if, uh, Trudeau's numbers were better, I think he would
00:49:44.940
have tried to go to the polls this fall, engineer his own defeat, come up with a reason to call an
00:49:50.700
election. But if the numbers keep looking like this, I don't, uh, you know, I think you'll try
00:49:55.420
and drag it out, uh, you know, uh, until he's forced to go to an election because there's no upside at
00:50:01.820
the moment. Well, yeah. I mean, I, I can't imagine the party would be too happy with them calling
00:50:06.540
election right now. I mean, you're in the twenties, buddy. Yeah. Like what? Um, and
00:50:14.940
yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's, it's going to be, I just, I don't know why, I don't know why he
00:50:21.660
wants to be, I mean, I guess what, why does anyone want to be prime minister? They're ambitious.
00:50:25.900
They have, but I mean, he's been prime minister for eight years and, and he's just spinning his wheels.
00:50:31.580
He can walk away at this point and say, I had a good run. He did have a good run. And I mean,
00:50:37.740
I don't know why, you know, I'm not going to bring up his family into it, but I mean, you know,
00:50:43.500
it must be pretty, pretty exhausting getting beaten up day after day after day in the press
00:50:49.980
and you've got other things to worry about in your life. Um, but I don't know. I mean, I, I, I can't
00:50:56.380
put myself in the, in the, in the mind of a prime minister because God knows the things I would
00:51:02.140
have had to do to get there. Well, Chris, thanks for coming in. Thank you. Great first, uh, appearance
00:51:09.820
on full comment. I hope the, uh, the audience liked it. They can let us know. They can drop us a line
00:51:14.380
and, uh, and argue with us in the comment section, but, uh, please everyone, if you enjoyed the conversation,
00:51:19.580
make sure you're, you're sharing this full comment is a post media podcast. My name is Brian Lilly,
00:51:24.460
your host. This episode was produced by Andre crew with theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin
00:51:30.140
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