Full Comment - January 26, 2026


Fighting with Trump is a Liberal strategy for a fresh election


Episode Stats


Length

53 minutes

Words per minute

176.10742

Word count

9,356

Sentence count

648

Harmful content

Misogyny

6

sentences flagged

Hate speech

19

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Shots fired. It happened in Davos last week at the World Economic Forum. A war of words erupts between Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump. And it s still going.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:57.000 Shots fired.
00:00:58.000 It happened in Davos last week at the World Economic Forum.
00:01:01.000 A war of words erupting between Prime Minister Mark Carney
00:01:04.000 and U.S. President Donald Trump.
00:01:06.000 And it's still going.
00:01:07.000 Hello and welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.
00:01:09.000 I'm Brian Lilly, your host.
00:01:11.000 Normally, speeches at Davos don't make news,
00:01:13.000 except for those people who are obsessed with the WEF
00:01:16.000 or people laughing over the silliness of some of the things said on those stages.
00:01:21.000 When Mark Carney took the stage last Tuesday,
00:01:24.000 he delivered a speech applauded around the world
00:01:27.000 because it took direct aim at Donald Trump and the United States,
00:01:30.000 even if he didn't name them.
00:01:32.000 We know the old order is not coming back.
00:01:35.000 We shouldn't mourn it.
00:01:37.000 Nostalgia is not a strategy.
00:01:40.000 But we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just.
00:01:47.000 This is the task of the middle powers. 1.00
00:01:50.000 The countries that have the most to lose from a world of fortresses
00:01:54.000 and the most to gain from genuine cooperation.
00:01:58.000 The powerful have their power.
00:02:01.000 We have something too.
00:02:03.000 The capacity to stop pretending.
00:02:06.000 To name reality.
00:02:08.000 To build our strength at home.
00:02:09.000 And to act together.
00:02:11.000 Your mileage may vary.
00:02:13.000 I wasn't a fan of the speech.
00:02:14.000 I find Carney's pattern of fawning over Trump in person
00:02:17.000 and sniping at the American president
00:02:19.000 when he's in front of other world leaders to be juvenile and tiresome.
00:02:23.000 Pick a lane.
00:02:24.000 Trump clearly saw or heard Carney's speech.
00:02:26.000 And the next day, in response,
00:02:28.000 Trump paused while talking about the need to acquire Greenland for the Golden Dome
00:02:33.000 to take his own shots at Carney.
00:02:35.000 And unlike Carney's veiled comments about Trump,
00:02:38.000 Trump used Carney's name.
00:02:40.000 His first name.
00:02:41.000 We're building a Golden Dome
00:02:43.000 that's going to, just by its very nature,
00:02:47.000 going to be defending Canada.
00:02:50.000 Canada gets a lot of freebies from us, by the way.
00:02:53.000 They should be grateful also, but they're not.
00:02:55.000 I watched your Prime Minister yesterday.
00:02:57.000 He wasn't so grateful.
00:02:59.000 But they should be grateful to us.
00:03:01.000 Canada.
00:03:02.000 Canada lives because of the United States. 0.75
00:03:05.000 Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.
00:03:08.000 That, of course, led to Carney giving a further response.
00:03:11.000 But Canada doesn't live because of the United States.
00:03:16.000 Canada thrives because we are Canadian.
00:03:21.000 There have been several comments from cabinet members in both governments
00:03:26.000 over the past several days, lots of pundits weighing in,
00:03:29.000 and no end of thought to the local coffee shop.
00:03:31.000 And after we recorded this last Friday,
00:03:34.000 the American president spent the weekend on Truth Social
00:03:37.000 talking about Canada, China taking over Canada,
00:03:40.000 and the fact that he would put 100% tariffs on our country
00:03:44.000 if we sought a free trade agreement with China,
00:03:47.000 something the Carney government made clear they're not looking to do.
00:03:51.000 So, as I said, prior to those comments, I was discussing this with Stuart Thompson,
00:03:56.000 Parliamentary Bureau Chief at National Post,
00:03:58.000 and National Post columnist Tasha Curidan.
00:04:01.000 They are the duo behind the political hack newsletter.
00:04:04.000 All right.
00:04:05.000 So, Stuart, Tasha, I guess this latest war, political war,
00:04:08.000 started with Mark Carney in Davos, snowballed from there.
00:04:11.000 But this was one crazy week, wasn't it?
00:04:13.000 I think it is.
00:04:14.000 And if you are Mark Carney and you were thinking about
00:04:18.000 maybe having to go to the polls sometime in the near future,
00:04:21.000 I think actually a war of words with Donald Trump
00:04:24.000 is the kind of thing you need in your life right now, right?
00:04:26.000 So, I'm not going to say that Mark Carney did that speech purely for domestic politics reasons,
00:04:33.000 but there is certainly a happy coincidence there that Donald Trump is mad.
00:04:38.000 He's tweeting about us at nine o'clock at night.
00:04:41.000 And that's kind of a throwback to the time when that was really benefiting Mark Carney.
00:04:46.000 So, I think that Donald Trump enjoys this.
00:04:49.000 I think Mark Carney enjoys this.
00:04:51.000 And I think if you're Pierre Polyev, you're probably thinking, well, here we go again.
00:04:56.000 Well, and if you're a senior in Victoria, you're thinking about,
00:04:59.000 how do I get my hands on a rifle to go and defend Greenland?
00:05:02.000 Because I'm sure you all saw the letters to the editor.
00:05:06.000 I'm glad that you pointed that out, Stuart, about how, you know,
00:05:09.000 potentially an early trip to the polls.
00:05:12.000 Tasha, I got this text from the Liberal Party.
00:05:15.000 Together, we're choosing to build a future that is better, stronger and more just.
00:05:19.000 Watch Mark Carney's speech, and then a link in the text message,
00:05:23.000 and then add your name if you agree, and a place for me to go and give them all my contact data.
00:05:29.000 Seems like a campaign already, no?
00:05:32.000 Well, actually, I felt that Carney's speech in Quebec City was more of a campaign speech
00:05:38.000 than what he did in Davos.
00:05:40.000 Davos to me was...
00:05:42.000 Land soaked in blood?
00:05:44.000 No, Davos to me was setting the record straight and telling it as it is,
00:05:49.000 which is speaking what other people were not saying, which is the world order has changed,
00:05:53.000 and there's no going back, and it's unpredictable.
00:05:56.000 And, you know, thanks to...
00:05:58.000 He shall not be named, i.e. Donald Trump.
00:06:01.000 And it was done for a number of reasons.
00:06:06.000 Potentially also for a domestic audience, don't disagree.
00:06:09.000 But I think that the speech, the follow-up to it, that was where I started to say,
00:06:13.000 huh, the Quebec City, you know, talking about the shared values,
00:06:17.000 and not only that, but going in this long litany of liberal accomplishments, in his view,
00:06:23.000 and what the liberals intend to do going forward.
00:06:25.000 So that was really, to me, setting groundwork for a potential campaign.
00:06:30.000 And I think that, look, if Carney doesn't get a majority with floor-crossers, 1.00
00:06:35.000 he would be well-positioned to do exactly this,
00:06:39.000 go to the polls before the Kuzma negotiation deadline comes up,
00:06:42.000 because if he doesn't have a deal, then, well, that will be really hard to win at that point.
00:06:46.000 So I think he's got one of two paths here, if he wants to get a majority government.
00:06:50.000 And I think he's planning for both.
00:06:54.000 I've been talking to liberals who have said that if they don't get a majority by floor-crossers, 0.97
00:07:01.000 that yes, a spring election is definitely a possibility.
00:07:05.000 And then listening to that, and of course, it being in Quebec City,
00:07:11.000 he opened mostly in French, and it was very nationalistic.
00:07:17.000 He was talking about the Plains of Abraham.
00:07:19.000 He was talking about land soaked in blood.
00:07:21.000 He was talking about Wolf and Montcalm,
00:07:23.000 about the choices that we made to be a separate country.
00:07:28.000 This seemed very much campaign-like.
00:07:31.000 And my view of foreign speeches by prime ministers is that they are as much,
00:07:39.000 or if not more, about the domestic audience than they are the foreign one,
00:07:44.000 because we pay more attention when prime ministers give a speech on foreign soil
00:07:48.000 than when they give them at home.
00:07:50.000 When they give a speech at home, it's like, well, okay.
00:07:52.000 Oh, you're off in another country saying something.
00:07:55.000 I guess we should pay attention.
00:07:56.000 It's important now.
00:07:58.000 And so this was setting up the me versus Trump vision for a campaign.
00:08:09.000 If it comes.
00:08:10.000 It may not come.
00:08:11.000 But if it comes, in my view, that's what he was doing.
00:08:14.000 Can I just say, as sort of a side story to this,
00:08:18.000 it was nice to hear a prime minister talk about our history,
00:08:20.000 like he wasn't embarrassed about it.
00:08:22.000 So hopefully that era is over.
00:08:26.000 I'll agree with you on that.
00:08:29.000 I was just walking the plane to Abraham a few months ago.
00:08:32.000 It was great.
00:08:33.000 And I think the other thing to take note of in that speech is the Canadian values stuff.
00:08:38.000 And you can just see it on campaign slogans, you know, a Canadian values election.
00:08:43.000 Like, I do think that when you're in a minority parliament,
00:08:47.000 you probably want to be ready no matter what.
00:08:49.000 And that would be smart for the liberals, even if they weren't planning to go sometime soon.
00:08:55.000 And I do wonder if maybe Polyev's rhetoric has maybe fallen into a trap a little bit here,
00:09:01.000 because Carney got those floor crossers. 1.00
00:09:03.000 And I think Polyev said what was on the minds of conservatives,
00:09:07.000 which is that this feels like an illegitimate way to get a majority or even to push towards a majority.
00:09:14.000 And if you're Carney, you could say, look, the opposition leader says that what we're doing is illegitimate.
00:09:22.000 He says we need to go to the polls and ask voters if we deserve this majority.
00:09:26.000 So we're going to listen to what he says and we're going to do that.
00:09:28.000 So I wonder if you're Mark Carney, the one thing you need is that flimsy pretense for why you're going to the polls.
00:09:34.000 You could use the Doug Ford excuse, which is that I need this to battle Donald Trump.
00:09:39.000 Somehow this will help me battle Donald Trump.
00:09:41.000 But if you're Mark Carney, you can also use that justification that Polyev has already given him, too.
00:09:48.000 Tasha, in my view, they don't need a justification to go to the polls because they always invent one.
00:09:53.000 That's, you know, what's my old line about politicians?
00:09:58.000 You don't blame the scorpion for staining you.
00:10:00.000 It's what they do.
00:10:01.000 They find a reason to go to the polls.
00:10:03.000 Justin Trudeau, in one of his elections, I think it was 2021, spent months blocking everything from going through parliament himself and then turned around and said, parliament's dysfunctional.
00:10:16.000 I need to go to the polls.
00:10:18.000 Well, you're the one blocking everything from your own government.
00:10:21.000 He won still.
00:10:22.000 It didn't matter.
00:10:23.000 People still said yes.
00:10:25.000 Yeah, I think that Carney, though, I do take Stewart's point.
00:10:31.000 It is a convenient way to address that conservative objection, which not just conservatives have made.
00:10:38.000 Others have made, too, that minority just by floor crossing is not as legitimate as a minority won at the ballot box.
00:10:45.000 So he does.
00:10:46.000 He would address that.
00:10:48.000 I think what he's setting up, though, if he's setting up for an election is sort of an election of unprecedented times, i.e. things have changed.
00:10:58.000 The U.S. now is really anti us.
00:11:00.000 And I think also the other piece in here is the Alberta separation referendum.
00:11:06.000 That is going to be a major test of Canadian unity.
00:11:10.000 And we're seeing Albertans line up to sign petitions.
00:11:12.000 But we're also seeing U.S. interference online.
00:11:16.000 And it's going to amp up.
00:11:17.000 You can believe it in this.
00:11:19.000 This is a perfect foil situation for Carney.
00:11:22.000 It's coming this spring.
00:11:23.000 And it puts Polyev in a real box because both men are Albertan, ironically.
00:11:28.000 But Polyev is elected in Alberta.
00:11:31.000 He's going to have to face a conservative electorate.
00:11:33.000 UCP, 60% of them think that separation is a nice idea.
00:11:37.000 So it's going to be really tricky for him.
00:11:40.000 So all these winds are blowing at the same time.
00:11:42.000 And Carney's like just surfing them right now and thinking, ah, great time to have an election.
00:11:47.000 I'll be the only one standing up for Canada.
00:11:49.000 I didn't think that they would be able to turn a potential spring election, which is what we're talking about now, into another referendum on Donald Trump again.
00:12:03.000 Somehow they've been able to.
00:12:06.000 Never underestimate Donald Trump.
00:12:08.000 Well, I think it's a combination.
00:12:10.000 And I'd like to hear from both of you.
00:12:12.000 I think it's a combination of Carney and Trump.
00:12:17.000 And this war of words that kicked off in Davos started with Carney.
00:12:24.000 He had just come from China and Qatar and then shows up at Davos after praising leaders in both China and Qatar is saying that the United States is the big problem in the world.
00:12:42.000 Which doesn't have the same ring when you've just been saying how great a leader President Xi is.
00:12:49.000 It doesn't have the same ring when you're like, well, we need to have a strategic partnership with China.
00:12:54.000 The guys that kidnapped our own people for two years.
00:12:57.000 But there's an awful lot of the Canadian public just so angry about the United States and Donald Trump that they are all in on this.
00:13:07.000 Yeah, I said earlier that, you know, it may have been a deliberate provocation from Carney, but I do also think I think it was.
00:13:18.000 Yeah. And so there is this world we now live in where if Trump says something, you know, hostile to Canada or something we just profoundly disagree with, the Greenland stuff is a good instance of this.
00:13:30.000 I think every world leader has this question of, do I go out there and say what I think and what is the position of my country and risk some tariff or something that would never happen if I didn't do that?
00:13:43.000 Do we actually stand on these principles? Is it actually worth it to go out and say this?
00:13:48.000 It probably doesn't make any difference in the long run.
00:13:51.000 And I think that that is a hard thing to do for four years is to sort of hide and try to just cower under some coats and hope it all goes away.
00:14:01.000 So I think Carney was kind of getting at this big question for the middle powers and his solution is for them to band together.
00:14:10.000 So I think the substance of his speech was it wasn't delusional.
00:14:17.000 It wasn't something outside of the reality that Canada lives in.
00:14:20.000 And I think he was trying to toe the line of not angering Trump too much because he didn't mention his name.
00:14:26.000 He just kind of left it quite clear that that's who he was talking about, because we know that Trump probably has a Google alert for his name.
00:14:33.000 And maybe you can avoid that.
00:14:35.000 Don't you?
00:14:36.000 Of course, I'm a journalist.
00:14:38.000 We understand vanity in this industry.
00:14:42.000 So I don't for mine, by the way.
00:14:45.000 I do understand the question that all these middle powers are facing.
00:14:49.000 And I think probably every Canadian has a different line of, you know, are we really going to accept a 10% tariff on Canada just because Carney felt like he had to speak up to Donald Trump?
00:14:59.000 I think most of us would say, just keep your mouth shut.
00:15:01.000 And I think that's probably the line he's dealing with right now.
00:15:04.000 And then there is that incentive for Carney, which is always going to run against the interests of Canadians, which is that when Trump's mad at him, it helps him out electorally.
00:15:15.000 So there's a lot to untangle here.
00:15:17.000 So, Tasha, as our resident Carney whisperer, help me understand then, he didn't say much about Venezuela and going in and arresting Maduro, which I actually think was a good thing.
00:15:32.000 He didn't say much about Greenland ahead of time.
00:15:37.000 So why did he do this Vaclav Havel, power of the powerless, America is the evil hegemon speech at Davos?
00:15:50.000 Well, I think that I disagree that it was necessarily just Carney who started this.
00:15:56.080 I think Carney seized a moment.
00:15:58.100 Over the weekend, a couple of things happened.
00:16:00.260 First of all, there was a lot of activity online calling for Alberta slash Canada, the 51st state.
00:16:08.460 That amped up over the weekend.
00:16:10.220 Steve Bannon was out there on a tear about Canada.
00:16:12.920 So there was already this conversation brewing about Canada, again, in that context, which we know stirs nationalist sentiments here.
00:16:22.380 And then Donald Trump sent out his little missive about Greenland and the Peace Prize to the Prime Minister of Norway, saying that he was mad he didn't get the prize.
00:16:33.420 And this is tied into why he wants Greenland.
00:16:35.800 And I think that was a real jump the shark moment for a lot of people.
00:16:38.820 I mean, Trump says insane things a lot, but that one was, somehow it hit home because I think people realized that, you know what, no matter what we do, there's no point.
00:16:48.900 There's no point with this man because he will change his mind whenever he wants, do whatever he wants.
00:16:53.420 And it's about, it is about ego as opposed to anything really rational.
00:16:58.680 And yes, he's very much against China and, you know, that's a good thing holding the Chinese influence at bay and he's done some good things in the world. 0.99
00:17:05.160 But there's always a subtext of what's in it for me, even with Gaza. 0.95
00:17:08.680 I mean, look at the, you know, the Trump-Gaza plans that Jared Kushner unveiled at, in Davos, giant towers looming over Gaza that presumably the Trump empire will build.
00:17:19.440 I mean, it's insane.
00:17:20.900 So, again, it's self-interest.
00:17:23.500 I agree with Howard Anglin.
00:17:24.860 They're ugly buildings.
00:17:25.780 They are ugly.
00:17:26.320 And the crazy thing is, the crazy thing is that, you know, this is presented as a legitimate, you know, action for this board of peace.
00:17:34.060 It's a board of grift.
00:17:35.120 That's all it is.
00:17:35.940 It's a great grift.
00:17:37.400 So, so I think at that moment, Carney felt probably very comfortable saying, you know what, this guy's nuts and there's no point.
00:17:44.040 And let's just band over over here and leave him alone.
00:17:46.540 I didn't see Carney's speech as an endorsement of China per se, I think.
00:17:50.960 And I hope it's not because I think that would be a mistake of relationship with them.
00:17:53.920 I think it's more the middle powers have got to get their act together. 0.99
00:17:57.080 And we as a country have to have more friends.
00:18:00.340 And those friends will be more reliable friends.
00:18:02.640 And he's right.
00:18:03.400 He's not wrong to say that. 1.00
00:18:05.920 Do you think he's right to say that China is a more reliable partner than the United States?
00:18:12.400 No, I said middle powers.
00:18:13.440 I didn't say China.
00:18:14.280 I didn't, I don't think, like I said.
00:18:15.780 No, but Carney was specifically asked about that.
00:18:18.460 Yes.
00:18:18.680 In Beijing.
00:18:19.560 Is the, is China more reliable and predictable partner for Canada than the United States?
00:18:28.100 And he didn't say yes directly, but he answered in a way that was a yes.
00:18:34.860 Well, Melanie Jolie said yes.
00:18:36.640 Melanie Jolie said it was.
00:18:37.820 She was the one foaming off about that. 0.51
00:18:39.600 I think that's why the New York Times asked the question is because she had already said that.
00:18:43.640 So I can't say, I don't think that, I mean, they're, are they more reliable?
00:18:48.160 Yes, they're more reliable in that we know they're bad intentions.
00:18:51.260 We do know.
00:18:52.240 And they're going to treat us, you know, in a way that, that smacks of elite capture and all this.
00:18:57.580 That we know that is actually, it's much more predictable to deal with China because we know what their game is. 0.99
00:19:02.140 With the U.S., we don't because it changes every day.
00:19:05.580 So in a sense, yeah, it's not wrong to say they're more reliable, but they're reliably bad.
00:19:09.940 Okay, I, I, I disagree, but I understand what you're saying.
00:19:16.520 Stuart, what are your thoughts on Carney saying that China's more predictable and reliable partner for Canada?
00:19:24.880 Yeah, and I don't think that was a mistake because we had a reporter on that plane.
00:19:29.560 The first thing that happened when they got to Beijing was actually Anita Anand got off the plane and said,
00:19:34.240 China's stable and predictable.
00:19:36.140 And then Melanie Jolie said it the next day.
00:19:38.000 And then Carney was asked about it and he said, yes, stable and predictable.
00:19:40.900 So, um, the question is, were, well, who was the audience of that statement?
00:19:46.940 Were they trying to say to the U.S., listen, if you guys could just get it together and be a little more stable, things would go a lot better.
00:19:55.540 Or were they just genuinely saying what they were encountering when they got to China?
00:19:59.420 Because I guess, you know, Tasha is right that we know what we're getting with China.
00:20:04.320 And I think when you make a deal there, nobody goes on Twitter and retracts it the next day.
00:20:09.620 And I think that's the kind of thing that drives diplomats nuts.
00:20:12.200 So, um, so I think there was definitely an intention behind those words because the same words were used by all these different ministers and then Carney, uh, on that trip.
00:20:23.480 So, you know, maybe they're just sort of crying into the wind and hoping to change how the U.S. governs itself.
00:20:29.940 Your, uh, your statement that, uh, we, we know what we're getting reminds me of what a friend said about Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow.
00:20:38.380 Um, well, we had John Tory as mayor and we thought we were getting a conservative and we got a communist, at least with Olivia Chow.
00:20:45.640 We know we're getting a communist, um, a bit of a, an overstretch on both of them, but you, you know, it, you know, something Tasha can relate to as a Toronto, right?
00:20:54.320 All right. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Greenland and, uh, whether the world was pulling out its hair unnecessarily over this, um, it, with claims of invasion and seniors taking up arms to go and defend it. More in moments.
00:21:13.620 This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?, where we unpack the biggest, weirdest, and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew and tell you what really happened.
00:21:24.860 Stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favorite episodes.
00:21:29.100 If you don't want to stick around, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What? everywhere you get podcasts.
00:21:35.360 A letter to the editor of the Globe and Mail said that, uh, well, as a 71-year-old, I'll go defend Greenland.
00:21:41.780 A letter to the editor in Postmedia's own Victoria Times columnist said, well, colonist, not columnist, uh, said,
00:21:48.540 stop the gun buyback program because we're going to need those to start militias to defend Canada.
00:21:56.460 Here's my thing, folks, is that we need to stop pulling our hair out about Donald Trump, listen to what he says, separate the noise from the signal, and figure out what he really wants.
00:22:09.840 Um, and we're not doing that.
00:22:13.580 I'd love to hear from both of you.
00:22:15.460 I, first off, I, I never thought that they were going to, um, invade Greenland.
00:22:21.320 I still don't think they're going to invade Canada, despite it was a Leger poll that said a third of Canadians, believe he will.
00:22:28.560 And, and yet, that was the talk for weeks, even after the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others had reported that Marco Rubio had briefed Congress that the plan was to try and purchase Greenland,
00:22:40.740 a purchase offer that has been made three or four times over the last 175 years.
00:22:46.060 Um, and, and yet, at Davos, before Davos, it was, should we send troops to Greenland?
00:22:53.180 Are we going to send troops to Greenland?
00:22:54.820 How many troops should we send to Greenland?
00:22:56.980 I think the tell that Carney never believed that was a real threat is that we still participated in the NORAD exercises with the Americans in Greenland.
00:23:07.100 Should we stop overreacting to everything Trump says and does, Stuart?
00:23:11.220 Um, well, it's, uh, I'll admit it is hard, especially when you're a journalist and you cover it for the news.
00:23:19.560 But I, I, I think the, the problem we have here is that Trump, through his real estate background, has developed this incredibly effective negotiating strategy,
00:23:29.840 which is that you rattle people and you start with an offer that's way up here and then you come down, um, and then you end up in a more favorable spot.
00:23:39.600 And if it didn't work, people wouldn't be rattled, but people are.
00:23:45.360 And I think the other problem we have in Canada is what I mentioned earlier is there's a lot of incentives to rattle people from the Liberal Party.
00:23:52.420 Um, so I, I agree in theory with what you're saying, um, but in practice it's hard to do.
00:23:59.720 And I do say, if we all know he's doing it, stop reacting and sit there and say, okay, what does he really want?
00:24:06.080 Because several weeks ago I said, I think what he wants is more sea in Greenland, more military bases in Greenland.
00:24:15.780 Um, and I think that's where we're going to end up.
00:24:18.620 Well, where did we end up?
00:24:21.080 I'll just say quickly that, um, it, it is hard to know.
00:24:24.680 And I do remember, I think we're in sort of a different era now in Trump's second term than we were in his first term.
00:24:29.740 And I think people, people are still adapting to this, but when the tariff threats were flying around in December,
00:24:35.540 I remember speaking to people close to both Pierre Polyev and Justin Trudeau, um, months later who said that neither of those two men took the tariff threats very seriously at all.
00:24:47.100 And I think I, you know, it's hard to remember these things.
00:24:49.360 News is a bit of a blur, but I think that I kind of thought they were empty threats until they actually happened.
00:24:54.580 And that I think is the trouble with Trump is that the one time that you say, ah, he's clearly bluffing, that might be the time that you get smacked in the head.
00:25:03.180 I think Stuart hit the nail on the head when he said, Stuart, this, that, you know, this is how he does the deal, right?
00:25:10.100 He's treating the world like a real estate market.
00:25:12.520 The problem is you can't do that.
00:25:14.800 This is not building another tower in Midtown Manhattan.
00:25:17.360 This is dealing with the lives of 57,000 people who live in Greenland.
00:25:21.680 And treating a country like a real estate deal, you're, you're, you're neglecting the fact that there are a million political and personal feelings that enter into the equation.
00:25:32.180 You simply cannot do that.
00:25:34.760 And he's doing that.
00:25:36.380 But, but he's doing it.
00:25:37.340 Yeah, I know he's doing it because that's how he runs things.
00:25:39.200 Right.
00:25:39.560 But what I'm saying is that it is not, it's not effective.
00:25:42.520 No, can I finish?
00:25:43.460 Mark Carney.
00:25:44.180 It's not, it's not effective because when you do that, you stir up all the antipathy unnecessarily, not just there, but around the world.
00:25:54.900 There are other actors.
00:25:55.780 It's not like you're just dealing with the real estate board of New York City to get your tower built.
00:25:59.040 You're dealing with all these other countries now who are going to freak out and the people in Greenland who freak out naturally freak out because this is not how the world has done business.
00:26:07.460 And, you know, Trump can want to do business this way, but he also alienates people.
00:26:12.380 And, you know, he doesn't care that travel from Canada to the U.S. is down by a third.
00:26:16.760 And that Las Vegas is now offering hotels, offering deals at par because they're desperate to have customers and people are impact, negatively impacted by what he's doing.
00:26:24.680 He doesn't care.
00:26:25.360 He doesn't see that.
00:26:26.480 He just sees his art of the deal.
00:26:28.740 And he could have gotten more say in Greenland by using honey and not vinegar, but that's not his style.
00:26:34.160 But here's the problem is that using so much vinegar, you're going to basically dissolve all these relationships that you used to have and make people turn against your country in other ways that you may not foresee.
00:26:45.040 So, you know, he thinks it's great to be a bull in a china shop.
00:26:48.420 I personally think it's obnoxious, but apart from obnoxious, I also think it's ineffective ultimately because at some point, you're right, he cries wolf all the time.
00:26:55.940 People are going to stop taking him seriously.
00:26:58.100 And when they stop taking you seriously as a leader, that's where things can get iffy.
00:27:02.820 And I think that his Norway thing was part of that too.
00:27:05.500 People are now saying the guy is just mad and what's the point?
00:27:09.360 Let's just get together over here and ignore what he's doing, which may not be a bad thing.
00:27:13.080 So, to quote Mark Carney, we have to take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.
00:27:20.320 And the simple fact is this is how he is acting.
00:27:23.460 This is how he's going to keep acting.
00:27:26.000 So, pulling out our hair, overreacting and pretending like France is going to somehow defend Norway or Greenland.
00:27:34.340 I love the statement that in a sure sign that Greenland will surrender to Trump, France is now sending troops.
00:27:40.020 France is not going to defend anyone.
00:27:43.720 That is not going to happen.
00:27:46.260 And look, half of this started because Jake Tapper, in what I thought was a good interview with Stephen Miller,
00:27:53.720 the whole idea that they're going to invade Greenland started because Jake Tapper said,
00:27:58.160 will you rule out military intervention?
00:28:00.660 And he said, no, we're not going to rule out anything.
00:28:02.380 But come on, no one's going to fight us militarily for Greenland.
00:28:06.420 And that became, they're going to invade Greenland.
00:28:11.680 No, that was not explicitly said at the beginning.
00:28:16.460 And then it became a talking point.
00:28:18.560 And then both sides overreact.
00:28:20.860 And I'm just sitting there saying, why are we overreacting to the musings of Stephen Miller?
00:28:28.220 And the whole world went nuts.
00:28:32.640 People giving themselves ulcers, thinking that there's a war starting, when that was never going to happen.
00:28:38.160 And that's what I mean, and that we overreact to Trump.
00:28:40.760 And he benefits from it.
00:28:42.040 I'll just say, too, this is something I notice in my life, which is I'm 42.
00:28:49.440 So I feel like I'm right in the middle of the two generations that were important in the last election.
00:28:54.040 The younger voters who tended to go towards, especially young men, going towards Polyev.
00:29:00.820 And in general, being less worried about the Trump threat.
00:29:04.320 And then the sort of older voters who worried about the Trump threat to the exclusion of everything else.
00:29:10.880 And I start most of my days in a suburban McDonald's with a cup of coffee, just listening to the old timers talking.
00:29:19.240 And all they talk about is Donald Trump.
00:29:21.520 And it's such an interesting insight into the psychology of what's happening right now in Canada.
00:29:27.980 And I think the trouble with Trump is that he is, no matter what he's doing, whether it's dark or whether it's something else, it is entertaining.
00:29:37.460 It is a reality show that you can watch.
00:29:39.580 You can put on CNN and you can watch it for eight hours and you will be entertained by that.
00:29:44.460 And even if you are sort of viewing it in the terms of, like, fear and outrage, at its heart, they are enjoying watching the show.
00:29:52.000 And I think that's probably the big problem with the Trump thing as a whole.
00:29:56.200 My mother's Facebook feed, we were on a trip together recently and she kept scrolling for a Facebook feed.
00:30:01.760 And it was late night comic after late night comic talking about Trump and her whole news feed.
00:30:09.020 And I'm like, you know what I liked about being in California for two weeks over Christmas?
00:30:14.700 Nobody talked to me about Trump unless I talked to a Canadian. 0.56
00:30:17.360 I went to America to escape Trump and I'll gladly do it again because he lives in the heads of Canadians rent-free in a way that I don't think is healthy.
00:30:30.200 Well, he lives in the heads of Minnesotans too.
00:30:32.200 He lives in the heads of other – in Maine.
00:30:33.640 Like, I mean, I disagree.
00:30:35.360 I think it depends where you are in the U.S.
00:30:37.360 And I think, you know, I have friends who spend time in Florida and they go there to escape the Trump talk too.
00:30:43.440 There are parts of the country where you won't hear it.
00:30:45.960 There are other parts you will.
00:30:47.140 And I think that it strikes a chord with Canadians because, you know, A, he's the president of the United States.
00:30:56.100 We feel we have to take him seriously.
00:30:58.400 But it's also a frustration because we thought we were making progress and now we're not.
00:31:04.180 And I think this started actually with Doug Ford.
00:31:06.040 I'll throw him into the mix because some people are saying, well, it's hypocritical to praise Carney for his provocation when dumping on Doug Ford for his ads that he ran, if you remember, not that long ago.
00:31:17.040 His ads using Ronald Reagan and trying to tell the Americans that we need to deal with them and they need to deal with us.
00:31:23.920 And Trump took this very personally and the negotiations fell apart after that.
00:31:28.740 And Carney wasn't happy and he had told Ford not to do that.
00:31:32.180 So, you know, I've been on record.
00:31:33.700 You never told them before the ads ran.
00:31:35.460 No, but I was I was on record saying that these ads were a bad idea.
00:31:38.940 I thought that they were unnecessary because they came out of nowhere.
00:31:42.460 This is different.
00:31:43.600 This what what Carney did is different because Trump has already been in everyone's consciousness because of Greenland, because of all these things.
00:31:51.240 So it is it feels like a more appropriate time to respond to this and say enough's enough.
00:31:58.580 We're just fed up.
00:31:59.400 And I agree he lives rent free in our heads, Brian.
00:32:01.740 But that's because we live right next door to the U.S.
00:32:04.720 We are the mouse.
00:32:05.620 They're the elephant.
00:32:06.860 Now we're the mouse that roared.
00:32:08.080 So I say good on us.
00:32:10.040 Honestly, I think a lot of people just while this may have repercussions, obviously, on our relationship, they feel like thank you for saying this because so many people wanted to say it but couldn't or didn't dare.
00:32:22.180 And Carney did.
00:32:22.760 Let's talk about Pierre Polyev's response.
00:32:28.760 In fact, let's play a little clip of that right now.
00:32:31.420 Here is what the leader of the official opposition had to say.
00:32:35.360 Prime Minister Carney's well-crafted and eloquently delivered speech at Davos has been widely noted, and I want to start by offering my own praise.
00:32:43.320 The prime minister is right to restate what many have said for years.
00:32:48.060 Canada must become more self-reliant, less dependent, and work with like-minded countries to advance our interests.
00:32:55.440 And conservatives are, as always, willing to work with him to turn these words into results.
00:33:01.860 What stood out most to me was when he pointed out, quote, the gaps between rhetoric and reality.
00:33:08.740 That's especially true here at home.
00:33:10.700 If liberal words and good intentions were tradable commodities, Canada would already be the richest nation on earth.
00:33:19.240 It took a couple days for this response to come out, and then when he did, he, you know, Polyev saying, you know, good things about the speech, but what have you done for me lately?
00:33:30.120 What are you actually accomplishing for Canada?
00:33:32.360 I think it's a valid criticism, but I'm not sure that in a war of words between Pierre Polyev, or sorry, between Mark Carney and Donald Trump, that Pierre Polyev matters.
00:33:44.340 Yeah, that's the fundamental problem for Pierre Polyev is the last election landscape was extremely unfavorable to him.
00:33:53.140 And right now, I think we're seeing the best he can do, which is to say, yeah, it's a good speech, but Canadians have seen a lot of good speeches.
00:34:02.660 So maybe we need to see something.
00:34:04.840 And I think that's probably the best criticism of Carney, which is that he's got a lot of grand ambitions.
00:34:10.240 He wants to do pipelines and major projects and deals with Trump and all this stuff that's apparently on the way, but hasn't arrived yet.
00:34:21.020 And I think there will be a point where Canadians start to go, well, you know, is this guy just flying around giving speeches or is this stuff actually happening?
00:34:30.060 And I think for Polyev, it's not a good time for him.
00:34:33.640 And that's probably why, if you're a liberal, you're thinking about a spring election, because, you know, time is good for Polyev.
00:34:40.400 Time is probably bad for Mark Carney.
00:34:43.160 So I think the speech is about the best you can do if you're a conservative, but I don't think he's going to be getting a lot of headlines from it.
00:34:52.040 Yeah, I think that Polyev started off this speech.
00:34:56.880 He tried to mitigate the usual criticism that he has, which is that he's just opposing and he's dumping on Carney regardless of whatever he says.
00:35:03.660 And he came out, you know, at the beginning and said, well, it's, you know, Carney, Carney wasn't, it wasn't all bad, basically, what he was doing.
00:35:10.920 He was putting things in the window that need to be addressed, but he's not addressing them.
00:35:15.200 And we are the people to address them.
00:35:16.560 And he went on for like 13 minutes in this address.
00:35:18.520 You know, Carney was 18 at the World Trade Forum, ironically.
00:35:24.340 Polyev's was 13 minutes saying about how these are, you know, the issues in Canada that are going unaddressed and things like groceries and inflation and cost of living and all these legitimate things.
00:35:36.820 And my understanding, the conservatives are going to be hammering those nails in constantly.
00:35:41.840 That is, they're going to stay on that message because it does resonate with their electorate.
00:35:46.440 I mean, Pierre Polyev would never have even gone to the WEF, right?
00:35:49.820 He said that specifically.
00:35:51.280 He would never let his ministers go there.
00:35:52.820 He wouldn't have even been on stage.
00:35:54.300 So people who like that kind of idea, that it's great that we boycott these kind of elitist high-profile events, will be like, yeah, Pierre, you're right, right?
00:36:04.100 And this will resonate with them.
00:36:05.620 But there are a lot of the people, Stuart was referencing, the older people in particular who think that these institutions still matter or want Canada to be on the world stage,
00:36:14.080 who will say, nah, that doesn't do it for me.
00:36:17.040 Plus, they're not in the same economic bucket.
00:36:19.340 They're not hurting as much.
00:36:20.780 And they'll say, no, I like what Carney had to say.
00:36:23.180 So I don't think Polyev will win anyone over with his remarks.
00:36:26.220 I think he's speaking to his base.
00:36:28.020 And I think that people will, you know, those people will still be there.
00:36:31.300 But in terms of that other voter base and switcher voters, especially boomer voters, I don't think that he would have convinced anyone of those people to switch back to him.
00:36:42.180 Looking at the latest polling from Abacus, which has dropped a couple of big polls over the past couple of days, doing deep dives into where the conservative vote is, where the liberal vote is.
00:36:58.700 You're looking at accessible voter pools.
00:37:00.700 The liberals, 53% of the population say that they would consider voting for the liberals.
00:37:07.040 48% say they would consider voting for the conservatives.
00:37:10.640 And it's 34% in for the NDP.
00:37:18.040 Surprising for me that the NDP is that high considering they got – so did they even make it to double digits nationally?
00:37:25.680 I know in Ontario they were below 5%.
00:37:27.860 I don't think they made double digits nationally.
00:37:30.860 I'd have to double check on that.
00:37:32.640 But, you know, Polyev's party is still doing well except with those older voters.
00:37:40.840 And you look and it's, you know, what's the gender gap?
00:37:45.020 Well, 45% say they would vote conservative among men.
00:37:49.680 40% say they would vote liberal.
00:37:51.820 Among women it's 32% for the conservatives.
00:37:54.940 43% would vote liberal.
00:37:57.720 Over 60%, 50% for the liberals.
00:38:00.660 36% for the conservatives.
00:38:03.340 45% to 59%, 41% liberal.
00:38:06.880 36% conservative.
00:38:09.120 The conservatives only end up on top among people below 45%.
00:38:14.980 Stuart.
00:38:15.600 So, yeah.
00:38:18.360 But, I mean, regionally doing well in Ontario, doing well in British Columbia where they're competitive at least.
00:38:28.880 Not bad in Atlantic Canada considering how strong the liberals are out there.
00:38:33.940 But it doesn't seem like this is – if we did go to a spring election that this would be a position where they could win.
00:38:42.100 The thing that I think is worth noting with Pierre Polyev's reaction to Carney's speech is that not just the substance, but also it didn't come out until Thursday evening.
00:38:53.600 Carney gave the speech two days before that, more than two days before that.
00:38:56.940 So, I think that the conservatives are looking at these numbers.
00:39:01.700 I know there's a fear in that party that what if we hit a ceiling in April?
00:39:06.160 What if that's as far as we can go?
00:39:07.740 And without the NDP, that's just it for us.
00:39:11.280 They're looking at boomer men who are becoming more unattainable and who seem to have – some conservatives have told me there seems to be a personal thing with Pierre Polyev where, you know,
00:39:22.600 the liberal attack about how he's only ever been a politician really resonates with those older men like this guy never had a real job.
00:39:30.780 And this seems to be the most reliable demographic for the Harper conservatives.
00:39:35.860 And that's why they did that.
00:39:37.280 And even for Andrew Scheer and Aaron O'Toole, they did well with that demographic.
00:39:41.320 Yeah.
00:39:41.700 It's partly a Polyev thing.
00:39:43.080 I'd say it's a small part of it is a Polyev thing and part of it is a structural situation with Trump.
00:39:48.100 And that's why they did that ad in April last year with the two men golfing and kind of talking in, you know, Stephen Harper supporter kind of ways.
00:39:57.880 And the other voter pool that they may be swinging for there is either boosting the young men, which they're kind of maxing that out as it is,
00:40:05.400 but women are going more to the liberals and to the progressive side. 1.00
00:40:09.820 That is like a structural problem across the whole West, that there's ideological polarization between men and women.
00:40:17.940 Men are leaning a little bit to the right.
00:40:20.740 Women are going much farther to the left. 1.00
00:40:22.940 And that's just something, it's a phenomenon you see everywhere.
00:40:25.980 Yeah, I was seeing polling on that in the United States the other day.
00:40:29.280 And the graph that was put up showed men bouncing up and down.
00:40:33.740 So there's a line in the center showing the middle and men were bouncing up and down around the line and women were for years and years.
00:40:42.780 And then the past five to 10 years, it's a 20 point swing towards very liberal positions.
00:40:49.360 Yeah.
00:40:49.960 And every conservative I know has seen that chart.
00:40:53.380 So I can see, I can imagine being in the conservative party and feeling a little bit of despair at those numbers and the sort of structural changes that are swimming against them.
00:41:02.620 Um, so I think that's maybe why you see when Pierre Polyev takes two and a half days to respond to a simple speech in Davos, it's because they're a little bit paralyzed by the situation they face.
00:41:14.180 Yeah.
00:41:14.680 I wouldn't say it was a simple speech.
00:41:16.280 It was a deep and complex speech.
00:41:20.320 Um, I like what Michael Covert said.
00:41:22.980 Like he, he said it was best speech he'd read in a long time.
00:41:26.760 It was very powerful, but also dark subtext that he's very concerned about and would have to think about.
00:41:32.620 And, but that's kind of where I landed on it.
00:41:35.280 Uh, Tasha, you know, as you look at these numbers and what do you think of the conservative chances?
00:41:44.240 Now we'll, we'll talk quickly about the, uh, the upcoming, uh, convention in Calgary, but I mean, do the conservatives, how do they find their way out of this wilderness?
00:41:56.440 And nationally, they're doing well, some regional numbers they're doing well, but still not a coalition that could win.
00:42:01.760 Yeah, it is tricky, um, because, you know, the dark days ahead speeches, actually conservatives have often played more on fear than, than liberals.
00:42:11.620 Um, and this is a reversal in a way of that usual dynamic.
00:42:16.060 The conservatives are not usually the sunny ways, happy days party.
00:42:21.000 And in fact, they're not on things like the economy at all.
00:42:23.840 They're, they're look, you know, look how bad it is.
00:42:25.840 And Polyev has been talking about this for years now about the, the fact that the younger generation can't get a break, et cetera.
00:42:32.360 So I think, um, this is the issue.
00:42:35.300 Those, those men you're talking about, those older men, I think it's a comfort factor too.
00:42:39.900 They, they look at Carney and they're like, you're like me, like someone who looks and thinks like me, as opposed to Polyev, who has a different personality, different style.
00:42:48.820 He appeals to younger people in the way he presents himself on social media.
00:42:53.520 Uh, it's more abrasive.
00:42:54.980 It's not what an older generation is used to from their political leaders.
00:42:59.820 And it smacks of Trump.
00:43:01.300 Many of his tactics look very much the same.
00:43:03.940 So that older generation, I think the older men just, they, they have a disconnect with him on that too.
00:43:09.780 And Harper was not like that, you know, and, and the times were different too, but Harper, Harper, first of all, didn't have a Trump to deal with.
00:43:15.340 But second, Harper was, you know, he, he presented in a way people could relate to, too.
00:43:20.720 His, his, his politics were, uh, more conventional than Polyev's are.
00:43:26.520 Uh, so.
00:43:27.240 He had a, he had a far right hidden agenda.
00:43:29.940 We heard all about it.
00:43:30.780 Well, the left said that, but I think many men didn't necessarily, that wasn't something that, that, that, that, that hit home with that cohort of voters.
00:43:37.420 I think with, with hardcore liberal voters, NDP voters, absolutely, they didn't like it.
00:43:42.100 It hit harm with women, because the hard right agenda implies, excuse me, things on abortion. 1.00
00:43:47.100 That was the issue.
00:43:48.140 I think a lot of men, I mean, maybe that issue doesn't resonate as much with them.
00:43:51.360 And, you know, it's, I wouldn't, I would understand that.
00:43:54.220 It's not as personal to them.
00:43:55.440 So I think this is for, to answer how he gets out of this is tricky.
00:44:00.800 I don't know if I have a full answer.
00:44:02.640 I think the conservatives need to see where do they need to diversify their base while still hewing true to the principles they have.
00:44:10.760 Can they do that?
00:44:12.400 And I think it's more a style thing, to be honest, than what they're selling.
00:44:16.200 And the style has to change.
00:44:18.440 Polyev said he won't change, though.
00:44:20.180 So if he's still going to be that abrasive guy, that's going to play against him in an era of Trump.
00:44:27.400 I remember being on the campaign trail with Stephen Harper, and I believe it was a stop in Brampton.
00:44:32.440 No, it was a stop in Brampton because he invoked the late former premier of Ontario, Bill Davis, when he said, boring is good.
00:44:43.200 And Stephen Harper bored his way into a majority.
00:44:47.260 And he did.
00:44:48.720 And when he won that majority, it wasn't just with older men.
00:44:55.360 The plurality of women also voted for the conservatives in 2011.
00:45:00.400 And there was a – the liberals ended up with the real gender gap, not the conservatives.
00:45:06.500 OK.
00:45:06.680 So quick roundup.
00:45:08.040 How do we think the convention will go?
00:45:12.100 I have been pretty steadfast in saying that Polyev will get over 70 percent.
00:45:18.980 He'll be fine.
00:45:20.080 That's what I have been saying.
00:45:22.660 And here we are a week out, a few days away.
00:45:27.140 And I'm not sure now.
00:45:28.820 Wow.
00:45:31.500 I have been trying to find a conservative who will say below 80, and I can't find them.
00:45:35.860 Oh, yeah.
00:45:36.280 I do not think and have never thought he'll get below or above 80.
00:45:40.500 You don't think he'll get above 80?
00:45:41.720 I've been saying, I think, above 70.
00:45:43.680 Wow.
00:45:45.380 That's low.
00:45:46.520 To me, that's low.
00:45:47.400 I was thinking about 80.
00:45:47.980 Maybe I'm just talking to Kool-Aid drinkers.
00:45:51.100 So, you know, having looked at these things in the past, I've always said between 70 and 80, he's fine.
00:45:56.820 But, hey, I got Bonnie Crombie wrong in Ontario for the Ontario Liberals.
00:46:04.540 Jason Kenney I got wrong.
00:46:06.620 So, yeah, maybe I'm wrong on this.
00:46:08.840 And maybe Polyev won't get – if he doesn't get above 70, I think he's toast.
00:46:14.700 But where do you guys think you'll land?
00:46:16.940 Someone told me, Brian.
00:46:18.460 So I've been thinking – I've just been hearing above 80.
00:46:20.480 And maybe I'm just talking to Kool-Aid drinkers, and that's why.
00:46:22.640 But, you know, you've got a little over 800 delegates going, about 100 from Quebec.
00:46:30.180 So you can see – you can start to see the math of how the regional game might play against him a little bit.
00:46:35.920 But the other thing that I know is that if there's anything Pierre Polyev will put all of his energy into, it's something like this.
00:46:43.880 And this isn't boomers in Toronto, he has to convince. 0.82
00:46:47.680 This is conservatives.
00:46:49.080 So I feel like it's 80.
00:46:51.880 I know a lot of conservatives – this is not based on reporting.
00:46:55.240 This is based on conservatives' deepest, darkest fears.
00:46:58.660 But a lot of them are worried about some new floor crossing being announced the day after or two days after he gets his leadership review.
00:47:07.320 So even if he does well, they'll still find something else to be fearful about.
00:47:12.720 The folks I've been speaking to about floor crossing – and this is going back weeks now – based on how Chris D'Entremont went, where even he was surprised that his floor crossing was announced because he didn't realize he was on the record.
00:47:25.180 And how others disappeared, Matt Jenneru, that the liberal plan had been if there were more floor crossers, they would do them immediately and not try and orchestrate them. 0.90
00:47:38.360 And we haven't seen any.
00:47:40.320 So I'm not sure that any will happen.
00:47:43.820 Tasha, your thoughts on how Polyev does at the convention and will we see the floor crossers? 1.00
00:47:51.920 Is there some grand plan?
00:47:53.720 Everyone thinks politics is filled with really smart people like in West Wing and you always have to remind them, more Veep, less West Wing.
00:48:02.020 So I think – I have not heard – I've not been paying rapt attention to the 70, 80 or 90.
00:48:08.260 I had heard over a week ago, so maybe it's still now, over 80.
00:48:13.980 But to me, over 70 is not a success.
00:48:17.160 If he gets under 80, I think that's not – I've been on record saying I think under 90 is not –
00:48:22.000 you know, it would be nice if he had 90 and above ringing endorsement.
00:48:25.640 Then the floor crossing happened.
00:48:26.860 It's Saddam Hussein level. 0.97
00:48:28.000 No, but then I said 80.
00:48:32.860 Under 80 is in trouble, in my view, in Calgary.
00:48:35.940 If this was happening in Toronto or Montreal, you know, but it's his home base.
00:48:39.840 People are going to be there from there.
00:48:41.040 People from the Atlantic are not necessarily going to go.
00:48:43.100 It's awfully cold.
00:48:43.980 It's expensive.
00:48:44.980 I've heard that from people in Atlantic Canada.
00:48:46.720 They're not even bothering.
00:48:47.680 So I think that's a problem.
00:48:49.660 I will say on the floor crossing, though, that I've heard also these rumors.
00:48:55.160 However, I think that the fact we think he may be setting up an election as a plan B indicates that maybe those floor crossers aren't out there. 1.00
00:49:04.400 And he can't get the majority because that little parade's not happening.
00:49:07.960 So they're saying, OK, let's forget about plan A.
00:49:11.880 Let's go to plan B, set up an election.
00:49:13.840 If plan A happens, great.
00:49:15.160 If it doesn't, well, we've got something else in the hopper.
00:49:17.960 So I am not as set on floor crossing or seeing floor crossers as I am on the plan B scenario maybe playing out. 1.00
00:49:30.080 Well, we know that they were courting floor crossers because Scott Anderson, the conservative from Vernon Lake Country, Mona Shee in British Columbia. 1.00
00:49:40.240 I had to look up the full name of the writing.
00:49:44.100 Both he and Lori Eidluck from Nunavut, she's a New Democrat, said, yes, we were approached.
00:49:51.940 And they both said that, no, they're not going to do it.
00:49:54.940 Anderson was adamant he's not doing it.
00:49:57.060 And Eidluck was like, well, like I've talked to people in maybe one day possibly.
00:50:04.100 So, yeah, they've been trying.
00:50:06.400 But, yeah, I think I agree with you.
00:50:08.280 The fact that they appear to be prepping or laying the groundwork for an election.
00:50:14.980 The things that people don't realize about politics is there's always like 15 different things going on, planning for different scenarios.
00:50:22.700 And just because we say, well, looks like they might be planning for an election and then the election doesn't happen, doesn't mean that they weren't planning for it.
00:50:31.420 It means that something else may have happened that changed their mind.
00:50:35.040 It's like trying to get rid of Melanie Jolie because she's a pain in your butt and they don't like her. 0.94
00:50:42.940 And then Stephen Goubeau resigns from cabinet and then you're like, ooh, but maybe we still need Melanie now for the Quebec.
00:50:51.640 Maybe Pablo Rodriguez will come back.
00:50:53.420 Just kidding.
00:50:55.220 He needs a job.
00:50:56.120 I don't think he'd be welcome.
00:50:57.320 He needs a job now.
00:50:58.620 All right, guys.
00:50:59.620 Thanks so much.
00:51:00.580 We'll reconvene, I'm sure, in a month or so and see how our predictions went.
00:51:05.620 But thanks for the time today.
00:51:07.420 Thank you.
00:51:08.300 Thanks, Brian.
00:51:08.600 Full comment is a post-media podcast.
00:51:11.640 My name's Brian Lilly.
00:51:13.040 This episode was produced by Andre Proulx.
00:51:15.480 Theme music by Bryce Hall.
00:51:16.800 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
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00:51:24.640 Thanks for listening.
00:51:25.400 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.
00:51:33.640 Here's that clip from Canada Did What?
00:51:36.240 I promised you.
00:51:38.600 Two years later, he was still opposition leader, and he lost again to the Pearson Liberals.
00:51:46.680 Despite this, Diefenbaker doesn't resign as leader of the Progressive Conservatives,
00:51:52.040 which put the party in an awkward situation that hasn't really happened before.
00:51:56.840 The typical rules of a Canadian political party were that you stayed leader until you died or resigned.
00:52:02.880 And if you lost twice in a row, you were supposed to do the honorable thing and step aside.
00:52:07.620 But Diefenbaker just didn't, prompting the party to take the unprecedented step of forcing a party
00:52:14.920 convention in Toronto for the singular purpose of crowbarring Diefenbaker out of the leadership.
00:52:21.960 Diefenbaker shows up, pretends everything is fine, and gives a finger-wagging speech chastising his
00:52:28.040 fellow party members for their disloyalty.
00:52:30.540 I followed this party when I didn't agree with policies.
00:52:36.660 I gave loyalty to leader after leader.
00:52:41.080 Because I believe that there is no other way.
00:52:44.800 He's politely cheered by the assembled conservatives,
00:52:47.860 and then abjectly humiliated in their subsequent leadership vote.
00:52:51.480 On the first ballot, Diefenbaker gets a distant fifth place,
00:52:55.480 and even then he refuses to admit defeat.
00:53:00.360 If you want to hear the rest of the story, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What?
00:53:05.720 everywhere you get your podcasts.