Full Comment - Here comes the big U.S.-Israel split

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00:01:30.000 I think it's a game changer.

00:01:33.960 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was one of the first global leaders to not only react to Donald Trump's MOU with Iran to end hostilities,

00:01:41.920 but he's been praising it, and he's done it more than once.

00:01:45.020 I think, as I said in recent days, that I welcome the deal that President Trump has negotiated.

00:01:51.560 Hello and welcome to the Full Comment podcast. My name's Brian Lilly, your host, and today a look at what this deal is.

00:01:57.520 the good, the bad, and the mostly ugly of it all, and what it means in particular for a country that

00:02:03.740 started this conflict with Iran as a close ally of the United States and is now seemingly on the

00:02:10.020 outside. I'm speaking, of course, of Israel, where this deal isn't popular. Donald J. Trump

00:02:15.840 is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this

00:02:23.600 moment in time. And he happens to be the head of state of the world superpower. If I was in the

00:02:28.960 cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have

00:02:35.160 anywhere left in the entire world. That was Vice President J.D. Vance. And Vance isn't the only one

00:02:40.680 sending warning messages to the Israeli government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu through the

00:02:45.780 media. If it weren't for Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu worked well with me, but he will tell

00:02:51.940 you. We're the ones with the guns. We're the ones with the whole deal. We're the ones with the B-2

00:02:56.920 bombers, etc. If it weren't for Donald Trump, Israel would have been eviscerated. Joining us

00:03:05.120 from Tel Aviv to try and break this down, talk about it, is Elon Levy. He is a former spokesperson

00:03:10.120 for the Israeli government and keen political observer. So Elon, between Donald Trump's words

00:03:17.120 that he has to keep Netanyahu sane,

00:03:19.480 that Israel will do whatever he tells them,

00:03:22.560 J.D. Vance essentially saying,

00:03:24.660 look, you're ungrateful,

00:03:26.860 and you wouldn't exist without us.

00:03:29.900 How is this all being received in Israel today?

00:03:34.460 We need to understand

00:03:35.600 what the American administration is doing now

00:03:37.560 because the president and the vice president

00:03:39.460 are not armchair commentators.

00:03:41.500 They're trying to drive a particular agenda.

00:03:44.040 Donald Trump wants a grand bargain

00:03:46.520 with Iran. He concluded that he didn't want to force the Strait of Hormuz open using military

00:03:54.220 action, and therefore he was going to pay the Iranians to open it. I mean, that is the meaning 0.95

00:03:58.780 of unfreezing assets, allowing them to sell oil, allowing them to charge a toll on the Strait of

00:04:05.580 Hormuz. This is a deal to reopen that strait. And to that end, the president's decided that

00:04:12.900 Israel's defensive campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon is a nuisance. It is an obstacle in the

00:04:19.420 path of a grand bargain with the Islamic Republic of Iran, because he wants this problem to go away 0.74

00:04:24.340 definitely ahead of the midterms. And that means that whereas throughout the war, the Israeli and 0.57

00:04:30.460 American interests were completely intertwined to the level that you had American jets refueling

00:04:36.780 Israeli planes over the skies of Tehran, they've become undone. America has a lot more risk

00:04:42.700 tolerance for the Islamic Republic of Iran than Israel, which is literally on the border of

00:04:47.980 Lebanon, southern Lebanon controlled by an Iranian proxy army, Hezbollah. Much more skeptical of the

00:04:53.820 Iranian regime's intentions, by the way, as are many in the administration who we haven't heard

00:04:58.740 from exactly supporting this deal. And so it does look like Donald Trump is now trying to publicly

00:05:05.200 put pressure on Netanyahu to wrap up what's going on in Lebanon so that it doesn't get in the way

00:05:12.300 of the grand rapprochement he's trying to achieve with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

00:05:16.680 You've got op-eds in Israeli publications owned by prominent Trump donors denouncing

00:05:22.700 the deal. Clearly, there's a lot of Israeli public that is upset with this, although I

00:05:29.380 did note that Amir Tirbon in Haaretz is saying, well, here's what we have to understand about

00:05:36.620 Trump and almost defending him. Is there a split going on with the public within the political

00:05:41.900 sphere? No, pretty much everyone in Israel understands that this deal is a disaster,

00:05:46.740 not only for Israel, but for the Middle East and frankly, for the United States.

00:05:50.040 And that's because this is not a deal to end Iran's nuclear program. It is a deal to reopen

00:05:55.100 the Strait of Hormuz while giving away America's leverage to end the nuclear program. What are the

00:06:01.260 Americans getting? A promise to negotiate and enter the nuclear program. What are they giving?

00:06:06.540 Oil waivers, unfreezing sanctions, giving immunity to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a promise to undo

00:06:14.720 all the other sanctions as well. This is seen in Israel, as it is by many of the president's

00:06:21.460 critics in Congress as a capitulation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. So there is a lot of

00:06:27.960 anger and frustration in Israel, which is explained really by the fact that the United States and

00:06:33.960 Israel have been such close allies. Israelis are in such awe of the really brave steps that this

00:06:40.180 administration took to take on the Islamic Republic of Iran, both Operation Midnight Hammer

00:06:45.120 and Operation Epic Fury. They're so in awe of what America did. They're so grateful for everything 0.73

00:06:51.160 America did, that they're shocked in equal measure that America is willing to give away

00:06:56.700 its leverage just to reopen the Straits of Hormuz because of domestic political pressure.

00:07:02.480 There really isn't anyone in Israel who thinks that this deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz

00:07:07.940 by giving away America's leverage to end the nuclear program makes this region safer. Although,

00:07:13.980 as you say, political commentators understand the political reasons for which the administration has

00:07:20.160 have to do it. Do you put any stock in some writers putting forward that, well, this is just

00:07:26.580 Trump playing 5D chess and really there's going to be something else that comes out later and

00:07:31.720 then they will strike again and Iran will fall and the regime will fall. To me, I read the

00:07:38.580 arguments, I'll listen to them. But as you have said, I agree, this to me is about the midterms.

00:07:47.440 And I said at the start of this, if the war drags on, this will drop the bottom out of Donald Trump's support.

00:07:56.280 There is some growing anti-Semitism and anti-Israeli sentiment on the right, as there has always been, just as there is on the left.

00:08:05.900 Both parties are infected by it.

00:08:08.020 But bigger than that right now is we don't want a forever war.

00:08:12.740 In anything longer than a couple of weeks, people start describing or treating as a forever war.

00:08:19.160 They didn't seem to have a plan to get out of it.

00:08:21.720 So is this, do you put any stock in the folks that say this isn't about the midterms,

00:08:26.840 Trump is playing 5D chess? 0.71

00:08:29.560 This deal is a recipe for a forever war because it gives the Iranian regime billions of dollars

00:08:35.780 that they're going to pour into their proxy armies, into their ballistic missiles, 0.72

00:08:39.380 perhaps into their nuclear program, definitely not into the Iranian people. They were massacring

00:08:44.200 in the streets until President Trump promised that help is on its way.

00:08:47.980 But J.D. Vance is saying, no, no, that won't happen because we know and can watch how they're

00:08:54.400 spending their money this time. Yeah. So go to the MOU, hit on the keyboard

00:08:59.980 control F and immediately, and you will see that the United States has agreed to unfreeze,

00:09:06.660 has agreed to sign oil waivers immediately to unfreeze sanctions during negotiations to force

00:09:15.180 an end of the conflict in Lebanon. And all of that is preconditions for negotiations to even begin

00:09:21.340 on the nuclear issue. The Americans are not playing 5D chess unless, you know, that involves

00:09:31.280 unfreezing massive amounts of money for the Iranian regime. And then in which case, that's

00:09:35.580 6D chess. The Iranians are playing 5D chess because what they're trying to do is to deliberately 1.00

00:09:41.080 drive a wedge between Israel and the United States. The Iranian regime knows that the only 0.98

00:09:47.100 combined power in the world that can stop them from getting nuclear weapons is the combined

00:09:52.140 might of the US military and Israel, the two most powerful air forces in the world, according to the

00:09:58.200 Department of War in the United States. So they're trying to drive a wedge between Israel and the

00:10:03.160 United States. How are they doing that? By activating their proxy army Hezbollah in Lebanon.

00:10:09.040 If Hezbollah keeps killing Israeli soldiers, we woke up this morning to news of four men who were

00:10:14.500 killed in battle. If they keep shooting drones and rockets at Israeli houses and force Israel to 0.59

00:10:20.280 respond, they're going to incur the wrath of President Trump, who's going to try to tell

00:10:24.900 Israel, listen, we're not on the same page about Lebanon because I really want to get a deal with

00:10:29.660 Islamic Republic. So they're dangling the promise of nuclear talks in front of the United States 0.98

00:10:36.100 in order to tempt the United States into rebuking Israel and forcing it to accept Hezbollah on its 0.85

00:10:42.420 borders. And there is frustration in Israel, frustration in Lebanon, that this is a deal 0.68

00:10:46.840 that essentially sells Lebanon back to the IRGC. Lebanon is a sovereign country. It wants to

00:10:52.460 represent itself at the negotiating table. It doesn't want the Islamic regime, Iran, to represent 1.00

00:10:57.160 it at the negotiating table. Israel is a sovereign country that can also decide its own affairs.

00:11:02.940 And any progress on that front should be decided between Israel and Lebanon directly. But the

00:11:07.680 Iranian regime is inserting itself here, demanding a veto over what happens in Lebanon to strengthen

00:11:14.940 its stranglehold on that country in order to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States. It 0.78

00:11:20.000 knows if it can drive those two countries apart, that will clear the path for it to race towards 0.85

00:11:25.700 nuclear weapons again in future? The biggest disappointment for me in this MOU, among many

00:11:31.580 disappointments, it's a very disappointing deal. But the biggest one is that there was nothing

00:11:36.120 about the proxy groups, not about the Houthis, not about the Shia militias in Iraq, not about

00:11:43.760 Hamas, and not about Hezbollah. So this will, you know, you mentioned forever war. Those are 0.56

00:11:53.740 the forever wars. Iran, I think Marco Rubio gets this, and that's why he says all problems in the

00:12:02.780 Middle East trace back to Iran, and sounds still sensible on this when he isn't defending the deal. 1.00

00:12:10.020 But Iran is led by a messianic cult of 12ers who believe that they can speed up the end times. 0.97

00:12:19.220 You know, if the United States were led by an evangelical Christian who was trying to speed up the end times, the New York Times would be constantly harping on about it. 1.00

00:12:31.580 They would be warning about it. 0.87

00:12:33.280 We don't get that same warning about Iran, but that is where they're coming from on this.

00:12:38.640 So why do we trust them, that they will enter nuclear talks, that they will participate, that they will be honest?

00:12:45.220 frankly i don't know whether the administration expects iran to negotiate in good faith

00:12:52.160 definitely that's the assessment of the cia according to axios that the iranians do not

00:12:57.640 intend to wrap up the nuclear program and israeli intelligence believes that they're going to use

00:13:02.620 this 60-day window in order to frankly whenever the iranians say that the 60-day window has begun

00:13:10.380 because as far as they're concerned america hasn't fulfilled its side of the bargain just yet but they

00:13:14.980 will use that window in order to continue reconstituting their nuclear program. This is a

00:13:20.120 regime that, as Secretary Rubio said at the beginning of the war, is governed by religious 0.99

00:13:24.940 lunatics. They're not playing by the same rules of the game as normal countries. It is a revolution 0.90

00:13:33.060 that has hijacked a country that treats its people with appalling brutality, that wants to export 0.53

00:13:39.040 chaos all across the region. And any deal that unleashes billions of dollars to this radical 0.74

00:13:46.100 lunatic regime will create forever wars because the Iranian regime is going to pull that money 0.89

00:13:51.820 into its proxy armies in order to sow chaos. And these proxy armies are not just a threat to 0.94

00:13:57.340 Israel. When we talk about proxy armies, it's not just Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza,

00:14:02.760 the Houthis in Yemen who can also blockade the Red Sea. We're talking about militias in Iraq

00:14:08.900 that were responsible for drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries during the

00:14:13.040 war, okay? Not all the attacks on the Gulf countries came from mainland Iran. They activated

00:14:17.640 their proxy armies in these countries as well. And so it really does beggar belief that the

00:14:23.080 administration is releasing all of this money to the Iranian regime in order to conditionally open

00:14:29.880 the Strait of Hormuz. They're still going to be charging money in total violation of international

00:14:34.840 law in order to open the Strait of Hormuz. But it doesn't deal with the nuclear program. It doesn't 0.50

00:14:40.640 deal with the ballistic missiles. It doesn't deal with the proxy armies. In fact, it makes all three

00:14:45.880 of those problems worse just for the sake of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is, of

00:14:51.260 course, important. But the U.S. did have other options. So I want to ask you about the response

00:15:01.060 from the leaders of other countries.

00:15:04.160 We'll pick on the leaders of Canada.

00:15:07.440 Mark Carney has come out and said that this deal was worth it.

00:15:11.300 He has praised the deal.

00:15:13.000 He's now said the war was worth it.

00:15:14.900 He had previously, at the beginning, said, 0.77

00:15:17.360 well, we can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon.

00:15:20.440 Then he was critical of the war, called for it to end.

00:15:23.020 And then he puts out a statement,

00:15:25.480 along with his counterparts in the UK, Italy, France, Germany,

00:15:30.180 talking about the need for greater stability.

00:15:33.400 How much does it disappoint you

00:15:35.900 that the driving force for their point of view

00:15:42.620 isn't stopping the biggest exporter of terror?

00:15:47.040 And we've just found out that the shooting at the American consulate,

00:15:51.100 the shooting up of several synagogues in Toronto,

00:15:55.020 was carried out by people who were being coordinated by the Iranian regime.

00:16:00.180 a man who's since been arrested by the United States.

00:16:03.100 A police officer died trying to execute the search warrants to bring those in.

00:16:08.200 The massive spike in car thefts in Canada is driven by organized crime,

00:16:15.720 working with Hezbollah to fund them because the cars are stolen. 0.71

00:16:19.000 They're shipped through the port of Montreal to overseas.

00:16:20.760 They were sold for money that is laundered and helps pay for Hezbollah.

00:16:25.020 There's lots of things hitting Canada, 0.79

00:16:26.700 Just like all these tentacles go out into the UK, Italy, France, and Germany as well, and yet their leaders come out with a statement praising this deal because it brings regional stability.

00:16:39.120 Canada's support for appeasement here is not surprising, but it's definitely disappointing because appeasement doesn't buy peace.

00:16:46.500 It only buys you dishonor and lays the groundwork for the next war.

00:16:50.660 This will offer temporary relief.

00:16:52.420 It is short-sighted. If you are a politician and all you care about is bringing oil prices down,

00:16:58.700 sure. But what is the cost of doing that? The cost is emboldening a terrorist regime that has

00:17:04.260 brought political violence into Canada itself, that is orchestrating organized crime in order

00:17:10.160 to take its illicit profits and sow terrorism around the world. It's in order to build an

00:17:15.260 architecture that can impose illegal tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, and seeing Canada, which purports

00:17:21.340 to support international law. Praising an agreement that allows the Iranian regime to place 0.86

00:17:28.120 illegal tolls on the Strait of Hormuz is truly astonishing. It is incredibly short-sighted

00:17:34.700 because it ignores how the Iranian regime is going to take those ill-gotten gains 0.93

00:17:39.080 and continue to sow instability and chaos. The idea that radical regimes can be

00:17:46.800 funded into moderation.

00:17:49.240 And if you throw enough money at them,

00:17:51.060 they're craven enough

00:17:52.200 that they will moderate

00:17:53.480 is extremely short-sighted,

00:17:55.960 extremely dangerous.

00:17:57.620 But if you're surrounded by ocean

00:17:59.280 on either side,

00:18:00.360 perhaps it makes it more difficult

00:18:01.800 to see the immediate threat,

00:18:03.140 which countries in the Middle East

00:18:04.360 here are definitely seeing.

00:18:06.520 But, you know, in fairness, Ilan,

00:18:09.440 two weeks ago, oil was over $90 a barrel.

00:18:12.340 And today, West Texas Intermedia

00:18:14.460 is trading at $76.

00:18:16.040 So victory.

00:18:16.800 look the spike in oil prices was an unintended consequence of this war and bringing oil prices

00:18:25.380 down is important everyone's feeling that pain in their pockets but this war is about so much 0.93

00:18:31.060 more than the price of oil because this sets a precedent that the iranian regime gets a chokehold 0.59

00:18:37.580 over a vital international waterway and other actors are going to be looking around the world

00:18:43.360 thinking, how can we take over vital waterways and impose charges and taxes and our own blockades

00:18:50.520 because America, push comes to shove, is going to back down. And so we don't end up buying

00:18:56.120 stability. We're not getting the Western-led international order. We're getting institutionalized,

00:19:02.580 legalized piracy by a lunatic regime that realized it can blackmail the world by closing the Strait 0.79

00:19:08.840 of Hormuz. And believe me, the Iranian regime will do it again. The Iranian regime will blockade the 0.98

00:19:14.660 Strait of Hormuz again because they know it is a pressure tactic they can get away with. And if 0.89

00:19:19.580 they want to put pressure on whatever government for whatever reason, they can take the global

00:19:24.020 economy hostage because they know the United States and the rest of the West will not see

00:19:29.020 through the military option till the end and will try to blackmail it, will try to bribe it

00:19:33.540 into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

00:19:36.040 So, okay, you brought oil prices down for now,

00:19:39.700 but you've jeopardized them in the long run 0.94

00:19:41.920 while pumping a terrorist pirate regime

00:19:44.620 full of oodles and oodles

00:19:46.380 and crates and barrels full of cash.

00:19:49.980 And that's one of the reasons

00:19:50.760 this might actually be worse than Obama's deal,

00:19:53.560 which was horrific to say at least.

00:19:55.000 Well, it's much worse than Obama's deal.

00:19:57.280 Obama's deal was horrible.

00:19:58.980 And that's what's astonishing about it

00:20:00.460 because President Trump was the number one advocate

00:20:02.340 against the obama deal he understood the problem was if you put temporary restrictions on the

00:20:07.500 nuclear program and release huge amounts of cash by the time the deal expires the iranian regime

00:20:14.200 will be so powerful that there is no military option on the table and therefore you can't 0.74

00:20:18.920 renegotiate it and we saw how they took the obama money and poured it straight into the proxy armies

00:20:25.460 creating the combined invasion force that threatened us in israel on october 7th but at

00:20:31.940 least that deal put real caps on the Iranian nuclear program before they started undoing

00:20:38.800 undoing sanctions. This plan immediately allows the Iranians to export oil, immediately unfreezes

00:20:47.040 their assets, even before Iran does anything in order to dismantle the nuclear program. That's 0.76

00:20:52.800 just stage one to begin negotiations on the nuclear program. Let me ask you about Israel's

00:20:58.660 relations with outside countries, and specifically about Washington going forward. Because one of

00:21:06.020 the things that J.D. Vance said that is correct may be uncomfortable to hear, and he definitely

00:21:12.220 is, let's just say he has a different view on Israel than Republicans traditionally have had

00:21:17.660 for the last while. But Israel is running out of allies. People like Mark Carney, not a friend or

00:21:25.240 ally of Israel. Not a lot of friends or allies in Europe, and there used to be. And in the United

00:21:35.220 States, Biden wasn't great, but he was a lot better than what you're going to get from the

00:21:41.100 next Democrat. And Donald Trump could be the last pro-Israel Republican president.

00:21:48.320 Israel's finding itself in a really awkward and difficult political decision is is this

00:21:55.800 changing global dynamics around Israel is it Netanyahu driving other people away

00:22:01.600 or is it as Melanie Jolie one of the cabinet ministers in

00:22:06.400 Carney's government said a while back it's about demographics have you seen the demographics in

00:22:12.640 my writing she said one time alluding to the fact that she has a lot of Muslim voters what

00:22:18.020 What's happening and where does Israel go from here?

00:22:21.820 Does Netanyahu survive?

00:22:23.200 Is he able to mend fences?

00:22:25.740 After the October 7th massacre, Israelis, I think, naively believed that the whole world 0.96

00:22:31.560 would be with us.

00:22:33.100 Israelis said Hamas invaded, slaughtered 1,200 people in the most sadistic, barbaric

00:22:39.780 ways imaginable, kidnapped 251 people, including children into Gaza, including women and men

00:22:46.520 to be used as sex slaves, including dead bodies to be used as bargaining chips. The whole world

00:22:51.600 saw this and they will stand with us now as we fight against the Iranian axis. And that was

00:22:56.340 naive because they underestimated the combined force of the massive disinformation war that has

00:23:05.880 been waged against Israel by activist groups, by Hamas within Gaza, by UN agencies that have been

00:23:12.560 hijacked by radical actors to use this war to delegitimize Israel. And there's a reason that 0.57

00:23:19.000 the first placards accusing Israel of genocide came out on October 8th immediately. This was all

00:23:24.840 pre-planned and coordinated in advance. So the souring of relations with our allies has

00:23:32.180 definitely been painful for Israelis to watch because they're asking, what on earth would you

00:23:36.720 do if the same happened to your country. If a terrorist army invaded, snatched children from

00:23:43.000 their beds, dragged them into tunnels and promised to do that again and again, you would fight and

00:23:47.840 we would stand with you. So why are you turning your backs against us? But look, there's no doubt

00:23:52.540 that the last few years have been very effective for the anti-Israel movement in poisoning global

00:23:57.520 public opinion against Israel. And it puts Israel in a precarious place where I think it understands

00:24:03.500 you don't protect your own security just by being liked or by being sympathized with.

00:24:09.520 You protect your security by being needed, by making yourself indispensable to the global

00:24:14.900 economy and to other partners. Just look at the way the United States has been describing Israel

00:24:20.380 during Operation Epic Fury. Both the Secretary of War and CENTCOM saying that the US could not ask

00:24:27.700 for a better teammate than Israel, that it was a breath of fresh air to fight with such a capable

00:24:33.480 ally, that other allies should take note. The US National Security Review calling Israel a model

00:24:39.940 ally. Israel has established a reliance to the United States that understands how important

00:24:46.680 Israel is to its national security. And it wants to do that for other countries as well. It doesn't

00:24:51.300 want Canada to sympathize with us. It wants Canada to need us. And that's why Israel is at the cutting

00:24:56.940 edge of developing the technologies of tomorrow, including defense tech. It's the world's seventh

00:25:01.920 biggest exporter of defense technologies, out of an understanding that really, really in a world

00:25:08.160 that has bowed so much to catering money in the last few years, what speaks is interests and not

00:25:14.180 just perceptions. So I think there's an understanding that coming out of this war,

00:25:19.380 we definitely have to do a better job of explaining ourselves to the world and helping

00:25:23.700 our allies understand what it is that we are doing to defend ourselves, but also to continue

00:25:31.000 to grow Israel economically and diplomatically

00:25:34.900 to make sure that it becomes an indispensable partner

00:25:38.280 for these nations.

00:25:39.180 And you can't just throw it under the bus,

00:25:41.240 even when the demographics are against us.

00:25:44.880 And we look at what is happening in the UK.

00:25:46.980 You look what is happening in Canada,

00:25:48.700 rapidly growing Muslim communities

00:25:51.020 that are traditionally hostile to Israel. 1.00

00:25:54.080 And Israel sees the writing on the wall.

00:25:56.020 It understands how the transformation of these countries

00:25:58.160 is going to have ramifications for its foreign policy because of the growth of populations that

00:26:04.620 are hostile to Israel and do not want to engage with it, and many of them will not recognize it

00:26:10.080 at all. Is there a natural ally in the United States? Does Israel get a friendly voice or face

00:26:18.920 in the White House again?

00:26:23.520 Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania,

00:26:27.460 who should be a leading candidate,

00:26:29.300 was just here in Toronto.

00:26:30.360 I spoke to people who were in meetings with him.

00:26:32.120 They said, he's bright, he's sharp, he gets it.

00:26:35.520 But, you know, he'll never get the nomination 1.00

00:26:36.960 because he's Jewish. 0.85

00:26:38.760 And if it's a J.D. Vance,

00:26:41.280 well, that's not a friend to Israel

00:26:43.040 on the Republican side.

00:26:44.180 So do they ever get a friend in the White House again?

00:26:48.920 Look, American politics has been going through such incredible polarization that it's almost amazing Israel managed to remain a bipartisan issue for so long, because nothing is bipartisan, maybe except for opposition to this Iran deal with Republicans and Democrats alike saying that it is a bad deal.

00:27:08.260 But Israelis look at the American map and they see who the likely candidates are. And if it's Joe Shapiro versus Marco Rubio, then the future of the America-Israel relationship is going to be safe.

00:27:18.920 If it's J.D. Vance versus AOC, then God help us, because no one thinks that either of them is particularly friendly to Israel.

00:27:30.960 AOC representing the radical left of the Democratic Party and J.D. Vance increasingly sounding like Tucker Carlson, for example.

00:27:39.480 One of the reasons that Netanyahu now is eager to end America's military aid to Israel and shift towards a model of partnership is an understanding that we don't know who the next president is going to be and whether there's going to be an option to renew that military aid as well.

00:27:57.620 You have to end your dependence on the United States if the United States is no longer a firm, unshakable supporter, and this is subject to domestic politics.

00:28:10.720 I think Canada is learning something very similar as well, having relied for a very long time, almost unthinkingly, on the stability and friendship with the United States, suddenly realizing that actually domestic politics there can very wildly shape Canada's relations with the United States.

00:28:26.740 So in Israel, it's the same thing. There's an understanding that Israel will have to reduce its arms dependence on the United States. That will have many advantages. It allows Israeli industries to compete in a way that they couldn't when they were tied to American supply chains. But Israel will have to reduce its dependence on American arms because this whole issue has become very soured and very polarized within American politics.

00:28:52.080 Elon, thanks so much as always

00:28:54.640 A quick break and when we come back

00:28:56.460 an interview with a former Israeli

00:28:58.440 defense intelligence officer who says

00:29:00.380 this deal's bad but it's

00:29:02.480 the outcome of a war that was waged

00:29:04.660 badly. Back in moments

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00:29:33.340 shell.ca slash loyalty for full details you're a political junkie right i mean that's why you're

00:29:39.960 listening to this podcast but if you're not in the loop with post media's vip political hack

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00:29:50.780 I'm Stuart Thompson, Parliamentary Bureau Chief.

00:29:53.380 And I'm political analyst Tasha Carradine.

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00:30:45.100 So much is happening in politics right now.

00:30:48.100 Rising tensions with the U.S. on trade and defense.

00:30:50.980 Not one, but two provincial separatist movements gaining real ground.

00:30:55.480 The liberals trying to hang on to a razor-thin majority

00:30:59.000 as the economy stumbles and with the cost of living still rising.

00:31:03.220 It's exciting.

00:31:04.200 Extremely exciting.

00:31:05.460 But the only way to get behind the scenes

00:31:07.300 and right into the source code of what politicians and the people around them are really thinking

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00:31:17.020 And join us.

00:31:18.180 If it weren't for the United States of America, with me, because Obama was the opposite, 0.62

00:31:23.560 Israel would not exist right now.

00:31:25.280 Israel would have been blown off the face of the earth, 100%. 1.00

00:31:27.700 And every smart person in Israel knows that.

00:31:30.200 Donald Trump sending more messages to the Israeli government through the media.

00:31:34.500 We've heard from the political side with Elon Levy.

00:31:36.800 Now, what about the security side and how this war was prosecuted, which ultimately led to this deal?

00:31:42.920 Danny Satrenowicz served 25 years in a variety of command positions with the Israeli Defense Intelligence Unit,

00:31:49.020 including head of the Iran branch, doing research and analysis.

00:31:53.240 We've heard critics call this deal with Iran a surrender by the Americans, a betrayal of Israel,

00:31:59.240 a deal that actually makes Iran stronger.

00:32:01.640 But you've said this is a return to reality over wishful thinking.

00:32:07.360 What do you mean by that?

00:32:08.600 And are those other assessments that America failed, lost, or has been humiliated by Iran,

00:32:15.320 are those assessments incorrect in your view?

00:32:19.000 Well, I think that eventually this deal is a straight connection to the results of the war.

00:32:26.220 And in the war, Iran managed to overcome Israel and the U.S. 0.85

00:32:31.680 the regime has not been toppled, and also controlling the artery of the international 0.88

00:32:37.440 economy.

00:32:38.700 So in that regard, I don't think that the U.S. did have ever had some sort of another

00:32:44.060 opportunity or options to do the opposite.

00:32:47.660 So the deal is the only option that they had.

00:32:50.720 Now, again, U.S. and Israel failed in the war.

00:32:55.080 They had operational achievements, but eventually they didn't topple the regime.

00:32:58.640 and the regime still had the ability to hit Israel, the U.S.,

00:33:02.640 U.S. presence in the region and, of course, the Gulf states.

00:33:06.000 So in that regard, the deal is really a reflection of results of the war.

00:33:09.880 Now, I really think that even before the war,

00:33:12.880 the expectations were exaggerated in a way that, you know,

00:33:17.940 everything related to the ballistic missile and proxies.

00:33:20.020 And I think you had to have a war to return back to basics,

00:33:24.060 at least from the U.S. side,

00:33:25.180 the understanding that you have to be realistic in what you demand.

00:33:28.340 And I think this is actually what happened after the war.

00:33:30.540 So, yes, from this kind of a loss, definitely a strategic loss to the U.S. and Israel, 0.65

00:33:35.460 came a deal that actually reflects that, a deal that's strengthening the regime.

00:33:40.000 It is part of the problem with the war that the objectives weren't necessarily clear for all those involved.

00:33:48.740 You know, regime change, you mentioned that.

00:33:50.480 That was clearly a desire of the Netanyahu administration in Israel.

00:33:55.100 It was less clear that that was a desire for the Trump administration.

00:34:00.380 They would vacillate on that.

00:34:01.940 They'd go back and forth.

00:34:03.600 Is that part of the problem with how the war was prosecuted?

00:34:07.540 They knew they wanted to hit Iran hard, but did they have clear enough objectives?

00:34:14.340 Well, I think that both sides on the 20th of February thought the same thing, meaning

00:34:20.760 that Israel, for the first time in history, killed a foreign leader not to have a good

00:34:26.620 nuclear deal, that the Iranians would dilute the nuclear material. 0.76

00:34:30.620 We went to the top of the regime. 0.90

00:34:31.800 And also, from the U.S. side, it was obvious.

00:34:34.580 You can say whatever you want in that perspective.

00:34:37.700 But everybody knew, you know, just return back to what Trump said the day of the war.

00:34:41.960 It will be yours to take.

00:34:43.820 Lay down your arms.

00:34:44.760 Definitely, the purpose was not to reach a good nuclear deal.

00:34:50.160 And after three, four days, I think Trump understood that it's not going anywhere in that regard.

00:34:56.120 But I think the bigger mistake is the war itself.

00:34:58.620 It's not only the targets. 0.99

00:35:00.240 I think the war was hubris, especially by Israel. 0.99

00:35:04.020 What do you mean by that? 1.00

00:35:05.620 But we really saw that after 7th of October, with all our achievements, especially after the 12-day war,

00:35:11.060 that we are able to change the regime for the good. 0.82

00:35:13.460 We were able to change the direction of the Islamic Republic by utilizing their weakness, definitely after demonstrations in Iran. 0.67

00:35:23.260 And I think we underestimated the resilience, overestimated our firepower. 0.85

00:35:27.640 And this is where we got. 0.81

00:35:29.000 And I think for Israel, it's much worse than the U.S.

00:35:31.540 Because for Israel, it's really the collapse of those strategies that led Netanyahu regarding Iran.

00:35:36.600 So this war was a problem for the beginning with.

00:35:39.580 And after that, the purposes of the war were bad.

00:35:41.800 And again, at the end of the day, we are paying the price for the flood preparation that we had.

00:35:49.060 In terms of damage done to the regime, the Americans are saying, look, we inflicted a lot of pain.

00:35:55.840 We inflicted a lot of damage.

00:35:57.940 I'm sure if I looked, I'd find Prime Minister Netanyahu saying the same thing.

00:36:04.780 Others are saying, no, the regime's shown that they can stick around.

00:36:08.580 They're stronger.

00:36:09.140 The IRGC is stronger.

00:36:11.800 What's your assessment? How much damage was done to the regime? And, you know, even if they lost a lot of military assets, do they have a victory in terms of being able to come out of this saying, we face down the great Satan and we're still here?

00:36:31.780 Well, I think it's a little bit of both.

00:36:35.180 Operationally, definitely, there were significant achievements, I have to say that. 0.89

00:36:38.780 Definitely in terms of decapitating the senior leadership and, of course, damaging the force buildup of Iran. 0.95

00:36:44.620 Israel and definitely the U.S. made significant ground in depriving the Iranic abilities to manufacture missiles. 0.90

00:36:51.560 Now, there we turn back to it. 0.98

00:36:53.480 But effectively, that caused a major damage and also the economical damage that Israel created by attacking the petrochemical power plants and others.

00:37:02.900 I think this has definitely caused mountain problems for Iran, especially on the economical side.

00:37:09.460 And we have to remember that Iran entered this war in a very bad economical situation. 0.97

00:37:13.520 So definitely, we had achievements by attacking them every day and every night. 1.00

00:37:18.340 I'm not underestimating that. 0.95

00:37:19.680 The problem is it's not accumulating in a strategic effect, meaning that despite everything that we did, despite all the hundreds of missiles or thousands of missiles being thrown against Iran, at the end of the day, they managed to overcome because they have underground capabilities. 0.59

00:37:34.520 So they preserved the ability to launch missiles on Israel, on the Gulf states, and the leadership survived and managed to overcome the death of decapitation on the Khamenei. 0.57

00:37:43.680 So definitely there were operational achievements.

00:37:46.120 The problem is, of course, that didn't accumulate to the strategic effect that we wanted, meaning

00:37:49.960 toppling the regime.

00:37:50.780 And once you're putting that as your main purpose, definitely, despite everything that

00:37:55.260 you did, you actually failed in the war.

00:37:58.120 At the beginning of the war, there was no light between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.

00:38:03.120 You definitely can't say that now.

00:38:04.900 We've seen some of it break out in the open.

00:38:06.880 And while some are saying, no, no, no, the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is

00:38:11.480 still good.

00:38:12.580 Clearly, that's not the case.

00:38:14.800 What's your assessment on this?

00:38:16.280 How has this war changed the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem or Tel Aviv?

00:38:23.020 And is it long-term, this change?

00:38:26.540 Well, definitely until the war, the relationships were very good.

00:38:30.220 I think Netanyahu actually was highly dependent on Trump because he's actually the last, I think, foreign leader that he can actually speak to.

00:38:37.560 And definitely when he's a U.S. president, it has a lot of benefit from the U.S. side and also from the Israeli side.

00:38:44.180 And also Netanyahu, depending on Trump personally because of everything related to the pardon discussion regarding his trial.

00:38:53.440 But the problem is for Netanyahu is that he forgot one thing.

00:38:57.420 Trump likes quick wins.

00:38:59.160 He doesn't like prolonged wins.

00:39:00.960 He likes to have winners and not losers.

00:39:03.640 And what happened in the war that President Netanyahu offered him a half-baked plan, 0.52

00:39:09.500 probably Netanyahu thought, yeah, it's not complete, but maybe, you know, we'll start the war and everything will be good.

00:39:14.720 At the end of the day, we failed. 0.51

00:39:16.220 Hamoud's trade was something that Trump couldn't let go.

00:39:19.240 He had to reach an agreement.

00:39:20.080 And that put Netanyahu in a very problematic situation where he perceived in Washington

00:39:24.760 as someone that's trying to prevent the deal from happening by allowing Israel to strike in Lebanon.

00:39:29.600 But even worse than that, not only in the administration,

00:39:32.780 in the Congress. Israel has 0.98

00:39:34.760 much in power in terms of how it's perceived in the

00:39:36.780 U.S. public and the U.S. policymakers.

00:39:39.200 So we have a main

00:39:40.760 major problem when now

00:39:42.720 the U.S. president actually

00:39:44.600 changed his views regarding Netanyahu. I'm not saying

00:39:46.460 that he's not going to support Netanyahu, but the problem

00:39:48.600 for Netanyahu is that if Netanyahu will

00:39:50.520 continue doing things that will be perceived in

00:39:52.620 Washington as trying to undermine the agreement,

00:39:54.960 then I think that Trump will be very

00:39:56.660 angry and will take actions against Israel.

00:39:58.900 So now I don't think that there is 0.79

00:40:00.640 alignment between them. How much

00:40:02.600 does this change Netanyahu's support within Israeli society?

00:40:09.640 Well, Netanyahu has multiple problems over here.

00:40:13.560 Now, I have to say something about that, a caveat.

00:40:16.860 Most of the people that will vote Netanyahu don't think it will matter for them what happened

00:40:20.640 in Iran.

00:40:21.700 But Netanyahu thought that he can utilize everything happening in Iran to win mandates,

00:40:26.500 and I think that we have a very close race.

00:40:28.620 But now it's actually the opposite.

00:40:29.820 He's been attacked from the left because of the failure, and from the right, from his ability to counter or not to counter the U.S. president regarding Lebanon. 0.55

00:40:38.860 Now, I don't think it would change much in terms of the election if Netanyahu decide to run, but I think that definitely he cannot enjoy that win.

00:40:45.920 On the contrary, and as someone that perceived the mystery run in Israel, it would be very hard to overcome, especially when people in Israel understand the failure.

00:40:54.040 So I definitely cannot utilize that.

00:40:56.800 He cannot use that for its own good.

00:40:58.800 And whether it's going to influence that in a bad way, probably, but I don't think it

00:41:03.740 will be, I think it will be on the margins.

00:41:05.860 If you want, if you vote Netanyahu, you couldn't kill us about that.

00:41:08.580 But then we have to wait and see what will happen in the next couple of months.

00:41:12.220 In terms of broader Israeli society, some I've spoken to say, well, Israelis feel betrayed

00:41:17.840 by Donald Trump.

00:41:19.300 There was a lot of love for Trump before.

00:41:21.260 Now it's a sense of betrayal.

00:41:24.060 In your view, is that a widespread viewpoint?

00:41:27.040 point well it depends if you are support netanyahu you'll be against trump and if against netanyahu

00:41:34.120 will be against netanyahu not against trump i think you have to remember one thing uh president

00:41:39.200 trump is a president of the united states of america it's not a president of israel that's

00:41:42.780 what some people in israel thought he think the u.s interest not the israeli interest

00:41:47.980 sometimes they are aligned but they're not aligned israel couldn't care less about the

00:41:51.520 most trades but for for trump it was everything and people in israel don't understand that

00:41:56.100 so i think you know uh i i thought highly of trump you know releasing the hostages but i knew from

00:42:01.220 the beginning at the end of the day when push comes to shove he would choose the american

00:42:04.820 interest and that's because the u.s president in israel people find it very hard to believe

00:42:10.460 that because when you're being pushed all the time you know netaniel pushed trump let's get

00:42:14.540 the israeli prize for him and let's give him this and that so really people thought that he's

00:42:18.940 synonymous with everything that netanyahu will say and now they're surprised why you're surprised

00:42:22.840 when definitely will do what goods for the u.s and even if it's not aligned with israel so be it for

00:42:27.520 him let's talk about the actual deal supporters of the trump deal say there are checks and balances

00:42:34.740 uh in the deal that put limits on tehran there's been a lot of discussion around the three billion

00:42:41.300 300 billion dollars um and the funds and who controls that you say your main concern is around

00:42:48.040 the controls on the nuclear program. Iran has proven itself untrustworthy on this issue in the

00:42:54.240 past. How many times have they lied to or evaded inspections? So how do you construct a nuclear

00:43:01.980 oversight program that the rest of the world can have confidence in? That's a very good question.

00:43:08.480 I think first we have to say it's a bad deal. It's not a good deal. It's a bad deal because

00:43:12.460 Iran is giving very little and get a lot, especially in waivers regarding selling oil and

00:43:17.260 and the unfreezing of their assets.

00:43:20.780 And it's a bad deal,

00:43:22.680 but it was the only possible way

00:43:24.460 for the U.S. to end the war.

00:43:26.660 So it was a bad deal.

00:43:28.540 It is a bad deal,

00:43:29.320 but it's the only path to move forward.

00:43:31.580 So it is what it is.

00:43:33.180 No discussion on the ballistic missiles,

00:43:35.360 no discussion on proxies.

00:43:37.000 I knew it was not realistic from the beginning,

00:43:39.400 but in Israel, people thought that maybe Trump

00:43:41.180 would assist with that.

00:43:42.360 Obviously, it will not.

00:43:43.380 Now, the nuclear is a major thing 0.95

00:43:45.040 because the only way for Iran to threaten on an extension level, 0.93

00:43:50.680 Israel and the Gulf States, is the nuclear. 0.84

00:43:52.960 So we have to be very active in thinking how we can block the path of Iran to Obama.

00:43:58.260 Now, my concern is that, you know, Witkoff and Kushner,

00:44:01.140 they already said they're not really the experts in that regard. 1.00

00:44:03.760 And the Iranians are masters in finding loopholes in any agreement. 0.50

00:44:07.220 So I think the most important thing going into negotiations 1.00

00:44:09.520 is to have a team of experts that really will close everything 1.00

00:44:13.600 because, as you said, we cannot trust the Iranians in nothing. 1.00

00:44:17.300 Yes, I have to say one thing about the IAEA inspector regime. 0.99

00:44:20.900 It's a robust, important—when it was in Iran, it was very effective. 1.00

00:44:25.020 But we cannot trust the Iranians. 1.00

00:44:26.180 This is why we have to build this kind of robust and effective inspector regime 1.00

00:44:30.480 that will prevent Iranians from moving forward 1.00

00:44:32.720 because we have to admit that they move forward a lot

00:44:34.920 after Trump decides to leave the JCPOA.

00:44:38.800 So I'm not trusting anyone and any one of them, 0.75

00:44:41.180 But I do believe they can rebuild some sort of a good and robust inspection regime while you have the IEA involved and other experts that will block any path of Iran to move into a bomb. 0.73

00:44:52.980 Longer term, you've written that the path to regional stabilization, essentially peace, runs through Ramallah, not Tehran.

00:45:01.440 What do you mean by that?

00:45:03.220 Well, you know, in Israel, especially another failure, I think, by Netanyahu, and not only

00:45:07.440 Netanyahu, but Netanyahu, it's just the way of thinking that we'll focus on Iran, and 0.85

00:45:11.860 then it will allow us to move toward the realization of Saudi Arabia.

00:45:15.980 I think this war proved again and again that this strategy is a flawed strategy that built 0.99

00:45:22.820 on untrustworthy states that's coming from people that do not understand the Middle East. 0.96

00:45:29.420 the only way that the Saudis will move forward on normalization with Israel 0.83

00:45:33.220 will be a real advancement that Israel will do on the Palestinian route. 0.70

00:45:38.080 Now, I have to emphasize one of the things regarding that. 0.81

00:45:41.680 I think maybe from the failure of this war,

00:45:43.800 maybe people will understand that in Israel, but especially in the U.S.,

00:45:48.200 that the only way to move that is not through Iran and hitting Iran

00:45:52.500 because that won't change anything.

00:45:53.820 On the contrary, Israel is perceived by the Gulf states

00:45:56.200 as another main element within the region.

00:45:58.080 But moving forward on the Palestinian issue 1.00

00:46:00.180 I think it's good for us 1.00

00:46:01.240 Preventing a one-state reality

00:46:03.120 But also allow us to move forward

00:46:04.980 And there's not going to be 1.00

00:46:05.920 An normalization with the Saudis 1.00

00:46:07.440 That will open the way for Israel 1.00

00:46:09.120 To normalization with all of the Sunni world 1.00

00:46:10.920 Unless Israel will do something 1.00

00:46:12.640 Concrete and substantial with the Palestinians 1.00

00:46:14.820 Israel government 1.00

00:46:16.060 They don't want to do that

00:46:17.560 They want to focus on Iran

00:46:18.860 Iran is easier

00:46:19.880 It's one everybody hates 1.00

00:46:20.980 But at the end of the day

00:46:22.320 They will have to return back to the drawing board

00:46:24.000 And focus on the Palestinian issue 0.94

00:46:25.520 Otherwise you won't see any agreement 0.88

00:46:27.700 And I'm hoping for the Washington side that they will insist on that, influence that, because otherwise we'll have a continuation of the current situation that we have right now.

00:46:38.560 Danny, thanks so much.

00:46:40.580 Thank you very much for having me.

00:46:41.900 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:46:44.100 My name is Brian Lilly, your host.

00:46:45.560 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.

00:46:47.580 Theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:46:49.440 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

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00:46:58.480 Until next time, thanks for listening.

00:47:00.640 I'm Brian Lilly.

00:47:04.580 You're a political junkie, right?

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00:48:12.740 So much is happening in politics right now.

00:48:15.220 Rising tensions with the U.S. on trade and defense

00:48:18.720 Not one, but two provincial separatist movements gaining real ground

00:48:22.840 The liberals trying to hang on to a razor-thin majority

00:48:26.660 as the economy stumbles and with the cost of living still rising

00:48:30.580 It's exciting

00:48:31.520 Extremely exciting

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Full Comment - June 22, 2026

Here comes the big U.S.-Israel split

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