Full Comment - July 08, 2024


Here’s what it’s like living under Hezbollah’s constant attacks


Episode Stats

Length

39 minutes

Words per Minute

142.29239

Word Count

5,687

Sentence Count

417

Hate Speech Sentences

49


Summary

There is another front that has been active since October 7th on Israel s northern border, and one that hasn t received as much attention, but has started to warm up recently. And the question is, how long will Israel allow Hezbollah to continue firing rockets and missiles across that northern border before they start to retaliate in a more fulsome way? To talk more about this and discuss where things are at and where they might go, Zvi Sahavi is a retired IDF officer and the founder and president of the Alma Center, a group that helps displaced people return home.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 The war in Israel, the one between Israel and Hamas, is something that has caught the world's
00:00:13.060 attention, but things are about to shift and shift quite dramatically. Hello, I'm Brian Lilly. Welcome
00:00:18.320 to the Full Comment podcast. There is another front that has been active since October 7th
00:00:23.820 on Israel's northern border. It's one that hasn't received as much attention, but has started to
00:00:28.540 warm up recently. And the question is, how long does Israel allow Hezbollah to be shooting rockets
00:00:35.940 and missiles, among other weapons, over that northern border before they start to retaliate
00:00:41.800 in a more fulsome way? To talk more about this and discuss where things are at and where they
00:00:47.200 might go is Zaret Sahavi. She is a retired IDF officer and the founder and president of the
00:00:54.680 Alma Centers. Sari, thanks for the time today. Thank you for having me.
00:01:00.220 You're situated in Galilee. You are near the northern border. When I visited you a few months
00:01:06.520 ago, you took myself and others up to the border. We could see into Lebanon. And at that time,
00:01:12.800 there was indiscriminate missiles, rockets, different weapons being fired across the border.
00:01:18.540 What's the situation like now on the northern border?
00:01:23.080 Today specifically was a rough day. Since yesterday morning, Israel eliminated one of the
00:01:30.960 most senior commanders of Hezbollah, which is like a commander of a division of one of the three
00:01:37.840 divisions of Hezbollah in South Lebanon, and he's the second one to be killed. And Hezbollah retaliated
00:01:43.560 with around 30 attacks in the past 48 hours. And it caused a lot of fires over here up north since
00:01:53.760 it's a hot summer day and every heat of a rocket in open areas, in an area that relatively to the
00:02:00.720 rest of Israel, and there are more trees and it's more green than elsewhere. Today, it is becoming more
00:02:07.920 black. It's lush at times throughout Galilee.
00:02:13.460 Yes. And now it's black. Now the forests are burned.
00:02:18.240 Are these fires just being started by the missiles and rockets coming across? Or is Hezbollah also
00:02:24.280 purposely starting forest fires as part of their military operation against Israel?
00:02:30.420 All of the above. It is purposely starting fires by launching rockets to these places. This is
00:02:39.780 exactly what it is doing. We had today, only this morning, a barrage of 200 rockets that were launched
00:02:48.340 from Lebanon to Israel and 20 drones to all over northern Israel in a range of all along the borderline,
00:02:56.940 which is around 100 kilometers. And the range into Israel was maximum of 30 kilometers.
00:03:06.220 In Israeli terms, that's a lot. That's a lot of people that went to shelters today.
00:03:13.020 The area right next to the border has been evacuated. But my understanding is that's only about
00:03:20.460 the first five to six kilometers. Less. Is that correct? Zero to five, yes. Less.
00:03:27.180 That's 60,000 Israelis.
00:03:30.620 60,000 people. They were evacuated just after October 7th. Have they been back to their homes at all?
00:03:38.380 Or is it nine months of living in hotels?
00:03:42.860 Most of them didn't go back to their homes. Very few came back to live. Very, very few.
00:03:53.260 Some of those who stayed are farmers that have to take care of their orchards that are now being
00:03:58.700 burned by Hezbollah. Or cows or chickens, many of them. Agriculture is one of the main providers here.
00:04:05.740 And I agreed that out of the 60,000, maybe a third or a quarter stayed in hotels.
00:04:13.500 Many others, they didn't come back. They just rented apartments elsewhere or find other residential solutions.
00:04:21.980 And they have tons of problems around that with education and providing us. Israel is compensating them,
00:04:34.460 but there is no compensation for the loss of an educational system, school, the friends, the family problems,
00:04:46.380 the feeling that you are meaningless. You don't have a job. You cannot provide for your family.
00:04:55.020 We tried to support them. Many of them left everything behind. Most of them left everything
00:04:59.100 behind. Even if they rented apartments, they had to start from scratch.
00:05:04.940 So let me ask you who these people are, because we've got the protests in our streets here. We had an
00:05:11.260 encampment just a couple of blocks from where I'm sitting right now at the University of Toronto that
00:05:16.220 was just recently dispersed. And if you listen to the protesters, they will tell you that, well,
00:05:23.660 Israel is an apartheid state. Israel grants no rights to anybody else except Jews.
00:05:32.380 And Jed, I recall standing with you and you saying, well, that's a Christian village. That's a Muslim
00:05:37.660 village. This one's mixed. That one's Jews and Christians and Muslims all together. Tell me who
00:05:42.940 lives in this area that has been evacuated for nine months now. Who has seen their life displaced?
00:05:50.220 The Galilee in general, which is not just the evacuees, is very diverse. Actually,
00:05:56.220 the Jews are the minority in the Galilee. 53% of the population of Northern Israel.
00:06:01.980 Israel. And when I'm saying Northern Israel, I mean about 30 kilometers from the border,
00:06:09.260 up to 30 kilometers from the border. It's about 53% are non-Jewish, which is composed of Muslim
00:06:16.700 Christians, Druze, which is a very small sect that departed from Islam 1,000 years ago. And they live
00:06:24.620 in this region, in Lebanon, Syria, Israel, a bit of Jordan. And Jews, four sects in general.
00:06:33.500 Among the displaced, the 60,000, we have one Muslim Bedouin town that got a lot of damages and
00:06:43.020 Hezbollah targeted many times. And many of them came back, even though they are under fire.
00:06:49.900 We have an Alawite town, which is another sect that departed from Islam centuries ago,
00:06:58.060 but it is part of the Assad family in Syria. But here, they are completely against them,
00:07:05.900 and they are citizens of Israel. And their town is also targeted all the time.
00:07:12.220 Hezbollah is a Muslim militia, a Muslim political movement. But they don't care that they are
00:07:20.220 targeting Muslims inside Israel, do they?
00:07:22.700 No, it doesn't matter. For them, it just doesn't matter.
00:07:27.100 Are they seen as traitors because they're inside Israel?
00:07:33.580 Yes. In their plans, they thought they may be able to collaborate with them if they will invade
00:07:41.580 the invasion play that Hezbollah published to occupy the Gali a decade ago. They thought they
00:07:48.220 will get collaboration of the Arabs in Israel over here in the Gali. But at the same time,
00:07:54.060 they don't care bombing them. In previous wars, we had casualties here in the Arab towns, just
00:08:00.780 next to where I live. We had a few casualties from the same family, a few women that were killed.
00:08:10.700 There is a Druze town not far from where I am that a few weeks ago, there was a drone attack
00:08:15.900 there against IDF soldiers that were next to the town. These things happen every day.
00:08:22.060 And we live together. And of course, there are players. I want to portray the whole reality,
00:08:29.500 which is very complex here. We live together. We are very proud of living together here.
00:08:35.500 And yet, yesterday, there was a stabbing attack in a town south to where I am from an Arab that
00:08:48.140 came from the nearby Arab town. He just crossed the street to the mall, and he stabbed two soldiers,
00:08:54.540 and he killed one of them. And the soldier that was stabbed and died from his wounds and succeeded in
00:09:01.740 killing the murderer and actually rescuing all the other people in the mall. For us, this is a terrible
00:09:07.580 incident because it tries to undermine the very unique way of life here of people that actually
00:09:16.460 accept each other and live together. But these things also happen.
00:09:23.900 Is there any indication of, well, I guess if things are warming up, there's probably not a plan to
00:09:33.900 bring back the people who live in that first five or so kilometers. What about the people in the rest?
00:09:39.660 You said that there are attacks going 30 kilometers deep. Will more people be evacuated? Or what is the plan for them?
00:09:48.780 Look, I live nine kilometers from the border. We are not evacuated. And the country, my community
00:09:56.460 absorbed displaced people from those areas that were evacuated. And we had sirens here.
00:10:02.620 And the whole region, again, the whole region today was on fire. It was a pretty crazy day. But it's an
00:10:09.420 example to the reality here. And most of the Hezbollah attacks are to the areas that are evacuated, like 90
00:10:17.340 something percent. But at the same time, the attacks of Hezbollah, which are not to the areas that are
00:10:23.660 evacuated, are attacks of rockets. And these are launched in barrages or attacks of drones that
00:10:30.780 send many people to shelters once they cross into Israel. So it's a huge disturbance of life,
00:10:37.980 also for those who were not evacuated and live next to the Israeli-Lebanese border. So in general,
00:10:45.500 we can say that life is not normal here in the north since October 8. And for your question about the
00:10:52.540 plan, we don't know what's the plan. I'm telling you the truth. We feel here that the Israeli government is
00:10:59.660 not interested in protecting us and escalating the situation in a way that will actually bring
00:11:10.220 the elimination of the threat on the Lebanese side and the threat posed by Hezbollah.
00:11:15.980 And we feel that the Israeli government prefers an agreement.
00:11:18.860 Well, I want to talk about should there be a fuller war in a moment. But first, let me ask you about
00:11:27.500 something you said there. You mentioned that most of the attacks from Hezbollah are into areas that are
00:11:32.620 evacuated. They know that they're evacuated as well. Why do you think they would be launching there instead
00:11:40.140 of attacking your town or the next town down the street? Are they trying to see how much they can
00:11:47.740 poke Israel? You know, poke the bear as opposed to doing something that would provoke a full-scale
00:11:55.100 attack on them?
00:11:55.820 Well, two reasons. First, there are military forces in those areas, and they are attacking. Today,
00:12:04.220 Hezbollah announced that it attacked 14 IDF bases. It's a good example to what's happening,
00:12:12.140 what happened today, because Hezbollah says, we attacked 14 IDF bases. That's why we attack areas
00:12:19.420 which are displaced, areas that are evacuated. But at the same time, it didn't use accurate weapon.
00:12:26.220 So the rockets, 200 rockets spread all over the place and caused a lot of damages. Now, just before
00:12:34.780 I came online, I heard that one soldier was killed. The second reason is that, as you said,
00:12:41.260 Hezbollah is interested in preserving the current situation and not enabling
00:12:45.740 those are displaced to go back to their homes and pushing Israel to the limits.
00:12:54.860 Eventually, Hezbollah was fully prepared to war before October 6. And I think that what the strategy
00:13:03.500 today is trying to either push Israel to initiate a war or just continue this war of attrition
00:13:12.460 that has its own advantages in the eyes of Hezbollah with regard to the Israeli society and resilience
00:13:19.100 and economy. And that's the overall rationality of this campaign, of this Iranian campaign,
00:13:24.380 is to create a war of attrition against the state of Israel.
00:13:28.020 You've used terms rockets, drones, missiles. Those of us living in the West that haven't lived in a war zone
00:13:34.620 are going to hear these terms and say, I don't really know what that is. Or I have an idea,
00:13:41.420 but is that really what it is? Can you help describe for us what kind of weapons they are using?
00:13:51.500 What is a rocket as opposed to a missile or the anti-tank missiles that are fairly accurate?
00:13:57.820 You said that they're not using accurate. I know that they do have anti-tank weapons. So what kind
00:14:04.700 of rocket is the type of thing that Hamas uses, where they've just taken pipe that was meant for
00:14:10.940 their water system and cut it into makeshift rockets? Is that what Hezbollah is using as well?
00:14:16.380 Or are they kitted out with very sophisticated weapons from their masters in Tehran?
00:14:21.900 It depends. Hezbollah is using various types. I'll start with the anti-tank missiles that you
00:14:27.900 mentioned. There is no connection to tanks. They are not targeting tanks necessarily. They are
00:14:33.420 targeting whatever. Homes, orchards, workers, farmers in the fields, soldiers, IDF positions,
00:14:41.660 sometimes tanks, whatever, are very accurate. Their full range is 10 kilometers, maybe even more
00:14:47.980 than that. Until today, they used around 10 kilometers range. We don't have a defensive answer
00:14:53.580 to this because anti-tank missiles cannot be intercepted by Iron Dome and we don't have alerts
00:14:59.500 before they hit. So that's a true problem and it's one of the main reasons that we cannot bring the
00:15:04.700 people back home. There is no way they will feel safe as long as Hezbollah is launching these. And these
00:15:10.940 are launched every game, maybe including now because I hear some blasts outside. That's one type.
00:15:17.660 The second type I want to talk about is the drones or actually UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles.
00:15:25.180 Not very big, not very expensive. $20,000 to each drone like that can carry up to 40 kilograms of
00:15:33.900 explosives. Maybe they actually carry less than that. They are very accurate.
00:15:39.020 So that type of drone, it's not the type that we would buy in a Walmart for kids to play with.
00:15:46.620 No, that's not the small one.
00:15:47.820 A camera up above. And it's also not the type the Americans have where it's manned by someone
00:15:54.380 who is a trained fighter pilot. It's in between.
00:15:57.260 It's in between, even though they do have the small drones that you talked about.
00:16:01.740 But at least what is being published that Hezbollah is using here, in most cases,
00:16:06.620 these are actually actual drones, but not the most sophisticated ones, not the biggest ones that
00:16:12.780 you saw maybe in the media, like what we have, for example, Israel. And these are launched again
00:16:21.500 every day. And they got better in the past few months. And there was an increase in the amount
00:16:27.900 of attacks of drones in the past few months. And rapid increase, like from 10 attacks to
00:16:35.580 almost 100. And something really unbelievable with the amount of drones attacks that we experience
00:16:42.380 here. And they bypass and they are not always intercepted. And I can tell you that last Friday,
00:16:47.260 I saw it with my own eyes. I saw the jets and the Iron Dome and everybody tried to intercept the drones
00:16:54.220 from my balcony. And it was a beautiful sunset, but an unbelievable sight. And they missed. The drones
00:17:03.660 fell eventually. They were not intercepted. Two drones.
00:17:06.300 Do you mean to say that you or your area is experiencing up to 100 attacks a day?
00:17:16.940 No, not 100 attacks a day, a month. A month, 100 attacks a month of drones. Average could be less.
00:17:25.980 The average attacks of every month is around between 250 to 320. And we counted in every
00:17:36.140 map. The numbers are different, but that's the average to all of the area.
00:17:42.380 That's several attacks a day.
00:17:44.940 Yes, that's several attacks a day. Exactly.
00:17:48.860 So we've talked about the anti-tank missiles, which are not used on tanks, the drones. And then
00:17:56.780 what else do they have? Are they using the Hamas-style...
00:18:00.060 Yes. So when I'm talking about...
00:18:02.060 Makeshift rockets, or what are they getting from Tehran as well?
00:18:05.580 So when I'm talking about 200... First, we know that some of the Hezbollah arsenal
00:18:11.820 is manufactured in Tehran, in Iran, not necessarily Tehran. Some of it is manufactured in Syria,
00:18:18.140 to shorten the routes of smuggling. And some of it is manufactured in Lebanon.
00:18:23.580 Maybe drones are actually composed in Lebanon. Rockets, very probable option. Anti-tank missiles are
00:18:34.700 probably manufactured in Iran or in Syria, not even. Anyway, when we speak about the rockets that you
00:18:42.300 ask about. They have tens of thousands of these for various ranges. They are inaccurate. This is what
00:18:51.660 it's called statistic shooting. Some of them are at the quality of Hamas and others are better.
00:18:57.660 And so it's really various types of arsenal with various types. But they can be intercepted by Iron
00:19:07.660 Dome. That's the good news. The bad news is, as I've said, Iron Dome will not intercept rockets that are
00:19:13.420 about to fall in open areas, because every missile of Iron Dome worth $50,000. And we launch two in order
00:19:21.100 to intercept rockets and to make sure that we are not taking any chances. So eventually, you know, you're
00:19:29.100 trying to maximize the achievement and with regard to the costs. And that's why when they fall in open
00:19:35.980 areas like today, the Galilee and the Golan North and Israel actually burned today in so many fires. Like
00:19:43.260 25 teams of firefighters were trying to put off these fires everywhere in the North because of rockets that
00:19:50.300 fell in open areas and caused all these fires. And there is no 100%. We have many homes, tens of homes in
00:19:59.260 the North that were destroyed by rockets that fell in populated areas. Mostly, I think the majority in the
00:20:09.820 evacuated areas, meaning that there was very little damage to civilian life, but a lot of damage to property.
00:20:20.300 I want to get into this whole idea of should Israel go into all-out war with Hezbollah. We'll talk about
00:20:30.300 that when we come back. And also, I'll get you to, you know, give us an explainer on the connection
00:20:36.700 between Hezbollah and Iran. A connection that many people know about, but perhaps not how deep it is.
00:20:42.300 We'll talk about that when we come back. Sarit, I'm wondering if you could describe for us what Hezbollah
00:20:49.340 is. It's an organization that has been in the news in the West for decades. It comes and it goes. It's
00:20:56.780 not something that we live with on a daily basis. But this is a theocratic organization. It's an
00:21:04.700 organization based in Lebanon, but with deep ties to Iran. Where do they come from? What is their goal?
00:21:10.940 What are they pushing for now? Why are they attacking Israel?
00:21:14.620 I want to start with the goal, since you mentioned what's happening in Canada.
00:21:21.100 I don't know about Canada, but I saw in the protests in the United States,
00:21:26.860 people holding the yellow flags of Hezbollah. And people should know what does that mean.
00:21:32.060 When Hezbollah was established at the beginning of the 80s, it was founded as the Islamic revolution
00:21:42.700 in Lebanon. This was the title on the flag of Hezbollah. Islamic revolution in Lebanon means
00:21:50.140 to bring, to distribute the Islamic revolution values of Iran, of Khomeini,
00:21:54.380 into Lebanon. By the way, a project that succeeded. In the 90s, Hezbollah also became a political
00:22:04.940 party. And to date, it is completely embedded in the political system in Lebanon. It is a member of
00:22:12.620 the Lebanese government. I'll give you an example. There were publications about the fact that Hariri
00:22:19.340 the international airport in Beirut is used for smuggling of munitions to Hezbollah.
00:22:25.740 And then the Minister of Transportation denied that and brought journalists and ambassadors to
00:22:31.740 visit the airport. The Minister of Transportation is a Hezbollah member. He runs with the party of
00:22:39.020 Hezbollah in Lebanon in elections. There is no Lebanese government, because they couldn't
00:22:46.220 establish a coalition. There is no president in Lebanon. So Lebanon itself is a failed state
00:22:51.500 with a political and economic crisis. Hezbollah changed its flag in the 90s.
00:22:56.700 When we hear that, sorry, just a second. We hear that Hezbollah is part of the government,
00:23:02.380 but there isn't a functioning government. So how does that work?
00:23:06.060 It works with an interim government. There is a prime minister. There are ministers,
00:23:11.180 but they are not elected. And so Hezbollah is part of this, but they're not controlling everything.
00:23:18.060 No, they're not controlling everything. I wouldn't say that Hezbollah controls everything,
00:23:23.020 but I would say that beneath the surface, there is no political decision in Lebanon
00:23:28.220 that can be made without the concession of Hezbollah.
00:23:33.340 Which is very different from the way it was in the 80s and 90s.
00:23:36.620 And it's very different from the West, from any idea that we have on system of democracy,
00:23:43.820 on system of representation of the people. It doesn't work this way. There is the law and
00:23:50.620 there is the reality and there is a gap between them. When we talk about Hezbollah bombing Israel,
00:23:57.980 it's not the government of Lebanon. It's not the Lebanese army bombing Israel. It's the militia
00:24:04.540 belonging to the political party that's part of the government. Is that accurate?
00:24:09.820 Moreover, I agree. And I want to add and double. Moreover, it is also a social movement.
00:24:17.900 The reason that Hezbollah succeeded that much in using the Lebanese as human shields and hiding its
00:24:24.540 munition in Beirut International Airport, for example, or in the Shiite Muslim towns of South
00:24:30.780 Lebanon next to the border here, that's why they are being banned. It's because Hezbollah is a social
00:24:35.820 movement that changed its name from distribution of Islamic revolution to the Islamic resistance.
00:24:43.980 Resistance means resistance to Israel. Islamic means they want to create a Lebanese state that
00:24:50.140 also resists to Israel. That's it. That's eventually the end goal of Hezbollah.
00:24:54.380 What is a movement? A movement that provides every need of the population for food and fuel, electricity, water,
00:25:07.020 every community activity. Hezbollah is there for its people, for its own base. It replaced the Lebanese
00:25:14.460 government in this respect. And that's why it succeeded.
00:25:18.060 So is its power base in southern Lebanon, then, along the border?
00:25:26.060 Yes. Yes. Not only. In South Lebanon, in Beirut, and in the Baca Valley, not far from the Syrian border.
00:25:33.340 These are the areas of the Muslim Shiites of Lebanon.
00:25:37.260 And so there's the Sunni Muslims in Lebanon, the Shiite Muslims in Lebanon. They're about equal in terms of size.
00:25:44.700 No. No. No? Is that changed?
00:25:47.660 This was right two decades ago. Today, the assessments and its assessments, nobody knows the exact numbers,
00:25:55.980 is the Shiite Muslims of Lebanon are about half of the citizens of Lebanon.
00:26:00.700 Citizens. Lebanon is having between one to two million Syrian refugees that probably they are Sunnis,
00:26:09.340 but they are not citizens. We shouldn't be misled.
00:26:13.900 And then where is the Christian population in Lebanon?
00:26:16.620 About 20%.
00:26:17.740 Are they supportive of Hezbollah?
00:26:18.860 About 20%.
00:26:19.820 Down to 20%.
00:26:20.300 Most of them are against Hezbollah.
00:26:22.460 Most of them are against Hezbollah, but they don't have enough power to bring to a true change.
00:26:30.620 I'm sorry, that's the situation.
00:26:32.340 One of the things, no, no, no, this is why we're talking to you, because it is a vastly different
00:26:39.220 picture than what was there before.
00:26:41.060 Right.
00:26:42.420 One of the things that we hear about with the war down in Gaza is constantly this discussion of,
00:26:52.740 well, it's a war against Hamas, and Hamas is not the people of Gaza. And then you look at what the
00:27:01.300 people of Gaza support and you say, is that really true? So I want to ask you that about the areas along
00:27:08.180 the border specifically that Hezbollah controls. Is there a difference between Hezbollah and the people
00:27:15.940 that they govern? Are these people held hostage by Hezbollah or are they fully supportive of Hezbollah?
00:27:25.540 They are fully supportive of Hezbollah because Hezbollah is the people. Hezbollah is there. It's not a foreign
00:27:33.060 militia or foreign organization. It's a local organization that grew up. Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah,
00:27:40.180 comes from a family of South Lebanon. It is completely rooted in Lebanon. It adopted
00:27:50.020 a radical interpretation of the Shiite Islam of Iran. But it is a Lebanese organization,
00:27:58.580 a South Lebanese organization.
00:28:00.340 Well, how deep are the ties with Iran? Speaking with Sharon Haskell, a member of the Knesset a little
00:28:10.740 while ago, and she kept describing all of this as this is Iran's war, whether we're talking about
00:28:16.020 the fight with Hamas, the fight with Hezbollah, the fight with the Houthis in the Red Sea, said this is
00:28:22.420 Iran's war. Is Iran a controlling factor? Are they funders? Are they friends? How would you describe it?
00:28:30.740 The boss and the architects of everything that is happening. You know, I usually disagree with my
00:28:36.420 Knesset members, but this time I have to agree with them. Yes, the relationship between Hezbollah
00:28:44.900 and Iran are even deeper and closer than the relationship of Hamas with Iran.
00:28:54.500 But yet, all of it is part of the same campaign that the Iranians announced that they will open
00:29:02.180 against the State of Israel, and they named it, they branded it, other than name the Unification of
00:29:08.020 Fronts, before the War started, long before the War started. They said, they published that they are
00:29:15.220 building proxy militias all over the Middle East, in order to be capable to carry out this campaign,
00:29:24.180 Unification of Fronts, meaning to attack Israel from various fronts, South and North, East, and I
00:29:32.500 don't know, Yemen and Iraq and whatever. During the war, these messages will continue to be delivered
00:29:39.300 also by Hezbollah itself, and everything is with visuals and threads and videos and whatever,
00:29:44.820 a lot of PR around that. The relationship between Hezbollah and Iran is, you can compare it to a
00:29:51.380 relationship between an international company that Hezbollah is its most senior CEO. That's the
00:30:00.260 relationship. So they trust Hezbollah. They are a very good relationship. They listen to its needs,
00:30:08.420 to its considerations, to its interests. But at the same time, Iran is the boss. And it's a plan that
00:30:15.940 these proxy militias, especially Hezbollah, truly believe in. The leader of Hezbollah truly believe
00:30:21.940 in this ideology. He is ideologically motivated and his combatants are the same.
00:30:31.300 You mentioned earlier that there were a series of attacks over the last little bit because of
00:30:39.860 a senior Hezbollah leader being eliminated by Israel. They had a strike and took him out.
00:30:46.020 They appear to have taken out several senior Hezbollah. About 30.
00:30:50.900 Is that making a dent when you're taking out 30 members of a leadership team? Or are they just
00:30:57.940 so quickly replaced? It's a good question. I think it's too soon to say. But I must say that most of
00:31:06.180 those who were eliminated, or many of them, were senior that much that they were holding in their
00:31:13.220 positions for many years, which is very different. For example, if you compare it to the IDF,
00:31:20.100 officers are changing their positions every two, three years maximum. In Hezbollah, these guys were more
00:31:27.300 than 10 years in their positions. So definitely it's a loss and it has a meaning. And yet what we saw,
00:31:35.140 as I've said today, is that the same unit that its leader was assassinated yesterday, was killed
00:31:42.340 yesterday, executed these barrages of fire against us today. So they are capable of continuing the fire
00:31:52.340 against Israel. And it's not a solution. Killing commanders is important. It is damaging the
00:31:58.980 military capability of a terrorist organization like Hezbollah. But it is not eliminating the threat
00:32:07.140 from the Israeli-Lebanese border, the threat of rockets and everything we discussed, and the threat of
00:32:13.860 invasion for the long run. Maybe for now Hezbollah would not be interested to carry out a full-scale
00:32:19.460 invasion like Hamas had done in October 7th. But this motivation will exist. These capabilities
00:32:26.100 can be recovered once the fires stop. And I am very much worried of a scenario that after a few months
00:32:33.140 of a ceasefire, Hezbollah will take his turn to invade into Israel, according to the Iranian plan.
00:32:41.060 Are you able to fight the fires, actually, while the war is going on? Are they able to get in
00:32:50.740 there with water bombers or fire crews and deal with the fires? It's a challenge. There are areas that
00:32:57.700 the planes cannot fly, and it's a huge challenge. And that's why we have a lot of damages.
00:33:02.820 And as we speak, there are many fires that are still on the line, since the morning.
00:33:09.460 Okay. We had a statement come out from the National Council of Canadian Muslims, urging the Trudeau
00:33:16.500 government to speak out against the expansion of Netanyahu's war. That Netanyahu started a war,
00:33:26.660 in their view, in the South against Hamas. And now they're going to expand that war into Lebanon.
00:33:37.620 That obviously is the view of some people around the world. That is obviously not your view,
00:33:43.540 because you don't think that the Israeli government is doing enough for the people of Lebanon.
00:33:49.700 No, it's not my view, because we didn't start that. 1,200 Israelis were killed in October 7th. We didn't
00:33:57.220 start that. I understand that. I'm telling you what is being said here by people that have the ear of
00:34:04.260 the prime minister, unfortunately. But is Netanyahu or the Israeli government, are they doing enough for
00:34:14.420 the people of Northern Israel right now? No, they don't. They're not doing enough. People have been
00:34:21.220 away from their homes nine months. Nobody's doing enough. The world is not doing enough. Nobody's
00:34:25.700 doing enough. Lebanon is not doing enough. So what has to happen then? Does there need to be an invasion
00:34:33.620 of Southern Lebanon to beat back Hezbollah? Does there need to just be an air campaign to flatten
00:34:41.300 positions and essentially say, don't make us come back? Look, to tell you that I support a
00:34:51.300 full-scale war with boots on the ground, it's very difficult for me and I think for every Israeli to
00:34:58.500 say that, because we send our kids to the army. We are all soldiers. It's compulsory service in Israel.
00:35:08.180 So we prefer not to get to a situation of another front and a full-scale war and a ground operation
00:35:19.300 in Lebanon. Lebanon is our nightmare and we had withdrawn unilaterally from Lebanon in 2000,
00:35:26.340 hoping that it would bring peace and security to our Northern border and it didn't happen. Hezbollah just
00:35:32.340 became stronger since we had withdrawn from South Lebanon. We didn't get anything out of this
00:35:38.100 withdrawal actually. They built position next to the border, next to our communities.
00:35:45.380 So Israel will go to a full-scale war against Lebanon only if there is no other choice, only if there
00:35:54.580 won't be any other solution that will enable us to bring the people back home. I think that with the
00:36:00.100 search of this solution, we need the help of international community. We need the understanding
00:36:06.820 of the international community that the solution by itself, or I would put it this way, the agreement
00:36:12.340 by itself is not a solution. Okay, the implementation of the agreement is the solution. And as I've said,
00:36:19.140 there is a gap between the two. Which agreement?
00:36:21.300 Whatever agreement we will reach. There was an agreement that ended the previous war that said
00:36:26.980 that Hezbollah should be disarmed in the areas next to the border, 25 kilometers from the border,
00:36:33.700 up to 25 kilometers from the border. It never happened. Hezbollah never respected the United Nations
00:36:40.420 Security Council resolution that said that. It just never happened. So if we want to have another
00:36:46.740 diplomatic arrangement again, we need to make sure there is an effective monitoring force
00:36:54.740 that can make sure that Hezbollah is disarmed in these areas. Now, this means that the monitoring
00:37:01.620 force will understand that it has to clash with Hezbollah because it will not voluntarily disarm
00:37:09.540 in these areas. It's just not going to happen.
00:37:12.580 What next for you and for your family?
00:37:15.780 We don't know. You know, the most certain thing here is uncertainty. We can't make plans for the
00:37:21.620 summer. We don't know whether if we talk in two, three weeks, everything will get crazy here. We
00:37:29.300 don't know if we'll talk in two, three months. There will be a ceasefire, but I will be afraid of
00:37:35.300 another invasion because nobody is doing anything about Hezbollah capabilities on the other side of the
00:37:41.140 border. We don't know how we are going to bring the people back to their homes if Hezbollah is still
00:37:46.820 on the other side of the border and they are looking at the terrorist's eyes. And I saw them
00:37:50.740 every day, so I know how they look like. I saw them. They were on the border. I was there every day.
00:37:56.260 We truly don't know how all of this is going to play out. The only thing I do know, and I keep
00:38:03.220 saying that again and again and again, that this is not a threat just against us Israelis,
00:38:09.300 as we already discussed, Jewish or not Jewish doesn't matter. This is a threat against the
00:38:16.580 Iranian view this campaign. This is the Iranian campaign against the Western presence in the
00:38:23.540 Middle East. Do we want to help the Iranians eliminate the Western presence in the Middle East,
00:38:29.380 which is Israel? And West, I mean by values. We share values of democracy and human rights. Yes,
00:38:36.180 we share values of human rights here in Israel. Those who visit here know that.
00:38:42.900 What do we want? What do we share? These are very deep questions that should be asked
00:38:48.740 when we try to analyze the current campaign and what is happening now in the Middle East.
00:38:54.500 It's not Israel-Hamas war, Israel-Kizbar war. That's not the story.
00:38:58.340 It's Iran's war against the West. And if they succeed in eliminating Israel,
00:39:06.660 I don't think that they stop there. They're already not stopping there.
00:39:13.220 All right, Sarit, thanks so much for your time. Thank you for having me.
00:39:18.100 The Alma Center produces open source material that can help you understand what's going on. Do check
00:39:23.140 out their website and get a better sense for yourself of what is happening. Full Comment is a
00:39:29.540 post-media podcast. My name is Brian Lilly, your host. This episode was produced by Andre Pru with
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