Full Comment - November 04, 2024


If Trump is a ‘garbage’ candidate, Harris is a ‘vacuous sociopath’


Episode Stats


Length

51 minutes

Words per minute

172.87305

Word count

8,952

Sentence count

712

Harmful content

Misogyny

16

sentences flagged

Toxicity

54

sentences flagged

Hate speech

17

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

J.D. Cuccelli joins me to talk about the hypocrisy of both sides of the political aisle, from George Lopez's Puerto Rican jokes to Joe Biden's call out of Trump supporters as "garbage."

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 A lot of talk about garbage in the American election. 0.97
00:00:08.700 We're less than a week until the Americans decide who's going to be their next president, 1.00
00:00:12.360 and the discussion is about garbage. 0.72
00:00:15.460 Hello, welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.
00:00:17.280 I'm Brian Lilley, your host.
00:00:18.520 Maybe you heard about Donald Trump's rally at Madison Square Gardens in New York over
00:00:24.360 the weekend.
00:00:25.580 He had a comedian open it up, Tony Hinchcliffe, who's a bit of a roast comedian.
00:00:29.860 Who's said nasty things about everyone he has ever been interacting with, if you watch
00:00:37.740 this guy.
00:00:38.600 And here's what he said about Puerto Rico that has an awful lot of people outraged.
00:00:44.180 You know, there's a lot going on. 0.95
00:00:45.760 Like, I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage
00:00:49.840 in the middle of the ocean right now.
00:00:52.020 Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico. 0.98
00:00:54.440 So that comment, Puerto Rico's a floating island of garbage, that had everyone saying, 1.00
00:00:59.420 oh, Trump, just more proof that he's racist. 1.00
00:01:02.060 This Madison Square Garden thing's just a Nazi rally. 0.99
00:01:04.800 It's horrible.
00:01:05.700 How dare he say those things?
00:01:07.900 Well, here's George Lopez, the comedian and sitcom star at a Democrat rally talking about
00:01:16.860 how you better not leave building supplies around for the border wall or Mexicans will 1.00
00:01:22.700 steal it.
00:01:23.200 Donald Trump said he was going to build a wall.
00:01:27.160 And George Lopez said, you better build it in one day, because if you leave that material
00:01:32.540 out there overnight.
00:01:34.080 So those are two comedians at various events, and you can dismiss them and say, well, they're
00:01:39.520 just comedians.
00:01:40.280 But here's Joe Biden, the current president, the current Democrat president of the United 1.00
00:01:45.880 States, jumping into this and saying, Trump supporters are garbage. 1.00
00:01:52.380 And just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. 1.00
00:01:57.920 Well, let me tell you something. 0.95
00:01:59.360 I don't know the Puerto Rican that I know, or Puerto Rico where I'm in my home state of
00:02:05.980 Delaware.
00:02:06.800 They're good, decent, honorable people. 1.00
00:02:09.120 The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters. 0.98
00:02:12.400 Some media outlets are now trying to downplay that and say, well, that's not really what 0.99
00:02:15.640 Joe Biden said. 1.00
00:02:16.540 No, he clearly said Trump supporters are garbage. 1.00
00:02:19.440 Is this where we're at in the last dying days of the American election? 1.00
00:02:26.420 Joining me now to talk more about this, to break it all down, is a man who has no love
00:02:31.120 for either candidate and no love for the hypocrisy of either side.
00:02:34.860 J.D. Cuccelli, you may read him in National Post.
00:02:37.960 And J.D., I'm going to take a quick guess.
00:02:41.160 You may invoke Mercutio from Romeo and Juliet and say a plague on both your houses.
00:02:47.560 Am I wrong?
00:02:48.960 Yes.
00:02:49.480 By and large, I think that it's so appropriate that at a time when American politics have turned
00:02:55.620 into basically a dumpster fire floating down a river of sewage, that our political parties 0.98
00:03:03.160 are literally going to garbage. 0.54
00:03:05.200 I mean, it's just amazing. 1.00
00:03:06.620 This is ridiculous. 0.97
00:03:08.380 I mean, first of all, the Republicans should know that if you hire an insult comic as your 0.98
00:03:12.140 opening act for a rally, you're going to get insults.
00:03:16.080 And that means somebody's going to get roasted.
00:03:18.740 That's just what Tony Hinchcliffe does.
00:03:20.560 And it's what he delivered at the Madison Square Garden.
00:03:24.200 George Lopez, of course.
00:03:25.420 I mean, people have been making fun of each other over every difference forever.
00:03:29.540 And if you have a sense of humor about yourself, that's a good thing.
00:03:33.080 But yeah, I mean, when Lopez is almost simultaneously making fun of Latinos also, okay, it's probably 0.93
00:03:39.900 taken a little of the sting out of the Hinchcliffe joke.
00:03:42.020 The worst one, honestly, and this is where Democrats repeatedly cannot get out of their
00:03:47.440 own way, is when the president of the United States refers to the supporters of the main 0.99
00:03:53.980 opponent of his party's candidate as garbage. 0.97
00:03:57.260 This is, I mean, it's being billed as yet another deplorables moment, although in a lot 1.00
00:04:01.020 of ways it's even worse.
00:04:03.760 Cleaners, deplorables, you can go down the list. 1.00
00:04:08.920 There is this tendency on the Democratic side to say, well, not only is my opponent wrong
00:04:17.040 on the policy, but they're wrong morally.
00:04:20.740 They're just bad people.
00:04:23.000 And I don't think that helps you with the general electorate.
00:04:28.220 Look, elections are decided whether you like it or not.
00:04:32.680 Elections are decided by swing voters.
00:04:34.940 Now, I remember there was a quote from Ann Coulter more than a decade ago where she said
00:04:39.580 that if you're a swing voter at this point, you've basically got the IQ of a toaster.
00:04:45.320 But swing voters decide elections in your country and mine.
00:04:50.760 And so those are the people you're appealing to, not the hardcore partisans.
00:04:54.160 The hardcore partisans you try and whip up.
00:04:56.620 But you've got to appeal to the swing voters.
00:04:59.020 And if your side is saying, well, anybody that would even consider the other side is morally
00:05:06.580 inferior, well, then you're telling those people that are saying, I don't know, do I
00:05:14.100 want to vote Trump?
00:05:15.540 Do I want to vote Harris?
00:05:17.200 You're telling them that even just by considering voting Trump, you're morally inferior.
00:05:21.280 That's exactly right.
00:05:22.140 Our politics have hardened into about 40% being rock solid supporters of either of the major
00:05:29.680 parties, no matter what they do.
00:05:32.560 There's a few percent in between that will vote for one of the smaller parties and independent
00:05:36.440 candidates.
00:05:37.460 And then there are some persuadables in there.
00:05:39.860 So the parties really in our elections are fighting over about five, six, eight percent of
00:05:46.720 the electorate.
00:05:47.360 That's all that's available to the two parties.
00:05:49.500 And that's what's going to decide the election.
00:05:51.040 And the sides are so hardened that the party and they despise each other.
00:05:55.140 Let's be clear now, when you when they ask Democrats what they think of Republicans.
00:06:00.240 Wait, wait a minute.
00:06:01.300 They despise each other?
00:06:03.080 They despise each other.
00:06:04.800 When you ask them, when you ask surveys, I mean, you know, what how would you refer to
00:06:09.040 a Republican if you're a Democrat?
00:06:10.280 How would you refer to a Democrat if you're a Republican?
00:06:12.760 A majority or at least half and often a majority will refer to the other side as a threat to
00:06:17.580 democracy, as dangerous, as immoral.
00:06:21.040 I mean, so the the the sides are not just hardened, but the really negative opinions of the sides
00:06:26.700 are hardened.
00:06:27.400 And that's where you get your deplorables moments when candidates refer to supporters of their 0.99
00:06:31.800 of their main opponents as disgusting people, as garbage, as deplorable because they know 0.99
00:06:38.040 they're not winnable. 1.00
00:06:38.940 That 40 percent of the electorate is not available to them.
00:06:41.180 And that stirring up the pot like that, vilifying them is an effective way of getting out their
00:06:46.780 own electorate.
00:06:47.720 But it also hardens the sides.
00:06:50.060 It divide.
00:06:51.020 It makes that divide deeper.
00:06:52.440 It makes the tensions worse.
00:06:54.240 And it makes the politics zero sum.
00:06:57.200 You know, at the end of the day, one side wins and they're going to punish the other side
00:07:00.900 when they're in power.
00:07:02.320 So but the comments from Tony Hinchcliffe were widely played by most of the media and they
00:07:07.500 were denounced.
00:07:08.140 And you've got this claim that the the fact that Trump just rallied at Madison Square Gardens 0.97
00:07:16.080 is proof that he's a fascist, that he's a Nazi. 0.58
00:07:20.480 And they keep pointing back to this was at the 1939 or early 1940s rally at Madison Square
00:07:27.200 Gardens.
00:07:29.140 Look, Madison Square Gardens is the home to an awful lot of things.
00:07:33.260 New York Rangers, I believe, still play there.
00:07:35.580 Uh, you've got concerts going on there.
00:07:38.080 Billy Joel is Billy Joel a Nazi because he has played there more than any other artist.
00:07:43.060 I believe he's basically had a monthly residency.
00:07:47.000 Uh, and then when you look at politics, show me a party in any era that has not rallied at
00:07:54.700 Madison Square Garden.
00:07:55.600 So beyond the fact that some lunatics on MSNBC or MSLSD as Mark Levin calls it, I don't think
00:08:05.500 wrongly, um, why, why were people saying that this was a Nazi rally? 0.84
00:08:12.080 You can dislike Trump as much as you want, but calling him a fascist and a Nazi when it's
00:08:17.340 not warranted.
00:08:19.260 Eric Adams, the New York mayor said that was wrong.
00:08:21.840 What were they basing this on other than, well, Nazis were there in, uh, you know, uh,
00:08:28.020 80 years ago.
00:08:28.980 So therefore he's a Nazi. 0.78
00:08:30.540 Was there any meat there or was this just inflated BS? 0.97
00:08:35.780 No, this is the hot dumpster fire again of American politics.
00:08:39.860 First of all, to clarify, um, 85 years ago, the German American Bund had a rally at the
00:08:46.060 Madison Square Garden, a building that no longer exists.
00:08:49.260 That Madison Square Garden was torn down in the 1960s.
00:08:52.260 The current Madison Square Garden is not in the same place.
00:08:55.360 And it was built in the night.
00:08:56.540 It was built in the 68, I think it opened.
00:08:58.840 So it's not even the same building.
00:09:00.520 However, in the new one, Bill Clinton had a rally.
00:09:02.980 But I mean, in that old one, that that's where Marilyn Monroe saying happy birthday,
00:09:07.740 Mr.
00:09:08.080 President.
00:09:08.800 It's not even the same building.
00:09:11.680 Well, apparently in American politics, everybody's either a Nazi or a communist.
00:09:16.000 And the problem with doing that is there's no place to go. 0.93
00:09:18.720 If a week, two weeks, three weeks before the election, your opponent is a fascist and a
00:09:22.960 Nazi, you're not leaving yourself a lot of room to double down and really dig in with 0.56
00:09:27.520 it with the claims.
00:09:28.600 Where do you go from there?
00:09:29.440 Cannibal?
00:09:30.020 That's about all that's left.
00:09:32.240 And really, that's as that's how substance free American politics is now.
00:09:37.340 Now, first of all, if you want to be literal about this stuff, the fascist actually applies
00:09:41.460 to the economic policies of both the major parties now, you know, private ownership nominally,
00:09:46.240 but state control, state directed through industrial policy, that both the parties are
00:09:50.340 endorsed that.
00:09:51.520 That's what the Democrats have enacted.
00:09:53.220 And it's what Republicans are promising, especially J.D.
00:09:55.400 Vance. 0.96
00:09:55.900 So if you want to talk about fascist, they're both fascist.
00:09:59.600 Look, I would argue I would argue that neither one of them goes as far as someone like a 0.99
00:10:04.580 Mussolini.
00:10:05.560 And and and I think you would agree with that.
00:10:07.960 But there is an awful lot of there are an awful lot of accusations being thrown around
00:10:15.820 here.
00:10:16.600 And and I look at it and I say, how does this help anyone decide who to vote?
00:10:23.040 It's not.
00:10:23.480 But it helps you if they want to help people decide who to vote against.
00:10:27.500 This isn't really about persuading people to vote for a candidate.
00:10:31.400 It's about making the other candidate untouchable, socially unacceptable to vote for, unacceptable
00:10:37.700 to support in any way.
00:10:39.400 At this point, you're trying to peel off a percent or two.
00:10:42.140 This is a 50 50 race.
00:10:43.680 It is a coin toss race.
00:10:45.600 It went from a very slight advantage for Kamala Harris about a month ago to a very slight advantage 1.00
00:10:50.580 for Donald Trump right now going into into Election Day.
00:10:53.180 Um, so if you could peel off, if you could just dissuade a few people from voting for
00:10:58.180 your opponent, then maybe you can edge across that finish line next Tuesday.
00:11:02.880 That's what this is about.
00:11:03.980 No one's actually trying to run up an optimal.
00:11:05.680 Well, especially, honestly, Kamala Harris is not trying to run a positive campaign, persuading 0.60
00:11:10.700 people to her side.
00:11:11.920 She's just trying to dissuade people from voting for Donald Trump. 1.00
00:11:15.120 Oh, I thought her campaign was all about joy. 0.98
00:11:17.620 Yeah, that lasted about five minutes.
00:11:19.060 And then we went to fascist.
00:11:20.020 And the problem here is that, honestly, I'm not a fan of either of these candidates, but
00:11:25.000 Kamala Harris is very overtly an empty suit. 0.99
00:11:27.900 She's a vacuous sociopath. 1.00
00:11:29.680 And to be fair, let me call, you know, Trump a narcissistic bully. 1.00
00:11:33.220 So we got all the terms out there. 0.99
00:11:34.660 But she's a vacuous sociopath who is a vehicle for the aspirations of the people around her. 1.00
00:11:39.840 That's honestly, there's kind of a committee that's been making decisions for Joe Biden
00:11:44.820 as president, according to the Wall Street Journal.
00:11:46.800 They reported that before he dropped out of the race.
00:11:48.720 And I would assume that those are the same people who are generally guiding Harris now,
00:11:54.140 because she's never been known throughout her career for reading her briefing papers or
00:11:57.580 making hard decisions.
00:11:59.100 So this is not a campaign that's going to have substance to it, because there's not a substantial
00:12:03.780 candidate to run that campaign.
00:12:05.880 So all you can go with is empty slogans and vibe.
00:12:09.380 I mean, for about 10 minutes, we had a vibe campaign going.
00:12:12.820 That didn't last long either.
00:12:14.420 Now, the joy campaign.
00:12:16.360 Yeah, Brat Summer.
00:12:17.060 That was at least somewhat upbeat, which was nicer than throwing around accusations.
00:12:23.680 Well, until you look up what Brat would mean on the Urban Dictionary.
00:12:27.560 And then you're like, oh, wait a minute.
00:12:28.980 Well, these people are not exactly in tune with current youth culture either.
00:12:32.300 So that's where you end up with your embarrassing moments.
00:12:34.420 It's like, you know, say Tim Woltz playing a video game to a zero to zero tie, trying to win over voters while they're actually watching football instead of his video game.
00:12:45.100 It's just a substance free campaign.
00:12:48.060 And it's really kind of awful to watch.
00:12:50.480 It's it really it's it's like watching a dumpster fire.
00:12:53.440 And it's you.
00:12:54.480 And the thing is, we have to live with the results of this after next Tuesday.
00:12:58.240 One of these two is going to be the next president of the United States.
00:13:01.620 And they're going to exercise their power over policy.
00:13:07.580 They're the wield vast authority of the office of the presidency.
00:13:11.080 And we're going to have to live with the fact that neither of these two has a decent claim to being up to the job.
00:13:18.800 Look, I told you the last time we spoke about the American election as a Canadian, I sit here and I go, OK, you're both protectionist.
00:13:27.860 I'm not happy with either one of you, although I will say and I made this comment on another podcast recently.
00:13:35.940 Harris is actually worse for us, especially where I live here in Ontario.
00:13:39.140 We've got a large part of the auto industry entirely integrated with the American auto industry, whether it's in Michigan, Ohio, whether it's in West Virginia, like the parts that go back and forth between the various regions.
00:13:54.660 And Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have both tried to repatriate or patriate the entire auto industry back to Michigan.
00:14:04.020 They want it in Michigan and they want it in unionized shops.
00:14:07.020 And had it not been for Joe Manchin and the two Democrat senators out of out of Georgia, where they've got auto plants that are not unionized, that would have passed.
00:14:18.380 And the entire Canadian auto industry, which has grown up like it's not like we stole jobs from you.
00:14:25.860 The fact is that the auto industry grew up in the Great Lakes Basin on both sides of the border at the same time and have benefited from each other.
00:14:37.100 But Biden in 2008, 2009, tried to take all the jobs out during the fiscal meltdown, and he tried to do it with the Inflation Reduction Act.
00:14:47.700 And Kamala Harris was a big part of that.
00:14:51.080 So, yeah, people will point to Trump.
00:14:53.640 He had tariffs on steel and aluminum.
00:14:55.700 Yeah, those bug me.
00:14:56.580 But so do the tariffs on softwood lumber that make your homes more expensive.
00:15:02.020 So does the idea that we'll put in all kinds of buy American policies so that we can't trade back and forth.
00:15:09.620 All of these things bug me.
00:15:11.320 So I'm not a big fan of either candidate.
00:15:13.340 But objectively, the Democrat team is now worse than the Republican team in terms of protectionism.
00:15:20.120 And that's going to.
00:15:21.160 But let's stick with the media thing before we leave that, because you wrote a great piece for National Post the other day.
00:15:27.860 Just want to read the headline off and then part of it.
00:15:31.560 Edited Harris 60 Minutes interview shows why many have lost faith in the media, shedding audience and credibility organizations that should inform the public disdain it instead.
00:15:44.220 OK, I'm going to feign ignorance, J.D.
00:15:46.560 I'm not going to feign it.
00:15:47.520 I'm going to say it like.
00:15:48.420 I've followed this on the margins.
00:15:52.340 I know what it's like to do TV interviews, radio interviews, podcast print.
00:15:58.120 You can screw it up an awful lot of ways, but it takes effort.
00:16:01.680 What did 60 Minutes do that leaves you saying this this hurts the entire media sector?
00:16:07.960 Yeah, this was amazing.
00:16:09.120 I mean, they put this on public display.
00:16:10.960 They had a 60 Minutes had a sit down interview with Kamala Harris.
00:16:14.940 And in the teaser for the interview, they had a question for her about whether Bibi Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, was listening to the Biden administration anymore about Israel's response to the attack by Hamas.
00:16:29.080 And her response in the teaser sounded like she dropped her scrabble board.
00:16:34.260 It was a mess.
00:16:35.620 It was words garbled together without meaning.
00:16:37.780 In the actual interview, when they aired 60 Minutes, she came out with a rather more coherent answer to the same question.
00:16:46.740 And so a lot of people watched the two.
00:16:49.140 The teaser was broadcast by CBS, and then so was the interview.
00:16:52.460 We're like, okay, which was the actual answer to that question?
00:16:55.420 And we want to see the transcript, and even better, how about the raw footage, so we can see what her actual answer was.
00:17:03.540 CBS has been hemming and hoeing, has refused to release the transcript or the raw footage, which they did, by the way, when one of the reporters interviewed Donald Trump back in 2020.
00:17:16.040 2017, I think it was, actually.
00:17:18.320 Catherine Herridge was the reporter.
00:17:20.120 She no longer works for CBS, but she came out and pointed that out and then linked to the full transcript of the interview that they put out, so that it was clear that they weren't just editing it to make them look good or bad.
00:17:30.080 And she asked, as many people do, that CBS did the same thing with Harris, and they refused to do that.
00:17:35.620 It's an awful look, which could have been cleared up immediately by them saying, you know what, here's the full transcript.
00:17:42.520 We just released two different parts of her answer at different times.
00:17:45.520 But here's exactly what she said in full.
00:17:47.720 That would have resolved the problem.
00:17:49.180 But this is a self-own.
00:17:51.060 The media has been doing it to itself over and over again by becoming a partisan player in American politics.
00:17:57.760 And this is not the first time by any means this has happened.
00:18:00.640 They erode their credibility.
00:18:02.340 They erode their trust.
00:18:03.840 And now, of course, we're at a point where when you ask people, do you trust the media?
00:18:07.420 More people say they have no faith at all in the U.S. news media than say that they have high faith.
00:18:12.500 And look, I can understand editing for time, although when I do big sit-down interviews, my goal is always, and I believe in every case, whether it's online or somewhere, we have released the full interview.
00:18:29.180 And I've done interviews with prime ministers, opposition leaders, premiers, and okay, if you don't air the full thing on a radio show or a TV show because of time constraints, the whole interview goes online.
00:18:43.260 And people can see the full thing.
00:18:45.980 But maybe you say, okay, well, we've only got seven minutes that we can show, and you talk for 15.
00:18:51.860 Put the full 15 minutes online.
00:18:54.560 Let people view it.
00:18:55.500 Let people say it.
00:18:56.360 The fact that the teaser had the word salad and then what they broadcast had the coherent answer, that really does make them look bad.
00:19:08.380 It would be better if they just cut out the entire question and answer, wouldn't it?
00:19:12.120 They would have, although I think that whether or not a presidential candidate has the ability or inability to answer a question clearly is something that's of interest to the audience.
00:19:21.040 And if the actual answer is word salad or partially word salad, that should be available.
00:19:27.960 In a couple of places in that same interview, they summarized our answer.
00:19:31.940 They had a voiceover to summarize it because they said the answer was too long to put on air.
00:19:36.120 Well, is that true or was it just a bad answer?
00:19:38.380 Again, server space is not that expensive.
00:19:41.540 The internet makes things possibly much more open and transparent.
00:19:45.900 So put the full answer up online.
00:19:47.680 Put the raw footage and or the transcript up online as they've done in the past with other candidates and let people see for themselves what this candidate actually said.
00:19:57.300 After all, you're interviewing someone who wants to be a president of the United States and have control over nuclear weapons and the ability to shape policy.
00:20:06.540 That's a lot to ask.
00:20:07.540 That's a lot to ask.
00:20:07.960 So let's vet them.
00:20:09.000 Let's vet them foot in full.
00:20:11.100 So let me ask you about Donald Trump going on with Joe Rogan.
00:20:17.120 This is an offer that was made to both candidates.
00:20:21.380 Joe Rogan offered to do an interview with with Donald Trump, which happened last week.
00:20:27.780 He offered to do one with Kamala Harris.
00:20:32.600 Harris decided to say no.
00:20:35.420 Trump's interview just on YouTube has been seen by 40 million people.
00:20:40.580 Now, if you know, YouTube stats, some of that is people watch for 30 seconds.
00:20:46.340 Some people watch for the entire time.
00:20:49.020 But those are staggering numbers.
00:20:51.240 And then, you know, you know that Rogan has a specific deal with Spotify.
00:20:56.500 His podcast shows up elsewhere.
00:20:58.380 There's all kinds of clips on social media.
00:21:00.380 This is one of the most widely watched interviews.
00:21:05.540 And let me just scroll down.
00:21:07.600 It is a two hour, 58 minute in 50 second interview.
00:21:13.680 They offered the same thing to Harris.
00:21:17.720 She declined.
00:21:19.500 Then they offered one hour, but he'd have to fly to her instead of her going to his studio.
00:21:24.820 Was that a wise decision on the Harris campaign's part?
00:21:31.640 They are struggling with men at the moment.
00:21:34.020 Donald Trump goes on and speaks for three hours, effectively.
00:21:39.680 And, you know, you can pick apart his answers or not, but fairly coherent for the entire time.
00:21:45.520 And there's no editing, so you can see everything.
00:21:47.880 And then Harris says, well, if you fly to us, we'll give you one hour.
00:21:51.440 I think she should have gone on with that.
00:21:55.080 I think she should have, too.
00:21:56.520 And the fact is that demanding that he fly to her, bring his portable studio, which may or not actually exist,
00:22:03.120 and interview her for one hour when his format is longer, that's rich.
00:22:07.040 First of all, the media does not serve at the sufferance of politicians.
00:22:11.180 If they want to hold office, they go and they ask for special favors.
00:22:14.940 And being interviewed on a major show is a favor.
00:22:17.420 So you go there.
00:22:18.760 It's her job.
00:22:20.600 Yeah.
00:22:20.700 And that's bigger.
00:22:22.020 I mean, just so people realize, that's bigger than any cable news program.
00:22:25.700 That's bigger than any major, you know, ABC, NBC, CBS.
00:22:29.980 It is.
00:22:30.520 The viewership, the listenership is huge.
00:22:33.440 And, again, I want to emphasize this.
00:22:35.180 The media does not serve politicians.
00:22:36.940 They serve the public.
00:22:37.920 So if she has to go to the mountains, she has to go to Rogan if she wants to be on the show.
00:22:42.420 He owes her nothing.
00:22:43.600 But it was not wise.
00:22:44.980 If you have a competent candidate who can access that huge an audience, the thing is, she should jump at it.
00:22:52.580 She should fly to Austin, and then she should go on the show, and she should make her case.
00:22:56.680 And, yes, Trump talked with Rogan for three hours, and apparently they got along, and apparently it impressed a lot of people.
00:23:03.160 At least that's the impression you get from the interview and from the reactions after the interview.
00:23:07.440 I think the big concern, and it's always been a concern, is that Harris is not capable of speaking unscripted for 10 minutes, let alone for two or three hours.
00:23:17.380 She's not good at that. 1.00
00:23:18.540 She comes off as forced, unnatural.
00:23:21.000 She loses her place.
00:23:22.620 The famous word salads start coming out.
00:23:25.220 So if you have a competent candidate, which is someone they should have tested for and vetted for months ago, then this is an extremely poor decision is to not go on the Joe Rogan show.
00:23:34.240 Because of the vast audience you can reach through that, an audience that she needs, largely young men.
00:23:39.260 But if you have what we all suspect is a not very good candidate who cannot think on her feet and cannot speak unscripted, then this was a necessary decision.
00:23:49.100 But that reflects very poorly on Kamala Harris.
00:23:52.420 All right, J.D., I've got to take a quick break.
00:23:54.080 When we come back, though, I do want to ask you about your home state in Arizona.
00:23:58.280 I just spent a bit of time there.
00:23:59.700 It's one of the swing states that I think is going to flip for Trump.
00:24:04.220 And there was one interesting stat that I came across when I'm down there that I want to ask you about in detail.
00:24:12.360 Like, why are swing states going?
00:24:14.600 Because you're in Canada.
00:24:16.640 You'll listen to most of the pundits.
00:24:18.140 How could anyone ever vote for one candidate?
00:24:20.760 Of course, everyone's got to vote for Harris.
00:24:22.440 But why would anyone ever vote for the other guy?
00:24:24.620 It's a binary choice.
00:24:25.820 You and I are in the same boat, but why would anyone do that?
00:24:31.640 Well, we'll talk about that when we come back.
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00:25:33.900 So folks might know that I spent a week in mid-October in Arizona.
00:25:39.240 It was part of a travel junket.
00:25:40.780 I'm going to be honest, it was a travel junket.
00:25:42.840 It was fantastic.
00:25:43.600 I went down and toured Route 66, hit Oatman, Kingman, Williams, Flagstaff, Metropolitan, Holbrook, everyone.
00:25:52.940 Put your hands together.
00:25:54.760 But, of course, being a political junkie while I'm down there, I'm paying a lot of attention to what's going on on the scene.
00:26:01.380 Now, joined today on the podcast by J.D. Tichile.
00:26:05.280 And, J.D., for people that know Arizona, you're near the Sedona area, correct?
00:26:14.280 Correct, yes.
00:26:15.400 Okay.
00:26:15.880 So there's parts of Arizona that always vote Democrat, and there's parts that always vote Republican.
00:26:24.140 And I went through both.
00:26:25.760 I visited Flagstaff, maybe you've heard, big Harris area.
00:26:30.660 I visited Oatman.
00:26:31.920 You won't be surprised.
00:26:33.060 They're going to go for Trump.
00:26:35.280 And then you've got swing areas.
00:26:37.980 So 2016, the entire state goes, because it's a winner-take-all state on the Electoral College, the state goes for Trump.
00:26:46.740 2020, they go for Biden.
00:26:49.220 What was the difference?
00:26:51.100 Maricopa County, where you've got Phoenix and Mesa and Chandler and all these urban places.
00:26:58.020 It looks like your state's going to go for Trump this time.
00:27:01.560 And Maricopa County is back to being on the red side.
00:27:06.480 Not hugely, solidly red, but enough to flip it for him.
00:27:11.200 And I'm looking around and saying, okay, well, what changed?
00:27:14.500 What was going on in 2016 that made them vote for Trump?
00:27:17.520 Why'd they vote Biden in 2020?
00:27:19.940 And why would they go for Trump now?
00:27:21.900 And there was one stat that jumped out. 0.61
00:27:23.920 First off, I'm talking to people across the state, and everyone's saying the economy sucks.
00:27:30.580 And it's the same thing up here.
00:27:33.120 The politicians say, oh, no, we have a study from this alphabet group that says we're doing great.
00:27:39.780 And people say, yeah, but my groceries are more expensive.
00:27:42.840 So you've got that going on.
00:27:44.300 But there was this one stat that jumped out at me.
00:27:48.040 House prices in Phoenix area went up 47% in four years.
00:27:56.180 Fairly or unfairly, people blame the government, right?
00:28:00.660 Yeah, and it is fairly.
00:28:02.080 That is blame the government should take.
00:28:04.740 Look, the cost of living since Biden took office, Biden-Harris administration took office,
00:28:10.140 has gone up, according to the government's own statistics, by about 21%.
00:28:15.120 But there are some things that have increased even more.
00:28:20.200 And building supplies.
00:28:22.260 Also, regulatory barriers to building, all of the green rules.
00:28:26.380 It becomes much more difficult.
00:28:28.420 It takes longer and becomes more expensive to build new homes.
00:28:32.700 We have a shortage of this country.
00:28:34.940 I was reading statistics, I think, last week that said we need three to three and a half million
00:28:40.120 homes that we don't have right now.
00:28:42.600 And building them is more expensive now in terms of sourcing materials.
00:28:46.580 The last few years, some of it was the disruptions of the pandemic and the worldwide lockdowns
00:28:52.340 and such.
00:28:52.920 But a lot of it is new regulatory interference.
00:28:57.100 Things that have made it more difficult and more expensive to build homes.
00:29:01.040 But also just to live.
00:29:02.840 There's a feeling among a lot of people that the government is kind of waging war on its
00:29:06.400 own population outside of the urban areas on the coasts.
00:29:10.860 And you can feel that on the ground here in Arizona.
00:29:14.260 I mean, one of the things that we've got going on here in Ontario, where all of your issues,
00:29:20.720 they sounded very familiar.
00:29:22.860 But, you know, we've got issues like development charges.
00:29:27.540 And those are what the municipality looks at and says, OK, well, you're putting in a new
00:29:32.500 subdivision.
00:29:33.820 Well, we need to put in roads.
00:29:35.460 We need to put in sewers.
00:29:36.640 We need to put in water lines.
00:29:38.760 And those have gone up astronomically over the last bunch of years.
00:29:44.660 And you get the feeling that, OK, you're not just covering costs anymore.
00:29:49.720 This is a moneymaking center.
00:29:51.820 You don't want to raise property taxes.
00:29:54.100 So you're going to make the person buying the new home.
00:29:58.500 In some areas, it's gone from $39,000 to $200,000 within a decade.
00:30:06.400 That's insane.
00:30:08.140 And that's unsustainable.
00:30:09.760 And it makes homes unaffordable.
00:30:11.800 So, you know, is that sort of thing happening where you are?
00:30:17.240 Yeah, there's an anti-growth ideology in the current administration.
00:30:21.440 It's deeply wedded with a lot of the green beliefs.
00:30:25.480 The idea that we should just kind of sustain, coast along on what we have, not build more,
00:30:32.020 and discourage increased building and the use of open land.
00:30:37.700 Oh, OK.
00:30:38.580 Hold on.
00:30:39.540 Hold on.
00:30:39.920 I've got to stop you there.
00:30:40.720 Because the same thing's happening here, and yet the same people that want no growth also
00:30:47.220 believe in open borders and unlimited immigration.
00:30:51.880 How do you reconcile those two?
00:30:56.660 We shouldn't build any more homes, no more infrastructure, no more roads, but bring in 0.53
00:31:02.380 1.2 million people a year to an area of 15 million people.
00:31:06.420 Well, they're not reconcilable.
00:31:09.820 And to be clear, I'm not a, you know, put the wall up and close the borders kind of a
00:31:15.140 human protectionist.
00:31:16.420 Yeah, neither am I.
00:31:17.760 But you've got to, if you're going to bring people in, you've got to build stuff.
00:31:21.660 You've got to build stuff.
00:31:22.840 You have to have a policy for integrating them into your society.
00:31:25.660 You've got to make it possible for them to work.
00:31:27.680 You can't just let them in as refugees and say, no, but you can't get a job. 1.00
00:31:30.760 But you've got to have actual policy, a pathway to becoming a resident and then eventually
00:31:36.060 a citizen.
00:31:37.080 And yes, you have to build homes for them.
00:31:39.240 If you're going to grow your population, if you're going to let people in, there has 0.99
00:31:42.620 to be places to live.
00:31:44.960 You have to build and construct apartments and houses.
00:31:48.040 You have to have jobs.
00:31:49.360 You have to let them integrate into society.
00:31:51.560 And that is not the case.
00:31:52.760 We have a lack of policy now that's just a hot mess where people come in with unclear
00:31:58.480 status, stay without real legal right to work, and don't really have places to live.
00:32:04.600 So they crowd into apartments and it makes everybody unhappy.
00:32:08.000 And that, of course, breeds tensions.
00:32:09.800 And it's just a disaster across the board.
00:32:13.980 One of the things that shocked me when I was down there, I was up around the Williams area
00:32:20.180 and Trump was holding a rally just south of there in a place that you guys mysteriously
00:32:26.500 call Prescott.
00:32:28.120 It's spelled Prescott.
00:32:29.740 I don't know what's wrong with you, but you guys pronounce it Prescott.
00:32:33.240 Anyway, Trump went in and he went hard on immigration.
00:32:37.560 And if you listen to a lot of our media, that would turn off all Latinos and all Latinos would 1.00
00:32:43.080 say, no, no, no, we're never going to vote for Trump.
00:32:45.900 And then I'm looking at some of the polling.
00:32:47.680 And the polling showed that, so this is a statewide poll in mid-October by the American Association
00:32:56.600 of Retired Persons.
00:32:58.380 Hispanic and Latino voters in that poll favored Trump over Harris by a margin of 47 to 45%.
00:33:06.580 Now, it was a New York Times-Siena poll at the same time said Harris had the lead, but
00:33:11.880 Trump still had 40% of Latino voters.
00:33:15.400 He's gone hard on immigration.
00:33:18.560 Talk to me a bit about that because Arizona has a large Latino population, not a large black
00:33:24.840 population, not a large diversity in other areas, but Latino, there is a large Latino population
00:33:31.300 and a good chunk of them are looking at Trump.
00:33:34.220 Explain that to people who live in Canada or on the east and west coast of the United States
00:33:41.120 who say, how does that happen?
00:33:43.680 Oh, absolutely.
00:33:44.960 Arizona is heavily Hispanic, heavily Latino.
00:33:48.580 And the thing is, when we call Latinos out as if they're a separate group, they're Americans.
00:33:54.080 I mean, it's like saying, you know, and they've become integrated into the society.
00:33:58.540 And to the point where you walk down the street and you can see people who look very Hispanic,
00:34:04.760 but they don't speak Spanish.
00:34:06.440 But you'll look at people who don't look very Hispanic and they're fluent in Spanish.
00:34:09.760 It's just an amalgam of people in this state where it's with the Hispanic community is,
00:34:17.720 which predates the Anglo community here, is well integrated into society.
00:34:21.780 They just think of themselves as American because they are.
00:34:24.380 So when you talk about border walls and controls, to a large extent, they don't hear Latinos being
00:34:30.840 called out and targeted.
00:34:32.280 They hear immigrants being called out and being targeted.
00:34:35.320 And they don't think of themselves necessarily as connected to that, even if they still visit
00:34:39.520 relatives in Mexico or Guatemala.
00:34:41.520 They think of people who are trying to come across the border illegally, unlike they did,
00:34:46.560 as being the targets of that kind of policy.
00:34:49.480 And they probably think of these Venezuelan gangs as being a threat.
00:34:54.120 Because they are Venezuelan gangs or, you know, prior to the Venezuelan gangs being the big 0.81
00:35:00.240 issue, it was MS-13.
00:35:04.360 I mean, we've got MS-13 here in Toronto.
00:35:06.880 They are an actual concern.
00:35:09.240 And if you're not worried about organized crime from whichever ethnic group coming in 1.00
00:35:15.340 and trying to wreak havoc in society, then you're not paying attention.
00:35:21.780 Yeah.
00:35:21.880 I mean, that's exactly right.
00:35:23.080 My son goes to college in Tucson, which isn't far from the border.
00:35:26.840 And Tucson's got a big gang problem.
00:35:29.140 In fact, there was a young man who was shot outside of his dorm about three weeks ago.
00:35:34.940 It was just a fight over a basketball game. 1.00
00:35:37.840 It was stupid. 1.00
00:35:38.740 But that's the kind of thing that people worry about, especially with the influx. 1.00
00:35:44.060 And you've had a problem with the new gangs coming in from Venezuela.
00:35:48.020 Before that, it was the Salvadorans.
00:35:49.560 You'd mentioned MS-13.
00:35:52.240 And that's because, to a large extent, the people that Venezuela sent north.
00:35:56.860 And I have a friend who's a Venezuelan refugee.
00:35:59.320 But she got out on her own when she could.
00:36:02.060 Venezuela did what Cuba did 60 years ago, which is to flush out their prisons and send them north. 0.58
00:36:06.500 So we end up with inheriting their crime problems, which was, to a large extent, the intent of Maduro.
00:36:14.900 When Trump says that they're emptying out their prisons and their asylums and sending them north, is that hyperbole or is that reality?
00:36:24.760 To a certain extent, it's true. 0.98
00:36:26.700 And it's not unprecedented.
00:36:28.180 Castro did that with Cuba a long time ago.
00:36:30.500 I mean, if you've got prisons and your economy is collapsing and you're having a hard time feeding your own people, let alone your prisoners, and you've got an enemy, why not send your prisoners to the enemy to be taken care of?
00:36:41.900 So Maduro, to a certain extent, has fed quite a stream of ex-cons or current cons into the people coming north, made it possible for them to come here.
00:36:51.860 So, no, it's not all Venezuelans by any means.
00:36:54.960 But is that part of the problem?
00:36:56.640 Yes, it is.
00:36:58.320 We've seen Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, others go out and give speeches and say that if you're not voting for Kamala Harris, you're part of the problem.
00:37:10.280 Barack Obama is specifically targeting black men. 0.96
00:37:13.340 Donald Trump holding events with cameras where he goes into black barbershops.
00:37:19.320 There's a lot of race politics going on.
00:37:22.900 I wish I could say that this was not the case.
00:37:25.100 It's just different race politics here in Canada.
00:37:29.180 How is that playing out?
00:37:31.340 Who's winning?
00:37:32.220 Who's losing?
00:37:32.860 A lot of concern that black men will not vote for Kamala Harris.
00:37:38.060 Is Donald Trump going to take, is he going to win the black male vote or is he at least going to take enough that he causes problems for Harris?
00:37:48.400 Yeah, this has been an interesting evolution in Trump and the Republican Party back in 2016 and then again in 2020.
00:37:56.700 I think the Trump campaign was at the very least borderline racist and crossed that line more than more than a few times.
00:38:03.240 It was definitely xenophobic.
00:38:04.960 There was something awful about it.
00:38:06.420 If you listen to it, he seems to have hit his stride, though.
00:38:09.840 His message has become much more positive and inclusive.
00:38:13.760 Whichever advisors he's listening to now are a better batch than the ones he had in 2016 and 2020.
00:38:19.780 And I think it makes it easier for him to reach across lines that in the past he kind of reinforced racial, ethnic, linguistic lines.
00:38:28.260 And he was reaching along those lines much more effectively than is the Harris campaign.
00:38:31.920 And that is why you're seeing these numbers drifting in this direction among Hispanics in particular, but also among blacks and Asians.
00:38:38.500 So the Trump campaign is running a more positive and more inclusive campaign, much to my surprise this time around than it did in the past, and a much more inclusive campaign than Harris is running.
00:38:50.320 So that's why you end up with Harris sending these proxies out, trying to shame groups that previously voted overwhelmingly Democratic into sticking to their own voting patterns, which they're not doing anymore because they're being courted by a candidate they find more attractive.
00:39:05.560 Now, men overall, the Harris campaign's having trouble with.
00:39:10.160 You've seen some of the ads.
00:39:11.900 Now, I thought the ads were cringeworthy in terms of, I'm a man.
00:39:17.360 I don't mind snuggling on the couch.
00:39:20.460 I don't know.
00:39:22.680 It felt overwrought.
00:39:24.620 And I thought, look, there are a pile of Democrats in flyover country, as they might call it, in the middle of America where the battle's being fought.
00:39:36.540 They could have talked to regular Democrats, just regular dudes who vote Democrat, and asked them about it.
00:39:43.060 But these ads that the Harris campaign put out trying to attract men felt, you know, a colleague of mine said, oh, no, they're all tongue-in-cheek.
00:39:51.660 And I said, okay, well, I'm not getting that.
00:39:54.000 I'm getting, what the hell are you thinking?
00:39:57.240 So how do you see that playing out in this?
00:40:04.300 The Harris campaign has trouble with men.
00:40:06.120 They put out these ads that make most men, in my view, say, I don't know, that's just kind of weird.
00:40:13.720 Does she have trouble with men? 0.97
00:40:16.300 Women are pretty evenly split. 1.00
00:40:19.320 Men lean a little bit more to Trump than Harris.
00:40:23.980 And in a race as tight as this, that matters.
00:40:27.720 It matters a huge amount.
00:40:29.100 And no, these are not tongue-in-cheek ads.
00:40:30.820 These are clueless ads.
00:40:31.940 This is a marker of the divide in American politics now as the Republican Party has become a populist entity.
00:40:40.540 And the Democratic Party has become an elitist entity.
00:40:43.380 And as the Democratic Party's base becomes increasingly upper middle class, educated, urban, it loses touch with anything outside of that.
00:40:53.240 That's not to say there aren't Democrats out in flyover country.
00:40:55.860 And I live in flyover country, and I know some Democrats.
00:40:58.000 But it does mean—
00:41:00.000 Your state, by the way, I was about to say province.
00:41:03.280 Oh, my goodness.
00:41:04.340 Your state is about 49-47 right now.
00:41:07.280 49 for Trump, just shy of 47 for Harris.
00:41:11.300 Your state is split.
00:41:13.620 And there's a lot of normal dudes who, in your state, would vote for Harris.
00:41:20.140 I think if they watch those ads, they would kind of get a creepy feeling.
00:41:27.360 Yeah.
00:41:27.800 I mean, I get a creepy feeling watching them.
00:41:29.620 I mean, you're watching cosplay.
00:41:31.140 These are not real people.
00:41:33.240 You know, these are people who put on the flannel.
00:41:35.380 These are people who found a pickup truck, somebody else's pickup truck to sit on.
00:41:38.860 These people are kind of aping a role that they don't fully understand.
00:41:41.920 And it comes through loud and clear in the ads.
00:41:43.920 And that's unfortunate, because if they still had a clue, they could have found still existing blue-collar Democrats, still existing football-watching Democrats, who they could have made these ads with and who had a better feel for this kind of culture.
00:41:57.920 But the party as a whole, the people making these ads, the people planning out and strategizing the campaign, have entirely lost touch as the Democrats have become increasingly elite and urban.
00:42:08.940 And the Republicans, you know, conversely, are closely populist and ex-urban to rural.
00:42:14.560 And that's the divide in politics.
00:42:16.720 And it's one that the Democrats in particular seem almost incapable of bridging at this point.
00:42:21.800 Well, I'll say this for the Harris campaign, and I'd love your thoughts on it.
00:42:26.400 Before Joe Biden stepped down, there were states that should not be battleground states that were becoming battleground states.
00:42:34.820 Virginia.
00:42:35.960 Virginia was in play.
00:42:37.060 New Hampshire was in play.
00:42:41.340 Minnesota.
00:42:42.060 There's so many places that because Biden was so weak and the American public was starting to look and say, wow, he's not the guy we elected in 2020.
00:42:52.820 The cognitive decline is real.
00:42:54.800 That's a problem.
00:42:55.580 So she closed that and she has made it a much more competitive race than it would have been if Joe Biden has stepped in.
00:43:03.740 And, you know, whether it's because she has a pulse or is able to, you know, we've discussed that she speaks in word salads. 0.96
00:43:11.860 Look, they both do.
00:43:12.740 But she has made it a much more competitive race. 0.98
00:43:16.800 And I think she deserves some credit for that on the Democrat side.
00:43:20.400 Well, she does.
00:43:23.080 I mean, Harris has closed the gap somewhat.
00:43:26.300 I mean, Trump was very clearly going to beat Biden when Biden was still in the race, was still the Democratic candidate.
00:43:32.840 The thing is, though, being not as bad as a walking corpse is a low bar to overcome.
00:43:39.120 And that is I mean, I'll grant this the worst candidate the Republicans could have run is Donald Trump.
00:43:45.760 But I mean, they've got a lot of other talent that will be more credible, that's smarter, that has better handle on policy than Donald Trump does.
00:43:53.620 But the thing is, being less bad than Biden doesn't mean necessarily being better than Trump.
00:43:59.860 She's just competitive with Trump.
00:44:02.220 That's not saying a lot.
00:44:04.320 And that is to say, it's state of the fact with the two major parties right now.
00:44:08.200 So, yeah, I mean, Virginia is no longer in play.
00:44:10.480 New Hampshire is going to go Democrat.
00:44:12.360 And Virginia would have been shocking if it was in play because the votes there are now dominated by the Beltway Bandits, that area around D.C., which is all dependent upon the national capital.
00:44:23.720 But Harris only slightly improved Democrat chances.
00:44:28.240 They should not have run her as a candidate.
00:44:30.380 She was a poor choice. 0.56
00:44:32.080 And there's a very good chance that Biden endorsed her just as an F.U. after they pushed him out of the race.
00:44:37.800 He made it he made it a done deal.
00:44:40.020 And there's otherwise they would have had. 0.99
00:44:42.740 Yeah, there's some people that say his comment about Trump supporters being garbage is just another attempt to try and undermine her campaign. 0.97
00:44:50.220 Every time Biden does something, there's people saying, ah, there he is trying to undermine Harris's campaign again. 0.98
00:44:56.400 It's possible.
00:44:58.400 I mean, I do think he tried to undermine the Democrats by just overtly endorsing Harris and preventing a quick new primary where they could have chosen a viable candidate. 0.99
00:45:08.460 Whether at this point now he's off the because he's known for a history of stupid and off the cuff comments. 0.99
00:45:13.800 That's not new. 0.99
00:45:14.680 So whether he's strategizing that at this point, maybe, I don't know.
00:45:19.360 But the damage is done.
00:45:20.940 The Democrats are running an untested candidate who did not do well the last time she went into a presidential primary.
00:45:27.340 She had to drop out quickly.
00:45:28.700 And by accident, she ended up on the ticket as Biden's running mate back in 2020.
00:45:33.900 They just needed her to kind of fill a slot via Biden's insurance policy. 0.63
00:45:38.060 Now the insurance policy is the candidate.
00:45:40.220 It's not going especially well.
00:45:41.420 Top battleground states, according to RealClearPolling, they've got Trump at plus one.
00:45:47.520 So Trump leading by 0.6 in Pennsylvania, by one in North Carolina, by 2.4 percent in Georgia, 2.5 percent in your state of Arizona, 0.6 in Wisconsin.
00:46:01.600 The only good news for the Democrats of late is that in Michigan, Harris is ahead by 0.5 percent.
00:46:10.280 Until recently, Trump was leading in Michigan.
00:46:13.340 Things aren't looking good.
00:46:16.680 No, although I do want to point out that of all the polling averages, the RealClearPolitics one gives the best numbers to Trump.
00:46:23.560 The other averages still have Harris slightly ahead.
00:46:27.640 The Hill has her head by 0.4 percent, I think. 0.98
00:46:30.900 ABC 538 has her head by 1.4 percent nationally.
00:46:34.620 But we don't run a national presidential campaign.
00:46:37.000 Our campaign is state by state.
00:46:39.300 So if you run up the numbers in California and New York, you don't do yourself any favors.
00:46:43.260 You still just win the same number of electoral votes in the college.
00:46:47.100 So you need to get the states, those battleground states.
00:46:51.640 And at this point, the advantage is to Trump.
00:46:54.340 Not a lot.
00:46:55.400 It's still a coin toss.
00:46:56.440 But the last I saw was that Nate Silver was giving Trump a 54 percent chance of winning the campaign.
00:47:02.720 And ABC 538 was giving a 52 percent chance.
00:47:06.820 So slight advantage, Trump.
00:47:08.660 But really, we can wake up on Wednesday morning next week and find either one.
00:47:12.060 Probably not that early, to be honest.
00:47:13.560 Probably two weeks later.
00:47:14.580 But find out that either one of them is won.
00:47:16.420 Well, and the betting averages are putting it a bit higher than Nate Silver.
00:47:20.260 Um, and, and look, I have a lot of respect for Nate Silver, but I believe he was the guy that said Hillary had a 95 percent chance of winning in 2016.
00:47:30.040 And she didn't.
00:47:30.980 So he misread the polls then.
00:47:34.020 Uh, but betting averages are close to 60 percent for Trump winning.
00:47:38.900 Um, you know, we've got a few days to go.
00:47:42.160 We'll see how it plays out.
00:47:43.940 But it's looking like it's going towards Trump.
00:47:47.280 Let me ask you about the VP.
00:47:48.720 VP is the job that you get when they want you to disappear.
00:47:53.280 Kamala Harris disappeared for three and a half years until she ousted, helped house Joe Biden. 0.99
00:47:58.500 Um, but she's selected Tim Walls.
00:48:02.700 Donald Trump selected J.D. Vance.
00:48:05.480 Both of them confused me with their, their vice presidential picks.
00:48:10.020 I didn't see what either one of them added.
00:48:11.800 And then I watched their respective conventions.
00:48:14.820 And, you know, J.D. Vance's book, very impressive.
00:48:18.540 He's done some impressive media interviews over the years. 0.76
00:48:22.120 But I watched him at the RNC and I thought, oh, wow, this guy stinks.
00:48:26.520 That was not a good performance.
00:48:28.740 And then Tim Walls comes out and he does pretty well.
00:48:31.560 I thought at the DNC.
00:48:33.380 And since then, I thought he's done horrible and J.D. Vance has gotten better.
00:48:39.520 What are your thoughts on the two VP picks and do they matter?
00:48:43.760 And and then I'll ask you, you know, who else Harris should have picked to perhaps help her win?
00:48:49.280 I agree with you on both counts.
00:48:52.380 I was surprised by both picks.
00:48:54.180 I think that Trump would have been much better off with any of a number of state governors.
00:48:59.660 I think the governor of Virginia would have been a good choice.
00:49:02.640 I mean, I mean, that would have reached out to a state that he could have won.
00:49:06.660 You know, that would have really made it much, much better.
00:49:09.360 Also, I mean, Nikki, Nikki Haley would have been a great choice.
00:49:12.380 Reach across to Republicans who didn't want him to be president.
00:49:15.960 J.D. Vance struck me as an odd choice.
00:49:17.780 Tim Walls, his own people hate him.
00:49:20.780 I mean, his own state, the population is angry about his covid policies.
00:49:25.220 He also was never vetted properly.
00:49:27.000 So that was an odd choice.
00:49:28.560 And he's from Minnesota, a state that the Democrats are going to win no matter what.
00:49:33.360 Exactly.
00:49:33.980 The candidate that would have made the most sense to me would have been someone like Josh Shapiro,
00:49:37.800 the governor.
00:49:38.580 Exactly.
00:49:39.780 But you're absolutely right.
00:49:41.740 J.D. Vance is in play right now.
00:49:44.600 And if Josh Shapiro was on the ballot, Pennsylvania, I don't think, would be in play.
00:49:48.980 It might have locked up the election, actually, for Harris because of electoral votes from
00:49:53.060 Pennsylvania.
00:49:54.380 But J.D. Vance has definitely found his footing.
00:49:56.900 He is aggressive and smart and on the ball in the debates and also in interviews.
00:50:02.140 Walsh is not.
00:50:02.900 Walsh comes off as phony, forced and unprepared.
00:50:06.240 Or perhaps in his words. 0.99
00:50:08.780 A knucklehead. 0.98
00:50:10.460 A knucklehead. 0.98
00:50:11.380 And being self-effacing is a good thing. 0.92
00:50:14.200 But when that's all you got, that's not going to get you very far.
00:50:17.540 Now, that said, the VP candidates are probably not going to budge the dial very much, except
00:50:23.220 that in Trump's case, Trump's getting old.
00:50:26.340 And there's a fair chance that Vance will have to assume the office of the presidency before
00:50:30.720 Trump finishes out this term if Trump wins the election campaign.
00:50:34.460 So Vance ends up having been a better choice than I expected him to be, even if I would
00:50:39.520 have preferred somebody else.
00:50:41.560 Walsh, I think, was just not a good choice and is not providing any benefit to the campaign.
00:50:46.000 Yeah.
00:50:46.280 I'm really not sure what they're thinking there.
00:50:48.240 Um, I, I've changed my mind on Vance.
00:50:51.580 I haven't changed my mind on Walls.
00:50:54.380 Uh, it'll be a fascinating day.
00:50:56.380 Uh, maybe a fascinating week.
00:50:57.840 Maybe it'll be like our province of British Columbia, where a week later there, or more
00:51:02.240 than a week later, they're still trying to figure out who won the election.
00:51:04.660 It'll be fun.
00:51:05.200 I think that's very likely.
00:51:08.540 I do not expect that this is going, it's going to be called very quickly.
00:51:11.440 I think it's going to take us a while.
00:51:12.980 All right, JD, we will continue to read you in the pages of the National Post and, uh,
00:51:17.960 enjoy the nice weather down there in Arizona.
00:51:21.680 Thank you.
00:51:22.280 I appreciate it.
00:51:23.340 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.
00:51:25.340 My name is Brian Lilly, your host.
00:51:26.880 This episode was produced by Andre Pru.
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00:51:30.880 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
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00:51:45.360 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.