Full Comment - Investor interest in Alberta going ‘nuclear’ over Carney’s messaging

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00:00:21.740 It was a day for applause and smiles in Calgary recently

00:00:25.580 as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith welcomed Prime Minister Mark Carney.

00:00:30.000 to the oil capital of Canada to talk about their next step forward,

00:00:33.960 how to expand on the Memorandum of Understanding from last fall

00:00:38.020 and potentially, but not surely yet, move forward on a pipeline.

00:00:43.680 Premier Smith was excited to announce that within 18 months,

00:00:47.560 she could have a full answer.

00:00:49.820 And hello, today is a good day for Alberta and it's a good day for Canada.

00:00:54.200 It's an honour to be here with Prime Minister Mark Carney

00:00:56.500 to announce a major step forward in unlocking the enormous potential of Canadian energy.

00:01:02.040 And I'm happy to share with Albertans that we'll be signing an agreement today that clearly sets

00:01:06.200 out a pathway to the construction of a new oil pipeline to Asian markets, commencing as early

00:01:11.100 as September 1st, 2027. And Prime Minister Carney was saying that this was about trust.

00:01:16.760 We're building trust of investors, that Alberta and Canada are reliable and attractive destinations

00:01:22.560 where opportunities are plentiful the rules are clear and one project means one review

00:01:29.340 the trust of asian countries who want our energy because they know that we are a safe stable

00:01:38.160 reliable partner in a world that is anything but hello and welcome to the full comment podcast my

00:01:44.100 name is brian lily your host and today well what does this deal actually mean for the oil patch

00:01:49.860 There's some excitement, there is some skepticism, there's lots of questions that remain to be answered.

00:01:54.960 Joining us to talk about this and bring his perspective as someone with lawn experience in the oil patch is Paul Colburn.

00:02:02.140 He is with Surge Energy, their president and CEO, and a lawn resume that goes back.

00:02:07.040 Paul, thanks for the time today.

00:02:09.200 Thank you very much, and I'm thrilled to be speaking with you.

00:02:12.360 I would like to highlight that I think over the last several years I've watched your program and feel that you've created a very balanced way of looking at the issues in Canada and that you actually hold people accountable to their words.

00:02:27.300 And I really like that in your style.

00:02:30.180 Oh, thank you very much, Paul.

00:02:32.360 Well, we'll start with that.

00:02:33.740 I'm skeptical and excited.

00:02:35.440 I guess that puts me somewhere in the middle when it comes to this announcement.

00:02:38.700 I want things to move forward, but I'm looking at some obstacles in the way, and being a journalist, you're naturally skeptical.

00:02:47.820 So as someone in the business, give me your reaction from when you first heard about it to now.

00:02:55.280 How are you feeling about this deal?

00:02:58.480 I feel very excited about the deal, and I think things take time.

00:03:04.280 Everybody wants the answer today, tomorrow, the next day, but I view it as steps, and I think Prime Minister Carney's words of building trust, the capital markets want to see the steps, they want to establish the trust, so I'm quite excited about the pushing along of this key project on the MOU pipeline.

00:03:27.140 there's a couple of different parts of it there is the pipeline part there is the carbon tax part

00:03:33.440 there is the carbon capture and storage part um the carbon tax is still going to be going

00:03:40.600 up significantly six and a half times what it is now um john mckenzie of synovus is someone who

00:03:47.180 called it out and thinks that well we don't we don't need that that the world has changed

00:03:53.220 For the longest time, it felt like the oil industry in Canada asked for a carbon tax as a way to say, see, we're good, we're legitimate, now please let us develop our natural resources.

00:04:05.600 Do we still need the carbon tax in the new era that we see ourselves in, when the whole world is thirsty and demanding oil that doesn't come from a dangerous spot, you know, such as Iran, the Strait of Hormuz?

00:04:18.060 I think it's all about balance when you look at it. We seem to go from these crazy right, left, forward, backward positions. And I think balance, balance in the negotiations. And I think it's a reasonable balance has been struck with the carbon tax limits that have been put on.

00:04:42.280 Just remember this, the Supreme Court of Canada spoke, and they said the federal government has the right to put a carbon tax on, and that's law.

00:04:53.340 So, within that, it was supposed to go much higher, I think, to 170.

00:05:00.940 So, I think the balance struck is, okay, we need that and we want that commitment on a sequestration project.

00:05:11.560 But when 70 is too high and then phasing it in, I believe, to 2040 is a reasonable way to make it happen.

00:05:20.560 I'm not saying John McKenzie's wrong because he has a different perspective.

00:05:26.860 But in a balance to get something done and, to your word or Mark Carney's word, establish the trust, I think it's a fair balance is struck on that issue.

00:05:38.400 Does it put us in any kind of disadvantage, though, if we are the only major oil-producing

00:05:45.480 country that has an industrial carbon tax?

00:05:52.400 It definitely puts us at the word disadvantage.

00:05:56.480 If the world was going that way dramatically quickly on a movement way too far to the one

00:06:04.320 side, having it in place is a balance, in my opinion. So to me, we've struck a balance here

00:06:12.920 where we say, yes, you can go ahead with this project, but still have a feel that we are not

00:06:19.480 just abandoning the carbon sequestration initiatives and momentum that had occurred.

00:06:26.780 So Canada's a leader in many times, we lead in our environmental and regulatory

00:06:32.980 positions, we lead the world. So for us to strike a deal for the development of our huge resources

00:06:40.220 in Alberta and Canada to be balanced against a reasonable, some might say too high, time will

00:06:48.960 tell. But I think a balance has struck and I don't think it makes us more uncompetitive. It just makes

00:06:55.660 us a leader in getting a project like this done. It's kind of, I think, a leadership-type position

00:07:03.500 is trying to be established. I'd be remiss not asking you about the Pathways Project and carbon

00:07:08.700 capture and storage. This is something that, to me, felt like the industry wanting to pay the

00:07:14.060 dangeld for years, that this is the price of business, it's what we have to do. Still seems

00:07:20.520 like it's the price of business now could be as high as 30 billion dollars that it will cost the

00:07:26.700 canadian industry to get this done is it needed anymore it's it's part of that balance that i

00:07:34.420 think you want to be able to show the world i have uh children and grandchildren now so i want to be

00:07:40.720 able to say that we left alberta canada the world in a better spot i know that sounds kind of

00:07:46.160 generalistically, you know, Greenfield and all that bubbly.

00:07:50.040 But the truth of it is 10, this is Secretary of Energy Chris Wright about a few months ago,

00:07:57.960 $10 trillion was spent over the last 15 to 20 years on ridiculous investments

00:08:06.100 and solar, wind, green initiatives that are all being written off,

00:08:11.880 all the management teams fired, including the three super majors in Europe.

00:08:16.160 that all bent to climate change who have now all lost their jobs, boards replaced, management teams

00:08:21.400 replaced, BP replaced their CEO twice. They're all back to oil. So $30 billion to me seems like,

00:08:29.920 again, I'm not sure of the number. I don't know if it's the right number or not. But when you

00:08:34.840 compare it to, how about clean ethical oil that has the carbon tax and then the emission

00:08:41.760 gateway pipeline sequestration project 30 billion to air on the side of the angels on that balance

00:08:51.500 it actually uh to me it it sends a amazing signal that canada's both got the resources

00:08:59.420 got the plays trying to create a balanced strategy and that we're ethical we're not just

00:09:05.720 Throwing out the, there's a good argument for climate change and CO2 sequestration.

00:09:12.980 How about that?

00:09:13.920 $10 trillion was spent on ridiculous projects that had no EBITDA, that had no business case

00:09:20.080 whatsoever, and they're now all being written off.

00:09:23.380 And what did the $10 trillion get us?

00:09:25.620 Chris Wright said 1.4% of world energy needs are wind and 1.2% for solar, for $10 trillion.

00:09:36.260 Well, I like the feel of, we know our oil works, but let's make it clean ethical oil with the, I don't know the exact numbers as well as others do, but the carbon tax.

00:09:48.720 And then you had the Pathways Project. How about developing ours with clean ethical oil under the best regulatory system in Canada for health and safety in the world, for Alberta? I like the feel of that. It feels like I'm not selling my future generation, my kids and my grandkids and your grandkids down the river. We're going to do it ethically. I like the feel of that, to be honest.

00:10:13.900 Prime Minister Carney is definitely talking about oil,

00:10:17.600 or as he will often just call it, conventional energy,

00:10:20.600 although he's getting more comfortable uttering the word oil,

00:10:23.220 which he wasn't comfortable uttering for a while,

00:10:25.960 not in a positive sense anyway.

00:10:28.700 But he's still committed to net zero,

00:10:33.220 and he keeps talking about decarbonized energy.

00:10:37.540 Is there actually, in the international market,

00:10:40.700 whether we're talking Asia or Europe,

00:10:43.200 two of the most likely markets for exports if we're to do this right is there a desire among

00:10:51.680 potential customers to say yeah you know what i'll pay a premium for decarbonized oil or

00:10:58.640 oil with a lower carbon footprint is that a a driving factor well i think it's a it's a fundamental

00:11:07.600 lack of understanding on the importance of oil and i will point out that one of the biggest

00:11:13.120 changes in my 30-year career happened on November 12, 2025. A lot of people don't even know what

00:11:19.300 happened. I don't. The IEA came out and said, peak oil is not 2030. Brian, they said it's 2050.

00:11:30.780 And India said, yeah, for us, it's more like 2070. China said 2060. So my point on that is

00:11:38.260 the importance of oil on the planet. You have 8 billion people in the world, and for the first

00:11:43.800 time in history, 6 billion people are industrializing at the same time. China, India, Asia,

00:11:51.960 Africa. And we have a massive worldwide shortage of oil caused by pretty much right back to 2014

00:12:00.180 when the OPEC group, Saudi, decided to break the Permian Basin. And there's been a fundamental

00:12:06.640 a lack of investment in our industry for 12 long years, let alone the terrible track record,

00:12:14.300 I believe, of that previous liberal government. And now demand has kept going up to the right.

00:12:22.220 When I started in the business, the world demand for crude was about 70 million barrels a day.

00:12:27.080 Now it's 105 million barrels a day, and it's going to continue to grow until 2050.

00:12:33.740 and Canada is a world leader

00:12:36.740 with the fourth biggest producer in the world

00:12:38.760 at 5.5 million barrels a day

00:12:40.960 and we can bring with the MOU

00:12:42.980 and the other projects

00:12:45.120 plus the Keystone Light project

00:12:48.420 that Trump approved

00:12:49.460 we can get up to somewhere around

00:12:51.660 8 million barrels a day

00:12:53.360 and be the third maybe biggest producer

00:12:56.780 in the world or whatever

00:12:58.220 so Canada has those rich resources

00:13:01.060 And I think that bringing in a Bill C-5 early in the mandate that Mr. Carney got is a signal to the world, and then to your words earlier, establishing a trust that we are going to open up the world to our world-class resources in Canada, our coal, oil, natural gas, pulp and paper, wheat, arable land, water, uranium, potash.

00:13:26.920 We have it all, but we've been ridiculously managing our resources for nine years

00:13:33.600 under the previous government, wildly inept performance, as you have reported in the past,

00:13:39.220 and I agree with you.

00:13:40.620 So to me, the trust started with the Bill C-5 coming in, and then from that point, it's

00:13:48.300 now show me.

00:13:49.380 And I think the MOU is an example of, okay, there's a first project.

00:13:54.420 The Keystone Light could be a second project.

00:13:56.780 So I'm more than cautiously optimistic on this.

00:14:02.340 Look, I'm excited about Keystone Light.

00:14:06.100 I'm excited about everyone figuring out ways to put more product through their existing pipe or expand without building a whole new system.

00:14:16.720 All of that is really good.

00:14:18.380 my concern is, will we actually have a new pipeline to Tidewater? I've been talking about

00:14:27.160 pipelines to Tidewater for well over a decade and a half now. And if it's exhausting for me,

00:14:36.760 I can't imagine what it's like for people like you in the industry. And so this agreement, okay,

00:14:43.100 good but i was expecting some after the mou i was expecting things a bit faster now and now we see

00:14:50.500 the new agreement and it does have some soft language such as it says if designated it's

00:14:56.820 talking about the pipeline project if designated we will do this and quote canada intends to make

00:15:02.900 best efforts it's still seems like a wishy-washy agreement and then we've got that september 1st

00:15:12.520 2027 deadline to come up with an answer all of this seems slow and non-committal at this point

00:15:19.400 is it enough to to get the industry saying yes we believe you're serious or is everyone still

00:15:25.660 going to be sitting back and and and holding on because well they're not quite sure so we're not

00:15:32.400 quite sure well to your point if you go back though just to a year or two ago under bill c69

00:15:41.460 which was put in place by the liberal government under Trudeau,

00:15:45.880 the No Pipelines Act,

00:15:47.440 you were looking at summer five, seven, nine, never,

00:15:52.200 years of being tied up to try and get a project done.

00:15:56.500 And I could tell you foreign investment in Canada

00:15:59.760 went off a cliff in the nine-year reign.

00:16:04.000 So anything that would be a year approval to me

00:16:08.280 is a massive speed up to what was there.

00:16:12.180 I'm looking at the UAE and saying, come on, they're doubling theirs in two years.

00:16:16.500 And we're hoping to get to an answer in two years and then five years to build it. 0.84

00:16:24.160 You know, I've made this point several times on the podcast, Paul, that when Mark Carney said we need to think big, act bigger, move at speeds not seen in generations, I applauded.

00:16:34.300 And I said, good, this is what we need.

00:16:36.320 It's what we want.

00:16:37.740 I'm just, it's not feeling to me fast enough yet.

00:16:40.560 maybe I'm just impatient. No, I think you're right. And you are impatient. But just remember

00:16:47.960 this, he's dealing with the incredible mess he was handed. And he's trying to open up the world

00:16:56.140 to Canada's amazing resources. And just remember, he didn't have a majority until a few weeks ago

00:17:03.300 when he won the three by-elections and the lady crossed the floor. So he also has some

00:17:09.660 ridiculous performers still in his caucus 0.89

00:17:14.180 from the previous government, and he's slowly... 0.97

00:17:17.000 So we've just learned about those 14 MPs

00:17:19.540 that signed a letter, taking them to task,

00:17:22.460 accusing them of backsliding on the environment.

00:17:24.780 They say they're trying to be constructive,

00:17:26.440 but clearly they don't like this agreement

00:17:28.340 with Premier Smith.

00:17:30.720 Does it, I mean, to me it feels like

00:17:32.840 the Canadian public is willing to give

00:17:35.940 Prime Minister Carney an awful lot of political capital

00:17:38.600 to move forward with projects like this.

00:17:41.080 The polling seems to show that Canadians are on board,

00:17:44.560 but are you worried that he's got problems

00:17:47.320 inside his own house that could complicate these?

00:17:50.480 Yeah, so I think he is a smart man, pragmatic.

00:17:53.820 You just look at his track record and career.

00:17:56.920 He understands the resources Canada has

00:18:00.580 and our need to not run up our debt anymore,

00:18:04.260 not run up our M1, M2 money supply,

00:18:06.620 open up our resources to the world on fair agreements and barter for the other things

00:18:12.700 we need with our amazing resources. That's simple economics 203, the law of natural advantage.

00:18:19.840 But the prior government, and to your very good point, I didn't know I was 14, but he has some

00:18:25.740 malcontents who basically ran our country into the ground for nine and a half years. And when I say

00:18:33.340 that, I have the proof of that. I have the proof. If you look at our GDP per capita was tied to the

00:18:41.060 United States under Brian Mulroney's free trade agreement and the succeeding governments. We're

00:18:46.940 number two in the world, in the entire OECD, right up there tied to the U.S. Under the nine-year

00:18:54.680 Trudeau government, our GDP per capita went to the second lowest, not in the G7, not in the G20.

00:19:04.920 In the entire OECD, our GDP per capita dropped to the second worst to only Luxembourg in the nine

00:19:14.000 years under that government. So any of these 14 members that are somehow not going to open Canada

00:19:21.620 a backup for business, I hope that people, when they go into a voting booth, hold them

00:19:26.920 responsible for the track record that they established under that prior government, because

00:19:32.400 I believe Mr. Carney's bang on.

00:19:36.560 You seem confident that he's willing to go ahead with this, that he's not hedging bets?

00:19:42.720 Well, again, I believe the fact that he didn't even have a majority initially, he's got a

00:19:47.600 tentative majority. He's trying hard to weed the incredibly poor performers out and appoint them

00:19:55.820 as ambassadors and get them out of the caucus. There's a few more to go.

00:20:01.820 Exactly. He's literally, we may need to have a general election on some of these key points,

00:20:08.060 but I do think the steps he's trying are trying to show the world, and to your very good word,

00:20:12.940 to go back to the start of the conversation, establish the trust. This is, I'm hoping you

00:20:19.240 can see it. There's foreign investment in Canada over the last nine years of the Trudeau government.

00:20:24.820 So to turn that and get foreign capital coming back in, you mentioned investors in the Middle

00:20:32.460 East, investors in Japan and other markets and the United States back into Canada. I believe

00:20:39.580 Kearney is trying to establish the trust to bring that capital back.

00:20:47.320 Has enough been done at this point to lure a private proponent for the pipeline out of the woodwork yet?

00:21:01.460 Because Enbridge has said maybe, but I think that's as far as Greg Epple's gone.

00:21:07.420 Maybe. And I think government would step in if needed to, but I don't think that Premier Smith wants to own a pipeline, and I don't think Prime Minister Carney wants to own a pipeline. So where is it at in terms of the industry feeling secure?

00:21:24.880 again your your question is very um very good because think back to the debacle that was

00:21:34.800 the keystone x up and we both said let's go and i think it was at least a third built

00:21:42.100 and then new governments come in and it's abandoned and that capital's hopefully not

00:21:47.900 forever wasted and written off but there's an example of no trust and government turning it

00:21:54.640 over. So I'm not that knowledgeable, but I would think that pipeline companies, if they can see

00:22:02.320 certainty on timelines in particular, and there was that follow-up announcement that Daniel made.

00:22:08.540 I think that was about, okay, no, here are the actual timelines that we're agreeing to. And I

00:22:14.260 think if you were running a big pipeline company, you'd be, okay, I'm optimistic, but show me some

00:22:21.300 timelines because I've got other places I can spend my capital. Canada clearly has the resources.

00:22:27.520 Show me you have the will, federally and provincially, to do it. And I think they're

00:22:33.720 trying hard. I actually do. I give such credit to Danielle and to Mr. Carney for pushing hard on

00:22:41.460 this. And yes, at every step, there's going to be naysayers and people that judge it. But I would

00:22:48.900 think it's got to be getting to a point where if they can establish timelines, the big fear for me

00:22:55.660 is, and I think if you were running a big pipeline company, you'd go, well, I want to go ahead with

00:23:00.200 this. I love Canada's resources. I love building it. But what if that government falls? Or what if

00:23:08.860 the U.S. government falls? And I don't want another failed project like Keystone XL.

00:23:14.580 well the one thing business hates is uncertainty um and clearly right now there's a bit of

00:23:22.340 uncertainty about alberta when it comes to separation um love the province go there as

00:23:28.240 often as i can but you know last uh june or july was early july sitting in joey's down off the bow

00:23:37.260 river with a couple of people from the energy industry and folks who listen to the podcast

00:23:43.760 watch my videos online,

00:23:46.060 were stopping to say hello

00:23:47.900 and tell me that they're voting for separation this time.

00:23:51.800 I know the polling shows that it's not there yet,

00:23:54.260 but does that, the fact that it's being talked about,

00:23:58.060 that it could be on the ballot,

00:24:00.080 is that spooking folks away from Alberta's energy patch?

00:24:05.800 You know, that is certainly not the type of certainty

00:24:10.260 that foreign investors would want to see.

00:24:13.760 I'm a believer in Canada. I'm a believer in Alberta. I believe in Alberta within Canada. And I really like the strides being made. I love the fact that Mr. Carney came out and visited with top CEOs in Calgary, established Bill C-5, asked for the list of projects, announced the MOU after good hard work with Danielle on the MOU pipeline, have come out with this second announcement.

00:24:42.540 So I want to be a big, I want to believe.

00:24:47.860 And as you said, I'm not a believer in separatism.

00:24:51.840 I don't want to have that as part of the feel.

00:24:56.640 But there are times, and you saw it in Quebec under René Levesque,

00:24:59.960 where at times, if you think it's not a fair or good deal,

00:25:03.560 you have to stand up for your rights and your province.

00:25:07.340 So I think that sentiment,

00:25:09.340 There's always going to be the right-wing sentiment that feels that we're getting a raw deal in the West here.

00:25:19.360 So it's just probably – I've seen it.

00:25:22.440 You have in your career seen Western separatism talked about many times.

00:25:27.740 And after the last nine years under Trudeau, I would say it's running near an all-time high.

00:25:32.880 And yet at the same time, so are the Carney liberals in polling.

00:25:36.900 They're not ahead of Pierre Paulyev and the Conservatives yet in Alberta,

00:25:40.200 but they're at levels they haven't seen in years in Alberta.

00:25:44.260 It is a strange time politically in Alberta politics.

00:25:49.080 Let's take a break right now.

00:25:50.500 When we come back, Paul, I do want to ask you about

00:25:53.080 what other steps need to be taken to smooth the way for this to go forward.

00:25:57.620 And, well, the elephant in the room, I guess you could say,

00:26:00.720 and that is what about opposition from some First Nations groups

00:26:06.000 specifically activist groups that believe they have a veto back in moments

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00:26:41.540 There were so many missed opportunities to catch this before the devastating thing happened.

00:26:48.320 A third of them we found literally in the phone book.

00:26:51.840 These people were not afraid.

00:26:54.060 They knew that nobody was effectively hunting them.

00:26:56.700 They knew they had escaped justice, that they were going to die in their beds.

00:27:01.000 When I give talks at law schools is that the charter ultimately is empowering a minority, and it's empowering a minority that's a guild across the country, and it's a fairly elite guild, and the guild is lawyers.

00:27:09.960 Families who were split by referendum and brothers and sisters who never talked to each other for years after the referendum because they were so angry at each other because of the emotions on both sides.

00:27:22.620 The reason he was assassinated was not because he was trying to put a satellite into space,

00:27:27.560 but because the gun that he was creating had other applications that made him and the gun very dangerous.

00:27:37.800 It's finally here. A new season of Canada Did What?

00:27:41.640 Host media podcast that revisits the big Canadian political events you might think you remember

00:27:47.000 and tells you the real story you never knew.

00:27:50.060 I'm Tristan Hopper.

00:27:51.600 The voices you just heard are from our brand new season two.

00:27:55.400 We will unpack some of the pivotal moments that helped define our country,

00:27:59.140 often without a vote, usually without a plan,

00:28:01.760 and sometimes without anyone admitting what they've done.

00:28:05.540 We'll find out how Canada became a welcoming paradise 0.72

00:28:08.580 for untold numbers of Nazi war criminals after the Second World War. 0.85

00:28:13.160 We let them build monuments to their wartime exploits

00:28:15.940 and even ended up honouring a Nazi fighter in the House of Commons.

00:28:20.000 And I'm sorry to say that none of that happened by accident.

00:28:23.760 We'll bring you the little-known story of a troubled Canadian rocket scientist

00:28:27.420 who turned to a sinister life of selling giant guns to terrible people.

00:28:32.860 And if that sounds like a spy novel, it ends like one too.

00:28:36.220 You'll hear the behind-the-scenes story of Quebec's attempted secession from Canada

00:28:40.040 and how very close we came to a political crisis

00:28:43.300 that would have made Brexit look like a picnic.

00:28:46.540 You'll hear about how the much-celebrated Charter of Rights and Freedoms

00:28:50.320 turned into something its creators never wanted,

00:28:53.460 and how many of the most extravagant warnings about the document

00:28:56.660 were all quickly proven true.

00:28:59.300 And you'll even hear about how authorities bungled multiple chances

00:29:02.900 to stop the deadliest terrorist attack in our country's history

00:29:05.860 and then proceeded to pretend it never happened.

00:29:09.360 These aren't dusty history lessons.

00:29:11.480 There are stories about power, ambition, madness, and the things about Canada that a lot of people would rather ignore.

00:29:18.280 But not you. You won't want to miss an episode.

00:29:21.600 Subscribe to make sure you get all of Season 2 starting March 2026 anywhere you get your podcasts.

00:29:29.160 Some of the legislation that is centered around hurdles, for instance, Bill C-69, the so-called No More Pipelines Bill, is still in place.

00:29:41.380 So if you're the private sector and you're thinking about trying to build this,

00:29:47.060 because remember, I would have said there's two challenges.

00:29:50.480 One is just getting approval for a pipeline.

00:29:53.140 But two is to fill a million barrel-a-day pipeline,

00:29:57.620 there's going to be a lot of projects that's going to be required to be approved

00:30:00.660 to be able to actually fill it.

00:30:01.840 So I would say it's still to be determined as to whether or not the plausibility

00:30:08.140 of actually getting a pipeline filled remains to be seen.

00:30:14.340 That was Adam Wattros.

00:30:15.640 He is the executive chairman of Strathcona Resources,

00:30:18.560 a major investor in the oil industry in this country.

00:30:23.580 And Paul, I have to ask you, he's another person who's saying,

00:30:28.800 look, there's still heavy lifting to be done.

00:30:31.040 How do you get the pipeline built?

00:30:33.760 How do you fill the pipeline when you've still got C-69?

00:30:38.140 C-48, you know, we can't bring in tankers off the West Coast right now. Is there still a lot

00:30:46.540 of heavy lifting that has to be done? And do you think that Prime Minister Carney,

00:30:51.940 with that opposition within his own caucus, is going to try and move ahead?

00:30:58.080 In my own opinion, I think that the MOU pipeline debate as it's going on right now

00:31:06.820 is a major sign of the change of sentiment in Ottawa.

00:31:13.260 And I think it's been this way for Alberta,

00:31:17.600 but in Ottawa, that we need projects like this

00:31:20.080 to open up our country to the rest of the industrializing world.

00:31:25.060 So I look at it and go, to me, the MOU pipeline is a microcosm.

00:31:30.640 So if you start looking at Bill C-5,

00:31:32.740 recognizing that the Bill C-69 was effectively a sterilization of almost any type of project in

00:31:41.220 Canada for the last nine years and foreign investment dropped off a cliff. And not just

00:31:46.840 for oil, that was mining, that was forestry, that was everything. Exactly, exactly. So Bill C-5,

00:31:53.640 and in a prior life I used to be a lawyer, but I'm not anymore, so I'm not giving legal advice.

00:31:58.980 I'm just saying the federal government has the plenary power under—it always had this power called POG, Peace, Order, and Good Government.

00:32:07.880 If things are in the national interest, the federal government can move and enforce them.

00:32:13.460 And there'll be special interest groups all have to step aside because this is in the national interest.

00:32:19.580 Well, Bill C-5 that liberals put in, the Kearney liberals, is just a solidification, if you ask me, of saying projects of this magnitude that are our key to our country, we can't keep running up our debt.

00:32:34.700 We can't keep issuing paper at historic levels on our M1-M2 money supply.

00:32:39.960 At some point, we have to open up our resources.

00:32:42.340 So I think Bill C-5 has to answer Adam's point about Bill C-69 and the No Pipelines Act. So it's a pretty bold step was taken with a minority government by Mr. Carney early in his mandate.

00:33:00.160 Within a month, I think he had that bill passed, and there's only so much he could do when he had a minority, and as you said, some malcontent still left over from the horrible era of the prior government.

00:33:15.160 So, I like the steps.

00:33:16.880 He passed it with the support of the conservatives.

00:33:19.200 Exactly.

00:33:20.240 So, to me, that's a positive sign that they are serious about opening our country up, and he has a very narrow majority.

00:33:28.960 But like you said, he has some malcontents in his own caucus.

00:33:33.120 So clearly there may have to be an election vote on this with this as one of the major issues to get him or Pierre a majority so they can truly put through a national project that's in the best interest.

00:33:50.040 Before we turn to the issue of dealing with First Nations opposition, British Columbia is saying that they will not allow this to go forward.

00:34:03.840 They are acting, Premier Eby, as if he has a veto.

00:34:07.780 You mentioned peace order and good government.

00:34:09.900 We know what the Supreme Court has said in the past, that they do not.

00:34:13.240 But are you concerned that there is, while there may not be an actual veto, that there would be an effective veto due to politics at play?

00:34:28.920 it comes down to your very good question right there at the end if the federal government has

00:34:36.460 the plenary power under peace order and good government and or bill c5 then the bulldozers

00:34:43.840 are going to move and you'll see it if you saw it in trump's first term when keystone xl was

00:34:50.100 approved it might even have been obama i'm not sure but when it was approved it went ahead and

00:34:57.600 And there were Aboriginals, there were others that were, you know, Indigenous people coming out and saying, oh, we have a treaty right here, we have this or that, and it moved.

00:35:11.280 At some point, you have to have the resolve to do it.

00:35:14.960 And my biggest fear would be without a majority and Mal could tend to sit back in his caucus.

00:35:21.540 Does that give Carney the resolve he needs to do it?

00:35:25.920 Because I think Danielle has the resolve.

00:35:28.980 Again, she doesn't have a huge majority either.

00:35:31.860 So you nailed almost the crux of the problem there.

00:35:35.440 Even if we do go, are we going to let a province decide what's in the national interest for Canada?

00:35:43.280 It shouldn't happen, but unless the federal government has the resolve, then I think it is questionable.

00:35:53.420 So that's the crux of the issue.

00:35:55.320 You nailed it.

00:35:55.920 Well, and then even if they decide to bulldoze the province of British Columbia and say, you don't have a say, there's a divide within First Nations communities.

00:36:07.000 So you think back to Northern Gateway before that was canceled, they had equity and participation agreements with 31 different communities along the route.

00:36:17.640 They had the majority of people supporting them, but there was always someone willing to say, oh, no, no, no, they don't speak for the band, I do, or we're hereditary chiefs, things like that.

00:36:28.920 We saw that with Coastal Gas Link.

00:36:31.520 We've seen that with projects here in Ontario.

00:36:34.900 And that becomes a major issue.

00:36:37.860 One of those groups goes by the name of Coastal First Nations, which makes it sound like they are a group that represents all the First Nations along the B.C.'s coast.

00:36:48.880 They're not really.

00:36:49.720 Their official legal name is the Great Bear Initiative.

00:36:53.900 They're an activist group founded decades ago with money from American foundations that just opposed the energy industry.

00:37:03.620 And I want to read to you the comment from Marilyn Slett the other day,

00:37:06.620 the president of Coastal First Nations.

00:37:08.800 Again, an NGO in Vancouver.

00:37:12.160 Despite their name, that's what they are.

00:37:13.620 And she said,

00:37:14.160 We have heard directly from the Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Natural Resources,

00:37:18.900 Tim Hodgson, that no project and no route will proceed without the support of affected First Nations

00:37:24.620 and the province in which it is proposed.

00:37:26.900 As the legally recognized rights and title holders under Canadian and international law,

00:37:32.160 we do not support a proposed oil pipeline and tankers route to the north coast of bc now i i

00:37:39.600 would argue that they are not the rights and title holder um they some of them are representative

00:37:44.900 members of the bands that are the rights and title holder but there's a lot of a lot of word

00:37:50.180 play going on in there there is a lot of um stagecraft a lot of politics at play this is

00:37:58.720 far from a done deal. So I'm going to give you an example of statesmanship. And myself and 11

00:38:10.360 other CEOs in Calgary, this is years ago, were called to a meeting. Brian Mulroney, long retired,

00:38:19.200 came in to talk to us. And he explained how they brought together a number of things,

00:38:26.240 one of which was the free trade agreement.

00:38:28.860 The free trade agreement was bad, was great for Canada,

00:38:32.880 is what the perception was,

00:38:34.440 not as good, but still good for the USA.

00:38:37.560 And Ronald Reagan and Brian Mulroney put it through

00:38:41.040 and it was good for both,

00:38:43.000 but it was incredibly good for Canada.

00:38:44.780 Our GDP went from 900 billion a year to 1.7 billion.

00:38:50.200 And we didn't have silly immigration policies

00:38:53.160 He's reducing the effect of it on GDP per capita, which is your standard of living.

00:38:59.120 And for 30 years, Canada enjoyed the highest standard of living jump right alongside the U.S. in the world.

00:39:06.600 Another one he said, this is former Prime Minister Mulroney before he died at this meeting,

00:39:12.840 he said another example, the Constitution.

00:39:16.280 You can't get a harder opposition than Rene Levesque saying, I am not going to join this Constitution.

00:39:23.160 And they worked out the subject to clause in the Constitution.

00:39:30.180 But when they were sequestered in Charlottetown in a huge hotel, he would not let the 10 or 11 premiers at that time, 12 it would be, I guess, or 11 or 12 today, but he would not let them leave.

00:39:47.080 He would not let them go to bed.

00:39:49.240 They were staying up to the point of exhaustion.

00:39:54.040 This is trying to get the Charlottetown Accord through.

00:39:56.160 Exactly.

00:39:57.340 And so that is, we have to have statesmanship show up.

00:40:01.660 It's not going to be easy, but the premier of BC for a national interest pipeline, he should squawk if that's his calling.

00:40:10.920 But at the end of the day, it should be done what's in the best interest of all Canadians.

00:40:16.000 And it is, guys, for us to open up some of the biggest oil reserves on the planet, as you said, at a time when the world is thirsty for oil, it's at some point we have to start showing statesmanship and doing what's best.

00:40:32.560 And there's going to be special interest groups that are not happy with this.

00:40:35.560 And then you have to go, there's a famous saying, I was so scared for my job that I quit doing my job.

00:40:44.160 and politicians want to get re-elected.

00:40:47.100 But at some point you have to say,

00:40:49.300 I'm going to do my job

00:40:51.180 and some people aren't going to like me,

00:40:53.620 but it's going to be part of my legacy

00:40:55.720 and I'm going to take this country to another level

00:40:58.460 and I'm going to do my job.

00:41:00.280 I'm not going to be worried about my job.

00:41:05.000 Right now, your firm is in conventional oil

00:41:08.780 across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

00:41:11.360 um is there and you guys are going through boom because the price of oil is almost a hundred

00:41:18.120 dollars western canadian select over 80 uh does that disappear if oil goes back down a bit if it

00:41:25.560 hits down to 65 70 dollars a barrel would we have enough oil to fill these pipelines um you know

00:41:34.100 both the the new one that we're talking about of a million barrels a day but also all of these

00:41:38.460 expanded projects?

00:41:42.200 Absolutely.

00:41:43.820 We have, I think, the second or third biggest reserves on the planet.

00:41:48.980 Obviously, the oil sands being the primary driver of that.

00:41:54.400 Amazing new discoveries in the Manville Stack, the Clearwater, the surge of Sparky Play,

00:42:02.140 Southeast Saskatchewan, heavy oil along the western edge of Saskatchewan,

00:42:06.440 sag deep projects that are coming on the duvernay the montany canada has almost inexhaustible

00:42:12.500 resources to bring to the table for the six billion people that are trying to get a higher

00:42:18.500 and better lifestyle that comes with light sweet crude oil so canada has those resources i would

00:42:26.160 say absolutely we just need to open up our country to those markets and that's going to take some

00:42:32.500 resolve and some statesmanship but i i do believe that we'll get it it's interesting what you were

00:42:39.560 saying earlier about peak oil i don't know how many times i've been told we're hitting peak oil

00:42:43.720 and then we just roll on past it demand keeps going up uh i think you said india said 20 70

00:42:50.840 i'm gonna say at least that exactly just based on gut so uh this is a an industry that will um

00:42:59.940 We'll be looking after our country and the people that live here long after you and I are gone.

00:43:04.260 Not that I don't wish you a long life, Paul, but it's going to be a long time before we run out of that sticky stuff below the ground.

00:43:11.700 No, and you're right.

00:43:12.880 And I will point this out.

00:43:14.380 So the number of meetings that I'm having at Surge and we're having here with U.S. investors, foreign investors,

00:43:22.100 has gone nuclear in the last six, eight, ten months with Bill C-5, Canada's amazing resources.

00:43:28.160 it's it's amazing how people want to open up and barter with us trade with us and trade our oil

00:43:36.040 and our coal our natural gas or uranium potash all the things we have our water and open canada

00:43:43.880 so what i'm thrilled to show you or tell you is for nine years i'll turn one massive negative

00:43:51.380 into a huge positive. For nine years, investors stayed away from Canada, Bill C-69 being one of

00:43:58.460 the best indicators of that. They literally, you couldn't get a U.S. investor to talk to you about

00:44:03.920 Canada under the Trudeau Liberal government for nine years. And now, all their major basins,

00:44:10.880 the Eagleford, the North Dakota Bakken, the Haynesville, and the Permian is now looking like

00:44:15.660 they hit their peak called a Hubbard curve.

00:44:18.680 So when a reservoir has about 40 to 45% of the oil pulled out of it that's there,

00:44:24.640 it starts to peak and roll over.

00:44:27.120 So the U.S. major basins for oil in particular are starting to roll over,

00:44:31.680 and Canadian oil is seen, and you've seen Shell just bought ARC for $22 billion.

00:44:38.660 Aventa bought NuVista for $15 billion, I believe it was.

00:44:43.140 So you're seeing deals get done already where people are going, okay, Canada's back, we're ready to put our money back into Canada. So I love the feel of that. And hopefully, as you said, we can, you know, deliver those barrels to a thirsty market.

00:45:00.540 One of the things that I'm hearing now is that the province is getting close to a deal with Pathways. They may start out smaller than 30 billion, but they will start and go from there.

00:45:10.220 no it it like 30 billion sounds pretty damn daunting to me so i love the idea start at

00:45:17.800 modular let's start with 20 of the project and get it going and then get the mou pipeline going

00:45:24.020 and then we you know ramp it up we don't have to spend it all this year and and bankrupt ourselves

00:45:30.200 but start the project on a pilot basis we do a lot of that in the oil industry start a pilot

00:45:35.160 get it going get it proved up learn from it that's how the oil sands were developed they

00:45:39.520 didn't start out at four million barrels a day. And it feels good that we phase it in as the

00:45:46.440 demand for oil goes up, the MOU pipeline. We take Canada from five and a half million barrels a day

00:45:51.940 up to six, seven, eight, and we expand the project as we go. That feels like a good start by Danielle

00:45:59.220 to do it that way. Paul Corbin with Surge Energy. Thanks so much for the time.

00:46:05.100 Had a lot of fun. Thank you.

00:46:06.340 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.

00:46:08.520 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.

00:46:10.120 This episode was produced by Andre Pru,

00:46:12.260 theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:46:13.980 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:46:16.300 Make sure you hit share, subscribe,

00:46:18.540 let your friends know about us.

00:46:19.900 Thanks for listening.

00:46:20.740 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:46:28.340 There were so many missed opportunities

00:46:30.680 to catch this before the devastating thing happened.

00:46:34.660 A third of them we found literally in the phone book.

00:46:38.560 These people were not afraid.

00:46:40.780 They knew that nobody was effectively hunting them.

00:46:43.420 They knew they had escaped justice, that they were going to die in their beds.

00:46:47.840 When I give talks at law schools, it's that the charter ultimately is empowering a minority.

00:46:51.660 And it's empowering a minority that's a guild across the country.

00:46:54.680 And it's a fairly elite guild, and the guild is lawyers.

00:46:56.680 Families who were split by referendum and brothers and sisters

00:47:01.800 who never talked to each other for years after the referendum

00:47:04.680 because they were so angry at each other because of the emotions on both sides.

00:47:09.440 The reason he was assassinated was not because he was trying to put a satellite into space,

00:47:14.140 but because the gun that he was creating had other applications

00:47:20.200 that made him and the gun very dangerous.

00:47:24.520 It's finally here.

00:47:26.060 A new season of Canada Did What?

00:47:27.940 a post-media podcast that revisits the big Canadian political events

00:47:32.060 you might think you remember and tells you the real story you never knew.

00:47:36.900 I'm Tristan Hopper.

00:47:38.200 The voices you just heard are from our brand new Season 2.

00:47:42.100 We will unpack some of the pivotal moments that helped define our country,

00:47:45.820 often without a vote, usually without a plan,

00:47:48.400 and sometimes without anyone admitting what they'd done.

00:47:52.200 We'll find out how Canada became a welcoming paradise 0.70

00:47:55.400 for untold numbers of Nazi war criminals after the Second World War. 0.85

00:47:59.900 We let them build monuments to their wartime exploits

00:48:02.660 and even ended up honoring a Nazi fighter in the House of Commons.

00:48:06.720 And I'm sorry to say that none of that happened by accident.

00:48:10.460 We'll bring you the little-known story of a troubled Canadian rocket scientist

00:48:14.140 who turned to a sinister life of selling giant guns to terrible people.

00:48:19.580 And if that sounds like a spy novel, it ends like one too.

00:48:22.500 You'll hear the behind-the-scenes story of Quebec's attempted secession from Canada,

00:48:27.000 and how very close we came to a political crisis that would have made Brexit look like a picnic.

00:48:33.140 You'll hear about how the much-celebrated Charter of Rights and Freedoms turned into something its creators never wanted,

00:48:40.180 and how many of the most extravagant warnings about the document were all quickly proven true.

00:48:46.000 And you'll even hear about how authorities bungled multiple chances

00:48:49.620 to stop the deadliest terrorist attack in our country's history

00:48:52.580 and then proceeded to pretend it never happened.

00:48:56.100 These aren't dusty history lessons.

00:48:58.400 They're stories about power, ambition, madness,

00:49:00.880 and the things about Canada that a lot of people would rather ignore.

00:49:05.000 But not you!

00:49:06.360 You won't want to miss an episode.

00:49:08.300 Subscribe to make sure you get all of Season 2 starting March 2026

00:49:12.300 anywhere you get your podcasts.

00:49:15.420 Thank you.

Full Comment - May 25, 2026

Investor interest in Alberta going ‘nuclear’ over Carney’s messaging

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