Full Comment - Is Mark Carney bringing ‘mean’ back？

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00:00:30.000 We are officially into barbecue circuit season in the Canadian political landscape.

00:00:38.660 Hello, welcome to the Full Comment Podcast. I'm Brian Lilly, your host.

00:00:42.300 We are looking at the end of the parliamentary session this week.

00:00:46.560 Of course, we had competing news conferences just days ago.

00:00:50.080 Prime Minister Mark Carney explaining what he felt his government had accomplished over the last year.

00:00:55.080 And Pierre Polyev, the Conservative leader, saying what the government had done wrong.

00:01:00.000 One sticking point that's kind of important to Canada is the issue of Kuzma, our trade deal with the United States and Mexico.

00:01:08.820 Prime Minister Mark Carney saying that he didn't actually bring that up on a recent call with President Donald Trump.

00:01:15.780 Also, I mean, you spoke a lot about your call being about the Middle East.

00:01:18.780 How much did Kuzma play a role in your call?

00:01:22.020 We didn't discuss Kuzma yesterday.

00:01:25.540 Yeah, look, we also judge the possibility.

00:01:30.060 I mean, we could sign a bad deal this afternoon, right?

00:01:33.880 We could have signed a bad deal a year ago.

00:01:36.040 We're not going to sign a bad deal.

00:01:37.220 So it has to be a real deal.

00:01:39.480 And in response, Pierre Polyev saying Canada should be using what he calls positive leverage to get a deal.

00:01:45.740 What I would do is build up our leverage, and we have a lot, by committing to build a strategic reserve of the 10 most critical minerals, according to NATO, that you need to fight a war.

00:02:01.700 put those in a reserve, commit it to increasing oil production by another 2 million barrels,

00:02:07.600 and offer the Americans the prospect that those resources could be available for their purchase

00:02:15.000 in a tailored way if we get tariff-free access to their markets.

00:02:23.460 We need leverage, positive leverage.

00:02:26.780 That's what President Trump has said. It's what he's written in his own book.

00:02:29.660 We have that leverage.

00:02:31.440 The Kuzma Review is just days away, so let's start there with our panel today, the Political Hack Panel. Stuart Thompson is National Post-Parliamentary Bureau Chief, and Tasha Giridin is a National Political Columnist. They are the team behind Political Hack, Postmedia's exclusive VIP community for twice-weekly deep-dive political newsletters. Make sure you subscribe to the newsletter. You'll also get early access to John Ives and Columns, subscriber-only videos, and more.

00:03:01.440 welcome both of you how are you relieved the summer's here

00:03:06.060 you know i time for a nap brian time for a nap well as you guys know i i my perch is down at

00:03:15.160 queens park ontario's provincial legislature and i saw a piece by rob benzie in the toronto star

00:03:21.860 the other day talking about the potential replacements for doug ford and i texted benzie

00:03:27.820 And I said, oh, it's summer, I see.

00:03:31.040 Because that's the time of year that we all do those types of stories.

00:03:35.440 Ben, you had a good laugh at that.

00:03:38.000 You will see lots of silly stories over the next little while.

00:03:41.520 But Kuzma is still a serious story.

00:03:43.980 So, Stuart, let me start with you.

00:03:46.020 The fact is we're unlikely to get the deal that we want.

00:03:51.300 Canada's preferred option is the 16-year additional renewal.

00:03:56.600 What a bizarre number of years to put into a trade deal, but there it is.

00:04:01.820 Option number two, which Donald Trump has talked about, is just withdrawing from the deal,

00:04:06.040 which, if you listen to Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, is unlikely to happen.

00:04:11.440 But the most likely scenario is we're heading to, okay, we'll let the deal continue on for the next 10 years of its already agreed to like,

00:04:20.980 But we're going to hit annual renewals or annual reviews, which leads to uncertainty.

00:04:29.560 None of this is looking good.

00:04:31.740 And yet Carney didn't raise any of this with Donald Trump on the phone the other day.

00:04:36.520 What do you make of that?

00:04:39.300 Yeah, it was weird because the other thing he said was this is the kind of deal that it will come at a high level, meaning Trump and Carney will figure this out themselves.

00:04:50.340 which it kind of runs against everything else he's been saying about this because when we ask

00:04:54.400 him questions he'll talk about Dominic LeBlanc and you know all of our negotiators doing all

00:04:59.160 this hard work and then he says well actually probably it'll be me and Trump on a phone call

00:05:04.020 and sometimes you think you're really far away from a deal with Trump and then the next day you

00:05:07.900 get a deal but it is hard to see how that happens if they don't mention the topic that they're

00:05:14.040 supposed to be making a deal on um we had one of our call was about defense and the war with iran

00:05:21.220 and the upcoming nato meetings it sounded like a long call because carney talked about how many

00:05:27.580 people came in and out of the call and secretary of war pete hegg sat join and this person joined

00:05:33.000 that person joined and never did you think hey just before you go donald can i ask you about

00:05:39.980 trade talks. Yeah, it was ninth on my to do list. I forgot to get to it. But the way Carney spoke

00:05:47.600 about it, too, you're right. Seemed like a long call. And it seemed like one of those wild,

00:05:50.880 freewheeling Donald Trump calls where you're just talking about everything. So one of our

00:05:56.080 reporters asked Carney not too long ago about the prospect of the one year reviews happening with

00:06:00.740 Kuzma. The premise being that there's been a lot of uncertainty this year. And to do this every

00:06:07.500 year would be horrible, I think, for Canadians and for businesses. And Carney kind of shrugged

00:06:12.780 it off. He said, you know, if we have to do that, we'll do that. So maybe that's just his

00:06:17.240 negotiating tactics, not to look too stressed about these things. But I think Canadians are

00:06:22.600 probably a little more worried about it than Carney is right now.

00:06:25.840 You know, Tasha, we've been hearing so many of our colleagues in the media, in the punditry

00:06:31.980 world, and they go on TV and they say, oh, nothing changes on July 1st. And I was like,

00:06:36.400 what are you guys talking about?

00:06:38.380 And so I go in, I read the deal, you know,

00:06:40.800 hey, go to source material,

00:06:42.560 read what we're actually talking about,

00:06:44.520 see those three options that I laid out for you.

00:06:47.120 And I went, oh no, a lot can change on July 1st.

00:06:50.360 This is not the U2 song, nothing changes on New Year's Day.

00:06:53.260 A lot can change on July 1st.

00:06:56.440 Are we concerned enough about it?

00:06:59.460 Or is the government, as Stuart just said,

00:07:02.360 just trying to look cool as a cucumber,

00:07:04.920 shrug it off, don't worry.

00:07:06.400 I mean, there's jobs on the line, but, you know, not mine.

00:07:10.360 Yeah, I think I think that the government.

00:07:13.660 Well, let's let's rewind a little bit.

00:07:15.460 The government had been in a deep freeze for about six months with the Americans following the famous ads by Doug Ford last year with Ronald Reagan that upset Trump.

00:07:26.440 But at the same time, they also at the time had a framework agreement on aluminum and steel.

00:07:32.060 But autos was the sticking point.

00:07:33.480 Autos, they couldn't really find their way through.

00:07:35.360 and that's where Ford then decided to like blow things up and then they didn't talk for six months

00:07:40.420 and it wasn't just that they didn't talk for six months but Carney was seen as weak because he

00:07:45.900 couldn't rein in Ford around those ads and that was what I've heard from people in Washington

00:07:50.260 and that it it it set a bad tone so Carney's now trying to look like you know I'm the man I'm you

00:07:58.280 know I'm in charge it's fine it's fine he's trying to look he looks statesman like in the rest of the

00:08:03.480 world, doesn't have a problem, you know, inking deals in India and Qatar and going around. And

00:08:08.780 he's done a lot of his deals and he was talking about those at the press conference, too.

00:08:12.300 But with the Americans, he needs to regain face in a way. And we saw what happened just at the

00:08:20.120 G7. He didn't get a one-on-one with Trump. He cornered him and like, you know, was on a hot

00:08:25.400 mic at one point. Yeah, he spoke to him. But that's part of Kuzma. That is a piece of Kuzma

00:08:32.000 because that's trade, right?

00:08:33.420 The call he just had with him about NATO

00:08:35.200 and Hegseth was on that call and stuff,

00:08:37.720 you know, throwing, if Trump was rambling on

00:08:40.060 about who knows what on military issues,

00:08:42.760 I think it's probably wise that Carnage

00:08:44.280 just didn't throw in, by the way, Kuzma,

00:08:47.480 you know, fine.

00:08:49.120 But the point is that he hasn't- 0.97

00:08:51.060 Kuzma, yeah, we'll bomb it like we bombed Iran. 1.00

00:08:53.180 Sounds great. 1.00

00:08:53.660 Yeah, no, but on the trade piece,

00:08:56.520 he has to regain credibility because he's lost it.

00:09:00.020 And yes, they did delegate things to a sub level of Greer and LeBlanc. Both ambassadors also had their input. You know, Wiseman and Huckstra have been speaking on things. And the tone has been much better lately. Quite frankly, in the last few weeks, things have calmed down. Right. So I think Carney doesn't want to upset the apple cart, look stressed, whatever. He wants to look like we'll get a deal. We get a deal and we get a deal because with Trump, you know, Trump will have a deal one day and then it changes the next. And he's not wrong on that.

00:09:28.160 So the problem is, though, as you point out, there are options that kick in July 1st.

00:09:32.380 And if we think there won't be any tariffs, we're dreaming, the Americans are going to keep tariffs there.

00:09:37.620 They have said as much.

00:09:38.680 There are going to be tariffs on certain things, whether they are what they are currently or they drop.

00:09:42.760 But there are going to be some tariffs because their whole goal is to erase their trade deficit.

00:09:47.440 This is the overarching goal. And that explains a lot of their 19th century mercantilist or, you know, Gilded Age vision of like tariffs are the great equalizer. If we just tariff stuff, it means A, we'll collect money to compensate for the fact that, you know, we are being shortchanged by other economies that have lower labor costs or they have state subsidies.

00:10:10.240 So the only way to balance the playing field is up the cost of their stuff because it's artificially low. And that will then enable our manufacturers to produce more stuff because it'll be more competitive, even if it's expensive. The other stuff's more expensive. So this is their vision. So Carney is like sort of just he's bobbing along there. And so I'm not surprised that he didn't get into it with Trump on that call.

00:10:32.840 so i'm gonna go back to what you said about the ford ad and the evs because you know i don't doubt

00:10:43.000 that the ford ad irritated trump but if you remember on the tuesday of that week trump's

00:10:51.780 asked about it and he said oh i saw the ad from canada if i was canada i'd do the same ad and on

00:10:56.560 thursday he lost his mind and called off negotiations citing the ad and what happened

00:11:04.820 in between there so what i reported on at the end of october last year and what politico

00:11:10.400 recently reported on confirming a bunch of what i had um back in the fall is that what actually

00:11:18.780 set him off was related to autos and you said autos is a sticking point and this goes back to

00:11:23.820 that, is that because GM said that they were going to stop producing the Bright Drop electric

00:11:31.600 delivery vehicles that no one was buying, and even Canada Post wasn't buying, they need to

00:11:37.340 renew their fleet, and this is the perfect vehicle for short driving, lots of stops,

00:11:43.420 and Canada Post wouldn't buy it. So GM stops production of that at their Ingersoll Ontario

00:11:48.820 plant. Stellantis announces that they're going to produce the Jeep Compass in Indiana. And of

00:11:57.360 course, Canadians wanted the Brampton plant, which had never produced it, by the way. So

00:12:02.540 Carney had started the talks at the White House lunch on October 7th. They're going along well.

00:12:10.500 And Melanie Jolie, one of the most incompetent ministers I've ever seen in my life,

00:12:15.680 decides that she's going to sue both companies

00:12:18.660 and she's going to take away

00:12:20.700 the remittances on tariffs 1.00

00:12:22.540 that they were getting already,

00:12:24.000 but not on Ford

00:12:24.840 because Ford is not changing production. 0.99

00:12:27.140 And she's going to add extra tariffs to them.

00:12:30.700 It's like, so they went to the White House

00:12:33.040 and said, this is what Canada is doing to us.

00:12:36.860 And I'm told that that is what actually set Trump off.

00:12:40.340 He said, so two companies

00:12:42.940 that should be our biggest advocates

00:12:44.520 for getting rid of tariffs were being attacked.

00:12:48.060 It's one of those things that I keep pointing out. 1.00

00:12:51.280 Trump is a giant pain in our butt. 0.99

00:12:53.220 And then sometimes we're just our own worst enemies. 1.00

00:12:56.300 That was a dumb move. 1.00

00:12:58.260 Bringing in the 49,000 Chinese EVs, Stuart, 0.99

00:13:01.700 is also a dumb move. 0.99

00:13:03.820 We're trying to get a deal on autos. 0.95

00:13:06.100 As Tasha said, that was the sticking point.

00:13:07.800 And we keep doing moves to just, not just irritate,

00:13:12.040 but actually anger the Americans.

00:13:14.180 Are you our partners in the auto industry or are you not?

00:13:18.080 Because you seem to be our antagonists in the auto industry is their view.

00:13:22.700 Yeah, and this is the problem with the annual reviews is that you're going to have these little disputes that get bigger and bigger and bigger.

00:13:31.140 And then, you know, I take your point. But the other argument there, which I think is also valid, is that Canada can't be running everything it does through this filter of like tiptoeing around Donald Trump and hoping he doesn't get mad.

00:13:44.900 And I've also heard, too, from, you know, administration, people around the administration, that there is some kind of Doug Ford derangement syndrome going on there.

00:13:54.240 And it's not just the ads, it's also his appearances on TV.

00:13:56.980 going on work there is the last thing ford should be doing and he keeps you know his last appearance

00:14:03.900 i sat down to watch it live you know the his office always sends out the advisories and i was

00:14:09.740 like oh what's he gonna blow up this time um but he wasn't antagonistic he i remember talking to

00:14:17.100 republicans in washington who said oh no ford's good he just criticizes the policy not the president

00:14:21.360 and it's about a year ago he started making it personal against trump and that's when they said

00:14:26.700 they want nothing to do with Ford. And to what gain? You could always ask about that. And,

00:14:31.640 you know, for the Chinese EV deal, you know, I think Tash has been one of the most effective

00:14:36.000 and insightful critics of that deal, like in our newsletter, whenever we talk about it. But

00:14:40.480 if you're a canola farmer, you might have an entirely different view of that. And I think

00:14:45.940 that is the problem when right now is that every single thing we do in Canadian politics on an

00:14:51.240 international level is run through this filter of don't upset trump don't make a tweet happen

00:14:56.780 tomorrow that then brings more tariffs or makes the deal harder and it's just untenable my message

00:15:02.620 to canola farmers which would include uh relatives of mine is you guys should not be relying on china 0.99

00:15:09.040 because every three years they hit us with something on canola because they know it's a

00:15:14.920 a big thing it's not that they're not the biggest export market we could replace them or not rely

00:15:21.660 on them as much but uh you know it was 2013-14 2017-2021 and now last year so this is only a

00:15:32.380 one-year deal this is a one-year exemption right well as michael kovrig pointed out on tv the other

00:15:37.520 day he said china gets five years of ev evs and one year of canola we get one year of canola yeah

00:15:44.440 Well, I want to I want to address some of the points that Stuart made, because I think the Chinese piece, I don't the only silver lining, if there is such a thing in Donald Trump's presidency, is that it is forcing our country to confront some realities it should have done way before. 0.92

00:15:59.580 And one is the infiltration of China into our politics. And the EVs should be rejected on that basis alone. It's not even about, you know, yes, it will upset the Americans. And that's a reason not to do it. But it's also because we have allowed ourselves to be infiltrated and, you know, have China do elite capture on so many of our institutions and individuals and business leaders. And it goes on and on and on. 0.85

00:16:26.300 And so we have we're 20 years behind. And Washington has been complaining about that for years, by the way. This is not like just a Trump thing. Years. The Biden administration was the one who brought in the EV mandate. And we just we followed that. So we've got to get our act together on the military. It's the same thing. You know, we've been we have been riding the Americans coattails. Well, OK, because we could. And I guess as a country, it's like, well, why not?

00:16:48.860 But the point is, the assumption was always that they would always be there. And we just assumed to our peril and did not. And we've neglected our military. We've treated them, you know, poorly. Both our veterans and both our combatants. We do not. I mean, they have to buy their own boots, our soldiers. And, you know, we have the stories.

00:17:08.980 Bring your own helmet to Latvia. 0.98

00:17:10.560 It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. It's shameful. And we have not done. So we've got to step up. So finally, we are because we've got to. And it's because he's, you know, poked a stick at us. So that's that's the only good thing about him is he's forcing us to be the country we should be in the first place and make these decisions. 0.99

00:17:26.900 But with regard to Ford, yeah, too, Ford, the issue is that Carney can't rein Ford in. And the way our federalist system is set up, I mean, it's also a clash of personalities, I suppose. But the point is that Carney can't rein anyone in, right? E.B., you know, Smith, like anyone.

00:17:44.680 So he's got all these free radical atoms floating around making noise at the United States. And that does not help us in negotiations. We don't look like we're a united team. We don't look like we're, you know, we look like a collection of special interests in different places. And that's a problem. And the Americans exploit weakness. And they look at this and they go, huh.

00:18:00.980 And I think that that is one of Carney's big challenges, actually, is the domestic peace.

00:18:06.420 He's, like I said, great on the international stage, great with world leaders, you know, excellent spokesperson.

00:18:11.900 But at home, it's herding cats.

00:18:14.140 It's what McDonald did in the Constitution, and Brian Mulroney, too.

00:18:18.220 It's like getting people together.

00:18:20.140 And even Mulroney couldn't get, you know, Meech Lake and Charlottetown through.

00:18:26.040 Carney's challenge is national unity and keeping people singing from the same songbook.

00:18:30.200 vis-a-vis the U.S.,

00:18:30.980 and he has not done that.

00:18:32.540 Norman Spector would tell you

00:18:33.960 that Brian Mulroney did a great job

00:18:36.380 when it comes to herding the cats

00:18:39.740 on the free trade talks

00:18:41.260 with the Americans.

00:18:42.260 Yes, well, he was,

00:18:42.720 and his personal relationship, too,

00:18:44.100 and this is where Carney's not wrong.

00:18:45.680 It's a high-level thing.

00:18:46.940 It's like if you,

00:18:48.120 Trump does business with people he likes.

00:18:50.740 That was the message

00:18:51.700 that Howard Lutnick delivered last year

00:18:54.280 at a conference I was at

00:18:55.960 in Toronto, the Eurasia Forum,

00:18:57.940 and he said Trump does deals

00:18:59.500 with people he likes.

00:19:00.360 If he doesn't like you,

00:19:00.860 he's not going to do a deal with you.

00:19:01.840 So that's where Carney's not wrong.

00:19:03.620 It's like a personality thing.

00:19:05.040 And, you know, Mulroney and Reagan

00:19:07.540 was the same thing.

00:19:08.820 I think Trump likes Carney.

00:19:10.380 Appears to.

00:19:11.420 I hope he does,

00:19:12.220 because otherwise we're not going to get a deal by him.

00:19:15.060 Certainly more than Trudeau.

00:19:16.660 You mentioned the military.

00:19:18.780 Yeah, he likes everyone better than Trudeau.

00:19:23.080 You mentioned the military

00:19:25.260 and that we're being grownups on that.

00:19:28.220 I did hear Avi Lewis on TV the other day, the newly minted NDP leader, talking like he was a spokesperson for Project Plowshares and calling for us to stop the militarization of Canadian society.

00:19:41.720 But we'll talk about Avi mania and whether you're catching it in a minute.

00:19:45.480 But let's talk about whether politicians are mean.

00:19:51.180 When Justin Trudeau was still in and people were just fed up with him, voters parked their votes with Pierre Polyev.

00:19:59.900 And then Mark Carney came in and all I kept hearing was, well, I'm going to Carney because Polyev's mean.

00:20:05.140 I don't like him.

00:20:06.440 Now we're hearing stories that Mark Carney is mean.

00:20:10.000 He yells at people.

00:20:11.720 He doesn't listen to caucus members.

00:20:13.660 he's dismissive of staff

00:20:15.780 and of course we all know how he treats

00:20:17.740 reporters in particular

00:20:19.080 women reporters

00:20:20.960 so is Canadian politics

00:20:24.160 all about mean

00:20:25.360 is it bad to be mean in Canadian politics

00:20:27.700 because I believe this 0.78

00:20:29.960 I think Althea Raj was the first one

00:20:32.000 at the Star was the first one to write about

00:20:33.960 how mean Carney is to his caucus

00:20:35.860 and his cabinet and I thought

00:20:37.860 alright well his polling numbers

00:20:40.020 are going to go up 5%

00:20:41.300 what's your take on being mean in politics this is like if you were running one of those glamorous

00:20:47.980 magazines you would do is mean back and there's carny bringing mean back um i so i think of this

00:20:55.940 a couple of ways one i think of this in terms of my own work life where i've had bosses i won't

00:21:01.400 name any names who were sometimes seen as especially early in my career bosses who were seen as mean

00:21:07.600 or yelly or gruff. And I actually really loved them because they told me exactly what they

00:21:14.160 thought and there was no BS and you just knew exactly where you stood. But there were people

00:21:20.060 who, you know, they weren't lying. They were just interpreting it differently than I did.

00:21:24.680 They'd hated that and thought that it was, you know, borderline abusive. And I think that's

00:21:30.060 exactly what's going on in the liberal caucus, because if you talk to some liberal MPs, they'll

00:21:33.780 say, this is great. In caucus meetings, you say something and Carney actually engages with what

00:21:40.380 you said and he will actually talk to you. And sometimes he will crap on your idea, but he's

00:21:46.460 engaging with it. Um, so I, the difference between him and Trudeau is that Trudeau would sort of

00:21:51.800 politely listen and just nod his head and then not say anything and move on to the next person.

00:21:55.880 Or scroll through Instagram. Oh yeah, look at his, look at the gram. Um, so yeah, I think

00:22:01.540 And this is a similar thing with Pierre Paliyev, too, where, you know, some people see him as gruff or mean or he doesn't respond to their ideas.

00:22:09.920 And some people have a totally different perspective.

00:22:12.140 And I think in politics where it matters is how do voters perceive you and is that coming through?

00:22:19.280 And I think for Carney, this would become a problem if I think arrogance is probably the thing that will get him down the road if something does get him, where voters start to think this guy thinks he knows everything.

00:22:31.540 This is like the if we're if we want something as a populace, he's not going to listen to us.

00:22:37.380 He thinks he knows best. So if liberal MPs are an early indicator of that as a political problem, then, yeah.

00:22:43.340 But I think so far, Canadians don't feel that way. 0.98

00:22:45.860 Mark Carney, arrogant liberals, arrogant. I don't know what you're talking about. 0.98

00:22:49.380 I've never met an arrogant politician.

00:22:53.140 Tasha, you know, to Stuart's point about different types of bosses, I've worked with bosses who can be gruff, who can yell, who can be demanding.

00:23:01.540 and those are okay that's different than abusive i mean i remember one guy who used to try and rally

00:23:08.820 the newsroom at about 4 30 in the afternoon on a friday by telling us all we'd be fired next week

00:23:14.860 if we didn't improve just as everyone's heading home i mean that's that's not a good way to manage

00:23:20.640 people what's your take on on carny um you know i i sometimes bristle at these i've got a mean

00:23:29.060 boss stories because i think well the person just doesn't want to perform so i i'm cutting

00:23:34.400 carny slack on this mean thing you harper yelled he was famous yelled i think once he threw a chair

00:23:41.480 uh martin yelled uh people yell christian tried to strangle a protester like a b there's mean in

00:23:48.360 all of us right when when you get pushed to the wall or you don't get your way or you're like

00:23:51.980 That protester, like I did.

00:23:53.900 I did you?

00:23:54.520 You would do the same thing.

00:23:57.440 Well, that's my point, all right?

00:23:59.340 I think Cardi's issue is you got to perform, you got to do your job, or else you're in trouble, right?

00:24:06.040 Which is, it's not mean.

00:24:07.760 It's a performance expectation that a lot of people weren't used to.

00:24:10.480 Trudeau, to Stuart's point, nod and smile, nod and smile.

00:24:14.420 Well, Trudeau didn't have that same expectation.

00:24:17.140 He just expected syncophancy, if I'm pronouncing it right.

00:24:20.300 expected a bunch of sycophants, like they loved him. But this is the point I actually want to get

00:24:24.260 to. Cardi can get away with being as mean as he wants, as long as he's popular. And so did Trudeau,

00:24:29.840 right? If you're popular, and so did Polyev. When did people start griping Polyev? Oh, gee,

00:24:34.740 when his poll numbers dropped, right? Lost the election, lost his seat. Now his numbers are in

00:24:40.140 the tank. People are like, we don't like your you're mean, you were mean to me last election,

00:24:46.340 you were mean, and now I'm going to let you have it for that. I shut up at the time because, well,

00:24:50.740 everyone, you know, voters liked you. So what am I going to say? You get away with a lot if you're

00:24:55.740 popular. So Carney's issue is if his stock drops and voters turn against him, then the meanness

00:25:02.700 will matter because he doesn't have the team hanging together. Some politicians are really

00:25:06.680 good at doing the hanging together. Mulroney was a master at it, right? Even when his poll numbers

00:25:11.320 dropped he was at like what seven percent i think before he left like it was crazy low um but his

00:25:17.180 team loved him and they still people still speak of those days you know he's he's he's no longer

00:25:21.760 with us but people remember and they were loyal there was a loyalty factor like you dance with

00:25:27.060 the woman with the lady that brung ya or something i'm i think it was another yeah right but that's

00:25:33.980 how he was right so he was that kind of politician but since then we've had a lot of angry mean 0.59

00:25:38.760 yelly people. And it works as long as you're winning. And then people just they just go along 0.88

00:25:43.600 because they're like, OK, what am I going to do? That's what surprises me about this. And I'd like

00:25:47.020 a quick comment from both of you on this. Carney is still popular. His polling numbers are high.

00:25:53.180 And that's why it surprised me that this leaks out to the Star and then other media outlets follow

00:25:57.840 up on it. And they're getting liberal MPs talking and going, oh, yeah, he's really mean. On camera,

00:26:03.260 they're all oh no he's wonderful when the tv guys get you he's wonderful when you're talking to a

00:26:10.000 ink-stained wretch like the three of us um it's uh whoa man he can be tough he can be bitter

00:26:17.380 is that surprising given that he's so popular i don't know maybe that maybe that it is a bit

00:26:22.320 bizarre i agree um but maybe they're trying to to effect change i don't know i mean i think i think

00:26:27.320 they're still unhappy like even when they're smiling at you it's like yeah it's your point

00:26:30.860 They didn't say anything. But now, yeah, I don't know. Maybe maybe Althea gave them like a cookie or something.

00:26:35.540 There is like a small core and I don't think I know how big it is or how small it is.

00:26:42.800 But there is a group of liberals who are freaked out by the direction of the government.

00:26:47.840 And these were Trudeau people. And I don't think it's hard to imagine it turning into some kind of internal problem for Mark Carney anytime in the near future anyways.

00:26:58.500 But it's just people who are like Stephen Guilbeau, but don't have the pension, you know, in the bag to quit.

00:27:05.220 And they're just a little bit disaffected.

00:27:08.340 I didn't notice that Guilbeau got his pension last October.

00:27:11.900 I didn't notice that.

00:27:13.320 We've got to take a quick break.

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00:27:46.500 Back in moments.

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00:29:59.440 Mark Carney is going to ask you for donations to rebuild 24 Sussex Drive, the prime minister's residence.

00:30:05.420 No, you did not hear that incorrectly.

00:30:07.800 In fact, he made the announcement on Friday.

00:30:09.840 Today, we're launching a national design and build competition to restore 24 Sussex Drive.

00:30:16.520 to become, once again, a secure, accessible, and sustainable official residence

00:30:22.580 and a working venue for Canada's future prime ministers.

00:30:27.280 When I first heard about this, guys, I thought, that has to be a joke.

00:30:30.780 And, you know, the person that told me was looking at X,

00:30:35.300 and I said, that's not true.

00:30:37.060 And then I go online and I look, and it's an official leak to Ashley Burke at CBC.

00:30:42.360 Not a knock against her.

00:30:43.460 We all get official leaks from time to time.

00:30:45.840 But I was like, wow, that's detailed.

00:30:48.160 This is crazy.

00:30:49.760 But then again, Pierre Trudeau did put in the pool

00:30:52.660 using liberal donor money at 24 Sussex Drive

00:30:55.400 back in the 70s.

00:30:56.740 What do you make of this idea?

00:30:58.220 I am all in favor.

00:30:59.360 We should have an absolutely beautiful

00:31:01.100 official residence for the PM.

00:31:03.360 I have no problem with taxpayer money paying for it.

00:31:08.620 But I'm wondering how many people in this country

00:31:12.080 that will defend Carney saying,

00:31:13.900 let's do this via fundraising,

00:31:15.180 have been critical of Donald Trump building the ballroom on the east wing of the White House

00:31:21.240 using donor money. Is is there a problem here, Tasha? I don't think that's the same thing at

00:31:26.980 all. I think it's not the same. It's not the same. He's not he's not building a monument to himself

00:31:32.500 because that's what the ballroom is, quite frankly. It's like the arch. It's like it's not

00:31:37.560 the same. This is 24 Sussex is a historic residence. It was not always the residence

00:31:42.560 of prime ministers. We know that. But in our lifetimes, it's been the residents of prime

00:31:46.620 ministers. And I think it is, you know, it fell into decay. And it was it was embarrassing. And

00:31:52.960 the reason it did is nobody wanted to spend money on it because of the public outcry every time you

00:31:56.580 did. I mean, Mila Mulroney got outcry for like changing the drapes, you know, so it it just it

00:32:03.480 crumbled away. And it's it's a sort of sad statement. And I think symbolism, it's funny

00:32:08.120 because we are in an age of symbolism and, you know, Trump wants to build new stuff as symbols

00:32:12.600 of himself to remember him by, whereas Carney wants to restore something previous. But both

00:32:18.360 are symbolic. And I think, look, let's have a giant candidate concert with a fundraising concert

00:32:23.500 with all our greatest artists and raise money. Like, why not? I think that as long as the public

00:32:28.780 doesn't feel it's being soaked for this thing or if they're voluntarily giving money to it,

00:32:32.320 or if you can get big philanthropists to pony up and save it as, you know, an architectural and a

00:32:37.460 symbolic place where Canadian prime ministers can actually host events and host world leaders in

00:32:41.220 style. Nothing wrong with that. We should have a place. We don't need a ballroom, but we do need a

00:32:45.660 house. I'm just not sure about the whole idea of donor money, Stuart. Taxpayer money, I'm 100%

00:32:56.460 against rebuilding this. We should have a place. The idea of donors, you could get into sticky

00:33:04.380 situations there. I like Tasha's idea of like live aid for 24 Sussex with Bob Geldof.

00:33:12.600 I could get behind that. But I agree. Like what is more embarrassing, a rundown,

00:33:18.340 rat infested prime minister's residence or a GoFundMe to restore it? It's both of those things

00:33:25.060 are a little disappointing if you're a Canadian, I think. But it is reminiscent of I was reading

00:33:31.320 a Pierre Trudeau biography and I was surprised to learn that he put a pool into 24 Sussex and

00:33:37.080 that was funded by sort of a shady donor scheme too. He called Keith Davies, his bag man in the

00:33:43.960 Senate, the guy that was the rainmaker for the liberals in those days. And the reason he wanted

00:33:50.560 the pool at 24 Sussex is he liked swimming. That was his exercise. He liked swimming and he would

00:33:56.660 go to different pools quite often the pool at the chateau laurier and the rcmp would have to clear

00:34:02.720 everyone out so the prime minister could swim and he didn't like that it annoyed him and so he just

00:34:09.680 called up davy said i want a pool get me money for a pool nobody knows who paid for it you can

00:34:16.300 guess some of them but nobody knows and just suddenly uh i believe the figure back in mid

00:34:21.360 70s was $200,000, which would be about $850,000 now. And that's the pool went in with liberal

00:34:29.820 donor money. This isn't the same. And by the time this is done, Mark Carney's likely not going to

00:34:35.980 be prime minister. So I'm not saying he's enriching himself, but this just seems odd.

00:34:44.200 I so I'm not totally we we will have to get more details on this, of course, but we'll have to see how this is designed, because if it's Canadians putting in 10 bucks a pop, people who really care about this doing it and building up that fund, great.

00:34:58.540 But if this is like liberal-friendly foundations or rich people doing it, and you can imagine that if you are some rich developer, somebody who has an interest, and you are ponying up money for the prime minister's pet project, whether he lives in it or not, it's still a legacy project for Carney, that could be seen as a conflict.

00:35:21.160 You're looking to do something nice for the prime minister, and maybe you're hoping to get something in return.

00:35:25.560 So I will wait to see the details of how this fund works.

00:35:30.140 But I would definitely keep your radar up for something like that, where things can get sketchy.

00:35:35.700 They can have a Bombardier wing.

00:35:41.240 Everyone can claim there to be plaques all over the house.

00:35:45.300 Look, I take Stewart's point.

00:35:47.300 I think it's true.

00:35:47.940 But I do think that engaging the public in supporting this project is key to actually doing it. And involuntary contributions through tax dollars will be slammed immediately. Asking for voluntary contributions, I think people will get on board. Maybe kids will bring their penny jars to school and say, look, I'm going to give this. Do we still have pennies? I don't even know. But to donations or whatnot. I think that's actually creative. I think that's a good idea.

00:36:14.160 we'll have the atkins realis wing uh because that's what snc lavalin is called now and of

00:36:20.420 course they'll get the contract to build it uh it's like it is sad that we don't have an official

00:36:27.360 residency so yeah i don't know if you guys have have been there i've been there several times um

00:36:34.460 it was built in the 1860s and before louis saint laurent who was the first prime minister that

00:36:40.740 moved in, got there. The federal government expropriated the building from the family that

00:36:47.380 owned it and said, we're going to take this. And the historic part, the reason that, you know,

00:36:54.100 we should just gut it on the inside, I hope they keep the exterior, is that in the early 50s,

00:37:00.480 they took out everything. They took it down to stud. So all the Victorian accoutrements that

00:37:06.220 were in there were just ripped out because, like, oh, who needs this old stuff? And then they made

00:37:11.300 it very 1950s, and then it stayed that way because, as you said, Mila Mulroney got harangued for

00:37:17.840 changing the drapes. We are too cheap in this country in terms of how we treat politicians.

00:37:24.420 We believe there should be none of them, but they should do everything. They should get paid nothing,

00:37:28.160 and like Doug Ford, you should sit and coach and wait for two hours for your flight at the airport

00:37:34.800 instead of, you know, being efficient.

00:37:39.060 He couldn't even land those planes,

00:37:40.900 90% of the airports in Ontario.

00:37:43.740 It's just nuts how we are.

00:37:45.660 So let's talk about Pierre Polyev.

00:37:47.900 He's headed off to the barbecue circuit.

00:37:51.980 My advice to him would be that

00:37:55.760 he should stop doing press conferences all the time.

00:37:59.880 He should stop doing videos with kettlebells.

00:38:02.500 he should just be quiet and go on a listening tour look i i get it he's got to go to stampede

00:38:09.920 next week he'll probably ride his horse in the parade like he did last year like he has done

00:38:15.380 often uh but after stampede just go to ground go on a listening tour god gave us two ears and one

00:38:23.300 mouth so you should you know listen twice as much as you speak talk to the eda presidents talk to

00:38:29.300 big donors, talk to people who used to support you, but then voted for Carney and find out

00:38:34.160 what to do and then come back in the fall. But make people miss you is kind of what I'm saying.

00:38:42.620 Because unless he does something like that, I'm not sure how continuing to do what he

00:38:46.700 is doing is going to turn things around. What are your thoughts on what Polyev should do to 0.53

00:38:53.100 try and turn things around or if he even can? Yeah, I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago

00:38:57.840 And I spoke to a couple of strategists who said exactly what you said, Brian, which is that there's really nothing for Polyev in this environment.

00:39:07.060 Mark Carney is in a world where he's kind of defying the laws of political gravity.

00:39:11.840 His approval numbers are sky high.

00:39:14.240 The liberals are at 50 percent in the polls, according to the post-media legate polls we've been doing.

00:39:19.180 And everybody else has them around that area, at least 10 points out of the conservatives.

00:39:24.360 And as long as Mark Carney is dealing with Donald Trump, there's very little avenue for

00:39:29.620 Polyev to get back on that. So the trouble for Polyev is that his key issue, which has always

00:39:36.820 been affordability, is actually owned by the liberals right now. Carney is actually pulling

00:39:40.160 better on that issue than a conservative party. And if you talk to any conservative strategist

00:39:45.300 in the world, they'll tell you that is a recipe for an election loss for them. If they're not

00:39:49.220 winning on that issue. They're basically doomed. I think for Polyev, the only danger is, is that

00:39:55.420 if the numbers slip too low, then he has MPs that are going to start to worry about their seats.

00:40:01.240 And that is the real way that you encourage a revolt against your leadership is you start to

00:40:06.520 put people's careers under threat. Tasha? Yeah, I think Polyev's problem is that

00:40:12.380 Carney had stolen all the oxygen in the room and Polyev is reduced to saying kind of the same

00:40:18.420 things over and over again. He's tried to go off on different, you know, different tangents. He went

00:40:22.720 on his woke tangent this week as well, going on about, you know, sort of the woke-ism and

00:40:31.060 woke decisions and this kind of thing. And I think he's looking for, he's looking to shore up that

00:40:37.000 base that responds to that sort of language. But I think that it's not going to win him new friends.

00:40:43.620 And I think the problem is he has to win new friends. But can he in this environment get

00:40:47.600 people back who've left the conservatives for Carnegie because they think, like the boomers, 0.65

00:40:51.120 voters in particular, who think, oh, he's the guy to handle this. Look at him. He's trotting 0.86

00:40:55.660 around in G7 and he looks good. And, you know, no one can, Trump whisper, he's doing the best

00:41:02.080 anyone could. Would Polyev do a better job? I think that's the question Polyev can answer.

00:41:07.240 Would Polyev do a better job with all this stuff? It's hard to see how. Like for Trump,

00:41:11.380 I don't see how he would do a better job with Trump. I don't know. Anyone can really do a good

00:41:15.040 job with trump but i think um i think that going to ground um going to ground and being humble

00:41:22.620 about it because i think that you were talking about the arrogance carney has and pauliev has

00:41:26.440 arrogance too and it comes out is that you know his hectoring lecturing kind of thing yeah no i

00:41:32.120 think people that stand up and say you should vote for me and let me lead the country are

00:41:37.980 no they're never the way he says it it's the way he says it and i think that he's it's it's um

00:41:43.080 And it's kind of like I said, it's like a broken record. And I think Polyev's great hope, great, and we're going to get to him. The great savior for Polyev could be Avi Lewis. Polyev is to let Avi Lewis rise like a floating balloon, right? And that will depress liberal numbers. And then Polyev can maybe find a way in.

00:42:00.620 But I agree with you being quiet until that happens, taking a time to meet people one on one, reassure them that he is not a jerk who's going to like, you know, yell at them like, oh, Carney, like he's going to be the listening leader, the unifier of the party, blah, blah, that sort of stuff. 0.75

00:42:16.780 He think he should do that. I agree. But he won't get that opening, I think, until there's a game change with the NDP. And that could come. We'll see. 0.90

00:42:24.740 So my discussions with caucus members, Stuart, is that, and you can see it in what they're doing, is that they're all in their own rowboat and they're all going in different directions and sometimes bumping into each other.

00:42:40.400 you guys were writing on Bill C-22 about how they couldn't come up with a position because

00:42:46.780 there's different factions within the party there's the libertarian leaning folks that say

00:42:52.760 oh no no no you can't you can't give the cops anything and then you've got the let's back the

00:42:57.660 cops faction that says give the cops everything yeah this is the trouble for them too is there's

00:43:04.120 there's something of a realignment happening in Canadian politics that's affecting the

00:43:07.980 conservatives. And the dynamic that Tasha laid out there is still almost completely true, which is

00:43:14.400 that if the NDP does well, it's better for the conservatives. They split the vote with the

00:43:18.980 liberals. But there is something increasingly happening, which is that the NDP is taking votes

00:43:23.520 from the conservatives and vice versa, the sort of working class vote. And I spoke to the pollster

00:43:29.000 David Coletto about this, and I hadn't fully internalized how difficult this is for Polyev

00:43:35.060 until Coletta laid it out for me,

00:43:36.540 which is that Polyev has to take

00:43:38.340 from both the Liberals and the NDP now,

00:43:41.360 which is strange,

00:43:42.780 or he has to generate new voters

00:43:44.420 from somewhere, probably on the far right,

00:43:47.080 but more likely from those two parties.

00:43:49.800 But the people who are voting Liberal

00:43:51.320 are generally older and they want stability

00:43:53.500 and they want the status quo.

00:43:55.340 And the NDP voters that the Conservatives

00:43:57.700 are sharing with Abby Lewis

00:43:59.440 are people who are disaffected

00:44:01.640 with the whole system

00:44:02.600 and they want to blow it up.

00:44:03.960 And Polyev now has to somehow appeal to both those factions of people. And I can't imagine even how you do that. You put that to a strategist. I don't think they have great ideas.

00:44:13.520 I think that I haven't seen those that that polling and I will look at it. But the voters, the NDP that the conservatives recording the NDP had were union voters. Right. They were not the environmental hard left leap manifesto types that Avi Lewis appeals to. Right. He wrote the leap manifesto. He is he definitely you know, he's like Mr. Plowshares, leave the oil in the ground, like the whole bit. Right. Union voters are not down with that.

00:44:40.760 they want those jobs, getting the oil out of the ground. He's not appealing to the union

00:44:47.340 syndicaliste vote, as you would say in Quebec. Paulievre was appealing to the union vote on

00:44:53.460 the basis of, you know, good jobs, good workers, good, good, you know, solid, solid, the welder

00:44:59.240 and the, you know, the tradesperson, all this stuff. So I think that to me, the NDP where Avi

00:45:05.500 would take it is the sort of, yes, there's the bit of a socialist mom-dommie, you know,

00:45:09.980 workers, the world unite kind of thing, but it's more the environmental, like where Carney is

00:45:15.520 weak because Carney has abandoned all those people. Gilbo quit. There's people who are

00:45:20.800 disgruntled in the caucus. They signed that letter, you know, it's like they wouldn't say

00:45:24.000 who they were. They were unhappy with the environmental direction with Alberta and the

00:45:28.260 MOU. So there's definitely an opening for that. And in Quebec too, interestingly enough, I mean,

00:45:34.580 Quebec and BC are both very environmentally conscious provinces. So the NDP, look, they have

00:45:39.000 the by-election that's coming up where Bull Reese's seat is up for grabs, right? I don't think the NDP

00:45:44.700 is going to hold it, but I'm curious to see how much they'll get in that race, right? Or is the

00:45:48.940 Bloc Québécois going to win that by-election? Do the liberals have a chance there? It's like

00:45:54.220 it's anyone's game because there are people who are now unhappy with this government in a very

00:45:59.620 specific space. If the NDP can capture that space, then their numbers go up, but that won't hurt the

00:46:04.700 conservatives. If they still fight over the union voters, you know, if the NDP steal them back,

00:46:09.220 yeah. But I don't necessarily see that happening with Lewis. He's pretty radical, and I don't

00:46:12.760 think that's his game. I would imagine that the conservatives would hold some of the union vote,

00:46:19.760 but I can see some of it going over to Carney if he gets things done. But so far, he's still just

00:46:27.240 promising and not delivering, but it's not hurting him. And we go back to the quote that he gave

00:46:33.400 just after the election when it was one of your reporters, Stuart, who asked him,

00:46:38.120 how will voters hold you to account? And he said, oh, you'll hold me to account by the price at the

00:46:42.320 grocery stores. And Canada still has the top food inflation in the G7 month after month after month.

00:46:49.180 And people are like, well, yeah, it's not his fault. It's Trump's. And so he's Teflon still

00:46:56.940 at the moment. So not delivering doesn't seem to be hurting them.

00:47:02.240 Yeah, it is remarkable how much benefit of the doubt voters are giving Mark Carney right now.

00:47:07.620 And if you're a conservative, it's frustrating because, as we said before, there's not much you

00:47:12.640 can do. It's an environment where whatever you say just goes into the wind and gets mostly ignored.

00:47:18.360 But if there were anything to take as a silver lining from that, it's that it has to end.

00:47:24.460 At some point, you know, we saw just at the end of the sitting, this condo bailout policy that the liberals rolled out that the rollout of that and the policy of that felt like late Trudeau type policymaking, because not only was it a dumb policy, but it was rolled out really, really, really poorly.

00:47:44.900 And you should check the stories from when that came out.

00:47:48.640 Almost every media outlet has a correction on that story.

00:47:51.280 And if one media outlet has a correction, then they screwed up.

00:47:54.820 But if we all do, then the government really screwed it up because they got details wrong and they didn't tell us everything about it right away.

00:48:02.780 So you want to laugh on that point?

00:48:04.440 Stuart, I wrote a column a year ago saying they should actually do what they're doing.

00:48:09.460 Seriously, you can dig it up.

00:48:11.220 I wrote, I said, why are you building new houses when there is existing stuff that can't be sold?

00:48:16.920 If you want to just stick people in spaces and give them temporary homes, it's out there.

00:48:22.000 If you build more, you're just going to depress prices further. 1.00

00:48:24.340 That is stupid. 0.99

00:48:25.200 And no one's going to build more because there's no incentive because you can't sell anything. 1.00

00:48:28.920 So existing stock, scoop it up at bargain prices and sell it to other people and make some money.

00:48:34.400 Literally, you can find it online.

00:48:36.280 So I was laughing really hard when I saw that announcement.

00:48:39.000 Well, never underestimate government's ability to take a good idea and screw it up royally.

00:48:43.700 Carney admitted that they rolled it out badly.

00:48:46.100 So Gregor Robertson was in Toronto last week with Premier Ford announcing a different thing.

00:48:52.920 They're just doing – they're not doing the condo bailout in Ontario.

00:48:56.720 They're just doing the development charge thing, which everyone confused with the price of the condos in B.C.

00:49:02.140 I think that's the correction you're talking about, the $3.2 billion.

00:49:05.200 um and so gregor robertson had to correct the record and then a couple days later mark carney

00:49:10.540 has to correct the record and admit that they're not rolling it out properly and he says but it's

00:49:16.500 going to be rent to buy that's what we're going to do with this and then the bc government comes

00:49:21.380 out and says no we're just going to be landlords so i mean they can't get this straight at all this

00:49:27.520 you know i disagree with the policy you think it's good tasha we'll all agree that it's horrible

00:49:33.880 rollout because no one knows what they're doing. But the concept was, you know, don't don't don't

00:49:40.000 put more stock in the market when the market's already depressed. As an investor, that's stupid. 1.00

00:49:44.540 Can I quickly give you my explanation for this, Brian, which is purely based on speculation. But 0.99

00:49:49.820 that night that they rolled out the policy, Carney had flown to B.C. for the soccer game.

00:49:55.700 And I do wonder if maybe he was like, well, I'm going to B.C. for the soccer game and you guys

00:49:59.740 they're not going to tell me no. But we may as well roll something out while we're there. And

00:50:03.920 that's what happens when you do it off the side of your desk.

00:50:07.840 Let's ask about Avimania, because Stuart, you mentioned the Leger poll that they do for Post

00:50:13.600 Media. That latest poll from Leger out just a few days ago has the Liberals at 48 nationally,

00:50:19.900 the Conservatives at 34, and the NDP at six. Big problem for the Conservatives in the last

00:50:26.960 election was that here in Ontario, sure, here, Paulieff and the Conservatives got 41% of the

00:50:32.480 vote, but the NDP went to 4.9% and the Liberals were at almost 50 and took the vast majority of

00:50:41.120 seats. 6% nationally isn't exactly Avi mania. Nanos has the NDP at 11, Abacus at nine, Liaison

00:50:50.180 at 14 main street at 12 uh is avi lewis turning things around or is he doing what i told you guys

00:50:59.740 months ago he would do which is bring audrey mclaughlin energy to the ndp once again

00:51:05.160 i don't know i i think um avi is avi i've known avi a long time um you know full disclosure i

00:51:14.360 I produced his first show when he was at CBC, like in 1997, 98. And he is very, he hasn't changed his stripes in terms of being very, very hard left. And he comes by that, by his family, as we all know, his father, his grandfather. So it's like dyed in the wool socialism here.

00:51:35.260 But he's been very heavy on the environmental piece, like I mentioned earlier, in the last decade. And that is the Achilles heel of Carney, if you will, if you want to strip away voters because of what's happening with Alberta, with the pipeline, and with the major projects in general. I think, you know, the approval process, let's speed it up.

00:51:52.300 um so i think that is the best opening now is that gonna is that gonna soar his popularity to

00:51:58.840 like 20 percent where the ndp needs to be if the conservatives are gonna um they're gonna form

00:52:04.280 government right that's ideally around that sort of late high teens if that's happening then it's

00:52:08.420 much easier for the conservatives to get in i don't know i mean it really i think it depends

00:52:12.840 on how things go with carney too and how it goes with this you know we'll see with the alberta

00:52:17.100 referendum with the mou with the approval which is slated for the same time for the pipeline in

00:52:21.500 October, the major projects office has to make a decision. I think all that stuff may start to

00:52:27.480 come to a head. The election is three years away. So really, at this point, you know, what Avi is

00:52:32.140 today doesn't really matter for that. It's where he can go. So we'll see where he can go.

00:52:37.200 Stuart? Yeah, I think Tash is right that it's probably the environment and maybe some kind of,

00:52:44.680 you know, blow it all up affordability so bad sentiment from young voters that Avi can focus on.

00:52:50.620 I personally can't wait for those government grocery stores.

00:52:55.420 Just as a journalistic enterprise to go and see them and write a story about it, right?

00:52:59.420 But I would point to recent polling on climate change.

00:53:05.960 And it's a funny issue because Canadians will tell you they care a lot about climate change.

00:53:11.360 They're very concerned.

00:53:13.000 But then you get them to rank those issues and it's like 13th on their priority list.

00:53:17.760 And I do think that sometimes you have to look at these latent issues, the ones that are kind of under the surface and not really a part of our politics, and just imagine what it would be like if that was a big issue, because it would definitely benefit Abby Lewis.

00:53:33.200 The last latent issue that we had that rose to prominence was immigration.

00:53:37.880 And, you know, for 15 years, political scientists would say people have thoughts about immigration, but they don't care that much about the issue itself.

00:53:46.740 At some point, they might care about climate change in the same way.

00:53:49.860 It might be a big wildfire or some natural disaster or some other event.

00:53:54.860 But I think that's what Abby Lewis has to be looking at is, sure, Mark Carney is disaffecting environmental voters.

00:54:02.100 but they care more about affordability

00:54:04.560 in Donald Trump right now.

00:54:06.500 Daryl Bricker, the head of polling for Ipsos,

00:54:09.440 told me years ago,

00:54:11.180 the environment and climate change

00:54:14.080 becomes the number one issue

00:54:15.300 when everything else is going really well.

00:54:17.860 And it falls off a cliff

00:54:19.800 as soon as people are worried about their jobs,

00:54:22.620 the economy, housing affordability, et cetera.

00:54:27.080 So I'll ask you one final question.

00:54:29.740 and, Tasha, you said the election's three years away.

00:54:34.080 And that's generally my thinking.

00:54:36.680 But, handicap this.

00:54:40.520 Does Carney go early while Donald Trump is still in office

00:54:44.120 to secure another majority, an electoral majority,

00:54:48.560 instead of a manufactured one?

00:54:50.140 Does he run against Donald Trump one last time?

00:54:54.200 Good point. I think he'd be smart, too.

00:54:56.500 I mean, it also depends what's happened by then.

00:54:58.600 Does he have a deal? Are we in this year over year Kuzma renegotiation situation? You know, has what else has Trump done? Is there another war somewhere already started? Who knows? Like, it's impossible to really predict what Trump will do, obviously. And in consequence, you know, running against Trump sounds is fantastic right now. I agree. Who knows? It probably would be a wise thing, though, I think, to have him as the foil.

00:55:24.740 You know, unless Trump, you know, has a heart attack, dies and J.D. Vance is there.

00:55:28.960 But I guess then it's the same length of mandate, so it wouldn't matter. Right.

00:55:31.820 But, you know, people that Canadians don't like, American leader, people that Canadians don't like, put that person there and run against them.

00:55:40.700 I mean, Doug Ford won his election as well in Ontario running against Trump, you know, and ignoring his actual opponents.

00:55:48.920 So I think Carney probably would be wise to follow that advice. Yeah.

00:55:52.260 Yeah, Ford's still doing that. And the latest Apex poll shows he would get a majority again.

00:55:57.480 He has no one right now. There's literally no leader for the liberals.

00:56:00.480 I mean, the official opposition does have a leader, but nobody knows who she is.

00:56:05.400 And just for the record, her name is Merritt Stiles. Stuart, your thoughts.

00:56:10.760 Does Carney go early to use Trump as the boogeyman?

00:56:14.540 yeah i i think strategically it's probably smart um but i do you know i think reporters are still

00:56:22.300 wrapping their heads around mark harney um like what is he as a person and what are his tendencies

00:56:26.880 the one thing i do know for sure about him and i wrote about this during the campaign is that he

00:56:31.260 hates the campaign and it's just not what he wants to be doing i watched him try to use a table saw

00:56:38.260 and it went very poorly

00:56:39.900 and he just

00:56:41.060 he just can't

00:56:43.040 get himself into that

00:56:44.060 and he's actually

00:56:44.640 pretty good at like

00:56:45.280 working a room

00:56:46.080 but it's the

00:56:46.760 it's the play acting

00:56:47.840 I think that he doesn't like

00:56:48.860 and the

00:56:49.380 I think he sees it as

00:56:50.460 wasted time

00:56:51.480 he could be governing

00:56:52.280 beneath him Stuart

00:56:53.520 to use that table saw

00:56:54.460 come on

00:56:55.120 I was there with Stuart

00:56:56.480 to watch that awkward

00:56:57.420 that's right

00:56:58.140 you were there that day

00:56:58.960 it was very awkward

00:57:01.140 he did

00:57:01.900 in fairness

00:57:02.380 he did better

00:57:03.040 than people expected

00:57:03.840 I thought he'd be

00:57:05.040 you know

00:57:05.840 he did better on the campaign

00:57:06.980 and he grinned and bare it

00:57:08.240 So Trudeau loved campaigning.

00:57:13.580 Polyev loves campaigning.

00:57:15.640 Carney hates it.

00:57:17.060 But maybe he goes early.

00:57:19.060 All right.

00:57:19.580 We'll leave it there, guys.

00:57:20.720 That's been a great talk.

00:57:21.720 Make sure you get your merch at postmedia.store, of course.

00:57:24.760 We'll talk again soon.

00:57:26.580 Full comment is a Postmedia podcast.

00:57:28.820 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.

00:57:30.140 This episode was produced by Andre Proulx.

00:57:32.320 Theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:57:33.960 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

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Full Comment - June 29, 2026

Is Mark Carney bringing ‘mean’ back？

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