Full Comment - September 09, 2024


Jagmeet Singh faces demolishing what’s left of his credibility


Episode Stats


Length

43 minutes

Words per minute

172.5731

Word count

7,483

Sentence count

482

Harmful content

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In the wake of the announcement that the deal between the Trudeau government and the opposition party is off the table, we talk to a couple of insiders who were in the inner circle for both Jack Layton and Tom Mulroney.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:01:11.520 It became very clear to me that Justin Trudeau is too beholden to corporate interests to
00:01:24.580 go further, unwilling to stop big corporations that are ripping off Canadians.
00:01:29.260 And so I've ripped up the supply and confidence agreement with Justin Trudeau, and we know
00:01:34.520 that that makes the election timing more uncertain and, frankly, more likely.
00:01:38.460 They say that breaking up is hard to do, but Justin Trudeau recently did that, a second
00:01:45.220 big breakup for Justin in just over two years.
00:01:47.680 It's going to be difficult for him, but his government will survive, for now.
00:01:52.460 The biggest thing that happens out of all of this is uncertainty.
00:01:56.020 Now, to try and put a bit of context on all of this, we reached out to Carl Belanger.
00:02:00.640 Hello, welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.
00:02:02.480 My name's Brian Lilly, your host, and Carl Belanger is someone who has worked in and around
00:02:06.680 federal politics for decades now, and someone who was at the inner circle for Jack Layton
00:02:12.300 and Tom Mulcair while they were NDP leaders.
00:02:15.100 Carl, what did you make of this when you heard the news that the deal was off?
00:02:20.760 Were you shocked?
00:02:22.040 I was surprised.
00:02:23.180 Certainly, I was surprised at the timing.
00:02:25.580 You always knew that at some point, the NDP was going to try to create some distance from
00:02:31.020 their liberal allies because they don't want to be sinking with the ship, and that ship
00:02:34.700 has been sinking for quite some time now.
00:02:36.460 So you were wondering, when is it going to be over?
00:02:40.040 And we heard that Jagmeet Singh decided to break up with Dustin by sending him a little text
00:02:45.380 at the last minute, saying, hey, we're done here.
00:02:48.880 Yeah, it's not even a very dignified way to break up.
00:02:55.220 You release a video.
00:02:56.120 Oh, and first off, Brian Lilly of the Toronto Sun is the guy who breaks it online, somehow
00:03:03.080 getting the internal NDP caucus emails.
00:03:06.500 And I learned by watching CBC that I was out there with the news before they'd even officially
00:03:13.180 informed the PMO.
00:03:14.600 So before Trudeau's office was officially notified, I made it public.
00:03:18.800 And I tried, and I tried to get confirmation all morning, first as I heard the rumor, to break
00:03:25.780 it on my own radio network with Kojiko Media.
00:03:30.940 And I couldn't, nobody would get back to me.
00:03:33.140 They didn't want to confirm anything.
00:03:34.560 So it goes to shows that they like you now more than they like me, Brian.
00:03:41.520 Well, okay.
00:03:42.760 So you were in the inner circle.
00:03:45.480 You're not now.
00:03:46.440 But what insight can you take me through in terms of how this decision happened?
00:03:52.560 You know, I've talked to people who were much more chatty after the announcement happened
00:03:57.180 than before.
00:03:57.780 Because like you, I was, I was bugging people in the, being very tight lipped and then somebody
00:04:03.000 wasn't.
00:04:03.660 And, and, you know, the, the news got out there a little bit earlier, but my understanding
00:04:07.860 is caucus has been talking about this since the house rose, that this was decided before
00:04:15.240 the rail strike, even the binding arbitration was put through that they'd made the decision
00:04:20.980 and shot the video two more than two weeks ago.
00:04:24.060 So this tells me that it was not a principal decision.
00:04:27.780 It was not based on the agreement, not fulfilling its promises.
00:04:32.040 It was not based on any kind of crisis that was happening or any kind of, of, you know, big
00:04:39.700 rift between the liberals and the new Democrats.
00:04:42.100 It's a pure political calculation decision.
00:04:45.620 And so what the new Democrats want to do now is to use the next number of months of months,
00:04:51.860 try to, to, to create some distance and establish themselves as an opposition party.
00:04:57.720 As opposed to a party that's propping up the liberals over and over.
00:05:01.500 Will they be able to do that?
00:05:03.580 Well, we'll, we'll see.
00:05:05.540 Because, you know, when we heard that Jagmeet's express conference, he was asked many times,
00:05:11.040 including by you about this confidence in the Trudeau government.
00:05:14.260 And, and we could not really get an answer on that.
00:05:17.020 Okay.
00:05:17.480 So we, since you brought it up, I want to play, um, a, a quick clip here.
00:05:22.240 I'd already asked him once, um, and I wasn't the first reporter, but I just put it very plainly.
00:05:27.480 My question was, do you have confidence in the Trudeau government?
00:05:30.860 And he talked about a lot of things, including how he is the guy who will fight Pierre Polyev.
00:05:36.260 And then I, I went to him again and asked him five times.
00:05:41.060 And, and here's that exchange.
00:05:43.600 You've said about a dozen times, at least that you've ripped up the agreement and that that makes an election more likely,
00:05:48.700 but you've been asked several times and you won't answer.
00:05:51.700 Do you have confidence in the Trudeau government as they stand now?
00:05:56.080 I will be a clear again, we have absolutely ripped up the agreement with Justin Trudeau.
00:06:02.140 And that means an election is more likely.
00:06:03.580 That's not clear.
00:06:04.580 You're an election.
00:06:05.580 Whenever that election comes, we'll be ready to fight it.
00:06:08.380 And the vision around that election is going to be an important one.
00:06:11.180 Canadians will have to make a choice.
00:06:12.580 But can we get an answer?
00:06:13.680 Corporate control conservatives.
00:06:14.980 They're going to let their corporate buddies rip you off even more.
00:06:17.080 The new Democrats are going to save you money on your rent and your groceries.
00:06:19.780 That's a choice that Canadians will have to make.
00:06:21.380 Can we get an answer?
00:06:22.880 I will look at any vote that comes before us,
00:06:25.580 then we will make a decision in the best interest of Canadians as any minority government normally operates.
00:06:30.080 Okay, so Carl, you're the former comms guy.
00:06:34.780 You worked with Jack Layton and Tom Mulcair.
00:06:37.880 You still advise through your company, Traction Strategies.
00:06:41.680 You still advise people on communications.
00:06:43.880 What's the comm strategy of not answering that question more than a dozen times when you know that that's coming?
00:06:51.280 Because I don't think Jagmeet's press conference went quite the way they'd hoped it would.
00:06:56.780 No, and they tried to control the press conference as much as they could, but at the end of the day, you could see that there was a very fine line that Jagmeet Singh was trying to walk on about the confidence into the Trudeau government.
00:07:11.480 Because when you push the decision to its logic, the conclusion is you have lost confidence in your partner.
00:07:19.680 Well, the agreement was called supply and confidence.
00:07:23.680 And confidence, exactly.
00:07:24.680 And so he doesn't want to say if he has confidence or not in the Trudeau government.
00:07:29.680 Frankly, there's a couple of things at play, but I think the Democrats here are at risk of ignatiev themselves.
00:07:39.680 Okay, so I heard you use that phrase on TV the other day.
00:07:44.680 You're the only person that's made the comparison, and I think it's absolutely brilliant.
00:07:47.680 Yeah.
00:07:48.680 Explain what that is to ignatiev yourself.
00:07:51.680 So, Michael Ignatiev, when he was leader of the Liberal Party at a big press conference where he announced to Stephen Harper,
00:07:58.680 Mr. Harper, your time is up.
00:08:01.680 And then he was saying it's laying the stage for an election that was happening soon.
00:08:07.680 Sadly, when the time came for the Liberals to bring down the government, confidence vote after confidence votes after confidence vote,
00:08:16.680 the Liberals kept Stephen Harper in power time and time again.
00:08:19.680 So even though he was grandstanding about bringing down the government, he was not able to pull the trigger.
00:08:24.680 And when the opportunity arose for him to do so, he was not doing it.
00:08:28.680 So basically, you were keeping Harper in power.
00:08:31.680 And this is what could happen to Jagmeet Singh and the NDP because you will have a series of confidence votes,
00:08:39.680 some triggered by the opposition, some triggered by the government.
00:08:42.680 You know, the budget comes to mind, of course.
00:08:45.680 The whole economic statement that I expect sometime in November.
00:08:49.680 Yeah.
00:08:50.680 So there will be a series of votes and you will be forced to make a decision based on that.
00:08:55.680 Now, if every single time the NDP is the party that's propping up the Liberals without getting anything in return,
00:09:02.680 well, you will get all the negative of being associated with the government and none of the positive that they had with the supply and confidence agreement,
00:09:09.680 namely all the public policies they were able to push forward.
00:09:12.680 That's the big downside for Jagmeet Singh.
00:09:15.680 And this is where I think the New Democrats are hoping that somehow the Bloc Québécois will come to the table and become a dance partner for the Liberals
00:09:24.680 to kind of allow them to vote against the Liberal government and to create that distance with them.
00:09:29.680 That's what they're hoping for anyway.
00:09:32.680 Okay.
00:09:33.680 So I want to ask you a few things about the agreement.
00:09:37.680 I don't think the NDP win or lose from it, but since you brought up the Bloc, Yves-Francois Blanchet was on Mario Dimancheau on TVA and was saying,
00:09:50.680 no, we're not going to vote for the Liberals.
00:09:52.680 Yeah.
00:09:53.680 Well, they're not going to vote for the Liberals per se, but if they are able to use that newfound balance of power that they have to make some gains for Quebec, they will.
00:10:04.680 If they are able to put pressure to allow the federal government to make concessions to Quebec government on key issues,
00:10:11.680 health care, financing, housing, immigration comes to mind.
00:10:17.680 Immigration is huge in Quebec.
00:10:19.680 It's huge.
00:10:20.680 It's a huge irritant between the two governments.
00:10:23.680 And so you could see the Bloc Québécois say, well, you know, we don't necessarily have confidence in this government, but this particular thing is a gain for Quebec.
00:10:31.680 This is why the Bloc Québécois is in Ottawa.
00:10:33.680 And this is why Quebecers should continue to vote for the Bloc Québécois.
00:10:37.680 It's a great message for the Bloc because, frankly, ever since the agreement came in place, there was not a lot of thunder for the Bloc Québécois.
00:10:49.680 You did not really hear from them.
00:10:51.680 They were not really a player because you had the main opposition and the conservatives, and yet the NDP was using that balance of power to make some gains and campaign on it.
00:11:00.680 So the Bloc Québécois was kind of in a limbo, not doing much.
00:11:03.680 Now they have a newfound raison d'ĂŞtre, and I think they will use it to good effect.
00:11:09.680 So the Bloc will vote for the government if they can get something. 0.63
00:11:15.680 Oh, yeah.
00:11:16.680 Did the NDP get much, though, from this agreement?
00:11:19.680 And let me give you my view on it.
00:11:22.680 There's the dental care program, but it's not what New Democrats wanted.
00:11:28.680 There's the PharmaCare program, and it's not what New Democrats wanted.
00:11:33.680 In fact, I would argue that on both of those, the government put forward the bare minimum, the least that they could to continue the agreement.
00:11:43.680 And yeah, they're just hoping that that goes along.
00:11:46.680 Is that good enough?
00:11:47.680 I mean, I know Singh came out with his announcement the other day and said this agreement was so good for Canadians because we got so much done, but now they're the worst government ever and we have to break up with them.
00:12:00.680 Did they actually achieve what they wanted or did they just get token little gifts?
00:12:07.680 It's a very good question.
00:12:09.680 And certainly, I think one of the reasons why I was surprised that they pulled the plug on the deal, because they could have bona fide these programs.
00:12:17.680 They could have kept working to improve these programs, to add more drugs to the PharmaCare plan, to increase, expand services on the dental care program.
00:12:25.680 And so they are not going to be able to do that now.
00:12:28.680 And more to the point, these programs are not established well enough to make the conservatives see twice about removing them and dropping them once they're in power.
00:12:43.680 So we are one step closer for all these achievements that the NEP has made over the past few years to disappear if an election happens and Pierre Poirier becomes prime minister.
00:12:53.680 So it makes it very peculiar that the NEP would walk away from all of that after all this time that they've spent propping up the liberals.
00:13:00.680 And so I think the basis of the problem is the way that this deal was negotiated and the wording in some of this deal that allowed the liberals to keep going and the NEP to keep voting for them.
00:13:12.680 There was a lot of aspirational language.
00:13:15.680 Right. We are working towards establishing this, establishing that.
00:13:19.680 And the liberals are very good at aspirational language as opposed to delivering.
00:13:24.680 Right.
00:13:25.680 Deliverology was a thing.
00:13:27.680 Is that is that still a thing?
00:13:29.680 But it's not anymore.
00:13:30.680 It disappeared.
00:13:31.680 Right.
00:13:32.680 And so for the NEP, the goal was to to have some kind of a governance record.
00:13:38.680 Right.
00:13:39.680 You achieve all these things, you push for all these things, and then you have it in your record and you can campaign on it and say, you like these things we've worked on with the liberals.
00:13:47.680 They are the bare minimum.
00:13:49.680 They're kind of window dressing.
00:13:50.680 Just imagine how much better Canada could be if NEP was in power to establish fully these programs, but they have not been able to get credit for that.
00:14:01.680 Certainly in the polls, they have not been able to make any gain.
00:14:04.680 If anything, they've been stalled around the 20 percent bar for quite some time.
00:14:08.680 And sadly for them, while their liberal ally has been dropping in the polls, the one party that benefited is the conservative party, not the NEP.
00:14:18.680 Well, you know, I was pointing that out.
00:14:20.680 I did a column a week or two before saying Jagmeet Singh is the boy who's cried wolf because I didn't believe him on the rail strike that he would do this.
00:14:29.680 And as we've established, it wasn't due to the rail strike.
00:14:32.680 But he had cried wolf so many times and said, oh, this is the horrible government, but I'm going to vote for you.
00:14:39.680 The last Leger poll taken before the agreement was signed in March 2022 had the new Democrats at 22 percent.
00:14:50.680 The latest Leger poll released last week has them at 15.
00:14:53.680 I would argue that, you know, politically, the deal has damaged the NDP's fortunes with voters.
00:15:02.680 Yeah, I mean, to be honest with you, that Leger poll, and I think the Leger folks would acknowledge that it could be an outlier.
00:15:10.680 15 percent is the lowest they've polled in quite some time in any polling firm.
00:15:15.680 Nanos had them at 20 percent in their latest poll, which came out after the Leger.
00:15:21.680 But they are overing between 15 and 20 percent since the deal was signed.
00:15:25.680 So I don't think they've lost any support, but I don't think they've gained any support.
00:15:29.680 And the ideal scenario for the NDP was we will move forward.
00:15:34.680 People will like our policies.
00:15:36.680 They'll decide that the messenger, i.e., the prime minister, is the wrong guy.
00:15:40.680 And therefore, because they like these policies, they'll turn to us.
00:15:43.680 They have not.
00:15:45.680 And this is the problem because the people who are tired of Trudeau decided to go with the conservatives.
00:15:51.680 I don't think these people are coming back.
00:15:53.680 And so now the hope for the NDP is to establish itself as a strong opposition, not to the liberals, to the conservatives.
00:16:01.680 So they're hoping to somehow leap in second place and then cannibalize somehow the remaining liberal voters to come over their side to face Pierre Poiliev.
00:16:14.680 It's a big gamble because right now you're doing that from the third place position.
00:16:20.680 Although Justin Trudeau did that in 2015.
00:16:23.680 Much to your chagrin, you were on that campaign.
00:16:26.680 Yes, that's correct.
00:16:27.680 I mean, it's possible because it's been done.
00:16:30.680 And so but that's the game plan.
00:16:32.680 That's why you could you could hear Jagmeet Singh basically in every response to every question during that press conference to say, you know, you have a choice to make.
00:16:41.680 There will be a choice in the Canadian in the next election.
00:16:43.680 It will be between the conservative who are siding with a big corporation who are ripping you off and the NDP who want to face up to corporate greed and put more money in your pockets.
00:16:54.680 That's that's the binary combination that Jagmeet Singh is offering to Canadians trying to describe the liberals as weak and and trying to marginalize them.
00:17:04.680 Will they be able to succeed? I don't know, but certainly it seems like that's the game plan.
00:17:08.680 OK, I'd like to get deeper into that, but let me ask you about this.
00:17:12.680 I'm going to put a scenario out and people will think I'm crazy because I don't think anybody believes the liberals can come back right now.
00:17:22.680 Just look, Jeremy Broadhurst, their national campaign director, a well-respected guy around the hill, political pro.
00:17:29.680 He's just left because he doesn't think they can win.
00:17:33.680 But imagine this scenario. They don't prorogue, which the rumor around Ottawa is they might invoke prorogation.
00:17:40.680 I think it would be a good idea, actually.
00:17:43.680 So, you know, then the House would not come back on September 16th.
00:17:46.680 But if the House came back on September 16th, you're probably have says I'm going to put forward a non-confidence vote as soon as I can.
00:17:55.680 That likely would see within the first two weeks there would be an opposition day that would see a potentially a vote before the Americans go to the polls.
00:18:05.680 And I actually think that could be in Justin Trudeau's favor because his only hope is, you know, like Princess Leia said, Obi Wan Kenobi, your only hope.
00:18:16.680 Justin Trudeau's looking south of the border and saying, Donald Trump, you're my only hope.
00:18:20.680 So if we're voting before the Americans, he would just campaign for 37 days against Donald Trump and try and scare every new Democrat voter and some who now say they'll back the conservatives to come into the warm embrace of the liberal fold.
00:18:37.680 And maybe he squeaks out another 32% of the popular vote win.
00:18:44.680 A couple of things about that.
00:18:46.680 I don't think the election of Donald Trump is the liberals only hope, but it certainly would be helpful to them, for sure, because the scenario you laid out is absolutely right.
00:18:58.680 They would campaign against Donald Trump and associate Pierre Poirier to Donald Trump.
00:19:01.680 And they've already started doing that, even though, you know, Trump is not in office yet.
00:19:06.680 You've seen some liberals mention Donald Trump regularly in comparison to Pierre Poirier and his team.
00:19:11.680 But I want to talk about Justin Trudeau's capacity to come back from behind, because he's done it not once, not twice, but in three consecutive elections.
00:19:23.680 He was trailing in the polls and he ended up prime minister.
00:19:28.680 And so we may want to underestimate him, but he's done it.
00:19:33.680 Now, of course, he didn't have the baggage that he has now and the fatigue of being in power.
00:19:38.680 But, you know, it's not like Canadians are enamored with Pierre Poirier.
00:19:44.680 When you look at his personal numbers, they're not that great.
00:19:47.680 And he's kind of winning by default.
00:19:49.680 And I think that's partly why the NDP did what he did, because they think that Pierre Poirier is winning by default.
00:19:55.680 And so they want to rise up as being something different than the liberals and try to convince people that they are a true alternative for government.
00:20:05.680 And they could not do that as long as they were in that deal with the true government.
00:20:10.680 So you've been part of the campaign team that delivered the best result the federal NDP have ever had.
00:20:18.680 And I want to talk about that experience and how it can be applied to sing when we come back more after this.
00:20:25.680 Carl, I still remember your NDP team coming into the old offices of Sun News Network and TVA in the Quebec court days in Ottawa.
00:20:37.680 You were doing a dog and pony show for all the big networks trying to say this is why you should cover the NDP because there were there have been times in past elections where media outlets would say, oh, well, election campaigns are really expensive.
00:20:52.680 And, you know, we can't afford to have somebody on all the planes and all the buses and you guys went around to all the big newspapers, all the big TV networks.
00:21:02.680 And you said, here's why you need to be on our plane.
00:21:05.680 And it worked. We we sent a reporter on your plane, I believe, for the duration of the campaign.
00:21:12.680 But in that meeting, you guys laid out a very clear strategy as part of your sales pitch to the media.
00:21:20.680 You said, here's what's going to happen in the campaign and here's what we're going to do.
00:21:25.680 And you didn't give a, you know, in intricate detail, but enough that you said we're going to slice from the liberals and slice from the conservatives.
00:21:32.680 And here's where we're going to win. And here's why you should pay attention.
00:21:35.680 That that was a very well-planned campaign.
00:21:38.680 A lot of good people like yourself, Brad Levine, Kathleen Monk, all working on that.
00:21:44.680 Does Jagmeet have a team like that around him now that that can pull off the same sort of thing that that you guys did in 2011?
00:21:54.680 It's an interesting comparison, and the answer is maybe there's some people that were there in 2011 that are there now.
00:22:03.680 Anne McGrath come to mind. So she's been around and she played a key role in 2011.
00:22:09.680 And there's some new people who have not, you know, been able to to do what we did in 2011 and certainly maybe not have the same kind of experience.
00:22:19.680 But there are some conditions that are a little similar to what happened in 2011.
00:22:24.680 And you didn't mention the block and during that dog and pony show, as he called it.
00:22:30.680 We did say at the time that we had our sights on half a dozen seats in Quebec.
00:22:35.680 We were saying we will make some games at the expense of the block and we will win half a dozen seats, which was met by mockery and laughter most of the time.
00:22:43.680 But prove that we were underestimating ourselves.
00:22:47.680 But the game plan was was was clear and we were able to pull that off.
00:22:52.680 And there was one thing that happened.
00:22:54.680 It happened a few years prior.
00:22:56.680 It was when we ran Tom Mulcair in the by-election in Tramont in 2007.
00:23:03.680 And he was the first NDP MP elected in Quebec since Phil Edmundston in the by-election in 1990.
00:23:11.680 And he became the tĂŞte de pont or the NDP.
00:23:16.680 It took a few years, but he became immediately he made immediately the NDP a factor in Quebec.
00:23:22.680 There's a by-election coming up in La Salle des Mars Verdun right now.
00:23:27.680 The NDP is running a very popular city councilor, Craig Sauvé.
00:23:31.680 He doesn't have the statue of Tom Mulcair, but I think the Democrats are hoping that making that game in Quebec could establish them again as a potential winner in Quebec and across the country.
00:23:43.680 And like Mulcair, Craig Sauvé is a guy who straddles the English and the French communities.
00:23:48.680 Absolutely.
00:23:49.680 Absolutely.
00:23:50.680 He's running in a in a riding that is a liberal stronghold like Tom Mulcair did in the Tramont.
00:23:55.680 But he's able to push both into the liberal and the bloc support, which makes it a very interesting race.
00:24:02.680 So that's kind of the background for everything that happened this week with Jagmeet Singh pulling out of the agreement,
00:24:07.680 because it feels like the NDP needed that contrast now to win that seat and keep the seat in Elmoun Transcona in Winnipeg.
00:24:16.680 Because if you are able to win seats, you can demonstrate that you can win seats elsewhere.
00:24:22.680 And that's the one comparison I would make with 2011 is that if they are able to win that Quebec seats, perhaps they've shown Canadians that they are back into serious contention.
00:24:35.680 And that's key for the electorate, because you never vote for the also-ran. 1.00
00:24:39.680 So let me ask, though, I mean, Jack Layton was a popular leader.
00:24:45.680 I'm not sure that Jagmeet Singh is right now, and it's not just the polling.
00:24:52.680 A reader out in Winnipeg sent me the campaign literature that's being dropped off.
00:24:58.680 The conservative campaign literature and the conservatives, they're downplaying expectations in there, but they desperately would love to win that seat back.
00:25:05.680 They've held it. In fact, it's a very swingy riding. Elmwood Transcona has been held by all three parties in the last 20 years.
00:25:14.680 So they'd like to win it. But the NDP literature, sorry, the conservative literature has Pierre Polyev all over it, along with the local candidate.
00:25:23.680 But the NDP literature features Daniel Blakey. It features Wab Kanu. It does not mention or show a photo of Jagmeet Singh.
00:25:33.680 That's normally a sign of, you know, parties like to play up their leader.
00:25:38.680 Yeah. And nobody would argue that Jagmeet Singh is Jack Layton. I don't think anyone, I don't think he would make that comparison himself.
00:25:45.680 I think he's quite aware of the differences and the personalities are different and the way that the political landscape evolved, you know, is also very different.
00:25:55.680 But it is certainly a sign that he is not necessarily seen as an asset across the country.
00:26:02.680 And so they're going to need to work on that because for better or for worse in this country, even though we have 338 ridings and thousands of candidates,
00:26:13.680 most people vote for the leader in the party. And that's a big challenge for the NDP.
00:26:18.680 And I think they're gambling that by showing strength in pulling out of that agreement and standing up to the conservative and describing the liberals as weak,
00:26:29.680 we'll be able to lift Singh up and make him, you know, a better, a more liked leader.
00:26:38.680 What's interesting in the Muntrescona, I just want to make sure that, for the record, in the 11 elections that happened, the 11 last elections that happened,
00:26:48.680 the NDP won that seat and the conservative ran second except once in 2011.
00:26:52.680 Oh, I thought the liberals had held it at one point as well.
00:26:55.680 Not for the past 11 elections. Since Bill Blakey won it, actually since the writing was created after a redistribution,
00:27:02.680 the liberals have been disinterred place. They're not a factor in that writing.
00:27:06.680 So when we were talking earlier about that blue-orange switch voter, that's the kind of swing writing we're talking about.
00:27:15.680 So the NDP must retain that seat. If they lose to the conservative, their narrative that they are standing up to the conservatives,
00:27:23.680 that they can defeat conservatives, will fall apart.
00:27:25.680 So I think that's one of the reasons why the decision was made to pull the plug on the deal with the liberals,
00:27:32.680 because it was hurting them in Elmwood Transcona and they cannot afford to lose an NDP stronghold like that.
00:27:38.680 Well, if they win in La Salle-Marge Verdun and then lose Elmwood Transcona,
00:27:45.680 that would effectively take all of the wind out of the sails of winning the Montreal writing.
00:27:50.680 It certainly would dampen the expectation.
00:27:53.680 There would be a hurray and then a crying fit.
00:27:57.680 Yeah, because the Blakey family has held that writing forever,
00:28:01.680 except for a couple of elections where Jim Malloway was the MP there.
00:28:06.680 But Bill Blakey was there for the longest time.
00:28:09.680 Then Daniel Blakey came around.
00:28:11.680 And so it's a key writing for the NDP.
00:28:14.680 They lose that to the conservatives.
00:28:17.680 It's a big problem for them.
00:28:20.680 Let's just stick with Jagmeet Singh.
00:28:22.680 And is he the right fit for the party?
00:28:27.680 Someone described him to me as Holt Renfrew Jagmeet,
00:28:32.680 and Holt Renfrew and the NDP don't go well together.
00:28:35.680 Does he match the tenor of the party or the voting pool that the party's trying to get
00:28:45.680 with the Rolexes and the suits and the expensive cars and all of that?
00:28:51.680 Well, I mean, New Democrats certainly seem to think so.
00:28:56.680 The confidence vote at the last convention was quite decisive, quite good for Jagmeet Singh.
00:29:02.680 But this is his last kick at the can.
00:29:06.680 Like, he needs to make significant gains this time around.
00:29:09.680 So I think that's partly why, too, they decided to pull the plug on that deal,
00:29:14.680 because he has to go all in now.
00:29:16.680 He has to go for broke.
00:29:18.680 And so this is why I was saying earlier in the show that this was a decision made purely for political reason.
00:29:28.680 And that's part of the political calculation.
00:29:30.680 Jagmeet Singh knows that he will not have a fifth election to run on.
00:29:35.680 Like, you know, usually leaders' last two elections is last at four.
00:29:40.680 Some have argued, and have been one of them, that perhaps he should not have ran for more than two elections.
00:29:48.680 Well, I'm still puzzled why Tom Mulcair was thrown out after delivering the second best result for the federal NDP.
00:29:55.680 Exactly, right?
00:29:56.680 And it goes down to expectations.
00:29:59.680 There was a lot of expectations of Tom Mulcair to deliver the New Jerusalem to the New Democrats
00:30:05.680 and to form the first NDP government on the heels of Jack Layton's performance in 2011.
00:30:11.680 It didn't happen.
00:30:12.680 And despite the fact that it was the second best results in the history of the CCF NDP,
00:30:16.680 he was kicked out of the leadership position.
00:30:20.680 Judd Mitzen got more leeway because nobody expected him to win.
00:30:23.680 But this time around, you have to show some growth.
00:30:27.680 So they're positioning themselves as the alternative.
00:30:30.680 Yeah.
00:30:31.680 Is there a chance for the NDP?
00:30:34.680 And I want a realistic, you know, not Karl Belanger, the New Democrat, but Karl Belanger, the political pundit.
00:30:41.680 Look at the ground right now.
00:30:43.680 And is there a chance for the New Democrats to step over the liberals in the next election?
00:30:49.680 I know they're going to say that they're in it to win it.
00:30:51.680 I don't see them being in a position to win the election yet.
00:30:55.680 But there's, you know, depending on when it happens, could be a while.
00:30:59.680 Things may change.
00:31:01.680 But at this point, I would say there is the potential to at least step over the liberals and replace them again like you did in 2011 and make the liberals the third party.
00:31:12.680 The key for that to happen is Ontario.
00:31:14.680 And because I think in B.C. and Western provinces, I think the liberals are have lost too much ground and the NDP will beat them.
00:31:24.680 You know, the conservatives will win a lot of seats, obviously, probably the most seats.
00:31:28.680 But the NDP will probably come in a strong second in in the B.C. and the three Prairie provinces.
00:31:34.680 Quebec.
00:31:35.680 I mean, we'll see what happens in La Salle de Marse Verdun in a couple of weeks.
00:31:40.680 The Maritimes, the NDP has never been able to really grow from the breakthrough that Alexa McDonough had in 1997 by winning in seats in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
00:31:52.680 So the key is Ontario.
00:31:54.680 And in Ontario, the liberals remain strong, especially in in downtown Toronto.
00:32:00.680 They are very strong.
00:32:02.680 Can the NDP breakthrough in downtown Toronto?
00:32:05.680 That's where Jack Layton and Olivia Chow were from.
00:32:09.680 And, you know, they elected Andrew Cash.
00:32:12.680 They elected a bunch of MPs in Toronto, even in the 905 under Jack Layton in 2011.
00:32:19.680 And that was that that's when the NDP was able to supplant the liberals because the liberal vote collapsed in Ontario.
00:32:25.680 Can this happen again?
00:32:27.680 I'm not sure.
00:32:28.680 It's possible because it's happened in the past.
00:32:30.680 And Jagmeet Singh has had some success himself in Ontario.
00:32:33.680 But if you look at what's happening on the provincial scene where where the Ontario Liberals, even though they are the third party and they don't have official status in at Queen's Park, they are still neck and neck with the NDP for second place.
00:32:48.680 And and so you need the NDP to step up in Ontario for the scenario that you mentioned to unfold.
00:32:54.680 Realistic shot at them winning the next election?
00:32:59.680 It's a long shot.
00:33:02.680 It's a very long shot.
00:33:03.680 I wouldn't put too much money on it.
00:33:05.680 But of course, we've seen where things happen in campaigns.
00:33:09.680 We've seen things.
00:33:10.680 I mean, nobody predicted that Justin Trudeau would be prime minister at the beginning of the 2015 campaign.
00:33:15.680 It seemed to be a race between Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair, and he came from behind and won it all.
00:33:20.680 So it's happened then, could happen again.
00:33:23.680 The thing about the electorate and the voters right now, they are not loyal the way they used to be.
00:33:31.680 They changed their mind very quickly.
00:33:33.680 They do not care about great grandpa who voted liberal and grandpa who voted liberal and so on and so forth.
00:33:43.680 The N doesn't come out from the tomb to mark that ballot like we used to see. 0.60
00:33:48.680 People do not care.
00:33:51.680 I mean, the party membership were down.
00:33:53.680 Fundraising is not what was once.
00:33:56.680 And so they can change their mind very quickly.
00:33:59.680 And that's why you've seen these spectacular shifts during campaigns over the past decades.
00:34:05.680 It was September 15th, I believe, was the date that everything changed for you guys being out in front in the 2015 campaign and Trudeau taking over.
00:34:16.680 It was mid-September.
00:34:19.680 So, you know, that was more than halfway through the campaign when that happened.
00:34:25.680 Yeah, it was a very long campaign, but you're right.
00:34:28.680 It was a few days after Labor Day, mid-September, that everything shifted.
00:34:32.680 Because before that, the NEP was either ahead or right behind the Conservatives.
00:34:39.680 But the Liberals were crawling back and, you know, a lot of things happened.
00:34:43.680 But then the thing at the time in 2015 that is not there now is that the government in power was Stephen Harper and the fatigue was on the Conservatives.
00:34:52.680 And so I think the Conservatives knew that for them to win, they needed to have the NEP and the Liberals remain relatively stable.
00:35:04.680 They could not afford one of them to take over.
00:35:07.680 And this is what happened because we and the Liberals knew that either we would form government or the Liberals would form government because Canadians were tired of Harper.
00:35:15.680 And so the Liberals ended up winning the day.
00:35:19.680 In the current scenario, I think the fact that the FEDSIG is on Trudeau and the Liberals is creating a different set of conditions, which the Conservatives are benefiting from right now, despite the misgivings that some people might have in Pierre Poirier's personally.
00:35:34.680 They are seen as the government in waiting and, you know, unless the NEP can somehow step up its game and showcase how they would govern differently than the Liberals and create that contrast with the Liberals, the path to power for the NEP is tenuous.
00:35:54.680 The Liberals, however, you know, they have to deal with that fatigue.
00:35:58.680 They have to deal with the speculation about Justin Trudeau's future.
00:36:01.680 It's coming every other week, every other month.
00:36:03.680 There's always a scenario about, is he going to go?
00:36:05.680 Is he going to walk off?
00:36:06.680 Is he going to take that famous walk in the snow like his father did?
00:36:09.680 And those are not helpful for the Liberals because people like to have some stability and all these questions are not helping the Liberal cause for sure.
00:36:18.680 Instability, uncertainty, that's what we've got from this.
00:36:23.680 You worked through several minority governments.
00:36:26.680 I covered several minority governments.
00:36:28.680 People are saying to me, oh, the Jagmeet pulling out of this is a nothing burger.
00:36:34.680 It won't change anything.
00:36:35.680 I said, well, it might.
00:36:39.680 Like, we just don't know.
00:36:42.680 Explain for, for listeners, like, what is it like in an uncertain environment of a minority government
00:36:51.680 where things could literally fall at any moment?
00:36:54.680 Well, it could fall because you can't count in the house.
00:36:58.680 That's happened.
00:36:59.680 It's happened in the past.
00:37:00.680 You don't know how many MPs are showing up for a vote.
00:37:02.680 And all of a sudden we're off to the polls.
00:37:05.680 So it creates a very, I mean, as a party staffer, as a political staffer, being on Parliament Hill during those moments where you don't know what's going to happen from one moment to the next is very exhilarating because everything that you do can matter.
00:37:19.680 Everything that you say can matter.
00:37:21.680 It can sway something.
00:37:23.680 And there's always unforeseen events, right?
00:37:25.680 Like, remember when Belinda Stronach came out of nowhere to cross the floor to the Liberals?
00:37:30.680 Nobody expected that.
00:37:32.680 There was the non-confidence vote that passed that Paul Martin just ignored because he said it wasn't done properly.
00:37:40.680 It wasn't done properly.
00:37:42.680 I mean, it was a vote of non-confidence and he just chose to ignore it and kept governing for several more months.
00:37:49.680 And so it's always, you know, it's always unpredictable in this situation.
00:37:53.680 And this is why if the Conservatives are serious in trying to bring down the government, they need to move forward with a motion that is very simple and very clear that this house has lost confidence in the government.
00:38:04.680 If they talk about the carbon tax or some other nonsense that they can pull from their policy or their ideology, they will give an out to the NDP and or the Bloc Québécois.
00:38:16.680 So if you're serious, you keep it simple.
00:38:18.680 If you're not serious, if you just want to use it to bolster your case, then you're going to have a series of these kind of situation,
00:38:28.680 Bricksmanship, which, you know, will be interesting, but won't amount to anything until it does.
00:38:35.680 But I think in that scenario, Pierre Poiliev wins either way.
00:38:39.680 I agree. He should do a very simple, exactly what you said, that this house has lost confidence in the government.
00:38:46.680 That's it. Yeah.
00:38:47.680 But if if the other parties don't vote with them to bring down the government, he wins because he gets to attack them for supporting Justin Trudeau's liberals,
00:38:57.680 least, you know, most unpopular government in forever.
00:39:00.680 And if they vote with them, well, he gets the election that he wants.
00:39:04.680 So he's got a win win scenario here. Yeah.
00:39:07.680 So it depends what the objective is. Right.
00:39:09.680 Right. Because you're right that he will be able to see see what I said about the NDP liberal costly coalition who love the carbon tax.
00:39:16.680 I was right. But people don't vote if there's no election.
00:39:20.680 And so, you know, at some point, everything that goes up will come down.
00:39:25.680 Is it possible that the quality of conservatives speak too soon?
00:39:30.680 It is possible.
00:39:31.680 We've seen it happen in the past where a party is leading, is leading ahead of the election and then been leading for too long.
00:39:38.680 And suddenly in the campaign, it fizzles.
00:39:40.680 So so that's the calculus that the conservatives have to make.
00:39:44.680 When do we want that election?
00:39:46.680 Do we want it now or do we want to keep playing with with the liberals and the NDP for for some time?
00:39:52.680 Because if they want to keep playing, it's in their power.
00:39:55.680 But if they want to bring down the government, they need to put that to the test with a very simple motion.
00:40:01.680 And then if the NDP prop up the liberals and get nothing in return, they still win because they can they can even point out that the NDP was not serious by pulling out of the agreement in that for all for all effect.
00:40:17.680 The the the coalition is still in place.
00:40:20.680 I want to ask you about the pension issue with Jagmeet, you know, because for years I've been hearing people say, well, he just won't vote them down because he wants to get his pension.
00:40:30.680 And for a long time, I was dismissive of that because I thought, no, like, you know, people are around and do things for greater reasons than that.
00:40:38.680 And then I one day I called up the Taxpayers Federation and every time an MP retires, they've got an estimate of what their pension is.
00:40:44.680 So I said, you guys do that. What would Jagmeet's pension be if he just got the six years?
00:40:49.680 And they said, I believe the estimate was two point two or two point three million dollars over the course of his lifetime.
00:40:55.680 And I said, well, that's a lot of money for anybody not to, you know, to give up.
00:41:02.680 Do you think that plays a factor in any of this?
00:41:05.680 Frankly, I don't think so.
00:41:08.680 I mean, if you want to talk about the pension, I guess it's easy for Pierre Poiliev to make that accusation because his pension is secured at age 31.
00:41:20.680 Yeah, it's going to be much bigger than Jagmeet Singh.
00:41:22.680 So, you know, of course, it's easy to say, oh, he's doing it for the pension when your pension is secured.
00:41:26.680 But I don't think it's it's part of the calculation.
00:41:29.680 Frankly, I think it was part of the Liberals calculation when they changed the election date, however.
00:41:34.680 I certainly think it was when they moved to October 25th.
00:41:39.680 Exactly. Because then then a bunch of MPs, including Liberals, New Democrats, and I think some conservatives and some blockists, too, will get their pension. 0.95
00:41:47.680 I think that was part of the calculation.
00:41:49.680 But but for Jagmeet Singh at this time, I don't think it's I mean, I don't think he believes he will lose his seat.
00:41:56.680 So he'll get it anyway.
00:41:58.680 That's that's exactly it.
00:41:59.680 Oh, yeah.
00:42:00.680 Oh, yeah. So final question.
00:42:02.680 Sixty four thousand dollar question.
00:42:04.680 When will the election be?
00:42:06.680 I don't think it will be this fall.
00:42:08.680 I don't think it will be this fall for one of many reasons.
00:42:11.680 But the following one is really important.
00:42:13.680 There's a series of provincial election happening this fall, including in British Columbia, where the NEP is in power right now.
00:42:19.680 And if anybody knows anything about New Democrats is that there's a lot of resources sharing.
00:42:24.680 There's a lot of human resources sharing.
00:42:26.680 There's a lot of the same election workers working from one part of the country to the other.
00:42:30.680 So if there's a federal election happening at the same time as one or two provincial elections, it creates a problem for the for the NEP machine.
00:42:37.680 So I think they will want to wait if there's a window that really opens up.
00:42:41.680 I think it's the next federal budget when the liberals don't deliver on X, Y, Z demand that the NEP will make.
00:42:47.680 Of course, the liberals will not negotiate in good faith with the NEP because they cannot trust them anymore.
00:42:52.680 It'll be interesting times, Carl.
00:42:54.680 Thanks so much for your time today and so so many of your insights.
00:42:58.680 Thanks for having me.
00:42:59.680 Full Comment is a post-media podcast.
00:43:01.680 My name is Brian Lilly, your host.
00:43:03.680 This episode was produced by Andre Pru with theme music by Bryce Hall.
00:43:07.680 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.
00:43:09.680 Remember, you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts and YouTube Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.
00:43:14.680 Help us out by giving us a rating, leaving a review and tell your friends about us.
00:43:18.680 Thanks for listening.
00:43:19.680 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.