Full Comment - Liberals can win with Trump’s foreign interference

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00:01:15.100 Canada did what? A podcast from Post Media uncovered the untold stories of the Canadian

00:01:20.800 history you might think you remember with me, Tristan Hopper. From one Prime Minister's crazy

00:01:26.360 camaraderie with Communists, to the war over metric conversion, and the harrowing reality

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00:01:40.740 I, Mark Carney, do solemnly and sincerely promise and swear that I will truly and faithfully,

00:01:48.020 and to the best of my skill and knowledge, execute the powers and trust reposed in me as Prime Minister.

00:01:55.360 Well, it's official. We have a new government in Canada, and soon we will get the election that

00:02:00.700 many people have been demanding for far too long, except the outcome may not be what those people

00:02:06.280 wanted. Hello, welcome to the Full Comment Podcast. My name's Brian Lilly, your host,

00:02:10.880 and today we're talking about Mark Carney. He's just been sworn in as Canada's 24th Prime Minister.

00:02:16.600 We are looking at heading to the polls in less than two weeks, and voters will be voting on a wide

00:02:22.260 range of issues, or perhaps just Donald Trump. To talk about all of this, it turned to two of the

00:02:27.960 great minds in the post-media universe to get some thoughts on this, both columnists with great

00:02:34.020 experience in dissecting what is happening in the political sphere. This is our conversation with

00:02:39.900 John Iveson from National Post and Lorne Gunter from The Sun. Well, gents, what's your verdict on the 0.51

00:02:46.920 Carney government? I mean, they haven't done much yet, have they? John? Early days, as you say.

00:02:54.460 But he's making the right noises. I'd say a change in tone, though, right?

00:02:59.100 Yeah, I mean, noticeable, and as the ministers came in, you didn't get head-to-head rubbing.

00:03:05.300 Remember that famous picture of Justin and Jodie Wilson-Raybould? Not the time that he devoted her,

00:03:11.060 but the first time he appointed her as justice minister, and there's that kind of image of,

00:03:15.760 you know, they were both weeping, and there was none of that. I mean, Carney's not touchy-feely in

00:03:20.900 the same way that Trudeau is, so it was a firm handshake or a, or I guess an air kiss.

00:03:28.700 Lauren, what are your thoughts on his tone from the swearing in, you know, that first press conference?

00:03:34.480 Well, the tone is different, but I don't see how this group of ministers is going to be all that

00:03:40.560 much different when it comes to policy on the ground than the group they replaced. I like the

00:03:48.080 fact that there are only 24 ministers instead of 34 ministers. I think that the federal government,

00:03:53.580 most governments, provincial governments too, have grown far too large over the last few years,

00:03:58.580 and that's, you know, so you're, you're satisfying regional and gender and all sorts of other

00:04:04.720 constituencies, but, but I think 24 is good. There are two ministers, if I read the list correctly,

00:04:13.420 two ministers from west of Ontario. Is that, is a very Toronto GTA heavy list. It is, it is,

00:04:23.260 and Carney has appointed himself the minister responsible for Alberta and the north. He hasn't

00:04:32.520 lived here since the early eighties. I cannot imagine a prime minister appointing himself the

00:04:38.900 minister for Quebec had he never lived there or hadn't lived there for the last 40 years. So

00:04:44.280 there's a lot of stuff that, that bothers me about this, but, but you and John are right. The tone

00:04:49.720 was better. There wasn't that, I don't know. Trudeau just had that sort of wishy-washy smarmy kind of

00:04:56.360 way of, of touchy feely talking and, and Carney doesn't have that. Now I'll, I'll say this. I thought

00:05:04.000 he did well with his questions that were put to him. They weren't softball, but they weren't, it wasn't

00:05:10.320 an aggressive encounter with the gallery. They had serious questions to ask. They asked serious

00:05:16.720 questions, but they were all questions he would have expected. You know, when will you meet with

00:05:20.980 president Trump? Why are you going to Europe? Um, things like that. Uh, but you know, I thought his

00:05:26.940 answers did okay. If he hadn't gone, I'd been asked about this on radio prior to the swearing in.

00:05:34.320 I said, well, what if he, the host said, what if he doesn't answer questions from the media? I said,

00:05:39.900 then his next encounter is going to be a very grumpy one with a gallery that already feels like he hasn't

00:05:45.660 been paying them much attention. Uh, John, this, um, new iteration, uh, of Mark Carney, uh, was

00:05:53.240 trying to explain to people the national press gallery that covers a politician is very different

00:05:58.320 than the people that show up to cover a bank governor's, um, news conference. The interactions

00:06:03.060 are very different. Do you want to take a run at that? Because you've done like me, you've done both

00:06:08.720 where you're in there and all the financial reporters are like our headwinds, blah, blah. And they just

00:06:12.880 write down all this jargon that the rest of us don't understand. And they have a nice back and

00:06:17.300 forth as opposed to with a prime minister at times, you can be hammer and tawn between the two.

00:06:23.000 Yeah. Much more genteel, um, on the financial side, I've been, I've done both. I covered finance

00:06:28.560 for 12 years. Um, yeah, I think he's going to have to get used to that. I mean, it doesn't surprise me

00:06:35.560 that he didn't hold regular press conferences during the, during the leadership. It was clear he was the

00:06:40.760 front runner. And if you're the front runner, why would you invite the prospect of falling flat

00:06:45.340 in your face? So, um, and I think, I do think that the, the big unanswered question still remains

00:06:51.600 this move by Brookfield South from Toronto, which he almost disowned, even though he was the chair

00:06:58.920 and clearly recommended it. Um, he doesn't want to talk about that. I mean, it had nothing to do

00:07:02.680 with it other than voting for it and asking shareholders. Yeah. So, um, so that doesn't

00:07:09.640 surprise me. The fact he's now taken them even, you, you kind of have to, do I think he'll do okay?

00:07:14.980 I do. Um, he was the bank of Canada governor, a bank of England governor during Brexit. And I've

00:07:20.940 also worked in the UK and the tabloids, particularly the tabloids that were pro Brexit are

00:07:26.640 merciless in a way that the parliamentary press gallery is not. And he had to, he had to

00:07:32.380 weather that. He was the, the kind of most hated man in England for a little while when

00:07:36.280 he, when he had come out against Brexit. So he's got some sense of what's in store for

00:07:41.360 him.

00:07:43.200 Lauren, the, uh, decision to go to Europe instead of going to Washington first, I think that's

00:07:49.860 a mistake. I know that there are hazards in going down and meeting with Donald Trump.

00:07:55.460 You never know what he's going to say, but you have to meet with him and deal with him at

00:07:58.260 some point. To me, it looks like Carney's going to Europe to collect allies for his rebel alliance

00:08:06.980 in his fight with Darth Vader. Uh, you know, he needs a Han Solo to go to with his, his Luke

00:08:11.160 Skywalker. Macron, Macron and Starmer have already been to the white house, bent the knee and, uh,

00:08:16.620 had very good meetings. In fact, Starmer was asked to stick up for Canada at the white house

00:08:21.680 and refused. So I'm not sure what he's trying to do. Yeah. You know, I, I, I don't think there's

00:08:27.860 any harm in him talking to other leaders first, uh, before he goes to meet Trump, but you can do that

00:08:37.400 on video conferences. You can pick up the phone. There's all sorts of ways. I think it's smart of

00:08:44.540 him to talk to Macron. Uh, I think it's smart of him to talk to Starmer if Starmer will talk to him.

00:08:51.280 Uh, I believe he's had an invite already. Yeah. Okay. So here you go. Let's talk to these guys who

00:08:57.460 have some experience with Trump and who are politicians because Carney is not yet fully a

00:09:04.900 politician. And so talk to them and then go see Trump. But to, to have a showy trip to Europe,

00:09:12.480 um, and, and I sort of kidded there a minute ago that he's going to renew his passports because he

00:09:17.640 has two European. Well, speaking as a European, as he once famously said, that that line will come

00:09:23.720 back to haunt him. Oh, I know that the ads have already been, been drawn up. Um, but yeah, I think,

00:09:31.160 I think it's okay to talk to these people before you go see Trump, but in the middle of this trade war,

00:09:37.180 which is fixating everyone in the country and rightly so, you maybe should go see Trump first.

00:09:45.120 Can I disagree with that? Yeah. I'll tell you why. Um, Trudeau went down to see Trump in Mar-a-Lago

00:09:51.620 before he was, for January 21st. And, um, I thought it was a smart move at the time. It seemed to be a

00:09:59.960 way to get in and get, get to know them. And LeBlanc was there and so on. But it was at that meeting,

00:10:05.580 if you remember that, um, they resurrected the 51st state line, which had never been mentioned in

00:10:13.240 the whole election campaign, the U S election campaign. And when it was Trudeau's response

00:10:18.140 that Canada would be devastated if, uh, if Trump put on tariffs, that I think fired his imagination

00:10:26.640 that this could be something that could happen. Do you think that that's what actually happened?

00:10:31.160 Yeah, I do. I do. That was, cause I've only, I've only heard that from the American side. Um,

00:10:36.720 I could see that being the answer. That would be a horrible answer for a Canadian prime minister to

00:10:40.900 give. Right. I mean, he basically should have kept his mouth shut. So, uh, I mean, I think the 51st

00:10:45.000 state thing was mentioned in the first Trump administration, but only as a joke, but I think

00:10:50.700 what sparked it was Trudeau saying we'd be screwed if this, if you did this.

00:10:55.580 Well, what, what's the old line? Many a true thing is said in jest. Right. Um, I think this

00:11:00.380 started off as a joke. Trudeau lost his freaking mind and Trump is a bully. So he sees that there's 1.00

00:11:07.720 a weakness there. He pokes and he pokes and he pokes and he pokes and he's kind of does it as

00:11:12.440 sort of a blowhard 19th hole, uh, old timey kind of golfer kind of thing. And he does it partly

00:11:19.240 because he's a bully. Uh, and it has grown into a real thing. When Trudeau said it was

00:11:24.580 a real thing back at that, uh, Canada, us, uh, summit thing he had in Toronto, I think

00:11:31.800 he was right. I think it has grown with Trump into a real thing, but it, it started off as

00:11:36.520 a joke three months ago and Trump has let it morph.

00:11:40.180 But my point was that, though, that, that, that, do we really want Carly to walk into the

00:11:44.680 same environment where he, I mean, to me, he demand some respect, hold out. And there

00:11:51.220 are already signs in the U S that, um, that the internal pressures are going to sort this

00:11:56.660 thing out. There was a good, there was a good tweet this morning from a Fox business correspondent,

00:12:00.480 Charles Gasparini. And he says, there's a lot of talk in Trump circles about the need for,

00:12:06.700 for a grand plan to resolve this tariff dispute with Mexico, Canada and Europe. Um, some kind

00:12:12.100 of deal that would, uh, a universal settlement that would act as a compromise and really as

00:12:16.960 a face-saving measure for Trump. I mean, I think at the moment the pressures will come

00:12:21.500 from down South and we need to be able to be flexible to give him that face-saving, face-saving

00:12:27.500 opportunity where he can, where he can just say, oh, it was all a joke.

00:12:30.080 And I think that that is part of what the meeting between Doug Ford, uh, Howard Lutnick

00:12:37.000 and the two federal ministers, Francois-Philippe Champagne and Dominic LeBlanc was about, they

00:12:42.640 were offering him an off-ramp and perhaps they got that meeting because of Ford escalating

00:12:49.300 it, which I, I'm always careful. You've got to be careful about when you escalate, when

00:12:54.680 you don't. But clearly they caught the attention of like, wait a minute, this is spiraling out

00:13:00.080 of control. The stock market's tanking. These guys are going to put the, uh, a hundred bucks

00:13:04.720 a month on people's power bills extra. We, we got to haul them down here and sure there's

00:13:10.740 some smack talk, but I think they've, they gave him the off-ramp there.

00:13:14.300 If you look at the stock market indices, the three major indices in the United States for

00:13:19.420 the first 50 days of every president's term since George Bush won in 2000, uh, there's

00:13:26.500 only one time that the stock market has done as badly as it has done under Trump. And that

00:13:32.160 was Obama and Obama came to power during the financial crisis. That wasn't stuff he did.

00:13:37.300 It was already in motion when Obama got sworn in and it just kept going down for the first

00:13:42.620 three months. Trump has done all of this on his own. He couldn't, he could, he could have

00:13:48.820 avoided every single percentage point lost off of the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ, if

00:13:57.240 he had simply not started this irrational, unprovoked war, but he has got it in his head

00:14:03.580 now that, that we, everyone else outside of the United States has stolen everything from

00:14:09.740 the United States.

00:14:10.760 He was sitting with the, he was sitting with the Irish prime minister the other day celebrating

00:14:15.140 St. Patrick's day and they said, is Ireland ripping you off? Yeah, they're ripping us off.

00:14:20.020 Have a cookie.

00:14:20.860 I've got the numbers for what Lauren's just mentioned. S&P down 8.18% in the past month.

00:14:27.000 The Dow Jones down 7.19%. The S&P TSX is only down 3.72%.

00:14:32.620 The NASDAQ is down close to 12 last time I looked.

00:14:35.180 It is.

00:14:35.800 I mean, it's, it's, the pain is being felt not in Toronto, but in New York.

00:14:41.740 Exactly.

00:14:42.600 So to get back to when Mark Carney should go visit him, does he visit him before or after

00:14:47.160 calling an election? Because I think we're all hearing the same thing. Election call by

00:14:52.120 March 23rd, voting at the end of April or first week of May.

00:14:56.300 Yeah. Well, I think he doesn't, he doesn't go down and he has the election when he goes

00:14:59.840 down with a mandate when the internal pressures have forced Trump to stop. Talking all this crap. 0.99

00:15:08.380 Lauren? 1.00

00:15:08.820 Yeah. I don't see how he can go down during an election. He has to call an election soon

00:15:16.220 or he has to face parliament, which he can't do because he's not an MP. But you know what

00:15:21.680 I mean? There's going to be opposition. They're going to be, they're going to be assembled.

00:15:25.020 They're going to be asking questions. The gallery will all be there. And, and there'll be a kind

00:15:31.200 of scrutiny he's not probably used to yet. So I think he calls the election within the next,

00:15:36.460 whatever, 10 days where we were, the 24th is when they're supposed to come back. Today's the 14th.

00:15:41.680 So within the next 10 days, I think we're into an election. The Ritz get dropped and away we go.

00:15:46.840 And I don't think once he's done that, that he can go down and see Trump. But, but who knows?

00:15:53.860 I mean, Doug Ford did in the middle of an election campaign, different circumstances. He already had

00:15:59.280 a mandate and was seeking another mandate early. It worked for him. Do the liberals

00:16:06.220 just copy and paste Doug Ford's Ontario election campaign strategy into their own binder and say,

00:16:13.280 here's what we're going to do. We, we need a mandate to deal with Donald Trump.

00:16:18.780 Well, I think all they'll talk about, if he's got, if he's smart, I mean, Carney, if he starts 0.94

00:16:22.620 talking about clean energy or, or, you know, the military, his military plan, it sucks. It needs to be

00:16:30.300 updated and everything moving a lot faster. But if he starts, but if he talks about Trump

00:16:34.580 all the time, I mean, I think the conservatives have been caught on the back foot. They're,

00:16:39.520 they're talking about, they've got a 2024 campaign. It's basically about the carbon tax

00:16:44.300 and about, basically about Trudeau and things have moved on. We're in 2025. And when you talk

00:16:51.640 up when people are polled about Trump and who's more likely to roll over to Trump, um, between

00:16:58.520 Kualiev and Carney, Carney wins every time. Well, he wasn't recently in a Leger poll that they did

00:17:04.660 for us at Postmedia, but the most recent Abacus data one and Abacus, uh, released this on Friday.

00:17:12.380 Uh, their vote intention numbers are 38% for the conservatives, 34% for the liberals, NDP down at 15.

00:17:20.620 And when you look at who's moving over, uh, it's Atlantic Canada, uh, Quebec and Ontario. So

00:17:29.440 ahead in Quebec, uh, pretty much, um, tied in Atlantic Canada and Ontario with the conservatives.

00:17:38.480 And then the liberals losing everything West. We'll get to your, uh, grumpy self about that in a few

00:17:43.860 minutes, Lauren, but, um, uh, but it's also older voter, older, uh, voters, boomers are, are moving 0.79

00:17:51.300 over in larger numbers to, uh, uh, to the liberal. People are nostalgic for the economic nationalism of

00:17:57.820 his daddy. But on, uh, who, who is best, they asked who's best to deal with Trump. 42% said Mark

00:18:06.280 Carney and the liberals to 28% Pierre Polyev and the conservatives. And then on every other issue,

00:18:12.160 except climate change, the, the conservatives are in the lead, even on healthcare. It's 30%

00:18:18.320 for the conservatives, 29% for, uh, the liberals, but on housing, cost of living, immigration,

00:18:25.760 uh, crime, uh, security and employment that the conservatives have a decent lead on every issue.

00:18:32.440 But none of that matters. I don't think any of that matters. I think we've gone from the politics

00:18:36.260 of anger to the politics of reassurers. People want to be reassured that somebody who knows how

00:18:42.260 these great machines of trade and commerce work is in charge. And I don't think that probably,

00:18:49.420 I mean, he may, if they can get Carney's negatives up, then it's a whole new ball game. But at the

00:18:56.000 moment, the trajectory is all in favor of Carney.

00:18:58.420 How does it feel to be a Westerner right now? And, um, looking at this happening,

00:19:02.900 Eastern Canada changing its mind again, Lauren, we were, we were absolutely convinced that we're 1.00

00:19:07.880 going to be done with those damn liberals. And, uh, it looks like Trump is going to have saddled us 0.99

00:19:14.520 with them again. Uh, and I, and I don't think there'll be an immediate national unity problem,

00:19:22.300 but as well, look, look, who's basically the second in command in the cabinet. Now it's Stephen

00:19:29.820 Giebel. He's no longer the environment minister, but he's the Quebec lieutenant. He's in charge of

00:19:34.260 heritage. He's going to do for free speech what he tried to do to the oil and gas industry. Um,

00:19:40.340 he's going to pump up the CBC. We're going to get after, after the election, all those issues that

00:19:45.520 you talked about. If they win, if they win, always remember voters are fickle, polls can change,

00:19:50.800 campaigns matter. Yeah. Yeah. And, and I think, uh, Tristan Hopper, uh, a couple of months back

00:19:57.920 had a very good piece about Kim Campbell and John Turner, who took over from unpopular prime

00:20:06.740 ministers, immediately got big bumps in their, uh, in their popularity. They, they were,

00:20:13.980 Kim Campbell was, was polling as high as any leader had polled for the previous 20 years.

00:20:19.220 And yet she got wiped out. Her party ended up with two seats in the election four months later.

00:20:24.240 Um, the liberals aren't stupid. They've, they've seen this. They saw it with Turner. They've seen 0.85

00:20:29.200 it with Campbell. And they know if they even wait a couple of months and make Kearney govern,

00:20:34.840 that they run the risk that he will pan out as a dud too. Uh, and, and he will lose big time. So

00:20:42.120 they're going right in. They're going while the, the Trump stuff is hot. Like I, I, I don't fault them

00:20:47.320 for their strategy, but, uh, I don't, I never have liked Donald Trump in the last month. I've

00:20:54.200 started to hate Donald Trump. And if he foists a liberal government on us again, uh, I will really

00:21:00.920 hate that. Uh, let me ask you about something, uh, that's specific to Western Canada. Cause if I

00:21:07.900 don't, I'm sure I'll get a nasty emails. Uh, hearing a lot of frustration, uh, premier Scott

00:21:14.060 Moe, former premier, uh, Brad wall, both of out of Saskatchewan, um, saying, why is nobody talking

00:21:20.740 about the Chinese tariffs? And why is there no national unity crisis about that? I mean, I might

00:21:25.960 say, uh, China is not threatening to take us over, but they are trying to take us over. Uh, but I mean,

00:21:32.340 what do you do about those, uh, tariffs a hundred percent on canola on peace devastating for farmers?

00:21:38.840 Hopefully they can find other markets for their, uh, their product. But I mean, those tariffs came

00:21:45.400 from China as retaliation for our tariffs on Chinese goods. And if we didn't tariff those Chinese goods,

00:21:51.740 um, the Biden administration was threatening us, nevermind Donald Trump.

00:21:56.340 Yeah. And if, and if you thought Justin Trudeau was cozy with the Chinese, just wait till you see 0.99

00:22:03.920 Mark Carney. Uh, Mark Carney has spent much of the last, um, at least the last 10 years, probably

00:22:11.300 closer to 20, uh, uh, making overtures to China, uh, being appointed to, to Chinese boards. Uh, like,

00:22:19.880 I think he might be able to do something about that because he's too cozy with the Chinese. 1.00

00:22:25.560 But, uh, but yeah, these are issues that bother people in the West and are completely ignored in

00:22:35.000 Ottawa. Um, I'm not sure that there's any good way of doing it. I used to be a, a triple E Senate

00:22:40.840 advocate. You know, we had to have equal and elected Senates and that was going to change. I, I, I don't

00:22:47.040 think that would really do too much either. Um, over time it might, but you know, I, these are just

00:22:54.720 issues that we are always going to have to be disappointed on in the West because look at,

00:23:00.360 look what's happened. So I, I, I knew China was going to retaliate and I'd like both of you on

00:23:05.740 this. I thought that they would have said, Oh, well, the, the liberal government in, in Canada,

00:23:11.500 uh, relies a lot on Quebec hit them with tariffs on pork because a lot of the pork production comes

00:23:17.600 out of Quebec. Uh, they went with Western, uh, products that are specific to Western Canada. Is this

00:23:23.240 an attempt to foster, uh, um, you know, um, separatist sentiment or trigger national unity

00:23:31.320 crisis? I think they need Quebec's pork more than they need Saskatchewan's canola. I mean,

00:23:35.580 I just think it's, it's that simple. John. You know, I, I, every morning I get an email

00:23:41.920 from a, from a guy I've developed a relationship with, a farmer in Alberta. He's telling me that

00:23:46.180 canola markets are down, are up $4 a ton this morning, but $73 down or 11% since Monday.

00:23:52.880 I mean, you can imagine that causes massive resentment. I mean, the government in Ottawa

00:23:58.320 can, can say to itself, well, we're utilitarianism. We're doing the most good for the most number

00:24:03.700 of people by, by trying to save jobs in the car market. But yeah, I mean, there's a lot

00:24:09.600 of people working agriculture in agriculture and it clearly, you know, clearly one thing

00:24:16.680 led directly to another and the government did it in the full knowledge that this was likely

00:24:22.220 to happen. So yeah, I can fully appreciate and sympathize with people who are resentful

00:24:28.480 about that.

00:24:29.380 All right. Well, we'll take a quick break here. And when we come back, we want to talk

00:24:32.080 about the pending election and where each of you think things are going more in moments.

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00:25:36.620 What are the new technologies that will change aviation?

00:25:40.940 Well, hydrogen would be one for sure if we got there. I mean, hydrogen is not just a alternative

00:25:45.960 fuel. I mean, hydrogen would change it significantly if we ever managed to break the back of that.

00:25:51.200 Today, I'm speaking with Kalen Rovinescu, the former president of Air Canada and a trailblazer

00:25:58.620 in global aviation. Join me, Chris Hadfield, on the On Energy podcast.

00:26:04.540 Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

00:26:06.880 So as we head into the election, there's a lot of interesting things happening in the background,

00:26:12.460 and that one being, Mark Carney flew to Toronto the other day, just after being elected, selected as

00:26:20.580 liberal leader, and he had breakfast with Doug Ford. And both he and Ford made sure that there were

00:26:26.240 photos and video released of this encounter that people saw that they were getting along together.

00:26:34.540 Doug Ford and Pierre Polly have, I can't say they have a bad relationship because they have no

00:26:39.320 relationship. And I had a lot of people reach out and say, is Doug Ford endorsing Mark Carney?

00:26:48.140 Now, officially, they will tell you no. Oh, no, that's not happening. But to start off the election

00:26:53.820 campaign with a guy who just won a third mandate, who's pretty popular in the most populous province,

00:27:00.140 and who should be on the blue team with Pierre Pollyev, that's bad news for Pierre.

00:27:05.720 Yeah, well, I mean, it's not only that the two leaders don't connect, but I know their teams are

00:27:13.140 not fond of each other. So, yeah, that's a kind of strange one. But, I mean, you would expect the

00:27:20.820 incoming prime minister and the premier of the biggest province to be on the same page on this

00:27:26.500 particular issue. You need them to be. And I think Ford's been terrific. I think when he went down

00:27:31.820 to Washington and made his speech there talking about, you know, let's draw the borders around

00:27:37.400 the continent, not merging countries, but, you know, become even former allies. I think he hit all

00:27:45.700 the right notes in all the right places. I mean, the number of times he's been on Fox TV, he speaks

00:27:50.280 Republican. Yeah. And he's been a great asset to Canada, I think. So, no great surprise that

00:27:57.920 anybody coming in would say, well, let's utilize this guy because he's probably our best weapon.

00:28:03.820 But I'm not sure that Pierre Pollyev and Doug Ford have even had a phone call together. I'm not sure

00:28:09.480 that they've talked to each other. And when Ford won his re-election, Michael Barrett, Eastern

00:28:15.700 Ontario MP, quite like Michael, great guy, but he was asked in a scrum or a news conference on

00:28:22.640 Parliament Hill, you guys haven't said congratulations to Ford's team, have you?

00:28:27.820 Why not? And he couldn't even bear himself then to say, well, congratulations to them. There's that

00:28:32.960 much of an animosity. The two campaign managers, Jenny Byrne in Poliev's case and Corey Tanike in

00:28:40.460 Doug Ford's case, they're actually very good friends. But it's just everything else, it's like

00:28:47.320 oil and water. Does this hurt Pierre, Lauren? Yeah, for sure it does. I mean, I think Doug Ford

00:28:55.120 meeting with Mark Carney was an awful lot like, you remember in the 2012 election, Hurricane Sandy blew

00:29:06.420 through New York and New Jersey. Yeah. And the governor of New Jersey, who was a big time Republican,

00:29:16.440 Christie, Christie, Chris Christie, met with Obama on the shore while they're talking about federal aid to

00:29:24.700 rebuild and things. And it was seen as a tacit endorsement. I don't think it was, but it turned

00:29:34.780 Obama's polls around. Obama did not have great polling numbers going into his second election.

00:29:40.280 And Christie's endorsement seemed to turn that around. I think Doug Ford has done the same thing

00:29:46.740 for Mark Carney. He's made it acceptable to people who vote for him in Ontario. And that's a broad

00:29:52.520 cross-section because he's not a particularly conservative conservative. He's made it acceptable

00:29:59.100 for people who vote for Doug Ford to think also about voting for Mark Carney. And that you add to that the fact

00:30:09.700 that Pierre Polyev's strategy was to wait quietly in the weeds for the liberals to self-destruct.

00:30:21.320 And then he would come out big time in the campaign this fall and collect on all that. That was a good

00:30:29.520 strategy when Justin Trudeau was the leader of the liberals. But as soon as Trudeau goes,

00:30:36.960 and now that Trump has thrown in the trade war, that has become a bad strategy because nobody knows

00:30:45.060 they don't know what he stands for. When the liberals or the protecting Canada ad, people say

00:30:52.920 he's just a Trump, he's just a Trump clone here in Canada. Most people don't have anything to say.

00:31:01.580 No, he's not. So he gets tarred with Trump at a time when Trump is as hated as he's ever been in

00:31:08.820 Canada. And yeah, so I think Ford was giving a tacit endorsement to Carney.

00:31:15.160 I don't think people really get the importance of these tacit endorsements. And I remember

00:31:19.340 when the, whichever campaign, was it 2019 or 2021? Because Trudeau was behind and kind of behind

00:31:26.720 in both. But then Obama came out. Was it 2021?

00:31:29.320 Oh, in both, I believe.

00:31:30.840 But there was one where Obama came out and it was a tacit endorsement or it was an explicit

00:31:36.060 endorsement for progressives to forgive Trudeau. I think it was 2019 because it was blackface. 1.00

00:31:41.220 2019.

00:31:42.000 Yeah. And so I remember when the thing came out and they were, the Trudeau folks were delighted.

00:31:48.640 I was on the bus at the time and they were just delighted because it was like a sort of

00:31:54.000 thumbs up to progressive voters that they could go back to Trudeau. And they did. And this,

00:31:59.020 you know, I mean, Ontario voters don't need a lot of encouragement to elect a conservative at

00:32:04.280 Queen's Park and a Liberal in Ottawa. I mean, all through the Harper years, McGinty was in

00:32:10.680 power and the Liberals were in power at Queen's Park. It's, it seems to be the accepted way

00:32:14.660 of doing things. So that is not nothing.

00:32:18.060 I think federally we are headed for the equivalent of Ontario's McGinty-Winn election, the transition

00:32:26.580 there. Winn should never have won. She was, she was unpopular. The McGinty government was

00:32:32.420 unpopular and they should have been wiped out.

00:32:37.000 But so Lord, just on that, you know, the history of those transitions is not great. You look

00:32:42.520 at Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, you look at Kretchen and Martin, and as you say, McGinty

00:32:48.260 and Winn. But the difference is Carney was not part of that government. And I know they keep

00:32:53.420 trying to say that he was an advisor to Trudeau. He was a very, very arm's length advisor.

00:32:59.760 He was very busy moving his Brookfield headquarters from Toronto to New York at the time. He was

00:33:05.820 not, he was not.

00:33:06.180 And making money off, making money off toll roads in Lima.

00:33:10.540 Right. So, so it's like, it's kind of a different beast, I think, than.

00:33:13.920 It is, but it's, it was one where the Conservatives thought they were going to win. They were sure

00:33:18.860 they were going to win. And in the end, they got beaten by Winn. And that flummoxed them.

00:33:26.480 I mean, they didn't know what to do. And I think that we are headed for perhaps the same

00:33:30.960 side. You know, you, when you look at the polls, the Conservatives are still slightly

00:33:34.440 ahead, most places. And, and in the big number places, I think it's head to head. But this,

00:33:44.920 like when you talk, Brian talked earlier about the abacus poll that showed Carney is way ahead

00:33:53.220 of Polyev on who would you like to deal with Trump. And then on every other issue,

00:33:58.180 the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals. They're going to come to power. If they come

00:34:03.400 to power again, the Liberals are going to come to power. Trump is going to have to back off because

00:34:07.900 the oil industry in the States is against them. The agriculture industry is now getting to be

00:34:12.660 against them, except for the dairy industry. The, the stock market is nuts against him. And it is

00:34:19.140 purely his fault. And he'll have to back off. We'll get the trade thing settled. And then you get four

00:34:26.580 years of Trudeau redo with, with Carney, who is crazy on his policies are insane on crime. His policies

00:34:37.900 are nuts on budget.

00:34:39.480 He brought in David Lamedi as an advisor. David Lamedi is the man that brought in C5, which

00:34:46.160 got rid of mandatory minimum sentences for second and third convictions on gun smuggling. And I remember

00:34:56.240 the news conference where he announced it, he portrayed it all as, well, this is to help young

00:35:01.500 men who might have a youthful indiscretion. No, by the time you've been convicted a third time for

00:35:07.640 smuggling guns across the Canada-US border. Uh, that's not a mistake. Uh, you're a criminal,

00:35:13.140 but that, you know, I, I could see that coming a mile away because when Lamedi first ran, I started 0.79

00:35:18.700 reading his academic profile and this is right. He was a law professor at McGill. This is right within

00:35:26.600 where he would be. Uh, the, if, if, if Trump backs off soon though, you know, we're talking April 28th for

00:35:36.140 the, um, election or May 5th. My understanding is it may go to May 5th because they don't have a lot

00:35:41.580 of candidates right now, the liberals, the conservatives and NDP are ahead of them in

00:35:45.440 nominating candidates. Uh, so they may, may need an extra week to have everyone in the game.

00:35:51.560 If in that time, the Trump issue is mostly settled and we're headed towards a, uh, another NAFTA

00:35:59.580 renegotiation. Does that change this equation? I mean, Trump is the only thing that has changed,

00:36:05.960 uh, since, you know, Trudeau left. Trump is the only issue. So if, if he dissipates,

00:36:13.260 what does that do to the campaign? I think you, you, you hit the nail on the head. That would

00:36:19.600 completely transform it. I think the trajectory at the moment, I can only see one outcome

00:36:24.640 if things say the way they are, but, um, yeah, I mean, as you point out, if he keeps

00:36:32.120 poking the bear, I think it helps the liberals win. Well, I don't think he's been poking the

00:36:36.760 bear to be fair to him though. I mean, I could, I could see why it might be in his interest

00:36:40.200 to do so, but I think it's, that's just too dangerous. No, if he, if he keeps up on tariff

00:36:45.720 threats and talking about 51st state, which he's been doing. Sure, sure. I thought you meant

00:36:51.220 Carly. No, no, no. I, I mean, if Trump keeps poking the bear, we're going to have a liberal

00:36:56.300 majority. Yeah. Which I, I, you know, I, I, when I was down in Washington interviewing Steve Bannon,

00:37:02.420 I told him that and he said, yeah, that could happen. I've told the Breitbart guys that, uh,

00:37:06.980 all kinds of them. And I think that's part of why you're seeing Ben Shapiro, a major conservative

00:37:11.980 commentator in the state say, Hey, hold on a minute here. Maybe we want to rethink what's going on.

00:37:18.380 Well, do they really care who's prime minister up here? I don't think they care that much as some

00:37:23.520 of them do. Yeah. I don't, yeah, I don't think that like I, I was surprised how deeply the trade

00:37:32.520 issue had pierced American voters awareness, uh, because of course we're all aware of it. Absolutely.

00:37:41.500 But I wasn't sure that Americans were, but, uh, I spent four days in the States last week

00:37:47.860 and didn't, people didn't know who I was or why I was there. But as soon as they found out that I

00:37:54.580 was a Canadian, they would say, Oh God, I'm so sorry. We're doing this to you guys. I, and I was

00:38:00.340 surprised by the level of understanding they had about what Trump was doing and they apologized for

00:38:05.500 the president. And then we moved on to other topics, but, but they know, I think, and I think

00:38:11.000 it's not just, uh, that the knowledge that they are the ones that are going to pay the tariffs. So

00:38:17.500 it's not just, uh, a self-interested, uh, economic thing. There is a sense of an acknowledgement of

00:38:25.700 Canada's relationship with, with, um, with the U S and 9 11, world war one, two Korea, Afghanistan.

00:38:35.320 And there was a great clip. Uh, I don't know if you saw it, but there was a, a, a gentleman in North

00:38:40.300 Carolina at a meet the candidate or a meet the, uh, representative meeting where he, he asked him

00:38:46.760 yes or no about Canada. And, and it was just the, the whole crowd that were there were disgusted with

00:38:55.440 what is happening to Canada. And I don't think it was an economic issue. I think it's a sense of

00:38:59.600 a fairness issue. They think fair that it's being unfair to their closest ally.

00:39:05.700 Okay. So Trump is the number one issue. Would you be able to turn that around? John earlier,

00:39:10.940 you mentioned getting negatives up on Kearney, the conservatives, uh, speaking to them the other

00:39:16.880 day, they said they've got the biggest ad buying Canadian political history going right now.

00:39:22.760 In fact, they better get it out the door pretty quick.

00:39:25.020 They said it's already out the door. Um, and I've seen the ads on TV. Um, I I'm, I'm just

00:39:32.220 on social media to post things. So I don't necessarily see the ads. Um, but my understanding

00:39:37.980 is they're all over social media. They're on digital platforms, like all of the post media

00:39:42.140 newspapers there. Um, you know, if you're playing Xbox, you're going to see an ad if you meet

00:39:47.220 the right demographic. Can they actually turn this into being about Mark Carney saying he's just

00:39:53.280 like Justin? Um, yeah, I, I think they can. I mean, especially if, if the heat is turned down on,

00:39:58.080 uh, on, um, Trump or if Trump turns the heat down, uh, I did see an abacus poll, which suggested

00:40:05.360 that Carney's, uh, negatives are rising. He's still in plus territory as in more people, um,

00:40:12.620 liking the note like him. Yeah. Yeah. I saw that graph and it showed both the, the negatives and

00:40:17.660 the positives going up on a, a similar trajectory because nobody knew who he was. No. And you know,

00:40:24.320 to some extent he's benefited from the fact that everyone can project onto him because he's a blank

00:40:29.480 slate. Everyone can project onto him what they're hoping for in a leader at the moment. And to be

00:40:35.160 Frank, Pierre Poliev has never warmed people. He is not, uh, a warm kind of guy. And I, I would say

00:40:44.980 that, that his team's desire to, uh, have alliteration on everything or, or, uh, you know, carbon tax

00:40:56.340 carny, this cheat carny, you know, they, they try to have these catchy little phrases that this is not a

00:41:02.420 time when that, when that catchy little stuff works, you need to be serious. You need to show

00:41:07.780 that you can take over this negotiation with the United States and do at least as well as people

00:41:14.480 think carny will. The other thing though, that works for the conservatives on their favor is I

00:41:19.400 expect that a, a, a person who is an untutored, well, not untutored, but certainly an unprofessional

00:41:25.840 politician is going to have a flub or two. He's going to do something like he did where he said in

00:41:31.520 Kelowna that he would use the federal government's emergency powers to, uh, push through an East West

00:41:38.200 pipeline. Well, he made it sound like that, but he didn't actually say it. He just made it sound

00:41:43.280 like it. Okay. But that, but it's going to get analyzed. And then he went to Quebec and he said,

00:41:47.600 no, no, no, no, no, no. We'd never do that to Quebec. Well, he's just appointed Stephen Giebel

00:41:51.800 as his Quebec left hand. Do you actually imagine there's going to be a pipeline that goes across Quebec?

00:41:56.500 There will not be a pipeline. And, and if this becomes an issue, if we, you know, if, if we Canadians

00:42:03.400 are looking to have a more, uh, uh, a stronger economy internally and, and with exports to other

00:42:12.420 countries, we're going to need pipelines. If, if Poliev can make that an issue and Carney and Giebel

00:42:18.460 can be seen to be clashing on that, there are things they can do. But right now that is not where

00:42:23.780 the trajectory is going. After that breakfast with Doug Ford, Mark Carney hopped into, uh, the SUV

00:42:29.480 and drove to Hamilton for a news conference, uh, a bit of a speech, sorry, not a news conference

00:42:35.600 because he didn't take questions, but he spoke to steel workers said he would have their backs

00:42:39.000 as he was leaving. He media are there, refuse to take questions. They had the RCMP blocking them.

00:42:46.740 Those are the sorts of things that you can't do. He will face more aggressive questioning. Uh,

00:42:51.900 and then there's the question of the debates. Um, it was funny after the, uh, French language

00:42:57.460 debate, um, of course he, he's got Ottawa bureaucrat French. He can get by in a meeting,

00:43:07.140 but I was watching, uh, CBC's coverage, uh, after the French debate and they said, well,

00:43:13.600 it won't really matter because his French was good enough. And then the French reporters come

00:43:18.700 out. And the first question is, can you handle yourself in a debate with, uh, with Pierre

00:43:23.040 Paulyevre and Yves-Francois Blanchet? Is he going to be able to handle himself in either

00:43:28.500 English or French against three very professional politicians?

00:43:33.600 I would say yes. And, and here's my reasoning for that. Yeah. I mean, let's say we don't know

00:43:41.280 because we, because we haven't seen him, but my suspicion is that, uh, all that training

00:43:46.520 that he's had, particularly as the governor, the governor of the Bank of England, Bank of Canada,

00:43:49.800 you don't speak off the cuff. You don't say the wrong thing. You are very disciplined in what

00:43:55.800 you're saying. So he's got message discipline. Otherwise, you know, you're playing with,

00:44:00.780 playing with markets. And during Brexit, he got absolutely mauled by the tabloids for getting

00:44:10.340 involved. Now he was called to a parliamentary committee, so he had to answer questions,

00:44:13.780 but in doing so, he made it clear that he didn't think Brexit was a great idea. And then

00:44:18.580 he became public enemy number one and he got roasted for weeks and months. So yeah, he does

00:44:24.920 have experience. I mean, and, and both of you know, the British tabloids are not, uh, are not

00:44:31.360 delicate flowers when it comes to this stuff. So I, you know, it would really surprise me if

00:44:37.700 he flubbed it in a campaign that he just couldn't cut it in a campaign. He's been at the highest

00:44:43.560 levels of, uh, public life for the last, what, 15 years. You do learn to think before you speak.

00:44:54.500 Lauren, what do you think of him in a, in a debate, English or French?

00:44:58.960 He will have, um, he will have Trudeau's people, uh, who he's inherited as his campaign

00:45:05.360 types, uh, prepping him for all of this. Uh, I would never say he's a dumb guy. I think he's a 0.98

00:45:12.720 far more extremist person on environmental issues than, than he lets on, but he has a very calming

00:45:19.640 face in front of, uh, he has a very good mask in front of his environmental issues. Like for instance,

00:45:27.440 if you look at his work on the Glasgow financial alliance for net zero, GFANS, uh, it's, it is

00:45:37.420 ridiculously, uh, environmentalist and lefty. Well, yeah, I was laughing that he went to

00:45:43.500 DeFasco because he wants to increase the, uh, industrial carbon price that would move production

00:45:49.840 from Hamilton to Arcelor Mattel's, uh, plants in Detroit and Ohio. Of course it would. Of course

00:45:56.160 it would. And you know, this is completely off the topics we're on now, but one of the things I've

00:46:00.920 been wanting to mention for, for weeks now, since Trump keeps talking about how he stole all their

00:46:05.380 jobs is under Dalton McGinty, 200,000 manufacturing jobs moved to the United States because of what he was

00:46:12.880 doing with the green energy act and electricity input costs for manufacturers. Um, you know, this,

00:46:20.300 this has been happening ever since, uh, NAFTA that our manufacturers have moved elsewhere, not always

00:46:27.840 to the United States, but often to the Northern tier States because it was cheaper to work there than it

00:46:34.040 was here. And, and what, what Carney is doing is the same thing. So I don't trust Carney to go to the

00:46:41.220 United States and, and negotiate with Trump because he can't get away from what he's done for the last

00:46:47.160 10 years full time, which is all of the green initiatives, his net zero. Okay. But does any of that

00:46:54.000 matter when we're talking about swing votes? No, it doesn't matter at all. That's what, that's why it

00:46:57.640 animates me so much. You cannot sit down in Minidosa, Manitoba and explain to ordinary, intelligent,

00:47:05.080 interested voters. You can't sit down in, in a short period of time, explain why Mark Carney

00:47:10.940 is at least as green as Justin Trudeau. But why I was saying it doesn't matter is if Trump is the

00:47:19.040 issue, then none of those other campaign issues will matter. It will just flood everything out. And

00:47:24.980 that's the only thing people will vote on for the swing voters. Anyway, his public utterances so far

00:47:31.000 have, uh, have been very muted and what Lauren's talking about. And I don't disagree with him,

00:47:35.860 uh, with, with Lauren about what he, what he's just said, but thus far Carney has, you know,

00:47:42.540 when he spoke, when he won the leadership, he started talking about, uh, clean and conventional

00:47:48.180 energy. So, you know, he's keeping in there the idea that we're going to be building pipelines and,

00:47:53.860 and exporting propane and natural gas, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, Gibbo, when Gibbo was,

00:48:00.980 the environment minister, he wouldn't even support natural gas as a bridge to cleaner energies.

00:48:07.620 He, he, he saw natural gas as equally the enemy as, uh, as heavy oil, which boggles the mind.

00:48:13.740 And coal. And coal. It was all the same to him. Uh, I don't think Carney's there, but it's certainly

00:48:19.680 in his public utterances so far since he won the leadership, he has played down the environmental

00:48:25.040 side. And I think quite rightly, because we're hardly going to be, uh, boosting our emissions

00:48:30.920 if we're all driving around embedded buggies. Yeah, exactly. All right. So, uh, what's your

00:48:37.160 prediction for when the, uh, the election gets called, Jen? Well, we'll ask you each, uh, uh,

00:48:41.620 that, and then do you have a prediction for the result or is it far too fluid?

00:48:47.680 I think you've already called it on the dates. It's the 28th or the 5th, I think. I mean,

00:48:51.960 he could go back to parliament. I think the NDP would eat themselves whole to, uh, to avoid an

00:48:58.260 election right now because they are. What they've told me is that they would back him

00:49:02.440 for like passing EI reform and a package for this, but nothing else. And they, they swore

00:49:08.680 up and down. I cannot believe that. Would you, would you want to go to an election when you

00:49:12.440 look like you might not even have official party status after it? They backed him if he

00:49:16.620 wanted to get rid of the income tax. Trust me, they would back him on damn near anything

00:49:20.280 right now, just to keep working. Campaign to kill the Canadian beaver, the NDP. 0.99

00:49:24.060 Yeah, exactly. Exactly. There they are. Some polls have them at 11%. It's, uh, yeah. 0.96

00:49:29.580 We haven't seen that. There'd be Jagmeet Singh saying, I've always wanted a beaver hat.

00:49:34.040 Yeah. So they could, he could negotiate with them, but he will not negotiate with them. I can

00:49:39.360 guarantee you. I, I, I don't see it. I, I don't, I don't see parliament coming back. Lorne?

00:49:44.300 No, I don't see that. I think you're, you're both right. It's either the 28th of April

00:49:48.540 or the 5th of May. Uh, and I don't think that Donald Trump can back away from what he's

00:49:54.480 done fast enough, uh, for it to affect the outcome of the election. I think we're going

00:50:00.600 to be very close to, uh, a majority for one of the parties or the other. I think it's going

00:50:07.760 to be quite tight. Uh, but, uh, but I do think at the moment, if the, if the momentum, and

00:50:16.300 I don't talk about polls, I'm talking about momentum, if the momentum keeps swinging the

00:50:19.920 way it is, you're going to end up with a liberal government. Uh, you know, if, um, if Donald

00:50:25.500 Trump does what he did for Doug Ford, which is have an explosion of statements, uh, about

00:50:29.700 tariffs every couple of days, uh, it could be a massive liberal majority government, the

00:50:35.120 way things are going. I mean, let's remember as well, if it's a conservative minority, they

00:50:41.180 probably ain't going to last very long. Well, but look at, look at Harper's, look at Harper's

00:50:45.260 first government. Nobody thought they would find a way to survive, but they survived for

00:50:49.880 over two years because Harper and his team were very masterful at carving off each one

00:50:56.940 of the opposition parties to support what they were doing just long enough to move on

00:51:01.220 to the next issue. So who knows? I was there in 06 and I had, uh, liberal MPs telling me

00:51:08.460 they'd be back in power in a couple of months and, uh, it was nine years. So we

00:51:14.100 shall see. It was great fun, uh, chatting about this with you gents. Uh, we're going 0.98

00:51:18.500 to have plenty of political fodder to, uh, write about in the months to come. Thanks

00:51:22.060 so much. Very good. Thank you. Full Comment is a post-media podcast. My name is

00:51:27.020 Brian Lilly, your host. This episode was produced by Andre Pru. Theme music by Bryce

00:51:31.300 Hall. Kevin Libin is the executive producer. You can subscribe to Full Comment on

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Full Comment - March 17, 2025

Liberals can win with Trump’s foreign interference

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