00:01:48.340And today, something different, a standard political panel, but with anything but standard guests.
00:01:53.380Jenny Byrne is the former campaign manager of the Conservative Party of Canada and owner of Jenny Byrne and Associates.
00:02:01.460Kim Wright is a longtime NDP strategist and the owner of Wright Strategies.
00:02:06.820And Warren Kinsella, longtime liberal, was out of the fold for a while, appears to be back in now, runner of many war rooms and the man behind the Daisy Group.
00:02:18.480So what do we make of the new NDP leader?
00:02:22.040Let's do a quick around the table with that.
00:02:25.000And, of course, we'll start with you, Kim.
00:02:26.600You were in Winnipeg for the convention.
00:02:30.400Well, you know, Winnipeg is always fantastic, especially in March.
00:02:35.260Look, Avi Lewis got a lot of votes, something like 78% of the vote.
00:02:44.300It was nearly 80,000 New Democrats voted online or in person.
00:02:50.100We had 2,000 members at the convention. So, you know, thoughts that the NDP is dead and buried are greatly exaggerated. So good news from that perspective.
00:03:02.780I think that there is, you know, there's always these moments in politics where parties seem to die on the electoral vine and then come back.
00:03:12.580You know, we saw that in the Conservative Party when, you know, after Kim Campbell and it was just Jean Chaudet and Elsie Wayne and came back.
00:03:21.100The New Democrats have done that as well.
00:03:24.040So I think we're still early days on what does an Avi Lewis leadership actually look like, because campaigning is different than when you get the job.
00:03:34.020But I would also like to say my condolences to the Lewis family over the death of the giant and legendary Stephen Lewis.
00:03:42.020That is not only a loss for the Lewis family, but, you know, frankly, humanity in general.
00:03:49.260Absolutely. Condolences to the family for that.
00:03:52.080The question of Avi Lewis, though, Jenny, your party is now facing off against someone who, unlike the Liberals, does see the affordability issue as something that we need a solution to.
00:04:07.340The Liberals don't seem to be interested in that issue all that much.
00:04:11.120So you've got competition for the Conservatives now.
00:04:13.680Very different answers than what Pierre Paulyev and the Conservatives will put forward.
00:04:17.460But in talking about a government-run grocery store and government-run cell phone company and internet company and government banking through Canada Post, economically illiterate as far as I'm concerned, but populist and might work. What are your thoughts?
00:04:33.820I guess we'll see. The jury is out on that. I think that it is economic lunacy as well. I think that Canadians are going to see through most of these policies, and as they're announced, they're going to be shredded, not just by other political parties, but of members of the media and economists across the board in terms of how these don't work.
00:05:01.740We're seeing kind of a trial balloons in Toronto with Olivia Chow announcing a government-run grocery store pilot, as well as the mayor of New York City, who has other issues we don't need to belabor.
00:05:21.940So I think the jury is out in terms of that.
00:05:25.780What I found in watching it, this is a party that definitely has picked a lane.
00:05:31.140This is not the party that I recall when I first got involved in politics or the backbone where union were very much members of the of the union.
00:05:41.160There didn't appear to be a lot of reach out to what you would call the blue collar unions and trying to win those votes back, which we've seen kind of bleed over the last 10 years.
00:05:53.440And so I think that's going to be also an interesting, the NDP have definitely seemingly picked the lane and it's not going back to the days of Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton.
00:06:06.180Warren, your thoughts on Avi Lewis? I know you used to go on his TV show many years ago on CBC.
00:06:13.840Yeah, it's hard to believe CBC actually tolerated debate at one point, but they did.
00:06:19.660so he had a show called counter spin a million years ago and i was uh somebody that they would
00:06:25.600call to go on the show and um you know i knew he was a new democrat and all that stuff all of us
00:06:33.520did but he was likable you know and very engaging guy very media savvy um and you know he wasn't
00:06:43.760doctrinaire and he didn't over talk us. And he was a good guy. He was likable. And so I've been
00:06:52.220a little bit surprised, you know, further to Jenny's point, you know, what is he doing? Like
00:06:57.460some of the things he's said during the leadership race are crazy, you know, and some of the things
00:07:04.060he said about Judaism and Zionism are awful. And I was watching him and I'm like, has he changed
00:07:36.480So, um, maybe that's what he was up to, but you know,
00:07:40.780whether his party is nutty or not, we also all know that, you know, people vote according to
00:07:47.340party affiliation and leader. And this leader has been handed a gift by Mark Carney. You know,
00:07:53.580Carney has shamelessly stolen planks and ideas from Polyev's Tories, and he's gotten away with
00:08:03.540it to a large extent, but that's created a lot of real estate. Pierre does keep telling him,
00:08:08.600please steal my ideas yeah so that creates a lot of real estate though just in terms of the
00:08:13.880so-called ideological spectrum it creates real estate for the ndp to grow in and uh you know
00:08:21.900get out of this rump situation that they're in so i you know i know him and i like him you know and
00:08:28.560uh he's uh he's a likable guy i think he's better at media than i think people realize because he
00:08:34.420He grew up in this political media family.
00:08:37.280I think he'll be very good with the media, Kim.
00:08:40.040A few things said there I'd like to get your response to.
00:08:43.340The policies, you know, I don't think something like the government-run grocery store is something that he just threw out there.
00:08:51.180It seems to be having a moment on the political left right now.
00:08:55.720New York, Toronto, and now the federal NDP.
00:08:58.720uh it's the type of thing that uh i i think a lot of voters would say well it'll lower my
00:09:05.760my bill so i'm behind it whether it'll work or not that's another matter so what are your
00:09:12.120thoughts on that and and something that jenny alluded to the issue of uh the fight for blue
00:09:19.480collar workers um you know the conservatives have made a lot of inroads in places like hamilton
00:09:24.320Timmons, Windsor. They followed to a degree Doug Ford's playbook that he ran provincially. He did
00:09:31.580the same thing. Is the NDP just giving up on blue-collar voters? No, not at all. And, you
00:09:39.980know, there's a couple of parts to that I want to unpack a little bit. You know, the joke is that,
00:09:46.620you know, Canada is five telcos, three grocery stores in a trench coat, right? Like, so maybe
00:09:53.520we do need to shake things up a little bit. We'll see if this works. But at some point,
00:09:57.940you have to try new ideas instead of just complaining about them all the time. So let's
00:10:02.060give this a thought. I think there's a lot of details to be worked out, as we all know,
00:10:06.760of how this might work. But, you know, let's see what that looks like. Because Canadians
00:10:10.780are, pardon the pun, starving for a new way in which we get access to groceries and how farmers
00:10:19.040can sell product directly to Canadians. So there is something to explore here.
00:10:25.440One of the things that, you know, wherever you sit on the political spectrum, people like
00:10:31.260authenticity. And what they feel like they get from Doug Ford and Mark Carney, and now of Avi
00:10:39.100Lewis, is authentic. You may not like his policies, but you're like, you know what, I respect that you
00:10:45.560authentically are showing up and showing how you believe. It is the criticism of what we've seen
00:10:51.840on Pierre Paglia for years, right? Especially with blue collar workers. You know, he'll go out and buy
00:10:56.700a pair of work boots, forget to take the price tag off the darn things. Well, he's like, I'm out there
00:11:01.060with the people and their festivals, which was the most absurd quote I've ever heard from a Canadian
00:11:05.740politician in my life. But there we are. But people are looking for that authenticity. And I think
00:11:10.920when they start to see that, and they saw it with Jack Layton, and they saw it with Ed Broadbent,
00:11:15.200and they saw it with Stephen Lewis, you know, they're looking for that. And so I don't know
00:11:19.680how he'll play up in Northern Ontario, but I know that the morning after he was elected leader,
00:11:27.080he had breakfast with the head of the Canadian Labour Congress. There have been lots of
00:11:30.980conversations with Labour leaders and trying to unite those various access points. And more
00:11:39.280importantly, it's how do you talk to people not just in their leadership, but on the ground and
00:11:44.240showing up when it matters, not just when it's convenient. So one of the things I would say that
00:11:48.600to that, though, Kim, is people are people are looking for for something. And blue collar workers,
00:11:55.000which voted more for the Conservative Party in the last election than what they did for the NDP,
00:11:59.900what they're looking for is is stability, just like every other Canadian. And there are close
00:12:05.280to a million unionized workers in the different resource sectors in northern Ontario, in the
00:12:10.140mines in the oil sands. And these are not just for the core industries, but also for the
00:12:16.180industries that support them. There's a reason that Wab Canoe has a much different opinion than
00:12:22.220Abby Lewis. And you have two NDE premiers that have come out against his policies regarding
00:12:28.520that. So I think that there can be a lot of like, you know, quote, showing up when it matters. But
00:12:34.580What these what these workers are looking for, what these voters are looking for is is prosperity and paying their bills and enjoying life.
00:12:43.120And right now, the policies that Abby Lewis and in the past several years that the NDP espoused is essentially putting them out of putting these sectors out of work, putting and putting these blue collar workers out of jobs.
00:12:55.580Well, let's talk about infighting, though, within the party.
00:12:59.440um so immediately after avi lewis is elected naheed nenshi uh comes out and and distances
00:13:08.160himself uh and then carla beck so naheed nenshi obviously the leader of the alberta ndp carla
00:13:15.880beck leader of saskatchewan ndp says uh you know you got issues well we fundamentally disagree
00:13:21.940uh jenny you went through an election campaign where there were factions within the conservative
00:13:27.740movement fighting it doesn't help does it no the internal battles never never uh never help
00:13:34.420so i mean look there's going to be there's going to be moments in everybody's political family
00:13:39.840where they don't get along right brian you rightly point out right doug ford and pierre
00:13:44.180paliev are not besties they're not you know going shopping together um but you know these thing these
00:13:51.480these are part of the discourse and what good leaders do two pretty harsh statements though
00:17:41.740You know, because I, you know, I think most people don't even know how to spell the word, but it is an important word in these circumstances because, you know, in a minority parliament, minority legislature, you don't have control of committees in the way that you need to.
00:17:55.920I mean, look what happened to their budget bill.
00:17:58.020It got, had to ping around the system for weeks and weeks and weeks because they didn't have the control they would otherwise have in a majority parliament.
00:18:07.020So I think it, it'll be pretty consequential for them.
00:18:10.180Will it be of significance for Canadians?
00:19:43.160But on the prorogation, you know, a lot of people think, well, that means that you've got to shut down the House for months.
00:19:49.220I guess the way that Trudeau did when he resigned or Stephen Harper in the 08 crisis.
00:19:56.680But Louis Saint Laurent, Lester Pearson, and Pierre Trudeau all prorogued the House of Commons and started a new session the very same day.
00:24:06.320So I think it gives the new leader, it gives Alvi Lewis the time to build up those EDAs, build up those writing institutions, find those candidates, raise some money, because it's no secret that there's a little shortage of change in the NDP coffers at the moment.
00:24:22.880So getting an opportunity to build up that credibility with Canadians as well as credibility in our coffers is really going to be helpful.
00:24:31.820From a practical perspective, I'm not sure that Canadians will see a significant change in how Mr. Carney governs.
00:24:40.060I think it is a bit of vibes, especially for those who are around Ottawa and who cover Ottawa, about calling it a majority government.
00:24:48.120As I said earlier, he still will have to manage the business of the House.
00:24:53.420He will still have to manage who shows up to vote and who doesn't show up to vote and who's whispering the corridors and how deals might be done on the sidelines.
00:25:01.100So I think that this will give him a proverbial spring in his step.
00:25:05.760But practically speaking, we're not going to the polls anytime soon.
00:25:10.020Jenny, I've heard some conservatives say that for Pierre Polyev and the leadership around him, that Carney getting a majority might be a bit of a blessing.
00:25:22.460Just had a senior conservative saying that to me the other day.
00:25:28.640I don't think that there's an election any time coming.
00:25:31.060So I think time is definitely on the side for Pierre and for the conservatives.
00:25:35.640I think right now the Canadian economy is somewhat teetering, walking a tightrope, so to speak.
00:25:43.880And so there's a lot of expectations in terms of Carney and his ability to negotiate with Donald Trump and start to make changes on affordability, which I agree you said earlier, that seems to be very low down on this government's priority.
00:26:01.480I think, though, there will be proven to be frustration among the opposition.
00:26:06.280Majority committees, when the government has the majority, there is very little wiggle room.
00:26:11.780Right now, the opposition can band together and set the agenda.
00:26:18.500They can bring forward witnesses that are very unhelpful to the government.
00:26:23.500Once once that you have a majority in committee, then it's all driven solely by it is all driven solely by the government.
00:26:31.920They can shut things down. They can there's they can they control everything.
00:26:37.060And also just from a practical point of view, it means that conservatives will lose spots on the committee.
00:26:42.640And of course, they are plum positions.
00:26:46.080MPs all have the committees that they like to sit on. And with the majority, that takes away kind of a spoil, so to speak, that the leader has in terms of caucus management.
00:27:00.020And a little bit of extra money from those positions never hurts anyone.
00:27:04.000They would still keep. But just a committee membership isn't extra money. But people like the committee member, like, you know, there's a very large contingent of Western caucus members. The AG committee is one of the most asked and sought for committee within our party, for example. And so there's going to be one less person that's going to be able to sit on that committee. So that's from a practical point of view that will be a caucus management issue.
00:33:33.340leading among 35 to 54, that's Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives, 41 to 38, big lead among voters
00:33:40.28055 plus, leading among urban, leading among suburban, and very close on rural, almost tied
00:33:48.600with the Conservatives. So how do the other two parties represented here, not by Warren Kinsella,
00:33:56.640How do the Conservatives and the NDP shift those numbers?
00:34:01.300And I say that, Warren knows my saying very well,
00:34:05.300voters are fickle, polls can change, campaigns matter.
00:34:09.060But how do you do that right now when it seems that all that has to happen
00:34:14.780for Mark Carney is for Donald Trump to say something about us
00:34:17.760or start a war or, you know, irritate Canadian voters somehow
00:34:23.140and Mark Carney's polling numbers go up?
00:34:25.820How do you how do you fix that, Jenny?
00:34:28.340Well, I think that the it's what we talked about earlier on on on the podcast, Brian, is that the number one issue for Canadians across all polls that we're seeing publicly is affordability.
00:34:44.000And so this has been a issue that Mark Carney is seemingly uncomfortable with.
00:34:48.480I watch Question Period almost daily, like some of us, I'm sure a lot of us, a lot of us do when they can.
00:34:55.820And it's the issue that he is most uncomfortable being asked in the House when he is challenged on this.
00:35:02.200And so the number one issue among Canadians is affordability.
00:35:07.620And that is an issue that the Conservatives lead on, that have led on.
00:35:13.280And that is an issue that they continue to talk about.
00:35:16.420So I think that it's extremely smart for Pierre and for the Conservative team to continue pushing those issues.
00:35:24.100It's Mark Carney was the one that said, you know, judge me by the cost of groceries around last year at this time.
00:35:31.320And so so those I think that that is the that that is what the conservative focus should be, is the the issue set as it is now, because I don't see it, unfortunately, for Canadians getting any better.
00:35:46.640And now you've got a bit of competition from Kim and the NDP there, though.
00:35:50.060You're going to be able to hold on to that issue.
00:35:51.660well i think well i think we'll see as as i said this has been the driving issue for
00:35:57.120uh pierre's uh leadership right back from way before his leadership he was the first person
00:36:03.100that was talking about inflation and all of the uh chattering class and uh a lot of the media
00:36:08.700types not i'm not saying all of them brian uh some of the media types were saying it was ridiculous
00:36:13.480it's going to be stagflation not inflation and so uh this is something that he has been uh he has
00:36:19.420absolutely been, he has been driving, he has been driving. And frankly, if Abby Lewis and the NDP
00:36:25.000stay on the populist track on the other side, then they're probably going to look at appeal
00:36:32.560to voters that potentially could be different. So where Mark Carney is now is he has the potential
00:36:38.340of being middled on both sides of the political spectrum. Kim, I remember Jack Layton's team
00:36:45.460coming into our offices on the Hill 2011 before the election.
00:36:51.860It was a couple months before, and they did their dog and pony show,
00:36:55.620and they said, here's why you folks, this is in the TV network days,
00:37:00.460here's why you folks at Sun News Network should make sure you cover us,
00:37:03.360and they detailed how they were going to do what Jenny just described,
00:37:07.620slicing away, said the conservatives are going to eat at the liberals
00:37:11.640from the left, we're going to eat at the conservatives from the right,
00:37:15.240We're going to slice away at the Liberals from the left.
00:37:19.580Is that part of what they have to do to get those polling numbers up?
00:37:24.220Do you think Avi gets a bump just for being a new leader?
00:37:27.020How do they turn it around and get it back up to 15% to 20% at least?
00:37:32.380And keeping in mind that the way our polling, the voter efficiency,
00:37:36.880and I know there are always people who roll their eyes when they say that,
00:37:39.640but there's a reason that Marit Stiles is the leader of the official opposition
00:37:43.280and Bonnie Crombie's out of a job, right?
00:37:45.140It does actually matter in a lot of places the way the NDP numbers shake out. But this will also come down to the leader and his authenticity, their ability to create movements and moments, and how do you make sure you're capitalizing on training those volunteers, getting those voters to come out and put their votes into the ballot box.
00:38:12.240the logistics of old school campaigning and an ability to pivot depending upon
00:38:19.240what's happening in the world. One of the things I think most conservatives I talk to
00:38:24.860continue to shake their head at is that Pierre Polyev never has really changed his message. I
00:38:30.860mean, if you give him the opportunity, he's still talking about acts and the tax
00:38:34.240and, you know, the variations of verbing the noun.
00:38:38.060The industrial carbon tax did just go up again.
00:38:40.260Right. But the way in which he's still fighting, you know, to, you know, the former prime minister and not the current prime minister, it kind of starts to wear thin.
00:38:51.540So what I expect to see from Avi Lewis and his team as they take leadership of the party is how do you do those grassroots organizing and also telling the story of why what the NDP did, in particular around dental care, has mattered to thousands and thousands of Canadians.
00:39:14.340It has transformed people's lives, and maybe that's not the case for everybody who maybe has a great insurance program, but most Canadians don't, and it has mattered immensely to people's lives. So the practical, as well as the organizing, as well as the authenticity, and that's kind of how you start to slice it, and having a plan, and having a program, and how you talk to all Canadians, not just a micro subset.
00:39:37.700that. Jagmeet Singh could not sell all the things that he was able to get out of the Trudeau
00:39:43.620government. So that's why I believe he has the job. We'll see if he's a better salesman. Warren,
00:39:49.740have you ever worked for a leader, prime minister, premier, that's been sitting at 40%
00:39:55.440looking towards 50? And is there a danger in that? Yeah, a little bit. I mean, certainly the
00:40:04.260danger for liberals always you know they're the most lethal element in their dna is arrogance
00:40:11.300right and um no liberals aren't arrogant what and you start to hang out with um yeah but you know
00:40:19.220all of them could be assholes brian like come on i'm sorry there's no monopoly on virtue but the
00:40:25.740for liberals it's particularly lethal um because they they're so often susceptible to it you know
00:40:33.560They've been in government more than anybody else at the federal level.
00:40:37.220And they do feel, you know, you saw this so often during the Trudeau era where they,
00:40:42.720they just felt that they had an entitlement to power and people, people
00:44:43.140Yeah, a long time. You're aging me, Brian. Yeah, well, what people are seeing is that is Pierre. He is very engaging. He is funny. He's extremely smart, very well read. And people are seeing that.
00:45:01.320He's also ruthlessly message driven. And in terms of his discipline on that, all of those things are true. So I think that people are seeing that. He's a likable, he is a likable person. And I think that's just one piece of the pie.
00:45:18.780I think that people are it's likable. And I believe the issue set is is going to is is in our favor, is in his favor, because he has predicted a lot of what has happened, because where we are right now is not because of factions fully in the U.S. or a war in Iran.
00:45:39.640these are from 10 years, 11 years of liberal government policies. And I think, Brian, where
00:45:45.260the rubber will hit the road, so to speak, for Carney, you were talking to Warren about this,
00:45:49.680is, you know, in July is the Kuzma negotiations. That's when they have to be completed. We're
00:45:55.560hearing, if you believe the media reports, that Mexico is 90 percent there in terms of their
00:46:00.360negotiation. There is going to be a number of mortgages that become due for renewal over the
00:46:08.180course of late summer and early fall where people's mortgages are going to increase a
00:46:14.140tremendous amount. We're already seeing it. We're all hearing stories, personal stories of people
00:46:19.920who are unable to pay their mortgages and rent is increasing in a number of places. And so I think
00:46:27.200that is when things will start to change in terms of where this government is. And I'm not sure that
00:46:35.200the liberals are prepared fully for that. I don't know why you say it's 10 years of bad policy.
00:46:42.320I heard directly from the housing minister that house prices went up because of the war in Iran,
00:46:48.300and the unemployment numbers went up because of the war in Iran. You know, they seem to try and
00:46:55.580think that they can get away with things. Kim, is that the type of arrogance that Warren was
00:47:01.340referencing that can be trouble for liberals oh absolutely and that and that is always the danger
00:47:07.140right when you the only thing you stand for is winning uh that becomes the challenge and then
00:47:13.160you'll say anything to keep that but Canadians voted for a banker in a good suit that's occasionally
00:47:19.860a bit dorky uh but you know what there's always a moment where you stop liking your banker
00:47:45.160An incredibly unpopular leader, in this case Mr. Trudeau, leaves and the new guy gets a free ride.
00:47:54.900For all of, you know, Rob Ford, Mayor Rob Ford's challenges when he was in office, you know, the only thing John Tory had to do was not do crack, right?
00:48:06.360Like there was way too much of a long leash that was given and a lack of accountability on things actually getting done to the point that the literal trains went off the TTC tracks in Scarborough and because of lack of state of good repair funding.
00:48:22.260So it's analogous potentially for the Kearney folks, and in particular, some of those ministers who tend to be charitably gaffe-prone under the bright lights, and that is going to be the challenge for managing caucus and cabinet and this government for Mr. Kearney.
00:48:44.800And it's going to be one thing when you can say, well, we're going to go to the polls soon, like, guys, keep it together, keep it in line.
00:48:50.860It's a very different thing when we all will recognize that we are into a government for the next couple of years.
00:48:57.980And then the danger for that for Mr. Carney, for Prime Minister Carney, is how do you manage that?