After the Budget, there's more excitement about floor crossing, more rumours, more resignations, and more. And meanwhile, we have a ratings agency warning us that if we don't get our house in order, things are going to get worse.
00:00:00.000Mark Carney has once again oversold and underperformed.
00:00:06.880He released his budget this week, one that he had, well, portrayed ahead of time as a budget for the moment.
00:00:14.680The next move is on Tuesday. The next move is the budget. It's the budget for this time.
00:00:20.140The budget the country needs. The budget that gives us control.
00:00:23.420But once the reviews are in, it was basically a general conclusion that this budget didn't live up to the hype.
00:00:29.420Hello and welcome to the Full Comment Podcast. My name is Brian Lilly, your host.
00:00:33.160And this week, well, we'll talk about the budget, but there seems to be more excitement about floor crossings, about rumors, about speculation, about resignations.
00:00:42.420The high school drama that is Parliament Hill has overtaken.
00:00:47.360And meanwhile, we've got a ratings agency that is warning us that, well, if you don't get your house in order, things are going to get worse.
00:00:55.160Joining me today to talk about this is Stuart Thompson from the National Post and Tasha Kearitan, columnist with the same set newspaper.
00:01:03.560Guys, I guess we'll start with the high school drama.
00:01:06.540I've long described Parliament Hill in the gallery as the high school cafeteria, but with salaries.
00:01:11.960And that seems to really have, well, lived up to its reputation this week, Stuart.
00:01:19.300Yeah. I mean, you come out of a budget usually excited to do more reporting on the fiscal numbers and what's going on with the deficit.
00:01:28.540Well, you and I do, and Tasha probably does because we're all nerds.
00:01:31.320A little, yes. I'm a bit of a nerd, too.
00:05:38.580He is not the guy who sees that, you know, this this should have been addressed way back when he was still the Trump whisperer and he had a lot of cred.
00:06:07.000And I'd like to hear from both of you on this is that they are well aware that the liberals are going out and throwing everything at their MPs.
00:06:16.840And, you know, one question I had is, you know, going back to the dolly walls and big comfy landings, anything illegal being offered?
00:06:26.920There is a line that you can cross with what's offered.
00:07:50.760He was, he was five percentage points away from the liberals.
00:07:53.460So I would say, but I mean, if you look at past right elections, the NDP and the liberals would split in that writing this time, the NDP disappeared.
00:08:03.760So it allowed the liberals to get within five points.
00:08:15.100You're not buying the story that his wife, who is a surgeon, is moving to Victoria to take on a new position with the hospital and the university there.
00:08:23.220Well, I would say maybe, I mean, we're getting into the world of pure speculation here, but maybe he wanted something from the liberals in terms of writings that they weren't willing to give.
00:08:32.100Um, so I, I think that there are just so many things to consider here that, you know, maybe there's only like five or six potential switchers in the conservatives.
00:08:43.580And if you were Pierre Polyev, the same way the liberals have to throw everything at those people to get them to switch, the conservatives are doing the same to keep them in their ranks.
00:08:51.400So there is quite a frenzy going on behind the scenes.
00:08:54.400Uh, Tasha, I mentioned, uh, Dominic Vien and, uh, Joe Godin, two Quebec city area MPs as possible switchers in the middle of the week, right after Don Tremont had moved.
00:09:06.140And both of them came out and like, no, no, no, no, we're not doing anything.
00:09:09.780Vien even putting out a video saying, and I don't even like Mark Carney's budget.
00:09:13.940So, um, do you think that they were targeting the, the Quebec MPs?
00:09:20.720Quebec MPs, because in the Quebec city area, it is a, uh, a very, it's the one conservative, you know, bright spot for the Tories in Quebec.
00:09:27.500So I don't, I don't see that would have been super smart.
00:09:30.100Um, you know, they, they've given inducements, like I said, in the budget itself, uh, one Quebec MP, uh, Gabrielle Hardy, they promised him an earth sciences center.
00:09:42.580They promised funding, um, for the new, uh, block MP in Quebec, Alexei Deschenes, actually a couple of big projects, um, in his riding.
00:09:50.220That would, you know, fall apart if this budget doesn't pass.
00:09:53.720Um, but, you know, it, it, would that be enough to, to induce these people and maybe with a couple of other sweeteners to say, hey, you know, you're going to shipyard.
00:10:06.440Um, I think that once the, once the Don Tremont thing happened, the conservatives though, like literally that's where they just put the screws to everybody because like, it's like they, you know, once the bleeding starts, they have to staunch it.
00:10:18.520And so, um, bringing down the hammer, uh, or offering people, I mean, they, they're not in a position to offer people things though.
00:10:27.320The liberals are, um, where I, you know, the fact Cardi's doing these things one-on-one again, yeah, it limits the circle of people who know, but is he the best guy to be doing this?
00:10:54.640Funny that he even got the pick, I guess, Scott Bryson, who had switched, uh, back from the liberals, the conservatives to the liberals back in the day.
00:11:21.580So at least you get three years of like, you know, good times, a car and a driver and like all sorts of good stuff and get to travel and, and be important.
00:11:43.080Uh, but I'd like your reaction to, to this breaking news, um, comes via X where everything is accurate, but conservative Nova Scotia MP, Randall Leahy from the riding of Sunnyvale Jayrock has announced that he's crossing.
00:12:07.960There is no riding of Sunnyvale Jayrock and there is no Randall Leahy.
00:12:11.420But someone posted a photo of Rob Webb, who played Ricky in Trailer Park Boys, put this out there and folks fell for it, including Sherry DeNovo, who was, you know, a new Democrat MPP in the Ontario legislature for years.
00:12:26.560Oh, look, this is, it falls, like, that's how crazy.
00:12:31.280But that's the, the reason, Brian, for that is that no, the Atlantic provinces are the ones that, that are the target, like the first ranked target.
00:12:37.700You ask about Quebec, the first ranked target, because that's a traditionally a liberal bastion, right, is, is Atlantic Canada.
00:13:29.020I said on radio, Bill, this is so crazy that I didn't even call or text Michael to ask him because it's not going to happen.
00:13:37.460An hour later, my phone rings and it's Michael Chon asking why I said on radio that he was crossing because someone approached him and told him I was that he was crossing.
00:13:47.260I said, well, this is just the rumor mill that happens in Ottawa when something like this starts.
00:13:52.540Yeah, there's an easy BS detector, too, with some of these Quebec MPs, because if you look at their writings, they're very conservative writings.
00:14:01.220And part of this is that Polyev's tone doesn't fully resonate in Quebec.
00:14:06.080So there is a problem a little bit with the leader, but that doesn't mean you go to the liberals.
00:14:10.100I think we have to remember that that's not the option for a lot of these people.
00:14:13.700And I just have to say this about Chris D'Entremont.
00:14:17.660He first ran, he's saying that, you know, it's Polyev's tone and his leadership style.
00:14:24.280I think it has more to do with the whole speaker thing, because when he first ran in 2019, the leader was Andrew Scheer, who's joined at the hip with Polyev now.
00:14:35.760And beyond being a staunch fiscal conservative, he's a SOCON.
00:14:44.400And so if you're going to be, you know, you're such a red Tory that you can't be with Pierre Polyev, how are you running with the ultra-religious Catholic SOCON of Andrew Scheer?
00:14:55.580Well, I mean, D'Entremont was also a provincial member of the MLA, members of the legislative assembly, for over a decade, right?
00:15:03.460He had a lot of political experience. Before that, I think he had a career as like a salesman and one other thing.
00:15:08.560I looked it up and, you know, he's been a career politician. So he probably expected more from the party.
00:15:14.720He would definitely go conservative federally. He would not go liberal after being a provincial progressive conservative.
00:15:20.740So he probably expected more from the party. And I think you're right. I think the whole speaker thing, I would be pissed off, too.
00:15:25.900I mean, it was a strategic decision because of the majority-minority situation that they're facing.
00:15:30.160They don't want to help the government get a majority. Why would they?
00:15:33.460But, you know, he had been deputy speaker. He was a talented guy. And he probably thought, this is what I get. And no, thank you.
00:15:43.120For people that don't know how sweet the speaker gig is, why would there be resentment? Well, what do you get?
00:15:49.640Oh, it's very sweet. You get a house, you get a wine cellar. In fact, everyone knows that the wine cellar is famous.
00:15:55.040I may have toured Peter Milliken's wine cellar after he left office and was a private citizen and saw all the stuff that he brought from when he was speaker.
00:16:04.840Lots of bottles of vodka from the Russian embassy. He, you know, you get all kinds of stuff as speaker. You get a beautiful home in the country. It's called the farm.
00:16:15.800You get a car and driver. You get an apartment in the parliamentary buildings. I guess it's not in Center Block right now. You get all these wonderful things and a nice pay pump. So, of course, you're going to want that. That is real self-interest there.
00:16:32.640Yeah, I think also, too. I mean, I have this incorrect impulse usually to assign all these things to ideology and principles and how people think. And that's where we go with the red Tory stuff. It's historically people who are progressive and maybe fiscally conservative, a Jean Charest type.
00:16:52.280But when you really get down to it, there's egos and there's personality clashes. And a lot of this comes down to, I mean, Stephen Harper has this reputation as being distant or cold, but he was very good at caucus management, listening to all of their concerns and making sure people were happy. And if you can't do that, this is the kind of stuff that happens.
00:17:12.440Yep. Well, it'll be interesting to see what happens next time. Look, it worked for Bill Casey. It worked for Scott Bryson. Others, they failed at it miserably.
00:17:23.500Didn't work for Belinda that well. That ended up well, but anyway.
00:17:27.500No, well, now she's, you know, outrunning a multinational, very rich company. So I think she's doing okay.