Full Comment - Mark Carney’s brittle image is cracking

00:00:00.000 Did you lock the front door?

00:00:04.060 Check.

00:00:04.620 Closed the garage door?

00:00:05.780 Yep.

00:00:06.300 Installed window sensors, smoke sensors, and HD cameras with night vision?

00:00:09.780 No.

00:00:10.620 And you set up credit card transaction alerts, a secure VPN for a private connection,

00:00:14.060 and continuous monitoring for our personal info on the dark web?

00:00:17.080 Uh, I'm looking into it?

00:00:19.600 Stress less about security.

00:00:21.360 Choose security solutions from Telus for peace of mind at home and online.

00:00:25.220 Visit telus.com slash total security to learn more.

00:00:28.800 Conditions apply.

00:00:30.000 Whether you own a bustling hair salon or a hot new bakery,

00:00:34.920 you need business insurance that can keep up with your evolving needs.

00:00:38.780 With flexible coverage options from TD Insurance, you only pay for what you need.

00:00:42.940 TD.

00:00:44.060 Ready for you.

00:00:48.820 Week three of the election is behind us.

00:00:51.220 It wasn't a kind one for Mark Carney and the liberals as they suspended their campaign again

00:00:55.600 after some difficult questions.

00:00:57.200 But as week three ends, week four begins, and we look forward to the debates on Wednesday and Thursday.

00:01:02.920 Hello, I'm Brian Lilly, and this is the Full Comment Podcast.

00:01:05.940 And as we've been doing throughout the election, we're going to break down what's happened,

00:01:09.920 look ahead to what might happen, or what the parties need to do.

00:01:13.000 One of the big stories that kicked off the beginning of week three didn't come from another political party

00:01:19.200 attacking Mark Carney and the liberals.

00:01:21.220 It came from bureaucrats in Ottawa telling the public that China is once again interfering in our elections.

00:01:28.700 They're putting forward evidence of a bunch of stories and coordinated activities on WeChat

00:01:35.500 by accounts tied back to the Chinese government.

00:01:39.160 Liberal leader Mark Carney asked about this, said he didn't know why China was backing him.

00:01:43.300 From understanding, you know, some of the campaign was pushing positive narratives about you.

00:01:49.060 Why do you think that China, the PRC, seems to like you?

00:01:53.560 Why are they praising you?

00:01:56.040 I have absolutely no idea, and I have absolutely no idea, and I think, well, I'll leave it at that.

00:02:03.780 Joining me now to talk about all of this are the two people behind the Political Hack newsletter from National Post.

00:02:09.500 Please do hit subscribe.

00:02:11.200 Stuart Thompson, the Ottawa Bureau Chief for National Post, and columnist Tasha Kieriden.

00:02:15.640 Was it a surprise to either one of you about China interfering?

00:02:19.100 I mean, we've heard about India interfering in the conservative leadership race, 0.99

00:02:22.280 but this is China again coming out and deciding, okay, this is our guy.

00:02:28.940 Well, the thing that I first thought when I heard about all this is it reminded me of the 2016 situation with Trump

00:02:36.060 when Russia was supposedly meddling in his favor in the election,

00:02:40.340 and it came out that actually they were trying to meddle in his favor.

00:02:43.340 But then when you actually dig down to what they were actually doing, it's weird stuff.

00:02:48.760 It's like memes and weird tweets and strange stuff, and I actually, you know, so that you don't have to,

00:02:55.240 I actually read this article that this was apparently boosted by the Chinese government on WeChat.

00:03:01.880 It's like one of them is a 2,000-word feature on Mark Carney.

00:03:05.220 It's just the strangest thing, and it's written really strangely.

00:03:07.780 It has good moments and bad moments, and if you were just reading that in isolation, you would think,

00:03:14.100 what are they trying to do here?

00:03:16.380 It's just the oddest thing.

00:03:18.400 And there was another article, much more flattering to Carney, that was boosted.

00:03:23.480 Millions of people apparently saw this.

00:03:25.280 But now, after the press conference this week and after the sort of public revealing of this,

00:03:32.780 these posts have gotten even more, they're going even more viral.

00:03:37.580 So you can actually see this is such a really interesting microcosm of the oddness

00:03:41.860 and the actual difficulty in responding to this to the authorities

00:03:45.300 because, you know, this task force, they've committed to being more transparent

00:03:48.960 and being committed to saying these things when they see them.

00:03:51.900 But you always wonder, like, you know, this would have flown under the radar pretty much

00:03:55.800 if they hadn't mentioned it, and now it's actually more public.

00:03:59.380 They have hard decisions to make, and a lot of this stuff isn't as cut and dry as you think it is.

00:04:04.300 Tasha, I read these articles as well, and some of them are just, well,

00:04:09.360 looks like a positive article you could see in Canadian media.

00:04:12.940 But it's the coordination in the background with, you know,

00:04:16.340 the ties to these organizations directly controlled by Beijing,

00:04:19.760 boosting them and pushing them, and that's the weird part.

00:04:24.200 Weird? Why is this weird? I'll tell you.

00:04:25.900 If I'm in the Chinese consulate, here's what I'm thinking.

00:04:29.180 The commission's report, the whole commission,

00:04:32.160 definitely raised the flag on foreign interference,

00:04:34.800 and the kind of interference that they were discussing was negative interference.

00:04:38.380 If you recall, in the last elections, interference against candidates,

00:04:42.420 slandering them on WeChat and Weibo, so negative stuff, comments being made,

00:04:48.600 designed to suppress the vote, this is the opposite.

00:04:51.940 So if I'm sitting there with Chinese consulate, I'm like, okay, what is not okay to do? 0.90

00:04:56.400 Slam, slander, attack, but promoting good stuff?

00:05:00.880 Well, how is that wrong? Right?

00:05:02.980 It's a bizarre, I'm just, I'm putting myself in your head.

00:05:05.060 They did the negative, they did the negative on Chrystia Freeland in January.

00:05:09.020 Well, they did in the leadership race.

00:05:11.380 And at the same time, as I just recently reported,

00:05:15.980 they have, at the same time, they were starting to boost Mark Carney

00:05:19.740 as early as the leadership race, so they slammed her and promoted him.

00:05:23.720 Right, they didn't need to slam her too hard. 0.99

00:05:25.200 She got, what, 8%?

00:05:26.340 So, you know, clearly, that was, they didn't really do much there.

00:05:29.100 Um, but, uh, I think with, yes, they did, they went negative on her in a leadership race,

00:05:34.800 right, where there is arguably less scrutiny.

00:05:37.660 Um, this is not a national election, there's scrutiny still, but

00:05:40.360 the Hope Commission, the interference in our electoral processes,

00:05:44.700 it was very narrow, right?

00:05:45.940 It was about Canadian elections.

00:05:48.180 And so there, you had things like nominations,

00:05:51.280 you had things like, um, you know, uh, actual elections during the rip period.

00:05:55.800 So, again, um, if I was a very literal bureaucrat in the CCP,

00:06:01.040 sitting there going, what can we do, not, what can we not do?

00:06:03.360 I would say, well, you know, promoting good things, how is that bad?

00:06:06.900 How is that, how is, you know?

00:06:08.300 So I, I know it sounds ridiculous, because it's interference one way or the other,

00:06:12.080 but you would, that will catch less flack for saying the guy's a good guy, right?

00:06:17.260 We're not telling people, we're not warning people not to vote for the other person,

00:06:20.480 we're just saying he's great, and we're amplifying that message.

00:06:23.600 So it puts the liberals in a bind, because they want to amplify the message,

00:06:28.220 he's a great guy, right?

00:06:29.680 They're not being, yeah.

00:06:30.400 Yeah, they're saying things like, he's a pragmatist, he's a realist,

00:06:34.560 he can reset China-Canada relations, ooh, that's bad.

00:06:38.040 Right, but this is, but this is the thing.

00:06:39.820 So it's a different, what they're doing is very clever,

00:06:43.140 because the liberals, you know, if the liberals come out and slam this and say,

00:06:47.300 well, we don't want good things said about us,

00:06:49.640 it's hard to say that with a straight face.

00:06:51.660 Plus, you want good things said about you.

00:06:54.080 So this is the problem.

00:06:55.460 I'm not justifying it.

00:06:56.660 I think it is wrong either way.

00:06:58.160 It is interference, but it's clever interference,

00:07:00.720 and that is why Carney, as a politician who's not very experienced,

00:07:03.500 I think is also not twigging to it.

00:07:05.680 He doesn't get it, unfortunately.

00:07:07.680 Do you remember that until recently he said,

00:07:10.840 I'm not a politician?

00:07:11.920 Correct.

00:07:12.360 This week, this week there was a report out from the Globe and Mail,

00:07:15.700 Bob Fives, Stephen Chase, I mean, we all know them, both superb journalists, thorough.

00:07:22.840 And it wasn't even the focus of their story,

00:07:25.360 but they pointed out that Carney, during the liberal leadership,

00:07:27.800 had met with these guys from an organization called the JCCC.

00:07:31.680 It's a group that's supposed to promote ties between Canada and China.

00:07:36.380 But it's also described as a proxy group for Beijing

00:07:40.440 associated with the United Front Works Department,

00:07:42.900 which is the Chinese government's agency for influence and intimidation outside of China.

00:07:49.680 So they report this, and Carney doesn't like being asked about China,

00:07:55.160 and he doesn't like being asked about his taxes.

00:07:57.100 We'll talk about that in a minute.

00:07:58.080 And here is his response to a woman from the Globe and Mail

00:08:03.240 who had to go and ask him a follow-up for her colleagues' questions.

00:08:07.640 So in your question, and I guess in the article in question,

00:08:11.080 you said I had a meeting with whatever your term was, Beijing Group.

00:08:16.340 I've never heard of this group, okay?

00:08:18.400 Never heard of this group.

00:08:19.820 Certainly didn't have a set-up meeting with this group.

00:08:22.780 Full stop.

00:08:23.480 So check your sources before you write things like that, okay?

00:08:26.880 Or your colleagues do.

00:08:28.080 Okay, so bad on several fronts.

00:08:30.500 I'll start with you, Tasha.

00:08:32.060 This is about the third time that he's gone really nasty on a reporter,

00:08:35.500 and each time it's been a woman.

00:08:38.100 Does that strike you as odd?

00:08:41.140 He's nastier to women than he is to men in terms of his tone.

00:08:45.920 And, you know, Rosemary, look inside yourself. 0.90

00:08:48.940 Things like that.

00:08:50.160 Line to me now, because, Mom, look inside yourself.

00:08:53.200 Literally, we had such a laugh over it.

00:08:55.520 It's stuck in our household.

00:08:56.800 Yes, he has been much more testy with female reporters.

00:09:01.260 I have seen that.

00:09:02.620 He's also been testy on the issue of China.

00:09:05.160 Again, I think this goes to not making excuses, but explanation,

00:09:10.900 is he comes from a world where, and a generation where,

00:09:14.320 people wanted to build relationships with China.

00:09:16.480 You know, the Jean Chrétien, Team Canada, let's go to China, David Johnston.

00:09:20.160 And the concept of elite capture was not discussed at the time the way it is today.

00:09:25.560 And so this whole thing of, like, well, you know, I was in the same room with these people.

00:09:29.500 I meet a thousand people at an event, and they take a picture with me.

00:09:32.140 That's basically just like you said.

00:09:33.540 Like, it's, you know, it's like, what's the big deal here?

00:09:35.260 What's the, where's the there there?

00:09:37.200 He doesn't get that there's the there there.

00:09:38.760 Because he doesn't have that frame.

00:09:40.660 He has to change that.

00:09:41.420 That's very worrisome, mind you.

00:09:43.260 The prime minister has to get that.

00:09:45.040 So he has to either get with that program,

00:09:47.120 or else he's going to have a problem with the United States,

00:09:50.460 as we raised before, who are not happy with China,

00:09:52.520 who are engaged in a trade war with China.

00:09:54.720 It will ricochet and rebound on us.

00:09:56.580 So he's got to get with that program and understand,

00:09:59.020 you're nice to China, or you excuse this stuff.

00:10:02.020 Washington is not going to be happy with you,

00:10:04.080 and the rest of Canada will suffer as a result.

00:10:06.900 Well, a couple of things.

00:10:08.060 If I can make a few points, and then I'll hand it back.

00:10:11.000 Sorry, that's my carny imitation.

00:10:14.980 I get your point of him being politician and taking pictures.

00:10:18.700 You know, as I said, he didn't use to call himself a politician.

00:10:21.000 Now he's a politician when he's asked about these photos.

00:10:23.860 And I'm always willing to forgive a politician

00:10:26.280 for these gripping grins where you don't know who the person is.

00:10:29.420 I was just up at the Canada Strong and Free conference,

00:10:32.420 saw Stuart walking through the halls.

00:10:33.880 He ignored me.

00:10:34.700 I waved.

00:10:35.220 But I was having people grab me everywhere.

00:10:38.440 You know, can I get a photo?

00:10:39.420 Can I get a photo?

00:10:40.220 Stop bragging, Brian.

00:10:41.820 Seriously.

00:10:42.040 I'm not doing a CSIS background check on these folks.

00:10:45.740 And that's what it is for politicians.

00:10:47.620 But if a whole group came up to me,

00:10:49.620 and they wanted photos in front of flags,

00:10:51.860 because he didn't just take photos with one or two of them.

00:10:54.700 There's a team photo with the whole group.

00:10:56.380 I might say, oh, who do you guys play for?

00:11:00.140 And he doesn't appear to have done that.

00:11:03.140 He said that he didn't know who this group was,

00:11:06.040 that he never met with them.

00:11:07.740 Immediately, Steve Chase tweets out photos.

00:11:12.380 Here you go.

00:11:13.120 I think that that's why he decided to suspend his campaign, Stuart.

00:11:18.920 I'd like your thoughts on that.

00:11:20.580 He suspended his campaign on Thursday,

00:11:22.500 went back to Ottawa to play prime minister,

00:11:25.020 saying Trump is doing something,

00:11:27.120 except Trump's actually being quiet.

00:11:29.560 So do you think it's, you know, one led to the other?

00:11:32.820 Yeah.

00:11:33.080 Sorry, Brian.

00:11:33.780 In my defense, I was missing a phone cable,

00:11:35.860 and I was highly focused on striding through the hallway

00:11:38.280 to go get one.

00:11:41.220 Apologies.

00:11:41.620 This, I think, is an interesting question

00:11:46.180 because I actually, my conspiracy theory on this

00:11:49.180 is that this was all planned.

00:11:51.840 So when the writ dropped,

00:11:53.080 they were thinking we're going to campaign a little bit,

00:11:56.360 then we're going to come back,

00:11:57.320 and we're going to look like prime minister,

00:11:58.960 and we're going to put the tie on again

00:12:01.000 and look serious,

00:12:02.620 and then we'll go out to some rallies,

00:12:04.020 and then we'll come back.

00:12:05.580 I think that is exactly what they were planning to do.

00:12:08.180 And part of the reason is

00:12:10.000 there isn't barely even a flimsy pretense for it this week.

00:12:13.380 Like, the first week,

00:12:14.440 there was some Trump stuff going on.

00:12:16.420 The second week,

00:12:17.500 the actual tariffs came through.

00:12:19.140 Like, that is a justifiable reason

00:12:20.680 to play prime minister for a couple of days.

00:12:23.380 This week, it's just,

00:12:24.700 we just wanted to do it, you know?

00:12:26.740 We don't have anything to do on a Friday.

00:12:28.640 Yeah, so, and I think you are right, though,

00:12:31.860 that one of the strategies,

00:12:34.120 one of the secondary strategies,

00:12:35.620 is that Carney is probably the frontrunner right now.

00:12:40.040 He's a newbie politician,

00:12:41.540 and the less exposure he gets on any given day,

00:12:45.600 the better for them.

00:12:46.780 So when I was on the trail with them,

00:12:48.860 15 to 20 minutes of questions,

00:12:50.540 and then they wrapped that up super quick,

00:12:53.140 and there was only one day

00:12:54.480 where they went a little longer,

00:12:55.660 and it wasn't much longer,

00:12:56.520 and I think, actually,

00:12:57.800 we just accidentally got local reporters' questions.

00:13:01.820 It wasn't even intended.

00:13:03.120 So they are wrapping this up

00:13:04.720 as quickly as they can,

00:13:06.000 and I think part of that strategy is,

00:13:08.640 you know, when you're playing prime minister,

00:13:10.140 you can do a two-minute media availability,

00:13:12.740 one minute in French,

00:13:13.860 one minute in English,

00:13:15.140 and then go about your business

00:13:16.420 because you're so busy at your cabinet meeting.

00:13:18.960 I think, well, that's exactly what he did.

00:13:21.120 Let's play that right here.

00:13:22.160 We had a good, long discussion on several aspects.

00:13:25.040 The first is the general situation.

00:13:27.760 In the last week,

00:13:28.640 there have been a lot of developments

00:13:30.120 in terms of U.S. tariff policy reactions

00:13:34.740 from others, including China,

00:13:37.140 really marked tightening in financial conditions,

00:13:41.140 the initial signs of slowing in the global economy,

00:13:45.520 impacts that we're starting to see,

00:13:48.400 unfortunately, in the Canadian economy,

00:13:51.000 particularly in the Canadian labor market.

00:13:52.520 We reviewed our response to those tariffs,

00:13:58.180 our core strategy to fight, to protect, and to build.

00:14:03.380 We left instructions for officials

00:14:06.380 to ensure that the next government,

00:14:10.420 whichever government Canadians choose,

00:14:12.660 will be in the best possible position

00:14:14.720 for negotiations with the United States,

00:14:18.000 which, as the president and I have agreed,

00:14:21.340 will begin from the start of May.

00:14:24.220 So he had a big cabinet meeting.

00:14:26.500 That's all he said.

00:14:27.320 We're working on things.

00:14:29.580 Okay.

00:14:30.300 Not even any questions.

00:14:32.040 Tasha, do you think that,

00:14:33.260 do you think that Stewart's right,

00:14:36.780 that they always planned it this way,

00:14:39.140 or that they looked at the last few days

00:14:41.220 being asked about his offshore tax havens,

00:14:43.500 being asked about China,

00:14:44.640 and they're like,

00:14:45.420 we should take this guy off the road

00:14:47.440 because it's not going so well?

00:14:49.840 I don't know if it was because of those things.

00:14:52.560 I tend to agree with Stewart.

00:14:53.840 I think that campaigns evolve, too.

00:14:56.100 You start out with a plan,

00:14:57.680 and then you do, you know,

00:14:58.600 events happen, and you have to adjust.

00:15:00.500 And I think what they're adjusting to

00:15:01.900 is the fact that he's not a good politician right now.

00:15:04.580 He needs a ton of practice,

00:15:06.120 and some people don't have that natural ability

00:15:08.920 to, you know, speak in shorter soundbites

00:15:11.900 or, you know, be that friendly with every,

00:15:15.120 like, smile when they don't feel like it.

00:15:16.720 Like, he's, you know, he's new to this,

00:15:19.260 and it shows big time.

00:15:20.820 So I think they realize that more and more

00:15:22.600 as the campaign's gone on.

00:15:24.700 So the strategy, which I agree,

00:15:26.260 was probably play prime minister.

00:15:28.840 You know, it's great.

00:15:29.920 It definitely helps them.

00:15:30.800 It gives them a boost.

00:15:32.180 And then, you know, adjust and mix it up accordingly.

00:15:36.920 I will be as cynical as to say

00:15:38.320 they did that this week on purpose.

00:15:40.140 But if they did, it was smart.

00:15:41.440 I mean, they have that luxury, right?

00:15:43.700 He's got that card to play.

00:15:45.000 He can be prime minister

00:15:45.880 because he is prime minister.

00:15:47.640 Polyev does not have that card.

00:15:49.320 So if I was a strategist,

00:15:50.660 I'd be like, sure, let's play that card.

00:15:53.200 I think that, though, he can't abuse it

00:15:55.180 because you're right.

00:15:56.000 If there's no reason to,

00:15:57.180 people will start to say,

00:15:57.980 well, that's pretty thin.

00:16:00.020 Yeah, you're hiding.

00:16:00.760 So it has its limits as well,

00:16:04.560 but it does shield him

00:16:05.840 from the nitty-gritty and day-to-day.

00:16:08.080 And, you know, it's interesting.

00:16:08.880 Radio Canada, who I also comment for,

00:16:11.320 my second love politically here,

00:16:14.180 apart from the National Post,

00:16:15.600 they did a tally of how many questions

00:16:17.940 all the candidates answered.

00:16:19.860 And they said that

00:16:20.880 Pierre Polyev's answer the least, about 80.

00:16:23.940 Carney's answer double that, 160.

00:16:25.800 And then Jagmeet and Singh and Pierre-Yves-François Blanchet

00:16:31.660 were off the charts.

00:16:32.400 They were, like, over 250 or something.

00:16:35.100 That's because they have to,

00:16:36.120 they're trying,

00:16:36.620 they're fighting for media attention.

00:16:37.820 The other guys are hiding it.

00:16:39.300 Exactly that.

00:16:39.860 They're like, less is more, right?

00:16:43.120 And so, but, you know,

00:16:44.560 the conservatives are the actual worst on that.

00:16:46.620 So Carney's end up in the middle.

00:16:47.920 I, uh, after having done this for as long as I have,

00:16:53.620 I don't like really long-use conferences

00:16:55.440 where the questions go on and on,

00:16:57.040 because eventually I'm like,

00:16:58.260 okay, we've heard enough from you.

00:16:59.380 I want to go work.

00:17:00.420 I need to write.

00:17:01.460 And I need to pick which of these 15 topics

00:17:03.640 you've talked about.

00:17:04.900 So, you guys may differ.

00:17:07.260 I agree.

00:17:08.200 But that's the way I am.

00:17:09.780 He's too short.

00:17:10.300 I think the Polyev four questions is a little.

00:17:13.380 That's too short there.

00:17:14.540 Yeah.

00:17:14.640 He, he used to do five and Trudeau did 15 minutes

00:17:18.080 and it would work out to about five questions

00:17:20.460 because of the repeat everything in English and French.

00:17:23.940 Uh, but yeah, Carney is going on longer

00:17:27.080 and, uh, and with more questions.

00:17:29.860 But, you know, we saw some of those coming out

00:17:34.040 about his investments.

00:17:35.420 The other issue that he's very touchy about,

00:17:37.900 um, this week it was Grand Cayman.

00:17:41.820 He, uh, he has, uh, we knew about the two funds in Bermuda

00:17:48.580 and then I don't know if it was CBC or CTV broke the story.

00:17:53.040 One of them that there was a third one

00:17:54.920 and it's in a building that Barack Obama once complained about

00:18:00.880 as home for tax cheats in the United States.

00:18:03.880 I think this is from 2011 where he's calling it

00:18:07.040 the biggest tax scam ever.

00:18:08.420 On the campaign, I used to talk about the outrage

00:18:10.760 of a building in the Cayman Islands

00:18:12.140 that had over 12,000 business, businesses

00:18:15.420 claim this building as their headquarters.

00:18:18.700 And I've said before, either this is the largest building

00:18:21.500 in the world or the largest tax scam in the world.

00:18:24.700 Yeah.

00:18:24.940 So back then it didn't have as many.

00:18:26.380 Now I understand it's 18,000 businesses

00:18:28.840 registered at this one address.

00:18:31.060 Uh, it's like the one in Bermuda.

00:18:32.660 It's above a bike shop.

00:18:33.780 There's a, that's the home of a $50 billion fund.

00:18:36.340 He doesn't like answering those questions.

00:18:39.420 I asked him about his personal taxes for a column

00:18:42.320 I wrote for the Sun this past week.

00:18:44.280 And I just said, look, uh, from 2020 through 2024,

00:18:47.600 which country did you pay your personal income taxes in?

00:18:52.300 Not asking how much he made, how much he paid,

00:18:54.040 just which country, which I think is a valid question.

00:18:57.440 He worked all over the world, lived all over the world,

00:18:59.740 has three passports.

00:19:00.780 So if you're going to be all elbows up for Canada, tell us.

00:19:03.900 And they just said, Mark Carney follows all the rules.

00:19:07.380 Uh, doesn't tell you much.

00:19:09.500 Can you really be elbows up when you move your company headquarters

00:19:13.080 to New York city, you register your companies in Bermuda

00:19:15.520 and Cayman islands, and you won't say where you pay

00:19:18.020 your personal income taxes.

00:19:19.520 Tasha, I see you smiling.

00:19:20.860 Oh, you know, you're doing a Paul Martin on him, aren't you?

00:19:23.640 Uh, your ships are registered in Panama and, uh, using,

00:19:26.520 you're moving money offshore.

00:19:27.620 You know what?

00:19:28.060 Here again is where Mark Carney, the business guy, um,

00:19:32.300 butts out against, but butts up against Mark Carney, the politician,

00:19:36.380 because in the business world, this is not an unusual practice.

00:19:40.760 Um, they're, you know, moving your head office so that you can qualify

00:19:43.760 to be on a particular stock exchange, but you're not transferring actual people.

00:19:47.720 It's just, it's a paper, it's an office, an address is routine business.

00:19:51.740 Having these companies registered in this particular building of the 18,000 there,

00:19:55.880 the reason is because there is a company that has its office there

00:19:58.680 that registers companies for this particular location.

00:20:03.380 And that's the off the address they give it.

00:20:05.660 And, uh, you know, I, I seen companies who've done this, um, having, you know,

00:20:10.160 been in the consulting universe and it is, it is following the rules.

00:20:13.400 It is nothing where Canada allows people to do this.

00:20:16.020 So does the U S there's nothing bizarre about having 18,000 things.

00:20:19.060 It might sound like it to the average person.

00:20:20.500 And this is why Carney looks at this and goes, well, why are you asking me this?

00:20:23.720 Because like in my world, in my world, this is fine.

00:20:26.960 But the politician, I agree with you.

00:20:29.280 Politicians are held to a different standard and that's where the problem is.

00:20:32.600 He's got to learn to say, if he can't say he pays his taxes in Canada,

00:20:35.360 you can pretty much bet he didn't.

00:20:36.800 Right?

00:20:37.100 Like omission lie by omission or say nothing by omission.

00:20:41.540 So he's got to get better.

00:20:43.420 He's got to get better at dealing with this and, and either owning it or saying,

00:20:49.220 you know what?

00:20:49.780 But yeah, uh, as a politician, I'll do differently or I will, you know, he could make it,

00:20:54.340 he could do a lot of things, but he is not handling it well.

00:20:56.760 I agree.

00:20:57.440 Or, or stop saying companies need to pay their fair share.

00:21:00.960 And then another benefit of moving the company headquarters, um, to New York city, by the

00:21:05.960 way, is a change in tax to American taxes.

00:21:09.100 So the company is paying less tax in Canada now, um, because of that they're paying less

00:21:14.380 tax because the funds are in Bermuda or Grand Cayman, maybe standard practice.

00:21:18.280 But when you're lecturing saying, you know, companies need to pay their fair share, we're

00:21:22.620 going to increase taxes on companies.

00:21:24.340 That's a really bad message.

00:21:26.160 Well, that's the disconnect.

00:21:27.640 That's exactly what I'm saying is that he has to become the politician as opposed to

00:21:31.020 still, uh, you know, accepting, you know, he has, he has to reconcile the two yet.

00:21:36.220 There is a way to reconcile the two, which is I, you know, when I did this, I was this

00:21:39.820 and now I'm this.

00:21:40.660 And, and I, you know, I agree companies that pay their fair share and that's why we need

00:21:43.480 to reform the tax code.

00:21:44.920 That's all he needs to say.

00:21:46.240 I agree.

00:21:47.000 I think, you know, we should, I've seen these rules and you know what?

00:21:50.060 Yeah.

00:21:50.360 I think we should reform them.

00:21:51.760 He doesn't have to say what they'll do, but he has to have that instinct to like pivot.

00:21:55.460 He doesn't have a pivoting instinct.

00:21:57.200 Communications 101.

00:21:58.940 Stuart, your thoughts on the, on this tax angle?

00:22:01.320 Yeah.

00:22:01.480 That's the Trump argument, right?

00:22:03.220 That I know all the loopholes.

00:22:04.520 So I'm the guy who can close them.

00:22:06.520 And it's like, just Carney doesn't.

00:22:08.960 That's why Trump is, is a better politician.

00:22:11.260 Like you remember that clip with him and Hillary, you guys wrote the rules.

00:22:15.100 I followed them.

00:22:16.300 And I like, this is to me, this is what confuses me the most about this moment.

00:22:20.880 And I kind of understand that Trump is, he infects everything and that you can't have a

00:22:26.420 normal politics with Trump inserting himself into it.

00:22:29.060 But the idea that Mark Carney, who I think is genuinely and self-admittedly like a global

00:22:35.460 citizen, a guy who is used to these worlds, self-identifies as elite, he's technocratic,

00:22:41.820 he speaks like a technocrat, he's got a policy to make you live your life better because he

00:22:47.880 knows how you should be living your life.

00:22:49.920 This kind of attitude is like anathema to what people are feeling right now coming out

00:22:55.760 of a liberal government.

00:22:57.100 And if you'd said to me six months ago, we're going to bring this guy in and be a liberal

00:23:01.780 leader, and he's going to tell you things like this, and he's going to be, you know,

00:23:05.640 putting his funds in Bermuda and avoiding taxes and wearing his suits and stuff like

00:23:09.720 that, I would have said, how could the conservatives lose this?

00:23:12.920 But this is just not a normal election.

00:23:16.420 I think this is probably the best version of that because we talked about last time, 0.98

00:23:21.380 his French sucks, but Quebecers love him.

00:23:23.560 And he's in this moment, you know, the kind of guy who puts funds in Bermuda to avoid taxes 0.97

00:23:30.060 and people don't seem to care at all.

00:23:32.040 And I think that just shows you how enveloping the Trump factor is right now.

00:23:38.180 I think that sums it up.

00:23:39.920 Okay, we need to take a quick break.

00:23:41.280 When we come back, we'll switch gears, start talking about Pierre Polyev, a big endorsement

00:23:47.560 for him last week from someone that won't surprise anyone, but it was a reigning endorsement.

00:23:52.280 And some tough questions for him on the campaign trail, including, does size matter?

00:23:57.480 This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?, where we unpack the biggest, weirdest,

00:24:03.080 and wildest political moments in Canadian history you thought you knew and tell you

00:24:07.540 what really happened.

00:24:09.060 Stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favorite episodes.

00:24:13.520 If you don't want to stick around, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What?

00:24:17.520 everywhere you get podcasts.

00:24:19.880 You know, friends, I am in a unique position in this federal election.

00:24:27.040 I am the only person who can say that both of the men running to be prime minister once

00:24:35.340 worked for me.

00:24:36.300 And in that regard, my choice, without hesitation, without equivocation, without a shadow of a

00:24:48.440 doubt, is Pierre Polyev.

00:24:51.580 No one should be really shocked that Stephen Harper endorsed Pierre Polyev at the giant rally

00:24:59.660 in Edmonton.

00:25:00.500 15,000 people!

00:25:01.980 Yay! 0.99

00:25:02.160 No one should be shocked by that, but it was a pretty reigning endorsement.

00:25:06.640 It was emphatic, and I thought he had a really interesting point there, Stuart, where he just

00:25:11.480 said, I've worked with both of them, they've both worked for me, and I'm picking Pierre.

00:25:17.080 Yeah, I think you could see in that moment that some of Carney's resume enhancement stuff

00:25:24.120 has bugged Harper a little bit. 0.99

00:25:26.260 You could see that it was definitely something he wanted to refute in that speech.

00:25:30.080 Well, one of his lines was, I hear there's another guy claiming he led Canada through

00:25:35.660 the 2008-2009 crisis.

00:25:37.680 Yeah, there's nothing more annoying, I think.

00:25:39.160 Like, I think most Canadians understand that, like, the macroeconomic stuff comes from the

00:25:43.900 fiscal side, and that I think Harper particularly feels like on, I think he writes in his book

00:25:49.460 that it was his 50th birthday, he had to bail out the auto sector.

00:25:52.540 And, you know, as a lifelong movement conservative, that's a tough decision to make.

00:25:56.680 So this was tough stuff for Harper, and I think it bugs him to see Carney going around

00:26:01.040 taking credit.

00:26:02.660 But the speech, I thought, was great.

00:26:04.300 It was only about eight or nine minutes long, and I had two thoughts.

00:26:09.220 One was that it was really well done, and I think I talked to some conservatives about it,

00:26:14.280 and they were saying, you know, we know that the boomers, the older voters, are drifting

00:26:19.000 towards Carney.

00:26:20.420 I think they kind of see older women as a lost cause, as far as getting them to the

00:26:24.720 polls.

00:26:26.400 Tasha agrees.

00:26:28.780 As an older woman, I will say.

00:26:30.640 Not a boomer.

00:26:31.260 I would never say that about you.

00:26:32.860 I'm an Xer.

00:26:34.220 Xer. 0.99

00:26:34.900 Yeah, the Gen Xers and the boomers. 0.98

00:26:36.400 But I think what they were trying to do was, some of those older men who really appreciated

00:26:40.920 Harper and look back on those years with fondness, they would see Stephen Harper and say, that's

00:26:45.900 right.

00:26:46.380 Maybe we do want to return to those days.

00:26:48.260 The other thought I had, which I think is a little concerning for Polyev, is that Harper

00:26:53.680 was actually able to capture the tone that was necessary, the tone that Polyev has been

00:26:59.260 trying to get, but I think has been, it's eluded him a little bit, but I thought that

00:27:03.600 Harper got up there and in about eight or nine minutes delivered the perfect speech for 0.99

00:27:06.780 it.

00:27:08.080 Maybe Stephen Harper should start writing Polyev's speeches then.

00:27:12.180 I'll tell you this about Stephen Harper.

00:27:13.900 Remember, he always had speechwriters while he was PM and he rewrote everything down to

00:27:19.100 the last minute.

00:27:20.320 He'd be like, nope, give me it again.

00:27:22.060 And he'd make changes.

00:27:23.640 So there's no doubt in my mind that he either wrote or rewrote that one.

00:27:28.440 And you mentioned his 50th birthday, bailing out GM.

00:27:31.160 Uh, the day they announced that here in Toronto at the Marriott on Bay, I was one of two people

00:27:38.080 that they pulled into interview.

00:27:39.760 They wanted two Toronto media outlets, broadcast outlets to do the interview.

00:27:44.300 So CTV Toronto got one and I was at News Talk 1010.

00:27:47.120 And I walk into the room and I had never seen the man so foul, foul mood, uh, than that day

00:27:54.740 because he hated what he was doing, but had to be done.

00:27:59.280 And, you know, that, that's what you need to do in a moment.

00:28:02.040 That's why he, he was a good leader.

00:28:03.780 And I hope whoever gets in, um, you know, in those moments goes against what they want

00:28:10.540 to do for what has to be done.

00:28:12.440 Doug Ford did that during the pandemic, I think, um, went too far on a bunch of things,

00:28:17.720 but he found the moment and you need that.

00:28:20.700 And that's a quality that right now we can't detect in any of these leaders.

00:28:24.460 It's not until they're in that moment.

00:28:26.320 Uh, in terms of his, uh, his endorsement, Tasha, what were, were your thoughts on it?

00:28:32.660 Does it move the needle?

00:28:33.900 I know it doesn't for you as a, an older woman, a term I never would have used for you

00:28:39.960 until you kept using it.

00:28:41.040 It's fine.

00:28:41.640 Um, it's, um, okay.

00:28:44.960 So I, a couple of thoughts on it.

00:28:46.920 Um, it can cut both ways because, uh, reaction I heard from people, one was, oh, they're

00:28:52.700 desperate.

00:28:53.100 They're losing.

00:28:53.800 They're bringing out Stephen Harper, just like they brought out Caroline Mulroney in

00:28:57.180 Ontario to get the red Tory vote, to look to those women, exactly that the red Tory 1.00

00:29:01.660 older women, uh, you know, Xers generation, perhaps boomers, uh, to say, you know what? 0.91

00:29:07.700 I, I, my father, Brian Mulroney, who is like even more, you know, paterfamilias to the

00:29:13.420 conservative, because there's Ontario, I would think then Harper was, um, that they, that he,

00:29:19.160 he loves Pierre.

00:29:20.140 I am a friend of, I'm a friend of Pierre.

00:29:22.560 Not to have an endorsement.

00:29:23.240 I'm a friend.

00:29:24.140 Like it was, it was very personal.

00:29:25.820 Um, and then, and Harper, a few days later, same thing in Western Canada coming out and

00:29:31.480 doing the, you know, the, the blessing, Godfather blessing you.

00:29:35.380 Um, that whole thing was designed to evoke a sense of, uh, say political nostalgia, but

00:29:41.560 also credibility to your point.

00:29:44.000 Um, Harper has never said, never refuted offering Carney the job of finance minister.

00:29:49.820 He's had ample opportunity to do that if it's true, but he did not.

00:29:53.700 He has not.

00:29:54.700 That is still out there.

00:29:55.900 That's still hanging out there.

00:29:56.900 I think that's one of the reasons he did what he did.

00:29:58.640 And he said what he said about Carney, but he's never refuted that.

00:30:01.240 So the, you know, if, if you go by, again, by what we're saying before by omission, maybe

00:30:05.880 he did probably did.

00:30:06.900 Like, why would Carney lie about that?

00:30:08.660 It's easily refutable.

00:30:09.580 The point is though, that I think the campaign felt it needed to neutralize Carney from a

00:30:14.840 higher level than simply slagging him on social and having, you know, Pierre slagged him personally

00:30:19.660 with his haircut. 1.00

00:30:20.400 That was stupid. 1.00

00:30:21.340 I mean, Pierre's haircut leaves a lot to be desired, frankly, but you know, like, I mean, 1.00

00:30:24.660 really, but really don't go after that stuff. 0.99

00:30:27.200 It's dumb. 0.88

00:30:28.600 We're men. 0.99

00:30:29.200 We have bad hair.

00:30:29.920 No, but that's what I mean.

00:30:31.080 It's like, no, I, you know, it was, it was a cheap shot and that's what, what they shouldn't

00:30:35.920 do.

00:30:36.500 The Harper thing was, was good because it was not a cheap shot.

00:30:39.080 It was a high level shot and from a person with intense gravitas.

00:30:42.840 So it was, I think it was a positive for the conservatives.

00:30:46.180 Um, I think that right now you look at the polls, they're moving, they're moving.

00:30:52.080 The conservatives, the gap is narrowed and the liberals are now in minority territory, according

00:30:55.680 to the last polls I saw.

00:30:56.620 Um, which doesn't totally surprise me.

00:30:59.560 I think that this is this can't, a campaign doesn't matter.

00:31:02.560 And people are getting, are taking a hard look at what's on the table and making a judgment,

00:31:07.200 um, based on a multiplicity of factors they wouldn't have known at the beginning of this

00:31:10.700 campaign.

00:31:11.040 Well, I always say voters are fickle, polls can change, campaigns matter.

00:31:16.340 And we've seen that a couple of times this year.

00:31:18.720 So, uh, the backstory on, on Harper offering up the, uh, the job of finance minister to

00:31:25.280 Carney.

00:31:25.660 Were you in the room?

00:31:26.980 No.

00:31:27.220 Like spooky stuff?

00:31:28.660 Like I want to know.

00:31:29.200 Uh, no, and, and I didn't get this directly from Stephen Harper.

00:31:34.760 Um, but he's told me some other things about cabinet ministers over the years, why some

00:31:39.120 stayed, why some left.

00:31:40.860 But, uh, um, you know, so I talked to some of his people on background and what they said

00:31:46.680 was that Harper knew that Carney was sniffing around the liberal leadership and that he decided,

00:31:56.340 okay, he's either got to be on our team or not be on our team.

00:31:59.800 And so they decided to suss him out and say, you know, you've heard the stories of after

00:32:05.080 the 2011 election defeat, uh, I think it was summer of 2011.

00:32:09.340 Um, Carney went down to, uh, Scott Bryson's cottage in Nova Scotia and spent a week down

00:32:15.140 there as they kicked around this idea.

00:32:17.040 Who's on Carney's campaign bus with him?

00:32:19.480 Scott Bryson.

00:32:20.140 Yeah, they're pals.

00:32:21.240 Yeah.

00:32:21.520 Yeah.

00:32:21.780 They're, they're great pals.

00:32:22.740 So he was looking at running for the liberal leadership after Iggy left.

00:32:26.840 And wanted to do it. 1.00

00:32:28.320 And Harper offered him the job to basically say, shit or get off the pot. 1.00

00:32:32.680 I heard the spin too. 1.00

00:32:33.640 I honestly don't believe that.

00:32:34.980 I don't, you don't need to go as far as to offer that.

00:32:37.080 Plus Diana Fox Carney, his wife was the tier of Canada, 2020. 1.00

00:32:40.620 They have been close to the liberals in many ways as a couple, uh, you know, uh, for a long

00:32:46.660 time.

00:32:47.020 So I think that honestly, that what you're just telling me, I've heard that spin too.

00:32:50.340 I don't buy it.

00:32:51.100 We'll put the story out there, see what the audience thinks they can enjoy it or not.

00:32:54.320 But so they, they, they, they've been able to get Caroline Mulroney on board.

00:32:59.340 And I'm sure if Brian Mulroney were alive, he'd be out there for him.

00:33:02.240 Just like Kretchen, Kretchen's back out for, uh, Carney and doing more for Carney than he

00:33:08.120 did, uh, ever for Trudeau.

00:33:09.360 But that's because he actually hears from Carney and never heard from Trudeau.

00:33:12.760 Uh, those two did not get along, but should Pierre Polyev, and we'll get, we'll play the

00:33:19.980 clips of the Corey tonight and Polyev reacting to it.

00:33:22.460 But should Polyev have, um, done more before this election to bridge, mend fences, build bridges,

00:33:33.600 have whatever you want to use with people like Doug Ford and Patrick Brown.

00:33:38.380 Uh, cause that rally in Brampton was big the other day, but Patrick Brown, who has a huge

00:33:44.480 political machine in Peel region, uh, they did not reach out to Patrick Brown for that

00:33:50.520 Brampton rally.

00:33:51.340 They have not asked for Patrick Brown support to help candidates in Peel region.

00:33:56.240 They did nothing with Doug Ford.

00:33:58.240 I think this was a big mistake, uh, for the Polyev campaign.

00:34:01.940 You don't have to love each other, but if you're on the same team or you're 80% friends,

00:34:07.260 50% friends even, uh, work together.

00:34:10.840 Yeah.

00:34:11.420 I mean, that is something that you hear from conservatives and it was, uh, pointed out to

00:34:16.600 me as something I hadn't fully noticed, but somebody pointed out to me at that Edmonton

00:34:20.020 rally.

00:34:20.320 I, I mean, you've got about 20 conservative MPs attending that thing and Harper was the

00:34:26.960 star of the show and Polyev was the main act and nobody mentioned or shouted out or brought

00:34:33.360 on stage any of the MPs.

00:34:35.220 And I think that if you hear a sort of consistent criticism from conservatives, people on the

00:34:41.920 campaign or people outside the campaign, it's that it's a one man show or it's a two person

00:34:47.260 show, Polyev and Aneda, uh, doing their thing.

00:34:50.660 And sometimes they've got Jenny Byrne in the back room doing her thing, but they don't actually

00:34:55.680 go outside that circle.

00:34:57.100 And I think this is maybe just the nature of Polyev's personality.

00:35:01.420 He's very single-minded.

00:35:02.840 He's a policy guy.

00:35:03.940 He'd rather be crunching numbers than shaking hands and talking to people.

00:35:08.400 And I think that, you know, the two years where they were 20 points clear gave them such

00:35:14.920 confidence in their plan and that is anyone who expressed an objection or a different point of

00:35:21.280 view would be met with that answer of, look, we're 20 points clear.

00:35:25.660 Like, how are you going to come here and tell us how to run our show?

00:35:28.480 Um, and I think they're still in that mindset a little bit and, you know, that comes down

00:35:33.420 to relationships.

00:35:34.160 It comes down to, are you calling Doug Ford right after he gets elected and making sure

00:35:39.220 that he's on side or the very least he's neutral to you because if he's against you, that's

00:35:44.700 a real problem.

00:35:45.860 And I think if you were sort of rerunning all of this the last two years, that might be the

00:35:51.740 thing if you're a conservative that you would change is that there was more outreach.

00:35:55.440 There was more kind of sensitivity to other concerns.

00:35:58.960 Uh, Tasha, you were part of that leadership race.

00:36:02.320 I was, I tell you, I mean, Sharae is a guy that he could be leaning on in Quebec, but

00:36:08.240 he's not as far as I know.

00:36:10.520 Is Sharae out there speaking up for the conservatives?

00:36:13.800 Why should he with the way that everyone involved in this campaign is treated by the leadership

00:36:18.440 currently?

00:36:19.200 And I will say I have, uh, I mean, apart from personal experience, which I'm not going to,

00:36:23.960 you know, I'm not going to belabor that, but I have heard from so many people.

00:36:27.800 In fact, even recently, candidates, people who were potential candidates, past candidates,

00:36:33.260 Pierre doesn't need you.

00:36:34.380 That was actually said to a woman who has been a candidate for the party and wanted to potentially

00:36:41.580 be a candidate again.

00:36:42.440 Someone who would have been an excellent one.

00:36:44.120 Pierre doesn't need you.

00:36:46.140 Um, if you're not in his inner circle, you're not in his inner circle.

00:36:48.600 I get that.

00:36:49.720 But, uh, I can remember asking one of his key strategists after leadership, uh, was over,

00:36:54.940 um, you know, is when's Pierre going to come to the Albany club and talk to people?

00:36:59.840 Never laughing.

00:37:01.780 That's not our thing, you know, cause that's not the people they talk to.

00:37:05.240 I mean, they'll take their money and, uh, that's been their attitude from the beginning.

00:37:10.820 So if you're 20 points up, it doesn't matter, but they're not now.

00:37:14.360 If they're not, guess what?

00:37:16.640 Going to not going to the Albany club in Toronto, the, I think it's the only club of its type

00:37:23.820 private club that is specific to one party.

00:37:27.120 It's got a lot of history.

00:37:28.760 Yep.

00:37:29.060 Every leader since Sir Johnny McDonald has been there.

00:37:31.980 Yep.

00:37:32.340 And yes, you're going to meet the people who fund the party on a regular basis.

00:37:37.680 Guess what?

00:37:38.080 That's part of the gig.

00:37:39.120 It is.

00:37:39.560 Um, it is part of the game, but you know, they didn't play that way.

00:37:42.980 And the goal was because G the Albany club is elitist, right?

00:37:46.580 And we're going to not be that, but it's more than that.

00:37:50.200 It is, you know, should Patrick Brown.

00:37:52.080 I mean, if you saw the scorched earth policy politics that was plagiaring leadership with

00:37:55.480 Patrick Brown, I don't have to remind you.

00:37:57.400 The attitude is, um, that if you're not with us, you're against us and we are going to crush

00:38:02.600 you and that's it.

00:38:03.400 And we're not going to talk to you later.

00:38:04.960 And they did not.

00:38:05.680 They did not talk to people in those campaigns.

00:38:07.620 They did not.

00:38:08.200 Trust me.

00:38:08.960 Outreach.

00:38:09.460 It was never part of their plan because that was not the crowd they wanted to in terms of voters

00:38:14.200 and they didn't want to have trouble.

00:38:15.420 They don't want to have people who tell them things they don't want to hear or don't follow

00:38:19.340 the program.

00:38:20.140 And you look at a lot of the candidates they've put in since then, they've been people who

00:38:24.100 are very loyal to Pierre.

00:38:25.580 Um, and that's how they built their team.

00:38:27.140 So, you know, like I said, it worked for them.

00:38:28.920 They were 20 points up and now they're not.

00:38:31.240 And the big tent, there's two theories on conservative politics.

00:38:34.200 There's the big tent, right?

00:38:35.820 Which is more, you got to water your wine.

00:38:38.020 You got to make compromises.

00:38:39.580 Those red Tories over there.

00:38:40.920 Oh, you may not like some of what they say, but you're going to make an effort to, to keep

00:38:45.320 them happy.

00:38:46.440 Or there is the, we're going to just cut those loose.

00:38:49.360 We're going to focus on the base.

00:38:50.660 We're going to have a different base, um, more working class base, more, whatever you

00:38:55.340 want to call it.

00:38:56.060 We're going to identify with a different ethos and change the party to what we want it to

00:39:00.000 be.

00:39:00.700 Um, and we're going to win with that because people hate Trudeau and that's what they went

00:39:05.160 with.

00:39:05.560 But now Trudeau is not there.

00:39:07.080 Oops.

00:39:07.480 So tonight, uh, did go off again, uh, curse the politics podcast, or, you know, I know

00:39:12.880 I've, I've got a bad name and with some people in the conservative party for pointing out

00:39:17.980 at the beginning of the campaign that, you know, the, the election has pivoted towards

00:39:22.520 Trump.

00:39:22.920 That was true in December.

00:39:26.120 It was true in December.

00:39:28.080 And I know because, you know, I was running a campaign for Doug Ford in which we were doing

00:39:32.520 polling and we're listening to that polling.

00:39:34.600 And that was true in December.

00:39:36.840 And it was true in January and February and March.

00:39:40.540 Right.

00:39:40.800 Like, but like, I see no evidence that they have actually pulled and that they were actually

00:39:45.340 like following polling and research and anything that is even remotely conventional and how you

00:39:51.260 manage a campaign and that's why they're losing.

00:39:54.040 And they're losing, like, let's just pause and point out, they have blown a 25 point lead,

00:40:00.700 which is like, you know, you want to talk, we, we talk sometimes about campaign malpractice

00:40:06.920 blowing a 25 point lead and being like 10 points down is campaign malpractice at the highest

00:40:14.600 level.

00:40:15.420 And I'm sorry to have to point that out conservatives, but you know, uh, that is,

00:40:21.260 is the actual reality.

00:40:22.980 And then he went on CTV after that.

00:40:25.620 Then Pierre was asked about this issue again.

00:40:28.520 I know this was two weeks ago when this first came up, but it came up again.

00:40:33.200 Here's his answer on why he's not just focusing on Trump.

00:40:36.740 Stephen Harper's former director of communication says, quote, blowing a 25 point lead and being

00:40:42.380 10 points down is campaign malpractice at the highest level.

00:40:47.180 Is it campaign malpractice?

00:40:49.060 No, I answered that question two weeks ago.

00:40:52.300 Um, uh, liberals and lobbyists want to focus, want me to stop talking about high food prices.

00:41:00.960 Well, I'm not going to do that because single mothers shouldn't be going to bed hungry, worried 1.00

00:41:07.600 about how they're going to feed their kids in the morning.

00:41:09.840 They want me to stop talking about the doubling housing costs during the lost liberal decade.

00:41:14.340 I'm not going to stop talking about that.

00:41:16.220 They want me to stop talking about the rampaging crime that's overtaking our streets and the

00:41:20.300 overdose crisis liberals caused that has taken the lives of 50,000 people.

00:41:25.540 I will not stop talking about that either.

00:41:27.980 After the lost liberal decade of rising costs and crime and a falling economy under America's

00:41:33.880 thumb, we can't afford a fourth liberal term.

00:41:37.360 All right.

00:41:37.540 So we can say, look at the campaign guys and, you know, Corey's calling it campaign malpractice,

00:41:43.660 but, uh, in making it sound like that they're definitely going to lose.

00:41:47.600 They might, if things stay as they are, they will.

00:41:49.880 But it's, as, as you said, Tasha, some closing of the gap and at best, it is a six to seven

00:41:58.100 point margin with the debates still to come.

00:42:02.200 Who's right on this?

00:42:04.160 Is it tonight who says you can, you should only focus on Trump?

00:42:07.600 I know that's your main issue.

00:42:09.160 Uh, Pierre does talk about Trump.

00:42:11.260 Should he only be focused on that and forget talking about affordable housing that, you know,

00:42:16.340 so that your kids can move out and, uh, and get a house one day or find a good job or,

00:42:22.040 you know, have a life?

00:42:23.960 Um, I think that they can do both.

00:42:26.600 I think the fundamental miscalculation was that they didn't have to do the first one and

00:42:30.720 they just kept hammering.

00:42:31.840 And that goes to what we were saying earlier is that they just, they're, they have a way

00:42:35.500 of doing things and that's what they want to do and they will do it.

00:42:38.100 And if it works, it works, it works, it works.

00:42:40.160 It worked, like I said, until Trudeau was gone, until Trump was there.

00:42:42.860 And then Carney came in of those three things, there's only one variable that can change now.

00:42:48.680 And that's Carney.

00:42:49.860 So basically this is Carney's election to lose.

00:42:52.320 And we have seen him make a lot of mistakes on this campaign.

00:42:55.020 And I think that explains partly why the liberal, the gap is closing because people are getting

00:42:59.960 to know him and some people are like, uh, you know, at first, yes, now, maybe not so much.

00:43:05.120 So the, the conservatives have boxed themselves in to this, you know, this, this focus on,

00:43:12.640 the issues that worked for them, they didn't pivot early enough.

00:43:16.000 I agree with Corey blowing a lead like that is, is campaign malpractice.

00:43:20.560 The reason they blew it though, is because they were rigid and they didn't anticipate

00:43:24.820 scenario one, two, three, they didn't do that.

00:43:27.580 Um, that, you know, and they should have done that at some point they had like a long time

00:43:31.820 because people knew this was coming.

00:43:33.580 Trudeau was not going to be there.

00:43:34.860 Most people, most pundits said he's not going to be around.

00:43:37.120 Uh, I, I did not until, uh, just before because I, well, you know, followed this guy since

00:43:45.140 he was elected in 08.

00:43:46.320 I thought his ego would not allow it.

00:43:47.880 He really wanted to fight with Pierre Paliyev.

00:43:50.060 He wanted to show he could beat Skippy.

00:43:53.240 That's what he wanted to do.

00:43:54.500 That's what the liberals call him.

00:43:55.620 He wanted to beat Skippy.

00:43:57.520 Stuart, um, in the, uh, in the ongoing saga of tonight versus Paliyev, which one do you think

00:44:04.000 is right?

00:44:04.640 Um, well, I am enjoying it, um, with my popcorn, um, just like I think we always do.

00:44:10.300 But I really think these conservatives need to get over this infighting, um, because it

00:44:15.220 happens every time.

00:44:16.060 And I would just suggest there is an earnest debate going on right now.

00:44:20.600 There was an earnest debate in the war room about what they should do.

00:44:24.160 And there were concerns that if you jump into the Trump issue, you are making the liberal

00:44:29.540 friendly issue even more, uh, salient.

00:44:33.520 And maybe you can swing a ballot question to something else.

00:44:36.960 Um, these, maybe they had two bad options.

00:44:39.920 Secondly, I would just say like the Corey's argument that you can just take the Doug Ford

00:44:45.700 template and run it federally, I think is crazy.

00:44:49.260 Um, and I do think we've kind of, we've maybe overestimated the Doug Ford juggernaut in that

00:44:55.820 he's beaten Kathleen Wynne, Stephen Del Duca, and Bonnie Crombie.

00:45:01.100 I mean, Stephen Del Duca was not the first choice of liberal supporters in Ontario.

00:45:07.160 It's nothing to sneeze at winning three majorities.

00:45:09.860 History is going to look very kindly on that, but let's not pretend that there was some strategic

00:45:14.180 genius involved here.

00:45:15.640 Um, I think that what you're looking at federally is a country that's tilted towards the liberals.

00:45:20.340 And if you don't believe that now, I don't know what can convince you of that because

00:45:25.000 it just seems to me that the conservatives need this real sweet spot where either the

00:45:29.680 NDP is huge and the liberals are less popular.

00:45:32.860 So the vote split favors them, or they just have an affordability, you know, pocketbook

00:45:38.060 election that's right down in their wheelhouse, or they don't win and they just need those

00:45:42.300 two things.

00:45:43.120 And otherwise that's it.

00:45:45.140 So, um, I think sometimes when we look at this, we're, we're maybe overanalyzing it

00:45:50.140 a little bit and that the, the playing field just tilted.

00:45:55.360 Do the debates matter on Wednesday and Thursday and how much?

00:46:00.900 A short answer.

00:46:01.760 Yes, they do.

00:46:02.920 Um, I think they will matter for different reasons.

00:46:05.760 I think the English debate, um, will be the debate where you hear all the issues we've

00:46:10.060 talked about tonight.

00:46:10.800 Uh, there'll be the, the character assassination juggernaut that Paulieff will bring against

00:46:15.180 Carney to try and get them to be testy, get them to do all those reactions you were talking

00:46:19.920 about earlier on matters of personal, uh, nature and, and make this date about anything

00:46:24.760 but Trump.

00:46:25.620 Exactly.

00:46:26.080 Like they'll move it, try and move the needle.

00:46:27.500 That will be the needle mover in English. 0.99

00:46:29.060 In French, you're going to have issues of Quebec that could hurt the liberals on bill

00:46:32.840 96, bill 21.

00:46:35.080 Uh, Monsieur Blanchet is going to try and put Carney in a corner because he can with his French.

00:46:40.080 There's no problem.

00:46:40.940 And Carney's French is, is, is weak.

00:46:43.000 Um, but it's also a question of just those issues and raising those issues and raising

00:46:47.000 doubt in Quebecers minds to say, Hey, you know, maybe I should stay with the block and

00:46:50.940 keep parking my vote there.

00:46:52.720 Yay.

00:46:52.880 Quebec.

00:46:55.700 My, uh, weekly newsletter this week is about where the conservative panic meter is at

00:47:00.760 and is actually higher than I expected.

00:47:02.840 I wasn't expecting it to be low, but it's even higher than I expected.

00:47:05.680 And I asked some people, what about the debates?

00:47:08.280 Are they going to swing things?

00:47:09.480 And somebody pointed out to me that first of all, they're structured to basically not

00:47:14.020 make news.

00:47:14.700 It's, you know, it's not designed so that you have these big moments.

00:47:18.660 But secondly, if you look at the 2021 debate, the biggest news that came out of that was

00:47:23.620 Sachi Curl from Angus Reid getting in trouble about some comments about Quebec.

00:47:28.040 And that was the big news.

00:47:29.160 So you just never quite know how these things are going to go.

00:47:31.760 And the conservative I was talking to about this said, I'm not putting my hopes into the

00:47:37.220 debates.

00:47:37.460 I'm hoping for a Kearney gaffe or maybe the NDP resurgence or something like that.

00:47:42.380 Uh, 14 years ago in the debates, Jack Layton to Michael Ignatieff.

00:47:48.900 If you want a promotion, you have to show up for work.

00:47:52.020 That was pretty good.

00:47:52.820 That was a pretty devastating line from Jack.

00:47:55.180 It helped him.

00:47:55.920 I miss Jack.

00:47:56.340 Uh, I think that they both have to watch not to be angry, not to be testy.

00:48:04.720 They both have that ability.

00:48:06.620 They're very alike in that way.

00:48:08.420 So they've got to keep it cool while making, trying to make the other guy not.

00:48:13.840 Uh, we'll see if Jagmeet Singh is even relevant in this debate.

00:48:17.380 We haven't even really talked about him.

00:48:19.320 Uh, although they've been putting, they've been putting out some of the good stuff on,

00:48:24.240 uh, Carney and his taxes.

00:48:26.440 It's just, they're not getting the credit for it.

00:48:28.720 They're the ones pushing it.

00:48:30.140 The last two years, Brian, like, you know, Pharmacare, dental care, the liberals take all

00:48:35.420 the credit.

00:48:36.640 Yeah.

00:48:36.880 They got zero credit for those things.

00:48:39.160 And, uh, it's like the, uh, abacus data poll.

00:48:42.360 Who do you credit for, uh, getting the carbon tax lowered?

00:48:45.980 And most people said Mark Carney, not Pierre Polly have.

00:48:49.580 Well, you know, realistically it's Pierre Polly have because the liberals never would have

00:48:53.520 done that if he didn't make it unpopular.

00:48:55.200 And here's, here's an example of Donald Trump helping Mark Carney again.

00:49:01.780 Liberation day, as he called his tariff day, liberation day saw the price of gas tank.

00:49:08.360 And so the price of gas since the carbon tax was lowered to zero has really gone down.

00:49:15.620 And I think a lot of Canadians are looking at going, wow, Mark Carney made gas really cheap.

00:49:19.740 Uh, I was, uh, at the Canada Strong and Free, uh, conference and talking with, uh, Premier Smith on stage.

00:49:28.360 She said with the price of gas or price of oil dropping the way it has 15 to 20%, Alberta was looking at a surplus.

00:49:35.780 They could look, could be looking at a $5 billion deficit because of how bad that is.

00:49:42.580 But I will say, I don't know if either of you heard it.

00:49:44.460 If you did give me a quick reaction, I thought she gave a raw, raw team Canada speech, um, at the event. 0.99

00:49:51.420 Um, I thought she was sufficiently boring. 1.00

00:49:53.640 So not to, uh, hurt Polly have chances.

00:49:56.220 I think she was really trying to not make news that would hurt Polly have.

00:49:59.340 And the thing she did that I took my attention to was she took all these sort of pointy headed conservatives to task for being at a conference and not out knocking on doors.

00:50:09.020 So I think that might've been something they needed to hear.

00:50:12.940 All right.

00:50:14.220 We will, uh, convene again after the debates and, uh, see how things stand at the end of the election.

00:50:20.740 Good talking to you.

00:50:21.500 And you two are the, uh, people behind the political hack newsletter.

00:50:25.920 If you, uh, if you haven't subscribed to the political hack newsletter, uh, do so now and get all the wonderful insights that you don't get, that we don't have time for in the podcast.

00:50:35.280 Thanks so much, guys.

00:50:36.480 Thanks, Brian.

00:50:38.500 Full comment is a post-media podcast.

00:50:40.860 My name's Brian Lilly, your host.

00:50:42.260 This episode was produced by Andre Pru, theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:50:46.220 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:50:48.200 Please hit subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

00:50:50.680 Leave us a rating, give us a review, and tell your friends about us.

00:50:54.040 Thanks for listening.

00:50:54.600 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:50:59.360 Here's that clip from Canada Did What?

00:51:02.060 I promised you.

00:51:05.140 In the late 1960s, you have members of the Montreal Police who can spend their entire shift rushing from one FLQ bombing to another.

00:51:14.240 Here's how New Year's Eve 1968 played out for Robert Coté, a member of the Montreal Police Bomb Squad, which put him at the forefront of fighting the FLQ during this period.

00:51:25.580 He was supposed to be at home with his wife, who had just miscarried twin daughters, but instead, at 11pm, he's called out to Montreal City Hall to investigate a bomb that had just gone off.

00:51:37.100 He's on route with sirens blaring when he's told, actually, don't bother with the exploded bomb, there's an unexploded bomb on the other side of City Hall you have to defuse.

00:51:47.180 And then, right after snipping the wires on the City Hall bomb, Coté had to speed west where a third bomb has just exploded outside a federal building.

00:51:57.560 The bombings started in April and May of 1963.

00:52:03.860 That's when the first bombings took place.

00:52:05.540 And the mailbox bombings were the most famous part of the whole thing, which was basically on the Thursday night and Friday night, leading into the Victoria Day weekend in 1963.

00:52:17.300 So, and initially, they started attacking these symbols of federalism, federal institutions, whether it was the Montreal Post Office or Revenue Canada.

00:52:28.340 But the bombings escalated as time went on in terms of the size of the bombs and the powerfulness of these bombs.

00:52:37.980 If you want to hear the rest of the story, make sure you subscribe to Canada Did What? everywhere you get your podcasts.

00:52:47.300 Thank you.

Full Comment - April 14, 2025

Mark Carney’s brittle image is cracking

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript