Full Comment - No Western country seriously wants Ukraine to win

00:00:00.000 It was a 28-point peace plan that was immediately dismissed as unworkable, as dictated by Vladimir

00:00:08.300 Putin, and then one that Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky suddenly said, well, maybe we can

00:00:13.200 work something out here after all.

00:00:15.120 And the headlines and challenges around trying to end the war between Russia and Ukraine

00:00:18.960 just continue.

00:00:20.480 Hello and welcome to the Full Comment Podcast.

00:00:22.680 My name's Brian Lilly, your host, and today we explore the Quagmire on the Donbass.

00:00:27.640 While we have a backdrop of a peace plan discussion taking place, there's also attacks by Russia.

00:00:33.580 They're carrying out cyber and heart attacks, drones, you might say, against NATO allies

00:00:38.060 such as Poland, where a train line was sabotaged, or Latvia, where drones have been hitting regularly.

00:00:44.000 You have the offices of Andrei Yermak, chief of staff to Zelensky, being raided in a corruption

00:00:50.760 scandal, and Putin saying he still wants to meet with Donald Trump in Budapest.

00:00:54.780 Well, to help us all figure this out, Matthew Bondi is a foreign policy expert with the

00:00:59.700 McDonnell-Laurier Institute, who follows the situation in Ukraine closely, and will attempt

00:01:04.520 to help make sense of it all.

00:01:05.920 Matt, thanks for the time.

00:01:07.900 Hey, Brian.

00:01:08.620 Great to be with you.

00:01:09.480 Thank you.

00:01:10.780 Help us figure out where did this 28-point peace plan come from, because it's been described

00:01:16.440 as Donald Trump's peace plan, and then it was, well, no, it's not really Trump's peace

00:01:20.640 plan, it was people around him.

00:01:22.480 Where did this come about, and does it belong to Donald Trump or someone else?

00:01:29.200 Is this a Putin-dictated plan?

00:01:32.500 Well, it sure looks like a Putin-dictated plan.

00:01:34.980 When you look at the contents of it, it reads a little bit like a fascist fever dream.

00:01:40.040 I mean, it compels Ukraine to limit the size of its armed forces to 600,000, which sounds

00:01:46.940 like a lot, but it's not in that neighborhood.

00:01:49.900 It gives Russia bonus lands that it hasn't even won by force of arms in the conflict, which 0.56

00:01:57.460 is something that one struggles to understand.

00:02:01.680 And it goes back to the precedent that got us here in the first place, which is very weak,

00:02:08.420 non-prescriptive security guarantees.

00:02:11.000 So you'll recall the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, where the US, the UK, and Russia agreed

00:02:18.160 that Ukraine was going to be independent, it was going to be free, and that Western powers

00:02:24.580 would provide security support should Ukraine ever be violated by force of arms.

00:02:30.900 And, you know, that was no better than the paper it was written on.

00:02:34.460 So this goes back to a horrible precedent of weak security guarantees.

00:02:42.280 It keeps Ukraine out of NATO forever, which is not something one does to a sovereign country.

00:02:48.760 And it rewards Russian aggression. 0.72

00:02:50.500 This is dangerous, dangerous stuff.

00:02:51.920 It's going to make the world less safe if this plan goes forward as proposed by Trump.

00:02:56.280 But in terms of its origin, Brian, I think it's going to take a lot of years and a lot

00:03:01.300 of books to figure out exactly whose ideas went into each point.

00:03:04.520 But I think Trump thinks that he is on a roll right now following the Middle East peace plan.

00:03:11.000 And it looks to me like he wants to do another one just like the other one.

00:03:15.120 Okay, but at some point Zelensky looked and said, I can work with this or at least some of it.

00:03:22.860 Now, it's changed dramatically.

00:03:24.160 It's gone from 28.

00:03:25.400 The most recent I heard was 19.

00:03:27.360 And maybe it's expanded or contracted since then.

00:03:31.460 What is it that Zelensky is looking at in this plan that makes him say, all right, let's talk?

00:03:37.520 I think that if I put myself in Zelensky's shoes and I look at the situation in Ukraine right

00:03:45.460 now, the original peace plan was so horrifically bad, but Ukraine has so little leverage with

00:03:52.940 the United States continuing to court Vladimir Putin in a way that is inconsistent with U.S.

00:04:02.400 foreign policy over the long term.

00:04:04.280 So I think Zelensky is looking at the hand he has.

00:04:07.980 It's a bad hand.

00:04:08.700 It's a really tough hand.

00:04:10.320 And the strategy he's using would be something you might refer to as embrace and contain.

00:04:16.320 The United States is the only game in town in terms of ability to actually drive security

00:04:21.540 and economic outcomes for Ukraine in the short term.

00:04:24.600 And if you don't get in the room with the United States and talk about where the United States

00:04:30.880 is looking to go, then you just have no leverage to move forward.

00:04:35.800 So embracing the United States and its objectives in principle while containing the worst elements

00:04:41.700 and trying to improve them.

00:04:42.680 That's the name of the game for Zelensky.

00:04:44.560 In terms of land being swapped out, I've heard Mark Carney, I've heard the European leaders

00:04:54.200 say, we can't reward Russia, borders shouldn't change due to war.

00:04:58.980 Well, borders have always changed due to war.

00:05:01.560 That's just a matter of fact throughout the centuries.

00:05:03.820 But what I find strange, especially coming from the Europeans more than Canadians, is that 0.99

00:05:13.180 they're not willing to go in and help Ukraine fight the war.

00:05:18.880 In my view, they're not even willing to properly fund Ukraine to have a shot at winning this war.

00:05:26.260 And yet they're demanding that the war not end.

00:05:28.800 And so help me figure that out.

00:05:31.860 And this is not me saying, well, Russia took that land, so they get to keep it. 0.85

00:05:37.000 But it's Russia won't give up that land that they have taken by military force.

00:05:41.740 They're refusing to give that up.

00:05:43.720 The Europeans are refusing to fight to get it back. 0.69

00:05:46.660 But they're telling Ukraine, you just keep sitting there like a malnourished child fighting

00:05:51.480 this bear that has no end of people to put on the front line, whether it's their own

00:05:56.420 or North Koreans or who knows.

00:05:58.800 Yeah, you're right.

00:06:01.760 I mean, over the centuries, war does change borders.

00:06:04.680 And we should still aspire to better.

00:06:06.840 And since World War II and the establishment of the UN and kind of the post-war architecture,

00:06:14.360 the world's actually done a pretty decent job at living up to the aspiration of not moving

00:06:18.680 borders by force of arms.

00:06:20.580 Tons of exceptions.

00:06:21.460 But in general, this has been a norm.

00:06:24.320 And it is a cornerstone norm of international relations that is being so flagrantly violated.

00:06:34.440 And so there is a huge concern about that.

00:06:36.600 In terms of what Europe can really do, there are steps that it can take and that it should

00:06:42.000 take.

00:06:42.700 Europe itself is sitting on about $200 billion with a B in frozen Russian assets.

00:06:49.060 And, you know, there's lots of good methodologies for getting that money out the door to support

00:06:59.240 the Ukrainian defense industrial base, give it the weapons it needs to at least hold a

00:07:06.920 Russian law while they negotiate a better system.

00:07:11.160 Yeah.

00:07:13.060 I'm glad you raised this because Bill Browder has been talking about this for several years

00:07:20.060 now.

00:07:20.320 I've talked to him about it when he's visited here in Toronto.

00:07:23.560 He described how Canada, with the Magnitsky Act, has the ability to seize those assets and

00:07:30.420 turn them over to Ukraine.

00:07:32.640 That's right.

00:07:33.360 Tristia Freeland, when she was still finance minister, talked about how, I think it's about

00:07:37.960 $40, $50 million worth of assets, could be more, that were seized here in Canada that

00:07:45.900 we could have turned over.

00:07:48.000 Not only have the Europeans not done that, but we haven't done that.

00:07:51.720 We've talked loudly and proudly about it, but we haven't done it.

00:07:56.760 Why hasn't that happened?

00:07:58.100 And I saw one report in Politico that the Belgian leadership keeps trying to block this from

00:08:04.260 happening with the Europeans. 0.52

00:08:07.140 But as Canada, we could have acted on our own and help fund the war with Russian assets.

00:08:12.420 And that would have helped deal with those people who say, well, we shouldn't be spending

00:08:18.540 our own tax dollars on it.

00:08:20.200 It's hard to say, well, we shouldn't give Vladimir Putin's money to them.

00:08:23.580 Absolutely.

00:08:25.740 We could have, we should have.

00:08:27.600 And it's the same with the Europeans right now. 0.85

00:08:29.620 You know, to put the question you asked about why has this not been done in the most favorable,

00:08:35.840 plausible light, you might say that Europe and Canada are waiting for the terms of an agreement

00:08:42.840 to use that as a chip for desired outcomes for Ukraine's benefit.

00:08:49.520 Put those chips on the table from Europe and from Canada to say to the United States, listen,

00:08:54.040 we want to, we want to get this money out the door to support Ukraine.

00:08:56.840 This is money you, the United States don't have to spend.

00:08:59.540 Give us some leverage and latitude at the negotiating table.

00:09:02.280 Let us, let us get to a better outcome than what you're proposing, Mr. President.

00:09:05.980 But I see weakness and I see hesitation.

00:09:09.120 And that is what Vladimir Putin preys on.

00:09:11.560 Well, when I look at the fact that we wouldn't properly arm Ukraine and that we wouldn't properly 1.00

00:09:19.420 fund them, to me, that's weakness on the part of the West.

00:09:24.520 We are, we are asking them to win a war against a much larger adversary.

00:09:30.240 And look, they've done admirable in holding Russia to where they have. 0.98

00:09:37.740 At the beginning, it was, you know, widely predicted that the war would be over quickly.

00:09:42.920 They have done well, but you can't say they're winning the war.

00:09:47.020 Not saying they're losing it, but they're not winning either.

00:09:51.000 And I don't think that despite our rhetoric, we have not helped them the way that we could

00:09:56.580 have or should have.

00:09:58.200 Yeah, neither side can win the war, so to speak.

00:10:03.100 You know, Vladimir Putin thought that he would be able to take Kiev and, and Ukraine would

00:10:11.880 fall in, in weeks and Ukraine fought like hell.

00:10:15.240 And so, you know, Putin can't get his win that he defined, which is to swallow and destroy

00:10:20.700 Ukraine.

00:10:21.940 Ukraine can't win this war in the sense of, you know, at least with the, the weapon systems 0.60

00:10:27.600 and the support available.

00:10:28.380 They can't take back all of their territory, including the Crimea. 0.59

00:10:32.500 I, I maintain that that should still be the objective.

00:10:34.700 And here's why, like, if you look at, um, what support for Ukraine is actually costing

00:10:41.640 the United States, for example, it's about 4% of their annual military spending.

00:10:47.400 That's going to Ukraine. 0.84

00:10:48.500 And, and that includes non-military items as well, like aid, um, and support for civilian

00:10:56.220 infrastructure.

00:10:56.720 So we're talking 4% of an already somewhat small U.S. defense budget compared to Cold War

00:11:02.860 numbers.

00:11:03.360 For 4%, let's say you move it to 5% or 6% so that you can actually send Ukraine what 0.78

00:11:08.280 it needs to win battles.

00:11:10.100 So like attack them, uh, Tomahawk missiles, uh, et cetera, for like five or 6% of annual

00:11:18.220 military spending, Ukraine can disarm Russia for a generation. 0.71

00:11:23.680 That is a good deal.

00:11:25.920 You know, the, the realists, the so-called realists who are cynical about Ukraine, uh,

00:11:32.320 having a bright and Western and allied future, um, they're missing the point for a very reasonable,

00:11:39.000 uh, investment.

00:11:40.800 The United States and its allies could keep Ukraine in the fight, help it go on the offensive 0.87

00:11:45.380 by doubling down on support for that nation.

00:11:48.340 That was unilaterally.

00:11:49.680 Even if they don't win all of their land back, they will disarm this fascist regime for a

00:11:55.900 generation.

00:11:56.360 And that's a great deal.

00:11:57.620 They shouldn't be rewarded, not scolded for that.

00:12:00.840 And so I think the Trump administration for all the great work it's done, uh, on foreign

00:12:05.340 policy.

00:12:05.760 And I think they've done some great stuff like checking Iran and, uh, moving toward peace 0.99

00:12:10.900 in the Middle East.

00:12:11.580 Uh, they're backwards on this one.

00:12:13.800 There's a lot of domestic politics going on in the United States.

00:12:17.040 And I think that's going to flare up with the, um, well, at this point, not arrest, but

00:12:22.880 the rate of the office of Skolensky's chief of staff, Andrei Yermak.

00:12:27.600 We've been seeing Ukraine play out in American domestic politics going back to the first Trump

00:12:32.900 administration or even before that with, uh, um, you know, some would say going back to

00:12:40.360 the Russia hoax, all of this plays in and there's a lot of distrust on the American right about

00:12:46.800 Ukraine.

00:12:47.280 So how, how does this, uh, rate of the office and, you know, I, I believe there's seven or

00:12:53.340 eight people already facing charges in this current corruption scandal that's, uh, taken

00:12:59.480 in Zelensky's chief of staff.

00:13:00.980 Um, how does that play out in domestic policies for the United States to do what you're talking

00:13:07.960 about?

00:13:08.280 Uh, because people just say, yeah, but they're just millions from us.

00:13:13.720 Why would we keep funding them?

00:13:15.460 And I can tell you that was part of the reason that Stephen Harper pulled out of Afghanistan

00:13:19.660 when he did is that Canada was sending a lot of money and he didn't feel that an awful

00:13:25.740 lot of it was going to the Afghan people, that it was going to, um, uh, arrive at a, uh, a

00:13:33.680 situation that we needed.

00:13:34.640 It was being skimmed by warlords and officials.

00:13:38.060 And he just said, okay, enough.

00:13:41.400 Yeah.

00:13:42.340 Yeah.

00:13:42.920 Um, you know, I, I think the corruption investigation, that's obviously going to be catnip to the,

00:13:49.140 the pro Russia crowd.

00:13:50.800 And, uh, you know, that that's, that's just politics.

00:13:53.420 I think, I think where we need to go on it is say, yes, and so corruption is always bad.

00:13:57.960 That's true.

00:13:59.200 Um, Ukraine is in the middle of a ward and it's a fledgling democracy.

00:14:03.400 And so I think we have to have, uh, a little bit of a pain tolerance for, um, for things

00:14:10.440 not being super smooth and there being certain levels of, of corruption, which exists in all

00:14:15.260 countries.

00:14:16.440 So, uh, we can't, we can't give it a free pass.

00:14:19.580 We also have to focus on the big picture, you know, leadership.

00:14:23.420 It's about keeping the main thing, the main thing, the main thing is international peace

00:14:28.220 and security and a world where freedom can flourish through self-determination.

00:14:33.320 So we have to, you know, make sure that the corruption gets attacked, uh, while at the

00:14:38.060 same time, keeping focus on the main thing, which is international peace and security and

00:14:41.780 freedom.

00:14:42.840 And, uh, I'm confident that if the United States would really put its foot down, it could achieve

00:14:49.320 this.

00:14:49.520 Look at what, for example, Brian, look at what they're doing in Israel, what they're

00:14:53.660 doing, what they've done in Israel and the peace plan.

00:14:57.080 Um, it is a form of imperialism.

00:14:59.940 And I'll tell you what, one of the, one of the most insightful books on international

00:15:04.640 relations over the last few decades.

00:15:07.260 You're saying that Trump, hold on, Matt, you just, just to be clear, you're saying that

00:15:12.320 Trump's peace plan in the middle East is a form of imperialism.

00:15:17.460 Yeah, it is.

00:15:18.380 It is.

00:15:18.840 So there's a great book called empire liked by none other than Michael Ignatia, uh, former

00:15:24.560 liberal leader.

00:15:25.200 And he argues that there are some, some responsibilities, some goals in international relations that

00:15:34.620 are uniquely suited to a form of imperialism because it requires a great power to have

00:15:40.420 freedom of action, to control, to control a very complex situation.

00:15:44.400 And so if you look at what happened in the peace plan, the United States just dictated

00:15:50.220 the terms to everybody.

00:15:51.680 Yes.

00:15:52.260 There were some negotiations with cutter.

00:15:54.920 Israel was involved.

00:15:56.820 Uh, Jared Kushner, you know, led extensive talks at the end of the day, though, this was

00:16:02.600 a U S imposed peace plan.

00:16:04.720 Not unlike how the U S imposed on Germany and Japan after world war two, what the terms of

00:16:12.740 their, uh, of their polity going forward were going to look like.

00:16:18.120 So what happened in Israel with the peace plan is the U S putting its foot down saying,

00:16:22.400 this is how it's going to be.

00:16:23.380 And you know what?

00:16:24.520 It's gone over with the Arabs and there's no path, uh, at least in the short term to a 1.00

00:16:31.980 state of Palestine.

00:16:33.760 You can get big things done.

00:16:35.300 If you put your foot down as the world's superpower and the U S can do in Ukraine, what it did in

00:16:41.540 Israel and it's not doing it, it's caving to Russian aggression and it's wrongheaded.

00:16:46.860 I hear what you're saying, Matt, about the United States leaning on Israel, but Israel's 0.99

00:16:51.780 not Russia and Russia isn't what it was before in the U S S are where it was a co-competing

00:16:58.300 superpower with the United States.

00:17:00.080 It's not that, but it is still a fairly big and powerful country.

00:17:04.040 Um, there have been attempts by president Trump to, to lean on Putin.

00:17:09.860 I know that his critics will say that he is Putin's puppet.

00:17:14.160 Um, I think the attempt to have them meet in Alaska, I think the attempt to have them

00:17:18.940 meet in Budapest and then cancel.

00:17:20.800 I think he is trying to figure out what to do, but fundamentally, I'm not sure that Putin

00:17:25.200 can be trusted.

00:17:25.900 How does he attempt to do the same thing he did with Israel with Vladimir Putin in Russia?

00:17:34.840 The, the, the balance of power and the, the imbalance of power between the likes of the

00:17:39.320 United States and the Russian Federation is, uh, gaping.

00:17:44.380 So we have this, we have this mental image of Russia as this hulking Leviathan, uh, powerful 0.64

00:17:51.780 formation.

00:17:52.220 When you actually look at, look under the hood in Russia, you're talking about an economy

00:17:57.860 that's only a little bit bigger than Canada's that is taking the whole world hostage. 0.67

00:18:04.620 And, uh, they have a horrible standard of living.

00:18:08.860 Their military is, uh, incredibly degraded following Ukraine's valiant efforts to defend itself.

00:18:15.820 The, the, the reason Russia seems to have a good hand is because everybody seems to think 0.71

00:18:22.260 Russia has a good hand, but they don't. 0.93

00:18:24.540 And if the United States were to, uh, send the, the quantity and quality of military hardware

00:18:33.620 support that Ukraine needs, um, there is no question that Russia can be halted in its tracks 0.52

00:18:40.820 and effectively defanged for a generation.

00:18:43.700 Uh, they're not, they're not that powerful.

00:18:46.400 They, they are just vicious and they seem to have the ear of the president.

00:18:50.740 And if you look at the, the, the ink on the initial plan for peace in Ukraine, it reads

00:18:58.040 as though Russia wrote it.

00:18:59.320 And we give Russia and Vladimir Putin way too much credit and way too much latitude.

00:19:03.920 If the United States wanted to put its foot down, this war could be over like the Trump

00:19:07.900 administration says it could be, and it could be done on terms favorable to Ukraine.

00:19:12.100 It's the fact that the United States is giving Russia so much leash, uh, to, uh, conduct such 0.94

00:19:19.140 vile operations, uh, whether it's a military or stealing children on mass.

00:19:24.300 Um, it's a stain on the U S foreign policy record.

00:19:29.920 Well, there was a point where Trump did threaten to send tomahawks and that clearly got Putin's 0.91

00:19:37.820 attention.

00:19:38.800 Mm-hmm.

00:19:40.120 Mm-hmm.

00:19:40.580 Yeah, absolutely.

00:19:41.860 Um, Russia is vulnerable.

00:19:43.800 They are not that strong.

00:19:45.180 They're just picking on the weak kid in the class, but the weak kid is, is turning out

00:19:49.700 to be a bit of a hero here, despite his modest size.

00:19:52.760 Um, so, you know, you made the point earlier.

00:19:55.160 I want to go back to, you know, why has Russia and excuse me, why have Europe and Canada

00:20:00.380 not done more?

00:20:02.080 You know, we say we're great friends of Ukraine.

00:20:03.720 Ukraine needs all its territory back.

00:20:05.040 Like, why have we not done more?

00:20:06.260 And I think a lot of that comes back to the role of NATO.

00:20:09.820 Um, if you look actually at the game tape of how, uh, secretary of war, Pete Hegseth has

00:20:15.820 talked about Ukraine.

00:20:17.020 He has not ruled out the United States being comfortable in principle with a multinational

00:20:23.580 reassurance force being in Ukraine following a peace establishment to act as a deterrent against

00:20:32.520 Russian, uh, foreign, uh, continued military intervention.

00:20:36.140 What he has said is that it could not be done under the aegis of NATO, because as we know,

00:20:42.400 under the aegis of NATO's article five, an attack on one is an attack on all.

00:20:48.160 And the United States has no interest in involving itself in a European land war.

00:20:52.500 So you could see as part of the ongoing negotiations that are happening right now, you could see

00:20:58.700 Canada and Europe say, listen, we are each going to be contributing divisions, brigades,

00:21:04.400 whatever.

00:21:05.400 The moment there is a peace plan that is acceptable to Ukraine and it gets inked by Russia and

00:21:11.220 the U S we, the powers of Canada and Europe are moving our troops in material into Ukraine,

00:21:18.880 inside Ukraine with their blessing and support to act as a deterrent.

00:21:22.780 And the terms would be that is a non NATO deployment.

00:21:26.200 So that's one of the key things I'm looking for in this negotiation.

00:21:30.240 All right, let's take a break, break right there.

00:21:32.260 And when we come back, we'll talk more about what Canada can and can't do militarily and

00:21:37.120 on other fronts to help Ukraine back in moments.

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00:22:24.560 This is Tristan Hopper, the host of Canada Did What?

00:22:27.500 Where we unpack the biggest, weirdest and wildest political moments in Canadian history

00:22:32.180 you thought you knew and tell you what really happened.

00:22:35.780 Stick around at the end of the episode to hear a sample of one of our favorite episodes.

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00:22:44.260 It's everywhere you get podcasts.

00:22:46.420 So, Matt, before the break, you were talking about the fact that Canadian troops could end

00:22:50.320 up there.

00:22:50.960 And I'm going to say this as a longtime supporter of the Canadian Armed Forces, many friends and

00:22:57.680 family members there, a very short stint, had a cup of coffee as a reservist, been around

00:23:03.960 the military my whole life.

00:23:04.980 So, I say that as someone that supports it.

00:23:08.000 There's not a lot that we can do right now.

00:23:11.020 Our biggest deployment at the moment is Operation Reassurance in Latvia.

00:23:16.020 And that is a strain for us using just 2,000, 2,000 troops.

00:23:22.520 And they're in Latvia because Latvia is a NATO member.

00:23:26.100 And we all believe that Putin, if allowed to take over Ukraine, would then turn towards

00:23:31.920 Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, et cetera.

00:23:33.720 He wants the USSR band back, if he can get it.

00:23:38.380 So, what can we properly do militarily to assist Ukraine, either to win the war or to secure

00:23:49.200 the peace, when we have allowed ourselves to become so weak, so depressingly weak?

00:23:56.100 Yeah, Canada has this tradition of completely disarming itself between major conflicts.

00:24:03.620 And it's a lesson we just refuse to learn, Brian.

00:24:06.280 As a former Army reservist as well, I mean, it drives me nuts.

00:24:10.540 In terms of what Canada can do for Ukraine, I mean, you mentioned that Opry Assurance features

00:24:16.120 about 2,000 men and their material.

00:24:19.040 Some of whom had to buy their own helmets.

00:24:21.520 I know, I know.

00:24:22.900 What a travesty.

00:24:24.320 So, Canada struggles to deploy a full-fang brigade group. 0.89

00:24:31.980 And that's a problem.

00:24:33.000 Even the United Kingdom would struggle to field more than a couple of brigades, per comments

00:24:38.320 from some of its brass recently.

00:24:41.420 So, you are very right to point out that the West has dug itself a hole that it needs to

00:24:47.060 dig itself out of from the ability to deploy, deter, and defend its interests and allies.

00:24:55.180 And so, the only thing we can do about that right now, it's like the saying, best time

00:24:59.460 to plant the trees 20 years ago, second best time is today.

00:25:02.400 All we can do is focus on the future.

00:25:04.260 We can focus on the major investments that, to its credit, the Kearney government has put

00:25:08.600 on the table for recruiting and re-equipping and re-arming the Canadian military.

00:25:15.040 That's what we can do for the medium and long term.

00:25:17.720 What we can do right now is we can focus on things like deploying frozen Russian assets,

00:25:26.280 like working with our European partners to try and tip the scales in Ukraine's favor on

00:25:31.380 peace settlements.

00:25:32.120 And going forward, you know, the West has to ask itself if it actually is prepared to

00:25:38.100 defend its civilization.

00:25:40.080 Really, that's what it comes down to, I think.

00:25:42.440 You know, if all the, think of all the wealth in Europe, Canada, and the United States, and 0.74

00:25:49.140 all of mainland Europe is being held hostage by one fascist thug with an economy just barely

00:25:56.020 bigger than Canada's. 0.85

00:25:56.940 That's how bad it's gotten, to your point.

00:26:00.180 So at some point, the West has to decide if it wants to defend its civilization or not.

00:26:05.060 And if it does, I think they need to take a serious look, all the powers in the West,

00:26:09.460 apparently without the United States, at least for now, at how can we deploy men and material

00:26:14.580 into Ukraine so that if they are attacked again, which is very likely to be the case if

00:26:22.840 the peace plan gets implemented the way it's currently designed.

00:26:26.060 So when Russia reinvades, if they're given favorable, quote unquote, peace terms, which

00:26:32.180 is really just a ceasefire to rearm themselves, what are we going to do about it?

00:26:37.120 And if we're not prepared to defend our democratic friends and allies, that is a future that

00:26:44.260 looks very, very dim.

00:26:47.120 Well, we love to talk a big game about it.

00:26:49.500 And we talk about how Canada has the largest Ukrainian diaspora, and we are such great

00:26:54.580 friends.

00:26:55.180 And then I'll tell you what we've sent them militarily.

00:26:58.620 We sent them gender-based analysis advisors.

00:27:01.940 I know.

00:27:03.120 I wish that was a joke.

00:27:05.460 I wish that was satire.

00:27:07.260 But the Canadian Armed Forces sent gender advisors to Ukraine to perform gender-based plus analysis

00:27:13.520 of things like minesweeping and building their military.

00:27:17.540 I'm sorry, when someone's shooting at you, that's not what you need.

00:27:22.040 I know there have been other pieces of material.

00:27:24.540 Some of it took far too long.

00:27:26.620 Some of it had to be dragged out of them.

00:27:29.220 I still don't know if the shells at CFB Dunder and that the Ukrainians were begging us for

00:27:35.480 were ever shipped over or not.

00:27:37.400 They said, send us what you have and we'll use what is functional.

00:27:41.280 But we have continually talked bigger than we've been able to deliver.

00:27:48.640 And sadly, that wasn't the case.

00:27:51.200 When Germany needed a peace force, a peace stabilization force, we easily had thousands.

00:28:01.100 It would have been over 10,000 troops at one point in West Germany.

00:28:04.720 And that was in peacetime.

00:28:08.460 That was during the Cold War.

00:28:09.800 Yeah.

00:28:10.220 Canada has become, on military matters with very few exceptions, fundamentally unserious as a power.

00:28:17.040 To your point about sending gender advisors to a hot conflict, it's embarrassing. 0.75

00:28:23.080 But, you know, we do have a way forward.

00:28:26.640 We do have massive investments that, to its credit, the Kearney government's put on the table.

00:28:30.220 It's going to take a while to get there.

00:28:32.080 And this is a decades-long bipartisan failure on Canada's part.

00:28:37.320 And it's one we did before World War I.

00:28:40.140 We did it before World War II.

00:28:42.120 We did it.

00:28:44.040 We consistently disarm ourselves between major conflicts.

00:28:47.840 Now we need to really learn that lesson.

00:28:49.700 And not waste this crisis in terms of it being a hinge moment for Canada's posture on the world stage.

00:28:56.880 Because we need to do so, so much better.

00:28:59.800 Let's talk about the land in the peace plan.

00:29:04.820 You've got, you mentioned that there are areas that the Russians don't even have that the peace plan would suggest that Ukraine give up.

00:29:15.760 There are areas that Russia has seized that they clearly do not want to return.

00:29:22.040 But you suggested that we go all the way back to having Crimea as part of Ukraine.

00:29:28.740 I don't think it ever should have left.

00:29:31.500 But we didn't even raise a voice, never mind a gun, to stop that.

00:29:35.820 Stephen Harper is the closest, I guess, we had with telling off Putin in, I think it was Australia.

00:29:41.320 I get the concern on lands Russia doesn't have.

00:29:48.420 How does Ukraine get back lands that Russia does have, given the current situation?

00:29:53.740 Whether it's Donetsk or Kurzon.

00:29:57.880 Before we even get to Crimea, how do you get those lands back?

00:30:01.880 I would say two things.

00:30:05.140 Just for context, the land components of the peace plan are so bad that it contemplates Russia, quote unquote, not preventing Ukraine from using the critical inland Dnieper River to move goods, services, and people through its supply chains and its international trade routes.

00:30:31.020 We're talking about an inland major geo-economic asset that is Ukrainian.

00:30:41.440 And the quote unquote peace plan says Russia will please allow Ukraine to use Ukraine's river to do Ukrainian things.

00:30:50.380 The land elements of the proposed peace plan are completely out of control.

00:30:56.300 And that is the keynote example.

00:30:59.060 In terms of mechanically how to retake those lands, honestly, you wonder how possible it is to retake all that control.

00:31:10.760 If you're looking at this, we've talked about aspirationally, we should be a world that works according to the rule of law.

00:31:19.420 We should have borders determined not by armed conflict.

00:31:24.440 With the situation we have in eastern Ukraine right now, open question about how much of that can be retaken by force of arms in light of how tightly Russia is dug in.

00:31:37.200 I would answer your question, not from a military perspective, but from a political perspective.

00:31:44.480 What we don't want to do is we don't want to negotiate against ourselves and our allies by saying, oh, those lands are written off now.

00:31:52.640 As part of the settlement, we have to go in to any peace process, which I don't think should be on the table right now.

00:32:04.360 I think we should be arming Ukraine to the teeth and letting them disarm Russia for a generation. 1.00

00:32:08.280 But if we're going to have peace talks, the lands currently in question represent negotiating against Ukraine and against Western principles of self-determination.

00:32:19.800 So militarily, how do you get those lands back?

00:32:23.360 I don't know.

00:32:24.040 I do know Russia, excuse me, that Ukraine would fight like hell for them if they had the weapon systems that they needed. 0.75

00:32:29.020 And that would be good enough for now to continue degrading Russia to tip the balance of influence in favor of Ukraine and the West and not in Russia's favor.

00:32:45.940 Are these oil or mineral rich lands, is that what's driving Putin to want them?

00:32:51.720 Or is it just, you know, rapacious greed for land and, as I said earlier, putting the USSR band back together? 0.91

00:33:01.340 Yeah, I would say yes to your question of whether they're mineral rich or it's just rapacious greed.

00:33:07.100 There are meaningful deposits of rare earth in eastern Ukraine, which is important for both military and non-military economic development and supply chains.

00:33:18.880 And you saw that maybe six months ago now, Trump tried to make a deal with Zelensky to deliver more military support and economic development support in exchange for vast mineral resources in Ukraine.

00:33:36.120 So that's definitely a feature animating some of this.

00:33:38.740 You see, you know, you see this in Europe, whereas you see a lot of equivalent situations in Africa over petrol.

00:33:46.760 You know, oil rich regions are always kind of at war.

00:33:50.680 So it's an element here, for sure.

00:33:52.640 And it's an element that the United States has bellied up to the trough on that, too, in a way that, you know, happens commonly in international relations,

00:33:59.960 but was done in a particularly flagrant and undignified way when we're talking about a strategic partner and Western ally like Ukraine.

00:34:08.860 Well, he essentially said, we'll help you, but we'll get the deposits afterwards.

00:34:17.380 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:34:19.420 And even the terms of a military package of the likes I would like to see, which is very large, robust, gives Ukraine the opportunity to contemplate going back on the offensive in those eastern regions. 0.59

00:34:33.820 You know, there's every opportunity for that to be incredibly beneficial for the United States, where essentially you're lending slash giving money to Ukraine to buy predominantly U.S. military hardware.

00:34:48.760 And so that is positive for the U.S. industrial base.

00:34:52.140 It's in the United States' self-interest.

00:34:54.140 It's in the interest of Ukraine. 0.86

00:34:56.760 It's going to take a while, Brian, but we're going to figure out eventually why, under the Trump administration, U.S. has gone so pro-Russia.

00:35:04.860 And I suspect, you know, it's a combination of, you know, really liking the look of autocracy, really liking the look of, you know, the strongman look.

00:35:15.700 And maybe other nefarious things, but, you know, there hasn't really been anything meaningfully proven about Trump and Russia.

00:35:24.360 But this is also fundamentally pro-Russian, the way that the peace plan has set the table for this discussion that I would suppose it needs to be completely scuttled.

00:35:36.660 Look, not to defend Trump, but he wears a lot of stuff with Russia. 0.64

00:35:40.700 Yeah.

00:35:40.800 But Europe is much closer to this, and they won't even give up European oil and gas to help Ukraine.

00:35:48.060 And Canada refused to sell our own liquefied natural gas to help get people off of Russian oil and gas.

00:35:57.500 So, you know, it can be a bit rich for any of us to say, well, he's obviously pro-Russian.

00:36:02.620 If you're buying Russian oil and gas, you're funding the war.

00:36:07.380 I completely agree.

00:36:08.000 Europeans and others who've spoken up about this have refused to, you know, wean themselves off of that.

00:36:16.580 We could have helped, and we chose not to.

00:36:19.060 I think there's just so much hypocrisy.

00:36:21.920 It angers me tremendously. 0.91

00:36:24.680 There is a lot of hypocrisy.

00:36:26.200 The world has responded to Ukraine with great, a lot of great words and a lot of bad action.

00:36:35.320 How much of this, you were talking about the military industrial base in the United States.

00:36:42.480 A lot of this war is being fought with drones, but I don't think the war can be won with drones, though.

00:36:49.660 But this war will be studied because of its use of drones.

00:36:54.860 This war will be studied for years to come.

00:36:57.240 Yeah.

00:36:57.620 That's another thing that Ukraine represents is what you might call a sandbox for technological development of defense systems.

00:37:06.720 The quick iterations and the availability of funds to be pushed down to combatant commands so that they can iterate quickly and make purchases quickly has been a real lesson for the entire West.

00:37:24.800 And I've got a piece coming up in the Jerusalem Post actually soon about how Canada can learn from some of its great allies, a lot of lessons about how to effectively use all this new money that Mr. Carney has pushed down.

00:37:39.360 And one of the theaters it can learn from is Ukraine, how quickly the iteration happens on defense tech development and how low you have to push the money down the chain of command to enable purchasing in real time.

00:37:52.240 It's pretty phenomenal what's happening in Ukraine right now, just from a defense technology perspective.

00:37:58.340 So you're having junior officers or NCOs making purchase orders?

00:38:04.640 Is that what you're saying?

00:38:05.980 I don't know about junior officers and NCOs, but you do have junior officers and NCOs participating in the adoption and piloting of technologies and informing decisions at a combatant commander level.

00:38:18.900 So we're talking, you know, maybe brigade level where there is there is money available for purchasing technologies much lower down the chain of command so that those folks who are enabled with this financing to buy the resources are actually connected with the troops who are iterating on the technology in real time and theater.

00:38:39.260 It's just a, it's a, it's a, it's a rapid way to iterate on defense tech and what's happening in Ukraine is pretty unparalleled.

00:38:49.720 You've, you've made clear that you'd prefer to see Ukraine be armed to the teeth. 0.99

00:38:54.680 Do you see anything on the horizon that makes you think someone will go that route or are we stumbling towards a bad peace deal and trying to make it into a palatable one?

00:39:06.280 I think the latter, Brian, I think the, I think the West will not be on its front foot militarily for another decade.

00:39:14.680 It takes a long time to build the defense industrial conditions to produce war winning hardware at scale.

00:39:23.940 I think we've got a bad peace deal on the table.

00:39:26.540 Um, I think Ukraine appears resigned to try and make it a less bad peace deal.

00:39:34.220 Um, and it appears to me, I wish I didn't think this, but it appears to me that we're going back to a Budapest memorandum, uh, style of security guarantee that will enable Russia to take a breath, regroup, rearm and come back at Ukraine. 0.75

00:39:50.440 Um, that is what this looks like to me right now.

00:39:53.660 And it's, uh, it's unnecessary, unwise.

00:39:56.360 And I think the most likely scenario.

00:39:59.280 Well, I've been hoping for a long time that, uh, Vladimir Putin would simply go away.

00:40:03.320 That hasn't worked out.

00:40:04.780 Uh, and I was hoping that long before he took, uh, started this war before he took Crimea without so much as a, a shot being fired.

00:40:14.180 So, um, uh, I can hope it as much as I want.

00:40:18.100 It won't make it come true.

00:40:19.580 Matt, thanks for the conversation today.

00:40:21.860 Hey, thank you, Brian.

00:40:22.960 Full comment is a post-media podcast.

00:40:24.940 My name is Brian Lilly, your host.

00:40:26.440 This episode was produced by Andre Pruth.

00:40:28.540 Theme music by Bryce Hall.

00:40:30.240 Kevin Libin is the executive producer.

00:40:32.200 Please help us out by hitting subscribe, leaving us a review, or telling your friends about us.

00:40:37.160 Thanks for listening.

00:40:38.040 Until next time, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:40:39.560 Here's that clip from Canada Did What?

00:40:47.220 I promised you.

00:40:51.060 Two years later, he was still opposition leader, and he lost again to the Pearson Liberals.

00:40:57.660 Despite this, Diefenbaker doesn't resign as leader of the Progressive Conservatives,

00:41:02.920 which put the party in an awkward situation that hasn't really happened before.

00:41:07.240 The typical rules of a Canadian political party were that you stayed leader until you died or resigned.

00:41:13.960 And if you lost twice in a row, you were supposed to do the honorable thing and step aside.

00:41:19.400 But Diefenbaker just didn't, prompting the party to take the unprecedented step of forcing a party convention in Toronto

00:41:26.900 for the singular purpose of crowbarring Diefenbaker out of the leadership.

00:41:31.320 Diefenbaker shows up, pretends everything is fine, and gives a finger-wagging speech chastising his fellow party members for their disloyalty.

00:41:41.060 I followed this party when I didn't disagree, when I didn't agree with policies.

00:41:47.640 I gave loyalty to leader after leader.

00:41:51.820 Because I believe that there is no other way.

00:41:55.740 He's politely cheered by the assembled conservatives, and then abjectly humiliated in their subsequent leadership vote.

00:42:02.460 On the first ballot, Diefenbaker gets a distant fifth place, and even then he refuses to admit defeat.

Full Comment - December 01, 2025

No Western country seriously wants Ukraine to win

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