Full Comment - Our ‘remarkable period of peace’ could be coming to an end

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00:00:44.980 hello i'm anthony fury thank you for joining us for the latest episode of full comment

00:00:54.360 please consider subscribing to our show if you haven't already

00:00:57.440 war has commenced in ukraine but what is the scope of that war is vladimir putin taking the

00:01:03.860 whole country over or is it less than that or is it more than that what does it mean for us in canada

00:01:09.300 to what degree should we be involved to what degree can we reasonably be involved how will

00:01:14.520 this end and is this the beginning of world war three i'm really grateful that general tom lawson

00:01:19.760 has agreed to join us today general lawson served 40 years in the canadian armed forces before retiring

00:01:24.780 in 2015 and his final position was as chief of the defense staff the highest position the head of the

00:01:30.440 canadian forces during his time as cds general lawson commenced operation reassurance in 2014 which saw

00:01:37.460 canadian forces move into eastern europe to bolster nato and serve as a check on russian aggression

00:01:42.680 let's get his insights general lawson welcome to the show thanks for having me anthony thanks so

00:01:48.840 much for joining us what what what a fascinating time it really is uh probably uh hasn't been a more

00:01:57.740 uh mercurial leader mixing with nato uh than over the last year and and we're kind of at where the

00:02:06.560 crux of that takes us yeah and i say fascinating but i should of course also say scary in many other

00:02:12.100 words in that direction of course uh late wednesday night our time vladimir putin announces a military

00:02:17.340 operation within minutes of his announcement concluding it became clear that uh this was not

00:02:22.320 just limited to eastern regions of the country that there were attacks on the capital beginning

00:02:26.240 boots on the ground throughout the country what did you think when you watched this initially unfold

00:02:31.700 well we've been kind of watching it unfold in slow motion for nearly two months now haven't we and

00:02:39.180 uh there was a a thought um amongst uh observers um that this could be a bluff to achieve strategic

00:02:50.680 uh outcomes uh that couldn't be achieved in any other way so quickly uh and yet um you know all

00:02:58.000 intelligence pointed to this being far more than a bluff so what's happened overnight really um

00:03:04.300 is almost an inevitable outcome of the movements and troop troop uh and uh equipment movement that

00:03:12.120 has been happening over the last couple of months what would the decision makers be doing right now

00:03:16.620 the cds saw this unfold in real time of course uh one has to brief i guess the prime minister cabinet

00:03:23.200 the defense minister on on what's going on what the intel says what the options are that's available

00:03:27.900 what is this kind of behind the scenes nuts and bolts of what transpires at a time like this

00:03:32.700 well it's interesting although nato has uh you know 27 member nations of which canada is

00:03:40.620 you know amongst the most important top uh five six seven um canada has a a greater interest than

00:03:49.340 than many uh nations uh because we have so many canadians who uh declare uh a ukrainian background

00:03:57.780 you don't get about a million people which is the second largest um diaspora in the world other than

00:04:04.100 uh than ukraine so this is uh this hits canadians hard and um therefore back in 2014 when there was the

00:04:13.300 grab of crimea and the war started in donbass about uh eight months later um the prime minister harper at

00:04:20.820 the time was uh was very very interested in a strong response and uh made it very clear to nato

00:04:28.260 that we would uh back up our strong talk uh with troops and ships and aircraft and that's largely

00:04:36.900 what began as you mentioned uh in operation reassurance back in 2014 and has continued for

00:04:43.060 eight years now and in fact been expanded we've got uh company size uh troop troops together with a

00:04:50.580 leader in in latvia as part of operational reassurance and and now uh now that it has turned into

00:04:58.500 something else not just a conflict in donbass and the loss of crimea but perhaps the the threat to all

00:05:06.020 of ukraine uh this prime minister uh and the chief of defense together with the minister of defense will

00:05:13.060 again make very clear and have made clear to nato that we're in we're into discussions on uh on

00:05:20.180 where we go in in reassuring uh you know first of all in uniting as an alliance a nato alliance but

00:05:27.620 also reassuring those countries on the eastern flank of nato that are most concerned about what is

00:05:34.020 happening in ukraine so all efforts all discussions will be to develop plans as we've seen more canadian

00:05:41.140 troops are going to go over there to bolster those we have in the eastern regions right now what about

00:05:47.220 options when it comes particularly to reassurance for those folks in ukraine who don't like what's

00:05:52.660 going on right now because of course ukraine not a nato country and things happen so quickly within

00:05:57.540 the first 24 hours uh we see so much going on in the capital uh various different reports of different

00:06:04.500 airports or naval bases being taken over by russian forces very quickly with really within hours it seems

00:06:11.380 like so much was already done just in in the first few hours in the first day absolutely it almost seems

00:06:18.500 trite to say that for the most part ukrainian military um uh those leading the response to russia and

00:06:30.740 those actually carrying it out boots on ground and the leaders uh of the uh regime the government

00:06:36.740 in ukraine are kind of on their own at this point certainly uh intelligence will be sent to them uh

00:06:43.700 equipment has been sent to them you know they've been provided pieces of fairly significant punching

00:06:50.340 equipment like stinger missiles to bring down uh russian aircraft uh and and you know early reports

00:06:56.740 are that some have been brought down already you know it's difficult to determine the veracity of

00:07:02.180 early reports but it looks like they are inflicting on their own uh some uh some price to russia even in

00:07:09.300 these early hours but to your greater point and that is what can nato what can canada do for those on the

00:07:16.420 ground in ukraine right now it's very little other than uh you know sanctions and other things that could

00:07:23.860 have an effect in the long term but for someone like you or i on the ground in ukraine right now who

00:07:30.260 have leaned towards the west for really since the early 90s away from russian towards the west i think

00:07:37.140 it would leave them feeling uh fairly unsupported by the west however i will say that this is part of a

00:07:44.820 choreography uh between the superpowers if if we can say that russia is a superpower they're definitely a

00:07:51.300 fading superpower but if we include them uh as we're going to have to for the next little while

00:07:56.660 anyway as uh as an important uh power in the world uh there is a choreography between nato and russia that

00:08:06.420 all efforts will be made to make sure russian soldiers don't meet up with nato soldiers because

00:08:11.940 that now has us all looking into an abyss that we're not sure of the effects on the entire world so

00:08:18.980 that's that's kind of why biden and nato has made it clear that we will be sanctioning russia there will

00:08:26.100 be huge sanctions and huge prices to pay but they do not include western uh soldiers meeting russian

00:08:33.940 soldiers over ukraine now when it comes to operation reassurance how many and to what degree and at what

00:08:39.540 times were troops in ukraine because we did hear that there was some canadian presence in ukraine involving

00:08:45.540 military personnel and they were quickly withdrawn and they were moved i guess from the the western

00:08:50.100 border into poland that's right so we've had hundreds uh in uh separated uh and allotted to

00:08:58.020 various bases uh to help with basic training uh you know uh ukraine has about 215 000 active personnel

00:09:08.340 a lot of those will be recent recruits they've got 12 months of prescription so when they come in

00:09:13.140 you need to get them up to speed and canada's been helping with that they've also got 250 000 reservists

00:09:20.340 all of whom will have minimal training so canada has been part of the nato response to help them

00:09:28.820 bring their military to a higher level than it was at in 2014 and largely i think they've done that i think

00:09:35.220 russia will meet some of the people uh some of the soldiers that have been trained in basic military skills

00:09:42.100 uh to a much higher level um but uh but those few hundred of course were only trainers uh they

00:09:48.660 they were never supplied uh with their own weaponry with an idea that they would help with uh and defense

00:09:55.380 of uh of ukraine proper so that's why they were taken out once intelligence indicated that there was a

00:10:01.220 likelihood of an invasion general lawson you mentioned uh prime minister stephen harper former prime minister

00:10:06.900 uh wanting to have a very firm response back in 2014 he's released a statement uh just the other day

00:10:13.460 saying immediately after of course uh russia went into ukraine there can be no further compromises no

00:10:19.620 naive resets or diplomatic niceties dictators must be dealt with like all bullies with resolute unity and

00:10:27.140 force now when we talk about the nato response i see the unity there what do you make of the invocation of

00:10:32.980 the phrase force and we've heard other people talk about that uh to your point and i think president

00:10:38.260 biden has signaled there's not going to be any particular military response right now prime minister

00:10:42.260 trudeau uh similar tune pretty much from all of nato but we hear that word force brought up a little bit

00:10:47.620 here and there what what can that possibly mean well i really don't think uh prime minister harper in

00:10:55.380 that comment or uh really any nato leaders right now are speaking about force being applied uh to

00:11:03.220 russian soldiers as they enter ukraine uh that may be the strong desire of uh people in on on the ground

00:11:11.060 and in leadership positions in ukraine right now but it's been very clear uh not only over recent months

00:11:17.380 but recent years um that ukraine uh it has a special uh status although they lean west and are on a

00:11:28.980 development program to become a part of nato they are not yet part of nato so the the idea of the use

00:11:34.740 of force i don't think refers to uh nato troops um responding to to uh russian aggression in ukraine

00:11:42.740 however and i think that this needs to be made very clear and it has been by statements today

00:11:47.860 by president biden but also by the secretary general of nato uh and the um the head of the

00:11:55.220 european union uh that if uh to to quote the head of the european union if one single square meter of

00:12:03.780 nato territory is attacked by russians it will be met with force and and i think um as strongly as that

00:12:12.180 said it will be received uh by uh putin uh he will not risk that i really don't believe uh i think if

00:12:20.340 he did and the full force of nato came to bear i think that it would be the end of russia as uh at

00:12:27.540 the nation that we right now that we know right now so back in 2004 ukraine had something known as

00:12:33.220 the orange revolution which was seen by many people as a sign that they were going to become uh further

00:12:38.660 westernized after that in a symbol that they wanted to embrace europe and that they would be on the

00:12:42.740 pathway to nato and when you were chief of defense staff here in canada you you were part of uh

00:12:47.860 discussions around the plans for ukraine to join nato and there were some people particularly putin

00:12:53.460 who absolutely did not want that to happen and it did not yet come to happen many people who wanted

00:12:57.620 to see it happen what what went on there because i guess to your point were they members of nato now

00:13:01.860 we probably wouldn't be in this situation right well well i i think there was a uh perhaps an

00:13:08.340 underestimation of um whether or not putin saw ukraine as a red line uh it's leaning towards the west as a

00:13:19.220 red line uh and as with so many other former uh countries within the ussr romania hungary czech republic

00:13:26.740 called the baltics uh as they became uh members uh went through their own development programs and

00:13:32.820 became members of uh nato i think there was a belief especially in 2014 after the protests uh that saw

00:13:40.420 the uh uh the ousting of their president in came poroshenko uh you know the protests were called euro

00:13:46.740 medan at the time um there was a clear indication that ukraine's national policy would be euro atlantic

00:13:54.580 integration with the european union and with nato uh and so at that time uh nato responded as they did

00:14:01.220 to as they have traditionally to every nation uh as they make it clear they want to join nato that

00:14:07.780 you've got a program to go through and we should be careful not to get the impression that ukraine is uh

00:14:17.540 like most of the countries that are already in nato what i mean by that is you know although ukraine

00:14:23.700 uh is uh you know the second largest nation in europe second only to russia uh they they really

00:14:30.900 are in uh in dire straits uh economically i mean they've they've got a uh a gdp that places them 119th

00:14:41.700 in the world somewhere around the equivalent to el salvador the per capita income is

00:14:47.300 five thousand dollars they're the poorest country in europe very high poverty rates severe corruption

00:14:53.140 that continues and yet they've got many things going for them extensive farmland huge reserves of

00:14:59.860 uranium but they are not a nation that would have found it easy to declare in 2014 that they want to

00:15:08.100 be a member of nato and then quickly become a member of nato they would have to bring their military

00:15:13.780 under parliamentary control and believe it or not it really isn't under close uh civilian and

00:15:18.820 parliamentary control there are ties there but uh you know there there are all kinds of questions

00:15:24.500 that would have to be dealt with so you know that i think the idea that it was taking uh ukraine

00:15:31.060 quite a while to get into nato was just part of this process now there's a whole different calculus

00:15:36.820 that's going to have to go into uh decisions in the future i think if putin really wanted to make

00:15:43.540 it clear uh that uh the accession of ukraine into nato would be something that would have be have to be

00:15:50.100 put off into the distant future he could have won that concession i think that's me speculating uh but

00:15:56.020 if it was going to obviate the need for uh you know an invasion into ukraine i think it would have

00:16:02.420 been given to him it's too late now uh and i think in fact recent polls uh since uh january have

00:16:09.860 indicated that um the ukrainians and the ukraine population which is about you know the same size

00:16:16.500 as canada 41 million a few more than us uh really is leaning strongly towards uh even more strongly

00:16:24.340 towards joining uh eu and nato but but those discussions uh at some point in the future when the

00:16:31.540 the worst of this has taken place uh will be undertaken again with greater concern as to what

00:16:37.780 it means uh for world uh world peace well what does putin want out of ukraine and i think that's a

00:16:45.860 question that a lot of people have grappled with i know uh you got to know some of your counterparts

00:16:51.140 in russia uh and different uh individuals uh in the russian government and in the russian military

00:16:57.300 i think a lot of people thought okay he's just interested in these eastern regions because there

00:17:01.940 are different sort of historical ties to russia then we see stuff going on in the capital a lot

00:17:06.820 of question marks around that what do you believe is the goal out of all of this yeah that is the

00:17:12.500 question what does putin want yeah you've mentioned uh the fact that uh i was getting to be a fairly good

00:17:19.380 friends uh with my russian counterpart uh general valerie jerasimov back in 2012 2013 2014 when we had

00:17:28.340 fun things to discuss like uh search and rescue in the arctic region and uh and you know really good

00:17:35.460 things that appeal to everybody's better angels and then of course in 2014 he was on the uh on the

00:17:42.580 sanctions list and uh in fact he remains the chief of defense even though in canada we see chiefs of

00:17:48.820 defense in and out three or four years uh valerie jerasimov a couple years older than me is still in

00:17:54.420 uh in control however even though he's probably uh planning most of the strategy being used um

00:18:02.740 and employed by putin or under putin's orders right now you know for instance uh he's uh uh been seen to be

00:18:11.460 the developer of the jerasimov doctrine which really is uh you know this hybrid warfare where

00:18:17.220 you use not only military but disinformation technology cyber warfare little green men all 1.00

00:18:23.140 sort of total war and he is now applying that but to say that he would have any effect on putin in his

00:18:32.420 decisions uh regarding whether or not to invade uh ukraine really i think uh overestimates

00:18:41.460 uh the effect that anyone in the duma or uh anywhere else in the military can have on putin at this

00:18:48.740 point you know we saw a really remarkable thing happen on monday when when uh the security council

00:18:55.380 was called together by putin and one by one he asked them whether or not it was a a good smart idea

00:19:02.820 to recognize the independence of these self-proclaimed uh nations of uh of the eastern ukraine

00:19:09.860 and when when the spy chief uh got up uh and and indicated well you know probably not uh spy chief

00:19:18.740 sergey nirashkin uh said uh you know i think maybe it's it's a good idea to give the west more time to

00:19:25.940 to respond to uh some of our dictates uh he was dressed down in the most remarkable sense this is his

00:19:32.900 spy chief you just don't do that i mean good leaders uh anywhere in any democracy and most

00:19:39.380 dictatorships in the world will seek the wisest counsel of their top advisors and here uh before

00:19:47.220 the entire world he was dressing down his spy chief so to get back to your question what does he want

00:19:53.060 i think we let's speculate for a little while you know um does he really want to suffer the sort of

00:20:00.020 sanctions that he's going to suffer in the next year or two as a result of a full invasion of ukraine 0.98

00:20:06.740 does you know that the estimate is that he's going to lose you know upwards of 10 000 troops

00:20:12.660 does he want ukraine inside the russian uh sphere of influence that badly or is this a distraction

00:20:20.580 as a result of a terrible economy that's falling in pieces does it uh shore up his uh uh his strength

00:20:27.860 amongst uh the oligarchs and others that kind of keep him in power what does he want and and you

00:20:34.820 know i i think what he wants in the short term is very quickly he wants to use uh a military strategy of

00:20:43.460 you know what the u.s would call shock and awe to create despair in ukraine and as quickly as possible

00:20:49.380 two or three days at best uh established uh air superiority and pound away to create this despair

00:20:57.060 and put in a puppet government and then back away you know sort of give some sops to the west and

00:21:02.180 say okay we're going to give half the territory back uh and then we can discuss you know over

00:21:07.060 coming months the release of these sanctions but strategically what will do what will that do for

00:21:13.940 him in the long run there will be no nations uh in you know the rest of the world who will see

00:21:20.260 uh putin uh while he's in leadership as a sound strategic partner not even china or or members

00:21:28.420 of the brick nations you know brazil russia china india south africa none of them will see him as a good

00:21:37.140 international partner so where is he going in the long run with this that's an open question

00:21:43.300 let's just pause for one moment we'll be back with more full comment after these messages

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00:23:10.820 terms and conditions apply visit bemo.com vi porter to learn more general tom lawson you mentioned shock

00:23:20.100 and awe going on just lots of stuff bombarding ukraine russia uh hitting them in multiple ways obviously uh we

00:23:27.700 see those videos of uh various uh various planes flying over the communities uh there's bombing we

00:23:34.660 see kids cowering in the subway systems to hide from those bombings and a lot of canadians a lot of

00:23:39.620 people uh their hearts going out to them saying what can we do there's been various civil efforts already

00:23:44.740 with uh indications of charities you can give to to make sure uh people who are fleeing can can have

00:23:50.180 access to food the prime minister's talked about the sanctions a lot of people still wanting to see

00:23:56.180 more being done what would your message be to those folks who are looking at these scenes and they see

00:24:02.100 uh things that you know really upset them and they go we'd like to see a different response we want to

00:24:07.300 help these people well i think in the short term you know we've had a month to two months uh as a western

00:24:16.180 alliance nato uh to provide weaponry that ukraine has been asking for uh and often being told no

00:24:25.380 uh we we saw that turning to yes in in the most recent you know four or five weeks so um you know

00:24:33.220 now they kind of have to respond to the russian invasion using that uh you know the efforts that

00:24:40.580 we've already talked about over recent years where their military has been brought to a higher level

00:24:46.100 it now will be up to them uh to employ tactics uh to blunt the worst of the effects of this uh russian 0.87

00:24:55.540 invasion but i i think the issue in the longer run is uh what can be done uh by the west uh to support

00:25:08.820 the best outcomes that we could hope for ukraine i think there were into a very frustrating longer

00:25:17.620 term set of diplomatic actions that include these sanctions very tough very firm sanctions you know

00:25:24.980 my assumption is as we talked about that putin would not continue any inertia beyond uh ukraine and

00:25:34.500 into nato nations because that brings up a whole other discussion uh but that still doesn't answer

00:25:40.580 your question what can we do what can can members of the western nations who uh have such fellow feeling

00:25:46.980 right now for those in ukraine do i i think it really becomes this diplomatic effort to accept uh some of the

00:25:56.100 stock market losses that are sure to occur as a result of this to support our governments in their very

00:26:02.740 firm responses even when oil prices go up uh you see within germany the uh uh you know the support for

00:26:10.660 their chancellor as he shut down uh the uh the furtherance of the gas line project uh is remarkable

00:26:18.740 uh so you know although that's a frustrating thing to hear uh and many would like to hear how we would

00:26:24.020 be able to support them uh you know militarily i i really don't see that as the way ahead i think assuming

00:26:30.500 uh putin uh putin uh putin's invasion uh is uh blunted at some point and and comes to a standstill

00:26:39.300 either when he's replaced the current uh government with a puppet government or before that uh it will

00:26:46.180 be uh the effects of diplomatic diplomacy and economic sanctions uh that will lead us and ukraine to better

00:26:54.740 places all right i gotta ask because i said it in the introduction a lot of chatter about it on social

00:26:59.620 media and of course bad actors around the world keenly uh looking at this space and perhaps looking

00:27:04.580 to fill any vacuums going on right now do we see the beginnings of something like a world war three going

00:27:10.260 on right now so i i don't think so um you know i i think we can't even compare uh ukraine's uh military to

00:27:22.020 russians you know it's a uh it is probably about uh one-tenth uh the russian uh military uh on one

00:27:30.820 eighth of the budget uh and uh you know there's a full expectation um that what's going to happen

00:27:37.540 you know right now uh as russia employs this shock and awe and hopes for a quick turnover um you know

00:27:44.900 ukraine uh may surprise us uh they've got uh fighter aircraft you know they've got mig-29 fulcrums uh

00:27:52.340 sukhoi 27 flanker sort of the the generation of the f-15s not so much the f-18s or uh you know more

00:27:59.300 recent f-35s uh that the west has now but but they've got uh some aircraft that could inflict

00:28:06.100 some damage they've got mobile surface-to-air missile systems and and they've got a fairly

00:28:11.460 significant number of people in uniform with weaponry and with bullets but i think very

00:28:17.220 quickly russia is going to achieve air superiority and then ukraine's uh really only hope is to use a

00:28:23.620 sort of porcupine type defense and you know what i mean by that is a porcupine really doesn't inflict

00:28:30.820 massive damage on whatever it is it's being hunted by they hide under the bottom rung of the fence and

00:28:36.980 and try and fend off the worst bites um by making themselves hard to swallow and and that that can

00:28:44.020 carry on for months i mean if the ukrainian population and military are willing to allow

00:28:49.380 that you know take losses and willing to allow that then this can really be a very difficult thing

00:28:54.980 for putin to maintain a popular uh invasion but to your greater question can this uh can mistakes be

00:29:03.620 made and this could spill into a world war three this is first and foremost on the mind of nato leaders

00:29:11.620 uh and and that's why they continue to say yeah i mean there you've got a huge price to pay uh president

00:29:19.300 putin uh and and and you will start paying it today but recognize it doesn't come anywhere close

00:29:26.820 to the price you will pay if you set foot on a nato nation covered by article five so i you know i i

00:29:34.180 think that choreography remains in place uh in a way that will hold can mistakes be made can a missile fly

00:29:43.140 into nato territory uh and then require a response by nato that then leads to uh a putin who doesn't want

00:29:52.180 to back down from nato possibly does china watch very closely at uh the weak a response that some

00:30:01.220 would say uh he has met in his uh invasion of ukraine and therefore make a decision or the mistaken

00:30:09.380 decision i would believe to uh invade taiwan even though the united states has made it very clear that

00:30:15.460 no no that is a red line for us right not sure you know these are things that really start to

00:30:21.940 come into the international discussion that even two months ago uh seemed to be completely beyond

00:30:28.420 the pale yeah and i guess that's the frustration for some people watching from afar going okay the

00:30:34.020 u.s says you invade taiwan all right there'll be a military response there'll be something like that

00:30:38.900 not the case for ukraine and i know we've covered all the the nato issues and and and sort of the

00:30:44.820 long-standing issues with ukraine but i i still think there's a lot of people uh observing this feeling

00:30:50.420 like there's something not fair about that scenario yeah uh well let me tell you if if i was of ukrainian

00:30:59.220 background or was on the ground in ukraine right now i would have been far more heartened by a

00:31:05.140 response that had if not nato troops uh nato nations making unilateral decisions to come across

00:31:12.020 and bring their troops onto my soil completely understand it as canadians uh you know well we are

00:31:18.660 covered by alliance but even if we weren't we would look to our friends for a a a good strong response

00:31:25.700 that having been said there are massive strategic calculations to be made and i for one uh support

00:31:33.940 the ones uh being supported or being put forth by nato by you know united states as the leader of uh nato uh

00:31:42.100 and and i think really nato efforts uh should we should focus as they are right now on continuing to

00:31:49.380 bolster nato presence in the eastern flank of nato uh as we see these uh you know several hundred more

00:31:56.100 canadian soldiers moving forward uh into the baltics uh probably a canadian ship heading up there in the

00:32:02.180 next little while uh perhaps more f-18s don't know um f-18s are have regularly been into romania

00:32:08.660 uh and lithuania i believe uh in in recent months and years uh maybe we see that happen again but

00:32:16.180 all of that is with the idea of strengthening uh the resolve that putin will see if he's you know in

00:32:23.460 any way looking even further west than the western border of ukraine i want to talk for a minute about

00:32:29.380 canadian capacity in terms of our military and should a stronger response uh have been required or

00:32:36.100 should be required in the future to what degree do we have the capacity right now to fulfill that

00:32:41.940 i know you know this better than pretty much anybody the long processes of the f-35s naval

00:32:47.700 procurement uh even getting those new rifles for for the rangers up north that uh took quite some time

00:32:53.140 it seems like it seems like these processes and i take the point that you don't just snap your finger

00:32:58.020 and oh look there's a naval resupply vessel or look there's a bunch of fighter jets but still we go

00:33:03.060 does it need to take this long what's going on with these processes here and is this moment

00:33:09.060 something of a wake-up call or or something of an opportunity for us to uh us to give this stuff

00:33:14.980 a greater nudge you know i think so you know as a as a chief of defense far be it for me to

00:33:22.340 not completely agree with you immediately and say you know we should quickly double the size of

00:33:26.820 canada you know i i certainly would like to say that um when you leave uh the canadian borders and

00:33:34.020 spend some time around the world you know in nato and and see some of the difficulties that nato nations

00:33:43.540 uh are are dealing with in terms of budgets and equipment and and training um you know you come back to

00:33:52.740 canada feeling not satisfied i won't say that uh but but far more accepting of the status we have in

00:34:02.580 canada where as a nation we are almost entirely unthreatened by anyone i mean certainly uh across

00:34:10.020 the north pole we've got russia and they do send strategic aviation towards us and we're part of you

00:34:16.260 know uh norad uh in the united states could be a target uh for intercontinental ballistic missiles and

00:34:22.900 we're part of nato uh so canada remains a a tremendously dependable nation uh as as part of those um al

00:34:32.100 alliances so yeah i we're small i mean we have 65 000 regulars uh in a nation um you know look as we said

00:34:44.500 we have about the same population just a few million less in ukraine and yet uh we have about

00:34:51.060 a fifth of the size of their military now having said that uh we have uh three times their budget

00:34:59.460 so we spend three times their budget on a military one-fifth aside and and for that what we get is a

00:35:05.780 tremendously well-trained not large but tremendously well-trained army navy and air force and special

00:35:13.140 operations troops why am i saying that because you've asked the question does canada have the

00:35:19.540 ability now to send good army units good ships good air force uh resources over to bolster

00:35:29.060 whatever nido wants to do and the answer is yes not a lot but yes whatever we send over there will be

00:35:34.980 put in charge they'll be put in the lead you know whenever we've sent fighters uh you know when into

00:35:42.020 the yugoslav conflict or the libyan conflict our fighters even though they're f-18s they've been

00:35:46.980 around for 30 years they've been carefully updated and yeah they need to be replaced and i thank you for

00:35:52.420 plugging the f-35 because that is the right decision uh but uh but but they are good enough

00:35:57.940 right now to continue to lead uh do we have ready forces set to go we do i mean i guess i find myself

00:36:06.100 lamenting well why can't we have an aircraft carrier but then perhaps it's because i'm comparing us to the

00:36:10.660 u.s the uk france and i guess china but you're saying when you compare us to most other nato

00:36:16.580 countries we do actually have the ability to punch above our weight and our our our supply is actually

00:36:23.300 not that bad yeah uh that's right now i don't want to go too far because i really do think we've

00:36:30.180 you know we've been kind of stuck around a 20 billion dollar budget less than one percent of gdp for

00:36:35.540 for many years uh and and nato has the goal of getting to a two percent of gdp uh now it's a

00:36:43.380 little bit of discussion of gross domestic product and how much you spend on your military but it's a

00:36:47.780 little bit what you do with your military too so you know i i would love to see that up maybe not to

00:36:52.900 two percent in the short term but make it thirty a billion dollars increase the rig forces to a hundred

00:36:59.220 thousand at no point will nato or any of our allies ask us to own things like aircraft carriers

00:37:06.740 they will be very interested in the fact that canada being as large as we are it's very interested in

00:37:12.820 yeah not only fighters but but a really good uh robust capability to transport things back and

00:37:19.940 forth across the nation you know we've heard about these wonderful c-17 aircraft we've got five of them

00:37:24.740 in canada you know over in nato there are all kinds of nations that share one or two of these things

00:37:29.540 we've got five of our own you know we've got 17 uh brand new hercules aircraft c-130s my son's flying

00:37:37.780 one of those out of trenton right now uh we've got uh uh we've got uh you know 15 frigates that are

00:37:45.060 have been upgraded recently or continue to get upgraded and we've got uh tanks artillery and uh very well

00:37:51.860 trained uh army so yeah i i mean i i think uh there's an opportunity for canadians always to

00:37:59.060 suck back and take a look at where our military is and then is it where uh we want it to be and

00:38:05.460 almost every time you do that you uh and most canadians will say we are not where we want to be 0.96

00:38:11.540 is this an opportunity to uh to replan and bolster where we want to get to the answer is yes how does

00:38:18.820 the threat landscape change now moving forward we've got what's going on in ukraine of course

00:38:24.340 as we've established questions about well where does it end has it already ended at these borders

00:38:29.700 does it progress in a different direction xi jinping obviously looking with great curiosity and then

00:38:34.420 other little flare-ups whether they be uh rogue state actors or uh different terror cells uh things

00:38:41.220 going on with india and pakistan how do you feel the threat assessment is is is evolving is changing

00:38:47.060 right now little fires everywhere so until this invasion uh occurred uh last night uh and over

00:38:55.140 coming weeks we're you know we're really coming to the end of a remarkable period of peace um now uh we

00:39:03.220 have to be careful of that i absolutely don't want to uh undervalue the uh you know the conflict in

00:39:11.540 afghanistan and in libya in iraq you know these were very important uh conflicts uh with uh important

00:39:20.260 principles uh defended by canadians westerners uh with our our blood and treasure um and yet uh they

00:39:28.580 were uh they were manageable in a uh in a larger discussion of world peace we never saw superpowers come

00:39:36.980 into uh into uh into conflict against each other they were very careful uh to ensure uh that peace

00:39:43.700 reigned um even though smaller wars were taking place so i you know i i think we need to make sure

00:39:51.220 to make sure that we keep our eye on the ball and the ball in this case is the world you know intelligence

00:39:58.740 right now is focused on the ukraine region you saw really a tremendous job uh by president biden and the

00:40:05.700 americans to share intelligence at a rate that really constricted putin from what he wanted to

00:40:11.940 do you know putin and his advisors will well study the art of war where you know when you're uh weak

00:40:18.740 make yourself look strong when you're strong make yourself look weak that's what he was trying to do

00:40:23.700 and when you're a dictator you're allowed to do that disinformation you know uh who in the press is

00:40:28.820 going to make you pay for disinformation it's very tough thing to do when you're in charge of a

00:40:33.780 democracy because of course people like you hold all of the decision makers to account uh but here

00:40:40.340 was biden here was the west here was all of the western intelligence holding him to account when

00:40:45.860 he said he was moving troops back to russia he was not he was extending the front for what we saw happen

00:40:51.860 last uh last night there was no fooling and and and no shortage of awareness but i can promise you that

00:40:58.900 the rest of five eyes nato intelligence are very carefully watching the movement of uh you know

00:41:07.060 chinese troops right now the movement of north korean missiles uh the movement of the taliban you have to

00:41:15.620 be watching everywhere to make sure you continue to through diplomacy through economic sanctions and

00:41:22.820 through military responses that you continue to tap down those things so we can extend this remarkable

00:41:29.300 period of relative peace that we've seen since the end of the second world war so i i think really

00:41:35.700 although there is a very important and heartbreaking conflict going on right now that threatens this

00:41:42.580 world peace um it does not make uh you know the threat of war elsewhere in the world in in the cashmere uh

00:41:51.620 you know in taiwan uh out of north korea in iran in the middle east uh it does not make uh conflict

00:42:00.020 less likely there so we need to uh well we need to focus uh our uh attentions right now on on the region

00:42:07.860 around ukraine and make sure that uh any invasion stops at the western side of ukraine and and sanctions

00:42:14.980 are in place we also need to continue as westerners uh western democracy and and nato uh and friendly

00:42:22.580 alliances keep a watch everywhere else in the world general tom lawson this has been a fascinating

00:42:28.100 conversation thank you so much for joining us today pleasure to be with you anthony thank you all the best

00:42:34.020 full comment is a post media podcast i'm anthony fury this episode was produced by andre prue with

00:42:39.700 theme music by bryce hall kevin liban is the executive producer you can subscribe to full

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00:42:55.460 thanks for listening

Full Comment - February 28, 2022

Our ‘remarkable period of peace’ could be coming to an end

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