Full Comment - Pierre Poilievre is picking the right fights

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00:00:11.800 for what you need. TD, ready for you. The federal conservatives are holding a convention in Quebec

00:00:23.120 City. It's going to be a coming together for the first time in a couple of years. Well, first time

00:00:27.320 since they elected Pierre Polyev as leader, this is a different sort of convention. It's

00:00:32.120 about policy. It's about planning to take over the world, as they might say on pinky in the

00:00:36.640 brain. But are they in the big leagues or are they playing small ball? Hi, I'm Brian Lilly.

00:00:41.540 This is the Full Comment Podcast. Before we bring in our next guest who knows all about

00:00:45.620 winning campaigns and losing campaigns, as you do when you're in politics for a while,

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00:01:04.540 So how does Pierre Polyev take the issues that will be discussed at the convention? Some which

00:01:09.140 will be landmines, some which will offer opportunities. How does he take all that and

00:01:13.100 then thread the needle of bringing in new voters while keeping the base happy? Keeping the base happy

00:01:19.160 while not alienating people who the last few times to the voting booth have cast a ballot for

00:01:24.540 Justin Trudeau but are now, well, growing tired of it. And how did they do all this without allowing

00:01:30.080 the liberals to paint the conservatives in a negative light? Corey tonight has run campaigns

00:01:34.900 for Doug Ford provincially here in Ontario. He's also been at the high level of communications

00:01:41.760 on federal campaigns and run other roles. Corey, welcome to the studio.

00:01:46.060 Hey, great to be here with you.

00:01:48.020 So let's talk about this. It looks like a good moment for Pierre Polyev and the conservatives.

00:01:53.280 Things are looking good, but the caveat is we don't know when an election is. It could be

00:01:58.600 a couple of months away, given that it's a minority. It could be 2025.

00:02:03.420 He's got big mo, as they say. Big momentum, big momentum right now. Look, I think all the leaders

00:02:08.860 went into the summer to do your regular summer tour to get out there to try to drum up some support

00:02:14.080 for their approach, their political agenda. And clearly, Polyev had the best summer.

00:02:22.580 He's up considerably in the polls, and particularly in some key areas in the GTA,

00:02:29.400 in British Columbia, which has played a fairly pivotal role in the last couple of elections,

00:02:35.880 in terms of putting more liberals in office than we'd seen in a couple of decades preceding that.

00:02:44.680 But he's also up in Quebec and in the Maritime. So, you know, everything's kind of coming up roses

00:02:50.360 this fall for Pierre Polyev. And I think there's some good reasons for it.

00:02:55.680 I'm not used to seeing such big swings in the summertime, though.

00:03:00.700 Yeah.

00:03:01.100 You?

00:03:01.920 Well, I think there are a couple of things that are helping to drive that, though. One is that

00:03:07.700 we saw some interest rate hikes going into the summer. So, you know, a lot of those cost of

00:03:12.780 living and concerns about mortgage payments, those kinds of issues, have been very top of mind for

00:03:18.500 Canadians. So I think that's part of it. And that issue set is really something that Polyev

00:03:25.440 has spoken about at length for decades now. He's being the keep more of your money,

00:03:32.780 allowing people to keep more of their money in their pocket kind of politician.

00:03:37.360 And you've been consistent on that over the years.

00:03:39.800 He's been very consistent on it. And so, you know, he's kind of having a moment. Like,

00:03:44.660 the issue set for, I think, a lot of the middle class is pretty harmonious to what he's been talking

00:03:50.560 about for a long time. So I think that's been helpful. And I think the other thing that's been

00:03:54.820 helpful is they haven't been talking about Chinese electoral interference exclusively,

00:03:59.980 which I think is one of those issues that, you know, it's big in the media, it's big in the

00:04:06.300 parliament and question period. And, you know, when you see the government having a bunch of

00:04:13.980 missteps, there's a temptation to, you know, switch to that issue set to score some points. But I,

00:04:19.540 you know, as fun as that is, I think you're always better served to be on the issues that are

00:04:25.180 affecting a broad swath of the middle class. And when we've seen Polyev focused on the economy,

00:04:31.900 on cost of living issues, we've seen them go up. And I think it draws a great contrast with the

00:04:38.140 liberals who seem to be really struggling. Like, they came in in 2015 on an agenda of trying to grow

00:04:43.680 the middle class to try to be champions for the middle class. And somewhere along the way,

00:04:47.900 those working hard to join it, and those working hard to join it. But they seem to have lost the

00:04:52.520 plot a little bit. And, you know, they tried to do a bit of a reboot with the cabinet shuffle.

00:04:58.060 They had a cabinet retreat where they said they were going to come out and talk about housing.

00:05:03.340 And while they did a bit of talking about it, there wasn't really a clear message coming out of

00:05:07.620 that that seemed to resonate with the public more broadly. So, you know, all of that to say,

00:05:15.260 the liberal reboot over the summer was a bit of a wet firecracker. And Polyev's sort of image work,

00:05:23.220 his personal advertising campaign to sort of introduce him to voters seems to have landed quite

00:05:30.900 well. And the issue set is, I think, perfect for him. So, you know, all of those things together,

00:05:36.700 and you end up where we are right now, which is him really on the doorstep of a majority government

00:05:41.620 here. If the polls hold. If the polls hold, right? It's a long way to Tipperary, and there's a long

00:05:49.000 way yet to go, as the saying goes. But, you know, all things being equal, you're better to be up than

00:05:57.880 down. And, you know, in politics, you know, your enemies and your problems tend to accumulate over

00:06:04.280 time. And which is why you got to go back to Wilfrid Laurier to find a government that's been able

00:06:11.080 to win four times in a row. It's really hard to do. We tried in 2015 unsuccessfully for the

00:06:16.900 Conservative Party with Harper. And, you know, I see a lot of similarities in terms of the position that

00:06:24.760 true is now as to what we were at that time, you know, where there's just some fatigue. You know,

00:06:30.220 the old saying that every day in politics, you put a pebble in your backpack. And after eight years

00:06:35.400 of pebbles, you know, it starts getting pretty heavy. And it's hard. So I think there's a bunch

00:06:44.100 of things going for them sort of historically. And in that sense, that it feels like this is going

00:06:50.700 to be a change election. Is the housing and cost of living issue enough to get him through? Because

00:06:58.960 with both his base and with the people he's opposing, there are a lot of cultural issues

00:07:04.540 that people try and get going. Does he need to avoid those? Does he need to latch on to them?

00:07:12.140 Will saying, I'll get you better housing, I'll get you a lower cost of living, I'll, you know,

00:07:17.340 bring it home, as he keeps saying. Yeah, well, I think that's, that's the main message. But that

00:07:24.060 doesn't have to be the only message. And I think it's always a bit of a balancing act to try to

00:07:30.600 strike a balance between keeping your your volunteers, your supporters, the people who fund

00:07:35.160 your election campaigns, energized and engaged. And, and they like a few of those, you know, red meat 1.00

00:07:42.360 issues a little bit more than general public does. But you know, in modern campaigning communications,

00:07:48.840 your ability to micro target now is greater than it's ever been before. So you know, you can tailor

00:07:54.840 some of those those messages, whether it's things that they're going to be debating at the convention,

00:08:00.720 like around transgender issues, and the interface between, you know, role of parents and role of

00:08:06.720 schools. You know, those kinds of issues will certainly energize part of their base. 0.99

00:08:11.940 And I don't think they should be overly concerned about the voices saying, you know,

00:08:18.660 you can't talk about any of these things, you can talk about anything you want. It's, you know,

00:08:22.340 but where you put the most emphasis, I think it should still be the economic messages. And

00:08:27.300 and I assume that that will be. But when you're meeting with the family, you know, so to speak,

00:08:31.620 your political family at a convention, especially a policy convention, there's an expectation that

00:08:36.660 you're going to talk about some of those things. And if you don't do that, you do risk alienating

00:08:40.420 some of the or decreasing the enthusiasm level of some of those core supporters. So I think it's

00:08:45.700 trying to strike the right balance.

00:08:47.140 Well, on the issue of gender identity and parental rights, we've been told for weeks that this is a

00:08:53.860 very controversial issue. The prime minister declared what Blaine Higgs is doing with now Scott

00:09:00.260 Moe and to a degree, what Doug Ford's education ministry, Steven Lecce said as an expectation in

00:09:06.420 that parents be informed before their child's gender pronouns are changed. We were told endlessly that this

00:09:12.500 was incredibly controversial and then a poll comes out. Controversial to whom though? Certainly not to

00:09:16.820 parents. Like 82% of parents with kids under 18 said they support what Blaine Higgs is doing. 78% of

00:09:23.780 the general public and 69% of people who voted liberal last time. So, I mean, that's a, that's a

00:09:29.540 disconnect where those are, those are super majorities. And as you know, from having covered

00:09:34.260 politics for, for a long time, uh, Brian, you don't see those kinds of numbers around consensus around

00:09:39.700 almost any issue. Like this is like saying the sky is blue. In fact, I'm not sure you could get 80,

00:09:44.260 82% of Canadians to agree that the sky is blue and, and, and maybe rightfully so probably cloudy

00:09:50.500 in some, some of those neighborhoods. But, uh, look, I, I don't see that as, as highly controversial.

00:09:56.740 Um, you know, I've watched with interest Scott Moe's, uh, announcements in this area and, uh, and,

00:10:03.380 you know, when polled, they're extremely popular. So talking about popular things isn't going to be a

00:10:07.220 problem. And, uh, you know, and we're in a, we're in a world, you have kids, I have kids,

00:10:11.860 you need to, you need a parental, uh, sign off on, on darn near everything these days at school.

00:10:18.740 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You know, you can't go visit the, uh, the Royal Ontario museum without a parental

00:10:23.460 permission form, but you know, uh, so the thought that, that the school isn't going to communicate,

00:10:28.660 uh, with parents around some of these issues is, uh, uh, I think strikes a lot of parents as,

00:10:33.620 as preposterous. The, um, the same time as that's coming up, you've got the, um,

00:10:40.660 the Trudeau liberals changing an advisory to the States, trying to warn, uh, people in the LGBTQ 1.00

00:10:48.340 community that going to the United States is dangerous and then claiming, oh no, we, we had

00:10:54.340 nothing to do with this. Corey, there's no way that I can see a, and you've worked in the federal

00:11:01.220 government, but is there any way you can see that advisory being changed without political involvement?

00:11:09.860 I can't. Like I, it's certain, it's, you know, ultimately, uh, the diplomatic and other, uh,

00:11:17.780 consequences of doing that are so, so high that, you know, you, the thought that the ministers

00:11:22.740 wouldn't, uh, wouldn't see that before is, is, uh, difficult to imagine in my mind.

00:11:27.220 This to me tells me that the Trudeau liberals playbook is still to go on social issues from

00:11:32.420 a different perspective than what some of the, the conservative base will be doing this week.

00:11:37.620 Uh, but you know, in my view, it looks like they want to campaign against Republican governors

00:11:43.060 and Donald Trump and try and tie Pierre Polyev to that.

00:11:47.860 Well, there, there's a real danger in doing that because, uh, Donald Trump isn't on the ballot

00:11:52.740 and nor, nor is, uh, Ron DeSantis or, uh, you know, anyone else. Uh, so, you know,

00:11:57.860 you've got to fight the opponent that's on the ballot against you. And, uh, uh, I, I think it's,

00:12:03.940 uh, you know, uh, ill-advised to take that approach. Uh, if that's their, you know,

00:12:09.380 chief electoral strategy that, uh, that they're just going to try to denormalize, uh,

00:12:14.500 polio by, uh, by trying to affiliate them with, uh, with politicians in another jurisdiction,

00:12:19.780 like, uh, that's, that's weak sauce to me. I, I think there's, uh, lots of, lots of reasons that,

00:12:25.620 that they should be able to come up with that are, um, uh, reason for their reelection or a critique

00:12:33.060 of the opposition. Like, you know, you don't have to go there, I think. And, and, and going there,

00:12:38.500 in my experience, hasn't, hasn't worked out well for those who've tried it.

00:12:41.460 Well, I mean, Trudeau has been, uh, become a bit of an expert in dragging American politics

00:12:47.620 into the Canadian scene. I mean, when, uh, the U S Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade,

00:12:51.620 you would have thought it was the Supreme Court in Ottawa. Right. Um, and so he plays on these,

00:12:57.060 uh, there's a mass shooting in the States. He makes a gun announcement in Canada. Right. Right. Well,

00:13:03.220 you know, uh, they have done those things in the past, but like looking at where they're at in the

00:13:08.740 polls, I would say it's not working so well for them. Like, I think the challenge that the liberals

00:13:13.300 have is that they have not responded in a particularly effective fashion to the cost of

00:13:19.940 living crisis. Uh, there's a consensus with almost every premier that the, the carbon tax should be

00:13:25.700 paused at the very least. And in many cases, uh, you have premiers saying it should be rolled back

00:13:30.100 entirely. Um, uh, this is the, you know, the personal side, uh, and, uh, uh, you know, instead

00:13:37.940 what they've opted for is some highly targeted programs that basically are aimed towards the

00:13:43.780 lowest income, 10% of the Canadian population. There's nothing wrong with, with, with doing that 0.99

00:13:49.220 in and of itself. But if that's all you're doing, it's pretty hard to say that you're the champion of

00:13:55.140 middle class. If all the stuff that you're doing is, is, is blowing past them and going to another 0.94

00:14:00.580 group of people, it's, uh, you know, I, so, which is why I say, I think they've kind of lost the plot.

00:14:05.380 Like they, they were elected on a, uh, on a agenda aimed very squarely at, at, at middle, uh, middle

00:14:12.260 class voters. And, uh, and they seem to have forgotten that they, they haven't done really anything

00:14:16.980 in this term of office that you can point to, um, uh, that is making life better or easier for those

00:14:24.020 folks. And at the same time, you know, you, you've seen, uh, actions, whether it's increases in the

00:14:29.380 carbon tax or, uh, whether it's, uh, high interest rates, which are, you know, uh, probably it was

00:14:35.700 correct, uh, a function of government overspending and the pandemic. So, uh, you know, when you add

00:14:43.140 those things together, they've done some stuff that have hurt the middle class and they haven't

00:14:45.940 done anything for them. And, and at the same time, you've got probably about every day, uh, beating a

00:14:51.220 drum saying, you know, we can do better and I'm going to, uh, make sure that you have more money

00:14:55.300 in your pocket at the end of the day. Uh, uh, it's a, it's a strong message.

00:15:02.020 There are, uh, proposals on things like freedom of speech, which somehow has become controversial.

00:15:07.300 Uh, remember when everyone used to agree on that at least, but that's now become far right. Um, but I

00:15:13.140 don't think, I don't think, uh, adopting a policy on freedom of speech is going to win you voters or lose

00:15:18.900 your voters. Uh, but an issue that you had to deal with in running Doug Ford's successful reelection

00:15:24.820 campaign was around issues related to relitigating the pandemic and they've got one on bodily autonomy

00:15:33.140 in vaccines, right? Um, that, that is a, a active and agitated and organized group of people, but it's

00:15:40.660 not very big. Yeah. Look, it's less than 10% of the population who are, are, um, really animated by

00:15:48.260 those issues. And, uh, and they're split between a few parties and, uh, some of them are kind of more

00:15:54.500 on the, the, the hard libertarian edge of the party. And then Max Bernier has obviously been,

00:15:59.700 been trying to build a party around catering to those folks, but half of them are, are, you know,

00:16:05.700 found, uh, a more comfortable home and like the green party. So I, I say it's kind of two sides.

00:16:12.020 There's like the live free or die privatize the sidewalks crowd. And then there's the, uh, the placenta

00:16:17.380 eaters, the, uh, the folks who want to have a hundred, a hundred mile diet and think that

00:16:22.180 pharmaceutical companies are trying to kill them. So like it, you know, it's there, there's two sides,

00:16:28.340 I guess, two, two packs within that, that environment. Uh, only half of them, I think

00:16:34.020 are truly accessible to the conservatives. Those are the PPC folks. And at the end of the day,

00:16:38.980 the number of reasons that those people have to dislike Trudeau go so far beyond, uh, anything

00:16:45.540 related to, uh, to pandemic measures or vaccine mandates, et cetera, like they're unhappy with

00:16:50.420 the Trudeau government on a whole range of issues. And that's only one of them. And that's one that's

00:16:54.900 sort of in the rear view mirror in my view. Um, so I, I, I don't think that I expect it'll be

00:17:01.780 talked about, uh, you know, it's obvious there'll be resolutions on it. We'll see where, where the party

00:17:06.500 goes, but I, I would be really surprised if you saw that as a central plank in, uh, in, uh, election

00:17:14.180 platform by polio. Oh, me, me as well. Um, but I want, I want to get your insight on your decision

00:17:22.100 in the 2022 election in Ontario to say, we're not going to relitigate COVID. I think you,

00:17:29.380 your attitude was basically, and this is watching from the outside. Don't talk about the pandemic.

00:17:34.260 It's over. It's move on. And I remember going to, you know, one of these panels at the Albany club

00:17:40.100 after the election and all the parties had representatives there and the liberal and new

00:17:44.820 Democrat representatives both said they made a mistake talking about the pandemic. They made a

00:17:50.260 mistake bringing up masking. And, uh, they said people recoiled. They just wanted to not talk about

00:17:57.940 it. So when I look at Danielle Smith's election win in Alberta, she was trying to relitigate the

00:18:04.820 pandemic. And then when she stopped and switched to other issues, she won. So what would your advice

00:18:11.380 be to, uh, to Polly have been those people who think that, no, we need to fight on this.

00:18:17.700 Well, it would be, you gotta, you know, you can't major in the minors. Like you've gotta,

00:18:22.580 you gotta be on the big issues that affect everyone. And you want to be focused on the things that

00:18:27.060 are, um, of the greatest relevance to the greatest number of people. And right now that's,

00:18:32.980 that's clearly around cost of living issues. Uh, that's, that's where, you know, a lot of

00:18:37.940 Canadians are feeling pain and, and suffering from, you know, economic anxiety. It's, it's worrying

00:18:43.620 about, oh, my, you know, my mortgage is going to have to be renewed in a year or two years.

00:18:48.180 And I'm not sure whether I can afford it based on today's interest rates. Like those are,

00:18:52.260 those are the issues that I think really are, are going to affect the most people. And you want to be

00:18:56.580 focused on those. Um, you know, that said, uh, I don't believe that there should be topics that

00:19:02.980 you can't talk about. And, uh, you know, so, you know, we'll have a debate about it, but,

00:19:07.780 you know, at the end of the day, you want to be focused on the things that are going to touch

00:19:10.740 the lives of the greatest number of people. Every party has these things around their

00:19:14.500 policy conventions. Uh, I think the last one, the liberals, um, voted for a policy that said, uh,

00:19:20.260 uh, jail journalists who, um, use, uh, unnamed sources or, or prosecute, maybe, maybe they'd

00:19:27.700 all be in jail. We'd all be in jail. Uh, as somebody who's been an unnamed source,

00:19:31.540 I hope they're not going to throw us in prison too. Uh, I, I, I, I perhaps use unnamed sources

00:19:37.380 on a regular basis. Yes. Yeah. Well, I think, I think it's a staple of, uh, journalism everywhere.

00:19:42.180 So, yeah. So they had that. I remember the green party once having a, uh, a policy, uh, debate on,

00:19:48.500 um, endorsing polyamorous relationships, uh, and, you know, and these are things that

00:19:56.340 make people on the outside scratch. They have a lot more fun conventions, I'm guessing,

00:19:59.860 if they're debating that stuff, but, um, but, but in the grand scheme of things,

00:20:04.500 you know, there'll, there'll be some stories about something that somebody deems controversial,

00:20:08.980 but unless it's in the platform, does it matter? I don't think it matters. Uh, I don't think it

00:20:14.180 matters. Uh, I think it's an opportunity to, uh, to, to rally the troops. I think it's an

00:20:19.380 opportunity to get some energy. Um, you know, going into a convention when your numbers are

00:20:24.580 up, like poly-ups are right now is it, it, it's kind of like shooting pucks in an open net though,

00:20:29.700 in terms of, um, uh, maintaining a level of excitement, you know, uh, what motivates

00:20:35.700 political parties more than anything else is winning. They really like to win.

00:20:39.940 It's sort of the purpose of the whole endeavor at the end of the day.

00:20:43.540 I hear it brings about discipline too. Yeah, it does. You know, there's nothing like a little

00:20:47.220 bit of success to, uh, put some steam in everyone's stride. And so I, I expect it's,

00:20:52.180 it's going to be a pretty, uh, pretty raucous gathering. And, um, uh, and I think it's important

00:20:57.700 that they're doing it in Quebec city because you've seen, uh, uh, you've seen the numbers go up for

00:21:02.500 Polyev. Uh, he speaks French fluently. Uh, and, uh, uh, I, I think, you know, there could be an

00:21:11.220 opportunity to do better in Quebec than, than anybody anticipated. I don't think you need Quebec

00:21:17.060 to win a majority government. You know, certainly our friend, Jenny Byrne and, uh, and our, and

00:21:22.740 Prime Minister Harper demonstrated that, uh, in 2011, you can win a majority government in Canada

00:21:28.980 without a significant support in Quebec, but it sure makes it a hell of a lot easier if you do

00:21:33.620 have some. And if you could go from, you know, 10 seats, which is kind of around where the conservative

00:21:38.660 party base is in the province now to something like 20, boy, oh boy, does a majority government

00:21:43.060 get easier to do. Absolutely. I want to talk to you about Quebec and trying to put too much focus

00:21:49.140 on Quebec as the party has done in previous elections, maybe, maybe the last two, uh, but also,

00:21:55.300 uh, want to talk to you about, uh, those elusive swing voters, those suburban moms that I guess 1.00

00:22:01.540 back in the Clinton days, we used to call them soccer moms. I don't know what we're calling them

00:22:05.140 now. We'll talk about that after this break. Did you lock the front door? Check. Close the garage

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00:22:34.660 slash total security to learn more. Conditions apply. Winning a majority government, that is

00:22:40.340 obviously the goal, but how does Pierre Polyev do that? And are you surprised that we're even talking

00:22:45.700 about that? Corey, tonight, um, a couple months ago, people would have said, you know,

00:22:52.740 if Pierre Polyev wins, if the Conservatives win, it'll be a minority, maybe even a weak minority.

00:22:58.020 Yeah. Now on the cusp of a majority, if not outright there, it, you know, would depend on a lot of

00:23:03.780 factors, including regional ones. But let's talk about what you were mentioning just a minute ago about

00:23:10.100 Quebec. Um, it, Stephen Harper won without significant support. He, he went up in Quebec

00:23:17.700 in 2011, but not hugely. He, you know, he's bounced between, in those days, I think it was between 10

00:23:22.500 and 14 seats in his time. And they're at about 10 now. Um, but before every election, along comes

00:23:30.420 somebody whispering sweet nothings to Joël Denis Belavance, our friend at La Presse, great journalist on the

00:23:35.940 hill. Uh, and it's, Ooh, conservatives think they can win 25 seats in Quebec. And there's always a

00:23:42.260 section of the party that wants to push Quebec issues. And, you know, I, I look at, um, the last

00:23:49.380 two elections around the, uh, was it bill 21 in Quebec, the anti-religious symbols. If either Andrew

00:23:56.660 Scheer or Aaron O'Toole had come out against that and campaigned in the 905 and the lower mainland

00:24:02.500 against that, you know, he would have, they would have picked up significant seats, you know, but

00:24:06.500 they, they were, and the people around them were convinced we're going to win big in Quebec.

00:24:11.700 How do you manage that? The, the lure of, you know, Diefenbaker is what 57 seats, right? Uh, against the

00:24:19.220 reality that it's not going to happen. Yeah. Well, and then even in Diefenbaker's

00:24:25.060 basis is really in our kind of one lease program, uh, from, uh, Duplessis. So I, I, I, I think you

00:24:32.580 need to maintain coherence in terms of what you're talking about. Um, the idea that you can run a

00:24:37.300 separate campaign in Quebec as a theory that, uh, has, uh, a long track record of failure in terms

00:24:45.700 of conservative politics and conservative leaders. So I think you want to, you know, you want to maintain

00:24:51.540 that, that focus on the economy, uh, interest rates and cost of living issues are as, as acute in Quebec

00:24:57.700 as they are everywhere else. Uh, I think you see a little bit of, uh, uh, a better housing situation

00:25:05.300 in terms of housing affordability in the province. And so those issues are, are a little less acute

00:25:09.860 there than they are in the GTA and the GVA. Um, but, uh, but there's still issues, right? So I, I think

00:25:18.260 you just want to maintain your focus. I think you want to have a coherent campaign that, uh, is really

00:25:23.220 coast, coast, coast, uh, and, uh, and not, uh, you know, uh, as you say, uh, do things that are going

00:25:30.340 to harm you in other parts of the country, uh, in a, in a vain effort to, to try to, to win votes in Quebec.

00:25:37.220 Quebecers have a long history of, of, um, being a bit, uh, contradictory in terms of some of the,

00:25:45.940 the, the, the governments and, and ideologies that, that they support. You know, so you had,

00:25:50.980 uh, the PQ, uh, winning big majorities provincially at the same time that Pierre Trudeau was winning big

00:25:57.300 federal liberal, uh, majorities and with the same electorate. So, you know, uh, I don't think you have

00:26:02.900 to, um, uh, parrot Legault in order to, uh, be politically successful there. Uh, you know,

00:26:11.860 parody in Legault could hurt you in other parts of the country. Well, particularly, uh, with some

00:26:18.020 new Canadians, there's, you know, there's a vein of xenophobia in Quebec politics and Legault

00:26:23.540 has certainly tapped into that in a, in a significant way. Um, but the consensus around

00:26:29.300 immigration in the rest of the country is very different than, than what it is in Quebec. And,

00:26:33.300 and I would say, um, you know, if you were to take a Legault approach at a national level here, I, I would

00:26:41.620 have a lot of difficulty seeing, uh, you'd be able to, to, to, to win seats that you need to in the,

00:26:47.780 in the GTA and the GDA. It's, that approach is just a non-starter, um, uh, because you have, you

00:26:54.420 have huge, uh, new Canadian populations in those cities and, uh, you know, they don't, uh, they

00:27:00.420 obviously don't, uh, like that message track.

00:27:04.420 Immigration though, um, 1.00

00:27:06.020 um, do we still have a consensus or is there a potential for the consensus to fray a bit? Um,

00:27:13.540 especially around the housing crisis, the liberals went very quickly in the space of about two weeks

00:27:20.020 from saying, you know, any connection that you want to make between the housing crisis 0.91

00:27:24.900 and immigration is racist to, holy crap, who let 900,000 foreign students in? Right. Um, 0.94

00:27:31.620 well, they did is the answer. Um, so it's, and, um, uh, you know, was speaking with, uh, you know,

00:27:40.100 our mutual friend, Warren Kinsella earlier, and he was on jazz Joe, uh, Joe Hall's show in Vancouver.

00:27:46.420 And jazz was asking him, isn't it time that we paused immigration and shut things down due to the 0.98

00:27:51.460 housing crisis? So it, well, it's to be a, a bigger concern. Here's the challenge. Uh, the biggest

00:27:58.500 throttle on our economy and our economic growth right now, including building housing is a lack

00:28:03.780 of workers, you know, in the province of Ontario right now, we still have about 400,000 job vacancies

00:28:08.740 with, with no one, no applicants. And about a third of those, so both, uh, sorry, a little less

00:28:15.940 than that, but a hundred thousand of them would be in their healthcare space. So these are, uh,

00:28:19.460 personal support workers, PSWs, as they say, uh, nurses, uh, uh, people in that healthcare space,

00:28:26.020 uh, lab techs, et cetera. Uh, but 300,000 of them are in skilled trades. These are, uh, folks who are

00:28:33.540 going to be swinging hammers and pouring concrete. Uh, like these are the folks that are actually

00:28:38.900 required to build housing. And when you look at housing affordability and housing construction costs,

00:28:44.180 labor costs have gone vertical because we're so short workers. So, you know, I, I don't think that

00:28:50.580 you can get to where we need to go economically and including on, on, on housing construction,

00:28:56.580 uh, without significant immigration, the challenge is to try to keep pace and, or do we need to 0.94

00:29:05.940 change the focus of what the immigration is? I mean, 900,000, uh, foreign students in a year

00:29:13.460 is primarily putting a strain on rentals. Rentals. Yeah. Rentals in specific markets and Mike Moffitt,

00:29:21.620 who's 11,000 of those, uh, are in Ontario and, uh, overwhelmingly in the GTA. So and some out in

00:29:30.100 London and Mike Moffitt, the, um, economist researcher very much on the liberal side of things,

00:29:36.260 but he's done a, he's done chart showing that the areas with the largest numbers have the rental crunch.

00:29:42.580 So, uh, how do you balance that to try and use the rental crunch, but not leave these schools

00:29:50.660 without what's become an important source of income for them? Well, there are other,

00:29:53.780 other things that you can do in terms of funding in universities. That's not the only way. Although

00:29:58.660 you gotta say that, you know, the, the bringing students into Canada is something that has worked

00:30:04.100 out really well for us in terms of foreign students. It's one of the ways that we, uh, that, that we fill

00:30:09.940 that, that vacancy in our economy in terms of the lack of workers, you know, we have very generous

00:30:15.300 entitlement programs and, and pension plans, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, when you go from,

00:30:20.660 you know, 15 people working for every one retired person to six people working for every one retired

00:30:25.940 person, uh, that's a lot of, a lot of those things become very difficult to maintain. So,

00:30:30.660 you know, we, and, and you can look at other countries in the world that are having huge

00:30:34.660 demographic problems right now, like China being one, um, uh, you don't want to be in that position.

00:30:40.500 You know, you had stagnation in the Japanese economy for, for two decades as a result of a

00:30:46.260 similar effect. So, you know, I don't think immigration's the issue. I think it's, it's essential

00:30:51.460 that we do it, but there is, you know, it's incumbent on the federal government to, to participate

00:30:57.300 in solving some of these problems. And I think that this is another space where, uh, they've

00:31:02.980 really ceded the field to, to Polyab. Uh, you know, they, they're coming to realize now that

00:31:08.260 housing's an issue. Well, housing's been an issue for a long time. They just haven't been talking

00:31:12.020 about it and they haven't been doing anything on it. So, um, you know, if you're going to let in

00:31:16.180 900,000 students, that's not the end of the world. Uh, but did you do anything to provide

00:31:22.740 housing support? You know, uh, there's nothing saying that the federal government couldn't build,

00:31:28.020 uh, uh, residences or, uh, for foreign students and provide the funding to universities to do that.

00:31:34.740 So, you know, you've got the guys who are controlling the immigration lever, uh, in some

00:31:39.220 of these areas that have advocated their responsibility to, to, to have a plan on the

00:31:43.700 housing side. So, you know, it's the immigration, the former immigration minister is now the housing

00:31:48.420 minister and saying how this happened. Yeah, exactly. Right. Uh, so it, you know, it, it,

00:31:54.500 at a certain point, it looks like incompetence, right. And, and that's another narrative that

00:32:00.260 if we're talking about the pebbles in the backpack analogy, those, those confidence issues are, are the

00:32:05.300 things that I think are, have been flagging the government in a number of areas. Uh, and, uh,

00:32:10.980 and they're cumulative. So, and this is just another one where it looks like they were, you know,

00:32:14.980 the sleep of the switch. So your advice don't change on immigration. We still need it. So, 0.55

00:32:23.300 I mean, we've kind of been hearing that from, from Polyev. It's also immigration is central to

00:32:28.900 the story. One of the things the liberals always try and do is portray conservatives as anti-immigration,

00:32:35.380 uh, which is, you know, they laughable now. Stephen Harper's entire, uh, uh, tenure in office,

00:32:44.820 he was bringing in record numbers of people. Right. And then the liberals came in and said,

00:32:48.980 hold my beer and, and jacked it up even more. So it's, but Pierre's personal story. Right. Is

00:32:56.020 one of immigration, uh, through his wife, Anna, uh, those personal stories, you know, some liberals are

00:33:02.900 being very critical that she's out there all the time. It's like, they're suddenly upset that

00:33:07.860 politicians have spouses because the PM just recently announced a separation. Yeah. Um,

00:33:15.780 it's, it's an odd thing. I, and I'm not going to pick on Justin Crudeau. Yeah. Well,

00:33:20.020 separation or his personal life. That's, that's not the point, but, um, do those personal stories of,

00:33:27.540 work for Pierre in terms of his wife, his two school teachers being adopted, all of that?

00:33:33.860 Yeah. I, I think, um, I think they do help. I think, I think his wife is a, is, is a great asset.

00:33:39.940 And, uh, I look to, uh, uh, the night of his leadership victory, um, her speech was incredibly

00:33:46.340 compelling. And, uh, I think her participation in the tour this summer is, has, has been very positive

00:33:53.140 in terms of, uh, um, softening of image, uh, with, uh, with female voters in particular. Um,

00:34:01.380 but I also think the advertising campaign, uh, involving her and voiced by her, uh, is, uh, you

00:34:08.020 know, has, has landed well, you know, and you're, you're seeing the upshot of that. I think if we,

00:34:14.020 if we were to fast forward to after the next election, I think, uh, and do some analysis on where

00:34:19.460 things went wrong with the liberal party, irrespective of what the, the, the, uh, outcome

00:34:23.620 of that election is, I think there'll be a lot of criticism of their decision not to do, uh, attack

00:34:30.100 ads very early on in, uh, uh, Polioff's, uh, uh, after Polioff's ascension to the leadership.

00:34:37.620 He, he won September 10th, right? Right. Yeah.

00:34:40.100 I, I, I would have had them running on September 11th. Right. You know, and, and if you look at,

00:34:45.060 uh, successful campaigns of the Harper era, that was a critical component. The, uh, defining of

00:34:52.740 Stefan Dion, the defining of Michael Ignatius, uh, and there was an attempt to do it with, with Trudeau as

00:34:59.220 well. A lot more difficult in the case of Trudeau because he, uh, was a household name. You know,

00:35:04.980 he was as well-known as the prime minister was. Um, same was not true for Stefan Dion and, uh,

00:35:11.940 Michael Ignatius. So he was a lot harder to do that on, but they would have had that opportunity

00:35:16.260 with Polioff and they chose not to do it. I assume that part of that is, is their fundraising issues.

00:35:21.700 They, uh, clearly being out-fundraised by the Conservatives by a huge margin.

00:35:27.140 And there's some time now. Yeah. For some time now. So I imagine there's some resource

00:35:30.900 issues, uh, uh, there that are probably part of the answer on that, but that doesn't explain the

00:35:36.100 complete lack of an attempt to do so. And I think, um, the annals of history will record that that was

00:35:41.540 a major campaign error. I swear that, and this is not being mean to, uh, to Pierre, but I could have

00:35:51.380 written those attack ads. Yeah, sure. It's, you know, he, he's someone who's been in politics a long

00:35:56.500 time. He has a record. And if you're in the politics of the public eye, you're going to say things or do

00:36:00.740 things that will annoy some people. And these ad campaigns are often just an, an attempt to remind

00:36:08.260 people and, and, and still gobsmacked. They, they didn't do that. Um, so let's talk about the,

00:36:15.300 the image rebranding that the glasses and, um, someone at work was saying to me out when, um,

00:36:21.860 he started wearing the t-shirts that, wow, Pierre is jacked. Yeah. And I said, very good guy.

00:36:27.540 Well, he has been for a long time. And I told them, like, you know, he and I lived near each

00:36:32.740 other when I was in Ottawa, we were both in the South end and I'd run into him at a local gym.

00:36:37.860 And I said, obviously he kept going and I stopped. He's, he's been in shape for a long time. Uh, so

00:36:47.460 does that like, how, how does that play into it? Is, is that a big issue when you're running the

00:36:53.060 campaign like, like you've done? Yeah. Well, look, it, it, it can be a barrier if, uh,

00:37:01.300 you know, those image things can be a barrier, uh, between you and voters sometimes like if,

00:37:05.780 you know, uh, you know, if you're, you're wearing three piece suits all the time, uh, it's hard to

00:37:12.260 look like you're, uh, a common guy. Right. So there's, yeah, exactly. He's well, you know,

00:37:18.180 we trade Rolexes on, uh, on the plane, uh, once in a while, kind of like swatches. Uh, uh, yeah,

00:37:24.020 like, but, but look, like, I, I think, I think to use that example, I think, uh, uh, Jagmeet's, um,

00:37:31.220 uh, image and his choices around how he dresses and presents himself do create a barrier between him

00:37:37.140 and some of, uh, the NDP voters, uh, they don't really see themselves in, uh, in that context. So,

00:37:44.660 um, you know, I, I think it's important, but I think it can be overstated. I don't think his image

00:37:49.780 was particularly poor before, and I don't think this, you know, makeover, so to speak is, is,

00:37:54.660 is really what's driving it. Um, I think the advertising campaign where you're humanizing him

00:38:00.500 and where he's talking about his family and talking about his kids and, and, uh, being relatable in that

00:38:05.620 way, I think that, that's where the image stuff is, has, uh, is really important and, and where

00:38:11.220 they've had some big success, but in glasses, no glasses, I, I think today, I don't think that's

00:38:16.260 really what the issue is. The politics is often emotional as opposed to rational. Right. And so

00:38:23.860 where do you find that balance? He's got to, he's got to find those suburban mothers in 0.57

00:38:30.100 Markham, in Langley, uh, in the GTA and the GVA who have the, the last two elections,

00:38:39.620 whether they held their nose or didn't voted for Trudeau as others were leaving them.

00:38:43.940 We know that suburban women have been the ones that put Trudeau over the edge. And we saw the last 1.00

00:38:49.940 campaign. He, he campaigned in British Columbia and Ontario against Alberta's COVID policies.

00:38:56.740 Right. Right. Uh, so how does Pierre reach those, those voters? And in, in this context,

00:39:05.620 because every time I say you've got to bring over swing voters, there's, you know, somebody in the

00:39:09.940 conservative milieu will say, well, I don't want to be a liberal. Why do we appeal to them? Because

00:39:15.380 you need voters from all over. So, but how do you do it without alienating?

00:39:19.220 Yeah. Well, I think it's, it's sticking on, on those, those big macro, um, economic messages that,

00:39:27.620 that he's had such success with. And, uh, um, uh, I think carbon tax continues to be a huge winner for

00:39:35.300 them. Uh, you know, you long gone are the days where I think the liberals can get away with saying,

00:39:41.540 if you don't support a carbon tax, you don't care about climate change. Uh, you know, all,

00:39:45.780 all the public opinion research I've seen does not support that narrative. Uh, and in part,

00:39:51.140 because they look to the south of the border and, and they see Biden, you know, getting rounds of

00:39:57.700 applause on his, uh, approach on climate change. And, and, you know, it doesn't include a carbon tax.

00:40:03.140 So it's, uh, uh, I think they, they, and their emissions have gone down.

00:40:08.420 And they're gone down way more. So, uh, you know, I, I think there's a lot there that appeals to those

00:40:16.820 soccer moms you're talking about and staying on those messages is, is great. Uh, you know, you, 1.00

00:40:24.100 you don't want to have in the window all of the, uh, the sort of minor issues that we're talking about

00:40:29.620 that, uh, that'll be part of the convention. Uh, you know, but you don't want to have those as

00:40:34.980 your main themes of the campaign and, and all evidence would point to, uh, the conservatives,

00:40:40.100 uh, are, are going to focus on the big stuff.

00:40:46.340 Does Pierre Polyev, um, increasing in support hurt your guy?

00:40:53.220 Does it hurt Doug Ford? Do you believe in this alternation theory of politics in Ontario?

00:40:57.620 I think it's superstition more than it is reality. Um, uh, you tend like, I'll give you a much better

00:41:05.940 explanation for why, uh, you've seen that. And it's not that people want to have a liberal

00:41:10.900 government federally and a conservative provincially, and then flip around. It's what we're talking about

00:41:15.700 around the longevity of governments. Like it's, it's very, it's very hard to, uh, stay in government

00:41:22.500 past two terms or like two full terms federally. Uh, we've had three minority governments and more of 0.74

00:41:28.260 those. Uh, um, but yeah, you know, once you're, you're up, you know, pushing a decade in power,

00:41:34.420 it's pretty hard to stay. Uh, if you look at, um, just the past hundred years of elections federally,

00:41:43.940 provincially, you tend to get one more term. Uh, you, you know, you see a lot more examples of, of,

00:41:49.940 of three, uh, governments in a row. So if you think of, you know, the McGuinty two terms,

00:41:55.780 and then one with wind, uh, uh, you know, you, you can see a change after two as well, but you know,

00:42:02.500 there are many, many, many examples of three terms and in some smaller provinces, uh, you know, those,

00:42:07.780 those can be five or six terms. Like you're looking at provinces like Saskatchewan or, uh, or Alberta.

00:42:14.020 So, uh, I don't think it makes a big difference. I think it's more about the accumulation

00:42:19.700 of pebbles in your backpack that, that drives that. Uh, and so I think for Ford, it's, uh,

00:42:25.540 you know, he got reelected on, on a, um, on a theme of getting it done, building, you know,

00:42:33.460 it's really a, you know, an act of building, uh, agenda and, uh, coming into the next election,

00:42:40.580 people will look and say, Hey, did you actually get it done or did you not? And, uh, you know,

00:42:45.460 and I think that's really what's it's going to hinge on for, for, for, uh, for the Ford government,

00:42:51.140 uh, less about who's in Ottawa. It, in the 2022 campaign, there was a lot of criticism.

00:42:58.740 I didn't understand the criticism, but a lot of people criticized your get it done, um, slogan

00:43:04.580 saying, well, it's, it doesn't mean anything. And I thought, well, it's actually for politics.

00:43:09.940 And I think I wrote a column about this in the sun. It's actually really good because you applied it

00:43:14.420 to everything. You went around and you say, well, we're going to do a hospital. Well, the largest

00:43:20.260 conservative majority in 80 years in the province of Ontario. So, uh, you know, with all due respect,

00:43:25.060 those who are criticizing it, but Pierre looks like he's copying it with, um, his brain at home,

00:43:31.300 bring it home. Does that work? I think it does. Uh, I, I like bring it home because it, it,

00:43:36.340 it has a connotation around, uh, a reclaiming of, of, uh, uh, of something I think that we've lost.

00:43:44.820 And, and that's part of this middle-class dream, you know, and this is what the housing piece really

00:43:49.380 touches on that, uh, if you work hard and play by the rules as, uh, as the, uh, Stephen Harper slogan

00:43:57.780 was, or a narrative was, uh, there are certain things that you, you expect. There was a kind of a

00:44:03.380 consensus that, you know, you would be able to get a house or a mortgage and, uh, uh, and provide

00:44:10.820 that sort of security for your family. Uh, and you see men and women who have done everything right

00:44:17.300 in terms of building a career and are quite successful. And, and, you know, from an income

00:44:22.420 perspective who home ownership is not a prospect in today's prices, you know, uh, it's very difficult to

00:44:31.140 find housing, uh, in parts of this country, uh, where you're not having to put down a million

00:44:36.660 dollars or more for, for what used to be a house that you could buy for, for a fraction of that.

00:44:42.500 So it, it's really pushed that dream of home ownership and that consensus, uh, out of the reach

00:44:47.060 of, of a broad swath of people, particularly millennials and new Canadians. And, uh, uh, and so saying

00:44:55.380 it, you're going to bring it home that you're going to, you know, you're going to, you know, try to

00:44:58.980 reclaim that, um, uh, that opportunity for the broad swath of, of folks, uh, who are, are, are, uh,

00:45:08.020 middle-class is, is very positive. I think it's a very optimistic message.

00:45:14.260 The, while you and I are talking about all of this, you know, that, uh, by the time the convention's

00:45:19.060 over and between now and the next election, there will be a lot of folks in the media taking shots at

00:45:24.740 Pierre. Yep. Um, you work closely with a lot of people in the media. You get along with people

00:45:31.300 whose, um, outlets may have a very different political view than you, but you've also battled

00:45:37.780 with the media before. You may have started a TV network that I worked at as well, but that's another

00:45:42.580 story. Uh, how to, what would your advice be for Pierre and his team dealing with, uh, a media that

00:45:51.700 I'm not sure we can say they're always giving Trudeau a pass now, but they did for a long time

00:45:58.260 and they'll never give him a pass. So how does he deal with them? Professionally? Uh, I, I think

00:46:05.620 you're always better to, uh, engage than disengage, uh, when it comes to, to comms and media relations.

00:46:13.780 Uh, that doesn't mean that every interview is going to be friendly, that there isn't, uh, there isn't, uh,

00:46:19.140 there's some, uh, you know, evidence of bias, et cetera, in reporting, but the public is pretty

00:46:25.540 sophisticated as you know, um, Ryan about this. They can tell when somebody is stacking the deck,

00:46:32.180 when somebody is working a story, when somebody is overly hostile in an interview. And if you're

00:46:37.700 able to maintain your cool and you're able to, um, uh, continue to, to, to communicate, um,

00:46:45.460 you get a lot of credit from, from people who are actually at home listening and watching.

00:46:49.380 Uh, you're never going to win everybody over, but, uh, you know, it's an opportunity to,

00:46:55.060 to, to, to get your message out and, and you should take all those opportunities if you're

00:46:59.220 running for office. So I, I, I don't think, you know, winning in the media is having friendly

00:47:04.900 interviews and having editorial spin. That's, you know, all in your favor. I think winning in the media

00:47:10.180 is getting your message in front of people. And, uh, people will, uh, uh, will discard the,

00:47:16.340 the bias and the, uh, and the spin, uh, more often than not anyway. Some people will like it and agree

00:47:21.940 with it. Some people will discard it. Uh, but you know, the, the objective is to get your voice heard.

00:47:26.980 Uh, everyone that reads my columns and listens to this podcast agrees with everything I say.

00:47:32.420 I know, I never, I do, but that's just cause we're friends and you're very clear thinking.

00:47:37.220 So I, uh, I, I never get emails from people. Oh yeah. No, nor do I.

00:47:42.260 Corey tonight. Thanks so much. Yeah. Real pleasure.

00:47:45.140 Full comment is a post-media podcast. My name's Brian Lilly, your host. This episode was produced

00:47:49.860 by Andre Prutt with theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin is the executive producer. You can

00:47:55.220 subscribe to full comment on Apple podcast, Google, Spotify, and Amazon music. Listen through the app,

00:48:01.060 find us, give us a review, leave a rating and tell your friends and your Aunt May and Whitby all about

00:48:06.580 us. Thanks for listening until next time. I'm Brian Lilly.

Full Comment - September 04, 2023

Pierre Poilievre is picking the right fights

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