Pierre Poilievre is picking the right fights
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Summary
The Conservative Party of Canada is holding a convention in Quebec City this weekend, and it s a chance for the party to come together for the first time in a couple of years. It s a big moment for the new leader of the party, Pierre Polyven, but is it also a moment to ask the question: Are they in the big league, or are they playing small ball?
Transcript
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for what you need. TD, ready for you. The federal conservatives are holding a convention in Quebec
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City. It's going to be a coming together for the first time in a couple of years. Well, first time
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since they elected Pierre Polyev as leader, this is a different sort of convention. It's
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about policy. It's about planning to take over the world, as they might say on pinky in the
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brain. But are they in the big leagues or are they playing small ball? Hi, I'm Brian Lilly.
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This is the Full Comment Podcast. Before we bring in our next guest who knows all about
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winning campaigns and losing campaigns, as you do when you're in politics for a while,
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So how does Pierre Polyev take the issues that will be discussed at the convention? Some which
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will be landmines, some which will offer opportunities. How does he take all that and
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then thread the needle of bringing in new voters while keeping the base happy? Keeping the base happy
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while not alienating people who the last few times to the voting booth have cast a ballot for
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Justin Trudeau but are now, well, growing tired of it. And how did they do all this without allowing
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the liberals to paint the conservatives in a negative light? Corey tonight has run campaigns
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for Doug Ford provincially here in Ontario. He's also been at the high level of communications
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on federal campaigns and run other roles. Corey, welcome to the studio.
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So let's talk about this. It looks like a good moment for Pierre Polyev and the conservatives.
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Things are looking good, but the caveat is we don't know when an election is. It could be
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a couple of months away, given that it's a minority. It could be 2025.
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He's got big mo, as they say. Big momentum, big momentum right now. Look, I think all the leaders
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went into the summer to do your regular summer tour to get out there to try to drum up some support
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for their approach, their political agenda. And clearly, Polyev had the best summer.
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He's up considerably in the polls, and particularly in some key areas in the GTA,
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in British Columbia, which has played a fairly pivotal role in the last couple of elections,
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in terms of putting more liberals in office than we'd seen in a couple of decades preceding that.
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But he's also up in Quebec and in the Maritime. So, you know, everything's kind of coming up roses
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this fall for Pierre Polyev. And I think there's some good reasons for it.
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I'm not used to seeing such big swings in the summertime, though.
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Well, I think there are a couple of things that are helping to drive that, though. One is that
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we saw some interest rate hikes going into the summer. So, you know, a lot of those cost of
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living and concerns about mortgage payments, those kinds of issues, have been very top of mind for
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Canadians. So I think that's part of it. And that issue set is really something that Polyev
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has spoken about at length for decades now. He's being the keep more of your money,
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allowing people to keep more of their money in their pocket kind of politician.
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And you've been consistent on that over the years.
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He's been very consistent on it. And so, you know, he's kind of having a moment. Like,
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the issue set for, I think, a lot of the middle class is pretty harmonious to what he's been talking
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about for a long time. So I think that's been helpful. And I think the other thing that's been
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helpful is they haven't been talking about Chinese electoral interference exclusively,
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which I think is one of those issues that, you know, it's big in the media, it's big in the
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parliament and question period. And, you know, when you see the government having a bunch of
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missteps, there's a temptation to, you know, switch to that issue set to score some points. But I,
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you know, as fun as that is, I think you're always better served to be on the issues that are
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affecting a broad swath of the middle class. And when we've seen Polyev focused on the economy,
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on cost of living issues, we've seen them go up. And I think it draws a great contrast with the
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liberals who seem to be really struggling. Like, they came in in 2015 on an agenda of trying to grow
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the middle class to try to be champions for the middle class. And somewhere along the way,
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those working hard to join it, and those working hard to join it. But they seem to have lost the
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plot a little bit. And, you know, they tried to do a bit of a reboot with the cabinet shuffle.
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They had a cabinet retreat where they said they were going to come out and talk about housing.
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And while they did a bit of talking about it, there wasn't really a clear message coming out of
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that that seemed to resonate with the public more broadly. So, you know, all of that to say,
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the liberal reboot over the summer was a bit of a wet firecracker. And Polyev's sort of image work,
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his personal advertising campaign to sort of introduce him to voters seems to have landed quite
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well. And the issue set is, I think, perfect for him. So, you know, all of those things together,
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and you end up where we are right now, which is him really on the doorstep of a majority government
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here. If the polls hold. If the polls hold, right? It's a long way to Tipperary, and there's a long
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way yet to go, as the saying goes. But, you know, all things being equal, you're better to be up than
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down. And, you know, in politics, you know, your enemies and your problems tend to accumulate over
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time. And which is why you got to go back to Wilfrid Laurier to find a government that's been able
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to win four times in a row. It's really hard to do. We tried in 2015 unsuccessfully for the
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Conservative Party with Harper. And, you know, I see a lot of similarities in terms of the position that
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true is now as to what we were at that time, you know, where there's just some fatigue. You know,
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the old saying that every day in politics, you put a pebble in your backpack. And after eight years
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of pebbles, you know, it starts getting pretty heavy. And it's hard. So I think there's a bunch
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of things going for them sort of historically. And in that sense, that it feels like this is going
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to be a change election. Is the housing and cost of living issue enough to get him through? Because
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with both his base and with the people he's opposing, there are a lot of cultural issues
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that people try and get going. Does he need to avoid those? Does he need to latch on to them?
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Will saying, I'll get you better housing, I'll get you a lower cost of living, I'll, you know,
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bring it home, as he keeps saying. Yeah, well, I think that's, that's the main message. But that
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doesn't have to be the only message. And I think it's always a bit of a balancing act to try to
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strike a balance between keeping your your volunteers, your supporters, the people who fund
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your election campaigns, energized and engaged. And, and they like a few of those, you know, red meat
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issues a little bit more than general public does. But you know, in modern campaigning communications,
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your ability to micro target now is greater than it's ever been before. So you know, you can tailor
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some of those those messages, whether it's things that they're going to be debating at the convention,
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like around transgender issues, and the interface between, you know, role of parents and role of
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schools. You know, those kinds of issues will certainly energize part of their base.
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And I don't think they should be overly concerned about the voices saying, you know,
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you can't talk about any of these things, you can talk about anything you want. It's, you know,
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but where you put the most emphasis, I think it should still be the economic messages. And
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and I assume that that will be. But when you're meeting with the family, you know, so to speak,
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your political family at a convention, especially a policy convention, there's an expectation that
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you're going to talk about some of those things. And if you don't do that, you do risk alienating
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some of the or decreasing the enthusiasm level of some of those core supporters. So I think it's
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Well, on the issue of gender identity and parental rights, we've been told for weeks that this is a
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very controversial issue. The prime minister declared what Blaine Higgs is doing with now Scott
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Moe and to a degree, what Doug Ford's education ministry, Steven Lecce said as an expectation in
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that parents be informed before their child's gender pronouns are changed. We were told endlessly that this
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was incredibly controversial and then a poll comes out. Controversial to whom though? Certainly not to
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parents. Like 82% of parents with kids under 18 said they support what Blaine Higgs is doing. 78% of
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the general public and 69% of people who voted liberal last time. So, I mean, that's a, that's a
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disconnect where those are, those are super majorities. And as you know, from having covered
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politics for, for a long time, uh, Brian, you don't see those kinds of numbers around consensus around
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almost any issue. Like this is like saying the sky is blue. In fact, I'm not sure you could get 80,
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82% of Canadians to agree that the sky is blue and, and, and maybe rightfully so probably cloudy
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in some, some of those neighborhoods. But, uh, look, I, I don't see that as, as highly controversial.
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Um, you know, I've watched with interest Scott Moe's, uh, announcements in this area and, uh, and,
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you know, when polled, they're extremely popular. So talking about popular things isn't going to be a
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problem. And, uh, you know, and we're in a, we're in a world, you have kids, I have kids,
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you need to, you need a parental, uh, sign off on, on darn near everything these days at school.
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Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You know, you can't go visit the, uh, the Royal Ontario museum without a parental
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permission form, but you know, uh, so the thought that, that the school isn't going to communicate,
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uh, with parents around some of these issues is, uh, uh, I think strikes a lot of parents as,
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as preposterous. The, um, the same time as that's coming up, you've got the, um,
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the Trudeau liberals changing an advisory to the States, trying to warn, uh, people in the LGBTQ
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community that going to the United States is dangerous and then claiming, oh no, we, we had
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nothing to do with this. Corey, there's no way that I can see a, and you've worked in the federal
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government, but is there any way you can see that advisory being changed without political involvement?
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I can't. Like I, it's certain, it's, you know, ultimately, uh, the diplomatic and other, uh,
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consequences of doing that are so, so high that, you know, you, the thought that the ministers
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wouldn't, uh, wouldn't see that before is, is, uh, difficult to imagine in my mind.
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This to me tells me that the Trudeau liberals playbook is still to go on social issues from
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a different perspective than what some of the, the conservative base will be doing this week.
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Uh, but you know, in my view, it looks like they want to campaign against Republican governors
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and Donald Trump and try and tie Pierre Polyev to that.
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Well, there, there's a real danger in doing that because, uh, Donald Trump isn't on the ballot
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and nor, nor is, uh, Ron DeSantis or, uh, you know, anyone else. Uh, so, you know,
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you've got to fight the opponent that's on the ballot against you. And, uh, uh, I, I think it's,
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uh, you know, uh, ill-advised to take that approach. Uh, if that's their, you know,
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chief electoral strategy that, uh, that they're just going to try to denormalize, uh,
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polio by, uh, by trying to affiliate them with, uh, with politicians in another jurisdiction,
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like, uh, that's, that's weak sauce to me. I, I think there's, uh, lots of, lots of reasons that,
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that they should be able to come up with that are, um, uh, reason for their reelection or a critique
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of the opposition. Like, you know, you don't have to go there, I think. And, and, and going there,
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in my experience, hasn't, hasn't worked out well for those who've tried it.
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Well, I mean, Trudeau has been, uh, become a bit of an expert in dragging American politics
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into the Canadian scene. I mean, when, uh, the U S Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade,
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you would have thought it was the Supreme Court in Ottawa. Right. Um, and so he plays on these,
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uh, there's a mass shooting in the States. He makes a gun announcement in Canada. Right. Right. Well,
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you know, uh, they have done those things in the past, but like looking at where they're at in the
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polls, I would say it's not working so well for them. Like, I think the challenge that the liberals
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have is that they have not responded in a particularly effective fashion to the cost of
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living crisis. Uh, there's a consensus with almost every premier that the, the carbon tax should be
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paused at the very least. And in many cases, uh, you have premiers saying it should be rolled back
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entirely. Um, uh, this is the, you know, the personal side, uh, and, uh, uh, you know, instead
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what they've opted for is some highly targeted programs that basically are aimed towards the
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lowest income, 10% of the Canadian population. There's nothing wrong with, with, with doing that
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in and of itself. But if that's all you're doing, it's pretty hard to say that you're the champion of
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middle class. If all the stuff that you're doing is, is, is blowing past them and going to another
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group of people, it's, uh, you know, I, so, which is why I say, I think they've kind of lost the plot.
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Like they, they were elected on a, uh, on a agenda aimed very squarely at, at, at middle, uh, middle
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class voters. And, uh, and they seem to have forgotten that they, they haven't done really anything
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in this term of office that you can point to, um, uh, that is making life better or easier for those
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folks. And at the same time, you know, you, you've seen, uh, actions, whether it's increases in the
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carbon tax or, uh, whether it's, uh, high interest rates, which are, you know, uh, probably it was
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correct, uh, a function of government overspending and the pandemic. So, uh, you know, when you add
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those things together, they've done some stuff that have hurt the middle class and they haven't
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done anything for them. And, and at the same time, you've got probably about every day, uh, beating a
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drum saying, you know, we can do better and I'm going to, uh, make sure that you have more money
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in your pocket at the end of the day. Uh, uh, it's a, it's a strong message.
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There are, uh, proposals on things like freedom of speech, which somehow has become controversial.
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Uh, remember when everyone used to agree on that at least, but that's now become far right. Um, but I
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don't think, I don't think, uh, adopting a policy on freedom of speech is going to win you voters or lose
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your voters. Uh, but an issue that you had to deal with in running Doug Ford's successful reelection
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campaign was around issues related to relitigating the pandemic and they've got one on bodily autonomy
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in vaccines, right? Um, that, that is a, a active and agitated and organized group of people, but it's
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not very big. Yeah. Look, it's less than 10% of the population who are, are, um, really animated by
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those issues. And, uh, and they're split between a few parties and, uh, some of them are kind of more
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on the, the, the hard libertarian edge of the party. And then Max Bernier has obviously been,
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been trying to build a party around catering to those folks, but half of them are, are, you know,
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found, uh, a more comfortable home and like the green party. So I, I say it's kind of two sides.
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There's like the live free or die privatize the sidewalks crowd. And then there's the, uh, the placenta
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eaters, the, uh, the folks who want to have a hundred, a hundred mile diet and think that
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pharmaceutical companies are trying to kill them. So like it, you know, it's there, there's two sides,
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I guess, two, two packs within that, that environment. Uh, only half of them, I think
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are truly accessible to the conservatives. Those are the PPC folks. And at the end of the day,
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the number of reasons that those people have to dislike Trudeau go so far beyond, uh, anything
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related to, uh, to pandemic measures or vaccine mandates, et cetera, like they're unhappy with
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the Trudeau government on a whole range of issues. And that's only one of them. And that's one that's
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sort of in the rear view mirror in my view. Um, so I, I, I don't think that I expect it'll be
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talked about, uh, you know, it's obvious there'll be resolutions on it. We'll see where, where the party
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goes, but I, I would be really surprised if you saw that as a central plank in, uh, in, uh, election
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platform by polio. Oh, me, me as well. Um, but I want, I want to get your insight on your decision
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in the 2022 election in Ontario to say, we're not going to relitigate COVID. I think you,
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your attitude was basically, and this is watching from the outside. Don't talk about the pandemic.
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It's over. It's move on. And I remember going to, you know, one of these panels at the Albany club
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after the election and all the parties had representatives there and the liberal and new
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Democrat representatives both said they made a mistake talking about the pandemic. They made a
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mistake bringing up masking. And, uh, they said people recoiled. They just wanted to not talk about
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it. So when I look at Danielle Smith's election win in Alberta, she was trying to relitigate the
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pandemic. And then when she stopped and switched to other issues, she won. So what would your advice
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be to, uh, to Polly have been those people who think that, no, we need to fight on this.
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Well, it would be, you gotta, you know, you can't major in the minors. Like you've gotta,
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you gotta be on the big issues that affect everyone. And you want to be focused on the things that
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are, um, of the greatest relevance to the greatest number of people. And right now that's,
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that's clearly around cost of living issues. Uh, that's, that's where, you know, a lot of
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Canadians are feeling pain and, and suffering from, you know, economic anxiety. It's, it's worrying
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about, oh, my, you know, my mortgage is going to have to be renewed in a year or two years.
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And I'm not sure whether I can afford it based on today's interest rates. Like those are,
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those are the issues that I think really are, are going to affect the most people. And you want to be
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focused on those. Um, you know, that said, uh, I don't believe that there should be topics that
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you can't talk about. And, uh, you know, so, you know, we'll have a debate about it, but,
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you know, at the end of the day, you want to be focused on the things that are going to touch
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the lives of the greatest number of people. Every party has these things around their
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policy conventions. Uh, I think the last one, the liberals, um, voted for a policy that said, uh,
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uh, jail journalists who, um, use, uh, unnamed sources or, or prosecute, maybe, maybe they'd
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all be in jail. We'd all be in jail. Uh, as somebody who's been an unnamed source,
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I hope they're not going to throw us in prison too. Uh, I, I, I, I perhaps use unnamed sources
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on a regular basis. Yes. Yeah. Well, I think, I think it's a staple of, uh, journalism everywhere.
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So, yeah. So they had that. I remember the green party once having a, uh, a policy, uh, debate on,
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um, endorsing polyamorous relationships, uh, and, you know, and these are things that
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make people on the outside scratch. They have a lot more fun conventions, I'm guessing,
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if they're debating that stuff, but, um, but, but in the grand scheme of things,
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you know, there'll, there'll be some stories about something that somebody deems controversial,
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but unless it's in the platform, does it matter? I don't think it matters. Uh, I don't think it
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matters. Uh, I think it's an opportunity to, uh, to, to rally the troops. I think it's an
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opportunity to get some energy. Um, you know, going into a convention when your numbers are
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up, like poly-ups are right now is it, it, it's kind of like shooting pucks in an open net though,
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in terms of, um, uh, maintaining a level of excitement, you know, uh, what motivates
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political parties more than anything else is winning. They really like to win.
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It's sort of the purpose of the whole endeavor at the end of the day.
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I hear it brings about discipline too. Yeah, it does. You know, there's nothing like a little
00:20:47.220
bit of success to, uh, put some steam in everyone's stride. And so I, I expect it's,
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it's going to be a pretty, uh, pretty raucous gathering. And, um, uh, and I think it's important
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that they're doing it in Quebec city because you've seen, uh, uh, you've seen the numbers go up for
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Polyev. Uh, he speaks French fluently. Uh, and, uh, uh, I, I think, you know, there could be an
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opportunity to do better in Quebec than, than anybody anticipated. I don't think you need Quebec
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to win a majority government. You know, certainly our friend, Jenny Byrne and, uh, and our, and
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Prime Minister Harper demonstrated that, uh, in 2011, you can win a majority government in Canada
00:21:28.980
without a significant support in Quebec, but it sure makes it a hell of a lot easier if you do
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have some. And if you could go from, you know, 10 seats, which is kind of around where the conservative
00:21:38.660
party base is in the province now to something like 20, boy, oh boy, does a majority government
00:21:43.060
get easier to do. Absolutely. I want to talk to you about Quebec and trying to put too much focus
00:21:49.140
on Quebec as the party has done in previous elections, maybe, maybe the last two, uh, but also,
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uh, want to talk to you about, uh, those elusive swing voters, those suburban moms that I guess
00:22:01.540
back in the Clinton days, we used to call them soccer moms. I don't know what we're calling them
00:22:05.140
now. We'll talk about that after this break. Did you lock the front door? Check. Close the garage
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slash total security to learn more. Conditions apply. Winning a majority government, that is
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obviously the goal, but how does Pierre Polyev do that? And are you surprised that we're even talking
00:22:45.700
about that? Corey, tonight, um, a couple months ago, people would have said, you know,
00:22:52.740
if Pierre Polyev wins, if the Conservatives win, it'll be a minority, maybe even a weak minority.
00:22:58.020
Yeah. Now on the cusp of a majority, if not outright there, it, you know, would depend on a lot of
00:23:03.780
factors, including regional ones. But let's talk about what you were mentioning just a minute ago about
00:23:10.100
Quebec. Um, it, Stephen Harper won without significant support. He, he went up in Quebec
00:23:17.700
in 2011, but not hugely. He, you know, he's bounced between, in those days, I think it was between 10
00:23:22.500
and 14 seats in his time. And they're at about 10 now. Um, but before every election, along comes
00:23:30.420
somebody whispering sweet nothings to Joël Denis Belavance, our friend at La Presse, great journalist on the
00:23:35.940
hill. Uh, and it's, Ooh, conservatives think they can win 25 seats in Quebec. And there's always a
00:23:42.260
section of the party that wants to push Quebec issues. And, you know, I, I look at, um, the last
00:23:49.380
two elections around the, uh, was it bill 21 in Quebec, the anti-religious symbols. If either Andrew
00:23:56.660
Scheer or Aaron O'Toole had come out against that and campaigned in the 905 and the lower mainland
00:24:02.500
against that, you know, he would have, they would have picked up significant seats, you know, but
00:24:06.500
they, they were, and the people around them were convinced we're going to win big in Quebec.
00:24:11.700
How do you manage that? The, the lure of, you know, Diefenbaker is what 57 seats, right? Uh, against the
00:24:19.220
reality that it's not going to happen. Yeah. Well, and then even in Diefenbaker's
00:24:25.060
basis is really in our kind of one lease program, uh, from, uh, Duplessis. So I, I, I, I think you
00:24:32.580
need to maintain coherence in terms of what you're talking about. Um, the idea that you can run a
00:24:37.300
separate campaign in Quebec as a theory that, uh, has, uh, a long track record of failure in terms
00:24:45.700
of conservative politics and conservative leaders. So I think you want to, you know, you want to maintain
00:24:51.540
that, that focus on the economy, uh, interest rates and cost of living issues are as, as acute in Quebec
00:24:57.700
as they are everywhere else. Uh, I think you see a little bit of, uh, uh, a better housing situation
00:25:05.300
in terms of housing affordability in the province. And so those issues are, are a little less acute
00:25:09.860
there than they are in the GTA and the GVA. Um, but, uh, but there's still issues, right? So I, I think
00:25:18.260
you just want to maintain your focus. I think you want to have a coherent campaign that, uh, is really
00:25:23.220
coast, coast, coast, uh, and, uh, and not, uh, you know, uh, as you say, uh, do things that are going
00:25:30.340
to harm you in other parts of the country, uh, in a, in a vain effort to, to try to, to win votes in Quebec.
00:25:37.220
Quebecers have a long history of, of, um, being a bit, uh, contradictory in terms of some of the,
00:25:45.940
the, the, the governments and, and ideologies that, that they support. You know, so you had,
00:25:50.980
uh, the PQ, uh, winning big majorities provincially at the same time that Pierre Trudeau was winning big
00:25:57.300
federal liberal, uh, majorities and with the same electorate. So, you know, uh, I don't think you have
00:26:02.900
to, um, uh, parrot Legault in order to, uh, be politically successful there. Uh, you know,
00:26:11.860
parody in Legault could hurt you in other parts of the country. Well, particularly, uh, with some
00:26:18.020
new Canadians, there's, you know, there's a vein of xenophobia in Quebec politics and Legault
00:26:23.540
has certainly tapped into that in a, in a significant way. Um, but the consensus around
00:26:29.300
immigration in the rest of the country is very different than, than what it is in Quebec. And,
00:26:33.300
and I would say, um, you know, if you were to take a Legault approach at a national level here, I, I would
00:26:41.620
have a lot of difficulty seeing, uh, you'd be able to, to, to, to win seats that you need to in the,
00:26:47.780
in the GTA and the GDA. It's, that approach is just a non-starter, um, uh, because you have, you
00:26:54.420
have huge, uh, new Canadian populations in those cities and, uh, you know, they don't, uh, they
00:27:06.020
um, do we still have a consensus or is there a potential for the consensus to fray a bit? Um,
00:27:13.540
especially around the housing crisis, the liberals went very quickly in the space of about two weeks
00:27:20.020
from saying, you know, any connection that you want to make between the housing crisis
00:27:24.900
and immigration is racist to, holy crap, who let 900,000 foreign students in? Right. Um,
00:27:31.620
well, they did is the answer. Um, so it's, and, um, uh, you know, was speaking with, uh, you know,
00:27:40.100
our mutual friend, Warren Kinsella earlier, and he was on jazz Joe, uh, Joe Hall's show in Vancouver.
00:27:46.420
And jazz was asking him, isn't it time that we paused immigration and shut things down due to the
00:27:51.460
housing crisis? So it, well, it's to be a, a bigger concern. Here's the challenge. Uh, the biggest
00:27:58.500
throttle on our economy and our economic growth right now, including building housing is a lack
00:28:03.780
of workers, you know, in the province of Ontario right now, we still have about 400,000 job vacancies
00:28:08.740
with, with no one, no applicants. And about a third of those, so both, uh, sorry, a little less
00:28:15.940
than that, but a hundred thousand of them would be in their healthcare space. So these are, uh,
00:28:19.460
personal support workers, PSWs, as they say, uh, nurses, uh, uh, people in that healthcare space,
00:28:26.020
uh, lab techs, et cetera. Uh, but 300,000 of them are in skilled trades. These are, uh, folks who are
00:28:33.540
going to be swinging hammers and pouring concrete. Uh, like these are the folks that are actually
00:28:38.900
required to build housing. And when you look at housing affordability and housing construction costs,
00:28:44.180
labor costs have gone vertical because we're so short workers. So, you know, I, I don't think that
00:28:50.580
you can get to where we need to go economically and including on, on, on housing construction,
00:28:56.580
uh, without significant immigration, the challenge is to try to keep pace and, or do we need to
00:29:05.940
change the focus of what the immigration is? I mean, 900,000, uh, foreign students in a year
00:29:13.460
is primarily putting a strain on rentals. Rentals. Yeah. Rentals in specific markets and Mike Moffitt,
00:29:21.620
who's 11,000 of those, uh, are in Ontario and, uh, overwhelmingly in the GTA. So and some out in
00:29:30.100
London and Mike Moffitt, the, um, economist researcher very much on the liberal side of things,
00:29:36.260
but he's done a, he's done chart showing that the areas with the largest numbers have the rental crunch.
00:29:42.580
So, uh, how do you balance that to try and use the rental crunch, but not leave these schools
00:29:50.660
without what's become an important source of income for them? Well, there are other,
00:29:53.780
other things that you can do in terms of funding in universities. That's not the only way. Although
00:29:58.660
you gotta say that, you know, the, the bringing students into Canada is something that has worked
00:30:04.100
out really well for us in terms of foreign students. It's one of the ways that we, uh, that, that we fill
00:30:09.940
that, that vacancy in our economy in terms of the lack of workers, you know, we have very generous
00:30:15.300
entitlement programs and, and pension plans, et cetera, et cetera. But, you know, when you go from,
00:30:20.660
you know, 15 people working for every one retired person to six people working for every one retired
00:30:25.940
person, uh, that's a lot of, a lot of those things become very difficult to maintain. So,
00:30:30.660
you know, we, and, and you can look at other countries in the world that are having huge
00:30:34.660
demographic problems right now, like China being one, um, uh, you don't want to be in that position.
00:30:40.500
You know, you had stagnation in the Japanese economy for, for two decades as a result of a
00:30:46.260
similar effect. So, you know, I don't think immigration's the issue. I think it's, it's essential
00:30:51.460
that we do it, but there is, you know, it's incumbent on the federal government to, to participate
00:30:57.300
in solving some of these problems. And I think that this is another space where, uh, they've
00:31:02.980
really ceded the field to, to Polyab. Uh, you know, they, they're coming to realize now that
00:31:08.260
housing's an issue. Well, housing's been an issue for a long time. They just haven't been talking
00:31:12.020
about it and they haven't been doing anything on it. So, um, you know, if you're going to let in
00:31:16.180
900,000 students, that's not the end of the world. Uh, but did you do anything to provide
00:31:22.740
housing support? You know, uh, there's nothing saying that the federal government couldn't build,
00:31:28.020
uh, uh, residences or, uh, for foreign students and provide the funding to universities to do that.
00:31:34.740
So, you know, you've got the guys who are controlling the immigration lever, uh, in some
00:31:39.220
of these areas that have advocated their responsibility to, to, to have a plan on the
00:31:43.700
housing side. So, you know, it's the immigration, the former immigration minister is now the housing
00:31:48.420
minister and saying how this happened. Yeah, exactly. Right. Uh, so it, you know, it, it,
00:31:54.500
at a certain point, it looks like incompetence, right. And, and that's another narrative that
00:32:00.260
if we're talking about the pebbles in the backpack analogy, those, those confidence issues are, are the
00:32:05.300
things that I think are, have been flagging the government in a number of areas. Uh, and, uh,
00:32:10.980
and they're cumulative. So, and this is just another one where it looks like they were, you know,
00:32:14.980
the sleep of the switch. So your advice don't change on immigration. We still need it. So,
00:32:23.300
I mean, we've kind of been hearing that from, from Polyev. It's also immigration is central to
00:32:28.900
the story. One of the things the liberals always try and do is portray conservatives as anti-immigration,
00:32:35.380
uh, which is, you know, they laughable now. Stephen Harper's entire, uh, uh, tenure in office,
00:32:44.820
he was bringing in record numbers of people. Right. And then the liberals came in and said,
00:32:48.980
hold my beer and, and jacked it up even more. So it's, but Pierre's personal story. Right. Is
00:32:56.020
one of immigration, uh, through his wife, Anna, uh, those personal stories, you know, some liberals are
00:33:02.900
being very critical that she's out there all the time. It's like, they're suddenly upset that
00:33:07.860
politicians have spouses because the PM just recently announced a separation. Yeah. Um,
00:33:15.780
it's, it's an odd thing. I, and I'm not going to pick on Justin Crudeau. Yeah. Well,
00:33:20.020
separation or his personal life. That's, that's not the point, but, um, do those personal stories of,
00:33:27.540
work for Pierre in terms of his wife, his two school teachers being adopted, all of that?
00:33:33.860
Yeah. I, I think, um, I think they do help. I think, I think his wife is a, is, is a great asset.
00:33:39.940
And, uh, I look to, uh, uh, the night of his leadership victory, um, her speech was incredibly
00:33:46.340
compelling. And, uh, I think her participation in the tour this summer is, has, has been very positive
00:33:53.140
in terms of, uh, um, softening of image, uh, with, uh, with female voters in particular. Um,
00:34:01.380
but I also think the advertising campaign, uh, involving her and voiced by her, uh, is, uh, you
00:34:08.020
know, has, has landed well, you know, and you're, you're seeing the upshot of that. I think if we,
00:34:14.020
if we were to fast forward to after the next election, I think, uh, and do some analysis on where
00:34:19.460
things went wrong with the liberal party, irrespective of what the, the, the, uh, outcome
00:34:23.620
of that election is, I think there'll be a lot of criticism of their decision not to do, uh, attack
00:34:30.100
ads very early on in, uh, uh, Polioff's, uh, uh, after Polioff's ascension to the leadership.
00:34:40.100
I, I, I would have had them running on September 11th. Right. You know, and, and if you look at,
00:34:45.060
uh, successful campaigns of the Harper era, that was a critical component. The, uh, defining of
00:34:52.740
Stefan Dion, the defining of Michael Ignatius, uh, and there was an attempt to do it with, with Trudeau as
00:34:59.220
well. A lot more difficult in the case of Trudeau because he, uh, was a household name. You know,
00:35:04.980
he was as well-known as the prime minister was. Um, same was not true for Stefan Dion and, uh,
00:35:11.940
Michael Ignatius. So he was a lot harder to do that on, but they would have had that opportunity
00:35:16.260
with Polioff and they chose not to do it. I assume that part of that is, is their fundraising issues.
00:35:21.700
They, uh, clearly being out-fundraised by the Conservatives by a huge margin.
00:35:27.140
And there's some time now. Yeah. For some time now. So I imagine there's some resource
00:35:30.900
issues, uh, uh, there that are probably part of the answer on that, but that doesn't explain the
00:35:36.100
complete lack of an attempt to do so. And I think, um, the annals of history will record that that was
00:35:41.540
a major campaign error. I swear that, and this is not being mean to, uh, to Pierre, but I could have
00:35:51.380
written those attack ads. Yeah, sure. It's, you know, he, he's someone who's been in politics a long
00:35:56.500
time. He has a record. And if you're in the politics of the public eye, you're going to say things or do
00:36:00.740
things that will annoy some people. And these ad campaigns are often just an, an attempt to remind
00:36:08.260
people and, and, and still gobsmacked. They, they didn't do that. Um, so let's talk about the,
00:36:15.300
the image rebranding that the glasses and, um, someone at work was saying to me out when, um,
00:36:21.860
he started wearing the t-shirts that, wow, Pierre is jacked. Yeah. And I said, very good guy.
00:36:27.540
Well, he has been for a long time. And I told them, like, you know, he and I lived near each
00:36:32.740
other when I was in Ottawa, we were both in the South end and I'd run into him at a local gym.
00:36:37.860
And I said, obviously he kept going and I stopped. He's, he's been in shape for a long time. Uh, so
00:36:47.460
does that like, how, how does that play into it? Is, is that a big issue when you're running the
00:36:53.060
campaign like, like you've done? Yeah. Well, look, it, it, it can be a barrier if, uh,
00:37:01.300
you know, those image things can be a barrier, uh, between you and voters sometimes like if,
00:37:05.780
you know, uh, you know, if you're, you're wearing three piece suits all the time, uh, it's hard to
00:37:12.260
look like you're, uh, a common guy. Right. So there's, yeah, exactly. He's well, you know,
00:37:18.180
we trade Rolexes on, uh, on the plane, uh, once in a while, kind of like swatches. Uh, uh, yeah,
00:37:24.020
like, but, but look, like, I, I think, I think to use that example, I think, uh, uh, Jagmeet's, um,
00:37:31.220
uh, image and his choices around how he dresses and presents himself do create a barrier between him
00:37:37.140
and some of, uh, the NDP voters, uh, they don't really see themselves in, uh, in that context. So,
00:37:44.660
um, you know, I, I think it's important, but I think it can be overstated. I don't think his image
00:37:49.780
was particularly poor before, and I don't think this, you know, makeover, so to speak is, is,
00:37:54.660
is really what's driving it. Um, I think the advertising campaign where you're humanizing him
00:38:00.500
and where he's talking about his family and talking about his kids and, and, uh, being relatable in that
00:38:05.620
way, I think that, that's where the image stuff is, has, uh, is really important and, and where
00:38:11.220
they've had some big success, but in glasses, no glasses, I, I think today, I don't think that's
00:38:16.260
really what the issue is. The politics is often emotional as opposed to rational. Right. And so
00:38:23.860
where do you find that balance? He's got to, he's got to find those suburban mothers in
00:38:30.100
Markham, in Langley, uh, in the GTA and the GVA who have the, the last two elections,
00:38:39.620
whether they held their nose or didn't voted for Trudeau as others were leaving them.
00:38:43.940
We know that suburban women have been the ones that put Trudeau over the edge. And we saw the last
00:38:49.940
campaign. He, he campaigned in British Columbia and Ontario against Alberta's COVID policies.
00:38:56.740
Right. Right. Uh, so how does Pierre reach those, those voters? And in, in this context,
00:39:05.620
because every time I say you've got to bring over swing voters, there's, you know, somebody in the
00:39:09.940
conservative milieu will say, well, I don't want to be a liberal. Why do we appeal to them? Because
00:39:15.380
you need voters from all over. So, but how do you do it without alienating?
00:39:19.220
Yeah. Well, I think it's, it's sticking on, on those, those big macro, um, economic messages that,
00:39:27.620
that he's had such success with. And, uh, um, uh, I think carbon tax continues to be a huge winner for
00:39:35.300
them. Uh, you know, you long gone are the days where I think the liberals can get away with saying,
00:39:41.540
if you don't support a carbon tax, you don't care about climate change. Uh, you know, all,
00:39:45.780
all the public opinion research I've seen does not support that narrative. Uh, and in part,
00:39:51.140
because they look to the south of the border and, and they see Biden, you know, getting rounds of
00:39:57.700
applause on his, uh, approach on climate change. And, and, you know, it doesn't include a carbon tax.
00:40:03.140
So it's, uh, uh, I think they, they, and their emissions have gone down.
00:40:08.420
And they're gone down way more. So, uh, you know, I, I think there's a lot there that appeals to those
00:40:16.820
soccer moms you're talking about and staying on those messages is, is great. Uh, you know, you,
00:40:24.100
you don't want to have in the window all of the, uh, the sort of minor issues that we're talking about
00:40:29.620
that, uh, that'll be part of the convention. Uh, you know, but you don't want to have those as
00:40:34.980
your main themes of the campaign and, and all evidence would point to, uh, the conservatives,
00:40:46.340
Does Pierre Polyev, um, increasing in support hurt your guy?
00:40:53.220
Does it hurt Doug Ford? Do you believe in this alternation theory of politics in Ontario?
00:40:57.620
I think it's superstition more than it is reality. Um, uh, you tend like, I'll give you a much better
00:41:05.940
explanation for why, uh, you've seen that. And it's not that people want to have a liberal
00:41:10.900
government federally and a conservative provincially, and then flip around. It's what we're talking about
00:41:15.700
around the longevity of governments. Like it's, it's very, it's very hard to, uh, stay in government
00:41:22.500
past two terms or like two full terms federally. Uh, we've had three minority governments and more of
00:41:28.260
those. Uh, um, but yeah, you know, once you're, you're up, you know, pushing a decade in power,
00:41:34.420
it's pretty hard to stay. Uh, if you look at, um, just the past hundred years of elections federally,
00:41:43.940
provincially, you tend to get one more term. Uh, you, you know, you see a lot more examples of, of,
00:41:49.940
of three, uh, governments in a row. So if you think of, you know, the McGuinty two terms,
00:41:55.780
and then one with wind, uh, uh, you know, you, you can see a change after two as well, but you know,
00:42:02.500
there are many, many, many examples of three terms and in some smaller provinces, uh, you know, those,
00:42:07.780
those can be five or six terms. Like you're looking at provinces like Saskatchewan or, uh, or Alberta.
00:42:14.020
So, uh, I don't think it makes a big difference. I think it's more about the accumulation
00:42:19.700
of pebbles in your backpack that, that drives that. Uh, and so I think for Ford, it's, uh,
00:42:25.540
you know, he got reelected on, on a, um, on a theme of getting it done, building, you know,
00:42:33.460
it's really a, you know, an act of building, uh, agenda and, uh, coming into the next election,
00:42:40.580
people will look and say, Hey, did you actually get it done or did you not? And, uh, you know,
00:42:45.460
and I think that's really what's it's going to hinge on for, for, for, uh, for the Ford government,
00:42:51.140
uh, less about who's in Ottawa. It, in the 2022 campaign, there was a lot of criticism.
00:42:58.740
I didn't understand the criticism, but a lot of people criticized your get it done, um, slogan
00:43:04.580
saying, well, it's, it doesn't mean anything. And I thought, well, it's actually for politics.
00:43:09.940
And I think I wrote a column about this in the sun. It's actually really good because you applied it
00:43:14.420
to everything. You went around and you say, well, we're going to do a hospital. Well, the largest
00:43:20.260
conservative majority in 80 years in the province of Ontario. So, uh, you know, with all due respect,
00:43:25.060
those who are criticizing it, but Pierre looks like he's copying it with, um, his brain at home,
00:43:31.300
bring it home. Does that work? I think it does. Uh, I, I like bring it home because it, it,
00:43:36.340
it has a connotation around, uh, a reclaiming of, of, uh, uh, of something I think that we've lost.
00:43:44.820
And, and that's part of this middle-class dream, you know, and this is what the housing piece really
00:43:49.380
touches on that, uh, if you work hard and play by the rules as, uh, as the, uh, Stephen Harper slogan
00:43:57.780
was, or a narrative was, uh, there are certain things that you, you expect. There was a kind of a
00:44:03.380
consensus that, you know, you would be able to get a house or a mortgage and, uh, uh, and provide
00:44:10.820
that sort of security for your family. Uh, and you see men and women who have done everything right
00:44:17.300
in terms of building a career and are quite successful. And, and, you know, from an income
00:44:22.420
perspective who home ownership is not a prospect in today's prices, you know, uh, it's very difficult to
00:44:31.140
find housing, uh, in parts of this country, uh, where you're not having to put down a million
00:44:36.660
dollars or more for, for what used to be a house that you could buy for, for a fraction of that.
00:44:42.500
So it, it's really pushed that dream of home ownership and that consensus, uh, out of the reach
00:44:47.060
of, of a broad swath of people, particularly millennials and new Canadians. And, uh, uh, and so saying
00:44:55.380
it, you're going to bring it home that you're going to, you know, you're going to, you know, try to
00:44:58.980
reclaim that, um, uh, that opportunity for the broad swath of, of folks, uh, who are, are, are, uh,
00:45:08.020
middle-class is, is very positive. I think it's a very optimistic message.
00:45:14.260
The, while you and I are talking about all of this, you know, that, uh, by the time the convention's
00:45:19.060
over and between now and the next election, there will be a lot of folks in the media taking shots at
00:45:24.740
Pierre. Yep. Um, you work closely with a lot of people in the media. You get along with people
00:45:31.300
whose, um, outlets may have a very different political view than you, but you've also battled
00:45:37.780
with the media before. You may have started a TV network that I worked at as well, but that's another
00:45:42.580
story. Uh, how to, what would your advice be for Pierre and his team dealing with, uh, a media that
00:45:51.700
I'm not sure we can say they're always giving Trudeau a pass now, but they did for a long time
00:45:58.260
and they'll never give him a pass. So how does he deal with them? Professionally? Uh, I, I think
00:46:05.620
you're always better to, uh, engage than disengage, uh, when it comes to, to comms and media relations.
00:46:13.780
Uh, that doesn't mean that every interview is going to be friendly, that there isn't, uh, there isn't, uh,
00:46:19.140
there's some, uh, you know, evidence of bias, et cetera, in reporting, but the public is pretty
00:46:25.540
sophisticated as you know, um, Ryan about this. They can tell when somebody is stacking the deck,
00:46:32.180
when somebody is working a story, when somebody is overly hostile in an interview. And if you're
00:46:37.700
able to maintain your cool and you're able to, um, uh, continue to, to, to communicate, um,
00:46:45.460
you get a lot of credit from, from people who are actually at home listening and watching.
00:46:49.380
Uh, you're never going to win everybody over, but, uh, you know, it's an opportunity to,
00:46:55.060
to, to, to get your message out and, and you should take all those opportunities if you're
00:46:59.220
running for office. So I, I, I don't think, you know, winning in the media is having friendly
00:47:04.900
interviews and having editorial spin. That's, you know, all in your favor. I think winning in the media
00:47:10.180
is getting your message in front of people. And, uh, people will, uh, uh, will discard the,
00:47:16.340
the bias and the, uh, and the spin, uh, more often than not anyway. Some people will like it and agree
00:47:21.940
with it. Some people will discard it. Uh, but you know, the, the objective is to get your voice heard.
00:47:26.980
Uh, everyone that reads my columns and listens to this podcast agrees with everything I say.
00:47:32.420
I know, I never, I do, but that's just cause we're friends and you're very clear thinking.
00:47:37.220
So I, uh, I, I never get emails from people. Oh yeah. No, nor do I.
00:47:42.260
Corey tonight. Thanks so much. Yeah. Real pleasure.
00:47:45.140
Full comment is a post-media podcast. My name's Brian Lilly, your host. This episode was produced
00:47:49.860
by Andre Prutt with theme music by Bryce Hall. Kevin Libin is the executive producer. You can
00:47:55.220
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00:48:01.060
find us, give us a review, leave a rating and tell your friends and your Aunt May and Whitby all about
00:48:06.580
us. Thanks for listening until next time. I'm Brian Lilly.